PDA

View Full Version : Bailey, Cueto, Wood arrived, now what?



traderumor
06-15-2011, 10:44 PM
I'm curious because it has been awhile since I've heard anyone really excited about any of our starting pitching prospects. So, I took a peak at the minors, and :eek:

It did look like we have some folks performing at Dayton, but it appears we have a leak in the pipeline. Carolina is a disaster and Louisville is nothing but injury filler that we've already been there and done that with.

Of course, at this stage, the above named are young and hopefully give us several years of production, but I am a little concerned about our starting pitching depth.

So, what's the deal?

Superdude
06-15-2011, 10:57 PM
The system's probably not gonna produce much in terms of starting pitching for a little while, but there's a nice crop at Bakersfield and below. Corcino's looking like a stud in the making, and behind him are guys like Sulbaran, Smith, Guillon, hopefully Lotzkar, and now Stephenson who have a lot of potential but are a few years away.

So even though it'd be great to have a bunch of future aces knocking down the door in AAA, the major league rotation is set for a while and there's no shortage of talent to potentially fill those shoes when the time comes.

corkedbat
06-15-2011, 11:26 PM
We've still got pretty good depth in decent caliber starters in Arroyo, Cueto, Wood, Bailey, Volquez, Leake and (maybe nest year) Chapman and several AAAA types that can come up for an emergency star or two.

After that though, there is precious little above Dayton. There are several possible bullpen arms and Sulbaran and Ravin at Baekrsfiled could catch fire (but both are very long shots.

At Dayton, Corcino may be the best starting prospect on the farm right now and Josh Smith is rising. Tuttle and Renenken show promise while Lotzkar might be at the top of the heal ifhe could stay healthy - his delivery may prevent that though. It will be interest to see what their sophmore season hold for Guilon, Johnson. Mugarian and Correa - (too bad about Cisco missing the season). With Stepehnson being a high schooler it will probably two years before we see what we really have and another two before we see him anywhere near Cincy.

Any improvenemts to the rotation in the next two seasons (at the very least) will probably have to come from the "top seven" themselves or outside the organization. That's the main reason I like the idea of dealing a catcher to the Rays for Alex Cobb. I'd like to see the club add at least one upper minors decent starting prospect in the next year as well as an ace if possible.

dougdirt
06-15-2011, 11:30 PM
The legit top end arms in the system are: Corcino, Guillon and Stephenson (assuming he signs). I guess some would add Lotzkar to the list, but I simply don't think he will ever be healthy long enough to remain a starter at the big league level. Unfortunately, Guillon is the oldest and most advanced of the group and he is all of 20 and in Low A, at least 2 full seasons away if everything goes just right for him.

The DARK
06-15-2011, 11:43 PM
This is why Walt didn't want to trade starting pitching and resigned Arroyo; we've got nobody coming after those 3 until the next wave in 2013 or so (Corcino, Gullion, and Stephenson), so we'll have to make do with what we have. As painful as it may eventually be to have to keep a guy like Wood or Leake in the minors when he deserves to start, it's better than having a guy undergo Tommy John and relying on guys like Reineke or whatever scraps we can find for a whole season. We should consider swapping blocked guys like Grandal and Alonso for mid-level starting pitching prospects, or looking to sign a more advanced prospect in the international market.

Superdude
06-15-2011, 11:57 PM
There are several possible bullpen arms and Sulbaran and Ravin at Baekrsfiled could catch fire (but both are very long shots.

I wouldn't count Sulbaran out. He's young, in a tough league, and pitching much better than his ERA would suggest just from glancing at his peripherals. Haven't heard much about his stuff in a while, but that K rate is certainly promising.

corkedbat
06-16-2011, 02:08 AM
I wouldn't count Sulbaran out. He's young, in a tough league, and pitching much better than his ERA would suggest just from glancing at his peripherals. Haven't heard much about his stuff in a while, but that K rate is certainly promising.

Yeah, I'm hopeful - that's the main reason I included him.

mth123
06-16-2011, 06:13 AM
The hole is a bit of an illusion. Leake would be the guy in the high minors who would be next in line if he hadn't gone straight to the big leagues. I'm guessing Chapman will be the next starter to "arrive' (hopefully by starting for AAA for the rest of the season and being back to ready by next spring). Those two jumping ahead in line are the reason the upper minors looks so bare. Its not because there isn't a next wave after Bailey, Cueto and Wood, its because that next wave is already in the big leagues.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-16-2011, 10:53 AM
I wouldn't count Sulbaran out. He's young, in a tough league, and pitching much better than his ERA would suggest just from glancing at his peripherals. Haven't heard much about his stuff in a while, but that K rate is certainly promising.

Agree. I'm not sure why this kid is not considered more a prospect. Just turned 21 and holding his own in a tough pitcher's league.

BA dropped him from the Reds top 30 (#25 in '10, #20 in '09), but I think he's having a nice bounce back season and will jump back in next year.

I'd still like to see the walks come down (67-27 K/BB in 61 IP), but the K numbers look nice.

I see Correa was moved to the 'restricted' list. I think he's a prospect too and I had high hopes for him. What's the deal there?

Reds Freak
06-16-2011, 11:06 AM
A guy that I've always had an eye on but don't know anything about other than the box scores that I read is Scott Carroll. Does he have any hope of contributing to the big league club at any point?

Benihana
06-16-2011, 11:08 AM
mth123 did a good job of explaining why the pitching situation is what it is, but what is more interesting to me is that this phenomenon is starting to exist not just for the pitching, but almost systemwide. The Reds are slowly turning into a bifurcated system with a boatload of talent in AAA and MLB that should help the team compete over the next 3-4 years, a boatload of talent that probably won't arrive until 2014 or 2015, and a considerable gap of talent/impact players in between.

Consider the following players that are major league ready/experienced and should help to form a core (or be used to acquire pieces to a core) over the next 3-4 years:

The Bats
1. Joey Votto
2. Jay Bruce
3. Drew Stubbs
4. Ryan Hanigan
5. Chris Heisey

The Arms
6. Johnny Cueto
7. Homer Bailey
8. Mike Leake
9. Travis Wood
10. Aroldis Chapman
11. Edinson Volquez
12. Logan Ondrusek
13. Nick Masset

The Prospects
14. Devin Mesoraco
15. Yonder Alonso
16. Dave Sappelt
17. Zack Cozart
18. Todd Frazier
19. Juan Francisco

There are some that could arguably added but their future contribution is not clear enough above fringe (Janish, Bray, Arredondo) and some that are too old or not signed for long enough (Arroyo, Rolen, Phillips?) However everyone listed above is ready to contribute at the big league level for the next few years at least.

Then there is a gap, with only a few players that appear to have much promise scheduled to arrive between 2012 and 2014: Grandal, LaMarre, Puckett, Boxberger, Joseph, and perhaps new draftee Ryan Wright could eventually fall into this category, but other than Grandal and maybe Boxberger none of them project to be true impact players at the big league level.

Finally, we have the next wave of prospects that are at least 3-4 years off, but who are quietly beginning to form the next big cluster of organizational talent that hasn't been seen since the prospect days of Votto-Bruce-Bailey-Cueto:

The Bats
1. Billy Hamilton
2. Yorman Rodriguez
3. Juan Duran
4. Ronald Torreyes
5. Junior Arias
6. Tucker Barnhart
7. Kyle Waldrop
8. Gabriel Rosa

The Arms
9. Daniel Corcino
10. Robert Stephenson
11. Ismael Guillon
12. Kyle Lotzkar
13. Josh Smith
14. JC Sulbaran
15. Drew Cisco
16. Amir Garrett if he signs

I guess another way of observing this is the lack of talent in Carolina and Bakersfield, especially in light of the abundance of talent in Cincinnati/Louisville as well as Dayton/Billings. The bidmodalness of the organization is more of an interesting observation than anything to be overly concerned about, but just thought I'd point it out. In fact, if anything, as a small market team I would rather have my prospects arrive in clusters rather than a steady stream as it provides more of a true window to compete. Using these projections, the Reds should have a considerable window from now until 2013. 2014-2016 appear to be rebuilding years, and if the lower minors prospects reach their potential the latter part of the decade should be interesting. Of course, projecting any of this now seems almost silly, and now I'm rambling, so back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Danny Serafini
06-16-2011, 11:27 AM
Agree. I'm not sure why this kid is not considered more a prospect.

He's in his third year of single A ball and still can't get his ERA under 5. The Ks are nice, but if you give up too many base runners in between them it doesn't matter.

Benihana
06-16-2011, 11:30 AM
He's in his third year of single A ball and still can't get his ERA under 5. The Ks are nice, but if you give up too many base runners in between them it doesn't matter.

I wonder if he would be better as a reliever?

medford
06-16-2011, 12:07 PM
I think its a bit much to expect "star" prospects at every level, every season. Under normal circumstances, or at least expectations at the time of the draft, Mike Leake would be in AA, maybe AAA and we'd be talking about a future young pitching star, along w/ Boxberger from that same draft class. We'd look at Grandal in the same breath and say that the talent wasn't so spread out. Truth is, the Reds "shouldn't" need a ton of high impact prospects beyond what's in AAA over the next couple of seasons. Bruce, Stubbs, Cozart, Leake, Bailey, Chapmann, Mes, Yonder, Sappelt, Heisey, etc.. are all young and all have a chance to have high impacts on the big league club for relatively low costs. Further more, you've got guys like votto & Cueto locked up until the time you should start seeing some of the low A guys start to make their push towards the big league club.

dougdirt
06-16-2011, 02:47 PM
A guy that I've always had an eye on but don't know anything about other than the box scores that I read is Scott Carroll. Does he have any hope of contributing to the big league club at any point?

I think Carroll could have a good career out of the bullpen. His fastball works in the low 90's and touches 95 every now and again as a starter. I would be interested to see where he could sit as a reliever.

traderumor
06-16-2011, 05:49 PM
I think its a bit much to expect "star" prospects at every level, every season. Under normal circumstances, or at least expectations at the time of the draft, Mike Leake would be in AA, maybe AAA and we'd be talking about a future young pitching star, along w/ Boxberger from that same draft class. We'd look at Grandal in the same breath and say that the talent wasn't so spread out. Truth is, the Reds "shouldn't" need a ton of high impact prospects beyond what's in AAA over the next couple of seasons. Bruce, Stubbs, Cozart, Leake, Bailey, Chapmann, Mes, Yonder, Sappelt, Heisey, etc.. are all young and all have a chance to have high impacts on the big league club for relatively low costs. Further more, you've got guys like votto & Cueto locked up until the time you should start seeing some of the low A guys start to make their push towards the big league club.You can never have enough pitching. Maybe there's less high profile starters, or perhaps I'm just a little out of the loop on the minors. But when I'm not hearing anything about an arm even as a somewhat passive observer, it causes me to look into it, and unfortunately, I see some alarming holes that reduce our margin of error or force us to seek expensive options. The more alarming thing to me is that we've really only dealt one arm (Stewart), so we're just looking at a bunch of non-performing minor leaguers from the last 2 or 3 drafts.

bubbachunk
06-16-2011, 06:34 PM
You can never have enough pitching. Maybe there's less high profile starters, or perhaps I'm just a little out of the loop on the minors. But when I'm not hearing anything about an arm even as a somewhat passive observer, it causes me to look into it, and unfortunately, I see some alarming holes that reduce our margin of error or force us to seek expensive options. The more alarming thing to me is that we've really only dealt one arm (Stewart), so we're just looking at a bunch of non-performing minor leaguers from the last 2 or 3 drafts.

Remember you are looking at (considered) one of the better farm systems in baseball :lol:

traderumor
06-16-2011, 09:13 PM
Remember you are looking at (considered) one of the better farm systems in baseball :lol:We do have some very nice top shelf offensive products on simmer, and very young guys are playing key roles in the majors, and those are draft and develop guys like Cueto, Bailey, Ondrusek, Heisey, Leake, Bruce, Stubbs, Janish, and Hanigan. So I think we have a producing farm system that still has some help coming soon.

I just am a little worried about rotation replacements for Arroyo, maybe Volquez, and some cushion for the young rotation arms that might have hit ceiling in the next two years. That is what triggered the research, and the research triggered the concern.

bubbachunk
06-16-2011, 09:19 PM
We do have some very nice top shelf offensive products on simmer, and very young guys are playing key roles in the majors, and those are draft and develop guys like Cueto, Bailey, Ondrusek, Heisey, Leake, Bruce, Stubbs, Janish, and Hanigan. So I think we have a producing farm system that still has some help coming soon.

I just am a little worried about rotation replacements for Arroyo, maybe Volquez, and some cushion for the young rotation arms that might have hit ceiling in the next two years. That is what triggered the research, and the research triggered the concern.

Understandable but I will see where we sit after this season plays out as far as some of the younger guys go before I get worried. You never know when some kid in A ball is going to make a big leap.