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View Full Version : Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?



GOYA
05-05-2011, 07:46 PM
Yeah or nay?

He currently has 21 in Dayton's 28th game.

I vote yes

RedEye
05-05-2011, 07:47 PM
Yeah or nay?

He currently has 21 in Dayton's 28th game.

I vote yes

Yay. I hope he's saving a pair of black gloves for every one, too. :)

Benihana
05-05-2011, 07:49 PM
Yay. I hope he's saving a pair of black gloves for every one, too. :)

Billy Mays Hayes?

dougdirt
05-05-2011, 08:30 PM
I went with no. He will get close, but as the season wears on he will slow it down some.

RedsManRick
05-05-2011, 09:21 PM
What Doug said. He'll slow down as the temps heat up. But still -- that's impressive.

GOYA
05-05-2011, 09:33 PM
Given that Billy's 20 years old, weighs 160 lbs, and is from south central Mississippi, I don't think he's going to get tired or would be much affected by the heat in the Midwest league.

mth123
05-05-2011, 09:37 PM
I don't really care so much. I just want to see him get the rest of his game in order and forget about worrying about the steals. We know he can steal bases. Just where is Esix Snead these days?

The DARK
05-06-2011, 01:04 AM
If he doesn't get 100, it'll be because the season doesn't go as long. He'll be what Juan Pierre used to be in the majors in terms of steals.

davereds24
05-06-2011, 01:12 AM
I don't see it happening. It won't be the heat, but just playing so many games for a kid so young and small is going to wear on him. Even if he can get on base a little more I think 85 would be a solid number. Catchers/pitchers should improve at a much higher rate than Billy's baserunning as the season progresses.

He's a lot different than Pierre though, Billy runs pretty much any time there is a base to be had. I think Juan just had his career high last season, his SB numbers aren't that impressive compared to what you would think they should be with his speed and OBP.

Homer Bailey
05-06-2011, 02:56 AM
I've been asking Ben Badler about this a lot, and he's predicting 80ish. I kind of agree.

Superdude
05-06-2011, 03:12 AM
The old adage you can't steal first will definitely apply here. It's gonna be a tall task when he's barely scratching the .300 mark with his OBP and other teams begin to zero in on slowing down his running game. If he starts putting the bat on the ball a little more and stays healthy, he's got it easy though.


If he doesn't get 100, it'll be because the season doesn't go as long. He'll be what Juan Pierre used to be in the majors in terms of steals.

This is an interesting comment. Hamilton is no doubt extremely fast, but Pierre seems like roughly a best case scenario offensively. Practically everyone on this board would have a cow if we traded for Juan Pierre, but for whatever reason, Hamilton is salivated over. He hasn't shown any hint of power potential and I'm questioning whether or not he'll develop the eye-popping contact skills needed to make up for it. I got excited when BA ranked him over Mesoraco, and I still like him more than most, but I'm really starting to question the hype.

membengal
05-06-2011, 06:04 AM
Pretty sure a part of that, mth, is Pierre is an OF while Hamilton plays SS. That kind of skillset at SS is of interest, at least to me.

OesterPoster
05-06-2011, 09:44 AM
I'd say 'yes', but only if you could steal first base.

I'm going with 'no'.

GOYA
05-06-2011, 10:17 AM
Billy has 21 steals and 21 hits. One of his hits is a HR

Sea Ray
05-06-2011, 10:53 AM
Sure he could get to 100 but why would we want him to? That's a ton of wear and tear on his body and it's pointless to expend that much physical capital in A Ball. I don't understand why he's running as much as he is, to be frank. I hope they put the brakes on his stealing soon

RiverRat13
05-06-2011, 02:09 PM
Sure he could get to 100 but why would we want him to? That's a ton of wear and tear on his body and it's pointless to expend that much physical capital in A Ball. I don't understand why he's running as much as he is, to be frank. I hope they put the brakes on his stealing soon


A 90 foot sprint is wear and tear?

medford
05-06-2011, 02:53 PM
A 90 foot sprint is wear and tear?

I guess its more the wear and tear on all that sliding.

Superdude
05-06-2011, 03:07 PM
Yea I don't get the "he'll slow down" and "wear and tear" comments. The guy played wide receiver, so he's probably sprinting on every play all the way through high school. I doubt stealing a base or two a night is overly shocking to his system.

Sea Ray
05-06-2011, 04:15 PM
A 90 foot sprint is wear and tear?

Do you really think it's not hard on your body to steal bases? I could find you all kinds of examples but here's one to get you started:


Bet you didn't know that only two shortstops in the entire modern era ever stole more bases in a season than Reyes has stolen already (career high: 64, last season). One is Wills (104 in 1962, and 94 in '65). The other: Would you believe Frank Taveras (70, in 1977)? But that's it.
Think that's a coincidence? Guess again.

"I don't think he's going to steal 100, because of the position he plays and the way he plays," said Rollins, whose own career high is 46 stolen bases, in 2001. "That's a lot you're asking your body to handle."

Rollins attempted 54 steals in 2001, at age 22. Only once, in the five seasons since, has he even been within 10 attempts of that -- and not by accident. The pounding took too much of a toll on his legs, he said, and he needs those legs to play shortstop the way it's supposed to be played.http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2858489

Sea Ray
05-06-2011, 04:18 PM
Yea I don't get the "he'll slow down" and "wear and tear" comments. The guy played wide receiver, so he's probably sprinting on every play all the way through high school. I doubt stealing a base or two a night is overly shocking to his system.

There's a reason why guys who steal 100 bases don't do it every year. Everytime you slide you also take a chance on breaking ankle or twisting something. It's common knowledge that stealing bases is tough physically especially for a 160 lb guy.

To say what you did reminds me of a famous football coach who was asked if he was giving his RB too many carries. After taking a couple puffs of his pipe he replied "Hell, that ball ain't heavy."

Superdude
05-06-2011, 04:57 PM
Not claiming to be an authority on the subject and I could be way off, but it just seems like outside of fluke sliding injuries, running under 30 yards is something a trained 20 year old athlete shouldn't have a problem recovering from. Not trying to argue, just seems like an odd concept considering that baseball players, even base stealers, are running significantly less than other athletes.

dougdirt
05-06-2011, 05:14 PM
Not claiming to be an authority on the subject and I could be way off, but it just seems like outside of fluke sliding injuries, running under 30 yards is something a trained 20 year old athlete shouldn't have a problem recovering from. Not trying to argue, just seems like an odd concept considering that baseball players, even base stealers, are running significantly less than other athletes.

It isn't just the running, it is also the sliding. Other athletes might run more, but he is sliding a lot more.

RiverRat13
05-06-2011, 05:54 PM
So what's the "acceptable" number of stolen bases one can accumulate without the wear and tear?

Superdude
05-06-2011, 06:59 PM
It isn't just the running, it is also the sliding. Other athletes might run more, but he is sliding a lot more.

I don't recall sliding being a strenuous activity. This is obviously over my head and Jimmy Rollins must know something, but that just doesn't make any sense to me.

davereds24
05-06-2011, 08:10 PM
Not claiming to be an authority on the subject and I could be way off, but it just seems like outside of fluke sliding injuries, running under 30 yards is something a trained 20 year old athlete shouldn't have a problem recovering from. Not trying to argue, just seems like an odd concept considering that baseball players, even base stealers, are running significantly less than other athletes.

He's also not sprinting straight forward, that initial turn to the right is hard on the lower body over time. You also have to account for all the times he dives back into first and tries to steal on foul balls, walks, fly outs, etc.

REDblooded
05-06-2011, 11:37 PM
This is an interesting comment. Hamilton is no doubt extremely fast, but Pierre seems like roughly a best case scenario offensively. Practically everyone on this board would have a cow if we traded for Juan Pierre, but for whatever reason, Hamilton is salivated over.

Hamilton is still INCREDIBLY raw. His inadequacies outside of power can be overcome by hard work and time around the game. However, what he excels in, anybody not born with it can not learn it...

As for the Juan Pierre comparison, there's a VAST difference between a speedy shortstop with a good to strong arm vs. a speedy OF'r with a terrible arm...

Blitz Dorsey
05-07-2011, 12:23 AM
Hopefully someone that knows what they're doing is working with him EVERY DAY on bunting. If Hamilton can become a good bunter, he will be a dangerous MLB player. If not, I'm not sold.

Superdude
05-07-2011, 12:28 AM
Hamilton is still INCREDIBLY raw. His inadequacies outside of power can be overcome by hard work and time around the game. However, what he excels in, anybody not born with it can not learn it...

As for the Juan Pierre comparison, there's a VAST difference between a speedy shortstop with a good to strong arm vs. a speedy OF'r with a terrible arm...

I’m just wondering if he’s just a useful, light hitting infielder instead of a dynamic cornerstone type guy. It's a real tough road cultivating an offensive game with nothing but speed and contact ability. I don’t see how he becomes a good/great offensive player without first developing an absolutely phenomenal ability to put the bat on the ball. A major league pitcher's going to do whatever it takes to not walk a guy with lightning speed and next to no power.

Right now, Hamilton’s striking out almost 30% of the time. That’s Adam Dunn territory. I understand that he’s far from polished and will definitely improve, but a baseline like that doesn’t instill a whole lot of confidence that he’ll be able to put up the kind of contact rates he’ll need at the major league level.

REDblooded
05-07-2011, 01:41 AM
Iím just wondering if heís just a useful, light hitting infielder instead of a dynamic cornerstone type guy. It's a real tough road cultivating an offensive game with nothing but speed and contact ability. I donít see how he becomes a good/great offensive player without first developing an absolutely phenomenal ability to put the bat on the ball. A major league pitcher's going to do whatever it takes to not walk a guy with lightning speed and next to no power.

Right now, Hamiltonís striking out almost 30% of the time. Thatís Adam Dunn territory. I understand that heís far from polished and will definitely improve, but a baseline like that doesnít instill a whole lot of confidence that heíll be able to put up the kind of contact rates heíll need at the major league level.

The guy is young, didn't play against much top-flight competition in HS, and has been switch hitting for 2 seasons...

Of course he has to make better contact. Clearly. But to even remotely consider writing him off at this point in the very early stages of his development is unfair. Obviously the Reds didn't see him as an instant gratification type of player or they never would have forced him to work on switch-hitting. That same approach by Cleveland is what netted the Reds Brandon Phillips for Jeff Stevens...

Again. Look at the splits. He has 65 AB's against RHP presumably all while batting left handed, which isn't his natural approach. In 65 ab's, he's hitting .169 with a .250 OBP against LHP while batting right handed he's hitting .286 with a .359 OBP in 35 AB's...

Give him another year or two, follow his development against RHP, and then begin to form an opinion on his ability to make consistent contact. It's too early to do otherwise.

dougdirt
05-07-2011, 01:47 AM
Hamilton is still INCREDIBLY raw. His inadequacies outside of power can be overcome by hard work and time around the game. However, what he excels in, anybody not born with it can not learn it...

As for the Juan Pierre comparison, there's a VAST difference between a speedy shortstop with a good to strong arm vs. a speedy OF'r with a terrible arm...

Then there is also the fact that Juan Pierre has incredible contact rates, while Hamilton has been average at best in the past and poor this season.

Superdude
05-07-2011, 03:28 AM
The guy is young, didn't play against much top-flight competition in HS, and has been switch hitting for 2 seasons...

Of course he has to make better contact. Clearly. But to even remotely consider writing him off at this point in the very early stages of his development is unfair. Obviously the Reds didn't see him as an instant gratification type of player or they never would have forced him to work on switch-hitting. That same approach by Cleveland is what netted the Reds Brandon Phillips for Jeff Stevens...

Again. Look at the splits. He has 65 AB's against RHP presumably all while batting left handed, which isn't his natural approach. In 65 ab's, he's hitting .169 with a .250 OBP against LHP while batting right handed he's hitting .286 with a .359 OBP in 35 AB's...

Give him another year or two, follow his development against RHP, and then begin to form an opinion on his ability to make consistent contact. It's too early to do otherwise.

Juan Pierre's career strikeout rate is 6.2%, and even with that, his overall offensive production hasn't been anything to gush over. It's REALLY hard to be productive without power.

As I said, I would be shocked if Hamilton continued to strikeout 30% of the time given his age and relative inexperience, but I feel like prospects who go onto become elite contact type hitters have a certain level of hand-eye coordination to begin with. So far in his pro career, he just hasn't shown that at all.

I'm not writing him off though. If he can just hold his own with the bat, his defensive value alone(with more consistency) could make him pretty valuable at shortstop

dougdirt
05-07-2011, 01:56 PM
Juan Pierre's career strikeout rate is 6.2%, and even with that, his overall offensive production hasn't been anything to gush over. It's REALLY hard to be productive without power.

As I said, I would be shocked if Hamilton continued to strikeout 30% of the time given his age and relative inexperience, but I feel like prospects who go onto become elite contact type hitters have a certain level of hand-eye coordination to begin with. So far in his pro career, he just hasn't shown that at all.

I'm not writing him off though. If he can just hold his own with the bat, his defensive value alone(with more consistency) could make him pretty valuable at shortstop

I don't think Hamilton ever becomes an elite contact hitter, but I think he could become a stronger contact hitter than he has been this season and maybe even get into that 15% range (K/PA). One thing to note is that while he does have a solid walk rate, he is often fooled on what pitch is coming to the plate, leaving him lunging forward at the ball more than you would like to see. Pitch recognition is going to need to improve for him to get there. When Hamilton can keep his weight back, he can show some good gap power from both sides of the plate (much like Didi Gregorius who also gets on his front foot more often than you would like to see, but has solid pop when he keeps his weight back).

Superdude
05-07-2011, 02:57 PM
Even if he cuts his strikeout rate in half, he's still likely to struggle. If you give him 500AB, a 15% K/AB, a .300BABIP, and say 5 home runs; Hamilton's barely cracking .260 with the batting average.

I like Hamilton, but there's a sort of "star in the making" aura around him(probably BA's fault) that just seems very unlikely to happen from where I sit.

dougdirt
05-07-2011, 03:08 PM
Even if he cuts his strikeout rate in half, he's still likely to struggle. If you give him 500AB, a 15% K/AB, a .300BABIP, and say 5 home runs; Hamilton's barely cracking .260 with the batting average.

I like Hamilton, but there's a sort of "star in the making" aura around him(probably BA's fault) that just seems very unlikely to happen from where I sit.

The odds of Hamilton having a .300 BABIP is pretty unlikely. Even with weak contact it would surprise me. He is that fast.

JKam
05-08-2011, 03:18 PM
I guess its more the wear and tear on all that sliding.

I understand there is a risk of injury when you slide.

But then I started thinking about it more. Starting running backs in college and professional levels routinely get more than 100 carries a season - the best get 200 or more carries - and a good proportion of them make it through a full season. Granted they have pads on, but the violence in football is probably more than just sliding into a base. So why can't a baseball player go for 100 steals a year? Maybe you can say football players have a week to recover in between games whereas a baseball player has to play almost every day, especially if they are going to go for 100 steals.

Theoretically I don't see a reason why wear and tear is such a big factor, but I guess in practice it is.

RedsManRick
05-08-2011, 04:20 PM
I understand there is a risk of injury when you slide.

But then I started thinking about it more. Starting running backs in college and professional levels routinely get more than 100 carries a season - the best get 200 or more carries - and a good proportion of them make it through a full season. Granted they have pads on, but the violence in football is probably more than just sliding into a base. So why can't a baseball player go for 100 steals a year? Maybe you can say football players have a week to recover in between games whereas a baseball player has to play almost every day, especially if they are going to go for 100 steals.

Theoretically I don't see a reason why wear and tear is such a big factor, but I guess in practice it is.

If the SB were the only times a guy had to run, it would be on thing. But he's also in full sprint almost every other time he's running and while fielding. Also, the RB is going what, 15-20 feet on average per carry? Baseball players are covering a lot more ground. Have those RBs go 30 yards each time and see how they hold up.

But I think the bigger thing is recovery. The nagging injuries that might go away in a few days of rest just don't get a chance to get away. And a RB can still carry the ball at 80 or 90% and pick up yards. With SB, the margins are just so small. If you're not feeling top notch, it's probably not worth the risk.

JKam
05-09-2011, 02:15 AM
If the SB were the only times a guy had to run, it would be on thing. But he's also in full sprint almost every other time he's running and while fielding. Also, the RB is going what, 15-20 feet on average per carry? Baseball players are covering a lot more ground. Have those RBs go 30 yards each time and see how they hold up.

You've got to be kidding.

RBs also run when they are not carrying the ball. They run pass routes. Worse yet, they sometime stay in the backfield and take on a 250 lb linebacker coming at them at full steam.

Also it is not like a baseball player is running on each of the 27 outs when they are fielding. Sometimes there is a strikeout. You think a lot of fielders are running then? And when it is not a strikeout, not every ball is hit at the same guy everytime. Granted fielders have to cover and do other things even if the ball isn't hit at them, but you think a 1B runs more than a quarter mile in a game?

Also baseball players may be going all out on each run when they do run and may be going a little further, but they are usually going in straight lines where as RBs have to cut on a dime putting much more stress on their ankles and knees. And then on top of that they have to deal with 300 lb lineman piling on top of them. Sorry no comparison.


But I think the bigger thing is recovery. The nagging injuries that might go away in a few days of rest just don't get a chance to get away. And a RB can still carry the ball at 80 or 90% and pick up yards. With SB, the margins are just so small. If you're not feeling top notch, it's probably not worth the risk.

You think you can run at 80% with 11 guys chasing after you waiting to rip your leg off has no margin for error? I agree that having a week off helps with recovery time and acknowledged that in my original post, but are you trying to persuade me that trying to steal a base once a day is anything close to carrying the ball 10-20 times a game with 11 BIG guys chasing you, hitting you and piling on top of you?

Rojo
05-09-2011, 04:49 PM
Don't like turning righthanders into switch hitters. It makes even less sense for speedy guys who have trouble finding first. The half-step gained doesn't compensate for the fall-off at the plate. Spend the time and energy on bunting and chopping.

dougdirt
05-09-2011, 05:26 PM
Don't like turning righthanders into switch hitters. It makes even less sense for speedy guys who have trouble finding first. The half-step gained doesn't compensate for the fall-off at the plate. Spend the time and energy on bunting and chopping.

Spend the time on learning to hit better. Learning to chop the ball is an absolutely terrible idea. Learn to make contact a lot more often on pitches in the zone. Learn to not swing at pitches out of the zone. But learn to chop the ball? That is how you ruin a player's potential.

BakoTheTako
05-09-2011, 06:49 PM
Don't like turning righthanders into switch hitters. It makes even less sense for speedy guys who have trouble finding first. The half-step gained doesn't compensate for the fall-off at the plate. Spend the time and energy on bunting and chopping.

Chopping? Sorry but this isn't fast pitch softball.

jredmo2
05-10-2011, 01:14 AM
You've got to be kidding.

RBs also run when they are not carrying the ball. They run pass routes. Worse yet, they sometime stay in the backfield and take on a 250 lb linebacker coming at them at full steam.

Also it is not like a baseball player is running on each of the 27 outs when they are fielding. Sometimes there is a strikeout. You think a lot of fielders are running then? And when it is not a strikeout, not every ball is hit at the same guy everytime. Granted fielders have to cover and do other things even if the ball isn't hit at them, but you think a 1B runs more than a quarter mile in a game?

Also baseball players may be going all out on each run when they do run and may be going a little further, but they are usually going in straight lines where as RBs have to cut on a dime putting much more stress on their ankles and knees. And then on top of that they have to deal with 300 lb lineman piling on top of them. Sorry no comparison.



You think you can run at 80% with 11 guys chasing after you waiting to rip your leg off has no margin for error? I agree that having a week off helps with recovery time and acknowledged that in my original post, but are you trying to persuade me that trying to steal a base once a day is anything close to carrying the ball 10-20 times a game with 11 BIG guys chasing you, hitting you and piling on top of you?

The difference is that baseball is a finesse game. Think about how precise the physics have to be for a batter to solidly hit the ball. Any nagging injury here or there can throw off a players timing, swing, pitching, etc. Witness Ubaldo with his fingernail injury. It sounds stupid, but that stuff has a legitimate adverse effect.

It's not really a matter of not being able to sprint to steal a base, it's more about not disrupting the intricacies needed for successful pitching/hitting.

It's a lot easier for RB to break off a run with a minor injury than it is for a batter to get a hit.

Sea Ray
05-10-2011, 10:11 AM
I understand there is a risk of injury when you slide.

But then I started thinking about it more. Starting running backs in college and professional levels routinely get more than 100 carries a season - the best get 200 or more carries - and a good proportion of them make it through a full season. Granted they have pads on, but the violence in football is probably more than just sliding into a base. So why can't a baseball player go for 100 steals a year? Maybe you can say football players have a week to recover in between games whereas a baseball player has to play almost every day, especially if they are going to go for 100 steals.

Theoretically I don't see a reason why wear and tear is such a big factor, but I guess in practice it is.

RB is about the worst analogy you can make if you want to show how a player does not wear down. RBs wear down more quickly than any other football position. If you're saying that stealing 100 bases is akin to playing RB then I say don't do it because RB is clearly hard on you physically

GOYA
05-10-2011, 10:28 AM
Maybe the organization should ask a few players to stop hitting so many extra base hits. Running those extra bases wears them down. Maybe they should swing a little softer too.

Sometimes this place can get a little ridiculous.

camisadelgolf
05-10-2011, 12:46 PM
Welcome to the internet, GOYA. ;)

REDblooded
05-10-2011, 09:33 PM
Yeah... This thread facepalm'd quick

GOYA
05-10-2011, 10:27 PM
Billy now has 24 SB in 33 games.

RedsManRick
05-11-2011, 12:36 PM
You think you can run at 80% with 11 guys chasing after you waiting to rip your leg off has no margin for error? I agree that having a week off helps with recovery time and acknowledged that in my original post, but are you trying to persuade me that trying to steal a base once a day is anything close to carrying the ball 10-20 times a game with 11 BIG guys chasing you, hitting you and piling on top of you?

I think you're comparing apples and oranges. It's not about doing two things and then comparing who is more tired at the end of the day/week. I won't argue that football is more physically demanding. It's that RB can be banged up a bit and they'll still get carries and be moderately effective.

Stealing bases is fundamentally different. A failure on a steal attempt does much more harm the to the team than a failure on a given rushing attempt. And there is no gray area, no SB equivalent to a rush for no gain. It's a yes or a no, a base or an out. If the RB is a bit banged up, he'll still get carries and can be moderately effective. If a baserunner is banged up, his chances of success drop precipitously and he's quite likely to not run at all.

If a RB tweaks a hamstring, he may push through it. And after that game, he's got a week to recover without losing any rushing opportunities. If a baserunner has a tweaked hamstring, he's not stealing bases. And because there are so few days off, he's constantly missing chances to steal as he recovers.

Scrap Irony
05-11-2011, 12:37 PM
Nice logic, RMR. Hadn't considered it like that. Makes sense.

GOYA
05-20-2011, 01:55 PM
Billy now has 32 SB in 40 games.

Projection to a 138 game season:

110.4

REDblooded
05-20-2011, 02:03 PM
I'd like to reopen this debate for RB/Baseball/Injury Impact of Running Bases opinions.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-20-2011, 02:11 PM
What does 100 SB's combined with a .500 OPS equate to? Seriously. .750?

dougdirt
05-21-2011, 04:22 PM
What does 100 SB's combined with a .500 OPS equate to? Seriously. .750?

Not even close.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-21-2011, 08:03 PM
Not even close.

Great thanks for answering the question, Dougdirt. You are the bestest.

camisadelgolf
05-21-2011, 08:53 PM
What does 100 SB's combined with a .500 OPS equate to? Seriously. .750?
That is a very difficult question to answer. Ever player steals bases at a different success rate. This year, the MLB average is 71.4%. At that rate, a player who steals 100 bases would be caught 40 times, which has happened only once in MLB history (Rickey Henderson was caught 42 times in 1982).

Speaking of Henderson, he was successful in 80.7% of his attempts as a big leaguer. Billy Hamilton is successful 84.1% of the time for his career against weaker competition. But to be fair, the value of stolen base attempts was less understood back in Henderson's day, so he probably would've been more efficient if his prime were today.

I guess what I'm saying is this: before you can convert a stolen base to OPS, you need to determine the value of a stolen base. In order to do that, you need to decide on the context.

Are we talking about a player with average speed with an average success rate? Or a player with 80 speed who is successful in more than 80% of his attempts? If you go with the latter, what good does that do you in determining OPS?

The reason I ask is because a player with 80 speed will also turn singles into doubles and triples into home runs, so are we talking about a .500 OPS when factoring his speed? Not only that, but he'll also find more ways to score from second base on a single, so if you're looking to find out his overall value as a hitter and runner, you'll probably want to look at it from an angle of WAR as opposed to OPS.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-22-2011, 01:02 AM
That is a very difficult question to answer. Ever player steals bases at a different success rate. This year, the MLB average is 71.4%. At that rate, a player who steals 100 bases would be caught 40 times, which has happened only once in MLB history (Rickey Henderson was caught 42 times in 1982).

Speaking of Henderson, he was successful in 80.7% of his attempts as a big leaguer. Billy Hamilton is successful 84.1% of the time for his career against weaker competition. But to be fair, the value of stolen base attempts was less understood back in Henderson's day, so he probably would've been more efficient if his prime were today.

I guess what I'm saying is this: before you can convert a stolen base to OPS, you need to determine the value of a stolen base. In order to do that, you need to decide on the context.

Are we talking about a player with average speed with an average success rate? Or a player with 80 speed who is successful in more than 80% of his attempts? If you go with the latter, what good does that do you in determining OPS?

The reason I ask is because a player with 80 speed will also turn singles into doubles and triples into home runs, so are we talking about a .500 OPS when factoring his speed? Not only that, but he'll also find more ways to score from second base on a single, so if you're looking to find out his overall value as a hitter and runner, you'll probably want to look at it from an angle of WAR as opposed to OPS.

Thanks, camisa. I appreciate the well thought out response.

I'm just wondering what a .500ish OPS translated too with 100 SB's (let's say at 84% success rate). I think it would probably better represented in RC.

Obviously .500 stinks, but those extra bases from steals should level it off. And combine that with a playing a defense-oriented position, such as SS and CF (his future IMO) and it changes the way we look at it.

For example, if Paul Janish had nearly 30 SB's right now, even his putrid OPS would seems tolerable. I was just wondering if anyone had a ball park guess as to what a .500 OPS would be the equivalent to - with all those steals.

GOYA
05-22-2011, 02:21 AM
I don't know why the concern over Billy's OPS right now. We all know he is a project. If he learns to hit, then we may have something. In the meantime, he steals bases in low A.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-22-2011, 09:58 AM
Not worried about it. Just wondering how so many SB's can alter the value of it.

camisadelgolf
05-22-2011, 12:48 PM
Thanks, camisa. I appreciate the well thought out response.

I'm just wondering what a .500ish OPS translated too with 100 SB's (let's say at 84% success rate). I think it would probably better represented in RC.

Obviously .500 stinks, but those extra bases from steals should level it off. And combine that with a playing a defense-oriented position, such as SS and CF (his future IMO) and it changes the way we look at it.

For example, if Paul Janish had nearly 30 SB's right now, even his putrid OPS would seems tolerable. I was just wondering if anyone had a ball park guess as to what a .500 OPS would be the equivalent to - with all those steals.
Using small sample sizes, I'd say that elite speed--through stolen bases, taking extra bases, and all around good base-running--can add about two WAR over a full season. If a .500 OPS translates to about -2.1 WAR over 500 plate appearances, then that would make him a AAAA player on offense. In other words, if his defense is average or below at shortstop, he doesn't deserve a spot on a MLB roster.

GOYA
05-28-2011, 10:02 PM
Billy picked up his 40th in the Dragons' 48th game.

mdccclxix
05-28-2011, 11:00 PM
In case people wonder, that's 12 more steals than anyone in baseball right now.

GOYA
07-05-2011, 04:15 PM
Billy now has 60 SB after the Dragon's 82nd game.

Projection to a 138 game season:

101 SB

davereds24
07-05-2011, 04:30 PM
Definitely slowing down, hopefully he can make it.

davereds24
07-15-2011, 11:18 PM
Billy picked up #68 in game #91 for the Dragons.

Blitz Dorsey
07-17-2011, 10:11 PM
Now up to 69.

GOYA
08-07-2011, 11:51 AM
Billy got his 78th SB in game 111.

Projected to 138 games: 97 SB

And his batting avg is now up to .260.

Joseph
08-07-2011, 01:17 PM
I'd love to see a guy stealing 80 -100 bases again. It made things so exciting.

RedsManRick
08-07-2011, 06:04 PM
What does 100 SB's combined with a .500 OPS equate to? Seriously. .750?

A few things to remember:
- It's not the total number of stolen bases that matters, it's the combined value of stolen bases and caught stealing.
- You have remember that stolen bases don't advance other runners. A single and a SB is less valuable than a double.

Here's a very rough of the envelope calculation. Hamilton currently has a .330 wOBA on a .670 OPS (.260/.321/.349). Fangraphs wOBA includes SB & CS. To date, he's been worth 58 RC (+wRC of 105).

The run value of going from a guy on first base and no out, to a guy on 2B with no out (using Tango's 1969-1992 run environment) is .853 to 1.102, a gain of .25 runs. The cost of getting thrown out is .6 runs. (71% break even). With one out, it's +.17 and -.41 (71%). So they're basically the same, let's just use 0 outs to keep it simple.

He's stolen 78 and been caught 16 times. That adds up to +19.5 runs and minus 9.6 runs. So he's basically added 10 runs so far.

Given his number of PA, 55 RC is average. If we subtract out the roughly 10 runs his legs have added, he'd be about 48 RC, which would make his wRC+ 82 instead of 105. Now, OPS and wOBA aren't linearly related, since OPS underweights OBP, but let's just use it to make an estimate. Let's say his .654 OPS is an 82 OPS+. That would make average 798. That would make an OPS+ of 105 .838, a 184 boost. Chop 154 points off of that to make the original OPS 500 and you'd get a conversion to 684.

I know there are all sorts of problem with the conversions here for a number of reasons and I don't know how off it is, but it is what it is.

Here's a site which shows a .330 wOBA as equivalent to about a .760 OPS That would suggest his 62 SB to be worth about 100 points of OPS.

So, if we want a SUPER back of the envelope calculation, let's just call every net SB worth about 2 points of OPS over the course of a season.

Edd Roush
08-08-2011, 08:14 AM
A few things to remember:
- It's not the total number of stolen bases that matters, it's the combined value of stolen bases and caught stealing.
- You have remember that stolen bases don't advance other runners. A single and a SB is less valuable than a double.

Here's a very rough of the envelope calculation. Hamilton currently has a .330 wOBA on a .670 OPS (.260/.321/.349). Fangraphs wOBA includes SB & CS. To date, he's been worth 58 RC (+wRC of 105).

The run value of going from a guy on first base and no out, to a guy on 2B with no out (using Tango's 1969-1992 run environment) is .853 to 1.102, a gain of .25 runs. The cost of getting thrown out is .6 runs. (71% break even). With one out, it's +.17 and -.41 (71%). So they're basically the same, let's just use 0 outs to keep it simple.

He's stolen 78 and been caught 16 times. That adds up to +19.5 runs and minus 9.6 runs. So he's basically added 10 runs so far.

Given his number of PA, 55 RC is average. If we subtract out the roughly 10 runs his legs have added, he'd be about 48 RC, which would make his wRC+ 82 instead of 105. Now, OPS and wOBA aren't linearly related, since OPS underweights OBP, but let's just use it to make an estimate. Let's say his .654 OPS is an 82 OPS+. That would make average 798. That would make an OPS+ of 105 .838, a 184 boost. Chop 154 points off of that to make the original OPS 500 and you'd get a conversion to 684.

I know there are all sorts of problem with the conversions here for a number of reasons and I don't know how off it is, but it is what it is.

Here's a site which shows a .330 wOBA as equivalent to about a .760 OPS That would suggest his 62 SB to be worth about 100 points of OPS.

So, if we want a SUPER back of the envelope calculation, let's just call every net SB worth about 2 points of OPS over the course of a season.


Thanks for the breakdown, Rick. That was very interesting for me to read.

penantboundreds
08-08-2011, 09:22 AM
Rick -- I appreciate that breakdown but here are some things you can't calculate. The time and energy the pitcher focuses on the guy at first. How many more fastballs are thrown when he is on to keep it interesting if he runs? Are pitchers afraid to bounce a breaking ball with him on base?

Things to think about.

dougdirt
08-08-2011, 01:21 PM
Rick -- I appreciate that breakdown but here are some things you can't calculate. The time and energy the pitcher focuses on the guy at first. How many more fastballs are thrown when he is on to keep it interesting if he runs? Are pitchers afraid to bounce a breaking ball with him on base?

Things to think about.

How many pitches the next batter is told to take because the manager wants the runner to steal and leads to him getting behind in the count or looking at the best pitch he gets to swing at all night. How many times he makes weak contact on a hit and run to "protect" the plate.

It goes both ways.

penantboundreds
08-08-2011, 01:37 PM
Doug -- I certainly agree to an extent but anytime you can take the attention off the hitter that is a good thing. And if a good enough hitter is behind him (Votto) then a hit and run/take sign may not be a good idea.

bellhead
08-08-2011, 02:20 PM
How many pitches the next batter is told to take because the manager wants the runner to steal and leads to him getting behind in the count or looking at the best pitch he gets to swing at all night. How many times he makes weak contact on a hit and run to "protect" the plate.

It goes both ways.

Good points however when you have a guy hitting .390 in the two hole behind you then what?

RedsManRick
08-08-2011, 02:22 PM
Rick -- I appreciate that breakdown but here are some things you can't calculate. The time and energy the pitcher focuses on the guy at first. How many more fastballs are thrown when he is on to keep it interesting if he runs? Are pitchers afraid to bounce a breaking ball with him on base?

Things to think about.

Of course, but those things don't show up in a guy's OPS either. That was the question at hand -- not overall offensive value. I can't find the study, it might have been in The Book, but I believe the studies have shown that the effect of simply having a guy on 1B vs. not having a guy on 1B makes a bigger difference than whether or not the guy on 1B is fast. (in large part due to fielder positioning).

It's worth taking in to account, but if it matters, it's marginal.

On the flip side. Let's say we're down 2 runs and Hamilton is on first. Joey Votto is up. Phillips is on deck. Hamilton steals 2B. Votto gets walked. Was that a net plus compared to the range of possible outcomes with Votto at the plate and being pitched to? As Doug said, there are a number of possible impacts.

membengal
09-03-2011, 08:59 PM
Yes.

cinreds21
09-03-2011, 11:56 PM
So suck it to the 29 people who said no? lol

The Operator
09-04-2011, 01:37 AM
I was in attendance tonight for Billy's 100th stolen base. Man oh man, that kid is super fast. I've never seen a pitcher so clearly distracted by a base runner before.

RedsManRick
09-04-2011, 10:55 AM
That crow tastes wonderful. Congrats to Billy!

Billy Hamilton steals his 100th base of the season - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COZVB5kl7f0&feature=related)

Just for the sake of perspective, here's the last guy to steal 100 bags: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=morris001ken

FireDusty
09-05-2011, 10:28 PM
3 more

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t459&t=p_pbp&pid=571740

NeilHamburger
09-06-2011, 12:05 AM
His post all star OPS of .769 is encouraging. But, man he doesn't have any power. I'd sacrifice about 25 of those SB's for a little more pop in that bat. I hope this offseason he's on a strength program. After hearing about him last year I was pretty shocked when I saw him in spring training. It looked like a MLB pitcher could just about knock the bat out of his hands, and not in a Paul Janish way, I mean literally.

Still, I don't mean to rain on the parade. 100 bags is a nice accomplishment.

icehole3
09-06-2011, 05:37 AM
there's enough power hitters in the system, not enough slap hitters who can bunt, run, get on base and do the small things in front of the RBI guys, I hope the Reds draft more guys like him along with lots of hard throwing pitchers

dougdirt
09-06-2011, 09:20 AM
there's enough power hitters in the system, not enough slap hitters who can bunt, run, get on base and do the small things in front of the RBI guys, I hope the Reds draft more guys like him along with lots of hard throwing pitchers

Billy Hamilton isn't a slap hitter. He may want to be, but to me a slap hitter is Juan Pierre. A guy who always makes contact but has no power. Billy Hamilton fits the latter part of that, but he strikes out at the same rate that Jay Bruce does.

IslandRed
09-06-2011, 10:15 AM
Billy Hamilton isn't a slap hitter. He may want to be, but to me a slap hitter is Juan Pierre. A guy who always makes contact but has no power. Billy Hamilton fits the latter part of that, but he strikes out at the same rate that Jay Bruce does.

Makes me wonder, if he doesn't have power anyway, would he be better off cutting down his swing, going the pure slap route and trusting in his ability to lead the free world in infield hits? Or does he still have some doubles-power projection left?

JayBruceFan
09-06-2011, 05:39 PM
I would like to think that he has doubles-power projection. I have seen him all year in Dayton and I have seen him hit numerous balls deep into the gaps and balls off the walls in the gaps, so the power is there. He just needs to grow into it.

dougdirt
09-06-2011, 05:42 PM
Makes me wonder, if he doesn't have power anyway, would he be better off cutting down his swing, going the pure slap route and trusting in his ability to lead the free world in infield hits? Or does he still have some doubles-power projection left?

He has some gap power potential. His problem is two fold IMO. One, he struggles with pitch recognition at times. Two, and perhaps this is strongly related to one, he doesn't keep his weight back well, often swinging off his front foot, which takes his already poor power and plays it down even more. Now, that could be related to number one, but it could also be by design, just trying to get the ball on the ground and run. I don't know the answer, but I think the answer might lay somewhere in the middle.

texasdave
09-06-2011, 05:48 PM
Just curious. How often does he bunt? Is he proficient at it? A strong bunt/pilfer foundation will serve him well in the future.

redsof72
09-06-2011, 08:34 PM
Billy is not a good bunter at this point. He is planning to work on this hard in instructional league. If he becomes a good bunter, it will help his batting average even when he swings away because the corner infielders will have to play in so far that they will sacrifice range.

I am not taking a position on whether he will ever get to the big leagues. And if he does get to the big leagues, I am not putting a floor or a ceiling on what kind of player he will be. All of that is a long, long way from being known. It is all going to depend on how he adjusts and adapts, level to level. But the point I would make is this: If you have not seen him totally take over a game like he did Saturday and then again Monday, you might say that the Reds need more players like Hamilton, players who have the ability to steal bases and play small ball. But the fact is, there are no other players LIKE Hamilton, not in the Reds organization or in any other organization. There is no one else with the freakish athletic ability to do the things only he can do.

You can talk about the five tools. Hamilton has a tool that no other player in baseball has: athleticism that is absolutely off the scale. A player with that kind of a God-given physical advantage has a better chance of showing massive improvement over time than a player who is an ordinary athlete.

Will he do it? I don't know and don't pretend to have a crystal ball. Yes, he has a long way to go. But to try to profile him into any category is not correct. There are no comparable players.

From July 5 until the end of the season, he scored 56 runs in 58 games. Think about that. And if you have seen him play, you know when he gets on base, he is not exactly waiting around for someone to drive him in. How many players have you ever seen who averaged about a run per game?

That is the kind of impact Hamilton had on the Dragons second half team that went 48-22.

Once in a great while, you see a player come along who has a skill so unique that it changes traditional universally-adopted strategy by the opponent. An example I could use would be Devin Hester, so unique as a return man that teams will go away from traditional ideas of kick coverage and just kick the ball out of bounds and sacrifice the yardage. I have seen things from opposing managers this year that you just don't see any other time with any other player.

For the record: Hamilton in the first half: .233. In the second half: .318.

lollipopcurve
09-07-2011, 10:53 AM
It's great Dayton got to enjoy Hamilton over a full year. Been a long drought for that superb franchise.

bubbachunk
09-07-2011, 11:03 AM
Thanks for the input on Hamilton 72, very intriguing.

chicoruiz
09-07-2011, 11:21 AM
What's the over/under on his steals next year hitting in the Cal League?

Dan
09-07-2011, 01:34 PM
Makes me wonder, if he doesn't have power anyway, would he be better off cutting down his swing, going the pure slap route and trusting in his ability to lead the free world in infield hits? Or does he still have some doubles-power projection left?

The problem with that is infields start playing in against him, cutting down some of that. If he can develop some pop, even 10 HRs and 25 doubles a year, he'll have the fielders playing back enough that when he can beat out an infield hit, he will.

Scrap Irony
09-07-2011, 04:28 PM
If he can learn to bunt even adequately, with his speed, Hamilton could post some 350/430/420 lines in the major leagues.

The problem is bunting. It's an art, not a science.

Oh, how I wish Brett Butler could teach Hamilton how to bunt like... well, Brett Butler. Best bunter I ever saw. Even at age 40, he could lay one down and it wouldn't matter if you fielded it cleanly and made a highlight reel play, he was on first.

texasdave
09-07-2011, 04:56 PM
For awhile Norris Hopper was a bunting maniac.

gonelong
09-07-2011, 05:01 PM
If he can learn to bunt even adequately, with his speed, Hamilton could post some 350/430/420 lines in the major leagues.

The problem is bunting. It's an art, not a science.

Oh, how I wish Brett Butler could teach Hamilton how to bunt like... well, Brett Butler. Best bunter I ever saw. Even at age 40, he could lay one down and it wouldn't matter if you fielded it cleanly and made a highlight reel play, he was on first.

In the handful of games I have been to Hamilton has attempted a bunt in all of them. All of them unsucessfully.

GL

icehole3
09-08-2011, 05:53 AM
In the handful of games I have been to Hamilton has attempted a bunt in all of them. All of them unsucessfully.

GL

at least he's trying, Stubbs for some reason doesnt even try, Hamilton may not be Juan Pierre, but he's so young and the fact is he understands that his game is get on and create havoc makes him special, I also believe that although their isnt many players like Hamilton, I still would like to see the Reds grab guys as close to Hamilton's skill set as possible, they have a lot of pure power hitters they need more pesky lightening fast guys to set the table just my opinion

gonelong
09-08-2011, 08:49 AM
at least he's trying, Stubbs for some reason doesnt even try, Hamilton may not be Juan Pierre, but he's so young and the fact is he understands that his game is get on and create havoc makes him special, I also believe that although their isnt many players like Hamilton, I still would like to see the Reds grab guys as close to Hamilton's skill set as possible, they have a lot of pure power hitters they need more pesky lightening fast guys to set the table just my opinion

I'm glad to see him working on bunting ... he is just *lightening* fast and it would serve him well to be able to drop one down. He just has a long way to go yet from what I have seen.

GL

powersackers
09-09-2011, 02:36 AM
He Stung some balls the last two games I went to, Monday and Thursday. No one is "knocking the bat out of his hands" like I saw a comment on here a while back.

Scrap Irony
09-09-2011, 03:43 PM
I figure Hamilton, by the time he reaches the majors, could look like Joe Morgan.

He's one of the few players who actually looked stronger by the end of the year than when they started.

dougdirt
09-09-2011, 04:30 PM
I figure Hamilton, by the time he reaches the majors, could look like Joe Morgan.

He's one of the few players who actually looked stronger by the end of the year than when they started.

Hamilton is about 6 inches taller than Morgan is. Not sure what you mean exactly.

Scrap Irony
09-09-2011, 05:38 PM
Filled out. Stronger. Bigger. Morgan a la 1976 rather than Morgan a la 1971.

Hamilton seemed to fill out as the season wore on. If I could post pictures, I'd show you the two I took. One, in early May, showed Hamilton on base. His legs looked like sticks.

The other, taken in August, showed him in the on-deck circle. He looked like he had muscles and his legs were noticeably larger. (Or at least appeared that way.)

dougdirt
09-09-2011, 05:49 PM
Filled out. Stronger. Bigger. Morgan a la 1976 rather than Morgan a la 1971.

Hamilton seemed to fill out as the season wore on. If I could post pictures, I'd show you the two I took. One, in early May, showed Hamilton on base. His legs looked like sticks.

The other, taken in August, showed him in the on-deck circle. He looked like he had muscles and his legs were noticeably larger. (Or at least appeared that way.)

Post away. Upload them to flickr or imageshack or something similar.

Scrap Irony
09-09-2011, 07:23 PM
You misunderstand. I don't know how.

bubbachunk
09-09-2011, 09:12 PM
Send them to me in an email and I will post them?
bubbachunk14@gmail.com

Mario-Rijo
09-10-2011, 09:14 AM
If he can learn to bunt even adequately, with his speed, Hamilton could post some 350/430/420 lines in the major leagues.

The problem is bunting. It's an art, not a science.

Oh, how I wish Brett Butler could teach Hamilton how to bunt like... well, Brett Butler. Best bunter I ever saw. Even at age 40, he could lay one down and it wouldn't matter if you fielded it cleanly and made a highlight reel play, he was on first.

Agree on Butler he was a master of the art, fun to watch except for when he played the Reds.