PDA

View Full Version : Should Wood go down when Homer returns?



batsfan
06-15-2011, 03:44 PM
Homer probably does not have more then 1 or 2 rehab starts left until the Reds bring him back. While it is possible to bring a reliever down to make room, I think Travis Wood could use some time in the minors to get back to the way he was last season. Cueto has been lights out, Arroyo is not going anywhere, Volquez seems to have put it together, and Leake has been excellent since his return. None of those guys or Bailey deserve to be put in the bullpen or sent down (unless Volquez starts to struggle again), so right now Wood seems like the best option to me.

Benihana
06-15-2011, 03:45 PM
Yes, Wood should go down. He needs work.

membengal
06-15-2011, 03:47 PM
Wood is the odd man out this time around the merry-go-round. Can't send leake the way he is pitching.

Brutus
06-15-2011, 03:49 PM
It depends on Volquez. He pitched better against the Cubs and Giants, but I'd still like to see the consistency and doing it against better offenses before I'll be convinced he's going to be in any better shape. I still trust Wood slightly more than Volquez at this point in time, but I also agree Wood could probably benefit from some confidence work.

signalhome
06-15-2011, 03:57 PM
It depends on Volquez. He pitched better against the Cubs and Giants, but I'd still like to see the consistency and doing it against better offenses before I'll be convinced he's going to be in any better shape. I still trust Wood slightly more than Volquez at this point in time, but I also agree Wood could probably benefit from some confidence work.

The Cubs walk less than anyone in the majors, and the Giants aren't much better, coming in at 24th overall. Volquez certainly deserves credit for pitching well, but it did come at the expense of two of the most impatient teams in all of baseball, which helps minimize Volquez's biggest weakness as a pitcher (his control, obviously). Not sure if he'd have the same success against a patient team, like the Cardinals, owners of a 9.3% BB%. Hopefully, though, those two games are just the beginning of a great rest-of-the-year for Volquez.

I think Wood's the odd man out right now, though. Maybe that changes over the next week or so, but it certainly appears that way right now.

757690
06-15-2011, 03:58 PM
I thought the Reds needed starting pitching? Who should go down when the Reds trade for Livan Hernandez? ;)

I(heart)Freel
06-15-2011, 04:14 PM
The Cubs walk less than anyone in the majors, and the Giants aren't much better, coming in at 24th overall. Volquez certainly deserves credit for pitching well, but it did come at the expense of two of the most impatient teams in all of baseball, which helps minimize Volquez's biggest weakness as a pitcher (his control, obviously). Not sure if he'd have the same success against a patient team, like the Cardinals, owners of a 9.3% BB%. Hopefully, though, those two games are just the beginning of a great rest-of-the-year for Volquez.

I think Wood's the odd man out right now, though. Maybe that changes over the next week or so, but it certainly appears that way right now.

Great stats/insight. Thanks!

fearofpopvol1
06-15-2011, 04:17 PM
I'd send Volquez down, but that's just me.

bucksfan2
06-15-2011, 04:25 PM
I like Wood. He may be my favorite Red. I thought that after last season he would be the Reds best starter coming into this year. Wood just seems a little off this season and I don't know exactly what it is. I do think its tough to face the same club twice in the span of two weeks, especially when he was roughed up the first time he faced them. I think that some time in AAA may help him focus more on throwing strikes and getting back to what made him successful.

As for Volquez my feelings are pretty much clear cut. I am not big fan of him and am not back on the bandwagon after two decent starts against the Cubs and anemic Giants. I agree with Brutus in that I have more faith in Wood than Volquez, but Wood sure isn't making it easy.

Ghosts of 1990
06-15-2011, 04:34 PM
I'd rather see Homer than anyone aside from Cueto at this point.

NJReds
06-15-2011, 04:35 PM
I posted this in the gamethread, but it's worth bringing up here.

At what point does the Reds coaching staff bear some responsibility for these pitchers not being able to find the zone.

The Reds are sending guys to the minors (Volquez, Leake, Chapman) to work things out with the minor league coaches. If Wood goes that's 3/5 of the rotation and a key member of the bullpen that aren't getting the coaching assistance that they need with the big club.

medford
06-15-2011, 05:42 PM
I posted this in the gamethread, but it's worth bringing up here.

At what point does the Reds coaching staff bear some responsibility for these pitchers not being able to find the zone.

The Reds are sending guys to the minors (Volquez, Leake, Chapman) to work things out with the minor league coaches. If Wood goes that's 3/5 of the rotation and a key member of the bullpen that aren't getting the coaching assistance that they need with the big club.

I don't think its quite as much they're sending them down to "work with the minor league coaches" as they're sending them down to work thru their issues "where the results don't ultimately matter"

Its not a matter of Price not being effective, rather that they want them to work in ball games where if they get beat up thru 3 innings, they send them back out there for the 4th to continue their work. They can't do that in the majors.

The Voice of IH
06-15-2011, 06:04 PM
Send Wood down but have a close eye on Volquez.

kaldaniels
06-15-2011, 06:32 PM
Wood is the odd man out right now. Volquez is still on thin ice though. Leake has earned his way back.

reds44
06-15-2011, 06:38 PM
Wood is the odd man out right now. Volquez is still on thin ice though. Leake has earned his way back.
Yep. This.

mbgrayson
06-15-2011, 06:40 PM
Today Wood went 6 innings, allowing only 1 earned run, albeit with 5 hits and 5 BBs. In San Francisco, he went 8 innings and only allowed 2 earned runs, but gave up 11 hits and 3 BBs.

So over his last two starts, both of which were 'quality starts', he allowed 24 baserunners in 14 innings, for a 1.71 WHIP. This means, to me, that he was very lucky to only give up 3 earned runs.

Still, it will be a bit rough to send him to AAA after two superficially good outings. A lot may depend on Homer's outing in Louisville tonight.

RedsManRick
06-15-2011, 06:45 PM
Thought this might help the conversation
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/d23fc8dc47.jpg

If we're judging solely on 2011 performance and given that Arroyo isn't going anywhere, Volquez is the guy. But since he's already had his turn in time out, Wood is the only logical choice left.

I know things have changed in the last week or so, but for all those who talk about how much our SP has been a problem this year, we're looking at a very similar overall underlying performance as a group.

WVRedsFan
06-16-2011, 01:25 AM
Do I dare say it? Ok, he's young and learning. He will be and is the future of this rotation. Well, one piece of the puzzle. Leake is in that same category. IMHO, Volquez will come and go as will many others. Arroyo will, as age catches up with him, fade away, but Leake and Wood will still be pitching somewhere and doing at least fairly well.

mth123
06-16-2011, 07:02 AM
Lets see Bailey go 6 a couple of times without his shoulder hurting. The Reds may need to make a temporary move (and Wood is probably the guy), but I'm skeptical of Bailey lasting. Too much smoke coming out of that shoulder for there not to be a fire burning in there some place that just hasn't been identified yet.

GoReds
06-16-2011, 07:07 AM
I don't know if I send any of the starters down, at the moment. Move one of the pitchers to the bullpen and let Bailey get a couple of starts under his belt. If he seems to recover, then a corresponding move can be made.

I cringe everytime Arredondo comes into a game. I know he's going to walk at least one guy and give up at least one hit. Send him down to work on control and let's see where we are at the end of the month.

Kc61
06-16-2011, 07:23 AM
I don't know if I send any of the starters down, at the moment. Move one of the pitchers to the bullpen and let Bailey get a couple of starts under his belt. If he seems to recover, then a corresponding move can be made.

I cringe everytime Arredondo comes into a game. I know he's going to walk at least one guy and give up at least one hit. Send him down to work on control and let's see where we are at the end of the month.

Agree.

At this point, I wouldn't send any of the starters to the minor leagues. Wood has been acceptable lately and I see no point in sending him to AAA.

I don't think Homer is about to return and when he does simply put one of the starters in the bullpen for awhile. Maybe Homer himself. It might help his injury situation to pitch fewer innings for awhile.

Griffey012
06-16-2011, 07:37 AM
If Wood has dreads coming out of the back of his hat that was on his head slightly crooked and pitched with a large chain would this conversation be of a much more definitive tune? So far this season Wood and EV seem to both have trouble walking the world at times and nibbling at other times. EV gets labeled as immature and lazy due to his appearance while Wood does not. In reality I haven't heard anything bad in that department about either pitcher.

It seems to me it is an easy yes at this point in time. Because, like with EV, a quick trip to get it sorted out can have a much more positive impact on the overall product than battling things out in the rotation.

Wood has been just 1 or 2 big hits away from disaster in his last 2 starts to go along with a less than stellar season so far. I see him getting 2 or 3 starts in AAA then coming back and looking like the Wood we all expect to see, just like with Leake.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-16-2011, 07:38 AM
Thought this might help the conversation


Great chart, Rick. Thanks.

chicoruiz
06-16-2011, 08:03 AM
Actually, what I'd like to see happen is for Arroyo, who's been battling a number of health issues all year, to take a couple of weeks on the DL so he'd be rested down the stretch, but ain't no way that's gonna happen.

Will M
06-16-2011, 11:26 PM
FYI - Homer gave up 11 hits in 4+ innings in AAA tonight.

WebScorpion
06-17-2011, 10:35 AM
Actually, what I'd like to see happen is for Arroyo, who's been battling a number of health issues all year, to take a couple of weeks on the DL so he'd be rested down the stretch, but ain't no way that's gonna happen.This is actually not a bad idea. Mono is one of those things that can hang around for a very, very long time if you don't give your body plenty of rest. It actually takes longer to go away the more active you remain. I wonder if he's still having lingering effects... This is where the medical staff earns its paycheck, because you know Arroyo is not going to admit that he's even slightly hampered. If he's still slowed, I hope they speak up.

fearofpopvol1
06-18-2011, 08:33 PM
I'd send Volquez down, but that's just me.

I'll stick with this. Wood is simply pitching better than Volquez.

Redsfan320
06-18-2011, 08:53 PM
After tonight, I say Volquez. I was thinking Wood before tonight, but Volqy will be on very thin ice with me for a long time after his start to this year.

320

cinreds21
06-18-2011, 10:57 PM
I would like to trade Volquez to New York for Brackman. Then move Brackman to the bullpen. That'll get rid of Volquez, give the Yankees some pitching depth, and it would give the Reds a hometown kid. Also it would free up number 36, Mes' number. Just saying.

cinreds21
06-18-2011, 11:05 PM
Oops, wrong thread. My bad.

GAC
06-19-2011, 07:51 AM
Yes, Wood should go down. He needs work.

There's a punchline there somewhere, but I ain't gonna submit it! :mooner:

Blitz Dorsey
06-19-2011, 12:37 PM
If you're going strictly off production thus far this season, Volquez should be the one to be sent down again. Course, he's their "golden boy" because no one wants to admit getting fleeced in the Hamilton trade (even though that wasn't Walt's trade) so they won't send Volquez down unless he has a complete meltdown again.

Hopefully Wood can start pitching up to his potential and make this a real difficult decision for the front office. He needs to step his game up. He's better than what's he's shown most of this year. Far too inconsistent. If Wood just pitches his game and keeps attacking, he'll be fine. When he starts to nibble is when he gets in trouble.

reds44
06-19-2011, 12:40 PM
Honestly Volquez and Wood should both go down. Watching Volquez pitch is liking watching another guy with your girlfriend. Long and painful.

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 01:26 PM
Honestly Volquez and Wood should both go down. Watching Volquez pitch is liking watching another guy with your girlfriend. Long and painful.

That's what she said?

kaldaniels
06-19-2011, 05:30 PM
If you're going strictly off production thus far this season, Volquez should be the one to be sent down again. Course, he's their "golden boy" because no one wants to admit getting fleeced in the Hamilton trade (even though that wasn't Walt's trade) so they won't send Volquez down unless he has a complete meltdown again.

Hopefully Wood can start pitching up to his potential and make this a real difficult decision for the front office. He needs to step his game up. He's better than what's he's shown most of this year. Far too inconsistent. If Wood just pitches his game and keeps attacking, he'll be fine. When he starts to nibble is when he gets in trouble.

I wouldn't chalk it up to the "golden boy" excuse if Wood goes down.

Wood has a 5.30 ERA in June, right at 2 WHIP.

Volquez has been better than that by 1.80 ERA, and has given up a tick short of 1.5 WHIP.

Brutus
06-19-2011, 05:50 PM
I wouldn't chalk it up to the "golden boy" excuse if Wood goes down.

Wood has a 5.30 ERA in June, right at 2 WHIP.

Volquez has been better than that by 1.80 ERA, and has given up a tick short of 1.5 WHIP.

Many of the fielding-independent metrics give an advantage to Wood, however. Not all of them, mind you (as xFIP is in Volquez' favor), but the command of Volquez still scares people mightily.

nate
06-19-2011, 05:55 PM
Wood career (189 IP)
K/9: 6.90
BB/9: 2.81
HR/9: 0.90

EV's last three seasons (181.1 IP)
K/9: 9.2
BB/9: 5.6
HR/9: 1.1

mth123
06-19-2011, 06:47 PM
1. Send Wood down and activate Bailey.
2. Trade Volquez, Alonso and some other stuff for a better starter.
3. Bring Wood back when Bailey goes back on the DL.
4. Leave Chapman in AAA and stretch him out as the next option.

Will M
06-19-2011, 07:26 PM
1. Send Wood down and activate Bailey.
2. Trade Volquez, Alonso and some other stuff for a better starter.
3. Bring Wood back when Bailey goes back on the DL.
4. Leave Chapman in AAA and stretch him out as the next option.

i like this plan.

Edd Roush
06-20-2011, 11:10 AM
I would like to trade Volquez to New York for Brackman. Then move Brackman to the bullpen. That'll get rid of Volquez, give the Yankees some pitching depth, and it would give the Reds a hometown kid. Also it would free up number 36, Mes' number. Just saying.

I have followed Brackman's career closer than most here on this board due to being close with one of his relatives and him attending my high school and I have to say that Brackman simply isn't good return for Volquez.

If you trade Volquez now, you are selling low in the first place. And while Brackman's value is now lower than at any point in his career, it is for a reason. The dude just can't throw strikes. While Brackman had sort of a career resurgence last year in High A (age 24 mind you) with a BB/9 of 1.4 over 12 starts, as soon as he got called up to AA he struggled to find the plate again with 3.3 BB/9 over 14 starts.

This year, Brackman is walking 6.9 batters per nine innings. That is atrocious. Add on top of that, he has never struck out more than 9 guys per 9 innings at any level and I just don't know if he will ever translate his stuff into results. If the Yankees wanted catching depth and would trade us Brackman for Hernandez, I would be down, but I think if Brackman was traded here he would be behind all of the six major league starters and Maloney and Lecure on the depth chart.

He just hasn't ever produced. I am still cheering for him, but no way I trade Volquez for him.

kaldaniels
06-20-2011, 12:29 PM
Many of the fielding-independent metrics give an advantage to Wood, however. Not all of them, mind you (as xFIP is in Volquez' favor), but the command of Volquez still scares people mightily.

Is there debate to be had? Sure. But saying Volquez stays because he is the golden boy is a lazy argument.

bucksfan2
06-20-2011, 12:47 PM
Volquez is averaging less than 5 innings a start this season. If you take out his 0 inning start against the Cards he is up to 5 1/3. He is taxing the pen and has largely been ineffective when he takes the mound. The control issues are a huge concern for me and there aren't any signs of improvement.

I have to admit I am a bit Travis Wood fan. I loved watching him pitch last season and hitched my ride to his bandwagon. This season has been a disappointment for Wood. His control numbers have been off leading to higher walk totals and fewer strikeouts. IMO he is another guy where command will play a large role in his effectiveness. If I were a betting man I would bet that Wood regains his command before Volquez ever develops his.

If it were my decision to make I would send Volquez packing. I would send him to the minors and look at a trade. I don't think he will ever regain enough control to be anything more than a back of the rotation starter. Let someone else try to harness his upside, something the Reds haven't been able to effectively do. However I think its time to fish or cut bait with Volquez. I think the Reds give him about 5 more starts and then make a decision. It appears as if Wood is destined to spend some time in AAA while Volquez gets one more chance.

mbgrayson
06-20-2011, 02:36 PM
FYI - Homer gave up 11 hits in 4+ innings in AAA tonight.


Bailey has only made two starts in June for the Bats:

6/11/11: 3 IP, 4 hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks, and 3 earned runs.
6/16/11: 4.1 IP, 11 hits, 0 BBs, 2Ks, and 3 earned runs.

Nobody is going to be taken out of the roatation based on the Reds wanting to get those numbers up to Cincinnati....

Dontrelle Willis is actually pitching better than Bailey. His three June starts look like this:

6/6/11: 4.2 IP, 3 hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks, and 0 eraned runs.
6/12/11: 6.1 IP, 5 hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks, and 3 earned runs.
6/19/11: 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks, and 1 earned run.

So the better question might end up being who goes out of the rotation to give Dontrelle a chance?

Brutus
06-20-2011, 02:46 PM
Is there debate to be had? Sure. But saying Volquez stays because he is the golden boy is a lazy argument.

Agreed, but I wasn't really endorsing the golden boy statement, just responding to your comparison of the two.

Reds Freak
06-20-2011, 03:16 PM
Wood starting today in place of Cueto FWIW.

dougdirt
06-20-2011, 03:47 PM
Bailey has only made two starts in June for the Bats:

6/11/11: 3 IP, 4 hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks, and 3 earned runs.
6/16/11: 4.1 IP, 11 hits, 0 BBs, 2Ks, and 3 earned runs.

Nobody is going to be taken out of the roatation based on the Reds wanting to get those numbers up to Cincinnati....

Dontrelle Willis is actually pitching better than Bailey. His three June starts look like this:

6/6/11: 4.2 IP, 3 hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks, and 0 eraned runs.
6/12/11: 6.1 IP, 5 hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks, and 3 earned runs.
6/19/11: 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks, and 1 earned run.

So the better question might end up being who goes out of the rotation to give Dontrelle a chance?

Take the numbers MLB rehabbers put up in the minors with a grain of salt. They are down there to throw X number of pitches and work on something that may not be quite working right. They aren't there to get wins. They are there to get work in.

reds44
06-20-2011, 03:51 PM
Take the numbers MLB rehabbers put up in the minors with a grain of salt. They are down there to throw X number of pitches and work on something that may not be quite working right. They aren't there to get wins. They are there to get work in.
Leake was awful when he got sent to AAA earlier this year (think his ERA down there was around 9) as well, and look how well he is pitching now.

OnBaseMachine
06-20-2011, 03:54 PM
Leake was awful when he got sent to AAA earlier this year (think his ERA down there was around 9) as well, and look how well he is pitching now.

Not to mention Johnny Cueto had a 6.28 ERA in four rehab starts before rejoining the Reds and posting a sparkling 1.68 ERA in 53.2 innings so far.

reds44
06-20-2011, 07:22 PM
Is this even a question anymore?

kbrake
06-20-2011, 07:30 PM
Hope Homer is ready to return for the 2nd inning tonight.

Rojo
06-20-2011, 07:34 PM
Is this even a question anymore?

Not for me. I see some glimmer of hope, however small, in Volquez. Not seeing anything in Wood.

RedsManRick
06-20-2011, 07:45 PM
Wood is getting just 6.8% swinging strikes. That's not good (about the 25th percentile of major league starters), but it certainly isn't good. When you don't miss bats, you have to stay on the edges of the zone. If you get over the middle of the zone or the ump isn't giving you the edges, you're in for a long night.

Edd Roush
06-20-2011, 08:02 PM
I have followed Brackman's career closer than most here on this board due to being close with one of his relatives and him attending my high school and I have to say that Brackman simply isn't good return for Volquez.

If you trade Volquez now, you are selling low in the first place. And while Brackman's value is now lower than at any point in his career, it is for a reason. The dude just can't throw strikes. While Brackman had sort of a career resurgence last year in High A (age 24 mind you) with a BB/9 of 1.4 over 12 starts, as soon as he got called up to AA he struggled to find the plate again with 3.3 BB/9 over 14 starts.

This year, Brackman is walking 6.9 batters per nine innings. That is atrocious. Add on top of that, he has never struck out more than 9 guys per 9 innings at any level and I just don't know if he will ever translate his stuff into results. If the Yankees wanted catching depth and would trade us Brackman for Hernandez, I would be down, but I think if Brackman was traded here he would be behind all of the six major league starters and Maloney and Lecure on the depth chart.

He just hasn't ever produced. I am still cheering for him, but no way I trade Volquez for him.

Just to add a little more information to this post, it looks like Drew was moved to the bullpen on June 16 and has pitched much better, but I am still not trading Volquez for a AAA reliever.

CTA513
06-20-2011, 10:56 PM
Is this even a question anymore?

Yes since the Reds have to decide if its going to be either Wood, Volquez or both.

fearofpopvol1
06-20-2011, 11:20 PM
Is this even a question anymore?

Volquez's start on Saturday:

5IP, 7H, 4ER, 2BB, 8K, 1HR

Wood's start today:

7IP, 8H, 4ER, 1BB, 6K, 0HR

Let's not forget that Wood faced the Yankees and Volquez faced the Blue Jays.

Wood > Volquez

kaldaniels
06-21-2011, 12:14 AM
Volquez's start on Saturday:

5IP, 7H, 4ER, 2BB, 8K, 1HR

Wood's start today:

7IP, 8H, 4ER, 1BB, 6K, 0HR

Let's not forget that Wood faced the Yankees and Volquez faced the Blue Jays.

Wood > Volquez

I was not aware it was a one start Battle Royale.

reds44
06-21-2011, 12:27 AM
I'd send them both down.

fearofpopvol1
06-21-2011, 12:31 AM
I was not aware it was a one start Battle Royale.

Considering that both have pitched similarly...all I'm saying is that isn't all that clear who goes down. I'd send Volquez down though personally.

cinreds21
06-21-2011, 02:40 AM
I have followed Brackman's career closer than most here on this board due to being close with one of his relatives and him attending my high school and I have to say that Brackman simply isn't good return for Volquez.

If you trade Volquez now, you are selling low in the first place. And while Brackman's value is now lower than at any point in his career, it is for a reason. The dude just can't throw strikes. While Brackman had sort of a career resurgence last year in High A (age 24 mind you) with a BB/9 of 1.4 over 12 starts, as soon as he got called up to AA he struggled to find the plate again with 3.3 BB/9 over 14 starts.

This year, Brackman is walking 6.9 batters per nine innings. That is atrocious. Add on top of that, he has never struck out more than 9 guys per 9 innings at any level and I just don't know if he will ever translate his stuff into results. If the Yankees wanted catching depth and would trade us Brackman for Hernandez, I would be down, but I think if Brackman was traded here he would be behind all of the six major league starters and Maloney and Lecure on the depth chart.

He just hasn't ever produced. I am still cheering for him, but no way I trade Volquez for him.

Good stuff. I've followed him a tiny bit over the years (and even did an interview with him) and his numbers last year made me think he was turning it around, but this year, like you said, has been just brutal. Now thinking it over, giving Volquez up just for a horrible Brackman would be stupid. If Brackman was doing a lot better, than it would probably make sense. But since that's not the case, you're right.