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kaldaniels
06-23-2011, 12:37 AM
And maybe no one else is sold on them either...

But they have gotten several mentions on here the past few weeks in regards to the fact that they are sneaking up on the Reds and the other NL Central leaders.

I just expect that they will fade away over the next month. Not to say that they are not much improved and are a team on the rise. Just saying I don't believe they are long term contenders this season.

Big Klu
06-23-2011, 12:51 AM
I'll say the same thing that I've said since the first week of the season--fourth place. Which is a significant improvement and a step in the right direction for them.

MikeThierry
06-23-2011, 01:13 AM
And maybe no one else is sold on them either...

But they have gotten several mentions on here the past few weeks in regards to the fact that they are sneaking up on the Reds and the other NL Central leaders.

I just expect that they will fade away over the next month. Not to say that they are not much improved and are a team on the rise. Just saying I don't believe they are long term contenders this season.


I agree with you on that but I think that starting pitching could be good for years to come. If they could get a consistent/better offense they could be a dangerous team 2 or 3 years down the road.

GAC
06-23-2011, 05:25 AM
I hope they fade because I have a $20 bet with a Pirate fan in their head-to-head contest this year. I thought it was a sure thing, but so far we're 1-5 vs them. Not looking good for me so far. The last 9 games are all in Pitt.

Their pitching overall has been pretty solid. That's why they are still in it, and could very well be the rest of the year. Their offense is pretty much at the other end of the spectrum. If their pitching fades, then they'll be in trouble. But I'm not seeing many signs of that as of yet.

cumberlandreds
06-23-2011, 07:40 AM
I'll say the same thing that I've said since the first week of the season--fourth place. Which is a significant improvement and a step in the right direction for them.

That's what I think too. If they end up .500 they should have a parade in Pittsburgh. Their pitching has been great to this point. Can it continue will be the big question? If so they will hang around in the race because the NL Central is fairly weak. Ray Searage has done a phenomenal job as pitching coach turning those starters around.

_Sir_Charles_
06-23-2011, 08:14 AM
And maybe no one else is sold on them either...

But they have gotten several mentions on here the past few weeks in regards to the fact that they are sneaking up on the Reds and the other NL Central leaders.

I just expect that they will fade away over the next month. Not to say that they are not much improved and are a team on the rise. Just saying I don't believe they are long term contenders this season.

I agree. I don't think they'll hang around after the ASB, but one thing to consider...their offense is seriously under-performing. While I do expect them to fade, I also expect their offense to have a second half resurgence. It's the starting pitching that I expect to fade. Their starting rotation has been fabulous.

This is what I figured before the season, and I'm sticking with it.
Reds: Best record in second half
Brewers: Dogfight til the end, couple games out
Pirates: Near .500, falls a game or 2 short.
Cardinals: Few games behind Bucs
Cubs: Second half improvement, nearly overtaking Cards
Astros: Worst record in baseball

klw
06-23-2011, 09:30 AM
I am rooting for the Pirates to end up with 82 wins as long as a disproportionate amount of the wins do not come against the Reds.

Johnny Footstool
06-23-2011, 11:04 AM
The Pirates run differential says they should a few games under .500. Their pitching staff is relying on contact, which isn't a good thing.

They are getting better, but they will be lucky to finish with 80 wins.

traderumor
06-23-2011, 03:01 PM
I am rooting for the Pirates to end up with 82 wins as long as a disproportionate amount of the wins do not come against the Reds.They already have a disproportionate number of wins against the Reds :)

GAC
06-26-2011, 05:17 AM
Boston is a believer. ;)

blumj
06-26-2011, 08:01 AM
Boston is a believer. ;)
They're just getting back at the Reds for losing 2 of 3 to the Yankees.

membengal
07-19-2011, 09:39 PM
I wonder if fans in other NL Central cities said similar things about the Reds this time last year...

RedFanAlways1966
07-19-2011, 09:49 PM
I wonder if fans in other NL Central cities said similar things about the Reds this time last year...

Absolutely. :thumbup:

alexad
07-19-2011, 10:22 PM
The Pirates have shut out the Reds two games in a row. I'd buy what ever they are drinking right now. It might not be pretty but they are in first place. They must be doing something right.

WVRedsFan
07-19-2011, 10:28 PM
The Pirates run differential says they should a few games under .500. Their pitching staff is relying on contact, which isn't a good thing.

They are getting better, but they will be lucky to finish with 80 wins.I predict 90 wins. No joke. They are the 2011 version of the 2010 Reds and will suffer the same fate. First round loss, and like the Reds, they'll fade away.

Ghosts of 1990
07-19-2011, 10:28 PM
Fun year for the Pirates. They have everything they need to make a run at the NL Central and easily will finish 5 ahead of the Reds no matter how things shake out. They're better constructed.

Brutus
07-19-2011, 10:31 PM
I think the title of this thread should be amended to say, "I'm not sold on the Reds"

kaldaniels
07-19-2011, 10:37 PM
I'll go down with the ship on this one...still not sold.

Tony Cloninger
07-19-2011, 10:37 PM
I think the title of this thread should be amended to say, "I'm not sold on the Reds"


You took the words right out of my mouth. I am sure fans from other teams in the division that are looking down on the Reds....must laugh at this thread.

Not that it's not a legit thing to think but clearly they look better than the Reds.

oregonred
07-20-2011, 01:05 AM
But where would the Pirates be without that lofty 7-1 record against the Reds this season.

oregonred
07-20-2011, 01:09 AM
20 straight days in August the Pirates have the Brewers, Reds and Cardinals. That will give them an opportunity to seize the division or fall apart in spectacularly glorious fashion.

reds44
07-20-2011, 01:19 AM
Pirates will not finish about .500.

Matt700wlw
07-20-2011, 01:56 AM
I still think the Pirates fade.

Johnny Footstool
07-20-2011, 02:08 AM
Pirates will not finish about .500.

80 wins seems about right.

redsmetz
07-20-2011, 05:43 AM
But where would the Pirates be without that lofty 7-1 record against the Reds this season.

Last year we got fat on every division rival but the Cardinals which we rode to the title: Cubs (12-4), Astros (10-5), Brewers (11-3) and the Pirates (10-6). We were 6-12 against the Redbirds. That's 49 of our 91 wins (~ 54%). Clearly we'd have been considerably less successful last year without our great record against our division rivals (.620 last season).

membengal
07-20-2011, 06:24 AM
What redsmetz said. The model the Pirates are using at this point, beating up mercilessly on the have nots of the NL Central and riding that to the division, is the exact same one that the Reds used last year.

I think the problem a lot are having seeing that is that the Reds are one of the "have nots" in the NL Central. It is what it is, I would submit.

vaticanplum
07-20-2011, 03:47 PM
I keep waiting for the wheels to come off their starting pitching, particularly Karstens. I thought maybe that might happen today but he pitched very well. We'll see what happens in the dog days of August, though. If they can make it through that, and acquire some depth at the deadline to cover their spate of injuries, maybe I'll give them more credence. As of now I expect them to fall...probably back below .500 by the end of the season, honestly. As people here are saying, fourth place may be it for them. I don't see them having the depth to win the division.

I live in Pittsburgh and am trying to be gracious to their fans, which is not easy at times. So many years off from contending has made them overly starved/eager and, in many cases, a bit ignorant. At this point every time a routine fly ball is caught, the entire city climaxes. It's both charming and irritating.

Homer Bailey
07-20-2011, 04:33 PM
Pirates are a below average hitting team and a below average pitching team. I can't believe their success has lasted this long. Reds will finish above them in the standings.

kaldaniels
06-09-2012, 11:51 PM
It seems there may be some nervousness about the Pirates contending, but I still think it isn't their time quite yet. They are improved and some major talent is coming through the pipeline, but right now I don't think their success is sustainable.

This thread sure got quiet during their epic collapse last year...

Tom Servo
06-10-2012, 12:11 AM
Fun year for the Pirates. They have everything they need to make a run at the NL Central and easily will finish 5 ahead of the Reds no matter how things shake out. They're better constructed.
lol

WVRedsFan
06-10-2012, 01:31 AM
Do NOT take them lightly. They will be nipping at us all year. In the great philosophy of our own Walter, they has pitching which is all that matters. To heck with hitting. Seems to be a trend.

RedsManRick
06-10-2012, 01:47 AM
If the Pirates continue to be outscored by their opponents, they will not be in the race all year.

camisadelgolf
06-10-2012, 02:26 AM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=92235

Vottomatic
06-10-2012, 09:45 AM
And maybe no one else is sold on them either...

But they have gotten several mentions on here the past few weeks in regards to the fact that they are sneaking up on the Reds and the other NL Central leaders.

I just expect that they will fade away over the next month. Not to say that they are not much improved and are a team on the rise. Just saying I don't believe they are long term contenders this season.

I'm not sold on the Reds with their current roster. I think the Central is definitely up for grabs.

Pirates aren't great, but neither are the Reds.

traderumor
06-10-2012, 11:01 AM
I'm not sold on the Reds with their current roster. I think the Central is definitely up for grabs.

Pirates aren't great, but neither are the Reds.
But which team has better talent day to day that is likely sustainable? I'd guess if you HAD to make a wager instead of this hedge, you'd put your money on the Reds, regardless of fan loyalty.

Personally, my scoreboard watching is still on the Cards and Brewers because those are the only squads in our division that have a chance for a 85 + win season. And the Brewers are becoming less worrisome.

Vottomatic
06-10-2012, 11:20 AM
But which team has better talent day to day that is likely sustainable? I'd guess if you HAD to make a wager instead of this hedge, you'd put your money on the Reds, regardless of fan loyalty.

Personally, my scoreboard watching is still on the Cards and Brewers because those are the only squads in our division that have a chance for a 85 + win season. And the Brewers are becoming less worrisome.

I'd put my money on the Reds simply because a few guys are underachieving and very few are overachieving the career numbers.

But the roster and lineup construction is still a concern. The underachieving, if it continues, is a concern.

Managing, at times, is still a concern.

I am watching the Pirates, simply because they're in 2nd place and the Reds seem to struggle a bit against them for some odd reason.

_Sir_Charles_
06-10-2012, 01:09 PM
If the Pirates continue to be outscored by their opponents, they will not be in the race all year.

Since we moved into 1st place back on May 24th. The Pirates have gone 11-3 and have moved their run differential from -34 to -18. Personally, I don't take that lightly.

PuffyPig
06-10-2012, 01:51 PM
Since we moved into 1st place back on May 24th. The Pirates have gone 11-3 and have moved their run differential from -34 to -18. Personally, I don't take that lightly.


The Pirates are just as likely to go 3-11 in their next 14.

Brewers are more worrisome that the Pirates.

_Sir_Charles_
06-10-2012, 01:59 PM
The Pirates are just as likely to go 3-11 in their next 14.

Brewers are more worrisome that the Pirates.

If you say so. Agree to disagree.

*heads back to watching the Braves/Blue Jays game* Julio Teheran's MLB debut. Kid looks scary good.

westofyou
06-10-2012, 02:03 PM
The Pirates are just as likely to go 3-11 in their next 14.

Brewers are more worrisome that the Pirates.

The Pirates remind me of the Reds in 2006, they were 36-26 six years ago today. They even had a +26 run differential, they promptly went 9-16 in their next 25 games, with a -15 RD at the end of that run.

camisadelgolf
06-10-2012, 03:55 PM
If you say so. Agree to disagree.

*heads back to watching the Braves/Blue Jays game* Julio Teheran's MLB debut. Kid looks scary good.
Season debut. He pitched in five games for the Braves last season.

traderumor
06-10-2012, 04:00 PM
Since we moved into 1st place back on May 24th. The Pirates have gone 11-3 and have moved their run differential from -34 to -18. Personally, I don't take that lightly.Well, you kind of have to, don't you? Unless the losses were all blowouts. I'll take them seriously when they get at least three more hitters to go with McCutcheon. Until then, their lack of overall talent on the roster will catch up with them, either through injury or performance. They are looking like "Pyrite of the Year" team two years running.

Pyrite, Pirates....yea I see what I did there.

RedsManRick
06-10-2012, 04:35 PM
Since we moved into 1st place back on May 24th. The Pirates have gone 11-3 and have moved their run differential from -34 to -18. Personally, I don't take that lightly.

I personally don't read in to streaks with arbitrarily selected endpoints. THere's no reason to believe that their +16 over the last two weeks is a better indicator of the quality of the team than the -34 they put up over the prior 7 weeks.

cincrazy
06-10-2012, 04:35 PM
Regardless of whether they sustain it, the Pirates are a great story. They're clearly trending in the right direction, not to be taken lightly anymore. When a few more of their top prospects come up in the next year or two, they're going to be even tougher.

Tom Servo
06-10-2012, 04:52 PM
Regardless of whether they sustain it, the Pirates are a great story.
19 years of losing, followed by 60 games of outplaying pythag. I've heard better stories :dunno:


You make a good point though, they are getting better as a franchise in general. I just don't see any reason to anoint them the toast of baseball yet.

harangatang
06-10-2012, 05:05 PM
The Pirates are the only team in baseball not to score 200 runs on the season coming into today. They are 31st in BA, last in OBP, OPS, and OPS+, and 30th in SLG. The only player on their team with an OPS+ above 100 is Andrew McCutchen. If they are going to complete they have to improve their offense, regardless of their pitching.

Caveat Emperor
06-10-2012, 05:07 PM
The Pirates are going to finish 2012 with a losing record -- because that's what they do. Failure is hard-wired into the franchise's DNA.

The only thing the Reds (and, by extension, Reds fans) need to worry about regarding the Pirates is beating them -- because the Pirates aren't going to win the NL Central, but losses to them could be what prevents the Reds from doing so.

Chip R
06-10-2012, 05:23 PM
It would be nice to play the Pirates later in the season after they have done their fade.

Tony Cloninger
06-10-2012, 05:26 PM
It would be nice to play the Pirates later in the season after they have done their fade.

I find it ironic that the Reds have helped out in getting the Pirates record to what it is the last couple of years....just a little bit. ;)

Captain Hook
06-10-2012, 05:54 PM
The Pirates are going to finish 2012 with a losing record -- because that's what they do. Failure is hard-wired into the franchise's DNA.

The only thing the Reds (and, by extension, Reds fans) need to worry about regarding the Pirates is beating them -- because the Pirates aren't going to win the NL Central, but losses to them could be what prevents the Reds from doing so.

It wasn't so long ago that people said the same thing about the Reds.

kaldaniels
06-10-2012, 05:59 PM
It wasn't so long ago that people said the same thing about the Reds.

Of course. But do the 2012 Pirates have the talent of the 2010-2012 Reds?

BCubb2003
06-10-2012, 06:48 PM
I think it's hard to say "the Reds may have some problems but look, they're in first place; that's what matters," then turn around and say, "the Pirates may be be in second but they've got problems."

kaldaniels
06-10-2012, 07:35 PM
I think it's hard to say "the Reds may have some problems but look, they're in first place; that's what matters," then turn around and say, "the Pirates may be be in second but they've got problems."

The Reds are in first place, and their underlying numbers suggest they will be in contention at the end of the 162 game season.

The Pirates, not so much.

WVRedsFan
06-10-2012, 07:43 PM
After the Reds blew the home series against the Pirates, I predicted that the Pirates would be in first place by Sunday. A loss tonight and that will unfortunately come true. I remember scribes and blogs and Cardinal Nation were saying that the Reds wouldn't last until the end of the season. You can bet that this Pirate team will surprise just like the Reds did in 2010. Mark that one down.

kaldaniels
06-10-2012, 07:45 PM
After the Reds blew the home series against the Pirates, I predicted that the Pirates would be in first place by Sunday. A loss tonight and that will unfortunately come true. I remember scribes and blogs and Cardinal Nation were saying that the Reds wouldn't last until the end of the season. You can bet that this Pirate team will surprise just like the Reds did in 2010. Mark that one down.

They've improved, but keep in mind your prediction of wins for the 2011 Pirates, found earlier in this thread.

kaldaniels
06-10-2012, 07:49 PM
To be clear I am very concerned about the Pirates in 2014 or so, just not this year. Believe me I wouldn't mind Appel slipping thru their fingers. They could have a filthy rotation in a few years.

WVRedsFan
06-10-2012, 07:52 PM
They've improved, but keep in mind your prediction of wins for the 2011 Pirates, found earlier in this thread.

Yeah <blush>, but they never smelled first place and didn't have any pitching--just luck. Now they have the pitching to compete and a lucky horseshoe against their main competition--us.

Look, I hope I'm wrong, but I see it coming and I don't like it mainly because I have to spend next weekend in Pittsburgh at my in-laws. I'm thinking about faking a heart attack. Seriously. It won't be fun,

kaldaniels
06-10-2012, 07:52 PM
Yeah <blush>, but they never smelled first place and didn't have any pitching--just luck. Now they have the pitching to compete and a lucky horseshoe against their main competition--us.

Look, I hope I'm wrong, but I see it coming and I don't like it mainly because I have to spend next weekend in Pittsburgh at my in-laws. I'm thinking about faking a heart attack. Seriously,

Without looking I believe they were in first place in July.

Tom Servo
06-10-2012, 07:59 PM
Without looking I believe they were in first place in July.
Standings on July 19, 2011

http://i.imgur.com/LYwll.png

kaldaniels
06-10-2012, 08:00 PM
Thank you Tom. I feel like I'm stirring up trouble with all this but I'm just trying to put things in perspective.

DGullett35
06-10-2012, 08:06 PM
Im more scared of the brew crew than the Buccos. Brewers are playing decent baseball

Big Klu
06-10-2012, 08:23 PM
Beware hubris.

Benihana
06-10-2012, 09:54 PM
I'm not necessarily scared of the Pirates this year, but their future is looking pretty bright.

Vottomatic
06-11-2012, 07:04 AM
There sure are alot of prognosticators on this board.

Pirates tied for Reds in 1st place. Yet everyone criticizes the Pirates and applauds the Reds for their talent. Hmmm.

Might as well give Clint Hurdle the MOY right now. If the Pirates are so bad, then why are they tied for 1st? And if the Reds are so great, how did they let this happen?

Reds have problems. You might want to open your eyes.

westofyou
06-11-2012, 09:05 AM
There sure are alot of prognosticators on this board.

Pirates tied for Reds in 1st place. Yet everyone criticizes the Pirates and applauds the Reds for their talent. Hmmm.


The magic is in the pythag, but keep trying

Vottomatic
06-11-2012, 10:21 AM
The magic is in the pythag, but keep trying

Keep trying?

I think it's the Pirates that continue to try and succeed and the Reds that aren't playing up to expecations.

Reds Freak
06-11-2012, 10:24 AM
Keep trying?

I think it's the Pirates that continue to try and succeed and the Reds that aren't playing up to expecations.

The franchise that has 19 straight losing seasons is trying to succeed more than the Reds?

RedsManRick
06-11-2012, 10:46 AM
Keep trying?

I think it's the Pirates that continue to try and succeed and the Reds that aren't playing up to expecations.

And they'll continue to succeed -- until they don't anymore. Despite what I'm sure will be protestations to the contrary, 1-run games are basically a crap shoot. The Pirates are 17-10 in 1 run games. That is not likely to continue. Every single time this happens, somebody wants to make the argument that this time is different. This team is special. They aren't. The hitting has been a bit unlucky. The pitching has been a bit luck. But their Pythag is right in line with their talent level.

This was the exact same story as last year. Eventually, getting outscored equates to losing. The more games you play, the less likely it is that the cumulative lucky bounces continue to go your way. Sure, it's theoretically possible the luck will continue. And it's possible that the team plays better moving forward. But if the Pirates continue to score and allow runs like a 74 win team, the will not win the division. And if the Reds continue to play like an 85 win team, they'll be in the hunt, but unlikely to run away from anybody.

westofyou
06-11-2012, 11:10 AM
I believe we covered thus pythag thing here before (as far back 2004)?and still I haven't seen these magic beans that no one but the 87 Twins have found.

Beat the pythag, the pyrite of fandom

_Sir_Charles_
06-11-2012, 11:17 AM
Season debut. He pitched in five games for the Braves last season.

I didn't realize that. Regardless, he looks like he's going to be a beast.

Tom Servo
06-11-2012, 11:18 AM
Even if one is looking beyond the obvious pythag issues, the Reds last won the division in 2010. The Pirates in 1992. And you wonder why one would be inclined to think the Reds are more likely to succeed than the Pirates?

Vottomatic
06-11-2012, 11:23 AM
The franchise that has 19 straight losing seasons is trying to succeed more than the Reds?

Good job twisting my words around.

I never said the Reds didn't want to succeed. I only said they weren't playing up to expectations.

Reds are underachieving (according to most on this board).

Pirates are overachieving.

The question is: What if the Reds continue to underachieve and the Pirates continue to overachieve?

Oh yeah. It won't happen because.....uh.....oh......uh.......it just won't happen. :laugh: :p

_Sir_Charles_
06-11-2012, 11:31 AM
Good job twisting my words around.

I never said the Reds didn't want to succeed. I only said they weren't playing up to expectations.

Reds are underachieving (according to most on this board).

Pirates are overachieving.

The question is: What if the Reds continue to underachieve and the Pirates continue to overachieve?

Oh yeah. It won't happen because.....uh.....oh......uh.......it just won't happen. :laugh: :p

And my point in this is that I don't think the Pirates are "overachieving". I think they're still UNDER-achieving. Their pitching is legit. I haven't seen many argue that point otherwise. Burnett & Bedard have had some poor seasons of late, but they've both got a ton of talent. The rest of the staff is coming along and they've got 2 studs waiting in the wings. As good as our bullpen is...the Pirates are right there with us IMO. I don't think their pitching has been "lucky"...I think they're simply good.

The reason I say they're underachieving is their hitting. They've had 2 seasons in a row where their hitters have struggled mightily. They've got some bats over there that have some ability. But right now only McCutchen and Walker are playing well. If their batters come back to just their career norms, the team will improve. The hitters have been extremely unlucky IMO.

And to be clear, no...I don't think they win the division. I do think they'll end up in second place (behind us) and above .500 though.

OnBaseMachine
06-11-2012, 11:33 AM
I'm not sold on the Pirates, but I'm not sold on the Reds either. The Cardinals are still the favorites to win the division, IMO. The Reds just aren't a very good team as they are currently constructed. The starting pitching is inconsistent, and the offense is beyond frustrating to watch. The Reds have lost so many games this season because the offense couldn't take advantage of a great scoring opportunity. The Reds have to acquire someone to get on base in front of Votto or a big bat for cleanup, and another starting pitcher is needed too (Chapman? I know, it's never going to happen).

Tom Servo
06-11-2012, 11:43 AM
I'm not sold on the Pirates, but I'm not sold on the Reds either. The Cardinals are still the favorites to win the division, IMO. The Reds just aren't a very good team as they are currently constructed. The starting pitching is inconsistent, and the offense is beyond frustrating to watch. The Reds have lost so many games this season because the offense couldn't take advantage of a great scoring opportunity. The Reds have to acquire someone to get on base in front of Votto or a big bat for cleanup, and another starting pitcher is needed too (Chapman? I know, it's never going to happen).
Sadly agreed. I wouldn't be shocked to see the division come down to the Cardinals and Brewers.

westofyou
06-11-2012, 05:50 PM
From Grantland

Clint Barmes, Alex Presley, and Garrett Jones have combined for nine walks and 111 strikeouts this season. Such offensive sieves are killing the Pirates offense, which is averaging just 3.24 runs scored per game. Per ESPN Stats & Info, since the mound was lowered in 1969, no team has scored as few runs as the Pirates have and finished at or above .500. Since 1901, only five teams with that run production have topped .500; none of them had a winning percentage as high as the Pirates' current .542 mark.

fearofpopvol1
06-11-2012, 08:09 PM
I'm not sold on the Pirates either. Their pitching staff is ranked 20th in the majors in total WAR. In offense, they're ranked dead last. They're ranked 11th in fielding/UZR. This is not a playoff team.

However, like others, I'm not sold on the Reds either. I do believe the starters numbers will improve as the season goes on. The bullpen was due for some kind of correction. The question mark is the offense. The Reds desperately need a RH high OBP/power guy to bat 4th.

757690
06-11-2012, 08:36 PM
Beware hubris.

I guarantee that there was a "I'm not sold on the Reds" thread on Brewer and Cardinal message boards in 2010.

*BaseClogger*
06-11-2012, 08:43 PM
The Reds desperately need a RH high OBP/power guy to bat 4th.

The Reds desperately need another RH hitter?

kaldaniels
06-11-2012, 09:06 PM
No hubris from me. Just baseball history. Run differential drives W-L records. Also along the lines of history, we saw this movie last year. No arrogance intended, just rational thought. Did this team improve by 15 wins this offseason?

fearofpopvol1
06-11-2012, 09:32 PM
The Reds desperately need another RH hitter?

Yep, with high OBP skills and power.

PuffyPig
06-11-2012, 09:38 PM
I guarantee that there was a "I'm not sold on the Reds" thread on Brewer and Cardinal message boards in 2010.

So, that proves that every team that after going many years without a winning season starts quickly they will win the division?

Most of us are simply looking at the Pirate's team and not seeing a winner.

*BaseClogger*
06-11-2012, 09:57 PM
Yep, with high OBP skills and power.

But they already have the best OPS in the league against LH pitching?

757690
06-11-2012, 10:17 PM
So, that proves that every team that after going many years without a winning season starts quickly they will win the division?

Most of us are simply looking at the Pirate's team and not seeing a winner.

Doesn't prove a thing. But the Reds in 2010 didn't seem like a winner, until they were. No one could have predicted that they would gain 13 games in one season.

PuffyPig
06-11-2012, 10:45 PM
Doesn't prove a thing. But the Reds in 2010 didn't seem like a winner, until they were. No one could have predicted that they would gain 13 games in one season.

Actually the 2010 Reds looked like a very good team.

Chip R
06-11-2012, 11:12 PM
Keep trying?

I think it's the Pirates that continue to try and succeed and the Reds that aren't playing up to expecations.

What were the expectations?

Tom Servo
06-11-2012, 11:25 PM
What were the expectations?
59-0.

fearofpopvol1
06-11-2012, 11:39 PM
But they already have the best OPS in the league against LH pitching?

Surely you haven't forgotten who our manager is! OBP is still a problem for the Reds and no way Dusty would bat a LH power hitter in the 4th spot! Have you seen how many times opposing teams have walked Votto to face Phillips? They're not scared of him. If we plugged David Wright in the 4 hole? Look out!

757690
06-12-2012, 12:05 AM
Actually the 2010 Reds looked like a very good team.

Going into 2010, they didn't look any better than the 2012 Pirstes.

They needed Scott Rolen, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo and Arthur Rhodes to have much better than average years, and Drew Stubbs, Mike Leake, Travis Wood, amd Arodlis Chapman to have outstanding rookie seasons.

Going into 2010, they were a .500 club at best. They played above their heads, got some luck and won the division. Same thing could happen this year with the Pirates.

Tom Servo
06-12-2012, 12:23 AM
Going into 2010, they were a .500 club at best. They played above their heads, got some luck and won the division. Same thing could happen this year with the Pirates.
Scored 790 runs, Allowed 685 runs.
W-L: 91-71
Pythagorean W-L: 92-70

757690
06-12-2012, 12:32 AM
Scored 790 runs, Allowed 685 runs.
W-L: 91-71
Pythagorean W-L: 92-70

2009 Reds

W-L 78-84
Scored 673 runs, Allowed 723 runs.
Pythagorean W-L: 76-86

kaldaniels
06-12-2012, 12:40 AM
2009 Reds

W-L 78-84
Scored 673 runs, Allowed 723 runs.
Pythagorean W-L: 76-86

Notice how when you allow more runs than you score, you tend not to have a winning record. I will concede anything is possible, but can't you concede that until the Pirates score more than they allow, they probably won't be contenders after 162 games.

757690
06-12-2012, 12:47 AM
Notice how when you allow more runs than you score, you tend not to have a winning record. I will concede anything is possible, but can't you concede that until the Pirates score more than they allow, they probably won't be contenders after 162 games.

2007 Diamondbacks win 90 games despite scoring less runs than they allow (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2007.shtml)

Also, the Pythag at this point of the season can be misleading. One hot streak and the Pirates could have a winning Pythag.

kaldaniels
06-12-2012, 12:51 AM
2007 Diamondbacks win 90 games despite scoring less runs than they allow (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2007.shtml)

Also, the Pythag at this point of the season can be misleading. One hot streak and the Pirates could have a winning Pythag.

Of all the teams that have had a losing pythag, how many won ninety games?

How do those odds look?

The Operator
06-12-2012, 12:53 AM
2007 Diamondbacks win 90 games despite scoring less runs than they allow (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2007.shtml)

Also, the Pythag at this point of the season can be misleading. One hot streak and the Pirates could have a winning Pythag.Nobody is saying that The Pirates can't beat the odds and stay in it despite their current pythag.

But the numbers are what they are. Chances are, unless they start scoring more than they allow - they'll fade from the picture. Doesn't mean for sure it'll happen, but Pythag is generally more right than wrong.

757690
06-12-2012, 12:54 AM
Of all the teams that have had a losing pythag, how many won ninety games?

How do those odds look?

If I'm betting on the Pirates, do you really think I'm looking at the odds, or the facts ;)

*BaseClogger*
06-12-2012, 02:39 AM
Surely you haven't forgotten who our manager is! OBP is still a problem for the Reds and no way Dusty would bat a LH power hitter in the 4th spot! Have you seen how many times opposing teams have walked Votto to face Phillips? They're not scared of him. If we plugged David Wright in the 4 hole? Look out!

Yeah! Once we get David Wright, Joey Votto will get all kinds of pitches to hit! And with those hits he'll drive in... ;)

kaldaniels
06-14-2012, 09:22 PM
I'm just looking for an excuse to bump this thread. ;)

Chuck Morton out for the year with TJ surgery.

Tom Servo
06-14-2012, 09:27 PM
They did finally bump up over the 200 run threshold tonight.

Homer Bailey
06-14-2012, 09:42 PM
They're awful.

Sea Ray
06-14-2012, 09:46 PM
They're awful.

They sure look awful when they play in Baltimore. They're one inning away from being swept as they're down 6 runs to the O's. Why can't they look like that against us?

vaticanplum
06-14-2012, 10:18 PM
The reason I say they're underachieving is their hitting. They've had 2 seasons in a row where their hitters have struggled mightily. They've got some bats over there that have some ability. But right now only McCutchen and Walker are playing well. If their batters come back to just their career norms, the team will improve. The hitters have been extremely unlucky IMO.

Why have their hitters been unlucky? I'm not challenging for the sake of challenging; I genuinely want to know. Isn't two seasons of "struggling mightily" indicative of maybe...not hitting well? My take on the Pirates is that their offense isn't unlucky, it's just plain bad. Probably the easiest thing to fix, but like all long-bad teams tricking people into thinking they're doing well, I don't know that management will push that fast enough.

Since I think the offense is really bad, I've been trying to figure out whether their pitching is genuinely good or whether there's been a good dose of luck involved. I can't tell yet. One thing I do think is obvious is that they will lose the positive effect that Hanrahan has had before too long. In all fairness, he had a ridiculously good year last year, probably unrepeatable, but his K/BB ratio is slipping fast.

I think the Pirates have the makings of a good team as long as their offense is addressed. But I don't think it's their year. If they were the cardinals, I'd say watch out next year, no question, but I'm not totally sold on this management yet.

The Operator
06-14-2012, 10:24 PM
Obviously they aren't done after being swept by Baltimore but The Pirates appear to be what those who bow to Pythagoras thought they were. Given enough time, that crazy old math guy usually gets it right.

Until they start scoring more than they allow, I'd expect The Pirates to fade out of the race just like last season.

Vottomatic
06-15-2012, 09:29 AM
The Pirates are who we thought they were. And we let'em off the hook!

_Sir_Charles_
06-15-2012, 09:43 AM
Why have their hitters been unlucky? I'm not challenging for the sake of challenging; I genuinely want to know. Isn't two seasons of "struggling mightily" indicative of maybe...not hitting well? My take on the Pirates is that their offense isn't unlucky, it's just plain bad. Probably the easiest thing to fix, but like all long-bad teams tricking people into thinking they're doing well, I don't know that management will push that fast enough.

Since I think the offense is really bad, I've been trying to figure out whether their pitching is genuinely good or whether there's been a good dose of luck involved. I can't tell yet. One thing I do think is obvious is that they will lose the positive effect that Hanrahan has had before too long. In all fairness, he had a ridiculously good year last year, probably unrepeatable, but his K/BB ratio is slipping fast.

I think the Pirates have the makings of a good team as long as their offense is addressed. But I don't think it's their year. If they were the cardinals, I'd say watch out next year, no question, but I'm not totally sold on this management yet.

I'm not a big fan of BABIP, but you might want to take a gander at the Pirates hitters in that respect. I also think that Alvarez in particular is underachieving in a HUGE way. As is Barmes.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-15-2012, 10:00 AM
It'll be interesting to see what the pirates are able to do in Cleveland this weekend. And, along those lines, I'm not too thrilled about KC at STL the next three games.

westofyou
06-15-2012, 10:23 AM
I'm not a big fan of BABIP, but you might want to take a gander at the Pirates hitters in that respect. I also think that Alvarez in particular is underachieving in a HUGE way. As is Barmes.

You have to achieve for a sustained period of time before your performance can be deemed " underachieving"

RichRed
06-15-2012, 01:33 PM
You have to achieve for a sustained period of time before your performance can be deemed " underachieving"

Yeah, Barmes may not be quite .520-OPS-bad, but he's always been a wretched hitter, despite all those years in Coors Field.

_Sir_Charles_
06-15-2012, 03:04 PM
My only point guys was I think several of their hitters are more talented than their performance has shown. I think several of them should trend upwards steadily. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. I'm just a bit higher on them than most I guess.

Blitz Dorsey
06-15-2012, 03:48 PM
You have to achieve for a sustained period of time before your performance can be deemed " underachieving"

No, when you are the No. 2 overall pick of the draft, you can certainly "underachieve" prior to "achieving." Underachieving is based on expectations. Are you telling me if Anthony Davis has a horrible rookie season in the NBA (which he won't) that that wouldn't be considered "underachieving"?

Pedro Alvarez = Underachiever.

westofyou
06-15-2012, 04:07 PM
No, when you are the No. 2 overall pick of the draft, you can certainly "underachieve" prior to "achieving." Underachieving is based on expectations. Are you telling me if Anthony Davis has a horrible rookie season in the NBA (which he won't) that that wouldn't be considered "underachieving"?

Pedro Alvarez = Underachiever.

I don't follow basketball, do I can't tell you anything about AD

But I'll also note Basketball and Baseball talent is not a apples and apples comparison

I'll also note Alvarez is trending towards Brandon Larson country

vaticanplum
06-15-2012, 05:22 PM
Somewhere along the way Alvarez seems to have missed out on good hitting training. He's impatient and appears to be bad at identifying pitches. I've really never seen much indication otherwise. There's a difference between this and a lack of talent; poor training is fixable, but no one appears to be working on that right now. All he has is talent and that only takes you so far -- after a point, with bad training, it can actually become a detriment.

PuffyPig
06-15-2012, 05:48 PM
And, along those lines, I'm not too thrilled about KC at STL the next three games.

I don't know, the Cards have won two straight, and are usually tough at home.

You guys should be just fine this weekend.

Blitz Dorsey
06-15-2012, 07:45 PM
I don't know, the Cards have won two straight, and are usually tough at home.

You guys should be just fine this weekend.

"You guys?" Did you miss the "Reds Fan" part of his moniker? Ha. He means he thinks the Cards have it easy (per usual) getting to play the stinktastic Royals 6x per year.

*BaseClogger*
06-15-2012, 08:39 PM
"You guys?" Did you miss the "Reds Fan" part of his moniker? Ha. He means he thinks the Cards have it easy (per usual) getting to play the stinktastic Royals 6x per year.

Nothing gets past this guy!

Tom Servo
06-15-2012, 10:03 PM
I think it's the Pirates that continue to try and succeed and the Reds that aren't playing up to expecations.
Yeah, totally.

Brutus
06-15-2012, 10:12 PM
Doesn't prove a thing. But the Reds in 2010 didn't seem like a winner, until they were. No one could have predicted that they would gain 13 games in one season.

On this date in 2010, the Reds were at least +15 in runs. The Pirates are -33.

PuffyPig
06-15-2012, 11:04 PM
"You guys?" Did you miss the "Reds Fan" part of his moniker? Ha. He means he thinks the Cards have it easy (per usual) getting to play the stinktastic Royals 6x per year.

Really? I did not know that.

CrackerJack
06-16-2012, 12:29 AM
Nobody is saying that The Pirates can't beat the odds and stay in it despite their current pythag.

But the numbers are what they are. Chances are, unless they start scoring more than they allow - they'll fade from the picture. Doesn't mean for sure it'll happen, but Pythag is generally more right than wrong.

At 4 games back, cue Pirates' pythag fade starting to settle-in.

Then again, it's Willie Harris and Valdez time in Cincinnati right now.

Vottomatic
06-24-2012, 03:41 PM
I'm not sold on the Pie-rats either. D'oh! Don't look now!!! Oops.

Kc61
06-24-2012, 04:16 PM
Pirates lost so Reds stay in first place by a game despite the umpteenth tough loss by the Reds this week.

Vottomatic
06-24-2012, 04:17 PM
Pirates lost so Reds stay in first place by a game despite the umpteenth tough loss by the Reds this week.

Skip Bayless said the Pirates just don't want it enough.

cincrazy
06-24-2012, 04:19 PM
I think it's a pretty good sign we can lose five out of six and still be up on the Pirates (who simply don't have the hitting to hang around) and at least two up on the Cards, maybe three. Both of these teams had a great shot to pass us this week, and the Pirates couldn't quite get there, and the Cards continue to just be average.

WVRedsFan
06-24-2012, 04:25 PM
I think it's a pretty good sign we can lose five out of six and still be up on the Pirates (who simply don't have the hitting to hang around) and at least two up on the Cards, maybe three. Both of these teams had a great shot to pass us this week, and the Pirates couldn't quite get there, and the Cards continue to just be average.

The fact that they survived that is encouraging. I hope the west coast trip gives them a fresh outlook and better run production.

cincrazy
06-24-2012, 04:32 PM
The fact that they survived that is encouraging. I hope the west coast trip gives them a fresh outlook and better run production.

We're going to be just fine :). It's a long season. This week SUCKED. But we'll steady the ship.

corkedbat
06-24-2012, 04:34 PM
I'm definitely not sold on the Pirates, unfortunately, I'm not sold on the Reds either. This team needs fixes at leadoff, cleanup, the bench and closer.

cincrazy
06-24-2012, 04:37 PM
I'm definitely not sold on the Pirates, unfortunayely, I'm not sold on the Reds either. This team needs fixes at leadoff, cleanup, the bench and closer.

Most of the things we need fixed can be done so fairly cheaply. Look, we have our stud. Votto. We have our ace. Cueto. We have very, very good players at some key spots. We just need to shore up some of the edges of the roster. That can be done with smart moves. Now, if those moves aren't made, I'll be incredibly disappointed. But this team might look differently in September than it does now. Walt has a history of identifying needs, and pulling the trigger.

corkedbat
06-24-2012, 04:40 PM
Most of the things we need fixed can be done so fairly cheaply. Look, we have our stud. Votto. We have our ace. Cueto. We have very, very good players at some key spots. We just need to shore up some of the edges of the roster. That can be done with smart moves. Now, if those moves aren't made, I'll be incredibly disappointed. But this team might look differently in September than it does now. Walt has a history of identifying needs, and pulling the trigger.

I agree to an extent. The closer can be fixed in-house and the bench can be somewhat shore-up by finding a cleanup-hitting LF and making Heisey the 4th OF he is. Dealing Stubbs for a CF who can defend and geton base at a ,350 clip would take care of the leadoff issue, but probably is a lot easier said than done.

Tony Cloninger
06-25-2012, 10:20 AM
Most of the things we need fixed can be done so fairly cheaply. Look, we have our stud. Votto. We have our ace. Cueto. We have very, very good players at some key spots. We just need to shore up some of the edges of the roster. That can be done with smart moves. Now, if those moves aren't made, I'll be incredibly disappointed. But this team might look differently in September than it does now. Walt has a history of identifying needs, and pulling the trigger.

I'm not sold on this manager knowing what to do anyways. 70 games in and it's still the same people batting 1st and 2nd beacuse of the position they happenplay...... I think by now you would think BP back to 1st and a having Bruce hit 4th vs RHP and then either Ludwick, Frazier or even Rolen bat 4th against LHP...type of adjustment would be made.

His blase comments rub me the wrong way sometimes. The "Hardly anyone runs away with the division" is almost an excuse to just take it easy.
Yes...it's a long season but acting like you can coast against the AL version of the Pirates (Indians) and Cubs (Twins) will come back and haunt you.

Johnny Footstool
06-25-2012, 10:25 AM
The Cardinals are a much bigger and more realistic threat than the Pirates.

_Sir_Charles_
06-25-2012, 10:31 AM
The Cardinals are a much bigger and more realistic threat than the Pirates.

Just out of curiosity...how long do the Pirates have to stay in front of the Cardinals for this to be untrue? Seriously asking. (I'm not saying you're wrong btw)

Tony Cloninger
06-25-2012, 10:35 AM
Just out of curiosity...how long do the Pirates have to stay in front of the Cardinals for this to be untrue? Seriously asking. (I'm not saying you're wrong btw)

I would say most here will not buy them.....until they do what the Reds did in 2010 or Arizona last year. If they do that....then they can be taken seriously for a year or 2.

cumberlandreds
06-25-2012, 10:42 AM
Just out of curiosity...how long do the Pirates have to stay in front of the Cardinals for this to be untrue? Seriously asking. (I'm not saying you're wrong btw)

The Cards have the pedigree. The Pirates obviously do not. I think the Cards will be the biggest threat in the division to the Reds. In fact,hope I'm wrong, I think they will end up winning it.

OesterPoster
06-25-2012, 10:49 AM
Pirates have to play the Cards 9 more times yet, with 6 of those in St. Louis.
Pirates also have the Reds 9 more times, with 6 of those in Cinci.

I'd say their season hinges on those 18 games.

Big Klu
06-25-2012, 10:56 AM
Just out of curiosity...how long do the Pirates have to stay in front of the Cardinals for this to be untrue? Seriously asking. (I'm not saying you're wrong btw)

Based on what I've read here, I would say October 3.

Beware hubris.

Johnny Footstool
06-25-2012, 12:01 PM
Beware hubris.

Do you really think the fans need to beware hubris? I can't see any real impact if the fans don't recognize the Pirates as true contenders.

traderumor
06-25-2012, 12:21 PM
Do you really think the fans need to beware hubris? I can't see any real impact if the fans don't recognize the Pirates as true contenders.I hear this thread is being printed off and hung on the Pirates bulletin board. They take it down weekly and each player takes a whack at the prior week's print out with their bats before they burn it in effigy in front of home plate during batting practice.

Big Klu
06-25-2012, 12:21 PM
I suppose not. Fans can do what they like, I guess. But I don't like arrogance, especially when it comes from fans of the same team I support. It reminds me of all the Cubs/Cardinals/Phillies fans I've had to endure.

traderumor
06-25-2012, 01:04 PM
I suppose not. Fans can do what they like, I guess. But I don't like arrogance, especially when it comes from fans of the same team I support. It reminds me of all the Cubs/Cardinals/Phillies fans I've had to endure.I don't consider it arrogant to think that the Pittsuburgh Pirates are not deep enough to make a serious run at the playoffs. They may prove me wrong, but I don't know what is arrogant about evaluating another team as not being a serious contender for legitimate reasons. I do not think the Pirates can sustain an above .500 record. Their pitching will tail off, their defense is not good, and their hitting is below average. Is that arrogant?

The Operator
06-25-2012, 01:07 PM
I suppose not. Fans can do what they like, I guess. But I don't like arrogance, especially when it comes from fans of the same team I support. It reminds me of all the Cubs/Cardinals/Phillies fans I've had to endure.I don't think there's any arrogance going here though. It's just that quite a few people aren't worried yet about The Pirates because they are still scoring less than they allow.

Two things could happen. They could increase their run scoring by quite a bit, or they could be a team that beats the Pythag. But very few teams ever beat the Pythag by very much over the course of a full season. It has happened, but it's extremely rare. So while I wouldn't discount the Pirates entirely, I would need to see them start turning around their run differential before I really consider them a threat to remain for the whole season.

Tom Servo
06-25-2012, 01:36 PM
I don't consider it arrogance as much as it is history. Look at the Pirates last year. First place in late July, lots of hype by some here on Redszone, and then a total collapse. I don't think they're that much better this year.

kaldaniels
06-25-2012, 02:12 PM
Beware hubris.

Sure.

But also beware not utilizing 100 years of baseball history to accurately project your likely end of year rivals.

bucksfan2
06-25-2012, 02:25 PM
I don't consider it arrogance as much as it is history. Look at the Pirates last year. First place in late July, lots of hype by some here on Redszone, and then a total collapse. I don't think they're that much better this year.

I am not sold on the current version of the Pirates. If there were to make a couplef of good moves then I think they would be in the conversation. They can't make a Ryan Ludwick type move, it would have to be a substantial move that greatly improves the club. The team as its constructed right now I see as a 80 win team. Unless they add some above average major league bats I think they will end the season right around that 80 win mark.

oneupper
06-25-2012, 02:48 PM
The Pirates winning the division would be something that made MLB brass happy. They LOVE this kind of story. And it would be a gotcha "see small market teams have opportunities" thing. That makes me wary.

And looking at the teams, I don't see how the REDS are THAT superior to the Pirates. IF they add a bat or two at the deadline, its even closer.
The whole division is weak and it might come down to who does a better job of beating up on the Astros and Cubs.
I'm not counting out the Brewers either.

paulrichjr
06-30-2012, 04:56 PM
I wish someone would let the Pirates know that they are going to fade. They are starting to get a little scary.

kaldaniels
06-30-2012, 05:13 PM
Cardinals are the team to fear in my opinion still

Position Players:
Cards 17 WAR
Reds 12
Pirates 7

Pitching
Reds 8
Cardinals 7
Pirates 6

Run Differential (off the top of my head from last night/today)
Cards 60
Reds 30
Pirates 7

Stuff like the above is the best predictor of what will happen in the future. Win totals, not so much.

I hope the Pirates get the sweep tommorrow.

Brutus
06-30-2012, 06:35 PM
I think the Cards have a more talented roster, obviously, but I'm starting to believe in the Pirates. I'm not sure they have the offense to pull this out, but their pitching seems to be good enough to keep them in the race, and the offense is doing just enough to help.

_Sir_Charles_
06-30-2012, 06:57 PM
I think the Cards have a more talented roster, obviously, but I'm starting to believe in the Pirates. I'm not sure they have the offense to pull this out, but their pitching seems to be good enough to keep them in the race, and the offense is doing just enough to help.

The Pirates are mimicking the Reds. McCutchen left the game in the 7th with a wrist injury. If serious it really kills their offense.

Tom Servo
06-30-2012, 06:59 PM
I still need to see how the Buccos fair in the dog days of Summer.

PuffyPig
06-30-2012, 07:35 PM
I think the Cards have a more talented roster, obviously, but I'm starting to believe in the Pirates. I'm not sure they have the offense to pull this out, but their pitching seems to be good enough to keep them in the race, and the offense is doing just enough to help.

I agree, the Pirates are better than I thought. I doubt they keep it up, but they will linger for sure.

redsmetz
07-02-2012, 08:52 AM
I've been among those who have argued that we can't dismiss the Pirates out of hand. Folks may well be right that they'll fade; history alone suggests that. Then again each squad annually is different.

The weekend series between the Pirates and the Cards, frankly played out as I had hoped, particularly given that we didn't win yesterday. While the Pirates are in second and it's always good to put added room between yourself and that next team down, I wanted to add to our lead on the Cardinals. But yesterday, given that we were 3 1/2 up on the Redbirds, I then wanted them to win yesterday so no matter what we did, we'd still be on top.

I hate to see us lose games like yesterday, particularly in the manner we did (and I'm guessing Ludwick and Bruce would probably agree). Now I'd like to see us finish up to the break with a good streak of games.

Ultimately I think it will still be us and the Cardinals. But those Pirates are proving to be pesky probably just how we were in 2010.

RedlegJake
07-02-2012, 02:22 PM
Pitching is the name of the game, as long as the Pirates pitching continues to be very good they will stay in the race. Also, their offense is underrated - they are hitting home runs and in some ways their offense resembles the Reds - lots of jacks but few men on base. They just set a team record for homers in a month and the Pirates have had some pretty powerful offenses in the past so it's not as if their offense is completely inept. I think they are being completely undersold.

Sea Ray
07-02-2012, 03:09 PM
This race is not up to the Pirates or the Cardinals. It's up to the Reds to take it. If they make the moves they need to then they'll win it. If not then they'll continue to muddle around .500 and give another team a chance to sneak ahead. Put another way, the argument can be made that our Reds are underachieving whereas the Pirates are getting the absolute most out of their talent.

Caveat Emperor
07-02-2012, 08:43 PM
I wish someone would let the Pirates know that they are going to fade. They are starting to get a little scary.

They're the Pirates. Failure is second nature to the franchise. They don't need to be told to fail -- they do it without thinking.

_Sir_Charles_
07-02-2012, 09:06 PM
2 more HR's today. Back to back again. 5th time this year they've done that. Up 8-2 on the Astros.

Last 4 games. 19 hits, 8 hits, 12 hits, 18 so far tonight.

Hoosier Red
07-03-2012, 09:37 AM
They're starting to worry me. Still think the pitching will regress to the mean a bit, as will the hitting.(I doubt they'll lead the league in runs for another month.) But they strike me as a team that both has the resources and the most to gain from obtaining one or two big pieces at the trade deadline.

smith288
07-03-2012, 09:46 AM
2011
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 47 43 354 346 .522
Second Half 25 47 256 366 .347

Nothing new to suggest this history won't be repeated this year in my opinion.

vaticanplum
07-03-2012, 12:11 PM
Looking at the rest of the season, if the Pirates want to compete, they're going to have to keep it together on the road. The Reds and Cards are currently over .500 both at home and on the road. The Pirates, as usual, are notably better at home than on the road, with an unbelievable 24-13 record for the former and a subpar 19-23 away. They spend an awful lot of August at home and an awful lot of September on the road. Which makes me think they'll "compete" pretty deep into the season and then lose it right at the end.

Interesting to note that the Astros are a surprising 23-19 at home (they are 9-29 on the road). After the ASB, the Buccos play the Astros six times in Houston and three in Pittsburgh. The Cards and astros are reversed: six games in St. Louis and three in Houston. The Reds play at Houston six more times, no more in Cincy, so that sucks. I still think the Cards will pull ahead of the Pirates pretty handily. The Buccos won't finish higher than third.

oregonred
07-03-2012, 12:15 PM
It is a mashup but the Pirates are leaders for the NL WC and are tied for the Reds with the best pen ERA at 2.71. They are getting better but have been great in 1-run games and extras. Also they are the MLB leaders in save percentage at 87%. So regressing back to the mean in all those categories should be expected although Hanrahan is a terrific closer. Reds have blown 9 saves in 30 tries while the Bucs have only blown 4 saves in 30 tries. We've flat out given away 3-4 games in the last month while the Pirates have maximized nearly every opportunity.

This will be the year the Pirates break the 20-year losing streak. Whether they are an 82, 85 or 90 win team depends on some continued good fortune and a deadline deal or two (and they are in a good position on that front if desired).

vaticanplum
07-03-2012, 12:24 PM
It is a mashup but the Pirates are leaders for the NL WC and are tied for the Reds with the best pen ERA at 2.71. They are getting better but have been great in 1-run games and extras. Also they are the MLB leaders in save percentage at 87%. So regressing back to the mean in all those categories should be expected although Hanrahan is a terrific closer. Reds have blown 9 saves in 30 tries while the Bucs have only blown 4 saves in 30 tries. We've flat out given away 3-4 games in the last month while the Pirates have maximized nearly every opportunity.

I actually think Hanrahan is due for a crash. His K/BB rate has dropped dramatically and his walk rate has more than doubled since last year. For whatever reason he's been lucky.

OesterPoster
07-03-2012, 12:28 PM
Dang...hasn't Tabata single-handily won a couple Pirates games against the Reds this year with his defense?

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick
#Pirates call up Gorkys Hernandez and option Jose Tabata to Indy. He's been a big disappointment.

oregonred
07-03-2012, 12:29 PM
I actually think Hanrahan is due for a crash. His K/BB rate has dropped dramatically and his walk rate has more than doubled since last year. For whatever reason he's been lucky.

I hope you are right, but the Pirates have been lights out in close games and save opportunities this season. If we assume the Pirates 87% save percentage moves closer to the NL average of 69% (Reds are only at 70%) then it works the other way for St Louis who are at rock bottom at 57%.

2012 Saves/Save Opptys:

Pirates 26/30
Reds 21/30
St Louis 17/30

vaticanplum
07-03-2012, 12:33 PM
I hope you are right, but the Pirates have been lights out in close games and save opportunities this season. If we assume the Pirates 87% save percentage moves closer to the NL average of 69% (Reds are only at 70%) then it works the other way for St Louis who are at rock bottom at 57%.

2012 Saves/Save Opptys:

Pirates 26/30
Reds 21/30
St Louis 17/30

Yes but how about THIS airtight evidence: Hanrahan is on my fantasy team. And my fantasy team is a notorious tease.

oregonred
07-03-2012, 12:37 PM
Yes but how about THIS airtight evidence: Hanrahan is on my fantasy team. And my fantasy team is a notorious tease.

Good plan. Works for me.

Playadlc
07-03-2012, 01:21 PM
Dang...hasn't Tabata single-handily won a couple Pirates games against the Reds this year with his defense?

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick
#Pirates call up Gorkys Hernandez and option Jose Tabata to Indy. He's been a big disappointment.

Why didn't they call up Starling Marte?

SidneySlicker
07-04-2012, 07:20 PM
Well the Pirates continue to roll and I think its pretty clear they aren't going away. They stack
up with the Reds very favorably from top to bottom in my opinion. Should be an interesting second half of the season.

TOBTTReds
07-04-2012, 07:51 PM
Why didn't they call up Starling Marte?

I don't know. But in response to Tabata's D, Gorkys is an elite defender. If it's ever Cutch, Gorkys, Marte in one OF, it may be the best OF seen in a LONG time.

Vottomatic
07-05-2012, 07:51 AM
Are you talking about those first place Pirates? :eek:

smith288
07-05-2012, 10:51 AM
Are you talking about those first place Pirates? :eek:
To be fair to the Reds. They are on a west coast swing and the Pirates are playing the astros. The Reds play the Padres so lets hope the hitting wakes up and gets a little run going.

The Operator
07-05-2012, 12:25 PM
The Pirates were in first place as late as July 25th last season. While I will admit they shouldn't be overlooked, it's not time to panic about them just yet.

As Mick Jagger once said, tiiiiiiime is on our side. Yes it is.

LoganBuck
07-05-2012, 01:00 PM
Good grief, their schedule this month is soft. They get the Giants this weekend, and then no one over .500 until they play the Reds the first week in August.

oregonred
07-05-2012, 01:05 PM
Pirates have an unbelieveable and unsustainable 2.43 home ERA. 26-13 record at home. (Reds are 3.56 with a 23-16)

The road ERA is 4.65 which should regress down as the year goes along (The Reds road ERA is a superb 3.37, yet only 21-21 on the season which may come back to bit us in the butt...).

The Reds staff is good both home and away - the stats are amazingly consistent.

The Pirates are Bob-Gibson ERA like at home and a half run below league average on the road. The BAA at home is .218 despite below league average 2.48 K/BB (12th) and 6.79 K/9IP (dead last) ratios -- a 145 DIPS ERA. Reds are superb with a 3.18 K/BB (2nd) and 7.93 K/9IP (6th) at home.

I think that bodes much better for the Reds going forward athough I consider the Pirates very legit as a divisional threat.

Johnny Footstool
07-05-2012, 01:58 PM
The Pirates are the only NL Central team with a winning record (19-14) in 1-run games. They have the second-best winning percentage in the NL in 1-run games.

Kc61
07-05-2012, 03:11 PM
Pirates have an unbelieveable and unsustainable 2.43 home ERA. 26-13 record at home. (Reds are 3.56 with a 23-16)

The road ERA is 4.65 which should regress down as the year goes along (The Reds road ERA is a superb 3.37, yet only 21-21 on the season which may come back to bit us in the butt...).

The Reds staff is good both home and away - the stats are amazingly consistent.

The Pirates are Bob-Gibson ERA like at home and a half run below league average on the road. The BAA at home is .218 despite below league average 2.48 K/BB (12th) and 6.79 K/9IP (dead last) ratios -- a 145 DIPS ERA. Reds are superb with a 3.18 K/BB (2nd) and 7.93 K/9IP (6th) at home.

I think that bodes much better for the Reds going forward athough I consider the Pirates very legit as a divisional threat.

You pre-empted me with this fine post.

If you look at the overall numbers, the Reds are a better hitting, pitching and fielding team than the Pirates. Reds lead overall in all three departments.

As a number of posters have noted, there is a big difference in one-run games in favor of the Bucs.

But, as you indicate, the Bucs have had more of a home field advantage based on their 2.43 ERA at home.

The Reds home OPS on offense is .786, the Pirates only .672. But on the mound, the Pirates home edge is 2.43 ERA v. Reds' home ERA of 3.56.

Bucs have already finished most of their west coast games, although they do have a lot of road games in the weeks after the break and they do go to San Diego in August. In August, the Bucs play four at home against each of the Dodgers and DBacks and have home and home series with the Cards. Reds have nine games left with the Bucs, six in Cincy.

It would seem that the Bucs pitching at home and their success in one-run games has given them their boost. Let's see if those two areas normalize for them.

Vottomatic
07-05-2012, 04:19 PM
If you look at the overall numbers, the Reds are a better hitting, pitching and fielding team than the Pirates. Reds lead overall in all three departments.



That must be why Dusty is on the hot seat. :eek:

I wonder if Walt is going to try and trade for Clint Hurdle?

westofyou
07-05-2012, 05:09 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17583


The Pirates are 23rd among the 30 major-league clubs in scoring with a 3.95 runs a game average. Center fielder Andrew McCutchen is spearheading the attack with a .356 TAv.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/07/03/midseason-awards-cano-votto/index.html#ixzz1zmiFysNW


No Pirates team has hit worse than this one (.241) since the 1952 outfit that lost 112 games, and yet halfway through the season Pittsburgh is a legitimate contender.

RedlegJake
07-05-2012, 05:48 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17583



http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/07/03/midseason-awards-cano-votto/index.html#ixzz1zmiFysNW



I think its because they are getting some flash power at the right moments, almost incredibly lucky moments, and their relief pitching is so good they only have to be tied or close to have a legitimate shot late in the game. Their June power was record setting and for the Pirates of the Lumber Company fame that tells you they were pretty hot with the long ball.

The Operator
07-05-2012, 05:50 PM
I think its because they are getting some flash power at the right moments, almost incredibly lucky moments, and their relief pitching is so good they only have to be tied or close to have a legitimate shot late in the game. Their June power was record setting and for the Pirates of the Lumber Company fame that tells you they were pretty hot with the long ball.All of which tells me their June surge is completely unsustainable. But we will see, I'm not completely counting them out.

RedlegJake
07-05-2012, 06:02 PM
All of which tells me their June surge is completely unsustainable. But we will see, I'm not completely counting them out.

I think so, too. Especially the power numbers - outside McCutcheon they really don't have legitimate power hitters (well the kid on third if he's gotten his swing fixed which I doubt) - its kinda spread out among all their hitters. I don't see that continuing. But, and I forget who said it, Stengel maybe?

"Pitching don't slump"

oregonred
07-05-2012, 09:13 PM
Guess that 2.43 home ERA might actually go down to the mid 2.3's tonight. Man they are on a roll right now channeling their inner Steelers or something...

reds44
07-05-2012, 09:15 PM
Jeff Karstens is pitching a shutout. There is no chance this continues. Wait it out.

redsfaninbsg
07-05-2012, 09:30 PM
The Astros are horrible. Hanrahan couldn't find the plate, walked two, threw a wild pitch, and still got out of it without damage

oregonred
07-05-2012, 09:33 PM
21,386 in Pittsburgh tonight. Best run in twenty years and that's it on a Thursday night of a holiday week.

mbgrayson
07-05-2012, 10:30 PM
21,386 in Pittsburgh tonight. Best run in twenty years and that's it on a Thursday night of a holiday week.

I don't think 21 K is bad at all for a week night against a AAA team...

Chip R
07-05-2012, 10:49 PM
21,386 in Pittsburgh tonight. Best run in twenty years and that's it on a Thursday night of a holiday week.

That's pretty good for them.

cincrazy
07-05-2012, 10:52 PM
Our attendance was pretty similar, if not worse, in 2010. The night we clinched the division, I was in attendance, and saw damn near more empty seats than butts.

traderumor
07-08-2012, 07:51 PM
I think there is a little pride/psychological thing about being in first place, and especially being behind the Pirates at the break. But when you consider that the Pirates have played over the head for about a month now and have all of a one game lead over the Reds at the AS Break, you have got to consider the reality.

One of the teams is playing at an unsustainable pace, another team has been consistent and steady, solid in all facets of the game. We're one game out when all this dust has settled. I can live with that, considering we're still 1-1/2 game up on our real threat, the Cardinals. Give the Pirates credit, they've been playing great ball, but there is no way that team, as currently constructed, is going to make it through the dog days. The offense is still below average, maybe not as bad as they were the first two months, but still not a whole lot of threats beyond Andrew McCutcheon.

If there is one team that ought to be most sorry to see the AS Break come, its Pittsburgh. This kind of break with the way they have been playing couldn't have come at a worst time.

Vottomatic
07-08-2012, 07:55 PM
If they weren't competing against the Reds in the Central, I'd probably get behind the Pirates. One of those feel good stories.

WVRedsFan
07-08-2012, 09:41 PM
Only problem here is while we were going 6-5 on the left coast, Pittsburgh was going 9-2, gaining 3 games on the Reds. Will it continue? I can't Tell you, but I do know that they've been pretty good lately scoring runs to go with their pitching.

Caveat Emperor
07-09-2012, 12:32 AM
Still not worried.

Losing is in the DNA of that franchise. They'll find a way to mess this up.

WVPacman
07-09-2012, 12:36 AM
Only problem here is while we were going 6-5 on the left coast, Pittsburgh was going 9-2, gaining 3 games on the Reds. Will it continue? I can't Tell you, but I do know that they've been pretty good lately scoring runs to go with their pitching.

Plus their next four series are againist teams with losing records.

camisadelgolf
07-09-2012, 12:50 AM
Still not worried.

Losing is in the DNA of that franchise. They'll find a way to mess this up.
I'm pretty sure there were plenty of people saying that about the Reds in 2010. Still, I don't think the Pirates have the horses to win this year. With a good off-season, I could see them being a legitimate force next year. Until then, the Pirates are playing over their heads, and I expect them to fade out just like they did last year. However, the drop won't be as extreme this year.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2012, 03:42 AM
Have you noticed that the more people have said they don't worry about the Pirates, the more ground they've gained on the Reds?

GAC
07-09-2012, 04:27 AM
Last year, on July 9th, the Pirates were 1 game back of the Cards. By the end of July they were still holding their own (3.5 back). But the slide began on 7/29 and proceeded through August. They lost 10 in a row, and went 8-25 through August to finish the month 18.5 games back.

But not only is this not the same Pirates team this year as last (there have been some personnel changes... adding A.J. has been huge, and the BP is solid), but the opposition that was beating up on them last year, such as the Milwaukee and SD, are weaker. And I think the Cards, while still a good team, are also obviously weaker.

So is it any surprise that two teams - Reds and Pirates - who have made some decent off-season additions (improvements}... while the Brewers and Cards have suffered subtractions... are where they are in the standings?

Let the games begin! :thumbup:

lidspinner
07-09-2012, 07:48 AM
If you were to make a model for just this year and look at it with fairness, you would all be very afraid of the Pirates...they have pitching, their offense is mediocre but thats all it has to be when your pitching is above average....they have some great talent in the minors to deal away for a few pieces at the deadline if needed....and if they do make a deal or 2 then I think they are the team to beat....If they sit tight and dont do a thing then I think they end up fighting it out for a wildcard spot....and if they do that then anything can happen when you have good pitching....

I am not saying they are better than the Reds or Cards, but I am saying they are in GREAT position to do what they want and compete for the next few years....If they can get a player to protect and help AM, then they will fight it out and possible be the team to beat in the central if the pitching can hold up like they have been. If they were not in the central I would be rooting for them.

bucksfan2
07-09-2012, 08:50 AM
If you were to make a model for just this year and look at it with fairness, you would all be very afraid of the Pirates...they have pitching, their offense is mediocre but thats all it has to be when your pitching is above average....they have some great talent in the minors to deal away for a few pieces at the deadline if needed....and if they do make a deal or 2 then I think they are the team to beat....If they sit tight and dont do a thing then I think they end up fighting it out for a wildcard spot....and if they do that then anything can happen when you have good pitching....

I am not saying they are better than the Reds or Cards, but I am saying they are in GREAT position to do what they want and compete for the next few years....If they can get a player to protect and help AM, then they will fight it out and possible be the team to beat in the central if the pitching can hold up like they have been. If they were not in the central I would be rooting for them.

Can the likes of McDonald and Burnett continue to pitch the way they have? A lot of their current run has to do with pitchers pitching better than they ever have in their career. Their offense to me has McClutchen and then a bunch of other guys, not bad players just nothing to get excited about. They have thrived in one run games due to a very good bullpen. The question I have is the current pitching staff able to maintain being the NL Best?

If the Pirates make a move it has to be a splash in order to contend. Last season they tried to do it on the bargain rack and ended up with guys like Ludwick and Lee. The problem I see is for the most part they will need to pay for a rental and most of the big spash deals happen in the off season. A Justin Upton deal would make that team much better and the Pirates have the pieces, but those deals don't usually happen in July.

Chip R
07-09-2012, 08:57 AM
The All Star break couldn't come at a worse time for the Bucs. They have all that momentum going and now they have to take 3 days off.

traderumor
07-09-2012, 09:18 AM
I'm pretty sure there were plenty of people saying that about the Reds in 2010. Still, I don't think the Pirates have the horses to win this year. With a good off-season, I could see them being a legitimate force next year. Until then, the Pirates are playing over their heads, and I expect them to fade out just like they did last year. However, the drop won't be as extreme this year.I keep on seeing this, and I'm not sure why. When this thread began, it was operating under the Pirates having a serious negative run differential for the first two months of the year and a pitiful offense. Their actual record is still slightly over their pythag. However, the Reds of 2010 were ranked top in the league offensively for most of the year, were neck and neck with the Cards from May on, and had a solid bullpen from the get go. They simply had a stronger roster than the Pirates currently have. The Pirates have no depth, which is usually where the dog days start to show up.

With all that said, the Pirates could hang in there longer than anyone expected, but does anyone seriously see them winning at least 90 games, which is what it will most likely take for them to win the division or get that last playoff spot? It is hard to see how without adding at least two legit bats to that lineup. I ain't buying the current week of scoring runs as their norm. And apparently they just lost Magahee.


Have you noticed that the more people have said they don't worry about the Pirates, the more ground they've gained on the Reds?So you've entirely missed the point that the discussion is on whether the Pirates can seriously contend for the division title over the entire season?

cumberlandreds
07-09-2012, 09:24 AM
The All Star break couldn't come at a worse time for the Bucs. They have all that momentum going and now they have to take 3 days off.

Also, Andrew McCutcheon, their hottest hitter is participating in the home run derby. It seems in the past most of the guys that compete in this mess up their swings for a long time and spend the 2nd half of the season trying to get it back in order. We'll see if that happens to McCutcheon.

RedsManRick
07-09-2012, 09:48 AM
Looking at the Pirates roster, I don't see a single player underperforming expectations save perhaps for Garret Jones. They're basically having their "if everything goes right" season. Meanwhile, we're having a healthy mix of good a bad. Trust the law of large numbers. At the end of the season, I'd be more surprised to see the Pirates in first place than I would the Brewers.

Somehow, their team ERA is half a run lower than their FIP. They have a very good team DER, but a league average UZR. Obviously it could just be noise int he data, but it also suggests that their pitchers have essentially just gotten lucky -- with the opponents hitting the ball at their defenders, who then make the easy plays. Time will tell, but I don't see them holding up.

vaticanplum
07-10-2012, 10:11 PM
Looking at the Pirates roster, I don't see a single player underperforming expectations save perhaps for Garret Jones. They're basically having their "if everything goes right" season. Meanwhile, we're having a healthy mix of good a bad. Trust the law of large numbers. At the end of the season, I'd be more surprised to see the Pirates in first place than I would the Brewers.

Somehow, their team ERA is half a run lower than their FIP. They have a very good team DER, but a league average UZR. Obviously it could just be noise int he data, but it also suggests that their pitchers have essentially just gotten lucky -- with the opponents hitting the ball at their defenders, who then make the easy plays. Time will tell, but I don't see them holding up.

Do you know who has no interest in hearing facts, these or any other? Pirates fans.

I hate raining on the parade of people who are enjoying a team doing well (do I?), but I also hate an attitude of blind adulation with no knowledge or regard for other teams. The primary topic of conversation on sports talk radio the other day was why the Washington Nationals stand no chance against the Pirates...in a playoff series. Why do I keep living in cities that house rival teams to my own? Why? Eventually you guys are going to have to come rescue me.

WVRedsFan
07-10-2012, 10:45 PM
Do you know who has no interest in hearing facts, these or any other? Pirates fans.

I hate raining on the parade of people who are enjoying a team doing well (do I?), but I also hate an attitude of blind adulation with no knowledge or regard for other teams. The primary topic of conversation on sports talk radio the other day was why the Washington Nationals stand no chance against the Pirates...in a playoff series. Why do I keep living in cities that house rival teams to my own? Why? Eventually you guys are going to have to come rescue me.

A little history here. In 1980, I married a Pittsburgh girl, actually from Penn Hills. We've been married for 32 years. During that time I've discovered two things about sports fans in that area. 1. They have no interest in the games of baseball, football, or hockey except the Pirates, Steelers, and Penguins. They're not knowledgeable about sports at all, but they hold the fate of their own self worth with whether those teams win or not. 2. If the team does not win, they are bums and not worth watching. As long as their team is a winner, they are unbeatable and the greatest thing on earth. If they are not doing well, who cares about baseball (or football or hockey). And they ignore it.

Are there life long Bucs fans who follow their team through each game? Very few. Witness the Pitt basketball team that was so successful over the past few years. This year they weren't very good. And now they are bums. My in-laws all of a sudden hated college basketball.

Luckily, my wife is a good girl and only kids me about the Bucs beating the Reds, but for the first time in years, all the in laws want to do is talk baseball. A sport they hated for years. No wonder. The Pens and Steelers were disappointments. And Pitt sports are bad now.

Big Klu
07-10-2012, 11:31 PM
A little history here. In 1980, I married a Pittsburgh girl, actually from Penn Hills. We've been married for 32 years. During that time I've discovered two things about sports fans in that area. 1. They have no interest in the games of baseball, football, or hockey except the Pirates, Steelers, and Penguins. They're not knowledgeable about sports at all, but they hold the fate of their own self worth with whether those teams win or not. 2. If the team does not win, they are bums and not worth watching. As long as their team is a winner, they are unbeatable and the greatest thing on earth. If they are not doing well, who cares about baseball (or football or hockey). And they ignore it.

Are there life long Bucs fans who follow their team through each game? Very few. Witness the Pitt basketball team that was so successful over the past few years. This year they weren't very good. And now they are bums. My in-laws all of a sudden hated college basketball.

Luckily, my wife is a good girl and only kids me about the Bucs beating the Reds, but for the first time in years, all the in laws want to do is talk baseball. A sport they hated for years. No wonder. The Pens and Steelers were disappointments. And Pitt sports are bad now.

Do you call out the in-laws on it every chance you get? It's your duty, Judy! :D

WVRedsFan
07-10-2012, 11:43 PM
Do you call out the in-laws on it every chance you get? It's your duty, Judy! :D

Absolutely! They pretty much ignore me. I'm the foreigner, the hoopie from WV who normally marries his sister :). Of course, anything from the Burgh is superior to anything anywhere else, so it's a mute point. But I try.

Tom Servo
07-11-2012, 12:18 AM
I felt like last year many Pirates fans were acting as though the Reds were 'beneath them' which is why I was quite thrilled to see their collapse, even though I think the franchise itself deserves some success.

CrackerJack
07-11-2012, 12:28 AM
Can the likes of McDonald and Burnett continue to pitch the way they have? A lot of their current run has to do with pitchers pitching better than they ever have in their career. Their offense to me has McClutchen and then a bunch of other guys, not bad players just nothing to get excited about. They have thrived in one run games due to a very good bullpen. The question I have is the current pitching staff able to maintain being the NL Best?

If the Pirates make a move it has to be a splash in order to contend. Last season they tried to do it on the bargain rack and ended up with guys like Ludwick and Lee. The problem I see is for the most part they will need to pay for a rental and most of the big spash deals happen in the off season. A Justin Upton deal would make that team much better and the Pirates have the pieces, but those deals don't usually happen in July.

It sounds just like the Reds and their situation/team to a tee, swap McCutcheon's name with Votto and there you have it...two top starters, a good BP, and an average line-up except for one guy, and in the same trade situation, with possibly the same general needs.

lidspinner
07-11-2012, 08:31 AM
Can the likes of McDonald and Burnett continue to pitch the way they have? A lot of their current run has to do with pitchers pitching better than they ever have in their career. Their offense to me has McClutchen and then a bunch of other guys, not bad players just nothing to get excited about. They have thrived in one run games due to a very good bullpen. The question I have is the current pitching staff able to maintain being the NL Best?

If the Pirates make a move it has to be a splash in order to contend. Last season they tried to do it on the bargain rack and ended up with guys like Ludwick and Lee. The problem I see is for the most part they will need to pay for a rental and most of the big spash deals happen in the off season. A Justin Upton deal would make that team much better and the Pirates have the pieces, but those deals don't usually happen in July.


I agree....pitching holding up is the big key here...if they can keep their current pace, or close to it then the Pirates might be the team to beat....if they slip off their current pace then the Reds are the team to beat....I dont think either team is built to run away with the Central....its going to be a fun 2nd half.....and more fun will come in the off season when both teams have holes to fill and if filled, will be staples at the top of the central for years to come....this is where the front office makes their name, build these teams or stand pat and hope minor leaguers come up soon....its going to be fun to see which front office has what it takes to stay on top of the Central.

bucksfan2
07-11-2012, 09:10 AM
It sounds just like the Reds and their situation/team to a tee, swap McCutcheon's name with Votto and there you have it...two top starters, a good BP, and an average line-up except for one guy, and in the same trade situation, with possibly the same general needs.

The Reds have top tier players at 1b, 2b, RF, and even C. The Pirates have one player in McCutcheon. IMO that is the biggest difference in the teams. McCutcheon and Votto are both looking like MVP caliber players but the Reds have more to fall back on than the Pirates.

Slyder
07-11-2012, 10:04 AM
The Reds have top tier players at 1b, 2b, RF, and even C. The Pirates have one player in McCutcheon. IMO that is the biggest difference in the teams. McCutcheon and Votto are both looking like MVP caliber players but the Reds have more to fall back on than the Pirates.

They will have a second if/when they ever call up Marte. I saw him here in Chas and was in awe of his speed. I dont know if he'll ever be the 30+ HR guy many of the scouts claimed when he was here but he will hit for a lot of extra base hits and run for days.

oregonred
07-11-2012, 10:50 AM
Wonder if they are holding back Marte to wait for super-2 status?

The Pirates, courtesy of years of consistently losing 95+ games and annually being in the top three overall picks in the draft, have some serious talent waiting to help from the minors. They have a lot more firepower for a major acquisition if they chose to do so.

Slyder
07-11-2012, 10:58 AM
Wonder if they are holding back Marte to wait for super-2 status?

The Pirates, courtesy of years of consistently losing 95+ games and annually being in the top three overall picks in the draft, have some serious talent waiting to help from the minors. They have a lot more firepower for a major acquisition if they chose to do so.

We already used most of ours in getting Latos which is more than what the Pirates will add, I guarentee you that one.

traderumor
07-11-2012, 03:58 PM
Wonder if they are holding back Marte to wait for super-2 status?

The Pirates, courtesy of years of consistently losing 95+ games and annually being in the top three overall picks in the draft, have some serious talent waiting to help from the minors. They have a lot more firepower for a major acquisition if they chose to do so.Perhaps, but keep in mind that they've been drafting in the top 10 for umpteen years and have Andrew McCutcheon to show for it. Another "I'll believe it when I see it" with that organization.

But then, there was the 60s and 70s after years and years of laughingstock status.

pedro
07-11-2012, 04:05 PM
does anyone really think McCutchen is going to hit .362 in the second half?

vaticanplum
07-11-2012, 04:07 PM
A little history here. In 1980, I married a Pittsburgh girl, actually from Penn Hills. We've been married for 32 years. During that time I've discovered two things about sports fans in that area. 1. They have no interest in the games of baseball, football, or hockey except the Pirates, Steelers, and Penguins. They're not knowledgeable about sports at all, but they hold the fate of their own self worth with whether those teams win or not. 2. If the team does not win, they are bums and not worth watching. As long as their team is a winner, they are unbeatable and the greatest thing on earth. If they are not doing well, who cares about baseball (or football or hockey). And they ignore it.

Are there life long Bucs fans who follow their team through each game? Very few. Witness the Pitt basketball team that was so successful over the past few years. This year they weren't very good. And now they are bums. My in-laws all of a sudden hated college basketball.

Luckily, my wife is a good girl and only kids me about the Bucs beating the Reds, but for the first time in years, all the in laws want to do is talk baseball. A sport they hated for years. No wonder. The Pens and Steelers were disappointments. And Pitt sports are bad now.

This is good insight actually! And you're a good man for being the bastion of decency in fandom.

I'm with you up until the Penguins. My sense is that a large chunk of Penguins fans really do love, respect, and understand the game of hockey. Sure, there's the part of the fanbase that just wants to go home and fall asleep on their Mario Lemieux sheets before Versus's hockey wrap-up even comes on TV, but for the most part I think the American hockey fanbase in general is too fourth-tier to attract many casual fans.

Steelers fans, don't even get me started. I think they forget who's in their division sometimes.

I absolutely love the city of Pittsburgh and I'm obviously pretty fond of sports. But sometimes I think that if I had grown up here, the city would have driven me away from sports. There's no reason for me to care about what Pirates fans think of their team, nor how they analyze it. But I'm inordinately sensitive to fanbases I perceive as ignorant, obnoxious, or not objective (see also: Cubs fans, Red Sox fans -- though I've come around *a lot* on the latter, provided they're not in New York). There is more pointed analysis, astute observation, and simple breaking down of facts in this thread than I've been able to hear anywhere in Pittsburgh -- more in fact than anyone here is even willing to listen to or care about. It shouldn't bother me; all I should care about is how they are really doing and how they are doing in relation to my team, and enjoy going to games at PNC, which is such a beautiful park. One could say I rain unnecessarily on parades of optimism; why should I hold it against these poor Pirates fans that they're excited? I dunno, there's something about blind and ignorant optimism that strikes me as extraordinarily hollow and fake. I'm a Yankees and Reds fan, and I have been around enough to believe with basis that these really are two of the most critical fanbases in baseball. but that seems to go hand-in-hand with a lot of knowledge.

I think the reason is that i watched the exact. same. thing happen last year, and then all I heard about in August was how everyone I knew was never! going! to be fooled! by the Buccos! again!!!! ...and, well, here we are. Only they haven't learned; they're not paying attention to stats or potential improvements any more than they were last year. The Pirates are just the best team in the National League, maybe in baseball, period. A huge number of Pirates fans will tell you that right now. And I *do* think the Pirates are better than they were last year, and with the right moves could be tough to beat starting next year. But that evidence isn't there right now. (I've had one conversation involving real stats with a Pirates fan in the last month. It was five minutes long and began and ended with him telling me that run differential is BS, because in baseball it doesn't matter how many runs you win by.)

And the other reason is because I listen to The Fan all the time, and oh my god. Today I learned that Clint Hurdle needs to be resigned to a 5-7 year contract because a) he is making baseball fun again, and b) he has a winning personality. THERE ARE A LOT OF REASONS TO SIGN CLINT HURDLE. HIS WINNING PERSONALITY SHOULD NOT TOP THE LIST. (I'm going to do this next time I'm up for any kind of promotion or raise, I'm going to remind my boss of my winning personality.) Oh, and there's that little matter of his 72-90 record in the one and only full season he's managed. This was actually brought up, which is surprising since there are numbers in this sentence. But it was a *fun* 72-90 season, so it doesn't matter. That's actually what they said. Also I learned that if Burnett regresses, it's not a worry, because the bullpen will save him. Also I learned that the Pirates are going to the playoffs. Do you know what was not mentioned the entire time I was listening to the fan? The name of ANY OTHER TEAM IN BASEBALL.

I really should just stop listening to talk sports radio.

vaticanplum
07-11-2012, 04:07 PM
does anyone really think McCutchen is going to hit .362 in the second half?

Every Pirate fan thinks McCutchen is going to hit .362 in the second half.

pedro
07-11-2012, 04:09 PM
Every Pirate fan thinks McCutchen is going to hit .362 in the second half.

What do you expect from the "Paris of Appalachia"? ;)

note.. I really do like Pittsburgh. It's just that most of my friends from there lack a certain... um...perspective as WVREDSFAN so eloquently stated.

vaticanplum
07-11-2012, 04:14 PM
What do you expect from the "Paris of Appalachia"? ;)

note.. I really do like Pittsburgh. It's just that most of my friends from there lack a certain... um...perspective as WVREDSFAN so eloquently stated.

I do too, and it's a beautiful city. But nothing exists here if not hyperbole. Ok, you're the Paris of Appalachia. Congrats. Who's your competition, Erie? Morgantown? Jugtown? Noodle Doosie?

Screwball
07-11-2012, 04:21 PM
Alright, I've heard just about enough bad-mouthing of Noodle Doosie.

RichRed
07-11-2012, 04:22 PM
Every Pirate fan thinks McCutchen is going to hit .362 in the second half.

I take it that mentioning McC's unsustainable first-half .407 BABIP to your Pittsburgh friends would be an exercise in futility and facepalmery.

vaticanplum
07-11-2012, 04:27 PM
I take it that mentioning McC's unsustainable first-half .407 BABIP to your Pittsburgh friends would be an exercise in futility and facepalmery.

They would ask if BABIP was something Jerry Sandusky was charged with and send me to Noodle Doosie.

RedlegJake
07-11-2012, 04:29 PM
Pittsburgh fans are a lot like KC fans then. AT least the fans here do live and die with U Kansas and U Missouri and not turn off when they don't do well.

The Pirates will likely regress somewhat but I don't see a collapse. For one thing, a lot of the same guys who were there last year are there again - I mean the young ones. They'll have learned something from last year.

The pitching is much better and Burnett has anchored the staff like a solid veteran. Bedard is a weakness. But McDonald has matured into a bona fide ace material and Correia is a decent #3. The backend Bedard et al, may hurt them. Their bullpen is very talented, though, really as good as ours, maybe better.

Hitting is better than they're given credit for but so much depends on their engine McCutcheon staying hot. Without him that offense folds up like a cheap tent. Unless Alvarez suddenly funds what he has been missing and ignites I think the offense cools off considerably - they've been getting some very lucky hits at opportune times to pull out a few games. All in all I see enough of a regression to fall back a few games but unless the Reds do something to set the table for Joey, in house or by trade, the Reds may be in the same boat and the Cards end up pushing past both the Pirates and the Reds. Right now they are a better balanced ball club suffering from injuries and some problems that aren't keeping them from hanging right there.

Tom Servo
07-11-2012, 04:38 PM
Alright, I've heard just about enough bad-mouthing of Noodle Doosie.
Yeah total slam on Noodle Doosie out of nowhere. Granted it's no Intercourse, but then again what is?

The Operator
07-11-2012, 06:24 PM
Yeah total slam on Noodle Doosie out of nowhere. Granted it's no Intercourse, but then again what is?LOL. Reminds of The Simpsons when Lisa was upset over the teacher's strike.

"At this rate I'll never get into Harvard, I'll be lucky to get into Vassar."

Homer: "I've had just about enough of your Vassar bashing, young lady!"

WVRedsFan
07-11-2012, 06:38 PM
What do you expect from the "Paris of Appalachia"? ;)

note.. I really do like Pittsburgh. It's just that most of my friends from there lack a certain... um...perspective as WVREDSFAN so eloquently stated.

Thanks for the witness vaticanplum and Pedro. And let me say this...trips up there to see the wife's parents are usually fun and I like the city. But the sports fans are probably the most obnoxious I've ever met. Former Post-Gazette sportswriter Colin Dunlap calls them Yinzers. He's never explained to me what that means and my in-laws just say it's the rednecks of Pittsburgh, but there are a bunch of them. I cannot root for them. One trip to PNC with a Reds hat on it all it takes. We usually look around and pick a seat where no one is sitting to escape the harrassment. There are always plenty of empty seats :)

westofyou
07-12-2012, 03:12 PM
http://baseballmusings.com/?p=86230




I’d have more confidence in the Pirates winning if they offered a great pitching staff, but the only thing they do extraordinarily well is prevent home runs. The Pirate pitchers own a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate compared to the division. The Brewers could dominate with their high K rate, but walks and home runs kill them. I’d argue that the best staff in the divison belongs to the Reds, the only team doing well in all aspects of the three-true outcomes. Their home run rate is very good given their home park.


Much as I would like to pick the Pirates to win, I believe both Cincinnati and St. Louis have better teams. The Cardinals power cooled off quite a bit from the first two months of the season, so their offensive capabilities may be over estimated in the graphs. The Pirates are an Andrew McCutchen injury away from a fall, although the rest of the team improved power-wise lately. The Reds, however, seem to offer the best balance of offense and pitching in the division. My best bet is that the division will finish with the Reds, Cardinals and Pirates 1-2-3, but I’m hoping Pittsburgh proves me wrong.

11larkin11
07-12-2012, 10:16 PM
I take it that mentioning McC's unsustainable first-half .407 BABIP to your Pittsburgh friends would be an exercise in futility and facepalmery.

If I tried to explain an advanced baseball stat to a Pittsburgh sports fan, they'd retaliate with something about how Ben Roethlisberger is innocent, Troy Polamalu has the best hair on earth, and Sid the Kid and Evgeni Malkin are both better than Wayne Gretzky could ever dream about.

What I'm trying to say is that its not a baseball town, and they don't know baseball. I bet most couldn't name anyone outside Cutch.

cincrazy
07-12-2012, 10:17 PM
If I tried to explain an advanced baseball stat to a Pittsburgh sports fan, they'd retaliate with something about how Ben Roethlisberger is innocent, Troy Polamalu has the best hair on earth, and Sid the Kid and Evgeni Malkin are both better than Wayne Gretzky could ever dream about.

What I'm trying to say is that its not a baseball town, and they don't know baseball. I bet most couldn't name anyone outside Cutch.

That's not true. I went to two Pirates-Reds games last summer in Pittsburgh, and all of the fans sitting around me both days were extremely knowledgable, not to mention pleasant. Can you fault some of the fans for turning away after 20 years of sheer ineptitude and awful ownership?

The Operator
07-12-2012, 11:45 PM
That's not true. I went to two Pirates-Reds games last summer in Pittsburgh, and all of the fans sitting around me both days were extremely knowledgable, not to mention pleasant. Can you fault some of the fans for turning away after 20 years of sheer ineptitude and awful ownership?Nope.

But at the same time don't go on some front-running, bandwagon joyride acting like you're the game's best fanbase and your team is rivaled only by the 1927 Yankees after half a season of winning baseball.

hebroncougar
07-13-2012, 12:02 AM
Nope.

But at the same time don't go on some front-running, bandwagon joyride acting like you're the game's best fanbase and your team is rivaled only by the 1927 Yankees after half a season of winning baseball.

I know, its shocking when fans overvalue their team and its players.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

The Operator
07-13-2012, 12:13 AM
I know, its shocking when fans overvalue their team and its players.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2It never happens here though. :ughmamoru:

Chip R
07-13-2012, 08:52 AM
Nope.

But at the same time don't go on some front-running, bandwagon joyride acting like you're the game's best fanbase and your team is rivaled only by the 1927 Yankees after half a season of winning baseball.

You mean like Cubs fans? ;)

Sea Ray
07-13-2012, 10:03 AM
It never happens here though. :ughmamoru:

If anything RZ is overly critical of the Reds. There's a lot of complaining about a team with one of the best records in the league

hebroncougar
07-13-2012, 11:12 AM
It never happens here though. :ughmamoru:

I was thinking of the trade thread when I posted that. Stubbs and Corcino for Ellsbury! Stubbs, Corcino and Gregerious for Upton! Bailey and Stubbs for Greinke!

vaticanplum
07-14-2012, 04:39 PM
Hey guys, I don't know if the news has reached southern Ohio yet, but the sky fell in Pittsburgh today.

fearofpopvol1
07-15-2012, 12:22 AM
Pittsburgh has only scored 8 fewer runs than the Reds have now. So anyone who says, "it's the Pirates" can't be taken too seriously. The Reds have still played better, but it's no longer by a longshot. It's pretty close.

CrackerJack
07-15-2012, 12:51 AM
Pittsburgh has only scored 8 fewer runs than the Reds have now. So anyone who says, "it's the Pirates" can't be taken too seriously. The Reds have still played better, but it's no longer by a longshot. It's pretty close.

Just think the Reds had three guys in their lineup tonight batting .198, .212 and .215 or around there. 2 of them batting in the top 4 of the lineup, all 3 regular players.

Hit better in the 2nd half? I sure hope so. The Pirates will surpass them at this rate soon I suppose.

GAC
07-15-2012, 03:52 AM
I think the Reds and Pirates are somewhat comparable teams this year when looking at their strengths/weakness, pitching, offense, what's carried these two teams, what's hurt them.

Could be a very interesting second half.

SidneySlicker
07-19-2012, 10:03 AM
If the Reds can hold on tight to the Pirates for the rest of July, I think the Pirates fall back to earth a little bit in August.
3 In Cincy
4 against the Dbacks who I think are better than their record as we've seen
4 against the Dodgers who are finally getting healthy.
6 against the Cards, who aren't there normal selves, but are very capable of running off a couple series wins
3 against Milwaukee who are very capable of taking a series

I don't think the Pirates are going to go away for good, but the Reds may be able to make some games up during this stretch.

medford
08-02-2012, 04:24 PM
well its put up or shut up time.

I'd gladly take 2 of 3 and move forward, wouldn't even think twice about it, however, imagine what a sweep would do for the Reds? Push them out to a 6.5 game lead a weak into August. that's the kind of lead that would be tough for any team to come back from. Impossible, or even Improbable, obviously not, but still huge in so many regards.

On the other hand, if the Pirates swept the Reds, they'd be brimming with confidence and leave just 0.5 games behind in the standing. I think that would make them fairly confident heading into the dog days of summer. Like myself, I'm sure many Pirates fans would gladly take 2 out of 3 and move forward, leaving w/ a 2.5 game lead and a good deal of confidence.

I wish Cueto was starting this series, but I'm glad Dusty didn't do anything to alter the staff around like we saw Larussa do in 2010. He may have won the battle w/ the Reds that season lining up his starters for the Reds games, but he certainly lost the war in 2010 by putting them in a weaker position for other series possibly leading to their collapse that season.

It has to be fustrating for a Pirates fans that they keep on winning and aren't gaining and ground on the Reds, nor seperating themselves from the Cardinals. Looking forward to the weekend, I'm sure the games will sport a playoff like atmosphere.

traderumor
08-02-2012, 04:29 PM
The pitching matchups spell more high scoring games. I'd be happy with a gem from Latos tomorrow to ensure no worse than a series loss, but games two and three may be slugfests. Although Bailey could have a bounceback start since he's historically owned the Pirates.

fearofpopvol1
08-02-2012, 04:30 PM
I feel like the Reds need Phillips to play to do well this weekend. The Pirates are not the Padres.

PuffyPig
08-02-2012, 05:06 PM
Just think the Reds had three guys in their lineup tonight batting .198, .212 and .215 or around there. 2 of them batting in the top 4 of the lineup, all 3 regular players.

Hit better in the 2nd half? I sure hope so. The Pirates will surpass them at this rate soon I suppose.

It's a fact that we've hit better in the 2nd half. 2nd in RS since the all star break including todays game. Mostly without Votto.

traderumor
08-02-2012, 05:52 PM
I feel like the Reds need Phillips to play to do well this weekend. The Pirates are not the Padres.Conversely, the Reds are not the Astros and Cubs.

fearofpopvol1
08-02-2012, 07:32 PM
Conversely, the Reds are not the Astros and Cubs.

Pirates have had their way with the Reds already this year, even when Phillips and Votto were healthy. Have a look.

Homer Bailey
08-02-2012, 10:51 PM
Pirates have had their way with the Reds already this year, even when Phillips and Votto were healthy. Have a look.

If having their way means having a 5-4 record against the Reds, then yes, they've had their way.

PuffyPig
08-15-2012, 09:18 AM
The Pirates are quickly falling out of the race, during their 11 game homestand they were supposed to use to leapfrog us. They are currently 3-6 on this homestand, with 2 games remaining vs. LA, and Kershaw coming up tonight. They then play 3 in St. Louis this weekend.

The Pirates simply don't have the pitching depth the Reds and Cards have.

cincrazy
08-15-2012, 09:38 AM
Since the AS Break, the Pirates are 16-15. They're hitting .249/.309/.414. Cutch has 1 HR and 6 RBI in his last 6 games. Pedro Alvarez hasn't homered since July 22nd. Their starters have a 4.56 ERA. In losing 10 of their last 16, their ERA is 5.05.

Regression to the mean. Hardcore.

CySeymour
08-15-2012, 09:38 AM
The Pirates are quickly falling out of the race, during their 11 game homestand they were supposed to use to leapfrog us. They are currently 3-6 on this homestand, with 2 games remaining vs. LA, and Kershaw coming up tonight. They then play 3 in St. Louis this weekend.

The Pirates simply don't have the pitching depth the Reds and Cards have.

All along it has been the Cards who I have been most fearful of. My feeling is it will still come down to the last week of the season, and the Reds and Cards will be the top 2 teams in the Central Division.

mattfeet
08-15-2012, 09:40 AM
All along it has been the Cards who I have been most fearful of. My feeling is it will still come down to the last week of the season, and the Reds and Cards will be the top 2 teams in the Central Division.

Agreed. StL can be tied for 2nd after tonight.

The Operator
08-15-2012, 10:11 AM
The Pirates are who Pythagoras thought they were.

http://cache.deadspin.com/assets/images/11/2009/01/061017_dennis_green.jpg