PDA

View Full Version : 2011 Season Slipping Away....



Edskin
06-05-2011, 09:06 PM
For the first time this year I am genuinely concerned that this team won't be in contention late this summer.

I predicted 87-92 wins and a return to the post season. I didn't think we'd win more games than we did last year, but I was fairly confident we could repeat our success.

My fears were....

1. The really young guys that played well last year would get exposed (Wood, Leake, Chapman).

2. The really old guys (Rolen, Renteria, etc) would run out of gas.

3. The magic/chemistry from last year would fade.

I thought we were looking at a 78-82 win season if those things happened-- and through 60 games my fears are being realized.

My personal arbitrary barometer for whether or not you are in contention is this-- would one reasonable hot streak get you in the thick of things. At this point with 100 games left and 5.5 game lead to overcome, the answer is still yes.

If we rattled off 8 of 10 or 12 of 16 or something like that we'd be in fine shape. But we are right at the edge. Another lousy two week stretch or a terrible road trip and this season might be toast.

My confidence is almost totally gone, but I'm not hopeless yet because I still think that maybe this rotation is due to come around, but we truly are running out of time. It is entirely possible that we will be totally out of the race by this time next month. If the 2011 Reds are going to be a factor in 2011, it must start now.

klw
06-05-2011, 09:23 PM
If the Reds do fade much further, do they become deadline sellers? If so who is available? Coco is the obvious as well as the catchers. Otherwise Renteria, Cairo may be the only others. Perhaps Phillips would be the biggest draw if they can't ink him to a LTC.

kbrake
06-05-2011, 09:26 PM
I'm right there with you Edskin as far as where my confidence is right now. The injuries are just piling up and the depth was good if it was temporary but right now we are counting on guys like Horst and Fisher for way too much. It would be nice to add a piece like Reyes but if the pitching doesn't get turned around I don't know that there is a point.

This team desperately needs Volquez to come back and be much better, same with Aroldis Chapman. Homer Bailey has to get healthy and stay healthy and so does LeCure in the pen. I'd look at trading Hanigan and prospects for pitching or for Reyes if the pitching comes around in the next two weeks.

When Bailey comes back I'd send Wood down over Leake. Not a fan of either right now but Wood was just brutal today. Last season in April Dusty had a closed door meeting and let this team have it. This year they just seem like they expect it to all just turn around at some point. They seem lifeless at times though I guess that is what happens when you and everyone else knows you have to score 6 runs a night to win.

oneupper
06-05-2011, 09:56 PM
Brewers and Cardinals.
They are better than last year and probably better overall than the Reds.

Last year the REDS offense was much better than either of those two.
The pitching was on par with the Cards' (Brewers were atrocious).

This year, the Stl offense is superior and that's without Pujols producing yet.
The REDS are better than the Brewers, but not by that much.
In pitching the REDS are the worst of the three and its not close. (Brewers might be the best this time).

In addition, Brewers and Cards are finding ways to win. Reds...not.
We all saw this weekend. Milwaukee gave up a five run lead late today also...but they managed to win.

It doesn't seem to be our year.

MikeThierry
06-05-2011, 10:35 PM
One, you mentioned the Cards and Brewers were finding ways to win. To me, that is one of the biggest differences between last years Reds and this years Reds. I was highly frustrated last year that every time the Cards seemed to go on a nice run, I would look up at the box score and see that the Reds were finding ways to win. That there were different players contributing to the Reds success almost on a nightly basis. I just don't see that same drive this year with the Reds. Am I off base?

reds44
06-05-2011, 10:50 PM
Still not concerned. Extremely frustrated though.

757690
06-05-2011, 10:57 PM
One, you mentioned the Cards and Brewers were finding ways to win. To me, that is one of the biggest differences between last years Reds and this years Reds. I was highly frustrated last year that every time the Cards seemed to go on a nice run, I would look up at the box score and see that the Reds were finding ways to win. That there were different players contributing to the Reds success almost on a nightly basis. I just don't see that same drive this year with the Reds. Am I off base?

I kinda agree. That does seem to be the difference between the Reds this year and last, the Reds last year were finding ways to win.

But I wouldn't attribute it to drive or desire. I think it has more to due with the Reds being beat up right now. They were finding ways to win until the injuries in the middle of a grueling road trip exploded on them.

They started the #10 starter on their depth chart the other day, and had to call up the #12 reliever on their depth chart, a guy whom was signed just to fill out their AAA pen.

Ghosts of 1990
06-05-2011, 11:02 PM
It would be nice if Homer Bailey could stay healthy for more than 2 weeks at a time and Edinson Volquez could be comparable in value to a Josh Hamilton. Then we'd only have the normal amount of problems to worry about. Those two giving us nothing combined with the stuff we knew would be a problem (Rolen, Gomes, shortstop, no real depth or bench) is really crippling us. I agree. The next two weeks (including west coast swing) show us if we're for real, not the last two weeks.

VR
06-05-2011, 11:32 PM
Feels like following the Reds circa 2005. Lousy starting pitching resulting in always playing catch up. Multiple chances to 'tie it up' in late innings after scratching a few runs out, but only convert 1 of every 4 times.....an average conversion rate in MLB.

Even the quality starts are coming after giving up a 3 spot in the 1st....which is exasperating for the offense every night.

Edskin
06-05-2011, 11:39 PM
And while we haven't pitched well at all lately, it hasn't mattered even when we have...

2-1 loss to Cleveland, 2-1 loss to Atlanta, and the 19 inning loss to the Phils. Team is not picking each other up like it did last year.

Things just aren't fluid or smooth--- everything seems like a struggle.

Kc61
06-05-2011, 11:48 PM
One high caliber starting pitcher (even a veteran number 2 starter) and a solid hitting LF would make a dramatic difference in this team IMO.

They have the depth to trade. The AAA lineup is filled with talent, somebody must want these guys. You can't leave them at AAA forever.

The Reds just seem unwilling to deal to fill holes. It's too bad, because the team does have talent.

I could even live with the SS situation if the other holes were addressed. At least they have a superb defender at SS. And Cozart at AAA seems like a solid talent.

But they need to add a starting hitter and a starting pitcher. It's so obvious. Maybe it's money. But the team sat still this off-season and seems content to sit still.

kaldaniels
06-05-2011, 11:48 PM
I kinda agree. That does seem to be the difference between the Reds this year and last, the Reds last year were finding ways to win.

But I wouldn't attribute it to drive or desire. I think it has more to due with the Reds being beat up right now. They were finding ways to win until the injuries in the middle of a grueling road trip exploded on them.

They started the #10 starter on their depth chart the other day, and had to call up the #12 reliever on their depth chart, a guy whom was signed just to fill out their AAA pen.

And the amazing thing is, come July 1st, everyone could be back and healthy. Just a whole lot of "non-severe" (gulp) injuries and problems going on now.

kbrake
06-05-2011, 11:52 PM
One high caliber starting pitcher (even a veteran number 2 starter) and a solid hitting LF would make a dramatic difference in this team IMO.

They have the depth to trade. The AAA lineup is filled with talent, somebody must want these guys. You can't leave them at AAA forever.

The Reds just seem unwilling to deal to fill holes. It's too bad, because the team does have talent.

I could even live with the SS situation if the other holes were addressed. At least they have a superb defender at SS. And Cozart at AAA seems like a solid talent.

But they need to add a starting hitter and a starting pitcher. It's so obvious. Maybe it's money. But the team sat still this off-season and seems content to sit still.

I think a very big part of it is money.

Kc61
06-05-2011, 11:56 PM
I think a very big part of it is money.

You are undoubtedly correct. It's a shame, though, because the needs have been very obvious. A couple of key signings/trades would have made a world of difference IMO.

I wonder, though, how the team plans to deal with all the AAA talent. Francisco is hitting .330. Alonso is over .320. Frazier has rebounded this year. Cozart is hitting well and seems to be a solid package at SS. Mesoraco is the best of the bunch.

The Reds have to do something with these guys. Promote them soon or trade them. They can't leave them at AAA forever.

MikeThierry
06-06-2011, 12:05 AM
And the amazing thing is, come July 1st, everyone could be back and healthy. Just a whole lot of "non-severe" (gulp) injuries and problems going on now.

Do you think it will be too late by then?

kaldaniels
06-06-2011, 12:09 AM
Do you think it will be too late by then?

If I was a betting man, I would say it is not too late. But in reality it is gonna depend on what the Cards and Brew do during June. I'm willing to watch this team slog through June so long as everyone is on the mend.

MikeThierry
06-06-2011, 12:59 AM
If I was a betting man, I would say it is not too late. But in reality it is gonna depend on what the Cards and Brew do during June. I'm willing to watch this team slog through June so long as everyone is on the mend.

Right now the Cards are ailing with tons of injuries so it looks like it could be prime to move on them. That said, if the Cards survive their injury issues (particularly Holliday being out) it will be very difficult to catch them. They will also be getting players back in July.

fearofpopvol1
06-06-2011, 01:27 AM
There is nothing worse than watching the Reds lose games they should win (yesterday was a perfect example).

I don't think the Reds are out of it by any means, but they can't continue losing 2 out of every 3 games either, especially at home. Maybe Baker needs to get ejected over a close call? The team definitely needs a spark and the starting pitching needs to be better.

Ron Madden
06-06-2011, 01:57 AM
Paul Daugherty agrees that it's the pitching.

He says the Reds can't fix the pitching but they can fix the offense by tweaking the starting lineup. http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110605/COL03/306050012/Doc-Walks-Reds-running-place?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Reds

757690
06-06-2011, 02:41 AM
Do you think it will be too late by then?

It probably will be too late by then. By the trading deadline, the Reds will be in first, 10 games ahead of the rest of the division, and won't need to make a big trade. ;)

MikeThierry
06-06-2011, 02:45 AM
It probably will be too late by then. By the trading deadline, the Reds will be in first, 10 games ahead of the rest of the division, and won't need to make a big trade. ;)

Can I have what you are smoking please? ;):)

757690
06-06-2011, 03:52 AM
If Ondresuk doesn't groove one for Kemp on Saturday, this thread never would have been started. The Reds would have won two straight series, one against their divisional rival, and looking to make it three in a row against the Cubs.

One pitch and people think the team will finish behind the Pirates and be out of contention by the trading deadline.

Crazy, simply crazy.

The Reds are by far the most talented team in the division, but, like every team in the history of baseball, just finished a rough patch of the season. Unfortunately, the Cards and Brewers had one of their easier patches at the same time. The Reds do have a bit of a tough schedule coming soon, a west coast trip, then the Jays, Rays and Yankees, but after that, they have a much easier schedule.

We all saw how bad the Cardinal and Brewers defense and bullpens are, and that always ends up crashing a team's playoff hopes. And both have been playing way above their heads lately. It looks like Berkman is regressing, bad Lohse is surfacing, and the Brewers starters are turning back to their mediocre selves. Add in that the Reds are the only team in the division with the depth needed to improve themselves, and it's hard to bet against them.

I was joking when I said that the Reds will be ten games up by the trading deadline, but I think the odds are much higher that that will happen than the Reds ever being out of it this season.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 08:16 AM
I'm still not overly concerned. Very little has gone right for this team so far and they are still .500. They should get in a groove and find their way.

Roy Tucker
06-06-2011, 08:27 AM
If its mid-July and this team is .500 or below, then I think they are toast. But not now.

I think the pitching staff needs to get healthy. But leading the league in BBs and HRs ain't no way to win. Throw strikes, boys. Walks have haunted.

They need a LF that gives Votto/Bruce some protection. Votto continues to get pitched around. Bruce is starting to get dodged too. And it needs to be a bopper. Gomes/Lewis/Heisey ain't that guy. Either bring up Alonso or make a trade.

I can live with Janish at SS even though he's hitting .215. And Rolen, while a consumate pro, I think may have crested the hill.

The Operator
06-06-2011, 08:27 AM
It's the pitching. Pretty much everything that could have gone wrong, has. Outside of Cueto, they've all been just terrible at times. Bailey has been pretty good but he just cannot stay on the field.

And sadly I'm expecting absolutely nothing on the trade front. In the trade rumors thread someone posted a quote from Jocketty something along the lines of "well, there's not much pitching available and it would be really hard to get". Sounds like GM speak for "status quo baby, we aren't gonna do squat" to me.

The real bummer of it all is that if they let this season slip away - those gains in attendance they were making based on last year will probably be for naught. A lot of people will probably see them as a one year wonder and stop coming out to the park.

traderumor
06-06-2011, 08:31 AM
If Ondresuk doesn't groove one for Kemp on Saturday, this thread never would have been started. The Reds would have won two straight series, one against their divisional rival, and looking to make it three in a row against the Cubs.

One pitch and people think the team will finish behind the Pirates and be out of contention by the trading deadline.

Crazy, simply crazy.

The Reds are by far the most talented team in the division, but, like every team in the history of baseball, just finished a rough patch of the season. Unfortunately, the Cards and Brewers had one of their easier patches at the same time. The Reds do have a bit of a tough schedule coming soon, a west coast trip, then the Jays, Rays and Yankees, but after that, they have a much easier schedule.

We all saw how bad the Cardinal and Brewers defense and bullpens are, and that always ends up crashing a team's playoff hopes. And both have been playing way above their heads lately. It looks like Berkman is regressing, bad Lohse is surfacing, and the Brewers starters are turning back to their mediocre selves. Add in that the Reds are the only team in the division with the depth needed to improve themselves, and it's hard to bet against them.

I was joking when I said that the Reds will be ten games up by the trading deadline, but I think the odds are much higher that that will happen than the Reds ever being out of it this season.Ok, is it fair to say those who are concerned are making much about one pitch? You do realize that a pattern is developing where struggling offensive teams take batting practice off our pitchers. The Dodgers, with Jamey Carroll and Aaron Miles at the top of the lineup, scored 18 runs in 11 innings off our pitchers.

I ask, is that all we get in this organization, one year of league average pitching, then back to "we need more offense" so we can win a game here or there? I was there yesterday, and each pitcher that ran out there was pitching like the Dodgers were an offensive force. Our pitching right now is just as bad as it was from 2001-2009. Make any excuses you want, Reds fans, but this organization is apparently still clueless in the domain of pitching.

HokieRed
06-06-2011, 08:32 AM
I suspect Jocketty's comment about the difficulty of finding pitching is just pretty much simple honesty. It's never easy to find and it's a whole lot more difficult to put together a doable deal with the right team at the right time than most RZers seem to think.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 08:33 AM
I suspect Jocketty's comment about the difficulty of finding pitching is just pretty much simple honesty. It's never easy to find and it's a whole lot more difficult to put together a doable deal with the right team at the right time than most RZers seem to think.

The TOR pitcher store doesn't typically open until later this month or early next month, and they have limited hours even then.

_Sir_Charles_
06-06-2011, 08:36 AM
Not concerned in the least. The pitching will come together. The hits will start to become timely. It's been almost a perfect storm this season in regards to things going wrong. We've got tons of time left. We've yet to go on any kind of winning streak yet. Those 5 games we started the season out on...longest winning streak of the season. Patience, things will begin bouncing our way as guys get healthy.

The Operator
06-06-2011, 08:38 AM
The TOR pitcher store doesn't typically open until later this month or early next month, and they have limited hours even then.It wouldn't even need to be a TOR guy. I'd settle for "not awful" guy.

kaldaniels
06-06-2011, 08:44 AM
I'm not gonna sugarcoat it...it was a bad weekend.

But.....talking about 1 pitch, how about 3 pitches. The one to Kemp and the 2 to Pujols. Things could have turned out a lot different this weekend.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 08:48 AM
It wouldn't even need to be a TOR guy. I'd settle for "not awful" guy.

They have plenty of guys who are not awful.

bucksfan2
06-06-2011, 08:58 AM
This is probably the most frustrating season so far since 2000. Frustration comes along with expectations which is where I am at. The pitching hasn't held up at all this season and all to many games remind me of yesterday's antics. Poor defense allowing extra batters and runs, all the IBB moves Dusty made backfired, Wood was ineffective, they just couldn't get the big hit at the right time.

This team will be all right if they can stay within striking distance. I think everyone looked at this stretch in the schedule and said it would be grueling and difficult. 20 straight games, the 10 day road trip, two off days in 35 games. They need a shot in the arm, Volquez coming back effective. Or Chapman coming back effective. Or Bailey coming back and pitching the way he had been. Or some help from the minors in Frazier or Alonso.

HokieRed
06-06-2011, 09:37 AM
The way I read it is pretty simple. This is a .500 team, which, if everything had gone really well, might have won 90 games (and still might). The team has several real excellences and a lot of liabilities. Despite all the angst about LF and SS (which should now extend to 3b), the most serious problem is easily the starting pitching. The offense can't be made potent enough to overcome the fact that we've had 45 starts out of guys with a collective ERA of way over 5. I know there are problems with ERA as a stat, but it has comparative value--just run the top 4 Reds starters, in number of starts, against those of any contending club out there. Getting a TOR guy is both hard and dicey--e.g. Greinke, even Cliff Lee (and remember the Texas deal for last year was for Cliff Lee as rental not as longer term asset). And what the Reds have to offer is not as valuable as RZers think, IMHO. When the lists start emerging of what we should trade--Alonso, Frazier, Mes etc.--there's not an established major league player on the list. I like all those guys as prospects but that's what--and all, at this point--they are. To get a pitcher who is really going to move this rotation up is going, I fear, to require a lot bigger name than any of the usual suspects we like to toss around. So I don't know that the organization had/has a lot of choice but to try to depend on development from within.

mbgrayson
06-06-2011, 09:40 AM
Also one interesting note: The Cardinals and the Brewers still have 15 games against each other, and 9 of those are in Milwaukee.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-06-2011, 10:16 AM
This is probably the most frustrating season so far since 2000. Frustration comes along with expectations which is where I am at. The pitching hasn't held up at all this season and all to many games remind me of yesterday's antics. Poor defense allowing extra batters and runs, all the IBB moves Dusty made backfired, Wood was ineffective, they just couldn't get the big hit at the right time.

This team will be all right if they can stay within striking distance. I think everyone looked at this stretch in the schedule and said it would be grueling and difficult. 20 straight games, the 10 day road trip, two off days in 35 games. They need a shot in the arm, Volquez coming back effective. Or Chapman coming back effective. Or Bailey coming back and pitching the way he had been. Or some help from the minors in Frazier or Alonso.

Or a long-overdue trade for a legitimate LF

Brutus
06-06-2011, 10:19 AM
Right now the Cards are ailing with tons of injuries so it looks like it could be prime to move on them. That said, if the Cards survive their injury issues (particularly Holliday being out) it will be very difficult to catch them. They will also be getting players back in July.

I think you're overstating this Cardinals' club. They're decent, but they're not all that.

Berkman has started coming down to earth (though Pujols is catching fire which will probably even out). Nonetheless, there are still some holds and the rotation on the whole isn't as good as it's been performing.

The Cardinals, even when healthy, will not run away with anything.

REDREAD
06-06-2011, 10:38 AM
It wouldn't even need to be a TOR guy. I'd settle for "not awful" guy.

That's completely true.
IMO, the keys to the rest of the season are:

Travis Wood, and whoever fills the #5 slot.

The Reds won last year based on solid rotation from 1-5.. They aren't geting it done this year. Cueto and Leake are cranking out the solid starts. Arroyo has been rough lately, but he will rebound.. But those 3 guys can't do it alone. Someone needs to get healthy.. I am really hoping either Bailey or Willis can get well soon and fill in the hole in the rotation.

Wood simply has to start giving the team more quality starts. I'm not asking for a year like last year... just for improvement.

OesterPoster
06-06-2011, 10:39 AM
Man, which Redszone poster kidnapped John Fay and wrote these thoughts:

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/


Here are some things they could do:

–Bring up Todd Frazier or Yonder Alonso to play left field. I would have given Chris Heisey a five- or six-game trial there by now, but that hasn’t happened for whatever reason. Frazier and Alonso are hitting at Triple-A. Adding a big bat deep in the lineup would help.

–Put Brandon Phillips back in leadoff and drop Drew Stubbs to sixth or seventh. When they did that last year, Stubbs’ numbers improved drastically.

–Make a trade. Devin Mesoraco’s killing it in Triple-A. He’s hitting .322/.410/.537 overall and .472/.558/.778 over his last 10 games. A lot of teams would likely be interested in Ramon Hernandez or Ryan Hanigan.

–Edgar Renteria was unavailable yesterday with a sore back. Disable him. Bring up Zack Cozart. Cozart is hitting .294 at Triple-A. He has 25 extra-base hits. That’s 17 more than the Reds have gotten from shortstop this year.

I(heart)Freel
06-06-2011, 11:03 AM
I think something happens today/tomorrow.

Of course, it will be internal shuffling, but it could be enough jolt of fresh blood to reinvigorate the club. I bet it's Renteria to the DL and Cozart up, but it could also involve a new left fielder from AAA.

But as has been mentioned, the pitching needs an upgrade. I find it not the least bit surprising that the club rebounded earlier this year when they started getting healthy and deep again. Every starter began pitching like it was their last start in the bigs if they screwed up. That little bit of pressure/motivation did wonders.

That part I'm not sure can come from internal shuffling, at least not for a while. But as Walt pointed out, no one is trading starting pitching this early in the season.

Sea Ray
06-06-2011, 11:10 AM
I'm not gonna sugarcoat it...it was a bad weekend.

But.....talking about 1 pitch, how about 3 pitches. The one to Kemp and the 2 to Pujols. Things could have turned out a lot different this weekend.

Seems like the Cardinals are winning the close ones and the Reds are not. Unless that changes it could be "one of those years". How many extra inning games have the Reds lost recently and how many have the Cards won? The blowouts will happen and I count yestreday as a blowout but it's the games like Sat that you have to pull out if you expect to be atop your division in Sept/Oct

Kc61
06-06-2011, 11:22 AM
The Reds hitting after sixty games is in the top tier of the NL. It is imbalanced hitting. Votto and Bruce (and Hernandez, actually) provide most of the good stats. But overall, the team is scoring runs.

The Reds fielding after 60 games is among the league's best. Its UZR rating is the best in the National League.

The pitching numbers are among the worst in the league in every respect. Travis Wood and Edison Volquez are having monumentally bad years so far. Arroyo and Leake are currently over 5 ERA guys. The bullpen is about average.

The solution is clear to me. On the offensive side, try some guys from AAA. The team is ok offensively, no need for major surgery. Just try some AAA guys to bolster it.

On the pitching side, the Reds need to seriously re-assess. I can live with Cueto, Arroyo, and Leake. Cueto is the best pitcher. Arroyo is savvy and will have his usual good streak. Leake throws grounders and is a decent candidate for fourth or fifth guy.

I would, however, seriously consider moving Volquez, Wood and perhaps Bailey when the time is right. This may not be for awhile given their numbers.

Volquez is a walks machine. He needs to pitch for a building team that can give him the time to (perhaps) develop. Wood is a fly ball pitcher at GABP. Like the Harang problem. I would try to move them when their numbers are a bit better.

As for Bailey, I'm undecided. He is injured too much. I'd keep him unless a very good offer comes. Then, if so, I'd move him.

The Reds are a victim of their pitching staff. It needs to change.

Kc61
06-06-2011, 11:27 AM
Seems like the Cardinals are winning the close ones and the Reds are not. Unless that changes it could be "one of those years". How many extra inning games have the Reds lost recently and how many have the Cards won? The blowouts will happen and I count yestreday as a blowout but it's the games like Sat that you have to pull out if you expect to be atop your division in Sept/Oct

The Reds' pitching numbers this year are horrible. They have the worst FIP in the league, by far.

I don't know how anyone can attribute this to bad luck or "one of those years."

Look at the pitching numbers. They are not mediocre. They are not just below average. They are terrible.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 11:46 AM
1. Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Orioles — A couple of National League teams are already evaluating him as a trade-deadline pickup. The issue: How much of a liability would he be in the field? Is he a player you could “hide’’ out there just to take advantage of his bat? Heck, the Cardinals put Lance Berkman in right and it hasn’t been so bad.


http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2011/06/05/if_you_want_passion_start_with_this_roster/?page=full

mdccclxix
06-06-2011, 11:50 AM
KC61, I agree with you on everything except the thing on Bailey. I think once he stabalizes he'll have a great stretch. That might not even be this year, but it's worth waiting to find out...unless he brings in a great pitcher in return.

On Volquez, I wish he weren't coming back up already. No one is sold on his command being improved based on his 2 starts. No one will want him back down in AAA to embarrass him if he fails again. Leave him down indefinitely until he is really sharp. It strikes me as panic to bring him up again so soon. Not that there isn't a reason to panic about our starters.

On Chapman, why not stretch him out to start the rest of the season. It's very clear we need an ace, don't have an ace, and he could be an ace. He needs reps, he needs consistency. If we need a LHRP at the end of the year, he can go back to the pen for the playoffs. However I think it's more likely we'll need a dominant starter in August to shore up the rotation. Time is ticking.

I(heart)Freel
06-06-2011, 11:54 AM
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2011/06/05/if_you_want_passion_start_with_this_roster/?page=full (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2011/06/05/if_you_want_passion_start_with_this_roster/?page=full)

Was more interested in the player below him:


2. Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets — Said an NL talent evaluator, “A contending team is going to get Beltran at the trading deadline, and they’re going to be very happy with him. He can still hit. He can be an emotional guy, but put him in a place where it counts, and he’ll produce for you.’’ Boston? He was on the wish list before the Sox signed Carl Crawford, and with J.D. Drew really struggling, this is not far-fetched. Beltran is hitting .287 with 9 homers and 33 RBIs; six of his homers were hit righthanded.

Kc61
06-06-2011, 12:12 PM
KC61, I agree with you on everything except the thing on Bailey. I think once he stabalizes he'll have a great stretch. That might not even be this year, but it's worth waiting to find out...unless he brings in a great pitcher in return.

On Volquez, I wish he weren't coming back up already. No one is sold on his command being improved based on his 2 starts. No one will want him back down in AAA to embarrass him if he fails again. Leave him down indefinitely until he is really sharp. It strikes me as panic to bring him up again so soon. Not that there isn't a reason to panic about our starters.

On Chapman, why not stretch him out to start the rest of the season. It's very clear we need an ace, don't have an ace, and he could be an ace. He needs reps, he needs consistency. If we need a LHRP at the end of the year, he can go back to the pen for the playoffs. However I think it's more likely we'll need a dominant starter in August to shore up the rotation. Time is ticking.


I just wonder if Chapman is well suited to start. I wonder if he's not better in the bullpen.

(Yes, the need is STRONGER in the rotation. That I get.)


The guy has problems with control, with mechanics, with consistency. I just have trouble seeing Chapman get through 7 innings without some kind of problem cropping up.

I can see him doing better in one or two inning stints. And as a reliever, if he's off, he can be more easily replaced.

If the Reds think he can start, so be it.

RedsManRick
06-06-2011, 12:25 PM
We're at .500 despite being crushed with injuries and ineffectiveness from the pitching staff. Luckily Jay Bruce and to a lesser extent Phillips (nearly a 1:1 k/bb ratio!) have really stepped up to keep the offense humming.

Are we surging? Obviously not. But we've scored more runs than we've allowed and we're one hot steak from being right there.

Anybody who thought we would run away with this thing really wasn't being objective. Any reasonable assessment said it was going to be a dogfight between us, the Cards and the Brewers. And it is.

I heard this on the broadcast the other day and I think it's a great line. "You're never as bad as you look when you're losing and you're never as good as you look when you're winning". Very rarely can you "feel" like a .500, or even .600 team. You just alternate between feeling good and bad.

Things feel pretty bad right now. But if you've played .500 ball when times are bad, that's a good thing in my book.

LvJ
06-06-2011, 12:56 PM
Oh, it's happening. This team is done.

If trades are made then there is hope. But knowing the Reds, this isn't going to happen.

IMO, the Brewers will win the division. I can see the Cardinals going out and spending money and making a big time trade or two. They will do it. I have confidence in that. I don't have confidence the Reds will. That sucks.

The pitching sucks. Horribly. Like, real bad. Real real bad.

I say we trade Rolen, Volquez, Edgar, Arroyo, Ramon Hernandez and Cordero if we can.

If they'll trade for a Guthrie and Beltran or Reyes. Then things could turn around. But something needs to happen with this rotation.

CrackerJack
06-06-2011, 01:13 PM
I just have a very hard time believing this team is capable of finishing 18 games over .500 to get to 90 wins and have a shot at winning the division at this point. I just don't see it.

They are going to have enough trouble keeping a few guys around, let alone spending $ on finding help from outside. So, I suppose we're waiting for them to plan for next year come Aug/Sept and hope for the best until then from the pitching and maybe a AAA guy or two can add some spark to the lineup by then or at that time. Just being a realist I suppose.

CrackerJack
06-06-2011, 01:17 PM
Oh, it's happening. This team is done.

If trades are made then there is hope. But knowing the Reds, this isn't going to happen.

IMO, the Brewers will win the division. I can see the Cardinals going out and spending money and making a big time trade or two. They will do it. I have confidence in that. I don't have confidence the Reds will. That sucks.

The pitching sucks. Horribly. Like, real bad. Real real bad.

I say we trade Rolen, Volquez, Edgar, Arroyo, Ramon Hernandez and Cordero if we can.

If they'll trade for a Guthrie and Beltran or Reyes. Then things could turn around. But something needs to happen with this rotation.

I have a hard time believing anyone will take on Rolen, and I'm not sure I want to lose Arroyo for next year...but the others are certainly deadline guys to move if they can, and use the $ to re-up and acquire in the off-season, and hope Walt/Bob see the light then and don't stand pat again, and over-value what they have.

I'd really like to see Volquez do "ok" for a while and become tradeable, I don't think he possesses the make-up to be a long term success at the top of any rotation, and maybe a desperate team will give up a nice chip for him.

Sea Ray
06-06-2011, 03:11 PM
The Reds' pitching numbers this year are horrible. They have the worst FIP in the league, by far.

I don't know how anyone can attribute this to bad luck or "one of those years."

Look at the pitching numbers. They are not mediocre. They are not just below average. They are terrible.

We know the pitching's been horrible but that wasn't really my point. Given our injuries you could say the bad FIP is due to bad luck, but my point is that we missed out on winning games like Sat vs the Dodgers and the 19 inn one in Philly because we didn't get the big hit or didn't make the big pitch while our opponent did. Regardless of the FIP we only needed one more play to be made in order to win, unlike yesterday

REDREAD
06-06-2011, 03:53 PM
Well, we've been sucking lately, that's true.

But we're only 5.5 games back. Plenty of season left to make that up.

Not time for a fire sale..
Hopefully within a week or so, either Willis or Homer is able to get healthy and start contributing.

Trading Cordero, Rolen, Phillilps, etc is not a good idea at all. It's taken Cast a long time to rebuild the credibility of the team. Dumping people for prospects in a panic mode is going to set this team way back. The Reds have sold more tickets this year. Even if they don't win the division, it's advanteous to win as many games as possible and try to rebuild the ticket sales base.

_Sir_Charles_
06-06-2011, 04:10 PM
Hopefully within a week or so, either Willis or Homer is able to get healthy and start contributing.

Willis was taken off the DL yesterday IIRC.

HeatherC1212
06-06-2011, 05:00 PM
Willis was taken off the DL yesterday IIRC.

Just saw on Twitter that he's starting tonight for Louisville.

kaldaniels
06-06-2011, 05:19 PM
If we are gonna talk about a depressing subject such as this, mind as well have a good tune playing.

YouTube - ‪Paul Simon Slip Slidin' Away - Live at Abbey Road‬‏ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKxyoud_c-E)

LvJ
06-06-2011, 05:34 PM
Vlad would kill it in the GABP, I would imagine.

paintmered
06-06-2011, 06:15 PM
I have a hard time believing anyone will take on Rolen, and I'm not sure I want to lose Arroyo for next year...but the others are certainly deadline guys to move if they can, and use the $ to re-up and acquire in the off-season, and hope Walt/Bob see the light then and don't stand pat again, and over-value what they have.

And besides, don't you have to assume that Arroyo will improve once he kicks mono?

VR
06-06-2011, 10:45 PM
Vlad would kill it in the GABP, I would imagine.

And make Gomes look like a young Ken Griffey jr in the outfield.

traderumor
06-07-2011, 07:52 AM
We're at .500 despite being crushed with injuries and ineffectiveness from the pitching staff. Luckily Jay Bruce and to a lesser extent Phillips (nearly a 1:1 k/bb ratio!) have really stepped up to keep the offense humming.

Are we surging? Obviously not. But we've scored more runs than we've allowed and we're one hot steak from being right there.

Anybody who thought we would run away with this thing really wasn't being objective. Any reasonable assessment said it was going to be a dogfight between us, the Cards and the Brewers. And it is.

I heard this on the broadcast the other day and I think it's a great line. "You're never as bad as you look when you're losing and you're never as good as you look when you're winning". Very rarely can you "feel" like a .500, or even .600 team. You just alternate between feeling good and bad.

Things feel pretty bad right now. But if you've played .500 ball when times are bad, that's a good thing in my book.Absolutely. The only thing that tempers this thought, one I spoke at the Sunday game, is if the pitching will return to 2010 form for a second half run or if it is a regression year due to young guys in sophomore slumps and need to figure out the adjustment. Was the two week stretch of good starting pitching after Bailey and Cueto came back just a streak or could it be the norm if both are in the rotation?

I do know one thing, the daily lineup is talented, both at the plate and in the field, and if we give them some pitching, we'll stay in the race. Pick up a starter who gives us above average starts the last two months and we can hang with the frontrunners in the division.

WebScorpion
06-07-2011, 10:24 AM
I actually laughed out loud when I saw the title of this thread. It's still before the All-Star break and the team is (barely) over .500...they're not even close to out of it. :rolleyes: Honestly, sometimes I think this is the first season some people have ever watched baseball. Our hitting is right where it should be near the top of the league and our pitching has had many setbacks, all of which may be cured by season's end. Several short DL stints leaves a pitcher very fresh for the stretch run. Give up if you'd like, as for me I still believe. :thumbup:

REDREAD
06-07-2011, 10:32 AM
Vlad would kill it in the GABP, I would imagine.

Fox's prediction would finally come true. :lol:

(We had a poster here named Fox in the early Redszone era, he kept predicting the Reds would get Vlad).

Hey, only 5 games back now :).. The hope is still alive.

LvJ
06-07-2011, 02:37 PM
And make Gomes look like a young Ken Griffey jr in the outfield. :laugh: But imagine all the golf swing homer.. err.. singles he could hit!

Edskin
06-07-2011, 02:47 PM
I actually laughed out loud when I saw the title of this thread. It's still before the All-Star break and the team is (barely) over .500...they're not even close to out of it. :rolleyes: Honestly, sometimes I think this is the first season some people have ever watched baseball. Our hitting is right where it should be near the top of the league and our pitching has had many setbacks, all of which may be cured by season's end. Several short DL stints leaves a pitcher very fresh for the stretch run. Give up if you'd like, as for me I still believe. :thumbup:

I don't think there is any doubt you could say the season is in danger of slipping away. We are at a crucial point and our margin for error is much less than it was just three weeks ago.

Let's just say we continue to struggle for the next three week/20 games. Let's say we go 8-12 over that stretch, which is a pace similar to what we've seen lately. If the Cards played decent baseball over that same stretch, we could very well fin ourselves 10+ games behind at the start of July. And at that point, even if we started to play at our expected pace, it would probably be too late.

I didn't say the season was over, I said it was slipping away, big difference.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-07-2011, 03:54 PM
The season isn't over, but this team simply cannot afford another disastrous road trip like the most recent one. And a seven-game California road trip isn't exactly what the doctor ordered. Four at SF then three at LA, who spent the past weekend enjoying extended batting practice off Reds pitchers in Cincy.

Follow that up with series vs. the Yankees, Rays, Tribe, Giants at home, Cards, Braves, etc., and while it isn't over now, it could be soon enough unless they figure out how to string some winning streaks together.

It doesn't help that the loathsome Cardinals seemingly play AA teams every night. Who do they play this week - Chattanooga?

westofyou
06-07-2011, 04:38 PM
It doesn't help that the loathsome Cardinals seemingly play AA teams every night. Who do they play this week - Chattanooga?

I do know that the Reds have played more games against the Central (57%) then the rest of the division.

Chip R
06-07-2011, 05:12 PM
I know this may not be soon enough for a lot of Reds fans, but I could see the Reds hanging in there until they get their starting pitching problems worked out and then go on a tear sometime in August. Whether it will be enough to win the division or wild card is debatable. But I really could see this team go on a hot streak later in the season.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-07-2011, 05:18 PM
I do know that the Reds have played more games against the Central (57%) then the rest of the division.

It was just annoying that we got the Indians, Phillies and Braves while the Cards were served up W's on a silver platter vs. the Royals, Padres and Astros.

A lot of it will even out, but not the interleague games.

Edskin
06-07-2011, 10:35 PM
I know this may not be soon enough for a lot of Reds fans, but I could see the Reds hanging in there until they get their starting pitching problems worked out and then go on a tear sometime in August. Whether it will be enough to win the division or wild card is debatable. But I really could see this team go on a hot streak later in the season.

Oh, I would be surprised if we DON'T get hot at some point-- we just don't want it to happen after it's too late.

Captain Hook
06-07-2011, 10:39 PM
I do know that the Reds have played more games against the Central (57%) then the rest of the division.

The central might be a little better this year.Looks like there's a good chance there will 3 teams over .500 this year and the Reds have played two of those teams a few time already.The Pirates aren't half bad either.

757690
06-07-2011, 11:28 PM
If we are gonna talk about a depressing subject such as this, mind as well have a good tune playing.

YouTube - ‪Paul Simon Slip Slidin' Away - Live at Abbey Road‬‏ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKxyoud_c-E)

Someone with more talent than myself should start a thread to counter this one called, "50 ways to win the Central."

I can only come up with a few (and they're not very good.)

Hit Joey and Jay back to back, Jack
Let Rolen swing away, Ray
Tell Volquez to throw a strike, Mike,
Just listen to me...

CrackerJack
06-08-2011, 12:24 AM
I actually laughed out loud when I saw the title of this thread. It's still before the All-Star break and the team is (barely) over .500...they're not even close to out of it. :rolleyes: Honestly, sometimes I think this is the first season some people have ever watched baseball. Our hitting is right where it should be near the top of the league and our pitching has had many setbacks, all of which may be cured by season's end. Several short DL stints leaves a pitcher very fresh for the stretch run. Give up if you'd like, as for me I still believe. :thumbup:

The Cubs make people feel good.

MikeThierry
06-08-2011, 12:37 AM
It doesn't help that the loathsome Cardinals seemingly play AA teams every night. Who do they play this week - Chattanooga?

The Cards have already finished their West Coast trips this year not to mention that they have played already 32 games on the road thus far so the schedule hasn't exactly been a cake walk. The only thing I will give the Reds as far as scheduling goes is that they have to play the Indians 6 times and the Cards don't face them at all this year. That is a completely unfair advantage to the Cards and if I was the GM of the Reds that would be a huge complaint in the off season.

Homer Bailey
06-08-2011, 12:39 AM
The Cards have already finished their West Coast trips this year not to mention that they have played already 32 games on the road thus far so the schedule hasn't exactly been a cake walk. The only thing I will give the Reds as far as scheduling goes is that they have to play the Indians 6 times and the Cards don't face them at all this year. That is a completely unfair advantage to the Cards and if I was the GM of the Reds that would be a huge complaint in the off season.

Spoken like a true Cardinal.

MikeThierry
06-08-2011, 12:45 AM
Spoken like a true Cardinal.

So you are saying its fair that the Reds have to play the Indians 6 times and the yankees 3 times yet the Cards don't have to play any of those teams? I mean there is whining like what LaRussa is doing about your broadcaster but what I bring up is legitimate and should be a topic of discussion. The backhanded comments are kind of childish on your part.

VR
06-08-2011, 12:48 AM
Someone with more talent than myself should start a thread to counter this one called, "50 ways to win the Central."

I can only come up with a few (and they're not very good.)

Hit Joey and Jay back to back, Jack
Let Rolen swing away, Ray
Tell Volquez to throw a strike, Mike,
Just listen to me...

Pure gold. Very nicely done.

if I may...

The ball you need to destroy, boy
You need to hit in the clutch, much
Just cut the hair clean, EV
And get the Central for thee

Homer Bailey
06-08-2011, 12:54 AM
So you are saying its fair that the Reds have to play the Indians 6 times and the yankees 3 times yet the Cards don't have to play any of those teams? I mean there is whining like what LaRussa is doing about your broadcaster but what I bring up is legitimate and should be a topic of discussion. The backhanded comments are kind of childish on your part.

File a complaint because we had to play the Indians? The Interleague schedule is imbalanced every single year. It's a money grab, and its not going away. The Reds-Indians and the Royals-Cards play every year to sell tickets. What could is filing a complaint going to do? Honestly? Is Selig going to handicap the matchups midseason based on how a team is doing? I doubt you would have found any Reds fans complaining about playing the Indians when the schedules came out.

MikeThierry
06-08-2011, 01:01 AM
File a complaint because we had to play the Indians? The Interleague schedule is imbalanced every single year. It's a money grab, and its not going away. The Reds-Indians and the Royals-Cards play every year to sell tickets. What could is filing a complaint going to do? Honestly? Is Selig going to handicap the matchups midseason based on how a team is doing? I doubt you would have found any Reds fans complaining about playing the Indians when the schedules came out.

Ok, thank you for actually debating a point instead of giving out back handed comments. I see your point here.