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View Full Version : One month in - where do the Red's stand



mu4103
04-30-2011, 02:50 PM
Record: 13-13 - 3rd place - NL Central
Offense: Tied for 6th in hitting (avg.)
Pitching: 12th in the league in ERA
Here was my prediction on the predictions thread.


79-81:
Sorry I think the Reds over-performed last year.

1. I don't think the pitching will hold up.
2. Bruce is being talked about as an MVP candidate. Remember around the All-Star break and for about a month later, some people were calling for him to be benched or sent down. I think he will have a good year, but I don't think he has a proven track record yet.
3. Joey Votto had a career year. He is a legit superstar, but it is not a given he can do that 2 years in a row.
4. The rest of the IF doesn't impress me as standout (I know most would disagree on Phillips).
5. Sorry, I can't see the team winning as long as Johnny Gomes is in LF.
6. Drew Stubbs still has a .330 OBP and hasn't shown much more in the spring.

Expect the Reds to start out slow. I think there will be (and their best hope is) some serious changes around May. I think Bruce will be good in the OF, but Stubbs and Gomes will struggle. Votto should still be solid.

Somebody in the pitching staff really needs to step up and be the ace and a second pitcher is going to need to be right behind him. The bullpen hopefully will be improved, and Chapman could be a major player if the Reds are to repeat or improve. You can't win a Championship without at least 2 standout top-notch pitchers.

I think the team as it is right now is a 79-81 team. If they make some good moves and a couple of guys step up, I could see them in the NLCS and after that, anything is possible. The nice thing for the Reds is they do have some good young talent.

I feel my prediction (from the prediction thread) has been pretty accurate (saves the prediction that Stubbs would have a slow start and Gomes to a lesser extent). I think the Reds need to look at making a couple changes.

To Start:
Even with the return of the DL players,

1. The Reds need to improve their SP. They need at least a #2 caliber SP. Maybe Dontrelle can step up and fill that roll. (He has shown ace stuff in the past) - but I doubt he will. I don't know how they can get the pitching going, but this is obviously a hitting ballclub.

2. Give their youngsters a shot. Look at Heisey and bring up some other youth to shoot some life in the club. (Fred Lewis is not the answer)

3. I think Bruce will improve. Hitting is not the first problem, but it needs to be addressed.

We shall see - the Reds still have a shot - Dusty needs to stop trusting his midnight epiphonies (not sure of spelling though). I think they need to keep it close to St. Louis or whoever is the first place team at the all-star break, as I do not see them as the best team in the division right now. Then they can make another 2nd half run. Joey V. has been awesome and I hope he keeps it up.

Jack Burton
04-30-2011, 03:33 PM
First thing they should do is fire dusty, guy is pretty much clueless. Get a guy in here that knows a thing or two and we blossom. Trim the fat t-bone.

redram
04-30-2011, 03:35 PM
I think your prediction is way off. Considering 2 of our rotation starters have not pitched a single pitch and our starting 3rd baseman is on the DL, AND Brandon Phillips missed several games being only 2 games out to me is encouraging. Once we get these players back I can see us running off a long winning streak. If we don't get them back then your prediction could pan out, but when you made this prediction I am thinking you did so thinking we would have had these players in the mix.

mu4103
04-30-2011, 03:40 PM
I think your prediction is way off. Considering 2 of our rotation starters have not pitched a single pitch and our starting 3rd baseman is on the DL, AND Brandon Phillips missed several games being only 2 games out to me is encouraging. Once we get these players back I can see us running off a long winning streak. If we don't get them back then your prediction could pan out, but when you made this prediction I am thinking you did so thinking we would have had these players in the mix.
Well every major league team has injuries. But, I think I understimated Phillips. At least Joey V. didn't get injured say like Evan Longoria did. I still think the Reds pitching is not what it needs to be, but hopefully when Cueto (3.64 ERA) and Bailey (4.46 ERA )return, they will prove me wrong.

tkemmerer14
04-30-2011, 04:43 PM
Reds record at the end of april last year??? 12 - 11

The sky is not falling, settle down Reds fans

Maker_84
04-30-2011, 04:44 PM
First thing they should do is fire dusty, guy is pretty much clueless. Get a guy in here that knows a thing or two and we blossom. Trim the fat t-bone.

lol, +1. I'd had to say this team as of right now is definately not what anyone expected. I was listening to extra innings last night and one caller made a good point how most contenders made moves in the offseason to become and the Reds just stood pat with the average players they have. They are also not surprised Gomes and Rolen haven't come through because they could see at the end of last year Rolen was slowing down and Gomes had been figured out. Having Gomes in the lineup is awful because he gives us nothing, at least Bruce is decent defensively

Vottomatic
05-01-2011, 07:26 AM
Sure, the sky is not falling. But this team may simply be just a .500 quality team.

The starting pitching was better and more consistent last year. The bullpen seems better.

But you have 3 regular starting outfielders (Gomes, Stubbs, Bruce) batting something like a combined .225. Two of them are now in the 1 and 2 hole and not getting on base for our rbi-guys. One of them is supposed to be an rbi-guy. This was my biggest complaint of the offseason..........not getting a 4-hole hitter. Rolen is not the answer and Gomes is far from the answer. Gomes and Bruce just don't hit enough with RISP. Bruce is actually horrible at it. Rolen should be hitting 5th or 6th when healthy.

The lineups leave something to be desired. Bring up Sappelt and see if he can get on base and help this team score some more runs. Nothing like a breathe of fresh air to pump some life into a team.

I never understood the Hermida experiment. What is it with Dusty and playing the odd guy out? Geez. How 'bout giving Heisey a chance?

Well everyone is predicting big things when Bailey and Cueto come back to the rotation...........so I'll wait and see if the know-it-alls are right.

dubc47834
05-01-2011, 10:26 AM
First thing they should do is fire dusty, guy is pretty much clueless. Get a guy in here that knows a thing or two and we blossom. Trim the fat t-bone.

LOLOL....all Dusty Baker has done since he has been a mananger is WIN. Our team were bottom feeders until he got year. You say it was bound to happen. Well, they had been saying that for a few years, just like Cubbie fans, Wait till next year. I was tired of waiting. Dusty is doing a good job. There are some players that are not performing. Some will, some won't.....EVER. Hiesey is not an everyday player. Look at the spreads between his coming off the bench and starting. The differance is glaring. I want Gomes outa LF as much as the next guy, but who you going to put over there that is a viable option? The pitching has been coming around and since Jay Bruce has been in the 2 hole he bas been better, not a lot, but better. The season isnt even at the 1/4 pole yet and the panic has started. The All-Star break is when I will start worrying.....have a beer panickers...:beerme:

lonewolf371
05-01-2011, 11:00 AM
LOLOL....all Dusty Baker has done since he has been a mananger is WIN. Our team were bottom feeders until he got year. You say it was bound to happen. Well, they had been saying that for a few years, just like Cubbie fans, Wait till next year. I was tired of waiting. Dusty is doing a good job. There are some players that are not performing. Some will, some won't.....EVER. Hiesey is not an everyday player. Look at the spreads between his coming off the bench and starting. The differance is glaring. I want Gomes outa LF as much as the next guy, but who you going to put over there that is a viable option? The pitching has been coming around and since Jay Bruce has been in the 2 hole he bas been better, not a lot, but better. The season isnt even at the 1/4 pole yet and the panic has started. The All-Star break is when I will start worrying.....have a beer panickers...:beerme:
Are you kidding? Firing the manager after the most successful period in the team's last 20 years is the most logical course of action one can think of!

ruREaDy2
05-01-2011, 11:08 AM
I'll bet my house that the Reds don't go 79-81 this year considering they play 162 games in a season. :thumbup:

arkimadee
05-01-2011, 11:10 AM
The Reds are actually worse right now than there record indicates. They should have atleast 3 more losses if you count opening day, the Saturday of the Cards series and the last game of the Milwaukee series. I guess you can even make an argument for last night. They are fortunate. That being said I think the pitching will settle down a little this month with Bailey and Cueto coming back and the offense should pick it up a little. I'm still very concerned about this team. If they go .500 again this month, we could be looking at that trend for the rest of the season.

Stray
05-01-2011, 11:29 AM
We're okay. We have been dealing with quite a few injuries and Jay Bruce hasn't been hitting. We have a good team and a good manager, we're going to win a lot of games this year.

DirtyBaker
05-01-2011, 11:53 AM
I can see the cause for concern but I can also see Bailey and Cueto coming back. Volquez has now had his best two outings. Scott Rolen will be off the DL soon. AND if the marlins and brewers series has taught us anything it that this team doesn't give up.

Jack Burton
05-01-2011, 12:09 PM
We're okay. We have been dealing with quite a few injuries and Jay Bruce hasn't been hitting. We have a good team and a good manager, we're going to win a lot of games this year.

Lol

Stray
05-01-2011, 12:53 PM
Lol

His 1400+ wins and .522 winning percentage speak for itself.

dubc47834
05-01-2011, 12:54 PM
Are you kidding? Firing the manager after the most successful period in the team's last 20 years is the most logical course of action one can think of!

No where in there did I say fire Dusty, I tend to give him the benifit of the doubt. He has been doing it longer than I, LOL. I was just stating that others should try the same based on our history before he got there. :beerme:

Jack Burton
05-01-2011, 01:02 PM
His 1400+ wins and .522 winning percentage speak for itself.

So I take it you'll be upset when he's no longer with the club next season.

Stray
05-01-2011, 01:41 PM
So I take it you'll be upset when he's no longer with the club next season.

Why would he not be here next year?

mu4103
05-01-2011, 03:41 PM
I'll bet my house that the Reds don't go 79-81 this year considering they play 162 games in a season. :thumbup:

Lol ... good catch - I must have been factoring in a natural disaster which would take away 2 games from the schedule. How about 80-82? I think I did my math right that time.

Vottomatic
05-01-2011, 04:06 PM
His 1400+ wins and .522 winning percentage speak for itself.

I probably would have a .530 winning percentage managing the teams Dusty has had. :thumbup:

Stray
05-01-2011, 04:20 PM
I probably would have a .530 winning percentage managing the teams Dusty has had. :thumbup:

You'd win in Chicago? That would be quite the feat.

Seriously though, you can say that about every coach in every sport. At some point you have to give the guy credit or admit that you're aimlessly hating. He didn't stumble into over 1400 wins, that isn't the way it works.

Vottomatic
05-01-2011, 06:19 PM
You'd win in Chicago? That would be quite the feat.

Seriously though, you can say that about every coach in every sport. At some point you have to give the guy credit or admit that you're aimlessly hating. He didn't stumble into over 1400 wins, that isn't the way it works.

I've never questioned any manager's moves in my 46 year lifetime as much as I question Dusty's.

He's had some great teams full of great players. I'm not so sure they wouldn't have won despite him. And I'm not so sure this team isn't winning despite him.

Two gold gloves in the infield and 2 other gold glove caliber infielders and 2 GG caliber outfielders. League MVP at first base. #1 NL offense last year? Much improved starting and relief pitching? Give me a break. This team was built to win big. I don't feel like they win enough with the talent level they have.

jwmann2
05-01-2011, 08:00 PM
This team will be there in October. Cueto and Bailey will bring life into the rotation and we will be able to see guys like Leake and Lecure in the bullpen.

webbbj
05-01-2011, 08:52 PM
[]worried
[x]not worried

Maker_84
05-01-2011, 09:21 PM
This team will be there in October. Cueto and Bailey will bring life into the rotation and we will be able to see guys like Leake and Lecure in the bullpen.

Leake needs 2 remain a starter. Send Wood and Lecure to bullpen or AAA

lonewolf371
05-02-2011, 11:31 AM
No where in there did I say fire Dusty, I tend to give him the benifit of the doubt. He has been doing it longer than I, LOL. I was just stating that others should try the same based on our history before he got there. :beerme:
Of course, I was agreeing with you through sarcasm.

will5979
05-02-2011, 12:50 PM
This team will be there in October. Cueto and Bailey will bring life into the rotation and we will be able to see guys like Leake and Lecure in the bullpen.

I hope you are right, the problem is that everyone else in our division went out in the offseason and got better, we sat on our collective asses and did nothing and now we are paying for it. We had enough depth to cut a deal for Grienke, money could have been found for Werth, our owners have and always will suck when it comes to free agency.

Stray
05-02-2011, 01:47 PM
I've never questioned any manager's moves in my 46 year lifetime as much as I question Dusty's.

He's had some great teams full of great players. I'm not so sure they wouldn't have won despite him. And I'm not so sure this team isn't winning despite him.

Two gold gloves in the infield and 2 other gold glove caliber infielders and 2 GG caliber outfielders. League MVP at first base. #1 NL offense last year? Much improved starting and relief pitching? Give me a break. This team was built to win big. I don't feel like they win enough with the talent level they have.

I see what you're saying and understand why you would think that way, but this question goes for any sport. If you can list off all of the things we do well and say that is why we won, not because of our manager, what exactly can managers get credit for?

Sure we have good players, every winning team does, to get everything to work and keep everyone happy over the course of 162 games/year, the manager has to play a huge role in every aspect of the teams success. He's the leader.

All I'm saying is that if it is indeed fair to point out all of Dusty's faults, and I agree he's not perfect, I think it only makes sense to give him credit for what he's done right. Saying we won in spite of a manager is a bit absurd, especially since it was our first division in what, 15 years? He deserves credit, how much or to what extent, I'm not sure. Fans tend to remember every mistake a manager makes and often times don't even notice a call that works. We're in good hands with Dusty because I get the feeling our guys would run through a wall for him, I like that.

DocRed
05-02-2011, 02:26 PM
His 1400+ wins and .522 winning percentage speak for itself.

His .522 is thanks to the steroid era and Barry Bonds.

DaytonFlyer
05-02-2011, 03:10 PM
The Reds pitching has been awful this year. That's why we're at .500, not because of Dusty's decision making.

Stray
05-02-2011, 03:53 PM
His .522 is thanks to the steroid era and Barry Bonds.

Baseball was full of guys who were cheating. If Bonds was the only guy juicing in that era that would be one thing but they were beating teams full of roid heads.

Kingspoint
05-02-2011, 06:40 PM
My theory on "one month in".

I always put a premium on what happens the last 122 games of the season.

The first 40 games, I'd like the club to be at 20-20 minimum. But, if they aren't, it's not the end of the world. As long as a team takes off from game 41 on, then they've got a great chance of making the post-season.

Obviously, you don't want to dig too deep a hole, and that's why the 20-20 mark is the minimal acceptable number for me after 40 games. What I want is to see them take off sooner.

This club is approaching the 20-20 mark, and are getting close to running out of time to "make their move". I definitely want to see them make it over the next 10 days.

Reds
05-02-2011, 09:42 PM
Minus 3Bmen and SP I'm fine with our .500 record assuming we use May as a jumping point to a good summer.

mu4103
05-02-2011, 10:55 PM
My theory on "one month in".

I always put a premium on what happens the last 122 games of the season.

The first 40 games, I'd like the club to be at 20-20 minimum. But, if they aren't, it's not the end of the world. As long as a team takes off from game 41 on, then they've got a great chance of making the post-season.

Obviously, you don't want to dig too deep a hole, and that's why the 20-20 mark is the minimal acceptable number for me after 40 games. What I want is to see them take off sooner.

This club is approaching the 20-20 mark, and are getting close to running out of time to "make their move". I definitely want to see them make it over the next 10 days.

I agree. I think a great April can do a lot to build a team's confidence, but an average May does not destroy it. It seems, that teams can come out of no where, like the Indians did, and show they are going to be contenders. Vice-versa, the Astros, last year, showed that they were definitely not contenders after the first month.

But your right. I think teams start to seperate themselves over the next month. Heck, the Reds are only a Saturday night ninth inning rally from having the same record as the Pirates.

Vottomatic
05-03-2011, 06:43 AM
My theory on "one month in".

I always put a premium on what happens the last 122 games of the season.

The first 40 games, I'd like the club to be at 20-20 minimum. But, if they aren't, it's not the end of the world. As long as a team takes off from game 41 on, then they've got a great chance of making the post-season.

Obviously, you don't want to dig too deep a hole, and that's why the 20-20 mark is the minimal acceptable number for me after 40 games. What I want is to see them take off sooner.

This club is approaching the 20-20 mark, and are getting close to running out of time to "make their move". I definitely want to see them make it over the next 10 days.

Well I agree, mainly because no team in our division has taken off with a hot huge lead.

Time to kick into gear, I hope.

brm7675
05-03-2011, 11:50 AM
I don't see any team in this division seperating from anyone. this one is going to come down the final weeks....

mu4103
07-09-2011, 04:03 PM
80-82:
Sorry I think the Reds over-performed last year.

1. I don't think the pitching will hold up.
2. Bruce is being talked about as an MVP candidate. Remember around the All-Star break and for about a month later, some people were calling for him to be benched or sent down. I think he will have a good year, but I don't think he has a proven track record yet.
3. Joey Votto had a career year. He is a legit superstar, but it is not a given he can do that 2 years in a row.
4. The rest of the IF doesn't impress me as standout (I know most would disagree on Phillips).
5. Sorry, I can't see the team winning as long as Johnny Gomes is in LF.
6. Drew Stubbs still has a .330 OBP and hasn't shown much more in the spring.

Expect the Reds to start out slow. I think there will be (and their best hope is) some serious changes around May. I think Bruce will be good in the OF, but Stubbs and Gomes will struggle. Votto should still be solid.

Somebody in the pitching staff really needs to step up and be the ace and a second pitcher is going to need to be right behind him. The bullpen hopefully will be improved, and Chapman could be a major player if the Reds are to repeat or improve. You can't win a Championship without at least 2 standout top-notch pitchers.

I think the team as it is right now is a 80-82 team. If they make some good moves and a couple of guys step up, I could see them in the NLCS and after that, anything is possible. The nice thing for the Reds is they do have some good young talent.

I continue to believe my season prediction from the beginning of the year was correct. I think the Reds still have a shot (hopping over 3 teams is not easy - even when you are only 4 games back).
The Reds need to:
1. Corzatt might be a good start.
2. Do something quick they are running out of time. Dusty needs to learn from his mistakes. Heisey/Gomes/Stubbs LF-CF would be an interesting start (Freddie Lewis is an also-ran or should I say an aging veteran who is not what the team needs.) Really Heisey every day in left would provide some stability, but I am biased.
3. To be honest, the pitching has impressed me somewhat, meaning I think some guys have some potential.

DUSTY NEEDS TO LEARN FROM HIS MISTAKES

4. Stubbs needs to see more pine. He seems to play better 5 out of 7 days.

5. The Reds proved to be a good 2nd half team - but they are not on the right path. They need to make some changes. Corzatt is a start. But playing the who got more hits yesterday starts today game in LF is a joke. Talk about inspiring confidence in players.

6. Bring up one of the young catchers just to get more life into the clubhouse.

It is interesting how much of a difference one inning makes. Two days ago was "The Game that Turned around the Season" (we would never know it if it actually was - we would just look back on it). If CoCo doesn't blow the save, then the Reds are on a roll.