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View Full Version : Reds Need To Acquire Jose Reyes



Krusty
06-04-2011, 10:44 AM
It makes sense for the Reds. Even if it is a stopgap move for this year, the Reds need to pull the trigger. You put Reyes at the top of the lineup and he provides the sparkplug the Reds offense needs. If Stubbs wasn't striking out at an alarming pace, I would say there would be no need for the deal. But the Reds need to make the deal. What would it take to get Reyes, I don't have a clue. But if a Janish/Leake for Reyes deal would work for the Mets, then the Reds need to seriously consider parting with some youngsters if they expect to get back in the playoffs and go beyond the first round.

Opinions?

kaldaniels
06-04-2011, 10:47 AM
It makes sense for the Reds. Even if it is a stopgap move for this year, the Reds need to pull the trigger. You put Reyes at the top of the lineup and he provides the sparkplug the Reds offense needs. If Stubbs wasn't striking out at an alarming pace, I would say there would be no need for the deal. But the Reds need to make the deal. What would it take to get Reyes, I don't have a clue. But if a Janish/Leake for Reyes deal would work for the Mets, then the Reds need to seriously consider parting with some youngsters if they expect to get back in the playoffs and go beyond the first round.

Opinions?

1) Expect seriously strong support on this from Reds44

2) Reyes currently is tied for the league lead in WAR with Votto. That's impressive.

guttle11
06-04-2011, 10:54 AM
You'd probably have to give up a lot more than Janish and Leake. And unless he's willing to sign a reasonable extension (highly unlikely), the price is probably too steep. I'm not paying a ton for a rental unless it's a true ace. Reyes could show up and pop a hammy going for a triple in his first game. Not worth a rental.

bellhead
06-04-2011, 11:39 AM
No prospects....

We agree to take Beltran along with Reyes. Mets save 25 million this year that's what the trade will cost. We give them Gomes, Janish, and Lewis.

VR
06-04-2011, 11:46 AM
Attitude, cost and poor defense are my concerns.

nate
06-04-2011, 11:47 AM
No prospects....

We agree to take Beltran along with Reyes. Mets save 25 million this year that's what the trade will cost. We give them Gomes, Janish, and Lewis.

We'd have to turn the "Fair trades" option "off" first.

:cool:

Big Klu
06-04-2011, 11:50 AM
We'd have to turn the "Fair trades" option "off" first.

:cool:

Walt's done it before. Look at the Larry Walker trade when he was in St. Louis.

NJReds
06-04-2011, 12:06 PM
The Mets just got an infusion of cash ($200M) from an investor. They've stated that they will make Reyes an offer in an attempt to keep him. Not sure if it's just posturing, since Reyes' agent says that he expects a "Crawford" contract when he hits free agency. I expect the Mets to trade Beltran, and possibly Wright, before moving Reyes.

I think it would be great for the Reds to get him, but I wouldn't give up much for him if it was just a three month rental.

edabbs44
06-04-2011, 12:44 PM
Attitude, cost and poor defense are my concerns.

Agree. If the cost is overwhelmingly in Cincy's favor I would consider due to the circumstances we are enjoying right now. I just dislike the tude.

Blitz Dorsey
06-04-2011, 12:56 PM
The problem is the Mets are asking for the sun and the moon in exchange for him. Plus, he's having one of his best seasons, which increases his value even more. As much as I would LOVE to see Jose Reyes as the Reds' shortstop, I bet it doesn't happen. I don't see the Reds being willing to give up what the Mets are asking. From what I hear, it would take something like Mesoraco, Alonso and one of our good young pitchers like Wood or Leake. That would be a hell of a lot to give up.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-04-2011, 01:18 PM
I'd much rather try to trade for Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier.

I'd love to see the old but rarely seen "swap dugouts" trade for either one of those guys during this series.

mth123
06-04-2011, 01:26 PM
I'd love to have Reyes and he'd be a huge upgrade for a problem area, but the Reds have bigger needs than SS and if they were to fill them, they could get by with a strong defender who has an OPS of about .600. Given the amount of money the team likely has to work with and that he fills neither a spot in the rotation nor in the middle of the line-up, I don't think Reyes would be my first target.

I think the Reds would need the Mets to pay some of Reyes deal for the Reds to get him and they'd likely have to give up a lot of talent to make that happen for a rental. If they did, what would be left to deal for a Starter or a mid-order bat?

757690
06-04-2011, 02:08 PM
The Mets will keep Reyes. If they trade him, they need to trade everyone and start a long term rebuilding program. They aren't going to do that.

Just go after Beltran. He fills a much bigger need, and will be a lot cheaper prospect wise. If the Reds take on his whole salary, I doubt they have to give up anything more than a few C prospects. And with attendance up, they should be able to.

VR
06-04-2011, 02:16 PM
I'd much rather try to trade for Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier.

I'd love to see the old but rarely seen "swap dugouts" trade for either one of those guys during this series.

This.

corkedbat
06-04-2011, 02:43 PM
This.

Yes.

I'd pass on Reyes. The Mets are going to ask too much in return for a rental, I'd rather DFA Renteria, caller up Cozart and pursue a deal with the Dodgers.

Matt700wlw
06-04-2011, 02:54 PM
Jocketty told Fay that he has not talked to the Mets....

of course, we all know what that means :)

_Sir_Charles_
06-04-2011, 03:05 PM
Jocketty told Fay that he has not talked to the Mets....

of course, we all know what that means :)

Fay spelled Jocketty correctly?

Will M
06-04-2011, 03:10 PM
Jocketty told Fay that he has not talked to the Mets....

of course, we all know what that means :)

why would he talk to the Mets about Reyes? the team has shown no interest in upping the payroll during the 2010 stretch run nor during the 2010-2011 offseason. why would they suddenly be willing to add salary?

*BaseClogger*
06-04-2011, 04:25 PM
Fay spelled Jocketty correctly?

:laugh:

757690
06-04-2011, 05:15 PM
why would he talk to the Mets about Reyes? the team has shown no interest in upping the payroll during the 2010 stretch run nor during the 2010-2011 offseason. why would they suddenly be willing to add salary?

To be fair, they did make a run at Cliff Lee last deadline, the Reds payroll was raised by around $5M this year, they committed over $150M in new contracts in the offseason, and have said that they have the ability to add payroll at the deadline.

It's hard to complain about the Reds financial commitment to winning these days.

reds44
06-04-2011, 05:56 PM
1) Expect seriously strong support on this from Reds44

2) Reyes currently is tied for the league lead in WAR with Votto. That's impressive.

I am in full support of this thread.

reds44
06-04-2011, 05:58 PM
Attitude, cost and poor defense are my concerns.

For the love of God is anyone ever going to offer evidence to back this up?

fearofpopvol1
06-04-2011, 06:15 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=89056

Blitz Dorsey
06-04-2011, 06:42 PM
44, if you know how to salsa dance, you obviously have an attitude problem. C'mon man, don't act like that's not a fact.

And if you make ESPN commercials about said salsa-dancing skills, you have an attitude that's out of control.

[sarcasm off]

Reyes' attitude has nothing to do with this situation. The reason he won't be a Red is what I said earlier in this thread: The Mets are asking for far too much. If you want to give up Travis Wood, Devin Mesoraco and Yonder Alonso for Reyes ... that is pretty much what it would take. Well, maybe not Yonder since they already have a 1B of the future in Ike Davis, but it would take a huge package of the Reds' best prospects.

The Voice of IH
06-04-2011, 06:51 PM
The only thing I know...The Reds need to do something about short. I was a Janish supporter, but the guy is not hacking it. And neither is Renteria.

SirFelixCat
06-04-2011, 08:54 PM
The only thing I know...The Reds need to do something about short. I was a Janish supporter, but the guy is not hacking it. And neither is Renteria.

Same here.


Although Ethier or Kemp takes care of the SS issue too, meaning with either of them, they can afford an all-glove-no-bat SS.

Kc61
06-04-2011, 09:15 PM
The Mets will keep Reyes. If they trade him, they need to trade everyone and start a long term rebuilding program. They aren't going to do that.

Just go after Beltran. He fills a much bigger need, and will be a lot cheaper prospect wise. If the Reds take on his whole salary, I doubt they have to give up anything more than a few C prospects. And with attendance up, they should be able to.

I agree with this post, except I'm not sure Beltran will cost only C prospects.

But he's a more realistic target. And he likely could be re-signed relatively cheaply.

I agree that the Mets will make every effort to keep Reyes and will seek tons in return if they trade him. The team would take (another) huge PR hit if they trade him for minor leaguers.

CrackerJack
06-04-2011, 09:24 PM
I think it is becoming obvious this team as-is, is not good enough to win the division. They are very average at best.

You could start with 3B and SS, and finding a better mix of BP arms or trading for one.

Rolen is not helping this team, sans yesterday's rare RBI single. It's painful to watch him hit, he can barely get the ball out of the infield anymore. I'm not sure what Jocketty is waiting for.

Tony Cloninger
06-04-2011, 09:42 PM
I think it is becoming obvious this team as-is, is not good enough to win the division. They are very average at best.

You could start with 3B and SS, and finding a better mix of BP arms or trading for one.

Rolen is not helping this team, sans yesterday's rare RBI single. It's painful to watch him hit, he can barely get the ball out of the infield anymore. I'm not sure what Jocketty is waiting for.

I think the same thing they are not letting Gomes go (Besides bobblehead day?)

They still think they can contribute and it's a matter of just getting it going.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-04-2011, 10:13 PM
why would he talk to the Mets about Reyes? the team has shown no interest in upping the payroll during the 2010 stretch run nor during the 2010-2011 offseason. why would they suddenly be willing to add salary?

Because, as currently constructed, this club cannot win the NL Central in 2011. This much is becoming increasingly obvious by the day.

I, personally, would love to see an attempt made at Matt Kemp, though I think the time to have seriously done something on that front was the offseason. Today made it blatantly obvious what having Matt Kemp in LF over Johnny Gomes would mean for this team.

VR
06-04-2011, 10:40 PM
For the love of God is anyone ever going to offer evidence to back this up?

Google search will provide you opinion after opinion about his selfish attitude.


Certainly there are no statistics to solidify concrete evidence.....but perception of people who have seen him play since he broke into the league has never been glowing about his love for the team game.

HokieRed
06-04-2011, 11:04 PM
Reds need to acquire some relief pitching.

Tony Cloninger
06-04-2011, 11:35 PM
I miss the June 15th trading deadline. It would light a fire under most GM's to make a decision.

Ghosts of 1990
06-04-2011, 11:52 PM
The Reds need to do something. They're past floundering, they are sinking. Anyone who is "Laissez-faire, we are okay!" is delusional at this point.

757690
06-05-2011, 12:17 AM
The Reds need to do something. They're past floundering, they are sinking. Anyone who is "Laissez-faire, we are okay!" is delusional at this point.

Here is my delusional defense of being Laissez-faire.

They've had a strike of bad luck, like they had last season, only worse, In addition, the Cardinals and Brewers have had a streak of very good luck. But going forward, I would much rather be a Reds fan than a Cardinal or Brewer fan.

Just look back at the lost decade. It looks miserable now, but in most years, the Reds were contending at this point in the season. In 2006 they were in first place on August 20th. However, poor defense and a lousy bullpen caught up to them by the end of the season, and they collapsed, just like the Cardinals did last season. Just like it will catch up to the Brewers and Cardinals this season.

This may sound crazy, but I think that even if the Reds just hover around .500 until the trade deadline, they will win the division. The great thing about a 162 game season is that talent almost always wins out in the end, and the Reds are easily the most talented team in the division. The luck just needs to even out.

Spitball
06-05-2011, 12:39 AM
The Reds need to do something. They're past floundering, they are sinking. Anyone who is "Laissez-faire, we are okay!" is delusional at this point.

I agree but the Reds may need their pipeline of prospects more than teams with larger revenues. Outside of Alonso, I don't think they should gamble away their developing players. As I look at the Astros and the Rays, I prefer to take the conservative approach to dealing prospects.

reds44
06-05-2011, 12:43 AM
Google search will provide you opinion after opinion about his selfish attitude.


Certainly there are no statistics to solidify concrete evidence.....but perception of people who have seen him play since he broke into the league has never been glowing about his love for the team game.
Show me.

I googled Jose Reyes selfish and found some bleacher report articles, that's about it.

Kc61
06-05-2011, 12:51 AM
The title of this thread should be broadened. The issue is not Jose Reyes.

The issue is the Reds' refusal to address the team's needs by acquiring meaningful proven talent from the outside. It's that simple.

Reyes is only an example.

As I said all winter, as did others, the off-season was unsuccessful. The team stood pat. This is not a recipe for improvement, particularly when other clubs (the Brewers especially) were so active.

Building with youth is fine, as long as you recognize the windows for success. When you get to such a point, you have to finish off the club with some strong proven talent. That's how you win in pro sports today.

The Reds won over 90 games last year. They should have added one good starting hitter and one good starting pitcher this off-season.

Instead, we got role players Fred Lewis and Edgar Renteria. I don't think the team added a single pitcher on the major league roster.

Some of the Reds' youth has panned out. Some of it hasn't. The result is a .500 team.

This can be fixed going forward. It will require more aggressive moves.

kheidg-
06-05-2011, 01:21 AM
I agree. The Reds need Jose Reyes, not another SS.

At this point, give up Alonso + Cozart + fill in the blank for him. Pull the trigger. You don't get anywhere laying up.

You can keep status quo and a winning record for several years with a good farm system - but seriously, Alonso has nowhere to play with Votto on the team.

When you have a good team - go for the gusto!

11larkin11
06-05-2011, 02:14 AM
I agree. The Reds need Jose Reyes, not another SS.

At this point, give up Alonso + Cozart + fill in the blank for him. Pull the trigger. You don't get anywhere laying up.

You can keep status quo and a winning record for several years with a good farm system - but seriously, Alonso has nowhere to play with Votto on the team.

When you have a good team - go for the gusto!

Mets have Ike Davis.

CrackerJack
06-05-2011, 04:05 AM
Rolen has 4 hits in his last 60 AB's, if I'm counting right.

He batted cleanup today correct? Went 0 for 5 and failed to get a hit with a man on 3rd in the 9th?

I'm surprised he is still tolerated. He should be replaced by Frazier or Francisco immediately, and put on the DL or rested 3 days a week IMO.

mth123
06-05-2011, 07:46 AM
The title of this thread should be broadened. The issue is not Jose Reyes.

The issue is the Reds' refusal to address the team's needs by acquiring meaningful proven talent from the outside. It's that simple.

Reyes is only an example.

As I said all winter, as did others, the off-season was unsuccessful. The team stood pat. This is not a recipe for improvement, particularly when other clubs (the Brewers especially) were so active.

Building with youth is fine, as long as you recognize the windows for success. When you get to such a point, you have to finish off the club with some strong proven talent. That's how you win in pro sports today.

The Reds won over 90 games last year. They should have added one good starting hitter and one good starting pitcher this off-season.

Instead, we got role players Fred Lewis and Edgar Renteria. I don't think the team added a single pitcher on the major league roster.

Some of the Reds' youth has panned out. Some of it hasn't. The result is a .500 team.

This can be fixed going forward. It will require more aggressive moves.

Nice post. Amen.

Krusty
06-05-2011, 11:19 AM
If you're the Dodgers, why would you trade your best player in Kemp? Just don't see MLB allowing that to happen since they are running the club.

Still putting my money down on Reyes that the Reds will acquire for the stretch run. It is all a matter of who they give up. And judging by past deals involving rental players for the stretch run, very few top prospects are included in these transactions.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-05-2011, 11:46 AM
If you're the Dodgers, why would you trade your best player in Kemp? Just don't see MLB allowing that to happen since they are running the club.

Still putting my money down on Reyes that the Reds will acquire for the stretch run. It is all a matter of who they give up. And judging by past deals involving rental players for the stretch run, very few top prospects are included in these transactions.

It'll be 8,000 times more difficult for the Reds (or anyone) to make a run at Matt Kemp now, and that game yesterday didn't help one bit either.

The time to have seriously worked on a trade for Kemp was over the offseason. Walt, instead, focused on Edgar Renteria and Fred Lewis.

Benihana
06-05-2011, 12:20 PM
The title of this thread should be broadened. The issue is not Jose Reyes.

The issue is the Reds' refusal to address the team's needs by acquiring meaningful proven talent from the outside. It's that simple.

Reyes is only an example.

As I said all winter, as did others, the off-season was unsuccessful. The team stood pat. This is not a recipe for improvement, particularly when other clubs (the Brewers especially) were so active.

Building with youth is fine, as long as you recognize the windows for success. When you get to such a point, you have to finish off the club with some strong proven talent. That's how you win in pro sports today.

The Reds won over 90 games last year. They should have added one good starting hitter and one good starting pitcher this off-season.

Instead, we got role players Fred Lewis and Edgar Renteria. I don't think the team added a single pitcher on the major league roster.

Some of the Reds' youth has panned out. Some of it hasn't. The result is a .500 team.

This can be fixed going forward. It will require more aggressive moves.

:clap: very well said

757690
06-05-2011, 01:09 PM
It'll be 8,000 times more difficult for the Reds (or anyone) to make a run at Matt Kemp now, and that game yesterday didn't help one bit either.

The time to have seriously worked on a trade for Kemp was over the offseason. Walt, instead, focused on Edgar Renteria and Fred Lewis.

No Dodger was available this off-season because of the team's financial situation.

757690
06-05-2011, 01:16 PM
The title of this thread should be broadened. The issue is not Jose Reyes.

The issue is the Reds' refusal to address the team's needs by acquiring meaningful proven talent from the outside. It's that simple.

Reyes is only an example.

As I said all winter, as did others, the off-season was unsuccessful. The team stood pat. This is not a recipe for improvement, particularly when other clubs (the Brewers especially) were so active.

Building with youth is fine, as long as you recognize the windows for success. When you get to such a point, you have to finish off the club with some strong proven talent. That's how you win in pro sports today.

The Reds won over 90 games last year. They should have added one good starting hitter and one good starting pitcher this off-season.

Instead, we got role players Fred Lewis and Edgar Renteria. I don't think the team added a single pitcher on the major league roster.

Some of the Reds' youth has panned out. Some of it hasn't. The result is a .500 team.

This can be fixed going forward. It will require more aggressive moves.

No one that would have helped the Reds so far this season was available in off-season.

Injuries have played a much bigger role in the Reds .500 status than individual production.

The offense has been great, the pitching, an emergency room. Get people healthy, and the team wins the division. If not everyone is healthy, then you trade to fill in the gaps.

Krusty
06-05-2011, 01:17 PM
The Reds do have payroll flexibility to make a move or two at the trading deadline. But it is obvious that the shortstop production and also at third is holding this team back. You're not getting rid of Rolen but it is easier to replace Janish.

Kc61
06-05-2011, 01:26 PM
No one that would have helped the Reds so far this season was available in off-season.

Injuries have played a much bigger role in the Reds .500 status than individual production.

The offense has been great, the pitching, an emergency room. Get people healthy, and the team wins the division. If not everyone is healthy, then you trade to fill in the gaps.

I won't debate it with you. But the Brewers got two good starters. The Cards got Berkman (he couldn't play LF for the Reds this year?) So many players were moved last off season. Nobody could have helped the Reds?

The offense has been good, not great, and it is basically a three or four man offense. Left field has been good? SS has been good offensively?

Volquez and Chapman were sent down because of poor performance. The DL was used in Chapman's case to save face. The pitching has failed because of injury AND poor performance.

No, I'll stick to my view on this one. Reds saw a good young team and stood pat. I would have tried for improvement from outside sources.

Edit: ok I did debate it with you.

pahster
06-05-2011, 01:32 PM
I won't debate it with you. But the Brewers got two good starters. The Cards got Berkman (he couldn't play LF for the Reds this year?) So many players were moved last off season. Nobody could have helped the Reds?

The offense has been good, not great, and it is basically a three or four man offense. Left field has been good? SS has been good offensively?

Volquez and Chapman were sent down because of poor performance. The DL was used in Chapman's case to save face. The pitching has failed because of injury AND poor performance.

No, I'll stick to my view on this one. Reds saw a good young team and stood pat. I would have tried for improvement from outside sources.

Edit: ok I did debate it with you.

If being second in the majors in runs scored isn't great, what is?

OldXOhio
06-05-2011, 01:40 PM
No, I'll stick to my view on this one. Reds saw a good young team and stood pat. I would have tried for improvement from outside sources.



I was fine with Walt's offseason and I'm still fine with it today. If this team is still hovering around .500 on Sept 1st, and no moves have been made, then perhaps WJ should be subject to some criticism.

Will M
06-05-2011, 02:21 PM
I see the following holes on the Reds:
1) LF
2) SS
3) 3B is becoming more of a problem
4) SP

Thats a lot of holes. Lets assume that the team is willing to add payroll. Then a trade for a shortstop (say Reyes) and a starter would be in order. Who gets traded? debatable. Alonso for sure in this scenario. Cozart. Maybe Hamilton if the return is big enough.
IMO Frazier needs to be in Cincinnati playing 3B & LF. Some of the holes the team has are going to have to be filled from within. I personally like Frazier better than Francisco for 3B.

Now, lets assume that the team is NOT willing to add payroll. If the team is not going to add payroll then they are not going to be serious contenders in 2011, 2012 or 2013. There is just not enough talent on the team & cheap players like Fred Lewis aren't going to push us over the top. So what to do? I suspect the team will plug holes with duct tape and try to convince the fans that they can contend. IMO, a radically different strategy is in order.What they could do if they don't want to add payroll is trade Votto for a massive return & Phillips for a good return. What comes back? 3 AA/AAA/young pitchers with TOR potential, a young second baseman to replace Phillips and more. Votto's trade value is huge. Just huge. And Phillips also has very good trade value as he has an option for 2012. The team looks to 2013 & beyond with a core of Mes, Alonso, 2B, Cozart, Frazier, Sappelt, Stubbs, Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Wood, Leake, & the 3 new arms. I know that I am in the minority here (i believe a minority of one) but i feel that this is the best scenario for the team if the owner won't up the payroll into the ~$100M range.

Kc61
06-05-2011, 02:29 PM
If being second in the majors in runs scored isn't great, what is?

Reds are ninth in MLB in team OPS.

Reds play in a band box.

Reds offense is good, but it's not great by any means.

I think they are one big hitter away from being a great offense.

757690
06-05-2011, 02:46 PM
I won't debate it with you. But the Brewers got two good starters. The Cards got Berkman (he couldn't play LF for the Reds this year?) So many players were moved last off season. Nobody could have helped the Reds?

The offense has been good, not great, and it is basically a three or four man offense. Left field has been good? SS has been good offensively?

Volquez and Chapman were sent down because of poor performance. The DL was used in Chapman's case to save face. The pitching has failed because of injury AND poor performance.

No, I'll stick to my view on this one. Reds saw a good young team and stood pat. I would have tried for improvement from outside sources.

Edit: ok I did debate it with you.

Berkman was signed for $8M and looked atrocious last season. That was the Cardinals betting heavy on, and getting a hard eight.

Marcum would have cost the Reds Meseraco, and Greinke makes $25M over the next two seasons and would have cost a ton of players.

A lot of players did move last off season, and nearly all of them were too expensive for the Reds to even consider. The others weren't much of an upgrade over what the Reds have.

Plus, if the Reds makes a move at the deadline, it would have the same effect, if not more (due to it being exactly who the Reds need at the time) as a trade in the off-season.

757690
06-05-2011, 02:55 PM
Reds are ninth in MLB in team OPS.

Reds play in a band box.

Reds offense is good, but it's not great by any means.

I think they are one big hitter away from being a great offense.

The Reds are second in the NL in OPS+ which adjusts for ballpark effects.

AmarilloRed
06-05-2011, 02:57 PM
.What they could do if they don't want to add payroll is trade Votto for a massive return & Phillips for a good return. What comes back? 3 AA/AAA/young pitchers with TOR potential, a young second baseman to replace Phillips and more. Votto's trade value is huge. Just huge. And Phillips also has very good trade value as he has an option for 2012.

Phillips' 2012 club option becomes mutual if he is traded. Teams might be reluctant to assume that risk.

Spitball
06-05-2011, 02:59 PM
I'd rather they look into Adams and Qualls from the Padres or any other sound arms to add depth and quality to the pitching.

757690
06-05-2011, 03:01 PM
I see the following holes on the Reds:
1) LF
2) SS
3) 3B is becoming more of a problem
4) SP

Thats a lot of holes. Lets assume that the team is willing to add payroll. Then a trade for a shortstop (say Reyes) and a starter would be in order. Who gets traded? debatable. Alonso for sure in this scenario. Cozart. Maybe Hamilton if the return is big enough.
IMO Frazier needs to be in Cincinnati playing 3B & LF. Some of the holes the team has are going to have to be filled from within. I personally like Frazier better than Francisco for 3B.

Now, lets assume that the team is NOT willing to add payroll. If the team is not going to add payroll then they are not going to be serious contenders in 2011, 2012 or 2013. There is just not enough talent on the team & cheap players like Fred Lewis aren't going to push us over the top. So what to do? I suspect the team will plug holes with duct tape and try to convince the fans that they can contend. IMO, a radically different strategy is in order.What they could do if they don't want to add payroll is trade Votto for a massive return & Phillips for a good return. What comes back? 3 AA/AAA/young pitchers with TOR potential, a young second baseman to replace Phillips and more. Votto's trade value is huge. Just huge. And Phillips also has very good trade value as he has an option for 2012. The team looks to 2013 & beyond with a core of Mes, Alonso, 2B, Cozart, Frazier, Sappelt, Stubbs, Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Wood, Leake, & the 3 new arms. I know that I am in the minority here (i believe a minority of one) but i feel that this is the best scenario for the team if the owner won't up the payroll into the ~$100M range.

The Reds don't contend without Votto.

757690
06-05-2011, 03:02 PM
Phillips' 2012 club option becomes mutual if he is traded. Teams might be reluctant to assume that risk.

I did not know that. Good to know. Thanks.

HokieRed
06-05-2011, 03:25 PM
I like KC's larger reframing of the issue. I think we're about 60 days from some more radical moves from within, which could, IMHO, be made earlier without much loss. Mesoraco to C, Alonso to LF, Cozart to SS. I would hope to see one of the catchers traded, perhaps both, though I don't think they'll go immediately to relying as much as this on Mes. Primary need remains starting pitching. For a start I'd love to make the deal ESPN suggested of Hanigan for Tampa Bay's Alex Cobb. In any case, I hope to see the following lineup post July 15: 1. Stubbs 2. Phillips 3. Votto 4. Bruce 5. Alonso or Heisey, though probably with Mes when Alonso is playing 6. Alonso, Heisey, or Mes 7. Rolen 8. Cozart

mth123
06-05-2011, 05:25 PM
No one that would have helped the Reds so far this season was available in off-season.

Injuries have played a much bigger role in the Reds .500 status than individual production.

The offense has been great, the pitching, an emergency room. Get people healthy, and the team wins the division. If not everyone is healthy, then you trade to fill in the gaps.

Shaun Marcum? Zach Greinke? Ted Lilly? Kevin Correia? Lance Berkman? Josh Willingham? JJ Hardy? Matt Garza?

That is just off the top of my head.

OldXOhio
06-05-2011, 06:14 PM
Shaun Marcum? Zach Greinke? Ted Lilly? Kevin Correia? Lance Berkman? Josh Willingham? JJ Hardy? Matt Garza?

That is just off the top of my head.

If not Berkman, I had hoped for a run at Willingham. Still could happen if OAK falls out of the race. I believe he only has a one year deal.

757690
06-05-2011, 06:16 PM
Shaun Marcum? Zach Greinke? Ted Lilly? Kevin Correia? Lance Berkman? Josh Willingham? JJ Hardy? Matt Garza?

That is just off the top of my head.

Outside if Greinke and Marcum, none of those guys are upgrades over what the Reds have and/or are very expensive. And now everyone wanted the Reds to sign Berkman. He was a huge and very expensive Lottery ticket.

Marcum cost the Brewers a prospect better then the Reds have. Maybe Mesaraco and someone else would have beaten the Brewers offer. Maybe.

And Greinke makes $25M over the next two seasons, and would have cost three top prospects. He's the only one that may have been worth it.

Krusty
06-05-2011, 06:17 PM
Offer Alonso and a pitching prospect and see if the Mets will bite for Reyes.

cinreds21
06-05-2011, 06:21 PM
Offer Alonso and a pitching prospect and see if the Mets will bite for Reyes.

They really don't "need" Alonso as they have Ike Davis. I doubt any team likes him in left either.

OldXOhio
06-05-2011, 06:24 PM
Outside if Greinke and Marcum, none of those guys are upgrades over what the Reds have and/or are very expensive.

A career .838 OPS guy in LF is not an upgrade over what we're presently trotting out there.

Kc61
06-05-2011, 06:29 PM
Offer Alonso and a pitching prospect and see if the Mets will bite for Reyes.

You are aware that Reyes would be a rental. Why rent a player if you have a third rate pitching staff and won't be contending?

Right now the Reds have a second division pitching staff. They won't be contending with this pitching.

Trading a boat load of talent for Reyes makes no sense until the pitching is straightened out.

Reyes as a signed player for a number of years, that makes sense. Reds won't cough up that kind of money though.

Forget the whole idea.

mth123
06-05-2011, 07:39 PM
Outside if Greinke and Marcum, none of those guys are upgrades over what the Reds have and/or are very expensive. And now everyone wanted the Reds to sign Berkman. He was a huge and very expensive Lottery ticket.

Marcum cost the Brewers a prospect better then the Reds have. Maybe Mesaraco and someone else would have beaten the Brewers offer. Maybe.

And Greinke makes $25M over the next two seasons, and would have cost three top prospects. He's the only one that may have been worth it.

I beg to differ. The Reds have no one capable of hitting 5th. Josh Willingham is putting up nearly an .800 OPS in a horrible hitting evironment. He'd be the Reds third best hitter and likely near .850 in GABP and the NL Central.

Marcum cost a guy who doesn't have a position. The Jays don't have a 1B long term. Not sure the Reds could have gotten Marcum for Alonso straight up, but the Reds could have made a deal that didn't cripple them. Same with some other guys.

I don't get the idea of hoarding the upper level prospects. Mesoraco and maybe Cozart are the only prospects who look to be better at their positions than guys the Reds already have in the big leagues. I'm sure they could have gotten what they needed by offering some combination of Alonso, Frazier, Valaika, Francisco, Sappelt, Maloney, Lecure, Heisey et al coupled with some of the younger kids and some fringe pen guys. Heck, to solidify the rotation, I'd have gladly included Leake. If it takes three or four guys to get what you need, so be it. The Reds won't have use for this next wave unless some major pieces go down and if those pieces go down, they can't win anyway.

I do think that money is and was an issue, but a guy like Willingham doesn't cost much more than the Reds are pissing away on the likes of Renteria, Lewis, Cairo and Gomes. I agree that Berkman would not have been on my radar.

757690
06-05-2011, 08:25 PM
I beg to differ. The Reds have no one capable of hitting 5th. Josh Willingham is putting up nearly an .800 OPS in a horrible hitting evironment. He'd be the Reds third best hitter and likely near .850 in GABP and the NL Central.

Marcum cost a guy who doesn't have a position. The Jays don't have a 1B long term. Not sure the Reds could have gotten Marcum for Alonso straight up, but the Reds could have made a deal that didn't cripple them. Same with some other guys.

I don't get the idea of hoarding the upper level prospects. Mesoraco and maybe Cozart are the only prospects who look to be better at their positions than guys the Reds already have in the big leagues. I'm sure they could have gotten what they needed by offering some combination of Alonso, Frazier, Valaika, Francisco, Sappelt, Maloney, Lecure, Heisey et al coupled with some of the younger kids and some fringe pen guys. Heck, to solidify the rotation, I'd have gladly included Leake. If it takes three or four guys to get what you need, so be it. The Reds won't have use for this next wave unless some major pieces go down and if those pieces go down, they can't win anyway.

I do think that money is and was an issue, but a guy like Willingham doesn't cost much more than the Reds are pissing away on the likes of Renteria, Lewis, Cairo and Gomes. I agree that Berkman would not have been on my radar.


Some good points, however...

Brett Lawrie was a top 50 prospect and as high as 28 in nearly every Top 100 list. Alonso didn't even make the top 100 in every list. To say he doesn't have a position is silly. He can hit like a left fielder, but they are trying him at 2B and 3B. It's not like Alonso who really is a DH, but can pass for a 1B or maybe a LF. Lawrie currently has a 1.092 OPS, granted it's in Vegas, but the kid can hit. If given a choice between Alonso and Lawrie, every team would choose Lawrie.

Willingham is an improvement over Gomes, but he's no great catch. He's a poor defender that can come close to league average LF offensive numbers. He makes $6M this year and cost two good prospects from the A's. So, to get a 1-2 win improvement in LF, it would cost the Reds and additional $4.5M and something like Boxberger and Frazier. The money means no Hernandez and Cairo, who have so far been very valuable. It wouldn't have been a bad deal, but it really isn't one that I wish the Reds had made.

I agree with you about not hording prospects, but I want to use them to get real difference makers, like a true #1 starter or a real 4-5 win LF. I don't want to use them to go from McDonalds to Penn Station, but to go to Montgomery Inn. That just wasn't available this off-season.

HokieRed
06-05-2011, 08:36 PM
IMHO, still too much focus on the offense. Bring Cozart, Mesoraco, and Alonso (possibly also Frazier) if you think the problem is our need to score 9 instead of 7 runs a game, but the problem is the pitching, primarily in the rotation but also in the bullpen. A place to start?--I like the deal ESPN suggested for us. Hanigan to the Rays for Alex Cobb.

mth123
06-05-2011, 09:05 PM
Some good points, however...

Brett Lawrie was a top 50 prospect and as high as 28 in nearly every Top 100 list. Alonso didn't even make the top 100 in every list. To say he doesn't have a position is silly. He can hit like a left fielder, but they are trying him at 2B and 3B. It's not like Alonso who really is a DH, but can pass for a 1B or maybe a LF. Lawrie currently has a 1.092 OPS, granted it's in Vegas, but the kid can hit. If given a choice between Alonso and Lawrie, every team would choose Lawrie.

Willingham is an improvement over Gomes, but he's no great catch. He's a poor defender that can come close to league average LF offensive numbers. He makes $6M this year and cost two good prospects from the A's. So, to get a 1-2 win improvement in LF, it would cost the Reds and additional $4.5M and something like Boxberger and Frazier. The money means no Hernandez and Cairo, who have so far been very valuable. It wouldn't have been a bad deal, but it really isn't one that I wish the Reds had made.

I agree with you about not hording prospects, but I want to use them to get real difference makers, like a true #1 starter or a real 4-5 win LF. I don't want to use them to go from McDonalds to Penn Station, but to go to Montgomery Inn. That just wasn't available this off-season.

I think the team aspect of baseball gets lost in some of today's zeal to quantify individual contributions. A real honest to goodness number 5 hitter (which Willingham is) would make the entire line-up come together. I know they've scored a lot of runs, but how many times do we need to see Rolen and his under .700 OPS, Gomes and his stretches of contributing nothing or worse in the 5 hole. Recently we've seen Cairo, Renteria and today it was Fred Lewis.

As for the starting rotation, a solid dependable pitcher who can go 6 or 7 consistently and doesn't need to be protected because of his youth or injury issues would go a long way. The Reds have used their bullpen more than any other team in the big leagues. Is it any surprise that we're seeing meltdowns now that a couple of months have gone by? IMO, the Reds need to fill key roles to move up. Would another MVP caliber bat or a TOR starter be ideal? Sure it would, but doing nothing is costing this team every day. A solid starter who isn't a question mark and somebody who can slug .450 while getting on base 35% of the time would be a huge addition behind Bruce.

The Red's problems aren't surprises. Rolen has been hurt and without power since 2006. Bailey missed 3 months with shoulder issues in 2010. Wood had 100 major league innings. Leake only a little more and finished up 2010 as a batting tee. Volquez is about a year ahead of the typical timeline for effectiveness coming back from TJ (and contrary to popular opinion, not everybody comes back and those that do don't always come back as good as new or better). Janish never hit in the minors. Chapman was replacing an All Star and had all of 13 Innings in the major leagues. The team made a risky choice to stand pat. Yes, money was an issue. Its the very reason that they needed to get upgrades rather than waiting for the big score that they really couldn't afford.

So now as our World Series contender sits at .500 after 60 games and sinks farther behind yet again, I'm supposed to be happy that they locked up the back-up catcher for 3 years, signed the MVP to a deal that didn't add any years of control or save much in salary over what going year to year would have done, locked up a pitcher for 4 years when history suggests his type won't be around or at least as effective for that long and added years to an aging guy so they could save enough in 2011 to sign Edgar Renteria and Fred Lewis while bringing back Miguel Cairo and Jonny Gomes. These guys are not performing, but must somehow be better than these prospects that are too valuable to deal since the team thought it needed to get savings from Arroyo just to sign them. Outside of locking up Bruce, the offseason did little for the current window or to extend it. I gave it a "D" then and nothing I've seen has changed my mind.

757690
06-05-2011, 09:55 PM
The Red's problems aren't surprises.

Actually, that is the biggest problem, their biggest problems have been suprises.

Going into to season, the biggest need for more offense and a true Ace. More pitching depth was a concern only because it always was a concern. It ranked pretty low on the necessity for the team.

The pitching problem so far this year has not been production for the most part. Guys who have pitched have pitched close to expectations save Volquez. The guys who were supposed to start have pitched 28 quality starts out of 48. Without Volquez, it's 26 out of 39. The others who have filled in for the injured pitchers only have one.

The problem has been injuries. There is no way that anyone could have predicted the injuries that the Reds have had to their rotation. They lost two dependable starters, then all of their back up starters save Leake. Those backup starters were also supposed to be part of the bullpen, so this has resulted in needing to call up the likes of Tom Cochran, Chad Reineke, Jeremy Horst and Carlos Fisher.

Wood, Leake, Cueto, Bailey and Arroyo have been better than expected to be honest. The bullpen has been as good or better than expected too. The main problem is one starting pitcher and injuries. That could not be predicted.

mth123
06-05-2011, 10:05 PM
Actually, that is the biggest problem, their biggest problems have been suprises.

Going into to season, the biggest need for more offense and a true Ace. More pitching depth was a concern only because it always was a concern. It ranked pretty low on the necessity for the team.

The pitching problem so far this year has not been production for the most part. Guys who have pitched have pitched close to expectations save Volquez. The guys who were supposed to start have pitched 28 quality starts out of 48. Without Volquez, it's 26 out of 39. The others who have filled in for the injured pitchers only have one.

The problem has been injuries. There is no way that anyone could have predicted the injuries that the Reds have had to their rotation. They lost two dependable starters, then all of their back up starters save Leake. Those backup starters were also supposed to be part of the bullpen, so this has resulted in needing to call up the likes of Tom Cochran, Chad Reineke, Jeremy Horst and Carlos Fisher.

Wood, Leake, Cueto, Bailey and Arroyo have been better than expected to be honest. The bullpen has been as good or better than expected too. The main problem is one starting pitcher and injuries. That could not be predicted.

If Bailey going on the DL has taken anybody by surprise then somebody has their head in the sand. If Wood is performing "as expected" then that is all the more reason that they needed an arm. If the loss of Maloney and Lecure is really the shock to this team's staff that you make it sound, then they needed to go get 4 starters not just one. Arroyo hasn't missed a start. The only thing that I might classify as a surprise is Cueto's injury and even it happened fairly early in Spring, so if the things that the team knew at the end of 2010 wasn't motivation to get something done, then that should have been.

Counting on so many question marks in the first place was the problem. The fact that they all didn't come up roses is not a surprise.

757690
06-05-2011, 10:14 PM
If Bailey going on the DL has taken anybody by surprise then somebody has their head in the sand. If Wood is performing "as expected" then that is all the more reason that they needed an arm. If the loss of Maloney and Lecure is really the shock to this team's staff that you make it sound, then they needed to go get 4 starters not just one. Arroyo hasn't missed a start. The only thing that I might classify as a surprise is Cueto's injury and even it happened fairly early in Spring, so if the things that the team knew at the end of 2010 wasn't motivation to get something done, then that should have been.

The surprise was having Bailey, Cueto, LeCure, Maloney and Willis all get injured at the virtually the same time. That would be the #3,4,7,8 and 9 starters on the depth chart injured at almost the same time. Combine that with the #1 having to go to the minors at the same time, and you are now using your 10th best starting pitcher. How many teams expect to use their #10 starter on the depth chart in May? There is no way anyone could have expected this implosion mostly due to injuries.

In contrast, the Cardinals had to use their #7 best starter recently, and he got hammered. Imagine if they had to go three pitchers deeper.

And I would argue that if just two of those guys don't get injured, the Reds would be in first place.

mth123
06-05-2011, 10:28 PM
The surprise was having Bailey, Cueto, LeCure, Maloney and Willis all get injured at the virtually the same time. That would be the #3,4,7,8 and 9 starters on the depth chart injured at almost the same time. Combine that with the #1 having to go to the minors at the same time, and you are now using your 10th best starting pitcher. How many teams expect to use their #10 starter on the depth chart in May? There is no way anyone could have expected this implosion mostly due to injuries.

In contrast, the Cardinals had to use their #7 best starter recently, and he got hammered. Imagine if they had to go three pitchers deeper.

And I would argue that if just two of those guys don't get injured, the Reds would be in first place.

So if Cueto stays healthy all year and say Maloney stays healthy, then you think this rotation is in good shape? You need a reality check. Like I said, they had two spots filled with Arroyo and Cueto and 8 question marks. There is absolutely no reason for a contender to hope that 3 rotation spots will be filled by injured (Bailey and Volquez), unproven (Leake and Wood), long past it (Willis) or disaster plan (Maloney and Lecure) arms. The other guy wasn't even a question mark. The Reds knew that Chapman wasn't even an option for the 2011 rotation, so he's not even in the equation. Even hoping to come up with two spots from all those questions is pushing it IMO, but given the Reds finances it probably was the best they could do. The Reds went into the season hoping to get three spots from basically 4 question marks (honestly, if Maloney, Lecure or Willis was part of the plan it would have been a disaster already realized). The Reds needed to get at least 1 starting pitcher, preferably an ace, and it was obvious IMO.

757690
06-05-2011, 10:43 PM
So if Cueto stays healthy all year and say Maloney stays healthy, then you think this rotation is in good shape? You need a reality check. Like I said, they had two spots filled with Arroyo and Cueto and 8 question marks. There is absolutely no reason for a contender to hope that 3 rotation spots will be filled by injured (Bailey and Volquez), unproven (Leake and Wood), long past it (Willis) or disaster plan (Maloney and Lecure) arms. The other guy wasn't even a question mark. The Reds knew that Chapman wasn't even an option for the 2011 rotation, so he's not even in the equation. Even hoping to come up with two spots from all those questions is pushing it IMO, but given the Reds finances it probably was the best they could do. The Reds went into the season hoping to get three spots from basically 4 question marks (honestly, if Maloney, Lecure or Willis was part of the plan it would have been a disaster already realized). The Reds needed to get at least 1 starting pitcher, preferably an ace, and it was obvious IMO.

I meant if they weren't injured so far. What killed the Reds was that one horrid week when Bailey went down for a second time, Maloney, LeCure and Willis got injured, and Volquez was sent down. If just one of those guy is healthy, they weather the storm. They were in first place, five games above .500 at the time.

And for the record, pretty much every contending team outside the Phillies and Giants had as many question marks in their rotation as the Reds. In fact, the Reds were in better shape than the Yankees and Red Sox at the beginning of the year.

Slyder
06-05-2011, 11:34 PM
Plus, if the Reds makes a move at the deadline, it would have the same effect, if not more (due to it being exactly who the Reds need at the time) as a trade in the off-season.

What good does making a move in July going to do when youre 15 games back? :lol::lol::lol: The time to make a move was this offseason and show the fans "Hey we won the Central and we're not done yet". Everyone keeps talking about the depth in the farm system USE IT. You can only have 25 players in the majors most of the season what good is having 40 guys in the minors that "could make it in the pros"? This team NEEDSto get better pitching and Volquez, Reinke, and those types are not going to get it done. We missed an opportunity to truely better ourselves during the offseason and we're paying for it now.

The old saying rings true still... "you cannot win a division title in April, but you sure can lose one."

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-06-2011, 02:05 AM
What good does making a move in July going to do when youre 15 games back? :lol::lol::lol: The time to make a move was this offseason and show the fans "Hey we won the Central and we're not done yet". Everyone keeps talking about the depth in the farm system USE IT. You can only have 25 players in the majors most of the season what good is having 40 guys in the minors that "could make it in the pros"? This team NEEDSto get better pitching and Volquez, Reinke, and those types are not going to get it done. We missed an opportunity to truely better ourselves during the offseason and we're paying for it now.

The old saying rings true still... "you cannot win a division title in April, but you sure can lose one."

And to hopefully sell more season tickets and single-game tickets before Opening Day ever came around. This was the offseason to really capitalize on all the goodwill from last year and the problems with the NFL (is there even going to be a season?) ... the Reds stood pat.

reds44
06-06-2011, 02:06 AM
So if Cueto stays healthy all year and say Maloney stays healthy, then you think this rotation is in good shape? You need a reality check. Like I said, they had two spots filled with Arroyo and Cueto and 8 question marks. There is absolutely no reason for a contender to hope that 3 rotation spots will be filled by injured (Bailey and Volquez), unproven (Leake and Wood), long past it (Willis) or disaster plan (Maloney and Lecure) arms. The other guy wasn't even a question mark. The Reds knew that Chapman wasn't even an option for the 2011 rotation, so he's not even in the equation. Even hoping to come up with two spots from all those questions is pushing it IMO, but given the Reds finances it probably was the best they could do. The Reds went into the season hoping to get three spots from basically 4 question marks (honestly, if Maloney, Lecure or Willis was part of the plan it would have been a disaster already realized). The Reds needed to get at least 1 starting pitcher, preferably an ace, and it was obvious IMO.
Except for the fact the Reds made the playoffs with the exact same starting rotation last year.

There was no reason heading into the year to believe Travis Wood would become awful and Volquez would be anything except around the same thing he was last year (if not better). That's four rotation spots, with Bailey and Leake (two damn good options for 5th starters) battling it out.

Willis wasn't brought in to be a starter, he was brought in as a reliever.

The hindsight on the board right now is laughable. Jocketty didn't get a LF or a SS, if you get on him for something that is it. Nobody saw this coming with the rotation.

And saying the Reds knew Chapman wasn't an option for the rotation this year is just wrong. The Reds put him in the pen because we had a surplus of starting pitching, and everyone in the organization as well as this board knew it as well.

Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Leake/Bailey

was the starting pitching depth chart heading into spring. Then Cueto and Bailey got hurt, which put LeCure in the rotation who pitched well.

As others have said, the Reds were weathering the storm of starting pitching badness for awhile. What killed them is when Bailey, LeCure, and Willis (that's THREE starting pitchers) got hurt and Volquez was sent to the minors. Have anybody lose 4 starters and see where you are at.

If I told you before the year Volquez, Arroyo, Wood, and Leake would all have ERAs above 5 at this point in the year, Cueto and Bailey would miss the first month and then Bailey would get hurt again, you would have told me that I'm nuts. There's nobody who could have seen this coming.

Sometimes, stuff happens.

reds44
06-06-2011, 02:25 AM
And saying the Reds should have acquired an ace is awesome in theory. I think we should make a run at Pujols to play 3B in the offseason too.

Slyder
06-06-2011, 02:53 AM
The hindsight on the board right now is laughable. Jocketty didn't get a LF or a SS, if you get on him for something that is it. Nobody saw this coming with the rotation.


I think I've been fairly consistant on my stance....

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2289470&postcount=195
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2289645&postcount=216

reds44
06-06-2011, 02:57 AM
So how exactly do you suggest the Reds go about getting this ace you speak of? Monopoly money?

It has to be developed from within.

And both the White Sox and the Cardinals won the World Series without a hammer at the front of the rotation.

Slyder
06-06-2011, 03:26 AM
So how exactly do you suggest the Reds go about getting this ace you speak of? Monopoly money?

It has to be developed from within.

And both the White Sox and the Cardinals won the World Series without a hammer at the front of the rotation.

Ummm how is Chris Carpenter going to explain this one to his son? Finished 3rd in Cy Young Voting, 3.09 ERA, a year after winning the Cy Young award... Yes he's not a hammer... as much as I despise the crybaby.

Buehrle wasnt bad that year (3.12 ERA). Chicago also had the premier pen in baseball and the luck that the Astros ran out of magic with Willy Taveras.

And during the offseason there were two pitchers traded that would look rather nice in the rotation to at least give us fans some hope of not having to use the 10 aaa filler guys we have thus far. Matt Garza (although I wasn't as high on him) and Zach Grienke both of whom are now in our division. And I will admit Grienke's basketball skills set him back but Garza has been really good for the sCrubs before getting beaned by a line drive.

Will M
06-06-2011, 05:41 AM
to me it seemed that the Cards 'stars and scrubs' approach worked for them for several years. one key was that they seemed to always have a couple of TOR arms. for years I thought that the Reds should try a similar strategy.
you need six players:
2 TOR arms
3 star position players
1 closer (preferably one who is not paid a lot).
Then you fill in the rest of the 25 man roster with cheap youngsters & cheap vets. why cheap? because the team is a small market team. the Yankees can fill in their roster with $10M/year players but the smaller market teams have to save money somewhere.

the Reds have Votto (MVP), Bruce & Phillips. they have a closer. but they have zero TOR starters. we had hoped (at least some of us) that 1-2 guys would step it up. yet right now the team has ONE starter who is healthy and better than a BOR arm. ONE. so the 'lets get Reyes' talk seems odd to me. I'd love to get Reyes but only if the team had gotten two of Haren, Oswalt, Greinke, Marcum, etc. A Jose Reyes rental isn't going to help when 4/5 starters are giving up 5+ runs a game.

I personally think now is a poor time to be trading off the AAA guys. I think it will soon be time to plan for 2012. If the team doesn't want a massive rebuild they can still get some value for guys who won't be here next year (ie Coco and Ramon). Get guys like Mes, Frazier, Cozart & Alonso (in LF) up here.
part of this plan will need to be to find some better arms for 2012. either at the deadline via trade or in the offseason via trade/free agency.

mth123
06-06-2011, 07:54 AM
Except for the fact the Reds made the playoffs with the exact same starting rotation last year.

There was no reason heading into the year to believe Travis Wood would become awful and Volquez would be anything except around the same thing he was last year (if not better). That's four rotation spots, with Bailey and Leake (two damn good options for 5th starters) battling it out.

Willis wasn't brought in to be a starter, he was brought in as a reliever.

The hindsight on the board right now is laughable. Jocketty didn't get a LF or a SS, if you get on him for something that is it. Nobody saw this coming with the rotation.

And saying the Reds knew Chapman wasn't an option for the rotation this year is just wrong. The Reds put him in the pen because we had a surplus of starting pitching, and everyone in the organization as well as this board knew it as well.

Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Leake/Bailey

was the starting pitching depth chart heading into spring. Then Cueto and Bailey got hurt, which put LeCure in the rotation who pitched well.

As others have said, the Reds were weathering the storm of starting pitching badness for awhile. What killed them is when Bailey, LeCure, and Willis (that's THREE starting pitchers) got hurt and Volquez was sent to the minors. Have anybody lose 4 starters and see where you are at.

If I told you before the year Volquez, Arroyo, Wood, and Leake would all have ERAs above 5 at this point in the year, Cueto and Bailey would miss the first month and then Bailey would get hurt again, you would have told me that I'm nuts. There's nobody who could have seen this coming.

Sometimes, stuff happens.

But this time there was ample reason to suspect it was coming.

Pitchers usually are 25 to 30 months past TJ before they are good again. Volquez will be better in 2012 if he comes back (because not everyone does). He got back on the mound quickly and fooled people. That was promisong and somebody the team should put in the mix for an open spot to see if the quick comeback continues. He's not a guy who should have been written in ink as the opening day starter.

Wood had 100 innings of major league pitching on his resume. There are tons of guys who do well for half a season and then fade. IMO a guy needs 400 to 500 innings of being an effective starter under his belt before he's established. Wood was promising and definitely a guy who was still a suspect. Penciling him into one of the openings was an OK idea. Counting on him as "the answer" was risky. I still suspect he'll be better. But he's no sure thing.

Leake was the same as Wood but worse. He's already shown for a couple of months that he wasn't the pitcher everyone thought he was in May of 2010. Another guy with a limited resume who should have been viewed as a question.

Bailey spent nearly three months on the DL in 2010. It wasn't from a fluke injury that sidelined him. It was a shoulder problem that resulted from pitching. Shoulders tend to be very serious injuries and even when they seem "minor" there are many times when an undetected underlying problem causes the weakness to recur after some innings accumulate. So far its happen twice. Bailey pitched for a while in Sping and was sodelined with soreness. He came back and pitched for a while again and now he's sidelined again with soreness. I'm not optimistic at all that he'll last long when he's back again.

A couple of these types competing for a spot with solid pitchers in the other spots is OK. Expecting to get 3 spots from these 4 was pushing it. Its not hindsight.

Here is a post from Jan 9




Maybe if they had four established guys in the other spots, but the Reds have a guy coming off of TJ without much success so far, a guy who missed three months with shoulder issues, a guy with 100 major league innings and two kids who aren't ready for the workload. Contenders usually have guys with that profile competing for the 5th spot as well. The Reds need to get three starters from that group and they really need at least one to assert himself as a TOR arm.

This group has a lot of upside and more promise of any group of young home grown starters since Gary Nolan, Don Gullett, Wayne Simpson and Milt Wilcox were coming along, but I think there is a general sense of denial on here concerning the ton of uncertainty involved. I'm sure some of these guys will pass with flying colors, but some will disappoint and not work out as well.

Here is one from December 22



IF the Reds come up with three guys who perform well enough to make Arroyo a number 4 starter (its possible) then the Reds rotation will stack-up, but that's a lot of stuff that would have to go right and some guys stepping up and doing what they've never done to make that happen. The Cards and Royals guys simply need to continue performing at the levels that they've already established. IMO, that is the difference. If Bailey, Wood and Cueto all come through and turn Arroyo into the number 4, then the Reds staff may be able to stack-up, I'm not optimistic that Volquez or Leake will be anyone we want out there

Here is another from the same day




Pre-injury Volquez did it for a half season, which in and of itself makes him a little iffy in comparison the top three in Milwaukee or at least the top two in St. Louis. Post Injury Volquez hasn't done anything. He's a huge question mark at best.

Leake became a batting tee after 75 innings in 2010. IMO this is either due to:

1, The league stopped letting him get away with a hittable strike 1 pitch or
2. He wore out and fell apart

If its number 1, then the success from April and May was kind of a mirage that won't be repeated and gives us no clue as to what to expect for 2011. If its number 2, he needs a year in AAA building those IP numbers to the point where he can become a viable starter over a major legue season. Generally, I think Leake is probably going to become the replacement for Bronson Arroyo and will be a quality major league starter. I just don't think 2011 is the year that it happens.

I agree that Bailey has never done it and its my whole point about why the Reds rotation just shouldn't be considered with either the Brewers (who have a healthy, recent Cy Young winner at the top) or the Cardinals (who have former Cy Young winner as well as another guy who finished high in the voting the last two years). I agree that the Reds are most able to find a competent guy if some one goes down and have more options to allow them to limit the damage that one of their starters might do if he isn't up to snuff by replacing him in the rotation, but they simply don't match up with the top 3 on either staff and the most accomplished guy in the rotation is more comparable to the number 4 in either Milwaukee or St. Louis.


There are more.

757690
06-06-2011, 08:37 AM
^^^^
No offense, mth123, but you were wrong about most of that.

Wood and Leake have been productive. Yes they have had bad games and that is why they have high ERA's, but I think everyone here now understands that ERA is a bad stat for determining the production that a pitcher gives you.

If you look at it two different ways, either quality starts or xFIP, both have pitched quite well.

Combined they are 14-7 in terms of quality starts.

Leake has a 3.64 xFIP, and Wood a 4.19 xFIP.

The problem the Reds have had so far has not been Mike Leake or Travis Wood. It has been injuries. Clearly the main problem has been Volquez, but they have also had to give too many starts to LeCure (who did okay, but put a lot of stress on the pen) Matt Maloney and Chad Reineke, and as a result, too many innings to Fisher, Horst and just about everyone else in the pen.

And when healthy, both Cueto and Bailey have turned into that Ace that you and everyone else had desired, so again, it was injury, not production that has hurt the Reds.

Most of question marks you talked about, ended up being fine. Wood and Leake, have been solid mid rotation guys, while Cuetoband Bailey when healthy have been TOR arms. The problem, again, was that both Cueto and Bailey were injured, and then all the backup starters got injured at the same time.

Volquez was the only question mark that has performed poorly, and I am sure everyone expected at least one of the starters to disappoint. But so far, it has only been one.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 09:20 AM
Except for the fact the Reds made the playoffs with the exact same starting rotation last year.

There was no reason heading into the year to believe Travis Wood would become awful and Volquez would be anything except around the same thing he was last year (if not better). That's four rotation spots, with Bailey and Leake (two damn good options for 5th starters) battling it out.

Willis wasn't brought in to be a starter, he was brought in as a reliever.

The hindsight on the board right now is laughable. Jocketty didn't get a LF or a SS, if you get on him for something that is it. Nobody saw this coming with the rotation.

And saying the Reds knew Chapman wasn't an option for the rotation this year is just wrong. The Reds put him in the pen because we had a surplus of starting pitching, and everyone in the organization as well as this board knew it as well.

Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Leake/Bailey

was the starting pitching depth chart heading into spring. Then Cueto and Bailey got hurt, which put LeCure in the rotation who pitched well.

As others have said, the Reds were weathering the storm of starting pitching badness for awhile. What killed them is when Bailey, LeCure, and Willis (that's THREE starting pitchers) got hurt and Volquez was sent to the minors. Have anybody lose 4 starters and see where you are at.

If I told you before the year Volquez, Arroyo, Wood, and Leake would all have ERAs above 5 at this point in the year, Cueto and Bailey would miss the first month and then Bailey would get hurt again, you would have told me that I'm nuts. There's nobody who could have seen this coming.

Sometimes, stuff happens.

Yes. The interesting thing is that Johnny TOR would have replaced Leake/Wood in the rotation as they likely would have been dealt in the trade. So everyone who wanted to dump the farm for Greinke, for example, would have had this rotation:

Greinke
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto
Bailey

Not a hell of a lot better. Especially when Zack likes to shoot hoops as much as he does.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-06-2011, 11:34 AM
Yes. The interesting thing is that Johnny TOR would have replaced Leake/Wood in the rotation as they likely would have been dealt in the trade. So everyone who wanted to dump the farm for Greinke, for example, would have had this rotation:

Greinke
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto
Bailey

Not a hell of a lot better. Especially when Zack likes to shoot hoops as much as he does.

Replace Volquez with just about anyone and, well, where do I sign?

REDREAD
06-06-2011, 11:57 AM
The time to have seriously worked on a trade for Kemp was over the offseason. Walt, instead, focused on Edgar Renteria and Fred Lewis.


I doubt Kemp was ever available. Unless the Dodgers have a fire sale, why would they trade Kemp (even in the offseason)? He's basically their Jay Bruce. They were going to be willing to ride things out with him.

REDREAD
06-06-2011, 12:18 PM
Counting on so many question marks in the first place was the problem. The fact that they all didn't come up roses is not a surprise.

You make solid points. The problem is that all contenders are forced to take some risks. That means, they must count on Wood and Homer to have good years to contend. I think even if we had the big market payroll, we'd count on those guys.. Going into the season, we had a long list of contenders for the rotation, and they brought in Willis as insurance. Sure, maybe you could've traded one of those young pitchers for Marcum or Grienke.. but then when Marcum/Grienke gets hurt, Walt gets crucified.. Basically, there's very few "sure things".. So, in summary, I do not fault Walt for standing pat on the rotation (other than bringing in Willis.. actually sending Willis to AAA to start was a great decision, and if Willis stayed healthy, it would've paid dividends). Arrondo is paying dividends in the bullpen, even though that
move was made two years ago. I didn't see anyone predicting a meltdown for
Chapman (who will be back before end of the year).

Anyhow, if we did trade for Grienke, most likely Arroyo would have to go (in addition to the prospects Grienke would've cost).
Cordero was unmovable last year, and I just don't see any other way they
could've fit Grienke in the payroll. Grienke has a 5.29 ERA thus far. Grinke was dominating in 2009. However, Grienke's 2010 season was solid, but not "Ace" level.

Now, we could make the point that instead of signing Lewis, Cario, Renturia, and Gomes (about 6 million, I think?) we could've tightened up the belt and
traded for Willingham. I guess we could've called up a minor leaguer to back up SS (although Cairo has been valuable, but maybe they find a way to get Willingham and Cario).. That's a solid point.. but given how crappy the rotation has been, I don't think Willingham saves the season thus far.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 12:30 PM
Replace Volquez with just about anyone and, well, where do I sign?

The problem is that many wanted Volquez in the rotation at the start of the year so we would have to live with him for now.

Kc61
06-06-2011, 12:43 PM
^^^^
No offense, mth123, but you were wrong about most of that.

Wood and Leake have been productive. Yes they have had bad games and that is why they have high ERA's, but I think everyone here now understands that ERA is a bad stat for determining the production that a pitcher gives you.

If you look at it two different ways, either quality starts or xFIP, both have pitched quite well.

Combined they are 14-7 in terms of quality starts.

Leake has a 3.64 xFIP, and Wood a 4.19 xFIP.

The problem the Reds have had so far has not been Mike Leake or Travis Wood. It has been injuries. Clearly the main problem has been Volquez, but they have also had to give too many starts to LeCure (who did okay, but put a lot of stress on the pen) Matt Maloney and Chad Reineke, and as a result, too many innings to Fisher, Horst and just about everyone else in the pen.

And when healthy, both Cueto and Bailey have turned into that Ace that you and everyone else had desired, so again, it was injury, not production that has hurt the Reds.

Most of question marks you talked about, ended up being fine. Wood and Leake, have been solid mid rotation guys, while Cuetoband Bailey when healthy have been TOR arms. The problem, again, was that both Cueto and Bailey were injured, and then all the backup starters got injured at the same time.

Volquez was the only question mark that has performed poorly, and I am sure everyone expected at least one of the starters to disappoint. But so far, it has only been one.

Travis Wood's ERA is now 5.72, he is second in the league in earned runs allowed, he has allowed ten homers (tied for 7th in the NL), his FIP is 4.35.

You don't think he's part of the problem? He's a fifth starter at best right now.

_Sir_Charles_
06-06-2011, 12:50 PM
Travis Wood's ERA is now 5.72, he is second in the league in earned runs allowed, he has allowed ten homers (tied for 7th in the NL), his FIP is 4.35.

You don't think he's part of the problem?

I'd say he's PART of the problem, but not a big part. He's had 4 games that really killed his numbers. His other 9 starts have been totally acceptable for a back of the rotation arm IMO. But that's kind of the problem with the pitchers this year. They have a few games where they just flat out BLOW UP and it kills their overall numbers. Same with the relievers. Those 4 games from Wood, they account for all 4 of his losses. The rest of his starts...the Reds are 6-3. He's not been good, don't get me wrong, but he's not been as bad as his numbers indicate.

Surprisingly, he's yet to have an UN-earned run this year.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 12:53 PM
Travis Wood's ERA is now 5.72, he is second in the league in earned runs allowed, he has allowed ten homers (tied for 7th in the NL), his FIP is 4.35.

You don't think he's part of the problem? He's a fifth starter at best right now.

Wood has been erratic. He's had 13 starts: four debacles, one meh, 8 QSs.

In May, he was 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA in 6 starts, 5 QSs.

Those debacles are ruining his overall numbers.

RedsManRick
06-06-2011, 01:36 PM
Surprisingly, he's yet to have an UN-earned run this year.

Anybody who saw Fred Lewis' "break" on that one flyball to LF yesterday that ended up dropping in can attest to the fact that while none of his runs have been scored as unearned, at least a few of them have been.

Wood has not been good, no doubt. But he's certainly not been vetting much help.

The big problem this year is the same as it's been for most of the staff: too many homers (and it is not just GABP).

_Sir_Charles_
06-06-2011, 01:38 PM
Anybody who saw Fred Lewis' "break" on that one flyball to LF yesterday that ended up dropping in can attest to the fact that while none of his runs have been scored as unearned, at least a few of them have been.

Wood has not been good, no doubt. But he's certainly not been vetting much help.

The big problem this year is the same as it's been for most of the staff: too many homers (and it is not just GABP).

That and walks. The walks are killers IMO.

kaldaniels
06-06-2011, 01:57 PM
Anybody who saw Fred Lewis' "break" on that one flyball to LF yesterday that ended up dropping in can attest to the fact that while none of his runs have been scored as unearned, at least a few of them have been.

Wood has not been good, no doubt. But he's certainly not been vetting much help.

The big problem this year is the same as it's been for most of the staff: too many homers (and it is not just GABP).

Yeah, I'm someone who thinks plays like that all even out in the end. But when I saw Lewis heading toward the track (if I wasn't a Reds fan I would describe it as comical) on that shallowish flyball, my heart went out to Wood.

bucksfan2
06-06-2011, 04:55 PM
Anybody who saw Fred Lewis' "break" on that one flyball to LF yesterday that ended up dropping in can attest to the fact that while none of his runs have been scored as unearned, at least a few of them have been.

Wood has not been good, no doubt. But he's certainly not been vetting much help.

The big problem this year is the same as it's been for most of the staff: too many homers (and it is not just GABP).

That fly ball hurt. It almost appeared as Wood began to settle down a little bit. Then Either hits a pop up that Lewis horribly misplays, Dusty decides to walk Kemp, and the rest is history. With that pop up caught that inning more than likely ends scoreless.

It seemed to me that all the pitching moves Dusty made backfired yesterday. He got IBB happy and those came back to haunt him. Wood didn't help himself in that he was wild and gave up a homer and a bases loaded walk to the pitcher. It was a game yesterday that the Reds had numerous chances and just couldn't get over the hump.

757690
06-06-2011, 06:37 PM
No need to acquire Reyes. The solution to the Reds SS problems just appeared today...

http://twitter.com/#!/Dodgers/status/77825398699855872


The #Dodgers... designated... Juan Castro for assignment.

Patrick Bateman
06-06-2011, 07:29 PM
No need to acquire Reyes. The solution to the Reds SS problems just appeared today...

http://twitter.com/#!/Dodgers/status/77825398699855872

That's a silly post.

He was DFA'd.

That means there is still going to be a 10 day bidding war over who gets the rights to Castro.

It's likely at this point the Reds would still have to offer a few premium prospects to obtain his services.

Brutus
06-06-2011, 07:39 PM
That's a silly post.

He was DFA'd.

That means there is still going to be a 10 day bidding war over who gets the rights to Castro.

It's likely at this point the Reds would still have to offer a few premium prospects to obtain his services.

I know this is funny timing, but for real... I'm almost certain he was joking. His post was drooping of sarcasm.

Redsfan320
06-06-2011, 07:51 PM
I know this is funny timing, but for real... I'm almost certain he was joking. His post was drooping of sarcasm.

Brutus, I'm almost certain Patrick was joking as well. Unless you are too.... :confused::lol:

320

Patrick Bateman
06-06-2011, 08:01 PM
I know this is funny timing, but for real... I'm almost certain he was joking. His post was drooping of sarcasm.

Perhaps that proves that you can't tell the difference between "factual" and "satire"?

Brutus
06-06-2011, 08:20 PM
Perhaps that proves that you can't tell the difference between "factual" and "satire"?

Or that you can't...

Patrick Bateman
06-06-2011, 09:36 PM
That makes no sense based on the contents of the last few posts.

Brutus
06-06-2011, 09:37 PM
That makes no sense based on the contents of the last few posts.

Sure it does. 320 recognized the possibility I wasn't being serious.