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View Full Version : All-Star Break Deficit.......



texasdave
06-09-2011, 10:48 AM
There seem to be two camps on this board. The season is over camp. And the don't worry the Reds will be there in September camp. The season could still go either way IMO. But the Reds need a whole bunch of things to go right from here on out. And if a little misfortune fell on St. Louis and Milwaukee in the second half of the season that's good too.

So I was just wondering how close the Reds have to be at the ASB to have a legitimate shot of being there in the end. I don't think they can fall much further behind in the standings. And from some comments I have read neither does Dusty Baker. Because expecting 2 (or possibly 3 if you feel the Pirates are for real) to fall off at the end is exponentially (I don't know what that means exactly but i always wanted to stick "exponential" into one of my posts and were the Montreal Expos short for the Montreal Exponentials?) more difficult than having the wheels come off of just one team.

Let's see what everyone thinks.

lonewolf371
06-09-2011, 02:16 PM
I know the season lasts for 162 games, but 5 games is a huge lead. You don't want to be out 5 games at the All-Star Break. I'd like to see the team cut it to 3 or less.

texasdave
06-09-2011, 02:28 PM
A 5-game lead is especially huge after only playing 65 games. At that rate a team is about 13 games out after 162. If St. Louis plays .500 ball the rest of the season (50-49) they end up with 87 wins. Cincinnati would have to go 55-44 the rest of the way to tie. Coincidentally, from this point to the end of the season in 2010 the Reds record was, you guessed it, 55-44. I figure either St. Louis or Milwaukee is going to end up with 90 wins. If that is the case the Reds will have to go 58-41 to tie. That is playing some serious baseball (almost .600) for a long time (nearly 100 games).

lonewolf371
06-09-2011, 02:34 PM
A 5-game lead is especially huge after only playing 65 games. At that rate a team is about 13 games out after 162. If St. Louis plays .500 ball the rest of the season (50-49) they end up with 87 wins. Cincinnati would have to go 55-44 the rest of the way to tie. Coincidentally, from this point to the end of the season in 2010 the Reds record was, you guessed it, 55-44. I figure either St. Louis or Milwaukee is going to end up with 90 wins. If that is the case the Reds will have to go 58-41 to tie. That is playing some serious baseball (almost .600) for a long time (nearly 100 games).
Exactly, although that's looking at a smaller sample size where fluctuations like .600 baseball are a little more common. I think the Phillies and the Giants both had similar performances in the second half of last season.

texasdave
06-09-2011, 02:39 PM
According to baseball-reference.com, after 63 games until the end of the season only one team managed a .600 or better winning percentage - Philadelphia at a remarkable .647. The Giants played well in the second half and still only managed a .566 percentage in their last 99 games.

RadfordVA
06-09-2011, 02:50 PM
Every year things change from All star break by the end of the season. There is no guarantee what will change but if history shows us anything is that there is a guarantee a lot will. Just look at the playoff teams if it had started at last years all star break.

Yankees
White Sox
Rangers
WC-Rays

Braves
Reds
Padres
WC-Dodgers

Only 2 of those spots stayed the same, being Rangers and Reds. There will be lots of shakeups between now and then. Phillies were in 3rd place in their division and Giants were in 4th. The reds may or may not be one to take advantage of this but it always makes me laugh when ppl every year say they cant see a team losing the division when there are still over half games left to be played.

texasdave
06-09-2011, 08:10 PM
To be fair only two of the spots stayed the same but five of the would-be playoff teams at the ASB were playoff teams at the end of the regular season. SF was in fourth only four games back. Philadelphia was third only 4 games back. Minnesota was in second only 3.5 games back.
Certainly not all 8 times that would be in the ASB are going to be there in the end. But I don't think you want to be 8 or 10 games back and try your luck.