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fearofpopvol1
06-14-2011, 03:39 AM
Hopefully Dusty reads RZ. I think it's time.

Plus Plus
06-14-2011, 03:57 AM
The curious case of Chris Heisey...

2011


Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
Start 16 16 67 57 7 11 2 0 1 9 2 1 7 16 .193 .299 .281 .579 16 0 2 0 1 0 2 .244 53 65
Sub 40 0 49 44 9 17 1 0 3 12 1 0 3 11 .386 .408 .614 1.022 27 0 0 0 2 1 0 .438 162 221

Career


Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
Start 58 58 242 214 31 47 10 0 5 22 3 3 18 62 .220 .299 .336 .635 72 2 7 1 2 1 4 .282 68
Sub 95 0 100 88 18 32 3 1 7 20 1 0 8 22 .364 .410 .659 1.069 58 1 1 0 3 1 0 .403 177

I really don't know what to make out of this. I think that Hesiey is likely a .770-.800 bat going forward, but these splits are pretty intense.

In the interest of full disclosure, I have to add this: I'm not a big fan of any of the LF options, beyond "who's hot lately" or "who has a good matchup today." I think that LF is a key place to make a large-scope improvement, but I'm not sure if Heisey is or is not the answer.

Ron Madden
06-14-2011, 06:23 AM
I for one would like to see Heisey start about 10 games in a row, just to see what happens.

edabbs44
06-14-2011, 07:22 AM
I for one would like to see Heisey start about 10 games in a row, just to see what happens.

He had some bulk playing time last year and failed miserably. This year could be different, though.

But last night was a step in the right direction. If he doesn't want to be known as the 6th man, he needs to take advantage of his opportunities.

edabbs44
06-14-2011, 07:24 AM
One thing to note on his career splits are the babip numbers.

RedEye
06-14-2011, 09:31 AM
I for one would like to see Heisey start about 162 games in a row, just to see what happens.

Fixed that for ya.

RedEye
06-14-2011, 09:33 AM
I for one have always been jazzed about the idea of a Heisey-Stubbs-Bruce OF going forward. Not sure why more people aren't with me on that. Or maybe they are and I'm just neurotic.

penantboundreds
06-14-2011, 09:40 AM
Heisey -- Stubbs -- Bruce....that outfield is pretty impressive defensively

oneupper
06-14-2011, 09:56 AM
Heisey is the new Denorfia. Low draft pick, good minor league record. Runs well (better %than stubbs in minors), plays good D and has some pop.

Like Deno, he has some staunch supporters and detractors and never could get the FO or manager to believe in him.

Deno has performed well when healthy (.766 OPS career .805 this year). His problem has been staying healthy.

Heisey (and previoulsy Deno) would be fine by me.

cumberlandreds
06-14-2011, 10:00 AM
Heisey of the three choices for left is the best one. But I'm afraid if he played every day that his warts would show. To me he just looks like a 4th outfielder. Like Oneupper said he another Denorfia with maybe just a little more power.

Reds1
06-14-2011, 10:17 AM
I have been wanting him to get a shot all year. Maybe this is it. He's going to have to get hot I think for Dusty to play him. There is a love for Gomes so it will be hard for any long term full time position, but as long as he takes the other LF starts I'm excited.

Edskin
06-14-2011, 10:18 AM
I agree with others that Heisy's ceiling is probably as a very good 4th OF'er, buy "probably" is the key word there. We know for sure what we have in Gomes and Lewis, the only way we find out for sure about Heisy is consistent starts. Considering the other two are underwhelming, now is the perfect time for Heisy to get a legitimate look.

Kc61
06-14-2011, 11:28 AM
I'd like the Reds to get a legit LF with Heisey as the fourth outfielder. He'd still get plenty of playing time.

With Stubbs striking out in epic proportions these days, I think we'll see Heisey play some CF soon. Stubbs needs a rest IMO.

Homer Bailey
06-14-2011, 11:31 AM
I'd like the Reds to get a legit LF with Heisey as the fourth outfielder. He'd still get plenty of playing time.

With Stubbs striking out in epic proportions these days, I think we'll see Heisey play some CF soon. Stubbs needs a rest IMO.

Yeah that .850 OPS in June really needs to take a seat. :dunno:

Kc61
06-14-2011, 11:38 AM
Yeah that .850 OPS in June really needs to take a seat. :dunno:


Guy is striking out more and more. I think he needs a couple of days off and will come back with a vengeance.

It's not a knock on Stubbs, who I like, but IMO he is pressing at the plate and needs a little time to re-group.

Roy Tucker
06-14-2011, 11:41 AM
Heisey of the three choices for left is the best one. But I'm afraid if he played every day that his warts would show. To me he just looks like a 4th outfielder. Like Oneupper said he another Denorfia with maybe just a little more power.

I'd like to see if he can correct these warts that seem to pop up when he is a starter.

It's called a learning curve. Guys like Votto, Bruce, and Stubbs (I think) have been able to progress along this curve when they were given playing time. It can be a rough process with a lot of ups and downs and progression and regression (and lots of RZ wailing and gnashing of teeth).

I think the time has come to see if Heisey can do all the self-correction and continuous learning and other OJT learning that goes on with being a starter and staying ahead of how he's pitched.

Or at least keep his head above water and not drown. When given this opportunity before (albeit fairly brief), he got exposed and didn't seem to adjust very well.

Homer Bailey
06-14-2011, 11:43 AM
Guy is striking out more and more. I think he needs a couple of days off and will come back with a vengeance.

It's not a knock on Stubbs, who I like, but IMO he is pressing at the plate and needs a little time to re-group.

He's getting on base at a .390 clip this month. Strikeouts are always going to part of the equation with Stubbs, but he's still producing.

guttle11
06-14-2011, 12:03 PM
My only problem with Stubbs strikeouts is that he takes too many called third strikes. Swinging Ks don't bother me unless it's the "Gomes swings and misses a ball 3 feet outside" variety. He's a guess hitter and just gives up if he guesses wrong. With his speed, the threat of a double play is low and the possibility of infield hit is high...he needs to be putting the ball in play more often. You can't put the ball in play when you watch a third strike. Gotta battle up there.

Cooper
06-14-2011, 12:27 PM
Heisey is too good to start. Just think how good he'd be if he didn't play at all.

Ron Madden
06-14-2011, 01:38 PM
He had some bulk playing time last year and failed miserably. This year could be different, though.
But last night was a step in the right direction. If he doesn't want to be known as the 6th man, he needs to take advantage of his opportunities.

Has he ever started ten or more games in a row?

If so, I can't remember it ever happening.

remdog
06-14-2011, 01:49 PM
My thoughts from another thread:

In LF, give Heisey 10 starts in 14 days and let's see what he does. Definately better defensively than Gomes, pretty much the same power, strikes out almost as much as the the guy making the $1.75M. There are several candidates in L'ville for that LF job and you need to find out now where you are with these guys.

Rem

edabbs44
06-14-2011, 01:50 PM
Has he ever started ten or more games in a row?

If so, I can't remember it ever happening.

Yes. Aug 31 to Sept 10 2010.

.200/.220/.300

Not saying that it is anything proof positive. But it isn't like he hasn't ever had a chance. Dusty refers to him as his 6th man. If he plays like last night when he gets the time, I am sure more starts will come his way.

reds44
06-14-2011, 01:56 PM
Yes. Aug 31 to Sept 10 2010.

.200/.220/.300

Not saying that it is anything proof positive. But it isn't like he hasn't ever had a chance. Dusty refers to him as his 6th man. If he plays like last night when he gets the time, I am sure more starts will come his way.
Basing any player off of ten games is insanity though. I'm not saying you don't have a point about him being better when he comes off the bench, because the stats prove you do. He just hasn't had nearly enough ABs either way to draw any conclusions, IMO.

He OPSing above .800 right now. Dude has earned more playing time.

Brutus
06-14-2011, 01:57 PM
It goes without saying his true ability is probably somewhere in between his starting splits and substitute splits, but I tend to think the starting numbers are a slight bit closer to what we'd expect from him when playing everyday.

That said, I'd like to see him get another prolonged crack at starting. Last year, his struggles seemed to come when the league had made adjustments on him. But major league-caliber hitters eventually make adjustments of their own and catch up to what teams are doing against them. I think he's got the chance to be a productive starter. Given the Reds' situation, I'd like to see if that is possible this year.

kaldaniels
06-14-2011, 02:58 PM
Guy is striking out more and more. I think he needs a couple of days off and will come back with a vengeance.

It's not a knock on Stubbs, who I like, but IMO he is pressing at the plate and needs a little time to re-group.

I beg you,take a look at his June numbers and amend this if you like.

Rojo
06-14-2011, 02:58 PM
In Heisey's favor, he's killing right-handed pitching (.871 OPS). I'm always suspicious of a righties who who can't hit righties -- I think "slow bat". Not hitting lefties, however, is often just a learning curve. Shore up that .586 ops vs. LHP and you've got a decent player, probably not much off fall off from a Ludwick or Willingham.

Kc61
06-14-2011, 03:09 PM
I beg you,take a look at his June numbers and amend this if you like.

The numbers bear me out. Here are Stubbs' strikeout percentages for this season:

March/April - 29.5%
May - 31.5%
June - 44%

Here are Stubbs' strikeout percentages for the past three seasons:

2009 - 27.2%
2010 - 32.7%
2011 - 33%

I know he has a high OPS for June. But when a hitter is fanning 44% of the time he needs to start making more contact.

If it were me, I'd sit Stubbs today and tomorrow against LA and use Heisey in CF. I would then let Stubbs return on Friday. I think it would help him.

Again, not bashing Stubbs, just think that his overall numbers will fall if he continues to strike out at this pace.

lollipopcurve
06-14-2011, 03:13 PM
If it were me, I'd sit Stubbs today and tomorrow against LA and use Heisey in CF. I would then let Stubbs return on Friday. I think it would help him.


Agreed. At least Wednesday, so he gets 2 days in a row.

LoganBuck
06-14-2011, 03:14 PM
Yes. Aug 31 to Sept 10 2010.

.200/.220/.300

Not saying that it is anything proof positive. But it isn't like he hasn't ever had a chance. Dusty refers to him as his 6th man. If he plays like last night when he gets the time, I am sure more starts will come his way.

That was during the period where injuries caught up to the Reds and Heisey was the only other option to play at all, and he had a sore shoulder, iirc. He was taking one for the team, he couldn't throw or hit. It was ugly. Wasn't the deal that Edmonds had the achilles, Bruce might have been nicked, Louisville was in the playoffs, and Cairo tweaked his groin or hamstring? I think it was pretty much Gomes, Stubbs, and Heisey. That was it.

Kc61
06-14-2011, 03:16 PM
Agreed. At least Wednesday, so he gets 2 days in a row.

Just noticed that Stubbs has very good numbers in day games. So let's sit him tonight, let him play Wednesday, then get Thursday off.

signalhome
06-14-2011, 03:20 PM
I beg you,take a look at his June numbers and amend this if you like.

.426 OBP, .937 OPS. That's very surprising. I would have never imagined his June numbers to be that good.

Edit: That doesn't include last night's numbers. Probably a bit lower after counting that game.

MikeS21
06-14-2011, 03:40 PM
The problem with guys like Heisey is that every team has them - guys who who make GREAT 4th and 5th OF's, but not players you want to see playing every day.

You look in the minors, at guys like Dave Sappelt, and wonder if he is just another 4th or 5th OF.

reds44
06-14-2011, 03:43 PM
No part of Heisey's first two seasons tell you he's only a 4th or 5th outfielder.

His minor league numbers? Different story.

Rojo
06-14-2011, 03:50 PM
The problem with guys like Heisey is that every team has them - guys who who make GREAT 4th and 5th OF's, but not players you want to see playing every day.

I disagree. He'd probably start on every NL West team.

Of course, he'd have surpass Will Venable, Jerry Sands and Nate Schierholtz.

remdog
06-14-2011, 03:56 PM
But it's not just whether or not Heisey is a 4th OFer. It's about that he's (IMO) an upgrade over Gomes or Lewis, neither of whom I can see coming back next year. So, give CH a legitimate shot at the postion, in all likelyhood (IMO) upgrade the position and find out what you need to know about some of the cuts at the end of the year and what you're going to do with some of the guys in AAA.

Rem

oneupper
06-14-2011, 04:03 PM
I disagree. He'd probably start on every NL West team.

Of course, he'd have surpass Will Venable, Jerry Sands and Nate Schierholtz.

Because NO way he can beat out Denorfia. :D

Hoosier Red
06-14-2011, 04:31 PM
My only problem with Stubbs strikeouts is that he takes too many called third strikes. Swinging Ks don't bother me unless it's the "Gomes swings and misses a ball 3 feet outside" variety. He's a guess hitter and just gives up if he guesses wrong. With his speed, the threat of a double play is low and the possibility of infield hit is high...he needs to be putting the ball in play more often. You can't put the ball in play when you watch a third strike. Gotta battle up there.

I disagree with this interpretation. I think taking a lot of called strike threes goes part and parcel with being a patient hitter. That's actually what you want in a leadoff guy.

One reason I think he felt uncomfortable leading off last year was that he often got himself in pitcher's counts watching a pitch or two go by, and then he was at their mercy.
This year, he seems to be doing a better job of swinging at pitches he can do damage to, and laying off pitches he can't.

That means he's going to strikeout a fair amount, but it also means he's going to get on base because he's walking more often.

Strikeouts, especially when strike 3 is looking may not make you feel all warm and tingly, but if they come with a .400 OBP sign me up every day.

And striking out when you're leading off or batting behind the pitcher and Janish is really no worse of an out than any other out.

reds44
06-14-2011, 07:09 PM
Heisey is in LF again tonight.

RU ROH.

fearofpopvol1
06-14-2011, 07:24 PM
Maybe he reads RZ?

Guacarock
06-14-2011, 07:32 PM
Good time to start Heisey with the Reds on the road in the West. Reasons:

1. Huge parks out West so you want your best defender manning LF.
2. These are among the teams (Padres, Dodgers, Giants, not to mention the As) that might want to trade for Heisey come July, so it's good idea to give them a look-see at what he can do out in the field and at the plate.

edabbs44
06-14-2011, 07:59 PM
The only bigger bugaboo for Heisey than starting pitching so far has been quality starting pitching. Him starting over Gomes vs a lhp is an obvious sign. Produce and the job is yours to lose.

nate
06-14-2011, 09:48 PM
To me, the "starting/subbing" split isn't incredibly informative. I will say that Heisey has a career .337 wOBA in 346 PA. That's averageish. I also happen to think he's a fine fielder and when I combine my WoTV with a variety of other information combined in a difficult to explain but fully reasonable manner, it adds up to a pretty useful player. At least, one who should be starting more than the dozenish times he's started this season.

oneupper
06-14-2011, 09:56 PM
Just food for thought. In 2010 there were 14 OFs with OPS>.800 (qualifying). This year it's about the same so far. That's on 16 teams.
So, while we'd all like to have a Matt Holliday-type bat in LF, sometimes a Heisey will have to do. It could be worse. You could be stuck with Carlos Lee.

Homer Bailey
06-15-2011, 01:59 AM
Looks like it was a good thing Stubbs wasn't benched tonight.

3 for 4, run, clutch 9th inning RBI, 2 SB's.

Plus Plus
06-15-2011, 02:52 AM
To me, the "starting/subbing" split isn't incredibly informative. I will say that Heisey has a career .337 wOBA in 346 PA. That's averageish. I also happen to think he's a fine fielder and when I combine my WoTV with a variety of other information combined in a difficult to explain but fully reasonable manner, it adds up to a pretty useful player. At least, one who should be starting more than the dozenish times he's started this season.

I completely agree with your assessment. I just think the fact that the splits are so stark is curious, if nothing more.

fearofpopvol1
06-15-2011, 03:27 AM
Heisey had a double tonight. Maybe not a great night, but not a bad night either.

Rojo
06-15-2011, 03:22 PM
Oops, NM.

traderumor
06-15-2011, 03:29 PM
On the flip side, it looks like Gomes has used up all his rope. If an opportunity arises or change for change sake occurs, he seems to be on the short list.

edabbs44
06-15-2011, 10:07 PM
http://www.danheller.com/images/California/DeathValley/Misc/dv-tumbleweed-1-big.jpg

edabbs44
06-15-2011, 10:08 PM
Sorry, it had to be done.

Ron Madden
06-16-2011, 05:26 AM
Sorry, it had to be done.

It's just my honest yet humble opinion but I'd just like to see what Heisey could do in the same number of PA's that have been wasted on your boy Gomes in the last calander year. ;)

fearofpopvol1
07-15-2011, 10:12 PM
See original thread title. Dude is playing good ball right now.

Brutus
07-15-2011, 10:14 PM
See original thread title. Dude is playing good ball right now.

I've been on the fence, but I'm starting to agree. He could stand to get on base a bit more, but his defense and the pop he's shown makes him a solid player. He can continue to hover around .800 with a nice glove and be a productive player for the Reds.

edabbs44
07-15-2011, 10:16 PM
See original thread title. Dude is playing good ball right now.

Having a great game but wasn't doing much lately before tonight. .597 OPS in 42 PAs since the 3 HR bonanza vs the Yankees.

Brutus
07-15-2011, 10:21 PM
Having a great game but wasn't doing much lately before tonight. .597 OPS in 42 PAs since the 3 HR bonanza vs the Yankees.

Come on Ed. The kid has an .813 OPS for the year. At what point does he start to get some credit? It seems every time he has a good game, it's a good game "but."

I realize he's streaky and has plenty of room for improvement, but he's 26 with some decent skills to be a good everyday player. If your position is that he's not likely to keep it up, I think it's a fair position. But it's getting to the point that it's not fair to extricate a subset of his season to otherwise minimize what he's done on the whole.

HokieRed
07-15-2011, 10:26 PM
He's on a 40 HR per year pace if he'd play every day. He is, obviously, the best possible available answer to the LF issue. It's way past time.

edabbs44
07-15-2011, 10:26 PM
Come on Ed. The kid has an .813 OPS for the year. At what point does he start to get some credit? It seems every time he has a good game, it's a good game "but."

I realize he's streaky and has plenty of room for improvement, but he's 26 with some decent skills to be a good everyday player.

I really have no issue with him playing more. I really don't. But I also don't think it is unfair to comment on a post that is clearly incorrect.

Let him win the job. Maybe he'll produce more consistently. I don't know. But I'm not a fan of the feast or famine types.

Brutus
07-15-2011, 10:27 PM
I really have no issue with him playing more. I really don't. But I also don't think it is unfair to comment on a post that is clearly incorrect.

Let him win the job. Maybe he'll produce more consistently. I don't know. But I'm not a fan of the feast or famine types.

It depends if one construes that comment as right now being this year or right now being the last few weeks.

I tend to agree that I'm not crazy about the feast or famine stuff. But just like Jay Bruce is too good not to live with it, Chris Heisey is doing enough it's worth sticking with too.

fearofpopvol1
07-15-2011, 10:28 PM
Having a great game but wasn't doing much lately before tonight. .597 OPS in 42 PAs since the 3 HR bonanza vs the Yankees.

42 PAs is what, 8 games worth? Is that enough to draw a conclusion from?

fearofpopvol1
07-15-2011, 10:29 PM
I really have no issue with him playing more. I really don't. But I also don't think it is unfair to comment on a post that is clearly incorrect.

Let him win the job. Maybe he'll produce more consistently. I don't know. But I'm not a fan of the feast or famine types.

So you must loathe Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs then? And Adam Dunn when he was a Red?

edabbs44
07-15-2011, 10:30 PM
42 PAs is what, 8 games worth? Is that enough to draw a conclusion from?

I didn't draw any conclusion. What exactly does "playing good ball right now" mean?

reds44
07-15-2011, 10:36 PM
So what is his OPS in that span of games if you include his 3 HR game and tonight?

edabbs44
07-15-2011, 10:36 PM
So you must loathe Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs then? And Adam Dunn when he was a Red?

Jay Bruce's inconsistency annoys me, without a doubt. But if Heisey were to put up stretches like Jay does, MVP like months, I would handle his disappearances a bit better.

Stubbs is frustrating, sure. And I thought Adam was overrated and I wasn't his biggest fan.

I would feel a bit better about Chris if he put up numbers consistently across the board. I do question whether Dusty's spotting of him might be part of his success. But I have no issues with him getting most of the time out there. Lewis obviously isn't grabbing hold of much when given the opportunity and Gomes is...Gomes, I guess.

reds44
07-15-2011, 10:36 PM
If he had enough ABs to qualify, Heisey would have the second best AB/HR ratio in the NL.

edabbs44
07-15-2011, 10:39 PM
So what is his OPS in that span of games if you include his 3 HR game and tonight?

You mean when he hit 2 HRs off the guy who got sold to Asia and the other off the guy with who let up 8 hits in 1.2 innings that night?

.868

But that wasn't my point...the original quote was "right now", and the NYY 3 HR bonanza is anything but "right now".

edabbs44
07-15-2011, 10:41 PM
If he had enough ABs to qualify, Heisey would have the second best AB/HR ratio in the NL.

Mr. Glass' ratio in '08 was pretty stellar as well.

reds44
07-15-2011, 10:42 PM
You mean when he hit 2 HRs off the guy who got sold to Asia and the other off the guy with who let up 8 hits in 1.2 innings that night?

.868

But that wasn't my point...the original quote was "right now", and the NYY 3 HR bonanza is anything but "right now".
Look at what you just did with stats. You turned an .868 OPS into a .597 OPS by removing what, 8 ABs?

That my friends is what we call manipulating stats as well as dealing with small sample sizes.

.813 OPS on the season. Manipulate it however you want, but he's been a really good player this year. Much better than any other option in LF. Or CF for that matter.

edabbs44
07-15-2011, 10:54 PM
Look at what you just did with stats. You turned an .868 OPS into a .597 OPS by removing what, 8 ABs?

That my friends is what we call manipulating stats as well as dealing with small sample sizes.

.813 OPS on the season. Manipulate it however you want, but he's been a really good player this year. Much better than any other option in LF. Or CF for that matter.

It goes both ways. Adding one game, subtracting one game, etc.

Point still stands...the NYY game is not "right now". It is less "right now" than any game I included in my sample.

reds44
07-15-2011, 10:57 PM
It goes both ways. Adding one game, subtracting one game, etc.

Point still stands...the NYY game is not "right now". It is less "right now" than any game I included in my sample.
The most "right now" is a two homer game. What's your point?

You can add a game, subtract a game, or you can do the correct thing and look at the entire season.

edabbs44
07-15-2011, 11:00 PM
The most "right now" is a two homer game. What's your point?

You can add a game, subtract a game, or you can do the correct thing and look at the entire season.

If I told you that Jay Bruce was killing it right now, would you look at the entire season or recent past?

This is kind of ridiculous, to be honest.

reds44
07-15-2011, 11:04 PM
Man with two homers today=killing the ball.

nate
07-15-2011, 11:31 PM
42 PAs is what, 8 games worth? Is that enough to draw a conclusion from?

Nope.

We really shouldn't be talking about Heisey being good or bad using terms other than his career and/or minor league numbers. These tiny slices don't mean anything.

toledodan
07-16-2011, 12:25 AM
stubbs is still dusty's centerfielder.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-16-2011, 12:30 AM
stubbs is still dusty's centerfielder.

So was Willy Taveras and Corey Patterson.

toledodan
07-16-2011, 12:38 AM
So was Willy Taveras and Corey Patterson.

lol i know. thats what dusty told marty and marty kept bringing it up during the game.:D

mbgrayson
07-16-2011, 02:25 AM
FWIW, our outfielder stats through today's game:

MLB:
Chris Heisey: .256/.314/.494 for an OPS of .808, with 12 HRs, 3 of 4 SB, and 49 Ks in 185 plate appearances (26.4% K rate).
Drew Stubbs: .249/.325/.386 for an OPS of .711, with 11 HRs, 23 of 29 SB, and 123 Ks in 402 plate appearances (30.5% K rate).
Jonny Gomes: .218/.345/.417 for an OPS of .763, with 11 HRs, 5 of 8 SB, and 70 Ks in 243 plate appearances (29% K rate).
Fred Lewis: .264/.338/.364 for an OPS of .702, with 2 HRs, 0 of 4 SB, and 25 Ks in 133 plate appearances (19% K rate).
Jay Bruce: .268/.342/.506 for an OPS of .848, with 21 HRs, 6 of 10 SB, and 84 Ks in 378 plate appearances (22% K rate).

AAA:
Jeremy Hermida: .322/.409/.500 for an OPS of .909, with 9 HRs, 2 of 2 SB, and 54 Ks in 312 plate appearances (17% K rate).
Yonder Alonso: .300/.372/.492 for an OPS of .864, with 11 HRs, 5 of 10 SB, and 56 Ks in 355 plate appearances (16% K rate).
Dave Sappelt: .294/.357/.467 for an OPS of .825, with 7 HRs, 2 of 5 SB, and 31 Ks in 234 plate appearances (13% K rate).
Todd Frazier: .266/.347.485 for an OPS of .832, with 15 HRs, 16 of 19 SB, and 75 Ks in 326 plate appearances (23 % K rate).

mth123
07-16-2011, 02:35 AM
I still think the Reds need a LH bat from outside the organization to share LF, but if this is all Walt is going to give Dusty, then Heisey in CF and Lewis in LF against RHP and Stubbs in CF and Gomes in LF against LHP is the best the team can do right now. If they are going to do that though, Lewis should be leading off and Heisey should be in the 5 hole. I actually like Heisey leading off though and would rather get somebody else instead of Lewis for the LH LF role. Maybe Hermida or Alonso should get the nod since making a deal to bring in help where needed seems to be against the Reds corporate charter or something.

BTW, I'm sure everyone will disagree, but Lewis is a downgrade from Gomes defensively in LF. The guy is awful out there.

reds44
07-16-2011, 02:47 AM
As much as I love Heisey, I think this team would receive a huge boost from getting Beltran. They need another presence in the middle of the lineup.

I wouldn't mind having Heisey in CF though.

EDIT: Wow, Sappelt's numbers have fallen off a cliff.

toledodan
07-16-2011, 02:48 AM
if it was up to me alonso would be up saturday and starting in LF. i like stubbs on the bench as a pinch runner and for defense late in the game. DFA lewis or gomes or both.

toledodan
07-16-2011, 02:50 AM
As much as I love Heisey, I think this team would receive a huge boost from getting Beltran. They need another presence in the middle of the lineup.

I wouldn't mind having Heisey in CF though.



i would love that but the front office doesn't like what we want.

757690
07-16-2011, 02:56 AM
I still think the Reds need a LH bat from outside the organization to share LF, but if this is all Walt is going to give Dusty, then Heisey in CF and Lewis in LF against RHP and Stubbs in CF and Gomes in LF against LHP is the best the team can do right now. If they are going to do that though, Lewis should be leading off and Heisey should be in the 5 hole. I actually like Heisey leading off though and would rather get somebody else instead of Lewis for the LH LF role. Maybe Hermida or Alonso should get the nod since making a deal to bring in help where needed seems to be against the Reds corporate charter or something.

BTW, I'm sure everyone will disagree, but Lewis is a downgrade from Gomes defensively in LF. The guy is awful out there.

Agree with all of this except Hermedia. Just never been that impressed with him.

And if people were really paying attention, they would see that Gomes has been much better defensively this season than before. It might not continue, but he's taken better routes and made a lot more plays. Lewis on the other hand, has been surprisingly bad out there.

toledodan
07-16-2011, 03:00 AM
Agree with all of this except Hermedia. Just never been that impressed with him



he reminds me of brandon larson. can really rake at AAA but never gets going in the majors.

mth123
07-16-2011, 03:20 AM
Agree with all of this except Hermedia. Just never been that impressed with him.

And if people were really paying attention, they would see that Gomes has been much better defensively this season than before. It might not continue, but he's taken better routes and made a lot more plays. Lewis on the other hand, has been surprisingly bad out there.

I'm still not ready to write-off Hermida. I think if the Reds thought Alosno could play even a little bit in LF, he'd be up already. That leaves the choice between Lewis and Hermida. I like Hermida better. He's the lesser of 2 evils defensively and has more power.

Funny, but of the group of Gomes. Lewis, Hermida and Alonso, Gomes is the best defender and its really not all that close. Lewis isn't a surprise, he's always been awful out there.

fearofpopvol1
07-16-2011, 04:14 AM
FWIW, our outfielder stats through today's game:

MLB:
Chris Heisey: .256/.314/.494 for an OPS of .808, with 12 HRs, 3 of 4 SB, and 49 Ks in 185 plate appearances (26.4% K rate).
Drew Stubbs: .249/.325/.386 for an OPS of .711, with 11 HRs, 23 of 29 SB, and 123 Ks in 402 plate appearances (30.5% K rate).
Jonny Gomes: .218/.345/.417 for an OPS of .763, with 11 HRs, 5 of 8 SB, and 70 Ks in 243 plate appearances (29% K rate).
Fred Lewis: .264/.338/.364 for an OPS of .702, with 2 HRs, 0 of 4 SB, and 25 Ks in 133 plate appearances (19% K rate).
Jay Bruce: .268/.342/.506 for an OPS of .848, with 21 HRs, 6 of 10 SB, and 84 Ks in 378 plate appearances (22% K rate).

AAA:
Jeremy Hermida: .322/.409/.500 for an OPS of .909, with 9 HRs, 2 of 2 SB, and 54 Ks in 312 plate appearances (17% K rate).
Yonder Alonso: .300/.372/.492 for an OPS of .864, with 11 HRs, 5 of 10 SB, and 56 Ks in 355 plate appearances (16% K rate).
Dave Sappelt: .294/.357/.467 for an OPS of .825, with 7 HRs, 2 of 5 SB, and 31 Ks in 234 plate appearances (13% K rate).
Todd Frazier: .266/.347.485 for an OPS of .832, with 15 HRs, 16 of 19 SB, and 75 Ks in 326 plate appearances (23 % K rate).

Heisey having 12 home runs in 185 PAs is :shocked:

I'd really like to keep Stubbs in CF, I just don't want him batting leadoff. Bat him 6th. I'd like to see Heisey given a legitimate shot to win the LF job unless Walt goes out and gets a better player. The catch Heisey made tonight is one I don't think Lewis or Gomes would have made, so there is an obvious upside in Heisey's defense as well.

membengal
07-16-2011, 07:32 AM
Pretty sure Heisey should be playing everyday at this point. LF primarily.

traderumor
07-16-2011, 08:12 AM
Heisey having 12 home runs in 185 PAs is :shocked:

I'd really like to keep Stubbs in CF, I just don't want him batting leadoff. Bat him 6th. I'd like to see Heisey given a legitimate shot to win the LF job unless Walt goes out and gets a better player. The catch Heisey made tonight is one I don't think Lewis or Gomes would have made, so there is an obvious upside in Heisey's defense as well.Is going to be one heckuva Strat-O-Matic card :)

HokieRed
07-16-2011, 09:28 AM
Pretty sure Heisey should be playing everyday at this point. LF primarily.

Agree. Until he plays himself out of a job, the only question every day should be whether to put CF or LF after Heisey's name on the lineup card.

traderumor
07-16-2011, 10:18 AM
Agree. Until he plays himself out of a job, the only question every day should be whether to put CF or LF after Heisey's name on the lineup card.I've wanted to see him put out there for about a month and give him the chance Gomes was given. Play LF when Stubbs is in the lineup, move him to CF when Stubbs is out. Rotate in Lewis (except his D is not looking much better than Gomes to the eye, man he misjudges fly balls consistently), and maybe use Gomes to mash lefties, or let him move on.

Scrap Irony
07-16-2011, 11:39 AM
I'd play him in both LF and CF, depending on the handedness of the pitcher.

If the guy's LH, Heisey's playing some CF.

If he's RH, he's playing LF.

I'd also look into dealing Stubbs as part of a package for an ace or a monster LF bat.

Stubbs, Hanigan, Alonso, Janish, and Wood for James Shields makes sense for both teams. Tampa would upgrade four (!) positions at the major league level as early as next season, three for this year.

Cincinnati gets their ace to headline the rotation of Cueto, Arroyo, Leake, and Bailey (with Willis as long reliever/ spot starter if someone goes down).

Heisey replaces Stubbs in CF for good, with a straight platoon of Gomes and Lewis this season (and a decision on Alonso/ Sappelt/ Frazier/ free agent after 2011). Frazier takes the spot of Stubbs on the roster and plays some LF, 3B when Rolen needs a breather, 1B when Votto needs a blow, and some RF as well. He can also provide power off the bench as a pinch hitter.

Mesoraco comes up to split the catching duties with Hernandez. This gets his feet wet and allows Baker a chance to see if the kid can hit cleanup next season between Bruce and Votto.

VR
07-16-2011, 12:20 PM
I remain optimistic with the future of Alonso and Sappelt. But the top 500 pitchers are in the major leagues.....and these guys are OPSing in the low to mid .800's against the ones that can't crack that top 500. It's a different game up here.

Heisey, for now, makes unbelievable sense.

edabbs44
07-16-2011, 12:56 PM
Heisey's career numbers vs LHP are dwarfed by Stubbs' career numbers.

edabbs44
07-16-2011, 04:46 PM
Heisey starting again tonight in LF vs Carpenter. To answer some of your concerns, games like these will go a long way towards making me a believer in what he is doing. Beating up 2nd and 3rd rate pitchers is great and all, but producing versus some better pitchers in the league is a different story.

And I know what the knee-jerk response is going to be,(and to answer that before the game), if he takes the collar with 2 Ks it won't "prove" anything on its own. But if Heisey stings a few balls in the gap or down the line, my comfort level will definitely move in the right direction regarding him as a consistent starter. And if he looks completely overwhelmed, that's not that great either.

fearofpopvol1
07-16-2011, 05:21 PM
Heisey starting again tonight in LF vs Carpenter. To answer some of your concerns, games like these will go a long way towards making me a believer in what he is doing. Beating up 2nd and 3rd rate pitchers is great and all, but producing versus some better pitchers in the league is a different story.

And I know what the knee-jerk response is going to be,(and to answer that before the game), if he takes the collar with 2 Ks it won't "prove" anything on its own. But if Heisey stings a few balls in the gap or down the line, my comfort level will definitely move in the right direction regarding him as a consistent starter. And if he looks completely overwhelmed, that's not that great either.

What if the entire team struggles against Carpenter? Like the Reds did against Carpenter the last time out? What will that say?

reds44
07-16-2011, 05:34 PM
Heisey starting again tonight in LF vs Carpenter. To answer some of your concerns, games like these will go a long way towards making me a believer in what he is doing. Beating up 2nd and 3rd rate pitchers is great and all, but producing versus some better pitchers in the league is a different story.

And I know what the knee-jerk response is going to be,(and to answer that before the game), if he takes the collar with 2 Ks it won't "prove" anything on its own. But if Heisey stings a few balls in the gap or down the line, my comfort level will definitely move in the right direction regarding him as a consistent starter. And if he looks completely overwhelmed, that's not that great either.
I don't understand why you refuse to look at his biggest number of AB and continue to try to judge him in little sample sizes.

His season numbers (and career numbers) say he's a good hitter.

Brutus
07-16-2011, 05:46 PM
Heisey starting again tonight in LF vs Carpenter. To answer some of your concerns, games like these will go a long way towards making me a believer in what he is doing. Beating up 2nd and 3rd rate pitchers is great and all, but producing versus some better pitchers in the league is a different story.

And I know what the knee-jerk response is going to be,(and to answer that before the game), if he takes the collar with 2 Ks it won't "prove" anything on its own. But if Heisey stings a few balls in the gap or down the line, my comfort level will definitely move in the right direction regarding him as a consistent starter. And if he looks completely overwhelmed, that's not that great either.

Not too many guys are able to beat up 1st rate pitchers. I'd imagine that a good deal of most players' production comes against guys like that. That's why they're 2nd and 3rd rate pitchers.

nate
07-16-2011, 06:18 PM
I don't understand why you refuse to look at his biggest number of AB and continue to try to judge him in little sample sizes.

His season numbers (and career numbers) say he's a good hitter.

Well, they say he's hit well so far and should probably get more opportunities regardless how he does tonight.

Caveat Emperor
07-16-2011, 06:33 PM
EDIT: Wow, Sappelt's numbers have fallen off a cliff.

When guys come out of nowhere to put up huge numbers, it's usually a good idea to make sure they don't fade back to nowhere before you annoint them as saviors.

nate
07-16-2011, 06:41 PM
When guys come out of nowhere to put up huge numbers, it's usually a good idea to make sure they don't fade back to nowhere before you annoint them as saviors.

Anointing is so messy!

:cool:

edabbs44
07-16-2011, 07:06 PM
When guys come out of nowhere to put up huge numbers, it's usually a good idea to make sure they don't fade back to nowhere before you annoint them as saviors.

I know I'm shocked that he isn't still putting up Votto like numbers.

edabbs44
07-16-2011, 07:11 PM
Not too many guys are able to beat up 1st rate pitchers. I'd imagine that a good deal of most players' production comes against guys like that. That's why they're 2nd and 3rd rate pitchers.

While true, it is also reasonable to assume that guys who shouild be "everyday starters" on teams with playoff hopes do produce some versus top pitchers. I love the fact that he can have multi-HR games versus guys who are either not in the majors anymore or guys with 5 ERAs. It's part of the game. But I also want to see them do something versus better pitchers.

Heisey's been spotted by Dusty and has put up numbers. Then, when the heat is on to play him more, he tends not to do as well. Maybe it's b/c he then is seeing every pitcher and not just who Dusty wants to play him against?

Maybe. But if he can get some knocks against better pitchers, I'll feel better about him playing everyday.

reds44
07-16-2011, 07:31 PM
While true, it is also reasonable to assume that guys who shouild be "everyday starters" on teams with playoff hopes do produce some versus top pitchers. I love the fact that he can have multi-HR games versus guys who are either not in the majors anymore or guys with 5 ERAs. It's part of the game. But I also want to see them do something versus better pitchers.

Heisey's been spotted by Dusty and has put up numbers. Then, when the heat is on to play him more, he tends not to do as well. Maybe it's b/c he then is seeing every pitcher and not just who Dusty wants to play him against?

Maybe. But if he can get some knocks against better pitchers, I'll feel better about him playing everyday.
This isn't true.

edabbs44
07-16-2011, 08:54 PM
This isn't true.

Unsure that you can say that definitively.

Tony Cloninger
07-17-2011, 02:44 PM
This isn't true.


It looks more true than your argument. Dusty, in the end...has spotted him very well. Did you see how badly he was fooled after he had been up 3-0 last night? Especially on the 3-2 pitch. As good as he can look ...especially on inside pitches..... he looks bad on outside pitches and when he starts playing every day.

nate
07-17-2011, 08:22 PM
It looks more true than your argument. Dusty, in the end...has spotted him very well. Did you see how badly he was fooled after he had been up 3-0 last night? Especially on the 3-2 pitch. As good as he can look ...especially on inside pitches..... he looks bad on outside pitches and when he starts playing every day.

Where can I see the "looks bad on outside pitches when playing every day" split?

I'd like to see how he fares vs. the league.

Tony Cloninger
07-17-2011, 08:35 PM
Where can I see the "looks bad on outside pitches when playing every day" split?

I'd like to see how he fares vs. the league.


I meant to say he looks bad trying to hit pitches on the outside AND as he starts playing on a regular basis.....he tends to not do much as he becomes over exposed. Others have written his problem in hitting the outside pitches. His inability to walk much, and maybe you can say this is a product of not playing much..... but I just think it works against him playing every day. Someone pointed out to me that his OBP is less than .320. Sure only 375 AB's or so....but it's still enough of a pattern to show some concern.

I would still have no problem him starting in LF but do not think he would do much more than Gomes did last year.....which right now, would not be a bad thing the way the 4th spot in the order has done.

reds44
07-17-2011, 08:41 PM
His career BA/OB split is .066. I wouldn't say he has an inability to walk much as much as he doesn't have a high batting average.

nate
07-18-2011, 12:09 AM
I meant to say he looks bad trying to hit pitches on the outside AND as he starts playing on a regular basis.....he tends to not do much as he becomes over exposed. Others have written his problem in hitting the outside pitches. His inability to walk much, and maybe you can say this is a product of not playing much..... but I just think it works against him playing every day. Someone pointed out to me that his OBP is less than .320. Sure only 375 AB's or so....but it's still enough of a pattern to show some concern.

I would still have no problem him starting in LF but do not think he would do much more than Gomes did last year.....which right now, would not be a bad thing the way the 4th spot in the order has done.

Every player looks bad sometimes. Especially hitters.

Tidbit: Heisey has a career .336 wOBA. That's pretty much average combined with a average to above average glove. I'd rather have that combination than one that nets out below average. Not the best situation but it's the best they can do with what they currently have.

Homer Bailey
07-20-2011, 11:00 AM
My goodness Heisey has a .305 OBP.

Tony Cloninger
07-20-2011, 11:32 AM
Every player looks bad sometimes. Especially hitters.

Tidbit: Heisey has a career .336 wOBA. That's pretty much average combined with a average to above average glove. I'd rather have that combination than one that nets out below average. Not the best situation but it's the best they can do with what they currently have.

Try batting him 4th. No one else seems to be able to do it

signalhome
07-20-2011, 11:43 AM
My goodness Heisey has a .305 OBP.

Wow, that's a lot worse than I thought. My eyes deceive me; I thought he had gotten on base at a clip at least similar to Stubbs, but that couldn't be further from the truth.

However, he is sporting a .472 SLG; that helps out quite a bit.

Mario-Rijo
07-20-2011, 12:02 PM
Heisey is best in moderation at the moment or as a sub for Stubbs and every once in a blue moon for Bruce. This whole lineup with exception to Joey, Brandon, 3B and the catchers swing and miss way too much. Sappelt as the LF starter would be a big difference maker IMO. And Heisey is the supersub for the OF's and a solid RH bat off the bench is the proper role for him right now. The guy still isn't getting his hands down into hitting position quite soon enough.