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IABucFan
08-01-2013, 03:09 PM
FWIW, I agree that given the Pirates' two previous collapses, this season needs to be looked at in that context. Given the topic of this thread, this article from Fangraphs seems relevant. Generally, I like Fangraphs. I'm not a big Sabermetric guy, generally speaking, but I definitely think the new statistical analysis has a great deal of merit. Fangraphs seems to me to have among the best statistical analysis out there.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-pittsburgh-pirates-arent-regressing/

bucksfan2
08-01-2013, 03:09 PM
The Pirates really have done nothing to change my prior feelings. As of today I am almost certain they will make the playoffs based upon the 2nd Wild Card and the lead they have.

The offense still doesn't do it for me. The starting pitching is holding up better than I expected, but will it continue to do so over the next 2 months? Hurdle has used and abused the pen and it has shown signs of breaking with Grilli out for an extended period of time. Will Cole and Locke be able to pitch successfully late into the season?

I give Hurdle credit for an aggressive managing style. He has treated almost every game like a must win game. So far that has the Pirates with the best record in baseball. My main question is whether or not that stress will show in August and September.

RedEye
08-01-2013, 03:22 PM
The Pirates really have done nothing to change my prior feelings. As of today I am almost certain they will make the playoffs based upon the 2nd Wild Card and the lead they have.

The offense still doesn't do it for me. The starting pitching is holding up better than I expected, but will it continue to do so over the next 2 months? Hurdle has used and abused the pen and it has shown signs of breaking with Grilli out for an extended period of time. Will Cole and Locke be able to pitch successfully late into the season?

I give Hurdle credit for an aggressive managing style. He has treated almost every game like a must win game. So far that has the Pirates with the best record in baseball. My main question is whether or not that stress will show in August and September.

So, bucksfan2, is this another way of saying you "aren't sold on the Pirates"?

Aha! An opinion that validates the title (albeit by a different poster). The thread lives on!

Chip R
08-01-2013, 04:59 PM
You have to give them credit for whipping up on StL after losing 2 of 3 to MIA and the Reds.

OldXOhio
08-01-2013, 08:07 PM
The offense still doesn't do it for me. The starting pitching is holding up better than I expected, but will it continue to do so over the next 2 months?



Thinking PIT agrees with you. Neil Huntington said on the Pirates broadcast last night that they were very close to making a big deal. Said he was willing to transact something crazy (involving some of their top prospects) but not over the top to acquire an OF bat (Pence? Rios?).

SporkLover
08-01-2013, 09:51 PM
The offense still doesn't do it for me. The starting pitching is holding up better than I expected, but will it continue to do so over the next 2 months? Hurdle has used and abused the pen and it has shown signs of breaking with Grilli out for an extended period of time. Will Cole and Locke be able to pitch successfully late into the season?

I'm of the same mindset. I'm not sure the starting pitching will hold, the bullpen has been used quite a bit, so I expect some cracks there, and the bats are a bit streaky.

I am certain they are destined for a winning season and an appearance in the post season however.

NL Central looks to be super competitive over the next few years. Cards have great prospects in their farm, as do the pirates.... And the bucs are young. the Cubs seemed to be postured to start playing above 500 ball next year, and the Reds shouldn't change much over the next year or so, and they have some good taken talent coming up. I look forward to the emergence of a,strong NL Centeal division.

RedEye
08-01-2013, 09:58 PM
I'm not sure the starting pitching will hold, the bullpen has been used quite a bit, so I expect some cracks there, and the bats are a bit streaky.

Change just a few words and this sounds like my car! :D

SporkLover
08-01-2013, 10:03 PM
Change just a few words and this sounds like my car! :D

LS1 powered Fbody. :laugh:

George Foster
08-02-2013, 12:24 AM
The pirates have 54 games left. They have the best record in all of MLB at 65-43. If they just play .500 baseball until the end of the season, they finish 92-70.

The reds are currently 60-49. In order to win the division they will have to at least go 33-20 in the next 53 games.

Oh...we have to hope that the Cards just play .500 baseball. They are 63-44.

Can this happen? Yes. Will it happen? HIGHLEY unlikely.

The Reds at this point have to hope they hold on to the Wild Card and that dreaded 1 game playoff.

HotCorner
08-14-2013, 09:47 AM
This why I'm not quite ready to hand the division to Pirates yet.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_08_13_pitmlb_slnmlb_1&mode=video&content_id=29681965&tcid=vpp_copy_29681965

This is a young team that has not learned to win and as the situations get bigger and the pressure gets more intense they are bound to have more growing pains.

Matt700wlw
08-14-2013, 09:54 AM
Pressure's on, Buccos....

BungleBengals
08-14-2013, 10:02 AM
The pirates have 54 games left. They have the best record in all of MLB at 65-43. If they just play .500 baseball until the end of the season, they finish 92-70.

The reds are currently 60-49. In order to win the division they will have to at least go 33-20 in the next 53 games.

Oh...we have to hope that the Cards just play .500 baseball. They are 63-44.

Can this happen? Yes. Will it happen? HIGHLEY unlikely.

The Reds at this point have to hope they hold on to the Wild Card and that dreaded 1 game playoff.

You are also forgetting to mention that the Cards and Pirates still play 8 more times this season. The Bucs face us 6 times and the Cards face us 7 times before the season is out. Hoping those two split and us winning respective series will go a long way to ensuring a repeat division winner.

757690
08-14-2013, 01:34 PM
The pirates have 54 games left. They have the best record in all of MLB at 65-43. If they just play .500 baseball until the end of the season, they finish 92-70.

The reds are currently 60-49. In order to win the division they will have to at least go 33-20 in the next 53 games.

Oh...we have to hope that the Cards just play .500 baseball. They are 63-44.

Can this happen? Yes. Will it happen? HIGHLEY unlikely.

The Reds at this point have to hope they hold on to the Wild Card and that dreaded 1 game playoff.

Ten days later, all that great figurin' is meaningless, lol.

3 1/2 back with 43 games to play, including 6 with the Bucs.

Not sure it's likely, but it's definitely not highly unlikely anymore.

*BaseClogger*
08-14-2013, 04:21 PM
Ten days later, all that great figurin' is meaningless, lol.

3 1/2 back with 43 games to play, including 6 with the Bucs.

Not sure it's likely, but it's definitely not highly unlikely anymore.

Simply taking four out of six against the Pirates and the Reds are 1.5 games back...

lidspinner
08-15-2013, 08:00 AM
this late in the year we cannot count on other teams to beat the cards and pirates, we need to at the very least win each series we play against them.....and hope we can eeek out a sweep of one or both at least once....

The cards have had their hot streak this year....the Pirates have had their hot streak this year.....heck even the Brewers have had a hot streak.....we have not. if we can find a way to put together one good hot streak then I think we can win the central......but we are not going to win it by playing like we have for the year.....we need to start winning 7 out of 10 the rest of the way.

we can almost say for a fact that the cards and pirates will play 500 baseball from here on out....as long as we get on that hot streak then we can make up a game every 10 days then we will be fine.....we just cant lose any games over those 10 day stretches...I like looking at the chase for the central in 10 game stretches.....it helps with not getting to high or low on a single game or 2.....its kind of like the old golf thread that kingspoint would do every year.....I wish he still did that..he was always one of my favorite posters here....I dont see him much around here anymore.

oneupper
08-15-2013, 09:08 AM
BP puts the odds of a REDS division crown at 25%.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

ThatPitchIsDunn
08-15-2013, 10:03 AM
BP puts the odds of a REDS division crown at 25%.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Wasn't it less than 10% a week ago?

Seven very productive days for the Redlegs. Hooray for the Cubs.

Chip R
09-03-2013, 11:13 PM
And the Buccos have clinched a .500 record.

The Operator
09-03-2013, 11:14 PM
And the Buccos have clinched a .500 record.I imagine there will be a ticker-tape parade, no?

IABucFan
09-03-2013, 11:24 PM
I'd say no...but, I may enjoy an adult beverage.

Chip R
09-03-2013, 11:24 PM
I'd say no...but, I may enjoy an adult beverage.

Iron City?

IABucFan
09-03-2013, 11:31 PM
Negative...personally, I can't stand the taste of beer. I know...I'm weird. I don't remember the last time I drank a beer, honestly. I'm thinking maybe Jack and Coke.

The Operator
09-03-2013, 11:31 PM
I'd say no...but, I may enjoy an adult beverage.Congrats, in all seriousness.

2010 was like heaven for me as a Reds fan and we only had to endure 2001-2009 as far as losing seasons is concerned.

I can't imagine what you guys must be feeling right now.

IABucFan
09-03-2013, 11:34 PM
Congrats, in all seriousness.

2010 was like heaven for me as a Reds fan and we only had to endure 2001-2009 as far as losing seasons is concerned.

I can't imagine what you guys must be feeling right now.

Thanks!

The DARK
09-03-2013, 11:49 PM
Indeed. No fan of any team should have to endure so much losing, and believe me when we say that the city of Cincinnati knows all about that. Enjoy this next month before we beat you to a pulp in the playoffs!

BluegrassRedleg
09-03-2013, 11:50 PM
Those last two series are shaping up to be intense.

Caveat Emperor
09-03-2013, 11:56 PM
I, for one, liked the Pirates a lot better when they were miserable bottom-feeders.

Red Swagger
09-04-2013, 12:07 AM
The Reds just need to stay within striking distance of the Pirates. Hopefully the 6 remaining games we have left with the Rats decide the NL Championship. These next 5 games left on our homestand are absolutely HUGE, we need to keep it rolling. How huge would a 4 game series sweep be against the WLB's?

jhiller21
09-04-2013, 12:20 AM
I, for one, liked the Pirates a lot better when they were miserable bottom-feeders.

There's nothing wrong with a little competition. The only team that gets to suck forever are the Cubs. I'm kinda glad for the Pirates, they've been terrible for years.

Until they really give me a reason to hate them, I'm kinda happy to see them succeed.

jhiller21
09-04-2013, 12:28 AM
Don't get me wrong though, if it comes down to the Reds facing them in the playoffs, sweep 'em.