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View Full Version : Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop



Benihana
06-22-2011, 10:38 AM
Everyone wants something to happen, although there is much debate as to which needs must be prioritized. Is it a SS, a LF, or a pitcher? Below are three trade proposals which target players rumored to be available and attempt to address the primary needs of the teams involved. One thing to note is that all of the principals in each of these deals are signed beyond 2011, so they would not be rentals- which is both good and bad, as there are certainly some financial obligations the Reds would have to take on in each of these deals (I currently have them structured so that each team would be sending some money to the Reds.) I have listed them in order of most realistic to least realistic, yet my preferences would be inverted (least preferable to most preferable). Feel free to comment, criticize, or corroborate any of the below proposals:

Proposal 1: Baltimore Orioles (most realistic)
Reds Trade:
1B Yonder Alonso
LHP Travis Wood
OF Fred Lewis

Orioles Trade:
RHP Jeremy Guthrie
SS JJ Hardy
LF Luke Scott
$5 Million

Rationale: Guthrie is available and Reds have been reportedly interested. He would instantly become our 2nd or 3rd best pitcher, having a strong track record in the superior AL East. He and Scott are both signed through next year, extending our window to compete. Scott could at least platoon with Gomes but more likely be the everyday LF. Hardy provides a proven SS. Orioles need a 1B of the future as they currently employ Derrek Lee. Wood gives them another young arm to the stable of Britton, Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta. Lewis is replaced by the lefty hitting Scott.

Proposal 2: Los Angeles Dodgers
Reds Trade:1B Yonder Alonso
C Yasmani Grandal
3B/OF Juan Francisco
LHP Travis Wood

Dodgers Trade:
OF Matt Kemp OR Andre Ethier
SS Rafael Furcal
RHP Chad Billingsley
$5 Million

Rationale: Billingsley has fallen out of favor with Don Mattingly, and he is a local Ohio product who would be a solid #2 for the next few years. Kemp or Ethier would provide a RH masher to play LF and protect Bruce in the lineup (imagine a 3-4-5 of Votto-Bruce-Ethier/Kemp). Furcal is superflous now that Gordon is up, and the Dodgers would be happy to unload these salaries as their payroll problems are well documented. I doubt MLB will let the Dodgers pull a blockbuster before they are repossessed though. Dodgers are in desperate need of a 1B as Loney sucks. Grandal gives them a catcher and Wood a pitcher for the future when they can be competitive again 2-3 years from now, long after Kemp/Ethier and Furcal will be gone.

Proposal 3: Florida Marlins (my favorite)
Reds Trade:
1B Yonder Alonso
C Yasmani Grandal
SS Edgar Renteria
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Edinson Volquez

Marlins Trade:
SS Hanley Ramirez
RHP Anibal Sanchez
$5 Million

Rationale: Almost makes too much sense. HanRam has fallen out of favor in Florida and several people are now calling for him to be traded. While it seems a fantasyland proposal at first, Cincy native Marlins GM Mike Hill has shown a propensity to do these types of blockbusters in the past, although hopefully this works out better than the Cabrera/Willis for Maybin/Miller deal did. This trade is actually quite similar to that one, with the Marlins trading their All-World hitter and one of their best pitchers for two (in this case three) top prospects, all of which are of Cuban descent. Alonso and Grandal would both be coming home, and Renteria could finish his career where he started it and became a WS MVP. Biggest question here is whether Reds can absorb HanRam's contract (due >$50MM over next four years). Would certainly spell the end of Phillips and Votto in Cincy once their current deals expire, although getting Chapman off the books would help mitigate it somewhat.

klw
06-22-2011, 11:05 AM
I doubt the Dodgers would be sending money to anyone in a deal. They have a big concern about making payroll in the shortrun so to get big name players from them the Reds would be likely getting them because the money burden shifts away from LA.

RedsManRick
06-22-2011, 11:17 AM
My quick reactions:

- Guthrie is a mid-rotation starter, just get LeCure back and you're in the same place. Hardy is a legit upgrade, but playing over his head offensively. Luke Scott has the same OPS as Chris Heisey and is a poor defensive LF.

- Gordon is up because Furcal cannot stay healthy

- Ramirez is a SS like Alonso is a LF. He also has a .601 OPS. I love the idea of acquiring Ramirez, but he's our LF or 3B of the future, not our SS fix in 2011. He also makes $15M, $15.5M, and $16M the next three years. I'm not sure if the money is there and even if it is for 2011, you're not picking up Phillips' option next year. On top of all of that, Ramirez is not exactly known for his great attitude and work ethic. Some of that is likely a lack of a mentor and his early success giving him a free pass -- but something tells me that won't fly in Cincy.

I'm not against a trade at all, but we have a bit of tendency to engage in grass-is-greener thinking in suggestions like this.

_Sir_Charles_
06-22-2011, 11:21 AM
My quick reactions:

- Guthrie is a mid-rotation starter, just get LeCure back and you're in the same place. Hardy is a legit upgrade, but playing over his head offensively. Luke Scott has the same OPS as Chris Heisey and is a poor defensive LF.

- Gordon is up because Furcal cannot stay healthy

- Ramirez is a SS like Alonso is a LF. He also has a .601 OPS. I love the idea of acquiring Ramirez, but he's our LF or 3B of the future, not our SS fix in 2011. He also makes $15M, $15.5M, and $16M the next three years. I'm not sure if the money is there and even if it is for 2011, you're not picking up Phillips' option next year. On top of all of that, Ramirez is not exactly known for his great attitude and work ethic. Some of that is likely a lack of a mentor and his early success giving him a free pass -- but something tells me that won't fly in Cincy.

I'm not against a trade at all, but we have a bit of tendency to engage in grass-is-greener thinking in suggestions like this.

I'm not really FOR acquiring Ramirez...but I'd think that Dusty might be the perfect person to be that mentor for Ramirez and to knock him into shape. But that contract...I don't see it happening.

Dan
06-22-2011, 11:37 AM
I think you're giving up too much in any of these trades.

Fixing the Reds means picking up an offensive-minded LF and a solid/ace pitcher. Doesn't have to be in the same trade.

Personally I would like to see one of these players traded for (in this order):
Kemp
Ethier
Beltran
Quentin
Cuddyer
Ludwick

As for pitchers, I don't know that there's one on the market I'd really want. Guthrie would be nice, but I wouldn't give up Wood. Wood is going through the growing pains any young pitcher goes through. Remember, this time last year he had yet to make his major league debut. Plus he's our only legitimate LH starter option unless Chapman turns the corner in a hurry. Besides Guthrie, I think a no-brainer trade, if the Giants are on board, is Hernandez and Boxberger for Jonathan Sanchez.

I can live with Janish at SS as long as the Reds pick up the LFer. But considering an improvement at SS, I'd look at Hardy or Furcal. If Furcal is healthy he would be an outstanding leadoff hitter. That would move Stubbs to the #2 hole, which I think he's better suited for. If Hardy was acquired, he would bat 2nd or down in the order and we would be living with Stubbs' strikeouts at leadoff.

Always Red
06-22-2011, 11:42 AM
Given the Dodgers economic issues, and the fact that MLB is going to take that team over within the next week or so, I don't see them being sellers.

When MLB gets control, they will do everything they can to prop the Dodgers up, and may even be buyers in order to attract strong new ownership. Or at the least, not sell off their best assets for young players.

I kind of like the Orioles deal, though Hardy will be a rental.

Benihana
06-22-2011, 12:06 PM
My quick reactions:

- Guthrie is a mid-rotation starter, just get LeCure back and you're in the same place. Hardy is a legit upgrade, but playing over his head offensively. Luke Scott has the same OPS as Chris Heisey and is a poor defensive LF.

Guthrie is NOT the same as LeCure, not even close.


- Gordon is up because Furcal cannot stay healthy

The Dodgers have no use for Furcal, who is a FA at the end of this season on a team going nowhere. Gordon is their future at that position, and they would happily give him away to anyone who would pay his salary. I do agree with the other poster who said they won't be sending money to anyone anytime soon though.


- Ramirez is a SS like Alonso is a LF. He also has a .601 OPS. I love the idea of acquiring Ramirez, but he's our LF or 3B of the future, not our SS fix in 2011. He also makes $15M, $15.5M, and $16M the next three years. I'm not sure if the money is there and even if it is for 2011, you're not picking up Phillips' option next year. On top of all of that, Ramirez is not exactly known for his great attitude and work ethic. Some of that is likely a lack of a mentor and his early success giving him a free pass -- but something tells me that won't fly in Cincy.

I'm not against a trade at all, but we have a bit of tendency to engage in grass-is-greener thinking in suggestions like this.

I'd be fine with HanRam being our SS until Rolen gets injured/is ready to retire, probably in late 2012 or early 2013. At that time, he can move over to 3B where he plays out the rest of his contract, and Cozart or eventually Hamilton can take over at SS. I think the combination of Dusty, Rolen, and winning baseball could get him back to what he was for the past 4 years- one of the five best players in the game hands down.

hebroncougar
06-22-2011, 12:14 PM
One much simpler way to fix LF is to trade for Bletran. I'm sure the Mets are looking to dump payroll, he'd be much cheaper. With his bat in LF, you can live with Janish at SS.

RedsManRick
06-22-2011, 12:18 PM
Guthrie is NOT the same as LeCure, not even close.

Really?



K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB/FB Contact SwStr ERA FIP xFIP
Guthrie 5.5 2.5 1.2 0.97 85.5% 6.4% 4.12 4.65 4.58
LeCure 7.4 3.6 1.2 1.23 84.2% 6.4% 3.95 4.64 4.14

There is admittedly a pretty small sample size with LeCure, but do the Reds really need to go out and get a guy who doesn't miss bats and is homer prone? Guthrie is a decent starter. But the only thing that makes him better than the Reds suite of options is health.

Benihana
06-22-2011, 12:24 PM
Really?



K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB/FB Contact SwStr ERA FIP xFIP
Guthrie 5.5 2.5 1.2 0.97 85.5% 6.4% 4.12 4.65 4.58
LeCure 7.4 3.6 1.2 1.23 84.2% 6.4% 3.95 4.64 4.14

There is admittedly a pretty small sample size with LeCure, but do the Reds really need to go out and get a guy who doesn't miss bats and is homer prone? Guthrie is a decent starter. But the only thing that makes him better than the Reds suite of options is health.


Guthrie has thrown at least 175 innings of sub 4-ERA ball in the AL East for four of the last five years. If LeCure ever throws 175 innings in a season with a sub-4 ERA in his career, I'll be surprised. Sorry, but the two are not even close to comparable.

bucksfan2
06-22-2011, 12:43 PM
Given the Dodgers economic issues, and the fact that MLB is going to take that team over within the next week or so, I don't see them being sellers.

When MLB gets control, they will do everything they can to prop the Dodgers up, and may even be buyers in order to attract strong new ownership. Or at the least, not sell off their best assets for young players.

I kind of like the Orioles deal, though Hardy will be a rental.

I would look at it the other way. The McCourts look like they won't be able to meet their next salary payment. If that happens MLB and all the other owners will assume the debts of the club. I don't think Bob Castellini would want to help fun the Dodgers, but thats just me.

Always Red
06-22-2011, 12:49 PM
I would look at it the other way. The McCourts look like they won't be able to meet their next salary payment. If that happens MLB and all the other owners will assume the debts of the club. I don't think Bob Castellini would want to help fun the Dodgers, but thats just me.

You might be right, but MLB needs the proud, tradition-rich Dodger franchise to be a strong and vibrant. When Hicks ran into trouble with the Rangers last year, MLB took them over and improved the club (admittedly, the Rangers were having a much better year last year than the Dodgers are this year).

Will M
06-22-2011, 01:15 PM
Ethier cannot hit lefties at all & his power has faded. If we got him dirt cheap then fine but I wouldn't want to see us trade real value for him.

cinreds21
06-22-2011, 01:22 PM
The only realistic trade out of those is the first one. Guthrie can be had, but doesn't Baltimore want to lock up Hardy long-term?
Los Angeles is not going to deal Matt Kemp, who is one of the best players in baseball right now. They aren't going to deal him off right now, even with the money issues.
And the Marlins trade. No. Despite what these dumb beat reporters are saying, the Marlins are not going to trade Hanley. Not going to happen. And nor are they going to trade Anibal. He's been their ace this year (with JJ out) and they are likely going to lock him up. And does anyone remember that Hanley has been one of the top three position players in baseball the past five years? I guess not. Yea, he's struggling mightily, but he's not Edgar Renteria. Come on.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-22-2011, 01:35 PM
The only realistic trade out of those is the first one. Guthrie can be had, but doesn't Baltimore want to lock up Hardy long-term?
Los Angeles is not going to deal Matt Kemp, who is one of the best players in baseball right now. They aren't going to deal him off right now, even with the money issues.
And the Marlins trade. No. Despite what these dumb beat reporters are saying, the Marlins are not going to trade Hanley. Not going to happen. And nor are they going to trade Anibal. He's been their ace this year (with JJ out) and they are likely going to lock him up. And does anyone remember that Hanley has been one of the top three position players in baseball the past five years? I guess not. Yea, he's struggling mightily, but he's not Edgar Renteria. Come on.

Until we see the scroll at the bottom of ESPN one afternoon that says the Marlins trade Hanley Ramirez to STL for a couple of AA pitchers.

cinreds21
06-22-2011, 01:40 PM
Until we see the scroll at the bottom of ESPN one afternoon that says the Marlins trade Hanley Ramirez to STL for a couple of AA pitchers.

You really think it's going to happen?

RedsManRick
06-22-2011, 02:05 PM
Guthrie has thrown at least 175 innings of sub 4-ERA ball in the AL East for four of the last five years. If LeCure ever throws 175 innings in a season with a sub-4 ERA in his career, I'll be surprised. Sorry, but the two are not even close to comparable.

Sorry, but I base my decisions on what a guy is likely to do moving forward. What he's done in the past is only relevant insofar as it helps us predict the future. Are they the exact same? No. In a bubble, would I choose Guthrie over LeCure? Probably. Would I trade Travis Wood to get him Guthrie? No.

Benihana
06-22-2011, 02:09 PM
Sorry, but I base my decisions on what a guy is likely to do moving forward. What he's done in the past is only relevant insofar as it helps us predict the future. Are they the exact same? No. In a bubble, would I choose Guthrie over LeCure? Probably. Would I trade anything of value to get Guthrie? No.

That's why I said, LeCure will be lucky to ever throw 175 IP of a sub-4 ERA in one season, for his entire career. Guthrie will very likely provide it for this year and next.

RedsManRick
06-22-2011, 02:25 PM
That's why I said, LeCure will be lucky to ever throw 175 IP of a sub-4 ERA in one season, for his entire career. Guthrie will very likely provide it for this year and next.

I disagree with this statement. As a flyball pitcher in GABP and on the wrong side of 30, I don't think he's likely to put up 175 IP of a sub-4 ERA. It's certainly a possibility, but I don't think it's a greater than 50% chance. But furthermore, it's not just about Guthrie. It about the cost to acquire him. It's about Guthrie vs. the alternatives -- both performance and cost. Guthrie at $8-10M in 2012 or Travis Wood/Sam LeCure? Is Guthrie likely to be 2 wins better than the guy he'll replace in 2012? I don't think so.

I think you're comparing his upside to our guys' downside. Again, in a bubble, i take the guy. But if I'm trading away 6 years of Alonso and 5 of Wood, I want more than a year and a half of an innings eater .

Benihana
06-22-2011, 02:30 PM
I think you're comparing his upside to our guys' downside. Again, in a bubble, i take the guy. But if I'm trading away 6 years of Alonso and 5 of Wood, I want more than a year and a half of an innings eater .

OK, well how about an "innings eater" and a significant upgrade at SS and LF, as was originally proposed? Also, don't forget my proposal had the O's sending money over to cover some of the added costs. I don't include Wood unless that happens.

RedsManRick
06-22-2011, 02:56 PM
OK, well how about an "innings eater" and a significant upgrade at SS and LF, as was originally proposed? Also, don't forget my proposal had the O's sending money over to cover some of the added costs. I don't include Wood unless that happens.

As I've pointed our earlier:

- Hardy is an upgrade, but can't be expected to continue to hit like he's done so far and we have a player in the minors performing very well who profiles to be extremely similar. He is 28, makes $5.85M and will be a free agent. One decent projection system, ZiPS projects him for as .272/.327/.437 bat the rest of the season.

- Luke Scott is not upgrade. He's a better hitter than Heisey but a significantly worse defender. And while I concede the point I made earlier about using projections not just year-to-date stats, so far this year, he's not been a better hitter. He's 33, makes $6.4M this year and will be arb eligble. He would not likely be retained in 2012. ZiPS projects him at .254/.340/.461.

These guys are ok complimentary players. But including Guthrie you're talking ~3 wins over the rest of the season and little return thereafter (a market-priced Guthrie in 2012). You're giving up quite a bit for that. Yeah, those are 3 valuable wins if they mean the difference between the playoffs and staying home. But if we're trading Alonso and Wood to get 2-3 wins, get one really big upgrade somewhere that will last beyond 2012 and see what you have internally to address the other situations.

Going outside of the organization to get mediocre upgrades without trying the in house options strikes me as not a smart approach.

Benihana
06-22-2011, 03:21 PM
As I've pointed our earlier:

- Hardy is an upgrade, but can't be expected to continue to hit like he's done so far and we have a player in the minors performing very well who profiles to be extremely similar. He is 28, makes $5.85M and will be a free agent. One decent projection system, ZiPS projects him for as .272/.327/.437 bat the rest of the season.

Consensus, upgrade. I too would rather try Cozart first, but for some reason the Reds seem categorically opposed to that.


- Luke Scott is not upgrade. He's a better hitter than Heisey but a significantly worse defender. And while I concede the point I made earlier about using projections not just year-to-date stats, so far this year, he's not been a better hitter. He's 33, makes $6.4M this year and will be arb eligble. He would not likely be retained in 2012. ZiPS projects him at .254/.340/.461.

I don't love Scott, but he would certainly be an offensive upgrade over what we're putting out there. Defensively, he is better than Gomes, so again he would be better than what we are putting out there. I would reiterate here that I'd rather try Alonso or Sappelt here first, but the Reds brass seems to disagree.


These guys are ok complimentary players. But including Guthrie you're talking ~3 wins over the rest of the season and little return thereafter (a market-priced Guthrie in 2012). You're giving up quite a bit for that. Yeah, those are 3 valuable wins if they mean the difference between the playoffs and staying home. But if we're trading Alonso and Wood to get 2-3 wins, get one really big upgrade somewhere that will last beyond 2012 and see what you have internally to address the other situations.

Going outside of the organization to get mediocre upgrades without trying the in house options strikes me as not a smart approach.

They did try the in house option in the rotation. Sam LeCure had a 4.50 ERA and >1.50 WHIP as a starter. Chad Reineke and Daryl Thompson fared worse. Travis Wood is in the minors, and Edinson Volquez has already been there. We're out of in-house options for the rotation. Guthrie is clearly an upgrade over any of them.

Brutus
06-22-2011, 04:19 PM
None of those proposals are even remotely realistic, as much as I'd be fine with any of them. Teams just don't trade multiple established players in a trade like that. I'd love Matt Kemp, but the Dodgers probably won't even trade him let along including Furcal and/or Bililngsley too. Same with the Orioles and Hardy/Scott or the Marlins with Hanley/Anibal.

At most, if the Reds could get any of those players, it would be in a single-player trade.

Benihana
06-22-2011, 04:23 PM
None of those proposals are even remotely realistic, as much as I'd be fine with any of them. Teams just don't trade multiple established players in a trade like that. I'd love Matt Kemp, but the Dodgers probably won't even trade him let along including Furcal and/or Bililngsley too. Same with the Orioles and Hardy/Scott or the Marlins with Hanley/Anibal.

At most, if the Reds could get any of those players, it would be in a single-player trade.

Mike Hill and the Cabrera/Willis trade says :wave:

Benihana
06-22-2011, 04:39 PM
From MLBTR chat today:


2:26 [Comment From Andy McPhailAndy McPhail: ]
J.J. Hardy. What's he worth to a team like the Giants, Rays, Reds, etc? You think Brandon Belt, Desmond Jennings, or Yonder Alonso?

2:27 I think all but Alonso are probably off-limits. But I do think Alonso is a fair return for Hardy the way he has been playing.

Brutus
06-22-2011, 04:46 PM
Mike Hill and the Cabrera/Willis trade says :wave:

Dontrelle Willis had a 5.17 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in the year preceding his trade. That wasn't exactly a hard sell to make. A lot of scouts didn't buy into Willis even prior to that year.

Even so, outside of the Marlins with that deal and the one that included Mike Lowell to Boston with Josh Beckett because of finances, very, very few trades include multiple players like that.

It's still not realistic, even if there are a few outliers.

mth123
06-23-2011, 04:37 AM
I don't think Proposals 2 or 3 are very likely. As for proposal 1, I think the acquisition of Guthrie, Scott and Hardy could go a long way toward fixing this team's ills, but there is absolutley no way that I'd trade Travis Wood without getting a lead pipe cinch certified TOR starter who would be more than a rental in retiurn. Make it Volquez and stipulate that he O's have to take Renteria and Lewis and the O's add cash and I'm for it.

1. Guthrie is a better bet than most of the Reds current group of starters and suspect depth. He's not a number 1 or even a number 2, but he is solid "write it down" stability that despite the Reds relative riches in quantity of arms, this team is lacking. Too many spots in the rotation are filled by question marks and anyone making rotation plans that include Homer Bailey for the rest of the season is making a mistake IMO. If the team could deal a blocked prospect and an arm we've mostly run out patience with for a solid producer while addressing SS and finding a platoon partner for Gomes they should do it. There are some concerns about Guthrie's back. If this is a real concern, then all bets are off. The reason to deal for a guy like Guthrie is to reduce the number of question marks. If adding him is simply adding a new one, there is absolutely no reason to do it.

2. A LF platoon of Gomes and Scott would adequately address concerns about this offense IMO. Scott's career splits against RHP .274/.360/.507/.868 while Gomes against LHP is .282/.378/.512/.890. Those two could reasonably be expected to put up an .850 plus OPS as a combo sharing LF and hitting in the 5 hole. IMO, it is exactly what this team is lacking from a position player standpoint.

3. Hardy probably won't continue to put up an OPS above .800, but he's a good defender who should do well to add some punch at the bottom of the order (or perhaps the 2 hole if Phillips continues to struggle).

Cueto
Arroyo
Guthrie
Leake
Bailey/Wood (Wood in AAA while Bailey is "healthy" but probably in the 5 spot most of the time)

Lecure
Willis
Arredondo
Ondrusek
Massett
Bray
Cordero

Stubbs CF
Hardy SS
Votto 1B
Bruce LF
Scott/Gomes LF
Rolen 3B
Phillips 2B
Hernandez/Hanigan C

Janish, Heisey, Cairo

Still lots of stuff in AAA if needed.

schroomytunes
06-23-2011, 06:41 AM
I just dont see any of the above trades happening. I think Walt really likes our prospects and he will not part with them for anything that's not an ace! Now a trade I could see him making and it fills a need for us is this one:

Reds Trade- Chris Valaika, Matt Maloney, and Yasmani Grandal

Padres Trade- Ryan Ludwick

cinreds21
06-23-2011, 07:30 AM
I just dont see any of the above trades happening. I think Walt really likes our prospects and he will not part with them for anything that's not an ace! Now a trade I could see him making and it fills a need for us is this one:

Reds Trade- Chris Valaika, Matt Maloney, and Yasmani Grandal

Padres Trade- Ryan Ludwick

That's too much for Ludwick. He is definitely not worth Yas.