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View Full Version : Evaluating the current state of the Reds



Billy Hamilton's Legs
05-23-2011, 09:39 PM
I don't want to be the guy screaming "panic!" but this is the first time in a a year that I have been genuinely worried about the state of the team. Pitching of late outside of Homer and Cueto has looked more or less atrocious. Volquez may be out for a while and, even if he does get back, his consistency will always be a huge question. Our depth at SP has simply been depleted, and by May 23rd no less. The bullpen has been okay, above average probably, but with Chapman having major control issues, the bullpen isn't quite the same. SS is looking bleak as Janish's true value starts to appear and Renteria unhappy. LF has also been terrible thus far, but I'm optimistic about finding an internal answer there, whether it be Heisey, Lewis, Frazier, Sappelt (upon return from DL), Alonso, or some sort of time share. Rolen has played well when healthy, but the problem is he is often not healthy and we don't have a definitive, effective backup for him. In addition, Rolen's health will only deteriorate as the season plays out. The young OFers have been great lately, but both have a tendency to go on streaks. Although this post doesn't necessarily focus on pitching, my main concern lies there. Where does SP go from here? Is mono catching up to Arroyo? Is Wood having a sophomore slump kind of year? Who on earth takes the 5th spot in the rotation?

Maker_84
05-23-2011, 10:03 PM
it's time for Chapman to go back to AAA and work on becoming a starter. Not until then will our SP be good again because our bullpen is fine.

40YrRedsFan
05-23-2011, 10:07 PM
The pitching IS the main problem. Championships are won with pitching. Until we get true #1 and #2 starters, we aren't going anywhere. We may win the division again only because no Central team is very strong, but going beyond is not going to happen. This is not to say we don't have offensive problems, because we do. But when you have to come from behind every game because the starter can't make it to the 4th inning, then there is BIG problems.

40YrRedsFan
05-23-2011, 10:11 PM
Cueto, Bailey, and Ondrusek have been good overall, but the rest of the staff has been poor to just plain BAD overall. Is is time to try some kids like Boxberger (35 K's in 20 innings), or trade Alonso, Cozart, etc to get a better starter?

DocRed
05-23-2011, 10:14 PM
2 words....Dust Tee

BAKER12
05-23-2011, 10:26 PM
2 words....Dust Tee

The same guy that led the Reds to the playoffs last year. The Reds have problems, two are not Dusty and Walt.

Kevin1476
05-23-2011, 10:32 PM
Giving up 22 runs so far in two games...You have a right to panic!

DocRed
05-23-2011, 10:42 PM
The same guy that led the Reds to the playoffs last year. The Reds have problems, two are not Dusty and Walt.

Thanks Dust Tee

BAKER12
05-23-2011, 11:01 PM
Why the hate for the manager?

webbbj
05-23-2011, 11:58 PM
no reason to panic. before the season started i woulda bet good money this team makes the playoffs and will have a 5-6 game losing streak at some point. I would also bet that every playoff team is gonna lose 5-6 in a row at some point. Its baseball the season is long this kind of thing happens from time to time. just watch it unfold and dont get over emotional by day to day maneushia.

VottoFan54
05-24-2011, 12:06 AM
no reason to panic. before the season started i woulda bet good money this team makes the playoffs and will have a 5-6 game losing streak at some point. I would also bet that every playoff team is gonna lose 5-6 in a row at some point. Its baseball the season is long this kind of thing happens from time to time. just watch it unfold and dont get over emotional by day to day maneushia.

Good post :) , I wish this was more of a theme in the Sundeck than the theory that since the Reds are 3 games back than they need to go out and trade the farm in order to completly revamp the roster and stay competitive.

nux fan
05-24-2011, 01:00 AM
why do you think it is agood post, I think the state of the reds is dire, good teams dont lose six in a row, dont go 1-5 against pittsburgh(all at home) 2-4 against arizona have their opening day starter demoted to LOusiville, and have a .220 hitting shortstop batting second

webbbj
05-24-2011, 01:41 AM
why do you think it is agood post, I think the state of the reds is dire, good teams dont lose six in a row, dont go 1-5 against pittsburgh(all at home) 2-4 against arizona have their opening day starter demoted to LOusiville, and have a .220 hitting shortstop batting second

sure they do. SF had 3-8 stretch early in the season, a .224 hitting SS, .228 hitting 1B and their in 1st place

the redsox were awful in april, carl crawford is playing like ****, Dike K sucks, JD Drew sucks. And their a 1/2 game out of first.

Yanks have a lol Posada and Jeter. swisher is playing bad, and no starter they can feel too great about past CC. Their in 1st. and they just got finished losing 6 in a row.

TB lost their 1st 6 games and 8 of their 1st 9. Longoria has been injured and playing poorly, they have questions on offense, and are in 1st place.

Philly just lost 5/6 and have holes on offense.

Cleveland and STL are the only teams to not have a >3 game losing streak.

Now the Reds need to start winning but theres no need to panic this is a normal thing to happen even for top teams

NatiWolfpack24
05-24-2011, 02:25 AM
^
LAWYERED!

Billy Hamilton's Legs
05-24-2011, 08:19 AM
I think some posters here thinking that the reds will be fine need to understand that I have not panicked once these past two seasons until now. I really worry about volky and I think without a healthy volky and perhaps a mono plagued arroyo, this team simply won't be able to hang with the pitching you see in stl or other nl teams.

Larkin88
05-24-2011, 09:14 AM
The concern isn't "only three games back in May." It's that we have six more buzzsaw games on this trip with only four real starting pitchers at the moment, and only two serviceable ones.

The Cardinals aren't going to stop winning. The Brewers are looking like they've found out how to win. We very conceivably could be two or three games out of SECOND by this weekend.

I'm just curious when people think this nonsense will end. Truly, we are getting beat like a drum. Frankly, you could make the argument that we should have lost those two games to the Cubs too if they weren't abysmal. You know it's got to end, but I can't look at the calendar and circle a game that should be a favorable matchup for the next week.

This is not a good ball club at the moment, fellas. Oodles of talent and very likable guys on the roster, but no indication that they have things "together" over the last week like they did last year. Milwaukee and Saint Louis seemingly do. So it's early, but I just am having a hard time keeping my faith up, you know? Really, I'd love some tips on how to do that.

UPRedsFan
05-24-2011, 10:41 AM
It's really the disappointments in Wood and Volquez that are biting us. Wood is not the same pitcher he was last year or the league figured him out or something. Volquez may never find it again.

brm7675
05-24-2011, 12:30 PM
our pitching shouldn't surprise anyone. Two of our key pitchers missed most if not all of ST and are still working on coming into form. Both are key to the success of this team and both have shown the ability they have this season.

Our veteran pitcher spent a good portion of ST with Mono which the doctors said can takes months to recover from so to think he won't struggle at times this season is just laughable.

Our youth pitcher hasn't even had a full season of Major League ball under his belt yet, but has shown an incredible ability to pitch on this level and yes have off days. Our so called "ACE" accorinding to Dusty is not even a year from returning from TJ surgery. He was rushed back by this organization and thrust into situations he should not have been and has had past issues with his mental approach to the game.

Our other youth pitcher is still learning how to pitch on the major league level. As for our diamond in the rough pitcher, the Reds have misused and abused this kid since they removed him from the starting rotation in AAA last year and bumped him up to the Majors to sell tickets. He needs to go back to AAA back to the starting rotation and learn how to pitch.

As for the bullpen...I really don't see many major issues down there.

This teams problem is last season. No one expected much, so they had nothing to lose, they got incredible play out of Rolen for almost three quarters of a season and 2 incredible months out of Gomes. Neither will match those numbers this season. Then you add in presure on Bruce this year with the new contract, the presure on Votto with the MVP disignation and lastly a manager who has no clue how to construct a lineup card and you have what we have this season. No one really should be surprised...

brm7675
05-24-2011, 12:35 PM
The pitching IS the main problem. Championships are won with pitching. Until we get true #1 and #2 starters, we aren't going anywhere. We may win the division again only because no Central team is very strong, but going beyond is not going to happen. This is not to say we don't have offensive problems, because we do. But when you have to come from behind every game because the starter can't make it to the 4th inning, then there is BIG problems.

So you don't view the talent we have in pitching as being able to be #1 or #2 starters?

brm7675
05-24-2011, 12:36 PM
Why the hate for the manager?

Because he is Dusty (former term removed as viewed as harsh, i am sorry)

swaisuc
05-24-2011, 12:49 PM
The concern isn't "only three games back in May." It's that we have six more buzzsaw games on this trip with only four real starting pitchers at the moment, and only two serviceable ones.

The Cardinals aren't going to stop winning. The Brewers are looking like they've found out how to win. We very conceivably could be two or three games out of SECOND by this weekend.

I'm just curious when people think this nonsense will end. Truly, we are getting beat like a drum. Frankly, you could make the argument that we should have lost those two games to the Cubs too if they weren't abysmal. You know it's got to end, but I can't look at the calendar and circle a game that should be a favorable matchup for the next week.

This is not a good ball club at the moment, fellas. Oodles of talent and very likable guys on the roster, but no indication that they have things "together" over the last week like they did last year. Milwaukee and Saint Louis seemingly do. So it's early, but I just am having a hard time keeping my faith up, you know? Really, I'd love some tips on how to do that.

What makes you say that?
I don't disagree that this is an average team right now, but St.Louis and Milwaukee don't scare me any more today than 2 weeks ago. Sure, we might need 88 wins instead of 86 wins to go to the playoffs now, but lets be honest. Of all the reasons why this team may miss the postseason, the strength of the other teams in the division is about 200th.

As for the current state, the standings don't bother me, but I would say they're in a crucial stretch right now. We hear all the time about Dusty and the clubhouse. This is exactly the time for that to show up. They need to keep it together through the toughest stretch of the season and come out the other side in solid position to run down whoever once things start going more our way (both on the schedule and on the field).

krm1580
05-24-2011, 01:46 PM
This team is going to be inconsistent.

Pitching:
The truth is the perceptions of the pitching staff coming into this season were based on potential and improving upon last year, NOT past performance. Think about it, if you take Arroyo out of the mix we have no pitchers that have ever thrown 200 innings in a major league season. We have had 2 total seasons (Cueto 2010 and Volquez 2008) where guys have had a season ERA under 4.00. This team was counting on Arroyo and Cueto being as good as last year and steps up by Bailey, Volquez and Wood/Leake. So far only Bailey has stepped up. If everyone comes around we will be fine. If not its going to be a long year.

Defense:
Defensively this team has not been as good as last year. I am not sure why because Janish is way ahead of OCab, but this team has cost itself some games with errors. I don't know that this will improve.


Offense:
Right now Votto and Phillips are the only 2 consistent hitters on the team where you know what to expect day to day. Rolen is consistent as well but the power is disappearing and he is not in the line up everyday. Bruce and Stubbs are both streaky and can drive this team offensively when they are on. The problem is when they are not on it really compounds the fact we are getting very little production from LF & SS. When they are off our offense consists of Votto and Phillips and pray the catcher has a few hits. If Bruce and Stubbs produce and we can fix LF we will be fine. If not we will stuggle.

Red Rover
05-24-2011, 02:14 PM
This team is going to be inconsistent.

Offense:
Right now Votto and Phillips are the only 2 consistent hitters on the team where you know what to expect day to day. Rolen is consistent as well but the power is disappearing and he is not in the line up everyday. Bruce and Stubbs are both streaky and can drive this team offensively when they are on. The problem is when they are not on it really compounds the fact we are getting very little production from LF & SS. When they are off our offense consists of Votto and Phillips and pray the catcher has a few hits. If Bruce and Stubbs produce and we can fix LF we will be fine. If not we will stuggle.

Votto is in a minor hitting slump also over his last 10 games, although the walks are still there.

40YrRedsFan
05-24-2011, 03:58 PM
Bailey and Cueto have promise to turn into #1 and #2 starters, but I believe that Arroyo has peaked, and maybe on the way down, Wood has potential but will not be more than a #3, Leake will be a bottom of the rotation guy, LeCure is also a bottom of the rotation guy
or long man in the BP. Masset and Arredondo are your set up men, and I honestly see Chapman as the closer after Coco is gone. Guys like Smith, Fisher, Maloney, are fill ins and probably never be in a rotation. As for Volquez, your guess is as good as mine. This year the pitching has been and will be in a state of flux. Don't look for a lot of consistency. We will need some new arms next year.

40YrRedsFan
05-24-2011, 04:02 PM
Sorry, I left out Ondrusek and Bray. They would be your situational men. We could use another lefty.

brm7675
05-24-2011, 04:04 PM
Bailey and Cueto have promise to turn into #1 and #2 starters, but I believe that Arroyo has peaked, and maybe on the way down, Wood has potential but will not be more than a #3, Leake will be a bottom of the rotation guy, LeCure is also a bottom of the rotation guy
or long man in the BP. Masset and Arredondo are your set up men, and I honestly see Chapman as the closer after Coco is gone. Guys like Smith, Fisher, Maloney, are fill ins and probably never be in a rotation. As for Volquez, your guess is as good as mine. This year the pitching has been and will be in a state of flux. Don't look for a lot of consistency. We will need some new arms next year.

What do you see or don't see in Leake to lead you to think he is a bottom of the end rotation type of guy? Now, I don't believe he is a 1, but with development and growth I can see him as a very strong 2 or 3 at worse.

Also why would you waste the potential talent of Chapman as a 1 inning pitcher? Especially when you already have other pen guys who can step in and be the closer? It is much easier to find closers over 1/2 starter type of guys that Chapman can become.

40YrRedsFan
05-24-2011, 04:12 PM
I see Leake as a finesse pitcher that will not blow anyone away. If he gets in trouble, he does not have the velocity to reach back and throw it by a hitter to get a strikeout. I just don't see a soft tosser being a #1 or #2 starter. Greg Maddux started his career throwing 95 mph, but after a few years, he depended on pin point control to win games. At this time, I don't see Leake mastering the control like Maddux did.

40YrRedsFan
05-24-2011, 04:18 PM
Chapman is an all or nothing pitcher. Billy Wagner was the same way. I don't remember him ever starting. He was in there to throw as hard as he could for one inning. There have been few pitchers in history that have been starters that could still throw hard after 10 years. Nolan Ryan was an exception. Chapman is not built that way. Remember Rob Dibble? At the time, I had never seen anyone throw as hard as he could. But how long did he last...5 years. I just think these flamethrowers burn themselves out quickly and don't have the mentality to change like Maddux did.

40YrRedsFan
05-24-2011, 04:27 PM
You make good points,but I am just expressing my opinion. I have been a Reds fan for 45 years and this is what I have seen now as the norm. I just want the Reds to have a chance to win a championship. I am definitely a die hard. I wish we could wish the team to win, but that doesn't make it happen. Back in the sixties and seventies, we didn't have to deal teams buying championships like Boston & New York do now. If there had been that mentality then, we would never have seen the Big Red Machine.

brm7675
05-24-2011, 04:59 PM
Chapman is an all or nothing pitcher. Billy Wagner was the same way. I don't remember him ever starting. He was in there to throw as hard as he could for one inning. There have been few pitchers in history that have been starters that could still throw hard after 10 years. Nolan Ryan was an exception. Chapman is not built that way. Remember Rob Dibble? At the time, I had never seen anyone throw as hard as he could. But how long did he last...5 years. I just think these flamethrowers burn themselves out quickly and don't have the mentality to change like Maddux did.

you might be right on Chapman, but he could also be another Randy johnson. i would like to see what he might be. I think our bullpen has enough quality arms down there to allow Chapman the chance at AAA to learn how to go from a thrower into a pitcher. If it doesn't pan out then you convert to a closer.