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View Full Version : Dusty and Walt on SS: "We are happy with what we have"



dougdirt
06-18-2011, 07:12 PM
From Fay (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/06/18/one-rehab-start-for-bailey-cozart-hasnt-forced-move-yet/):

Shortstop Zack Cozart is hitting .323 with 23 doubles, seven home runs and 28 RBI, while the Reds shortstops hover around .230 with little power.

Does there come a point where Cozart forces a move?

“We’re not at that point yet,” Jocketty said. “We’ve got a lot of guys down there doing well. (Yonder) Alonso’s done well, (Juan) Franicsco, (Jeremy) Hermida. A lot of guys are down there who are putting up good numbers. Dusty and I have talked about it. Right now, we’re happy with what we have.”

My brain pretty much just melted.

Redhook
06-18-2011, 07:26 PM
Liars! :D

757690
06-18-2011, 07:33 PM
Until they actually bring someone up, they kinda have to say that. And he did qualify it with "for now."

Superdude
06-18-2011, 07:35 PM
:bang:

Is every organization this incredibly irritating when it comes to being loyal to anemic players or is that specifically a Cincinnati thing?

Brutus
06-18-2011, 07:40 PM
Jocketty may well be telling the truth. But regardless, why would he say otherwise? What is to be gained by coming out and saying "we're not happy with what we have"?

If he did say that, he'd most certainly lose posturing and negotiating leverage in any prospective trade discussions.

It's very possible they are in fact content. But my hunch is that they aren't and they're surveying the landscape before making moves (let alone commenting publicly on them).

Will M
06-18-2011, 07:47 PM
I agree that Walt isn't going to say "we are desperate for a shortstop".

However, the SS/Cozart situation is an example of the very conservative way the Reds are run currently. Its frustrating to me as a fan when there are guys on the team who have a minimal chance to suddenly improve get start after start. All 162 games count.

RedsManRick
06-18-2011, 07:50 PM
Agree with the others? What's he going to say? If these guys don't starting hitting, we're gonna cut one of them loose. What would that accomplish?

As absolutely frustrating as it is, I've finally come to understand you have to take anything they say with a giant grain of salt.

Brutus
06-18-2011, 07:52 PM
I agree that Walt isn't going to say "we are desperate for a shortstop".

However, the SS/Cozart situation is an example of the very conservative way the Reds are run currently. Its frustrating to me as a fan when there are guys on the team who have a minimal chance to suddenly improve get start after start. All 162 games count.

I'm of the opinion they clearly need to find an upgrade, as they don't have someone on the Major League active roster that's going to produce at a capable level. I differ with most others on using Cozart, though. Prior to this year, Cozart hasn't shown anything to indicate he would hit at the majors with any regularity. If what he's doing in Louisville is legit (and it could be), I'd personally like to see it for more than half a season.

I don't mind the trepidation regarding Cozart. It was just last year he OPS'd just .726 in AAA in nearly 600 PAs.

If I'm the Reds, all my energy is on either Hardy or Reyes. If that falls through in July and Cozart is still hitting, I'd hand it over to him.

Superdude
06-18-2011, 07:57 PM
I agree that Walt isn't going to say "we are desperate for a shortstop".

However, the SS/Cozart situation is an example of the very conservative way the Reds are run currently. Its frustrating to me as a fan when there are guys on the team who have a minimal chance to suddenly improve get start after start. All 162 games count.

Agreed. I wouldn't expect them to say anything different when they're put on the spot like that, but watching the epitome of futility, Paul Janish, cranking out a .270 slugging percentage while a 25 year old Cozart demolishes AAA is just plain idiotic at this point.

Matt700wlw
06-18-2011, 08:19 PM
In other words.....a move is coming soon

Brutus
06-18-2011, 08:23 PM
In other words.....a move is coming soon

heh, you must have received your Walt Jocketty decoder ring that comes with every 10th purchase at Skyline.

Superdude
06-18-2011, 08:31 PM
heh, you must have received your Walt Jocketty decoder ring that comes with every 10th purchase at Skyline.

be sure to drink your ovaltine?...a crummy commercial!

dougdirt
06-18-2011, 08:34 PM
be sure to drink your ovaltine?...a crummy commercial!

:thumbup::beerme:

Will M
06-18-2011, 09:26 PM
be sure to drink your ovaltine?...a crummy commercial!

I love obscure references!

LvJ
06-18-2011, 09:33 PM
Then the Reds deserve to fail.

I don't care. OOTP12 comes out Monday. Alsonso is my starting LF and Cozart will be at short. Goodbye Gomes and Edgar.

OldXOhio
06-18-2011, 10:22 PM
Wish I had a shot of Baghdad Bob to post right about now.

CarolinaRedleg
06-18-2011, 10:45 PM
Wish I had a shot of Baghdad Bob to post right about now.

http://www.blogcdn.com/www.bloggingstocks.com/media/2007/07/baghdad_bob_1.jpg

redsmetz
06-18-2011, 10:49 PM
Jocketty may well be telling the truth. But regardless, why would he say otherwise? What is to be gained by coming out and saying "we're not happy with what we have"?

If he did say that, he'd most certainly lose posturing and negotiating leverage in any prospective trade discussions.

It's very possible they are in fact content. But my hunch is that they aren't and they're surveying the landscape before making moves (let alone commenting publicly on them).

Brutus may well be a rocket scientist, so no offense if you are, but what he's said here doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that this is exactly why such words may emanate from any organization.

edabbs44
06-18-2011, 10:53 PM
2010: Walt is an idiot, he should bench Cabrera and start Janish because he couldn't possibly be worse than OCab.

2011: Walt is Baghdad Bob, I can't believe is sticking with these guys, he is clueless, yada yada yada.

I'm fairly certain that he knows what the deal is. He is watching the same games as us.

OldXOhio
06-18-2011, 11:22 PM
2010: Walt is an idiot, he should bench Cabrera and start Janish because he couldn't possibly be worse than OCab.

2011: Walt is Baghdad Bob, I can't believe is sticking with these guys, he is clueless, yada yada yada.

I'm fairly certain that he knows what the deal is. He is watching the same games as us.

I'm sure he does. But we're not the ones saying everything is fine at SS, he is.

edabbs44
06-18-2011, 11:26 PM
I'm sure he does. But we're not the ones saying everything is fine at SS, he is.

Is he really going to do anything but say that?

AmarilloRed
06-18-2011, 11:31 PM
Could Super-Two be an issue? I keep thinking the Reds haven't called him because they want to be careful about service time.

OldXOhio
06-18-2011, 11:32 PM
You mean we should expect him to lie to us? As you said, he is watching, he can see for himself what is going on.

Brutus
06-18-2011, 11:46 PM
Could Super-Two be an issue? I keep thinking the Reds haven't called him because they want to be careful about service time.

They're far enough into June that they're past the Super Two cutoff.

That usually falls between the last week of May and first week or 10 days of June.

edabbs44
06-18-2011, 11:53 PM
You mean we should expect him to lie to us? As you said, he is watching, he can see for himself what is going on.

I expect him to do what is best for the organization.

LoganBuck
06-18-2011, 11:54 PM
Janish did have an impressive hit tonight.

This season is maddening.

Superdude
06-18-2011, 11:56 PM
Is he really going to do anything but say that?

It doesn't matter what he says. He can sing praises about Paul Janish to the media all he wants, but failing to pull the trigger on the incredibly simple and obvious move of calling up Cozart is just deflating as a fan.

AtomicDumpling
06-19-2011, 12:01 AM
Jocketty has failed to adequately address the gaping holes at shortstop and left field since the day he took over the team. Those two positions have been glaring deficiencies for years. Is now the time he finally does his job and fixes them? Maybe, but don't hold your breath.

Tony Cloninger
06-19-2011, 12:25 AM
Could Super-Two be an issue? I keep thinking the Reds haven't called him because they want to be careful about service time.


I can understand not signing a big FA in the offseason or perhaps not wanting to trade for a rental .....but beacuse of a possible Super Two issue? That's Mike Brownesque to me.

AmarilloRed
06-19-2011, 12:45 AM
I can understand not signing a big FA in the offseason or perhaps not wanting to trade for a rental .....but beacuse of a possible Super Two issue? That's Mike Brownesque to me.

It's not like the Reds haven't done it before-they did it with Bruce. I could seeing them do it if they thought he was going to be a really good SS.Most teams would want to avoid paying arbitration early if they could.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-19-2011, 02:11 AM
Jocketty has failed to adequately address the gaping holes at shortstop and left field since the day he took over the team. Those two positions have been glaring deficiencies for years. Is now the time he finally does his job and fixes them? Maybe, but don't hold your breath.

Doubt it. To describe Walt Jocketty's Cincinnati tenure as anything other than royally disappointing would be severely misguided, at best. :thumbdown:

Any GM could have extended Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto - those were obvious moves to make. And while Walt went out and got old STL pal Scott Rolen, who's to say that Wayne Krivsky or another GM wouldn't have done significantly more than that over the past three years? It's almost inconceivable that we continue to listen to the same old broken records at SS and LF, when it's been more than painfully obvious that those two positions have been major problems.

With the current underwhelming three-headed monster in LF and Paul "broomstick bat" Janish at SS, it's like the Reds are trying to swim laps with a giant front office-sanctioned anvil fastened around their neck.

How much longer can we realistically hope to be bailed out by 7-game Cardinals losing streaks or a nasty Brewers interleague schedule? Sooner rather than later, the Reds are going to have to do something much more than fool around the .500 mark. And Walt will need to upgrade the roster in order to do it.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-19-2011, 02:35 AM
Walt doesn't want to mess with that sweet chemistry down on the farm.

OldXOhio
06-19-2011, 03:17 AM
I expect him to do what is best for the organization.

And I don't suspect his comments as posturing, too transparent. Janish is a terrible hitting SS, period. To come out and say your happy with him tells me he's just that and if changes are coming they'll be elsewhere.

Superdude
06-19-2011, 03:37 AM
Doubt it. To describe Walt Jocketty's Cincinnati tenure as anything other than royally disappointing would be severely misguided, at best. :thumbdown:

Any GM could have extended Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto - those were obvious moves to make. And while Walt went out and got old STL pal Scott Rolen, who's to say that Wayne Krivsky or another GM wouldn't have done significantly more than that over the past three years? It's almost inconceivable that we continue to listen to the same old broken records at SS and LF, when it's been more than painfully obvious that those two positions have been major problems.

With the current underwhelming three-headed monster in LF and Paul "broomstick bat" Janish at SS, it's like the Reds are trying to swim laps with a giant front office-sanctioned anvil fastened around their neck.

How much longer can we realistically hope to be bailed out by 7-game Cardinals losing streaks or a nasty Brewers interleague schedule? Sooner rather than later, the Reds are going to have to do something much more than fool around the .500 mark. And Walt will need to upgrade the roster in order to do it.

Agree with this entirely. Not trying to take away from what Rolen brought us last year, but the production from that trade was dumb luck for Jocketty IMO, and Rolen's now regressing quicker and harder than anyone imagined. The way Chapman's been handled has been a complete disappointment. And the now organizational philosophy of draining the value out of prospects at AAA into their mid twenties is getting pretty old. If Alonso or Cozart or Frazier or Francisco or Dorn or even Heisey aren't in your plans, then trade them for something and move on.

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 07:30 AM
Jocketty has failed to adequately address the gaping holes at shortstop and left field since the day he took over the team. Those two positions have been glaring deficiencies for years. Is now the time he finally does his job and fixes them? Maybe, but don't hold your breath.

The Reds are 13th in the majors in LF OPS.

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 07:43 AM
Agree with this entirely. Not trying to take away from what Rolen brought us last year, but the production from that trade was dumb luck for Jocketty IMO, and Rolen's now regressing quicker and harder than anyone imagined. The way Chapman's been handled has been a complete disappointment. And the now organizational philosophy of draining the value out of prospects at AAA into their mid twenties is getting pretty old. If Alonso or Cozart or Frazier or Francisco or Dorn or even Heisey aren't in your plans, then trade them for something and move on.

Trading season hasn't begun yet. Give it time.

RedLegSuperStar
06-19-2011, 08:44 AM
Last night with the bases loaded we stuck Edgar Renteria out there to pinch hit.. umm epic fail. Although his numbers were relatively good in that situation.. his age and his pop are not what it was.. not even near last season. Not only is Zach Cozart crushing AAA pitching but Janish isn't doing much better. I'd almost rather see Cairo over there. Janish has the glove so in my opinion he stays. But to sit there and keep paying for Renteria is assonine. Half of the Louisville roster deserves an oppurtunity and at some point this team is going to have to shed bagage.

GAC
06-19-2011, 08:49 AM
I agree that Walt isn't going to say "we are desperate for a shortstop".

He's not going to publicly embarrass the guys who are his current SSs.

They're doing a fine job of that themselves. No need to throw more coals on the fire! :D

traderumor
06-19-2011, 09:55 AM
Anytime I see folks clamoring for a prospect as the replacement, I remember Brandon Larson.

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 10:44 AM
Anytime I see folks clamoring for a prospect as the replacement, I remember Brandon Larson.

I remember Paul Janish. Some have very short memories.

mth123
06-19-2011, 10:49 AM
Anytime I see folks clamoring for a prospect as the replacement, I remember Brandon Larson.

So lets stick with the incumbents who've proven that they suck instead of trying to improve. 4th place thinking IMO.

Sometimes you push aside a Willy T and make room for Drew Stubbs or you trade an aging an done Griffey to make way for Jay Bruce or you supplant a mediocre vet like Scott Hatteberg to make way for a future MVP. Sometimes you take a chance on a kid and discover a star like Brandon Phillips.

Often they fail, but its a better idea than being stuck with Tony Womack at 2B.

Cedric
06-19-2011, 10:53 AM
I remember Paul Janish. Some have very short memories.

By this logic no player would ever be replaced. That obviously makes no sense.

Ron Madden
06-19-2011, 10:59 AM
By this logic no player would ever be replaced. That obviously makes no sense.

I think you are exactly right Cedric.

Scrap Irony
06-19-2011, 11:29 AM
Doubt it. To describe Walt Jocketty's Cincinnati tenure as anything other than royally disappointing would be severely misguided, at best. :thumbdown:

Any GM could have extended Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto - those were obvious moves to make. And while Walt went out and got old STL pal Scott Rolen, who's to say that Wayne Krivsky or another GM wouldn't have done significantly more than that over the past three years? It's almost inconceivable that we continue to listen to the same old broken records at SS and LF, when it's been more than painfully obvious that those two positions have been major problems.

With the current underwhelming three-headed monster in LF and Paul "broomstick bat" Janish at SS, it's like the Reds are trying to swim laps with a giant front office-sanctioned anvil fastened around their neck.

How much longer can we realistically hope to be bailed out by 7-game Cardinals losing streaks or a nasty Brewers interleague schedule? Sooner rather than later, the Reds are going to have to do something much more than fool around the .500 mark. And Walt will need to upgrade the roster in order to do it.

Yeah, 'cause past GMs were so successful in Cincinnati. Why, they won... well, I'm sure they could have earned Executive of the... Well, I'm sure they found the pitch--...

Fact is, Jocketty was the first GM to take the Reds to a .500 record in a decade.
Fact is, Jocketty is the first Red GM to earn Executive of the Year in more than that.
Fact is, Jocketty is the first Red GM to guide the Reds to the post-season since 1996.

Is this to say he's perfect? Obviously not. But he's been to the playoffs eight times in 14 and three-quarter seasons as GM.

But sure, anyone could do as well as Jocketty. :thumbdown:

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-19-2011, 12:19 PM
Yeah, 'cause past GMs were so successful in Cincinnati. Why, they won... well, I'm sure they could have earned Executive of the... Well, I'm sure they found the pitch--...

Fact is, Jocketty was the first GM to take the Reds to a .500 record in a decade.
Fact is, Jocketty is the first Red GM to earn Executive of the Year in more than that.
Fact is, Jocketty is the first Red GM to guide the Reds to the post-season since 1996.

Is this to say he's perfect? Obviously not. But he's been to the playoffs eight times in 14 and three-quarter seasons as GM.

But sure, anyone could do as well as Jocketty. :thumbdown:

Walt Jocketty had the fortune to step into the Cincinnati GM role right when certain players he had nothing to do with were ready to win at the MLB level (Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Cueto, etc.). I'll give just as much credit - if not more - to Jocketty's two predecessors for last season's division championship than Jocketty himself. He does get credit for adding Rolen, Leake and OCab into the mix, but the most recent meaningful addition he made to this team was two seasons ago.

Since then he's failed to adequately address SS; he's failed miserably at LF (and you have to add in the keeping Gomes/getting rid of Laynce Nix as part of his botched handling of that position); he's failed to bring in a No. 1 starter; he's failed in his handling of Aroldis Chapman; and he's failed to get anything meaningful or useful out of the stockpile of talent currently doing the Reds little good sitting at AAA.

And the fact that he has been to the playoffs so many times as a GM only makes his tenure in Cincinnati all the more disappointing. Where are the aggressive moves that he's made in the past to get to that next level, to make good teams great? We're just not seeing anything remotely close to what we expected - hence the disappointment.

KYRedsFan
06-19-2011, 12:29 PM
Walt Jocketty had the fortune to step into the Cincinnati GM role right when certain players he had nothing to do with were ready to win at the MLB level (Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Cueto, etc.). I'll give just as much credit - if not more - to Jocketty's two predecessors for last season's division championship than Jocketty himself. He does get credit for adding Rolen, Leake and OCab into the mix, but the most recent meaningful addition he made to this team was two seasons ago.

Since then he's failed to adequately address SS; he's failed miserably at LF (and you have to add in the keeping Gomes/getting rid of Laynce Nix as part of his botched handling of that position); he's failed to bring in a No. 1 starter; he's failed in his handling of Aroldis Chapman; and he's failed to get anything meaningful or useful out of the stockpile of talent currently doing the Reds little good sitting at AAA.

And the fact that he has been to the playoffs so many times as a GM only makes his tenure in Cincinnati all the more disappointing. Where are the aggressive moves that he's made in the past to get to that next level, to make good teams great? We're just not seeing anything remotely close to what we expected - hence the disappointment.


This. :beerme:

VR
06-19-2011, 12:48 PM
Anytime I see folks clamoring for a prospect as the replacement, I remember Brandon Larson.

Put it this way.....in AAA, you are facing pitching that can't break the top 12 of any major league club....and elementary scouting reports.

Facing top pitching every night, with scouting that will expose even the smallest of holes in your game, is very different.

All these minor leaguers may have success. But not a single one of them is a sure thing.

Always Red
06-19-2011, 01:02 PM
And the fact that he has been to the playoffs so many times as a GM only makes his tenure in Cincinnati all the more disappointing. Where are the aggressive moves that he's made in the past to get to that next level, to make good teams great? We're just not seeing anything remotely close to what we expected - hence the disappointment.

Maybe ownership is keeping him from trading away cheaper, hopeful younger players for bonafide, expensive MLB talent at SS, LF and the TOR, which would take a good team to greatness?

Decisions like that don't take place in a vacuum.

LoganBuck
06-19-2011, 01:09 PM
Put it this way.....in AAA, you are facing pitching that can't break the top 12 of any major league club....and elementary scouting reports.

Facing top pitching every night, with scouting that will expose even the smallest of holes in your game, is very different.

All these minor leaguers may have success. But not a single one of them is a sure thing.

Sure but at this point we have to proven elements at SS. A guy who has a below replacement bat, and a guy who is old. These facts are not in doubt. We have a promising but unknown commodity at AAA. Can Cozart really do worse? Maybe, but we won't know until he is given a chance.

I(heart)Freel
06-19-2011, 01:16 PM
Put it this way.....in AAA, you are facing pitching that can't break the top 12 of any major league club....and elementary scouting reports.

Facing top pitching every night, with scouting that will expose even the smallest of holes in your game, is very different.

All these minor leaguers may have success. But not a single one of them is a sure thing.


The thing is... the expectations for the prospects are LOW.

Cozart and someone like Alonso don't have to come up and light the world on fire. They literally have to hit better than .227/.257/.272 (Janish) and .216/.335/.401 (Gomes) to improve the team's offensive production. Defense is another matter and worth debating how much worse the prospects would be over the major leaguers.

In short, they may not be sure things, but they don't have to be saviors either.

reds44
06-19-2011, 01:36 PM
The Reds are getting what they deserve at this point. The put a mediocre team with too many holes together, and they are getting mediocre results.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-19-2011, 01:55 PM
Put it this way.....in AAA, you are facing pitching that can't break the top 12 of any major league club....and elementary scouting reports.

Facing top pitching every night, with scouting that will expose even the smallest of holes in your game, is very different.

All these minor leaguers may have success. But not a single one of them is a sure thing.

But then why the extreme reluctance to trade them? It's a catch-22: They may never amount to anything in the majors, but they're too promising to trade away for established players that could help immediately.

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 02:07 PM
But then why the extreme reluctance to trade them? It's a catch-22: They may never amount to anything in the majors, but they're too promising to trade away for established players that could help immediately.

Are there many trades made by June 19th in a typical year? Maybe it isn't a reluctance to trade them, maybe it's a reluctance to trade for them right now.

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 02:07 PM
The Reds are getting what they deserve at this point. The put a mediocre team with too many holes together, and they are getting mediocre results.

3 games out.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-19-2011, 02:14 PM
Are there many trades made by June 19th in a typical year? Maybe it isn't a reluctance to trade them, maybe it's a reluctance to trade for them right now.

I understand that. But it's not just "right now" that's the problem, it's last offseason when the inactivity was most glaring and frustrating, and last July. And it's not just trades either. There are seemingly plenty of in-house answers available at AAA that are being ignored.

Walt has had plenty of time to do something. The fact that it's only June 19th and no teams have made trades yet hardly exonerates him.

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 02:25 PM
I understand that. But it's not just "right now" that's the problem, it's last offseason when the inactivity was most glaring and frustrating, and last July. And it's not just trades either. There are seemingly plenty of in-house answers available at AAA that are being ignored.

Walt has had plenty of time to do something. The fact that it's only June 19th and no teams have made trades yet hardly exonerates him.

3 games out. Without upping payroll and giving away prospects. Would have had to do both, to a higher degree, this past offseason. Now they have had a chance to see what they have, what they dont have, and make a deal at lesser prices for spots they know they need help in.

If they are 10 out at the deadline you have a legit gripe. But right now it may just be good business.

Admittedly I cannot defend not calling up Cozart at this point.

mth123
06-19-2011, 02:42 PM
3 games out. Without upping payroll and giving away prospects. Would have had to do both, to a higher degree, this past offseason. Now they have had a chance to see what they have, what they dont have, and make a deal at lesser prices for spots they know they need help in.

If they are 10 out at the deadline you have a legit gripe. But right now it may just be good business.

Admittedly I cannot defend not calling up Cozart at this point.

3 Games out means nothing. This team is 2 games over .500. If you're satisfied being the tallest midget (which is how they got into the post season last year) then fine. I want this team to be World series Contender if not favorite. Playing meaningful games in July is aiming a little low IMO.

_Sir_Charles_
06-19-2011, 02:46 PM
Walt Jocketty had the fortune to step into the Cincinnati GM role right when certain players he had nothing to do with were ready to win at the MLB level (Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Cueto, etc.). I'll give just as much credit - if not more - to Jocketty's two predecessors for last season's division championship than Jocketty himself. He does get credit for adding Rolen, Leake and OCab into the mix, but the most recent meaningful addition he made to this team was two seasons ago.

Since then he's failed to adequately address SS; he's failed miserably at LF (and you have to add in the keeping Gomes/getting rid of Laynce Nix as part of his botched handling of that position); he's failed to bring in a No. 1 starter; he's failed in his handling of Aroldis Chapman; and he's failed to get anything meaningful or useful out of the stockpile of talent currently doing the Reds little good sitting at AAA.

And the fact that he has been to the playoffs so many times as a GM only makes his tenure in Cincinnati all the more disappointing. Where are the aggressive moves that he's made in the past to get to that next level, to make good teams great? We're just not seeing anything remotely close to what we expected - hence the disappointment.

I agree with this, but to be fair to Jocketty...he's never had to deal with the budget constraints in prior jobs that he has with Cincy. I think that's got a lot to do with the lack of aggressiveness to some respect.

757690
06-19-2011, 02:56 PM
The Reds were only four games above .500 and 2 games out at this point last year.

They are a better team than they were last year.

We haven't even reached July yet. There is plenty of time to call up replacements and make trades. I want every prospect called up only when they are ready and not a day earlier.

757690
06-19-2011, 02:57 PM
And the fact that he has been to the playoffs so many times as a GM only makes his tenure in Cincinnati all the more disappointing

You mean like last year? That was so disappointing ;)

I(heart)Freel
06-19-2011, 03:03 PM
The Reds were only four games above .500 and 2 games out at this point last year.

They are a better team than they were last year.

We haven't even reached July yet. There is plenty of time to call up replacements and make trades. I want every prospect called up only when they are ready and not a day earlier.

Better team than last year? Hmm. That's moot.

I respect patience, but do you not think Cozart for one is ready? Or that Yonder's bat's ready? Just curious.

dougdirt
06-19-2011, 03:04 PM
Anytime I see folks clamoring for a prospect as the replacement, I remember Brandon Larson.

And anyone who remembers Brandon Larson should remember to look back at what he was doing in the minors and go, oh, well that should have been painfully obvious he was going to struggle (guys who don't walk and strike out a ton don't make good transitions to the majors and Larson was absolutely one of those guys [think Juan Francisco type of hitter]). Zack Cozart is making a ton of contact and also walking plenty while also hitting for power.

mth123
06-19-2011, 03:05 PM
The Reds were only four games above .500 and 2 games out at this point last year.

They are a better team than they were last year.

We haven't even reached July yet. There is plenty of time to call up replacements and make trades. I want every prospect called up only when they are ready and not a day earlier.

Last year was really nice compared with the lost decade, but don't confuse a 91 win team with no front of the rotation and holes in its line-up with a World Series Contender. That team beat up on bad teams and padded its record by a lot of games against a lousy division. A repeat of last year would be a disappointment. This team has more potential than to simply be the tallest midget. With each day's delay, another opportunity is lost. Propsects, especially offensive players, don't need to be finsihed product to provide an upgrade or to continue developping (pitchers are another story). If Cozart comes up and struggles to a .650 OPS its still a .100 OPS improvement over what's passing for a SS these days in cincy.

Superdude
06-19-2011, 03:36 PM
We haven't even reached July yet. There is plenty of time to call up replacements and make trades.

There's plenty of time to keep losing ballgames for no reason because it's not July yet? Games in April count just as much as games in September.


I want every prospect called up only when they are ready and not a day earlier.

This isn't Bryce Harper we're talking about. Cozart is 25 and mashing in AAA. He doesn't need to have reached the absolute pinnacle version of himself to significantly outproduce his major league counterparts.

757690
06-19-2011, 05:08 PM
Better team than last year? Hmm. That's moot.

I respect patience, but do you not think Cozart for one is ready? Or that Yonder's bat's ready? Just curious.

I have no idea. I've never seen either play more than a game or two in spring training. That's why I'll trust those that see them everyday.

And it's not just putting up a nice OPS. There's a lot to the game, like defense, base running, basic fundamentals that they might not have mastered quite yet. Not only do those things matter, but if the come up and are overwhelmed by MLB play, it could set them back years in their development.

mth123
06-19-2011, 05:43 PM
I have no idea. I've never seen either play more than a game or two in spring training. That's why I'll trust those that see them everyday.

And it's not just putting up a nice OPS. There's a lot to the game, like defense, base running, basic fundamentals that they might not have mastered quite yet. Not only do those things matter, but if the come up and are overwhelmed by MLB play, it could set them back years in their development.

Some stuff needs debunked:

1. Cozart was considered a major league defender on the day he was drafted. If there is any drop-off at all from Janish over-rated defense, it will be minimal.

2. Last Season Cozart stole 30 bases while being caught only 4 times. This year he has 7 steals and has only been caught once. He's a fine baserunner.

3. Cozart's offense hasn't been total surpise. He had a .787 OPS as a 22 Y/O in A Ball and after skipping a level had a respectable .758 in AA. Last seson his OPS was down at .726 and he had some OBP issues, but he hit 17 HR and had double digit homers each of the last three seasons. He's got both speed and power that is superior to anything Janish can do. He's put it all together so far this year at age 25.

4. Janish Career OPS at AA is .686 and at AAA .666. His high water mark above A+ is .711 in 365 plate appearances as a 25 year old in AAA.

I don't expect Cozart to be more than a decent 7 or 8 hitter and he may fall flat in the big leagues, but the talk that he's the second coming of Janish is wrong. He's hit better than Janish, he has more power and more speed. He's a polished defensive player. Janish has a stronger arm and that's about it. A competent bottom of the order hitter versus a nearly automatic out is an improvement. He may not be great, but its similar to settling on a 4.75 ERA who eats innings in the fifth starter spot. He may not be great, but it beats rotating guys with a 6.50 ERA through there. The upgrade from crummy to competent is sometimes as big as from average to star caliber.

757690
06-19-2011, 05:47 PM
Some stuff needs debunked:

1. Cozart was considered a major league defender on the day he was drafted. If there is any drop-off at all from Janish over-rated defense, it will be minimal.

2. Last Season Cozart stole 30 bases while being caught only 4 times. This year he has 7 steals and has only been caught once. He's a fine baserunner.

3. Cozart's offense hasn't been total surpise. He had a .787 OPS as a 22 Y/O in A Ball and after skipping a level had a respectable .758 in AA. Last seson his OPS was down at .726 and he had some OBP issues, but he hit 17 HR and had double digit homers each of the last three seasons. He's got both speed and power that is superior to anything Janish can do. He's put it all together so far this year at age 25.

4. Janish Career OPS at AA is .686 and at AAA .666. His high water mark above A+ is .711 in 365 plate appearances as a 25 year old in AAA.

I don't expect Cozart to be more than a decent 7 or 8 hitter and he may fall flat in the big leagues, but the talk that he's the second coming of Janish is wrong. He's hit better than Janish, he has more power and more speed. He's a polished defensive player. Janish has a stronger arm and that's about it. A competent bottom of the order hitter versus a nearly automatic out is an improvement. He may not be great, but its similar to settling on a 4.75 ERA who eats innings in the fifth starter spot. He may not be great, but it beats rotating guys with a 6.50 ERA through there. The upgrade from crummy to competent is sometimes as big as from average to star caliber.

While all of that may be true, none of it says that Cozart is ready for the major leagues. It just means that when he is ready, he will likely be an improvement over Janish.

Superdude
06-19-2011, 05:59 PM
While all of that may be true, none of it says that Cozart is ready for the major leagues. It just means that when he is ready, he will likely be an improvement over Janish.

The only thing "being ready for the major leagues" means is being capable of outproducing everyone else the organization has to offer. I can borderline guarantee you Cozart is the best player the Reds have at shortstop. We might as well leave him down there forever if we're going to wait on him to master every aspect of the game.

We can't keep using obscure complaints like "baserunning" and "fundamentals" to hold guys back. After three years at a D1 university and 4 years of minor league coaching, something tells me Cozart has some idea how to make decisions on the base paths.

mth123
06-19-2011, 06:06 PM
While all of that may be true, none of it says that Cozart is ready for the major leagues. It just means that when he is ready, he will likely be an improvement over Janish.

So he's a major league ready defender, he's a good baserunner and he's hitting. He's had about 2100 minor league PAs and played 3 years at a major college. He's 25 (26 soon). He's been a top ten prospect for a couple years now and the guys in front him are awful. What else does he need to do to get a shot? Cure Cancer?

He's as ready as he needs to be to try to upgrade. If he falters, they can send him back down and go back to Janish all glove no bat presence. I don't see how even a slightly undercooked and somewhat disppointing Cozart could be much worse and if he is, Janish is still here (and if not for some reason, Miguel Rojas may provide the same thing with even better defense). Find out now, before they unload the farm for a starter and discover they still have too many holes to win anything.

It won't kill Cozart to come up and fail. Guys get sent back down for more seasoning all the time. The Reds scored 4 runs this week-end. I don't see the sense in waiting.

LoganBuck
06-19-2011, 06:07 PM
While all of that may be true, none of it says that Cozart is ready for the major leagues. It just means that when he is ready, he will likely be an improvement over Janish.

I agree with everything mth wrote, and then when reading this, all I could say is "Did you not just read what he wrote?"

The Reds need an improvement over Janish/Renteria, Cozart costs nothing to improve the lineup. Get it done.

Brutus
06-19-2011, 06:17 PM
I agree with everything mth wrote, and then when reading this, all I could say is "Did you not just read what he wrote?"

The Reds need an improvement over Janish/Renteria, Cozart costs nothing to improve the lineup. Get it done.

He costs nothing to try, but there's no guarantee it will be an improvement. To get him up though, you have to outright assign or release a veteran (Renteria) or expose a defensive replacement (Janish) to waivers to option down.

Perhaps the Reds aren't yet ready to do that for a guy that's not had his feet to the fire ever before, and doesn't have a long track record of success. He hit just .726 in AAA last year, so what he's doing right now is far from sustained.

I'm at the point where I want to see them give it a shot, but I think the other side of the argument is that we don't know Cozart will be an improvement.

Superdude
06-19-2011, 06:30 PM
He costs nothing to try, but there's no guarantee it will be an improvement.

There's always a chance Cozart falls below expectations, but I think the point being made is that Janish and Renteria have been so gut-wrenchingly awful that Cozart could completely fall off a cliff production-wise and still not hurt us relative to what we're running out there now. A worst case scenario of calling up Cozart is ending up back at square one with a weak bat/solid D shortstop.

757690
06-19-2011, 06:30 PM
So he's a major league ready defender, he's a good baserunner and he's hitting. He's had about 2100 minor league PAs and played 3 years at a major college. He's 25 (26 soon). He's been a top ten prospect for a couple years now and the guys in front him are awful. What else does he need to do to get a shot? Cure Cancer?

He's as ready as he needs to be to try to upgrade. If he falters, they can send him back down and go back to Janish all glove no bat presence. I don't see how even a slightly undercooked and somewhat disppointing Cozart could be much worse and if he is, Janish is still here (and if not for some reason, Miguel Rojas may provide the same thing with even better defense). Find out now, before they unload the farm for a starter and discover they still have too many holes to win anything.

It won't kill Cozart to come up and fail. Guys get sent back down for more seasoning all the time. The Reds scored 4 runs this week-end. I don't see the sense in waiting.

First, we have no idea if he is a good baserunner, we only know he can steal bases at the minor league level. Sappelt this spring proved that being able to steal bases doesn't make you a good baserunner.

Second, my point is that moving from the minors to the majors requires more than just baseball talent. It requires a certain level of maturity. It's a completely different situation. We have all seen players come up that have been overwhelmed by the whole major league experience, and fail drastically because of it.

I disagree that there is no harm to trying Cozart at SS and sending him back if he's not ready. That's assuming these guys are robots, or replaceable drill bits. Setbacks like that could set some players back considerably in terms of development.

Now, I have no idea if Cozart is or isn't read for the majors or what effect failure at his first taste of MLB ball will have on him. I'm just saying that these factors have to be considered, and are likely being considered by the Reds currently.

Ron Madden
06-19-2011, 06:34 PM
I'd DFA Renteria in a heartbeat and call Cozart up but that's just me.

Superdude
06-19-2011, 06:41 PM
First, we have no idea if he is a good baserunner, we only know he can steal bases at the minor league level. Sappelt this spring proved that being able to steal bases doesn't make you a good baserunner.

Sappelt made one blunder and Dusty used that as an excuse to send him down. If you give Sappelt or Cozart the green light every time they reach first base, they're no doubt going to frustrate some people, but I refuse to believe these guys can't execute conservative baserunning without some modicum of success.


I disagree that there is no harm to trying Cozart at SS and sending him back if he's not ready. That's assuming these guys are robots, or replaceable drill bits. Setbacks like that could set some players back considerably in terms of development.

This isn't some sensitive, fresh-faced 20 year old with a big ego. Cozart's 25. If he's gonna crumble under a little adversity at this point, then he probably didn't have much of a chance to begin with.

Will M
06-19-2011, 06:44 PM
back when Marge ran the team she would go out and spend money on a free agent like Bill Gullickson or Bo Diaz. Then she would turn around and penny pinch (ie by gutting the farm system). Her most famous incident was trying to resell extra donuts that were left after a meeting. Yep. She would pay millions of dollars on a free agent then try to sell stale donuts for 25 cents.

Folks assume that Bob C is willing to spend money based on things like signing Chapman. Yet I am starting to wonder if he gets really tight fisted once the team is at/close to whatever budget they have set. If the Reds DFAed Renteria it would cost them ~$225K to pay Cozart for the rest of 2011. Is it ridiculous to think the team is losing games for such a small amount of money (for a major league team)? probably. yet last years big acquisition was Edmonds who had a cheap salary. the team cried poor all offseason. as each week goes on its harder to find good reasons as to why certain guys are still around. i am starting to wonder if its Bob C not wanting to eat contracts & then have to pay money to replace the player on the 25 man roster. i certainly hope I am wrong to even think this but i am starting to wonder just how committed Bob C is to winning.

Bob/Walt/Dusty could prove me wrong. Walt really could be holding all these guys back for a series of major deals in July. He could get Reyes/Hardy, a left fielder & Jered Weaver. I'd do cartwheels (or at least try).

Brutus
06-19-2011, 06:47 PM
There's always a chance Cozart falls below expectations, but I think the point being made is that Janish and Renteria have been so gut-wrenchingly awful that Cozart could completely fall off a cliff production-wise and still not hurt us relative to what we're running out there now. A worst case scenario of calling up Cozart is ending up back at square one with a weak bat/solid D shortstop.

I don't really disagree with that. It's improbable if not impossible he could be worse than what the Reds are already getting. I just mean to say there's an assumption being made he'll be an improvement, and we don't really know that for certain either.

I really, strongly prefer getting Reyes, or more realistically, Hardy, but if that doesn't happen, I think Cozart should go ahead and get his chance.

traderumor
06-19-2011, 07:20 PM
And anyone who remembers Brandon Larson should remember to look back at what he was doing in the minors and go, oh, well that should have been painfully obvious he was going to struggle (guys who don't walk and strike out a ton don't make good transitions to the majors and Larson was absolutely one of those guys [think Juan Francisco type of hitter]). Zack Cozart is making a ton of contact and also walking plenty while also hitting for power.
Except the point of my reference was that too many times for me to count a prospect is overvalued as a potential replacement, so I don't get my hopes up much, esp. when the prospect has been knocking on the door for two years and has not been deemed "ready." I'm sure its just the Reds misevaluating.

traderumor
06-19-2011, 07:24 PM
So lets stick with the incumbents who've proven that they suck instead of trying to improve. 4th place thinking IMO.

Sometimes you push aside a Willy T and make room for Drew Stubbs or you trade an aging an done Griffey to make way for Jay Bruce or you supplant a mediocre vet like Scott Hatteberg to make way for a future MVP. Sometimes you take a chance on a kid and discover a star like Brandon Phillips.

Often they fail, but its a better idea than being stuck with Tony Womack at 2B.Do you make that comparison with a straight face? I don't think switching in Cozart is quite comparable to the arrivals of Votto, Stubbs and Bruce.

TOBTTReds
06-19-2011, 07:29 PM
Do you make that comparison with a straight face? I don't think switching in Cozart is quite comparable to the arrivals of Votto, Stubbs and Bruce.

You don't think, but you don't know either. I'm on the side of, I'd rather see what we have than stick with Womack (or Renteria/Janish). It's pretty much a no-brainer that Renteria brings just about nothing to the table on the field. I can't speak for the clubhouse, but I'd guess more production on the field would out weight whatever he brings to the clubhouse.

mth123
06-19-2011, 07:32 PM
First, we have no idea if he is a good baserunner, we only know he can steal bases at the minor league level. Sappelt this spring proved that being able to steal bases doesn't make you a good baserunner.

Second, my point is that moving from the minors to the majors requires more than just baseball talent. It requires a certain level of maturity. It's a completely different situation. We have all seen players come up that have been overwhelmed by the whole major league experience, and fail drastically because of it.

I disagree that there is no harm to trying Cozart at SS and sending him back if he's not ready. That's assuming these guys are robots, or replaceable drill bits. Setbacks like that could set some players back considerably in terms of development.

Now, I have no idea if Cozart is or isn't read for the majors or what effect failure at his first taste of MLB ball will have on him. I'm just saying that these factors have to be considered, and are likely being considered by the Reds currently.

1. Forget the steals and look at the times caught. Didn't need to see Sappelt to know he was a dunderhead on the bases. Completely opposite with Cozart.

2. He'll be 26 in August. if he not mature enough now, he probably won't be. Time to find out. If sending him back down in the event of a failure is that big a deal, he's probably not the answer anyway. Lots of guys come up and go back down before breaking through. Its how the system works.

And Brutus, who is saying Cozart's success is a sure thing? All prospects from the top prospect in the minors to the fringe minor leaguer are question marks until they've had a couple of seasons of success under their belt. The sure thing is the continued suckitude of the current tandem. SS isn't the team's biggest problem. Its not even in the top 2 IMO, but there is an option on hand that may provide an upgrade on a team that needs to accumulate multiple upgrades to get to the next level. No sense in continuing to go with guys we know aren't going to improve much.

Patrick Bateman
06-19-2011, 07:32 PM
Watching Edgar live is really quite disturbing.

His range is crap, his arm is poor.
And he's not hitting.

Janish can't hit.
You have to at least try Cozart right now. He's earned that much. No guarantee he will be better, but the odds are pretty well in his favour.

traderumor
06-19-2011, 07:33 PM
You don't think, but you don't know either. I'm on the side of, I'd rather see what we have than stick with Womack (or Renteria/Janish). It's pretty much a no-brainer that Renteria brings just about nothing to the table on the field. I can't speak for the clubhouse, but I'd guess more production on the field would out weight whatever he brings to the clubhouse."I don't think" was a figure of speech. Try it this way--Cozart is not comparable to bringing up Stubbs, Bruce, and Votto, based on their pedigree and expectations. Cozart would be "I hope he is an incremental improvement over what we already have."

mth123
06-19-2011, 07:38 PM
Do you make that comparison with a straight face? I don't think switching in Cozart is quite comparable to the arrivals of Votto, Stubbs and Bruce.

Nope, but if they were left to rot in AAA, they would never have made it. And don't kid yourself. There were lots of doubts about Votto and Stubbs. Bruce people wanted, but no prospect is a sure thing. The sure thing is that the current tandem is pretty bad and status quo won't improve it.

mth123
06-19-2011, 07:40 PM
You don't think, but you don't know either. I'm on the side of, I'd rather see what we have than stick with Womack (or Renteria/Janish). It's pretty much a no-brainer that Renteria brings just about nothing to the table on the field. I can't speak for the clubhouse, but I'd guess more production on the field would out weight whatever he brings to the clubhouse.

Considering that he's a utility infielder who has basically refused to play 2B or 3B, I'd guess he won't be a huge loss in the clubhouse.

traderumor
06-19-2011, 07:45 PM
Nope, but if they were left to rot in AAA, they would never have made it. And don't kid yourself. There were lots of doubts about Votto and Stubbs. Bruce people wanted, but no prospect is a sure thing. The sure thing is that the current tandem is pretty bad and status quo won't improve it.You love those red herrings. No one is arguing "a prospect must be a sure thing." I've observed that it usually becomes immediately obvious why the promotion didn't happen sooner, usually when they have no other options due to injury. That is my hypothesis on Cozart.

Will M
06-19-2011, 07:46 PM
Considering that he's a utility infielder who has basically refused to play 2B or 3B, I'd guess he won't be a huge loss in the clubhouse.

to me it seems that Edgar offers nothing to the team.
1) can't hit
2) can't play SS
3) won't/can't play 2B/3B

at least Janish can field well.

i actually liked the Renteria signing. it was low cost enough that the team could 'cut bait' if he flopped. he flopped so cut bait.

Superdude
06-19-2011, 07:50 PM
"I don't think" was a figure of speech. Try it this way--Cozart is not comparable to bringing up Stubbs, Bruce, and Votto, based on their pedigree and expectations. Cozart would be "I hope he is an incremental improvement over what we already have."

The risk is all relative to the player you're replacing though. Votto for instance was replacing Hatteberg, who maybe wasn't the most flashy first basemen around, but was a pretty productive player at that point. While Cozart is significantly less of a prospect than Votto was, all he has to do is stay above water to make the move worthwhile.

mth123
06-19-2011, 07:55 PM
You love those red herrings. No one is arguing "a prospect must be a sure thing." I've observed that it usually becomes immediately obvious why the promotion didn't happen sooner, usually when they have no other options due to injury. That is my hypothesis on Cozart.

So what exactly is your point and stance on all of this?

1. Are you satisfied with the guys we have?
2. Do you think Cozart isn't ready?
3. Do you think the guy who signed Willy Taveras can't make a mistake?
4. Or do you just like to argue for the heck of it?

If its that last one, that's OK, it makes good discussion. But you seem to argue against everything anybody says while rarely stating what you think is the right thing to do. Now's your chance.

traderumor
06-19-2011, 07:58 PM
So what exactly is your point and stance on all of this?

1. Are you satisfied with the guys we have?
2. Do you think Cozart isn't ready?
3. Do you think the guy who signed Willy Taveras can't make a mistake?
4 Or do you just like to argue for the heck of it?

If its that last one, that's OK, it makes good discussion. But you seem to argue against everything anybody says while rarely stating what you think is the right thing to do. Now's your chance.I would call "I'm skeptical that prospect X, who this time is named Cozart, will be an improvement" was pretty clear from my posts. I'm sorry you missed the point.

traderumor
06-19-2011, 08:02 PM
By this logic no player would ever be replaced. That obviously makes no sense.How so? Janish is a great example here, since he at one time was prospect X as "we need to at least give Janish a shot." They do, then everyone says "oh, we need to replace Janish. Let's at least give prospect X a shot." Yea, yea, Cozart has better stats, this is a pattern also--maximize the prospect's strength's, ignore the weaknesses--been down the prospect X road a few times, now his name is Cozart. Maybe the prospect Xers will be right one of these times.

mth123
06-19-2011, 08:03 PM
I would call "I'm skeptical that prospect X, who this time is named Cozart, will be an improvement" was pretty clear from my posts. I'm sorry you missed the point.

That still isn't clear. What would you do?

I'm skeptical of every prospect, but moves still need to be made.

traderumor
06-19-2011, 08:07 PM
That still isn't clear. What would you do?

I'm skeptical of every prospect, but moves still need to be made.I don't play the "what would I do" game, so how about moving on. You do, so don't get offended if someone wants to pan your thinking. I think we both got a fair chance to make the point we wanted to make.

mth123
06-19-2011, 08:09 PM
I don't play the "what would I do" game, so how about moving on. I think we both got a fair chance to make the point we wanted to make.

So you stick to genralities like Prospects are iffy and criticize everybody else in the discussion in the process.

Water is wet. I get it.

traderumor
06-19-2011, 08:10 PM
So you stick to genralities like Prospects are iffy and criticize everybody else in the discussion in the process.

Water is wet. I get it.
I suggest you use the ignore feature if you do not care to have any conversations with me.

Superdude
06-19-2011, 08:28 PM
How so? Janish is a great example here, since he at one time was prospect X as "we need to at least give Janish a shot." They do, then everyone says "oh, we need to replace Janish. Let's at least give prospect X a shot." Yea, yea, Cozart has better stats, this is a pattern also--maximize the prospect's strength's, ignore the weaknesses--been down the prospect X road a few times, now his name is Cozart. Maybe the prospect Xers will be right one of these times.

I'm about out on this discussion, but at least look at the background of these guys before lumping them all together into one big group of inevitable failures. If Paul Janish failing as a starter is what made you jaded towards prospects, then you were probably expecting way too much out of Paul Janish.

traderumor
06-19-2011, 08:36 PM
I'm about out on this discussion, but at least look at the background of these guys before lumping them all together into one big group of inevitable failures. If Paul Janish failing as a starter is what made you jaded towards prospects, then you were probably expecting way too much out of Paul Janish.Both of your statements have jumped to conclusions about the basis for my reasoning on Cozart as "Prospect X." First, I have a pretty good idea what to expect from Cozart both from looking at his minor league background and the little bit that I've got to see him play. I've also got a little rule that saves me a lot of time and backtracking that has proven to be a pretty loyal friend--if the Reds are slow to promote someone, there's a pretty good reason why. Sure, they're not fallible, but there's a pretty short list of guys the Reds would not give a chance that have gone elsewhere and made them look foolish. They have been pretty good in this regime at not promoting AAAAers and trying to pawn them off as major leaguers, another thing that helps me to trust the decision making of the current regime.

As for your second statement, I've spent a lot of time on RZ and have seen the pattern with prospect after prospect. It has nothing to do with Janish personally. It has to do with the latest Prospect X. Hopefully my defense mechanism fails this time and a promotion of Cozart, if it ever occurs, provides some meaningful production.

There's always this vibe of "we couldn't do any worse." Then they replaced Felipe Lopez with Royce Clayton (granted, it was the prior regime).

Guacarock
06-19-2011, 09:36 PM
We're two-thirds through June, and our shortstops have combined for 14 hits (1 double, 1 triple, all the rest singles) and 4 RBI for the month -- three from Janish, one from Renteria. That's one RBI every 16 at bats.

Over that same span, Cozart has collected 31 hits and 13 RBI for the Bats, including eight doubles, a triple and three home runs. My spider sense tells me if he got the callup, he could handle the pressure of matching Janish-Renteria's productivity without imploding.

Of course, at the Punch-and-Judy level that Janish-Renteria are delivering, you could bring up an unsung bullfrog from Calaveras County, and not experience much of a drop-off at the plate. Walt and Dusty can't be happy, no matter what they say. Time to cut through the posturing and pretense, and send the driftwood out to sea.

AmarilloRed
06-19-2011, 10:20 PM
What's a reasonable floor and ceiling for Cozart at the MLB level?

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 10:25 PM
What's a reasonable floor and ceiling for Cozart at the MLB level?

I could see .550 to .725, over the rest of the season.

reds44
06-19-2011, 10:29 PM
What's a reasonable floor and ceiling for Cozart at the MLB level?
His floor is probably what we have now.

Patrick Bateman
06-19-2011, 10:47 PM
I could see .550 to .725, over the rest of the season.

Ceiling?

Davis Ross has OPS'd .900 over mostly a full season.

I'm not saying Cozart is a special bat, but my lord, if things fall his way, over half a season, he could do far better than .725, it's just not THAT hard.

TOBTTReds
06-19-2011, 10:52 PM
Fun numbers!! I know Cozart is hitting AAA pitching, but still fun (or painful) to look at.

Doubles this season for Reds SS = 10
Doubles this JUNE for Cozart = 7

Extra BH this season for Reds SS = 11
Extra BH this JUNE for Cozart = 11

HR's this season by Reds SS = 0
HR's this JUNE for Cozart = 3

SB's this season for Reds SS = 5 SB, 2 CS
SB's this JUNE for Cozart = 3 SB, 0 CS (7/8 on the season)

Hits this season for Reds SS = 59
Hits this JUNE for Cozart = 30

TOBTTReds
06-19-2011, 10:53 PM
Ceiling?

Davis Ross has OPS'd .900 over mostly a full season.

I'm not saying Cozart is a special bat, but my lord, if things fall his way, over half a season, he could do far better than .725, it's just not THAT hard.

I'd say his ceiling OPS is .800+, the kids got some pop. I'd have .700 around his floor.

AtomicDumpling
06-19-2011, 10:54 PM
Time for the Reds to concoct an injury so they can put Renteria on the Disabled List and call up Cozart to man shortstop for awhile. Maybe he will provide a spark to the floundering offense. Maybe he will take the job and run with it for the next few years. Maybe he will prove himself as an average offensive shortstop. Maybe he will prove himself to be merely a replacement-level player. Any of those outcomes would be a sizable upgrade over the Janish/Renteria black hole of suckitude.

TOBTTReds
06-19-2011, 10:56 PM
Time for the Reds to concoct an injury so they can put Renteria on the Disabled List and call up Cozart to man shortstop for awhile.

Stubbs could have taken him out on that play today...damn, just missed a good opportunity (I kid, I kid...don't want any bad injuries).

Anyway, Renteria was already unavailable for about 4 games in a row this past month and nothing happened. It was a good opportunity for a DL.

TOBTTReds
06-19-2011, 11:03 PM
The Reds are last in ISO Slug for SS's in MLB

.224 - Rockies
.210 - Indians
.178 - Mets (oh interesting)
-------------------
.063 - Dodgers
.056 - Royals
.039 - Reds

How close can we get it to zero? Could these two actually sink it below? Too bad they aren't batting 2nd, there would be plenty of sac bunt attempts to sink that ISO below zero.

cinreds21
06-19-2011, 11:03 PM
What's a reasonable floor and ceiling for Cozart at the MLB level?

I think Cozy is a Jed Lowrie type player.

Superdude
06-19-2011, 11:04 PM
I'd say his ceiling OPS is .800+, the kids got some pop. I'd have .700 around his floor.

.800+ would be quite a feat, but I definitely agree about him having some solid pop. I've watched quite a few Bats game this year, and Cozart's definitely a guy that can hit the ball hard when he wants to. I could see him approaching 20HR or so pretty frequently at GABP.

And I didn't realize we didn't have a homerun out of the shortstop position yet. It's really almost funny now.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-19-2011, 11:05 PM
Time for the Reds to concoct an injury so they can put Renteria on the Disabled List and call up Cozart to man shortstop for awhile. Maybe he will provide a spark to the floundering offense. Maybe he will take the job and run with it for the next few years. Maybe he will prove himself as an average offensive shortstop. Maybe he will prove himself to be merely a replacement-level player. Any of those outcomes would be a sizable upgrade over the Janish/Renteria black hole of suckitude.

This ^

:beerme:

TOBTTReds
06-19-2011, 11:07 PM
.800+ would be quite a feat, but I definitely agree about him having some solid pop. I've watched quite a few Bats game this year, and Cozart's definitely a guy that can hit the ball hard when he wants to. I could see him approaching 20HR or so pretty frequently at GABP.

That's why I use that as his ceiling. It would be tremendous to have a SS that can field like him to OPS 800. When I think of his 800, I see .285/.340/.460. I'm not saying this year in the bigs, but at his peak.

TOBTTReds
06-19-2011, 11:09 PM
And I didn't realize we didn't have a homerun out of the shortstop position yet. It's really almost funny now.

Funny in a sick way.:explode:

Superdude
06-19-2011, 11:12 PM
That's why I use that as his ceiling. It would be tremendous to have a SS that can field like him to OPS 800. When I think of his 800, I see .285/.340/.460. I'm not saying this year in the bigs, but at his peak.

I really just hope he doesn't come up and hit .190 after a thread like this. We'd all have to come back and beg for TradeRumor's forgiveness. :laugh:

TOBTTReds
06-19-2011, 11:18 PM
I really just hope he doesn't come up and hit .190 after a thread like this. We'd all have to come back and beg for TradeRumor's forgiveness. :laugh:

I'm not saying this is what he does year in year out. This is his career year.

That's why it's his ceiling...if he never reaches what I think his ceiling is, it's because something went wrong :D

dougdirt
06-19-2011, 11:24 PM
Except the point of my reference was that too many times for me to count a prospect is overvalued as a potential replacement, so I don't get my hopes up much, esp. when the prospect has been knocking on the door for two years and has not been deemed "ready." I'm sure its just the Reds misevaluating.

Except that the prospect you chose to use as an example was far from knocking on the door to people who knew what to look at. And to be honest, Cozart wasn't exactly knocking on the door last year. He has an ok year for a shortstop, but this year has been incredibly better because he maintained his walk rate and cut his strikeout rate by about 30% while keeping his power.

Superdude
06-19-2011, 11:40 PM
That's why it's his ceiling...if he never reaches what I think his ceiling is, it's because something went wrong :D

Clearly. I don't think we've ever overestimated a prospects ability here. If a few player's would stop sandbagging and sabotaging our reputation every few years, more people would understand that. :D

edabbs44
06-20-2011, 07:57 AM
Ceiling?

Davis Ross has OPS'd .900 over mostly a full season.

I'm not saying Cozart is a special bat, but my lord, if things fall his way, over half a season, he could do far better than .725, it's just not THAT hard.

He asked for a reasonable ceiling.

Patrick Bateman
06-20-2011, 11:37 PM
He asked for a reasonable ceiling.

Well, he's probably just as likely to do .900 as he is .400 over an extended sample. You picked his likely worst floor and his worst ceiling, which isn't what a ceiling is.

WebScorpion
06-23-2011, 11:23 AM
You guys really crack me up. :laugh: This thread has everything from blaming Cast's will to win and/or Jocketty's competence to people with differing opinions on how to express their differing opinions. :D On the whole, I think the thread has a lot of insight though. It looks like Jocketty is just saying the politically correct thing, while probably trying to find a place (trade, injury, etc.) to put Renteria. I think Fay is right and we'll see Cozart soon. It would be nice if they'd give Zack the lion's share of starts, but I'm not certain how Mr. Baker will handle him. I don't think stolen bases or stolen base percentage tells you how good a player is at 'baserunning', that's something you have to observe currently and Zack is a fine baserunner. Zack has taken a while to adjust to each league as he's moved up...he takes his lumps, observes, listens, and learns and eventually he adjusts. He's currently OPSing .860 in AAA, so I'd expect maybe a .750ish OPS for the rest of the season. The big unknown IMO is our little Great American Small Park...it could add enough points to his SLG to make up for the expected drop in OBP, so who knows? That's why we play the game on the field. Let's enjoy watching him together, eh? The team is still struggling to find their stride and we're only 2 games out of first place, so the future's so bright :cool:. Pass me a beer please. :beerme: