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Benihana
06-08-2011, 05:59 PM
http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2011/06/08/ludwick_could_be_available_to.html

RedLegSuperStar
06-08-2011, 06:01 PM
not for Chris Heisey

edabbs44
06-08-2011, 06:05 PM
I heard they are trading Heisey for Marmol after today's game.

Kc61
06-08-2011, 06:08 PM
I heard they are trading Heisey for Marmol after today's game.

Kidding or serious?

And Ludwick is a free agent after this year according to the column. Why on earth would the Reds trade Heisey for a rental?

Benihana
06-08-2011, 06:11 PM
Seeing that the Reds would be on the hook to pay him ~$4MM for the rest of this year, I would rather spend that money on Reyes, Kemp, Ethier or Billingsley. Would we be eligible to receive draft pick compensation if/when he signs elsewhere?

I'm also not all that sure that he'd be any better than Alonso/Frazier/Francisco/HEISEY in a full time role anyway.

Brutus
06-08-2011, 06:20 PM
Kidding or serious?

And Ludwick is a free agent after this year according to the column. Why on earth would the Reds trade Heisey for a rental?

There was a Bleacher Report rumor last year that had Heisey being traded for Marmol. I think he was bringing that up jokingly.

edabbs44
06-08-2011, 06:24 PM
There was a Bleacher Report rumor last year that had Heisey being traded for Marmol. I think he was bringing that up jokingly.

Good memory.

VR
06-08-2011, 06:30 PM
No with a capital NO.

OnBaseMachine
06-08-2011, 07:01 PM
He's an upgrade over Gomes/Lewis. I wouldn't trade Heisey for him though.

oneupper
06-08-2011, 07:16 PM
Ludwick has a .822 OPS this year away from Petco.

But we could always just play Heisey and expect maybe .780. (That's where he's at now).

IslandRed
06-08-2011, 07:20 PM
Just playing devil's advocate, here's the line of thinking where it does make sense:

Where's the right-handed middle-of-the-order power?

Heisey isn't a power hitter, Rolen's power has evaporated, Gomes has intermittent power but not enough to make up for his other shortcomings. Once Votto and Bruce hit, or don't because they're pitched around, the other team breathes a big sigh of relief. No one's making them pay from #5 on down, except for an occasional blast from Ramon Hernandez.

Alonso? Francisco? Maybe, but if they're just now getting comfy with Bruce following Votto, they're not going with three straight lefties. Frazier? Maybe. In the case of all three, asking them to be the hammer is a lot to ask for a rook in a pennant race.

An everyday righty-hitting left fielder with some power (and he does outside of Petco) makes sense.

Now, having said that, I'm not sure Ludwick is the right guy, especially if the money prevents us from doing other things, and I'd like to hold onto Heisey if possible -- even if he's not the regular LF he makes a heck of a fourth outfielder.

Benihana
06-08-2011, 07:25 PM
I'd rather package Heisey with Alonso and the minor league pitcher of their choice for Kemp or Ethier. If they add Billingsley and some cash, I'd add Grandal and possibly make the pitcher in the deal Leake.

Oxilon
06-08-2011, 07:34 PM
Ehhh, I'm lukewarm on the idea. But it would certainly help to go from Petco to GAB, that's for sure. Either way, he's not a top of the rotation pitcher, which is what the Reds need most if they ever want to win a championship.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-08-2011, 07:46 PM
I'd rather package Heisey with Alonso and the minor league pitcher of their choice for Kemp or Ethier. If they add Billingsley and some cash, I'd add Grandal and possibly make the pitcher in the deal Leake.

:notworthy:

OldXOhio
06-08-2011, 08:50 PM
Kidding or serious?

And Ludwick is a free agent after this year according to the column. Why on earth would the Reds trade Heisey for a rental?

Perhaps for the same reason(s) Heisey isn't the team's starting LF.

mth123
06-08-2011, 09:08 PM
Just playing devil's advocate, here's the line of thinking where it does make sense:

Where's the right-handed middle-of-the-order power?

Heisey isn't a power hitter, Rolen's power has evaporated, Gomes has intermittent power but not enough to make up for his other shortcomings. Once Votto and Bruce hit, or don't because they're pitched around, the other team breathes a big sigh of relief. No one's making them pay from #5 on down, except for an occasional blast from Ramon Hernandez.

Alonso? Francisco? Maybe, but if they're just now getting comfy with Bruce following Votto, they're not going with three straight lefties. Frazier? Maybe. In the case of all three, asking them to be the hammer is a lot to ask for a rook in a pennant race.

An everyday righty-hitting left fielder with some power (and he does outside of Petco) makes sense.

Now, having said that, I'm not sure Ludwick is the right guy, especially if the money prevents us from doing other things, and I'd like to hold onto Heisey if possible -- even if he's not the regular LF he makes a heck of a fourth outfielder.

Agree that Ludwick would fill the hole in the 5 spot, but if the Reds are taking on money, the return should be something minor. If Matt Maloney was healthy he'd make sense. Same with Jordan Smith. If the Reds deal Heisey, then the Pads need to pay the salary.

nate
06-08-2011, 10:01 PM
McCoy might want to bounce this idea off of Kirk and Spock.

:cool:

MikeThierry
06-08-2011, 11:12 PM
I certainly hope the Reds don't trade for Ludwick. With him getting in a lineup that actually has protection, back in the NL Central, and in a hitters park Ludwick would absolutely do well in a Reds uniform.

Griffey012
06-08-2011, 11:25 PM
I would be ok with it...anyone else think this board is much higher than the rest of baseball on Chris Heisey? You can't hang onto every decent potential prospect you have, sometimes you gotta trade for something that will fill a need.

Could Heisey fill the need? Possibly, but now is not the time for trial and error. We may regret trading Heisey for Ludwick, but there is no chance he becomes another Josh Hamilton, he may become a bit better than Cody Ross at his peak. Ross has been solid, but nothing to lose sleep over.

Is Heisey solid, yes. Something we cannot replace? Doubtful.

MikeThierry
06-08-2011, 11:31 PM
I would be ok with it...anyone else think this bored is much higher than the rest of baseball on Chris Heisey? You can't hang onto every decent potential prospect you have, sometime you gotta trade for something that could fill a need.

Could Heisey fill the need? Possibly, but now is not the time for trial and error. We may regret trading Heisey for Ludwick, but there is no chance he becomes another Josh Hamilton, he may become a bit better than Cody Ross at his peak. Ross has been solid, but nothing to lose sleep over.

Solid, yes. Something we cannot replace pretty easily? Doubtful.

Honestly, from an outsiders perspective, I have never understood the hype for Heisey. He has always looked like a serviceable bat in the majors yet the sense I get from Reds fans is that the is the next best thing. In my opinion, this is a case of fans over-hyping prospects from their organization. This phenomena happens in all organizations. The Reds are a couple moves away from being a dangerous playoff team. I don't understand the reluctance to giving up some prospects in a prospect rich farm system.

757690
06-08-2011, 11:37 PM
Ludwick should not be the Red's first choice, but he would be an improvement, and I have no problem trading Heisey for him if that is what it takes.

fearofpopvol1
06-09-2011, 01:17 AM
Agree that Ludwick would fill the hole in the 5 spot, but if the Reds are taking on money, the return should be something minor. If Matt Maloney was healthy he'd make sense. Same with Jordan Smith. If the Reds deal Heisey, then the Pads need to pay the salary.

Spot-On

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-09-2011, 01:21 AM
No more ex-cards please

Ron Madden
06-09-2011, 03:40 AM
No. Ludwick is 32 years old and expensive.

PuffyPig
06-09-2011, 08:13 AM
Ludwick could easily OPS .850 in GAB with great LF defense.

He's a perfect target for this team.

If the cost is Heisey, who's likely a 4-5 OF on this team going forward, that's a great deal for us.

We have lots of OF in the minors vying for a chance over the next few years. We need to make room for guys like Alonso, Frazier and Sappelt anyway.

There is little to dislike about this deal.

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 08:15 AM
Honestly, from an outsiders perspective, I have never understood the hype for Heisey. He has always looked like a serviceable bat in the majors yet the sense I get from Reds fans is that the is the next best thing. In my opinion, this is a case of fans over-hyping prospects from their organization. This phenomena happens in all organizations. The Reds are a couple moves away from being a dangerous playoff team. I don't understand the reluctance to giving up some prospects in a prospect rich farm system.

I don't get it much either. I like him as a member of the team, however he isn't an everyday LFer right now, IMO.

OldXOhio
06-09-2011, 08:55 AM
In my opinion, this is a case of fans over-hyping prospects from their organization.

Redszone overhyping its prospects...blasphemy!.

Mike, if you were around longer than just the past year, there'd be no doubt in your mind about the validity of your claim. It absolutely is the case..the Reds have "untouchables" littered all over their system.

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 09:02 AM
Here's another candidate:


The hottest commodity would be outfielder Josh Willingham, who will be a free agent after the season. Oakland has not had talks with Willingham or his agent about signing the team's top RBI man (by far) to a long-term deal.

Willingham is precisely the type of player who, in past years, has been moved in the middle of losing seasons. He already has been linked to the Phillies, a team that wanted him last year.



http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/06/08/SPE71JQT0P.DTL

bucksfan2
06-09-2011, 09:10 AM
Ludwick could easily OPS .850 in GAB with great LF defense.

He's a perfect target for this team.

If the cost is Heisey, who's likely a 4-5 OF on this team going forward, that's a great deal for us.

We have lots of OF in the minors vying for a chance over the next few years. We need to make room for guys like Alonso, Frazier and Sappelt anyway.

There is little to dislike about this deal.

I don't understand why Heisey is considered some kind of sacred cow in this organization. He has some defensive value but he isn't going to play the two premier defensive outfield positions. He is a 5th OF type that you see littered all over MLB. Trading him for a rental seems like a good deal to me. Especially when you could substitute guys like Alonso, Frazier, and Sappelt in his slot and not miss a beat.

I like having Heisey on my team I just am not going to bat an eye at losing him in an attempt to make the team better.

MikeThierry
06-09-2011, 09:12 AM
Redszone overhyping its prospects...blasphemy!.

Mike, if you were around longer than just the past year, there'd be no doubt in your mind about the validity of your claim. It absolutely is the case..the Reds have "untouchables" littered all over their system.

This whole thing reminds me of the stupidity whats going on now with the fandom in St. Louis where people want Jon Jay as the full time CF and there is this calling to trade Colby Rasmus.

Every fanbase seems to go insane when it comes to their prospects. If there is a player that is having a great month, trade or send down the other player now because obviously the player with success can play all 162 games without being exposed. If there is a move that could actually help the team, we can't do that because the players we would have to give up are "untouchable".

GM's coveting prospects is one of the reasons why teams fail and GM's get fired.

lollipopcurve
06-09-2011, 09:19 AM
Ludwick for Heisey makes sense for both teams. Money could be a complication, as always.

nate
06-09-2011, 09:43 AM
To me, the offense is fine. The Reds currently lead all of baseball in runs scored. Ludwick might be nice but I would try improving the starting pitching before renting offense.

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 09:59 AM
To me, the offense is fine. The Reds currently lead all of baseball in runs scored. Ludwick might be nice but I would try improving the starting pitching before renting offense.

I have a question for the "board":

I have seen a lot of justification of the Reds offense being "fine" due to their position in the league's runs scored standings. But has anyone noticed that they are 3rd in the division in OPS? Do we expect their offense to continue to score the most runs going forward, knowing what we know?

I'm not saying that the offense isn't good or anything, but don't we think that it could be improved?

OldXOhio
06-09-2011, 10:02 AM
This whole thing reminds me of the stupidity whats going on now with the fandom in St. Louis where people want Jon Jay as the full time CF and there is this calling to trade Colby Rasmus.

Every fanbase seems to go insane when it comes to their prospects. If there is a player that is having a great month, trade or send down the other player now because obviously the player with success can play all 162 games without being exposed. If there is a move that could actually help the team, we can't do that because the players we would have to give up are "untouchable".

GM's coveting prospects is one of the reasons why teams fail and GM's get fired.

I'd be in favor of the Cardinals dealing Rasmus.

dunner13
06-09-2011, 10:07 AM
I'm for any move that keeps gomes and lewis from spending anymore time in LF. I don't understand why they haven't given Heisey a shot to be the everyday LF but if you can deal him and get a solid powerhitter like ludwick then do it.

Griffey012
06-09-2011, 10:09 AM
Here's another candidate:



http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/06/08/SPE71JQT0P.DTL

I would gladly take Willingham as well.

OldXOhio
06-09-2011, 10:11 AM
To me, the offense is fine. The Reds currently lead all of baseball in runs scored. Ludwick might be nice but I would try improving the starting pitching before renting offense.

Just because it's not an immediate area of concern doesn't mean the brass shouldn't look to improve it at the right price. Of course the starting pitching ought to be the primary need, but one doesn't have to happen in place of the other.

Tony Cloninger
06-09-2011, 10:16 AM
I'd rather package Heisey with Alonso and the minor league pitcher of their choice for Kemp or Ethier. If they add Billingsley and some cash, I'd add Grandal and possibly make the pitcher in the deal Leake.

So would I but the Dodgers are not going to probably do that even if you ask them.

Since they do not value Heisey too much....he reminds me of the 1987 season....when they could have traded anyone of Jones, Daniels, Paul ..for some pitching. So which one will Hesiey out of those 3 be and is he worth trading away?

OesterPoster
06-09-2011, 10:17 AM
Just because it's not an immediate area of concern doesn't mean the brass shouldn't look to improve it at the right price. Of course the starting pitching ought to be the primary need, but one doesn't have to happen in place of the other.

Exactly. Boosting the offense now while giving up a minimal piece is fine with me. Save the big chips for a pitching move closer to the deadline when prices come down. Everyone wants starting pitching right now, and too many teams are still involved.

The problem is hoping the Reds are still a buyer at that time.

bucksfan2
06-09-2011, 10:49 AM
The Reds have holes to fill in LF, SS, and SP. If you improve either of those spots your improve your ball club. If your able to trade a 5th OF type for an improvement then you go ahead and do it.

IslandRed
06-09-2011, 11:07 AM
Having put in a devil's-advocate argument for trading FOR Ludwick, my similar argument AGAINST trading Heisey is not based on over-inflating his worth as a potential starter; it's that he's the only legit Plan B for covering center field in the event of a Stubbs injury or production cliff-dive. No one else figures except Sappelt (who hasn't returned from his injury yet anyway), and the conventional wisdom seems to be that he has the range for CF but not the arm.

In the end, maybe that's not enough reason to not make the swap if Heisey is the deal-breaker from the Padres' perspective, but it does argue for first trying to get them to take something else.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-09-2011, 11:31 AM
Exactly. Boosting the offense now while giving up a minimal piece is fine with me. Save the big chips for a pitching move closer to the deadline when prices come down. Everyone wants starting pitching right now, and too many teams are still involved.

The problem is hoping the Reds are still a buyer at that time.

I'm hoping the Reds are still a buyer after this road trip :(

Regardless, I'd at least try to find some way to get Matt Kemp out of LA.

Guacarock
06-09-2011, 11:48 AM
Having put in a devil's-advocate argument for trading FOR Ludwick, my similar argument AGAINST trading Heisey is not based on over-inflating his worth as a potential starter; it's that he's the only legit Plan B for covering center field in the event of a Stubbs injury or production cliff-dive. No one else figures except Sappelt (who hasn't returned from his injury yet anyway), and the conventional wisdom seems to be that he has the range for CF but not the arm.

In the end, maybe that's not enough reason to not make the swap if Heisey is the deal-breaker from the Padres' perspective, but it does argue for first trying to get them to take something else.

Lewis and Bruce could both backup center field in a pinch until Sappelt heals. Not saying Lewis would look as smooth at the position as Heisey, just saying that Lewis could get the job done long enough for the Reds to figure out a better Plan B.

Should we go out and get Ludwick? OK LF solution. Not real exciting, but a steadier player than Gomes. Same would apply for the A's Willingham, except he might bring a little more thunder to GABP.

Either way, I'd miss Heisey and tip my hat to him, but we do have young'uns (Frazier, Sappelt, Alonso) busting at the seams and ready or close to ready for their MLB bows. Probably about time to clear a path for them, besides improving the day-to-day team in the here and now.

PuffyPig
06-09-2011, 12:02 PM
Honestly, from an outsiders perspective, I have never understood the hype for Heisey. He has always looked like a serviceable bat in the majors yet the sense I get from Reds fans is that the is the next best thing. In my opinion, this is a case of fans over-hyping prospects from their organization. This phenomena happens in all organizations. The Reds are a couple moves away from being a dangerous playoff team. I don't understand the reluctance to giving up some prospects in a prospect rich farm system.

I don't often agree with you Mike ( at least I don't often tell you), but you are bang on here.

Heisey will be gone in a few years anyway, replaced by the next wave of OF prospects we have.

PuffyPig
06-09-2011, 12:05 PM
To me, the offense is fine. The Reds currently lead all of baseball in runs scored. Ludwick might be nice but I would try improving the starting pitching before renting offense.


The problem witrh improving the starting pitching is you likely need to get a #1 to improve it.

When bailey gets back, the rotation is likely Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey Leake and Volquez, with Wood in reserve.

it will be very expensive to get anyone really better than those 6.

Roy Tucker
06-09-2011, 12:17 PM
I'm starting to feel that Chris Heisey is the latter-day Chris Denorfia.

westofyou
06-09-2011, 12:21 PM
I'm starting to feel that Chris Heisey is the latter-day Chris Denorfia.

Champ Summers, Tracy Jones, Cukoo Christiansan... and on and on

Dan
06-09-2011, 12:34 PM
Personally I like a backup outfield of Heisey and Lewis. Gomes should be DFA'd for his own protection.

But yeah, wanting to hang on to Heisey at the expense of picking up a nice player like Ludwick is probably not the best decision when we have other in-house options.

Big Klu
06-09-2011, 02:54 PM
So would I but the Dodgers are not going to probably do that even if you ask them.

Since they do not value Heisey too much....he reminds me of the 1987 season....when they could have traded anyone of Jones, Daniels, Paul ..for some pitching. So which one will Hesiey out of those 3 be and is he worth trading away?

I have said for some time that Chris Heisey is Tracy Jones with a more pleasant demeanor.


Lewis and Bruce could both backup center field in a pinch until Sappelt heals. Not saying Lewis would look as smooth at the position as Heisey, just saying that Lewis could get the job done long enough for the Reds to figure out a better Plan B.

I would much rather play Bruce in CF than Lewis. Fred Lewis appears to be an Alex Johnson or Kal Daniels defensively--he has all the physical tools to be a good OF, but for some reason he isn't. I actually think Gomes has better defensive instincts than Lewis--the only thing Fred has over Jonny is speed.


Champ Summers, Tracy Jones, Cukoo Christiansan... and on and on

Cuckoo Christensen?! You're going seriously old school there!

oneupper
06-09-2011, 03:10 PM
People forget that Ryan Ludwick was Chris Heisey about five years earlier.

nate
06-09-2011, 03:34 PM
Just because it's not an immediate area of concern doesn't mean the brass shouldn't look to improve it at the right price. Of course the starting pitching ought to be the primary need, but one doesn't have to happen in place of the other.

Great!

Nevertheless, the pitching is likely a more complex problem to solve and one that needs solving the most.

CTA513
06-09-2011, 03:41 PM
If the Reds see Heisey as a 4th or 5th outfielder at best then I would probably do the trade.

nate
06-09-2011, 03:43 PM
The problem witrh improving the starting pitching is you likely need to get a #1 to improve it.

When bailey gets back, the rotation is likely Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey Leake and Volquez, with Wood in reserve.

it will be very expensive to get anyone really better than those 6.

That's why I said "improve" rather than "trade for."

Although, I think Edwin Jackson could be useful and economical.

*BaseClogger*
06-09-2011, 03:49 PM
Although, I think Edwin Jackson could be useful and economical.

Really? He's a flyball pitcher who hasn't had a K/BB ratio much better than what we already have, not to mention his salary...

OldXOhio
06-09-2011, 04:00 PM
If this is a mere suggestion by Hal, how does he know the Pads would do the deal for Heisey?

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 04:02 PM
Great!

Nevertheless, the pitching is likely a more complex problem to solve and one that needs solving the most.

Heisey likely won't be a major piece to any solutions to the pitching issues, so if they view Ludwick as an improvement I don't see this being held up with Chris' inclusion.

Will M
06-09-2011, 04:55 PM
Couple of things:

1) IMO Heisey is a solid 4th or 5th outfielder who is cheap. Thats valuable to the Reds in 2011 and for the next couple of years. Lewis can't play CF. So if Heisey was traded for Ludwick we would have nobody to play CF other than Stubbs. Our best would be Ludwick in RF, Bruce in CF & Lewis or Gomes in LF. Ouch.

2) If the trade was Heisey for Ludwick and cash versus Jordan Smith for Ludwick then its a no brainer. One adds talent to the team. One adds cash to the owners pocket.

11larkin11
06-09-2011, 07:22 PM
Couple of things:

1) IMO Heisey is a solid 4th or 5th outfielder who is cheap. Thats valuable to the Reds in 2011 and for the next couple of years. Lewis can't play CF. So if Heisey was traded for Ludwick we would have nobody to play CF other than Stubbs. Our best would be Ludwick in RF, Bruce in CF & Lewis or Gomes in LF. Ouch.

2) If the trade was Heisey for Ludwick and cash versus Jordan Smith for Ludwick then its a no brainer. One adds talent to the team. One adds cash to the owners pocket.


For one game, sure. But I'm assuming that Sappelt could come up and play CF in a pinch.

traderumor
06-09-2011, 08:09 PM
Chris Heisey is getting jerked around by the Reds. He should be praying for a trade to a team that will give him a legitimate shot as starting OFer.

HokieRed
06-09-2011, 08:36 PM
Chris Heisey is getting jerked around by the Reds. He should be praying for a trade to a team that will give him a legitimate shot as starting OFer.

Agree. Even though I think a good case could be made for a trade for Ludwick, I see no reason why Chris Heisey isn't our everyday left fielder until it's clear he can't handle the job. That is, unless Yonder Alonso is brought up to play it, or even better, the MVP is shifted there and Yonder is put on 1b, thus giving us our best lineup.

nate
06-09-2011, 09:10 PM
Really? He's a flyball pitcher who hasn't had a K/BB ratio much better than what we already have, not to mention his salary...

I think he could give the Reds a highish 3/lowish 4 FIP while going roughly 7 IP per start while not being terribly expensive due to him being a FA after this year (I believe.)

MikeThierry
06-10-2011, 03:07 AM
I don't often agree with you Mike ( at least I don't often tell you), but you are bang on here.

Heisey will be gone in a few years anyway, replaced by the next wave of OF prospects we have.

Puffy, I just look at the Reds right now and I just think to myself "DO SOMETHING!!!". Its almost annoying how much they value prospects at the expense of their team floundering around .500 this year. I know you guys have to consider expenses more than lets say the Cards or the Phillies do. I realize that. I just don't feel it is sound strategy to just sit back and do nothing when there are clear needs for the Reds while the Cards and Brewers continue to have success. At what point will it be too late?

Will M
06-10-2011, 05:53 AM
Puffy, I just look at the Reds right now and I just think to myself "DO SOMETHING!!!". Its almost annoying how much they value prospects at the expense of their team floundering around .500 this year. I know you guys have to consider expenses more than lets say the Cards or the Phillies do. I realize that. I just don't feel it is sound strategy to just sit back and do nothing when there are clear needs for the Reds while the Cards and Brewers continue to have success. At what point will it be too late?

between not wanting to add payroll since mid 2010 & not wanting to trade prospects there isn't much the team can do. Mike, if you think its puzzling as a non Reds fan I can tell you that as a Reds fan it is both puzzling and frustrating.

mth123
06-10-2011, 06:19 AM
To me, the offense is fine. The Reds currently lead all of baseball in runs scored. Ludwick might be nice but I would try improving the starting pitching before renting offense.

Of course the pitching hasn't performed. The rotation was built on an iffy foundation of unproven and injured arms. There was talent there but for it to work out with that particular collection of arms, a whole lot of variables had to break the right way. I think too many assumed that would just automatically happen.

Still, the primary motivation is to win more games not to dominate the stat charts. The Reds haven't always taken advantage of their pitching when it has performed. Its not like all of their losses are where they've been battered to death. Of their 31 losses they've lost 4 games with a score of 3-2, 2 more with a score of 2-1 and 1 each with scores of 3-1, 4-3, 4-2, 5-4 and 5-3. That is 11 of their 31 losses where one more productive bat may have made the difference. Given the fact that the current 5th and 6th place hitters have OPS numbers hovering around .700 (and one whose improvement is limited by a fairly significant degenerative condition in his shoulder), adding a bat that could hit 5th would be an improvement and maybe a couple of those 11 games would have been Ws instead of Ls.

There isn't an upper limit on how many runs they can score. Sure they score a pretty decent amount of runs now, but scoring more would still improve the team and hopefully convert a few future losses to wins. I'd be all for getting Ludwick. I'd love it if they could structure a deal that get's the Pads to pay the bills. That would leave the budget with some room to acquire an arm when the next bump in the road comes along for this rotation.

Dan
06-10-2011, 07:04 AM
Considering Heisey is a 4/5th outfielder, I was just wondering...how much are the Reds missing Chris Dickerson and Chris Denorfia right now? I'd say not very much.

If all it takes to get Ludwick is Heisey, and Ludwick provides a solid upgrade in the middle of the order, you gotta get him.

membengal
06-10-2011, 07:33 AM
Of course the pitching hasn't performed. The rotation was built on an iffy foundation of unproven and injured arms. There was talent there but for it to work out with that particular collection of arms, a whole lot of variables had to break the right way. I think too many assumed that would just automatically happen.

Still, the primary motivation is to win more games not to dominate the stat charts. The Reds haven't always taken advantage of their pitching when it has performed. Its not like all of their losses are where they've been battered to death. Of their 31 losses they've lost 4 games with a score of 3-2, 2 more with a score of 2-1 and 1 each with scores of 3-1, 4-3, 4-2, 5-4 and 5-3. That is 11 of their 31 losses where one more productive bat may have made the difference. Given the fact that the current 5th and 6th place hitters have OPS numbers hovering around .700 (and one whose improvement is limited by a fairly significant degenerative condition in his shoulder), adding a bat that could hit 5th would be an improvement and maybe a couple of those 11 games would have been Ws instead of Ls.

There isn't an upper limit on how many runs they can score. Sure they score a pretty decent amount of runs now, but scoring more would still improve the team and hopefully convert a few future losses to wins. I'd be all for getting Ludwick. I'd love it if they could structure a deal that get's the Pads to pay the bills. That would leave the budget with some room to acquire an arm when the next bump in the road comes along for this rotation.

This post is full of logical win.

GoReds
06-10-2011, 07:44 AM
mth's post is pretty dead on, but I don't want Ludwick. I can't put my finger on it, but I don't want to see him in a Reds uni. A 336/412/748 line doesn't exactly buoy my confidence in him, either.

traderumor
06-10-2011, 08:10 AM
Puffy, I just look at the Reds right now and I just think to myself "DO SOMETHING!!!". Its almost annoying how much they value prospects at the expense of their team floundering around .500 this year. I know you guys have to consider expenses more than lets say the Cards or the Phillies do. I realize that. I just don't feel it is sound strategy to just sit back and do nothing when there are clear needs for the Reds while the Cards and Brewers continue to have success. At what point will it be too late?
The Cards are still running on fumes this year and going forward and the Brewers are riding a record based on dominating at home for a couple of weeks, and they have already mortgaged their future. I wouldn't exactly say that the Cards and Brewers are forcing the Reds' hand to "win now at any cost" with nearly 100 games left on the schedule.

GoReds
06-10-2011, 08:34 AM
I'd like to think the Dodgers matchup well with the Reds as trade partners.

Kemp
Billingsley

for

Alonso
Francisco
Wood or Bailey
Heisey

- or -

Alonso
Meseraco
AAA pitcher (Maloney/Reinecke/Lecure)

wally post
06-10-2011, 09:10 AM
Personally, and this is entirely conjecture, it occurs to me that Walt is waiting on powers out of his control and just might be as frustrated as we are.
One example (just suppose): I would think the Mets WANT to trade Reyes (and Beltran), knowing they can get a lot for this talent and can't afford to keep Reyes, but they are winning now and even have a shot for the lead. If the Mets made trades now, the fans and press would roast them. It would murder the brand.
Of course, this is just one example, but trading for the ilk of a Ryan Ludwig now might dampen the odds of a slobberknocker. We're gonna have to wait and there is nothing we can do. I fully expect a trade or two at the deadline.

OldXOhio
06-10-2011, 10:05 AM
I'd like to think the Dodgers matchup well with the Reds as trade partners.

Kemp
Billingsley

for

Alonso
Francisco
Wood or Bailey
Heisey

- or -

Alonso
Meseraco
AAA pitcher (Maloney/Reinecke/Lecure)

LA's GM should be fired for doing a deal like either of those.

buckeyenut
06-10-2011, 10:10 AM
As much as I'd love to see a big slobberknocker right now, I'm perfectly fine waiting a couple of weeks and seeing how the market plays out. I think we are in this the next 5 years and will make a move directed and winning during that time period, no matter how we are doing this year. This isn't the year to just go for it this year. Use the big chips to set yourself up for next three years.

I think standings don't really start shaking out for another couple of weeks. The only teams out of it right now IMO are Orioles (Scott, Markakis, Hardy), Royals (Soria, Francis, Gordon), Twins (Liriano), Athletics (Willingham, Gonzalez), Nationals, Cubs (zambrano, Garza) and Astros (Pence, Bourn). Wait two weeks and we could easily add Dodgers (Kemp, Either, Billingsley, Kershaw), Padres (Ludwick, Bell, Adams), Pirates (mccutcheon), Mets (Beltran, Reyes, Wright), Marlins (Ramirez, Johnson), Angels (Haren, Weaver, Piniero), White Sox (Rios, Quentin, Buehrle, Floyd), Blue Jays (Bautista, Romero) to that list.

I know not all of the guys I mention will be available, but if we are looking for a medium term deal rather than a short term deal, we will be willing to pay more, opening up some of these guys as options.

nate
06-10-2011, 10:26 AM
Still, the primary motivation is to win more games not to dominate the stat charts.

So we wouldn't acquire Ryan Ludwick because of his "stats," we'd acquire him because he smells good? Is a good cook? Loves children? Where was this argument when there was discussion of Ludwick's OPS upthread?

The "your stats don't win ballgames" arguments are played.


The Reds haven't always taken advantage of their pitching when it has performed. Its not like all of their losses are where they've been battered to death. Of their 31 losses they've lost 4 games with a score of 3-2, 2 more with a score of 2-1 and 1 each with scores of 3-1, 4-3, 4-2, 5-4 and 5-3. That is 11 of their 31 losses where one more productive bat may have made the difference.

Or one more productive pitch. Or one more productive defensive play.


Given the fact that the current 5th and 6th place hitters have OPS numbers hovering around .700 (and one whose improvement is limited by a fairly significant degenerative condition in his shoulder), adding a bat that could hit 5th would be an improvement and maybe a couple of those 11 games would have been Ws instead of Ls.

See above.


There isn't an upper limit on how many runs they can score.


Using that same line of thinking, there isn't a lower limit on how many runs they can prevent (neither idea is realistic.) There are two sides to run differential: scoring and preventing runs. Pitchers are a component of run prevention. Starting pitchers that can go deep in a game provide the secondary benefit of taxing the bullpen less.


Sure they score a pretty decent amount of runs now, but scoring more would still improve the team and hopefully convert a few future losses to wins.

Well, you're half right. The other half is that preventing fewer would improve the team too.


I'd be all for getting Ludwick. I'd love it if they could structure a deal that get's the Pads to pay the bills. That would leave the budget with some room to acquire an arm when the next bump in the road comes along for this rotation.

We're one of the best offensive and defensive teams in baseball.

We're one of the worst pitching teams in baseball.

Acquiring Ludwick isn't going to change the former or the latter.

jojo
06-10-2011, 10:43 AM
So we wouldn't acquire Ryan Ludwick because of his "stats," we'd acquire him because he smells good? Is a good cook? Loves children? Where was this argument when there was discussion of Ludwick's OPS upthread?

Chicks dig the long ball but they also dig a good smelling man... It could work.

However, generally women say they dig men who are good cooks and love children but usually they pick bad guys and when their pythag goes to pieces, they complain that all of the good men are taken ...

OldXOhio
06-10-2011, 11:59 AM
So we wouldn't acquire Ryan Ludwick because of his "stats," we'd acquire him because he smells good? Is a good cook? Loves children? Where was this argument when there was discussion of Ludwick's OPS upthread?

The "your stats don't win ballgames" arguments are played.



Or one more productive pitch. Or one more productive defensive play.



See above.



Using that same line of thinking, there isn't a lower limit on how many runs they can prevent (neither idea is realistic.) There are two sides to run differential: scoring and preventing runs. Pitchers are a component of run prevention. Starting pitchers that can go deep in a game provide the secondary benefit of taxing the bullpen less.



Well, you're half right. The other half is that preventing fewer would improve the team too.



We're one of the best offensive and defensive teams in baseball.

We're one of the worst pitching teams in baseball.

Acquiring Ludwick isn't going to change the former or the latter.

No one is saying the pitching doesn't need help. I really don't get why you keep making this argument. And if it's because it's the pressing need, teams sometimes do make multiple trades to improve. It's crazy, I know.

edabbs44
06-10-2011, 12:08 PM
We're one of the best offensive and defensive teams in baseball.

We're one of the worst pitching teams in baseball.

Acquiring Ludwick isn't going to change the former or the latter.

Does that mean that we will be one of the best offensive and defensive teams and one of the worst pitching teams in baseball from here on out as well?

Benihana
06-10-2011, 12:17 PM
Walt: We've had absolutely no conversations with anyone. Ever. I'm not interested in even discussing trades that could potentially improve the team.

PuffyPig
06-10-2011, 12:22 PM
We're one of the best offensive and defensive teams in baseball.

We're one of the worst pitching teams in baseball.

Acquiring Ludwick isn't going to change the former or the latter.

That's a silly argument to make.

Aquiring Ludwick will make us a better offensive and defensive team.

The goal is to improve.

And yes, you can improve something that is already very good.

_Sir_Charles_
06-10-2011, 12:46 PM
Walt: We've had absolutely no conversations with anyone. Ever. I'm not interested in even discussing trades that could potentially improve the team.

:laugh:

Now as to what he REALLY said....


SAN FRANCISCO — Reds GM Walt Jocketty said rumors of a possible Chris Heisey trade (to San Diego) are untrue. Jocketty recently also dismissed rumors of Mets shortstop Jose Reyes possibly coming to the Reds.
“Just like with the Mets, we’ve had no discussion with San Diego,” Jocketty said.
The Heisey rumor said the Padres would entertain trading outfielder Ryan Ludwick to the Reds for outfielder Heisey or prospects.

The Voice of IH
06-10-2011, 12:51 PM
in the last two weeks, Johnny Gomes has raised his average 42 points. He is knocking the cover off the ball.

penantboundreds
06-10-2011, 01:01 PM
in the last two weeks, Johnny Gomes has raised his average 42 points. He is knocking the cover off the ball.


Yup, and in another 2 weeks he won't hit water falling out of a boat...

The Voice of IH
06-10-2011, 01:05 PM
Yup, and in another 2 weeks he won't hit water falling out of a boat...

what makes you say that with such certainty? Gomes whole MO is that he is streaky. He has been awfully streaky so far this season. Is it really that hard to believe that the month of June could belong to Johnny Gomes?

jojo
06-10-2011, 01:14 PM
what makes you say that with such certainty? Gomes whole MO is that he is streaky. He has been awfully streaky so far this season. Is it really that hard to believe that the month of June could belong to Johnny Gomes?

Im perfectly content with Gomes getting chance to knock the cover off of the ball every 3 or 4 days against a lefty....

IslandRed
06-10-2011, 01:25 PM
:laugh:

Now as to what he REALLY said....

Yep. And honestly, what else would anyone reasonably expect him to say for public consumption at this point? It's one thing to say "yes, we're looking at ways to improve," quite another to go on the record about specific players when the trade market isn't even really open for business yet.

corkedbat
06-10-2011, 04:27 PM
Yup, and in another 2 weeks he won't hit water falling out of a boat...

His lack of defense will remain rock-steady though. :evil:

MikeThierry
06-10-2011, 06:24 PM
The Cards are still running on fumes this year and going forward and the Brewers are riding a record based on dominating at home for a couple of weeks, and they have already mortgaged their future. I wouldn't exactly say that the Cards and Brewers are forcing the Reds' hand to "win now at any cost" with nearly 100 games left on the schedule.

I'm not so sure what you are talking about when you say the Cards are running on fumes. The reason why the Cards are doing so well is because of young talent off the bench. Jon Jay and Allen Craig could be starting on half the teams in baseball but they are reserve guys on the bench. There was an ESPN article which basically said the Cards had the best bench in the majors. They have been spectacular through all of these injuries. The young guys in the pen have really stabilized that chaotic situation. If anything the Cards look to really get better in July due to injured players coming back (Holliday and Freese). If you think the Cards are going to fade, that is your prerogative. Is it going to be August when you realize that "hey, those stinking Cardinals are actually a well put together ball club".

If your strategy of winning is based off of hope instead of dealing on the realities of the current situation, as Tony LaRussa once said "I'd like to manage against you".

traderumor
06-10-2011, 08:38 PM
I'm not so sure what you are talking about when you say the Cards are running on fumes. The reason why the Cards are doing so well is because of young talent off the bench. Jon Jay and Allen Craig could be starting on half the teams in baseball but they are reserve guys on the bench. There was an ESPN article which basically said the Cards had the best bench in the majors. They have been spectacular through all of these injuries. The young guys in the pen have really stabilized that chaotic situation. If anything the Cards look to really get better in July due to injured players coming back (Holliday and Freese). If you think the Cards are going to fade, that is your prerogative. Is it going to be August when you realize that "hey, those stinking Cardinals are actually a well put together ball club".

If your strategy of winning is based off of hope instead of dealing on the realities of the current situation, as Tony LaRussa once said "I'd like to manage against you".Jon Jay and Allen Craig are truly 4th OFers, they might start elsewhere, but not on good teams. Yes, I still think the Cards are going to be fortunate to play .500 ball the rest of the way. What's that, 86 wins? Sounds about right. And I'd say that's overperforming.

And your last comment is insulting.

757690
06-10-2011, 08:48 PM
I'm not so sure what you are talking about when you say the Cards are running on fumes. The reason why the Cards are doing so well is because of young talent off the bench. Jon Jay and Allen Craig could be starting on half the teams in baseball but they are reserve guys on the bench. There was an ESPN article which basically said the Cards had the best bench in the majors. They have been spectacular through all of these injuries. The young guys in the pen have really stabilized that chaotic situation. If anything the Cards look to really get better in July due to injured players coming back (Holliday and Freese). If you think the Cards are going to fade, that is your prerogative. Is it going to be August when you realize that "hey, those stinking Cardinals are actually a well put together ball club".

If your strategy of winning is based off of hope instead of dealing on the realities of the current situation, as Tony LaRussa once said "I'd like to manage against you".

I'm not sure running on fumes is the best phrase, but I think even the biggest Cardinal fan would admit the main reason why they are doing so well is that many key players are playing well above their heads.

Berkman
Lohse
Molina
McClellen
Craig
Jay
Salas
Sanchez

And really only Pujols is underperforming.

I think that is what PuffyPig was referring to.

Conversely, The Reds have Hernandez as the only key player playing over his head and due for a correction, and have pretty much their entire starting pitching staff underperforming.

Now Berkman can continue to OPS 1.000, Lohse can continue with an ERA of 2.41, and Salas and Sanchez can continue to be nearly perfect in save situations. But even if they do, the Cardinals still have the problem with their defense. And history tells us that poor defensive teams eventually fold due to their poor defense. It can be hidden early in the season, but over 162 games, it always rears its ugly head and bites the team in the rear.

Will M
06-10-2011, 08:53 PM
I'm not so sure what you are talking about when you say the Cards are running on fumes. The reason why the Cards are doing so well is because of young talent off the bench. Jon Jay and Allen Craig could be starting on half the teams in baseball but they are reserve guys on the bench. There was an ESPN article which basically said the Cards had the best bench in the majors. They have been spectacular through all of these injuries. The young guys in the pen have really stabilized that chaotic situation. If anything the Cards look to really get better in July due to injured players coming back (Holliday and Freese). If you think the Cards are going to fade, that is your prerogative. Is it going to be August when you realize that "hey, those stinking Cardinals are actually a well put together ball club".

If your strategy of winning is based off of hope instead of dealing on the realities of the current situation, as Tony LaRussa once said "I'd like to manage against you".

i don't know if these guys would be starters on lots of other teams but they are excellent bench players. no doubt that this is a big reason the Cards are good this year, despite losing a TOR starter and other injuries. Reds fans who think the Cards are 'smoke and mirrors' are mistaken IMO. the Cards are a better team this year. to me its pretty clear. if the Reds don't make some improvements sooner rather than later they will end up far back of the 2011 NL Central Division Champs.

Mike, I agree with you. The Reds and their fans seem to have 'hope' as the main 2011 strategy so far. Hope that Bailey comes back healthy. Hope that Edinson gets it together, Chapman as well. Hope that Rolen shoulder gets better with a few cortisone shots. etc. IMO its not going to be near enough. Bob & Walt need to get their heads screwed on ASAP or its going to be quite dull around here by mid August.

Will M
06-10-2011, 09:00 PM
I'm not sure running on fumes is the best phrase, but I think even the biggest Cardinal fan would admit the main reason why they are doing so well is that many key players are playing well above their heads.

Berkman
Lohse
Molina
McClellen
Craig
Jay
Salas
Sanchez

And really only Pujols is underperforming.

I think that is what PuffyPig was referring to.

Conversely, The Reds have Hernandez as the only key player playing over his head and due for a correction, and have pretty much their entire starting pitching staff underperforming.

Now Berkman can continue to OPS 1.000, Lohse can continue with an ERA of 2.41, and Salas and Sanchez can continue to be nearly perfect in save situations. But even if they do, the Cardinals still have the problem with their defense. And history tells us that poor defensive teams eventually fold due to their poor defense. It can be hidden early in the season, but over 162 games, it always rears its ugly head and bites the team in the rear.

Holliday has missed ~20 games.
Freese will be back at some point.
those are 2 more guys who can boost the Cards beyond what they have done so far.

Really for me its Lohse & Berkman who have 'overperformed'. Lohse had injuries in 2010 and 2009 I believe. Maybe he is healthy. For Berkman maybe the weight loss/better shape really is helping. time will tell. The rest of the Cards guys are either young or maybe are just having a good year. The Reds have their share of these guys as well. Bray, Ondrusek, Coco. If Bray plays well he can't be talented & yet Salas is 'overperforming'. thats a double standard. its natural as a fan. but sometimes its good to look at your team with a more objective viewpoint.

IMO the Reds can't just sit around and hope that 1) the Cards fall back and 2) the Reds magically get better. thats a really bad plan.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-10-2011, 09:12 PM
Is Ryan Ludwick that much of an upgrade over Jonny Gomes?

Seriously. Maybe?

I'm sure Sappelt, Alonso, or even Heisey could give nearly the same (or better) production for pennies on the dollar.

MikeThierry
06-10-2011, 09:28 PM
Really for me its Lohse & Berkman who have 'overperformed'. Lohse had injuries in 2010 and 2009 I believe. Maybe he is healthy. For Berkman maybe the weight loss/better shape really is helping. time will tell. The rest of the Cards guys are either young or maybe are just having a good year. The Reds have their share of these guys as well. Bray, Ondrusek, Coco. If Bray plays well he can't be talented & yet Salas is 'overperforming'. thats a double standard. its natural as a fan. but sometimes its good to look at your team with a more objective viewpoint.

Lohse has been injured for two years. The way he is pitching reminds me of when he was pitching when he was healthy. Is he a pitcher that is a sub 2.50 ERA guy? Maybe not, but he certainly is a better pitcher than what he was when he was injured the past two years.

As far as the young arms go, they are legit in my opinion. No they won't show up on a top prospect chart but the Cards have done an excellent job in the past couple of years of drafting power arms in the system and opening up their latin american school. Sanchez is the first player from that latin american school to come to the big leagues.



Is Ryan Ludwick that much of an upgrade over Jonny Gomes?

Getting back to the original topic, yes. Ludwick is a huge upgrade over Gomes in that ballpark. I really think Petco has messed with Ludwicks head. Plus he has no protection in that lineup in San Diego.

757690
06-10-2011, 09:28 PM
Holliday has missed ~20 games.
Freese will be back at some point.
those are 2 more guys who can boost the Cards beyond what they have done so far.

Really for me its Lohse & Berkman who have 'overperformed'. Lohse had injuries in 2010 and 2009 I believe. Maybe he is healthy. For Berkman maybe the weight loss/better shape really is helping. time will tell. The rest of the Cards guys are either young or maybe are just having a good year. The Reds have their share of these guys as well. Bray, Ondrusek, Coco. If Bray plays well he can't be talented & yet Salas is 'overperforming'. thats a double standard. its natural as a fan. but sometimes its good to look at your team with a more objective viewpoint.

IMO the Reds can't just sit around and hope that 1) the Cards fall back and 2) the Reds magically get better. thats a really bad plan.

Bray's not closing games.

And no one is expecting the Reds to magically get better, just perform up to their expectations. If they do that, they will win the division, no matter what the Cardinals and Brewers do.

MikeThierry
06-10-2011, 09:30 PM
Bray's not closing games.

And no one is expecting the Reds to magically get better, just perform up to their expectations. If they do that, they will win the division, no matter what the Cardinals and Brewers do.

Do you think that some of the Reds over performed last season and Reds fans are expecting the same result as last season from some of those players?

757690
06-10-2011, 09:36 PM
Do you think that some of the Reds over performed last season and Reds fans are expecting the same result as last season from some of those players?

Probably, and Gomes and Janish are a prime examples.

But regardless of what the fans think, based on objective projections, which are based on career numbers and natural trends, the Reds have a significant advantage over the rest of the division.

But we all know that that is why we play the games on the field, and not paper.

BTW, Lohse has always had great stuff, but even when healthy he has never been able to put together a full season of solid production, Maybe this is the first year he does it?

RedLegSuperStar
06-10-2011, 09:37 PM
I'm all for added offense.. I just think Heisey, Alonso, Frazier, Sappelt, & Hermida all could be upgrades to LR and should be given a chance to prove themselves.

mth123
06-10-2011, 09:41 PM
Is Ryan Ludwick that much of an upgrade over Jonny Gomes?

Seriously. Maybe?

I'm sure Sappelt, Alonso, or even Heisey could give nearly the same (or better) production for pennies on the dollar.

I think if you put Jonny Gomes in Petco, his OPS is about .500. If you put Ludwick in GABP, his OPS is about .850. And then there is that whole defense thing...

Sappelt and Heisey can't fill that mid-order spot that Ludwick can. Alonso is a third lefty to go with Bruce and Votto and the Reds just won't go for that in the 3, 4 ,5 spots IMO (though I'd be fine with it). I also have doubts that the Reds would really allow Alonso out there. Deal spare parts for Ludwick then deal Alonso for the missing starter after Bailey's next go round is derailed with more shoulder pain by mid July.

MikeThierry
06-10-2011, 09:44 PM
Probably, and Gomes and Janish are a prime examples.

But regardless of what the fans think, based on objective projections, which are based on career numbers and natural trends, the Reds have a significant advantage over the rest of the division.

But we all know that that is why we play the games on the field, and not paper.

BTW, Lohse has always had great stuff, but even when healthy he has never been able to put together a full season of solid production, Maybe this is the first year he does it?

What significant advantage do the Reds have over the rest of the division other than a good bullpen and trade chips?

Under Dave Duncan, Lohse has been a good pitcher when he is healthy. His 2008 year was particularly good.

757690
06-10-2011, 10:07 PM
What significant advantage do the Reds have over the rest of the division other than a good bullpen and trade chips?

Under Dave Duncan, Lohse has been a good pitcher when he is healthy. His 2008 year was particularly good.

Lohse was very streaky in 2008 too, he just had more good streaks than bad. But still that was his best year by far and his ERA was over a full run higher than it is now. Maybe this is his breakout year and he's a Cy Young candidate? But it would be very unexpected, even now.

The Reds projected at the beginning of the season to have a better offense than the Cards and Brewers, and better starting pitching than the Cards. Again, this is only projections, and projections don't always pan out, both negatively and positively.

But most importantly, they are by far the best defensive team in the division. They don't have anyone playing out of position, their worst fielder doesn't play everyday, and they have plus fielders at the other seven positions, gold gloves at two of them and potential gold gloves at another two (Stubbs and Bruce).

This last part is why I feel the Reds still are favorites to win the division. I have seen too many teams like the Cards and Brewers do well at first with a poor defensive team, and then collapse because of their defense. I saw it nearly every year of the last decade with the Reds.

But the great thing about baseball is that the unexpected happens all the time.

They are the only team that was put together without any major question marks or holes.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-10-2011, 10:09 PM
I think if you put Jonny Gomes in Petco, his OPS is about .500. If you put Ludwick in GABP, his OPS is about .850. And then there is that whole defense thing...

Sappelt and Heisey can't fill that mid-order spot that Ludwick can. Alonso is a third lefty to go with Bruce and Votto and the Reds just won't go for that in the 3, 4 ,5 spots IMO (though I'd be fine with it). I also have doubts that the Reds would really allow Alonso out there. Deal spare parts for Ludwick then deal Alonso for the missing starter after Bailey's next go round is derailed with more shoulder pain by mid July.

Good points.

As long as we don't have to give up too much, I'd take him. I just checked his UZR on fangraphs and he's better than average out in LF (his best position). I didn't realize he was decent in the field. Plus, his splits do suggest he's getting killed in Petco.

He's under contract for just this year, so we'd only owe him the remaining salary for 2011 (around $4M).

You sold me.

edabbs44
06-10-2011, 10:16 PM
I think Ludwick may be getting a little too much credit for his one career year.

2008 - monster year
2009 - very Gomes like
2010 - very gomes like
2011 - very gomes like, and he has more XBH at Petco than on the road this year (in 30 someodd more ABs).

The only upgrade potential I see in him is that he hits RHPs better than LHPs, so he could be a platooner with JG. I like Heisey on the bench but I wouldn't hold up a trade because of him, if the FO thinks it's a legit upgrade.

edabbs44
06-10-2011, 10:17 PM
Good points.

As long as we don't have to give up too much, I'd take him. I just checked his UZR on fangraphs and he's better than average out in LF (his best position). I didn't realize he was decent in the field. Plus, his splits do suggest he's getting killed in Petco.

He's under contract for just this year, so we'd only owe him the remaining salary for 2011 (around $4M).

You sold me.

His BA is getting killed in Petco, where his babip is 140+ points less. He has more 2Bs and the same amt of HRs.

MikeThierry
06-10-2011, 10:18 PM
Lohse was very streaky in 2008 too, he just had more good streaks than bad. But still that was his best year by far and his ERA was over a full run higher than it is now. Maybe this is his breakout year and he's a Cy Young candidate? But it would be very unexpected, even now.

The Reds projected at the beginning of the season to have a better offense than the Cards and Brewers, and better starting pitching than the Cards. Again, this is only projections, and projections don't always pan out, both negatively and positively.

But most importantly, they are by far the best defensive team in the division. They don't have anyone playing out of position, their worst fielder doesn't play everyday, and they have plus fielders at the other seven positions, gold gloves at two of them and potential gold gloves at another two (Stubbs and Bruce).

This last part is why I feel the Reds still are favorites to win the division. I have seen too many teams like the Cards and Brewers do well at first with a poor defensive team, and then collapse because of their defense. I saw it nearly every year of the last decade with the Reds.

But the great thing about baseball is that the unexpected happens all the time.

They are the only team that was put together without any major question marks or holes.

The Reds offense was projected to be better than the Cards offense this year but projections are way off. When the Cards are healthy, 1-7 they are one of the toughest teams to pitch to in the majors. This is why I don't think the defense is going to hurt them as much as you might think. Yes there have been some defensive lapses but they have fielded the ball much better lately. The games where I have seen defense let them down, the Cards just slugged the other team to death. While you probably can't rely on out slugging the other team all year, it certainly will make up for some defensive blunders.

I don't even have to get in the starting pitching. There is no way I'm taking the Reds starting pitching over the Cards right now or even any time this year.

We haven't even discussed the Brewers which are an excellent put together team.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-10-2011, 10:19 PM
His BA is getting killed in Petco, where his babip is 140+ points less. He has more 2Bs and the same amt of HRs.

I just noticed that too. Very strange.

757690
06-10-2011, 11:42 PM
The Reds offense was projected to be better than the Cards offense this year but projections are way off. When the Cards are healthy, 1-7 they are one of the toughest teams to pitch to in the majors. This is why I don't think the defense is going to hurt them as much as you might think. Yes there have been some defensive lapses but they have fielded the ball much better lately. The games where I have seen defense let them down, the Cards just slugged the other team to death. While you probably can't rely on out slugging the other team all year, it certainly will make up for some defensive blunders.

I don't even have to get in the starting pitching. There is no way I'm taking the Reds starting pitching over the Cards right now or even any time this year.

We haven't even discussed the Brewers which are an excellent put together team.

Teams with Bentencourt and Theriot at SS can never be called well put together teams. Never. Defense is the first requirement for a contending team.

Look at who made the post season the last 20 years. Nearly every team was very solid defensively. Almost none of them had the defensive holes the Cardinals have currently.

It is nearly impossible to make the post season with a poor defending team. The Cardinals and Brewers are poor defending teams.

And I can guarantee that the Reds starting rotation will be more productive than the Cardinals from here on out this season.

MikeThierry
06-10-2011, 11:55 PM
And I can guarantee that the Reds starting rotation will be more productive than the Cardinals from here on out this season.

As I said before about hope, if that is part of your game plan this year, the Reds are in for a long one. I almost had to do a double take at your statement here.

757690
06-11-2011, 12:25 AM
As I said before about hope, if that is part of your game plan this year, the Reds are in for a long one. I almost had to do a double take at your statement here.

We'll see... :)

MikeThierry
06-11-2011, 10:05 AM
We'll see... :)

What you said earlier is like saying "from this point out, the Cardinals defense will be better than the Reds defense".

nate
06-11-2011, 01:09 PM
Chicks dig the long ball but they also dig a good smelling man... It could work.

However, generally women say they dig men who are good cooks and love children but usually they pick bad guys and when their pythag goes to pieces, they complain that all of the good men are taken ...

The dating pythag is a simultaneously cold and fiery Roger Lodge doppleganger.

:cool:

nate
06-11-2011, 01:29 PM
That's a silly argument to make.

Aquiring Ludwick will make us a better offensive and defensive team.

The goal is to improve.

And yes, you can improve something that is already very good.

Sure you can. But I think fixing the brakes so we can stop is a higher priority than fine-tuning the engine to get "X" more horsepower. Hopefully they do both.

nate
06-11-2011, 01:29 PM
No one is saying the pitching doesn't need help. I really don't get why you keep making this argument. And if it's because it's the pressing need, teams sometimes do make multiple trades to improve. It's crazy, I know.

I say the Reds should prioritize improving their starting pitching.

Nowhere did I say such a move precludes others.

Patrick Bateman
06-11-2011, 02:11 PM
Sure you can. But I think fixing the brakes so we can stop is a higher priority than fine-tuning the engine to get "X" more horsepower. Hopefully they do both.

The question is, if the price is Heiesy or comparable, I'm not sure if you can fix the brakes. With the cost, Ludwick might be a pretty good value addition even if it leaves a bigger hole somewhere else.

RedLegSuperStar
06-11-2011, 03:33 PM
What about Danny Dorn, Carlos Fisher, and PTBNL for Ludwick

757690
06-11-2011, 06:06 PM
Concerning improving the offense v. The pitching...

The 1975 Reds were a stuggling .500 team until they moved Rose to third and put Foster in LF everyday. At the time, pitching was by far their biggest need. Improving LF production made it unneccessary to improve the pitching.

traderumor
06-11-2011, 10:09 PM
Concerning improving the offense v. The pitching...

The 1975 Reds were a stuggling .500 team until they moved Rose to third and put Foster in LF everyday. At the time, pitching was by far their biggest need. Improving LF production made it unneccessary to improve the pitching.This is complete myth. They had Jack Billingham, Don Gullett, Gary Nolan, Freddie Norman fronting the rotation and a very good bullpen comprised of proven veterans Clay Carroll and Pedro Borbon and young guns Will McEnaney and Rawly Eastwick. They were third in the league in ERA that season, with Gullett being hurt for a significant portion of the season. Those pitchers were all in place when that move was made, which essentially pink-slipped John Vuckovich, who would make Paul Janish look like a slugger.

BTW, the Reds had what you're talking about in 1978, finished in second place. They needed more pitching, had plenty of offense. At some point, you got to have at least league average pitching to win. The offense is never going to be good enough to offset poor pitching in this league. Look no further than the 2000-2009 Reds.

Always Red
06-11-2011, 10:14 PM
This is complete myth. They had Jack Billingham, Don Gullett, Gary Nolan, Freddie Norman fronting the rotation and a very good bullpen comprised of proven veterans Clay Carroll and Pedro Borbon and young guns Will McEnaney and Rawly Eastwick. They were third in the league in ERA that season, with Gullett being hurt for a significant portion of the season. Those pitchers were all in place when that move was made, which essentially pink-slipped John Vuckovich, who would make Paul Janish look like a slugger.

BTW, the Reds had what you're talking about in 1978, finished in second place. They needed more pitching, had plenty of offense. At some point, you got to have at least league average pitching to win. The offense is never going to be good enough to offset poor pitching in this league.

Yep-the dirty secret of the BRM was that the the Reds finally had the pitching (and Sparky's innovative use of the bullpen) to go along with the slugging.

Blitz Dorsey
06-11-2011, 10:52 PM
What about Danny Dorn, Carlos Fisher, and PTBNL for Ludwick

Good luck with all that. Two players with zero value (and a PTBN) for Ludwick. Not that Ludwick has a lot of value due to his contract (and due to him being an "average" player IMO) but it would take a hell of a lot more to get him than those two (or three) guys.

VR
06-12-2011, 01:01 AM
As I said before about hope, if that is part of your game plan this year, the Reds are in for a long one. I almost had to do a double take at your statement here.

I'd have confidence in Garcia right now....that's about it. He pitched a career high 160 innings last year....and was pretty mediocre the last two months.

Carpenter is a shell of himself.
McClellan is already at his career high IP. Will he be around in August?
Westbrook is.....well, Westbrook.
Lohse is a barrel of kerosene next to a campfire.
After that......not much ready to contribute this year?

Arroyo has mono.
Bailey has been hurt.
Cueto has been hurt.
Leake is coming around.
Wood is coming around.
Volquez is volatile like Lohse...w/ a much higher upside.

They already have more QS than the Cards....with the starters underperforming the first 1/3 of the year.

To say the starters will outperform the Cards the rest of the year isn't a stretch at all.

757690
06-12-2011, 01:52 AM
This is complete myth. They had Jack Billingham, Don Gullett, Gary Nolan, Freddie Norman fronting the rotation and a very good bullpen comprised of proven veterans Clay Carroll and Pedro Borbon and young guns Will McEnaney and Rawly Eastwick. They were third in the league in ERA that season, with Gullett being hurt for a significant portion of the season. Those pitchers were all in place when that move was made, which essentially pink-slipped John Vuckovich, who would make Paul Janish look like a slugger.

BTW, the Reds had what you're talking about in 1978, finished in second place. They needed more pitching, had plenty of offense. At some point, you got to have at least league average pitching to win. The offense is never going to be good enough to offset poor pitching in this league. Look no further than the 2000-2009 Reds.

You are correct that the BRM had much better pitching than people give them credit for, thanks for pointing that out. :)

But at that time, pitching was a bigger need than their offense. Their only competition were the Dodgers and the Dodgers had a much better pitching staff, and a similar offense at that time, both were near the top of the league. The Reds had much more room to improve in the pitching department. Every Dodger starter that year had an ERA either at 3 or well below, while only two Reds starters were around 3, the rest much closer to 4. The only hole they had offensively was 3B.

So it was a similar situation to now. The Reds now have a top offense with just two holes, but room for improvement in at least three starting pitching slots. Similar with the 1975 Reds, they had a very strong offense with only one hole, but room for improvement in three starting pitching slots.

The main point being that the 1975 Reds showed that it doesn't matter where you improve your production, as long as you improve it.

REDblooded
06-12-2011, 10:42 AM
I'd have confidence in Garcia right now....that's about it. He pitched a career high 160 innings last year....and was pretty mediocre the last two months.

Carpenter is a shell of himself.
McClellan is already at his career high IP. Will he be around in August?
Westbrook is.....well, Westbrook.
Lohse is a barrel of kerosene next to a campfire.
After that......not much ready to contribute this year?

Arroyo has mono.
Bailey has been hurt.
Cueto has been hurt.
Leake is coming around.
Wood is coming around.
Volquez is volatile like Lohse...w/ a much higher upside.

They already have more QS than the Cards....with the starters underperforming the first 1/3 of the year.

To say the starters will outperform the Cards the rest of the year isn't a stretch at all.


Pretty much this... And I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Garcia's last few starts are an indicator of a pitcher that's about to spend some time on the DL...

MikeThierry
06-12-2011, 10:59 AM
Pretty much this... And I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Garcia's last few starts are an indicator of a pitcher that's about to spend some time on the DL...

Garcia is young and still trying to find it in the majors. The start previous to the last one was very good. Last start, not so much. He is still 24 or 25 and shows his inexperience adjusting to strikezones and attacking the strikezone at times. There is nothing within his pitching mechanics that would suggest he is one pitch away from the DL.

Carpenter isn't a shell of himself. His velocity is actually up this year hitting 95 and 96 at times (which I haven't seen in several years) If you go beyond the numbers, like PuffyPig did in the Scoreboard Watch Thread, you would see that he is pitching about as effective as last year, which was pretty good. He has got shelled in some starts but overall he has put his team in position to win. He just hasn't been getting any run support at all. The last five starts for him he has got something like 6 runs of total support.

Kyle Lohse isn't a 2.50 ERA pitcher but he is healthy so I don't understand the whole idea that he is a "barrel of kerosene next to a campfire". He has been injured the past two years so it is a bit unfair to expect the same results this year as he had the past two years.

Westbrook started off slow but has been effective lately.

McClellan is the real question mark. I don't know if the innings he pitches will have an effect on him or not. For the past three years he has come into spring training with the notion he was going to be in the starting rotation. He has trained for it in the off season multiple years in a row.

PuffyPig
06-12-2011, 11:11 AM
Concerning improving the offense v. The pitching...

The 1975 Reds were a stuggling .500 team until they moved Rose to third and put Foster in LF everyday. At the time, pitching was by far their biggest need. Improving LF production made it unneccessary to improve the pitching.

Certainly unnecessary to improve a pitching staff that ranked 3rd in the league in ERA.

Roy Tucker
06-12-2011, 11:36 AM
I don't think all this is rocket science. A team has strengths and weaknesses. Some of the weaknesses are hard to fill (TOR starters, a good young SS) and some are less hard (decent production out of LF).

Sure we need better pitching but that doesn't preclude making a medium-level fairly-easily-made move for LF that doesn't cause the club to lose highly valuable assets. Problems don't have to be serially solved hardest to easiest or best value to lesser value.

VR
06-12-2011, 02:44 PM
Carpenter isn't a shell of himself. His velocity is actually up this year hitting 95 and 96 at times (which I haven't seen in several years) If you go beyond the numbers, like PuffyPig did in the Scoreboard Watch Thread, you would see that he is pitching about as effective as last year, which was pretty good. He has got shelled in some starts but overall he has put his team in position to win. He just hasn't been getting any run support at all. The last five starts for him he has got something like 6 runs of total support.




Velocity or not, I'd be concerned about his strikeouts, or lack thereof. Been a dropoff for quite some time.

When a power pitcher can't rely on the K to get him out of big spots......bad things can follow.

757690
06-12-2011, 02:54 PM
Certainly unnecessary to improve a pitching staff that ranked 3rd in the league in ERA.

The Reds low ERA in 1975 was more a result of a great bullpen that was used often, than a great starting staff. There was plenty of room for improvement. The staff matched very poorly with the Dodgers' staff, their only real opponent that year.

pahster
06-12-2011, 04:20 PM
Velocity or not, I'd be concerned about his strikeouts, or lack thereof. Been a dropoff for quite some time.

When a power pitcher can't rely on the K to get him out of big spots......bad things can follow.

Carpenter's K/9 this year is 7. His career rate is 6.9, so it doesn't look like he's having less success striking people out now.

jojo
06-12-2011, 05:23 PM
Carpenter's K/9 this year is 7. His career rate is 6.9, so it doesn't look like he's having less success striking people out now.

I personally don't think it's a stretch to think the Cards rotation could finish the year with an ERA below 4.00. Several guys have FIPs that are substantially below their ERAs.

757690
06-12-2011, 05:44 PM
I personally don't think it's a stretch to think the Cards rotation could finish the year with an ERA below 4.00. Several guys have FIPs that are substantially below their ERAs.

It wouldn't be a stretch, but it wouldn't be likely either, when you consider their career numbers, recent trends and other factors besides FIP. They have not been lucky, but that doesn't mean that they are likely to continue to be this good.

VR
06-12-2011, 05:59 PM
Carpenter's K/9 this year is 7. His career rate is 6.9, so it doesn't look like he's having less success striking people out now.

I think he got much better at k's when he got to StL. (6.3 v 7.3)

His K total struck me as low.....but it looks like it's an innings issue, not a K issue, you are correct.

PuffyPig
06-13-2011, 02:08 PM
What about Danny Dorn, Carlos Fisher, and PTBNL for Ludwick

Why not name the PTBNL?

I'm not sure why anyone would even put a PTBNL in a trade proposal?

jojo
06-13-2011, 02:20 PM
Why not name the PTBNL?

By definition, he is to be named later! ;)

Brutus
06-13-2011, 02:56 PM
Why not name the PTBNL?

I'm not sure why anyone would even put a PTBNL in a trade proposal?

I've often wondered that myself.

The only reason MLB teams even use it is because they can't come to an agreement on a player, want to evaluate a few guys that may have been injured or are trying to skirt the 1-year requisite time period before a drafted player can be traded.

So yeah, with trade proposals by fans on a message board, I don't get why a PTBNL is used.

traderumor
06-13-2011, 03:14 PM
You are correct that the BRM had much better pitching than people give them credit for, thanks for pointing that out. :)

But at that time, pitching was a bigger need than their offense. Their only competition were the Dodgers and the Dodgers had a much better pitching staff, and a similar offense at that time, both were near the top of the league. The Reds had much more room to improve in the pitching department. Every Dodger starter that year had an ERA either at 3 or well below, while only two Reds starters were around 3, the rest much closer to 4. The only hole they had offensively was 3B.

So it was a similar situation to now. The Reds now have a top offense with just two holes, but room for improvement in at least three starting pitching slots. Similar with the 1975 Reds, they had a very strong offense with only one hole, but room for improvement in three starting pitching slots.

The main point being that the 1975 Reds showed that it doesn't matter where you improve your production, as long as you improve it.There were park effects then, there are park effects now. The Dodgers "superior" pitching was in part a product of Dodger Stadium. We are also talking about two different pitching staff management styles. Alston rode his starters, Sparky was Captain Hook.

While the Reds could have used Vida Blue that they should have had, trying to say that the BRM had a greater need for pitching and went with offense is revisionist and hind-sighting. They were floundering the first few months of the season, had just lost out to the Dodgers in 1974, and Sparky couldn't live with Vuckovich at 3b. I don't know of anything written that says the Reds were deciding between more pitching and more offense and chose offense.

In fact, the reason the teams won back to back is that they finally had enough pitching. They had the BRM offense from 1968-1970 and from 1972-1977. The years they won it all were the years they had enough pitching. Guess what happened in 1977?

traderumor
06-13-2011, 03:16 PM
Why not name the PTBNL?

I'm not sure why anyone would even put a PTBNL in a trade proposal?

Should just say "some player no one will ever care about unless he becomes Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio."