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View Full Version : Hey Reds fans...We have a number 1 starter. Johnny Cueto



paulrichjr
06-22-2011, 11:13 PM
A number one does the following in my opinion:

You expect him to win every time he goes to the mound.

He finds a way to beat good teams.

He makes a great offense look like a minor league team.

He is who you want to start game 1 of the World Series.

He stops losing streaks.

Johnny Cueto is ours...the first one we have had since.....? Rijo?

LvJ
06-22-2011, 11:15 PM
Yes sir. Hands down. You can put him up against anyone in the league and feel confident that he'll get the win. A true game changer and stopper. Really needed that tonight.

Griffey012
06-23-2011, 12:11 AM
Dude doesn't strike a ton of people out. Dude doesn't throw upper 90's. Dude doesn't "Wow" you with nasty pitches. He only has 3 pitches he consistently throws in the proper part of the zone and gets hitters out with. No way he can be an "Ace."

The Voice of IH
06-23-2011, 12:17 AM
:notworthy: :notworthy: :notworthy:

Will M
06-23-2011, 12:37 AM
Johnny is a nice pitcher. He is the best starter on the team. yet he is not an ace like Hallady, Lee, Felix, etc. if the Reds want to win the World Series and not just win the NL Central they need at least one starter better than Johnny. preferably two.

Superdude
06-23-2011, 01:17 AM
Dude doesn't strike a ton of people out. Dude doesn't throw upper 90's. Dude doesn't "Wow" you with nasty pitches. He only has 3 pitches he consistently throws in the proper part of the zone and gets hitters out with. No way he can be an "Ace."

He did hit 97MPH tonight...that was plenty of heat the last time I checked. I would have said the same thing a month ago, but whether it's the delivery or what, his stuff is better than I've ever seen it recently. The two keys in my opinion are groundballs and K's.

He's getting an obscene amount of groundballs so far after being a flyball pitcher early in his career. If that's not a fluke, Cueto's got a lot of success coming his way.

And the K rate is just intriguing. He's trended up in that department recently, and I have a hard time seeing him with a k/9 around 6 the way he's throwing the ball right now. If he can get back close to his rookie year in that regard and keep the ground balls coming, he's as sure fire of a stud as you're gonna find.

Lots of "if's" right now, and the ace tag is probably a little premature, but I definitely wouldn't count him out.

reds44
06-23-2011, 01:21 AM
He's 25 years old and he's literally improved every single year he's been in the majors. I don't care what you call him, there's nothing not to like about him.

Baseball tonight had an interesting segment about the tweak in his delivery. It looks like he stole it from Felix Hernandez.

Matt700wlw
06-23-2011, 01:47 AM
A few years ago, Tim Nehring told me that Johnny Cueto was the pitcher to watch out for...this is when he was still in the minors.

Tim Nehring's looking pretty smart :)

Brutus
06-23-2011, 01:49 AM
A tale of two pitchers


ERA k/9 bb/9 hr/9 FIP xFIP GB/FB SS% BABIP
Pitcher A 4.19 6.40 2.21 0.93 3.86 3.70 1.40 8.3% 0.293
Pitcher B 1.63 6.23 2.67 0.59 3.56 3.67 1.65 7.4% 0.234


I wonder if the Reds could have two stoppers than just one!

Griffey012
06-23-2011, 01:59 AM
He did hit 97MPH tonight...that was plenty of heat the last time I checked. I would have said the same thing a month ago, but whether it's the delivery or what, his stuff is better than I've ever seen it recently. The two keys in my opinion are groundballs and K's.

He's getting an obscene amount of groundballs so far after being a flyball pitcher early in his career. If that's not a fluke, Cueto's got a lot of success coming his way.

And the K rate is just intriguing. He's trended up in that department recently, and I have a hard time seeing him with a k/9 around 6 the way he's throwing the ball right now. If he can get back close to his rookie year in that regard and keep the ground balls coming, he's as sure fire of a stud as you're gonna find.

Lots of "if's" right now, and the ace tag is probably a little premature, but I definitely wouldn't count him out.

My original post was 100% sarcasm, sorry if it was taken the wrong way. I agree, I think Cueto can be an ace, he does have the ability to strike a guy out when need be. But I think he has learned to use that strategically to go deeper into games. Not to mention, in his 1 playoff start last season he pitched pretty well.

Superdude
06-23-2011, 02:02 AM
My original post was 100% sarcasm, sorry if it was taken the wrong way. I agree, I think Cueto can be an ace, he does have the ability to strike a guy out when need be. But I think he has learned to use that strategically to go deeper into games. Not to mention, in his 1 playoff start last season he pitched pretty well.

Ohhh my bad. I've never seen anyone defend their sarcasm in such a levelheaded manner. :laugh:

cinreds21
06-23-2011, 02:02 AM
He's not a sexy pick, but he's doing ace-type stuff this year; so we'll take it.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2011, 02:59 AM
Johnny is a nice pitcher. He is the best starter on the team. yet he is not an ace like Hallady, Lee, Felix, etc. if the Reds want to win the World Series and not just win the NL Central they need at least one starter better than Johnny. preferably two.

Randy Johnson didn't break into the big leagues until he was 25 and didn't really start to dominate until he was 28-29. Did you consider him an ace?

Will M
06-23-2011, 03:40 AM
Randy Johnson didn't break into the big leagues until he was 25 and didn't really start to dominate until he was 28-29. Did you consider him an ace?

of couse Johnson was an ace in his prime years. he will be voted into the Hall of Fame.

IMO Reds fans have their goals set too low. a couple of years ago Harang was an 'ace' because he could keep his ERA under 4. in GABP thats a nice pitcher. however its not a Jose Rijo or Cliff Lee type that can be the guy who leads the team to a world series championship. people are starting to talk like Cueto is an ace. i don't buy it. i thought this offseason that Johnny was a #3 type pitcher who could be a #2. right now he is pitching like a #2. buts thats not gonna be enough to win it all & THATS what i want as a fan.

i feel that the team needs several things. if they seriously want to compete for the championship i feel they need...
1) a true ace
2) probably a 2nd pitcher better than Cueto. this could be a healthy Homer
3) upgrade at SS
4) upgrade in LF

To me Bob blew it in late 2010 and the 2010-2011 offseason by not getting any of the 4 strong starters that were traded. the fact that 2 of them went to the Brewers hurts doubly. if the team had gotten even one of these guys & been more proactive at fixing the holes at SS/LF we could be in the drivers seat right now & talking about what we need to really set us up for a post season run. thats water under the bridge. but it doesn't change the fact that a roation led by Cueto #2, Leake #3?, Arroyo #3/4, Bailey #2/3?? (if healthy) & Volquez does not match up well with anybody come October.

CrackerJack
06-23-2011, 03:41 AM
He's been as good as anyone for the 53+ innings he's pitched so far. By far the best SP the Reds have and probably will all year long.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2011, 03:54 AM
of couse Johnson was an ace in his prime years. he will be voted into the Hall of Fame.

IMO Reds fans have their goals set too low. a couple of years ago Harang was an 'ace' because he could keep his ERA under 4. in GABP thats a nice pitcher. however its not a Jose Rijo or Cliff Lee type that can be the guy who leads the team to a world series championship. people are starting to talk like Cueto is an ace. i don't buy it. i thought this offseason that Johnny was a #3 type pitcher who could be a #2. right now he is pitching like a #2. buts thats not gonna be enough to win it all & THATS what i want as a fan.

i feel that the team needs several things. if they seriously want to compete for the championship i feel they need...
1) a true ace
2) probably a 2nd pitcher better than Cueto. this could be a healthy Homer
3) upgrade at SS
4) upgrade in LF

To me Bob blew it in late 2010 and the 2010-2011 offseason by not getting any of the 4 strong starters that were traded. the fact that 2 of them went to the Brewers hurts doubly. if the team had gotten even one of these guys & been more proactive at fixing the holes at SS/LF we could be in the drivers seat right now & talking about what we need to really set us up for a post season run. thats water under the bridge. but it doesn't change the fact that a roation led by Cueto #2, Leake #3?, Arroyo #3/4, Bailey #2/3?? (if healthy) & Volquez does not match up well with anybody come October.

Did you think Johnson was an ace in his first few years in the bigs? The point I'm making is that Cueto has improved each year and he may be a "true" ace in the making.

I don't think anyone would disagree that we need better starting pitching.

edabbs44
06-23-2011, 08:33 AM
Cueto's throwing well, but let's reel in our expectations before the "Cueto is a disappointment" threads emerge when his ERA starts to rise.

cumberlandreds
06-23-2011, 08:52 AM
I wouldn't put him in the Halladay,Lincecum or Felix Hernandez crowd yet. If Cueto continues like he has been over the rest of this season and into next season I believe you can say he's an ace. IMO, the title of ace has to be earned and just not given out freely or because someone has been dominant in a few starts. I'm beginning to be cautiously optimistic that Cueto may just be that ace the Reds have been looking for. But I wll hold off on crowning him that for just a while yet.

traderumor
06-23-2011, 09:08 AM
I don't know why folks feel the need to put a moniker on someone. It merely creates a feeding frenzy with 100 different definitions for the moniker.

Oh, and do the Reds need a SS and LFer? Wow, that's the first I've heard that one :rolleyes:

_Sir_Charles_
06-23-2011, 09:18 AM
Johnny is a nice pitcher. He is the best starter on the team. yet he is not an ace like Hallady, Lee, Felix, etc. if the Reds want to win the World Series and not just win the NL Central they need at least one starter better than Johnny. preferably two.

He's just now getting into his stride IMO. People need to remember just how young he is. He very well could be having that year where he takes that next step forward into that category you mentioned with the other "aces". Looking at his numbers thus far this year, it's hard to argue that he's NOT in that category right now.

RedsManRick
06-23-2011, 10:03 AM
Looking at the pitch f/x data, his fastball isn't any faster than it's been in the past. But there are a few things that jump out at me:
- Slider velocity is down 2+ mph, giving him more separation with the fastball
- The bottom is falling out of that slider as well; he's getting 2 more inches of vertical break on his slider compared to last year, which is 4" more than 2009

And that shows up in the pitch values as well. For the first time in his career, his slider is a legitimate weapon. And perhaps because of that, his fastball has been the most effective fastball in baseball among pitchers with 50+ IP.

lollipopcurve
06-23-2011, 10:12 AM
Looking at the pitch f/x data, his fastball isn't any faster than it's been in the past. But there are a few things that jump out at me:
- Slider velocity is down 2+ mph, giving him more separation with the fastball
- The bottom is falling out of that slider as well; he's getting 2 more inches of vertical break on his slider compared to last year, which is 4" more than 2009

And that shows up in the pitch values as well. For the first time in his career, his slider is a legitimate weapon. And perhaps because of that, his fastball has been the most effective fastball in baseball among pitchers with 50+ IP.

Very interesting. What does it say about his changeup?

nate
06-23-2011, 10:44 AM
I think Cueto is a nice pitcher but I would look for that BABIP of .234 to rise and his GB rate to head from 55.9% towards his career rate of 42%.

That being said, I don't it's unlikely for him to end up with a mid-3.00 ERA. Very useful!

VR
06-23-2011, 12:02 PM
I don't miss the previous version, that melted down any time things started to get out of hand. His poise is kind of eerie this year, compared to where it's been.

If he breaks out the Luis Tiant mustache he might be a spitting image on the mound. (maybe add 40 lbs too)

paulrichjr
06-23-2011, 05:17 PM
....
i feel that the team needs several things. if they seriously want to compete for the championship i feel they need...
1) a true ace
2) probably a 2nd pitcher better than Cueto. this could be a healthy Homer
3) upgrade at SS
4) upgrade in LF

To me Bob blew it in late 2010 and the 2010-2011 offseason by not getting any of the 4 strong starters that were traded. the fact that 2 of them went to the Brewers hurts doubly. if the team had gotten even one of these guys & been more proactive at fixing the holes at SS/LF we could be in the drivers seat right now & talking about what we need to really set us up for a post season run. thats water under the bridge. but it doesn't change the fact that a roation led by Cueto #2, Leake #3?, Arroyo #3/4, Bailey #2/3?? (if healthy) & Volquez does not match up well with anybody come October.



I can't see Cueto being a number 2 on very many teams. Phillies sure (probably a 3)....but on a lot of teams he would be the number one starter. I understand he doesn't yet have the time as a number 1 to be thought of in the same league as a Halladay but there is only one Halladay.

Think of it this way, please name 20 starters you would trade Cueto for straight up. It would be hard to get to 15 in my opinion.

WIth pitchers in MLB that have pitched over 60IP this year he is #1 in ERA and #6 in WHIP. By the way, Volquez is number 6 in K/9, so we know right there that Ks aren't everything. (not that you said they were)

Playadlc
06-24-2011, 03:15 PM
I can't see Cueto being a number 2 on very many teams. Phillies sure (probably a 3)....but on a lot of teams he would be the number one starter. I understand he doesn't yet have the time as a number 1 to be thought of in the same league as a Halladay but there is only one Halladay.

Think of it this way, please name 20 starters you would trade Cueto for straight up. It would be hard to get to 15 in my opinion.

WIth pitchers in MLB that have pitched over 60IP this year he is #1 in ERA and #6 in WHIP. By the way, Volquez is number 6 in K/9, so we know right there that Ks aren't everything. (not that you said they were)

Cueto's xFIP is 3.52. You mentioned his 6.23 K rate, he’s leaving 83% men on and has a .216 BABIP.

Cueto is a very nice pitcher, but he's not a #1, IMO.