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View Full Version : Ev vs. Leake...



brm7675
05-11-2011, 03:17 PM
From what we have seen over the past season +, as of right now I am not real sure how anyone can say that Edision is better the Leake. Yes Leake has had a bad outing or so, but right now I feel much more comfortable with Leake starting over EV. I would like to know why Dusty feels that EV is a better choice over Leake at this point also.:confused:

BluegrassRedleg
05-11-2011, 04:02 PM
With all due respect, if you don't already understand, I don't think there's anything I can type here to convince you.

EV's driving us all crazy, but his stuff is ace-caliber when he's right. They just need to find out how to get him out of this rut he's in.

brm7675
05-11-2011, 04:37 PM
With all due respect, if you don't already understand, I don't think there's anything I can type here to convince you.

EV's driving us all crazy, but his stuff is ace-caliber when he's right. They just need to find out how to get him out of this rut he's in.

Ace Caliber? Really and when was the last time we saw this? He has been in this "rut" as you call it since returning from the TJ surgery. Again maybe down the road he gets it together, but right now are you telling me EV is a better Major league pitcher the Leake?

BluegrassRedleg
05-11-2011, 05:05 PM
I said his stuff was ace-caliber... and it is. But he's not right now.

And Leake just showed us again why he's not very effective.

Vottomatic
05-11-2011, 05:08 PM
I'd bring Volquez out of the bullpen.

:laugh:

Just kidding.

I wish had options left. He frustrates the crap out of me.

BluegrassRedleg
05-11-2011, 05:13 PM
He has been in this "rut" as you call it since returning from the TJ surgery.

He had 12 regular-season starts last year, 7 quality:

1 ER in 6 (9K)
1 ER in 6.2
1 ER in 6
0 ER in 7 (10K)
3 ER in 6.2
1 ER in 8
2 ER in 6 (8K)

That body of work CLEARLY indicates ace-caliber stuff.

Five of those starts featured 2 or fewer BBs, so I don't think your theory on the TJ surgery holds any water.

Consistency is his biggest enemy right now, and I think it's clear he's in a bad rut. There's no issue with velocity. It's all mental focus and location.

DocRed
05-12-2011, 09:55 AM
Right now I think they are a wash. When EV gets his head on straight he is way better.

will5979
05-12-2011, 10:00 AM
E.V. may have driven us crazy yesterday, but come on how do you expect them to win with 3 freakin runs? In my opinion E.V. did his job, kept the offense in the ballgame and they let him down. Votto needs to learn how to hit homeruns again, Rolen needs to get his gimpy butt back in this lineup, Gomes needs to get hot again, and Dusty needs to start Heisey everyday...for yestedays loss I blame the entire offense for lack of production and Duhsty for not starting Heisey.

markymark69
05-12-2011, 10:19 AM
I said his stuff was ace-caliber... and it is. But he's not right now.

And Leake just showed us again why he's not very effective.

I agree. Leake is not exactly lights out right now.

brm7675
05-12-2011, 11:06 AM
E.V. may have driven us crazy yesterday, but come on how do you expect them to win with 3 freakin runs? In my opinion E.V. did his job, kept the offense in the ballgame and they let him down. Votto needs to learn how to hit homeruns again, Rolen needs to get his gimpy butt back in this lineup, Gomes needs to get hot again, and Dusty needs to start Heisey everyday...for yestedays loss I blame the entire offense for lack of production and Duhsty for not starting Heisey.

Did his job? Are you serious? He only went 4 innings, which causes Dusty to go to the bullpen way to early. He couldn't throw a strike against one of the poorest hitting teams in the league.

How many HR's did Votto have at this point last year? I bet if you look it was about the same number he has now. Votto isn't the problem.

Gomes isn't going to get "hot' again.

brm7675
05-12-2011, 11:07 AM
I said his stuff was ace-caliber... and it is. But he's not right now.

And Leake just showed us again why he's not very effective.

Exactly "HOW" did Leake show us "again" he is not ver effective?

Stray
05-12-2011, 11:37 AM
I think it depends on what Price thinks the problem is. If there is a mechanical flaw then going down for a start or two to work that out wouldn't be a bad idea. Leake could fill his spot over that time. If we can get Volquez throwing more strikes then it's a no-brainer.

will5979
05-12-2011, 11:59 AM
Did his job? Are you serious? He only went 4 innings, which causes Dusty to go to the bullpen way to early. He couldn't throw a strike against one of the poorest hitting teams in the league.

How many HR's did Votto have at this point last year? I bet if you look it was about the same number he has now. Votto isn't the problem.

Gomes isn't going to get "hot' again.

Ouch, sorry, I had to work yesterday and didn't get to start watching the game until the 7th inning. I thought that E.V. had gone up till that point, plus I was in a restaurant with no sound on the tvs. Yeah 4 innings against Houston is unacceptable, send him down to AA for some tune up work. He has the mechanics, or maybe he should go back to steroids (I'm serious btw).

And Votto is killing me not hitting any HRs, he comes to the plate with runners on we need some cheap runs aka 3-run hrs and grand slams.

I still blame the offense for the loss, they should have scored more than just 3 runs...

bounty37h
05-12-2011, 12:01 PM
I agree. Leake is not exactly lights out right now.

Niether of them is close to lights out right now, wish they both got it together and we were arguiing which is the true ace or better yet, discussing the pair of aces.

SidneySlicker
05-12-2011, 12:27 PM
He had 12 regular-season starts last year, 7 quality:

1 ER in 6 (9K)
1 ER in 6.2
1 ER in 6
0 ER in 7 (10K)
3 ER in 6.2
1 ER in 8
2 ER in 6 (8K)

That body of work CLEARLY indicates ace-caliber stuff.

Five of those starts featured 2 or fewer BBs, so I don't think your theory on the TJ surgery holds any water.

Consistency is his biggest enemy right now, and I think it's clear he's in a bad rut. There's no issue with velocity. It's all mental focus and location.

When are people going to figure out that EV is what he is. Despite the fact that he has dominant #1 type stuff, he doesn't throw strikes. It's been that way since he was brought up with the Rangers and they sent him down to try and fix him and to no avail. He's lived his entire career off of his stuff. It's the reason the Reds traded for Volquez, but it is his seventh year in major league baseball and he still struggles from the same thing that has plagued him his whole career. Inability to throw strikes. I keep hearing, but when he's right he's a #1. I have some stats for you guys. Here are his walks/9innings for his career.

2005-7.3
2006-4.6
2007-3.9
2008-4.2
2009-5.8
2010-5.0
2011-6.6

Add on top of those walk rates the fact that in his 7 years in the league he's had 2 seasons where he pitched more than 60 innings. Where is the track record? For all those that say when he's right. Problem is he's right like 1 out of ever 5 starts. You can't walk guys that consistently or you are gonna get burned.

Folks he is what he is. Mentally or physically he isn't there and in my opion never will be. So people need to get over this hope that he'll some day magically become right all the time, and be that #1 starter that everyone has hoped he can be. He's had 7 years to try and people need to let go.

texasdave
05-12-2011, 12:34 PM
Pitchers like EV get pitching coaches and managers fired. He will sprinkle in just enough gems to keep everyone salivating. But I agree with the previous post that he is never going to find the consistency needed to reach ace status. I sincerely hope I am wrong about that.

SidneySlicker
05-12-2011, 12:45 PM
Volquez is on pace to pitch 163innings and walk 122 batters. For a frame of reference over the last few years the pitchers with the most walks in the league pitched around 200 innins and walked around or just under a 100 . So approx. 120% of the walks for 80% of the innings.

BluegrassRedleg
05-12-2011, 02:10 PM
E.V. may have driven us crazy yesterday, but come on how do you expect them to win with 3 freakin runs? In my opinion E.V. did his job, kept the offense in the ballgame and they let him down. Votto needs to learn how to hit homeruns again, Rolen needs to get his gimpy butt back in this lineup, Gomes needs to get hot again, and Dusty needs to start Heisey everyday...for yestedays loss I blame the entire offense for lack of production and Duhsty for not starting Heisey.

Gomes has been an ineffective starting OF dating back to the end of May last season. I know they love his attitude and what he brings to the club, but his production is not worthy of playing every day. Like you, I'm puzzled by what exactly Heisey needs to do in order to get some more regular ABs.

BluegrassRedleg
05-12-2011, 02:10 PM
Exactly "HOW" did Leake show us "again" he is not ver effective?

Does not miss enough bats. That catches up with him eventually, time and time again.

BluegrassRedleg
05-12-2011, 02:15 PM
When are people going to figure out that EV is what he is. Despite the fact that he has dominant #1 type stuff, he doesn't throw strikes. It's been that way since he was brought up with the Rangers and they sent him down to try and fix him and to no avail. He's lived his entire career off of his stuff. It's the reason the Reds traded for Volquez, but it is his seventh year in major league baseball and he still struggles from the same thing that has plagued him his whole career. Inability to throw strikes. I keep hearing, but when he's right he's a #1. I have some stats for you guys. Here are his walks/9innings for his career.

2005-7.3
2006-4.6
2007-3.9
2008-4.2
2009-5.8
2010-5.0
2011-6.6

Add on top of those walk rates the fact that in his 7 years in the league he's had 2 seasons where he pitched more than 60 innings. Where is the track record? For all those that say when he's right. Problem is he's right like 1 out of ever 5 starts. You can't walk guys that consistently or you are gonna get burned.

Folks he is what he is. Mentally or physically he isn't there and in my opion never will be. So people need to get over this hope that he'll some day magically become right all the time, and be that #1 starter that everyone has hoped he can be. He's had 7 years to try and people need to let go.

That's certainly a fair post, and I agree with almost everything you say here, but it's not really what I was getting at. I was trying to show that I don't buy the Tommy John thing as the reason for him struggling. He pitched great several times last year after TJS.

"He is what he is" is probably the best way to sum him up.

But I know what he's not, and that's Mike Leake.

texasdave
05-12-2011, 03:47 PM
Does not miss enough bats. That catches up with him eventually, time and time again.

Leake's K/9 this season is 8.1. That's pretty good. His career K/9 is 6.4 which is still above average for a starting pitcher. His 2011 xFip (if you place any credence in that stat) is 3.34. Volquez's is a run worse at 4.31.

lonewolf371
05-12-2011, 03:48 PM
When are people going to figure out that EV is what he is. Despite the fact that he has dominant #1 type stuff, he doesn't throw strikes. It's been that way since he was brought up with the Rangers and they sent him down to try and fix him and to no avail. He's lived his entire career off of his stuff. It's the reason the Reds traded for Volquez, but it is his seventh year in major league baseball and he still struggles from the same thing that has plagued him his whole career. Inability to throw strikes. I keep hearing, but when he's right he's a #1. I have some stats for you guys. Here are his walks/9innings for his career.

2005-7.3
2006-4.6
2007-3.9
2008-4.2
2009-5.8
2010-5.0
2011-6.6

Add on top of those walk rates the fact that in his 7 years in the league he's had 2 seasons where he pitched more than 60 innings. Where is the track record? For all those that say when he's right. Problem is he's right like 1 out of ever 5 starts. You can't walk guys that consistently or you are gonna get burned.

Folks he is what he is. Mentally or physically he isn't there and in my opion never will be. So people need to get over this hope that he'll some day magically become right all the time, and be that #1 starter that everyone has hoped he can be. He's had 7 years to try and people need to let go.
It's not really fair to bring up individual years where he pitched less than 40 innings and didn't even qualify to be a rookie. Sample size is way too small to make any judgments.

Instead, let's look at his career walk rate: 4.91 BB/9, and then keep in mind that that number is inflated since he's spent about half of his major league career recovering from Tommy John surgery. We're talking about a guy that's totally off right now that's still getting 8.72 K/9, and his groundball rate is better than his career 2008 year. He has a curveball now that he didn't have in 2008.

I compare him to Anibal Sanchez, a guy that had a good 2006 and then struggled for 3 years as a result of injuries and whatnot. Then, finally in 2010, he put it all together and went out and had a 195 IP season with a 3.55 ERA and he's even better this year. With Volquez, the upside is even higher. Give him time.

BluegrassRedleg
05-12-2011, 03:59 PM
Leake's K/9 this season is 8.1. That's pretty good. His career K/9 is 6.4 which is still above average for a starting pitcher. His 2011 xFip (if you place any credence in that stat) is 3.34. Volquez's is a run worse at 4.31.

That's an interesting figure, but I still feel like people catch on to him after a time or two through the order. When he starts, he seems to hit a wall around the 4th or 5th every time out. I don't know if the stats support that hunch, but that's the way it feels.

bounty37h
05-12-2011, 04:07 PM
That's an interesting figure, but I still feel like people catch on to him after a time or two through the order. When he starts, he seems to hit a wall around the 4th or 5th every time out. I don't know if the stats support that hunch, but that's the way it feels.

There was a post yesterday, cant recall which thread, that showed opposite of that. I was a lil surprised as well.

lonewolf371
05-12-2011, 04:46 PM
There was a post yesterday, cant recall which thread, that showed opposite of that. I was a lil surprised as well.
Well those rates are supposed to stabilize around 150 batters faced, but I remain skeptical that Leake could keep up that rate if he continued to start.

texasdave
05-12-2011, 04:52 PM
Of course, Leake is only 23. Most pitchers that age are facing AA or maybe AAA hitters.

texasdave
05-12-2011, 04:54 PM
I compare him to Anibal Sanchez, a guy that had a good 2006 and then struggled for 3 years as a result of injuries and whatnot. Then, finally in 2010, he put it all together and went out and had a 195 IP season with a 3.55 ERA and he's even better this year. With Volquez, the upside is even higher. Give him time.

When does Volquez become an unrestricted free agent? Do the Reds have the time to allow him to scuffle along until he rights the ship? If he ever does?

lonewolf371
05-12-2011, 04:58 PM
When does Volquez become an unrestricted free agent? Do the Reds have the time to allow him to scuffle along until he rights the ship? If he ever does?
2014. That's a long time away.

texasdave
05-12-2011, 05:16 PM
2014. That's a long time away.

Noone can say he isn't an intriguing pitcher. Certainly beats the days of Jimmy Haynes and Joey Hamilton.

smixsell
05-12-2011, 05:48 PM
Leake WILL be an ace someday, but it will probably take few years (2-5) for it to happen. Leake is a Greg Maddux in the making, mark my words. Within 5 years he will be one of the top pitchers in baseball. (For those of you who say "no way" check out Maddux's early stats).

EV might become an ace, but the odds are lengthening. The plus side for EV is that, although unlikely, he MIGHT become an ace at any moment. If he has any options left I would send him to the minors so he can work on his mechanics and command without the immediate pressure of having to pitch for immediate results each night.

For right now I'd like to send EV out, put Leake back in the rotation, and call up Arrodondo to fill the extra bullpen space. Then give EV a chance to regain his spot after his "tune-up" in the minors.

BluegrassRedleg
05-14-2011, 07:05 PM
Leake WILL be an ace someday, but it will probably take few years (2-5) for it to happen. Leake is a Greg Maddux in the making, mark my words. Within 5 years he will be one of the top pitchers in baseball. (For those of you who say "no way" check out Maddux's early stats)..

A good case can be made for showing patience, but he's got to quit grooving so many pitches. The park he's pitching in requires total concentration and hitting your spots the whole time. He puts 3-4 pitches on a tee (minimum) every appearance as if he's pitching in Petco.