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View Full Version : Dave Cameron: Reds need to go big or go home



OnBaseMachine
06-24-2011, 01:34 PM
Nice piece from Dave Cameron on the Reds. He thinks they should go after Jose Reyes or a J.J. Hardy/Jeremy Guthrie package.


No team in baseball, however, is in a better position to make a blockbuster, season-altering trade than the Reds. The Reds have more talent in Triple-A than several teams do in the Majors, and they have depth on the Major League roster they can move as well. Having multiple interesting young players at every position is nice, but itís time for the Reds to turn some of that excess into the best big league player(s) they can acquire.



http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cincinnati-go-big-or-go-home/

redsfaninbsg
06-24-2011, 01:41 PM
This is pretty much how I have felt since the end of last year. Call me a pessimist, but the Cincinnati Reds in my lifetime have been pretty bad. The way I see it they have a small window (3-4 years) to win a World Series. Words can not express how disappointed I will be if they don't give it their best effort and with each new season comes new injuries, failures, etc. You aren't guaranteed to be in this position next year.

Unassisted
06-24-2011, 01:45 PM
How's the attendance compared to '10? Phil Castellini said last season that the fans needed to show up more than they were at the time if they wanted the team to be able to afford a big FA.

If the money's not there, we shouldn't expect a deal.

mattfeet
06-24-2011, 01:51 PM
Nice article. Can't say I disagree with any of it, either. Here's to hoping the Reds' brass feels the same way.

-Matt

Dan
06-24-2011, 01:51 PM
Don't get Reyes without getting Beltran too. Actually I would prefer Beltran first and Reyes if he can be gotten.

reds44
06-24-2011, 01:55 PM
The article is how I think a lot of people here feel.

And there will be more guys available than just Reyes.

Kc61
06-24-2011, 01:57 PM
How's the attendance compared to '10? Phil Castellini said last season that the fans needed to show up more than they were at the time if they wanted the team to be able to afford a big FA.

If the money's not there, we shouldn't expect a deal.

If the money's not there, then the Reds should promote its very best AAA guys to fill holes on the major league team.

People, myself included, are frustrated by the inactivity. If not trades, then there should be promotions.

757690
06-24-2011, 01:58 PM
Cameron doesn't mention that Reyes would be a three month rental, and a huge payroll increase. I have no problem with a deal like that to get Reyes if I thought the Reds could sign him to an extension. But that ain't happening.

I agree with the concept, it is time to cash in on some of these prospects, and I am confident that improvements will be made. But I would much rather use those guys to get a solid #1 or an above average LF.

Johnny Footstool
06-24-2011, 02:02 PM
Cameron doesn't mention that Reyes would be a three month rental, and a huge payroll increase. I have no problem with a deal like that to get Reyes if I thought the Reds could sign him to an extension. But that ain't happening.

I agree with the concept, it is time to cash in on some of these prospects, and I am confident that improvements will be made. But I would much rather use those guys to get a solid #1 or an above average LF.

A solid #1 isn't available.

Reyes probably is.

GoReds
06-24-2011, 02:05 PM
If the Twins have a cold couple of weeks, I'd like to see the Reds make a play for Liriano.

Unassisted
06-24-2011, 02:16 PM
If the money's not there, then the Reds should promote its very best AAA guys to fill holes on the major league team.

People, myself included, are frustrated by the inactivity. If not trades, then there should be promotions.Starting arb clocks prematurely is not a strategy for long-term success. :thumbdown:

AmarilloRed
06-24-2011, 02:16 PM
Reyes has already said he won't sign an extension during the regular season. No good reason to trade three talented prospects for a rental. Just wait until the offseason and we can sign him along with everyone else.

Kc61
06-24-2011, 02:18 PM
Starting arb clocks prematurely is not a strategy for long-term success. :thumbdown:

Leaving guys at AAA until they lose their prospect status is not a strategy for long-term success.

Reds Freak
06-24-2011, 02:25 PM
I, for one, appreciate the patience of Walt and Dusty. I think we all agree that the team is set up and gearing towards sustainable success over a long period of time. Or at least sustainable competitiveness. I think they're achieving that.

Let's not get delusional and act like the Reds could bring Cozart up, play him every day at SS and bat him in the four hole. No need to 'go big or go home'. The Brewers decided to do it, but the Reds aren't in that position. I can't see any need to unload prospects for a few months of an average at best starting pitcher and a shortstop playing over his head. I trust Walt to make the right move if it comes along for the betterment of the team in the short-term and the long-term.

CrackerJack
06-24-2011, 02:27 PM
If Castellini wants more people at games, his team needs to start playing better at home in particular, and be a little more exciting offensively.

edabbs44
06-24-2011, 02:30 PM
The news in NY is that Reyes likely won't become available.

edabbs44
06-24-2011, 02:41 PM
Cameron also thinks that Cozart's bat isnt legit and Alonso' bat won't be able to carry his glove in LF.

RedsManRick
06-24-2011, 02:48 PM
Regarding Reyes as rental, I think not mentioning that is part of Cameron's point. Ironically, if the Reds care about the future, they need to think short term. His Rangers example drives that home. Sure, they gave up Justin Smoak. But they rode Cliff Lee to a World Series appearance and are reaping the benefit in terms of attendance. If you consider that every additional 1,000 fans in average attendance is something like $2M in revenue. The difference between making a deep playoff run and merely being competitive could very well be the difference in being able to afford to add another high-priced veteran.

The Reds have an opportunity this year to take the next step up the performance-revenue-talent ladder. There aren't going to be any additional holes for Alonso, a C or a SP to fill next year. Walt has done a good job collecting assets. It's time to cash in.

Tony Cloninger
06-24-2011, 03:27 PM
How's the attendance compared to '10? Phil Castellini said last season that the fans needed to show up more than they were at the time if they wanted the team to be able to afford a big FA.

If the money's not there, we shouldn't expect a deal.


What would make a fan want to come and see this team in the last month? The casual and far away fan probably sees mediocrity on the TV and wonders why he should bother....while the FO sits around and waits and then will blame the fans in some sense...for not showing up more.

Tony Cloninger
06-24-2011, 03:34 PM
Cameron also thinks that Cozart's bat isnt legit and Alonso' bat won't be able to carry his glove in LF.

Yet he wants them to trade for a clone IMO that Hardy is to what Cozart could be...minus maybe the HR power, before the injuries, that Hardy had.

I cannot believe that the Ray Oyler and Johnnie LeMaster combo at SS could not be out produced by Cozart...no matter what his BA whatever is.

Benihana
06-24-2011, 03:36 PM
This article pretty much sums up how I've felt about the Reds since this time last season. Go out, make a splash, and compete for a title. Sitting on your hands waiting for the already ripe fruit to ripen further is not a strategy for success. Convert your excess pieces into usable assets. Make the Cliff Lee trade, the Zack Greinke trade, the Shaun Marcum trade, the Jose Reyes trade. Do something big, or else rot. Every team should always be buyers or sellers at the deadline. Straddling the fence just punctures your balls.

dfs
06-24-2011, 03:39 PM
Does Reyes or Hardy put this team over the top and make them favorites over the Phillies?

Yeah, I don't think so either.

Does Reyes or Hardy significantly increase the odds that this team will catch both the Brewers and the Cardinals?

I'm not so sure about that either.

Cozart over Rentaria. Getting Yonder 200 at bats. Those seem to be just as useful.

EddieMilner
06-24-2011, 03:40 PM
How's the attendance compared to '10? Phil Castellini said last season that the fans needed to show up more than they were at the time if they wanted the team to be able to afford a big FA.

If the money's not there, we shouldn't expect a deal.

According to ESPN:
2011
Through 41 games at home:
Total = 1,059,168
Avg = 25,833

2010 Entire Season:
Total = 2,060,550
Avg = 25,438

Dayton Daily News Reds webpage used to have an attendance section where you could see the current years attendance vs. the previous years attendance for each game.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-24-2011, 03:42 PM
A better comparison would be thru 41 home games this season and thru 41 home games last season.

EddieMilner
06-24-2011, 03:43 PM
A better comparison would be 41 home games this season and thru 41 home games last season.

I agree, couldn't find that data on a quick interwebs search though.

EddieMilner
06-24-2011, 03:53 PM
A better comparison would be thru 41 home games this season and thru 41 home games last season.

Found a table for 2010 Reds attendance:

2010 Through 41 games:
Total = 911,473
Avg = 22,231

2011 Through 41 games:
Total = 1,059,168
Avg = 25,833

corkedbat
06-24-2011, 03:56 PM
I, for one, appreciate the patience of Walt and Dusty. I think we all agree that the team is set up and gearing towards sustainable success over a long period of time. Or at least sustainable competitiveness. I think they're achieving that.

Let's not get delusional and act like the Reds could bring Cozart up, play him every day at SS and bat him in the four hole. No need to 'go big or go home'. The Brewers decided to do it, but the Reds aren't in that position. I can't see any need to unload prospects for a few months of an average at best starting pitcher and a shortstop playing over his head. I trust Walt to make the right move if it comes along for the betterment of the team in the short-term and the long-term.

I'm not sure who has been (or ever would be) delusional enough to believe Cozart will come up and step into the Cleanup spot. I do believe he can come up and improve production at the bottom of thye order and if he proves good ebough, maybe even move to one of he top two spots in the order if he exceeds expectatrons.

At the very least, by bringing him up now, you have amonth to see if he is some kind of answer at SS. If not, you can still deall for a SS at the deadline (if need be) or if he succeeds, you can direct trade resources elsewhere.

traderumor
06-24-2011, 03:59 PM
What would make a fan want to come and see this team in the last month? The casual and far away fan probably sees mediocrity on the TV and wonders why he should bother....while the FO sits around and waits and then will blame the fans in some sense...for not showing up more.The "casual and far away fan" would not see mediocrity. They would say "let's go to a ballgame. This team made the playoffs and are hanging in there this year. Haven't been to a game in forever and have been wanting to see the new ballpark. Let's go see what's going on down there."

It's only the "sophisticated" fan that whines endlessly about perceived mediocrity and stays away with his arms crossed waiting to see baseball perfection.

Unassisted
06-24-2011, 04:01 PM
Found a table for 2010 Reds attendance:

2010 Through 41 games:
Total = 911,473
Avg = 22,231

2011 Through 41 games:
Total = 1,059,168
Avg = 25,833I'd say that's a good argument in favor of increasing the payroll. Fans delivered and the FO should, too. :thumbup:

Johnny Footstool
06-24-2011, 04:02 PM
Does Reyes or Hardy put this team over the top and make them favorites over the Phillies?

Yeah, I don't think so either.

Does Reyes or Hardy significantly increase the odds that this team will catch both the Brewers and the Cardinals?

I'm not so sure about that either.

Cozart over Rentaria. Getting Yonder 200 at bats. Those seem to be just as useful.

The Giants weren't the favorites over the Phillies last season.

IMO, adding Reyes would bump the Reds' offense in an elite category. It would instantly give them the talent to win the division, and it would make them a force in any playoff series.

Yes, they need an ace, but where are they going to find one? One who isn't a dreaded "rental", yet won't cost the farm?

If Reyes even *seems* available (and he does), the Reds need to take a shot.

Adding Hardy is an afterthought. He would probably only cost one decent prospect and a throw-in.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-24-2011, 04:03 PM
nm

Tony Cloninger
06-24-2011, 04:13 PM
The "casual and far away fan" would not see mediocrity. They would say "let's go to a ballgame. This team made the playoffs and are hanging in there this year. Haven't been to a game in forever and have been wanting to see the new ballpark. Let's go see what's going on down there."

It's only the "sophisticated" fan that whines endlessly about perceived mediocrity and stays away with his arms crossed waiting to see baseball perfection.


Is this a backhanded compliment at my sophistication? :D

BuckeyeRedleg
06-24-2011, 04:27 PM
Who cares about being better than the Phillies.

It's about making the playoffs. Once in, it's a crapshoot (Giants in 2010).

Just try not to match yourself up with the Phillies in the 1st round. That would be nice, but hey, anything can happen in a 5-game series.

Just win (baby!) and make the playoffs!

CrackerJack
06-24-2011, 04:37 PM
The "casual and far away fan" would not see mediocrity. They would say "let's go to a ballgame. This team made the playoffs and are hanging in there this year. Haven't been to a game in forever and have been wanting to see the new ballpark. Let's go see what's going on down there."

It's only the "sophisticated" fan that whines endlessly about perceived mediocrity and stays away with his arms crossed waiting to see baseball perfection.

Although GABP is hardly "new" at this point, hard to believe there's anyone within driving distance who hasn't seen/been there yet.

I think there's truth in both of your posts/sentiments though. Yet the way they've performed at home this year, doesn't leave one with a very positive experience, knowing they're going to lose the game more often than not.

They sign someone that gets them excited and turn it around in general, and that changes.

Forcing people to do something they don't want to do with a guilt trip never works.

Kc61
06-24-2011, 04:48 PM
Does Reyes or Hardy put this team over the top and make them favorites over the Phillies?

Yeah, I don't think so either.

Does Reyes or Hardy significantly increase the odds that this team will catch both the Brewers and the Cardinals?

I'm not so sure about that either.

Cozart over Rentaria. Getting Yonder 200 at bats. Those seem to be just as useful.

The first choice should be to get good veteran players to fill holes. The team has two major holes and is sporadic on offense. Get two good players and elevate those positions.

The idea is to win, the division is in reach, go for it. The fans aren't here focusing on 2018.

I don't agree on Yonder, who doesn't have a position on the Reds, but I do believe that Cozart is obvious "low hanging fruit." It really makes no sense for him to play at AAA with the Reds getting no offensive production from SS.

So IMO, the Reds should be making deals to fill holes with good proven talent. Second choice, bring up some AAA guys, particularly Cozart who maybe fills an obvious need.

traderumor
06-24-2011, 05:05 PM
Is this a backhanded compliment at my sophistication? :DIt is what I believe to be the more accurate caricature. Casual fans are still in "made the playoffs, haven't tanked, Reds worth my time for now." The flip side is the inability to enjoy going to a game because the team is not worth watching due to flaws. Sort of like a movie critic trying to enjoy a few cheap jokes in Shallow Hal, but just cannot laugh because of the horrible plot and storyline :)

757690
06-24-2011, 05:41 PM
Regarding Reyes as rental, I think not mentioning that is part of Cameron's point. Ironically, if the Reds care about the future, they need to think short term. His Rangers example drives that home. Sure, they gave up Justin Smoak. But they rode Cliff Lee to a World Series appearance and are reaping the benefit in terms of attendance. If you consider that every additional 1,000 fans in average attendance is something like $2M in revenue. The difference between making a deep playoff run and merely being competitive could very well be the difference in being able to afford to add another high-priced veteran.

The Reds have an opportunity this year to take the next step up the performance-revenue-talent ladder. There aren't going to be any additional holes for Alonso, a C or a SP to fill next year. Walt has done a good job collecting assets. It's time to cash in.

If it was Yonder and a few spare parts, like Frazier and Hanigan for Reyes, I think, or at least hope, the Reds would do that in a heart beat.

But Cozart appears to be a potential league average SS and Wood a solid #3-5 starter, both for many year to come. That's too much when you consider not just that Reyes is a rental, but an expensive one at that.

The thing is, is that I think Cameron is correct that it would take a package like he suggested to get Reyes, based on how the Mets are currently valuing Reyes.

dougdirt
06-24-2011, 06:03 PM
Starting arb clocks prematurely is not a strategy for long-term success. :thumbdown:

The only prospect in AAA who would realistically be an "early" arbitration clock is Devin Mesoraco, who is just turned 23 last week.

Dave Sappelt, Juan Francisco and Yonder Alonso are all 24 (meaning you have them through the age of 30).

Everyone else is even older than that. You aren't starting arbitration early on guys like that.

Guacarock
06-24-2011, 06:34 PM
The Orioles are considering an extension for J.J. Hardy and would like to limit the deal to two or three years. Hardy, 28, is hitting .304/.366/.532 in his contract year.


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/06/heyman-on-riggleman-hardy-melvin-.html

_Sir_Charles_
06-24-2011, 07:27 PM
I agree with the premise of the article. But not the targets. AT ALL.

A shortstop...JJ Hardy isn't it. I really don't see him being an upgrade over Janish/Cozart IMO. Guthrie...again, he's a nice pitcher...but he's yet another mid-rotation guy. Something we have a plethora of. If we're going to go in for a pitcher, he needs to be a legitimate top of the rotation kind of pitcher. Somebody as good as, if not better than, Cueto. Somebody who bumps Arroyo down to the #3 spot. And I'll be honest, I don't see any guys like that available. Same goes for short. Where are these shortstops who are available? Reyes? I'll pass. He's a rental, overpriced, and I really don't like to think of what he'll do to the team chemistry. Get Cozart up here and lets see what he can do before we go all in for a rental.

In my opinion, there is one team we should be looking at. The Giants. They're in pretty desperate need of catching and offense. Two things we can most certainly provide. And what do THEY have? Starting pitching. Any chance we can pry Matt Cain from them? I've got no interest in Sanchez (Volquez type control). No chance they'll deal Lincecum (plus I think he's just begging to become injury prone).

Can anybody else see any ToR arms that might be available if the deal was right? I'd obviously love to see a ground ball inducing lefty...but beggars can't be choosers, right?

Superdude
06-24-2011, 07:39 PM
Has Hardy been hurt the past few years? He had those two solid years in '07 and '08, then fall off the map for two years, and now he's playing better than he ever has. Not to sure what to make of that.

_Sir_Charles_
06-24-2011, 07:51 PM
I was looking through the AAA pitching stats and one team popped right out at me. The Braves. They've got some guys that are POUNDING on the door to the bigs.

Julio Teheran (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t431&t=p_pbp&pid=527054)
Todd Redmond (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t431&t=p_pbp&pid=445170)
Rodrigo Lopez (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t431&t=p_pbp&pid=150438)
Mike Minor (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t431&t=p_pbp&pid=501985)

All 4 of these guys are starters with AAA era's under 2.50. Certainly, one of them (if not 2) are ready for promotions. So, that being said....

Jair Jurrjens. Under contract for this year only at 3.25 million. He'll be arbitration eligible next year. And he most definitely fits the bill of the type of pitcher we should target. Any chance we could pry him away from the Braves? They have needs at 1B as they're playing Freddie Freeman there. I'd think Yonder would appeal to them. But where else do they have needs? 3B as Chipper won't be around much longer? SS as AGon is getting long in the tooth? Frazier or Francisco?

Just tossing ideas out here guys.

camisadelgolf
06-24-2011, 07:59 PM
The Braves are buyers--not sellers.

edabbs44
06-24-2011, 08:52 PM
The Braves are buyers--not sellers.

Yep, they wouldn't trade him

Slyder
06-24-2011, 09:05 PM
I was looking through the AAA pitching stats and one team popped right out at me. The Braves. They've got some guys that are POUNDING on the door to the bigs.

Julio Teheran (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t431&t=p_pbp&pid=527054)
Todd Redmond (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t431&t=p_pbp&pid=445170)
Rodrigo Lopez (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t431&t=p_pbp&pid=150438)
Mike Minor (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t431&t=p_pbp&pid=501985)

All 4 of these guys are starters with AAA era's under 2.50. Certainly, one of them (if not 2) are ready for promotions. So, that being said....

Jair Jurrjens. Under contract for this year only at 3.25 million. He'll be arbitration eligible next year. And he most definitely fits the bill of the type of pitcher we should target. Any chance we could pry him away from the Braves? They have needs at 1B as they're playing Freddie Freeman there. I'd think Yonder would appeal to them. But where else do they have needs? 3B as Chipper won't be around much longer? SS as AGon is getting long in the tooth? Frazier or Francisco?

Just tossing ideas out here guys.

Would they bite on one of those guys for Francisco and assorted parts to help them? And then spin them into a possibile deal for a Reyes type or another big time trade?

Always Red
06-24-2011, 10:16 PM
Who cares about being better than the Phillies.

It's about making the playoffs. Once in, it's a crapshoot (Giants in 2010).

Just try not to match yourself up with the Phillies in the 1st round. That would be nice, but hey, anything can happen in a 5-game series.

Just win (baby!) and make the playoffs!

I agree- but you have to have some pitching to advance (see Giants, 2010)

corkedbat
06-25-2011, 12:53 AM
They talked about how the fans on the boards were calling for Cozart and they alluded to Dusty last year talking about sticking with Cordero and saying what if I replace him with somebody and that guy fails? Do I go back to Coco and say will you be my closer again?

Duh yeah. First of all Dusty, you are the manager - you shouldn't have to say anything. Secondly, if you really must say anything, you say "I am the manager and my azz is the first one out the door if things go pear-shaped - not yours. This is a club in playoff contention and we need the best possible production from every spot on this team. Right now, unfortunately, we are not getting that type of production from your spot and we're going to try something else. You still have a job - a roster spot (unlike your DFA'd former partner) and you are a professional. I expect you to do your best to improve and perform like I know you can. That's very important, especially since your turn may come around again sooner than you think and you'll want to be ready. Now go put on your big boy pants and get out there."

Add to that, Janish does not have the track record Coco does and is due less margin for error.

remdog
06-25-2011, 05:22 AM
Who the heck is Dave Cameron and why would I care what he thinks? :p

Rem

RedLegSuperStar
06-25-2011, 07:24 AM
Shockingly I myself want to see what we have before we make any trades. I would give Alonso and Cozart open auditions now until mid July. Lewis and Renteria become DFA'd and if these 2 don't pan out then I would like to see a Jose Reyes or if Florida is willing to see what Hanley could fetch then I would target those type guys. But I think we have the answers in Louisville.. Just not willing to go that route for some reason.

steig
06-25-2011, 02:03 PM
I like the idea of going big right now with the depth in the minors. I wonder if the promotion of Yasmani is possibly some posturing to demonstrate the depth the Reds have at a very coveted position.

Dan
06-25-2011, 02:20 PM
Who the heck is Dave Cameron and why would I care what he thinks? :p

Rem

Isn't he the guy we traded Konerko to get?