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View Full Version : why the Reds should trade Ryan Hanigan



Will M
06-14-2011, 01:28 AM
Conventional wisdom is that Mes will be the Reds catcher next year with Hanigan as the 2nd catcher. Ramon will either 1) play out the year with the Reds if the team stays in contention or 2) could be dealt this year if the Reds fall back. Even though Mes is tearing up AAA folks think 'well we can't exactly trade Ramon now. even if we could get value for him he is too important to the 2011 team'. ok. how about this one? there are several teams (SF & PIttsburgh for example) that are a bit desperate for a catcher. the Reds could trade Hanigan instead of Ramon. lets assume that the trade is a decent one and we get value back that can help. Mes gets called up now and takes Hanigan's place. The super 2 deadline has likely passed so thats not a concern. The team gets an improvement (Mes > Hanigan) but gets to keep Ramon's veteran prescence for the 2011 pennant race. After the season the team can decide what to do about the 2nd catcher for 2012. If Mes looks like he is ready to play 130 games then they can get a cheap backup. If Mes seems to need a bit more help maybe they resign Ramon on the cheap. The downside to this scenario is that if Mes struggles then we lose Hanigan for 2012. I say its time to take a little more risk, think outside the box, do something a bit less super duper ultra conservative. Trading Hanigan could be a win win. A win in that we could get a nice return in the trade due to certain teams really needing help & a 2nd win in that Mes is likely better than Hanigan right now.

Ron Madden
06-14-2011, 05:32 AM
I would love to see Devon Mesoraco starting behind the plate for the Reds in 2012.

I'd also love to see Ryan Hanigan splitinng time with him as the number two catcher.

PuffyPig
06-14-2011, 08:04 AM
There is a reason why "conventional wisdom" is conventional wisdom.

Going into next season without a back up catcher in the bag is unwise.

Hannigan is, at worse, a very good back up.

No reason to throw that out the window.

Exactly what type of player would you expect to get that could help us this year?

Will M
06-14-2011, 08:47 AM
There is a reason why "conventional wisdom" is conventional wisdom.

Going into next season without a back up catcher in the bag is unwise.

Hannigan is, at worse, a very good back up.

No reason to throw that out the window.

Exactly what type of player would you expect to get that could help us this year?

I am pretty bad at predicting a player's trade value. I'd prefer a player that could help the 2011 team as opposed to a prospect. I certainly don't expect a TOR starter in return. However, maybe there is a team with an outfield surplus that needs a catcher.

Reds1
06-14-2011, 09:15 AM
I wouldn't just trade him to trade him, but catcher is a position of strenght and if it brings the right person I would probably trade him, but there is no guarantees in Mes. so there is risk to trading anyone on the big squad.

mbgrayson
06-14-2011, 09:29 AM
FWIW, Devin Mesoraco currently leads the International League (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=l_bat&lid=117&sid=t416)in OPS (.967). It will soon be time for him to come to Cincinnati and see how he does. At least a September 'cup of coffee'.

I prefer that the Reds trade Ramon Hernandez. My hunch is that the Reds think that way too, since he is on a one year contract, and Hanigan is on the first year of a three year contract.

Ryan Hanigan is 30 years old (turns 31 this August). This is currently in his fifth season with the Reds. Hanigan is earning $450 K this year, $1.2 million next year, and $2 million in 2013. Hanigan's number are down this year. He is currently hitting .258/.358/.328 for an OPS of .686. However, month by month, he has been improving, and has been much hotter in June than in April. However, to the degree that the numbers matter to other teams, he won't be as attractive as Ramon.

Ramon Hernandez is now 35 years old, and this is already his 13th season in MLB, and his 3rd year with the Reds. Ramon is earning a salary of $3 million this season, and is not under contract for next year. Ramon's numbers this year are quite good: .316/.374/.526 for an OPS of .900. His numbers make him a good 'sell high' candidate.

I think that the salary will matter to the Reds. By trading Ramon, they can afford to take on much more salary this season than they could by trading Hanigan. Ramon also has experience playing in the AL, and would be likely to make a decent adjustment to that league.

I do agree that there will be some serious reluctance to make a trade. How much value can we expect for a 35 year old catcher not under contract for next year? What will it do to 'team chemistry' to trade a well liked veteran away in the middle of the season? How important is is to have a native spanish speaker catch for Cueto, Volquez, Chapman, Cordero, etc...?

Walt will have to think carefully and make the right decision here. My guess is that he won't trade Ramon unless he gets a good offer that would really help the Reds. I don't think it is likely that we get a TOR starter. Why would any team in playoff contention trade a solid starter for a 35 year old catcher? I see us getting a LF or SS that is about the same age. Ramon to the Dodgers for Furcal? Maybe....Something like that.

However, if we keep him through 2011, offer him arbitration, and then lose him after the season, with his numbers this year he may well be a type A free agent, giving us two compensation picks next June. The top 20% of players at each positional grouping are labeled as Type A players, and if those players are free agents, they are designated "Type A Free Agents."

Homer Bailey
06-14-2011, 09:55 AM
The Reds have "too many catchers" right now (if there is such a thing).

Next year, the Reds will have the right amount of catchers. Trading Hanigan does not make much sense, in my opinion. I think he's worth more to the Reds than what the Reds will receive in return.

Kc61
06-14-2011, 10:02 AM
I'm on record as saying the Reds should start to promote AAA guys for the bench. I don't see great value from most of the Reds' bench players, and I think some of the AAA guys can make an impact.

As for Mesoraco, however, on reflection I'd probably wait for September. I wouldn't trade Hernandez or Hanigan right now.

Mes is only 22. Catching is a difficult position. I would rather let him grow at AAA for the rest of the minor league season and then get him up in Sept.

If the Reds fall out of the race, then I feel differently. But right now, let's keep the veteran guys at the major league level, let Devin keep learning at AAA, and pull the trigger when September comes around.

PuffyPig
06-14-2011, 10:37 AM
I am pretty bad at predicting a player's trade value. I'd prefer a player that could help the 2011 team as opposed to a prospect. I certainly don't expect a TOR starter in return. However, maybe there is a team with an outfield surplus that needs a catcher.


OF surplus is what we have. You won't get a better OF for Hannigan than what we have currently in the majors and minors. Do you think we'd get someone better than Alonso?

I(heart)Freel
06-14-2011, 10:47 AM
FWIW, Devin Mesoraco currently leads the International League (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=l_bat&lid=117&sid=t416)in OPS (.967). It will soon be time for him to come to Cincinnati and see how he does. At least a September 'cup of coffee'.

I prefer that the Reds trade Ramon Hernandez. My hunch is that the Reds think that way too, since he is on a one year contract, and Hanigan is on the first year of a three year contract.

Ryan Hanigan is 30 years old (turns 31 this August). This is currently in his fifth season with the Reds. Hanigan is earning $450 K this year, $1.2 million next year, and $2 million in 2013. Hanigan's number are down this year. He is currently hitting .258/.358/.328 for an OPS of .686. However, month by month, he has been improving, and has been much hotter in June than in April. However, to the degree that the numbers matter to other teams, he won't be as attractive as Ramon.

Ramon Hernandez is now 35 years old, and this is already his 13th season in MLB, and his 3rd year with the Reds. Ramon is earning a salary of $3 million this season, and is not under contract for next year. Ramon's numbers this year are quite good: .316/.374/.526 for an OPS of .900. His numbers make him a good 'sell high' candidate.

I think that the salary will matter to the Reds. By trading Ramon, they can afford to take on much more salary this season than they could by trading Hanigan. Ramon also has experience playing in the AL, and would be likely to make a decent adjustment to that league.

I do agree that there will be some serious reluctance to make a trade. How much value can we expect for a 35 year old catcher not under contract for next year? What will it do to 'team chemistry' to trade a well liked veteran away in the middle of the season? How important is is to have a native spanish speaker catch for Cueto, Volquez, Chapman, Cordero, etc...?

Walt will have to think carefully and make the right decision here. My guess is that he won't trade Ramon unless he gets a good offer that would really help the Reds. I don't think it is likely that we get a TOR starter. Why would any team in playoff contention trade a solid starter for a 35 year old catcher? I see us getting a LF or SS that is about the same age. Ramon to the Dodgers for Furcal? Maybe....Something like that.

However, if we keep him through 2011, offer him arbitration, and then lose him after the season, with his numbers this year he may well be a type A free agent, giving us two compensation picks next June. The top 20% of players at each positional grouping are labeled as Type A players, and if those players are free agents, they are designated "Type A Free Agents."

I'm of the opinion that the Reds wouldn't offer Ramon arbitration. If he does continue to have this fine year, what would arb pay him? A nice chunk of coin. Ramon would certainly accept arb, and then we have a high priced catcher, an affordable #2 in Hanigan and STILL have Mes in the minors.

I don't see it. So frankly, the only way to leverage Ramon into future help is to trade him. Riding him out this season is fine, but it would not result in any future gain.

Kc61
06-14-2011, 10:55 AM
I don't see it. So frankly, the only way to leverage Ramon into future help is to trade him. Riding him out this season is fine, but it would not result in any future gain.

The future is now.

Benihana
06-14-2011, 11:17 AM
I'm on record as saying the Reds should start to promote AAA guys for the bench. I don't see great value from most of the Reds' bench players, and I think some of the AAA guys can make an impact.

As for Mesoraco, however, on reflection I'd probably wait for September. I wouldn't trade Hernandez or Hanigan right now.

Mes is only 22. Catching is a difficult position. I would rather let him grow at AAA for the rest of the minor league season and then get him up in Sept.

If the Reds fall out of the race, then I feel differently. But right now, let's keep the veteran guys at the major league level, let Devin keep learning at AAA, and pull the trigger when September comes around.

Generally I tend to agree with this sentiment (promoting AAA guys for the bench) although in this case, I'd say Hanigan, Cairo, and Heisey are among the best backups in the league. Seeing that Hanigan and Heisey make virtually the league minimum, I'd say that's pretty good value.

mbgrayson
06-14-2011, 11:21 AM
I'm of the opinion that the Reds wouldn't offer Ramon arbitration. If he does continue to have this fine year, what would arb pay him? A nice chunk of coin. Ramon would certainly accept arb, and then we have a high priced catcher, an affordable #2 in Hanigan and STILL have Mes in the minors.

I don't see it. So frankly, the only way to leverage Ramon into future help is to trade him. Riding him out this season is fine, but it would not result in any future gain.

You are probably correct. As long as Ramon thinks he can get more from arbitration, that is what he will pick. And if he is a Type A free agent, his marketability in the free agent market will be damaged if he declines arbitration, since he would then cost whichever team signs him a couple draft picks.

penantboundreds
06-14-2011, 11:59 AM
Could Hanigan net us Brett Gardner?

Benihana
06-14-2011, 12:00 PM
Could Hanigan net us Brett Gardner?

My guess is no. I doubt the Yankees are looking to trade a starting OF for a catcher like Hanigan, especially when they already have Russ Martin and Jesus Montero (regardless of whether or not he can stay behind the plate).

Hanigan is unlikely to yield the Reds a player that could be a significant upgrade in the majors for this season.

Will M
06-14-2011, 02:10 PM
OF surplus is what we have. You won't get a better OF for Hannigan than what we have currently in the majors and minors. Do you think we'd get someone better than Alonso?


Could Hanigan net us Brett Gardner?


My guess is no. I doubt the Yankees are looking to trade a starting OF for a catcher like Hanigan, especially when they already have Russ Martin and Jesus Montero (regardless of whether or not he can stay behind the plate).

Hanigan is unlikely to yield the Reds a player that could be a significant upgrade in the majors for this season.

LF is the place where i think a non blockbuster could help the Reds. I don't think we have a 'surplus'. we have 2 guys that aren't helping the team much and then theres Heisey who I like but Walt/Dusty seem to think is a 4th outfielder. I personally would try to package Alonso in some (other) big deal as I have my doubts about him playing left field. If Hanigan could net us a guy like Ludwick or Gradner that would be a good trade.

One thing to rememeber is that this is not the off season. A couple of teams really need help behind the plate right now. There are no free agents to sign. Every day the team waits they are playing a AAA guy behind the plate.

Scrap Irony
06-14-2011, 04:26 PM
Playing with the idea of a true blackbuster that would help both teams:

Reds trade Heisey, Janish, Hanigan, and Alonso.

Tampa Bay trades Jeremy Hellickson

Rays get four (!) starters for a true TOR ace.

It's an impossible deal, but one that very well would help both teams.

_Sir_Charles_
06-14-2011, 05:24 PM
I guess I'm on the other end of the spectrum from the original poster. I don't think Hernandez is anywhere CLOSE to as good at the plate as he's been thus far this year. I think he's in for a major crash back to earth. However, that being said, it IS a great time to sell high on him.

Hanigan is signed for a stunningly low amount for the next few years IIRC. He is perfectly suited to be the full-time starter or if Mesoraco comes up and produces, then to be the back up. Whereas Hernandez is due for a decline, Hanigan is due for his numbers to improve I'd say.

And that whole Spanish-speaking thing...it's WAY overblown. Both Dusty & Bryan speak spanish, and other than Chapman all the Latino pitchers speak English fine anyway.

Guacarock
06-14-2011, 05:55 PM
I'm for holding onto Hanigan, but trading Hernandez this summer while his stock is high and while we can still get some return for him. The ideal scenario, if you ask me:

Hernandez and Renteria to los Gigantes for southpaw Eric Surkamp, their AA starting pitcher born in Cincinnati.

The Giants are struggling with Posey and Fontenot's injuries, and they now have guys manning C and SS that rightfully belong back in AAA. We have exactly the veterans they need, and we also have the luxury of trading same with Hanigan and Janish remaining on our 25-man roster, and Mesoraco and Cozart well deserving of promotions -- not just tomorrow, but yesterday!

We take some risks moving vets while we're in contention, but if you ask me, we endure as much risk standing pat. This team as now constituted needs a little infusion of energy and excitement that Cozart and Mesoraco might well provide.

And having Surkamp waiting in the wings to join our rotation wouldn't hurt. He doesn't have a blazing fastball, but he's got a solid mix of plus-pitches and has KO'd batters everywhere he's pitched. Could become a hometown favorite!

Will M
06-14-2011, 06:17 PM
The Reds have three viable catchers. The Reds have holes. Other teams really need catchers. To me this is an opportunity to trade from a surplus to fill a need. Pretty straightforward.

The standard thought expressed here on the ORG is that we should keep Ramon (speaks Spanish, veteran prescence, playing well, etc). As part of this thought we also have to keep Ryan. Why? to pair with Mes next year. So Mes stays in AAA until a few ABs in September. this is the scenario i don't like. since most folks seem to want to keep Ramon I suggested a new scenario. I actually would be fine if the Reds traded Ramon & got value for him. Then go with Mes/Hanigan.

_Sir_Charles_
06-14-2011, 09:10 PM
I'm for holding onto Hanigan, but trading Hernandez this summer while his stock is high and while we can still get some return for him. The ideal scenario, if you ask me:

Hernandez and Renteria to los Gigantes for southpaw Eric Surkamp, their AA starting pitcher born in Cincinnati.

The Giants are struggling with Posey and Fontenot's injuries, and they now have guys manning C and SS that rightfully belong back in AAA. We have exactly the veterans they need, and we also have the luxury of trading same with Hanigan and Janish remaining on our 25-man roster, and Mesoraco and Cozart well deserving of promotions -- not just tomorrow, but yesterday!

We take some risks moving vets while we're in contention, but if you ask me, we endure as much risk standing pat. This team as now constituted needs a little infusion of energy and excitement that Cozart and Mesoraco might well provide.

And having Surkamp waiting in the wings to join our rotation wouldn't hurt. He doesn't have a blazing fastball, but he's got a solid mix of plus-pitches and has KO'd batters everywhere he's pitched. Could become a hometown favorite!

I actually like the sound of this one. I hate losing Hernandez, but at the same time we've GOT to open up room for Mesoraco AND strike while the iron is hot on Ramon. Not to mention it frees up some moolah if we want to add someone a bit later on.

cinreds21
06-14-2011, 09:40 PM
I think Surkamp is too good for Hernandez and Renteria. Despite how well Hernandez is doing, I don't know if he's going to bring a great load in return.

Guacarock
06-15-2011, 11:05 AM
I think Surkamp is too good for Hernandez and Renteria. Despite how well Hernandez is doing, I don't know if he's going to bring a great load in return.

You're absolutely correct. Los Gigantes are notoriously stingy about dealing off their starting pitchers, including those still in their formative stages as prospects. The team is built around its powerhouse rotation, and Sabean can be counted upon to stubbornly cling to his philosophy and strategy of team construction, even if things go a little awry.

But the fact is, things have gone a lot awry for the Giants. Posey and Fontenot are out, leaving C and SS in the hands of AAA players. The team is slipping and the Diamondbacks are only a game and a half back. Even the Giants' ace, The Freak, got filleted by the Reds just the other night. If these trends continue and the Giants start reeling and fall further and further from first, then Sabean's back could be up against the wall. In that case, he might have little choice but to overpay for a veteran catcher to give the team a chance to repeat in the post-season. I submit that Hernandez is arguably the best available veteran C on the market, and also one we might let go, even though we're also a contender, owing to Mesoraco's emergence and promise.

I really don't have any problem letting Hernandez go, either, but the return needs to be solid (Surkamp-style) and it would be ideal if the package also includes Renteria. Would free up some cash for us to fill other needs.

Benihana
06-15-2011, 11:14 AM
I would do both of those deals (Surkamp and Hellickson). I doubt SF or TB would. I think Hellickson in particular could fetch more "true impact" players if he were put on the market.

As we all know, Heisey and Janish are league average starters at best, below that at worst. Alonso is an unknown, although I do think he'd have value to TB.

Big Klu
06-15-2011, 12:32 PM
And that whole Spanish-speaking thing...it's WAY overblown. Both Dusty & Bryan speak spanish, and other than Chapman all the Latino pitchers speak English fine anyway.

Yes, Cueto did a fine job of speaking English in his postgame interview last night.

Edd Roush
06-16-2011, 03:30 PM
Wow, I didn't realize how well Surkamp was pitching. Crazy that he is looking like the much better prospect than Brackman who was much higher touted coming out of both the same high school (Moeller) and the same college (NC State). I would love to see Surkamp come to the Reds. We need another Man of Moeller in the system after we cut Satterwhite.

Guacarock
06-16-2011, 04:52 PM
Wow, I didn't realize how well Surkamp was pitching. Crazy that he is looking like the much better prospect than Brackman who was much higher touted coming out of both the same high school (Moeller) and the same college (NC State). I would love to see Surkamp come to the Reds. We need another Man of Moeller in the system after we cut Satterwhite.

Interesting enough, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said earlier this week that Brackman probably wouldn't get a callup this season. The Yankees gave Brackman an extended look-see in spring training, but he didn't seize the opportunity. And since then, he has collected a 6.92 ERA in the 12 games he has started for the Yankees' AAA farm club at Scranton/Wilkes Barre. Does seem like Surkamp's stock continues to rise, while Brackman has hit a wall.

I(heart)Freel
06-16-2011, 05:31 PM
Wow, I didn't realize how well Surkamp was pitching. Crazy that he is looking like the much better prospect than Brackman who was much higher touted coming out of both the same high school (Moeller) and the same college (NC State). I would love to see Surkamp come to the Reds. We need another Man of Moeller in the system after we cut Satterwhite.

The Giants might be planning for Surkamp to take over when Cain, Sanchez and Vogelsang's contracts are up (all after the 2012 season).

Zito and Lincecum are controlled through 2013 season, and Bumgarner goes through 2015.

In short, prying Surkamp away could be unrealistic. They might want every pitching prospect they have in the coming years.

cinreds21
06-16-2011, 10:11 PM
I was just thinking. Y'all probably won't like this but here's an idea:

Hernandez and Alonso to Tampa for left-handed pitchers Matt Moore, Kyle Lobstein, and catcher/outfielder/utilityman Stephen Vogt.

Ron Madden
06-17-2011, 04:03 AM
When all is said and done I'd rather the Reds hold on to Ryan Hanigan.

CrackerJack
06-17-2011, 12:39 PM
Considering the Reds' tendencies under Walt, I am guessing that as long as they are in contention this year, they'll keep Hanny/Ramon and give Mes a full year in AAA, and lose Ramon in the off-season.