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Benihana
06-06-2011, 11:32 AM
Let the fun begin!

dougdirt
06-06-2011, 01:03 PM
Everyone says the Pirates are absolutely 100% taking Gerrit Cole.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 01:06 PM
Everyone says the Pirates are absolutely 100% taking Gerrit Cole.

I won't be looking fwd to the Reds facing him, but good for them taking a top talent.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 01:23 PM
I won't be looking fwd to the Reds facing him, but good for them taking a top talent.

Pirates are beginning to look like the next Royals, who are looking like the next D-Rays.

Cole, Tallion, Heredia, Allie, Sanchez, Alvarez, McCutchen, Tabata. They are building a pretty strong system. Of course it helps when you pick in the Top 5 every year.

dougdirt
06-06-2011, 01:26 PM
Pirates are beginning to look like the next Royals, who are looking like the next D-Rays.

Cole, Tallion, Heredia, Allie, Sanchez, Alvarez, McCutchen, Tabata. They are building a pretty strong system. Of course it helps when you pick in the Top 5 every year.

I would be concerned if I didn't like what we have so much. Wasn't it just last year we were "the next Rays"?

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 01:27 PM
Pirates are beginning to look like the next Royals, who are looking like the next D-Rays.

Cole, Tallion, Heredia, Allie, Sanchez, Alvarez, McCutchen, Tabata. They are building a pretty strong system. Of course it helps when you pick in the Top 5 every year.

Sure but Alvarez, Cole, Tallion and McCutchen look better than the days of Neil Walker, Bryan Bullington and John Van Benschoten.

dougdirt
06-06-2011, 01:28 PM
Sure but Alvarez, Cole, Tallion and McCutchen look better than the days of Neil Walker, Bryan Bullington and John Van Benschoten.

That is because the more recent group was actually the best players available (or really close to it) when they were drafted, as opposed to the older group who were more signability picks.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 01:32 PM
That is because the more recent group was actually the best players available (or really close to it) when they were drafted, as opposed to the older group who were more signability picks.

Kind of my original point, good for them to be in the spot where they have been over the past few years. Baseball is better when there aren't complete doormats. I like to see the downtrodden running their franchises the right way. As a fan it is nice to see TB, KC and Pitt on the way up.

Along with Cincy, that is.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 03:11 PM
Lots of rumors that the M's will take Lindor over Rendon at 2. That would disgust me if I was an M's fan, but it should keep things interesting!

lollipopcurve
06-06-2011, 03:17 PM
Lots of rumors that the M's will take Lindor over Rendon at 2. That would disgust me if I was an M's fan, but it should keep things interesting!

I'm all for position players going off the board earlier than anticipated in that it could push more pitching down.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 03:42 PM
I'm all for position players going off the board earlier than anticipated in that it could push more pitching down.

Generally agree, although in this particular scenario both players were unanimously expected to go before the Reds pick, so it doesn't really matter.

nate1213
06-06-2011, 05:05 PM
I would be concerned if I didn't like what we have so much. Wasn't it just last year we were "the next Rays"?

Doug, do you like our top 1-5 of Chapman, Hamilton, Mesoraco, Alonso, and Yorman, better than when Cueto, Homer, Bruce, Votto, and Stubbs were our top five?

Benihana
06-06-2011, 05:40 PM
Doug, do you like our top 1-5 of Chapman, Hamilton, Mesoraco, Alonso, and Yorman, better than when Cueto, Homer, Bruce, Votto, and Stubbs were our top five?

My name is not Doug, but I don't (and this may be the wrong thread for that discussion.)

Back on topic, BA is reporting there is a 23 year old Cuban defector LHP that throws 95 and has come out of nowhere and now may get selected as high as #9 overall. Seems to be a guy that comes from nowhere every year, such as Hayden Simpson last year. Could be an interesting candidate for the Reds at 27 given the Chapman connection...

Also sounds like Cole-Rendon-Bauer is starting to get locked in as the top 3...

dougdirt
06-06-2011, 05:44 PM
Doug, do you like our top 1-5 of Chapman, Hamilton, Mesoraco, Alonso, and Yorman, better than when Cueto, Homer, Bruce, Votto, and Stubbs were our top five?

No. That group of Cueto/Bailey/Bruce/Votto was incredibly special. Plus, when those guys were all at their top they were all in AA/AAA except Bruce. Tons of questions still surrounding Hamilton/Yorman/Chapman. And Chapman is no longer considered a prospect.

camisadelgolf
06-06-2011, 07:00 PM
I still consider Chapman a prospect.

dougdirt
06-06-2011, 07:08 PM
I still consider Chapman a prospect.

Well you shouldn't, because he isn't eligible for the 2012 ROY award.

camisadelgolf
06-06-2011, 07:11 PM
Well you shouldn't, because he isn't eligible for the 2012 ROY award.
He qualifies for the 2011 RotY Award, and I'm pretty sure we'll be in 2011 all year.

dougdirt
06-06-2011, 07:20 PM
He qualifies for the 2011 RotY Award, and I'm pretty sure we'll be in 2011 all year.

Except that his prospect status is determined by his qualifying for the next seasons ROY award and he can't win it because he has spent more than 45 days on the 25 man roster (not counting September) and that disqualifies him. If he doesn't throw another pitch in the majors this year, he will not be a prospect in the offseason lists if they use the ROY standards.

Scrap Irony
06-06-2011, 07:23 PM
Wouldn't he be a prospect this year for this year's discussion, but not one for next?

If not, is this a semantic argument that doesn't matter at all to the overall point?

camisadelgolf
06-06-2011, 07:28 PM
Wouldn't he be a prospect this year for this year's discussion, but not one for next?

If not, is this a semantic argument that doesn't matter at all to the overall point?
That's the way I see it. I think dougdirt and I will just need to agree to disagree on this one.

dougdirt
06-06-2011, 07:44 PM
Wouldn't he be a prospect this year for this year's discussion, but not one for next?

If not, is this a semantic argument that doesn't matter at all to the overall point?

If you have a prosepect list that is created right now, Aroldis Chapman should not be on it because he is not a prospect anymore by the ROY standards that we use to determine who is a "prospect".

Benihana
06-06-2011, 07:47 PM
Can we please not have a 2 page discussion on whether or not Aroldis Chapman qualifies as a prospect on the Draft Day Thread?

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 07:48 PM
Anyone see that slide where Rendon broke his ankle? Yikes !!!

Gallen5862
06-06-2011, 07:51 PM
Jaxred or Doug dirt or someone in this thread could they go to the mock draft thread? We have a couple teams at end of round one that needs someone to pick.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 08:02 PM
I like the idea of the Reds taking the Cuban if there is no one they really love left at 27. Being that he's 23 years old, I'd assume he could probably effectively contribute during this window of contention.

I'd still rather see guys like Bell, Baez, Fernandez, Norris, Meyer and possibly even Purke, but if none of them are available, I wouldn't mind seeing them take a chance on this guy.

Gallen5862
06-06-2011, 08:02 PM
Mock draft finished if anyone wants to use as a reference while we wait for picks.

Plus Plus
06-06-2011, 08:09 PM
First pick is in- Pirates pick Gerrit Cole. Mariners on the clock.

Doc. Scott
06-06-2011, 08:14 PM
Hultzen taken by Seattle over Rendon. Don't blame them.

Plus Plus
06-06-2011, 08:14 PM
Mariners select Donny Hultzen, LHP out of Virginia.

Diamondbacks on the clock.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 08:15 PM
BBA says now the Cuban is NOT eligible with details to follow.....

Doc. Scott
06-06-2011, 08:19 PM
Arizona takes Trevor Bauer #3, as projected by Baseball Prospectus.

Doc. Scott
06-06-2011, 08:26 PM
Orioles go for Dylan Bundy, the top high school pitcher in the draft, at #4.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 08:26 PM
Orioles take Bundy. Rendon is sliding. Too bad you can't make trades like the NFL or NBA Drafts.

OnBaseMachine
06-06-2011, 08:28 PM
I would run naked around my town if Anthony Rendon falls to the Reds at 27.

Doc. Scott
06-06-2011, 08:29 PM
Don't loosen that belt just yet.

OnBaseMachine
06-06-2011, 08:30 PM
Don't loosen that belt just yet.

Yeah there's no chance it happens. I'll be shocked if he falls out of the top seven.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 08:32 PM
I'd rather see Starling fall if miracles were going to happen

Plus Plus
06-06-2011, 08:33 PM
Bubba Starling goes #5 to KC.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 08:34 PM
Glad to see him go there..... Kansas Kid goes to KC !!

Brutus
06-06-2011, 08:35 PM
Strasburg, Harper and now likely Rendon to the Nationals? Are you serious? Wow!

Doc. Scott
06-06-2011, 08:37 PM
Not surprised the Royals took Starling- Rendon would be fighting for time with their other young stars-to-be.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 08:37 PM
Strasburg, Harper and now likely Rendon to the Nationals? Are you serious? Wow!

Could go down as the best three consecutive draft picks for a team in history.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 08:38 PM
I just went back to confirm.... Bud just said the Washington Naturals were on the clock.

AWA85
06-06-2011, 08:38 PM
Was hoping Bubba Starling would fall a little more to increase the odds of him going to play football for my Huskers! Hometown team picking him up, squashes those chances.

LoganBuck
06-06-2011, 08:41 PM
Thanks for the updates guys, I am at work, and can run by and check this thread. Don't have time for much else

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 08:42 PM
Rendon does go to Nats

Doc. Scott
06-06-2011, 08:43 PM
Archie Bradley, the #2 HS arm, to Arizona- that's their unprotected pick, so they must feel confident they can sign him.

Plus Plus
06-06-2011, 08:43 PM
Rendon went 6th to the Nationals.

Archie Bradley goes 7th to the Diamondbacks.

Plus Plus
06-06-2011, 08:43 PM
Archie Bradley, the #2 HS arm, to Arizona- that's their unprotected pick, so they must feel confident they can sign him.

He is being reported as a tough sign, since he has a commitment to play QB at Oklahoma.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 08:45 PM
Ballsy move by Arizona taking Archie with the unprotected pick. If they sign both, that's an amazing haul of pitching.

5 minutes between picks is too much time. Should shorten to 3 minutes next year, putting it in line with NFL Day 2.

Plus Plus
06-06-2011, 08:48 PM
Francisco Lindor to the Indians.

Plus Plus
06-06-2011, 08:53 PM
Javier Baez to Cubs.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 08:53 PM
Javier Baez to Cubs.

From Jax, Fl !!!

Plus Plus
06-06-2011, 08:54 PM
So, what's the insider scoop on Baez then? :)

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 08:54 PM
Sorry, signed non-disclosure agreement !!

Brutus
06-06-2011, 08:56 PM
Could go down as the best three consecutive draft picks for a team in history.

Yea no doubt about that. It's an impressive haul.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 08:58 PM
BA just posted that Rendon was still on the board.... Ooops.....

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 08:59 PM
Spangenberg to Padres

Benihana
06-06-2011, 09:03 PM
Spangenberg to Padres

Good. Would like to see more guys like this taken that could push arms like Meyer, Fernandez, Jungmann, Guerreri, Barnes, Gray, or Norris towards the Reds at 27.

EDIT: I forgot Jed Bradley. Would LOVE to see him slide to the Reds.

I'd also be OK with Robert Stephenson or Dillon Howard.

That's 10 pitchers with 16 picks remaining. Hopefully they won't disappoint.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 09:05 PM
Springer off the board to Stro's

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 09:10 PM
Jungman P - Longhorns to Brew Crew

Benihana
06-06-2011, 09:11 PM
Jungmann to Milwaukee. Good draft for the NL Central so far.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 09:16 PM
Mets were determined to find Nimmo. They took the 36th ranked player at 13.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 09:21 PM
Jose Fernandez to the Marlins. Shades of Alex Fernandez.

8 arms left with 11 picks to go. Let's hope some guys like Mikie Mahtook, Jackie Bradley, Andrew Susac, and Austin Hedges go in the next few picks and continue to push the pitchers down.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 09:22 PM
Marlins draft HS pitcher out of Tampa. Jose Fernandez.

Doc. Scott
06-06-2011, 09:24 PM
Mets were determined to find Nimmo. They took the 36th ranked player at 13.

Ha, good one.

11larkin11
06-06-2011, 09:25 PM
Dang. I'm a big fan of Fernandez.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 09:27 PM
Damn. There goes Jed Bradley.

Brewers got a hell of a haul with Bradley and Jungmann.
Also like the Cubs pick of Javier Baez, potentially the future Aramis Ramirez.
Hope the Reds can continue the momentum for the NL Central.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 09:27 PM
Brewers select Jed Bradley from Ga Tech. Big lefty

Benihana
06-06-2011, 09:29 PM
Guerrieri, Barnes and Gray are the best arms left.

I'd still LOVE to see the Reds get really aggressive and go for Josh Bell.

Gallen5862
06-06-2011, 09:30 PM
Would you draft Matt Purke if he was there at pick #27? Or do you like those arms better if they were there?

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 09:37 PM
Dodgers went for Reed out of Stanford. Called a reach, Mayo thinks the Dodgers might have a deal in place.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 09:37 PM
Would you draft Matt Purke if he was there at pick #27? Or do you like those arms better if they were there?

I wouldn't be unhappy if they took Purke at 27. Though I think that Guerreri has similar upside, and Barnes and Gray are safer.

I would prioritize them as follows:

1. Matt Barnes
2. Taylor Guerreri
3. Sonny Gray
4. Alex Meyer
5. Daniel Norris
6. Matt Purke
7. Stephenson/Howard

Gallen5862
06-06-2011, 09:41 PM
Thanks for the list Benihana. In our mock draft I selected Daniel Norris for the Reds at #27.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 09:45 PM
A's take a College player. (sun sets in West), Sonny Gray Vanderbilt

marcshoe
06-06-2011, 09:45 PM
A's take a College player. (sun sets in West), Sonny Gray Vanderbilt

Good name. Where'd he go to school? ;)

Benihana
06-06-2011, 09:47 PM
Hearing Boston will take Barnes

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 09:47 PM
I should learn to love the comma......

Benihana
06-06-2011, 09:48 PM
Guerreri, Norris, or Meyer- Reds should take whichever of these three is still on the board.

lollipopcurve
06-06-2011, 09:49 PM
Guerreri, Norris, or Meyer- Reds should take whichever of these three is still on the board.

Guerreri has some makeup questions. Pass. Plenty of arms out there.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 09:52 PM
Guerreri, Norris, or Meyer- Reds should take whichever of these three is still on the board.

Guerreri has some makeup questions. Pass. Plenty of arms out there.

I'm fine with taking Meyer or Norris over Guerreri, but I'd still take Guerreri over the low upside college arms like Anderson, Garvin and Gilmartin. BA has him as the 10th best player (and 7th best pitcher) in the entire draft.

If any of my three guys reach their potential, they are a #1 or #2. If any of the latter three reach their potential, they are a #4 or #5 on a good team. Who would you rather have?

Benihana
06-06-2011, 09:54 PM
By the way, don't rule out Kolten Wong or Levi Michael for the Reds. I personally like the available arms better, but I wouldn't be shocked with either college middle infielder, especially given the Reds history of taking up-the-middle guys.

There goes T.Anderson. Good riddance.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 09:57 PM
What is the "makeup" issue? The scouting reports look awesome

Benihana
06-06-2011, 09:59 PM
What is the "makeup" issue? The scouting reports look awesome

John Manuel of BA via Twitter:
I know there are makeup questions, but an arm like Taylor Guerrieri has a ton of value at this point. #mlbdraft

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 10:00 PM
I see vague references, but nothing ever hints as to what it is.

lollipopcurve
06-06-2011, 10:01 PM
If any of my three guys reach their potential, they are a #1 or #2. If any of the latter three reach their potential, they are a #4 or #5 on a good team. Who would you rather have?

I probably like Norris here. Skeptical of Guerreri, and iffy on a a 6'9" guy who has only really come around this year. I wouldn't mind a safer guy who profiles as a 4/5 over either of those guys.




What is the "makeup" issue? The scouting reports look awesome

Switching high schools under questionable circumstances. Some off-field incidents, per BA.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 10:03 PM
I doubt Meyer lasts past the next couple of picks. Looks like it will come down to Norris, Guerreri, or one of the college middle infielders. Unless the Reds absolutely love one of the HS RHP Stephenson or Howard more than anyone else.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 10:05 PM
They have Guerrieri as #10 talent.....

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:05 PM
PG saying Wong to Cards...

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 10:06 PM
Gammons was not wong.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 10:07 PM
I'm surprised at how little interest there is in the draft on RedsZone this year.

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 10:08 PM
It's that low pick....

REDblooded
06-06-2011, 10:08 PM
I will do my first ever backflip if the Reds land Meyer...

marcshoe
06-06-2011, 10:08 PM
Later pick's drained interest. I admit I haven't followed the prospects this year, unlike the past few.

The kid with makeup issues sounds interesting, though. I'm assuming he's emo, like my nephew who sometimes wears makeup.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 10:09 PM
Let's hope Mahtook and Michael go in these next couple of picks so that the Reds can get one of those three arms.

Blake Swihart could be an interesting guy if the Reds believed he could play 3B, but I can't see them going that route.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 10:12 PM
Meyer to the Nats. What a draft.

C'mon Norris or Guerrieri!!

3 picks left until the Reds...

Benihana
06-06-2011, 10:17 PM
Crap, there goes Guerreri.

Daniel Norris, Josh Bell, or BUST!

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 10:17 PM
Rays take Guerreri

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:17 PM
I have to think Levi is the pick for Cincy, if available.

SanDiegoRed
06-06-2011, 10:18 PM
There goes Guerreri...

Superdude
06-06-2011, 10:19 PM
crap

mdccclxix
06-06-2011, 10:19 PM
When things are going bad, all you have to look forward to is the draft, I guess it's a good thing there's less interest this year.

lollipopcurve
06-06-2011, 10:20 PM
Stephenson is a nice high upside arm still there.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:23 PM
Ross taken by SD, heard his name a few times for Cincy.

RedLegsToday
06-06-2011, 10:23 PM
Joe Ross to the Padres. 1 more until the Reds are on the clock

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:24 PM
Michael, Stephenson, Gilmartin, Garvin all still around as potential rumored targets

Grande Donkey
06-06-2011, 10:25 PM
Please be Norris.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 10:25 PM
Watch the Red Sox break our heart and take Norris...

They always seem to take the guy I would have.

Kingspoint
06-06-2011, 10:29 PM
The MLB network has been really good. They've been pretty accurate with most of the picks.

Grande Donkey
06-06-2011, 10:29 PM
Reds on the clock and Norris is still available.

cinreds21
06-06-2011, 10:30 PM
Here.We.Go.

Kingspoint
06-06-2011, 10:30 PM
So, who's the BPA right now?

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 10:30 PM
Norris

Benihana
06-06-2011, 10:31 PM
Let's go D.Norris!!

Gallen5862
06-06-2011, 10:35 PM
Dennis Norris is the highest ranked player on the Baseball America board. I am hoping Norris is the pick.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:35 PM
Did they pass?

JaxRed
06-06-2011, 10:35 PM
Reds over the time limit

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:35 PM
Hart calling out Walt! Bastard!

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:36 PM
Steohenson

redsmetz
06-06-2011, 10:36 PM
Stephenson

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:37 PM
Not Norris, Robert Stephenson

Benihana
06-06-2011, 10:38 PM
Could be worse, could probably be better. Overall I'm OK with this.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:40 PM
http://vmedia.rivals.com/IMAGES/PROSPECT/PHOTO/ROBERT-STEPHENSON_150_3_11.JPG

Rank 30. Robert Stephenson - RHP

Alhambra HS (Calif.)
Birthdate: 02/24/1993
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 190 lbs.
Bats: R
Throws: R
While the college arms are getting the bulk of the attention in this year's class, there are a number of high-octane high schoolers generating first-round buzz, as well. Perhaps a half-step behind the elite prepsters is Stephenson, who has drawn some comparisons to Matt Garza.
Stephenson has plenty of arm strength, with a fastball that has touched 97 mph. The NoCal produc, who has a commitment to the University of Washington, also has shown a curve that is a plus at times, though it's been inconsistent. He has a changeup, but like with many high school pitchers, it's a little behind his other pitches.
Stephenson is not just a thrower -- he throws strikes, by and large -- but his control is better than his command right now. But with a good pitcher's body and excellent makeup, he could be a good choice for someone picking in the bottom third of the first round.

Caveat Emperor
06-06-2011, 10:44 PM
He looks like he'd get carded at a PG-13 movie.

Brutus
06-06-2011, 10:45 PM
Kind of surprising they went the high school route with all the buzz of going a high floor college pitcher, but seems like a pitcher with nice upside.

redsmetz
06-06-2011, 10:46 PM
My son texted me saying he apparently threw back to back no-hitters. He's come to the right place then.

Joseph
06-06-2011, 10:46 PM
I was kind of hoping for the kid from LSU, but a high upside high school arm is ok too.

kaldaniels
06-06-2011, 10:47 PM
Born in 93? Talk about making you feel old.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:48 PM
4.0 GPA, sounds like he's a character kid as well.

REDblooded
06-06-2011, 10:48 PM
Keith Law had him ranked above Norris

Kingspoint
06-06-2011, 10:51 PM
Could there be a bigger idiot than Bud Selig?

He pronounces the City the kid is from as "MAR-ti-NEZ", as if there's never been a player before who has ever played baseball anywhere with that same name for a last name.

One of the greatest players who ever lived, Joe DiMaggio, is from the same City. You'd think he'd know how to pronounce the name. That's just racial insensitivity at it's worst.

lollipopcurve
06-06-2011, 10:52 PM
I like Stephenson. Athletic with upside and some pitchability, plus smarts. His delivery looks like it has some funk/deception. Interesting looking young pitcher.

Edd Roush
06-06-2011, 10:53 PM
I personally like the idea of drafting a kid who already has a plus fastball and plus breaking ball. I wanted upside and I got it. Don't know enough about Stephenson or Norris to know who is better.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:54 PM
Could there be a bigger idiot than Bud Selig?

He pronounces the City the kid is from as "MAR-ti-NEZ", as if there's never been a player before who has ever played baseball anywhere with that same name for a last name.

One of the greatest players who ever lived, Joe DiMaggio, is from the same City. You'd think he'd know how to pronounce the name. That's just racial insensitivity at it's worst.

He referred to Cincy as Cin-cinnata a few times.

Gallen5862
06-06-2011, 10:54 PM
Did the board ctrash? After the Reds pick I kept getting a message that the board wasout of memory? Where did Law have Robert Stephenson rated? Who should we hope falls to the Reds in the second round?

Superdude
06-06-2011, 10:54 PM
I like it. Plenty of ability to be an impact player and seems to be the kind of kid that will work to make it happen. It's not a scrappy up the middle player, and for that I'm grateful regardless of where Stephenson's career takes him

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 10:56 PM
Did the board ctrash? After the Reds pick I kept getting a message that the board wasout of memory? Where did Law have Robert Stephenson rated? Who should we hope falls to the Reds in the second round?

Law liked the pick. He had him going to SF right after the Reds.

marcshoe
06-06-2011, 10:56 PM
Could there be a bigger idiot than Bud Selig?

He pronounces the City the kid is from as "MAR-ti-NEZ", as if there's never been a player before who has ever played baseball anywhere with that same name for a last name.

One of the greatest players who ever lived, Joe DiMaggio, is from the same City. You'd think he'd know how to pronounce the name. That's just racial insensitivity at it's worst.

I was stuck in a terrible traffic jam in Martinez once. Was only there because I took a wrong turn.

The first video I watched of Stephenson looked like he was coming almost completely over the top, but I haven't seen that in any of the other vids. His stuff looks great.

Kingspoint
06-06-2011, 11:01 PM
Did the board ctrash? After the Reds pick I kept getting a message that the board wasout of memory? Been getting that message for the last two hours. Tried rebooting my machine and running various scans thinking it was me.

Kingspoint
06-06-2011, 11:02 PM
double-post

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 11:04 PM
So much for the "BPA in every pick" for TB.

Gallen5862
06-06-2011, 11:07 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/

Pick 1/27: Reds Select Robert Stephenson


Stephenson and Joe Ross were the top prospects in Northern California's high school class, and the BA list had Stephenson ahead of Ross, but at this point it comes down to personal preference.

Stephenson, a Washington commitment, touched 97 mph with his fastball this spring and had more consistent velocity on his heater than Ross, sitting 93-95 at times. He's also got a power curveball, and his package was good enough for the Reds to pop despite their recent preference for college picks. Stephenson is the first prep pitcher the Reds have drafted in the first round since Homer Bailey in 2004.

Blitz Dorsey
06-06-2011, 11:10 PM
Law liked the pick. He had him going to SF right after the Reds.

Law is so full of (stuff). In his final mock draft, Law had Stephenson going 16th overall to the Dodgers.

This is a great deal for the Reds so late in the first round. A big-time high school arm that everyone projected as a mid-first rounder. Fastball that tops out at 97 and very good control to go with it. What's not to like here.

PuffyPig
06-06-2011, 11:11 PM
Could there be a bigger idiot than Bud Selig?



Tony Larussa
Chris Carpenter
Chad Kroeger (that's for you Jay Bruce, not the player, the poster)
Alex Burrows
Chris Pronger

I think that's it.

15fan
06-06-2011, 11:11 PM
Last HS pitcher from CA drafted by the Reds in round 1:

Chris Gruler.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 11:11 PM
Law is so full of (stuff). In his final mock draft, Law had Stephenson going 16th overall to the Dodgers.

This is a great deal for the Reds so late in the first round. A big-time high school arm that everyone projected as a mid-first rounder. Fastball that tops out at 97 and very good control to go with it. What's not to like here.

Law updated today. Maybe you missed it.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&page=LawMockDraft4.0

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 11:12 PM
Tony Larussa
Chris Carpenter
Chad Kroeger (that's for you Jay Bruce, not the player, the poster)
Alex Burrows
Chris Pronger

I think that's it.

How about Anthony Weiner?

Gallen5862
06-06-2011, 11:13 PM
Who are you hoping makes it to the Reds in Round 2?

dougdirt
06-06-2011, 11:13 PM
I am a fan.

OnBaseMachine
06-06-2011, 11:14 PM
Stephenson is one of the guys I wanted. Nice pick by the Reds.

Blitz Dorsey
06-06-2011, 11:15 PM
Law updated today. Maybe you missed it.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&page=LawMockDraft4.0

He said his mock 3.0 was his "final" mock ... I guess he changed his mind.

So, in the matter of two days, he had Stephenson dropping from 16th to 28th? At least he got the final result close, but I wonder why Law had such a drastic change in draft stock in the matter of 48 hours.

edabbs44
06-06-2011, 11:19 PM
He said his mock 3.0 was his "final" mock ... I guess he changed his mind.

So, in the matter of two days, he had Stephenson dropping from 16th to 28th? At least he got the final result close, but I wonder why Law had such a drastic change in draft stock in the matter of 48 hours.

The Dodgers were a wild card due to their financial situation, maybe it was signability?

Benihana
06-06-2011, 11:30 PM
I personally like the idea of drafting a kid who already has a plus fastball and plus breaking ball. I wanted upside and I got it. Don't know enough about Stephenson or Norris to know who is better.

Agreed. I'm content with this pick.

I'm especially glad that they didn't take a high floor low ceiling college guy. Upside, upside, upside. Now go get Josh Bell in the 2nd round and (in the voice of Teddy KGB) "Pay the man hees monny!"

Gallen5862
06-06-2011, 11:34 PM
Josh Bell or Matt Purke or Daniel Norris would be great picks for Reds in second round.

lollipopcurve
06-06-2011, 11:37 PM
I'm especially glad that they didn't take a high floor low ceiling college guy.

How'd you like the Mike Leake pick?

Benihana
06-06-2011, 11:39 PM
Josh Bell or Matt Purke or Daniel Norris would be great picks for Reds in second round.

Yep, those would be my top 3.

Also some other names I like:

Dillon Howard
Travis Harrison
Trevor Story (just went to the Rockies)
Jason Esposito
Alex Dickerson
Grayson Garvin (didn't like him in the 1st, but would happily take him in the 2nd)
Aaron Westlake
Dillon Maples
Dwight Smith, Jr.
Dante Bichette, Jr.
Matt Dean
Anthony Meo
Williams Jerez

Benihana
06-06-2011, 11:46 PM
How'd you like the Mike Leake pick?

I was OK with it - not disgusted, not ecstatic. Liked it the more I learned about him. Look it up (it's searchable on RZ)

I've obviously been wrong before (I preferred Tyler Matzek and Grant Green to Leake). Only time will tell.

Benihana
06-06-2011, 11:49 PM
Crazy that Norris is still on the board at 52

marcshoe
06-06-2011, 11:50 PM
I see Bichette went to the Yanks. Just as well; the name doesn't bring back good memories.

Blitz Dorsey
06-07-2011, 12:06 AM
I see Bichette went to the Yanks. Just as well; the name doesn't bring back good memories.

Bichette happens. (Couldn't resist.)

SirFelixCat
06-07-2011, 12:57 AM
During the Reds game, they mentioned that Stephenson avg'd just a hair below 2 K's per inning and was named the California HS player of the year this year.


For the 27th pick, you'd be hard pressed to want more.

Well done, Reds! :thumbup:

IslandRed
06-07-2011, 01:27 AM
He said his mock 3.0 was his "final" mock ... I guess he changed his mind.

So, in the matter of two days, he had Stephenson dropping from 16th to 28th? At least he got the final result close, but I wonder why Law had such a drastic change in draft stock in the matter of 48 hours.

Must have figured out Stephenson wasn't likely to go 16-ish and then it's a matter of finding the next landing spot. That's the difference between a Top (something) list and a mock draft -- the mock drafters don't really care how good a player is, only when they think a team will pull the trigger.

Kingspoint
06-07-2011, 01:43 AM
I was stuck in a terrible traffic jam in Martinez once. Was only there because I took a wrong turn.

Played a lot of basketball there. They had some great competition on a particular outside court.

FlightRick
06-07-2011, 01:43 AM
I don't want to put words in Peter Gammons' mouth, but after we drafted Stephenson, he came right out and said that he's a huge upside arm who he PERSONALLY knew was prized by a team with a "mid-1st-round pick," and who only would have passed on Stephenson because they decided they could only pay slot. He liked our pick; now, I think I do, too, after getting over the upset at not taking Norris.

The Dodgers had a mid-1st-round pick. In fact, it was the 16th pick exactly. The one Law thought would be used on Stephenson, mayhap?

Gammons further said that while Stephenson would require slightly over slot, signability would not be an issue for a team with just a few bucks to spare in their draft budget. Which is not the Dodgers. *ahem*

This is a case where I think 2 + 2 might = 4. You could even work the Reds' lateness (the 5:00 clock had expired at least 150 seconds before they finally picked) on submitting their pick into your conspiracy theory. Hey: a guy they didn't expect to be on the board was still there, and so they went into panic/rapid-research mode before finally taking Stephenson and not letting him drop to that 28th pick that Law foresaw. Makes perfect sense.


Rick

fearofpopvol1
06-07-2011, 01:56 AM
Overall I'm pleased. I was not in favor of Garvin or Anderson as the 1st round pick and Stephenson was my favorite of the players linked to the Reds for sure. Stephenson definitely has a lot of upside and was a good pick that balanced "safe" with "potential" and I'm a fan of that approach. Good job Reds.

BakoTheTako
06-07-2011, 07:48 AM
I like the pick. I would rather take a guy who has a 15% chance of becoming a #1 than a guy who has a 30% of becoming a #4/5.

Benihana
06-07-2011, 09:21 AM
I like the pick. I would rather take a guy who has a 15% chance of becoming a #1 than a guy who has a 30% of becoming a #4/5.

Me too, but I'd put the odds more like 30% to become a #1 or 2 (Stephenson) vs. 60% to become a #4 or #5 (Garvin/Gilmartin/Anderson). Either way, I like it.

Mario-Rijo
06-07-2011, 09:48 AM
I hadn't got an opportunity to look at prospects at all this year so tough for me to judge the pick value wise but my #1 preference this year was high upside arm so I am pretty pleased with the pick.

lollipopcurve
06-07-2011, 10:21 AM
Me too, but I'd put the odds more like 30% to become a #1 or 2 (Stephenson) vs. 60% to become a #4 or #5 (Garvin/Gilmartin/Anderson). Either way, I like it.

Where do these percentages come from?

Interesting that in the pick directly after the Reds the Braves went with Gilmartin.

edabbs44
06-07-2011, 11:08 AM
Where do these percentages come from?

Interesting that in the pick directly after the Reds, the Braves went with Gilmartin.

Right. And interesting that Gilmartin is compared to Mike Minor, who was draft day kryptonite on here for some back in the day.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=76368&page=9

You know, the 23 year old guy with 100 Ks in 94 career AAA innings in the Braves org, to go along with the 67 hits let up and roughly 2 ERA.

You know...that guy.

Mario-Rijo
06-07-2011, 11:20 AM
Right. And interesting that Gilmartin is compared to Mike Minor, who was draft day kryptonite on here for some back in the day.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=76368&page=9

You know, the 23 year old guy with 100 Ks in 94 career AAA innings in the Braves org, to go along with the 67 hits let up and roughly 2 ERA.

You know...that guy.

Just for the record I didn't dislike Minor in fact I kind of liked him due to his overall polish and handedness but much preferred a high upside top of the rotation type. My top target was Matzek.

Benihana
06-07-2011, 11:36 AM
Where do these percentages come from?

Interesting that in the pick directly after the Reds the Braves went with Gilmartin.

Totally made up off the top of my head. :beerme:

The Braves also have selected six pitchers in the first round since 2003, and have gotten a grand total of 35 major league innings of a 6.06 ERA out of them. While there is certainly still time for them to develop (and Minor has looked solid in the minors), I wouldn't use them as the beacon for success in drafting pitching in the first round.

lollipopcurve
06-07-2011, 11:36 AM
Just for the record I didn't dislike Minor in fact I kind of liked him due to his overall polish and handedness but much preferred a high upside top of the rotation type. My top target was Matzek.

Many did. Colorado was roundly praised in the media for ponying up for him (he cost a few extra million).

He's got a 9.82 ERA for the year and was just demoted from high A to low A, where he had a terrible first start. 51 walks in 36 innings.

Just goes to show......

Benihana
06-07-2011, 11:37 AM
I too liked Matzek more than any other attainable arm in that draft.

Brutus
06-07-2011, 11:42 AM
Me too, but I'd put the odds more like 30% to become a #1 or 2 (Stephenson) vs. 60% to become a #4 or #5 (Garvin/Gilmartin/Anderson). Either way, I like it.

Beni, I'll see if I can find it, but I broke down the draft over a 10-year span and the success rate of simply getting to arbitration in the majors... and the overall success was only about 33% for all players. Pitchers were lower than position players, as you could imagine.

So I think 15% and 30% is probably much more accurate based on that research I did. I think, honestly, pitchers have less than a third of a chance of even becoming a bonafide Major League starter for more than a cup of joe.

Edit: I forgot that the more inclusive study I did was not posted here. But here (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=78818&highlight=draft) is a post I made about the first round results from 1990-1999...

I found that in those 10 years, only 45 of 82 college pitchers taken even reached one season in the big leagues. Only 33 got to arbitration. Granted, I did not break down whether they were TOR material or back-end starters or even relievers, but that only one third even made it to arbitration, obviously the odds of being a TOR or back-end are specifically going to be less than 33%.

Benihana
06-07-2011, 11:54 AM
Beni, I'll see if I can find it, but I broke down the draft over a 10-year span and the success rate of simply getting to arbitration in the majors... and the overall success was only about 33% for all players. Pitchers were lower than position players, as you could imagine.

So I think 15% and 30% is probably much more accurate based on that research I did. I think, honestly, pitchers have less than a third of a chance of even becoming a bonafide Major League starter for more than a cup of joe.

Fair point. Just a hunch, but I do believe that scouting/success has improved as information/resources are becoming more ubiquitous. I'd be curious to see the success rate of first rounders in the last 5-7 years, although it may be too early to look at such data.

edabbs44
06-07-2011, 11:58 AM
Many did. Colorado was roundly praised in the media for ponying up for him (he cost a few extra million).

He's got a 9.82 ERA for the year and was just demoted from high A to low A, where he had a terrible first start. 51 walks in 36 innings.

Just goes to show......

Right...I have learned to not criticize the player as much as the direction or theme. Not sure that this makes sense, but to be honest, how many of us a pro scouts or have seen these guys play? To complain about the draft of a certain player probably makes less sense than complaining about the drafting of a project, an overdraft, a specific position or level.

edabbs44
06-07-2011, 11:59 AM
Totally made up off the top of my head. :beerme:

The Braves also have selected six pitchers in the first round since 2003, and have gotten a grand total of 35 major league innings of a 6.06 ERA out of them. While there is certainly still time for them to develop (and Minor has looked solid in the minors), I wouldn't use them as the beacon for success in drafting pitching in the first round.

And I think they showed that their current sdcouting director has only been in place for 3 years now.

Benihana
06-07-2011, 12:01 PM
And I think they showed that their current sdcouting director has only been in place for 3 years now.

So what's the point then?

His first pick was pitcher Brett DeVall, who they later released?

edabbs44
06-07-2011, 12:09 PM
So what's the point then?

His first pick was pitcher Brett DeVall, who they later released?

No point...just adding color to the discussion.

JaxRed
06-07-2011, 12:59 PM
I don't want to put words in Peter Gammons' mouth, but after we drafted Stephenson, he came right out and said that he's a huge upside arm who he PERSONALLY knew was prized by a team with a "mid-1st-round pick," and who only would have passed on Stephenson because they decided they could only pay slot. He liked our pick; now, I think I do, too, after getting over the upset at not taking Norris.

The Dodgers had a mid-1st-round pick. In fact, it was the 16th pick exactly. The one Law thought would be used on Stephenson, mayhap?

Gammons further said that while Stephenson would require slightly over slot, signability would not be an issue for a team with just a few bucks to spare in their draft budget. Which is not the Dodgers. *ahem*

This is a case where I think 2 + 2 might = 4. You could even work the Reds' lateness (the 5:00 clock had expired at least 150 seconds before they finally picked) on submitting their pick into your conspiracy theory. Hey: a guy they didn't expect to be on the board was still there, and so they went into panic/rapid-research mode before finally taking Stephenson and not letting him drop to that 28th pick that Law foresaw. Makes perfect sense.


Rick


Rick, I like your analysis but will put my own spin on the lateness.

The Reds were being named as a possible for him all along, so I think they knew what they were getting.

I suspect it might have to do more with calling the agent to see if they thought they were going to be able to get him signed. ie.... was what they agent going to ask so far out of reach, that the Reds knew it was going to be trouble. If they are being reasonable, the Reds take the chance.

texasdave
06-07-2011, 01:53 PM
# 27 picks through the years. If history tells us anything about the #27 pick it is that we shouldn't expect too much. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=27&draft_type=&

Notable #27 picks:
Vida Blue
Pete Harnisch
Todd Jones
Tom Underwood

Still you never know. That's why you go ahead and make the pick.

IslandRed
06-07-2011, 02:22 PM
The Braves also have selected six pitchers in the first round since 2003, and have gotten a grand total of 35 major league innings of a 6.06 ERA out of them. While there is certainly still time for them to develop (and Minor has looked solid in the minors), I wouldn't use them as the beacon for success in drafting pitching in the first round.


And I think they showed that their current sdcouting director has only been in place for 3 years now.


So what's the point then?

His first pick was pitcher Brett DeVall, who they later released?

Actually, DeMacio has only been there for last year's draft and this one.

But the Braves have unquestionably changed philosophy in the last few years. The Braves used to draft almost exclusively high-schoolers, pitchers included. Minor (2009) and Gilmartin are college guys.

Caveat Emperor
06-07-2011, 03:38 PM
Man, I remember when these threads used to be 1,000+ pages...

dougdirt
06-07-2011, 04:06 PM
Man, I remember when these threads used to be 1,000+ pages...

Is that when Day 1 has more than 50 picks?