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Benihana
06-07-2011, 09:06 AM
Please use this thread to post scouting reports and thoughts on the 2011 Reds first round draft pick.

edabbs44
06-07-2011, 09:12 AM
In its 26th year of honoring the nation’s best high school athletes, The Gatorade Company, in collaboration with ESPN RISE, today announced Robert Stephenson of Alhambra High School as its 2010-11 Gatorade California Baseball Player of the Year. Stephenson is the first Gatorade California Baseball Player of the Year to be chosen from Alhambra High School.




Stephenson has maintained a 4.12 GPA in the classroom. He has volunteered locally as a youth baseball coach and on behalf of his school’s peer leadership program. “As much as I would not want to face Robert Stephenson, I love watching him play the game,” said Shawn McHugh, head coach of rival Dublin High. “If you take away his gifts, he would still be a player I would love to watch. He plays with passion and heart and is capable of putting the game on his back and taking it over. That’s not an easy task in high school.”



http://www.martinezgazette.com/news/story/i2689/2011/06/02/stephenson-honored-among-nations-best

edabbs44
06-07-2011, 09:13 AM
“To pick the kid in the first round we obviously like him a lot,” Buckley said. “He has very good upside. He has good projection to his frame. He throws hard now. He should throw harder when he gets bigger and stronger. We’re real excited.”


http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110606/SPT04/306060071/Reds-draft-high-school-pitcher-Robert-Stephenson?odyssey=tab%7Cmostpopular%7Ctext%7CSPT

OesterPoster
06-07-2011, 09:19 AM
Not an expert on the matter, but his delivery looks pretty simple to me.

YouTube - ‪Robert Stephenson (RHP) - Martinez (Calif.) Alahmbra HS‬‏ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCGQUogc28A)

edabbs44
06-07-2011, 09:37 AM
Robert Stephenson FRS (16 October 1803 – 12 October 1859) was an English civil engineer. He was the only son of George Stephenson, the famed locomotive builder and railway engineer; many of the achievements popularly credited to his father were actually the joint efforts of father and son.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Stephenson

OnBaseMachine
06-07-2011, 09:42 AM
For some reason he reminds me of a little of Homer Bailey. I think it's the way he holds his glove and the high leg kick.

lollipopcurve
06-07-2011, 10:15 AM
Nice repeatable athletic delivery. High ceiling arm, for sure. I like the fact this is a smart kid who supposedly has positive intangibles, too.

edabbs44
06-07-2011, 10:19 AM
For some reason he reminds me of a little of Homer Bailey. I think it's the way he holds his glove and the high leg kick.


Like Bailey, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound Stephenson has the power arm going for him. Besides the fastball, he can throw a slider, curveball and changeup.

"He might have an arm similar to Homer's, but not as polished," Buckley said. "Homer went way up at the top of the first round, and Robert is down towards the bottom."



http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110606&content_id=20105810&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

redsmetz
06-07-2011, 12:06 PM
Here's the article from the San Jose Mercury News

http://www.mercurynews.com/sports/ci_18220109?nclick_check=1

DocRed
06-07-2011, 12:56 PM
One of the Reds brass was on TV after the game last night and also compared him to Homer Bailey as far as stuff but just not as polished.

HokieRed
06-07-2011, 12:59 PM
For some reason he reminds me of a little of Homer Bailey. I think it's the way he holds his glove and the high leg kick.

This immediately occurred to me too. I think his delivery's very similar, which gives me a little pause--even though I probably like Homer at least as much as anybody on RZ.

Redsfan320
06-07-2011, 01:59 PM
How quickly do we expect this guy to be up?

320

dougdirt
06-07-2011, 02:01 PM
How quickly do we expect this guy to be up?

320

5 years.

Homer Bailey
06-07-2011, 03:07 PM
This immediately occurred to me too. I think his delivery's very similar, which gives me a little pause--even though I probably like Homer at least as much as anybody on RZ.

Careful.

traderumor
06-07-2011, 03:13 PM
I'm not sure on the comparisons to Homer's delivery. He is a lot quicker through his windup. The only comp I see is HS RH power pitcher.

HokieRed
06-07-2011, 03:17 PM
I'm not sure on the comparisons to Homer's delivery. He is a lot quicker through his windup. The only comp I see is HS RH power pitcher.

My sense is that Homer was quicker at this stage too, but I may be misremembering.

Caveat Emperor
06-07-2011, 03:18 PM
All I want to know is whether or not his middle name is "Louis."

edabbs44
06-07-2011, 03:20 PM
I'm not sure on the comparisons to Homer's delivery. He is a lot quicker through his windup. The only comp I see is HS RH power pitcher.

The thing I noticed was the hands together low and then bringing them above his head in the windup.

Homer Bailey
06-07-2011, 03:23 PM
I see Peavy's delivery.

kfm
06-07-2011, 04:58 PM
For some reason he reminds me of a little of Homer Bailey. I think it's the way he holds his glove and the high leg kick.

Thought the exact same thing when I saw him. If he twisted his body a little more before he came to the plate, he would look even more like Homer.

Redsfan320
06-07-2011, 05:36 PM
FTR, they didn't expand on the idea, but MLBN had his "MLB Player Comparison" listed as Matt Garza. :dunno:

320

RBA
06-07-2011, 06:00 PM
How quickly do we expect this guy to be up?

320

By September of couse. :D

Pony Boy
06-08-2011, 11:22 AM
One thing he apparently has over Homer is makeup. Homer's development was probably delayed by his lack of coachability, although he also might not have been getting great coaching. Stephenson is apparently a smart kid and an incredibly hard worker. I also think the Reds' system is better equipped to coach him up than the system that Homer came into.

redsmetz
06-08-2011, 11:43 AM
Apparently the Braves really coveted Stephenson and were set to take him with their pick just after our's.

http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2011/06/07/braves-say-college-heavy-draft-not-a-philosophy-shift/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_braves_blog


“The really good high school guys are gone, that we wanted,” DeMacio said. “We were on Stephenson right in front of us. We were really on him, and we thought we had him.”

He was referring to Robert Stephenson of Martinez Calif., the smooth throwing right-hander with the mid-90s fastball out of Alhambra High School. The Braves were primed to pick him in the first round, but the Reds nabbed him with the 27th pick, just before the Braves were announced as the next team on the clock.

lollipopcurve
06-08-2011, 11:48 AM
“The really good high school guys are gone, that we wanted,” DeMacio said. “We were on Stephenson right in front of us. We were really on him, and we thought we had him.”

He was referring to Robert Stephenson of Martinez Calif., the smooth throwing right-hander with the mid-90s fastball out of Alhambra High School. The Braves were primed to pick him in the first round, but the Reds nabbed him with the 27th pick, just before the Braves were announced as the next team on the clock.

Payback for Heyward.

Doc. Scott
06-08-2011, 12:24 PM
Kevin Goldstein had Stephenson picked to go 16th overall in his official mock draft. The Braves knew that he was a bargain with the lower picks, just like the Reds did.

edabbs44
06-08-2011, 01:32 PM
Kevin Goldstein had Stephenson picked to go 16th overall in his official mock draft. The Braves knew that he was a bargain with the lower picks, just like the Reds did.

It sounds like a lot of people thought he was headed to LA, due to him being a California guy and a potential easy, slot sign.

Benihana
06-08-2011, 04:18 PM
It sounds like a lot of people thought he was headed to LA, due to him being a California guy and a potential easy, slot sign.

This was unclear to me Monday night. On the one hand he has been called very signable (for slot), but on the other Gammons spoke about the Dodgers passing on him due to signability reasons. Which is it?

edabbs44
06-08-2011, 04:25 PM
Oh dear Lord


Stephenson, a right-handed pitcher out of Martinez (Calif.) Alhambra High, has spent the past two years working with Thigpen at Gamespeed, a training center in Dublin, Calif. For three days a week during the offseason, Stephenson worked on building strength, balance, range of motion and durability.


Thigpen, who also trained 2002 Reds first-round pick Chris Gruler, said Stephenson's level of focus was uncanny for a high school player. Each week during the season, the two would meet and Stephenson recalled minute details about his latest start: how many pitches he had thrown, how his torque was, what parts of his body felt tight.



http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110608&content_id=20194072&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

dougdirt
06-08-2011, 04:37 PM
Oh dear Lord



http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110608&content_id=20194072&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

Calm down. I am sure that EVERY pitching coach has worked with multiple guys who has blown elbows and shoulders. It is the nature of the beast.

edabbs44
06-08-2011, 04:38 PM
Calm down. I am sure that EVERY pitching coach has worked with multiple guys who has blown elbows and shoulders. It is the nature of the beast.

I was kidding. Though he doesn't sound to be a pitching coach, more a strength and conditioning guy.

klw
06-08-2011, 05:06 PM
Calm down. I am sure that EVERY pitching coach has worked with multiple guys who has blown elbows and shoulders. It is the nature of the beast.

Just don't let Bench make any comparisons to Seaver and things should be okay.

Benihana
06-09-2011, 04:49 PM
From BA Chat today:


Ben (Miamisburg, OH): What is the ceiling for Reds 1st Pick Robert Stephenson?

Jim Callis: Frontline starter. 93-95 fastball, good curveball, good command.


:thumbup:

Blitz Dorsey
06-10-2011, 05:26 PM
Apparently the Braves really coveted Stephenson and were set to take him with their pick just after our's.

http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2011/06/07/braves-say-college-heavy-draft-not-a-philosophy-shift/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_braves_blog

I've liked this pick from the moment it was announced. This just makes me like it even more. Picking 27th, you don't go in with very high expectations. I think the Reds "maxed out" on their pick so to speak. Reading about this kid, you would think he had the resume of a top 15 overall pick, no worse than top 20. And we got him 27th. Not too shabby. Will be interesting to follow his development.

Benihana
06-10-2011, 05:42 PM
I've liked this pick from the moment it was announced. This just makes me like it even more. Picking 27th, you don't go in with very high expectations. I think the Reds "maxed out" on their pick so to speak. Reading about this kid, you would think he had the resume of a top 15 overall pick, no worse than top 20. And we got him 27th. Not too shabby. Will be interesting to follow his development.

Completely agree.

gedred69
06-10-2011, 10:27 PM
Has he got what it takes to pitch at Billings or does he go to AZL? Being a HS pitcher I'm thinking AZL....

redsmetz
06-10-2011, 10:39 PM
Has he got what it takes to pitch at Billings or does he go to AZL? Being a HS pitcher I'm thinking AZL....

Homer started in the Gulf Coast League, so I suspect you're right. It's so hard to believe he's in his 8th professional season (5th at the big league level).

Blitz Dorsey
06-12-2011, 12:16 AM
These days ... he probably won't even sign in time to play anywhere this season. Or if he does, it will be a start or two at best. And yes, I'm sure it would be for the AZL Reds.

Next year, I fully expect him to start the year with Dayton.

MikeS21
06-12-2011, 11:05 AM
“The really good high school guys are gone, that we wanted,” DeMacio said. “We were on Stephenson right in front of us. We were really on him, and we thought we had him.”

He was referring to Robert Stephenson of Martinez Calif., the smooth throwing right-hander with the mid-90s fastball out of Alhambra High School. The Braves were primed to pick him in the first round, but the Reds nabbed him with the 27th pick, just before the Braves were announced as the next team on the clock.
Typical Braves pick: a tall righthanded high school pitcher with amid-90's fastball and decent secondary stuff.

OnBaseMachine
06-12-2011, 12:59 PM
John Sickels on Stephenson and the Reds draft.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/6/12/2219256/2011-mlb-draft-cincinnati-reds-review

AmarilloRed
06-13-2011, 11:13 PM
Anyone have any idea how fast Stephenson's slider is? Someone uploaded a version of Robert Stephenson to the Player Vault in MLB 11, but they didn't give him a slider.

camisadelgolf
06-15-2011, 10:59 AM
I was looking at first rounders from 1994 to 2003, and here are some I gathered:
37.1% never reach the majors
23.3% provide negative WAR

That means 60.4% of first round draft picks hurt their teams. Wow. Of the first round picks who do provide any semblance of production, only about a fourth of them make even a remotely-significant impact. In other words, only 15.7% of first round picks from '94-'03 provide more than 10.0 WAR throughout their careers.

What are everyone's expectations for Stephenson? I'm not asking about what you're hoping for--obviously, all Reds fans are hoping for a shelf full of Cy Young Awards--but what do you think is a fair expectation for a high school pitcher drafted late in the first round? The odds say that he won't amount to much. Would anyone else be thrilled with Mark Prior, Brett Myers, Mark Mulder, or Jason Jennings numbers?

Benihana
06-15-2011, 11:28 AM
I was looking at first rounders from 1994 to 2003, and here are some I gathered:
37.1% never reach the majors
23.3% provide negative WAR

That means 60.4% of first round draft picks hurt their teams. Wow. Of the first round picks who do provide any semblance of production, only about a fourth of them make even a remotely-significant impact. In other words, only 15.7% of first round picks from '94-'03 provide more than 10.0 WAR throughout their careers.

What are everyone's expectations for Stephenson? I'm not asking about what you're hoping for--obviously, all Reds fans are hoping for a shelf full of Cy Young Awards--but what do you think is a fair expectation for a high school pitcher drafted late in the first round? The odds say that he won't amount to much. Would anyone else be thrilled with Mark Prior, Brett Myers, Mark Mulder, or Jason Jennings numbers?


Which makes it all the more amazing that once Mesoraco is called up at some point this season, the Reds will have had 7 straight first rounders make the majors, 6 of whom will (hopefully) make a strong positive contribution. (Knocking on wood) I'd also be quite surprised if Grandal doesn't continue the streak, even if it's for a team other than the Reds. Let's hope Stephenson will one day eventually make it 9 straight first rounders to make the big club.

As far as your question goes, I think if you look at other high-upside HS RHP that were drafted in the later part of the first round, you're looking at names like Phil Hughes, Matt Garza (Stephenson's closest comp), Clay Buchholz, and Rick Porcello (you could also probably add Kyle Drabek, and perhaps eventually Zach Lee to this group). Stephenson is not as highly rated as Porcello (who slipped to #27 -ironically- for signability reasons) coming out of HS, but I think the other three are pretty fair comps for what to expect/hope for out of him.

Of course the downside would be guys like Michael Main and Tim Alderson, who still have time to develop into something useful. Ironically, the one guy who fits into this category that did not sign was Gerrit Cole (taken #28) in 2008. Remarkably, the washout rate for high-upside HS RHP drafted in the later part of the first round is not as high as you would think if you look at the past 6-7 years, which is one of the many reasons I am a big fan of this type of pick.

Benihana
06-15-2011, 04:55 PM
Going back 2 more years (2002 and 2003) there were two other HS RHP drafted in the 20s:
Matt Cain and today's Reds opponent and Ohio product Chad Billingsley.

2 more years, and the hit rate is 2-for-3: Adam Wainwright, Jeremy Bonderman, and Macay McBride.

Amazingly, the hit rate for HS RHP drafted in the late first round (#21-30) over the last ten years is over 75%!! If that's any indication of things to come, I'd say Robert Stephenson is in pretty good company.

redsmetz
06-16-2011, 03:24 PM
I went looking for something about the team contacting him while they were on the West Coast. I found this blurb at MLB.com's Notebook which I'm going to quote since it's just a segment and there was no link to just this part. Glad to see they had him in as their guest in San Francisco.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110612&content_id=20416550&notebook_id=20416842&vkey=notebook_cin&c_id=cin


SAN FRANCISCO -- Robert Stephenson is no stranger to AT&T Park, having grown up in nearby Martinez, Calif. But when he stepped onto the field Sunday afternoon, Stephenson was no longer just a Giants fan -- he was a guest of the Reds.

Stephenson, picked 27th in the first round of the 2011 First-Year Player Draft, was invited by the club to come out to the park and meet some of Cincinnati's players before Sunday's game. Stephenson said he got to talk to Jay Bruce, Scott Rolen, Joey Votto, Edgar Renteria, Bronson Arroyo and a number of other Reds.

"I thought it was actually kind of convenient that they were out here this weekend, so it was pretty cool," said Stephenson, who attends nearby Alhambra High School. "But I don't think I'll have a problem being able to root for them."

The 18-year-old right-handed pitcher has still not signed with the club, and he has yet to decide whether he'll do so or honor his commitment to play for the University of Washington. That's the next step for him, he said, as he continues to work out during the offseason. Stephenson went 7-2 with a 1.33 ERA in 13 regular-season appearances during his senior year and was named the San Jose Mercury News' Gatorade California Baseball Player of the Year.

Stephenson's high-powered fastball -- he has touched 98 mph on the radar gun -- helped him begin his senior season with back-to-back no-hitters, and Baseball America ranked him as the 25th-best prospect in this year's Draft. Giants special assistant John Barr said after the Draft the club was hoping to have a chance at drafting the local prospect, but the Reds took him two picks before the Giants were on the clock.

Stephenson said he is impressed with what he has seen out of the Reds, particularly in their 10-2 win over Tim Lincecum and the Giants on Saturday. And his initial impression of the Reds was on the mark.

"They can hit," he said, smiling.

Benihana
06-16-2011, 03:33 PM
Interesting that both the Braves and now Giants have come out and said they would've taken Stephenson in the two picks immediately after the Reds.

izzy's dad
06-16-2011, 04:47 PM
Interesting that both the Braves and now Giants have come out and said they would've taken Stephenson in the two picks immediately after the Reds.

Teams that have a good track record for drafting quality pitching. Sounds like we need to get this guy signed.

powersackers
02-18-2012, 04:35 AM
Fun Video featuring Robert.

http://espn.go.com/high-school/baseball/video/clip?id=6593296

If he's at Dayton this year I'll be at his first start and I'll give you all a full report.

Vottomatic
03-01-2012, 06:15 PM
Interesting that both the Braves and now Giants have come out and said they would've taken Stephenson in the two picks immediately after the Reds.

That's a good indication when two teams who know starting pitching say that. Good stuff.

DannyB
03-04-2012, 07:37 PM
Hal thinks Robert is going to be in Dayton this year
http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2012/03/04/stubbs_spent_the_winter_cleari.html?cxtype=feedbot


IT APPEARS THAT the Reds No. 1 draft pick last June, right-handed pitcher Robert Stephenson, will skip rookie ball and play at Class A Dayton this year.

Blitz Dorsey
03-05-2012, 01:12 AM
Hal thinks Robert is going to be in Dayton this year
http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2012/03/04/stubbs_spent_the_winter_cleari.html?cxtype=feedbot

Nice, exactly what I was hoping for.

fearofpopvol1
03-05-2012, 02:28 AM
I'm not sure I like that move personally. He's got a ways to go.

dougdirt
03-05-2012, 03:04 AM
I'm not sure I like that move personally. He's got a ways to go.

I have been of the "feeling" that he would start in Dayton, but it wouldn't be in April, but more likely mid May. I haven't heard a lot, but what I have heard isn't leading me to believe he will be in Dayton when their season begins.

RED VAN HOT
03-05-2012, 03:36 PM
He pitched 64 innings in HS last year. He just turned 19. How many innings should he be permitted to pitch this year? Holding him back in extended ST until late May makes sense to me.

dougdirt
03-05-2012, 03:57 PM
He pitched 64 innings in HS last year. He just turned 19. How many innings should he be permitted to pitch this year? Holding him back in extended ST until late May makes sense to me.

I would imagine that they try to keep him in the 100-125 range. That seems to be where they have kept guys at with the same type of background. When he actually starts pitching would obviously put that number in a fluctuating state.

medford
03-05-2012, 05:38 PM
Would they count time spent throwing in instructional league? I was thinking, if they held him back in instructional league until the weather warmed up, he could debut in Dayton in early may and pick up abput 100-120 innings if everything went well. Is that reasonable for starting that late in the season?

dougdirt
03-05-2012, 05:40 PM
Would they count time spent throwing in instructional league? I was thinking, if they held him back in instructional league until the weather warmed up, he could debut in Dayton in early may and pick up abput 100-120 innings if everything went well. Is that reasonable for starting that late in the season?

I imagine that what he throws in extended spring training would be counted towards their "goal" for him.

TOBTTReds
03-12-2012, 10:36 AM
I imagine that what he throws in extended spring training would be counted towards their "goal" for him.

Yes, it definitely would count. I'd be shocked if he wasn't held back in extended. Then like you guys are saying, a mid-May arrival to Dayton if all goes well in Ext. Spring.

Nathan
03-17-2012, 01:15 AM
http://ramsey.mlblogs.com/2012/03/16/robert-stephenson-interview/

I'm sure most on here's seen this, but, I wonder if the comment he made a little over two minutes into the interview sheds some light on why he turned out to be a tough, last minute sign?

RedsManRick
03-17-2012, 01:29 AM
He seems like a really smart, down-to-earth guy. Will be fun to root for him.

lollipopcurve
03-17-2012, 08:45 AM
Stephenson seems like a bright kid, no nonsense. I think the Reds may have a good one here, so long as he stays healthy.

batsfan
03-17-2012, 02:31 PM
This most likely means nothing, but he was getting hit hard when I saw him pitch in a minor league intersquad game last week.

TOBTTReds
03-18-2012, 03:43 PM
This most likely means nothing, but he was getting hit hard when I saw him pitch in a minor league intersquad game last week.

You're right, it means nothing. But good to know in general since we are craving anything we can hear about him.

Tommyjohn25
04-18-2012, 10:57 AM
Dumb question. Where did he end up to start the season?

dougdirt
04-18-2012, 11:06 AM
Dumb question. Where did he end up to start the season?

Extended spring training.

Tommyjohn25
04-18-2012, 11:38 AM
Thanks Doug!

Blitz Dorsey
04-20-2012, 01:35 AM
I would love to see him pitching for Dayton right now. Oh well. Have to wait for Billings I suppose.

crazybob60
04-29-2012, 01:47 AM
Are there any rumblings at all where he might go after extended ST? I saw over a month ago talk was of mid-May or so being in Dayton, but has anything else been said?

Blitz Dorsey
04-29-2012, 02:55 PM
Are there any rumblings at all where he might go after extended ST? I saw over a month ago talk was of mid-May or so being in Dayton, but has anything else been said?

I bet he'll start off at Billings when they get crackin' in late June. Then if he does well, he'll get a late-season call-up to Dayton. Then next season he'll start at Dayton. Can't wait to see him pitch.

Tom Servo
05-02-2012, 01:54 AM
Robert Stephenson Cincinnati Reds 1st Round Pick-2011 - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zdGHFL6C-M)

Sorry if this has been posted in another thread, but I really like this kid (God, I'm 22. Why am I talking like this).

camisadelgolf
05-02-2012, 03:00 PM
Sorry if this has been posted in another thread, but I really like this kid (God, I'm 22. Why am I talking like this).
You're a good kid. Don't worry about it.

Vottomatic
06-10-2012, 11:05 AM
Geez. When are we going to see this kid pitching in our minors?

TOBTTReds
06-10-2012, 11:43 AM
Geez. When are we going to see this kid pitching in our minors?

Probably June 18 Missoula Osprey at Billings Mustangs

Blitz Dorsey
06-10-2012, 12:17 PM
Jamie Ramsey posted something on Twitter that Stephenson will start this season at Billings and it's a surprise because he was slated to begin with the AZL Reds.

Uh, no he wasn't. He was always "slated" for Billings. It's amazing how some of these guys can cover the team and have no idea what they're talking about. (See, it's not just Fay who is bad. Sheldon leaves a lot to be desired too.)

TOBTTReds
06-10-2012, 01:15 PM
Jamie Ramsey posted something on Twitter that Stephenson will start this season at Billings and it's a surprise because he was slated to begin with the AZL Reds.

Uh, no he wasn't. He was always "slated" for Billings. It's amazing how some of these guys can cover the team and have no idea what they're talking about. (See, it's not just Fay who is bad. Sheldon leaves a lot to be desired too.)

Yeah, I don't know if anyone really thought he was going to AZL. High School picks from the year prior rarely stay back in AZL/GCL unless he really isn't ready.

camisadelgolf
06-10-2012, 01:34 PM
Yeah, I don't know if anyone really thought he was going to AZL. High School picks from the year prior rarely stay back in AZL/GCL unless he really isn't ready.
I don't know that I'd say it's rare, but it's certainly rare for the earlier high school draft picks to not go to Billings or Dayton following their first season in the organization.

johngalt
06-10-2012, 06:34 PM
Jamie Ramsey posted something on Twitter that Stephenson will start this season at Billings and it's a surprise because he was slated to begin with the AZL Reds.

Uh, no he wasn't. He was always "slated" for Billings. It's amazing how some of these guys can cover the team and have no idea what they're talking about. (See, it's not just Fay who is bad. Sheldon leaves a lot to be desired too.)

You do realize that Jamie Ramsey doesn't cover the team....he's actually WITH the team.

Blitz Dorsey
06-11-2012, 12:24 AM
You do realize that Jamie Ramsey doesn't cover the team....he's actually WITH the team.

Well, that makes it even worse that he thought Stephenson -- a first-round pick last year -- was going to start the season with the AZL Reds. It was always Billings for Stephenson.

TOBTTReds
06-11-2012, 12:57 AM
Well, that makes it even worse that he thought Stephenson -- a first-round pick last year -- was going to start the season with the AZL Reds. It was always Billings for Stephenson.

First, it wasn't always Billings. Unless you work for the team, you don't know. Second, Jamie's position has nothing to do with the baseball side, so his speculation of where a 19 yo kid goes to start his pro ball means very little. Though he should probably refrain from aome of his "expectations" on twitter if he is going to use that as a Reds information soirce.

dougdirt
06-11-2012, 07:19 AM
Does it really matter where he starts at?

The Royals took Bubba Starling #5 overall last year. He is also starting his career in rookie ball. He was the Royals #2 prospect coming into the year and was the #24 prospect in the entire game (BA) coming into the year.

It matters about where these guys end up, not where they start.

Blitz Dorsey
06-11-2012, 11:10 AM
Does it really matter where he starts at?

The Royals took Bubba Starling #5 overall last year. He is also starting his career in rookie ball. He was the Royals #2 prospect coming into the year and was the #24 prospect in the entire game (BA) coming into the year.

It matters about where these guys end up, not where they start.

Does it matter in the grand scheme? No. Does it matter for those of us that follow it for fun and want to see Stephenson challenged a bit? Yes.

bellhead
06-11-2012, 10:13 PM
It really doesn't matter, he'll be in Dayton next year and this is what matters.

mdccclxix
06-12-2012, 09:34 AM
He's a young kid with lots of time on his hands, you almost hope he's going to a few classes since he's not playing much baseball. Maybe he is, I don't know.

TOBTTReds
06-12-2012, 10:27 AM
He's a young kid with lots of time on his hands, you almost hope he's going to a few classes since he's not playing much baseball. Maybe he is, I don't know.

He's working out and throwing every day in extended spring training. They may get some afternoons off, but it's likely a 6 day per week job. They also have games he's been pitching in all spring against CLE and other teams in the area, they just aren't advertised at all.

lollipopcurve
06-12-2012, 11:09 AM
He's working out and throwing every day in extended spring training. They may get some afternoons off, but it's likely a 6 day per week job. They also have games he's been pitching in all spring against CLE and other teams in the area, they just aren't advertised at all.

Have you heard anything about how he's progressing?

johngalt
06-13-2012, 03:56 AM
Well, that makes it even worse that he thought Stephenson -- a first-round pick last year -- was going to start the season with the AZL Reds. It was always Billings for Stephenson.

But that's my point. He's not going to speculate on something like that without clearly qualifying it as a guess. Him saying it means someone in the organization told him that.

19braves77
06-13-2012, 04:17 AM
The success record for 1st round pitchers that amount to anything after being assigned to a SS team the season after being drafted is low. I think I got that from Kevin Goldstein chat but dont hold me to it. I think he could only find 2 in the last 10 years. Its rare and says a lot.

redsmetz
06-13-2012, 05:49 AM
The success record for 1st round pitchers that amount to anything after being assigned to a SS team the season after being drafted is low. I think I got that from Kevin Goldstein chat but dont hold me to it. I think he could only find 2 in the last 10 years. Its rare and says a lot.

I wonder if you need to factor in that this is the player's first actual season of playing. I wonder how many of those factored in signed so late and didn't play the year they were drafted. Perhaps the number is the same, but I do see a distinction.

dougdirt
06-13-2012, 08:02 AM
The success record for 1st round pitchers that amount to anything after being assigned to a SS team the season after being drafted is low. I think I got that from Kevin Goldstein chat but dont hold me to it. I think he could only find 2 in the last 10 years. Its rare and says a lot.

Well, lets assume it was only over the last 10 years, well, you are already really limiting yourself because anyone drafted in the most recent 6 years is, at best, only 24 years old right now (I am guessing that all of these players are high schoolers since college guys are clearly more advanced). So really, you need to toss out just about anyone from 5 years or less back. So now you are talking about what, a handful of players? I wouldn't put much stock into something like that.

If Stephenson comes out this year for Billings and walks a whole bunch of guys, then I will think that maybe they held him back because his control isn't what they thought. But if he holds his own (4.50 ERA or lower in that league is easily holding his own - with solid peripherals of course), I wouldn't worry much at all.

19braves77
06-13-2012, 07:57 PM
Well, lets assume it was only over the last 10 years, well, you are already really limiting yourself because anyone drafted in the most recent 6 years is, at best, only 24 years old right now (I am guessing that all of these players are high schoolers since college guys are clearly more advanced). So really, you need to toss out just about anyone from 5 years or less back. So now you are talking about what, a handful of players? I wouldn't put much stock into something like that.

If Stephenson comes out this year for Billings and walks a whole bunch of guys, then I will think that maybe they held him back because his control isn't what they thought. But if he holds his own (4.50 ERA or lower in that league is easily holding his own - with solid peripherals of course), I wouldn't worry much at all.

The point he was trying to make is that you don't do that with first round draft picks. The Cubs didn't even to that with Mark Pawelek who was considered an overdraft in 2005.

dougdirt
06-14-2012, 12:30 AM
The point he was trying to make is that you don't do that with first round draft picks. The Cubs didn't even to that with Mark Pawelek who was considered an overdraft in 2005.

Except it happens. The Royals drafted Bubba Starling #5 overall last year. BA ranked him #23 in all of baseball this offseason. He is starting in rookie ball this year too.

As for KG, he said earlier this week in a chat that he isn't concerned about the move to start Stephenson in rookie ball at all.