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savafan
06-21-2011, 10:22 PM
What's that term we like to throw around? Small sample size?

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110621/SPT04/306210123/Heisey-better-off-bench?odyssey=nav|head


CINCINNATI -- Reds outfielder Chris Heisey has gotten his most extensive playing time the past week. Monday he was in the starting lineup for the fifth time in seven games.

Heisey went 3-for-20 in those games. Overall, hes hitting .195 as a starter and .378 as a substitute fourth outfielder.

reds44
06-21-2011, 10:31 PM
John Fay=edabbs

TeamBoone
06-21-2011, 11:14 PM
So glad other players aren't judged on such little playing time.

KronoRed
06-21-2011, 11:21 PM
Lets just go with no LF, since the tag team due stinks it up when starting ;)

Patrick Bateman
06-21-2011, 11:30 PM
Just an honest question for those who agree with John Fay:

Based on a reasonably large sample size, has there ever been a player who has played at a starter calibre level as a pinch hitter and sub, but failed miserably in a larger role?

My guess is that such an occurence does not happen, and is largely evened out by a larger sample size. I'd be interested in seeing examples where that thought is wrong.

reds44
06-21-2011, 11:55 PM
Just an honest question for those who agree with John Fay:

Based on a reasonably large sample size, has there ever been a player who has played at a starter calibre level as a pinch hitter and sub, but failed miserably in a larger role?

My guess is that such an occurence does not happen, and is largely evened out by a larger sample size. I'd be interested in seeing examples where that thought is wrong.
I don't see how it's possible. The question is, is real Heisey more starter Heisey or bench Heisey?

Plus Plus
06-21-2011, 11:59 PM
I think Heisey's nearly .400 babip and 7 homers in 101 ABs (vs .278 babip and 6 homers in 263 ABs as a starter) is more likely the reason that his numbers as a sub are much better than those as a starter.

Heisey just isn't really a great major league hitter, in my opinion. He's a serviceable substitute outfielder, but he isn't the great player that a lot of people hoped he would blossom into at this point in time.

reds44
06-22-2011, 12:00 AM
I want to know who has ever said Chris Heisey is going to be a great player.

757690
06-22-2011, 12:07 AM
Just an honest question for those who agree with John Fay:

Based on a reasonably large sample size, has there ever been a player who has played at a starter calibre level as a pinch hitter and sub, but failed miserably in a larger role?

My guess is that such an occurence does not happen, and is largely evened out by a larger sample size. I'd be interested in seeing examples where that thought is wrong.

Actually, I would imagine that there are plenty of players who have had great careers as a sub, but not so good as a starter. However, the sample sizes will always be too small to draw any conclusions, since they were just subs.

savafan
06-22-2011, 12:16 AM
Just an honest question for those who agree with John Fay:

Based on a reasonably large sample size, has there ever been a player who has played at a starter calibre level as a pinch hitter and sub, but failed miserably in a larger role?

My guess is that such an occurence does not happen, and is largely evened out by a larger sample size. I'd be interested in seeing examples where that thought is wrong.

Lenny Harris?

Plus Plus
06-22-2011, 12:24 AM
I want to know who has ever said Chris Heisey is going to be a great player.


Heisey just isn't really a great major league hitter, in my opinion. He's a serviceable substitute outfielder, but he isn't the great player that a lot of people hoped he would blossom into at this point in time.

A cursory search will show that there have been several posters (I'm not into calling people out by name for opinions that they have stated) who called for Heisey to start for extended periods of time and that threads dedicated to promoting Heisey to the starting lineup have been made, both this season and last season. I think that these posters and threads wanted Heisey in the starting lineup because the posters that I am referencing thought he was (as far as the Reds roster is concerned- not ultimately...) a potentially great player.

I also doubt that anyone on this forum hopes that players blossom into drek rather than great players.

My point was simply that Heisey's inflated numbers as a sub show clear signs of being due to a high BABIP and number of home runs, and that going forward he is much more likely to hit at or around his numbers as a starter than he is to hit at or around his numbers as a substitute.

reds44
06-22-2011, 12:29 AM
Lenny Harris?
.254/.310/.327/.638 off the bench.
.274/.321/.357/.678 as a starter.

I really don't think you'll find anybody being better off the bench for an extended period of time.

reds44
06-22-2011, 12:30 AM
A cursory search will show that there have been several posters (I'm not into calling people out by name for opinions that they have stated) who called for Heisey to start for extended periods of time and that threads dedicated to promoting Heisey to the starting lineup have been made, both this season and last season. I think that these posters and threads wanted Heisey in the starting lineup because the posters that I am referencing thought he was (as far as the Reds roster is concerned- not ultimately...) a potentially great player.

I also doubt that anyone on this forum hopes that players blossom into drek rather than great players.

My point was simply that Heisey's inflated numbers as a sub show clear signs of being due to a high BABIP and number of home runs, and that going forward he is much more likely to hit at or around his numbers as a starter than he is to hit at or around his numbers as a substitute.
I think/know the majority of people (like myself) want Heisey playing because they think he's better than Jonny Gomes, not because they think he's great.

Patrick Bateman
06-22-2011, 12:30 AM
Actually, I would imagine that there are plenty of players who have had great careers as a sub, but not so good as a starter. However, the sample sizes will always be too small to draw any conclusions, since they were just subs.

Are there really guys out there whom have posted say, an .800 OPS with acceptable defense at some position off of the bench?

Where are they?

Plus Plus
06-22-2011, 12:45 AM
I think/know the majority of people (like myself) want Heisey playing because they think he's better than Jonny Gomes, not because they think he's great.

I'm a bit confused as to why this discussion over the material that I posted is about the semantics (and in my opinion, a misunderstanding or miscommunication on my part) of "hope" versus "think" and the proverbial ripples emanating from that word choice and not about the clear and present statistical outliers present in Heisey's statistics as a substitute player.

savafan
06-22-2011, 12:46 AM
Are there really guys out there whom have posted say, an .800 OPS with acceptable defense at some position off of the bench?

Where are they?

Gates Brown

IslandRed
06-22-2011, 02:17 AM
What's that term we like to throw around? Small sample size?

The 3-for-20 is a small sample size, but you can look at the entirety of his major league career and see there aren't any other narratives to write. Both last year and this year, his starter/sub splits have been extreme.

Which is not to say he's always going to be a Hall of Famer off the bench or a complete scrub when written into the starting lineup. It's not reasonable to expect that to continue. But over his first 360ish plate appearances in the show, that's exactly what he's been.

Slyder
06-22-2011, 02:39 AM
.254/.310/.327/.638 off the bench.
.274/.321/.357/.678 as a starter.

I really don't think you'll find anybody being better off the bench for an extended period of time.

Daryle Ward?
Matt Stairs?

camisadelgolf
06-22-2011, 03:39 AM
Jhon Fya might have a point--is Heisey a better backup than he is a regular? Very possible. My inclination is to agree with that statement for reasons that have nothing to do with Faye. Regardless, I think I'd take a slightly-less productive Heisey over Gomes or Lewis in left everyday.

mth123
06-22-2011, 05:03 AM
Just an honest question for those who agree with John Fay:

Based on a reasonably large sample size, has there ever been a player who has played at a starter calibre level as a pinch hitter and sub, but failed miserably in a larger role?

My guess is that such an occurence does not happen, and is largely evened out by a larger sample size. I'd be interested in seeing examples where that thought is wrong.

I don't really agree with Fay but my guess, unlike many, is not that Heisey will be a plus bat as a starter, but that he'll eventually be less effective than his numbers have shown coming off the bench. Still a decent role player whose upside is probably a Cody Ross type career.

Still I thought this was an interesting question and I've wondered it myself. Most PH types are usually poor defenders or AAAA bats. I decided to check out a few guys who I remember spending a few years as part time or bench players. I'm sure there are many I haven't included, but of these guys, the best examples of being better as subs than as starters are Fred Whitfield, Gates Brown and Roger Freed. (SOPS = OPS as a Starter, SPAs = Plate Appearances as a starter. BOPS = OPS as a Sub, BPAs = Plate Appearances as a sub).




Name SOPS SPAs BOPS BPAs
Gates Brown 0.731 1987 0.819 558
Manny Mota 0.755 3454 0.693 772
Ollie Brown 0.720 3685 0.695 327
Lenny Harris 0.678 3103 0.638 1186
Harry Spilman 0.661 446 0.647 460
Duane Walker 0.684 781 0.656 198
Jerry Lynch 0.791 2574 0.792 571
Smokey Burgess 0.810 4332 0.789 680
Bernie Carbo 0.823 3052 0.706 268
Jesus Alou 0.659 4126 0.653 451
Mike Lum 0.689 3368 0.687 633
Bob Bailey 0.751 6709 0.741 334
Ron Fairly 0.774 7871 0.681 566
Benny Agbayani 0.809 1146 0.776 108
Don Mincher 0.798 4386 0.802 339
Fred Whitfield 0.730 2142 0.814 321
Roger Freed 0.688 648 0.807 180
Joe Lis 0.752 785 0.592 122
Chico Ruiz 0.581 973 0.550 282
Juan Castro 0.593 2470 0.610 379
Jerry Royster 0.655 4397 0.552 335
Matt Stairs 0.834 5413 0.834 585

edabbs44
06-22-2011, 07:03 AM
When does a small sample size become a legit sample size? Is it possible that the PH success is because of SSS?

edabbs44
06-22-2011, 07:04 AM
John Fay=edabbs

If that were me I would have also pointed out the all you can eat Pitt buffet he has feasted on.

RichRed
06-22-2011, 09:24 AM
John Fay=edabbs

Yep, we're on to him now. He did a good job throwing us off the trail with all the typos, but nobody screws up THAT much. The jig is up. :cool:

westofyou
06-22-2011, 09:32 AM
Gates Brown

Poor defensive player he was.

Always Red
06-22-2011, 09:38 AM
If Heisey wound up with a career like Gates Brown's, he would be a happy man, I think.

If Heisey is a bust as a starter, then I am all in favor of Fred Lewis hitting leadoff and playing LF everyday for 2 weeks. Let Gomes start against LH, and go with it.

Patrick Bateman
06-22-2011, 09:41 AM
Daryle Ward?
Matt Stairs?

Those guys are moot as it is considering their extreme lack of defensive value. That's why they saw bench (or DH) time.

*BaseClogger*
06-22-2011, 09:45 AM
Those guys are moot as it is considering their extreme lack of defensive value. That's why they saw bench (or DH) time.

Plus both have higher OPS as starters...

Patrick Bateman
06-22-2011, 09:48 AM
Plus both have higher OPS as starters...

Lol. I assumed if they were bothered to being mentioned the OP would have at the very least checked the facts as to whether they even fit Fay's hyopthesis.

Bumstead
06-22-2011, 10:04 AM
Heisey is a better overall player/option in LF than Gomes. I don't think he should be a starter in MLB, but neither should Gomes or Lewis. Play the best player for a change and not the manager's pet. Giving Heisey 300 AB's is not going to hurt this team anymore than watching Gomes for the next 90-ish games. IMHO

Bum

Chip R
06-22-2011, 10:51 AM
I don't know if Heisey is the answer in LF but they sure need to give him as much of a chance as they have given Gomes.

Gomes must be one helluva guy to have the media in his pocket like he does.

edabbs44
06-22-2011, 10:59 AM
Just an honest question for those who agree with John Fay:

Based on a reasonably large sample size, has there ever been a player who has played at a starter calibre level as a pinch hitter and sub, but failed miserably in a larger role?

My guess is that such an occurence does not happen, and is largely evened out by a larger sample size. I'd be interested in seeing examples where that thought is wrong.

If I had to bet on what would happen with Heisey's sample size expanding would be more of his starter numbers and less of his sub numbers. I'm not sure that it would even out.

LincolnparkRed
06-22-2011, 04:05 PM
Just an honest question for those who agree with John Fay:

Based on a reasonably large sample size, has there ever been a player who has played at a starter calibre level as a pinch hitter and sub, but failed miserably in a larger role?

My guess is that such an occurence does not happen, and is largely evened out by a larger sample size. I'd be interested in seeing examples where that thought is wrong.

Brooks Conrad in Atlanta comes to mind. Good pinch hitter but terrible defense

Patrick Bateman
06-22-2011, 04:12 PM
Brooks Conrad in Atlanta comes to mind. Good pinch hitter but terrible defense

He's had like 300 career at-bats?
How can a judgement even be made on that sort of sample size?

LincolnparkRed
06-22-2011, 04:21 PM
He's had like 300 career at-bats?
How can a judgement even be made on that sort of sample size?
Just as many as Chris

Patrick Bateman
06-22-2011, 04:23 PM
Just as many as Chris

Ya, that's what I'm saying.

Is there anyone that this has held true for a longer sample, not minor part seasons?

reds44
06-22-2011, 04:25 PM
Conrad is incorrect anyway.

Starter:
.252/.322/.440/.762

Sub:
.202/.289/.447/.736

Brutus
06-22-2011, 04:37 PM
He's had like 300 career at-bats?
How can a judgement even be made on that sort of sample size?

A sample size of 300 can actually be a statistically representative sample depending on what's being measured.

Without knowing the confidence interval, and deciding what the proportion being studied should be, no one can conclusively say 300 isn't a valid sample. As with any sample, the more the better. But it's possible 300 is enough to suggest a hypothesis.

That said, I don't personally subscribe to the likelihood that a guy is better in pinch-hitting situations. I think its' possible though unlikely. But dismissing a sample of 300 out of hand isn't necessarily scientifically sound.

Patrick Bateman
06-22-2011, 04:45 PM
A sample size of 300 can actually be a statistically representative sample depending on what's being measured.

Without knowing the confidence interval, and deciding what the proportion being studied should be, no one can conclusively say 300 isn't a valid sample. As with any sample, the more the better. But it's possible 300 is enough to suggest a hypothesis.

That said, I don't personally subscribe to the likelihood that a guy is better in pinch-hitting situations. I think its' possible though unlikely. But dismissing a sample of 300 out of hand isn't necessarily scientifically sound.

In this case it absolutely is when there is literally zero history of such an occurence happening.

It's a sample large enough to create a hypothesis but not a conclusion on this matter.

Brutus
06-22-2011, 04:54 PM
In this case it absolutely is when there is literally zero history of such an occurence happening.

It's a sample large enough to create a hypothesis but not a conclusion on this matter.

Having a valid sample size is far from the only thing needed to draw a sound conclusion. To be perfectly honest, baseball fans in general draw far too many conclusions about things based on a lot less than this. Even if you had a sample of 5,000 plate appearances, it doesn't mean a conclusion should be drawn in statistical terms unless it's a sound correlation, tight standard error, etc.

If a sample size is statistically big enough, a conclusion CAN be drawn if the numbers support it.

With a 90% confidence level and a 10% error, a sample of 269 would actually be sufficient based on S = (Z/E)2 or (1.64/.1)2.

1.64 is based on the Z score for a 90% interval. If we wanted a 5% error, it changes to 1,065 needed. Making it a 95% confidence level, it grows to 1,500 appearances.

So assuming a 90% confidence interval and 10% error, if Conrad's numbers support it, 269 plate appearances would be enough of a sample (assuming those qualifiers) to judge. I'm not specifically endorsing the Conrad example, but statistically speaking, under the set conditions (90/10), it actually is an adequate sample. Again, ideally, you'd want 95% and 5% error, which means we'd want more plate appearances. But using more lax standards, it's a statistically valid sample.

mth123
06-22-2011, 08:29 PM
Helping that OPS as a starter tonight. Happy to see it.

reds44
06-22-2011, 08:30 PM
He's got such a quick bat.

IslandRed
06-22-2011, 09:42 PM
He's had like 300 career at-bats?
How can a judgement even be made on that sort of sample size?

Well, a team can't always afford to give every prospect a full season's worth of plate appearances in the show before they form an opinion on whether he can play. The blue-chip prospects will get patience. The guys without a pedigree better do something when they get a chance. It's not always fair, but it has always been thus.

mth123
06-22-2011, 09:52 PM
Getting well all in one game. 3 HR, all three were on fat ones, but he hit 'em.

RedsManRick
06-22-2011, 09:54 PM
This just in, don't give Heisey a pitch thigh-high on the inner half.

nate
06-22-2011, 09:54 PM
I prefer Fay off the bench.

RedsManRick
06-22-2011, 09:55 PM
I prefer Fay off the bench.

:lol: :beerme:

reds44
06-22-2011, 09:55 PM
Heisey now 6-24 with three homers since starting to see "extended playing time."

edabbs44
06-22-2011, 09:57 PM
Heisey now 6-24 with three homers since starting to see "extended playing time."

4 HRs.

reds44
06-22-2011, 09:58 PM
4 HRs.
Even better!

Bet his OPS is over 1.000 lol

The Operator
06-22-2011, 09:58 PM
He must have taken Fay's article personally. :p

mth123
06-22-2011, 09:59 PM
Heisey now 6-24 with three homers since starting to see "extended playing time."

Other than the 3 fat ones he hit out of the park, he's 3 for 21.:evil:

CesarGeronimo
06-22-2011, 10:02 PM
Even better!

Bet his OPS is over 1.000 lol

Heisey's slugging percentage for the season, .492, is currently higher than Joey Votto's .489.

OnBaseMachine
06-22-2011, 10:03 PM
Keith Law on Heisey:

@keithlaw I think he'll hit. Avg to above avg regular. RT @tjap12: @keithlaw Chris Heisey isn't a big deal, right?

http://twitter.com/keithlaw

reds44
06-22-2011, 10:05 PM
Average to above average defense.

Average to above average major leaguer.

LvJ
06-22-2011, 10:05 PM
Oh. Oh okay. :)

LoganBuck
06-22-2011, 10:07 PM
Hopefully Heisey went out and marked his territory tonight.

mth123
06-22-2011, 10:10 PM
Average to above average defense.

Average to above average major leaguer.

Cody Ross career if all goes well. Not bad for a middle of the draft guy.

Patrick Bateman
06-22-2011, 10:30 PM
Well, a team can't always afford to give every prospect a full season's worth of plate appearances in the show before they form an opinion on whether he can play. The blue-chip prospects will get patience. The guys without a pedigree better do something when they get a chance. It's not always fair, but it has always been thus.

Oh I agree. I'm just questioning how one can characterize him as an all-star off the bench but garbage as a starter. The sample is too small for that.

On an overall basis though, he may not deserve to see patience to become a starter. But if he's hitting THAT well off the bench, odds are the starter stats will go up.

savafan
06-22-2011, 10:31 PM
He'll never be as good as Mark Whiten.

mbgrayson
06-22-2011, 10:41 PM
I prefer Fay off the bench.

I'd like to see Fay get sent down to the minors to work on his spelling, and his baseball skills. ;)

edabbs44
06-22-2011, 10:42 PM
Oh I agree. I'm just questioning how one can characterize him as an all-star off the bench but garbage as a starter. The sample is too small for that.

On an overall basis though, he may not deserve to see patience to become a starter. But if he's hitting THAT well off the bench, odds are the starter stats will go up.

Or that his bench stats will go down.

Patrick Bateman
06-22-2011, 10:48 PM
Or that his bench stats will go down.

Right. My overall thought is not to manipulate stats, and examine everything.

If we are evaluating him as a starter, assume that his overall stats are the best indicator.

From there, I understand both sides of him not starting and starting. But I think the maniuplations of his stats are a little over the top. That's all I'm saying.

Griffey012
06-22-2011, 11:11 PM
He's had like 300 career at-bats?
How can a judgement even be made on that sort of sample size?

This small sample size issue gets blown out of proportion on Redszone. Anytime a player has poor stats the defense is always "small sample size" Using Brooks Conrad as the example: you can just watch the guy play, his skill set is lacking, 300 AB's or 3000 AB's he is very very likely to always be what he already is.

For every Dustin Pedroia type who proves us wrong, there are 100 Ryan Freel's who are simply what they are.

Back to the topic great show by Heisey tonight, hopefully this boosts his confidence and gets him over the mental hump of starting. Of late our LF'ers are a non-issue. Gomes has been playing better, Lewis has been getting on base a ton, and Heisey may very well be coming around as a starter.

I am still all for getting a legit full time LF'er though.

Patrick Bateman
06-22-2011, 11:17 PM
This small sample size issue gets blown out of proportion on Redszone. Anytime a player has poor stats the defense is always "small sample size" Using Brooks Conrad as the example: you can just watch the guy play, his skill set is lacking, 300 AB's or 3000 AB's he is very very likely to always be what he already is.

For every Dustin Pedroia type who proves us wrong, there are 100 Ryan Freel's who are simply what they are.

Great show by Heisey tonight, hopefully this boosts his confidence and gets him over the mental hump of starting. Of late our LF'ers are a non-issue. Gomes has been playing better, Lewis has been getting on base a ton, and Heisey may very well be coming around as a starter.

I am still all for getting a legit full time LF'er though.

This is of course, for the thousandth time, not what I am arguing.

I simply suggested that Heisey was not a materially different hitter based on the situation he was used in.

Not once in this thread have I debated the merits of whether Heisey should be starting.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2011, 12:35 AM
Well, hopefully that earned him some more playing time and a start on Friday. He definitely deserves it.

Not sure how many saw the Yankes telecast, but they were gushing over the guy. Hard not to I suppose after a night like that. Giradi had good things to say too.

For the record, the last time an opposing hitter hit 3 home runs off the Yanks was in 1998.

cincinnati chili
06-23-2011, 01:33 AM
.254/.310/.327/.638 off the bench.
.274/.321/.357/.678 as a starter.

I really don't think you'll find anybody being better off the bench for an extended period of time.

Just because I'm curious, can you pull John Vander Wal

reds44
06-23-2011, 01:40 AM
Just because I'm curious, can you pull John Vander Wal
Starter: .266/.354/.454/.808
Sub: .243/.341/.401/.742

cinreds21
06-23-2011, 01:44 AM
I like Heisey more as a fourth outfielder than a starter for some reason. I think he could do it on a day-to-day basis, but I think he's perfect for what he is now.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2011, 01:46 AM
I like Heisey more as a fourth outfielder than a starter for some reason. I think he could do it on a day-to-day basis, but I think he's perfect for what he is now.

On a great team, I'd agree. But with the options we have now at the Show, isn't he the best option? Unless they will be bringing up Alonso or Sappelt, I don't see a better option offensively or defensively. I'm just hoping it cements more playing time for him until the Reds make a major move (either by trade of from the farm).

Brutus
06-23-2011, 01:52 AM
Here are the splits for the top 10 hitters in total number of pinch hits...

Player (OPS as starter/OPS as sub)

Lenny Harris (.678/.638)
Mark Sweeney (.743/.723)
Manny Mota (.755/.693)
Smoky Burgess (.810/.789)
Greg Gross (.747/.644)
Dave Hansen (.730/.728)
John Vander Wal (.808/.742)
Jose Morales (.735/.749)
Orlando Palmeiro (.714/.669)
Jerry Lynch (.791/.792)

cinreds21
06-23-2011, 03:11 AM
On a great team, I'd agree. But with the options we have now at the Show, isn't he the best option? Unless they will be bringing up Alonso or Sappelt, I don't see a better option offensively or defensively. I'm just hoping it cements more playing time for him until the Reds make a major move (either by trade of from the farm).

I agree completely. I think he can do it short-term but I like him as he is currently for the long-term for sure.

bucksfan2
06-23-2011, 09:18 AM
I don't know what to think about Heisey. When thinking about the future value of a player I tend to discount huge games like last night. I don't know if its a true measure of his skill. I was sure fun to watch but at the same time I think if you read a scouting report on Heisey the Yankees did what you can't do to Heisey.

I think Heisey is a nice asset to have, a guy who should get his fair share of starts as well as playing time late in the game. His defense and prowess off the bench are a valuable tool to have. I do think that he is a very aggressive hitter than when he falls behind early in the count isn't effective. To me he reminds me a lot of a poor man's Drew Stubbs. Similar hitter, similar defender, similar base runner, but not as good as Stubbs in all those categories. He is a guy who needs to take advantage of the playing time that is given to him.

With all the 3 outfielders I would ride the hot bat right now. I wouldn't lose any sleep over Heisey starting or over Heisey losing PT to a fresh face (Sappelt, Alonso, Fraizer, etc.)

reds44
06-23-2011, 12:33 PM
I don't know what to think about Heisey. When thinking about the future value of a player I tend to discount huge games like last night. I don't know if its a true measure of his skill. I was sure fun to watch but at the same time I think if you read a scouting report on Heisey the Yankees did what you can't do to Heisey.

I think Heisey is a nice asset to have, a guy who should get his fair share of starts as well as playing time late in the game. His defense and prowess off the bench are a valuable tool to have. I do think that he is a very aggressive hitter than when he falls behind early in the count isn't effective. To me he reminds me a lot of a poor man's Drew Stubbs. Similar hitter, similar defender, similar base runner, but not as good as Stubbs in all those categories. He is a guy who needs to take advantage of the playing time that is given to him.

With all the 3 outfielders I would ride the hot bat right now. I wouldn't lose any sleep over Heisey starting or over Heisey losing PT to a fresh face (Sappelt, Alonso, Fraizer, etc.)
His homers last night had nothing to do with scouting report. His first homer he worked himself into a fastball count (3-2), and Gordon missed his spot by a mile and it ended up right in Heisey's happy zone. The other two were both breaking balls, but they hung.

Heisey hit mistake pitches last thing. Nothing to do with scouting reports.

traderumor
06-23-2011, 02:11 PM
I don't know what to think about Heisey. When thinking about the future value of a player I tend to discount huge games like last night. I don't know if its a true measure of his skill. I was sure fun to watch but at the same time I think if you read a scouting report on Heisey the Yankees did what you can't do to Heisey.

I think Heisey is a nice asset to have, a guy who should get his fair share of starts as well as playing time late in the game. His defense and prowess off the bench are a valuable tool to have. I do think that he is a very aggressive hitter than when he falls behind early in the count isn't effective. To me he reminds me a lot of a poor man's Drew Stubbs. Similar hitter, similar defender, similar base runner, but not as good as Stubbs in all those categories. He is a guy who needs to take advantage of the playing time that is given to him.

With all the 3 outfielders I would ride the hot bat right now. I wouldn't lose any sleep over Heisey starting or over Heisey losing PT to a fresh face (Sappelt, Alonso, Fraizer, etc.)I think everyone else does too. Or at least I would hope so. He will not hit 52 home runs in a season, but he is starting to remind me of George Foster, who the Reds eventually made room for, and the rest was history. I was too young to know the background, but Foster came to the Reds in 1971, didn't blossom until 1975.

jojo
06-23-2011, 02:19 PM
He's had like 300 career at-bats?
How can a judgement even be made on that sort of sample size?

300 at bats-stretched over two seasons-don't inform anything.

At this point we can probably safely assume that Heisey will hit more fly balls than ground balls. Statistically, that's probably about it...

jojo
06-23-2011, 02:20 PM
I simply suggested that Heisey was not a materially different hitter based on the situation he was used in.

And you're most likely right.

REDREAD
06-23-2011, 02:23 PM
Based on a reasonably large sample size, has there ever been a player who has played at a starter calibre level as a pinch hitter and sub, but failed miserably in a larger role?


I am not saying I agree with Fay about Heisey.
But some possible examples:

Lenny Harris.. He was sort of a starter in his peak years of 25-26. He OPSed 722 in 465 ABs. I can't remember if he was platooned or not. Now it's a judgement call whether he had enough years coming off the bench to say he was "starter caliber".. but here's a candidate to chew on.

Ryan Freel.. This is a borderline candidate.. He had a nice year starting (at least some of the time) in 2004-2005.. Failed miserably as a starter in 2006.
Injuries kind of cloud his history though as an example.. I don't know if whatever caused him to fall off the face of the earth started in the fall of 2006 when he was given the starting job after Kearns was traded and they gave up on Deno.. Again, 2006, is kind of a small sample size.

This has nothing to do with Heisey, I just wanted to try to take on the challenge you threw out. It's a tough one. Maybe someone else has better examples.

REDREAD
06-23-2011, 02:25 PM
.254/.310/.327/.638 off the bench.
.274/.321/.357/.678 as a starter.

I really don't think you'll find anybody being better off the bench for an extended period of time.

True, but Lenny Harris played until he was 40. He was a starter around the 25-26 age range.. If you look through his numbers, he has a quite a number of bench seasons which were better than as a starter. If he retired at 33 instead of 40, he'd be a stronger case. So I don't think you can use the pure career average numbers.

Big Klu
06-23-2011, 06:20 PM
Lenny Harris.. He was sort of a starter in his peak years of 25-26. He OPSed 722 in 465 ABs. I can't remember if he was platooned or not. Now it's a judgement call whether he had enough years coming off the bench to say he was "starter caliber".. but here's a candidate to chew on.

Yes, Lenny Harris was the lefthanded-hitting half of the Dodgers' 3B platoon those years. His righty-hitting tag team partner was Mike Sharperson. Since both were versatile utility types, they also occasionally played other positions.

edabbs44
06-29-2011, 09:16 PM
So let's put our cards on the table. The guy has a good game vs Kuroda and LA, threads pop up that he needs to start more. He goes .111/.158/.167 in his next 7 games, 4 of which are starts. His supporters flee.

He then torches the NYY B team for 3 bombs. Chatter is through the roof again, talking about this guy and how he has to start in LF. He follows that performance up with a .200/.238/.250 line over his next 21 PAs in 4 starts. 8 Ks vs 1 BB mostly leading off. Also was an integral player in the Damon bloop double last night.

So what are the current thoughts? Seems like most of his support is of the fair weather variety. Is this guy a starter? A starter b/c of a lack of other options? Better in a part time role?

Personally I like him as a part timer.

Redhook
06-29-2011, 09:39 PM
I'd prefer him as a part-timer as well. I like him as a player, but I certainly don't view him as a long-term answer in LF. LF is sloppy mess, but if Dusty plays his cards right, it can be serviceable. Gomes plays against lefties, and Heisey/Lewis play against righties.

membengal
06-29-2011, 09:45 PM
I continue to want Sappelt or Alonso from AAA to man LF and neither Heisey's hot games nor his cold stretches have changed that opinion.

reds44
06-29-2011, 09:47 PM
So let's put our cards on the table. The guy has a good game vs Kuroda and LA, threads pop up that he needs to start more. He goes .111/.158/.167 in his next 7 games, 4 of which are starts. His supporters flee.

He then torches the NYY B team for 3 bombs. Chatter is through the roof again, talking about this guy and how he has to start in LF. He follows that performance up with a .200/.238/.250 line over his next 21 PAs in 4 starts. 8 Ks vs 1 BB mostly leading off. Also was an integral player in the Damon bloop double last night.

So what are the current thoughts? Seems like most of his support is of the fair weather variety. Is this guy a starter? A starter b/c of a lack of other options? Better in a part time role?

Personally I like him as a part timer.
Add in his stats of the three homer game and tell me what his stats from then until now.

You are manipulating stats to make it look how you want.

And did you really bring up the Damon double? He's the only LFer on the roster that makes that play as close as it is.

For the year, he's at .264/.321/.459 and an OPS+ of 111. Right now he should be platooning with Gomes.

RedsManRick
06-29-2011, 10:03 PM
So let's put our cards on the table. The guy has a good game vs Kuroda and LA, threads pop up that he needs to start more. He goes .111/.158/.167 in his next 7 games, 4 of which are starts. His supporters flee.

He then torches the NYY B team for 3 bombs. Chatter is through the roof again, talking about this guy and how he has to start in LF. He follows that performance up with a .200/.238/.250 line over his next 21 PAs in 4 starts. 8 Ks vs 1 BB mostly leading off. Also was an integral player in the Damon bloop double last night.

So what are the current thoughts? Seems like most of his support is of the fair weather variety. Is this guy a starter? A starter b/c of a lack of other options? Better in a part time role?

Personally I like him as a part timer.

I think that if you looked at any player like this you're bound to see such streakiness. He's not an all-star in waiting, but he's the best LF option we have right now -- a .750-.800ish OPS with plus D. Rarely does chopping up samples give you more information. Handedness splits and starter vs PH (in favor of starting) are pretty much the only ones that have been reliable over time.

Cedric
06-29-2011, 10:47 PM
So let's put our cards on the table. The guy has a good game vs Kuroda and LA, threads pop up that he needs to start more. He goes .111/.158/.167 in his next 7 games, 4 of which are starts. His supporters flee.

He then torches the NYY B team for 3 bombs. Chatter is through the roof again, talking about this guy and how he has to start in LF. He follows that performance up with a .200/.238/.250 line over his next 21 PAs in 4 starts. 8 Ks vs 1 BB mostly leading off. Also was an integral player in the Damon bloop double last night.

So what are the current thoughts? Seems like most of his support is of the fair weather variety. Is this guy a starter? A starter b/c of a lack of other options? Better in a part time role?

Personally I like him as a part timer.

Bringing up the Damon blooper actually kills your argument. It makes you look totally biased.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2011, 02:05 AM
So let's put our cards on the table. The guy has a good game vs Kuroda and LA, threads pop up that he needs to start more. He goes .111/.158/.167 in his next 7 games, 4 of which are starts. His supporters flee.

He then torches the NYY B team for 3 bombs. Chatter is through the roof again, talking about this guy and how he has to start in LF. He follows that performance up with a .200/.238/.250 line over his next 21 PAs in 4 starts. 8 Ks vs 1 BB mostly leading off. Also was an integral player in the Damon bloop double last night.

So what are the current thoughts? Seems like most of his support is of the fair weather variety. Is this guy a starter? A starter b/c of a lack of other options? Better in a part time role?

Personally I like him as a part timer.

It's well documented that you're not sold or high on Heisey and that you prefer Gomes and are willing to give him a longer leash while trying to manipulate stats in favor of Gomes. All of this despite the fact that Gomes has had far more PAs than Heisey has.

Coming back after a week of poor ABs by Heisey doesn't prove anything. If Heisey had a full year of playing regularly, and put up poor numbers, then your argument would have more merit.

Griffey012
06-30-2011, 06:58 AM
One of our favorite whipping boys Freddie Lewis has been playing pretty well of late, he is making a strong case to get a consistent chunk of AB's. Makes it that much harder for Heisey to man the position outright.

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 07:03 AM
Add in his stats of the three homer game and tell me what his stats from then until now.

You are manipulating stats to make it look how you want.

And did you really bring up the Damon double? He's the only LFer on the roster that makes that play as close as it is.

For the year, he's at .264/.321/.459 and an OPS+ of 111. Right now he should be platooning with Gomes.

Not really manipulating. More like looking at what the reactions on the board are to Heisey's performance. True he roughed up Gordon for a huge game. But will he provide any sort of consistency if given a chance?

And I totally agree that Chris covered a ton of ground on that hit by Damon. I was pretty amazed that he was even in the area. However, covering ground is one part of the equation. He wasn't really close to catching it. He could have pulled up and stopped the other run from scoring. no need to go balls out on that play.

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 07:05 AM
It's well documented that you're not sold or high on Heisey and that you prefer Gomes and are willing to give him a longer leash while trying to manipulate stats in favor of Gomes. All of this despite the fact that Gomes has had far more PAs than Heisey has.

Coming back after a week of poor ABs by Heisey doesn't prove anything. If Heisey had a full year of playing regularly, and put up poor numbers, then your argument would have more merit.

This isn't Chris' first poor week of ABs. That's kind of the point. Maybe it is the pressure. Maybe it is legitimate starting pitching. Maybe it is rando
But hasn't he received a few chances at te starting gig since last year?

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 07:07 AM
Bringing up the Damon blooper actually kills your argument. It makes you look totally biased.

Heisey has had a few gaffes in the OF this season. They typically get glossed over b/c of his rep as a good fielder. And he is a fairly solid fielder. But it doesn't excuse some of the poor decisions he has made at critical junctures.

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 07:19 AM
I think that if you looked at any player like this you're bound to see such streakiness. He's not an all-star in waiting, but he's the best LF option we have right now -- a .750-.800ish OPS with plus D. Rarely does chopping up samples give you more information. Handedness splits and starter vs PH (in favor of starting) are pretty much the only ones that have been reliable over time.

Do we really see in every player what Chris is doing as a starter? It's fairly unprecedented.

The problem Heisey is running into is that he will have a good game, get a few starts and then crap the proverbial bed when getting 4 or 5 more starts. Right now we have 2 other LFers playing well and the team can't afford To give Heisey a month or year to see what he can do.

But back to my original point. Seeing what we have seen, is Heisey the guy we want out there down the stretch vs Greinke, Carpenter, Gallardo, etc? What about vs Lee or Halladay in October? From what we have seen, he has generally been much more productive vs lesser pitching.

membengal
06-30-2011, 07:29 AM
Again, I don't. And I don't want Gomes either.

I want one of the AAA options. Yesterday.

Tony Cloninger
06-30-2011, 09:38 AM
Again, I don't. And I don't want Gomes either.

I want one of the AAA options. Yesterday.


I want a hot Gomes vs LHP only.....and since he wasnot dropped already, he is not going to be dropped now probably. Does not look like any of the 3 will be dropped any time soon.

bucksfan2
06-30-2011, 11:09 AM
Add in his stats of the three homer game and tell me what his stats from then until now.

You are manipulating stats to make it look how you want.

And did you really bring up the Damon double? He's the only LFer on the roster that makes that play as close as it is.

For the year, he's at .264/.321/.459 and an OPS+ of 111. Right now he should be platooning with Gomes.

Your going to project someone going forward on an outlier game? I want project what he will be going forward not looking at a great game and say, "That is Chris Heisey."

As for the Damon double it was the worst possible outcome for the Reds. He pulls up or whiffs completely and they only score one run. As it was he shot the ball in to no mans land and allowed another run to score.

I like Heisey. I think he is an asset to the team. But I don't think he should be the regular starter out on LF and think that him getting a start or two a week, pinch hitting, and coming into the game as a defensive substitute is the way to maximize his value.

HokieRed
06-30-2011, 11:28 AM
I think the more serious question regarding Heisey, longer term, is not whether he should be in LF (I don't think he should) but whether he's a close enough replacement for Drew Stubbs that he would allow for trading Stubbs, one of the few players on this team that one could really move in a trade for a difference-making pitcher or serious upgrade at SS, LF, or, in future, 3b.

membengal
06-30-2011, 12:24 PM
I want a hot Gomes vs LHP only.....and since he wasnot dropped already, he is not going to be dropped now probably. Does not look like any of the 3 will be dropped any time soon.

Edabbs' question was what we want personally. That's what I answered.

Hoosier Red
06-30-2011, 12:41 PM
I think that if you looked at any player like this you're bound to see such streakiness. He's not an all-star in waiting, but he's the best LF option we have right now -- a .750-.800ish OPS with plus D. Rarely does chopping up samples give you more information. Handedness splits and starter vs PH (in favor of starting) are pretty much the only ones that have been reliable over time.

I think the PH splits may be exaggerated, and guys like Lenny Harris and John VanDerWal proved that even they were better as starters than as Pinch Hitters.

But I think it also misses the point. If we accept for a minute the question as Heisey FT starter and Gomes and Lewis on the bench versus Gomes and Lewis platoon starting with Heisey as a PH.

The correct calculation isn't just what Heisey would do as a PH versus what he does as a starter, rather, the correct calculation is What he does as a starter(and the contribution of Gomes and Lewis solely off the bench) versus the combination of what those two as platoon mates and Heisey off the bench would produce.

I tend to think full time, Heisey is better than either Gomes or Lewis as both a starter and as a bench player.

But as a platoon takes advantage of the first two or three at bats, it might nudge the combination of Lewis and Gomes ahead of Heisey, and the fact that Heisey is so spectacular coming off the bench cements that this is the most worthwhile use of the resources.

Or they could just freaking trade for Matt Kemp and be done with it. :)

Scrap Irony
06-30-2011, 12:54 PM
I think the more serious question regarding Heisey, longer term, is not whether he should be in LF (I don't think he should) but whether he's a close enough replacement for Drew Stubbs that he would allow for trading Stubbs, one of the few players on this team that one could really move in a trade for a difference-making pitcher or serious upgrade at SS, LF, or, in future, 3b.

That's a pretty solid idea, Hokie. Out of the box thinking that's both possible and could help the team.

Adding to it, even if Heisey struggles a bit in that area, he could just be a placeholder for Sappelt.

RedsManRick
06-30-2011, 01:10 PM
But back to my original point. Seeing what we have seen, is Heisey the guy we want out there down the stretch vs Greinke, Carpenter, Gallardo, etc? What about vs Lee or Halladay in October? From what we have seen, he has generally been much more productive vs lesser pitching.

Is Gomes? Lewis? Alonso? Frazier?

What guys hit good pitchers better that "lesser" ones? Over time, nobody. Teeing off on mediocre pitching is what mediocre hitters do. If they could hit Lee or Halladay with any reliability, they'd be stars and we would have to have this conversation. What I do know is that defense isn't affected by who's on the mound and Heisey is easily the best defender of our 3 current options.

If we want to play the small sample splits game, let's talk about Gomes' OPSing .692 vR and 1.133 vL -- or 1.219 in his 1st PA against a SP, .705 in his 2nd, and .445 in his 3rd. That looks like a guy who should pinch hit to me. We can play this game all day. What we know about Heisey's performance in PH vs. starting from his performance should be significantly regressed to what we know about that split for all players - which is that ballplayers perform better as starters than as pinch hitters (or DHs).

Don't get me wrong, Heisey may not be the ideal LF option. I think we could use and afford an upgrade. I'd LOVE to get Beltran. But the question is not how to maximize the performance from Heisey; it's how to maximize our production out of LF. And if our options are Gomes, Heisey, and Lewis, Heisey is clearly the best option for the bulk of the playing time in my book. Spot Gomes against lefties and rotate Lewis in when Stubbs or Bruce need a day off (and Heisey plays CF or RF). But Heisey should be starting at least 4 days a week. And if, from a scouting perspective, he's really struggling after a month, then we can reevaluate.

reds44
06-30-2011, 01:27 PM
Your going to project someone going forward on an outlier game? I want project what he will be going forward not looking at a great game and say, "That is Chris Heisey."

As for the Damon double it was the worst possible outcome for the Reds. He pulls up or whiffs completely and they only score one run. As it was he shot the ball in to no mans land and allowed another run to score.

I like Heisey. I think he is an asset to the team. But I don't think he should be the regular starter out on LF and think that him getting a start or two a week, pinch hitting, and coming into the game as a defensive substitute is the way to maximize his value.
That's exactly what I've been saying all year. Don't cherry pick his stats, judge him by his entire body of work. No, a great game isn't Chris Heisey but neither is a week or so worth of at bats.

nate
06-30-2011, 09:40 PM
I still want to know, when using some SSS (Small Sample Size), which one wins? For every post-season split citation that adds "drama" to a situation, there's another one to counter it.

"Walt Weiss is 2-42 against Bob Walk in night games played on turf." OK, he's also 12-32 at home against pitchers with no chins and unfortunate last names.

Which split wins?

I've been wondering this since approximately 1979 when trying to make my own dice-based baseball game.

Someone please advise so I can finish.

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 09:56 PM
I still want to know, when using some SSS (Small Sample Size), which one wins? For every post-season split citation that adds "drama" to a situation, there's another one to counter it.

"Walt Weiss is 2-42 against Bob Walk in night games played on turf." OK, he's also 12-32 at home against pitchers with no chins and unfortunate last names.

Which split wins?

I've been wondering this since approximately 1979 when trying to make my own dice-based baseball game.

Someone please advise so I can finish.

As I have said before, all SSSs aren't made the same.

Check out these career splits. Is this really random?

OPS numbers

Tie game - .525
within 1 run - .644
within 2 runs - .661
within 3 runs - .693
within 4 runs - .694
within 5 or more runs - 1.098

high leverage - .603
medium leverage - .722
low leverage - .878

1st inning - .481
2nd - .507
3rd - .440
4th - .549
5th - .605
6th - .613
7th - 1.192
8th - .990
9th - .979

1st time vs SP - .535
2nd vs SP - .498
3rd - 1.038
1st vs RP - .883


Are there any plausable explanations? Can we really believe that this is all randomness?

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2011, 10:01 PM
This isn't Chris' first poor week of ABs. That's kind of the point. Maybe it is the pressure. Maybe it is legitimate starting pitching. Maybe it is rando
But hasn't he received a few chances at te starting gig since last year?

No. Playing for a week straight doesn't prove anything. Baseball is a game of streaks and the only way to tell if a player is worth their weight is to give them enough chances to succeed or fail. Edwin Encarnacion is a good example of someone who was given plenty of chances to prove himself and couldn't put it all together. Heisey is not. When was the last time Heisey got the majority of the playing time for longer than a week or 2? Gomes has had a season plus of seeing the majority of time.

And to suggest that Heisey somehow should've caught the Damon ball when he was the furthest away while arguing that Gomes should be playing over heisey is a true :laugh: moment.

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 10:11 PM
No. Playing for a week straight doesn't prove anything. Baseball is a game of streaks and the only way to tell if a player is worth their weight is to give them enough chances to succeed or fail. Edwin Encarnacion is a good example of someone who was given plenty of chances to prove himself and couldn't put it all together. Heisey is not. When was the last time Heisey got the majority of the playing time for longer than a week or 2? Gomes has had a season plus of seeing the majority of time.

And to suggest that Heisey somehow should've caught the Damon ball when he was the furthest away while arguing that Gomes should be playing over heisey is a true :laugh: moment.

No one is saying that he should have caught the ball.

And I think that posters on a message board need a really large sample size to make a determination moreso than professionals do.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2011, 10:14 PM
As I have said before, all SSSs aren't made the same.

Check out these career splits. Is this really random?

OPS numbers

Tie game - .525
within 1 run - .644
within 2 runs - .661
within 3 runs - .693
within 4 runs - .694
within 5 or more runs - 1.098

high leverage - .603
medium leverage - .722
low leverage - .878

1st inning - .481
2nd - .507
3rd - .440
4th - .549
5th - .605
6th - .613
7th - 1.192
8th - .990
9th - .979

1st time vs SP - .535
2nd vs SP - .498
3rd - 1.038
1st vs RP - .883


Are there any plausable explanations? Can we really believe that this is all randomness?

Yes, easily. There's this thing called total PAs and if it's under 600 in each of those situations, then it's not really worth even evaluating, especially when a player has had ups and downs. Even at 600, it's not really enough to correctly evaluate a player, but it would be a good start.

Do you need to be reminded how Gomes performed outside of May last year?

Let's look at Gomes OPS by month:

Mar/Apr - .620
Jun - .704
Jul - .674
Aug - .700
Sept/Oct - .745

So outside of Gomes' wonderful May, he put up 1 respectable month at the end of the season while receiving the vast majority of playing time. See how easy it is to manipulate stats to favor your argument?

How about defense for 2010?

Home - UZR = -15.4
Away - UZR = -26.0

It's well noted you're not sold on Heisey and every few days he's struggled you give him the whipping boy treatment while not objectively viewing Gomes the same way. Why that it is, I have no clue.

reds44
06-30-2011, 10:17 PM
As I have said before, all SSSs aren't made the same.

Check out these career splits. Is this really random?

OPS numbers

Tie game - .525
within 1 run - .644
within 2 runs - .661
within 3 runs - .693
within 4 runs - .694
within 5 or more runs - 1.098

high leverage - .603
medium leverage - .722
low leverage - .878

1st inning - .481
2nd - .507
3rd - .440
4th - .549
5th - .605
6th - .613
7th - 1.192
8th - .990
9th - .979

1st time vs SP - .535
2nd vs SP - .498
3rd - 1.038
1st vs RP - .883


Are there any plausable explanations? Can we really believe that this is all randomness?
Who is the player (I'm going to assume Heisey)? How many ABs? How old is he? Who are the pitchers he's facing?

What confuses me the most is:
high leverage - .603
medium leverage - .722
low leverage - .878

7th - 1.192
8th - .990
9th - .979

How do these make sense? Why is he so good when facing a reliever for the first time, but not good getting his first AB as a starter?

If Chris Heisey had a lot more ABs under his belt, you might have a point, but we're taking a guy with only 349 ABs, which is a little over half of a season, and making his sample size even smaller.

Honestly, Heisey could be a starting caliber player, or he could be right handed Chris Dickerson. Nobody knows for sure yet.

reds44
06-30-2011, 10:21 PM
1st time vs SP - .535
2nd vs SP - .498
3rd - 1.038
1st vs RP - .883

How are these not random numbers? So he's bad the first two times up against a starter, but good in the first against a reliever? There's no way to describe that other than random.

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 10:24 PM
Yes, easily. There's this thing called total PAs and if it's under 600 in each of those situations, then it's not really worth even evaluating, especially when a player has had ups and downs. Even at 600, it's not really enough to correctly evaluate a player, but it would be a good start.

Do you need to be reminded how Gomes performed outside of May last year?

Let's look at Gomes OPS by month:

Mar/Apr - .620
Jun - .704
Jul - .674
Aug - .700
Sept/Oct - .745

So outside of Gomes' wonderful May, he put up 1 respectable month at the end of the season while receiving the vast majority of playing time. See how easy it is to manipulate stats to favor your argument?

How about defense for 2010?

Home - UZR = -15.4
Away - UZR = -26.0

It's well noted you're not sold on Heisey and every few days he's struggled you give him the whipping boy treatment while not objectively viewing Gomes the same way. Why that it is, I have no clue.

It's funny...Gomes' career numbers are pretty much the polar opposite in those same situations that Heisey's. His worst three innings are 7-8-9. He is much better as a starter than sub. Extremely consistent whether the game is close, blowout or in between.

If anything, they complement each other extremely well. Gomes 1-6th inning, Heisey defensive replacement in the 7th.

Tongue in cheek? Maybe. But the numbers are kind of cooky.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2011, 10:26 PM
It's funny...Gomes' career numbers are pretty much the polar opposite in those same situations that Heisey's. His worst three innings are 7-8-9. He is much better as a starter than sub. Extremely consistent whether the game is close, blowout or in between.

If anything, they complement each other extremely well. Gomes 1-6th inning, Heisey defensive replacement in the 7th.

Tongue in cheek? Maybe. But the numbers are kind of cooky.

It ignores the fact that Gomes has had hundreds more chances than Heisey has in those situations.

I think if you just admitted that you have a bias, you'd earn more respect. If you pretend that all things are equal, it completely discredits your argument for Gomes over Heisey IMO.

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 10:27 PM
1st time vs SP - .535
2nd vs SP - .498
3rd - 1.038
1st vs RP - .883

How are these not random numbers? So he's bad the first two times up against a starter, but good in the first against a reliever? There's no way to describe that other than random.

I have no idea. They may seem random to us, but maybe there is something that a professional scout knows as to why he can't hit starters for the most part.

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 10:29 PM
It ignores the fact that Gomes has had hundreds more chances than Heisey has in those situations.

I think if you just admitted that you have a bias, you'd earn more respect. If you pretend that all things are equal, it completely discredits your argument for Gomes over Heisey IMO.

I think my argument is more "take a deeper look at Heisey" than "Gomes over Heisey". Maybe the bias is in how you read my posts.

And sure Gomes has had hundreds more chances. But I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. We can scream sample size all we want, but the only way Chris is going to get an extended look is to do something when he gets a chance. 4-5 games in a week? Do something. Don't hit 3 bombs vs AA pitchers for the Yanks and then do nothing the rest of the week.

reds44
06-30-2011, 10:34 PM
I have no idea. They may seem random to us, but maybe there is something that a professional scout knows as to why he can't hit starters for the most part.
Except for the fact that you have never heard that from anyone before. And as has been said on here before, a guy who is a much better PHer than starter is EXTREMELY rare.

I just don't know what's so hard about this.

Chris Heisey is not going to continue to hit .356/.402/.644 as a PHer/sub. If he does he's going to literally be the greatest pinch hitter in the history of baseball, and it won't even be close.

He's also not going to continue to .224/.295/.375 as a starter. His true value is a player is probably somewhere in between.

You know what's in between? His career line of .258/.323/.444/.767. That's Chris Heisey as of today. That's who he is. Twist the numbers however you want.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2011, 10:38 PM
I think my argument is more "take a deeper look at Heisey" than "Gomes over Heisey". Maybe the bias is in how you read my posts.

And sure Gomes has had hundreds more chances. But I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. We can scream sample size all we want, but the only way Chris is going to get an extended look is to do something when he gets a chance. 4-5 games in a week? Do something. Don't hit 3 bombs vs AA pitchers for the Yanks and then do nothing the rest of the week.

The problem is, you can't ignore the larger number of PAs Gomes has had if you want to be objective. You can't take a deeper look when all things aren't equal. How about we make Heisey the regular starter for nearly a full season (a la Gomes last year) and then see how things shake out. Jay Bruce at times has had dismal stretches where he plays nearly every day, but I haven't seen you call for his head. Same goes for Stubbs.

reds44
06-30-2011, 10:42 PM
Btw, Chris Heisey's line over the last 10 games (from Sunday against Toronto until now):

.264/.321/.459/.781

6 starts, 1 PH appearance.

Looks a lot like Chris Heisey.

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 10:46 PM
The problem is, you can't ignore the larger number of PAs Gomes has had if you want to be objective. You can't take a deeper look when all things aren't equal. How about we make Heisey the regular starter for nearly a full season (a la Gomes last year) and then see how things shake out. Jay Bruce at times has had dismal stretches where he plays nearly every day, but I haven't seen you call for his head. Same goes for Stubbs.

There were similar discussions around Cabrera and Janish last year. Why does Janish play every day? he can't be much worse than Cabrera. Cabrera's OPS is .650, how much worse can he be?

Fast fwd and we see how much worse he can be. Maybe Walt and Dusty knew what they were doing last year by playing Cabrera. Maybe they know what they are doing here.

RedsManRick
06-30-2011, 10:46 PM
As I have said before, all SSSs aren't made the same.

Check out these career splits. Is this really random?

OPS numbers

Tie game - .525
within 1 run - .644
within 2 runs - .661
within 3 runs - .693
within 4 runs - .694
within 5 or more runs - 1.098

high leverage - .603
medium leverage - .722
low leverage - .878

1st inning - .481
2nd - .507
3rd - .440
4th - .549
5th - .605
6th - .613
7th - 1.192
8th - .990
9th - .979

1st time vs SP - .535
2nd vs SP - .498
3rd - 1.038
1st vs RP - .883


Are there any plausable explanations? Can we really believe that this is all randomness?

Who says it's random? I see a guy who has beat up tired SP and crappy RP being used in low leverage situations. The larger the lead / lower the leverage, the more likely he's facing a crappy pitcher. Just because it's not random doesn't mean it's Heisey's skill.

And furhtermore, yes, we can really believe that is all randomness. Heisey has performed well as a PH late in games. We know that. The entire point of SSS is that you can see things that look a lot like patterns without them actually being replicable in the long run. Just because we see that fact show up when you look at exact same situation through 3 different lenses doesn't make it any more of a skill. SSS caution exists precisely for situations like this, where what we're observing doesn't match up with everything else we know about the way things work.

I won't dismiss the possibility that Heisey is a freak. But given a small sample, I'm going to heavily regress my observations towards the known population mean.

reds44
06-30-2011, 10:48 PM
There were similar discussions around Cabrera and Janish last year. Why does Janish play every day? he can't be much worse than Cabrera. Cabrera's OPS is .650, how much worse can he be?

Fast fwd and we see how much worse he can be. Maybe Walt and Dusty knew what they were doing last year by playing Cabrera. Maybe they know what they are doing here.
Orlando Cabrera and Paul Janish have nothing to do with Chris Heisey.

People wanted Drew Stubbs playing ahead of Wily Taveras too. People wanted Joey Votto playing ahead of Scott Hatteberg.

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 10:48 PM
Btw, Chris Heisey's line over the last 10 games (from Sunday against Toronto until now):

.264/.321/.459/.781

6 starts, 1 PH appearance.

Looks a lot like Chris Heisey.

As long as he faces some of the worst pitchers in baseball every 7 days, he should be all set.

And I get that everyone faced Gordon and the other dude that night. I totally get it. But Heisey would make me feel better if he had more success against some of the better pitchers he faces. He just seems to do so much better against lesser pitching. Moreso than what you would assume a normal distribution to be.

edabbs44
06-30-2011, 10:49 PM
Orlando Cabrera and Paul Janish have nothing to do with Chris Heisey.

People wanted Drew Stubbs playing ahead of Wily Taveras too. People wanted Joey Votto playing ahead of Scott Hatteberg.

There's a difference when the guys are minor leaguers w/o major league experience.

reds44
06-30-2011, 10:53 PM
As long as he faces some of the worst pitchers in baseball every 7 days, he should be all set.

And I get that everyone faced Gordon and the other dude that night. I totally get it. But Heisey would make me feel better if he had more success against some of the better pitchers he faces. He just seems to do so much better against lesser pitching. Moreso than what you would assume a normal distribution to be.
You continue to take an already small sample sizer and make it smaller and twist your argument.

I give you 349 ABs, you make it 101.
I give you 10 games, you make it 6.

Let the record show Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce were a combined 2-12 with 0 extra base hits against the AAA pitchers of the Yankees that you speak of.

Guess what, if you play everyday, you are going to face a lot of bad pitchers.

camisadelgolf
06-30-2011, 10:54 PM
I still want to know, when using some SSS (Small Sample Size), which one wins? For every post-season split citation that adds "drama" to a situation, there's another one to counter it.

"Walt Weiss is 2-42 against Bob Walk in night games played on turf." OK, he's also 12-32 at home against pitchers with no chins and unfortunate last names.

Which split wins?

I've been wondering this since approximately 1979 when trying to make my own dice-based baseball game.

Someone please advise so I can finish.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-values

reds44
06-30-2011, 10:57 PM
There's a difference when the guys are minor leaguers w/o major league experience.
As opposed to Heisey who has to this point of his career shown the ability to hit major league pitching at an above average level?

Chris Heisey was an .825 OPS guy in the minors, it's not like he's out preforming what he did down there.

fearofpopvol1
07-01-2011, 04:09 PM
There were similar discussions around Cabrera and Janish last year. Why does Janish play every day? he can't be much worse than Cabrera. Cabrera's OPS is .650, how much worse can he be?

Fast fwd and we see how much worse he can be. Maybe Walt and Dusty knew what they were doing last year by playing Cabrera. Maybe they know what they are doing here.

Janish has a better glove than Cabrera at this point in Cabrera's career. Heisey has an unquestionably better glove than Gomes. So if Gomes and Heisey are semi equal with the bat, Heisey edges out Gomes with his glove, making him the better overall player.

edabbs44
07-01-2011, 05:21 PM
Janish has a better glove than Cabrera at this point in Cabrera's career. Heisey has an unquestionably better glove than Gomes. So if Gomes and Heisey are semi equal with the bat, Heisey edges out Gomes with his glove, making him the better overall player.

Personally, I think Heisey's numbers will regress if he were to see extended time. I think, all things being equal, Gomes is a superior offensive player than Heisey. And the Reds obviously think that way as well.

edabbs44
07-01-2011, 05:22 PM
As opposed to Heisey who has to this point of his career shown the ability to hit major league pitching at an above average level?

Chris Heisey was an .825 OPS guy in the minors, it's not like he's out preforming what he did down there.

Baker and Walt are pretty solid assessors of baseball talent. They have seen Heisey get 300+ ABs in the majors. He isn't an unknown quantity to them.

CesarGeronimo
07-01-2011, 06:49 PM
Baker and Walt are pretty solid assessors of baseball talent. They have seen Heisey get 300+ ABs in the majors. He isn't an unknown quantity to them.

Neither was Willy Taveras.

RedsManRick
07-01-2011, 07:43 PM
Personally, I think Heisey's numbers will regress if he were to see extended time. I think, all things being equal, Gomes is a superior offensive player than Heisey. And the Reds obviously think that way as well.

I'm curious, what line do you think each guy would put up in full-time duty?

50 points of OPS (assuming a similar OBP/SLG proportion) is worth about 9 runs -- rough math. (http://members.cox.net/~harlowk22/opsjunk-pt2.html)

So if you think Gomes would out OPS Heisey by 100 points, then Heisey would have to be 18 runs better with the glove to make up the difference.

edabbs44
07-01-2011, 08:51 PM
Gomes: .265/.335/.455
Heisey: .245/.300/.385

RedsManRick
07-02-2011, 01:41 AM
Gomes: .265/.335/.455
Heisey: .245/.300/.385

Interesting. I'd say you're certain bullish on Heisey considering he hit .296/.367/.459 in the minors and has hit .258/.323/.444. That's some series regression you're expecting, especially in the slugging department. You're really giving him a big hit on the slugging. But to each his own. Personally, I'd go for pretty much what he's done so far, .260/.320/.440.

And on the flip side, if Gomes is facing righties 4+ days a week, I'd peg him at .245/.330/.450.

So you see ~18 runs of offense between them offensively, I see about 5. And I'd peg the defensive difference at about 15 runs -- I imagine it's more like 5 for you?

Ron Madden
07-02-2011, 03:32 AM
Personally, I think Heisey's numbers will regress if he were to see extended time. I think, all things being equal, Gomes is a superior offensive player than Heisey. And the Reds obviously think that way as well.


Ya know I kinda admire your loyalty to Gomes.

I just can't understad your constant need to degrade Heisey, Stubbs and Bruce in effort to defend Jonny Gomes.

edabbs44
07-02-2011, 06:03 AM
Ya know I kinda admire your loyalty to Gomes.

I just can't understad your constant need to degrade Heisey, Stubbs and Bruce in effort to defend Jonny Gomes.

That's an interesting take. I had no idea that I degraded any of these guys, especially Bruce and Stubbs. I talk much more about Heisey than the other 2 combined. If you can provide examples of when I constantly degraded Bruce and Stubbs, I would be happy to respond.

edabbs44
07-02-2011, 07:38 AM
Interesting. I'd say you're certain bullish on Heisey considering he hit .296/.367/.459 in the minors and has hit .258/.323/.444. That's some series regression you're expecting, especially in the slugging department. You're really giving him a big hit on the slugging. But to each his own. Personally, I'd go for pretty much what he's done so far, .260/.320/.440.

And on the flip side, if Gomes is facing righties 4+ days a week, I'd peg him at .245/.330/.450.

So you see ~18 runs of offense between them offensively, I see about 5. And I'd peg the defensive difference at about 15 runs -- I imagine it's more like 5 for you?

I'm bearish on Heisey. And I know it is kind of against the grain but I see him as probably being somewhere btw his starting and sub stats, but much closer to his starting stats.

nate
07-02-2011, 03:17 PM
Quiz time! Which player is Heisey and which is Gomes?

A:


Split BA OBP SLG OPS
Last 365days .236 .328 .404 .732


B:


Split BA OBP SLG OPS
Last 365days .254 .311 .420 .731

Brutus
07-02-2011, 03:31 PM
I'm bearish on Heisey. And I know it is kind of against the grain but I see him as probably being somewhere btw his starting and sub stats, but much closer to his starting stats.

I don't think either extreme is really indicative of what he's likely to be going forward. Probably his overall career stats, to this point, are most representative of what he is. What he'll be is hard to say, though improvement isn't out of the question, obviously.

I think his overall stats, though, really seem to be in the ballpark.

RedsManRick
07-02-2011, 03:32 PM
I'm bearish on Heisey. And I know it is kind of against the grain but I see him as probably being somewhere btw his starting and sub stats, but much closer to his starting stats.

Bear.. Bull.. what's the difference. :lol:

Right, that's the fundamental disagreement here. You think his stats as a starter are more indicative how he'd likely do as a full-starter. Me and some other folks think his overall body of work is a better indicator given that most players don't perform better as PH than as starters and that we really don't know all that much about Heisey in either capacity. No real way to say who's right until and unless Heisey gets 600+ PA. I guess time will tell.

camisadelgolf
07-02-2011, 03:47 PM
Bear.. Bull.. what's the difference. :lol:

Right, that's the fundamental disagreement here. You think his stats as a starter are more indicative how he'd likely do as a full-starter. Me and some other folks think his overall body of work is a better indicator given that most players don't perform better as PH than as starters and that we really don't know all that much about Heisey in either capacity. No real way to say who's right until and unless Heisey gets 600+ PA. I guess time will tell.
It's completely valid to point out that most hitters don't perform better as pinch hitters than they do as regulars, but one thing to consider is that Heisey's struggles against starting pitchers might be indicative of something (although I doubt it, personally).

1.) Relief pitchers have a smaller repertoire. Perhaps Heisey performs better when there's less guessing involved.

2.) At 7:30, there is still daylight. At 9:30, you're relying more heavily on artificial lighting. Maybe Heisey sees pitches better in this setting.

3.) It's possible that Heisey fails to make quality adjustments between at-bats. Based on his splits as a starter/pinch-hitter, I'm presuming that his numbers indicate he performs better against pitchers upon seeing them the first time as opposed to multiple times.

4.) Perhaps playing defense and staying focused on the field drains his energy and weakens his performance at the dish.

I'm sure I could dig for a few more possibilities. Although you're right--there's only one way to find out how Heisey would perform as a regular--there might actually be a good explanation for his extreme split, and if there is, the Reds might actually be aware of it, which would mean they're acting accordingly.

fearofpopvol1
07-02-2011, 05:37 PM
Quiz time! Which player is Heisey and which is Gomes?

A:


Split BA OBP SLG OPS
Last 365days .236 .328 .404 .732


B:


Split BA OBP SLG OPS
Last 365days .254 .311 .420 .731


Throw some UZR ratings in there as well and I think we'll easily be able to tell. :p

nate
07-02-2011, 05:42 PM
Throw some UZR ratings in there as well and I think we'll easily be able to tell. :p

HINT:

One of the two players has a cool haircut!

jojo
07-02-2011, 08:23 PM
Quiz time! Which player is Heisey and which is Gomes?

A:


Split BA OBP SLG OPS
Last 365days .236 .328 .404 .732


B:


Split BA OBP SLG OPS
Last 365days .254 .311 .420 .731


Is this a trick question?

Big Klu
07-02-2011, 09:14 PM
Bear.. Bull.. what's the difference. :lol:

Da Bears...Da Bears...Mike Ditka...Da Bears...Da Bulls...Da Bears...Polish Sausage...Ditka...


http://thedeafsage.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/snl-super-fans.jpg

edabbs44
07-02-2011, 10:08 PM
I knew I was having deja vu.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=84994

A lot of similarities in how I felt regarding OC vs Janish in 2011 along with the unbridled enthusiasm some were experiencing last year.

Brutus
07-02-2011, 11:41 PM
I knew I was having deja vu.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=84994

A lot of similarities in how I felt regarding OC vs Janish in 2011 along with the unbridled enthusiasm some were experiencing last year.

Unbridled enthusiasm?

Well, that's what led to Billy Mumphrey's downfall. Billy was a simple country boy. You might say a cockeyed optimist, who got himself mixed up in the high stakes game of world diplomacy and international intrigue.

edabbs44
07-03-2011, 07:35 AM
Unbridled enthusiasm?

Well, that's what led to Billy Mumphrey's downfall. Billy was a simple country boy. You might say a cockeyed optimist, who got himself mixed up in the high stakes game of world diplomacy and international intrigue.

Well done.

nate
07-03-2011, 01:09 PM
Is this a trick question?

I didn't think so but it sure seems to be a real stumper!

The one guy does have a higher OPS though...

:cool:

RedsManRick
07-03-2011, 01:53 PM
Heisey with a HR in his first AB today as a starter, playing CF, in a day game.

All of those things CDF cited could be explanations. Or it could just be small sample size.

I guess we'll just have to reserve judgement until his 2nd & 3rd PA today...

camisadelgolf
07-03-2011, 02:48 PM
Speaking of splits, Heisey hits much better while playing center field than any other position.

reds44
07-04-2011, 02:19 AM
Heisey now with an .801 OPS on the season.

That's fourth on the team for those of you scoring at home.

HokieRed
07-04-2011, 09:03 AM
Heisey now with an .801 OPS on the season.

That's fourth on the team for those of you scoring at home.

With a home run per AB that is almost identical to that of our All-Star rightfielder and the best RBI per AB number on the team (for those of us who still think this is a useful measure.)

Always Red
07-04-2011, 09:04 AM
Heisey now with an .801 OPS on the season.

That's fourth on the team for those of you scoring at home.


With a home run per AB that is almost identical to that of our All-Star rightfielder and the best RBI per AB number on the team (for those of us who still think this is a useful measure.)

Not too bad for a guy who can only hit when coming off the bench. :D

Give him some more playing time, and who knows- he might even be able to adjust better to the breaking balls and off speed stuff. :beerme:

reds44
07-04-2011, 11:15 AM
I remember when LF was a problem. Lewis is hitting well, Gomes obviously mashes LHP, and we all know how I feel about Heisey.

traderumor
07-04-2011, 11:22 AM
I remember when LF was a problem. Lewis is hitting well, Gomes obviously mashes LHP, and we all know how I feel about Heisey.A perceived problem, by some ;) But I will say that I'm tired of Gomes, would be fine with Heisey in LF/CF, Lewis getting 2-3 starts a week while Heisey or Stubbs sits.

reds44
07-06-2011, 08:23 PM
For the love of God just play him everyday. CF, LF, I don't care. Every. Day.

RedEye
07-06-2011, 08:25 PM
For the love of God just play him everyday. CF, LF, I don't care. Every. Day.

Amen, brotha. :D

Brutus
07-06-2011, 08:29 PM
For the love of God just play him everyday. CF, LF, I don't care. Every. Day.

I still don't know what he is, exactly, but he'd be on pace for nearly 4 wins above replacement based on his current numbers if he played as an everyday outfielder. That's good enough for me.

reds44
07-06-2011, 08:32 PM
I still don't know what he is, exactly, but he'd be on pace for nearly 4 wins above replacement based on his current numbers if he played as an everyday outfielder. That's good enough for me.
I don't think anybody knows what he is. But just let him play. I'm not talking about a weeks worth of starts either. Give him a month. We've sat through slumps from Gomes, Stubbs, Rolen, Janish (although that's not really a slump). Just let him play.

.821 OPS as of this moment and 10 homers in 155 ABs.

Brutus
07-06-2011, 08:35 PM
I don't think anybody knows what he is. But just let him play. I'm not talking about a weeks worth of starts either. Give him a month. We've sat through slumps from Gomes, Stubbs, Rolen, Janish (although that's not really a slump). Just let him play.

.821 OPS as of this moment and 10 homers in 155 ABs.

Agreed on all accounts. I think he does have the tools to be a productive everyday outfielder. On the other hand, the 3-headed platoon has been decent for the Reds, so I like Dusty's picking spots to play them all. Either way, I think Heisey is earning a shot.

klw
07-06-2011, 08:37 PM
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/cin/cat/atBats/split/109/cincinnati-reds


NAME GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
Drew Stubbs 70 304 50 78 12 1 10 30 122 32 104 21 2 .257 .333 .401 .735
Chris Heisey 14 49 11 11 1 0 4 9 24 3 19 1 0 .224 .278 .490 .768
Fred Lewis 6 24 2 6 0 0 0 4 6 1 4 0 1 .250 .269 .250 .519
Paul Janish 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000

reds44
07-06-2011, 08:38 PM
Bat Janish leadoff.

klw
07-06-2011, 08:39 PM
Bat Janish leadoff.

It is the clear conclusion. :D

edabbs44
07-06-2011, 08:42 PM
It may be just random, but maybe Dusty has figured out the types of pitchers the LFers are likely to have more success against. There hasn't been much rhyme or reason as to who these guys are facing lately.

klw
07-06-2011, 08:44 PM
What my tired brain found interesting from the numbers I posted above is that Hi-C k's at an even faster clip than Stubbs when each is in the leadoff spot.

Brutus
07-06-2011, 08:45 PM
It may be just random, but maybe Dusty has figured out the types of pitchers the LFers are likely to have more success against. There hasn't been much rhyme or reason as to who these guys are facing lately.

Well, I've noticed that Lewis has been getting starts in parks or against RHP he's had some experience with. Generally the rest of the RHP has been given to Heisey with Gomes facing most lefties.

edabbs44
07-06-2011, 08:47 PM
Well, I've noticed that Lewis has been getting starts in parks or against RHP he's had some experience with. Generally the rest of the RHP has been given to Heisey with Gomes facing most lefties.

I posted the other day, Gomes has a 7/7 split in his last 14 starts. Definitely a lean towards LHPs, however he did face Shields, Hellickson and Garza in that stretch.

reds44
07-06-2011, 08:48 PM
I posted the other day, Gomes has a 7/7 split in his last 14 starts. Definitely a lean towards LHPs, however he did face Shields, Hellickson and Garza in that stretch.
Do his last 14 games with no DH.

edabbs44
07-06-2011, 08:50 PM
Do his last 14 games with no DH.

What does that have to do with anything?

Brutus
07-06-2011, 08:51 PM
I posted the other day, Gomes has a 7/7 split in his last 14 starts. Definitely a lean towards LHPs, however he did face Shields, Hellickson and Garza in that stretch.

I think that was more of a situation where he got the two games in Tampa Bay because of sentimental loyalty to him and that he played there for several years.

edabbs44
07-06-2011, 08:53 PM
I think that was more of a situation where he got the two games in Tampa Bay because of sentimental loyalty to him and that he played there for several years.

He faced 2 RHPs in Balt as well.

reds44
07-06-2011, 08:59 PM
He faced 2 RHPs in Balt as well.
Do his last 14 without a DH. I bet it's a lot different.

edabbs44
07-06-2011, 09:21 PM
Do his last 14 without a DH. I bet it's a lot different.

5 RHP and 6 LHP in 11 starts prior to DH games, which stretches back to when he came back from the benching.

Big Klu
07-07-2011, 04:42 AM
I wouldn't start Stubbs until after the All-Star break. I wouldn't consider it a benching, but just some time off to get mentally right. I would still use him off the bench as a defensive replacement and a PH/PR. For the Milwaukee series I would start Heisey in CF, and platoon Lewis and Gomes in LF. The only way Stubbs might get a start is if the Reds want to give Bruce a day off against a tough lefty. Then Heisey could start in RF for that game.

OldXOhio
07-09-2011, 11:11 PM
I wouldn't start Stubbs until after the All-Star break. I wouldn't consider it a benching, but just some time off to get mentally right. I would still use him off the bench as a defensive replacement and a PH/PR. For the Milwaukee series I would start Heisey in CF, and platoon Lewis and Gomes in LF. The only way Stubbs might get a start is if the Reds want to give Bruce a day off against a tough lefty. Then Heisey could start in RF for that game.

That's a benching. He's earned one.