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Vottomatic
05-30-2011, 10:03 AM
The more and more I think about it, Kemp is the guy they need to go out and get. Kemp is still only 26 years old (turns 27 in September). He is just now coming into his best years, hopefully.

Also, this guy is an Eric Davis-type tool player, with both power and speed. He currently has 12 HR's, and hit 26 in '09 and 28 in '10. He is currently on pace to knock in over 100 rbi's, hit 30+ HR's, and possibly steal 30 to 40 bases (he has 13 right now). He is OPSing a career best .944 right now. All of his numbers are trending UPWARD. And he is batting .313 right now too.

Stick him in the 4-hole (yes, he is a righty so Dusty will be happy), and I think this lineup takes off, along with giving Votto protection. Kemp goes from a team in disarray to another team in disarray, uh, er.....I mean, in the thick of things :D.

He is making $6.5M this season and heads to arbitration after the season. Cordero won't be back after the season, and neither will Gomes. Hernandez probably won't be either. That's a savings of $16M-$17M.

Stubbs CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Kemp LF
Bruce RF
Rolen 3B
Hernanigan C
Janish SS
Pitcher

If this team was willing to acquire both Kemp and Reyes, this team wins the division. But they can't afford it.

ezluke
05-30-2011, 10:37 AM
I can't imagine what it would take to get him, it would empty our farm system. Do we even have the pitchers in our system that could swing that trade? The ones who have seen time on the big league roster aren't going to be enough.

Trading for him now is definitely buying high, the time to do it was when we were begging for him at the deadline last year. Makes me wonder if we would't do it last year when he was cheaper, I doubt we get him now

texasdave
05-30-2011, 11:52 AM
If this team was willing to acquire both Kemp and Reyes, this team wins the division. But they can't afford it.

Better go get Tim Lincecum and Josh Johnson just to be on the safe side. :)

texasdave
05-30-2011, 12:00 PM
Kemp would be a great target. I think there is zero chance of that happening though.

Krawhitham
05-30-2011, 12:56 PM
If this team was willing to acquire both Kemp and Reyes, this team wins the division. But they can't afford it.


If the get either one they will make the playoffs. They might make the playoffs without either, Berkman will breakdown and HGH may never get started, while the Brew crew will be sellers because they will not settle for just draft picks for losing Prince. But they need an ACE for the playoffs so if either Woods or Cueto do not become that needed ACE they need to get one before July 31st

jwmann2
05-30-2011, 04:21 PM
Great player, but I love Stubbs and the rest of our outfield. They all came up together in Louisville, we have great chemistry, if you look at the pitching numbers, that is where we are hurting. We could not afford Kemp and personally the front office of our teams never seem to make the moves we want to make. Why? Because we don't know their finances.

brm7675
05-30-2011, 04:34 PM
Both Walt and Dusty see no problem with our present OF, what leads you to believe they would make a deal to bring another OF in?

Vottomatic
05-30-2011, 07:29 PM
Both Walt and Dusty see no problem with our present OF, what leads you to believe they would make a deal to bring another OF in?

Do Lewis, Gomes, or Heisey provide protection for Votto in the 4-spot?

1. No opposing pitcher fears any of them.
2. None of them have quality stats to put fear into opposing pitchers.
3. Dusty prefers a righty in the 4-spot between Votto and Bruce.

Kemp has an above .300 average to match both Votto and Phillips. But he has 12 HR's and 35 rbi which tops both Votto and Phillips, too.

There should be no question that this would be a HUGE UPGRADE in LF and at the CLEANUP SPOT IN THE BATTING ORDER.

It's a such a no-brainer, it takes no brain not to consider it.

I also understand that trades on paper don't always work in reality. But this move should definitely be considered a HUGE UPGRADE that protects Votto in the lineup, strengthens LF, adds speed, maintains the RH, LH, RH, LH part of the lineup, and allows Rolen to move down to 6th in the batting order.

Again.......it's a no-brainer UPGRADE. :thumbup:

BAKER12
05-30-2011, 11:39 PM
What do you guys expect Walt and Dusty to say, "Our guys all suck and we are desperate for help in left field and short"

davereds24
05-30-2011, 11:51 PM
Enough of these ridiculous trade ideas, this team won't have a 100mil payroll. Most of the savings from Coco and Ramon is going to increases for Votto, Bruce, and Cueto. You also have small increases for BA, BP, Chapman, Yonder, Hanigan. Then you have Bray and Masset who should get big bumps in ARB and guys like Bailey and Volquez who still have a chance at a big check.

redsfan1995
05-31-2011, 12:20 AM
To get Kemp my guess of what the reds would have to give up is
Heisey or Stubbs
Mesarosco or Grandal
Mike Leake
Juan Francisco

OGB
05-31-2011, 12:49 AM
To get Kemp my guess of what the reds would have to give up is
Heisey or Stubbs
Mesarosco or Grandal
Mike Leake
Juan Francisco

As long as it was heisey, id do that deal

BAKER12
05-31-2011, 12:51 AM
Would not trade Stubbs, will regret big time

Vottomatic
05-31-2011, 09:36 AM
To get Kemp my guess of what the reds would have to give up is
Heisey or Stubbs
Mesarosco or Grandal
Mike Leake
Juan Francisco

I think that's too much. Grandal is a #1 pick and doing nothing to dispute that with his performance.

Heisey is a backup outfielder who has shown glimpses, and comes cheap.

I hate trading Francisco because he is heir apparent to Rolen at 3B unless they think Frazier is a better option?

Heisey, Grandal, and either Francisco or Frazier is all I think it would take. No pitchers are being exchanged, so don't include them.

Vottomatic
05-31-2011, 09:57 AM
Enough of these ridiculous trade ideas, this team won't have a 100mil payroll. Most of the savings from Coco and Ramon is going to increases for Votto, Bruce, and Cueto. You also have small increases for BA, BP, Chapman, Yonder, Hanigan. Then you have Bray and Masset who should get big bumps in ARB and guys like Bailey and Volquez who still have a chance at a big check.

Gone next year:
Cordero = $1M buyout - ($12.125M) = $11.125M savings
Hernandez = Free Agent - ($3M) = $3M savings
Renteria = Free Agent - ($2.1M) = $2.1M savings
Gomes = FA - ($1.75M) = $1.75M savings
Lewis = They will decline arbitration on him = $.9M savings
Burton, J. = injured, they will decline arbitration on him = $.75M savings

Total savings = $19.625M savings

High price players salaries next year:
Arroyo = $12M
Phillips = $11.5M
Rolen = $8.2M
Votto = $11.5M
Chapman = $4.7M
Cueto = $5.4M
Bruce = $5.1M
Masset = $3M (estimate he'll get in arbitration)
Volquez = $2M (estimate he'll get in arbitration since he's been sent down)
Alonso = $1.4M
Cairo = $1M
Bray = $1M (arbitration estimate)
Hanigan = $1.3M
Arredondo = $1M (arb. estimate)
Bailey = $3M (arb. estimate comparable to Cueto's salary this year)
Janish = $1.5M (arb. estimate)
15 other players are roughly $.5M = $7.5M
Total Player payroll = $81.1M (small increase from this year's $80.826M payroll

Add Kemp and you're probably close to $90M after his arbitration. So maybe they have to trade away some additional salary? It happens.

Salaries based on Cot's Baseball Contracts: https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dEhmMDBGaXRWeDNWdWs3eXhtOTFVX0E&output=html

texasdave
05-31-2011, 10:00 AM
What do you guys expect Walt and Dusty to say, "Our guys all suck and we are desperate for help in left field and short"

I would expect Walt to be very quiet on the subject. The team has had a hole in LF since they traded away Adam Dunn in August of 2008. We are one day away from it being June of 2011. Nearly three years and the Reds still have a huge problem in LF. Yes, I would definitely expect the GM who hasn't filled that glaring need in three years to be very, very quiet on the subject.

Vottomatic
05-31-2011, 10:19 AM
I would expect Walt to be very quiet on the subject. The team has had a hole in LF since they traded away Adam Dunn in August of 2008. We are one day away from it being June of 2011. Nearly three years and the Reds still have a huge problem in LF. Yes, I would definitely expect the GM who hasn't filled that glaring need in three years to be very, very quiet on the subject.

It's pretty evident that the issue is a money/payroll increase, unfortunately.

texasdave
05-31-2011, 10:41 AM
Maybe I am overstepping my authority here, but I am putting Vottomatic in charge of making the deal that gets Kemp in a Reds' uniform. Don't worry about cost or prospects or any of that trivial stuff. Just make the deal and I will smooth it over with Walt and Bob. Git-r-done!

brm7675
05-31-2011, 12:01 PM
It's pretty evident that the issue is a money/payroll increase, unfortunately.

Maybe, but i really believe that both Dusty and Walt believe Gomes will 'turn it around' and will wait and give him every chance.

krm1580
05-31-2011, 12:01 PM
If this team was willing to acquire both Kemp and Reyes, this team wins the division. But they can't afford it.

I agree these guys would be a big upgrade from what we are currently trotting out to LF and SS, but the Reds have scored more runs than any team in baseball. Unless Kemp and Reyes can go into the starting rotation and put up 7+ innings of sub 3.00 era for the rest of the season I don't think they are going to cure what ails this team right now.

5TimeWSChamps
05-31-2011, 01:08 PM
I actually wanted us to go after him in the offseason when he had a down year. The whole Dodgers team was a wreck last year and I thought we could have gotten him at a cheaper price than what it would cost us now

mu4103
05-31-2011, 01:20 PM
I actually wanted us to go after him in the offseason when he had a down year. The whole Dodgers team was a wreck last year and I thought we could have gotten him at a cheaper price than what it would cost us now

I agree, Kemp probably would have been a good target last year. After his start this year, his value is much greater. Personally, I think Stubbs is over-rated. I have been really impressed with his improvement this year. But his number of K's and low OBP make him less valuable. He keeps improving, but the K numbers are just too high. There are not many CFers with his power numbers, speed, and great defense. So it is hard to give up on him, but the K numbers and low OBP make him an interesting case.

Hillsdale87
05-31-2011, 02:01 PM
Maybe, but i really believe that both Dusty and Walt believe Gomes will 'turn it around' and will wait and give him every chance.

I think you're too pessimistic about Dusty and Walt. Gomes is not getting much playing time right now. If he continues to hit like he has the last 2 games he'll be fine, but I don't think they're going to let him work through another prolonged slump.

brm7675
05-31-2011, 02:19 PM
I think you're too pessimistic about Dusty and Walt. Gomes is not getting much playing time right now. If he continues to hit like he has the last 2 games he'll be fine, but I don't think they're going to let him work through another prolonged slump.

Why not, they let him continue to play last year after his numbers declined and then resigned him. They have played him much more then his numbers warrent. They will continue to run him out there, especially after last night and Sunday they will see him "coming" around.

Hillsdale87
05-31-2011, 04:17 PM
Why not, they let him continue to play last year after his numbers declined and then resigned him. They have played him much more then his numbers warrent. They will continue to run him out there, especially after last night and Sunday they will see him "coming" around.

Well he was sitting on the bench all of last week. I'm fine with him playing against lefties, and he's playing tonight but he's had good success off Greinke. I think Jonny as the everyday LF is done

texasdave
05-31-2011, 04:22 PM
Well he was sitting on the bench all of last week. I'm fine with him playing against lefties, and he's playing tonight but he's had good success off Greinke. I think Jonny as the everyday LF is done

Yes, he lit Greinke up back in 2005. Last year he was 0-4 with 3 Ks. Which is more relevant?

brm7675
05-31-2011, 04:55 PM
Well he was sitting on the bench all of last week. I'm fine with him playing against lefties, and he's playing tonight but he's had good success off Greinke. I think Jonny as the everyday LF is done

Under normal leadership I would agree, but we don't have that in Cincy. Just about any other team with the depth of talent we have would hav DFA'ed Gomes weeks ago.

Reds
05-31-2011, 05:08 PM
According to the E:60 story on Gomes he's our everyday left fielder.

BluegrassRedleg
06-05-2011, 02:32 AM
Destroyed us today. Made me drool thinking of him playing half his games in GABP.

Vottomatic
06-05-2011, 01:10 PM
Destroyed us today. Made me drool thinking of him playing half his games in GABP.

The Reds would have 3 MVP candidates with Kemp batting 4th. Also maintains Dusty's lefty (Votto), righty (Kemp), lefty (Bruce) lineup.

Kemp makes $6.5M this year.

I could live with Janish at SS (although I'd like to see Cozart) and Rolen at 3B if they acquired Kemp.

lonewolf371
06-05-2011, 03:33 PM
I don't care how good Kemp is, when you're giving up 7-11 runs and walking pitchers with the bases loaded, you're not going to win very often.

Redleg
06-05-2011, 05:12 PM
A lineup with kemp and Reyes would be amazing. You would have no farm system left and probably couldn't afford it but they would by far have the best offense in baseball.

Vottomatic
06-05-2011, 05:52 PM
A lineup with kemp and Reyes would be amazing. You would have no farm system left and probably couldn't afford it but they would by far have the best offense in baseball.

Where is our farm system going to play in terms of the major league Reds?

Alonso has no place to go.
Francisco has to wait until atleast '13 when Rolen's contract is up.
Grandal, unless he changes positions, is behind Mesoraco in terms of being called up as a catcher.
Do they re-up Phillips or let him walk?

I can only see needing Mesoraco to replace Hernandez at catcher. Maybe Frazier or Valaika for third and second base options. But I think there will be a riot if they let Phillips walk. The team seems committed to Stubbs and Bruce in the OF. Obvioiusly Votto at 1B.

I don't always understand this concern over so-called gutting the farm system. Seems like they have no place to move up to anyway.

Newman4
06-05-2011, 06:10 PM
Where is our farm system going to play in terms of the major league Reds?

Alonso has no place to go.
Francisco has to wait until atleast '13 when Rolen's contract is up.
Grandal, unless he changes positions, is behind Mesoraco in terms of being called up as a catcher.
Do they re-up Phillips or let him walk?

I can only see needing Mesoraco to replace Hernandez at catcher. Maybe Frazier or Valaika for third and second base options. But I think there will be a riot if they let Phillips walk. The team seems committed to Stubbs and Bruce in the OF. Obvioiusly Votto at 1B.

I don't always understand this concern over so-called gutting the farm system. Seems like they have no place to move up to anyway.
I agree. Our "prospects" are all getting older and losing value each day. Trade them for something useful while you can.

Redleg
06-05-2011, 06:20 PM
I feel like trading away leake or wood is a bad idea because Bailey is hurt all the time. I wouldn't mind trading Alonso sappelt heisey or Francisco. I think the reds do need to make a move sooner than later as the cardinals and brewers keep on winning. I wouldnt trade cozart or b. Hamilton either.

kfm
06-05-2011, 08:15 PM
Where is our farm system going to play in terms of the major league Reds?

Alonso has no place to go.
Francisco has to wait until atleast '13 when Rolen's contract is up.
Grandal, unless he changes positions, is behind Mesoraco in terms of being called up as a catcher.
Do they re-up Phillips or let him walk?

I can only see needing Mesoraco to replace Hernandez at catcher. Maybe Frazier or Valaika for third and second base options. But I think there will be a riot if they let Phillips walk. The team seems committed to Stubbs and Bruce in the OF. Obvioiusly Votto at 1B.

I don't always understand this concern over so-called gutting the farm system. Seems like they have no place to move up to anyway.

I agree, with the exception of the trading away pitching depth, I am all for turning some of these prospects into proven players. There is no place for these guys to go. I am watching Louisville destroy Columbus for the third straight game and looking at Dorn, Mesoraco, Alonso, Frazier, Francisco, Valaika all guys who seem like they are ready to help a major league team. Until the Reds make some very tough serious moves there is no place for these guys. I want them to keep Mesoraco and Sappelt and they will need someone to play third but outside of that why can't they turn these guys into better starting pitching or a shortstop?

Number_Fourteen
06-05-2011, 10:05 PM
Great target, IS NOT happening, end of story.

Lockdwn11
06-05-2011, 11:00 PM
I wanted to trade Adam Dunn for Matt Kemp years ago and most people thought I was crazy.

5TimeWSChamps
06-06-2011, 12:44 PM
Sad thing is, we could have gotten him pretty cheaply over the offseason

10xWSChamps
06-07-2011, 02:51 AM
There's absolutely no way the Dodgers are trading Kemp. He is a superstar in the making and very young.

They are getting a 3 billion dollar local TV deal in about two weeks.

There's been zero rumors abiout them shopping anyone, let alone Matt freaking Kemp.

lonewolf371
06-07-2011, 02:57 AM
There's absolutely no way the Dodgers are trading Kemp. He is a superstar in the making and very young.

They are getting a 3 billion dollar local TV deal in about two weeks.

There's been zero rumors abiout them shopping anyone, let alone Matt freaking Kemp.
Actually, there have been rumors, and the TV deal probably won't save the team.