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Brutus
05-29-2011, 05:22 PM
You know, I had seen somewhere in another thread that there was some hand-wringing about Joseph and his numbers this year. He's given up 26 runs in 21 innings, which at first glance is woefully alarming.

But upon further inspection, is there absolutely any reason to be worried?

He's also got 26 strikeouts in those same 21 innings. He's given up only a respectable nine walks in 21 innings. He's got a 2:1 groundball to flyball ratio and 63% strike rate, which is respectable.

There was some talk his velocity is down. I have no idea if that's the case and obviously haven't watched him so I'm only going by the numbers. But given the strength of all these peripherals, is his high ERA really anything more than a very random fluke? Perhaps there's something more at play, but it seems to me if there are issues, they're minor in the grand scheme of things.

Thoughts?

dougdirt
05-29-2011, 05:35 PM
You know, I had seen somewhere in another thread that there was some hand-wringing about Joseph and his numbers this year. He's given up 26 runs in 21 innings, which at first glance is woefully alarming.

But upon further inspection, is there absolutely any reason to be worried?

He's also got 26 strikeouts in those same 21 innings. He's given up only a respectable nine walks in 21 innings. He's got a 2:1 groundball to flyball ratio and 63% strike rate, which is respectable.

There was some talk his velocity is down. I have no idea if that's the case and obviously haven't watched him so I'm only going by the numbers. But given the strength of all these peripherals, is his high ERA really anything more than a very random fluke? Perhaps there's something more at play, but it seems to me if there are issues, they're minor in the grand scheme of things.

Thoughts?

The thing I noticed with him last season when watching him was that when he couldn't throw his slider for strikes, guys would sit on his fastball who had the understanding of the pitch. His fastball isn't good enough that guys can sit on it and he can get away with it. While I haven't seen him pitch this year, my guess is that he still struggles to throw his slider for strikes and more guys at this level are able to lay off of it and can sit fastball. So he is getting hit by those guys pretty well, but the guys with the lesser pitch recognition skills are still striking out against him because they are chasing the slider out of the zone.

I have heard rumors of the lowered velocity too, but I don't know about it for sure.

Brutus
05-29-2011, 06:07 PM
The thing I noticed with him last season when watching him was that when he couldn't throw his slider for strikes, guys would sit on his fastball who had the understanding of the pitch. His fastball isn't good enough that guys can sit on it and he can get away with it. While I haven't seen him pitch this year, my guess is that he still struggles to throw his slider for strikes and more guys at this level are able to lay off of it and can sit fastball. So he is getting hit by those guys pretty well, but the guys with the lesser pitch recognition skills are still striking out against him because they are chasing the slider out of the zone.

I have heard rumors of the lowered velocity too, but I don't know about it for sure.

Doug, on a technical basis, that sure sounds plausible as a contributing factor. But since he's striking out 11 per nine innings, I can't believe that's a major concern as a whole. I saw his LD% is 17% which is still lower than average. Though he's given up four homers in 21 innings, by all indications he's not getting hit very hard. Still, a .470 BABIP suggests he's simply having a ton of rotten luck and even if there are issues with throwing his slider for strikes, or even losing velocity, the overriding conclusion I would make is that he's still in pretty good shape.

Tony Cloninger
05-29-2011, 08:04 PM
The thing I noticed with him last season when watching him was that when he couldn't throw his slider for strikes, guys would sit on his fastball who had the understanding of the pitch. His fastball isn't good enough that guys can sit on it and he can get away with it. While I haven't seen him pitch this year, my guess is that he still struggles to throw his slider for strikes and more guys at this level are able to lay off of it and can sit fastball. So he is getting hit by those guys pretty well, but the guys with the lesser pitch recognition skills are still striking out against him because they are chasing the slider out of the zone.

I have heard rumors of the lowered velocity too, but I don't know about it for sure.


Has he tried a well placed fastball for Strike 1 as an option? Not trying to be a SA..... but even the most average fastballs, if well placed...can at least get you ahead and have his best pitch be more formidable.

He he not even spot his fastball to get ahead?

camisadelgolf
05-29-2011, 08:06 PM
I haven't seen him pitch this year, but I'm guessing that he was asked to work on his changeup, which was has always been a mediocre pitch for him.

AWA85
12-20-2011, 03:45 PM
Doug or anyone else who has seen him first hand, where do you see DoJo fitting in this year? He had a nice AFL after a pretty brutal time in Carolina. Does he fit in with Louisville to start out the year?

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=548348

cinreds21
12-20-2011, 03:50 PM
I think for Donnie it could go either way. As of right now the Reds have Horst, and Webb as lefties that could be in Louisville. I think his Fall League performance did help his cause because before that I would have almost guaranteed that he started back in Double-A. I still have a feeling he'll start 2012 back there, but I wouldn't be shocked if he was moved up to Louisville.

AWA85
12-20-2011, 04:23 PM
Good point on Horst and Webb, it seems to me Horst is really undervalued by the Reds.

mth123
12-20-2011, 06:51 PM
If Joseph regains his 2010 form, Horst and Webb will be pushed aside if necessary to make room.

I'm guessing a big bounce back is coming.

JaxRed
12-20-2011, 07:58 PM
I'd still start him in AA. 12 innings of Fall League with more hits than innings pitched and a .288 average against doesn't wipe out a ERA of almost 7.

The DARK
12-20-2011, 08:59 PM
http://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/arizona_fall_league_pitch_fx_reds_pitchers/7918606

This was a really interesting article to me, comparing him to Boxberger. His velocity still seems to be there, but he was below average on strikes thrown. The stuff looks pretty electric still, but dougdirt's impression of his struggles seem pretty spot-on.

mth123
12-21-2011, 06:15 AM
I'd still start him in AA. 12 innings of Fall League with more hits than innings pitched and a .288 average against doesn't wipe out a ERA of almost 7.

Me too, but a fast start and I wouldn't hold him back because of Horst and Webb. With Chapman moving to the rotation and Bray getting expensive as half the roster moves toward arb in 2013, I think some cheap replacements need to be lined-up by seasons end. Joseph as a lefty reliever would be one of the guys who could save the team a little cash if he can get back on track.