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camisadelgolf
06-06-2011, 01:53 PM
If you break it down, the Reds are getting below-average production in four out of the five rotation slots.

Name W L W-L% ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO BF WHIP SO/BB
1. Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, & Chad Reineke 5 4 0.556 3.55 12 76.0 59 30 25 8 22 1 47 305 1.066 2.14
2. Mike Leake & Sam LeCure 4 2 0.667 4.97 12 67.0 67 38 37 10 19 0 55 280 1.284 2.89
3. Bronson Arroyo 4 5 0.444 5.37 12 68.2 85 44 41 14 17 2 44 306 1.485 2.59
4. Travis Wood 4 4 0.500 5.72 13 72.1 82 46 46 10 25 3 53 317 1.479 2.12
5. Edinson Volquez & Matt Maloney 3 3 0.500 6.62 11 53.0 55 41 39 9 39 1 54 250 1.774 1.38
20 18 0.526 5.02 60 337.0 348 199 188 51 122 7 253 1458 1.395 2.07

The rotation has been, quite frankly, pathetic. If they don't turn it around, the Reds don't stand a chance.

camisadelgolf
06-06-2011, 02:23 PM
I'll just throw some names out there. Granted, none of them are exciting by any means, but it would be difficult to imagine them not being upgrades over what Volquez has done so far.
Jeremy Guthrie - Baltimore has a while before they'll be competitive, and they may be looking to get as many prospects as possible at the deadline. Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Brian Roberts, and Luke Scott simply aren't long term solutions, so I could see them looking for some of the Reds' AAA depth in return for Guthrie, who will enter his last year of arbitration next year.
Aaron Harang - I know, I know. But think about it. He supposedly had a mechanical flaw that was corrected. I can't imagine it would take a whole bunch to get him.
Livan Hernandez - Don't ask me how, but he somehow just gets it done. He doesn't have the sexiest numbers, but the Reds have room for him in the budget, and it wouldn't take much in the way of prospects to get him either.
Jason Marquis - The free-agent-to-be is actually pitching respectably. I have no idea whether it's sustainable or not, but if it is, I'm sure the Nats would love to dump him for whatever they can get this year.
Kevin Slowey - He's young, fairly cheap, has excellent control, and has a history of moderate success. There are rumors that he has been shopped around quite a bit, and everyone knows the Twins have almost no chance of competing this year. It would be pretty easy for the Reds to come up with a package of prospects to obtain him.

buckeyenut
06-08-2011, 06:58 AM
I'd love to put together a good package for Guthrie and Markakis and get a deal done with Baltimore.

oneupper
06-08-2011, 08:21 AM
I put it on the other thread. How about Matt Garza? His 2011 contract is for only $6 million. He's a free agent after the year so the cubs might lose him anyway. He doesn't give up many HRs, so he'd fit well in GABP.

camisadelgolf
06-08-2011, 10:23 AM
I'd love to put together a good package for Guthrie and Markakis and get a deal done with Baltimore.
If the Orioles include Markakis in the deal, then the Reds will likely need to include Jay Bruce. He's off to a slow start, but Baltimore loves him, which is why he was signed to a longterm contract.

Reds1
06-08-2011, 10:45 AM
It's interesting. It's not even that the Reds need an Ace. If they can get a pitcher with a mid 3 ERA with this offense the team would be ready to go to the playoffs. The problem is the REds need a true Ace back to the Jose Rijo days.

Any 5 of the following I thought would be a decent rotation Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Edinson Volquez, Arroyo, and Travis Wood, but the problem is health. I don't think Arroyo has been right all year and Homer always seems to have something wrong and Volquez needs to have his head right.

But a true Ace with this staff would put the Reds over the top. Yes, it would be great to have Reyes, but the ace pitcher is truly IMO what this team needs.

A Healthy Sam LeCure in the BP with a good chapman with the rest of the pen and we'd be right at the top. The defense and overall offense is solid.

We have the pieces to trade. It will be an interesting trade season. Imagine a Felix in the rotation. Wow!

RedsManRick
06-08-2011, 01:05 PM
We should be careful not to compare what an option from outside of the organization could do for us in the future against what our current guys have done in the past. The proper comparison is against what we honestly think we can expect from our current guys moving forward.

It's very easy to fall in to a grass-is-greener mentality and chase after "improvements" that are really just different, not better.

kaldaniels
06-08-2011, 03:44 PM
Along the lines of what Rick says, I don't think this season will swing on whether or not we acquire better starting pitchers. It will swing on whether or not our guys "come around".

edabbs44
06-08-2011, 03:48 PM
If the Orioles include Markakis in the deal, then the Reds will likely need to include Jay Bruce. He's off to a slow start, but Baltimore loves him, which is why he was signed to a longterm contract.

Markakis blows right now and has been trending downward for a few years, his value is nowhere near Bruce's.

Big Klu
06-08-2011, 03:52 PM
We should be careful not to compare what an option from outside of the organization could do for us in the future against what our current guys have done in the past. The proper comparison is against what we honestly think we can expect from our current guys moving forward.

It's very easy to fall in to a grass-is-greener mentality and chase after "improvements" that are really just different, not better.

Exhibit A: The heavy panting that several RedsZone members had for Chin-lung Hu. Turns out the Reds already had the guy, except he was a Texan named Paul Janish. (In fact, Janish is actually better than Hu.)

RedsManRick
06-08-2011, 04:16 PM
And just to be clear, I would not have a problem with acquiring a guy who truly is a step up. But guys such as those cdg mentioned don't fit the bill.

Will M
06-10-2011, 05:55 PM
After Johnny Cueto's nice game last night I read a couple of posts stating how we may have found our ace. IMO Johnny Cueto is not an 'ace' & never will be. A look behind his numbers shows a K/9 rate of ~6. hmmm. that doesn't sound like an ace to me. his sparkling ERA hides a BABIP of .230, an LOB% of 80 & an xFIP of 3.62. To me he is a nice MOR starter. the Reds need him. however, if the team wants to be serious contenders they need TWO pitchers BETTER than Johnny Cueto. Homer might be one if he can stay healthy. I have my doubts. Who doesn't at this point. I don't think Arroyo nor Volquez will ever be better than a MOR arm. Wood & Leake MIGHT someday be better than Cueto is right now but honestly I'd be happy if they just turned into the 2010/2011 version of Johnny. Chapman? He looks a long long way away for being the TOR we have all dreamed of.

Lets look at the Brewers rotation for a minute. They have Greinke & Marcum
at the top, then Gallardo, then a couple of BOR arms. Just imagine if the Reds rotation was...
1) Greinke
2) Marcum
3) Cueto
4) Arroyo
5) Wood or Leake

or imagine...
1) Linecum
2) Cain
3) Cueto
4) Arroyo
5) Wood or Leake

basically a playoff caliber rotation (IMO) needs arms better than what the Reds have. These are the kinds of rotations I think the Reds need to be serious contenders. I am annoyed that so many starters have been dealt since mid 2010 & the Reds didn't get any of them. But those ships have sailed. If the team could get one TOR arm & get a healthy Homer then the immediate future would look a lot brigher. Otherwise even if we slip into the postseason ala 2010 its likely another playoff bludgeoning.