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Sea Ray
06-14-2011, 12:22 PM
That's the question this article writes:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/12015/is-adam-dunn-in-a-slump-or-washed-up

In it he is compared to other sluggers who lost it in their early 30s, Greg Luzinski, Dale Murphy, Pat Burrell, and Richie Sexon

It's not just this year. The Nats were concerned about a late August slump last year too:

http://www.natsinsider.com/2010/08/slumping-slugger-in-slumping-lineup.html

He has one (infield) single vs LHPs this year in 47 ABs. I gotta think Bill Bray could do as well if you put him in the batters box 47 times vs lefties. Of course he hasn't lost his ability to strike out; still leading the league there.

I thought he'd drop off in his 30s but not this soon and this much.

I got a kick out of this:


http://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/players/adam_dunn/181

A site dedicated to rumors and gossip surrounding just Adam Dunn. With all the discussion around him during his time as a Red I'm surprised no one came up with this sort of thing around here.

NJReds
06-14-2011, 12:28 PM
Somewhere, BadFundamentals/PRose14 is smiling.

IslandRed
06-14-2011, 12:34 PM
Not sure where you got "other RH sluggers," since Dunn isn't a right-handed hitter and the article gives examples of sluggers in general, not right-handed hitters specifically.

But yeah, this line of thinking has been around awhile -- I know in that "Baseball By The Numbers" book a few years ago, they detailed this specific kind of player as one who declined earlier and faster than the typical player. "This specific kind of player" being summarized as having an old player body and old player skills at a relatively young age. I remember it being brought up a few years ago in his walk year when the hot question was about whether to offer him a long-term contract.

Sea Ray
06-14-2011, 12:39 PM
Not sure where you got "other RH sluggers," since Dunn isn't a right-handed hitter and the article gives examples of sluggers in general, not right-handed hitters specifically.



Excellent point. Must be my dyslexia...:redface:

Brutus
06-14-2011, 12:52 PM
I think everyone knew Dunn's body type was subject to more premature deterioration than other players. I just don't know if it was expected to happen so soon or as rapid. Of course, David Ortiz showed signs of losing it entirely a few years ago, but has since gotten back on track. This could be a false positive, but I tend to think some of it is losing some of the bat speed associated with the aging process.

If he's still hitting this poorly at the All-Star break, we might have our answer. Right now I think the jury is still out a bit.

Unassisted
06-14-2011, 01:00 PM
I got a kick out of this:


http://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/players/adam_dunn/181 (http://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/players/adam_dunn/181)

A site dedicated to rumors and gossip surrounding just Adam Dunn. With all the discussion around him during his time as a Red I'm surprised no one came up with this sort of thing around here.

The headlines alone at that site are brutal. If those represent the popular sentiment and Dunn played in the outfield, I wonder what kind of nasty greetings he would receive coming out of the stands at US Cellular Field?

Patrick Bateman
06-14-2011, 01:04 PM
Starting last year, once his walks began to decline, I felt like that might be the tell-tale sign. If he is feeling like his bat speed is decreasing to the point he has to cheat on pitches outside the zone, then he is going to go down fast, because without the walks, he is just a homerun hitter, and the Dave Kingman comps can actually be relevant.

But if it's just a slump, or a change in approach for whatever reason, the sample size is of course too small right now to say 100%.

But I think the slipper slope has begun, and the signs started last season (despite still very strong numbers).

TRF
06-14-2011, 01:35 PM
He changed leagues, something that is advantageous to pitchers when they do it, but hitters, not so much.

bucksfan2
06-14-2011, 01:41 PM
I think everyone knew Dunn's body type was subject to more premature deterioration than other players. I just don't know if it was expected to happen so soon or as rapid. Of course, David Ortiz showed signs of losing it entirely a few years ago, but has since gotten back on track. This could be a false positive, but I tend to think some of it is losing some of the bat speed associated with the aging process.

If he's still hitting this poorly at the All-Star break, we might have our answer. Right now I think the jury is still out a bit.

I haven't watched enough of Ortiz to really know exactly but doesn't he have a more compact swing? He is also a couple of inches shorter than Dunn and would have somewhat of a smaller strike zone.

I always thought that Dunn had a very long swing. It led to his high strike out rate but immense power when he made contact with the ball. As mentioned above when you lose some bat speed and begin to cheat on pitches that long swing becomes even longer. I don't know if he is in a slump or not but I think Dunn is the type of guy who will not age well baseball wise.

Ghosts of 1990
06-14-2011, 01:51 PM
I have heard everything from he can't catch up to fastballs anymore to scouts saying he is mechanically fine and will have a big second half and that it's simply a bad slump that can be attributed to the change in leagues.

I do remember reading when he was a young player someone like Bill James said that Dunn would not age well and that he would basically lose it overnight in terms of ability. It's been in the back of my mind with this slump.

cincrazy
06-14-2011, 02:30 PM
I don't think he's washed up, per se, but I think the decline has begun, and the next exit off the career highway is most assuredly Washedupsville.

NJReds
06-14-2011, 02:41 PM
He changed leagues, something that is advantageous to pitchers when they do it, but hitters, not so much.

I wonder if being a full time DH has added to Dunn's problems.

In NY, Posada really struggled with converting to a full-time DH, although he's also at an age where you'd expect a decline.

AtomicDumpling
06-14-2011, 02:49 PM
I think Dunn's current slump is a function of the league switch and the emergency appendectomy surgery. He will soon be back to producing runs at an exemplary rate once again. Most players start to decline at Dunn's age so his best days are likely behind him but I predict quite a few more dented baseballs in his future. Dunn is far from done.

CTA513
06-14-2011, 02:50 PM
Changing leagues and becoming a DH instead of a position player would be my guess.

KronoRed
06-14-2011, 03:02 PM
Somewhere, BadFundamentals/PRose14 is smiling.

Some people in the reds radio booth smiling too. ;)

Big Klu
06-14-2011, 03:32 PM
I think Dunn's current slump is a function of the league switch and the emergency appendectomy surgery. He will soon be back to producing runs at an exemplary rate once again. Most players start to decline at Dunn's age so his best days are likely behind him but I predict quite a few more dented baseballs in his future. Dunn is far from done.

His power will still play. (I remember an announcer--I think it was Tony Kubek--saying about 43-year-old Tony Perez that power is the last thing to go.) But the rest of Dunn's game will not age well.

Sea Ray
06-14-2011, 04:24 PM
His power will still play. (I remember an announcer--I think it was Tony Kubek--saying about 43-year-old Tony Perez that power is the last thing to go.) But the rest of Dunn's game will not age well.

I agree with you but where's his power this year?

Sea Ray
07-11-2011, 11:34 AM
I disagree with Kevin Millar:


Millar: "Adam Dunn hits 25 home runs in the second half. He had a miserable first half with all the strikeouts, but you have to go with a man's track record. He's not going to hit 12 home runs this year. White Sox make the playoffs and Dunn dominates the second half."



Read more: http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2011-07-10/season-in-reviewpreview-mlb-network-experts-weigh-in?icid=main%7Chtmlws-main-n%7Cdl5%7Csec1_lnk1%7C218551#ixzz1RoLbLCcU

Adam Dunn looks like a left handed Steve Balboni right now. He won't recover his stroke until he loses a bunch of weight and that won't happen magically after the All Star break. If he comes to Spring Training next year like Berkman did this year then he's got a chance. His bat is looking real slow right now

mbgrayson
07-11-2011, 11:41 AM
In case you haven't looked lately, here are Dunn's stats at the break:

.160/.292/.305 for an OPS of .597, with 9 HRs, and 117 Ks in 316 plate appearances.

nemesis
07-11-2011, 12:26 PM
In case you haven't looked lately, here are Dunn's stats at the break:

.160/.292/.305 for an OPS of .597, with 9 HRs, and 117 Ks in 316 plate appearances.

Wow. Washington made the right call on that one. Wrong call on Werth, but a great call on Dunn.

Ghosts of 1990
07-11-2011, 12:44 PM
I agree that Dunn is out of shape.

He's got to get into the best shape of his life to have any chance at getting his career back on track. The numbers on FanGraphs shows that teams are throwing him more fastballs than ever before (92.1%) and he's hitting more fly balls than ever before. Very weak fly balls.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=319&position=OF

Indicative of the bat speed lacking. He has to lose some weight and get stronger or he's going to ride off into the sunset and make me look foolish for saying he'll hit 500 home runs in his sleep, clean.

Sea Ray
07-11-2011, 02:07 PM
In case you haven't looked lately, here are Dunn's stats at the break:

.160/.292/.305 for an OPS of .597, with 9 HRs, and 117 Ks in 316 plate appearances.

And he's had one hit this month that wasn't a HR. One.

I watched him over the weekend to see for myself and he's lucky to hit foul balls between the dugouts and the field. His bat is dragging and looks dumpy and overweight

CTA513
07-11-2011, 02:58 PM
Wow. Washington made the right call on that one. Wrong call on Werth, but a great call on Dunn.

They made a horrible call on Werth.
Even if he did what he did in Philly he still wasn't worth the contract they gave him.

CTA513
07-11-2011, 03:07 PM
And he's had one hit this month that wasn't a HR. One.

I watched him over the weekend to see for myself and he's lucky to hit foul balls between the dugouts and the field. His bat is dragging and looks dumpy and overweight

I wonder how many foul balls would be put in play if he didn't have such a wide open pull stance.

Unassisted
07-18-2011, 11:56 AM
http://www.csnchicago.com/07/17/11/Dunns-swoon-reaching-historic-proportion/landing_insider_ballantini_loud3r.html


With another three strikeouts punctuating an 0-for-4 day, Dunn’s batting average has now fallen to .159, a low of historic proportions. Per the research of John Autin at Baseball-Reference, Dunn is not only hitting worse than anyone ever has by virtue of even the widest definition of the modern era, his average is now worse than any player ever, dating back to 1893.

Famed all-or-nothing slugger Rob Deer — who’s beginning to look more and more like an accurate comp for Dunn, as the White Sox slugger seems to be sliding off into the sunset — is the current “modern era leader” for lowest average on a season (.179 in 1991), yet remains a full 20 points better than Dunn. Only one other hitter, Eddie Joost, who hit .185 in 1943, has finished worse than .190.

Homer Bailey
07-18-2011, 12:08 PM
I agree that Dunn is out of shape.

He's got to get into the best shape of his life to have any chance at getting his career back on track. The numbers on FanGraphs shows that teams are throwing him more fastballs than ever before (92.1%) and he's hitting more fly balls than ever before. Very weak fly balls.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=319&position=OF

Indicative of the bat speed lacking. He has to lose some weight and get stronger or he's going to ride off into the sunset and make me look foolish for saying he'll hit 500 home runs in his sleep, clean.

He is seeing more fastballs than ever before, but he's only seeing 63.5%. You're looking at average velocity.

Brutus
07-18-2011, 01:54 PM
I really thought Dunn would fall off the map quickly when he lost it, I just didn't think it would be this soon. He's brutally awful right now.

Roy Tucker
07-18-2011, 02:33 PM
I think 50 years from now, RZ will still be talking about Adam Dunn.

medford
07-18-2011, 02:36 PM
Question, if Adam Dunn hung up the bat for the remainder of the season, would he have enough at bats to qualify for the worst batting average ever, or does he need to keep hitting (or batting while not hitting) in order to officially claim that title, assuming of course he doesn't revert to the back of his baseball card before the season expires?

CTA513
07-18-2011, 02:37 PM
I think 50 years from now, RZ will still be talking about Adam Dunn.

:thumbup:

Danny Serafini
07-18-2011, 03:08 PM
Question, if Adam Dunn hung up the bat for the remainder of the season, would he have enough at bats to qualify for the worst batting average ever, or does he need to keep hitting (or batting while not hitting) in order to officially claim that title, assuming of course he doesn't revert to the back of his baseball card before the season expires?

He's nowhere close right now, but at the pace he's going he'll easily qualify. You need 502 plate appearances to be eligible, and if my math is accurate he's on pace for 571. Right now he has 335.

medford
07-18-2011, 03:47 PM
He's nowhere close right now, but at the pace he's going he'll easily qualify. You need 502 plate appearances to be eligible, and if my math is accurate he's on pace for 571. Right now he has 335.

Thanks, I assumed they used the typical battage average leader qualifiers, but wasn't sure w/ a low end stat as guys of that pace are likely to play less. I wonder what will happen with Adam in say 150 more plate apperances. Will they sit him w/ a fake injury to protect him from the embaresment, or will they play him every day and allow him the chance to break above the low mark.

anyhoo, if my calcs are correct, assuming his current walk rate continues, he'll need to bat about .235 the rest of the season to get to the .185 mark in 502 plate apperances and above the historical low mark. Even in his best years, .235 for Dunn over the coarse of 70 some games was no garuntee. Likely, but not a lock. Should be interesting 2nd half for him.

The White Sox owe him $44 mil over the next 3 years. Even in that large market, that's a big ol' "gulp".

westofyou
07-18-2011, 05:08 PM
Epic bad season for sure, he wouldn't be the 1st player to fall off the map quickly, the game is littered with them. He'll have a chance to play it out though, he's costing a pretty penny currently.

http://baseballmusings.com/?p=71804

Bill James introduced this in his early Abstracts, batting average as a percentage of offense. At that time (the early 1980s), fans were more likely to look at a player’s BA than his OBP or slugging percentage. By looking at the percentage of offense due to batting average, you could get an idea of how much the player contributed beyond singles.


Hitter OS Area BA Area BA Pct
Adam Dunn 0.088 0.022 0.246
Chris Iannetta 0.153 0.038 0.251
Mark Reynolds 0.162 0.041 0.256
Jonny Gomes 0.138 0.037 0.271
Jose Bautista 0.329 0.089 0.272
Carlos Pena 0.145 0.040 0.274
Carlos Santana 0.157 0.043 0.275
Mark Teixeira 0.173 0.049 0.283
Lance Berkman 0.238 0.067 0.284
Prince Fielder 0.242 0.073 0.302
Curtis Granderson 0.206 0.063 0.306
Jack Cust 0.112 0.035 0.314
Carlos Quentin 0.182 0.058 0.319
Ian Kinsler 0.168 0.054 0.320
Kevin Youkilis 0.203 0.066 0.325


Note that his says nothing about the quality of the player. Jose Bautista is one of the best hitters in the game today, Adam Dunn’s season leaves much to be desired. With the MLB average of OBP at .319 and slugging at .391, an average OS Area would be .125.

CTA513
07-18-2011, 05:45 PM
He could probably help himself out by losing some weight.

savafan
07-18-2011, 08:18 PM
Unfortunately, I just feel that Dunn is a lazy player who doesn't seem to want to improve. In hindsight, it looks like J.P. Ricciardi was correct about him.

edabbs44
07-18-2011, 08:28 PM
Unfortunately, I just feel that Dunn is a lazy player who doesn't seem to want to improve. In hindsight, it looks like J.P. Ricciardi was correct about him.

Maybe others as well.

Raisor
07-18-2011, 08:48 PM
Yes he's having a horrible season, but let's not forget that over the last three seasons
he's put up a .255/.380/.526/.906 line.

westofyou
07-18-2011, 08:55 PM
Yes he's having a horrible season, but let's not forget that over the last three seasons
he's put up a .255/.380/.526/.906 line.
Nah he's lazy don't you know these 300 pa's validate years of misinformation? Grab a clue dude!

Always Red
07-18-2011, 09:09 PM
Nah he's lazy don't you know these 300 pa's validate years of misinformation? Grab a clue dude!

I bet Earl Lawson would have agreed that Dunn is a fat lazy slob.

Matt700wlw
07-18-2011, 09:10 PM
He's definitely in a major funk.

Who knows if you can get out of it. Only time will tell.

Patrick Bateman
07-18-2011, 09:36 PM
Unfortunately, I just feel that Dunn is a lazy player who doesn't seem to want to improve. In hindsight, it looks like J.P. Ricciardi was correct about him.

And I thought I was the "Bateman".

Dunn's decline is not a huge surprise considering the type of player he is. Once the bat speed goes, he wont always hit that meat ball picth he can hit.

In his prime he was a great hitter. His current decline has nothing to do with laziness. It's called a decline for a reason. He's not as good as he used to be. It's not a matter of improving. Players with his career arch almost never improve. Its not like he has two buttons to push in front of him "improve" or "decline" and he has stubbornly decided not to press the "improve" button.

savafan
07-18-2011, 10:46 PM
And I thought I was the "Bateman".

Dunn's decline is not a huge surprise considering the type of player he is. Once the bat speed goes, he wont always hit that meat ball picth he can hit.

In his prime he was a great hitter. His current decline has nothing to do with laziness. It's called a decline for a reason. He's not as good as he used to be. It's not a matter of improving. Players with his career arch almost never improve. Its not like he has two buttons to push in front of him "improve" or "decline" and he has stubbornly decided not to press the "improve" button.

Sure, anyone can improve if they put some effort behind it. Dunn never really showed effort. For as great a player as Griffey Jr. was, I feel that his bad conditioning and practice skills rubbed off on young players like Dunn and Kearns.

edabbs44
07-18-2011, 10:51 PM
And I thought I was the "Bateman".

Dunn's decline is not a huge surprise considering the type of player he is. Once the bat speed goes, he wont always hit that meat ball picth he can hit.

In his prime he was a great hitter. His current decline has nothing to do with laziness. It's called a decline for a reason. He's not as good as he used to be. It's not a matter of improving. Players with his career arch almost never improve. Its not like he has two buttons to push in front of him "improve" or "decline" and he has stubbornly decided not to press the "improve" button.

There's a difference btw a decline and a collapse. If this holds true, this is one of the fastest (likely) non-PED related declines ever.

Patrick Bateman
07-18-2011, 10:53 PM
Sure, anyone can improve if they put some effort behind it. Dunn never really showed effort. For as great a player as Griffey Jr. was, I feel that his bad conditioning and practice skills rubbed off on young players like Dunn and Kearns.

Okay, didn't realize you were a member of the clubhouse everyday.

It is one thing to speculate, but your acusations are completely baseless and unfounded, and are the types of posts that generally lead to mean spirited debates in the past.

Adam Dunn was a very good player and for the most part appeared to be in strong physical condition for his size. He was just a flawed player in a few aspects.

Ken Griffey Jr. is almost literally on his third pair of legs. That's not an effort issue. It's extreme bad luck and part of the aging curve.

Patrick Bateman
07-18-2011, 10:54 PM
There's a difference btw a decline and a collapse. If this holds true, this is one of the fastest (likely) non-PED related declines ever.

True, but not a complete outlier.

I think it's little more than a hypothesis to say it's due to lack of effort considering he has been basically the same player since he came into the majors.

Why did he suddenly stop trying this year?

edabbs44
07-18-2011, 10:55 PM
True, but not a complete outlier.

I think it's little more than a hypothesis to say it's due to lack of effort considering he has been basically the same player since he came into the majors.

Why did he suddenly stop trying this year?

Big contract could be one hypothesis.

savafan
07-18-2011, 11:08 PM
Okay, didn't realize you were a member of the clubhouse everyday.

It is one thing to speculate, but your acusations are completely baseless and unfounded, and are the types of posts that generally lead to mean spirited debates in the past.

Adam Dunn was a very good player and for the most part appeared to be in strong physical condition for his size. He was just a flawed player in a few aspects.

Ken Griffey Jr. is almost literally on his third pair of legs. That's not an effort issue. It's extreme bad luck and part of the aging curve.

I didn't make an accusation, I said "I feel..." that's an opinion, and one that I hold. I'm sure I'm not alone. Those who were running the club at the time, as well as those in the media, broadcast booth and in other teams' front offices held the same opinion. I was a fan of all three of the players I mentioned, and I still hold out hope that the two who still play will make something of themselves. Sure Junior's legs were shot, but do you think if he had taken better care of himself and put some effort into conditioning rather than rely on his God given abilities that would still have been the case? There are some hard truths in life, and sometimes you just have to face them, no matter how much you don't want to accept them.

Patrick Bateman
07-18-2011, 11:12 PM
I didn't make an accusation, I said "I feel..." that's an opinion, and one that I hold. I'm sure I'm not alone. Those who were running the club at the time, as well as those in the media, broadcast booth and in other teams' front offices held the same opinion. I was a fan of all three of the players I mentioned, and I still hold out hope that the two who still play will make something of themselves. Sure Junior's legs were shot, but do you think if he had taken better care of himself and put some effort into conditioning rather than rely on his God given abilities that would still have been the case? There are some hard truths in life, and sometimes you just have to face them, no matter how much you don't want to accept them.

Griffey was in athlete physical condition pre injury.

westofyou
07-18-2011, 11:15 PM
I blame DiMaggio for Mantles drinking too.

Doesn't make me Hitler...or does it?

KronoRed
07-18-2011, 11:36 PM
Nice to see some things around RZ never change.

Johnny Footstool
07-19-2011, 12:49 AM
People were saying all this same stuff about David Ortiz back in 2009. Granted, his slump that year wasn't quite as dismal as the one Dunn is in, but he managed to snap out of it.

Sea Ray
07-19-2011, 08:41 AM
I think 50 years from now, RZ will still be talking about Adam Dunn.

I know what you mean but with stuff like this, you've got to keep talking about him:


Adam Dunn is definitely on his way to a Hall of Fame career in my opinion.



If this doesn't convince folks that we're watching a Hall of Famer in the making, nothing will. http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45752

Boss-Hog
07-19-2011, 09:03 AM
Nice to see some things around RZ never change.

Thanks for adding so much to the discussion.

REDREAD
07-19-2011, 09:16 AM
The Reds were hellbent on running out Jr on to the field, even if it was on crutches.. In hindsight now, it's even more obvious. Carl planned to sell the team after the reaping in the money from the "new park" factor. The plan was that Jr would sell tickets to a horrible team in the meantime.. Remember when Jr was cleared to pinch hit and reinjured himself?
If Jr had competent medical care and an owner that cared about the longterm, his career probably would've been better here. No way to know for sure. There's no way one can question Jr's competitive spirit.. he gave up a lot of money to come here, because he thought the team was going to contend. And he did work out hard.. It's just that everything seemed to come to Jr so easy. I don't think it's fair to question Jr's work ethic.

Dunn, it's hard to say. Sure, he could lose a little weight. Most of us could.
But Dunn is young enough to get another sizable contract after this White Sox job is up, if he puts up the numbers. Dunn was a 2 sport star.. If he was just a one sport star, he would've been a first round draft pick in baseball. It's just hard for me to believe that a 2 sport athlete was just plain lazy.
Yes, people get complacent after success.. However, some guys will never become great defensive players, no matter how much effort and fielding practice they put in..

There's this American myth that anyone can do anything, if only they try hard enough.. And thus we apply the converse as well.. if someone fails, they didn't try hard enough.. IMO, that's not fair.

Sea Ray
07-19-2011, 09:23 AM
The Reds were hellbent on running out Jr on to the field, even if it was on crutches.. In hindsight now, it's even more obvious. Carl planned to sell the team after the reaping in the money from the "new park" factor. The plan was that Jr would sell tickets to a horrible team in the meantime.. Remember when Jr was cleared to pinch hit and reinjured himself?
If Jr had competent medical care and an owner that cared about the longterm, his career probably would've been better here. No way to know for sure. There's no way one can question Jr's competitive spirit.. he gave up a lot of money to come here, because he thought the team was going to contend. And he did work out hard.. It's just that everything seemed to come to Jr so easy. I don't think it's fair to question Jr's work ethic.

Even Jr admitted that he didn't workout like he should in his 20s but more than anything else I think Jr's problems stemmed from normal aging in a steroid era. As of 2000 we got used to players excelling into their late 30s and early 40s. I don't think we'll see as much of that now




Dunn, it's hard to say. Sure, he could lose a little weight. Most of us could.
But Dunn is young enough to get another sizable contract after this White Sox job is up, if he puts up the numbers. Dunn was a 2 sport star.. If he was just a one sport star, he would've been a first round draft pick in baseball. It's just hard for me to believe that a 2 sport athlete was just plain lazy.
Yes, people get complacent after success.. However, some guys will never become great defensive players, no matter how much effort and fielding practice they put in..

There's this American myth that anyone can do anything, if only they try hard enough.. And thus we apply the converse as well.. if someone fails, they didn't try hard enough.. IMO, that's not fair.

As for Dunn we don't hear about him studying his craft like we do Joey Votto nor do we hear about him working out like Nolan Ryan. In fact we can just look at him and tell he's not a fitness guy. I don't think that makes him lazy but that doesn't make him a hard worker either. I don't think anyone can continue to excel in professional sports into his 30s without working at it.

signalhome
07-19-2011, 10:43 AM
There's this American myth that anyone can do anything, if only they try hard enough.. And thus we apply the converse as well.. if someone fails, they didn't try hard enough.. IMO, that's not fair.

I love this statement. There's no denying that working hard helps tremendously, but that will only take you so far.

We don't know anything regarding how hard someone works. Ryan Freel appeared to hustle a lot more than Dunn out on the field, and he was certainly less-gifted than Dunn, so some people assume that Freel was the hardest-working of the two, since in spite of all his shortcomings, he still made it to the show. However, I don't believe that is entirely fair. We have no idea which player worked harder off the field to get to where they are. As a sports nation, we seem to have this fascination with the small, scrappy guy that succeeds. Whenever a player fitting this mold is successful, we immediately build this narrative around him, weaving this beautiful, moving story about the small guy who never gave up and worked harder than everyone else around him to get where he is (read: Woodhead, Danny). Truthfully, we have no idea whether Woodhead worked harder than Adrian Peterson growing up, or whether Darwin Barney spent more time in the cages than Hanley Ramirez, but it makes for a good story, so we run with it.

KronoRed
07-19-2011, 03:58 PM
Thanks for adding so much to the discussion.

What discussion? it's the same old discussion from years past, slightly amusing now that he's not even a Red.

But on that note...all we have for the 'Dunn is lazy' argument is hearesay and trashing from cranks on the radio and in the paper who were slamming Dunn as early as 2002 because he wasn't a .300 hitter, it's crud and always has been, only guy who knows if Dunn is lazy is Dunn.

corkedbat
07-19-2011, 04:02 PM
Even Jr admitted that he didn't workout like he should in his 20s but more than anything else I think Jr's problems stemmed from normal aging in a steroid era. As of 2000 we got used to players excelling into their late 30s and early 40s. I don't think we'll see as much of that now



As for Dunn we don't hear about him studying his craft like we do Joey Votto nor do we hear about him working out like Nolan Ryan. In fact we can just look at him and tell he's not a fitness guy. I don't think that makes him lazy but that doesn't make him a hard worker either. I don't think anyone can continue to excel in professional sports into his 30s without working at it.

Maybe he just swallowed a Dwarf. Not sure being a cannibal beats lazy though. :evil:

medford
07-19-2011, 04:24 PM
What discussion? it's the same old discussion from years past, slightly amusing now that he's not even a Red.

But on that note...all we have for the 'Dunn is lazy' argument is hearesay and trashing from cranks on the radio and in the paper who were slamming Dunn as early as 2002 because he wasn't a .300 hitter, it's crud and always has been, only guy who knows if Dunn is lazy is Dunn.

I don't believe that's true for a second. Not that I would know one way or the other, but the coaches and his teammates, if they're honest with themselves probably have a pretty good idea if Dunn was lazy and did less than the minimum, did just enough to be good, did everything he could to be solid, or worked even harder than that to be "all that he could be". Play team sports long enough, its pretty easy to seperate those that work as hard as expected from those that just go thru the motions or are regularly out of shape. Some in sports are just a cut above the rest, no matter how little they put into it. I was never under the impression that Kevin Mitchell did much more than roll out of bed and mash, which is what makes it tough for the average fan to really know how hard any individual player works w/o being around the team on a daily basis.

Boss-Hog
07-19-2011, 04:49 PM
What discussion? it's the same old discussion from years past, slightly amusing now that he's not even a Red.

But on that note...all we have for the 'Dunn is lazy' argument is hearesay and trashing from cranks on the radio and in the paper who were slamming Dunn as early as 2002 because he wasn't a .300 hitter, it's crud and always has been, only guy who knows if Dunn is lazy is Dunn.

Though I don't agree with most of your second paragraph - particularly the bolded section for the reasons medford mentioned, it at least advanced the discussion (even if you don't consider it a discussion). Your first post did nothing along those lines - it was an obvious potshot presumably because you don't like the topic and we can do without those kind of remarks.

CrackerJack
07-19-2011, 06:08 PM
Dag nabit, never saw Babe Ruth "workout" in the off-season, did ya? Look what he did!

And by golly did ya ever see Johnny Knuckles running sprints and lifting weights? Heck no! He was out in them fields balin' hay in the off season and drinkin' until 4am and spittin' tabaccy, didn't effect him none! No sirrree.

That Dunn guy likes him some fishin' and potato chips, and he could stand up there and swat it with the best of 'em, until he turned 30 and got old and rickety-like.

Who needs weight-liftin' and eatin' right and keepin' in shape these days I tell ya, there's no need.

chicoruiz
07-19-2011, 08:26 PM
The last guy I remember this happening to was Alvin Davis of the Mariners. He wasn't the power hitter Dunn was, but he was often cited as a player with "old player's skills", and he went off the tracks at about the same age, I think.

Raisor
07-19-2011, 08:31 PM
The last guy I remember this happening to was Alvin Davis of the Mariners. He wasn't the power hitter Dunn was, but he was often cited as a player with "old player's skills", and he went off the tracks at about the same age, I think.

I had a serious man crush on Alvin back when I was a kid.

Blitz Dorsey
07-19-2011, 11:17 PM
The last guy I remember this happening to was Alvin Davis of the Mariners. He wasn't the power hitter Dunn was, but he was often cited as a player with "old player's skills", and he went off the tracks at about the same age, I think.

Wow, that's a good memory. I remember Alvin Davis well. Just because of my baseball card obsession during the 80's ... but still.

Unassisted
07-21-2011, 02:22 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_adam_dunn_slump_quitting_072011


Adam Dunn is talking about quitting. He’s talking about it like he’s been thinking about it, like it’s always a possibility, a failsafe if this misery continues. And then he’s talking about it like the chances of him doing it are infinitesimal because he adores baseball, even as it corrodes his sense of self. And then he’s talking about it like he’s not sure what he thinks, which tends to happen when a 31-year-old with 363 career home runs suddenly forgets how to hit a baseball.

“If I’m not having fun anymore, I’ll go home,” Dunn told Yahoo! Sports. “Flat out. I’ll go home. I mean that. Swear to goodness. I’ll. Go. Home. I enjoy playing. Even though I suck. Or have been sucking. I enjoy playing the game. Love it. But as soon as I lose that, I’m gone, dude. It’s true.

Sea Ray
07-21-2011, 03:52 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_adam_dunn_slump_quitting_072011

Of course in fairness, he also said this about quitting:


Even if he talks about quitting, he cannot imagine taking the leap.

“It’s not going to happen,” he says. “Zero chance. Zero. You can’t get this competition anywhere else, dude. I don’t care where you look. Nowhere else. It’s one-on-one, dude. And you can’t find that anywhere. …

There's too much money on the table to quit. The question is how much are the Chisox going to continue to play him? Thanks to the DH they can give him a little more leeway but they've already reduced his play to that of a platoon and with his numbers vs LHPs, who can blame them?

CTA513
07-21-2011, 04:18 PM
Fake.
everyone knows he doesn't care.

Dan
07-21-2011, 04:26 PM
The last guy I remember this happening to was Alvin Davis of the Mariners. He wasn't the power hitter Dunn was, but he was often cited as a player with "old player's skills", and he went off the tracks at about the same age, I think.

Richie Sexson and Pat Burrell both have had it happen recently.

Sexson is a great comp. Here's him going over a cliff:



2006 31 SEA AL 158 663 591 75 156 40 0 34 107 1 1 64 154 .264 .338 .504 .842
2007 32 SEA AL 121 491 434 58 89 21 0 21 63 1 0 51 100 .205 .295 .399 .694
2008 33 TOT AL 96 327 280 29 62 9 0 12 36 1 0 43 86 .221 .321 .382 .703

Chip R
07-21-2011, 04:39 PM
I'll bet that Dunn's name is going to wind up in the "Best shape of his life" thread next spring. ;)

RANDY IN INDY
07-21-2011, 06:54 PM
Maybe someone will capitalize if Dunn goes all "Berkman" over the winter.

kaldaniels
07-21-2011, 11:25 PM
How long will the Sox stick with Dunn if this continues?

757690
08-16-2011, 12:18 PM
Very mean, but very funny Onion article.

With .163 Average, Adam Dunn No Longer Considered A Baseball Player (http://www.theonion.com/articles/with-163-average-adam-dunn-no-longer-considered-a,21121/)


"He's certainly allowed to continue playing baseball, but he cannot legally refer to himself as a 'baseball player,'" an MLB spokesperson said in a statement, adding that Dunn would now be called what the league refers to as a ‘baseball participant.’

Blitz Dorsey
08-16-2011, 02:28 PM
Maybe someone will capitalize if Dunn goes all "Berkman" over the winter.

Insert "HGH lab in Tony LaRussa's basement" joke here.

fearofpopvol1
08-16-2011, 03:21 PM
I give him an offseason to try to figure some things out. But I say if he has another awful season, he's toast.

Sea Ray
08-16-2011, 06:01 PM
I give him an offseason to try to figure some things out. But I say if he has another awful season, he's toast.

He's got to start by losing weight, at least 20 lbs. If he doesn't do that then it doesn't matter how much tape he watches or how much time he spends in the batting cage

Sea Ray
08-16-2011, 06:05 PM
I wonder if he's sticking by this prediction:


Millar: "Adam Dunn hits 25 home runs in the second half. He had a miserable first half with all the strikeouts, but you have to go with a man's track record. He's not going to hit 12 home runs this year. White Sox make the playoffs and Dunn dominates the second half."



Read more: http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/stor...#ixzz1RoLbLCcU

It's pure laziness on Millar's part. He did nothing more than look at Dunn's career stat sheet. If he'd actually scouted Dunn's play he'd have seen that he very out of shape and his swing is slow. This goes to show that you can't project players solely by the back of their baseball card. You need to watch them play

Redhook
08-17-2011, 07:57 AM
Very mean, but very funny Onion article.

With .163 Average, Adam Dunn No Longer Considered A Baseball Player (http://www.theonion.com/articles/with-163-average-adam-dunn-no-longer-considered-a,21121/)

:laugh:

That is mean, but very funny. I hope Adam breaks out of it soon.

Sea Ray
09-07-2011, 10:29 PM
Has Adam Dunn been officially benched? I rarely see his name in box scores anymore. He has no hits in the past two weeks and only 5 in the past month. He's sure not going to come out of this if he only plays in two games a week. Seems to me like the Chisox have given up on him for 2011. The cynic in me also wonders if Ozzie is trying to save him the embarrassment of a record inept season by keeping him short of the qualifying PAs which I think are 502.

mbgrayson
09-07-2011, 11:02 PM
See this ESPN article (http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/6914054/chicago-white-sox-adam-dunn-saved-embarrassing-record).


Benching may save Adam Dunn
By Doug Padilla
ESPNChicago.com
Archive CHICAGO -- Poised to have the lowest batting average ever among players who qualify for a batting title, Adam Dunn's recent relegation to the bench could spare the Chicago White Sox designated hitter that inglorious fate.

CTA513
09-08-2011, 01:48 AM
Has Adam Dunn been officially benched? I rarely see his name in box scores anymore. He has no hits in the past two weeks and only 5 in the past month. He's sure not going to come out of this if he only plays in two games a week. Seems to me like the Chisox have given up on him for 2011. The cynic in me also wonders if Ozzie is trying to save him the embarrassment of a record inept season by keeping him short of the qualifying PAs which I think are 502.

Hes not going to come out of it until he gets himself into better playing shape for next season.

redsmetz
09-08-2011, 08:52 AM
Hes not going to come out of it until he gets himself into better playing shape for next season.

Since he's signed for three more years, not sure he has any incentive to do that, but I would hope for personal pride alone, he decides to get himself a personal trainer and get back into the necessary shape to play decently. I've always like Adam and would hate to see his career end just playing out the string at an abysmal level.

Sea Ray
09-19-2011, 04:43 PM
Adam Dunn is in denial. If he really thinks that his problems aren't physical then he is bound to fail again next year. We will find out in March if he really thinks his problems were all mental. If he shows up to Spring Training 25-30 lbs lighter then I'll say good for him and the Chisox. But from the sound of this, it doesn't sound like that'll happen:


KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Adam Dunn got his fourth hit of the season against left-handed pitching in his 86th at-bat when he lined a single to left-center field off Everett Teaford in the fourth inning Saturday night.

Dunn, who’ll turn 32 in the offseason, feels certain his hitting woes are mental, not physical, so he’s planning on his usual workout routine this offseason.

“I’ve been doing the same thing workout-wise for the last seven or eight years with a good group of guys we work out with in Houston,’’ said Dunn, who had a set of decent at-bats for the second consecutive night.

Until this season, Dunn has been successful despite not hitting in the offseason. He will do some hitting this offseason, but physically, he said he’s fine.

“It’s never been a health issue,’’ he said.

As for the other issues, Dunn is banking on figuring that out. “I have no choice,’’ he said.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/7721432-574/white-sox-adam-dunn-certain-woes-at-plate-are-mental.html

I kind of feel sorry for him this year. It can't be fun to be benched and putting up historically bad numbers but if he doesn't address it when he has the chance (by getting in shape in the off season) then he deserves another .161 season

REDREAD
09-19-2011, 04:51 PM
Adam Dunn is in denial. If he really thinks that his problems aren't physical then he is bound to fail again next year.

He's basically proven what his detractors have said.
His heart really isn't into baseball.. he'd much rather be fishing instead.
He was able to put up some very good years based on his power and strike zone eye, but he never seemed to work on his defense or try to get into top shape.

His actions say that he finally got someone to give him that big multiyear deal, and he's just coasting it out until he retires. Now maybe he's just being overly defensive/sensitive right now and busts his butt over the season.. but as of right now, he's proving his detractors right.

Rojo
09-19-2011, 04:52 PM
Wonder if DH'ing has contributed to the putridness.

Sea Ray
09-19-2011, 04:57 PM
He's basically proven what his detractors have said.
His heart really isn't into baseball.. he'd much rather be fishing instead.
He was able to put up some very good years based on his power and strike zone eye, but he never seemed to work on his defense or try to get into top shape.

His actions say that he finally got someone to give him that big multiyear deal, and he's just coasting it out until he retires. Now maybe he's just being overly defensive/sensitive right now and busts his butt over the season.. but as of right now, he's proving his detractors right.

But wouldn't the fear of going through another year like this one be enough to motivate him? It's gotta be hell answering questions every other day about his horrible season. Put frankly, it's gotta be hell to stink as a ballplayer. On the other hand, it's gotta be loads of fun to hit 40 HRs in the big leagues. If this doesn't motivate him then it does say a lot about his character. I'll be very interested to see how this plays out next year. It'll be a very important chapter in the Adam Dunn Story that is near and dear to the heart of RZ.

TRF
09-19-2011, 05:00 PM
so if Dunn looks like he did this year in 2012, BUT he hits about 40 HR's, BB's 90+ times, hits .240 and OPS's around .900...

in other words, if Adam Dunn next year is... Adam Dunn, then what are you going to rip on?

Sea Ray
09-19-2011, 05:10 PM
so if Dunn looks like he did this year in 2012, BUT he hits about 40 HR's, BB's 90+ times, hits .240 and OPS's around .900...

in other words, if Adam Dunn next year is... Adam Dunn, then what are you going to rip on?

Nothing. I'll praise him and suggest he win comeback player of the year. Wouldn't you?

I'll also say that I'm amazed

RedsManRick
09-19-2011, 05:37 PM
Dunn has always been one thing: a destroyer of fastballs with the patience to force pitchers to give him one. Maybe his timing got screwed up DHing. Maybe his bat is slowing down a little. Probably some of both. But neither of those explains such a drastic jump falling off of a cliff.

What's particularly troubling to me is just how similar so much of his game has been to his past. His P/PA are near his career highs, so it's not like he's just putting the ball in play as quickly as possible. His contact rate is right there with his career norms. He did start swinging at more pitches out of the zone starting in 2010 (up from ~20% to ~30%, raising his overall Swing% from 40% to 45%), but that didn't really hurt him much last year. Why did it hurt him so much this year?

This year, his HR/FB dropped in half and his IFFB doubled. Meanwhile, his walks were a career low and strikeouts a career high. That's pretty much the story as far as I can tell. The only story I can come up with is that he's swinging more early in the counts and putting himself behind more often (it would be interesting to examine how often he got to various counts). This put him in more situations where he had to protect and fewer where he got to sit on a fastball. And because he did so much damage to fastballs, once he got ahead he was particularly dangerous, leading to pitchers avoid him and walking him rather than giving him one to crush. In short, a relatively minor change in how he handled the first pitch or two completely changed how his PA tended to play out, much to his disadvantage.

Here's something interesting, the percentage of his PA that included the following counts:


1-0 0-1
2007 44.0% 45.7%
2008 47.3% 43.9%
2009 45.7% 46.1%
2010 44.0% 45.8%
2011 41.3% 50.4%

He basically took 1 out of every 10 PA where he had gone up 1-0 and instead went down 0-1. That probably contributed too.

One other thing, the average fastball velocity Dunn has seen went up a full MPH last year to 92.5 mph. As a Red it was never above 90. What gives? Is that an AL thing? A random chance thing? An MLB wide thing?

I'd like to see him get back to the discipline he used to display. Through 2009, he consistently swung at ~20% of pitches out of the zone. In 2010 that went up to 28.5%. Last year it was 28.0% His overall contact rate hasn't changed a ton. But we know he's not particularly adept at putting the bat on the ball and he saw fewer strikes last year than he ever has before.

Dunn is a mistake fastball hitter who struggles to make contact in the best of times who is swinging more often and seeing harder fastballs. His success pretty much revolves around his ability to put the ball out of the yard. And if that goes, he goes. And last year, he was hitting too many towering shots to the pitcher and not enough to the fans in the bleachers. I would not be at all surprised to see him make some sort of adjustment and be right back at his .240/.360/.500 self next year. Of course, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him continue to do this, especially if he gets intermittent playing time.

Sea Ray
09-19-2011, 05:52 PM
I would not be at all surprised to see him make some sort of adjustment and be right back at his .240/.360/.500 self next year. Of course, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him continue to do this, especially if he gets intermittent playing time.

His "adjustment" needs to be to shape up like Berkman did before this year

Rojo
09-19-2011, 05:58 PM
This year, his HR/FB dropped in half and his IFFB doubled. Meanwhile, his walks were a career low and strikeouts a career high.

Did the walks fall and strikeouts increase after a bad start? If so they could be a secondary effect of another struggle (like the HR/FB and IFFB things).

Big swing/slow bat equals warning trackers and pop-ups. Or does it?

RedsManRick
09-19-2011, 05:59 PM
His "adjustment" needs to be to shape up like Berkman did before this year

Why do you think his physical condition was the primary contributor? Did he gain 40 pounds between 2010 and 2011? He's also been a big dude and if anything looked a little leaner than he has in the past. Did we see/hear about his bat slowing down drastically? I hadn't. Was he playing with a significant injury (Berkman had knee problems last year, to which he attributed a breakdown in his mechanics)? I haven't heard that.

I mean, I don't disagree with your suggestion. For a guy of his size and age, now is the time to put the conditioning in to another gear regardless of his results. But it strikes me as an awfully lazy explanation of how a guy goes from legit clean-up hitter to poor defense-only SS hitter in the course of one season.

Razor Shines
09-19-2011, 06:25 PM
His "adjustment" needs to be to shape up like Berkman did before this year

:laugh::laugh:

In an interview I saw about a month ago, Berkman said all that stuff was way over blown. He said he basically did the same workout he's always done.

When they asked about the report saying he's cut fast food out of his diet he said I start out every season eating pretty well but as the season goes on and we have late games my diet gets worse. He said "I weigh the same this year as I did last year."

Always Red
09-19-2011, 06:29 PM
so if Dunn looks like he did this year in 2012, BUT he hits about 40 HR's, BB's 90+ times, hits .240 and OPS's around .900...

in other words, if Adam Dunn next year is... Adam Dunn, then what are you going to rip on?

or... (not for you TRF, but for the board)....what if Dunn checks in at a svelte 240lbs next year, and struggles terribly again?

Is he still a lazy fat slob then?

It's always assumed (incorrectly) that heavy people are lazy and undisciplined.

I don't see anyone questioning Prince Fielder's weight this year.

IslandRed
09-19-2011, 07:33 PM
One other thing, the average fastball velocity Dunn has seen went up a full MPH last year to 92.5 mph. As a Red it was never above 90. What gives? Is that an AL thing? A random chance thing? An MLB wide thing?

I don't know. But while I was looking at that FanGraphs page, it also leaped out that the percentage of fastballs thrown to him has gone up considerably. That suggests to me that "the book" is now telling pitchers he can't catch up to and square up their good heaters anymore, which is a problem for someone whose game (as you aptly pointed out) was based on killing mistake fastballs and fear thereof. Even a slight decline in bat speed for someone who already had contact issues can be a killer.

But even though we've talked in the past about the possibility of a sharp decline when discussing the aging curve of players like Dunn, this decline is rather sudden and steep. It makes me wonder if the advances in technology leading to an extremely detailed real-time version of "the book" (also discussed in a recent thread) allowed teams to identify a new vulnerability and take advantage of it well before they would have in the old days.

Having said all that, I still expect he'll be better next year. Maybe not actually good, but not this bad.

Sea Ray
09-19-2011, 10:12 PM
Why do you think his physical condition was the primary contributor? Did he gain 40 pounds between 2010 and 2011? He's also been a big dude and if anything looked a little leaner than he has in the past. Did we see/hear about his bat slowing down drastically? I hadn't. Was he playing with a significant injury (Berkman had knee problems last year, to which he attributed a breakdown in his mechanics)? I haven't heard that.

I mean, I don't disagree with your suggestion. For a guy of his size and age, now is the time to put the conditioning in to another gear regardless of his results. But it strikes me as an awfully lazy explanation of how a guy goes from legit clean-up hitter to poor defense-only SS hitter in the course of one season.

I think 285 lbs is too much for his frame. There are those in Chicago that say that he looks heavier than 285. Sure some guys like Fielder can perform when that heavy but Fielder's not 32 yrs old either. I think weight is a major part of his decline. I think it's apparent that his bat is slow. Weight would be a logical explanation

757690
09-19-2011, 10:40 PM
I think 285 lbs is too much for his frame. There are those in Chicago that say that he looks heavier than 285. Sure some guys like Fielder can perform when that heavy but Fielder's not 32 yrs old either. I think weight is a major part of his decline. I think it's apparent that his bat is slow. Weight would be a logical explanation

Anyone who has watched him this year can see that he has gained a significant amount of weight, and that his bat is slower. It's pretty easy to figure what his problem is, he needs to get into better shape.

Scrap Irony
09-19-2011, 10:48 PM
I'm guessing he's struggling with a slower bat that can't seem to catch up with fastballs he mashed as early as last season. Losing some weight and perhaps using a smaller bat may keep Father Time at bay for a year or two.

He might also cheat on those inside fastballs, a la Griffey for three or four years in Cincinnati.

Of course, he might also work on his swing in the offseason.

RedsManRick
09-19-2011, 10:55 PM
I think 285 lbs is too much for his frame. There are those in Chicago that say that he looks heavier than 285. Sure some guys like Fielder can perform when that heavy but Fielder's not 32 yrs old either. I think weight is a major part of his decline. I think it's apparent that his bat is slow. Weight would be a logical explanation

Fair enough -- I didn't see much of him this year. Looked about the same to me. That definitely could be a contributing factor.

Ron Madden
09-20-2011, 03:21 AM
I'm not going to pretend like I know what went wrong for Adam this season.

I will admit that I'll be rooting for him to make a come back in 2012.

vaticanplum
09-20-2011, 12:45 PM
He's basically proven what his detractors have said.
His heart really isn't into baseball.. he'd much rather be fishing instead.
He was able to put up some very good years based on his power and strike zone eye, but he never seemed to work on his defense or try to get into top shape.

I just don't see this, not in the past. There was never a single shred of evidence that he didn't work as hard as, if not harder, than anybody else when he was with the Reds. All reports coming out of the Reds said that he was the first person at batting practice every day. He played through injury many times -- once, if I recall, through a broken hand through a good chunk of the season, when he patently refused to be benched.

He's a big guy, and played a big-guy's game of of baseball. There were viable (and somewhat severe) physical limitations to his defense, but I didn't see evidence of him not trying to work on it. He was always in good shape when he was with the Reds. Dunn was a football player; I don't see most people berating football players for being "out of shape" when they're big. It's their build and it serves them most of the time.

I don't know what's going on with him now. I suspect that a lot of it has to do with what's been covered in this thread -- that his natural build, even in shape, maxes out its serviceability in this particular sport after a certain amount of time/age. Football players wear out faster than baseball players do, and it's not entirely to do with the game they play. As much as he's berated for his defense -- and as much as DH is the role he absolutely should be in -- maybe he hasn't adjusted mentally or even physically (the workouts required, etc.) to a role without defense. I do suspect that psychologically, he is more suited to a long tenure with a smaller-market team; I think he was happy with the Reds and it had nothing to do with it being "easy" for him. I doubt he's a career journeyman by nature and I wonder if he wouldn't be doing a little better right now if the Reds or even D-backs had stuck it out with him. But for all of his troubles now, any detractors who use this as an example of his habits in the past are pretty much just dead wrong in my opinion. I've never seen a concrete shred of evidence that his habits were bad when he was in Cincinnati, only speculation to cover the disappointment that he's not a prototypical Cincinnati ballplayer.

Always Red
09-20-2011, 04:43 PM
I've never seen a concrete shred of evidence that his habits were bad when he was in Cincinnati, only speculation to cover the disappointment that he's not a prototypical Cincinnati ballplayer.

but but but...he had a recliner in the clubhouse! ;)

great post, vp.

osuceltic
09-20-2011, 04:49 PM
I just don't see this, not in the past. There was never a single shred of evidence that he didn't work as hard as, if not harder, than anybody else when he was with the Reds. All reports coming out of the Reds said that he was the first person at batting practice every day. He played through injury many times -- once, if I recall, through a broken hand through a good chunk of the season, when he patently refused to be benched.

He's a big guy, and played a big-guy's game of of baseball. There were viable (and somewhat severe) physical limitations to his defense, but I didn't see evidence of him not trying to work on it. He was always in good shape when he was with the Reds. Dunn was a football player; I don't see most people berating football players for being "out of shape" when they're big. It's their build and it serves them most of the time.

I don't know what's going on with him now. I suspect that a lot of it has to do with what's been covered in this thread -- that his natural build, even in shape, maxes out its serviceability in this particular sport after a certain amount of time/age. Football players wear out faster than baseball players do, and it's not entirely to do with the game they play. As much as he's berated for his defense -- and as much as DH is the role he absolutely should be in -- maybe he hasn't adjusted mentally or even physically (the workouts required, etc.) to a role without defense. I do suspect that psychologically, he is more suited to a long tenure with a smaller-market team; I think he was happy with the Reds and it had nothing to do with it being "easy" for him. I doubt he's a career journeyman by nature and I wonder if he wouldn't be doing a little better right now if the Reds or even D-backs had stuck it out with him. But for all of his troubles now, any detractors who use this as an example of his habits in the past are pretty much just dead wrong in my opinion. I've never seen a concrete shred of evidence that his habits were bad when he was in Cincinnati, only speculation to cover the disappointment that he's not a prototypical Cincinnati ballplayer.

You see what you want to see, I guess. Some of us had all the evidence we needed when it came to Dunn. His teammates and organization protected him, but there was enough out there to paint a pretty good picture.

Rojo
09-20-2011, 05:05 PM
Dunn worked hard enough I imagine, but he probably wasn't hell-for-leather enough for local tastes.

Maybe it's the Rose legacy or not having much in the way of championships outside of baseball but Cincinnati loves baseball players and is suspicious of atheletes or big lugs.

Sea Ray
09-20-2011, 05:20 PM
I never heard reports that he worked at his craft like Joey Votto. In fact I don't think Joey will gain 40 lbs over the next few yrs either.

Adam Dunn is pretty much a see the ball, hit the ball kinda hitter. A lot of articles are kind of like this one:


What’s your secret? he was asked. He blinked and looked away, a small smile creasing the corners of his mouth, then faced the questioner. “I just try to get a good pitch to hit and put my bat on the ball,” he said. The gathering seemed somehow unsatisfied with his answer. “On that second home run,” he was asked, “you had a 1-2 count. Were you expecting a fastball? It was a fastball, right?” He reflected for a moment, trying to be helpful. “That second at bat? Yeah, I guess so. Let me think. I’m trying to remember. Yeah, it was a fastball, right? Yeah, I think it was.” And he waited for the follow-up question, but there was none. Another reporter tried a different tack. “So what’s the secret to your recent success?” he asked and added: “You seem to be really hitting the long ball lately.” Dunn nodded. “Well, I just try to get my pitch and then I try to get my bat on it. You know, just hit it hard.”
http://www.centerfieldgate.com/hitting/adam-dunns-approach

I think Dunn's a good guy and all but hard worker wouldn't be a phrase I'd use

TRF
09-20-2011, 06:06 PM
You see what you want to see, I guess. Some of us had all the evidence we needed when it came to Dunn. His teammates and organization protected him, but there was enough out there to paint a pretty good picture.

Here is what I saw of Adam Dunn as a Red.


Year AVG OBP SLG OPS
2001 0.262 0.371 0.578 0.949
2002 0.249 0.4 0.454 0.854
2003 0.215 0.354 0.465 0.819
2004 0.266 0.388 0.569 0.957
2005 0.247 0.387 0.540 0.927
2006 0.234 0.365 0.490 0.855
2007 0.264 0.386 0.554 0.940
2008 0.233 0.373 0.528 0.901



Here is what I have seen in LF since he left


2009 0.240 0.302 0.418 0.721
2010 0.275 0.335 0.441 0.776
2011 0.230 0.31 0.378 0.689

savafan
09-20-2011, 07:15 PM
That sums it up pretty well TRF :)

hebroncougar
09-20-2011, 08:59 PM
Here is what I saw of Adam Dunn as a Red.


Year AVG OBP SLG OPS
2001 0.262 0.371 0.578 0.949
2002 0.249 0.4 0.454 0.854
2003 0.215 0.354 0.465 0.819
2004 0.266 0.388 0.569 0.957
2005 0.247 0.387 0.540 0.927
2006 0.234 0.365 0.490 0.855
2007 0.264 0.386 0.554 0.940
2008 0.233 0.373 0.528 0.901



Here is what I have seen in LF since he left


2009 0.240 0.302 0.418 0.721
2010 0.275 0.335 0.441 0.776
2011 0.230 0.31 0.378 0.689


Amen. It's easy to say "I told you so" when a player goes downhill........3-4 years later.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk

vaticanplum
09-20-2011, 10:50 PM
You see what you want to see, I guess. Some of us had all the evidence we needed when it came to Dunn. His teammates and organization protected him, but there was enough out there to paint a pretty good picture.

Like what? I'm asking, sincerely, for specifics. I'm not choosing to see anything -- I'm saying that nothing concrete was ever presented to me to indicate that he didn't work hard. (Oh right, the massage chair.)

And yes, I would agree the stats speak for themselves.

Big Klu
09-20-2011, 11:35 PM
During the Indians' pregame show tonight, the Tribe announcers mentioned that Dunn is hitting over .300 vs. Cleveland this season, and .146 vs. the rest of the league.

Sea Ray
09-20-2011, 11:53 PM
That sums it up pretty well TRF :)

Sums what up? I'm scratching my head trying to figure out his point. As putrid as our 2011 LF production is, it's better than what the Chisox are getting out of Dunn as their DH and it's costing them $12mill which would tie him with Coco as the highest paid Red.

Ron Madden
09-21-2011, 05:05 AM
Sums what up? I'm scratching my head trying to figure out his point. As putrid as our 2011 LF production is, it's better than what the Chisox are getting out of Dunn as their DH and it's costing them $12mill which would tie him with Coco as the highest paid Red.

Keep scratching maybe you will open a wound deep and wide enough to let your biased opinions escape your closed mind. :)

Ron Madden
09-21-2011, 05:15 AM
I never heard reports that he worked at his craft like Joey Votto. In fact I don't think Joey will gain 40 lbs over the next few yrs either.

Adam Dunn is pretty much a see the ball, hit the ball kinda hitter. A lot of articles are kind of like this one:

http://www.centerfieldgate.com/hitting/adam-dunns-approach

I think Dunn's a good guy and all but hard worker wouldn't be a phrase I'd use


Whats wrong with waiting for a good pitch and then hitting it hard?

Babe Ruth and Ted Williams took that same approach.

RANDY IN INDY
09-21-2011, 06:57 AM
Whats wrong with waiting for a good pitch and then hitting it hard?

Babe Ruth and Ted Williams took that same approach.

And got much better production, I might add. That's some comparison, when you consider that Dunn is hitting .167, and that Williams and Ruth hit for power and very good batting average throughout their careers.

lollipopcurve
09-21-2011, 07:14 AM
No matter what you thought about Dunn prior to this year, his performance this year is now part of who he is as a ballplayer. Adjust perceptions accordingly.

TRF
09-21-2011, 09:41 AM
Sums what up? I'm scratching my head trying to figure out his point. As putrid as our 2011 LF production is, it's better than what the Chisox are getting out of Dunn as their DH and it's costing them $12mill which would tie him with Coco as the highest paid Red.

My point is I sat at my computer for years and watched some members of this forum, Marty, tools on the banana phone, Cincinnati media et al trash the most productive LF in likely the history of the Cincinnati Reds. Certainly in my lifetime which includes the BRM. And now that he's had one bad year they are almost salivating with i told you so's, he's lazy, he's fat.

it's kinda pathetic.

Scrap Irony
09-21-2011, 09:57 AM
Adam Dunn's WAR over the last decade:

2001 2.3 (66 games)
2002 4.4
2003 1.5
2004 5.2
2005 3.4
2006 1.6
2007 3.2
2008 0.9
2009 1.1
2010 3.5
2011 -2.6

Dunn's WAR puts him in the solidly valuable cache of players.

But he's not "the most productive LF in likely the history of the Cincinnati Reds". George Foster was much better. Frank Robinson also played 800+ games in LF in his career and was obviously better. If given as much time, Ron Gant, Kevin Mitchell, and other could have gotten there as well. Kal Daniels average more WAR than did Dunn in his short time as a Red.

He's Tom Brunansky.

westofyou
09-21-2011, 10:13 AM
Adam Dunn's WAR over the last decade:

2001 2.3 (66 games)
2002 4.4
2003 1.5
2004 5.2
2005 3.4
2006 1.6
2007 3.2
2008 0.9
2009 1.1
2010 3.5
2011 -2.6

Dunn's WAR puts him in the solidly valuable cache of players.

But he's not "the most productive LF in likely the history of the Cincinnati Reds". George Foster was much better. Frank Robinson also played 800+ games in LF in his career and was obviously better.

He's Tom Brunansky.




CINCINNATI REDS
CAREER
MODERN (1900-)
LF
AT BATS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
GAMES displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB G
1 George Foster 2.60 7.10 4.50 3626 967
2 Frank Robinson 2.21 6.87 4.66 2219 590
3 Adam Dunn 1.98 7.16 5.18 3483 1021
4 Pete Rose 1.86 6.20 4.34 2562 625
5 Bob Bescher 0.62 5.16 4.54 2807 745
6 Eric Tipton 0.61 5.16 4.55 1510 451
7 Joe Kelley 0.60 5.30 4.70 1325 364
8 Dmitri Young 0.46 5.78 5.32 1624 438
9 Pat Duncan 0.03 4.93 4.90 2690 724







TOM BRUNANSKY

GIVEN NAME: Thomas Andrew Brunansky
BORN: 8/20/1960 Covina, California
BAT: R THROW: R HEIGHT: 6'4" WEIGHT: 205 MLB DEBUT: 4/9/1981
CAREER GAMES BY POSITION: 1B: 36 LF: 88 CF: 81 RF: 1569 DH: 61

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
1981 Angels 20 11 33 7 5 0 0 3 9.09 6 8 10 1 0 .152 .424 .317 .741
1982 Twins 21 127 463 77 126 30 1 20 4.32 46 71 101 1 2 .272 .471 .377 .848
1983 Twins 22 151 542 70 123 24 5 28 5.17 82 61 95 2 5 .227 .445 .308 .753
1984 Twins 23 155 567 75 144 21 0 32 5.64 85 57 94 4 5 .254 .460 .320 .780
1985 Twins 24 157 567 71 137 28 4 27 4.76 90 71 86 5 3 .242 .448 .320 .767
1986 Twins 25 157 593 69 152 28 1 23 3.88 75 53 98 12 4 .256 .423 .315 .738
1987 Twins 26 155 532 83 138 22 2 32 6.02 85 74 104 11 11 .259 .489 .352 .841
1988 Twins 27 14 49 5 9 1 0 1 2.04 6 7 11 1 2 .184 .265 .286 .551
Cardinals 27 143 523 69 128 22 4 22 4.21 79 79 82 16 6 .245 .428 .345 .773
TOTALS 157 572 74 137 23 4 23 4.02 85 86 93 17 8 .240 .414 .340 .754
1989 Cardinals 28 158 556 67 133 29 3 20 3.60 85 59 107 5 9 .239 .410 .312 .722
1990 Cardinals 29 19 57 5 9 3 0 1 1.75 2 12 10 0 0 .158 .263 .310 .573
Red Sox 29 129 461 61 123 24 5 15 3.25 71 54 105 5 10 .267 .438 .342 .780
TOTALS 148 518 66 132 27 5 16 3.09 73 66 115 5 10 .255 .419 .338 .757
1991 Red Sox 30 142 459 54 105 24 1 16 3.49 70 49 72 1 2 .229 .390 .303 .692
1992 Red Sox 31 138 458 47 122 31 3 15 3.28 74 66 96 2 5 .266 .445 .354 .799
1993 Brewers 32 80 224 20 41 7 3 6 2.68 29 25 59 3 4 .183 .321 .265 .586
1994 Brewers 33 16 28 2 6 2 0 0 0.00 0 1 9 0 0 .214 .286 .241 .527
Red Sox 33 48 177 22 42 10 1 10 5.65 34 23 48 0 2 .237 .475 .319 .793
TOTALS 64 205 24 48 12 1 10 4.88 34 24 57 0 2 .234 .449 .309 .758
TOTALS 1800 6289 804 1543 306 33 271 4.31 919 770 1187 69 70 .245 .434 .327 .761
LG AVERAGE 6394 835 1672 296 40 166 2.60 786 621 1011 133 65 .262 .398 .328 .726
POS AVERAGE 6421 871 1683 312 42 224 3.49 899 620 1198 125 66 .262 .429 .328 .756

YEAR TEAM RC RCAA RCAP OWP RC/G TB EBH ISO SEC BPA IBB HBP SAC SF GIDP OUTS PA POS
1981 Angels 5 1 0 .554 4.82 14 3 .273 .545 .561 0 0 0 0 0 28 41 LF
1982 Twins 83 22 20 .634 6.33 218 51 .199 .354 .522 0 8 1 2 12 354 545 RF
1983 Twins 71 -8 -6 .446 4.35 241 57 .218 .334 .475 4 4 1 3 13 441 611 RF
1984 Twins 80 2 -16 .505 4.83 261 53 .206 .314 .481 2 0 0 4 15 447 628 RF
1985 Twins 82 2 -2 .503 4.83 254 59 .206 .340 .484 7 0 0 13 12 458 651 RF
1986 Twins 78 -11 -21 .436 4.50 251 52 .167 .277 .456 4 1 1 7 15 468 655 RF
1987 Twins 89 15 16 .580 5.71 260 56 .229 .389 .531 5 4 0 4 12 421 614 RF
1988 Twins 4 -3 -4 .249 2.57 13 2 .082 .245 .339 0 0 0 0 0 42 56 RF
Cardinals 78 9 5 .552 4.96 224 48 .184 .365 .490 6 4 1 6 17 425 613 RF
TOTALS 82 6 1 .530 4.74 237 50 .175 .355 .478 6 4 1 6 17 467 669
1989 Cardinals 69 -2 -4 .482 4.17 228 52 .171 .286 .442 3 2 0 5 10 447 622 RF
1990 Cardinals 5 -4 -4 .245 2.70 15 4 .105 .316 .380 0 1 0 1 1 50 71 RF
Red Sox 65 3 1 .517 4.77 202 44 .171 .299 .460 7 3 0 8 12 368 526 RF
TOTALS 70 -1 -3 .488 4.52 217 48 .164 .301 .451 7 4 0 9 13 418 597
1991 Red Sox 55 -9 -18 .422 3.99 179 41 .161 .270 .428 2 3 0 8 8 372 519 RF
1992 Red Sox 72 10 9 .564 5.39 204 49 .179 .328 .482 2 0 2 7 11 361 533 RF
1993 Brewers 18 -16 -15 .235 2.51 72 16 .138 .263 .365 0 0 2 0 5 194 251 RF
1994 Brewers 2 -3 -3 .163 2.35 8 2 .071 .107 .276 0 0 0 0 1 23 29 RF
Red Sox 27 -2 -6 .460 5.10 84 21 .237 .367 .505 1 0 0 4 2 143 204 RF
TOTALS 29 -5 -9 .423 4.72 92 23 .215 .332 .476 1 0 0 4 3 166 233
TOTALS 883 6 -48 .498 4.73 2728 610 .188 .322 .472 43 30 8 72 146 5042 7169
LG AVERAGE 844 0 0 .500 4.52 2547 503 .137 .255 .440 54 39 54 57 145 5042 7164
POS AVERAGE 896 50 0 .520 4.80 2752 578 .166 .282 .465 60 37 29 60 148 5042 7168

TRF
09-21-2011, 10:24 AM
Doesn't look like Brunansky to me.

Scrap Irony
09-21-2011, 11:11 AM
Then look again.

Pay particular attention to their WARs.

One great season. One really good season. A bunch of so-so seasons. Ten pretty good years overall.

Sea Ray
09-21-2011, 11:12 AM
Whats wrong with waiting for a good pitch and then hitting it hard?

Babe Ruth and Ted Williams took that same approach.

I disagree. Ted Williams was very scientific about hitting and broke it down immensely whereas Babe Ruth was more the Adam Dunn type

Sea Ray
09-21-2011, 11:14 AM
Keep scratching maybe you will open a wound deep and wide enough to let your biased opinions escape your closed mind. :)

Fine, tell me what point I'm missing. I'm open minded enough to ask...

TRF
09-21-2011, 11:26 AM
Then look again.

Pay particular attention to their WARs.

One great season. One really good season. A bunch of so-so seasons. Ten pretty good years overall.

8 years as a Red... .247 .380 .520 .900 Never a hint of PED use. Brunansky played during the beginnings of the steroid era, played in the homer dome and never once had a season close to anything Dunn did as a Red. So while Brunansky was probably a clean player so to speak, he couldn't carry Dunn's jock in a wheel barrow offensively.

REDREAD
09-21-2011, 05:22 PM
I think it's kind of hard to put a value on Dunn.
He hit a lot of HR and got a lot of walks.
But he was bad defensively, and not really the prototypical middle of the order hitter that many hoped he'd become. Overall, he gave us good bang for the buck while he was here, but they picked the right time to let him walk.

Scrap Irony
09-21-2011, 05:31 PM
8 years as a Red... .247 .380 .520 .900 Never a hint of PED use. Brunansky played during the beginnings of the steroid era, played in the homer dome and never once had a season close to anything Dunn did as a Red. So while Brunansky was probably a clean player so to speak, he couldn't carry Dunn's jock in a wheel barrow offensively.

But Dunn had to play defense too. And run the bases.

And he was remarkably bad at that. Enough, in fact, to drag down his overall value to that of someone like... well, Tom Brunansky.

westofyou
09-21-2011, 08:04 PM
But Dunn had to play defense too. And run the bases.

And he was remarkably bad at that. Enough, in fact, to drag down his overall value to that of someone like... well, Tom Brunansky.

Still don't see the connection.

Nope, not at all

jojo
09-21-2011, 11:15 PM
But Dunn had to play defense too. And run the bases.

And he was remarkably bad at that.

Exactly.

VR
09-21-2011, 11:45 PM
I'd love to see what Dunner's prodution was vs. lefty relievers. Those mano y mano matchups were rarely productive.

RANDY IN INDY
09-27-2011, 08:12 AM
From Rotoworld:

"Adam Dunn went 0-for-2 with two walks and two strikeouts in Monday's 4-3 win over the Blue Jays. With two games left in the season, it's quite safe to say that Dunn will become the second everyday player in history to own a higher strikeout total (174) than batting average (.160). He needs to go 4-for-4 in each of his last two contests to avoid this fate. Oh, and he's mired in an 0-for-20 slump with 10 strikeouts."

Sea Ray
09-27-2011, 09:04 AM
Since all he needs is an adjustment in his swing, why hasn't he found it yet?

Sea Ray
09-29-2011, 10:07 AM
Congratulations to Adam Dunn, who exceeded all expectations and managed to finish with a sub .160 batting average. He ended up at .159. Way to go Adam. You've always been an outlier and your 2011 qualifies as such. Good luck on having the inside track on comeback player of the year award

Chip R
09-29-2011, 10:13 AM
Congratulations to Adam Dunn, who exceeded all expectations and managed to finish with a sub .160 batting average. He ended up at .159. Way to go Adam. You've always been an outlier and your 2011 qualifies as such. Good luck on having the inside track on comeback player of the year award

Here's the thing: If he hits .260 next year, he probably should win Comeback Player of the Year since it's 100 points higher than this year. :eek:

Sea Ray
09-29-2011, 10:37 AM
Here's the thing: If he hits .260 next year, he probably should win Comeback Player of the Year since it's 100 points higher than this year. :eek:

If he hits .260 next year, he'll likely deserve the award. He only hit over.200 in one month this year, May, where he hit a whopping .206. He was amazingly consistent this year

AtomicDumpling
09-29-2011, 11:44 PM
I know lots of people are enjoying Adam Dunn's terrible season. It reveals a lot about those people, although strangely I am not surprised by most of them.

It seems highly unusual that a player would be such an excellent hitter for so long and then so suddenly and completely lose the ability to hit. There must be a physical reason. I am guessing it is a vision issue. Hopefully he can get it corrected (whatever it is) and return to the stud .900 OPS highlight reel slugger he was for a decade. If not then he will still have a great career to look back upon someday. I realize some people here hope otherwise.

RANDY IN INDY
09-29-2011, 11:47 PM
I don't. I hope the big dude gets his act together and puts a few more good season's up. He has always been a likeable sort.

Sea Ray
09-30-2011, 09:38 AM
I know lots of people are enjoying Adam Dunn's terrible season. It reveals a lot about those people, although strangely I am not surprised by most of them.

It seems highly unusual that a player would be such an excellent hitter for so long and then so suddenly and completely lose the ability to hit. There must be a physical reason. I am guessing it is a vision issue. Hopefully he can get it corrected (whatever it is) and return to the stud .900 OPS highlight reel slugger he was for a decade. If not then he will still have a great career to look back upon someday. I realize some people here hope otherwise.

Personally I don't post on him because I enjoy seeing his demise. I bring it up for the very reasons you mentioned. It's a huge story to see a .900 OPS guy drop to mid .500s in one season. That's noteworthy.

Adam Dunn never did anything to my Reds. They got rid of him.

I'll admit to a smug feeling of satisfaction that this season supports my claims that he's not a hall of famer and many here argued otherwise but a .159 season is really off the charts and goes well beyond that

RedsBaron
09-30-2011, 11:55 AM
I don't. I hope the big dude gets his act together and puts a few more good season's up. He has always been a likeable sort.

I agree.

Unassisted
10-02-2011, 11:01 PM
Why does it have to be personal that we note or expect Adam Dunn's perilous statistical drop? The guy's numbers are historically bad for a ML hitter. It'd be interesting whether he'd been a former Red or not. The fact that he is a former Red just makes it a "thank goodness it's not the Reds paying him so much to produce so little" situation.

I have no opinion about him personally. I'm just glad he's not on the Reds payroll if that's his contribution to his team's success.

Ron Madden
10-02-2011, 11:14 PM
There once was a very interesting and informative thread titled "Tracking Adam Dunn". That thread was locked down because a few members thought we shouldn't be discussing or praising Adam Dunn because he was no longer a Red.

I guess it's all well and good to have a thread celebrating the misfortune of former Reds.

wlf WV
10-03-2011, 08:48 AM
I agree.

Me too,anybody that likes to fish can't be all bad.

Boss-Hog
10-03-2011, 12:20 PM
There once was a very interesting and informative thread titled "Tracking Adam Dunn". That thread was locked down because a few members thought we shouldn't be discussing or praising Adam Dunn because he was no longer a Red.

I guess it's all well and good to have a thread celebrating the misfortune of former Reds.

That's not really true.

Caveman Techie
10-03-2011, 01:25 PM
I don't look at it as this thread is "celebrating" the misfortune of Adam Dunn, as it is just discussing it. I mean come on a guy who was the model for consistency for nearly 10 years suddenly can't hit a ball to save his life. That's noteworthy and will get discussion. Add to that the fact that he was one of our own for most of that time and it's going to get discussed alot.

Sea Ray
10-04-2011, 02:15 PM
I must give Texasdave credit for this in the Sundeck:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2487164&postcount=1

Basically he says that Dunn has earned the distinction of the lowest BA ever even though he finished 6 PAs short. By giving him a 6 for 6 he still finishes at .171, far short of Rob Deer's .179

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

Interesting take indeed

CTA513
10-04-2011, 02:52 PM
Adam Dunn punches babies

bucksfan2
10-04-2011, 02:58 PM
Adam Dunn punches babies

He could kiss babies for all I care. He is a bad, bad, historically bad ball player right now.

UKFlounder
10-04-2011, 03:02 PM
Well he tries to, but he ends up swinging and missing...


Adam Dunn punches babies

_Sir_Charles_
10-04-2011, 03:03 PM
He could kiss babies for all I care. He is a bad, bad, historically bad ball player right now.

Now come on. At least he's fast and plays solid defense. ;)

On a serious note, has there been any talk of him being injured or having any eyesight problems? Because I just find it stunning to see the type of drop off he went through. Something has to be going on....right?

CTA513
10-04-2011, 04:51 PM
Well he tries to, but he ends up swinging and missing...

No he punches them and then eats them

Degenerate39
10-05-2011, 07:38 PM
There once was a very interesting and informative thread titled "Tracking Adam Dunn". That thread was locked down because a few members thought we shouldn't be discussing or praising Adam Dunn because he was no longer a Red.

I guess it's all well and good to have a thread celebrating the misfortune of former Reds.

If that thread was closed then this one should be

Boss-Hog
10-05-2011, 09:08 PM
If that thread was closed then this one should be
I've already stated that's not really why it or the corresponding 'Adam Dunn Strikeout Tracker' thread was closed.

Let's get this thread back on track.

westofyou
10-05-2011, 10:31 PM
Baseball is game about success, failure, wonder and loss.

It's attached to everyone who follows it, plays it, or even is remotely encumbered in their life by the sheer audacity of its existences.

It's blood, tears, hope and anguish.

Everything a player does in the game the highs and the lows... everything is in play.

The career line is where the final judgement takes hold.

Ron Madden
10-06-2011, 04:07 AM
I've already stated that's not really why it or the corresponding 'Adam Dunn Strikeout Tracker' thread was closed.

Let's get this thread back on track.


Boss, With all due respect can you tell us exactly why the Tracking Adam Dunn Home run thread was closed?

I found that thread to be very well researched, very informative and very entertaining.

I realize discussion of Dunn has always been very passionate from both his supporters and detractors.

I admit to being a huge Adam Dunn Fan the entire time he wore Cincinnati Red. Unlike some Fans, I grow attached to Reds players that I root for everyday, I still have kind of loyal bond to them when they leave to play elsewhere.

I always try very hard to look at both sides of any argument and I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS THREAD SHOULD BE CLOSED just because I disagree with many of the negative opinions within yet in all fairness and for the sake of intelligent and informative discussion I fail to see any good reason why the Dunn Home Run thread was locked.

I'm not trying to stir the pot or cause any trouble.

jojo
10-06-2011, 05:01 AM
Boss, With all due respect can you tell us exactly why the Tracking Adam Dunn Home run thread was closed?

I found that thread to be very well researched, very informative and very entertaining.

I realize discussion of Dunn has always been very passionate from both his supporters and detractors.

I admit to being a huge Adam Dunn Fan the entire time he wore Cincinnati Red. Unlike some Fans, I grow attached to Reds players that I root for everyday, I still have kind of loyal bond to them when they leave to play elsewhere.

I always try very hard to look at both sides of any argument and I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS THREAD SHOULD BE CLOSED just because I disagree with many of the negative opinions within yet in all fairness and for the sake of intelligent and informative discussion I fail to see any good reason why the Dunn Home Run thread was locked.

I'm not trying to stir the pot or cause any trouble.

The reason was pretty straightforward and the thread wasn't locked until repeated warnings were obviously ignored:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2246805&postcount=284


We allowed the HR thread to remain open even after he was traded because enough people wanted it to continue on the condition that it would be used for the purpose it was intended for. By the same token, we'll allow the stikeout thread only if it's used for its intended purpose. But if either thread continues to contain unrelated discussion and fighting, both threads will be closed for good.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2261861&postcount=323


Let's not derail this thread any further by arguing about it's existance. If you have a beef, either take it private or report it to the mods.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2261997&postcount=328


Yeah, you guys don't listen.

Thread closed....

bucksfan2
10-06-2011, 12:35 PM
Now come on. At least he's fast and plays solid defense. ;)

On a serious note, has there been any talk of him being injured or having any eyesight problems? Because I just find it stunning to see the type of drop off he went through. Something has to be going on....right?

Ok I didn't realize that Dunn was just 31 years old this past season.

My theory is he just isn't the type of player who ages well. He never was what you would consider a good hitter or pure hitter. He was a guy who was country strong, a guy who could punish a ball when he connected, had a good eye, but not a guy you would say had quick wrist, or who was able to "hit the ball out of the catchers mitt". We have seen with aging superstars (sans PED) that there is a decline. We saw it first hand with Jr, how his swing slowed down so he had to start it sooner. He didn't have those quick wrist that he had when he was younger. I think the same applies to Dunn, just that the fallout is much worse.

Is he dunn? I don't know. I do know that I wouldn't bet on him to regain much of his former glory. He may not be sub interstate bad, I just don't think you will see a .380 OBP with 40 hr's out of him anymore.

Sea Ray
10-06-2011, 12:38 PM
Baseball is game about success, failure, wonder and loss.

It's attached to everyone who follows it, plays it, or even is remotely encumbered in their life by the sheer audacity of its existences.

It's blood, tears, hope and anguish.

Everything a player does in the game the highs and the lows... everything is in play.

The career line is where the final judgement takes hold.

Adam Dunn's 2011 season is beyond the typical "lows" in baseball which makes it all the more remarkable

Sea Ray
10-06-2011, 12:41 PM
Is he dunn? I don't know. I do know that I would bet on him to regain much of his former glory. He may not be sub interstate bad, I just don't think you will see a .380 OBP with 40 hr's out of him anymore.

But you would bet on him regaining much of his former glory?

bucksfan2
10-06-2011, 01:50 PM
But you would bet on him regaining much of his former glory?

Edited. Meant wouldn't.

Sea Ray
10-06-2011, 02:59 PM
Edited. Meant wouldn't.

Got it.

Be sure and correct me next time I screw up...:thumbup:

Boss-Hog
10-07-2011, 06:32 AM
Ron,

I'll be happy to answer your question, but for the most part, jojo beat me to the punch. You stated that the original thread was closed because some members thought "we shouldn't be discussing or praising Adam Dunn because he was no longer a Red." However, that's not true because that thread was left open for a long time after a handful of people start complaining about it shortly after he was traded in 2008 ('Why in the world is this being discussed on a Reds site?'). We, as moderators, had no problem letting it continue as long as no rules were broken.

However, when a "negative", yet perfectly within the rules thread was started on the same player's pursuit of the strikeout record, purposefully or not, it created much tension between people on both sides of the fence. As you can see from the links that jojo posted, the moderators provided numerous warnings to avoid the bickering, but as you will also see, those warnings were mostly ignored and we made the decision to close both threads and I do not second guess that decision for a moment. As a result, having experienced what went on within that thread at the time, I don't feel your original claim as to why that thread was closed is accurate.

If you have any further questions, feel free to send me a PM and I'll be happy to answer them. I don't want to continue using this thread to take away from the topic at hand.


Boss, With all due respect can you tell us exactly why the Tracking Adam Dunn Home run thread was closed?

I found that thread to be very well researched, very informative and very entertaining.

I realize discussion of Dunn has always been very passionate from both his supporters and detractors.

I admit to being a huge Adam Dunn Fan the entire time he wore Cincinnati Red. Unlike some Fans, I grow attached to Reds players that I root for everyday, I still have kind of loyal bond to them when they leave to play elsewhere.

I always try very hard to look at both sides of any argument and I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS THREAD SHOULD BE CLOSED just because I disagree with many of the negative opinions within yet in all fairness and for the sake of intelligent and informative discussion I fail to see any good reason why the Dunn Home Run thread was locked.

I'm not trying to stir the pot or cause any trouble.

Blitz Dorsey
10-07-2011, 03:33 PM
To answer the original question ... I'm going with washed up. Although, it wouldn't completely shock me if Dunner rebounds with a decent 2012 season.

RANDY IN INDY
10-07-2011, 04:04 PM
I don't think he will fret a lot, either way. He seems like a happy go lucky kind of guy that will be happy and content, regardless.

Sea Ray
10-07-2011, 05:17 PM
To answer the original question ... I'm going with washed up. Although, it wouldn't completely shock me if Dunner rebounds with a decent 2012 season.

I think he'll bounce back a little but never get back to 40 HRs. Just my guess at this point. But if he say gets his avg up to .220 and hits 25 HRs, how many ABs will that get him? If he doesn't produce and fast they use someone else at DH. Most teams aren't like the Mariners and put up with mediocrity from the DH spot for long.

If (and it's a big if) he continues next year as if it were 2011, then he is only a 50:50 shot of even reaching 400 HRs in his career and how amazing would that be? The reason being that ABs will be hard to come by in the next few yrs.

oneupper
10-07-2011, 09:41 PM
I'll go with washed up also. Dunn ended the season 0-22 with 13Ks. Incredible.
I still have a Dunn T-shirt. Dude was the center of many spirited discussions on this board.

Always Red
10-10-2011, 02:32 PM
I'll go with washed up also. Dunn ended the season 0-22 with 13Ks. Incredible.
I still have a Dunn T-shirt. Dude was the center of many spirited discussions on this board.

And next spring his name will show up in the "I'm in the best shape of my life, dude!" thread. :lol:

Sea Ray
10-11-2011, 04:58 PM
This thread wouldn't be complete without an article tallying up Dunn's season now that it's in the books. RZ likes numbers, well by the numbers, would anyone here argue that it's the worst offensive season in the modern era?


Here are some other "worsts" for a player with at least 496 plate appearances in a season:

Fewest hits, 66. (Next-fewest is 78, by Eddie Joost in 1943; Deer had 80.)
Lowest SLG with at least 11 HR, .277 (Next-lowest, Don Wert, 12 HR, .299 in 1968)
Lowest OBP with at least 75 BB, .292 (Next-lowest, Tom Tresh, 76 BB, .304 in 1968)
Lowest OPS with at least 11 HR and 75 BB, .569 (Next-lowest, Tresh, .612 in 1968)
Lowest OPS+ with at least 11 HR and 75 BB, 56 (Next-lowest, Frankie Crosetti, 73 in 1937)
Fewest runs with at least 11 HR and 75 BB, 36 (Next-lowest, Darrell Evans, 48 in 1988)
I could go on, but you get the point. Dunn's season was worse offensively than pretty much anyone from the Year of the Pitcher, 1968, and he broke other records that had stood for seven decades. All of the above numbers other than Dunn's were set by players who qualified for the batting title, and except for Evans (who was 41 and in the twilight of his otherwise fine career), all were in their "primes", such as they were...



It won't count, since he didn't get those last six plate appearances. Dunn may focus on working out in the offseason and shake this year off and put together three decent years for the rest of his White Sox contract. But his monumentally horrendous year deserves to be recognized somewhere, so we've done it here.
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/9/29/2458289/adam-dunn-almost-famous-baseball-records-white-sox

edabbs44
10-11-2011, 09:21 PM
Dunn's season was crazy bad. Any way you slice it.

signalhome
10-11-2011, 09:38 PM
This thread wouldn't be complete without an article tallying up Dunn's season now that it's in the books. RZ likes numbers, well by the numbers, would anyone here argue that it's the worst offensive season in the modern era?


http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/9/29/2458289/adam-dunn-almost-famous-baseball-records-white-sox

Since 2000, among players with at least 490 PA, his 2011 wOBA of .266 is tied for 12th-worst with his equally-bad teammate, Alex Rios. That awful mark gets even worse when you realize that the only people to have worse offensive seasons than him were Rey Ordonez, Ramon Santiago, Nick Punto, Ronny Cedeno, Cesar Izturis, Angel Berroa, Clint Barmes, Cristian Guzman, and the immortal Neifi Perez. Those are some pretty bad players.

His 2011 WAR of -2.9 is tied for 4th-worst of all-time. That is impressive.

edabbs44
10-11-2011, 09:41 PM
Since 2000, among players with at least 490 PA, his 2011 wOBA of .266 is tied for 12th-worst with his equally-bad teammate, Alex Rios. That awful mark gets even worse when you realize that the only people to have worse offensive seasons than him were Rey Ordonez, Ramon Santiago, Nick Punto, Ronny Cedeno, Cesar Izturis, Angel Berroa, Clint Barmes, Cristian Guzman, and the immortal Neifi Perez. Those are some pretty bad players.

His 2011 WAR of -2.9 is tied for 4th-worst of all-time. That is impressive.

Add the salary in to the equation and it gets even worse.

Brutus
10-11-2011, 09:49 PM
Since 2000, among players with at least 490 PA, his 2011 wOBA of .266 is tied for 12th-worst with his equally-bad teammate, Alex Rios. That awful mark gets even worse when you realize that the only people to have worse offensive seasons than him were Rey Ordonez, Ramon Santiago, Nick Punto, Ronny Cedeno, Cesar Izturis, Angel Berroa, Clint Barmes, Cristian Guzman, and the immortal Neifi Perez. Those are some pretty bad players.

His 2011 WAR of -2.9 is tied for 4th-worst of all-time. That is impressive.

Made worse by the distinction that he's a designated hitter and accumulated that WAR pretty much exclusively by being a bad hitter.

signalhome
10-11-2011, 09:53 PM
Add the salary in to the equation and it gets even worse.

And he's still signed for, what, three more years? Ouch. I really hope he turns it around, but after a season that bad, it's hard for me to really imagine him ever performing at the level that was expected of him when he signed that deal.

RedsManRick
10-12-2011, 06:46 PM
Made worse by the distinction that he's a designated hitter and accumulated that WAR pretty much exclusively by being a bad hitter.

DHs get dinged in WAR for the lack of defensive value.

Brutus
10-12-2011, 07:08 PM
DHs get dinged in WAR for the lack of defensive value.

Lack of defensive value is not always a bad thing. Obviously if DH's were position players, in many cases they'd get dinged worse for their below-average defensive value.

Since defensive value is set at "average," then I'd argue one could just as easily say DHs don't get the opportunity of improving their WAR on account of lack of defensive value

:)

Sea Ray
04-19-2012, 10:40 AM
Adam Dunn, spring 2012, .333/.515/.876, 4hr, 9bb, 1K! in 33pa.

disclaimer: I don't want to have this turn into an Adam Dunn is great/sucks thing. I'm just find myself fascinated by this player and if he can get back to the human homerun metronome that he was before 2011. And yes, it's a way small sample size, but, Dunn couldn't even hit a straight fastball over the plate last year.

Well Adam Dunn is now hitting .195 and leading the league in strike outs. One hit in 16 ABs vs LHPs.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

So much for Spring Training?

I know it's early but this has got to be discouraging for Adam Dunn and his fans.

lollipopcurve
04-19-2012, 10:54 AM
Well Adam Dunn is now hitting .195 and leading the league in strike outs. One hit in 16 ABs vs LHPs.

Swing looks long and slow. He may yet heat up, but mentally he's got to be scuffling big time.

Blimpie
04-19-2012, 01:17 PM
Well Adam Dunn is now hitting .195 and leading the league in strike outs. One hit in 16 ABs vs LHPs.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

So much for Spring Training?

I know it's early but this has got to be discouraging for Adam Dunn and his fans.Scott Rolen would be the local poster boy for that adage.

Sea Ray
04-19-2012, 02:07 PM
Scott Rolen would be the local poster boy for that adage.

He'd have a lot of company. In fact I'd argue for Jay Bruce myself but luckily none of those guys hit .159 last year

Nasty_Boy
04-19-2012, 03:52 PM
Dunn has been on base 6 of his last 7 plate appearances and is 2-3 with 2 doubles and 4 RBI the last 2 nights. One of those doubles was a bases clearing two bagger off of a LOOGY. His AVG now sits at .214 with a .745 OPS. Not great numbers but he's out hitting most of our guys and he would be second on the Reds in RBI. He's not what he was but if a hit raised his AVG 20 points then I'd say its a little early to be talking about a players struggles.

Sea Ray
04-19-2012, 04:01 PM
It's definitely early. We've got all yr to follow him and we'll do exactly that

oregonred
04-20-2012, 12:29 AM
It's definitely early. We've got all yr to follow him and we'll do exactly that

Rehashing an ex-Red's every move. That you can take to the bank on Redszone. :)

Ghosts of 1990
04-20-2012, 12:32 AM
Pulling for Dunn big time

Sea Ray
04-20-2012, 09:04 AM
Rehashing an ex-Red's every move. That you can take to the bank on Redszone. :)

You bet. I think it's very compelling conversation.

Let's face it. Adam Dunn is not just any ex-Red. He's arguably the most talked about Red on RZ of all time. There were quite a few Redszoners who argued that he was headed to the Hall of Fame. There were others who argued that he was just merely a good player. RZ wasn't as civil in those days. Those of us who argued the latter were accused of "having an agenda" and being tone deaf to modern stats to put it mildly. How Adam Dunn performs now will determine who ultimately who was right and not who his "comps" were 7 yrs ago.

wolfboy
04-20-2012, 09:09 AM
You bet. I think it's very compelling conversation.

Let's face it. Adam Dunn is not just any ex-Red. He's arguably the most talked about Red on RZ of all time. There were quite a few Redszoners who argued that he was headed to the Hall of Fame. There were others who argued that he was just merely a good player. RZ wasn't as civil in those days. Those of us who argued the latter were accused of "having an agenda" and being tone deaf to modern stats to put it mildly. How Adam Dunn performs now will determine who ultimately who was right and not who his "comps" were 7 yrs ago.

IMHO it sounds like "I told you so" much more than compelling conversation.

westofyou
04-20-2012, 09:12 AM
IMHO it sounds like "I told you so" much more than compelling conversation.

Yep... Adam Dunn left the Reds 4 years ago, now like every other player in the game he is experiencing a decline as he ages.

It affects his game today.

But the decline doesn't affect his time in Cincinnati one iota, and never will, no matter what the spin is.

Roy Tucker
04-20-2012, 09:23 AM
I'd like to calculate the amount of internet bits and bytes used on Adam Dunn.

I bet its a lot.

Sea Ray
04-20-2012, 09:25 AM
IMHO it sounds like "I told you so" much more than compelling conversation.

If I were to say that "I told you" that he would decline to these depths, I'd be lying. I never figured he'd hit .159, even if he played as long as Jamie Moyer. There are no I told you so's for the way Adam Dunn has been playing of late

wolfboy
04-20-2012, 09:42 AM
If I were to say that "I told you" that he would decline to these depths, I'd be lying. I never figured he'd hit .159, even if he played as long as Jamie Moyer. There are no I told you so's for the way Adam Dunn has been playing of late

I absolutely agree with you there. He's been bad beyond belief.

jojo
04-20-2012, 09:42 AM
To be fair, alot of arguments against Dunn were bunk. And this is coming from some one who held a position based almost entirely upon a sabermetric argument that Dunn was overrated as a Red and likely wouldn't age well (i.e. its coming from someone who seems to have nailed it though its important to point out that Dunn still has alot of say in how that aging thing turns out).

In other words, concerning the valuation of Dunn, I remember alot of crazy things being said about strikeouts, rbis, not hitting enough sac flys, batting average, batting average with RISP, not running fast enough to the dug out, whispers about clubhouse persona etc... In other words, there was alot of misplaced Dunn hate based upon bad stat analysis.

Dunn was an above average player during his career as a Red. That's valuable. Its just overall he wasn't as valuable as a focus solely upon his offensive production would suggest (and make no mistake, his bat was prolific despite strikeouts, BA/RISP, "walking too much" etc). He was a homegrown player that was above average as a major leager while hitting homeruns at a rate that places him among the best to ever put on a Reds uniform. The Reds largely managed his contract well too. It's tough to see how that is anything other than a victory for the Reds.

It seems to me that anyone wanting to focus on Dunn with the Whitesox because of comp lists discussed 7 years ago, is pretty much completely missing the point.

wolfboy
04-20-2012, 09:46 AM
In other words, concerning the valuation of Dunn, I remember alot of crazy things being said about strikeouts, rbis, not hitting enough sac flys, batting average, batting average with RISP, not running fast enough to the dug out, whispers about clubhouse persona etc... In other words, there was alot of misplaced Dunn hate based upon bad stat analysis

That's what I remember as well. Don't forget the lazy boys in the clubhouse. I think plenty of saber oriented folks took the position that he'd see a steep decline (though he's declined much steeper than anyone could have predicted) as he aged, but much of the criticism was bunk. In many ways, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Guys are still being hammered on because they don't look passionate enough, they strike out too much, etc, etc...

Crumbley
04-20-2012, 10:04 AM
The idea that Dunn being terrible now is somehow vindication for people who thought he was bad eight years ago is laughable. Five years of drugs and booze doesn't mean Lindsey Lohan wasn't great in Mean Girls.

Sea Ray
04-20-2012, 10:07 AM
The idea that Dunn being terrible now is somehow vindication for people who thought he was bad eight years ago is laughable. Five years of drugs and booze doesn't mean Lindsey Lohan wasn't great in Mean Girls.

I don't know of anyone who thought he was bad as a Red. I had the opinion of JoJo that he was a valuable, above avg player as a Red.

Johnny Footstool
04-20-2012, 10:46 AM
I don't know of anyone who thought he was bad as a Red. I had the opinion of JoJo that he was a valuable, above avg player as a Red.

There was plenty of hate for Dunn while he was a Red.

wolfboy
04-20-2012, 10:56 AM
While there may not have been a lot of people that called Dunn a bad player, there were more than a handful that were quick to place blame for the team's woes on Dunn's shoulders.

wolfboy
04-20-2012, 11:01 AM
I do find some irony in comparing this thread, which discusses the negative side of Dunn's career as an ex-Red, and this thread: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68235&page=21 which largely discussed the positive side of Dunn's career as an ex-Red.

cincrazy
04-20-2012, 11:06 AM
The idea that Dunn being terrible now is somehow vindication for people who thought he was bad eight years ago is laughable. Five years of drugs and booze doesn't mean Lindsey Lohan wasn't great in Mean Girls.

I love the Mean Girls analogy :) hahaha.

Boss-Hog
04-20-2012, 11:15 AM
I do find some irony in comparing this thread, which discusses the negative side of Dunn's career as an ex-Red, and this thread: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68235&page=21 which largely discussed the positive side of Dunn's career as an ex-Red.

I believe that thread was OK until the bickering started that had nothing to do with the thread's original purpose. The intention of this thread is pretty clear and the discussion so far has mostly been on topic.

smith288
04-20-2012, 12:05 PM
My twin brother Sonny HATED Dunn. I loved Dunn. A family divided in those days.

cincrazy
04-20-2012, 12:41 PM
It was a very frustrating time for Reds fans. Every bad organization has a whipping boy of sorts over the years, and Dunn, while a very good player, was that particular player for this fanbase. This isn't unique to the city of Cincinnati. Boston was tough on Ted Williams, Philly tough on Mike Schmidt. And those guys were Hall of Fame, all-time greats. Dunn was a great player, but the hype around him coming into the majors was unfair. He was perceived as the franchise savior, as was Kearns. When in reality we needed better management in place to turn things around. I think this franchise is learning in that regard.

757690
04-20-2012, 12:54 PM
First, according Fangraphs, Dunn was an average to below average player with the Reds, averging 2.88 WAR a season, during his Reds tenure. He did have some above average years, but overall, he was providing around league average production for the team.

The funny thing about Dunn is that many fans thought he was terrible, the reason why the Reds stunk, which is silly, since he could have provided Hank Aaron type production and the Reds still wouldn't have competed with their pitching staff.

What's also funny is that many fans thought he wasnt as good as his offensive stats said he was, but for the most part they were right for all the wrong reasons. They argued that he wasn't clutch, that he didn't hustle, that he struck out too much, when really his main flaw was that he couldn't play left field.

I think that's why he was such a lightening rod. People thought he was overrated, but just couldn't put their finger in why, until the advanced defensive metrics came out, at which point he was no longer on the team.

indy_dave00
04-20-2012, 01:07 PM
The part that still amazes me is for their careers Adam Dunn has a higher on base% than Ichiro . That in its self is a stat which I'm sure would shock most people.

jojo
04-20-2012, 01:11 PM
First, according Fangraphs, Dunn was an average to below average player with the Reds, averging 2.88 WAR a season, during his Reds tenure. He did have some above average years, but overall, he was providing around league average production for the team.

The funny thing about Dunn is that many fans thought he was terrible, the reason why the Reds stunk, which is silly, since he could have provided Hank Aaron type production and the Reds still wouldn't have competed with their pitching staff.

What's also funny is that many fans thought he wasnt as good as his offensive stats said he was, but for the most part they were right for all the wrong reasons. They argued that he wasn't clutch, that he didn't hustle, that he struck out too much, when really his main flaw was that he couldn't play left field.

I think that's why he was such a lightening rod. People thought he was overrated, but just couldn't put their finger in why, until the advanced defensive metrics came out, at which point he was no longer on the team.

You've made me nostalgic.... here's my very first post, ever, on redszone:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1199677&postcount=13


Hi one and all! This is my first post.....

I think the appropriate question would be, why would SD trade Peavy for Dunn?

Peavy, in his mid-20's, is already one of the best arms in the NL and is a bona fide TOR guy-a power pitcher with mild ground ball tendencies good for 200 innings. His xFIPS for '04 thru '06 have been 3.56, 3.13, and 3.82 respectively (so his effectiveness is not a product of playing in a pitcher's park). To top it off, the Padres control him for 3 more seasons (07:$4.75M, 08:$6M, 09:$8M club option) at rates that guarantee payroll value barring injury. Really why would the Padres want to trade him at all?

Now consider Dunn. His ’06 VORP was 23 (that in and of itself should be a red flag for those speaking his name in the same sentence as Peavy). His '06 UZR rates his defense at -23 runs. His converted PMR rating is -7 runs. So if you accept the above range for his defense of -7 to -23 runs for ‘06, his true value was roughly 0 to 16 runs over replacement or 1.5 wins at best. Needless to say, $7.5M for a win or less is NOT a bargain. The ’06 Dunn really is a lot easier to replace than many may think. Basically ‘06 Dunn was a marginal player who was grossly overpaid. Unfortunately he’s due another big raise. If the $10.5M Dunn of ’07 returns to the ’05 Dunn with a VORP of 45 then he’s somewhere between a 2 and 3.5 win player after considering his defense. At 2 wins, he’d be horribly overpaid. At 3.5 wins he’s $3M a win which is about right (wins are $2-2.5M per by convention) but still he’s not a bargain. It’s difficult for me to see Dunn being worth $13M in true production value in ’08 even if he’s the ’04 offensive version (defense really does matter ). If the '06 version of Dunn returns at any point in his remaining contract, well, a bad deal just got even more painful. Needless to say there is a lot of pressure on Dunn's bat. Will he be the Dunn that sabermetrics fell in love with or the guy who hit 40 hrs with a SLG below .500 (BTW kudos to Dunn-that’s a hard thing to do!). At this point I'd humbly suggest that even though he's in his *prime* years, 27 yo hitters typically don't reinvent themselves and suddenly stop striking out and begin effectively using the whole field (though a little of that could go a long way for Dunn). Certainly 27 yo's don't suddenly learn to play defense (peak for the leather is 24).

Anyway, would I trade Dunn for Peavy? Heck ya!!!!!!!!

But why would the Padres do that deal?

Great discussions going on at redszone in the fall of 2006. Anyway, thankfully, I got over my fixation with smileys fairly quickly.

Brutus
04-20-2012, 01:27 PM
In other words, concerning the valuation of Dunn, I remember alot of crazy things being said about strikeouts, rbis, not hitting enough sac flys, batting average, batting average with RISP, not running fast enough to the dug out, whispers about clubhouse persona etc... In other words, there was alot of misplaced Dunn hate based upon bad stat analysis.



So basically it's "bad stat analysis" do value anything other than what you think is a valid stat?

It's certainly possible people were putting too much emphasis on things, but I don't think it's a an irrational view to expect baseball players to be able to make contact, move runners over and drive people in. Nor is it unfair to say that hustle, leadership, work ethic, etc. (i.e. intangibles) might be a reason a player isn't living up to their full potential.

How this relates to Adam Dunn is not really important, because those conversations were had and I don't see a value in worrying if they're legit or not, even in hindsight. I don't think the mocking tone is necessary, though, to those others that value those things you mentioned. It doesn't make it bad stat analysis to bring them up especially without considering the context in which they're discussed.

jojo
04-20-2012, 02:20 PM
So basically it's "bad stat analysis" do value anything other than what you think is a valid stat?

No. It's bad stat analysis when statistics are misused to reach a conclusion. This is easily avoided by properly using the best statistics in their proper context while an appreciation of their limitations is allowed to color the strength of the conclusion. An example of bad stat analysis would be overvaluing strikeouts, rbis, sac flys, batting average, batting average with RISP etc when valuating a hitter-approaches the weaknesses of which have been discussed ad naseum on the ORG.


It's certainly possible people were putting too much emphasis on things, but I don't think it's a an irrational view to expect baseball players to be able to make contact, move runners over and drive people in. Nor is it unfair to say that hustle, leadership, work ethic, etc. (i.e. intangibles) might be a reason a player isn't living up to their full potential.

Adam Dunn posted a triple slash line of .247/.380/.520 (OPS=.900) good for a wOBA of .383 during his 8 year career as a Red. During that period, there were only 30 players with a higher wOBA in the majors. Focusing only on players who logged at least 4000 PAs, Dunn's bat was ranked 17th by wOBA. Evaluation of his offense using arguments emphasizing batting average, hustle and leadership completely miss the point in a pretty dramatic fashion. Evaluating his bat using things like rbis and BA/RISP is an obviously flawed approach. I'm sorry, but it just is.


How this relates to Adam Dunn is not really important, because those conversations were had and I don't see a value in worrying if they're legit or not, even in hindsight. I don't think the mocking tone is necessary, though, to those others that value those things you mentioned. It doesn't make it bad stat analysis to bring them up especially without considering the context in which they're discussed.

There was NO mocking tone. Sometimes a post means just what it says. Insipid metacommentary like this is killing redzone by sucking the flavor out of any baseball discussion.

Brutus
04-20-2012, 02:47 PM
No. It's bad stat analysis when statistics are misused to reach a conclusion. This is easily avoided by properly using the best statistics in their proper context while an appreciation of their limitations is allowed to color the strength of the conclusion. An example of bad stat analysis would be overvaluing strikeouts, rbis, sac flys, batting average, batting average with RISP etc when valuating a hitter-approaches the weaknesses of which have been discussed ad naseum on the ORG.



Adam Dunn posted a triple slash line of .247/.380/.520 (OPS=.900) good for a wOBA of .383 during his 8 year career as a Red. During that period, there were only 30 players with a higher wOBA in the majors. Focusing only on players who logged at least 4000 PAs, Dunn's bat was ranked 17th by wOBA. Evaluation of his offense using arguments emphasizing batting average, hustle and leadership completely miss the point in a pretty dramatic fashion. Evaluating his bat using things like rbis and BA/RISP is an obviously flawed approach. I'm sorry, but it just is.



There was NO mocking tone. Sometimes a post means just what it says. Insipid metacommentary like this is killing redzone by sucking the flavor out of any baseball discussion.

What's sucking the flavor out of baseball discussion is when someone imposes a subjective, arbitrary opinion and declares one's self the judge and jury of which stats constitute "bad" stats. I think you'll find people to be a little offended by being told what is and is not a good stat. Saying something is a flawed approach because "it just is" does nothing to advance a discussion. That's the sports debate version of "because I said so."

Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. Overvaluing to you might be undervaluing to another. No one person should think so much of their soapbox they dictate what constitutes a good or bad stat. There are some stats that correlate or regress better than others. But that doesn't mean there's no place for those other stats in a debate, especially given the context of a discussion.

It's a mistake to assume that lesser-correlated stats cannot be used as a basis for an analysis, especially since even those things correlate in a meaningful way to run production. Like it or not, all of those quantifiable things you mentioned have meaningful, tested correlation to run scoring, albeit some more than others. It means they all are considered a significant factor. They all count toward the total value of a baseball player's contributions. It's not bad analysis to use them, especially in the context of a player's flaws, shortcomings and areas that can be improved to reach full potential.

Using lesser-correlated stats is not a bad analysis, especially if it means the other person is taking the intent out of context. However, dismissing all other variances in favor of the most correlated value and assuming causation from correlation are also very dangerous mathematical principles that are arguably worse than the so-called "bad stat analysis" you're suggesting.

Just for some humorous context, you said in another discussion .57 correlation could cure cancer. The merits, or debated lack thereof, of such a statement aside, batting average correlates higher than that. But here you are in this instance saying it's bad stat analysis to bring it up. Thus showing it's all about context and what you value.

dougdirt
04-20-2012, 02:59 PM
Adam Dunn needs to find his old approach.

The last 3 years (ever since he left the Reds), he has been swinging at pitches outside of the zone about 50% more than he did as a Red. We all know that even strikes, he is going to swing through plenty. He needs to hone in his swing zone to where it used to be. He may not be able to rebound, because honestly, he may have lost some bat speed (I don't know, I haven't watched him enough), but honing in a stronger plate approach with a better swing zone would do him well.

jojo
04-20-2012, 03:08 PM
Brutus, with all due respect, what is the correlation of hustle to Dunn's affect on run creation as a Red? How does a focus on sac flies inform Dunn's value better than wOBA? Likewise for strikeouts. How does reducing his 4500+ PAs as a red to the much smaller situational splits improve the estimate of his offensive value? What does any of this have to do with r2 (answer nothing)?

As a Red, Dunn got on base at a .380 clip while slugging .520 and you're actually arguing batting average?????

This really isn't a subjective grey area. Your argument that flawed approaches should be treated equally just doesn't hold water.

And yes, it is the insipid metacommentary that is sucking the flavor from redszone.

Brutus
04-20-2012, 03:15 PM
Brutus, with all due respect, what is the correlation of hustle to Dunn's affect on run creation as a Red? How does a focus on sac flies inform Dunn's value better than wOBA? Likewise for strikeouts. How does reducing his 4500+ PAs as a red to the much smaller situational splits improve the estimate of his offensive value? What does any of this have to do with r2 (answer nothing)?

As a Red, Dunn got on base at a .380 clip while slugging .520 and you're actually arguing batting average?????

This really isn't a subjective grey area. Your argument that flawed approaches should be treated equally just doesn't hold water.

And yes, it is the insipid metacommentary that is sucking the flavor from redszone.

I said quantifiable measurements. Hustle, work ethic, etc. isn't quantifiable, so I wasn't referring to those things. However, it's also not prudent to dismiss things on the basis they're not measurable. Those things do directly have a bearing on actual on-field performance. One of the hotly debated topics on Dunn was his work ethic and whether it would lead to sustainable long-term success. I think it's fair to wonder, in light of these last 18 months, whether those questions were at least fair.

Your point about me "arguing batting average" is the exact kind of context I'm referring to. I make a statement about citing it, and you're automatically construing that, without any context whatsoever, to say something I haven't cited a stance about. That's the kind of context that clearly is missing when you start harping on "bad stat analysis." Basically you're asserting it can't be discussed. I'd say it wholly depends on what the context of the discussion is about as to whether it is important. Those things are key ingredients but you're wiping them out far too broadly.

My argument is that you are not the judge or jury at what constitutes "flawed approaches." Saying something is flawed doesn't make it so, no matter how many times you repeat such rhetoric. And trying to impose your own subjective beliefs as to what stats are valid metrics doesn't promote healthy discussion. It promotes divisive bickering.

jojo
04-20-2012, 03:24 PM
I said quantifiable measurements. Hustle, work ethic, etc. isn't quantifiable, so I wasn't referring to those things. However, it's also not prudent to dismiss things on the basis they're not measurable. Those things do directly have a bearing on actual on-field performance. One of the hotly debated topics on Dunn was his work ethic and whether it would lead to sustainable long-term success. I think it's fair to wonder, in light of these last 18 months, whether those questions were at least fair.

Your point about me "arguing batting average" is the exact kind of context I'm referring to. I make a statement about citing it, and you're automatically construing that, without any context whatsoever, to say something I haven't cited a stance about. That's the kind of context that clearly is missing when you start harping on "bad stat analysis." Basically you're asserting it can't be discussed. I'd say it wholly depends on what the context of the discussion is about as to whether it is important. Those things are key ingredients but you're wiping them out far too broadly.

My argument is that you are not the judge or jury at what constitutes "flawed approaches." Saying something is flawed doesn't make it so, no matter how many times you repeat such rhetoric. And trying to impose your own subjective beliefs as to what stats are valid metrics doesn't promote healthy discussion. It promotes divisive bickering.

Batting average was a major criticism of Dunn by those who would often undervalue Dunn's bat as a Red----that's the context you're missing/ignoring in order to talk about me. Clearly focusing on batting average would lead one to a wrong conclusion about Dunn.

wolfboy
04-20-2012, 03:28 PM
I believe that thread was OK until the bickering started that had nothing to do with the thread's original purpose. The intention of this thread is pretty clear and the discussion so far has mostly been on topic.

Boss, the irony I mention has nothing to do with the mods closing the thread. I agree that it needed to be closed and I agree with the rationale for closing it; however, it seems like some folks didn't want to talk about Adam Dunn then, but do now. Just my observation.

Brutus
04-20-2012, 03:34 PM
Batting average was a major criticism of Dunn by those who would often undervalue Dunn's bat as a Red----that's the context you're missing/ignoring in order to talk about me. Clearly focusing on batting average would lead one to a wrong conclusion about Dunn.

But according to your own statements, batting average would cure cancer. It cannot be reconciled that in one argument, a stat correlates enough to "cure cancer" but here in another situation you're telling me it's "bad stat analysis" to use it.

That's not a very consistent viewpoint.

Boss-Hog
04-20-2012, 06:48 PM
Boss, the irony I mention has nothing to do with the mods closing the thread. I agree that it needed to be closed and I agree with the rationale for closing it; however, it seems like some folks didn't want to talk about Adam Dunn then, but do now. Just my observation.

I'm with you...

jojo
04-20-2012, 07:18 PM
But according to your own statements, batting average would cure cancer. It cannot be reconciled that in one argument, a stat correlates enough to "cure cancer" but here in another situation you're telling me it's "bad stat analysis" to use it.

That's not a very consistent viewpoint.

Concerning “cancer and BA”, my position is very consistent when considering the actual context of the discussion especially since in the context of the very quote you evoked I argued that there are better ways to estimate runs than batting average so we use them instead...

But first, lets focus on the heart of the argument for a moment and consider the best statistical approach to evaluating the worth of Dunn’s bat as a Red. Considering the period between 2001 thru 2008, Dunn was the 31st most productive bat in baseball based upon his wOBA for that period (17th highest if focusing upon players with at least 4500 PA’s, i.e. ones that like Dunn essentially played every season in that span). In other words, wOBA, a measure of his total offensive contribution to runs, suggests Dunn was easily in the top 10 percent of the most productive bats in baseball. Based upon batting average, Dunn was only the 415th best hitter in the game over that period. In the cohort that managed 4500+ PA’s during that period, Dunn was the worst hitter in that game based upon BA. In other words, BA suggests that Dunn was a significantly below average offensive player as a Red.

With all due respect, an argument that maintains either statistic is interchangeable when answering the specific question of Dunn’s offensive value needs to be thoughtfully reconsidered. Clearly wOBA strikes at the heart of the question while BA simply distracts. Why? Because the limitations of BA makes it much less useful than wOBA.

Im sure that about 99% of redzone could give a flip, but just for context, concerning “cancer and BA”, the statement you’ve paraphrased was part of a conversation about whether a pitcher controls SLG implicitly through a repeatable skill or whether the apparent effect being discussed in relationship to Cueto can be explained in large part by swings in BABIP. In that conversation the correlations between BA, BABIP, and SLG were discussed and roughly 4 years of data were used to demonstrate correlations. BA correlated to SLG (.83), BA correlated to BABIP (.87) and BABIP correlated to SLG at .57. Here are the exact quotes discussing the relationship between BABIP and SLG:


Actually, it's a correlation strong enough to cure cancer and controlling for usage, league, park etc would likely tighten rather than weaken the correlation. Add HR and Ks back in and it's BA/SLG.


BA does predict runs well. We ignore the link now because we have better estimators. We also know exactly why BABIP doesn't correlate with SLG as well as BA does. For the purposes of this discussion, that's an important point.

Clearly I was arguing that the correlation between BABIP and SLG in this instance is sufficient to indicate that it’s likely that BABIP can largely explain the difference in Cueto’s SLG that was being discussed because the reality is that BABIP can largely explain the difference in BA and the weaker correlation associated with BABIP/SLG is largely due to dropping “non ball-in-play” events from BA while not controlling for factors outside of the pitcher’s control. In other words, the weaker correlation measured between BABIP/SLG was not due to an effect exerted by the pitcher but rather it was due to explainable factors.

Lets talk about cancer for a moment. If a doctor told you that you have a cancer that will kill you in six months if left untreated but there is a treatment option that has increased survival with an r2=.57, do you look upon it as a waste of time or do you look upon it as a viable treatment for your cancer? Now if your doctor calls you a week later and indicates a new drug has just been released that correlates with survival at an r2=.92, do you tell him, no thanks, ill stick with the old way? The livestock industry has made billions selecting for traits with a lower heritability. Context is everything.

One has to ignore an awful lot to take that conversation and suggest there is an inconsistency in the way I treat BA.


It's bad stat analysis when statistics are misused to reach a conclusion. This is easily avoided by properly using the best statistics in their proper context while an appreciation of their limitations is allowed to color the strength of the conclusion. An example of bad stat analysis would be overvaluing strikeouts, rbis, sac flys, batting average, batting average with RISP etc when valuating a hitter-approaches the weaknesses of which have been discussed ad naseum on the ORG.

edabbs44
04-20-2012, 07:35 PM
Considering the period between 2001 thru 2008, Dunn was the 31st most productive bat in baseball based upon his wOBA for that period (17th highest if focusing upon players with at least 4500 PA’s, i.e. ones that like Dunn essentially played every season in that span).

Isn't that skewing the sample in his favor just a bit?

jojo
04-20-2012, 08:01 PM
Isn't that skewing the sample in his favor just a bit?

Those are the years that Dunn was a Red.

edabbs44
04-20-2012, 08:26 PM
Those are the years that Dunn was a Red.

And it is a very favorable way of looking at him.

jojo
04-20-2012, 08:36 PM
And it is a very favorable way of looking at him.

It was offered in the context of how he was valued as a Red. What years would you suggest are more appropriate?

AtomicDumpling
04-20-2012, 08:58 PM
Dunn was the best player the Reds had for nearly a decade and he was the only player fans would stop what they were doing to watch his at-bats, yet many people still hated him. Other players were good for stretches, but Dunn was very good for a long time. Much of the most ignorant hatred came from the mouth of Marty Brennaman, which of course turned the fan base against Adam. It was a sad display by Reds fandom.

I think the sharply abrupt decline suffered by Dunn in 2011 must have some sort of strange cause beyond simply age. My guess is eyesight. Seems like the only way he could go from a very good hitter for a decade to an awful hitter in the blink of an eye. Nobody predicted his production would fall off a cliff so quickly.

The only argument people were stating for Dunn to reach the Hall of Fame was if he were able to reach 500 home runs or more. Nobody was saying his body of work was good enough for the Hall of Fame without being near the top of the home run record book.

dougdirt
04-20-2012, 09:03 PM
Dunn was the best player the Reds had for nearly a decade and he was the only player fans would stop what they were doing to watch his at-bats, yet many people still hated him. Other players were good for stretches, but Dunn was very good for a long time. Much of the most ignorant hatred came from the mouth of Marty Brennaman, which of course turned the fan base against Adam. It was a sad display by Reds fandom.

I think the sharply abrupt decline suffered by Dunn in 2011 must have some sort of strange cause beyond simply age. My guess is eyesight. Seems like the only way he could go from a very good hitter for a decade to an awful hitter in the blink of an eye. Nobody predicted his production would fall off a cliff so quickly.

The only argument people were stating for Dunn to reach the Hall of Fame was if he were able to reach 500 home runs or more. Nobody was saying his body of work was good enough for the Hall of Fame without being near the top of the home run record book.
I had thought about the eyesight thing, but his change in approach likely has something to do with it too. As I noted last page among the senseless bickering, he is expanding the zone about 50% more now than he ever did as a Red and he has mentioned that he was doing it on purpose in the past to try and make more contact and be aggressive.

kbrake
04-20-2012, 09:13 PM
Dunn was the best player the Reds had for nearly a decade and he was the only player fans would stop what they were doing to watch his at-bats, yet many people still hated him. Other players were good for stretches, but Dunn was very good for a long time. Much of the most ignorant hatred came from the mouth of Marty Brennaman, which of course turned the fan base against Adam. It was a sad display by Reds fandom.

I think the sharply abrupt decline suffered by Dunn in 2011 must have some sort of strange cause beyond simply age. My guess is eyesight. Seems like the only way he could go from a very good hitter for a decade to an awful hitter in the blink of an eye. Nobody predicted his production would fall off a cliff so quickly.

The only argument people were stating for Dunn to reach the Hall of Fame was if he were able to reach 500 home runs or more. Nobody was saying his body of work was good enough for the Hall of Fame without being near the top of the home run record book.


This is a great post. Marty had a huge impact on how the fans viewed Adam Dunn. I wouldn't have been such a supporter of him if I thought the criticism thrown his way was at least some what deserved. On teams that had very little MLB talent lots of Reds fans picked away at every little thing they didn't like about Adam Dunn's game. I appreciated his offense, his willingness to play every single day, and all the walk off homeruns he hit. They were memorable.

Brutus
04-20-2012, 09:32 PM
Im sure that about 99% of redzone could give a flip, but just for context, concerning “cancer and BA”, the statement you’ve paraphrased was part of a conversation about whether a pitcher controls SLG implicitly through a repeatable skill or whether the apparent effect being discussed in relationship to Cueto can be explained in large part by swings in BABIP. In that conversation the correlations between BA, BABIP, and SLG were discussed and roughly 4 years of data were used to demonstrate correlations. BA correlated to SLG (.83), BA correlated to BABIP (.87) and BABIP correlated to SLG at .57. Here are the exact quotes discussing the relationship between BABIP and SLG:

I fully understand the context in which you were speaking. But the point is that you were equating a correlation of that magnitude to being statistically significant. And you're absolutely right in suggesting it's significant, because a correlation over .1 is meaningful and a correlation near .6 is definitely significant. The issue, though, is that you're implying in this conversation that batting average is near worthless in all context. It's still statistically significant, which means there are certain aspects of a conversation where a low batting average might be relevant for discussion.

For instance: some people believe that batting average-driven OBA is more important than walk-driven OBA when the two are the same. That probably isn't debated by anyone, as it means many more runners will advance in a BA-driven context. There are others that believe, then, if you had a team full of players relying solely on walks and homers, but didn't put a lot of contact in, didn't pick up a lot of extra random bases, etc., that the theoretical output is not optimized.

For me, I have never been here nor there on Adam Dunn. My take is that a bat was put in the hands of baseball players for a reason, and while walks are better than outs, I appreciate the skill of those that can swing a bat and regularly make contact with the ball. I'd prefer the full package, mind you (i.e. making contact, drawing walks in lieu of swinging at bad pitches and hitting for power), but at the same time, the value in a high OBP and hitting for power in undeniable. For that reason, Dunn did have a lot of offensive value to a team. I don't think many people truly denied that, however. The issue was whether the little things were enough to merit the gist of the debates.


Lets talk about cancer for a moment. If a doctor told you that you have a cancer that will kill you in six months if left untreated but there is a treatment option that has increased survival with an r2=.57, do you look upon it as a waste of time or do you look upon it as a viable treatment for your cancer? Now if your doctor calls you a week later and indicates a new drug has just been released that correlates with survival at an r2=.92, do you tell him, no thanks, ill stick with the old way? The livestock industry has made billions selecting for traits with a lower heritability. Context is everything.

FYI, you seem to be conflating r and r2. Correlation as you seem to be referring to is r. The r2 figure is the correlation squared, which explains the variance.

Batting average, for instance, correlates (depending on the sample used) somewhere around .64 (r). Its r2 would be around .41. For an r2 of .92, the correlation of coefficient (r) would have to be .96.

Anyhow, to your question: do I stick with the old way or new way? That's the problem... you're speaking holistically and not accounting for reasonable critique within parts of the whole.

If you by a loaded PC that comes with a great motherboard, awesome video graphics card, a fast DVD burner and a large hard drive but the RAM is less than desirable, should we toss out your desire for RAM expansion because the computer is has a lot of bells and whistles? If you want more RAM, it doesn't mean you dislike the computer.

Sometimes it's good to consider the big picture. But over-simplification can be misleading. There are people that want to look beyond the computer as a whole and wish some of the individual parts could be more productive. It would make the computer that much better. When you start talking batting average, RISP, sac flies, etc., in certain context, those are fair parts of a baseball game that have value. It's debatable as to how much, but it doesn't mean they're bad stats.

Bottom line is we can't have it both ways. If we're talking statistical concepts, a statistically significant correlation means just what it says. So we can't just toss out something that's significant because it doesn't fit the chosen agenda. It's certainly fair to mention that something else might correlate at a higher number, but the context of what's being debated has to be considered.

jojo
04-20-2012, 10:45 PM
I fully understand the context in which you were speaking. But the point is that you were equating a correlation of that magnitude to being statistically significant. And you're absolutely right in suggesting it's significant, because a correlation over .1 is meaningful and a correlation near .6 is definitely significant. The issue, though, is that you're implying in this conversation that batting average is near worthless in all context. It's still statistically significant, which means there are certain aspects of a conversation where a low batting average might be relevant for discussion.

For instance: some people believe that batting average-driven OBA is more important than walk-driven OBA when the two are the same. That probably isn't debated by anyone, as it means many more runners will advance in a BA-driven context. There are others that believe, then, if you had a team full of players relying solely on walks and homers, but didn't put a lot of contact in, didn't pick up a lot of extra random bases, etc., that the theoretical output is not optimized.

For me, I have never been here nor there on Adam Dunn. My take is that a bat was put in the hands of baseball players for a reason, and while walks are better than outs, I appreciate the skill of those that can swing a bat and regularly make contact with the ball. I'd prefer the full package, mind you (i.e. making contact, drawing walks in lieu of swinging at bad pitches and hitting for power), but at the same time, the value in a high OBP and hitting for power in undeniable. For that reason, Dunn did have a lot of offensive value to a team. I don't think many people truly denied that, however. The issue was whether the little things were enough to merit the gist of the debates.



FYI, you seem to be conflating r and r2. Correlation as you seem to be referring to is r. The r2 figure is the correlation squared, which explains the variance.

Batting average, for instance, correlates (depending on the sample used) somewhere around .64 (r). Its r2 would be around .41. For an r2 of .92, the correlation of coefficient (r) would have to be .96.

Anyhow, to your question: do I stick with the old way or new way? That's the problem... you're speaking holistically and not accounting for reasonable critique within parts of the whole.

If you by a loaded PC that comes with a great motherboard, awesome video graphics card, a fast DVD burner and a large hard drive but the RAM is less than desirable, should we toss out your desire for RAM expansion because the computer is has a lot of bells and whistles? If you want more RAM, it doesn't mean you dislike the computer.

Sometimes it's good to consider the big picture. But over-simplification can be misleading. There are people that want to look beyond the computer as a whole and wish some of the individual parts could be more productive. It would make the computer that much better. When you start talking batting average, RISP, sac flies, etc., in certain context, those are fair parts of a baseball game that have value. It's debatable as to how much, but it doesn't mean they're bad stats.

Bottom line is we can't have it both ways. If we're talking statistical concepts, a statistically significant correlation means just what it says. So we can't just toss out something that's significant because it doesn't fit the chosen agenda. It's certainly fair to mention that something else might correlate at a higher number, but the context of what's being debated has to be considered.

FYI, it was pretty clear I was talking about correlation analysis and discussing the resulting r2 with the obvious interpretation assumed a given.

Razor Shines
04-20-2012, 11:03 PM
.874 OPS after a double and a HR tonight.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

jojo
04-20-2012, 11:04 PM
.874 OPS after a double and a HR tonight.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It looks like Seattle suits him.

Brutus
04-20-2012, 11:38 PM
FYI, it was pretty clear I was talking about correlation analysis and discussing the resulting r2 with the obvious interpretation assumed a given.

It wasn't clear at all. In your first post about the BABIP/Slugging, you were calling it both correlation and r2 and using the same numbers in doing so. In your response above, you said it correlated to slugging at .57 but you used the same .57 as r2 in your later example. I didn't find anything that was clear in how you differentiated the two.

Sea Ray
04-21-2012, 12:17 AM
The only argument people were stating for Dunn to reach the Hall of Fame was if he were able to reach 500 home runs or more. Nobody was saying his body of work was good enough for the Hall of Fame without being near the top of the home run record book.

Actually some were doing both: predicting that he would hit 550-600 HRs and make the Hall just two yrs ago:



http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2079973&postcount=166

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2082242&postcount=180

This was a glimmer of reason:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2082406&postcount=203

Looks like the folks in Chicago are already calling for him to be benched:



I suppose fine is a relative term and if fine means being hitless against left-handed pitching…then I suppose we could define Dunn’s performance to this point as such. But, even considering the small sample size, it is just about time to see if someone else on the bench could be finer. While the options are limited and I don’t in anyway believe we are holding back Brent Lillibridge from a Hall of Fame career, the scrappy 28-year-old deserves to be getting more playing time. Kenny Williams will need to swallow hard on the fifty-six million dollar bill, but even if the move simply creates a trade market for the utility man isn’t the club better off in the long run?
http://www.examiner.com/article/time-for-ventura-to-sit-dunn

WMR
04-21-2012, 01:02 AM
LOL, thanks for the quote, Sea Ray. I said that about two years ago... after his historically poor season last year, Dunn is now about 130 home runs from 500. When that post was made, even the most conservative of estimates would have had Dunn easily eclipsing 500 with a final tally in the ballpark of 550 assuming normal career progression for a player of his build.

It's pretty funny how you use Dunn's historically bad drop-off as some sort of "gotcha" towards those who appreciated the guy while he was a Red. No one, even big, hulking guys like Dunn, experiences the sort of drop off from one season to the next without some sort of extenuating circumstance factoring in somewhere. Maybe Dunn has gotten it squared away?

I'll be cheering for the guy. He was the best player on the Reds for a long time.

OnBaseMachine
04-21-2012, 01:16 AM
Dunner went 3-for-4 with a double, 2 HR, and 5 RBI tonight. Now OPSing .940 and is on pace for 37 homers. I'd love to see him keep those numbers up. Dunn is one of my favorite players ever and was one of the most underrated hitters in baseball for quite a while.

Vottomatic
04-21-2012, 03:36 AM
I look for him to have a bounce back season. Seriously. Anyone would have been embarrassed enough by his last season to put in some extra offseason effort to make sure it didn't happen again. And I think he did.

AtomicDumpling
04-21-2012, 04:19 AM
Adam Dunn now has 368 career home runs and is #72 on the all-time list between Hall of Famers Ralph Kiner and Joe DiMaggio. It was the 30th time he has hit two home runs in one game. He hit three home runs in a game back in 2010 against the Padres while he was a Washington National.

Hopefully Dunn can continue hitting well all year long and maybe be the Comeback Player of the Year. He was such a great hitter for so long and I hope he puts his awful 2011 season in the rear view mirror and gets back to being one of the best hitters in the league like he was for a decade.

Topcat
04-21-2012, 04:28 AM
Adam Dunn now has 368 career home runs and is #72 on the all-time list between Hall of Famers Ralph Kiner and Joe DiMaggio. It was the 30th time he has hit two home runs in one game. He hit three home runs in a game back in 2010 against the Padres while he was a Washington National.

Hopefully Dunn can continue hitting well all year long and maybe be the Comeback Player of the Year. He was such a great hitter for so long and I hope he puts his awful 2011 season in the rear view mirror and gets back to being one of the best hitters in the league like he was for a decade.

I wish nothing but the best for Adam Dunn. That being said............. he became lazy and lacks the desire to be a true power hitting legend in my opinion.

mth123
04-21-2012, 04:33 AM
Dunner went 3-for-4 with a double, 2 HR, and 5 RBI tonight. Now OPSing .940 and is on pace for 37 homers. I'd love to see him keep those numbers up. Dunn is one of my favorite players ever and was one of the most underrated hitters in baseball for quite a while.

:thumbup:

WMR
04-21-2012, 04:41 AM
I wish nothing but the best for Adam Dunn. That being said............. he became lazy and lacks the desire to be a true power hitting legend in my opinion.

At what point do you think he actually "became" lazy?

Sea Ray
04-21-2012, 08:04 AM
LOL, thanks for the quote, Sea Ray. I said that about two years ago... after his historically poor season last year, Dunn is now about 130 home runs from 500. When that post was made, even the most conservative of estimates would have had Dunn easily eclipsing 500 with a final tally in the ballpark of 550 assuming normal career progression for a player of his build.

It's pretty funny how you use Dunn's historically bad drop-off as some sort of "gotcha" towards those who appreciated the guy while he was a Red. No one, even big, hulking guys like Dunn, experiences the sort of drop off from one season to the next without some sort of extenuating circumstance factoring in somewhere. Maybe Dunn has gotten it squared away?

I'll be cheering for the guy. He was the best player on the Reds for a long time.

The title of this thread says it all. If he's not totally washed up, then he could still turn it back into gear and reach those lofty goals. Has his play since you made that prediction changed your opinion? If so let's hear it

Sea Ray
04-21-2012, 08:07 AM
At what point do you think he actually "became" lazy?

When he went from 240 lbs to 285. If I see him get down to 250 I'll be a little more confident that he's turned things around

jojo
04-21-2012, 08:27 AM
Dunn went the opposite way on his double last night. His first homer was a blooper but even Ichiro couldn't have prevented the second one....

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?c_id=mlb&content_id=20794109&query=game_pk%3D317927

Sea Ray
04-21-2012, 08:34 AM
Get 'em, Sea Ray.



I'm not really into youtubes so I doubt I'll watch it. Does it have anything to do with Adam Dunn?

WMR
04-21-2012, 08:48 AM
I'm not really into youtubes so I doubt I'll watch it. Does it have anything to do with Adam Dunn?

:(

OMG!

It's right up your alley. :(

Sea Ray
04-21-2012, 09:02 AM
It's right up your alley.

I'll take that as a no. My next question for you and the MODs, what is this doing in the Adam Dunn thread?

Sea Ray
04-21-2012, 09:05 AM
Get 'em, Sea Ray.



Why don't you want to discuss your past Adam Dunn predictions?

WMR
04-21-2012, 09:07 AM
nm

WMR
04-21-2012, 09:09 AM
Why don't you want to discuss your past Adam Dunn predictions?

I'm completely willing to discuss my Adam Dunn predictions.

Sea Ray
04-21-2012, 09:14 AM
I'm completely willing to discuss my Adam Dunn predictions.

Then why not do that rather than post baiting, unrelating youtube videos?

Do you stand behind your AD predictions or have they changed?

hebroncougar
04-21-2012, 10:38 AM
Adam Dunn now has 368 career home runs and is #72 on the all-time list between Hall of Famers Ralph Kiner and Joe DiMaggio. It was the 30th time he has hit two home runs in one game. He hit three home runs in a game back in 2010 against the Padres while he was a Washington National.

Hopefully Dunn can continue hitting well all year long and maybe be the Comeback Player of the Year. He was such a great hitter for so long and I hope he puts his awful 2011 season in the rear view mirror and gets back to being one of the best hitters in the league like he was for a decade.

I'll second that. I hope he has a great turnaround season. He was a very productive career as a Red, and I wish him nothing but the best.

Sea Ray
04-21-2012, 11:45 AM
He gets my vote for the Reds Hall of Fame. Anybody disagree with me?

mth123
04-21-2012, 11:58 AM
He gets my vote for the Reds Hall of Fame. Anybody disagree with me?

I think he's a no brainer for the Red's Hall.

Can't wait to hear Marty present him with his plaque.

dougdirt
04-21-2012, 12:27 PM
I think he's a no brainer for the Red's Hall.

Can't wait to hear Marty present him with his plaque.

Only if Marty doesn't have his shirt on.

Razor Shines
04-22-2012, 01:21 AM
I think it says a lot about Dunn's leadership, clubhouse presence and other intangibles that he was able to guide Humber to that perfect game today.

That kind of stuff just can't be quantified.

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jojo
04-22-2012, 08:10 AM
I think it says a lot about Dunn's leadership, clubhouse presence and other intangibles that he was able to guide Humber to that perfect game today.

That kind of stuff just can't be quantified.

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It was certainly helpful that Dunn was DHing.

Redhook
04-22-2012, 09:57 AM
I think it says a lot about Dunn's leadership, clubhouse presence and other intangibles that he was able to guide Humber to that perfect game today.

That kind of stuff just can't be quantified.

I couldn't agree more. Unselfishly playing DH so others can succeed is the sign of a true clubhouse leader. Just think how many perfect games the Reds would've had during his tenure if he was allowed to sacrifice his services, LF, for the good of the team?

Chip R
04-22-2012, 11:47 AM
I couldn't agree more. Unselfishly playing DH so others can succeed is the sign of a true clubhouse leader. Just think how many perfect games the Reds would've had during his tenure if he was allowed to sacrifice his services, LF, for the good of the team?

Indeed. Or if he redid his contract. ;)

cumberlandreds
04-23-2012, 02:16 PM
He gets my vote for the Reds Hall of Fame. Anybody disagree with me?

Anyone with so few sacrifice flies should never be in any HOF.

Signed,

Marty Brennaman



Yes, Dunn should be in it someday. Along with his recliner too.

smith288
04-23-2012, 11:25 PM
HR tonight 1-2. HOT STREAK!