PDA

View Full Version : It Will Never Happen...



I(heart)Freel
06-16-2011, 11:16 PM
But would YOU trade Edinson Volquez for Colby Rasmus?

I read the stuff about Rasmus' father talking about how the Cards should trade his son on a message board. (Maybe our St Louis posters can chime in here about this strange situation?) That led to this from Bernie:

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/article_d0860df6-91ea-11e0-8229-001a4bcf6878.html

I agree with him. It would be crazy. And it would certainly never happen between these two division rivals. The question isn't about realism.

It's about... would you make the trade?

Griffey012
06-16-2011, 11:18 PM
without a doubt

LvJ
06-16-2011, 11:20 PM
You know if Volquez was a Cardinal somehow he'd win 15-20 games with a 1.5 ERA for about 5 years. Rasmus would probably OPS in the mid .700's. That's just how it is.

jojo
06-16-2011, 11:54 PM
Yes.

The Voice of IH
06-16-2011, 11:58 PM
I am probably would be for it. I think the Reds need to dump either Volquez or Wood pretty soon, they have a complete overload of starting pitching.

Ghosts of 1990
06-17-2011, 12:50 AM
It's tough because I don't value Edinson but I think Rasmus is a Donkey and we don't need a personality like that in the clubhouse or his daddy making waves. His father should be ashamed of himself

WebScorpion
06-17-2011, 10:36 AM
No, but I'd trade him for Kemp. ;) I think Kemp is waaay better than Rasmus and I don't want to face Volquez under the tutelage of Duncan 3 or 4 times a year for the next 10 years. :eek:

cumberlandreds
06-17-2011, 10:43 AM
No. One reason is that I wouldn't trade with your main rival. If the trade backfires it makes the entire organization look bad.
Rasmus seems like a problem child to me. This just comes from what I have read about him. I think I would stay away from him.

RedsManRick
06-17-2011, 11:15 AM
Absolutely. Rasmus is a stud, Matt Holliday with only slightly worse contact ability. I've never been a Volquez believer and would love to see us cash in him.

Nasty_Boy
06-17-2011, 11:15 AM
Rasmus for Volquie? Sure... But I'd hate to trade an arm like that to a division rival. But Bruce Stubbs Rasmus in the OF would be a great thing for the next 4-5 years.



I am probably would be for it. I think the Reds need to dump either Volquez or Wood pretty soon, they have a complete overload of starting pitching.

I couldn't disagree with this more! Just look at the beginning of the season... Johnny and Homer go down, Volquie, Wood and Bronson were mostly ineffective, and Mike Leake was in the police blotter... Things are starting to shake out just a bit, but I don't see 6 guys as being an overload. Johnny is coming into his own, Bronson and Leake look like solid 3-4's, but Travis is still inconsistent, Homer can't stay healthy, and who knows when Volquie is going to go Steve Blass again. I'm just fine throwing one of them in the pen or in AAA until another move can be made or until they see more consistency from the group.

Roy Tucker
06-17-2011, 11:21 AM
Good Lord, no.

bats come and bats go but live arms that throw gas are precious commoditities. Volquez has his issues but why in the world do we want to give up on him now? Patience, patience, patience.

The Voice of IH
06-17-2011, 01:32 PM
Rasmus for Volquie? Sure... But I'd hate to trade an arm like that to a division rival. But Bruce Stubbs Rasmus in the OF would be a great thing for the next 4-5 years.




I couldn't disagree with this more! Just look at the beginning of the season... Johnny and Homer go down, Volquie, Wood and Bronson were mostly ineffective, and Mike Leake was in the police blotter... Things are starting to shake out just a bit, but I don't see 6 guys as being an overload. Johnny is coming into his own, Bronson and Leake look like solid 3-4's, but Travis is still inconsistent, Homer can't stay healthy, and who knows when Volquie is going to go Steve Blass again. I'm just fine throwing one of them in the pen or in AAA until another move can be made or until they see more consistency from the group.

Leake is not a 3-4 pitcher, he is a future Ace. When you look at the future and see that Chapman is also going to be a starter, you get

1. Arroyo for two years
2. Volquez
3. Leake
4. Cueto
5. Bailey
6. Wood
7. Chapman

Overload.

cumberlandreds
06-17-2011, 01:46 PM
Leake is not a 3-4 pitcher, he is a future Ace. When you look at the future and see that Chapman is also going to be a starter, you get

1. Arroyo for two years
2. Volquez
3. Leake
4. Cueto
5. Bailey
6. Wood
7. Chapman

Overload.

You never ever have an overload on pitching. This year should have told us all that. Cueto and Bailey go down in the spring. Bailey is still struggling to come back. Arroyo had mono and is probably still struggling with that. Chapman has been wild and still don't know if he is going to coral that or not. Volquez has been equally wild and had to go back to the minors. Leake had to go the minors to work things out. Wood hasn't been as effective as last season either. if the Reds had traded a couple of these guys where would they have been? You may have seen a lot of Maloney,Reineke and God knows who else in the rotation for extended times. No you never have enough pitching. Never,ever ever.

Brutus
06-17-2011, 01:47 PM
Good Lord, no.

bats come and bats go but live arms that throw gas are precious commoditities. Volquez has his issues but why in the world do we want to give up on him now? Patience, patience, patience.

How many guys with serious command/control issues do you see turn it around? I'm sure there have been some, but they're probably few and far between.

If I had to put money on it, my guess is Volquez would not likely ever make it out of that "live arm" category. So if the Reds had an opportunity to sell him for a proven bat at a position of relative need, I'd do it.

GOYA
06-17-2011, 01:47 PM
Not a chance. Volquez is still recovering from TJ. Give him time. If he gets back to where I think he will, he will be the answer to one of the Reds' shortcomings.

RedsManRick
06-17-2011, 01:55 PM
Not a chance. Volquez is still recovering from TJ. Give him time. If he gets back to where I think he will, he will be the answer to one of the Reds' shortcomings.

What exactly do you expect him to "get back to"? Hopefully not his shiny 3.21 ERA in 2008. That level of performance was never supported by his underlying skills. A fully recovered Volquez is a guy with an ERA in the high 3's at best who will never pitch a ton of innings because of his high-pitch-count skill set. That's certainly valuable, but we should not confuse Volquez with a top of the rotation guy.

Brutus
06-17-2011, 01:59 PM
Not a chance. Volquez is still recovering from TJ. Give him time. If he gets back to where I think he will, he will be the answer to one of the Reds' shortcomings.

He was walking 4.6 guys per nine innings in 325 Major League innings before Tommy John surgery. I honestly don't get that argument, as it implies that his control issues are a product of surgery recovery.

His strikeout rates this year are actually above his career average. So in reality, what you see is probably what you get with Volquez. I'm not sure his recovery has much to do with it now.

thatcoolguy_22
06-17-2011, 02:07 PM
No. Rasmus has had one very good seasons and 2 average ones. In 2010 his BABIP jumped to .354. While his LF defense will no doubt be stellar, I would rather have less defense and more offense, and preferably someone who isn't a head case. Honestly I don't get all of the love for the guy. I'm still holding out on Yonder becoming somewhat acceptable in LF.

GOYA
06-17-2011, 02:09 PM
Why do you think he had consistently bad early innings and then pitched well afterward? Why is it better now? I think it's because of a stronger arm as a result of the surgery. He needs time to know how to control it. He is showing signs of gaining that control.

Have you seen the Reds starter's ERAs? Any pitcher with an ERA under 4 is someone the Reds shouldn't get rid of.

Nasty_Boy
06-17-2011, 02:14 PM
Leake is not a 3-4 pitcher, he is a future Ace. When you look at the future and see that Chapman is also going to be a starter, you get

1. Arroyo for two years
2. Volquez
3. Leake
4. Cueto
5. Bailey
6. Wood
7. Chapman

Overload.

Leake is a good pitcher, but saying he's a future ace is based on your belief in him as a fan. He's never projected to be an ace and he doesn't have typical ace stuff. No one can say for sure what he'll be, but I don't think you have anything to back your claim.

Chapman has been a mess. He has an amazing arm but we've all witnessed the control problems and I still fear he may end up on the DL more than on the field.

The closest thing this rotation has to a sure thing is Cueto. You're putting all of your eggs in one basket.

RedsManRick
06-17-2011, 02:36 PM
No. Rasmus has had one very good seasons and 2 average ones. In 2010 his BABIP jumped to .354. While his LF defense will no doubt be stellar, I would rather have less defense and more offense, and preferably someone who isn't a head case. Honestly I don't get all of the love for the guy. I'm still holding out on Yonder becoming somewhat acceptable in LF.

Two things to consider:

1) He's 24. It's not like he's reached his offensive peak.
2) I'm not sure I'd label somebody a headcase because he butted heads with Tony LaRussa. I know there's more to it than that, but how much do we really know about the kid?

I think the love comes from him being a 4 win player at age 23 last year and being on pace for another 4 win season this year. That's all-star territory.

What's funny is that Voqluez has exactly 1 good season under his belt (4.2 WAR), one that came 3 years ago and no other even average seasons. And Volquez is pushing 28 with a severe injury in his recent history.

Rasmus may not be the next Mickey Mantle, but let's be real about what Volquez is at this point. If the critique of Rasmus is that he's not established a level of great performance and that his one great season was supported by "luck", then Volquez should be dinged for the same thing. Except Rasmus is younger and healthier.

Tommyjohn25
06-17-2011, 02:38 PM
Nope. Mainly because I personally cannot stand Colby Rasmus.

The Voice of IH
06-17-2011, 02:54 PM
Leake is a good pitcher, but saying he's a future ace is based on your belief in him as a fan. He's never projected to be an ace and he doesn't have typical ace stuff. No one can say for sure what he'll be, but I don't think you have anything to back your claim.

Chapman has been a mess. He has an amazing arm but we've all witnessed the control problems and I still fear he may end up on the DL more than on the field.

The closest thing this rotation has to a sure thing is Cueto. You're putting all of your eggs in one basket.

The Reds pitching has not given up five runs in a single game in the last ten games. The starting pitching has produced 9 quality starts in their last 10 appearances, And have been dominating during this stretch.

What we are witnessing right now is the true Reds pitching. Over the long run the Reds will have one of the top staffs in the majors. If Bailey can keep healthy (he will, just run into some bad luck) the Reds staff will be awesome, and overloaded.

Hoosier Red
06-17-2011, 03:05 PM
Bah! I meant to vote yes, it should be 21 yes 21 no

reds44
06-17-2011, 03:19 PM
Wow I can't believe how close this is. Yes.

Brutus
06-17-2011, 03:42 PM
Why do you think he had consistently bad early innings and then pitched well afterward? Why is it better now? I think it's because of a stronger arm as a result of the surgery. He needs time to know how to control it. He is showing signs of gaining that control.

Have you seen the Reds starter's ERAs? Any pitcher with an ERA under 4 is someone the Reds shouldn't get rid of.

Volquez doesn't have an ERA under 4. It's 5.48 and 4.52 for his career.

I'm really not seeing the signs of gaining the control, to be honest. Even against Chicago and San Francisco his command was very poor. He didn't walk a ton of guys, but he was still getting behind a lot of hitters.

The Voice of IH
06-17-2011, 03:44 PM
Volquez doesn't have an ERA under 4. It's 5.48 and 4.52 for his career.

I'm really not seeing the signs of gaining the control, to be honest. Even against Chicago and San Francisco his command was very poor. He didn't walk a ton of guys, but he was still getting behind a lot of hitters.

But #Winning, something sabermetrics could care less about.

signalhome
06-17-2011, 03:57 PM
No question, yes.

Volquez has had one really good year three years ago, and Rasmus has had one really good year that was probably boosted a bit by an inflated BABIP. However, Volquez is 28 and Rasmus is 24. Also, Rasmus is on pace for another 4.0+ WAR season, and while his ISO isn't close to what it was last year, he has cut down on the strikeouts (32% to 23%) while walking just a tad more, which is always a good thing. Like RedsManRick said, as he's just 24, there's a good chance he still hasn't even reached his peak.

2008 was the only year in which Volquez posted a WAR over 1.0. Assuming Rasmus doesn't fall off a cliff, this will make three straight years of 2.8+, with the last two years being substantially better than 2.8. Rasmus would also be under team control for three more years after this year, and I'm pretty sure the Reds don't have Volquez under control for nearly that long.

mth123
06-17-2011, 04:32 PM
No brainer yes.

Once Rasmus is in hand, the Reds could package several guys like Alonso, Sappelt and Heisey for an upgrade from Volquez. Rasmus is likely already better than any of those would ever be and those guys would bring back a better starter than Volquez will be.

1. Volquez for Rasmus
2. A bunch of blocked kids for a better starter.
3. Call up Cozart and Mesoraco
4. Win World Series

Nasty_Boy
06-17-2011, 04:37 PM
The Reds pitching has not given up five runs in a single game in the last ten games. The starting pitching has produced 9 quality starts in their last 10 appearances, And have been dominating during this stretch.

What we are witnessing right now is the true Reds pitching. Over the long run the Reds will have one of the top staffs in the majors. If Bailey can keep healthy (he will, just run into some bad luck) the Reds staff will be awesome, and overloaded.

I wish I could be as optimistic as you... I hope this is the true Reds pitching we are seeing. But 7 of those 10 games were in pitcher friendly parks against sub par offenses, while the other 3 were against the Cubs. Trust me, I want you to be right but I haven't seen enough to believe it.

mth123
06-17-2011, 04:39 PM
I wish I could be as optimistic as you... I hope this is the true Reds pitching we are seeing. But 7 of those 10 games were in pitcher friendly parks against sub par offenses, while the other 3 were against the Cubs. Trust me, I want you to be right but I haven't seen enough to believe it.

:thumbup:

I(heart)Freel
06-17-2011, 04:40 PM
I kinda knew this was going to be an even heat.

Didn't think it was going to be THIS even!

Good stuff y'all.

GOYA
06-17-2011, 04:46 PM
Volquez doesn't have an ERA under 4. It's 5.48 and 4.52 for his career.

The comment of an under 4 ERA was in response to this:


A fully recovered Volquez is a guy with an ERA in the high 3's at best who will never pitch a ton of innings because of his high-pitch-count skill set. That's certainly valuable, but we should not confuse Volquez with a top of the rotation guy.

The Voice of IH
06-17-2011, 04:52 PM
I wish I could be as optimistic as you... I hope this is the true Reds pitching we are seeing. But 7 of those 10 games were in pitcher friendly parks against sub par offenses, while the other 3 were against the Cubs. Trust me, I want you to be right but I haven't seen enough to believe it.

absolutely fair enough!

RedsManRick
06-17-2011, 06:15 PM
But #Winning, something sabermetrics could care less about.

Funny how people who are so anti-sabermetric love to base their evaluation of pitching talent on a single, insanely convoluted statistic just because it's called a "win".

If the "win" was more accurately called "number times the pitcher pitched at least 5 innings (if he's a starter) and left the game when his team had scored more runs than the pitcher and his defense combined to allow and the lead held up until the end of the game, regardless of how many additional runs were scored & allowed by his teammates after he left", I don't think people would care about it quite so much.

I think I'm going to start judging hitters off primarily how many runs they score because really, that's their job, to score runs. Clearly Drew Stubbs is the Reds best hitter.

(EDIT) Please consider this a rant against the win stat in general; I couldn't tell if you were being serious or sarcastic...

nate
06-17-2011, 09:22 PM
The Reds pitching has not given up five runs in a single game in the last ten games. The starting pitching has produced 9 quality starts in their last 10 appearances, And have been dominating during this stretch.

What we are witnessing right now is the true Reds pitching. Over the long run the Reds will have one of the top staffs in the majors. If Bailey can keep healthy (he will, just run into some bad luck) the Reds staff will be awesome, and overloaded.

That sure would be nice but it's extremely unlikely. Especially when one considers how well they'd have to pitch to accomplish that. It's also based more on "ifs" and "hope" that the last two weeks is more indicative of skill than the previous two months.

It's more likely that, as currently constructed, the Reds have, at best, a below average starting staff.

nate
06-17-2011, 09:23 PM
But #Winning, something sabermetrics could care less about.

This is simply wrong.

edabbs44
06-17-2011, 09:24 PM
I would make this trade 100 times out of 100 and not even think twice.