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BAKER12
06-01-2011, 01:32 PM
Local Jefferson City, MO baseball guru and frequent talk show guest threw this trade out that is being worked on:

Kemp, Carroll, Billingsley for Stubbs, Wood, Leake, Cozart, Hanigan

Natty Redlocks
06-01-2011, 01:35 PM
I'll believe it when BUSTER OLNEY reports it

BAKER12
06-01-2011, 01:39 PM
Other than Hanigan, could see something like that

brm7675
06-01-2011, 01:42 PM
Local Jefferson City, MO baseball guru and frequent talk show guest threw this trade out that is being worked on:

Kemp, Carroll, Billingsley for Stubbs, Wood, Leake, Cozart, Hanigan

No way i make that deal...:thumbdown:

R_Webb18
06-01-2011, 01:48 PM
if we got rid of stubs who plays center? what does this do.

mikdavrut
06-01-2011, 01:58 PM
Man, I hope that is NOT in any way true. Wood AND Leake? No way. Not to mention Stubbs as well. Cozart/Hanigan, ok, but the other 3 for those players.....NO :thumbdown:

DocRed
06-01-2011, 01:59 PM
Can't trade Stubbs.

brm7675
06-01-2011, 02:05 PM
I would go with:

Kemp, Carroll, Billingsley for Heisey, Leake, Yonder, Hernandez

signalhome
06-01-2011, 02:07 PM
Kemp's defense is atrocious. I do not want him in center field, period. No way I make that deal.

brm7675
06-01-2011, 02:09 PM
Kemp's defense is atrocious. I do not want him in center field, period. No way I make that deal.

You don't play in CF, he moves to LF, then you have kemp/Stubbs and Bruce...;-)

texasdave
06-01-2011, 02:28 PM
Fangraphs has Cincinnati as a possible Kemp destination if Kemp becomes available.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trade-targets-center-field/

signalhome
06-01-2011, 02:29 PM
You don't play in CF, he moves to LF, then you have kemp/Stubbs and Bruce...;-)

I'm referring to the OP's trade, which involves Stubbs; that would force Kemp to play CF.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trade-targets-center-field/

Looks like more than a few people are predicting the Reds as Kemp's landing spot this year. I'd be fine with having him in left, but there's no way I'd move Stubbs in the deal.

signalhome
06-01-2011, 02:32 PM
Fangraphs has Cincinnati as a possible Kemp destination if Kemp becomes available.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trade-targets-center-field/

Hah, looks like we spotted that article around the same time.

Krawhitham
06-01-2011, 02:36 PM
Local Jefferson City, MO baseball guru and frequent talk show guest threw this trade out that is being worked on:

Kemp, Carroll, Billingsley for Stubbs, Wood, Leake, Cozart, Hanigan

This does not solve either LF or SS, getting Kemp would be nice if you were not going to lose Stubbs

That is 4 players for 2 because Carroll does not count.

Carroll he is 37 with no range, power, or speed

You would only control Kemp through 2012

is Wood, Leake, & Cozart worth Billingsley?

I say no. I understand you have to give talent to get talent, I just do not see how this helps the team.

Kemp is a slight upgrade to stubbs this season, but stubbs is getting better every year and the could control stubbs for 4 more season

Krawhitham
06-01-2011, 02:39 PM
Kemp's defense is atrocious. I do not want him in center field, period. No way I make that deal.

True he has 3 errors but his Zone Rating is a lot higher than Stubbs

8.845 VS 12.164

signalhome
06-01-2011, 02:42 PM
This does not solve either LF or SS, getting Kemp would be nice if you were not going to lose Stubbs

That is 4 players for 2 because Carroll does not count.

Carroll he is 37 with no range, power, or speed

You would only control Kemp through 2012

is Wood, Leake, & Cozart worth Billingsley?

I say no. I understand you have to give talent to get talent, I just do not see how this helps the team.

Kemp is a slight upgrade to stubbs this season, but stubbs is getting better every year and the could control stubbs for 4 more season

Kemp's WAR so far this year: 2.2
Stubbs' WAR so far this year: 2.2

Kemp's defense is pretty awful, and it takes a major toll on his overall value. I'd argue that replacing Stubbs with Kemp isn't even a slight upgrade; it would be a wash at best. As you've alluded to, it makes zero sense to make any deal that involves Stubbs and Kemp. Kemp just doesn't have the range to play CF. However, he has a chance at being average to slightly below-average in LF (which would make him a monster player, given his current numbers), so I'm not against giving up some guys to get him in LF.

signalhome
06-01-2011, 02:52 PM
True he has 3 errors but his Zone Rating is a lot higher than Stubbs

8.845 VS 12.164

I wasn't looking at errors; errors is a pretty poor way to judge a defender. UZR has a vast separation between them. Stubbs leads the NL with 6.3 so far, while Kemp sits at next-to-last with -6.8. Kemp's was -25.7 last year, which is beyond awful. The guy just can't play CF.

Edit: Also, not too high on Zone Rating. Places too much emphasis on simply making plays within your zone and not enough on making plays outside your zone. Its methods of calculation may have changed since then, though, since I remember ZR being recorded in a .xxx format, like .900 or similar. I'll have to look it up and see.

AintlifeGrande
06-01-2011, 02:53 PM
I'll believe it when BUSTER OLNEY reports it

:D

RedsFan_26
06-01-2011, 02:53 PM
Local Jefferson City, MO baseball guru and frequent talk show guest threw this trade out that is being worked on:

Kemp, Carroll, Billingsley for Stubbs, Wood, Leake, Cozart, Hanigan

What do you mean by, the trade is being worked on??

brm7675
06-01-2011, 02:54 PM
If this deal is done someone just needs to slap Walt.

Vottomatic
06-01-2011, 03:01 PM
Local Jefferson City, MO baseball guru and frequent talk show guest threw this trade out that is being worked on:

Kemp, Carroll, Billingsley for Stubbs, Wood, Leake, Cozart, Hanigan

The Reds get screwed in that deal completely, talentwise and financially.

Stubbs, Wood, Leake, and Cozart are all making the league minimum, and Hanigan is making $1.3M this season. Billingsley is making $6.275M in '11, then $9M in '12, $11M in '13 and $12M in '14. Kemp is making $6.5M this season and heads to arbitration for next season. Carroll makes $2.3M this year and is a FA after.

1. Reds aren't adding that much payroll.
2. Because Reds are small market, they aren't giving up 3 guys on the major league roster and 1 on the way, making league minimum.
3. Reds aren't going to part with 2 young quality pitchers.

This proposed deal is too one-sided and has to be a complete joke.

Vottomatic
06-01-2011, 03:10 PM
This does not solve either LF or SS, getting Kemp would be nice if you were not going to lose Stubbs

That is 4 players for 2 because Carroll does not count.

Carroll he is 37 with no range, power, or speed

You would only control Kemp through 2012

is Wood, Leake, & Cozart worth Billingsley?

I say no. I understand you have to give talent to get talent, I just do not see how this helps the team.

Kemp is a slight upgrade to stubbs this season, but stubbs is getting better every year and the could control stubbs for 4 more season

1. I'm hoping that trade proposal is a starting point of what the Dodgers started asking for.
2. Hopefully the Reds have come back with different players because I'm all for obtaining Kemp and Billingsley.
3. No way I'm trading both Leake and Wood.
4. Sure seems like other teams are able to trade top prospects to get these kind of deals done, but this seems odd that they want 4 major leaguers of ours.

I'd offer......

One of Leake, Wood, or Volquez.
I'd then include Alonso and Grandal. That's two #1 picks.
Then I'd offer either Cozart or Frazier, their pick.

I think that's plenty.

RedsFan_26
06-01-2011, 03:12 PM
Is this a rumor or is it actually been proposed and in the works??

Vottomatic
06-01-2011, 03:20 PM
Is this a rumor or is it actually been proposed and in the works??

That's what the Dodgers want for Kemp, Billingsley and Carroll.

The Reds have countered with Arroyo, Volquez, Maloney, Lecure, Reineke, Cochran, Klinker, Dorn, Janish, Corky Miller, and 5 single A players. ;)

RedsFan_26
06-01-2011, 03:21 PM
That's what the Dodgers want for Kemp, Billingsley and Carroll.

The Reds have countered with Arroyo, Volquez, Maloney, Lecure, Reineke, Cochran, Klinker, Dorn, Janish, Corky Miller, and 5 single A players. ;)

Good deal :laugh:

But it seriously is in the works?

texasdave
06-01-2011, 03:26 PM
1. I'm hoping that trade proposal is a starting point of what the Dodgers started asking for.
2. Hopefully the Reds have come back with different players because I'm all for obtaining Kemp and Billingsley.
3. No way I'm trading both Leake and Wood.
4. Sure seems like other teams are able to trade top prospects to get these kind of deals done, but this seems odd that they want 4 major leaguers of ours.

I'd offer......

One of Leake, Wood, or Volquez.
I'd then include Alonso and Grandal. That's two #1 picks.
Then I'd offer either Cozart or Frazier, their pick.

I think that's plenty.

How does this address the money issue? If the original deal was a no-go because of money, I don't see essentially any change in that area.

smixsell
06-01-2011, 03:27 PM
Local Jefferson City, MO baseball guru and frequent talk show guest threw this trade out that is being worked on:

Kemp, Carroll, Billingsley for Stubbs, Wood, Leake, Cozart, Hanigan

That would be a garbage trade for us. NO CHANCE OF HAPPENING. Utter rubbish.

Vottomatic
06-01-2011, 03:29 PM
How does this address the money issue? If the original deal was a no-go because of money, I don't see essentially any change in that area.

It doesn't address the money issue. No way do the Reds add $13M in payroll.

But if they are considering it, that's the guys I offer back.

RedsFan_26
06-01-2011, 03:30 PM
How about only trying to aqcuire Kemp, or only trying to aqcuire Billingsley, not lumping them together.

texasdave
06-01-2011, 03:31 PM
It doesn't address the money issue. No way do the Reds add $13M in payroll.

But if they are considering it, that's the guys I offer back.

Oh, okay. Yours was more of a hypothetical offer. If the Reds take on that much in salary for 2012 it would be goodbye Phillips for certain.

5TimeWSChamps
06-01-2011, 03:32 PM
If we are going to give up any prospects, they need to take Arroyo back to cover the salary disparity

defender
06-01-2011, 03:38 PM
I think the Dodgers want Stubbs. He is a decent pick up for a team that wants to cut salary and contend in a a few years. I don't think they want to dump one of thier best players for prospects. Eliminate Carroll, Cozart and one of Leake/Wood from the deal and I would do it.

texasdave
06-01-2011, 03:45 PM
If there is a certain level of truth to this rumor then:

1) It is nice to see that Walt is targeting players such as Kemp and Billingsley.
2) Maybe the money is not such a big issue. Why would Walt even bother if he knew for certain that the money side of the trade could not be overcome? I don't think Walt would be the type to haggle over players if he knew deep down that the trade could not be consummated in the end because of salaries.

RedsFan_26
06-01-2011, 03:47 PM
If there is a certain level of truth to this rumor then:

1) It is nice to see that Walt is targeting players such as Kemp and Billingsley.
2) Maybe the money is not such a big issue. Why would Walt even bother if he knew for certain that the money side of the trade could not be overcome? I don't think Walt would be the type to haggle over players if he knew deep down that the trade could not be consummated in the end because of salaries.

I feel the same. Walt knows what he is doing and if this trade happens he will not get cheated, and it will benefit both sides.

Vottomatic
06-01-2011, 03:51 PM
If there is a certain level of truth to this rumor then:

1) It is nice to see that Walt is targeting players such as Kemp and Billingsley.
2) Maybe the money is not such a big issue. Why would Walt even bother if he knew for certain that the money side of the trade could not be overcome? I don't think Walt would be the type to haggle over players if he knew deep down that the trade could not be consummated in the end because of salaries.

That's how I feel.

1. I don't think it will happen because of the large increase in payroll.
2. BUT......if this is being discussed, then obviously Reds are considering adding this much payroll.
3. IF THEY ARE...........then I think the original trade is too much for the Reds to give. Trying to add 2 starters and giving up 4 starters is somewhat stupid in my opinion. Losing Hanigan would weaken our catching tandem. Plus, I was expecting Ramon to be gone next year and Mesoraco to team with Hanigan. Obviously you have to give up one good young pitcher to obtain more of a veteran type pitcher. But giving up two is stupid. And to obatin Kemp, they obviously want a young stud OFer, which makes sense.

I'd just feel better with an OF of Bruce, Stubbs and Kemp than an OF of Bruce (RF), Kemp (CF), and Gomes/Heisey/Lewis. The point of acquiring Kemp is to solidify LF while not weakening the other 2 positions.

Wonderful Monds
06-01-2011, 08:07 PM
Billingsley and Kemp would be nice. I wouldn't give up Stubbs in that trade though. I wouldn't give up any starting players, nor would I give them Leake AND Wood both. Depth is obviously something we don't have enough of this season. Id be willing to substitute Alonso and Heisey for Stubbs, and Volquez for Wood. I think that's equal value, and the most I'd be willing to go.

Natty Redlocks
06-02-2011, 12:00 AM
My first thought about this trade idea was that the Reds did not have the money for Kemp and Billingsley. But after thinking about it, they could afford it if they traded Votto. Which is ridiculous, of course, but........Bruce could bat third, Kemp fourth, and Alonso fifth. And the Votto money could pay for Kemp and Billingsley, not to mention the outstanding prospect(s) obtained by 2+ years of Votto. It seems crazy, but ya never know. Bruce and Alonso's hot streaks make it easier to take if they shopped
Votto. But realistically, it would never happen.

BAKER12
06-02-2011, 12:04 AM
I am blaming all this on Dusty Baker, everything wrong with sports in Cincy is his fault. Would have beat the 49ers in both Super Bowls if he was not alive.

Vottomatic
06-02-2011, 01:32 PM
I am blaming all this on Dusty Baker, everything wrong with sports in Cincy is his fault. Would have beat the 49ers in both Super Bowls if he was not alive.

Yeah, I heard Dusty was partying and doing drugs with Stanley Wilson before the first Super Bowl. ;)

OGB
06-02-2011, 04:16 PM
I'd offer......

One of Leake, Wood, or Volquez.
I'd then include Alonso and Grandal. That's two #1 picks.
Then I'd offer either Cozart or Frazier, their pick.

I think that's plenty.

I was thinking the exact same thing. Hopefully you could get them to take Volquez since Wood and Leake will be a lot more affordable over the next couple seasons.
Hell, I'd pull back the option of Cozart or Frazier and just offer Cozart and Francisco. I think Juan is a dead end in this organization at this point.

lonewolf371
06-02-2011, 04:17 PM
The Reds get screwed in that deal completely, talentwise and financially.

Stubbs, Wood, Leake, and Cozart are all making the league minimum, and Hanigan is making $1.3M this season. Billingsley is making $6.275M in '11, then $9M in '12, $11M in '13 and $12M in '14. Kemp is making $6.5M this season and heads to arbitration for next season. Carroll makes $2.3M this year and is a FA after.

1. Reds aren't adding that much payroll.
2. Because Reds are small market, they aren't giving up 3 guys on the major league roster and 1 on the way, making league minimum.
3. Reds aren't going to part with 2 young quality pitchers.

This proposed deal is too one-sided and has to be a complete joke.
The Reds don't lose in terms of talent with that deal. They would give up a bunch of average major league players and get two All-Star players in return.

My biggest problem is probably with losing Stubbs. He's awesome defensively. That being said, in a band box like GABP where everything flies out of the park defense matters a little bit less than it would in Dodger Stadium.


True he has 3 errors but his Zone Rating is a lot higher than Stubbs

8.845 VS 12.164
Kemp isn't close to Stubbs defensively. It's like comparing an elephant and a chihuahua in terms of body weight. Check UZR.


1. I'm hoping that trade proposal is a starting point of what the Dodgers started asking for.
2. Hopefully the Reds have come back with different players because I'm all for obtaining Kemp and Billingsley.
3. No way I'm trading both Leake and Wood.
4. Sure seems like other teams are able to trade top prospects to get these kind of deals done, but this seems odd that they want 4 major leaguers of ours.

I'd offer......

One of Leake, Wood, or Volquez.
I'd then include Alonso and Grandal. That's two #1 picks.
Then I'd offer either Cozart or Frazier, their pick.

I think that's plenty.
The problem is that the Dodgers could be targeting Stubbs. He fits their ballpark perfectly with his defense.

BluegrassRedleg
06-02-2011, 05:04 PM
I think a lot of people in this discussion are vastly over-valuing Stubbs. He's a better defensive player than Kemp, without a doubt, but we're not talking about a Gold-Glover, either. From gap to gap, he's outstanding, thanks to his raw speed. But he's butchered many plays hit deep right at him, especially around the wall.

At the plate, Stubbs is an inconsistent mess. (That's putting it kindly.) He can crush one 390 feet opposite field, but he can also wiff in almost 50% of his plate appearances like the run he's on now. To me, his Ks are completely inexcusable.

R_Webb18
06-02-2011, 06:48 PM
I think a lot of people in this discussion are vastly over-valuing Stubbs. He's a better defensive player than Kemp, without a doubt, but we're not talking about a Gold-Glover, either. From gap to gap, he's outstanding, thanks to his raw speed. But he's butchered many plays hit deep right at him, especially around the wall.

At the plate, Stubbs is an inconsistent mess. (That's putting it kindly.) He can crush one 390 feet opposite field, but he can also wiff in almost 50% of his plate appearances like the run he's on now. To me, his Ks are completely inexcusable.

not at all the trade just makes no sense

lonewolf371
06-02-2011, 08:22 PM
I think a lot of people in this discussion are vastly over-valuing Stubbs. He's a better defensive player than Kemp, without a doubt, but we're not talking about a Gold-Glover, either. From gap to gap, he's outstanding, thanks to his raw speed. But he's butchered many plays hit deep right at him, especially around the wall.

At the plate, Stubbs is an inconsistent mess. (That's putting it kindly.) He can crush one 390 feet opposite field, but he can also wiff in almost 50% of his plate appearances like the run he's on now. To me, his Ks are completely inexcusable.
Yes, we are talking about a gold glover. He's just as good defensively as Gonzalez and Victorino and both of those guys won gold gloves last year. Victorino and Gonzalez just have bigger names (although Andres Torres was probably better than all three).

Redeye fly
06-02-2011, 09:32 PM
Local Jefferson City, MO baseball guru and frequent talk show guest threw this trade out that is being worked on:

Kemp, Carroll, Billingsley for Stubbs, Wood, Leake, Cozart, Hanigan

That would be an awful trade for the Reds imo.

I understand it's going to take pieces to get a guy like Kemp. But no way do I do a deal in which I'm giving up BOTH Leake and Wood and getting one arm back who is not an ace in return.

I'm not saying Wood and Leake brings an established or potential ace back in return. But I don't give up 2 arms who have their best days ahead of them to get 1 decent one back in return. I also fail to see to a player like Carroll brings the Reds that is substantially more than what Miguel Cairo or Edgar Renteria bring them. We'd be getting another older utility player on a club that may or may not be a serious contender for the post season this year.

I might do a potential deal like that if the Dodgers replace Carroll with someone else or at least add in a decent pitching prospect.

Redeye fly
06-02-2011, 10:51 PM
The Reds don't lose in terms of talent with that deal. They would give up a bunch of average major league players and get two All-Star players in return.

My biggest problem is probably with losing Stubbs. He's awesome defensively. That being said, in a band box like GABP where everything flies out of the park defense matters a little bit less than it would in Dodger Stadium.


Kemp isn't close to Stubbs defensively. It's like comparing an elephant and a chihuahua in terms of body weight. Check UZR.


The problem is that the Dodgers could be targeting Stubbs. He fits their ballpark perfectly with his defense.

Not a bad post, but regarding your post about trading average major league talent for 2 All Stars, in a sense yes.... BUT

As I said, and this is me giving my opinion, I am not, I repeat NOT giving up two promising young arms and getting one arm who is not an ace back in return. He would probably be the Reds ace, but he's not a true #1 starter. We thought we had pitching depth this year. Maybe we do, maybe we don't. So far it hasn't worked out. Point being, I wouldn't give up 2 pitchers for 1 guy who's a #2 at best. The Dodgers have to give me something other than Jamey Carroll or give me at least a pitching prospect in return who's projectable as a contributor of some sort at the major league level. It can be a bottom of the rotation or middle of the rotation type of arm, but something.

Carroll would serve absolutely no purpose on this team. You're going to have Miguel Cairo, Edgar Renteria, AND Jamey Carroll all on the same team??? I mean it almost offends me that he would be mentioned in a trade like that. That's such a waste of roster space on the Reds part that it's not even funny.

lonewolf371
06-02-2011, 11:20 PM
Not a bad post, but regarding your post about trading average major league talent for 2 All Stars, in a sense yes.... BUT

As I said, and this is me giving my opinion, I am not, I repeat NOT giving up two promising young arms and getting one arm who is not an ace back in return. He would probably be the Reds ace, but he's not a true #1 starter. We thought we had pitching depth this year. Maybe we do, maybe we don't. So far it hasn't worked out. Point being, I wouldn't give up 2 pitchers for 1 guy who's a #2 at best. The Dodgers have to give me something other than Jamey Carroll or give me at least a pitching prospect in return who's projectable as a contributor of some sort at the major league level. It can be a bottom of the rotation or middle of the rotation type of arm, but something.

Carroll would serve absolutely no purpose on this team. You're going to have Miguel Cairo, Edgar Renteria, AND Jamey Carroll all on the same team??? I mean it almost offends me that he would be mentioned in a trade like that. That's such a waste of roster space on the Reds part that it's not even funny.
Carroll seems like a throw-in.

As for Billingsley, he's definitely a legit #2. The only thing keeping him from being a #1 is probably his control. Other than that he strikes out guys at a great rate, has a great fastball plus three good off-speed offerings. Not only that, but the off-speed offerings he has are the best ones you could ask for (slider, curve, change). That's everything you want in a major league starter. He would be a huge boost to the staff. Oh, did I also mention that he's great at getting ground balls? Perfect for GABP, Paul Janish, and Brandon Phillips.

Kemp and his .306/.382/.545 line don't really need any mentioning.

Meanwhile both Leake and Wood are probably 3-5 starters on a good team. Cozart is good (we might even be able to use him at the major league right now), but probably just another average player at the major league level. Hanigan is a quality contact hitter, but trading him would simply unblock Mes and Mes would probably be an upgrade offensively.

I think the Reds would win that trade but even still, I sympathize with some other posters in that I'd rather only get one of these Dodgers and keep Stubbs at center field if possible.

Redeye fly
06-03-2011, 10:31 AM
Carroll seems like a throw-in.

As for Billingsley, he's definitely a legit #2. The only thing keeping him from being a #1 is probably his control. Other than that he strikes out guys at a great rate, has a great fastball plus three good off-speed offerings. Not only that, but the off-speed offerings he has are the best ones you could ask for (slider, curve, change). That's everything you want in a major league starter. He would be a huge boost to the staff. Oh, did I also mention that he's great at getting ground balls? Perfect for GABP, Paul Janish, and Brandon Phillips.

Kemp and his .306/.382/.545 line don't really need any mentioning.

Meanwhile both Leake and Wood are probably 3-5 starters on a good team. Cozart is good (we might even be able to use him at the major league right now), but probably just another average player at the major league level. Hanigan is a quality contact hitter, but trading him would simply unblock Mes and Mes would probably be an upgrade offensively.

I think the Reds would win that trade but even still, I sympathize with some other posters in that I'd rather only get one of these Dodgers and keep Stubbs at center field if possible.

I too would like to keep Stubbs in CF for his defense if nothing else. But especially with all this organization has gone through over the years, I'm a pitching guy, and I hesitate to give up two arms who have proven they can pitch credibly up here and should do nothing but improve for one, even though he's more proven and does miss more bats. I don't necessarily expect Leake or Wood to reach Billingsley's level either. I do think they can be decent, useful major league pitchers for a long long time.

You make some good points and I can almost be persuaded, but I'm still a little gun shy. If you were to do that trade at this point, you would be trading 40% of your starting rotation. I know that wasn't going to be the case to start the year had Bailey and Cueto been healthy.

But this year has been alarming so far with the pitching. I'm not saying it will stay alarming, as I think the arms are certainly good enough to turn it around.

But so far Volquez has been a mess and I'm starting to think he's a bit of a head case- whether you describe him as an air head, stubborn, not as sharp up there as you'd like, I don't know. Great stuff, obviously. But the Rangers had their issues with him along those lines as well.

Arroyo may or may not be breaking down, it's hard to say. I think it's entirely possible being weakened by the mono made him susceptible to the back problems. In fact, that's what my gut instinct says. He's certainly never carried any excess weight and he doesn't have the type of velocity or delivery to necessarily be breaking down at this point. Still though, even the most hard working and in shape guys can only stay that durable for so long. I don't think we have to worry about him, but in a season where almost nothing has gone right with the starting pitching, I don't like to take my chances either.

Speaking of break downs, and I'm not trying to rush to conclusions or push the panic button on this, but Bailey was injured for a time last year and has had his second injury issue already this year. So is he fragile? I don't know. But again as I said, I don't like what's happened with the pitching.

Billingsley would no doubt stabilize the top of the starting rotation. I'm just concerned about what would happen with the middle to lower part, and those guys and games are important too.

Now if Bailey comes back and stays healthy, maybe it would work out. I don't know.

But I would still want a better "throw in" than Carroll. Especially when we're giving them two young starting pitchers with upside, who probably would benefit from pitching in the pitcher's parks at home and in 60% of the NL West, a younger CF who should still have a little upside, a good catcher who can throw and handle the game behind the plate and hit a little, and a SS who may at least be league average when he reaches the majors.