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Brutus
06-19-2011, 03:21 PM
Though I am aware the Reds lead the NL in runs scored, and are third in baseball behind the Red Sox and Yankees, I am seeing no reason to believe that offense will survive, in its current construct, for the rest of the season.

I would like to put out a missing persons report for the Reds' offense that got most of those runs scored. Because it's been pretty hit-and-miss over the past month, and they're not scoring those runs nearly as often.

In the last 30 games, in fact, they're averaging just 4.3 runs per game. Amazingly, that's actually above NL average this year (which is just 4.1 runs per game), but I feel more than the average itself, it's indicative of an offense that is too reliant on a few key bats to perform to their ability.

In the macro, one could fairly say 4.8 runs per game is nothing to worry about. But does anyone believe the offense that scored those runs will exist the rest of the year? With Bruce's up and downs, Rolen's health concerns, the inconsistency from LF and the hole at SS, I just don't think the Reds' offense will sustain itself as being much above average.

I have, to this point, been OK with the deliberate approach at short, to see what may or may not manifest itself in the trade market. But I think the time is rapidly approaching, now that the pitching staff has stabilized, that the Reds begin to address a couple of positions either internally or externally.

If the Reds maintain 4.6 to 4.8 runs a game here forward, I'd say that's going to win them plenty of games. But that's the problem.. while 30 games might just be a limited sample relative to the entire season (i.e. a slump), I see it being more representative of an offense that has too many holes to continue as it was producing earlier.

So I say: find the missing offense or go get a new one--or at least some new parts.

kaldaniels
06-19-2011, 03:33 PM
Not pretty the past few days, but a lot of guys left on the basepaths. I predict......4.8 runs from here on out.

traderumor
06-19-2011, 06:38 PM
Though I am aware the Reds lead the NL in runs scored, and are third in baseball behind the Red Sox and Yankees, I am seeing no reason to believe that offense will survive, in its current construct, for the rest of the season.

I would like to put out a missing persons report for the Reds' offense that got most of those runs scored. Because it's been pretty hit-and-miss over the past month, and they're not scoring those runs nearly as often.

In the last 30 games, in fact, they're averaging just 4.3 runs per game. Amazingly, that's actually above NL average this year (which is just 4.1 runs per game), but I feel more than the average itself, it's indicative of an offense that is too reliant on a few key bats to perform to their ability.

In the macro, one could fairly say 4.8 runs per game is nothing to worry about. But does anyone believe the offense that scored those runs will exist the rest of the year? With Bruce's up and downs, Rolen's health concerns, the inconsistency from LF and the hole at SS, I just don't think the Reds' offense will sustain itself as being much above average.

I have, to this point, been OK with the deliberate approach at short, to see what may or may not manifest itself in the trade market. But I think the time is rapidly approaching, now that the pitching staff has stabilized, that the Reds begin to address a couple of positions either internally or externally.

If the Reds maintain 4.6 to 4.8 runs a game here forward, I'd say that's going to win them plenty of games. But that's the problem.. while 30 games might just be a limited sample relative to the entire season (i.e. a slump), I see it being more representative of an offense that has too many holes to continue as it was producing earlier.

So I say: find the missing offense or go get a new one--or at least some new parts.I had to check to make sure this post was from this year and not bumped from the same time last year. Rodney Dangerfield has nothing on the Reds offense.

Of course, it comes out in force any time they have a dry spell for a few games.

Will M
06-19-2011, 06:43 PM
there are two 'camps' here on the ORG. one who says the Reds offense is fine. their arguements seems straightfotward - looks at total runs scored. the 2nd camp's arguements includes things like inconsistency, great against scrubs but can't score against good pitchers, concerns regarding ceratin guy's health & the fact that the offense gets to play at GABP which makes it look better than it is. This arguement has been going on for a while. It seems that people who comment on this issue are usually strongly in one camp or the other. I'd be curious to here from anyone who has switched sides. Is all this talk actually convincing anyone to change their opinion?

Captain Hook
06-19-2011, 07:32 PM
I think the offense is fine but I also can't think of a good reason not to improve it if an opportunity presents itself.I don't think you sell the farm to fix the number one offense in the NL but it'd be foolish to think some things couldn't easily be improved.

Furcal will be available for next to nothing.So far this year he's been injured and has preformed well below league average at SS but I'm more interested in what he could do going forward.Looking at his career numbers I believe it's well within reason to predict that he'd be a clear upgrade for the Reds for next to nothing in prospects.He's not the long term answer for SS some would like but he could fill in nicely for the rest of this year.

Brutus
06-19-2011, 07:56 PM
I had to check to make sure this post was from this year and not bumped from the same time last year. Rodney Dangerfield has nothing on the Reds offense.

Of course, it comes out in force any time they have a dry spell for a few games.

A few games? As I said in my post... they're averaging 4.3 runs a game over the last 30 games. That's a bit more than a few -- it's nearly half the season.

Whether or not that's indicative of what will happen going forward is another story. But it's most certainly not a reaction because of a few games.

PuffyPig
06-19-2011, 08:55 PM
Though I am aware the Reds lead the NL in runs scored....../

...yet you choose to ignore it, in favour of the smaller sample size.

Caveat Emperor
06-19-2011, 09:04 PM
They're going to remain an inconsistent offense until they do something about the fact that they're basically giving away 3 outs every time through the batting order with the P / LF / SS combo.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-19-2011, 09:06 PM
Today's lineup was pretty weak, but luckily Cairo came through with a big one.

I agree that something should be done about the black holes at SS and LF. No reason not to try to improve a weak area.

Brutus
06-19-2011, 09:19 PM
...yet you choose to ignore it, in favour of the smaller sample size.

...past performances do not guarantee future results. You can cling to the overall number as long as you like, but the longer the Reds trend the other direction, the less it means much when determining whether the Reds need to upgrade certain positions.

At this point, it's just as likely the last 30 games are as descriptive of the team's offensive ability as the first 40 games.

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 09:23 PM
They're going to remain an inconsistent offense until they do something about the fact that they're basically giving away 3 outs every time through the batting order with the P / LF / SS combo.

The Reds are 10th in baseball in LF OBP (.331 VS .320 MLB LF average). .320 is also the MLB OBP overall average.

I think it is time to realize that LF hasn't been as bad as everyone seems to think it has been. SS has been horrific. LF? Not so much.

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 09:24 PM
...past performances do not guarantee future results. You can cling to the overall number as long as you like, but the longer the Reds trend the other direction, the less it means much when determining whether the Reds need to upgrade certain positions.

At this point, it's just as likely the last 30 games are as descriptive of the team's offensive ability as the first 40 games.

You don't have to take out the first 40, just take out the first 5.

reds44
06-19-2011, 09:25 PM
The Reds are 10th in baseball in LF OBP (.331 VS .320 MLB LF average). .320 is also the MLB OBP overall average.

I think it is time to realize that LF hasn't been as bad as everyone seems to think it has been. SS has been horrific. LF? Not so much.
SS is hands down more of a need than LF. I think the Reds could survive with a Heisey/Gomes platoon out there. SS is awful, though.

edabbs44
06-19-2011, 09:27 PM
SS is hands down more of a need than LF. I think the Reds could survive with a Heisey/Gomes platoon out there. SS is awful, though.

I think we agree. LF is definitely upgradeable, but much less of a need.

The "black hole" stuff is rubbish.

mth123
06-19-2011, 09:42 PM
We're talking offense here. The issue is really where the line-up needs to be upgraded as well as the positions. For me the glaring need is some one to hit in the 5th spot. Stubbs has been more than adequate leading off and Phillips is fine in the 2 hole. Bruce and Votto fill two thirds of the middle, but the catchers and Rolen need to be at the bottom IMO and even a new SS probably is going to be a bottom of the order guy. That leaves LF as the place to get that third member of the middle of the order. It may be true that Gomes & company are comparable to average production in LF, but they aren't good enough to hit 4th or 5th. Gomes can fill the bill against LHP I suppose, but he needs a platoon mate to do that job against RHP. Alonso and Hermida are posiibilities, but both are flawed as well. For me that is the reason to upgrade LF. If the team was made-up differently and somebody else could do that job, I'd be fine with Gomes, Heisey and a cast of thousands in left.

Next year, maybe Sappelt takes over and Mesoraco provides that extra mid-order bat, but in 2011, the mix just isn't right IMO.

traderumor
06-19-2011, 09:43 PM
A few games? As I said in my post... they're averaging 4.3 runs a game over the last 30 games. That's a bit more than a few -- it's nearly half the season.

Whether or not that's indicative of what will happen going forward is another story. But it's most certainly not a reaction because of a few games.

Nor did I say it was. My point was that the number of posters complaining about the offense is in direct proportion to the number of runs scored in recent games.

PuffyPig
06-19-2011, 09:52 PM
...past performances do not guarantee future results.

Then why, pray tell, are you suggesting their offense is a problem?

I'm assuming you are basing it on some sort of "past performance?

Or are you one of those "crystal ball" type of gypies.......

Or did you get a bunch of fortune cookies for Father's Day???????

Cunfuscious say "Red offence due for a fall"......

WVRedsFan
06-19-2011, 10:55 PM
One thing overlooked is that Stubbs, Phillips, Votto (for him), Bruce, and Rolen have been in little slumps lately. That's over half the lineup. That's going to change sooner or later and things will get back to normal. With the exception of Votto and Rolen, that's the norm. I just wish they wouldn't all slump at the same time.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-19-2011, 11:07 PM
Phillips is in a pretty big slump.

RedsManRick
06-20-2011, 12:00 AM
As I am want to do, I decided to check out some data.



2011 2010 OPS Difference
C .286/.368/.414 .781 .296/.375/.429 .804 -.023
1B .316/.439/.504 .942 .327/.420/.599 1.018 -.076
2B .274/.329/.382 .711 .274/.328/.425 .753 -.042
SS .228/.275/.267 .542 .266/.314/.366 .681 -.139
3B .254/.309/.384 .693 .284/.358/.466 .824 -.131
LF .234/.331/.392 .723 .275/.335/.441 .776 -.053
CF .256/.331/.415 .747 .253/.326/.426 .752 -.005
RF .282/.353/.514 .867 .267/.336/.469 .805 +.062
PH .330/.384/.455 .838 .236/.306/.410 .716 +.122
P .158/.170/.216 .386 .175/.201/.224 .425 -.039

The biggest drop in offense from last year is SS, as we've all discussed. But right on the heels of that is 3B. In 2011, 3B was the 2nd most productive position offensively. This year it's 7th. Rolen's absence/weak hitting has really hurt. But even then, the 3rd biggest decline? Votto.

Basically, only Bruce is hitting better than last year. Our team wOBA is down from .339 (1st) to .326 (4th).

That all said, I'm not terribly concerned. The team has scored runs and I see absolutely no reason why it shouldn't continue to do so. Nobody is overperforming and a number of positions are significantly underperforming. I'd be shocked if we didn't finish the season top 3 in runs in the NL.

No, this team isn't an offensive juggernaut. But it will be just fine on that side of the ball. The success or failure of this team is going to be whether or not the recent spat of great pitching can continue.

Brutus
06-20-2011, 12:10 AM
Then why, pray tell, are you suggesting their offense is a problem?

I'm assuming you are basing it on some sort of "past performance?

Or are you one of those "crystal ball" type of gypies.......

Or did you get a bunch of fortune cookies for Father's Day???????

Cunfuscious say "Red offence due for a fall"......

What I'm doing, unlike you, is differentiating what's happened with what could happen going forward. You've been taking the attitude that because they've scored 4.8 runs per game this year, therefore they're likely to be just fine.

On the contrary, I've left open the possibility that we don't know for sure, but it might be time to admit there are in fact places that need upgrading and that the offense is becoming a problem. People can only hang on to that RPG for so long before it becomes obvious that a sample is more like a trend.

Patrick Bateman
06-20-2011, 01:20 AM
What I'm doing, unlike you, is differentiating what's happened with what could happen going forward. You've been taking the attitude that because they've scored 4.8 runs per game this year, therefore they're likely to be just fine.

On the contrary, I've left open the possibility that we don't know for sure, but it might be time to admit there are in fact places that need upgrading and that the offense is becoming a problem. People can only hang on to that RPG for so long before it becomes obvious that a sample is more like a trend.

Saying "likely" is not closing down the door on other possibilities like you are suggesting.

You simply disagree with the chance of the different probablities.

Just because there is a differing opinion it doesn't mean the other side is narrow minded.

Brutus
06-20-2011, 02:20 AM
Saying "likely" is not closing down the door on other possibilities like you are suggesting.

You simply disagree with the chance of the different probablities.

Just because there is a differing opinion it doesn't mean the other side is narrow minded.

I qualified my point of view pretty broadly, and was met with this...


...yet you choose to ignore it, in favour of the smaller sample size.

I'd say that is either a narrow view or a really elusive point.

But as much as I enjoy debating in this group-think, I'll just leave my point as was... the Reds' offense has been trending the wrong direction for more than a month now, and the longer we go with the downward trend the less likely it is that the concerns are unfounded, in spite of the inflated RPG number that's a product of a few really hot weeks.

PuffyPig
06-20-2011, 08:37 AM
I qualified my point of view pretty broadly, and was met with this...



I'd say that is either a narrow view or a really elusive point.

But as much as I enjoy debating in this group-think, I'll just leave my point as was... the Reds' offense has been trending the wrong direction for more than a month now, and the longer we go with the downward trend the less likely it is that the concerns are unfounded, in spite of the inflated RPG number that's a product of a few really hot weeks.

I suggest that if you take out the "coldest two weeks" you'd find that there isn't a downward trend.

Look, you can always improve any part of a ball club.

But the offense hasn't been the problem.

traderumor
06-20-2011, 12:55 PM
I suggest that if you take out the "coldest two weeks" you'd find that there isn't a downward trend.

Look, you can always improve any part of a ball club.

But the offense hasn't been the problem.

That is my position as well. Plus, will improving the offense require anything from our weakness (pitching) to acquire it?

Brutus
06-20-2011, 09:22 PM
Bumping this 'cuz, well, Ivan Nova has limited them to just one run on three hits thus far.

Yes, the same Ivan Nova with a 4.56 K/9 and 3.96 BB/9. The same Ivan Nova who ranks below only Brad Penny among all major league pitchers right now at missing bats (as measured by Swinging strike %).

Yes, this offense is not going the right direction.

RedsManRick
06-20-2011, 09:40 PM
It almost seemed like they were on autopilot tonight, only things didn't go according to plan. Like they watched the video and decided they would tee off on his curveball and when he kept throwing it a foot outside and in front of the plate they refused to adjust. Nearly all the righties were chasing that thing relentlessly all night.

Mario-Rijo
06-20-2011, 09:48 PM
Question: Is the offense subpar if all or nearly all individuals are all playing below their ability? Seems to me there are 2 different discussions going on here.

mth123
06-20-2011, 10:28 PM
Question: Is the offense subpar if all or nearly all individuals are all playing below their ability? Seems to me there are 2 different discussions going on here.

Who? Votto high .900s. Bruce high .800s. Stubbs mid .700s. Rolen and Phillips might improve a lttle, but not much. Mid to high .700s for both of them. Hernandez is actually well above where he belongs. Hanigan may jump 50 points or so. Everybody else is playing about as expected. I don't see the upside. Bruce will have another hot streak and the team will score a bunch when it happens, but I'm not seeing this bunch as underperforming much.

Kc61
06-20-2011, 10:29 PM
Reds have two walks this homestand.

Just saying.

Captain Hook
06-20-2011, 10:40 PM
Reds have two walks this homestand.

Just saying.

They have only 1 win with the pitching allowing just 3.25 runs during those four games.

Kc61
06-20-2011, 10:46 PM
Shake up the lineup tomorrow.

Lewis LF
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Hernandez C
Stubbs CF
Renteria SS
Cueto P

If you won't make trades, you won't bring up new guys from AAA, then at least shake up the lineup. Lewis is hitting. Lead him off. Stubbs is fanning with reckless abandon. Drop him down. Get Razor in there, he's hitting. Move Votto to cleanup. Change things around.

OldXOhio
06-20-2011, 11:13 PM
Shake up the lineup tomorrow.

Lewis LF
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Hernandez C
Stubbs CF
Renteria SS
Cueto P

If you won't make trades, you won't bring up new guys from AAA, then at least shake up the lineup. Lewis is hitting. Lead him off. Stubbs is fanning with reckless abandon. Drop him down. Get Razor in there, he's hitting. Move Votto to cleanup. Change things around.

I don't know...could disrupt team chemistry.

CrackerJack
06-21-2011, 01:14 AM
I don't know...could disrupt team chemistry.

Feelings could be hurt.

fearofpopvol1
06-21-2011, 02:36 AM
As I am want to do, I decided to check out some data.



2011 2010 OPS Difference
C .286/.368/.414 .781 .296/.375/.429 .804 -.023
1B .316/.439/.504 .942 .327/.420/.599 1.018 -.076
2B .274/.329/.382 .711 .274/.328/.425 .753 -.042
SS .228/.275/.267 .542 .266/.314/.366 .681 -.139
3B .254/.309/.384 .693 .284/.358/.466 .824 -.131
LF .234/.331/.392 .723 .275/.335/.441 .776 -.053
CF .256/.331/.415 .747 .253/.326/.426 .752 -.005
RF .282/.353/.514 .867 .267/.336/.469 .805 +.062
PH .330/.384/.455 .838 .236/.306/.410 .716 +.122
P .158/.170/.216 .386 .175/.201/.224 .425 -.039

The biggest drop in offense from last year is SS, as we've all discussed. But right on the heels of that is 3B. In 2011, 3B was the 2nd most productive position offensively. This year it's 7th. Rolen's absence/weak hitting has really hurt. But even then, the 3rd biggest decline? Votto.

Basically, only Bruce is hitting better than last year. Our team wOBA is down from .339 (1st) to .326 (4th).

That all said, I'm not terribly concerned. The team has scored runs and I see absolutely no reason why it shouldn't continue to do so. Nobody is overperforming and a number of positions are significantly underperforming. I'd be shocked if we didn't finish the season top 3 in runs in the NL.

No, this team isn't an offensive juggernaut. But it will be just fine on that side of the ball. The success or failure of this team is going to be whether or not the recent spat of great pitching can continue.

I was going to say...3B is a big problem. Even though the defense has been great, the offensive production dropoff has been a big blow.

I think I'd bring Cozart up and stick him at SS and DFA Renteria.

Even though I am concerned about the defense, I'm coming around to the idea of sticking Alonso in LF. His bat could be very useful in the lineup.

mth123
06-21-2011, 06:03 AM
As I am want to do, I decided to check out some data.



2011 2010 OPS Difference
C .286/.368/.414 .781 .296/.375/.429 .804 -.023
1B .316/.439/.504 .942 .327/.420/.599 1.018 -.076
2B .274/.329/.382 .711 .274/.328/.425 .753 -.042
SS .228/.275/.267 .542 .266/.314/.366 .681 -.139
3B .254/.309/.384 .693 .284/.358/.466 .824 -.131
LF .234/.331/.392 .723 .275/.335/.441 .776 -.053
CF .256/.331/.415 .747 .253/.326/.426 .752 -.005
RF .282/.353/.514 .867 .267/.336/.469 .805 +.062
PH .330/.384/.455 .838 .236/.306/.410 .716 +.122
P .158/.170/.216 .386 .175/.201/.224 .425 -.039

The biggest drop in offense from last year is SS, as we've all discussed. But right on the heels of that is 3B. In 2011, 3B was the 2nd most productive position offensively. This year it's 7th. Rolen's absence/weak hitting has really hurt. But even then, the 3rd biggest decline? Votto.

Basically, only Bruce is hitting better than last year. Our team wOBA is down from .339 (1st) to .326 (4th).

That all said, I'm not terribly concerned. The team has scored runs and I see absolutely no reason why it shouldn't continue to do so. Nobody is overperforming and a number of positions are significantly underperforming. I'd be shocked if we didn't finish the season top 3 in runs in the NL.

No, this team isn't an offensive juggernaut. But it will be just fine on that side of the ball. The success or failure of this team is going to be whether or not the recent spat of great pitching can continue.

This was all pretty predictable. Votto had awesome numbers and was due for a bit of a drop. Hanigan same way. Rolen's second half made it pretty clear that his shoulder would cause a drop. Its pretty clear over Janish career in both the majors and minors that we couldn't expect much from SS. The increase from Bruce and Stubbs saying about the same were also predictable. Rolen has dropped even more than expected and the drop from Phillips is more than expected. I'd expect a bit of a rebound from both, but its been obvious since late 2010 that another bat was needed. The drop at catcher will probably end up bigger. Ramon is still doing way better than we should expect.

Add the idea of entering the season with so many injury and short resume questions in the rotation and I think this front office earned the "D" that I gave them over the winter. Only Bruce' extension prevents last winter from being an "F".

Tony Cloninger
06-21-2011, 10:33 AM
Who hired these advance scouts? Mike Brown?

bucksfan2
06-21-2011, 12:00 PM
Who hired these advance scouts? Mike Brown?

You can advance scout all you want. But it all comes down to the players executing the game plan. Last night it was disturbing how many quick outs the batters made. The Reds would start an inning and 2 pitches later already had an out.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-21-2011, 02:56 PM
You can advance scout all you want. But it all comes down to the players executing the game plan. Last night it was disturbing how many quick outs the batters made. The Reds would start an inning and 2 pitches later already had an out.

Or two outs :(

bucksfan2
06-21-2011, 03:22 PM
Or two outs :(

Its embarrassing but it happens from time to time. The problem with the Reds is its happening for entire home stands in this situation and series when you look back to the Pittsburgh series earlier this year. They go into a funk and give away too many outs.

membengal
06-22-2011, 03:02 PM
This offense is a senseless terror right now.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-22-2011, 03:18 PM
This offense is a senseless terror right now.

Why is Brook Jacoby's job seemingly never questioned? I know the Reds lead in runs scored, but so what? That doesn't begin to tell the whole ugly story. This offense is as dysfunctional as it gets.

The Indians canned their hitting coach and they're a first-place team.

Brutus
06-22-2011, 03:43 PM
This offense is a senseless terror right now.

It's going nowhere, and fast.

I honestly can't believe there are still people who believe that because they lead the NL in runs, they're OK.

This offense isn't very good on the whole. Perhaps they're better than they're showing right now, but they're not a great offense. They're a decent offense that could stand immediate improvements at a couple positions.

This team, as is, won't be getting it done. The good news is that they don't need a drastic overhaul, but they need help. I'm finally on board with doing what it takes to get it. Whether it's trade or simply promoting from within, it's time for some new blood.

RedsManRick
06-22-2011, 03:54 PM
It's going nowhere, and fast.

I honestly can't believe there are still people who believe that because they lead the NL in runs, they're OK.

This offense isn't very good on the whole. Perhaps they're better than they're showing right now, but they're not a great offense. They're a decent offense that could stand immediate improvements at a couple positions.

This team, as is, won't be getting it done. The good news is that they don't need a drastic overhaul, but they need help. I'm finally on board with doing what it takes to get it. Whether it's trade or simply promoting from within, it's time for some new blood.

I honestly can't believe that some people put more faith in the smaller sample (last 30 days) instead of the larger one (season to date) despite that there has not been any significant change in the composition of the team. I'll ask the simple question: If the offense isn't very good, that is, likely to continue to be mediocre at best moving forward, how are we leading the league in runs scored? Which players played out of their minds for 2 months and are now falling back to earth? Are none of the players who have struggled this year expected to perform better?

I'm all for bringing up Cozart and Sappelt/Alonso, but the sky is falling act is overdoing it. Everything we know about the true talent of this offense says it should be among the best in the NL. A slump doesn't change that.



AVG OBP SLG
Apr .262 .337 .419
May .260 .330 .392
Jun .258 .329 .366

Our slugging is down, otherwise pretty similar. Slugging, particularly homers, is the most variable part of a team's offense. Slumps happen. I see no reason to expect this team to keep slugging .366 moving forward.

LoganBuck
06-22-2011, 04:01 PM
I just want a change. Some change. Any change. This team needs a jolt.

Brutus
06-22-2011, 04:16 PM
I honestly can't believe that some people put more faith in the smaller sample (last 30 days) instead of the larger one (season to date) despite that there has not been any significant change in the composition of the team. I'll ask the simple question: If the offense isn't very good, that is, likely to continue to be mediocre at best moving forward, how are we leading the league in runs scored? Which players played out of their minds for 2 months and are now falling back to earth? Are none of the players who have struggled this year expected to perform better?

I'm all for bringing up Cozart and Sappelt/Alonso, but the sky is falling act is overdoing it. Everything we know about the true talent of this offense says it should be among the best in the NL. A slump doesn't change that.



AVG OBP SLG
Apr .262 .337 .419
May .260 .330 .392
Jun .258 .329 .366

Our slugging is down, otherwise pretty similar. Slugging, particularly homers, is the most variable part of a team's offense. Slumps happen. I see no reason to expect this team to keep slugging .366 moving forward.

What happened in the first 30-40 games seems no more indicative of this team's offense than what's been happening in the 30-35 games since. When you get into a 35-game sample for a team, I think it's time to recognize this goes beyond just a "slump."

There are some fundamental issues that absolutely need addressed with this team.

For starters, people forget that last year, when Bruce would go through his monumental ups and downs, the Reds had Rolen in the middle of the order to bail out the team for much of the first four months. This year, they have no one to come up with those hits consistently.

Second, the production they were getting from the catchers was obviously going to come crashing back to earth sooner or later, and it has been doing just that.

Third, the Reds right now have automatic outs pretty much at two separate positions. Add in the fact Bruce is doing another one of his high-wire, disappearing acts and Brandon Phillips' power hasn't been showing up this season, suddenly the offense really isn't that formidable.

I think the realistic expectation of this offense is one that puts it around league average or slightly above. You can't be one of the best offenses in the league when you have two automatic outs and your second-best hitter go dormant for 2 out of 3 months into the season.

SirFelixCat
06-22-2011, 05:25 PM
I just want a change. Some change. Any change. This team needs a jolt.

Seriously. The lack of offense is just brutal to watch.

RedsManRick
06-22-2011, 10:08 PM
You can't be one of the best offenses in the league when you have two automatic outs and your second-best hitter go dormant for 2 out of 3 months into the season.

Actually, you can. Despite 2 automatic outs and our 2nd best hitter in funk more often than not, we actually have been the best offense in the league. Your assertion is based on the idea that the good stuff wasn't real but the bad stuff is. It's all real. It all counts. And it has combined to put us with more runs than anybody else in the National League.

If the offense continues to do what it has done this month (prior to tonight), it will certainly not continue to lead the league in scoring. But you cannot and have not made a reasonable case that our July level of production is what we should expect moving forward. And if our season-to-date rates of performance more or less continue, we will continue to score more runs than most, if not all, of the National League.

Brutus
06-22-2011, 10:33 PM
Actually, you can. Despite 2 automatic outs and our 2nd best hitter in funk more often than not, we actually have been the best offense in the league. Your assertion is based on the idea that the good stuff wasn't real but the bad stuff is. It's all real. It all counts. And it has combined to put us with more runs than anybody else in the National League.

If the offense continues to do what it has done this month (prior to tonight), it will certainly not continue to lead the league in scoring. But you cannot and have not made a reasonable case that our July level of production is what we should expect moving forward. And if our season-to-date rates of performance more or less continue, we will continue to score more runs than most, if not all, of the National League.

No, my assertion is that the real ability is closer to what we've seen the second half of the year than it was the first. This is not something new. I felt this way late last year, in the playoffs, in the offseason and even when the Reds were tearing the cover off the ball. I never felt the Reds would continue because of Rolen's age & health, Bruce's inconsistency, the shortstop position that likely wouldn't get much production and the catcher production was bound to fall off at some point.

We saw the last couple weeks of the season last year and in the playoffs that this offense, as is, wasn't quite what it needed to be. But for some reason, people are under the illusion, thanks mostly to a hot April, that this offense is fine. It's not a bad offense, but it's not a great one either.

Honestly, I'm not sure what kind of analysis it is to say a team leads the league in runs. That's most certainly not worked for the Reds the past month. They're losing games because they're not scoring. And again, they haven't been an above average offense since the end of April. By your own numbers, May was just barely above average for team OPS this year in the Majors and May & June combined are well below average. The comprises nearly 2/3 of the season thus far. So for 1/3 they were torrid, for 2/3 they've been below average.

Translation: they really could use some help.

traderumor
06-22-2011, 10:44 PM
No, my assertion is that the real ability is closer to what we've seen the second half of the year than it was the first. This is not something new. I felt this way late last year, in the playoffs, in the offseason and even when the Reds were tearing the cover off the ball. I never felt the Reds would continue because of Rolen's age & health, Bruce's inconsistency, the shortstop position that likely wouldn't get much production and the catcher production was bound to fall off at some point.

We saw the last couple weeks of the season last year and in the playoffs that this offense, as is, wasn't quite what it needed to be. But for some reason, people are under the illusion, thanks mostly to a hot April, that this offense is fine. It's not a bad offense, but it's not a great one either.

Honestly, I'm not sure what kind of analysis it is to say a team leads the league in runs. That's most certainly not worked for the Reds the past month. They're losing games because they're not scoring. And again, they haven't been an above average offense since the end of April. By your own numbers, May was just barely above average for team OPS this year in the Majors and May & June combined are well below average. The comprises nearly 2/3 of the season thus far. So for 1/3 they were torrid, for 2/3 they've been below average.

Translation: they really could use some help.

Runs per game. I think it is because runs is the name of the game on offense. It is what it is, esp. over 1-1/2 seasons now. Play all the "blowout" or "hot streak/cold streak" games you want to try to prove your presupposition, but we're talking about a track record now. You want more wins, get better starting pitching. Last year it was good enough to be league average and the offense was top of the league, so they won 90 games. This year it has only recently been acceptable. If you want to keep on saying the same thing over and over, I guess I can to.

Brutus
06-22-2011, 10:59 PM
Runs per game. I think it is because runs is the name of the game on offense. It is what it is, esp. over 1-1/2 seasons now. Play all the "blowout" or "hot streak/cold streak" games you want to try to prove your presupposition, but we're talking about a track record now. You want more wins, get better starting pitching. Last year it was good enough to be league average and the offense was top of the league, so they won 90 games. This year it has only recently been acceptable. If you want to keep on saying the same thing over and over, I guess I can to.

All that tells us is that over that period of time, they had the most runs. It doesn't tell us they were the best offense or that they'll continue scoring that many runs.

When 2/3 of the season, they've had a below average offense, wouldn't you say that's more indicative than the really hot 1/3 that is skewing the average?

Look at Rick's OBP/SLG numbers. Right now Cincinnati has a .728 OPS which is 10th in the Majors. April was absurdly higher (35 points) than May, while 2/3 of June has been lower (27 points). May, meanwhile, was a .722 OPS. Even if we split the difference, and assume May is about where they should be, they're an offense in the middle of the pack.

Which is practically what I've been saying -- that they're about an average to slightly above average offense, and could use another bat or two.

Not sure how that's a wildly crazy concept.

traderumor
06-22-2011, 11:14 PM
All that tells us is that over that period of time, they had the most runs. It doesn't tell us they were the best offense or that they'll continue scoring that many runs.

When 2/3 of the season, they've had a below average offense, wouldn't you say that's more indicative than the really hot 1/3 that is skewing the average?

Look at Rick's OBP/SLG numbers. Right now Cincinnati has a .728 OPS which is 10th in the Majors. April was absurdly higher (35 points) than May, while 2/3 of June has been lower (27 points). May, meanwhile, was a .722 OPS. Even if we split the difference, and assume May is about where they should be, they're an offense in the middle of the pack.

Which is practically what I've been saying -- that they're about an average to slightly above average offense, and could use another bat or two.

Not sure how that's a wildly crazy concept.We're nearly halfway through the season. I'm sure the last few days drug June's average down, but the trend was 5.2 RPG in April, 4.6 in May and 4.8 in June. I don't think the April was good enough to still be "skewing" the RPG and still leading the league.

You may not think the offense is producing on all cylinders, but it has maintained its ranking through half the season. Again, good offensive numbers over a short period of time isn't going to produce the results.

A problem I see in your reasoning is that you think the Reds offense should produce more, and use the current trend to highlight your presupposition. When people point out that enough games have been played to eliminate "skewing," you ignore it and say "I want more offensive production, dangit."

Personally, I want more wins, and pitching is the way to that. I guess I could concede that more offense might be the short term fix and only available solution for more wins this season, but the real issue with the franchise is starting pitching.

kaldaniels
06-22-2011, 11:28 PM
Who are the best 3 offenses in the NL and why Brutus?

RedsManRick
06-22-2011, 11:47 PM
No, my assertion is that the real ability is closer to what we've seen the second half of the year than it was the first. This is not something new. I felt this way late last year, in the playoffs, in the offseason and even when the Reds were tearing the cover off the ball. I never felt the Reds would continue because of Rolen's age & health, Bruce's inconsistency, the shortstop position that likely wouldn't get much production and the catcher production was bound to fall off at some point.

I don't care how you feel or felt. Reality says that the Reds have had the best offense in the NL this year. That the tough times stand out for you emotionally does not convince me that somehow those games are more predictive than good ones.



We saw the last couple weeks of the season last year and in the playoffs that this offense, as is, wasn't quite what it needed to be. But for some reason, people are under the illusion, thanks mostly to a hot April, that this offense is fine. It's not a bad offense, but it's not a great one either.

Even the best offenses don't score 5 runs a game every day. They slump, sometimes in the playoffs -- especially against great pitching. I say you're under the illusion, because of a bad series against the Phillies last October and the last few weeks, that the offense isn't up to snuff.



Honestly, I'm not sure what kind of analysis it is to say a team leads the league in runs. That's most certainly not worked for the Reds the past month. They're losing games because they're not scoring. And again, they haven't been an above average offense since the end of April. By your own numbers, May was just barely above average for team OPS this year in the Majors and May & June combined are well below average. The comprises nearly 2/3 of the season thus far. So for 1/3 they were torrid, for 2/3 they've been below average.

The 1/3, 2/3 split is not significant. That's called variation. It happens and that's what it looks like. Random does not mean heads, tails, heads, tails, etc. Even at the team level, a month isn't that much time. Over the last month the Reds have scored 4.25 R/G. That's above average in the NL for the year. And that's when they've struggled.

They're losing games because they're being outscored. Some of that is offense. Some of it's pitching. Could the offense "use some help"? Sure. So could the pitching staff. And so could the offense and pitching staff of every single team in baseball. As for idea that they've hit the skids as a team because of offensive struggles, it's a function of how you'd like to select your end points. The Reds were 14-13 in April, 14-15 in May and 10-8 in June.

For me, it's come down to this. In trying to project a team's performance from this point forward, and absent a major roster shakeup (injury, etc.), performance over the last 2.5 months is more informative than performance over the last 1.5 months and a playoff series last October. You're trying to find a narrative that just isn't there, a signal in the noise.



W-L RS/G RA/G
April 14-13 5.3 4.5
May 14-15 4.6 4.9
June 10-8 4.3 3.4

The observed offensive decline is no more indicative of a team regressing towards to a new talent level than is our pitching performance variation indicative of a staff that was mediocre, then really bad and then suddenly got really good. No single month or pair of months is more important than all 3 combined. Talent doesn't change that quickly, performance does. And talent is what drives future performance.

The team has averaged 4.8 R/G this year and a comparably composed offense scored 4.9 runs last year. I see no reason to expect that same group to produce half a run less per game moving forward. Add Cozart. Add Sappelt. Trade for Matt Kemp. I'm game for all of those. But if that doesn't happen, our reasonable expectation should be an offense that produces closer to our yearly average than that of the just the last 7 weeks.

Brutus
06-23-2011, 12:23 AM
I don't care how you feel or felt. Reality says that the Reds have had the best offense in the NL this year. That the tough times stand out for you emotionally does not convince me that somehow those games are more predictive than good ones.


Even the best offenses don't score 5 runs a game every day. They slump, sometimes in the playoffs -- especially against great pitching. I say you're under the illusion, because of a bad series against the Phillies last October and the last few weeks, that the offense isn't up to snuff.

Forgive me for thinking that the offensive production is a good indicator of offensive production... Over the last month the Reds have scored 4.25 R/G. That's above average in the NL for the year. And that's when they've struggled.

They're losing games because they're being outscored. Some of that is offense. Some of it's pitching. Could the offense "use some help"? Sure. So could the pitching staff. And so could the offense and pitching staff of every single team in baseball. As for idea that they've hit the skids as a team because of offensive struggles, it's a function of how you'd like to select your end points. The Reds were 14-13 in April, 14-15 in May and 10-8 in June.

For me, it's come down to this. In trying to project a team's performance from this point forward, and absent a major roster shakeup (injury, etc.), performance over the last 2.5 months is more informative than performance over the last 1.5 months and a playoff series last October. You're trying to find a narrative that just isn't there, a signal in the noise.



W-L RS/G RA/G
April 14-13 5.3 4.5
May 14-15 4.6 4.9
June 10-8 4.3 3.4

The observed offensive decline is no more indicative of a team regressing towards to a new talent level than is our pitching performance variation indicative of a staff that was mediocre, then really bad and then suddenly got really good. No single month or pair of months is more important than all 3 combined. Talent doesn't change that quickly, performance does. And talent is what drives future performance.

The team has averaged 4.8 R/G this year and a comparably composed offense scored 4.9 runs last year. I see no reason to expect half a run less per game moving forward.

Aren't we all discussing what this team projects going forward? We just have differences of opinion as to what is the most important indicators.

We're all looking at the same numbers. Some of us just believe averages in a smaller sample (i.e. less than half a season) are made up of hot & cold streaks, and when those streaks are extreme, it's hard to determine which are more indicative than others. If we meet in the middle and assume May is the average (.722 team OPS), since the other two months are pretty extreme on either end, that team OPS is in the middle of the pack in the majors, a little above average (which has been my contention all along).

So how does that not meet my narrative? I've said several times in this thread that I believe they're an average or slightly above average offense. Given there's been a month they were really hot, a month (or going on a month) really cold and a month in the middle, am I really off-base for assuming the median?

If anyone truly wants to project what they're likely to do going forward, a snapshot of 70 games might not be, in itself, the best method of doing so anyhow. Merely taking each player's 3-year OPS, multiplying it by the percentage of PA's received this year, and aggregating the sum for the entire team would give a rough estimate of what the 'true' offensive ability is of this group. To their credit, they'd be projected (pitchers included) with roughly a .730-.740 team OPS, which is probably the neighborhood you expect. My contention is that is a fair estimate, but with Rolen's likelihood to finish below his 3-year averages and the utter despair SS is right now (even worse than Renteria & Janish over the past 3 years), I would anticipate .725 being more closely resembling what to expect going forward.

And that leaves me, once again, with the same belief I've had all along... slightly above average.