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Blitz Dorsey
06-17-2011, 11:30 PM
I'm sure he'll go on to win the Cy Young award now that I posted that, but might as well have some fun while we can at the expense of our favorite opposing pitcher.

You just can't make this stuff up: Chris Carpenter is 1-7 and we're nearly halfway through the season. I love the idea that he's getting to "washed up" territory. I don't think he's there yet and I fully expect him to rebound with a strong second half, but it's still hilarious that he's started 1-7.

And no, I'm not going to say it. I'm sure someone else will. :beerme:

Patrick Bateman
06-17-2011, 11:32 PM
It is funny.

But he's nowehere near washed up as basically any stat other than win-loss will illustrate.

savafan
06-17-2011, 11:32 PM
My 3 year old son just explained to me why this is funny

Red Leader
06-17-2011, 11:34 PM
My 3 year old son just explained to me why this is funny

What did you tell him?

savafan
06-17-2011, 11:37 PM
What did you tell him?

I told him that maybe we should call up the Carpenter's, so he can speak to their boy and save Chris the embarrassment.

Red Leader
06-17-2011, 11:38 PM
I told him that maybe we should call up the Carpenter's, so he can speak to their boy and save Chris the embarrassment.

:laugh: :thumbup:

Blitz Dorsey
06-18-2011, 12:03 AM
My 3 year old son just explained to me why this is funny

Ha! Close enough. :beerme:

Blitz Dorsey
06-18-2011, 12:05 AM
It is funny.

But he's nowehere near washed up as basically any stat other than win-loss will illustrate.

I agree that he's not washed up yet (as I said) but I disagree that he's "nowhere near" washed up. Based on his injury history and his age, I say he's definitely approaching the area code where "washed up" resides.

Ghosts of 1990
06-18-2011, 12:07 AM
Definitely didn't see this coming from Carp

Patrick Bateman
06-18-2011, 12:20 AM
I agree that he's not washed up yet (as I said) but I disagree that he's "nowhere near" washed up. Based on his injury history and his age, I say he's definitely approaching the area code where "washed up" resides.

I don't disagree. I'm just more or less saying his "real" stats are pretty similar to the last few years. The won loss record is more reflective of bad timing and bad run support.

Either way it's funny, and I honestly don't know how he will be able to explain it to his son. His son is likely far too young to fully understand statistical analysis beyond won-loss record, as such, his son probably believes his pops is washed up.

Blitz Dorsey
06-18-2011, 12:26 AM
I don't disagree. I'm just more or less saying his "real" stats are pretty similar to the last few years. The won loss record is more reflective of bad timing and bad run support.

Either way it's funny, and I honestly don't know how he will be able to explain it to his son. His son is likely far too young to fully understand statistical analysis beyond won-loss record, as such, his son probably believes his pops is washed up.

Patrick comes right out with it! Ha.

As for Carpenter, we can't forget about the HGH lab in the basement of Tony LaRussa's house. (Pretty sure Dave Duncan also has one, but LaRussa's is top-of-the-line. They can also give McGwire a ring if they get really desperate.) So, again, I wouldn't be surprised to see him rebound. And yes, his ERA, WHIP and things of that nature really aren't bad at all. I have him on one of my fantasy baseball money league teams. He's killing me in that league, but it's worth it. It's the worst of my three teams by far. I also have Adam "Fantasy Team Murderer" Dunn on that team. And Tim Lincecum was my second-round pick. I can't figure out why I'm so terrible in that league.

_Sir_Charles_
06-18-2011, 10:56 AM
I'll be honest, I thought this would start for Carpenter last year. He's definitely due for a rather sharp decline. And W/L record aside, that ERA isn't exactly sparkling. He's dropped pretty much across the board in nearly all his stats...it's not just W/L.

ERA 47th in NL (4.47)
WHIP 44th in NL (1.39)
BB 40th in NL (24)
QS 28th in NL (8)
K's 18th in NL (78)

Now what I WASN'T expecting was to see Loshe, Garcia & McClellan pitch like aces for extended stretches. It looks like Garcia's the real-deal, but come on...LOSHE!?! McClellan?!? This team is in for a freefall back to reality IMO. (same goes for Berkman & some hitters...Holiday & Pujols, I feel they'll maintain, but SEVERAL others should drop-off)

nate
06-18-2011, 11:10 AM
Carpenter is essentially the same pitcher he was last and he's been throughout his career:

K/9
2010: 6.86
2011: 7.11
Career: 6.86

BB/9
2010: 2.41
2011: 2.19
Career: 2.59

HR/9
2010: 0.80
2011: 0.91
Career: 0.92

FIP
2010: 3.69
2011: 3.52
Career: 3.87

xFIP
2010: 3.70
2011: 3.34
Career: 3.41

Wild guess: his record is explained by the amount of runs his offense scores when he starts.

VR
06-18-2011, 11:28 AM
His no range/ no play defense plays a part as well.

RFS62
06-18-2011, 12:14 PM
Here's how one should explain the fact that he's 1-7 with basically the same numbers as in his past it to his kid....

Karma

VR
06-18-2011, 12:15 PM
Here's how one should explain the fact that he's 1-7 with basically the same numbers as in his past it to his kid....

Karma

"lol" yes.....I think that is the technical term for it.

Blitz Dorsey
06-18-2011, 12:51 PM
His no range/ no play defense plays a part as well.

Very good point. The Cards are atrocious defensively.

VR
06-18-2011, 12:57 PM
Very good point. The Cards are atrocious defensively.

We really have it spoiled. Last night's 3-2 loss could have easily been 7-2 with a different version of the Reds D over the years. (or lack thereof)


It's so nice to see it played out by other teams.

757690
06-18-2011, 01:08 PM
Carpenter is essentially the same pitcher he was last and he's been throughout his career:

K/9
2010: 6.86
2011: 7.11
Career: 6.86

BB/9
2010: 2.41
2011: 2.19
Career: 2.59

HR/9
2010: 0.80
2011: 0.91
Career: 0.92

FIP
2010: 3.69
2011: 3.52
Career: 3.87

xFIP
2010: 3.70
2011: 3.34
Career: 3.41

Wild guess: his record is explained by the amount of runs his offense scores when he starts.

He has gotten less runs support this year, 3.65 runs per game, compared to 4.81 last year and 4.69 the year before, but it's not completely accurate to say that he has been the same pitcher as before.

He has gotten hit much harder this year. His tERA, which is based on how the ball is being hit against him, is much higher this year, 4.32 compared to 3.62 last year and 3.69 career. You can see this in his LD rate, which is up significantly from 16.7% last year and 19.1% career to 23.4% this year. This has resulted in a .280 avg against, up from .240 last year and .258 career.

Now one can argue that those will go down and are more a matter of luck. I disagree, but regardless, it doesn't change the fact that he has been hit harder, and had been giving up more hits and more line drives so far.

nate
06-18-2011, 01:56 PM
He has gotten less runs support this year, 3.65 runs per game, compared to 4.81 last year and 4.69 the year before, but it's not completely accurate to say that he has been the same pitcher as before.

He has gotten hit much harder this year. His tERA, which is based on how the ball is being hit against him, is much higher this year, 4.32 compared to 3.62 last year and 3.69 career. You can see this in his LD rate, which is up significantly from 16.7% last year and 19.1% career to 23.4% this year. This has resulted in a .280 avg against, up from .240 last year and .258 career.

Now one can argue that those will go down and are more a matter of luck. I disagree, but regardless, it doesn't change the fact that he has been hit harder, and had been giving up more hits and more line drives so far.

True and good points. High five!

However, I don't think he's a "1-7 pitcher" (whatever that is) nor do I think he's a 4.47 ERA pitcher.

What would his record be if he got the same run support as last year? What would his record be if he got run support equal to his team's runs scored per game this season?

As hilarious as the HWCCETTHS jokes are (and I advocate telling more) I believe we're seeing another disconnect between pitching record and production.

PuffyPig
06-18-2011, 04:26 PM
Either way it's funny, and I honestly don't know how he will be able to explain it to his son. His son is likely far too young to fully understand statistical analysis beyond won-loss record, as such, his son probably believes his pops is washed up.

I thing I undestand what you mean.

Carpenter's son is too stupid to understand that W-L record is out of his Dad's control, and that the 3 things he can control (K's, W's and HR's) are right in line with his best years.

Blitz Dorsey
06-18-2011, 05:24 PM
True and good points. High five!

However, I don't think he's a "1-7 pitcher" (whatever that is) nor do I think he's a 4.47 ERA pitcher.

What would his record be if he got the same run support as last year? What would his record be if he got run support equal to his team's runs scored per game this season?

As hilarious as the HWCCETTHS jokes are (and I advocate telling more) I believe we're seeing another disconnect between pitching record and production.

Wow, turning it into an acronym. (A hard to pronounce one, but one nonetheless.) Now that is going above and beyond sir.

CarolinaRedleg
06-18-2011, 09:51 PM
Wow, turning it into an acronym. (A hard to pronounce one, but one nonetheless.) Now that is going above and beyond sir.

Huh-WECK-see-thus?? (Taking a stab at pronunciation)

RedLegSuperStar
06-19-2011, 07:50 AM
Maybe Cry Baby Chris should be incharge of all pitching mounds around Major League baseball.. perhaps then he won't have to ***** every 5th day. Wonder if he ever relized he is just not that good this year and try to work on his mechanics. Watch film turd and fix your mistakes. Or in our case don't and continue to blame the world.

MikeThierry
06-20-2011, 10:33 AM
I think the big issue has been run support. Its like the offense becomes anemic when he pitches. There was a stretch where the offense scored something like 6 runs for him in 4 games. Other than that, there have been a lot of unlucky things go on with him this year (bad defense, bloop hits, etc).

From what I see in his pitches he hasn't really lost a whole lot. In fact he has thrown a lot of fastballs up to 95 mph which he wasn't doing the past couple of years. His stuff is there but it is just really weird how his year is turning out.