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OnBaseMachine
06-20-2011, 04:58 PM
From Danny Knobler of CBSSports:

No surprise, but I hear Reds are searching for starting pitchers they could trade for before the July 31 deadline

http://twitter.com/DKnobler

In another tweet he mentions Jeremy Guthrie as a guy the Reds like. Guthrie isn't a bad pitcher but he isn't really an upgrade over what the Reds already have. We need a true ace.

AmarilloRed
06-20-2011, 05:07 PM
Another person in the blog had a tweet about Jonathan Sanchez if the Giants could get some hitting.

traderumor
06-20-2011, 05:23 PM
Another person in the blog had a tweet about Jonathan Sanchez if the Giants could get some hitting.In the immortal words of Michael Gary Scott: "NO, GOD! NO, GOD, PLEASE, NO! NO! NO! NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

reds44
06-20-2011, 05:26 PM
40% of our rotation has ERA's over 5 right now. An ace would be nice, but even if you assume Bailey is healthy and good (and that's a stretch), the Reds could still use another solid arm.

SS should be the obivous #1 priority, though.

The Voice of IH
06-20-2011, 05:35 PM
Shortstop and Left Field. Its the offense stupid!

Continue...

The Reds have a GREAT rotation that is starting to show its true form. The Reds have had a top five staff in the last half month.

CTA513
06-20-2011, 05:45 PM
Another person in the blog had a tweet about Jonathan Sanchez if the Giants could get some hitting.

Good arm, but like Volquez he walks a ton of batters.

pahster
06-20-2011, 05:53 PM
Shortstop and Left Field. Its the offense stupid!

Continue...

The Reds have a GREAT rotation that is starting to show its true form. The Reds have had a top five staff in the last half month.

The Reds are third in the majors in (most) runs scored and 9th in (most) runs allowed. While upgrading the offense would be nice, it's pretty obvious that the Reds should prioritize pitching because there's a lot more room to improve.

I(heart)Freel
06-20-2011, 05:59 PM
To me, it has to be a hammer or it doesn't make much sense.

Liriano I know is inconsistent, but when he's on, he's that. Having said that, I don't know if he's suited to GABP or not.

The other issue is that the Twins have to fall out of the race before this deal could even think about happening. Would be a deadline week deal, at the earliest.

Brutus
06-20-2011, 06:04 PM
I don't believe the Reds should invest in resources for a pitcher unless it's a clear ace, and there don't seem to be any of those laying around.

That said, I think the Reds should inquire on John Danks. He got off to a slow start, but is starting to pitch well and being a lefty with terrific control, he might be a good fit in Cincinnati. The White Sox are kind of in neutral right now, so I suspect he could be had.

VR
06-20-2011, 06:19 PM
Reds pitching now at 3.16 for June.

In 17 games....here are the runs they've given up,

11 - once
9- once
4- 4 times
3- 3 times
2- 5 times
1- 2 times
0- 1 times.

Those 2 Dodger games at the start of the month were ugly....since then they have an earnie under 2.50.

A very nice turn of events.

RedsManRick
06-20-2011, 06:31 PM
Yeah, we definitely need another mid-rotation at best starter...........

edabbs44
06-20-2011, 06:33 PM
What if Guthrie is a replacement for Wood, where Wood gets dealt in a larger deal for a bat? Or bigger arm?

Benihana
06-20-2011, 07:02 PM
I've talked about Guthrie on other threads before, and I could see the Reds making a run at him. I'm sure the O's would ask for Alonso coming back, which seems steep for a rental of Guthrie's caliber, so hopefully they'd settle for less.

The Reds could do much worse than bringing in a reliable pitcher who has posted a sub 4 ERA pitching in the AL East 4 of the last 5 years. He would certainly be an improvement on the dreck coming out of the Volquez/Wood starts. This could be like the David Wells trade 16 years later.

EDIT: According to BR Guthrie, despite being 32 years old, is eligible for arbitration and not free agency next season. Therefore Alonso would be a reasonable price for him, especially if Baltimore sent some cash back in return. Luke Scott is another piece that might be available and could interest the Reds.

Yonder Alonso and Fred Lewis for Jeremy Guthrie and Luke Scott (and hopefully some cash). What say you?

Benihana
06-20-2011, 07:04 PM
Maybe they'd take Ramon Hernandez back ;)

Guacarock
06-20-2011, 07:13 PM
A 2010 scouting report on Jeremy Guthrie from the blog LONG LIVE SHEA STADIUM:

http://longlivesheastadium.blogspot.com/2010/06/scouting-report-rhp-jeremy-guthrie.html

And here's a 2009 Fangraphs scouting report on Jonathan Sanchez:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/scouting-jonathan-sanchez/

Guacarock
06-20-2011, 07:34 PM
Maybe they'd take Ramon Hernandez back ;)

The Giants would want Razor given their anemic offense and catching problems with Posey out.

But the Orioles couldn't use Hernandez as they're well set with Wieters behind the plate. Their needs: a 1B (Alonso?) and young starting pitching (Wood?, Volquez?) Obviously, Guthrie alone couldn't net them that kind of haul. But if they added SS J.J. Hardy to the deal as well, and gave the Reds an opportunity to talk contract extensions with those players, perhaps....

Guacarock
06-20-2011, 07:44 PM
Giants identify catching as their top priority, and might be angling to acquire the Brewers' backup Kottaras:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/06/catching-top-priority-for-giants-kottaras-available.html

jojo
06-20-2011, 07:47 PM
Eric. Bedard.

Benihana
06-20-2011, 07:56 PM
The Giants would want Razor given their anemic offense and catching problems with Posey out.

But the Orioles couldn't use Hernandez as they're well set with Wieters behind the plate. Their needs: a 1B (Alonso?) and young starting pitching (Wood?, Volquez?) Obviously, Guthrie alone couldn't net them that kind of haul. But if they added SS J.J. Hardy to the deal as well, and gave the Reds an opportunity to talk contract extensions with those players, perhaps....

I was joking about Hernandez.

If I traded Alonso and Wood or Volquez, I'd want Guthrie, Hardy, Scott, and the O's to cover most or all of the remaining money in the deal.

Benihana
06-20-2011, 07:57 PM
Eric. Bedard.

Perfect. How about for Votto and Bailey?

jojo
06-20-2011, 07:58 PM
Perfect. How about for Votto and Bailey?

Who would seriously suggest that?

Will M
06-20-2011, 08:02 PM
I was joking about Hernandez.

If I traded Alonso and Wood or Volquez, I'd want Guthrie, Hardy, Scott, and the O's to cover most or all of the remaining money in the deal.

I suspect the Reds won't spend much cash to upgrade the team. So if they could swing a deal for Guthrie &/or Hardy they would include better prospects and have the O's pay the salaries coming our way. Its what we did when we traded Dunn only the 'better prospects' we got back ended up being nothing.

I kinda like a trade of Volquez and Alonso for those 3 guys (if the Os pony up the cash). We could improve the team & still have some prospects left if an ace became available.

Will M
06-20-2011, 08:04 PM
Perfect. How about for Votto and Bailey?


Who would seriously suggest that?

IMO this has become a Redszone myth. I don't think anyone here on the ORG wanted to pony up Bruce/Votto plus Cueto/Bailey for Bedard. The Os may have wanted it but no one here did. Or at least very very few did.

Benihana
06-20-2011, 08:10 PM
IMO this has become a Redszone myth. I don't think anyone here on the ORG wanted to pony up Bruce/Votto plus Cueto/Bailey for Bedard. The Os may have wanted it but no one here did. Or at least very very few did.

Wrong. Lots of Redszoners wanted that. No one wanted to trade Bruce, except IIRC red-in-la. Lots of people were comfortable trading Votto and one of the pitchers. Bruce was much more highly rated than Votto at the time.

Brutus
06-20-2011, 08:26 PM
Statistically, Bedard would be a great addition. However, I do have some concerns...

1. He's long been considered a nutcase. He's gotten comfortable in Seattle, but a lot of people have been concerned with how he'd fit in if he were traded.

2. His history of injuries is a major concern. He's only twice eclipsed 150 innings and hasn't last done that in five years. At any time, he could make another DL trip, and when there's only three months left in the season, that's never a good gamble.

3. Even if he does stay healthy, it will cost the Reds financially. While he's only making $1 million this year, the crux is that he has another $6 million tiered out according to how many innings he pitches. Since performance bonuses such as this one don't vest until after the year, that means the Reds would be on the hook for the equivalent of (in theory) half the year's worth of a $13 million salary, rather than just the prorated portion of $1 million. Of course, that's not to suggest the Reds couldn't have money thrown in the deal, but if Bedard stays healthy, he might be too pricey, if he doesn't, he wouldn't be worth trading for anyhow.

Point is... lots of concerns there. Talent wise, he's an upgrade. Lot of risk though.

One thing I'd try if I'm the Reds is get Seattle to agree to a Player to be Named later as part of the deal and Seattle include something like $3 million. The reason, strategically, this would work is because if two clubs submit a list of players as a PTBNL but cannot come to an agreement on the player within the allotted six months to name him, a cash transaction is made instead according to MLB rules. It could be worked out that the Mariners provide the Reds a list of 2-3 players and (for example) $1-2 million prospect equivalency. If Bedard's performance bonus fully vests, meaning he pitches the rest of the season, the Reds would simply give the Mariners the extra prospect. If not, the Reds would return a lot of the money given to them as insurance against Bedard's bonus in lieu of the extra prospect. It's basically a contingency against his reaching the full bonus.

mth123
06-20-2011, 08:30 PM
I've talked about Guthrie on other threads before, and I could see the Reds making a run at him. I'm sure the O's would ask for Alonso coming back, which seems steep for a rental of Guthrie's caliber, so hopefully they'd settle for less.

The Reds could do much worse than bringing in a reliable pitcher who has posted a sub 4 ERA pitching in the AL East 4 of the last 5 years. He would certainly be an improvement on the dreck coming out of the Volquez/Wood starts. This could be like the David Wells trade 16 years later.

EDIT: According to BR Guthrie, despite being 32 years old, is eligible for arbitration and not free agency next season. Therefore Alonso would be a reasonable price for him, especially if Baltimore sent some cash back in return. Luke Scott is another piece that might be available and could interest the Reds.

Yonder Alonso and Fred Lewis for Jeremy Guthrie and Luke Scott (and hopefully some cash). What say you?

I say add Volquez and get Hardy too.

Superdude
06-20-2011, 08:42 PM
If we can get Guthrie for cheap, great. I'll be super unhappy if we dump Alonso or something for a guy who may or may not be one of our best five starters. Get a clear cut upgrade and make the move worth it.

Benihana
06-20-2011, 08:56 PM
If we can get Guthrie for cheap, great. I'll be super unhappy if we dump Alonso or something for a guy who may or may not be one of our best five starters. Get a clear cut upgrade and make the move worth it.

I understand where you're coming from, but are you watching tonight's game? Did you watch Saturday's game?

Guthrie would clearly be one of our top 5 starters, and if Cueto doesn't make tomorrow's start Guthrie might just be our best healthy starter.

IMO, at worst he's another Arroyo- something this club could clearly use at the moment. At best, he'll clearly be one of our three postseason starters, which we might be able to get to with an addition like him (or some other pitcher). The O's are such an interesting trade partner because they have a clear need at 1B (Yonder), and in addition to Guthrie, have a SS and LF that have been rumored to be available, AND can afford to send some cash our way.

Fill in the blanks depending on your risk profile and preferences, but some combination of Alonso, Lewis, Francisco, and Volquez or Wood can go to Baltimore, with some combination of Guthrie, Hardy, Scott, and $5 MM cash coming to Cincinnati.

Brutus
06-20-2011, 09:04 PM
I understand where you're coming from, but are you watching tonight's game? Did you watch Saturday's game?

Guthrie would clearly be one of our top 5 starters, and if Cueto doesn't make tomorrow's start Guthrie might just be our best healthy starter.

IMO, at worst he's another Arroyo- something this club could clearly use at the moment. At best, he'll clearly be one of our three postseason starters, which we might be able to get to with an addition like him (or some other pitcher). The O's are such an interesting trade partner because they have a clear need at 1B (Yonder), and in addition to Guthrie, have a SS and LF that have been rumored to be available, AND can afford to send some cash our way.

Fill in the blanks depending on your risk profile and preferences, but some combination of Alonso, Lewis, Francisco, and Volquez or Wood can go to Baltimore, with some combination of Guthrie, Hardy, Scott, and $5 MM cash coming to Cincinnati.

I do like Guthrie. He throws strikes, to his credit, but he sure as heck doesn't miss bats. For that reason, I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he is.

He's a guy that doesn't miss bats and is an extreme flyball pitcher. The Reds don't need another one of those. They need a guy that can fit more closely into the top of the rotation and go out and dominate a good offense.

I am not saying I'm against Guthrie. I think he's a solid pitcher. But the Reds aren't lacking in 'solid' pitching right now (especially lately). Even despite Volquez and Wood taking turns looking poor, the Reds' starters have been pretty good on the whole in recent weeks.

If the Reds are setting their sights on a starter, I hope it's someone with more upside. I like Danks and Bedard a lot more than Guthrie in that situation, even with my prior listed concerns regarding Bedard.

Superdude
06-20-2011, 09:17 PM
I understand where you're coming from, but are you watching tonight's game? Did you watch Saturday's game?

Guthrie would clearly be one of our top 5 starters, and if Cueto doesn't make tomorrow's start Guthrie might just be our best healthy starter.

I don't consider Wood one of our best starters when Bailey comes back, which should be soon I would think. And are you referring to the Saturday when we got shutout 4-0? I would hardly call that a disaster worth panicking over.

I just don't want to see Walt trade valuable pieces for a guy who isn't an obviously clear upgrade. Unload the truck for an ace if you're going to do anything.

mth123
06-20-2011, 09:19 PM
I understand where you're coming from, but are you watching tonight's game? Did you watch Saturday's game?

Guthrie would clearly be one of our top 5 starters, and if Cueto doesn't make tomorrow's start Guthrie might just be our best healthy starter.

IMO, at worst he's another Arroyo- something this club could clearly use at the moment. At best, he'll clearly be one of our three postseason starters, which we might be able to get to with an addition like him (or some other pitcher). The O's are such an interesting trade partner because they have a clear need at 1B (Yonder), and in addition to Guthrie, have a SS and LF that have been rumored to be available, AND can afford to send some cash our way.

Fill in the blanks depending on your risk profile and preferences, but some combination of Alonso, Lewis, Francisco, and Volquez or Wood can go to Baltimore, with some combination of Guthrie, Hardy, Scott, and $5 MM cash coming to Cincinnati.

They gotta take Renteria too.

Alonso, Volquez, Lewis, Renteria and Jordan Smith for Guthrie, Hardy and Scott.

Reds sending $5.2 Million in annual salary and taking back $18 Million. The difference of 12.8 Million cut in half since the season is half over would mean the Reds are adding $6.4 Million. If the O's pitch in $3 Million, that would be doable and address every area of need on the roster.

Stubbs CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Scott/Gomes LF
Rolen 3B
Hardy SS
Hernandez/Hanigan C

Janish, Heisey and Cairo fill the bench.

Cueto
Arroyo
Guthrie
Leake
Bailey

Lecure
Willis
Ondrusek
Arredondo
Masset
Bray
Cordero

Wood in AAA as insurance for when Bailey goes back on the DL and Chapman converts back to starting. Horst, Fisher, Maloney etc available as extra arms if necessary. Mesoraco and Francisco provide RH and LH power in reserve and Hermida, Sappelt and Frazier still around. I'd make the deal and throw in a couple lower level guys if need be to make it happen.

savafan
06-20-2011, 09:24 PM
What about a guy like Anibal Sanchez from Florida? The Marlins have a history of trading stars for prospects, Sanchez has another year on his contract after this year and he could be an ace on this team.

Brutus
06-20-2011, 09:27 PM
What about a guy like Anibal Sanchez from Florida? The Marlins have a history of trading stars for prospects, Sanchez has another year on his contract after this year and he could be an ace on this team.

Love the idea, but the Marlins are opening up the new park this coming April and are committed to trying to put a good product on the field. That's why they locked up Hanley and Josh Johnson both, hoping to keep a nucleus together as they move into the new digs.

Some projections believe they'll earn another $20 million annually in revenue with being in a better part of town, getting out of that awful lease they were in, etc.

So my hunch is that they wouldn't likely give him up very easily.

mth123
06-20-2011, 09:28 PM
What about a guy like Anibal Sanchez from Florida? The Marlins have a history of trading stars for prospects, Sanchez has another year on his contract after this year and he could be an ace on this team.

I'd love to have that guy. Not sure if the Marlins would deal him or if the Reds have what it takes to get him. I'd guess Grandal would be a start and they may like Heisey as a CF option. Can't see the Marlins having much interest in Alonso from a roster standpoint, but the Cuba and Florida angle may be appealing. Of course Grandal fills that as well. Maybe they would volunteer to move to the AL under the realignment plan if they got him.;)

savafan
06-20-2011, 09:31 PM
I'd love to have that guy. Not sure if the Marlins would deal him or if the Reds have what it takes to get him. I'd guess Grandal would be a start and they may like Heisey as a CF option. Can't see the Marlins having much interest in Alonso from a roster standpoint, but the Cuba and Florida angle may be appealing. Of course Grandal fills that as well. Maybe they would volunteer to move to the AL under the realignment plan if they got him.;)

I'd start with Grandal, Frazier, Heisey (or Sappelt) and a pitcher then see what happens.

Benihana
06-20-2011, 09:32 PM
Guys, I would rather have an ace too, obviously.

But unless Jered Weaver suddenly becomes available, I'm not sure one exists on the market. Liriano, maybe but unlikely the Twins will deal him. Danks, not an ace, but I also like him better than Guthrie. Bedard, I'll take only if he comes cheap- lots of risk there. Anyone else?

What I'm saying is that I like Guthrie better than the status quo. If we can get him for a spare part and control him for next year as well, I'll take it.

mth123
06-20-2011, 09:35 PM
Guys, I would rather have an ace too, obviously.

But unless Jered Weaver suddenly becomes available, I'm not sure one exists on the market. Liriano, maybe but unlikely the Twins will deal him. Danks, not an ace, but I also like him better than Guthrie. Bedard, I'll take only if he comes cheap- lots of risk there. Anyone else?

What I'm saying is that I like Guthrie better than the status quo. If we can get him for a spare part and control him for next year as well, I'll take it.

I agree that Guthrie would be one of our five best starters and push the worst out improving the rotation overall. I also don't think we've seen the last of Bailey's shoulder issues - at least we should be prepared for more issues anyway. Adding a solid major league starter who has succeeded in the toughest division in baseball would be an upgrade IMO.

Benihana
06-20-2011, 09:35 PM
I'd start with Grandal, Frazier, Heisey (or Sappelt) and a pitcher then see what happens.

I'd do that deal for Sanchez too. I'm not sure the Fish would trade him though.

How about playing to the local crowd and giving them their choice of 2 out of our 3 Cubans: Alonso, Grandal, or Chapman.

savafan
06-20-2011, 09:52 PM
I'd do that deal for Sanchez too. I'm not sure the Fish would trade him though.

How about playing to the local crowd and giving them their choice of 2 out of our 3 Cubans: Alonso, Grandal, or Chapman.

How about Grandal, Alonso, Frazier and Wood for Sanchez? I'd hate to part with Wood, as I do think he has the chance to be a special pitcher in the vein of Maddux or Cliff Lee, but you have to give up something to get something, and while this is a huge haul for one player, Sanchez would easily be the best pitcher on the Reds staff.

mth123
06-20-2011, 09:58 PM
How about Grandal, Alonso, Frazier and Wood for Sanchez? I'd hate to part with Wood, as I do think he has the chance to be a special pitcher in the vein of Maddux or Cliff Lee, but you have to give up something to get something, and while this is a huge haul for one player, Sanchez would easily be the best pitcher on the Reds staff.

That's a little much. Grandal and Alonso is a pretty good package. No way I'd add Wood. I like Sanchez, but he's a pretty big injury risk himself in a rotation already filled with question marks.

edabbs44
06-20-2011, 10:00 PM
How about Grandal, Alonso, Frazier and Wood for Sanchez? I'd hate to part with Wood, as I do think he has the chance to be a special pitcher in the vein of Maddux or Cliff Lee, but you have to give up something to get something, and while this is a huge haul for one player, Sanchez would easily be the best pitcher on the Reds staff.

Maybe if they threw in JJ as well. I think you are off target here.

savafan
06-20-2011, 10:05 PM
That's a little much. Grandal and Alonso is a pretty good package. No way I'd add Wood. I like Sanchez, but he's a pretty big injury risk himself in a rotation already filled with question marks.

Okay, take Wood out of the equation. If the Fish still wanted Frazier as well, would you make the move for Sanchez giving up Todd along with Grandal and Alonso?

membengal
06-20-2011, 10:12 PM
The time to get an anchor for the rotation was last off-season. The Reds took a pass on doing so.

Adding a Guthrie type now does zero for this team.

Benihana
06-20-2011, 10:25 PM
The time to get an anchor for the rotation was last off-season. The Reds took a pass on doing so.

Adding a Guthrie type now does zero for this team.

To be fair, Zack Greinke has a 5.23 ERA this year. (I know, I know, his peripherals are better than that.) The Marcum deal was the deal we should have made in hindsight. Can you imagine if we would have dealt Alonso for him straight up?

aubashbrother
06-21-2011, 01:21 AM
James Shields would be who Id go after

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-21-2011, 03:37 AM
It's the offense, dang it! This team can't score!!!

cinreds21
06-21-2011, 04:04 AM
The Marlins are not looking to deal Anibal. There is talk of the Marlins looking to sign him to an extension in the off-season.

schroomytunes
06-21-2011, 06:50 AM
If I'm dealing with the Orioles than I'd be offering them this package:

Reds Trade- Yonder Alonzo, Travis Wood, Chris Valaika and Edgar Renteria(salary dump to balance $$$)

Orioles Trade-JJ Hardy and Jeremy Guthrie

Thoughts?

membengal
06-21-2011, 07:53 AM
Guthrie has been mentioned a few times on here. He's a nice pitcher. But he's no ace. Far from it. I don't see where he is an appreciable upgrade over what's here already. And I certainly don't feel any better about a potential playoff match-up with Guthrie on the mound as opposed to Wood. Not to mention, Gurthrie comes with a price tag of his own that someone will need to explain to me how it fits into the Reds budget, a budget inflexible enough that it apparently kept them from going after a Grienke type last off-season.

ETA: Hardy is a fine target, altho given the budget constraints this team operates under, I still don't understand why they would not give Cozart a chance to improve from within before taking on more money when money was what kept them (allegedly/apparently) from going to get a true ace/rotation anchor this past off-season.

HeatherC1212
06-21-2011, 10:07 AM
Corresponding Thread at Orioles Hangout about Guthrie (http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/111756-Cincinnati-interested-in-Guthrie.)

The fans there want Alonso and Boxberger/Cozart or some variation of those players to get the deal done. I have no clue why they want Cozart when their front office would allegedly like to sign Hardy to a longer term deal but whatever. Just posting this for your information (and amusement as they've linked to this thread over there too, LOL). :)

schroomytunes
06-21-2011, 10:38 AM
I'd offer the Orioles this deal and see what happens:

Reds trade-Yonder Alonzo, Donnie Joseph, Chris Valaika and Edgar Renteria(Cash dump to balance $$$)

Orioles Trade- JJ Hardy and Jim Johnson

Why it works:

Orioles- they get a future 1b that is ready for mlb now but is blocked by Votto, Joseph gives the a live arm for the pen in 2-3 years when they will be contenders, and Valaika would platoon at 2nd/SS now at the mlb level. Renteria helps even $$$'s out.

Reds-- JJ Hardy would fill a huge hole in the reds lineup and shore up a glaring weakness in the batting order! Johnson is an extreme GB pitcher with solid control who would help shore up the middle relief for the stretch run!

Ghosts of 1990
06-21-2011, 10:38 AM
I'll do anything for a little offense right about now. Everyone should be available. Yes, everyone.

Edd Roush
06-21-2011, 10:55 AM
I'd offer the Orioles this deal and see what happens:

Reds trade-Yonder Alonzo, Donnie Joseph, Chris Valaika and Edgar Renteria(Cash dump to balance $$$)

Orioles Trade- JJ Hardy and Jim Johnson

Why it works:

Orioles- they get a future 1b that is ready for mlb now but is blocked by Votto, Joseph gives the a live arm for the pen in 2-3 years when they will be contenders, and Valaika would platoon at 2nd/SS now at the mlb level. Renteria helps even $$$'s out.

Reds-- JJ Hardy would fill a huge hole in the reds lineup and shore up a glaring weakness in the batting order! Johnson is an extreme GB pitcher with solid control who would help shore up the middle relief for the stretch run!

schroomy, why the interest in Jim Johnson. I understand the allure of a low BB reliever, but he doesn't have great K numbers. What seperates him from a Jordan Smith?

nate
06-21-2011, 11:26 AM
The Reds still lead the NL in runs scored. Their starters have allowed the third most earned runs (fourth most runs) in the NL.

Reds starters have put up these numbers this season:

K/9: 6.60
BB/9: 3.00
HR/9: 1.16
FIP: 4.28
xFIP: 3.93

Even finding a start who puts up numbers like that would improve the starting pitching as it bumps one of the guys dragging the numbers down from the "good" starters.

For example, this guy*:

K/9: 7.58
BB/9: 3.12
HR/9: 0.62
FIP: 3.21
xFIP: 3.36

His career numbers look similar to the Reds starters:

K/9: 6.67
BB/9: 3.79
HR/9: 1.02
FIP: 4.40
xFIP: 4.42

2011 Jeremy Guthrie stacks up thusly:

K/9: 5.84
BB/9: 1.68
HR/9: 1.19
FIP: 4.03
xFIP: 3.90

And for his career:

K/9: 5.53
BB/9: 2.54
HR/9: 1.24
FIP: 4.66
xFIP: 4.58

*Edwin Jackson's downside is that he doesn't have the most desirable batted ball tendencies. The key is finding someone who's right around the Reds averages or better so as to move one of the pitching lodestones out of the rotation.

Tony Cloninger
06-21-2011, 11:28 AM
I'd offer the Orioles this deal and see what happens:

Reds trade-Yonder Alonzo, Donnie Joseph, Chris Valaika and Edgar Renteria(Cash dump to balance $$$)

Orioles Trade- JJ Hardy and Jim Johnson

Why it works:

Orioles- they get a future 1b that is ready for mlb now but is blocked by Votto, Joseph gives the a live arm for the pen in 2-3 years when they will be contenders, and Valaika would platoon at 2nd/SS now at the mlb level. Renteria helps even $$$'s out.

Reds-- JJ Hardy would fill a huge hole in the reds lineup and shore up a glaring weakness in the batting order! Johnson is an extreme GB pitcher with solid control who would help shore up the middle relief for the stretch run!


No one in their right mind would want Renteria. Why even put him there in the discussion?
The rest sounds great except i would rather have another hitter. Just add Nick Christani and Chris Heisey and see if they throw in Nick Markakis and Jim Johnson.

5 for 3, with Hardy probably not being re-signed.

Tony Cloninger
06-21-2011, 11:32 AM
The Reds still lead the NL in runs scored. Their starters have allowed the third most earned runs (fourth most runs) in the NL.

Reds starters have put up these numbers this season:

K/9: 6.60
BB/9: 3.00
HR/9: 1.16
FIP: 4.28
xFIP: 3.93

Even finding a start who puts up numbers like that would improve the starting pitching as it bumps one of the guys dragging the numbers down from the "good" starters.

For example, this guy*:

K/9: 7.58
BB/9: 3.12
HR/9: 0.62
FIP: 3.21
xFIP: 3.36

His career numbers look similar to the Reds starters:

K/9: 6.67
BB/9: 3.79
HR/9: 1.02
FIP: 4.40
xFIP: 4.42

2011 Jeremy Guthrie stacks up thusly:

K/9: 5.84
BB/9: 1.68
HR/9: 1.19
FIP: 4.03
xFIP: 3.90

And for his career:

K/9: 5.53
BB/9: 2.54
HR/9: 1.24
FIP: 4.66
xFIP: 4.58

*Edwin Jackson's downside is that he doesn't have the most desirable batted ball tendencies. The key is finding someone who's right around the Reds averages or better so as to move one of the pitching lodestones out of the rotation.



They are 2nd behind SD, the lowest scoring team in the NL, I believe....in scoring 3 runs or less. 30th this season they have done so. Like someone said...this staff is not going to be the 1971 Orioles or 1995 Braves.

Sure they need Bailey back to offset either Wood or Volquez. They need LeClure back so they can hide Jose A like they did Horst. However they still need more offense.

Blitz Dorsey
06-21-2011, 11:35 AM
I'm just not buying it -- not even close. If the Reds make any trades, it will be for a legit LF.

If they need a starter ... it's called making Aroldis Chapman a starter like he should be. Also, they're not going to find anyone much better than what they've already got with Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, Volquez and Wood. And Bailey is going to come off the DL which will give them six legit starting pitchers. Chapman would make seven if they need him. They also have guys like LeCure and Dontrelle Willis that could start.

No way the Reds trade for a starting pitcher. This report is bunk IMO.

HotCorner
06-21-2011, 12:54 PM
Get Beltran and Reyes. This lineup would take off. With the current pitching, this team could go on a run.

The Mets reportedly will pay most (if not all of Beltran's salary) if they receive value for him.

Wood, Grandal, Heisey, and Joseph for those two?

traderumor
06-21-2011, 12:58 PM
It's the offense, dang it! This team can't score!!!Look up the word obscurantist.

Also, consider "don't go grocery shopping when you're hungry."

cinreds21
06-21-2011, 12:58 PM
Get Beltran and Reyes. This lineup would take off. With the current pitching, this team could go on a run.

The Mets reportedly will pay most (if not all of Beltran's salary) if they receive value for him.

Wood, Grandal, Heisey, and Joseph for those two?

It would take more for Reyes alone.

reds44
06-21-2011, 01:37 PM
Or we can just do the easy thing and call up Cozart and Sappelt (or Alonso) and watch the offense get better right away.

cinreds21
06-21-2011, 01:45 PM
Or we can just do the easy thing and call up Cozart and Sappelt (or Alonso) and watch the offense get better right away.

I really think this is the best option. There really aren't any great players available that would be worth getting. The Reds have done well this far, they might as well bring Sapp and Cozy up, they can't do any worse than what Gomes and Janish have done.

mace
06-21-2011, 02:01 PM
Or we can just do the easy thing and call up Cozart and Sappelt (or Alonso) and watch the offense get better right away.

The advantage to that is that you have a month to find out if they can be difference-makers. If they provide a jolt, great, you've solved some problems. If not, then you make a deal. But if you don't bring them up, you run the risk of closing them out of an opportunity and perhaps wasting their value.

Guacarock
06-21-2011, 02:33 PM
The advantage to that is that you have a month to find out if they can be difference-makers. If they provide a jolt, great, you've solved some problems. If not, then you make a deal. But if you don't bring them up, you run the risk of closing them out of an opportunity and perhaps wasting their value.

The Reds have nothing to lose by giving Cozart and Sappelt a trial-spin. The team, as currently constituted, is going nowhere. They have been sputtering for many weeks now, squandering the good vibes lingering from last year.

I'm surprised and even a tad shocked that Jocketty has been so slow to identify and correct the team's problems. I can see why the starting pitching would take time because it involves spending money, working trades and waiting while your horses get healthy. Sappelt's injury also set back the timetable for him. But in the case of calling up Cozart to replace the non-performing tandem of Janish/Renteria, there's no excuse for the delay.

lollipopcurve
06-21-2011, 02:46 PM
In another tweet he mentions Jeremy Guthrie as a guy the Reds like.

Assuming Guthrie is healthy (apparently he had to come out of his last start with a muscle strain in his back), I think he's a good target, given the Reds match up well with the O's needs (they need young hitters). Jocketty and McPhail made the Hernanadez-Freel trade, so this is one I could definitely see happening. Guthrie would give the Reds a super dependable middle of the rotation guy with a strong recent history of going 200 innings in the AL East. That's a rock solid asset, and could give the team some flexibility to move another pitcher for an offensive player they like.

CrackerJack
06-21-2011, 03:41 PM
The advantage to that is that you have a month to find out if they can be difference-makers. If they provide a jolt, great, you've solved some problems. If not, then you make a deal. But if you don't bring them up, you run the risk of closing them out of an opportunity and perhaps wasting their value.

Then you would hurt feelings and be holding guys accountable for their performance over 3 months, instead of letting King Dusty's personal feelings for a player's need to get hot for a week or two dictate everything, at the cost of wins and the rest of the team's success.

Look how that paid-off in the post season last year.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-21-2011, 03:57 PM
Looking at Guthrie's career numbers, he looks like a younger (2 years) and much cheaper (currently) version of Bronson Arroyo.

Last 3 years:

95 GS
600 IP
593 H (8.90)
168 BB (2.52)
349 K (5.24)
1.27 WHIP

I'd assume his K numbers would go up and H numbers down with the transition to the NL.

Arroyo last 3:

100 GS
636 IP
621 H (8.80)
192 BB (2.71)
411 K (5.81)
1.28 WHIP

Guthrie 2011: 91 IP, 90 H, 17 BB, 59 K, 1.18 WHIP
Arroyo 2011: 90 IP, 104 H, 19 BB, 53 K, 1.36 WHIP

*BaseClogger*
06-21-2011, 04:01 PM
Guthrie reminds me of a right-handed Mark Buehrle...

cinreds21
06-21-2011, 04:26 PM
We honestly don't "need' a starter.
Let's look at this
Cueto-in
Arroyo-in
Bailey-out of options, so in

So that leaves two spots for Leake, Wood, and Volquez. That means that we'd send both Wood and Volquez down and leave Leake (assuming he still continues to pitch welll.)

So that's a rotation of

Cueto
Arroyo
Guthrie
Bailey
Leake

leaving a triple-A rotation of:
Wood
Volquez
Willis
Carroll
Maloney/Thompson/Cochran/Reineke

I just think trading for a pitcher or a position player now wouldn't be the best decision. Bring up Sapp, Cozart and even Willis and let the boys go the rest of the season. If Willis turns into Detroit Willis, then call up the hot hand in Triple-A. You have to let Cozy and Sapp play the rest of the year so you can re-asses it in the off-season and then deal of the prospects for what you really want.

reds44
06-21-2011, 04:29 PM
I understand what you're saying, but at some point the Reds need to realize they have a realistic chance of going to the playoffs in back to back year. Wood has great potential and all, but we're trying to win the World Series here. At some point, you need production instead of potential, and right now they aren't getting it from Volquez and Wood.

And you can't rely on Bailey right now. Obviously when he's healty he's in the rotation, but he hasn't been healthy this year.

cinreds21
06-21-2011, 04:35 PM
I understand what you're saying, but at some point the Reds need to realize they have a realistic chance of going to the playoffs in back to back year. Wood has great potential and all, but we're trying to win the World Series here. At some point, you need production instead of potential, and right now they aren't getting it from Volquez and Wood.

And you can't rely on Bailey right now. Obviously when he's healty he's in the rotation, but he hasn't been healthy this year.

But that's why they need to bring up Cozart, Sapp and Willis. I'm just saying there is no reason for them to make a deal (when there isn't anyone extremely attractive available) when you have players raking in Triple-A.

cinreds21
06-21-2011, 04:42 PM
Ken Rosenthal is speculating that James Shields will become available, but it would be for a monster return. I'd not hesitate to give Yonder, Francisco, and one of Wood, Leake, or Volquez.

REDREAD
06-21-2011, 06:11 PM
We honestly don't "need' a starter.
Let's look at this
Cueto-in
Arroyo-in
Bailey-out of options, so in

So that leaves two spots for Leake, Wood, and Volquez. That means that we'd send both Wood and Volquez down and leave Leake (assuming he still continues to pitch welll.)
.

My guess is that if the Reds trade for someone like Guthrie, a "bubble" young pitcher like Volquez, Wood, Bailey, etc would go to the other team..
I mean, if you were the rebuilding team trading an established pitcher, wouldn't you ask for one of the Reds' excess arms in return, as opposed to
the usual suspects we hope the Reds will trade... It makes sense for the Reds too.. When would a spot ever open up for that banished young pitcher (other than injuries).

cinreds21
06-21-2011, 06:16 PM
You're right Read. I only see that as the logical reason to do a trade like that.

reds44
06-21-2011, 07:01 PM
Ken Rosenthal is speculating that James Shields will become available, but it would be for a monster return. I'd not hesitate to give Yonder, Francisco, and one of Wood, Leake, or Volquez.
Anybody with the nickname big game James is good by me.

Rojo
06-21-2011, 07:13 PM
Even finding a start who puts up numbers like that would improve the starting pitching as it bumps one of the guys dragging the numbers down from the "good" starters.

Thing is -- if you add a guy in at the top of the rotation, your #1 becomes your #2 and your #2 becomes your #3, etc... It's like improving five spots or like getting a few Guthries thrown in in for free.

I'm down on doing what it takes to get a number #1. But I'm not so high on shoring up the middle of the rotation, unless it's real cheap.

mth123
06-21-2011, 07:49 PM
Not sure I get the hesitation on Guthrie. Bailey is a labrum surgery waiting to happen. If he can stay on the team this time around great, but plans should be made as if he won't be around. Cueto can only pitch once each 5 days. Arroyo is about Guthrie's equal. Guthrie is better than the rest. The pitching sucks and an upgrade is an upgrade.

Over the last 4.5 seasons, Guthrie's IP numbers are 175, 190, 200, 209 and he's on pace for 200 or so again. His ERA plus numbers have been 125, 122, 90, 111 and 113. He hasn't done that playing against the Astros and Pirates multiple times each year. He's generally been going against the three top teams in the game over that period in the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays. The only weak line-up in the Division has been his own team. His team hasn't been particularly gifted on defense to bail him out and his home park and the road parks in his division are offensive havens similar to what the NL Central has to offer.

If any of the Reds young potentials put up a 5 year run like that in Cincy, I think we'd all be pretty happy. Why pass on a guy who has proven he can do that because we have a bunch of question marks that might some day? This sounds like what many (including me) we're saying when the acquisition of Arroyo was generally panned by the masses.

Guthrie would be one of the team's top three starters and easily one of the more reliable arms in the Division.

RedLegSuperStar
06-21-2011, 08:15 PM
What's the difference between this year and last years rotation? Harang?? Huge loss.. Difference is the Reds were going after Cliff Lee. Now a rumor of Guthrie?

If that's the case I'll buy stock in white flags!

Will M
06-21-2011, 08:38 PM
Cueto
Leake
Arroyo
-----------
Volquez - doing better recently
Wood - 2011 isn't 2010
Bailey - Mr DL

I wonder if the Reds looking at starters points to their concerns regarding Bailey's health (whether short term or long term). I'd be fine with adding Guthrie as he adds a solid reliable arm for the rotation.
I am starting to think the Reds should look at Homer as a 6th starter. whatever they get from his is gravy but don't expect 200 innings

mth123
06-21-2011, 09:00 PM
What's the difference between this year and last years rotation? Harang?? Huge loss.. Difference is the Reds were going after Cliff Lee. Now a rumor of Guthrie?

If that's the case I'll buy stock in white flags!

I think the main difference is that the league is getting its second look at Leake and Wood and second years are more difficult than first years because the league has adjusted. Bailey now has not just one shoulder injury to make him dubious, but three. Arroyo isn't getting quite the same BABIP luck as he did last year, has battled Mono and its symtoms and now has some questions about his back. Volquez was always an iffy proposition. They were really only middle of the pack last year as a staff and that was with a lights out pen for most of the year.

I don't think they should turn their nose up at a solid above average performer who eats innings and has proven it for multiple years against pretty good competition. Sometimes you have to turn questions into answers even if it isn't with a superstar. Its not like this is Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz we have as a starting point.

membengal
06-21-2011, 09:11 PM
mth, I don't like it because it doesn't really move the needle. He left his last start with some sort of back issue, and is getting lit tonight in Pittsburgh. So, in that respect, he would fit right into this staff.

I don't think he appreciably improves over what the Reds have already, and certainly doesn't give them the front of rotation starter they lack in a hypothetical short series*. And, if I am hearing right, people are proposing (and the O's would certainly request) Alonso in the deal. I would hate to trade a good chip for such a mid-line return.

Plus, Guthrie costs some coin, and if getting him would preclude them from getting an actual TOR hammer, I really don't like it. And I suspect getting him would indeed foreclose a move to get someone who really might make a difference.

Still a firm "no" from me.**

*Living in Baltimore as I now do, I have seen quite a lot of Guthrie, in person and on the tube

**Not that Walt cares what I think.

edabbs44
06-21-2011, 09:25 PM
The advantage to that is that you have a month to find out if they can be difference-makers. If they provide a jolt, great, you've solved some problems. If not, then you make a deal. But if you don't bring them up, you run the risk of closing them out of an opportunity and perhaps wasting their value.

Or they can provide false hope, you don't make a move and then are screwed at the deadline. Which can happen with young guys.

savafan
06-21-2011, 09:29 PM
The Marlins are not looking to deal Anibal. There is talk of the Marlins looking to sign him to an extension in the off-season.

They don't have to be looking to deal him, make an offer... a good offer that makes sense, and see if they refuse it.

edabbs44
06-21-2011, 09:37 PM
My guess is that if the Reds trade for someone like Guthrie, a "bubble" young pitcher like Volquez, Wood, Bailey, etc would go to the other team..
I mean, if you were the rebuilding team trading an established pitcher, wouldn't you ask for one of the Reds' excess arms in return, as opposed to
the usual suspects we hope the Reds will trade... It makes sense for the Reds too.. When would a spot ever open up for that banished young pitcher (other than injuries).

If the Reds can get Guthrie for Frazier (for example), then one of the bubble guys can go for someone else. It all depends on what the other side wants.

mth123
06-21-2011, 09:53 PM
mth, I don't like it because it doesn't really move the needle. He left his last start with some sort of back issue, and is getting lit tonight in Pittsburgh. So, in that respect, he would fit right into this staff.

I don't think he appreciably improves over what the Reds have already, and certainly doesn't give them the front of rotation starter they lack in a hypothetical short series*. And, if I am hearing right, people are proposing (and the O's would certainly request) Alonso in the deal. I would hate to trade a good chip for such a mid-line return.

Plus, Guthrie costs some coin, and if getting him would preclude them from getting an actual TOR hammer, I really don't like it. And I suspect getting him would indeed foreclose a move to get someone who really might make a difference.

Still a firm "no" from me.**

*Living in Baltimore as I now do, I have seen quite a lot of Guthrie, in person and on the tube

**Not that Walt cares what I think.

Except the Reds don't have 5 better starters in fact. They have 5 better in theory that would require a lot of things to go right in hopes that they can provide what Guthrie has proven he can do for 5 years in a row. Front of the Rotation would be awesome, but this team only has two guys who can reasonably argue that they qualify as middle of the rotation. The rest are all number 5s until they prove otherwise in the big leagues for a while (that is more than a few weeks or a couple of months and without serious health questions looming over them). If Guthrie's health issues might be the lingering or recurring type, I'm a lot less interested, but if its some fleeting injury that doesn't involve his arm, I'd say get him.

It does move the needle because they go from a rotation with only two guys whose names can be written in ink, to one with three guys who can be written in ink.

savafan
06-21-2011, 09:56 PM
Except the Reds don't have 5 better starters in fact. They have 5 better in theory that would require a lot of things to go right in hopes that they can provide what Guthrie has proven he can do for 5 years in a row.


I'd gnaw my right leg off to get out of a bear trap to have Guthrie's 2009 season.

membengal
06-21-2011, 10:01 PM
mth...except for the bad back thing. It may have been a temporary thing. Or not. It's a back. And Guthrie isn't young.

mth123
06-21-2011, 10:03 PM
I'd gnaw my right leg off to get out of a bear trap to have Guthrie's 2009 season.

Meh, its one bad season in the middle of a 5 year run of good ones. He rebounded in 2010 and is doing well so far in 2011. That 5.04 ERA from 2009 was put up in a league with a DH and a division of Superpowers and translates to a ERA+ that is still better than 3 of the 6 guys in contention for rotation spots in 2011, very close to a 4th and one of the other two is coming off of his 3rd Shoulder injury in less than a year.

So yeah, even his 2009 would be an upgrade.

savafan
06-21-2011, 10:06 PM
So yeah, even his 2009 would be an upgrade.

But it still sucks.

mth123
06-21-2011, 10:10 PM
But it still sucks.

And clearly makes the point that this team shouldn't be so picky as to have to have an ace to upgrade its staff. In his worst season, he's still a better bet than over half the internal candidates. And he's not likely to put up his worst season again unless the injury that Membengal pointed to really hampers him. If so, then not interested. Otherwise, he's an upgrade.

savafan
06-21-2011, 10:13 PM
And clearly makes the point that this team shouldn't be so picky as to have to have an ace to upgrade its staff. In his worst season, he's still a better bet than over half the internal candidates. And he's not likely to put up his worst season again unless the injury that Membengal pointed to really hampers him. If so, then not interested. Otherwise, he's an upgrade.

A simple upgrade isn't enough if you want to win in October. You need someone who's going to be a hammer and better than what the other team has... that or someone who's going to vastly improve your lineup over the other team's. An upgrade is all well and good for getting to the playoffs, but in order to advance, you have to go all in.

reds44
06-21-2011, 10:14 PM
If we're making offers on unrealistic Marlin targets, lets get Hanley!

mth123
06-21-2011, 10:16 PM
A simple upgrade isn't enough if you want to win in October. You need someone who's going to be a hammer and better than what the other team has... that or someone who's going to vastly improve your lineup over the other team's. An upgrade is all well and good for getting to the playoffs, but in order to advance, you have to go all in.

Agreed, this isn't the only move that needs to be made. Right now, I'd like to win more often in June. The Reds had a chance at an ace or two over the winter and did nothing. Now they gotta improve where they can.

savafan
06-21-2011, 10:16 PM
If we're making offers on unrealistic Marlin targets, lets get Hanley!

Who knows what is truly unrealistic behind the closed doors of Major League offices?

reds44
06-21-2011, 10:17 PM
Who knows what is truly unrealistic behind the closed doors of Major League offices?
Well in that case, lets get Hanley!

savafan
06-21-2011, 10:18 PM
Well in that case, lets get Hanley!

It could potentially happen, but the price would be enormous.

Oxilon
06-21-2011, 10:29 PM
Guthrie can't carry a rotation in October, and at this point, that's all the Reds should be looking at. King Felix is the guy, or atleast should be the guy, the Reds are targeting.

savafan
06-21-2011, 10:32 PM
Guthrie can't carry a rotation in October, and at this point, that's all the Reds should be looking at. King Felix is the guy, or atleast should be the guy, the Reds are targeting.

Except the M's are only a game back of Texas, why would they deal him?

mth123
06-21-2011, 10:37 PM
Guthrie can't carry a rotation in October, and at this point, that's all the Reds should be looking at. King Felix is the guy, or atleast should be the guy, the Reds are targeting.

Except Guthre is the guy who is likely obtainable and this team likely needs somebody to help carry the rotation in July and August. I think the best way for this team to get an ace now, since they did nothing in the winter, is for one of the internal candidates to step forward. That's a long shot, but even if it happens, the team still needs enough quality innings from the other spots for it to mean anything. I'm not optimistic that enough of the question marks will come through for the rotation to stabilize without adding more certainty from outside the organization.

Spitball
06-21-2011, 10:41 PM
It could potentially happen, but the price would be enormous.

Ramirez is having a very poor season. His 12-6 stolen base rate might be a red flag. He is only 27 but perhaps he is starting to slip. I sure don't care for his defense.

savafan
06-21-2011, 10:43 PM
Guthrie is David Wells and Jose Guzman. The Reds need Curt Schilling and Cliff Lee.

reds44
06-21-2011, 10:45 PM
Ramirez is having a very poor season. His 12-6 stolen base rate might be a red flag. He is only 27 but perhaps he is starting to slip. I sure don't care for his defense.
You can't be serious. You wouldn't take Hanley?

mth123
06-21-2011, 10:45 PM
Guthrie is David Wells and Jose Guzman. The Reds need Curt Schilling and Cliff Lee.

If the Reds could get Curt Schilling and Cliff Lee, the may still need David Wells.

buckeyenut
06-21-2011, 10:46 PM
It could potentially happen, but the price would be enormous.
Ramirez and Johnson or Sanchez for whatever it takes (Alonso, Heisey, Volquez, Grandal, Rodriguez, etc). If we can get two or those three, you deal whatever it takes.

edabbs44
06-21-2011, 10:47 PM
You can't be serious. You wouldn't take Hanley?

Logan Morrison took Hanley out to the woodshed b/c of attitude. That's not good.

reds44
06-21-2011, 10:50 PM
Logan Morrison took Hanley out to the woodshed b/c of attitude. That's not good.
Good. Makes him cheaper to get.

Manny Ramirez won a ring. That's all you need to know.

edabbs44
06-21-2011, 10:54 PM
Something I was thinking about today...for all the flak that the FO is taking for not doing anything this offseason, does anyone see this as somewhat of a positive at this point? What if Cincy traded some bullets this offseason for some of the names mentioned recently like Willingham, Dejesus and/or Greinke? The Reds are only 2.5 games out and now know what the more important targets are and aren't. It would be an issue if they traded for Willingham, got those numbers and used up any flexibility they may have had and would now have to live with PJER with little hope for an upgrade from the outside.

I guess the key would be to capitalize on this at the deadline.

AtomicDumpling
06-21-2011, 10:56 PM
I would just like for the Reds to do SOMETHING, anything to improve this team. It has been years now since they have made a move to actually bring in a good player that improved the team in any significant way.

Castellini, please show me that you want to win. I want action, not words. Make a splash!

We have been told for years that when the time was right and the Reds had a good chance to contend that the team would make a key acquisition when needed. Now is that time. Were you blowing smoke up our backsides or did you mean it Bob? You let us down last year. Do you want to win or not?

edabbs44
06-21-2011, 10:57 PM
Good. Makes him cheaper to get.

Manny Ramirez won a ring. That's all you need to know.

His Janish impersonation is probably doing enough damage to his price tag. Not sure that I'd be willing to spend to much for him. Especially with those levels he is guaranteed over the next 3 years. That's a huge gamble.

nate
06-21-2011, 10:59 PM
Thing is -- if you add a guy in at the top of the rotation, your #1 becomes your #2 and your #2 becomes your #3, etc... It's like improving five spots or like getting a few Guthries thrown in in for free.

I'm down on doing what it takes to get a number #1. But I'm not so high on shoring up the middle of the rotation, unless it's real cheap.

I wouldn't empty the chest for Jackson but I'm not sure he'd be terribly expensive to acquire. He's a FA after this year anyhow.

savafan
06-21-2011, 10:59 PM
I would just like for the Reds to do SOMETHING, anything to improve this team. It has been years now since they have made a move to actually bring in a good player that improved the team in any significant way.

Castellini, please show me that you want to win. I want action, not words. Make a splash!

We have been told for years that when the time was right and the Reds had a good chance to contend that the team would make a key acquisition when needed. Now is that time. Were you blowing smoke up our backsides or did you mean it Bob? You let us down last year. Do you want to win or not?

If you believe what's been reported, it's not that they didn't try.

AtomicDumpling
06-21-2011, 11:01 PM
If you believe what's been reported, it's not that they didn't try.

Trying is not good enough. The Reds have as much talent in the minors as anyone and more young pitching than we can use, there is no excuse for not making a deal somewhere, somehow.

Patrick Bateman
06-21-2011, 11:02 PM
Trying is not good enough. The Reds have as much talent in the minors as anyone and more young pitching than we can use, there is no excuse for not making a deal somewhere, somehow.

Except for perhaps that the price of a deal right now is an overpayment.

There isn't always one right answer.

Cedric
06-21-2011, 11:04 PM
Something I was thinking about today...for all the flak that the FO is taking for not doing anything this offseason, does anyone see this as somewhat of a positive at this point? What if Cincy traded some bullets this offseason for some of the names mentioned recently like Willingham, Dejesus and/or Greinke? The Reds are only 2.5 games out and now know what the more important targets are and aren't. It would be an issue if they traded for Willingham, got those numbers and used up any flexibility they may have had and would now have to live with PJER with little hope for an upgrade from the outside.

I guess the key would be to capitalize on this at the deadline.

Greinke was the main guy I wanted and I see no reason why anyone wouldn't want him in this rotation now.

reds44
06-21-2011, 11:05 PM
So people don't want Reyes because he'll cost too much and is a free agent, but they also don't want to buy low on Hanley who has a LTC?

Whaaaaaaaa?

savafan
06-21-2011, 11:09 PM
So people don't want Reyes because he'll cost too much and is a free agent, but they also don't want to buy low on Hanley who has a LTC?

Whaaaaaaaa?

I'd do it, but I don't think the price would be as low as some here are expecting.

Patrick Bateman
06-21-2011, 11:09 PM
So people don't want Reyes because he'll cost too much and is a free agent, but they also don't want to buy low on Hanley who has a LTC?

Whaaaaaaaa?

I think the thought is to make a play for Tulo, not give up a lot, or if possible some medicore contracts, then, restructure the Tulo deal in order to free up money for some value free agent deals. Makes sense to me.

AtomicDumpling
06-21-2011, 11:10 PM
Except for perhaps that the price of a deal right now is an overpayment.

There isn't always one right answer.

I would be happy with the occasional right answer, hell right now I would be happy with a guess. Just do something. Sitting on our hands and doing nothing is guaranteed to squander the season. Take a shot, be aggressive, show us you are trying to win, make the best deal you can find and maybe we will win. We certainly won't win if we do nothing.

reds44
06-21-2011, 11:10 PM
I'd do it, but I don't think the price would be as low as some here are expecting.
Oh I don't think it'd be low at all, but at this point I think it'd be lower than Reyes. Plus he's already signed.

reds44
06-21-2011, 11:11 PM
I think the thought is to make a play for Tulo, not give up a lot, or if possible some medicore contracts, then, restructure the Tulo deal in order to free up money for some value free agent deals. Makes sense to me.
Well done lol.

Patrick Bateman
06-21-2011, 11:13 PM
I would be happy with the occasional right answer, hell right now I would be happy with a guess. Just do something. Sitting on our hands and doing nothing is guaranteed to squander the season. Take a shot, be aggressive, show us you are trying to win, make the best deal you can find and maybe we will win. We certainly won't win if we do nothing.

Well considering that last year we won with basically the same team and have not aged dramatically, and are also 2.5 games out, ya, we might win with what we have.

Trading future pieces for suspect upgraded just "to do something" isn't the answer. If true upgrades are available externally at a price that does not severely impact the future of the team then I'm all ears. As well, I think internal options need to be considered to improve the team.

But I do know that there is a chance we can win with what we have, and that making trades because we are bored is not an appropriate strategy.

AtomicDumpling
06-21-2011, 11:19 PM
Well considering that last year we won with basically the same team and have not aged dramatically, and are also 2.5 games out, ya, we might win with what we have.

Trading future pieces for suspect upgraded just "to do something" isn't the answer. If true upgrades are available externally at a price that does not severely impact the future of the team then I'm all ears. As well, I think internal options need to be considered to improve the team.

But I do know that there is a chance we can win with what we have, and that making trades because we are bored is not an appropriate strategy.

Yeah that is what I was suggesting. Nice quality post there. :laugh:

I guess you are happy with a team on auto-pilot.

If I were in charge I would have made some moves in the past couple years. Maybe you wouldn't. Jocketty hasn't either.

I don't think this team is good enough to win. Maybe if everything falls into place and nobody gets hurt and everybody gets 100% out of their ability then just maybe we will squeak into the playoffs and get blown away in the first round again. That is not a good enough plan in my opinion. We have plenty of quality trading chips, I would cash a few in and try to win. The recent history of the club says they will do nothing again.

Cedric
06-21-2011, 11:25 PM
Yeah that is what I was suggesting. Nice quality post there. :laugh:

I guess you are happy with a team on auto-pilot.

If I were in charge I would have made some moves in the past couple years. Maybe you wouldn't. Jocketty hasn't either.

I don't think this team is good enough to win. Maybe if everything falls into place and nobody gets hurt and everybody gets 100% out of their ability then just maybe we will squeak into the playoffs and get blown away in the first round again. That is not a good enough plan in my opinion. We have plenty of quality trading chips, I would cash a few in and try to win. The recent history of the club says they will do nothing again.
It sure seemed like that was his plan. If anyone here truly believes this Reds team has championship quality I would question their sanity or baseball intelligence.

This season was never going to end with a World Series title without acquiring a true ace and filling a few spots. I'm inclined through his own words to believe he didn't even attempt to move this off season. Maybe that's on ownership also?

The full blame/credit for this mediocre team goes to either ownership or the GM's doorstep.

Patrick Bateman
06-21-2011, 11:33 PM
Yeah that is what I was suggesting. Nice quality post there. :laugh:

I guess you are happy with a team on auto-pilot.

If I were in charge I would have made some moves in the past couple years. Maybe you wouldn't. Jocketty hasn't either.

I don't think this team is good enough to win. Maybe if everything falls into place and nobody gets hurt and everybody gets 100% out of their ability then just maybe we will squeak into the playoffs and get blown away in the first round again. That is not a good enough plan in my opinion. We have plenty of quality trading chips, I would cash a few in and try to win. The recent history of the club says they will do nothing again.

Actually all i'm suggesting is that transactions be evaluated basedon the specific identity of the pkayers involved. Saying the Reds should do SOMETHING without getting into specifics is difficult to evaluate the quality of the moves being discussed.

PuffyPig
06-22-2011, 12:06 AM
The Reds have the best run differential in the Central, buy quite a bit.

We have been the best team in the Central this year.

And that's likley to continue, as our starting pitching has been quite goos for some time.

We have the best depth in the Central by far, and that bodes very well as we get into the 2nd half.

nate
06-22-2011, 12:15 AM
The Reds have the best run differential in the Central, buy quite a bit.

We have been the best team in the Central this year.

And that's likley to continue, as our starting pitching has been quite goos for some time.

We have the best depth in the Central by far, and that bodes very well as we get into the 2nd half.

I'd say it's been good for the past two weeks, above average this month and bad this season.

It would be nice if the last two weeks or this month were indicative of what we'll see the rest of the season. I guess that's the question: do the Reds fix by waiting it out or try another course?

mth123
06-22-2011, 04:44 AM
Well considering that last year we won with basically the same team and have not aged dramatically, and are also 2.5 games out, ya, we might win with what we have.

Trading future pieces for suspect upgraded just "to do something" isn't the answer. If true upgrades are available externally at a price that does not severely impact the future of the team then I'm all ears. As well, I think internal options need to be considered to improve the team.

But I do know that there is a chance we can win with what we have, and that making trades because we are bored is not an appropriate strategy.

I guess it depends on your definition of winning. Last season was really nice. I'd rather have it than what we've had around here for 15 years or so. But it really was a year where almost everything went right, some guys played above their heads, they padded their record against some weak division opponents and ended the year as the biggest fish in a pond full of guppies.

So yeah, they won the Division and that is something and a nice start to a period of competitive teams. But, they moved on to a play-off round where they were obviously outclassed by a group of teams that they had proven all year to have very poor chances of winning against and were quickly sent packing. A repeat of that would be a huge disappointment. The fact that this roster "won" last year isn't reason for status quo.

I want them to control the division and enter the play-offs as a true championship caliber team. They won't do that without adding some things from the outside.

edabbs44
06-22-2011, 07:58 AM
So people don't want Reyes because he'll cost too much and is a free agent, but they also don't want to buy low on Hanley who has a LTC?

Whaaaaaaaa?

Hanley is a potential head case who was benched this week, taken to school by a lesser player on the team, has a Janish like OPS and has a fairly sizable contract tied to him for a few years.

Appetizing. I wonder if Cincy would be able to get him an the whole contract too for a few top minor leaguers.

I'm no fan of Reyes but I'd rather take him down than Hanley right now.

edabbs44
06-22-2011, 07:59 AM
It sure seemed like that was his plan. If anyone here truly believes this Reds team has championship quality I would question their sanity or baseball intelligence.

This season was never going to end with a World Series title without acquiring a true ace and filling a few spots. I'm inclined through his own words to believe he didn't even attempt to move this off season. Maybe that's on ownership also?

The full blame/credit for this mediocre team goes to either ownership or the GM's doorstep.

Do you think they need an "ace" to get to the playoffs or to get through the playoffs.

GoReds
06-22-2011, 09:01 AM
Hanley is a potential head case who was benched this week, taken to school by a lesser player on the team, has a Janish like OPS and has a fairly sizable contract tied to him for a few years.

Appetizing. I wonder if Cincy would be able to get him an the whole contract too for a few top minor leaguers.

I'm no fan of Reyes but I'd rather take him down than Hanley right now.

Isn't this really Jocketty's sweet spot? Pick up a player whose star has dimmed but still has talent and give him a new environment in which to turn things around?

I don't know much about the Marlins, but outside appearances were that Ramirez just couldn't get along with a couple managers/coaches. IMO, the players have more of an influence with regard to work ethic, how to play the game the right way, etc. Maybe the Marlins don't have that sort of leadership on their team.

We have the Rolen effect.

Get the Ramirez. There will never be a better time to make the move.

Benihana
06-22-2011, 09:47 AM
Isn't this really Jocketty's sweet spot? Pick up a player whose star has dimmed but still has talent and give him a new environment in which to turn things around?

I don't know much about the Marlins, but outside appearances were that Ramirez just couldn't get along with a couple managers/coaches. IMO, the players have more of an influence with regard to work ethic, how to play the game the right way, etc. Maybe the Marlins don't have that sort of leadership on their team.

We have the Rolen effect.

Get the Ramirez. There will never be a better time to make the move.

How about combining two ideas previously mentioned on this thread:

Trade all three of our Cubans (Chapman, Grandal, Alonso) and 1-2 other players (Cozart and Volquez?) for Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez.

Although we're operating in pure fantasyland at this point, someone tell me how that's not a great deal for both teams?

Call up Sappelt to play LF, and step back and watch the Reds battle the Phillies to be the NL Champs:

LF Sappelt
SS Ramirez
1B Votto
RF Bruce
CF Stubbs
2B Phillips
3B Rolen
C Hernanigan

SP Sanchez
SP Cueto
SP Leake
SP Arroyo
SP Bailey/Wood

(Not to mention next year's lineup, where with the addition of Mesoraco, Rolen or Phillips could be batting eighth :eek:)

Benihana
06-22-2011, 10:04 AM
FWIW, they are starting to clamor for the Fish to trade Hanley:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/marlins/commentary-florida-marlins-might-be-better-off-without-1553550.html
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/743396-hanley-ramirez-has-time-come-for-the-florida-marlins-to-cut-ties-with-all-star

The above trade proposal is quickly becoming my new battle cry. Trade our Cubans for Ramirez and Sanchez!

We could also send them Renteria to let him finish his career where he started it.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-22-2011, 10:57 AM
Trade all three of our Cubans (Chapman, Grandal, Alonso) and 1-2 other players (Cozart and Volquez?) for Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez.

I think this makes almost too much sense.

traderumor
06-22-2011, 11:24 AM
In this case, the Dominicans are better than Cubans? Apparently, baseball is not like cigars ;)

savafan
06-22-2011, 06:12 PM
How about combining two ideas previously mentioned on this thread:

Trade all three of our Cubans (Chapman, Grandal, Alonso) and 1-2 other players (Cozart and Volquez?) for Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez.

Although we're operating in pure fantasyland at this point, someone tell me how that's not a great deal for both teams?

Call up Sappelt to play LF, and step back and watch the Reds battle the Phillies to be the NL Champs:

LF Sappelt
SS Ramirez
1B Votto
RF Bruce
CF Stubbs
2B Phillips
3B Rolen
C Hernanigan

SP Sanchez
SP Cueto
SP Leake
SP Arroyo
SP Bailey/Wood

(Not to mention next year's lineup, where with the addition of Mesoraco, Rolen or Phillips could be batting eighth :eek:)


Talk about a slobber knocker. I'd hope that would be comparable to the Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar for Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez trade

kaldaniels
06-22-2011, 07:15 PM
I think this makes almost too much sense.

But it might not make too much.....cents.

reds44
06-22-2011, 07:49 PM
Chapman makes too much money and is too much of an unknown for the Marlins.

Right now, this team has one problem, and it's not the pitching.

cinreds21
06-22-2011, 07:54 PM
Chapman makes too much money and is too much of an unknown for the Marlins.

Right now, this team has one problem, and it's not the pitching.

They actually tried to get Chapman.

Superdude
06-22-2011, 08:01 PM
They actually tried to get Chapman.

Back when he wasn't a $30 million dollar triple A reliever.

Brutus
06-22-2011, 08:21 PM
Back when he wasn't a $30 million dollar triple A reliever.

Last I checked, he's 23 years old with just 120 professional innings pitched. Isn't that kind of label a bit prejudicial?

Mario-Rijo
06-22-2011, 08:27 PM
I'll believe the Reds are genuinely searching for anything when I see it happen.

mth123
06-22-2011, 08:52 PM
I'll believe the Reds are genuinely searching for anything when I see it happen.

Probably the best post on this board in a month or so.

savafan
06-22-2011, 09:03 PM
I'll believe the Reds are genuinely searching for anything when I see it happen.

Well, I saw Walt Jocketty searching through his desk drawers for his stapler, but the rumor is that Carl Lindner took it with him when they moved his desk to the basement of GABP.

Superdude
06-22-2011, 10:42 PM
Last I checked, he's 23 years old with just 120 professional innings pitched. Isn't that kind of label a bit prejudicial?

I was kidding...kind of.

Homer Bailey
06-23-2011, 12:23 PM
Greinke was the main guy I wanted and I see no reason why anyone wouldn't want him in this rotation now.

Sure, we'd all love him in the rotation. But saying it and making it happen are two different things. The cost would have been Stubbs + a lot more, and you have to find away to pay him $27M over the next two years.

Fantasy world.

OnBaseMachine
06-27-2011, 07:29 PM
From Jon Morosi:

Source says “a lot of clubs” already showing interest in #Dodgers RHP Hiroki Kuroda. #Rockies and #Reds had scouts at his most recent start.

http://twitter.com/jonmorosi

I'd much rather have Chad Billingsley but Kuroda would be a solid pickup. I prefer him to Jeremy Guthrie.

Brutus
06-27-2011, 07:48 PM
From Jon Morosi:

Source says “a lot of clubs” already showing interest in #Dodgers RHP Hiroki Kuroda. #Rockies and #Reds had scouts at his most recent start.

http://twitter.com/jonmorosi

I'd much rather have Chad Billingsley but Kuroda would be a solid pickup. I prefer him to Jeremy Guthrie.

Yeah I would rather have Billingsley too, as he's more talented and actually keeps the ball lower more often than Kuroda, but he's pretty inconsistent. With Kuroda, I think the Reds would at least know what they're getting from one game to the next. Either one would be a solid addition.

AtomicDumpling
06-27-2011, 08:28 PM
From Jon Morosi:

Source says “a lot of clubs” already showing interest in #Dodgers RHP Hiroki Kuroda. #Rockies and #Reds had scouts at his most recent start.

http://twitter.com/jonmorosi

I'd much rather have Chad Billingsley but Kuroda would be a solid pickup. I prefer him to Jeremy Guthrie.

Hiroki Kuroda would be an excellent addition to our rotation. He is a consistent, smart and effective pitcher. He would also be a good example and mentor to our young pitchers.

I imagine the Dodgers would love to get their hands on Yonder Alonso to replace the disappointing James Loney.

Kuroda is a free agent after this year, is making $12 million this year and has a no-trade clause. Given that he would be a rental with a high salary I doubt it would cost the Reds much more than Alonso to get Kuroda -- especially with the Dodgers in financial crisis after their owner pillaged their assets.

Superdude
06-27-2011, 08:39 PM
I'm down for Kuroda. Alonso seems a bit steep, but we've gotta cash him in for something IMO. I'm pretty sick of harboring ML ready talent in AAA.

757690
06-27-2011, 08:50 PM
Ramirez’s stock “has dropped to Enron levels.” Some rival evaluators say that his poor start is more than a slump and that the shortstop needs to improve his physical condition.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/06/olney-on-hanley-phillies-ellis.html#disqus_thread

signalhome
06-27-2011, 10:24 PM
From Jon Morosi:

Source says “a lot of clubs” already showing interest in #Dodgers RHP Hiroki Kuroda. #Rockies and #Reds had scouts at his most recent start.

http://twitter.com/jonmorosi

I'd much rather have Chad Billingsley but Kuroda would be a solid pickup. I prefer him to Jeremy Guthrie.

Kuroda would be a great addition, though yeah, I'd much rather have Billingsley. Kuroda is outperforming his FIP and xFIP by a good margin this year, but even if he were to fall back to somewhere around his FIP (3.83), that's still pretty good, and a 3.83 ERA would be better than everyone in the Reds rotation, save Cueto. As someone said earlier, Alonso is a bit steep for a few months of Kuroda, but it may be worth it. If I were Jocketty I'd push very hard for Billingsley, but Kuroda would be a very nice consolation prize.

Brutus
06-27-2011, 10:26 PM
Kuroda would be a great addition, though yeah, I'd much rather have Billingsley. Kuroda is outperforming his FIP and xFIP by a good margin this year, but even if he were to fall back to somewhere around his FIP (3.83), that's still pretty good, and a 3.83 ERA would be better than everyone in the Reds rotation, save Cueto. As someone said earlier, Alonso is a bit steep for a few months of Kuroda, but it may be worth it. If I were Jocketty I'd push very hard for Billingsley, but Kuroda would be a very nice consolation prize.

Mike Leake is 3.84 and Homer Bailey is 3.86, so you're technically right but only by a hair lol :)

PuffyPig
06-27-2011, 10:55 PM
Right now, this team has one problem, and it's not the pitching.

It's certainly not the hitting.

Our lead in runs scored in the NL has increased to 19 over the Cards and 29 over the Diamondbacks.

Perhaps you were referring to something else.

Fans with unreasonable expections?

Our run differential is #2 in the NL. We keep this up and we will find ourselves back in first one of these days.

signalhome
06-27-2011, 11:10 PM
It's certainly not the hitting.

Our lead in runs scored in the NL has increased to 19 over the Cards and 29 over the Diamondbacks.

Perhaps you were referring to something else.

Fans with unreasonable expections?

Our run differential is #2 in the NL. We keep this up and we will find ourselves back in first one of these days.

I think everyone's problem -- or at least the problem I hear voiced the most -- is the lack of consistency from the offense. However, it seems to me that every offense goes through this. Nobody scores five runs every game. Sometimes you'll score ten and sometimes you'll score one or none. The Reds may be slightly worse than the rest of the league at consistency (I've honestly no idea), but even then, the point remains that the Reds have a very solid offense. The good offenses are the offenses capable of putting up a lot of runs in any given game, and I think the Reds can certainly do that; those offensive explosions are necessary when your starter doesn't exactly give you a top-notch performance. A good example of this was the second game against Baltimore, when Arroyo gave up five, but the Reds still won thanks to putting up a ten-spot.

They'll also struggle against good pitching, sure, but again, isn't that something that every team goes through? Your offense is supposed to be worse against great pitchers. While there are certainly areas that could be and should be improved on the offensive side (like SS), the offense is fine. As you said, if the Reds keep up that run differential, they'll make the postseason. That being said, I'd love for them to make a big acquisition in hopes of making a deep postseason run, whether it be for a good-hitting SS (Reyes, Hardy) or another solid arm in the rotation (Billingsley).

REDblooded
06-27-2011, 11:15 PM
I'm also more concerned with the Reds hitting than their pitching... The inconsistency is painful. Yes they're prone to go on massive outbursts, but there are too many players on the squad as it's currently constructed that you can't count on for a big hit, or to move runners and put pressure on the defense...

Many of the main bats the Reds count on are prone to massive slumps, and when that happens it surely doesn't look like a top offense. We need a few high OBP guys that get on base with regularity and give our power hitters better pitches to look at.

traderumor
06-27-2011, 11:25 PM
I'm guessing we could search the archives and see the same thing said about the Dunn/Griffey et al. offense, when the only thing that makes their production appear inconsistent is the unreliability of the pitching. It's the reverse of all the handwringing TV announcers make about "run support" for pitchers. They look at the pitcher's record and start talking about run support, as if it has any relevance at all to the pitcher's performance. On the flip side is the offense, who is now a season and a half into being a top 3 offense in the league and they still aren't doing their job well enough.

Still.....

ITS THE PITCHING namely the starting pitching that has led to the floundering of the 2011 edition of the Reds.

This weekend, we score 4-10-5, and why did we lose the two? Starters got us behind early, offense chasing. Saturday and tonight? We get starting pitching, coast to victories. Starting pitching give up early runs, not able to come back most nights.

PuffyPig
06-27-2011, 11:28 PM
I'm also more concerned with the Reds hitting than their pitching... The inconsistency is painful. Yes they're prone to go on massive outbursts, but there are too many players on the squad as it's currently constructed that you can't count on for a big hit, or to move runners and put pressure on the defense...

Many of the main bats the Reds count on are prone to massive slumps, and when that happens it surely doesn't look like a top offense. We need a few high OBP guys that get on base with regularity and give our power hitters better pitches to look at.

Second best OBA in the NL.

All offenses are inconsistent.

Our OPS is 4th best in the NL , yet we have scored, by far, the most runs.

That means we are making the most of our opportunites.

signalhome
06-27-2011, 11:47 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=0&season=2011&month=29&season1=2011

The Reds have the third-best wOBA, third-best OPS, and fourth-best AVG in all of baseball with RISP. As PuffyPig said, they are making the most of their opportunities. If anything, the Reds have outperformed their expected offensive output.

Brutus
06-27-2011, 11:50 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=0&season=2011&month=29&season1=2011

The Reds have the third-best wOBA, third-best OPS, and fourth-best AVG in all of baseball with RISP. As PuffyPig said, they are making the most of their opportunities. If anything, the Reds have outperformed their expected offensive output.

How the runs are distributed does matter, however. It is a factor and the Reds are slightly below average in that department.

So consistency, while not everything, is still important.

signalhome
06-27-2011, 11:52 PM
The Reds rank 28th in MLB with a 4.29 FIP. Their SP FIP is 4.43, good for 29th.

They really aren't much better with ERA. Overall ERA is 4.12 (24th) and SP ERA is 4.54 (26th).

To me, it seems that pitching has been the problem this year, not the offense.

signalhome
06-28-2011, 12:15 AM
How the runs are distributed does matter, however. It is a factor and the Reds are slightly below average in that department.

So consistency, while not everything, is still important.

2011 NL Run Distribution (http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/inning_summary.cgi?year_game=2011&team_id=CIN#gotresults&year=2011&team_id=NL&ajax=1&submitter=1)

2011 Cincinnati Run Distribution (http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/inning_summary.cgi?year_game=2011&team_id=CIN#gotresults&year=2011&team_id=CIN&ajax=1&submitter=1)

This year, NL teams have a winning record when scoring over four runs and a losing record when scoring four runs or less, so four runs or less seems to be a pretty good measuring stick. Out of 1254 games this year, NL teams have scored four runs or fewer 777 times for a 62% average. By contrast, the Reds have scored four runs or fewer 41 times out of 79 games, which is a 52% average. Judging by that, it appears the Reds are putting themselves in a position to win at a better rate than the average NL team, so I wouldn't say they're below average with their run distribution. For comparison, the Cardinals (#2 in runs in the NL), are pretty even with the Reds, scoring four runs or fewer 53% of the time. The Diamondbacks, who are #3 in the NL in runs, are far worse, scoring four runs or fewer 62% of the time. Again, it seems to me that the Reds are doing a pretty good job of scoring runs on a consistent basis.

The Reds' true problem, it seems, is that their W-L% is far worse than league average when scoring four runs or fewer, which gives the appearance of offensive inconsistency. The NL average W-L% for games in which the offense scores four runs or fewer is 31%. The Reds, however, are only winning 24% of games where they score four runs or fewer. Again, the problem is poor pitching.

Edit: Decided to go through and check out the rest of the NL's percentage of games in which the offense scores four runs or fewer. Arranged by runs scored for the season.

Reds: 52%
Cardinals: 53%
Diamondbacks 62%
Brewers: 56%
Rockies: 57%
Mets: 60%
Phillies: 63%
Astros: 67%
Cubs: 65%
Braves: 66%
Nationals: 65%
Dodgers: 66%
Marlins: 60%
Pirates: 62%
Padres: 69%
Giants: 69%

To recap, this year in the NL the average team's W-L% drops below .500 when scoring four runs (or, of course, fewer) and goes above .500 when scoring five runs (or, of course, more). The Reds have scored enough runs to put themselves in a good position to win more than anyone else in the NL.

Brutus
06-28-2011, 12:43 AM
2011 NL Run Distribution (http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/inning_summary.cgi?year_game=2011&team_id=CIN#gotresults&year=2011&team_id=NL&ajax=1&submitter=1)

2011 Cincinnati Run Distribution (http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/inning_summary.cgi?year_game=2011&team_id=CIN#gotresults&year=2011&team_id=CIN&ajax=1&submitter=1)

This year, NL teams have a winning record when scoring over four runs and a losing record when scoring four runs or less, so four runs or less seems to be a pretty good measuring stick. Out of 1254 games this year, NL teams have scored four runs or fewer 777 times for a 62% average. By contrast, the Reds have scored four runs or fewer 41 times out of 79 games, which is a 52% average. Judging by that, it appears the Reds are putting themselves in a position to win at a better rate than the average NL team, so I wouldn't say they're below average with their run distribution. For comparison, the Cardinals (#2 in runs in the NL), are pretty even with the Reds, scoring four runs or fewer 53% of the time. The Diamondbacks, who are #3 in the NL in runs, are far worse, scoring four runs or fewer 62% of the time. Again, it seems to me that the Reds are doing a pretty good job of scoring runs on a consistent basis.

The Reds' true problem, it seems, is that their W-L% is far worse than league average when scoring four runs or fewer, which gives the appearance of offensive inconsistency. The NL average W-L% for games in which the offense scores four runs or fewer is 31%. The Reds, however, are only winning 24% of games where they score four runs or fewer. Again, the problem is poor pitching.

Edit: Decided to go through and check out the rest of the NL's percentage of games in which the offense scores four runs or fewer. Arranged by runs scored for the season.

Reds: 52%
Cardinals: 53%
Diamondbacks 62%
Brewers: 56%
Rockies: 57%
Mets: 60%
Phillies: 63%
Astros: 67%
Cubs: 65%
Braves: 66%
Nationals: 65%
Dodgers: 66%
Marlins: 60%
Pirates: 62%
Padres: 69%
Giants: 69%

To recap, this year in the NL the average team's W-L% drops below .500 when scoring four runs (or, of course, fewer) and goes above .500 when scoring five runs (or, of course, more). The Reds have scored enough runs to put themselves in a good position to win more than anyone else in the NL.

I posted this last week, but the Reds have the worst run distribution in the NL Central by measure of standard deviation. That means their runs are distributed more widely than any of their competitors in the division (i.e. they score runs further above or below their own average in the majority of their games).

That said, using the league averages you provided by number of runs scored by the league, the Reds would have a 45-34 record if their average winning percentage matched the league run distribution winning percentages for each run type. In other words, adding up the sum of the league average based on each number of runs that has been scored in a game, they should have a .574 as opposed to .506. Of course, that doesn't take into account the number of runs allowed, so that doesn't tell the whole story, but since we're just talking the number of runs they've scored and how they've scored them, it's relevant.

So your numbers have some merit, but they do have a below-average distribution based on the standard deviation league-wide this year (which is about 2.9 runs and they were around 2.95 as of last week when I tested it last).

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-28-2011, 12:46 AM
I'm guessing we could search the archives and see the same thing said about the Dunn/Griffey et al. offense, when the only thing that makes their production appear inconsistent is the unreliability of the pitching. It's the reverse of all the handwringing TV announcers make about "run support" for pitchers. They look at the pitcher's record and start talking about run support, as if it has any relevance at all to the pitcher's performance. On the flip side is the offense, who is now a season and a half into being a top 3 offense in the league and they still aren't doing their job well enough.

Still.....

ITS THE PITCHING namely the starting pitching that has led to the floundering of the 2011 edition of the Reds.

This weekend, we score 4-10-5, and why did we lose the two? Starters got us behind early, offense chasing. Saturday and tonight? We get starting pitching, coast to victories. Starting pitching give up early runs, not able to come back most nights.

And the first five games of the most recent homestand against a collection of mediocre pitchers we score 2-0-2-3-2 and give up only 3-4-1-5-4, losing four of five.

Both sides can cherry pick streaks of games to prove their point. But regardless of a few outlier games where they put up 10 runs in true pile-on fashion, the offense remains a significant problem.

If you don't believe that it's a problem right now because we're on one of our patented 1-game winning streaks, just wait a game or two ...

Homer Bailey
06-28-2011, 01:19 AM
And the first five games of the most recent homestand against a collection of mediocre pitchers we score 2-0-2-3-2 and give up only 3-4-1-5-4, losing four of five.

Both sides can cherry pick streaks of games to prove their point. But regardless of a few outlier games where they put up 10 runs in true pile-on fashion, the offense remains a significant problem.

If you don't believe that it's a problem right now because we're on one of our patented 1-game winning streaks, just wait a game or two ...

The ones that are cherry picking are those that select five and ten games samples. The ones who aren't cherry picking are the ones talking about the entire season.

mth123
06-28-2011, 01:48 AM
I'm not sure I understand the either/or stuff that people insist on. 80 Games into the season the Reds are 2 games over .500 and sitting in 3rd place. The way to improve that is to look at where the weak points are and improve as many of them as you can.

The Reds need more consistency and certainty in the rotation which is filled with question marks arising from injury and inexperience. The Reds need a bat to hit in the middle of the order who can protect Bruce and Votto and insulate the overall production from such peaks and valleys. The Reds are inadequate at SS. These aren't new problems. They existed last year, they existed at the Winter Meetings, they existed in Spring Training and they are playing out now. Addressing any one of these will improve the overall result. The sum of the parts provides a decent run differential and projects to 786 runs scored which is pretty good and leads the league but its hardly a super offense that can't be improved. There are plenty of years where teams score well over 800 runs. Given the offensive environment that the Reds play in and the fact that multiple slots in the rotation are not likely to be improved, adding offense to increase the likelihood the Reds score enough runs to win on the days where the pitching is competitive will only help the overall record.

AtomicDumpling
06-28-2011, 03:57 AM
Yeah I agree. An extra run scored has the same net effect as an extra run prevented. Just because the pitching is far worse than the offense doesn't mean the Reds shouldn't try to improve the offense -- especially because it would be so easy to upgrade at shortstop by making Cozart the starter. It doesn't require an increase in payroll or trading away a good prospect, it is merely making the best use of the assets the Reds already have.

REDblooded
06-28-2011, 05:35 AM
I'm not sure I understand the either/or stuff that people insist on. 80 Games into the season the Reds are 2 games over .500 and sitting in 3rd place. The way to improve that is to look at where the weak points are and improve as many of them as you can.

The Reds need more consistency and certainty in the rotation which is filled with question marks arising from injury and inexperience. The Reds need a bat to hit in the middle of the order who can protect Bruce and Votto and insulate the overall production from such peaks and valleys. The Reds are inadequate at SS. These aren't new problems. They existed last year, they existed at the Winter Meetings, they existed in Spring Training and they are playing out now. Addressing any one of these will improve the overall result. The sum of the parts provides a decent run differential and projects to 786 runs scored which is pretty good and leads the league but its hardly a super offense that can't be improved. There are plenty of years where teams score well over 800 runs. Given the offensive environment that the Reds play in and the fact that multiple slots in the rotation are not likely to be improved, adding offense to increase the likelihood the Reds score enough runs to win on the days where the pitching is competitive will only help the overall record.


Definitely agree with this post...

I lean towards improving the offense because I don't see any huge upgrades anywhere in regards to available pitching talent...

As for the offense, it puts up runs in spurts, but we have two pretty glaring holes in our line-up where to this point the quality of defense rendered at those two spots doesn't justify not trying to make a move to improve at least one of those two areas (LF and SS).

And while the offense has the ability to put up runs in bunches, outside of Votto it's composed of pretty streaky parts. Toss in a LF'r that can protect the middle of the line-up, and suddenly the pitching isn't as great of a concern...

membengal
06-28-2011, 07:49 AM
I'm not sure I understand the either/or stuff that people insist on. 80 Games into the season the Reds are 2 games over .500 and sitting in 3rd place. The way to improve that is to look at where the weak points are and improve as many of them as you can.

The Reds need more consistency and certainty in the rotation which is filled with question marks arising from injury and inexperience. The Reds need a bat to hit in the middle of the order who can protect Bruce and Votto and insulate the overall production from such peaks and valleys. The Reds are inadequate at SS. These aren't new problems. They existed last year, they existed at the Winter Meetings, they existed in Spring Training and they are playing out now. Addressing any one of these will improve the overall result. The sum of the parts provides a decent run differential and projects to 786 runs scored which is pretty good and leads the league but its hardly a super offense that can't be improved. There are plenty of years where teams score well over 800 runs. Given the offensive environment that the Reds play in and the fact that multiple slots in the rotation are not likely to be improved, adding offense to increase the likelihood the Reds score enough runs to win on the days where the pitching is competitive will only help the overall record.

Dead on, mth. It's not an either/or situation. The ballclub can be improved on multiple fronts. At two games over .500, there is room for improvement.

traderumor
06-28-2011, 08:36 AM
And the first five games of the most recent homestand against a collection of mediocre pitchers we score 2-0-2-3-2 and give up only 3-4-1-5-4, losing four of five.

Both sides can cherry pick streaks of games to prove their point. But regardless of a few outlier games where they put up 10 runs in true pile-on fashion, the offense remains a significant problem.

If you don't believe that it's a problem right now because we're on one of our patented 1-game winning streaks, just wait a game or two ...I made the point in the post that this offense has been doing this for a season and a half. That is hardly cherry picking. The reference to a few recent games highlight the point.

Last season, this offense led the league in scoring. The pitching was league average. The defense was the best in the league. The Reds go to the playoffs.

This season, at the halfway point now, this same offense is leading the league in scoring. The pitching is third from last in the league. The defense is best in the league. The Reds are floundering at .500.

Those are simple facts, with pushing 250 games of history. This is a team that is tops in the league in offensive and defensive categories, and only average pitching gets it to the playoffs. So, it is really difficult to be convincing that "improving the offense" is the highest priority, when it is clearly mediocre at best, bad at worst, starting pitching that is determining this team's fate night in and night out.

And while they (the starters) have had a couple of good weeks here and there, if you want to talk about inconsistency, there you go. The problem is, can they do anything about what the real problem is?

nate
06-28-2011, 10:42 AM
And the first five games of the most recent homestand against a collection of mediocre pitchers we score 2-0-2-3-2 and give up only 3-4-1-5-4, losing four of five.

Both sides can cherry pick streaks of games to prove their point. But regardless of a few outlier games where they put up 10 runs in true pile-on fashion, the offense remains a significant problem.

If you don't believe that it's a problem right now because we're on one of our patented 1-game winning streaks, just wait a game or two ...

If you're using five games to make your point about the season, you're cherry picking.

Homer Bailey
06-28-2011, 10:48 AM
I made the point in the post that this offense has been doing this for a season and a half. That is hardly cherry picking. The reference to a few recent games highlight the point.

Last season, this offense led the league in scoring. The pitching was league average. The defense was the best in the league. The Reds go to the playoffs.

This season, at the halfway point now, this same offense is leading the league in scoring. The pitching is third from last in the league. The defense is best in the league. The Reds are floundering at .500.

Those are simple facts, with pushing 250 games of history. This is a team that is tops in the league in offensive and defensive categories, and only average pitching gets it to the playoffs. So, it is really difficult to be convincing that "improving the offense" is the highest priority, when it is clearly mediocre at best, bad at worst, starting pitching that is determining this team's fate night in and night out.

And while they (the starters) have had a couple of good weeks here and there, if you want to talk about inconsistency, there you go. The problem is, can they do anything about what the real problem is?

:thumbup:

bucksfan2
06-28-2011, 12:17 PM
If you're using five games to make your point about the season, you're cherry picking.

At what point do we begin to say that these five game stretches after five game stretches of putrid offense highlighted by a big run output are problem some? At what point do we say SS + SS + SS = BSS (Big Sample Size)?

mattfeet
06-28-2011, 12:42 PM
Reds are interested in Hiroki Kuroda as per MLB Trade Rumors.

-Matt

traderumor
06-28-2011, 12:44 PM
At what point do we begin to say that these five game stretches after five game stretches of putrid offense highlighted by a big run output are problem some? At what point do we say SS + SS + SS = BSS (Big Sample Size)?At the point that it is true, I imagine. This team scores a lot of runs, more than any team in the league. 250 games its been that way. Now, there's a trend.

It also gives up a lot of runs, something that is partially masked by the defense. That is who this team is. Fix the truly weak link with the limited resources you have without weakening the strengths and the GM has done the best he can do. The starting rotation performing better, whoever tosses the innings is moot, is the key to making the playoffs this season. I'm confident the other two facets of the game with this roster is a constant at this point.

traderumor
06-28-2011, 12:46 PM
Reds are interested in Hiroki Kuroda as per MLB Trade Rumors.

-MattHopefully his recent slide is a slump if they do get him. He has a pretty good track record that might be an improvement to the rotation. Any idea what the cost is?

PuffyPig
06-28-2011, 01:31 PM
At what point do we begin to say that these five game stretches after five game stretches of putrid offense highlighted by a big run output are problem some?

I'd say at the point where your actual statement had some truth to it.....

mattfeet
06-28-2011, 02:02 PM
Hopefully his recent slide is a slump if they do get him. He has a pretty good track record that might be an improvement to the rotation. Any idea what the cost is?

He's apparently due $8mil this year, so call it $4mil outright for 1/2 year rental. Not sure what he'd extend for, and Im not sure Id want to extend a guy that's already pushing 40.

Also heard this: Yankees interested in Dontrelle Willis. Their rotation is floundering, on a good day, and Willis hasn't been pitching badly. What do you guys think we could get in return?

-Matt

Hoosier Red
06-28-2011, 02:35 PM
At the point that it is true, I imagine. This team scores a lot of runs, more than any team in the league. 250 games its been that way. Now, there's a trend.

It also gives up a lot of runs, something that is partially masked by the defense. That is who this team is. Fix the truly weak link with the limited resources you have without weakening the strengths and the GM has done the best he can do. The starting rotation performing better, whoever tosses the innings is moot, is the key to making the playoffs this season. I'm confident the other two facets of the game with this roster is a constant at this point.

That hasn't really happened very often. For instance, The Reds have played 77 different 3 game stretches(Games 1-3, 2-4, et al.) And they've had only 13 times where they've gone a 3 game stretch scoring fewer than 9 runs total(3 runs/game.)
They've had only 7 four game stretches where they've scored fewer than 12 runs total. In each instance, 4 of those stretches occurred starting at game 69(A 3-2 win over the Dodgers) and ending with game 75(a 4-2 loss to the Yankees.)

Aside from that, it has been very unusual to see this offense get held down for any three or four game stretch.

As I mentioned ina previous post, one problem the Reds do have is winning the low scoring games.

The Reds have played 31 games where they've scored 3 runs or fewer.
The National League average is 38. The Cardinals have had 32, the Brewers 30.

The difference is the average NL team has one 25% of their games when scoring 3 runs or fewer. The Brewers have won 7 of 30, the Reds have won 7 of 31(roughly 23%.) The Cardinals have won 11 out of the 32 games where they've scored 3 runs or fewer(about 35%.)

This is one of the reasons I believe St.Louis is likely to fade down the stretch.

NJReds
06-28-2011, 02:36 PM
Also heard this: Yankees interested in Dontrelle Willis. Their rotation is floundering, on a good day, and Willis hasn't been pitching badly. What do you guys think we could get in return?

-Matt

Chris Dickerson ... j/k

Not sure what you'd get or what you'd want from the Yanks. Their high level prospects are out of the question. No SS or LF prospects to speak of, either. I'm guessing you'd get some minor league filler.

Not sure why they want Willis with Hughes and Colon coming back soon. Unless it's as a LH out of the pen and insurance against a starter going down.

Hoosier Red
06-28-2011, 02:36 PM
He's apparently due $8mil this year, so call it $4mil outright for 1/2 year rental. Not sure what he'd extend for, and Im not sure Id want to extend a guy that's already pushing 40.

Also heard this: Yankees interested in Dontrelle Willis. Their rotation is floundering, on a good day, and Willis hasn't been pitching badly. What do you guys think we could get in return?

-Matt

Some prospect who is more than likely going to flame out.
:)

Roy Tucker
06-28-2011, 02:41 PM
Chris Dickerson ... j/k

Not sure what you'd get or what you'd want from the Yanks. Their high level prospects are out of the question. No SS or LF prospects to speak of, either. I'm guessing you'd get some minor league filler.

Not sure why they want Willis with Hughes and Colon coming back soon. Unless it's as a LH out of the pen and insurance against a starter going down.

Drew Henson, Jackson Melian, Ed Yarnall.

bucksfan2
06-28-2011, 02:45 PM
I'd say at the point where your actual statement had some truth to it.....

I keep seeing that the Reds have the best run differential or the Reds pythag is this, but the reality is they have been middling around ever since they left for Philly. They have been hovering around the 2 game over mark for the better part of a month. While there is reason to be hopeful there is also cause for concern.

I fear that we will keep hearing "the offense is the best in the league" as this team slips farther and father away from contention.

traderumor
06-28-2011, 02:54 PM
I keep seeing that the Reds have the best run differential or the Reds pythag is this, but the reality is they have been middling around ever since they left for Philly. They have been hovering around the 2 game over mark for the better part of a month. While there is reason to be hopeful there is also cause for concern.

I fear that we will keep hearing "the offense is the best in the league" as this team slips farther and father away from contention.The cause of that hovering? Inconsistent and underperforming starting pitching. Its been better, but still giving up too many runs, esp. early runs.

757690
06-28-2011, 03:11 PM
The question is going forward, not looking back, what area has the most room room for improvement, and what area can be improved most effeciently.

Certainly the starting pitching has been disappointing so far, but signs are that it is improving, Volquez really is the only weak link currently, and he hasn't been awful, just inconsistent.

I think the best way to improve the team is get a big bat, either to leadoff, or to hit in the middle of the order. I actually see the Reds scoring les runs in the future if they don't get a big bat. Lots of players are slumping, and adding a new bat into the mix would spark most of them. Plus, there are a lot more good bats available than good arms.

Red Leader
06-28-2011, 03:26 PM
Drew Henson, Jackson Melian, Ed Yarnall.

Maybe we could have them go back in time and rescind the Dave Collins/Ken Griffey to NYY trade. That one killed me when I was a kid. Two of my favorite players traded to my least favorite team at the time.

Benihana
06-28-2011, 03:28 PM
He's apparently due $8mil this year, so call it $4mil outright for 1/2 year rental. Not sure what he'd extend for, and Im not sure Id want to extend a guy that's already pushing 40.

Also heard this: Yankees interested in Dontrelle Willis. Their rotation is floundering, on a good day, and Willis hasn't been pitching badly. What do you guys think we could get in return?

-Matt

Drew Brackman, the local kid who has struggled and rates as a C+ prospect at best at this point. That's who I'd ask for anyway. Otherwise, Willis has more value as a backup option for us.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-28-2011, 03:39 PM
The question is going forward, not looking back, what area has the most room room for improvement, and what area can be improved most effeciently.

Certainly the starting pitching has been disappointing so far, but signs are that it is improving, Volquez really is the only weak link currently, and he hasn't been awful, just inconsistent.

I think the best way to improve the team is get a big bat, either to leadoff, or to hit in the middle of the order. I actually see the Reds scoring les runs in the future if they don't get a big bat. Lots of players are slumping, and adding a new bat into the mix would spark most of them. Plus, there are a lot more good bats available than good arms.

He's been flat-out awful. Putting your team down big early in games, concentration lapses, stressing the bullpen and other starters, lack of control, a shoulder-shrugging indifference to repeated failures and the general all-around malaise that seems to surround him whenever he's on the mound would be a little more than just inconsistent.

Benihana
06-28-2011, 03:41 PM
Drew Henson, Jackson Melian, Ed Yarnall.

Don't forget Brian Reith. He's the key to the whole thing!

signalhome
06-28-2011, 03:48 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/anibal-sanchez-the-race-changer/


The Reds could turn their focus to Sanchez and put together a strong offer without having to take on an encumbering salary that might bust their budget.

I'd love to pick up Sanchez. He has been lights-out this year. Might be a bit costly, but the Reds would have him under control for next season as well. I definitely like him a lot more than Guthrie.

traderumor
06-28-2011, 03:52 PM
The question is going forward, not looking back, what area has the most room room for improvement, and what area can be improved most effeciently.

Certainly the starting pitching has been disappointing so far, but signs are that it is improving, Volquez really is the only weak link currently, and he hasn't been awful, just inconsistent.

I think the best way to improve the team is get a big bat, either to leadoff, or to hit in the middle of the order. I actually see the Reds scoring les runs in the future if they don't get a big bat. Lots of players are slumping, and adding a new bat into the mix would spark most of them. Plus, there are a lot more good bats available than good arms.Why wouldn't you want to look back to inform what is going to happen going forward?

Don't you think that 242 games of history with a particular group of players is going to be a reliable predictor for what is going to happen the rest of the season?

Who's to say the replacement(s) are going to provide enough production to offset starting pitching that has wavered between below average and average over that same time span, and by the same rule, is going to continue that level of performance without a "big arm"?

But, the rub to all this is what the Reds can do, versus what is Plan A, Plan B, etc.

Plan A to me would be big arm. Probably not available without blowing up the strengths of the team.

Plan B would be to find a steady starter who can give you Arroyo-like performance. Probably can happen with prospects as the centerpiece.

Plan C would be to get another bat, probably costing you the same as Plan A, and hit and hope game after game, just like the lost decade. That didn't work out so well, but that seems to be where many wish to return.

traderumor
06-28-2011, 03:53 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/anibal-sanchez-the-race-changer/



I'd love to pick up Sanchez. He has been lights-out this year. Might be a bit costly, but the Reds would have him under control for next season as well. I definitely like him a lot more than Guthrie.Isn't he injured?

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2011, 04:02 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/anibal-sanchez-the-race-changer/



I'd love to pick up Sanchez. He has been lights-out this year. Might be a bit costly, but the Reds would have him under control for next season as well. I definitely like him a lot more than Guthrie.

Anibal Sanchez would make the Reds legit World Series contenders...

Puffy
06-28-2011, 04:23 PM
Isn't he injured?

I don't believe so - I know he threw 6 innings of run run ball this past Sunday (6/26)

westofyou
06-28-2011, 04:25 PM
I don't believe so - I know he threw 6 innings of run run ball this past Sunday (6/26)

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/06/26/SPPO1K2PUN.DTL



On Friday night, struggling Jonathan Sanchez said, "There's nothing wrong with me. I'm fine. I'm healthy. I'm just having a hard time getting the ball over the plate."

On Saturday morning, the Giants placed Sanchez on the disabled list with left biceps tendinitis.

After it was announced, the pitcher admitted he felt something in his arm his past three starts, saying, "No pain. Just feeling kind of sore." He was hoping to pitch through it three more times before the All-Star break. But after he met with manager Bruce Bochy and pitching coach Dave Righetti, he was shelved.

757690
06-28-2011, 04:27 PM
Why wouldn't you want to look back to inform what is going to happen going forward?

Don't you think that 242 games of history with a particular group of players is going to be a reliable predictor for what is going to happen the rest of the season?

Who's to say the replacement(s) are going to provide enough production to offset starting pitching that has wavered between below average and average over that same time span, and by the same rule, is going to continue that level of performance without a "big arm"?

But, the rub to all this is what the Reds can do, versus what is Plan A, Plan B, etc.

Plan A to me would be big arm. Probably not available without blowing up the strengths of the team.

Plan B would be to find a steady starter who can give you Arroyo-like performance. Probably can happen with prospects as the centerpiece.

Plan C would be to get another bat, probably costing you the same as Plan A, and hit and hope game after game, just like the lost decade. That didn't work out so well, but that seems to be where many wish to return.

It's hard to look at the past and not conclude that going forward, the Reds will have a much better rotation than in their previous year and a half.

1. Cueto is a new pitcher. More break on his slider, better control, going deeper into games, more confidence.

2. Leake is a better pitcher now than he was the second half of last year, and than he was all of last year for that matter.

3. Arroyo is the same.

4. Bailey has been better if he is healthy.

5. Volquez is pitching pretty much like Harang last year.

All that translate into a very solid rotation and one that should be much better than it has the first half of this season, and all of last season.

Teams always need pitching, so another starting pitcher would be nice, but it doesn't seem to bring the same improvement that adding a full time, veteran, above average LF would bring.

Puffy
06-28-2011, 04:53 PM
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/06/26/SPPO1K2PUN.DTL

Weren't we talking about Anibel Sanchez and not Jonathan??

OldXOhio
06-28-2011, 04:54 PM
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/06/26/SPPO1K2PUN.DTL

wrong Sanchez

westofyou
06-28-2011, 04:54 PM
Weren't we talking about Anibel Sanchez and not Jonathan??

I was stuck on Dirty Sanchez... my bad

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-28-2011, 05:04 PM
Anibal Sanchez would make the Reds legit World Series contenders...

Anibal Sanchez plus another bat.

:beerme:

OldXOhio
06-28-2011, 05:08 PM
It's hard to look at the past and not conclude that going forward, the Reds will have a much better rotation than in their previous year and a half.

1. Cueto is a new pitcher. More break on his slider, better control, going deeper into games, more confidence.

2. Leake is a better pitcher now than he was the second half of last year, and than he was all of last year for that matter.

3. Arroyo is the same.

4. Bailey has been better if he is healthy.

5. Volquez is pitching pretty much like Harang last year.

All that translate into a very solid rotation and one that should be much better than it has the first half of this season, and all of last season.

Teams always need pitching, so another starting pitcher would be nice, but it doesn't seem to bring the same improvement that adding a full time, veteran, above average LF would bring.

Bailey can't stay healthy, Volquez can't find the plate, Arroyo is a 3 or 4 at best who's pitched more like a 5, Leake has done well as a middle of the rotation type. That doesn't leave me feeling very confident about our chances down the stretch, much less in a playoff series if this team were even able to make it that far. Any hope of having an above average rotation in its present form is pure speculation.

Edd Roush
06-28-2011, 05:08 PM
It's hard to look at the past and not conclude that going forward, the Reds will have a much better rotation than in their previous year and a half.

1. Cueto is a new pitcher. More break on his slider, better control, going deeper into games, more confidence.

2. Leake is a better pitcher now than he was the second half of last year, and than he was all of last year for that matter.

3. Arroyo is the same.

4. Bailey has been better if he is healthy.

5. Volquez is pitching pretty much like Harang last year.

All that translate into a very solid rotation and one that should be much better than it has the first half of this season, and all of last season.

Teams always need pitching, so another starting pitcher would be nice, but it doesn't seem to bring the same improvement that adding a full time, veteran, above average LF would bring.


I agree with the majority of your post, but if the Reds could add an ace, Anibal Sanchez, and push Volquez down to AAA to work on his stuff with Travis Wood, wouldn't you that think that improves the Reds' chances? If all Anibal Sanchez costs is minor leaguers, why not pull the trigger?

I think that if the Reds do trade for an ace, they should also move for a shortstop.

Alonso for Hardy makes a lot of sense to me.

Grandal, Cozart, Hamilton, Heisey seems like a fair package for Sanchez.

I honestly don't think these deals kill our future chances at the playoffs while bolstering our chances significantly this year.

reds44
06-28-2011, 05:16 PM
Wood, Stubbs, Grandal, Frazier, Alonso for Sanchez and Hanley.

Hanley
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Heisey
Gomes/Lewis
Catcher

OR

Sappelt
Phillips
Votto
Hanley
Bruce
Rolen
Three headed LF moster
Catcher

/nevergonnahappen

/notsurehowmuchbetterthisevenmakesus

/iwantashortstop

traderumor
06-28-2011, 05:18 PM
It's hard to look at the past and not conclude that going forward, the Reds will have a much better rotation than in their previous year and a half.

1. Cueto is a new pitcher. More break on his slider, better control, going deeper into games, more confidence.

2. Leake is a better pitcher now than he was the second half of last year, and than he was all of last year for that matter.

3. Arroyo is the same.

4. Bailey has been better if he is healthy.

5. Volquez is pitching pretty much like Harang last year.

All that translate into a very solid rotation and one that should be much better than it has the first half of this season, and all of last season.

Teams always need pitching, so another starting pitcher would be nice, but it doesn't seem to bring the same improvement that adding a full time, veteran, above average LF would bring.
Cueto has been awesome. Remember how awesome Volquez was for a stretch? Made the All-Star team one year. I hope Cueto has found a new norm, but I also don't count on short-term results if I'm trying to make a projection/prediction.

Leake has pitched better since the stint in AAA. He was a ground ball machine last night. But again, short-term results do not make me comfy in predicting it will likely continue.

Arroyo has been what the offense is accused of being. He got hit pretty hard by Baltimore the other night, has been hit pretty hard a lot this season and has not had that "nails" stretch. Again, furrowed brow, scratching the chin, not sure I can project/predict anything about him at this stage.

Volquez is someone I try to trade for someone else's underperforming "stuff" guys. I don't count on him for anything but 5-6 innings of below average performance.

Bailey and health is a major concern.

Willis? Maloney? LeCure? Wood? How'd that work out in the rotation in April? It was a disaster, a predictable disaster.

The only thing consistent is the inconsistency.

But, yea, let's go get us an expensive vet LFer.

Caveat Emperor
06-28-2011, 05:21 PM
To me, it seems that pitching has been the problem this year, not the offense.

Team record in 1-run games:

2010 Reds: 27-27 (.500)
2011 Reds: 11-16 (.407)

reds44
06-28-2011, 05:22 PM
I'm not sure what's the problem with just admiting they could use a SS and a starting pitching. Upgrades at either position will make the team better.

klw
06-28-2011, 05:54 PM
I'm not sure what's the problem with just admiting they could use a SS and a starting pitching. Upgrades at either position will make the team better.

The problem is probably not in admitting the need but rather that there is a clear available upgrade at either position.

reds44
06-28-2011, 07:09 PM
The problem is probably not in admitting the need but rather that there is a clear available upgrade at either position.
It's impossible to know what's available, but you don't think they'll be a starter better than Volquez or a SS better than Janish available?

You know the answer.

RedsManRick
06-28-2011, 07:28 PM
I know Hardy has been the talk, but I saw a name today I hadn't considered. Would you trade Alonso for Asdrubal Cabrera?

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2011, 07:30 PM
I know Hardy has been the talk, but I saw a name today I hadn't considered. Would you trade Alonso for Asdrubal Cabrera?

That's an easy yes for me, but IMO, there's no way the Indians would do that.

Will M
06-28-2011, 08:25 PM
Anibal Sanchez may be the best pitcher available this year. If he is & the price is reasonable the Reds should get him.

1A) Ace
1B) fix shortstop
3) improve left field if we can with whatever prospects/money is left

edabbs44
06-28-2011, 08:28 PM
If anyone thinks that Walt is actually enthralled with SS, then they are slightly off their rocker.

nate
06-28-2011, 09:42 PM
At what point do we begin to say that these five game stretches after five game stretches of putrid offense highlighted by a big run output are problem some?

October?

Five games is 3% of the season and indicative of virtually nothing. No team that average x runs a game actually produces x runs EVERY game. Every team has "all or nothing" games.


At what point do we say SS + SS + SS = BSS (Big Sample Size)?

I'm not sure what that has to do with the conversation.

jojo
06-28-2011, 09:51 PM
I'm not sure what that has to do with the conversation.

My algebra has went to the dogs since I started using calculus but doesnt SS+SS+SS= 3SS?

nate
06-28-2011, 09:54 PM
My algebra has went to the dogs since I started using calculus but doesnt SS+SS+SS= 3SS?

Yessssss!

lollipopcurve
06-28-2011, 10:58 PM
My algebra has went to the dogs

And it don't stop there.

traderumor
06-28-2011, 11:07 PM
I'm not sure what's the problem with just admiting they could use a SS and a starting pitching. Upgrades at either position will make the team better.I don't think that's even arguable. The question is which would make the biggest difference. The other issue is what is available.

If I knew that the best upgrade available for the price, whatever that is, was a SS, then make the deal. The same for any other. But if you're asking me which is the biggest need, I'm sticking with the starting pitching position.

Caveat Emperor
06-29-2011, 12:03 AM
Team record in 1-run games:

2010 Reds: 27-27 (.500)
2011 Reds: 11-16 (.407)

2011 Reds: 11-17