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View Full Version : Five back, ninety-nine to go....



jojo
06-09-2011, 07:35 AM
As of the morning of June 9th, the Reds are 5 games back of the Cardinals with 99 games left in the season.

It's not a surprise that the Cards, Brewers and Reds are the group leading the division, but it is a bit frustrating that the Reds are the team chasing both the Cards and Brewcrew and they only lead the Pirates by half a game. Who would've thought the Ms would have a better record than the Reds at this point? That said, clearly there is alot of baseball to be played.

Five games may seem like a huge deficit to some and maybe not a big deal to others. It's just a number without some type of context that helps inform the size of the task it'll take to overcome it...

Here's the context I use- if the Cards go 50-49 the rest of the way (essentially playing .500 ball, a threshold that they certainly are capable of surpassing), the Reds would have to go 55-44 the rest of the way to tie (.556 ball).

Going into the season, I thought the Reds were likely an 85-86 win true talent team (.525-.530 ball) based upon the 2011 projection thread and barring injuries which would suggest they'd likely go 52-47 the rest of the way.

Being back 5 games is not an insurmountable deficit in and of itself and given the talent on their roster, there is no reason to panic or start wondering if the Reds should be sellers. But it's quickly becoming a time where the Reds need to get cranking because without additions to the roster, they're digging a hole that will be very difficult to climb out of IMHO....

Shortstop, left field, and the rotation are positions that could be upgraded meaningfully. Third base has been a problem but Rolen likely isn't going to be replaced IMHO. Phillips has struggled at the plate for the better part of his last 150 PAs. One would hope he'd be closer to a league average hitter going forward so that should improve.

But absent guys going on a tear or additions via trade, it's starting to get to a point where the Reds are going to need others to falter (i.e. their destiny may not be completely in their own hands).

Thoughts? Discussion?

oneupper
06-09-2011, 07:52 AM
A three way race complicates things. Especially as the REDS find themselves some distance behind the Brewers also. You could argue that the race is Brewer-Cards at this point and the REDS have to rally to get back IN the race.

It's going to take 90-91 wins to get in front of at least one of those two. If it's insufficient for the division, that level of wins could be good enough for the wild card.
Fewer than that is going to fall short on both counts, IMO.

jojo
06-09-2011, 08:32 AM
A three way race complicates things. Especially as the REDS find themselves some distance behind the Brewers also. You could argue that the race is Brewer-Cards at this point and the REDS have to rally to get back IN the race.

It's going to take 90-91 wins to get in front of at least one of those two. If it's insufficient for the division, that level of wins could be good enough for the wild card.
Fewer than that is going to fall short on both counts, IMO.

If my math is correct, 91 wins would mean the Reds have to go 59-40 the rest of the way.... That's a slim margin for error.

oneupper
06-09-2011, 08:50 AM
If my math is correct, 91 wins would mean the Reds have to go 59-40 the rest of the way.... That's a slim margin for error.

I know. But if you look back, the WC is usually around 88-92 wins. There have been a few division champs with poor records, but I don't see that happening in the Central this year because the Cubs and Astros are so weak and everyone else is going to rack up wins against them.

757690
06-09-2011, 09:01 AM
The Reds pick up one game a week and they are in first place by the All-Star break.

The Brewers and Cardinals picked up around 5 games in 10 days last month.

One winning steak, and the Reds could be 5 games in front.

The Reds need to go 19 games over .500 the rest of the way to win 90 games. If they win one more game than they lose every week, they are almost there.

The Reds could also end up 20 games below .500 in last place. There's plenty of time for both scenarios to take place.

Most importantly, the Reds clearly have the talent to go on tear and run away with the division.

OesterPoster
06-09-2011, 09:10 AM
Brewers are horrendous on the road, so let's look at their remaining road schedule.

Other than some gimme games in Chicago, Houston, etc...they have 3 in Boston next week, 3 more at the Yankees this month, and then the killer stretch for them in July. 11 games in 11 days, at Colorado, at Arizona, and at San Fran. Their road schedule in August and September eases quite a bit with mostly games within the division and the Mets.

So if the Brewers manage to get through that rough stretch in July, I like their chances to win the division. If not, then it's up to the Cards and Reds.

jojo
06-09-2011, 09:20 AM
The Reds pick up one game a week and they are in first place by the All-Star break.

The Brewers and Cardinals picked up around 5 games in 10 days last month.

One winning steak, and the Reds could be 5 games in front.

The Reds need to go 19 games over .500 the rest of the way to win 90 games. If they win one more game than they lose every week, they are almost there.

The Reds could also end up 20 games below .500 in last place. There's plenty of time for both scenarios to take place.

Most importantly, the Reds clearly have the talent to go on tear and run away with the division.

The Reds have a pretty tough schedule in the next month that doesn't really give them a breather until the end of July. If they play .595 ball (i.e. like a team playing 59-40 like ball) over the next 5 weeks, they certainly will have earned it...

lollipopcurve
06-09-2011, 09:25 AM
Going to be tough. The Reds could easily find themselves close to 10 games back after this road trip.

HokieRed
06-09-2011, 09:34 AM
Given the schedule, I think we'll have a great deal greater clarity on these matters after the next 7 games, 4 at SF, 3 at LA--and then, most certainly, after the next 13--which includes coming back home for three with the Jays and three with the Yankees. It seems to me they have to do no worse than .500 over this stretch, which will take some doing. Given the difficulty of this stretch, it would be a good gamble, IMO, to make a move right now--if a semi-reasonable one can be made. Maybe try to get a little jump start from a move for Ludwick and promotion of Cozart to play SS. I agree with Jojo that a move's unlikely at 3b and, frankly, as long as Cairo can do about .750 there in Rolen's stead, making a move there seems less compelling. At this point in the season, the pitching available is unlikely to make much of a difference.

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 09:46 AM
The Reds pick up one game a week and they are in first place by the All-Star break.

The Brewers and Cardinals picked up around 5 games in 10 days last month.

One winning steak, and the Reds could be 5 games in front.

The Reds need to go 19 games over .500 the rest of the way to win 90 games. If they win one more game than they lose every week, they are almost there.

The Reds could also end up 20 games below .500 in last place. There's plenty of time for both scenarios to take place.

Most importantly, the Reds clearly have the talent to go on tear and run away with the division.

Yes, it is kind of meaningless to try and break it down by numbers right now.

MikeThierry
06-09-2011, 10:17 AM
I actually think the Wild Card will come from this division so even if the Reds do not eclipse the Brewers or Cards, there is a good chance they can compete for the Wild Card.

jojo
06-09-2011, 10:50 AM
Yes, it is kind of meaningless to try and break it down by numbers right now.

Actually is pretty meaningful and one would hope the FO is doing their calculus.

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 11:02 AM
Actually is pretty meaningful and one would hope the FO is doing their calculus.

Trying to guesstimate how many wins your team will need by using a complete guess on how many other teams you are competing with will have going fwd is kind of ridiculous.

Just win as many as possible.

lollipopcurve
06-09-2011, 11:11 AM
But absent guys going on a tear or additions via trade, it's starting to get to a point where the Reds are going to need others to falter (i.e. their destiny may not be completely in their own hands).


Their destiny is in their own hands. Players can play better. Players can be acquired. They can beat up on the Cards and Brewers when they play them.

Do they have a tough road? Absolutely. Will only an extended period of their own great play or another team's lousy play save them? No. Does everyone know that if current trends keep up they will find themselves in that situation? Yes, we know that already.

Hoosier Red
06-09-2011, 11:15 AM
The Reds pick up one game a week and they are in first place by the All-Star break.

The Brewers and Cardinals picked up around 5 games in 10 days last month.

One winning steak, and the Reds could be 5 games in front.

The Reds need to go 19 games over .500 the rest of the way to win 90 games. If they win one more game than they lose every week, they are almost there.

The Reds could also end up 20 games below .500 in last place. There's plenty of time for both scenarios to take place.

Most importantly, the Reds clearly have the talent to go on tear and run away with the division.

I think there's good news and bad news in that analysis. The Reds/Brewers/Cards have played pretty much the same except for a 10 day stretch in which the Brewers and Cards picked up 5 games on the Reds.

To me this means the Reds simply need a string of winning baseball, a run where they go 8-2 over one 10 game stretch and 7-3 over another. If they did that, in the next 20 games for instance, they'd be 47-36 and likely be in the lead or near it.
That also would change the algebra of getting to 90 wins substantially. At that point, they'd have to play .544(43-36) ball to get to 90 wins which seems like less of a mountain.

IMO, the Reds have played their worst stretch of baseball over the last 30 days. They may not win enough to get back to the top, but I definitely think they have a run of really good baseball in them.

jojo
06-09-2011, 11:24 AM
Trying to guesstimate how many wins your team will need by using a complete guess on how many other teams you are competing with will have going fwd is kind of ridiculous.

Just win as many as possible.

"Just win baby" is not nearly as useful as we estimate our biggest threat has the talent to win X, we think we have the talent to win Y and given where we are right now and how much of the season is left, we might need to perform Z better".

I'd suggest the just win as many as possible approach is the one less compelling just intuitively from a decision making standpoint because it informs nothing.

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 11:30 AM
"Just win baby" is not nearly as useful as we estimate our biggest threat has the talent to win X, we think we have the talent to win Y and given where we are right now and how much of the season is left, we might need to perform Z better".

I'd suggest the just win as many as possible approach is the one less compelling just intuitively from a decision making standpoint because it informs nothing.

How accurate will our estimations be? Then add in that we have no idea who will get injured, who will be acquired, who will be traded, etc etc etc.

lollipopcurve
06-09-2011, 11:30 AM
"Just win baby" is not nearly as useful as we estimate our biggest threat has the talent to win X, we think we have the talent to win Y and given where we are right now and how much of the season is left, we might need to perform Z better".

I'd suggest the just win as many as possible approach is the one less compelling just intuitively from a decision making standpoint because it informs nothing.

There are way, way too many variables still at play between now and the trade deadline to make any kind of statistical calculation about whether the team should "go for it," "stand pat" or "give up." Who's available in trade? What kinds of offers for your talent are out there? What will your competitors do to improve? None of that is clear now, and won't be clear for several weeks, and by that time the standings and the health of rosters might tell another story altogether.

A lot of this is ambulance chasing.

The Voice of IH
06-09-2011, 11:31 AM
The question with this thread is, "Have the Reds played their best baseball?"

To me, I can totally see this team going on a huge win streak at anytime. I am one where I think the Reds are coasting. They just need to reel off a good stretch, get within two games and make it a race.

HokieRed
06-09-2011, 12:17 PM
Dreaming about possible winning streaks and exhorting the team to win all it can are nice, but I think we do need a rough seat-of-the-pants calculation about possibilities, and we need it either now or pdq. I see us as a .500 team which, had every thing broken right, might have won 90. But things have not broken well at all. If we're going to contend this year, I think it would be a good gamble to do something right now--not a really risky deal (which I don't think you can make yet anyway), but at least maybe an equation-changer, momentum-starter. That's why I kind of like the idea of going for Ludwick (or alternatively, of trying Alonso in LF for a week). We've got 13 tough games immediately ahead; if we do no better than 7-6 in those (which is probably a stretch), we're going to be having this conversation about 5 back (at least) and 86 to go.

lollipopcurve
06-09-2011, 12:26 PM
If we're going to contend this year, I think it would be a good gamble to do something right now--not a really risky deal (which I don't think you can make yet anyway), but at least maybe an equation-changer, momentum-starter. That's why I kind of like the idea of going for Ludwick (or alternatively, of trying Alonso in LF for a week).

Agreed. If the right kind of deal presents itself now, it's a good time to do it, given the tough stretch ahead.

mdccclxix
06-09-2011, 12:42 PM
I just heard a writer from Milwaukee on the radio out here (M's fans are panting for Fielder) talk about the reason they draw 3+ million there is because ownership goes all in, trading all of their top prospects to try to contend. The fans love it. Now, I'm not sure that's the biggest reason for an attendance boost. Nor does that sound remotely like the plan in Cincinnati where we'd rather have cost certainty. Hopefully we can wait out this Milwaukee surge over this year, then drop out Fielder and next year, then drop out Greinke, etc...yet our own timeline constricts us. Votto's gone in 2 years...the market sure picked a good time of being bare of top talent in pitching.

As far as winning streaks, anything can happen, but this team feels like a 6-7 game winning streak is it's peak. I guess a 25-5 streak is doable, I'd love to see that. Oh how my general mood would improve...

bucksfan2
06-09-2011, 03:36 PM
"Just win baby" is not nearly as useful as we estimate our biggest threat has the talent to win X, we think we have the talent to win Y and given where we are right now and how much of the season is left, we might need to perform Z better".

I'd suggest the just win as many as possible approach is the one less compelling just intuitively from a decision making standpoint because it informs nothing.

Na I think just win baby pretty apt saying. You can only control what you do. What happens with the other teams in your division is outside of your control.

As the season progresses teams face all kind of obstacles. Its convenient to say that the Cards have the talent to win X games but the reality is you just don't know. You don't know healthy wise, or pitching wise, or schedule wise how a team will do in the future.

As a fan I have always liked the approach of focusing on winning series. You win series then all of a sudden 5-4 home stands become 6-3 home stands, 5-5 road trips become 6-4 trips.

jojo
06-09-2011, 05:57 PM
Na I think just win baby pretty apt saying. You can only control what you do. What happens with the other teams in your division is outside of your control.

As the season progresses teams face all kind of obstacles. Its convenient to say that the Cards have the talent to win X games but the reality is you just don't know. You don't know healthy wise, or pitching wise, or schedule wise how a team will do in the future.

As a fan I have always liked the approach of focusing on winning series. You win series then all of a sudden 5-4 home stands become 6-3 home stands, 5-5 road trips become 6-4 trips.

The approach I'm suggesting is not unlike that of an established restaurant. While one can never know how many people will walk in the door on a given night, the chef can estimate relatively accurately based upon experience and the recent trends (like projection systems in baseball for instance), predict the amount of food they'd likely need, and then make sure the kitchen has enough ingredients to make it....

The restaurants that do this best tend to be more successful while the ones that don't do this tend to go out of business...

I don't buy the argument that baseball teams can't evaluate their talent level relative to other teams in their division and estimate their odds of making the playoffs. In fact, that's the very core of what a FO does when roster building whether they verbalize it that way or not.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-09-2011, 06:48 PM
I just heard a writer from Milwaukee on the radio out here (M's fans are panting for Fielder) talk about the reason they draw 3+ million there is because ownership goes all in, trading all of their top prospects to try to contend. The fans love it. Now, I'm not sure that's the biggest reason for an attendance boost. Nor does that sound remotely like the plan in Cincinnati where we'd rather have cost certainty. Hopefully we can wait out this Milwaukee surge over this year, then drop out Fielder and next year, then drop out Greinke, etc...yet our own timeline constricts us. Votto's gone in 2 years...the market sure picked a good time of being bare of top talent in pitching.

As far as winning streaks, anything can happen, but this team feels like a 6-7 game winning streak is it's peak. I guess a 25-5 streak is doable, I'd love to see that. Oh how my general mood would improve...

I think every Reds fan would do backflips on Fountain Square for a 6-7 game win streak. I'd settle for three straight right now.

RedsManRick
06-09-2011, 08:17 PM
Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds has the Reds at 10.6% with roughly equal odds of Division and Wild Card. From a true-talent perspective, I think it's essentially a dead heat between the top 3 teams and the expected W-L has us within 3 games. BP's simulations disagree pretty strongly, projecting the Cards for 91 wins, the Brewers for 87.5 and the Reds for 82.

What could be a differentiator, unfortunately, is interleague schedule. Looking ahead, here is the aggregate record of each team's coming AL opponents:

Cards (KC, TOR, BAL, TB): 120-126, .488 (projected 6-6 against a neutral opponent)
Brewers (BOS, TB, MIN, NYY, MIN): 147-157, .484 (projected 7-8)
Reds: (TOR, NYY, BAL, TB, CLE): 156-147, .515 (projected 8-7)

Ok, nevermind. If their current records are accurate representations of their ability when each team plays one and other, then the Reds are basically at a 1 game disadvantage. Not cool, but hardly something to get too worked up about.

I do find this interesting. Here are the teams' runs above replacement for hitting, pitching and defense so far.


RAR RAR UZR Total
Cards 138 60 1 199
Brewers 96 62 1 159
Reds 126 22 23 171

In terms of projection, I think the Cards have over-performed slightly to date, most notably offensively. The Brewers have been about as expected, while the Reds have under-performed, most notably in pitching. If I had to guess, I'd say whichever team stays the healthiest is gonna win this thing.

traderumor
06-09-2011, 08:56 PM
The approach I'm suggesting is not unlike that of an established restaurant. While one can never know how many people will walk in the door on a given night, the chef can estimate relatively accurately based upon experience and the recent trends (like projection systems in baseball for instance), predict the amount of food they'd likely need, and then make sure the kitchen has enough ingredients to make it....

The restaurants that do this best tend to be more successful while the ones that don't do this tend to go out of business...

I don't buy the argument that baseball teams can't evaluate their talent level relative to other teams in their division and estimate their odds of making the playoffs. In fact, that's the very core of what a FO does when roster building whether they verbalize it that way or not.Yea, but you're only half-way there. The next step is "what can we do about it?" It's one thing to evaluate, another altogether to find workable solutions. Of course teams evaluate in this simplistic manner, but that doesn't necessarily lead to action. Sometimes you're left with only the date you brought and have to hope for the best, or you decide she's pretty enough to get the job done and stick with her. You know, better the devil that you know.

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 09:20 PM
The approach I'm suggesting is not unlike that of an established restaurant. While one can never know how many people will walk in the door on a given night, the chef can estimate relatively accurately based upon experience and the recent trends (like projection systems in baseball for instance), predict the amount of food they'd likely need, and then make sure the kitchen has enough ingredients to make it....

The restaurants that do this best tend to be more successful while the ones that don't do this tend to go out of business...

I don't buy the argument that baseball teams can't evaluate their talent level relative to other teams in their division and estimate their odds of making the playoffs. In fact, that's the very core of what a FO does when roster building whether they verbalize it that way or not.

I think it is obvious that all teams evaluate their talent levels and ballpark their odds of making the playoffs. It's another thing all together to think that teams try and get it down to a specific game level and act like they will be able to quantify the rest of the season.

jojo
06-09-2011, 09:22 PM
I think it is obvious that all teams evaluate their talent levels and ballpark their odds of making the playoffs. It's another thing all together to think that teams try and get it down to a specific game level and act like they will be able to quantify the rest of the season.

Yet we know that there are teams that do exactly that.

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 09:25 PM
Yet we know that there are teams that do exactly that.

I've seen teams do a bunch of things that don't make sense.

jojo
06-09-2011, 09:31 PM
I've seen teams do a bunch of things that don't make sense.

Would you argue that Boston and Tampa epitomize such teams?

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 09:35 PM
Would you argue that Boston and Tampa epitomize such teams?

I would argue that they have/had a ton of other things working in their favor that are more vital to their successes. If Theo didn't sit down and try and predict the season, I think he'd still do ok.

jojo
06-09-2011, 09:49 PM
I would argue that they have/had a ton of other things working in their favor that are more vital to their successes. If Theo didn't sit down and try and predict the season, I think he'd still do ok.

So in other words you got nuthin.

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 09:58 PM
So in other words you got nuthin.

Being that I've never read anything on the topic except what you are describing, yes. I'd love to read something if you can provide it.

jojo
06-09-2011, 10:00 PM
Being that I've never read anything on the topic except what you are describing, yes. I'd love to read something if you can provide it.

Google away...both FO's are very sabermetric.

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 10:01 PM
Google away...both FO's are very sabermetric.

I know that. But that doesn't mean they do what you are saying.

jojo
06-09-2011, 10:03 PM
I know that. But that doesn't mean they do what you are saying.

You're kidding right? You're seriously suggesting they don't project their talent and use that to determine their playoff changes and to color their roster building?

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 10:19 PM
You're kidding right? You're seriously suggesting they don't project their talent and use that to determine their playoff changes and to color their roster building?

You have gone from doing this midseason this:


we estimate our biggest threat has the talent to win X, we think we have the talent to win Y and given where we are right now and how much of the season is left, we might need to perform Z better".

to this


You're seriously suggesting they don't project their talent and use that to determine their playoff changes and to color their roster building?

There is a gap in between. I don't think that Friedman is sitting in his office, calculating what Boston and the NYY are going to do the rest of the season to the game, trying to predict what the Rays are going to do the rest of the season and then figure out how to close the gap (if there is one).

But maybe he is. I don't know what he is doing. However, I think that he is wasting his time if he is actually going through that.

Ghosts of 1990
06-09-2011, 10:23 PM
Something that has me thinking positive (or is simply tiding me over while we chase the central) we're 3 and 1/2 back of the Wild card right now. Granted, we have a few teams to leap frog. But there's no written rule that says the WC can't come out of the NL Central this year. I think it very well might, and I think it could be us. If that's the easier door to enter this year, I'm all for it. For now, I'm watching the wild card standings. When we rip off a 7-3 run and the Cards go 4-6, I'll look at the central standings again.

jojo
06-09-2011, 10:25 PM
I don't know what he is doing. However, I think that he is wasting his time if he is actually going through that.

You've also argued loudly in favor of Gomes several seasons in a row in the face of estimates of his true talent.

edabbs44
06-09-2011, 10:35 PM
You've also argued loudly in favor of Gomes several seasons in a row in the face of estimates of his true talent.

I've also seen Epstein trade Arroyo for WMP and give tons of money to the likes of Matt Clement, Julio Lugo and JD Drew. I've also seen Andrew Friedman give nice sized contracts to Pat Burrell and Troy Percival and draft Tim Beckham over Buster Posey. I wonder what calculations told them to make those moves.

Getting back to me, I have argued mostly for Gomes versus what we had/have in house. And I really haven't seen anyone step up and prove me wrong.

jojo
06-09-2011, 11:00 PM
I've also seen Epstein trade Arroyo for WMP and give tons of money to the likes of Matt Clement, Julio Lugo and JD Drew. I've also seen Andrew Friedman give nice sized contracts to Pat Burrell and Troy Percival and draft Tim Beckham over Buster Posey. I wonder what calculations told them to make those moves.

Getting back to me, I have argued mostly for Gomes versus what we had/have in house. And I really haven't seen anyone step up and prove me wrong.

You've also seen their teams win lots of games, make the playoffs and play in the world series.....

Regarding Gomes, you wouldn't argue with the notion hat he is not a legitimate major league starter?

bucksfan2
06-09-2011, 11:28 PM
You've also seen their teams win lots of games, make the playoffs and play in the world series.....

Regarding Gomes, you wouldn't argue with the notion hat he is not a legitimate major league starter?

The Red Sox may be very saber friendly but they also have a 150M payroll. You give me a 150M payroll and I would imagine I could put together a competitive team.

The Rays rise pretty much coincided with a plethora of high draft picks. They have made some good decisions but lets not overlook the fact that they built their team with top 5 pick after top 5 pick.

I just don't fully buy the projecting that you are suggesting. The Reds could win their next 5 games and reset the standing all together. Heck we could revisit the standings in 10 days and the Reds could be in 1st place and the tone would be completely different.

Tony Cloninger
06-09-2011, 11:48 PM
The Red Sox may be very saber friendly but they also have a 150M payroll. You give me a 150M payroll and I would imagine I could put together a competitive team.

The Rays rise pretty much coincided with a plethora of high draft picks. They have made some good decisions but lets not overlook the fact that they built their team with top 5 pick after top 5 pick.

I just don't fully buy the projecting that you are suggesting. The Reds could win their next 5 games and reset the standing all together. Heck we could revisit the standings in 10 days and the Reds could be in 1st place and the tone would be completely different.


You got that right. With a 150M payroll a team could use a Wee-jee board and probably do better or predict a better outcome than one who can barely get their payroll up to 75-80M. The only thing you cannot predict/control is injuries.

reds44
06-10-2011, 02:13 AM
The Reds best ball is in front of them.

MikeThierry
06-10-2011, 04:27 AM
Right now is a prime opportunity for the Reds to make up ground, particularly on the Cards. When Matt Holliday comes off the DL, the Cards will be essentially a month without him. Now, it is crazy that they are still winning with him out of the lineup, but the Cards offense has been inconsistent without him. They are dealing with a ton of injuries and this might make them a .500 team until the All Star Break. That said, once July rolls around, they will be getting many of their injured players back, particularly Holliday and David Freese. Once they get those players back, they will certainly be a more difficult team to beat.

If the Reds can go on a nice long winning binge in June, they could catch up with the Cards.

Ron Madden
06-10-2011, 04:44 AM
The Red Sox may be very saber friendly but they also have a 150M payroll. You give me a 150M payroll and I would imagine I could put together a competitive team.
The Rays rise pretty much coincided with a plethora of high draft picks. They have made some good decisions but lets not overlook the fact that they built their team with top 5 pick after top 5 pick.

I just don't fully buy the projecting that you are suggesting. The Reds could win their next 5 games and reset the standing all together. Heck we could revisit the standings in 10 days and the Reds could be in 1st place and the tone would be completely different.

Yeah, I bet it would resemble The Cubs more than the Red Sox. ;)

Ron Madden
06-10-2011, 04:48 AM
You got that right. With a 150M payroll a team could use a Wee-jee board and probably do better or predict a better outcome than one who can barely get their payroll up to 75-80M. The only thing you cannot predict/control is injuries.

It's not how much you spend. It's how you spend it. ;)

GAC
06-10-2011, 05:23 AM
I think it's hilarious how we've basically dominated the two teams ahead of us this year in head-to-head, and the team trailing us (Pirates) have kicked our butts so far. That's baseball though.

IMO, if Volquez and Bailey don't pitch effectively for us the rest of the year it will be an uphill battle. We need these guys. Our starting pitching, for the most part, is what has hurt us bad.

edabbs44
06-10-2011, 08:04 AM
You've also seen their teams win lots of games, make the playoffs and play in the world series.....

Regarding Gomes, you wouldn't argue with the notion hat he is not a legitimate major league starter?

I would argue that he is a legit starter for the Cincinnati Reds and other teams in baseball, taking everything into consideration. In a perfect world, he wouldnt be a starter for me. But that is without taking things into account like payroll, availability, etc. Gomes vs Braun? Braun. Gomes vs Dickerson, Heisey, Nix, etc? Much different discussion.

And regarding the Rays and Sox, just because they have had success doesn't mean everything they do works. Wade Boggs ate fried chicken before every game. Should every player do that?

If it works for them and makes them think that it helps them win, then more power to them. But I would be intrigued to see real life examples of Theo estimating the rest of the division in June and coming up with his assessment based on that estimation, what he did based on that projection an then see how it played out.

edabbs44
06-10-2011, 08:06 AM
The Reds best ball is in front of them.

Agreed.

HokieRed
06-10-2011, 09:15 AM
Good start on the 99 last night. Would that we had 5 Cuetos.

jojo
06-10-2011, 11:27 AM
I would argue that he is a legit starter for the Cincinnati Reds and other teams in baseball, taking everything into consideration. In a perfect world, he wouldnt be a starter for me. But that is without taking things into account like payroll, availability, etc. Gomes vs Braun? Braun. Gomes vs Dickerson, Heisey, Nix, etc? Much different discussion.

As a Red, Gomes has had a wOBA=.337 and a glove worth -22 runs. Normalized for what would be considered a starter's amount of playing time (600 PA's, roughly 1200-1300 defensive innings), he has been almost exactly a replacement level player (bat= +3.65 runs, glove=-16.2 runs, difference between replacement and average=+20 runs, position adjust=-7.5 runs).

Dickerson, Heisey, Nix etc are all upgrades. Gomes can essentially be replaced freely.

That simply is not the production of a legitimate starter.


And regarding the Rays and Sox, just because they have had success doesn't mean everything they do works. Wade Boggs ate fried chicken before every game. Should every player do that?

The point you keep obfuscating is a straightforward one. How can a GM make a good decision if he has no context in which to inform it?

Are the Reds good enough to make the playoffs if they stand pat? Well, if the win they are.... Not only isnt that edifying, there isn't a single FO in baseball that applies that strategy....

edabbs44
06-10-2011, 12:44 PM
The point you keep obfuscating is a straightforward one. How can a GM make a good decision if he has no context in which to inform it?

Are the Reds good enough to make the playoffs if they stand pat? Well, if the win they are.... Not only isnt that edifying, there isn't a single FO in baseball that applies that strategy....

A GM can make a good decision w/o the overanalyzing of certain things. Jocketty went out and made a buyer's move in 2008 when the world thought he should be selling. Gave up a young arm to do it. Did he whip out the pie charts, slide rules and spreadsheets to make the decision to do that? Doubtful.

And believe me, I understand what you are saying. Of course all FOs look at their current situation and make educated decisions based upon where they are and where they think they will be. They have to. But I don't think it is mandatory to try and guess how many wins they will have from here on out, how many the Cards and Brewers will have, and then look to try and determine which players are worth the difference in amt of wins from here on out and try and acquire them. More likely they say "We need an upgrade in LF, this LFer is available, he is/isn't an upgrade, we can/cannot afford him and his asking price is/isn't reasonable."

The process you are describing, if true, is a total jamming of a square sabermetric peg in a round hole.

jojo
06-10-2011, 12:46 PM
And believe me, I understand what you are saying. Of course all FOs look at their current situation and make educated decisions based upon where they are and where they think they will be. They have to.

Then why the argument again?

edabbs44
06-10-2011, 01:06 PM
Then why the argument again?

I think the gap is me thinking there isn't a need to try and quantify projections in order to make decisions at this stage.

MikeThierry
06-10-2011, 07:27 PM
Wade Boggs ate fried chicken before every game. Should every player do that?

Yes... it worked for Babe Ruth :)

WebScorpion
06-15-2011, 02:42 AM
How about 2.5 back after clinching a winning west coast trip and 93 to go? ;) I think they can feel us breathing down their necks. Just win baby!

reds1869
06-15-2011, 02:46 AM
How about 2.5 back after clinching a winning west coast trip and 93 to go? ;) I think they can feel us breathing down their necks. Just win baby!

Yes indeed. A sweep tomorrow would be the perfect way to finish the road trip. Remember when we used to dread watching these west coast swings? Things have changed in that department.

fearofpopvol1
06-15-2011, 03:21 AM
Making up 2.5 games that quickly is pretty awesome. Let's hope the winning continues for the Reds and the losing for the Cards and the Brewers.

Hoosier Red
06-15-2011, 10:56 AM
Something to consider. The Brewers lost back to back games for the first time in 36 games yesterday. I looked at the 34 games that preceded their two game losing streak and the Brewers went 25 and 9 from May 7th through June 12th. That's a long stretch of playing really good baseball.
That shows two things, 1) The Brewers are capable of playing really good baseball, 2) They did all of that and still were just a 1/2 game up on the Cardinals and 4 1/2 up on the Reds.

I think we're in a fight for the division, but I don't expect the Brewers to win games at a 74% clip for the duration.

traderumor
06-15-2011, 10:59 AM
Something to consider. The Brewers lost back to back games for the first time in 36 games yesterday. I looked at the 34 games that preceded their two game losing streak and the Brewers went 25 and 9 from May 7th through June 12th. That's a long stretch of playing really good baseball.
That shows two things, 1) The Brewers are capable of playing really good baseball, 2) They did all of that and still were just a 1/2 game up on the Cardinals and 4 1/2 up on the Reds.

I think we're in a fight for the division, but I don't expect the Brewers to win games at a 74% clip for the duration.lot of home games. Get 'em on the road and they are a below average squad, at least so far that's been the story. If not for the sweep of a crash-and-burn in process in South Florida, they really have an ugly road record, as evidenced by losing two in a row on the road to the Cubs.

jojo
06-15-2011, 11:04 AM
Something to consider. The Brewers lost back to back games for the first time in 36 games yesterday. I looked at the 34 games that preceded their two game losing streak and the Brewers went 25 and 9 from May 7th through June 12th. That's a long stretch of playing really good baseball.
That shows two things, 1) The Brewers are capable of playing really good baseball, 2) They did all of that and still were just a 1/2 game up on the Cardinals and 4 1/2 up on the Reds.

I think we're in a fight for the division, but I don't expect the Brewers to win games at a 74% clip for the duration.

Out of the Reds, Cards, and Brewers, I think the Brewers have the best shot of breaking away from the pack. But if the Reds have some guys step up in their rotation, they will be a force because their offense and defense are solid.

traderumor
06-15-2011, 03:25 PM
Out of the Reds, Cards, and Brewers, I think the Brewers have the best shot of breaking away from the pack. But if the Reds have some guys step up in their rotation, they will be a force because their offense and defense are solid.I think the pythag says it all. We have 3 pretty even teams here, it appears, and unless there is a dramatic change in performances the rest of the way, I think we have a 3 horse race on our hands.

But, for fun going the opposite direction, I still see the Cards the most likely to crash and burn due to some unsustainable early season performances and a bullpen that is likely to be irrepairable this season. I also think their DL will continue to be a revolving door due to the "mature" makeup of their team.

The Voice of IH
06-16-2011, 06:01 PM
The question with this thread is, "Have the Reds played their best baseball?"

To me, I can totally see this team going on a huge win streak at anytime. I am one where I think the Reds are coasting. They just need to reel off a good stretch, get within two games and make it a race.

Hey Look!
WE ARE IN THE RACE!!!

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

fearofpopvol1
06-16-2011, 08:16 PM
After a Brew Crew loss today, even if the Cards win tonight, the Reds will be 2 games back going into play tomorrow no matter what. Having made up 3 games (while on the road no less) in such a short time period is huge. Hopefully they can keep it going. Should be a fun summer.

traderumor
06-16-2011, 09:13 PM
This has been a bizarro year so far for the Reds. Exorcising some demons on West Coast trips, sweeping the Cards--but getting abused by the Pirates and swept by the Indians. The only constants have been dominating the Cubs, Brewers, and Astros.

Ron Madden
06-17-2011, 05:10 AM
Hey Look!
WE ARE IN THE RACE!!!

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

I just wish we would have made some hay in April and May, when the getting was good.

Tony Cloninger
06-17-2011, 12:33 PM
Why is everybody so worried about teams like Toronto and Cleveland? Toronto has not been that great, I do not care if they play in the big bad AL East. They are not a reason to fret over and neither is Cleveland. Have you seen how bad they have been playing?

The Yankees have Nova and that new 32 year old phenom going against the Reds ....if the rotation remains the same. Baltimore? You are that worried about them? Even Tampa Bay has holes in the their hitting. They are one of the worst AL hitting teams I have seen since before 1993.

The way the Reds are playing there should not be any reason not to think 2 out of 3 in every single one of these series, if not an outright sweep of Cleveland and Baltimore.

The Voice of IH
06-17-2011, 01:59 PM
Why is everybody so worried about teams like Toronto and Cleveland? Toronto has not been that great, I do not care if they play in the big bad AL East. They are not a reason to fret over and neither is Cleveland. Have you seen how bad they have been playing?

The Yankees have Nova and that new 32 year old phenom going against the Reds ....if the rotation remains the same. Baltimore? You are that worried about them? Even Tampa Bay has holes in the their hitting. They are one of the worst AL hitting teams I have seen since before 1993.

The way the Reds are playing there should not be any reason not to think 2 out of 3 in every single one of these series, if not an outright sweep of Cleveland and Baltimore.

Smartest post ever!

Tony Cloninger
06-17-2011, 11:38 PM
And now I look like a fool. The 2 best hitters in TOR lineup beat Leake.....while a barely average starter limits this team to 2 runs.

What's the excuse now? Hangover from the WC trip? Tired of excuses and tough schedule BS..... this team seems incapable of sustaining anything.

CrackerJack
06-17-2011, 11:56 PM
And now I look like a fool. The 2 best hitters in TOR lineup beat Leake.....while a barely average starter limits this team to 2 runs.

What's the excuse now? Hangover from the WC trip? Tired of excuses and tough schedule BS..... this team seems incapable of sustaining anything.

If Jay Bruce were as good as Votto, they'd be in business.

Reds Freak
06-17-2011, 11:56 PM
And now I look like a fool. The 2 best hitters in TOR lineup beat Leake.....while a barely average starter limits this team to 2 runs.

What's the excuse now? Hangover from the WC trip? Tired of excuses and tough schedule BS..... this team seems incapable of sustaining anything.

Umm...did you expect them to go undefeated the rest of the year?

CrackerJack
06-18-2011, 12:50 AM
Umm...did you expect them to go undefeated the rest of the year?

They've scored 3 runs or less in nearly half their games this season, yet that doesn't deserve any sort of attention? They need a couple of guys who can drive-in runs more often.

reds44
06-18-2011, 12:54 AM
Tough to score out west.

Tony Cloninger
06-18-2011, 12:55 AM
Umm...did you expect them to go undefeated the rest of the year?

I expect them to and think they can go 14-7 in these next round of "tough" "brutal schedule" games that everyone keeps talking about. Maybe I overrate them or I dare to dream the impossible dream of a team that can do more than just hang around. I think the inertia that Walt has shown with the non pitchers...in making moves is perplexing.

jojo
06-18-2011, 08:22 AM
And now I look like a fool. The 2 best hitters in TOR lineup beat Leake.....while a barely average starter limits this team to 2 runs.

What's the excuse now? Hangover from the WC trip? Tired of excuses and tough schedule BS..... this team seems incapable of sustaining anything.

the baseball season is supposed to be a marathon, not a tennis match.... :laugh:

traderumor
06-18-2011, 12:35 PM
I expect them to and think they can go 14-7 in these next round of "tough" "brutal schedule" games that everyone keeps talking about. Maybe I overrate them or I dare to dream the impossible dream of a team that can do more than just hang around. I think the inertia that Walt has shown with the non pitchers...in making moves is perplexing.So, you spotted them 7 losses. Don't lose heart on the first one. They still have 6 to burn. That's a pretty aggressive goal, I'd be happy with another .600 second half of the month.

Kc61
06-18-2011, 12:51 PM
I expect them to and think they can go 14-7 in these next round of "tough" "brutal schedule" games that everyone keeps talking about. Maybe I overrate them or I dare to dream the impossible dream of a team that can do more than just hang around. I think the inertia that Walt has shown with the non pitchers...in making moves is perplexing.

Agree that the refusal to make moves is perplexing. Reds are a pretty good team with obvious needs. Yet dating back to this past off season team has basically stood pat.

Reds are within striking distance now, only two games out, it sure would be exciting to see the team add a meaningful new piece.

I think inter league play will be tough for all the Central contenders. Just hope Reds hold their ground over the next couple of weeks. Then they play Brewers and Cards . . .

kaldaniels
06-18-2011, 01:04 PM
They've scored 3 runs or less in nearly half their games this season, yet that doesn't deserve any sort of attention? They need a couple of guys who can drive-in runs more often.

27 of 71 is nearly half? Poor use of numbers.

And the 2nd best offense in the NL, STL, is 28 of 71 in that category. Much ado...

CrackerJack
06-18-2011, 02:57 PM
27 of 71 is nearly half? Poor use of numbers.

And the 2nd best offense in the NL, STL, is 28 of 71 in that category. Much ado...

I would consider an 8 game difference out of 71 to be much, much closer to half than not...

I really don't get the ranking of offenses solely based on RS (if that's what you're referencing) when your not even half way through the season and your team is hovering around .500 all year, and you've gotten consistently excellent pitching for just over a month now. I don't see how that tells the whole story until later in the season?

(seriously just wondering why people are so quick to point out RS but no other variables - and when someone does they just reference RS - it's June 17th, it's like leaning on BA for a hitter because he was on a hot streak for a few weeks early on).

Not being sarcastic or argumentative - just wondering why it's not a concern for people at this point - not panicking just want to see the team improved sooner than later.

kaldaniels
06-18-2011, 03:05 PM
I would consider an 8 game difference out of 71 to be much, much closer to half than not...

I really don't get the ranking of offenses solely based on RS (if that's what you're referencing) when your not even half way through the season and your team is hovering around .500 all year, and you've gotten consistently excellent pitching for just over a month now. I don't see how that tells the whole story until later in the season?

(seriously just wondering why people are so quick to point out RS but no other variables - and when someone does they just reference RS - it's June 17th, it's like leaning on BA for a hitter because he was on a hot streak for a few weeks early on).

Not being sarcastic or argumentative - just wondering why it's not a concern for people at this point - not panicking just want to see the team improved sooner than later.

You brought up the point (stat) of 3 runs a game or less. Have you looked to see how the Reds rank league-wide in that category?

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 09:28 PM
Reds out of first by 2 games.

Cards Nation on pins and needles waiting for Pujols test results.

Reds/Yanks matchups:

Nova v Cueto
Gordon v Wood
Garcia v Leake

Things are looking kinda up.

Tony Cloninger
06-19-2011, 10:33 PM
Reds out of first by 2 games.

Cards Nation on pins and needles waiting for Pujols test results.

Reds/Yanks matchups:

Nova v Cueto
Gordon v Wood
Garcia v Leake

Things are looking kinda up.


Well i thought they should sweep the Jays and based on these pitching match ups I would expect the same here.....but obviously I underestimated the level of offense this team can come up with.