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View Full Version : It may be time to replace Volquez w/ Dontrelle Willis



Kingspoint
06-25-2011, 05:54 PM
Volquez just isn't getting it done.

Willis went 8 innings last night throwing 105 pitches w/ no walks and 7 K's. He's now sporting a 2.74 ERA and a 2.26 GO/AO ratio which would do well at the GAB.

izzy's dad
06-25-2011, 06:02 PM
I am on board.

Old NDN
06-25-2011, 06:46 PM
Me too. Anybody (almost) but Volquez. He's been given ample opportunity to get himself straightened out. But, what do you do with him?

Kiss the Baby00
06-25-2011, 06:54 PM
count me in. lets see what DW has.

Vottomatic
06-25-2011, 07:13 PM
I'm on board. But I'm not getting my hopes up. Unless Willis has fixed all his problems, it's a big difference between triple A and the majors.

Volquez just doesn't seem to be a competitor to me, unlike Cueto.

DocRed
06-25-2011, 08:46 PM
EV and Arroyo OUT.....Homer and Dontrelle IN

Reds
06-25-2011, 10:23 PM
Get Dontrelle in the rotation, i'm his number one fan

webbbj
06-25-2011, 10:23 PM
Get Dontrelle in the rotation, i'm his number one fan

doubted

Who Dey Time
06-25-2011, 11:14 PM
Why not put LeCure back in the rotation?

bshall2105
06-25-2011, 11:23 PM
Why not put LeCure back in the rotation?

He won't be able to pitch deep into games because he's not stretched out.

DocRed
06-25-2011, 11:44 PM
EV is trash
Arroyo is trash

Redeye fly
06-26-2011, 12:39 AM
EV is trash
Arroyo is trash

I agree. I completely hate pitchers who give you close to 220 innings a year every year, 14 wins or so a year, and lower than the league average ERA in most years while never missing a start.

Those guys are so trashy.

R_Webb18
06-26-2011, 12:56 AM
I agree. I completely hate pitchers who give you close to 220 innings a year every year, 14 wins or so a year, and lower than the league average ERA in most years while never missing a start.

Those guys are so trashy.

agree. ppl should know by now this guy is not an ace but you know what ur gonna get out of him and more times than not u will have chance to win.

bshall2105
06-26-2011, 12:57 AM
I agree. I completely hate pitchers who give you close to 220 innings a year every year, 14 wins or so a year, and lower than the league average ERA in most years while never missing a start.

Those guys are so trashy.

I agree, since Arizona is a contender I say we offer him for Willy Mo.

Redeye fly
06-26-2011, 01:19 AM
agree. ppl should know by now this guy is not an ace but you know what ur gonna get out of him and more times than not u will have chance to win.

I like to take in and consider information from Baseball prospectus and some other sources. I like to look at some of the stats that are trendy today with the saber guys. But I don't necessarily spend a lot of time with them or as much time studying and using them as much as some others do.

Sometimes it's just as quick to go to baseball reference and look at some of those numbers and also look at the similarity scores and these guys in comparison to other players. Right there at the top for Bronson in terms of most similar pitcher through age 33 was John Burkett. That's really not a bad comparison in terms of the type of pitcher Bronson is and the way he does thing. Neither guy was really very flashy. Both of them were hittable, neither guy was really a strikeout guy. For the most part, you never looked at the guy in most years as one of the league's best or the ace of a staff. But they pitched well and found ways to win games and be effective major league pitchers. I mean, Burkett won 166 games in his career. Bronson probably won't do that unless he pitches effectively and regularly until he's 40 or close to it. But both guys are/were your typical solid #4 starter in a good rotation... maybe even a passable #3 starter in a good rotation when they're going right.

Vottomatic
06-26-2011, 10:17 AM
I never get the criticism of Arroyo. 3 of the last 5 seasons he's posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. 4 of the last 5 seasons, he's posted a sub-4.23 e.r.a. Give me a break. And this year he suffered from mono and probably has lingering effects and is still battling. He's thrown for over 200 innings each of the last 6 seasons.

For a team wearing down their bullpen, you need SOMEONE who can give you innings as a starter. Volquez can't. Wood has struggled. Bailey has been fragile and not here.

DocRed
06-26-2011, 11:12 AM
I never get the criticism of Arroyo. 3 of the last 5 seasons he's posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. 4 of the last 5 seasons, he's posted a sub-4.23 e.r.a. Give me a break. And this year he suffered from mono and probably has lingering effects and is still battling. He's thrown for over 200 innings each of the last 6 seasons.

For a team wearing down their bullpen, you need SOMEONE who can give you innings as a starter. Volquez can't. Wood has struggled. Bailey has been fragile and not here.

The problem is Arroyo is supposed to be our #1 starter....he makes $11+ Million a year. He was good last year, but that doesn't mean he gets a free pass this year. He needs to continue to earn his $11 million dollar paycheck this year. I don't know how you can be happy paying a 5.01 ERA pitcher $11+ million a year, especially in a small market such as Cincinnati where such contracts can easily cripple a team.

R_Webb18
06-26-2011, 11:47 AM
The problem is Arroyo is supposed to be our #1 starter....he makes $11+ Million a year. He was good last year, but that doesn't mean he gets a free pass this year. He needs to continue to earn his $11 million dollar paycheck this year. I don't know how you can be happy paying a 5.01 ERA pitcher $11+ million a year, especially in a small market such as Cincinnati where such contracts can easily cripple a team.

he is what he is. by now you should know what your getting.

o btw if u thought he was our number 1 ur wrong

Old NDN
06-26-2011, 12:17 PM
Why not give Willis a shot? He seems to have conquered his control problems at L'ville. I know it's only 3A, but he has had success in MLB in the past. More EV is not the answer, IMO. BTW, if we're looking for bodies to include in potential trades, how about Arrendondo? I think this experiment has run its course.

DocRed
06-26-2011, 12:30 PM
he is what he is. by now you should know what your getting.

o btw if u thought he was our number 1 ur wrong

And what starter makes more than he does?

Redeye fly
06-26-2011, 12:33 PM
The problem is Arroyo is supposed to be our #1 starter....he makes $11+ Million a year. He was good last year, but that doesn't mean he gets a free pass this year. He needs to continue to earn his $11 million dollar paycheck this year. I don't know how you can be happy paying a 5.01 ERA pitcher $11+ million a year, especially in a small market such as Cincinnati where such contracts can easily cripple a team.

Who has said, other than you, that Arroyo is supposed to be our #1 starter? To my recollection he has never been our opening day starter, and that generally is who an organization considers it's "ace", unless there are of course injuries involved. He is our highest paid starter, and if someone wants to make the argument that he's overpaid, that's fine. But there's a lot of guys all over baseball who you can argue are overpaid, in both big markets and small ones.

Aside from that, as Vottomatic mentioned, there have been issues at play such as mono and back problems. Does that give him a "free pass"? That's up to whomever wants to consider it I suppose. But the key thing here is that it's jumping the gun a bit to say Arroyo is "trash" because of a 5.01 ERA in late June when his history suggests by the end of the year his ERA will be closer to where Vottomatic has mentioned.

It certainly isn't out of the range of Arroyo's ability to go out and throw 7 or 8 good starts in a row and get that ERA lowered nicely. He won't necessarily look sexy doing it, but he can do it and has before.

bigredmechanism
06-26-2011, 12:39 PM
And what starter makes more than he does?

I don't think rotation slot is based on salary. If so, there were a couple of years whereBarry Zito was the ace of the Giants, with Lincecum and Cain at 2 and 3, respectively.

Arroyo's contract does pay him a lot, but over the course of a season the innings that he will throw and the durability he has are ultimately what makes him the cash. He is not the ace of the staff, but he is a valuable piece to it.

R_Webb18
06-26-2011, 01:10 PM
im guessin it wont happen for anthor start or 2. even if it should.

Vottomatic
06-26-2011, 01:25 PM
Who has said, other than you, that Arroyo is supposed to be our #1 starter? To my recollection he has never been our opening day starter, and that generally is who an organization considers it's "ace", unless there are of course injuries involved. He is our highest paid starter, and if someone wants to make the argument that he's overpaid, that's fine. But there's a lot of guys all over baseball who you can argue are overpaid, in both big markets and small ones.

Aside from that, as Vottomatic mentioned, there have been issues at play such as mono and back problems. Does that give him a "free pass"? That's up to whomever wants to consider it I suppose. But the key thing here is that it's jumping the gun a bit to say Arroyo is "trash" because of a 5.01 ERA in late June when his history suggests by the end of the year his ERA will be closer to where Vottomatic has mentioned.

It certainly isn't out of the range of Arroyo's ability to go out and throw 7 or 8 good starts in a row and get that ERA lowered nicely. He won't necessarily look sexy doing it, but he can do it and has before.

Arroyo has always been better in the second half of the season than the first half. And Dusty left him out there to take one for the team already this year which inflated his e.r.a. like the year he got pummeled by Toronto for 10 earned runs in an inning. Back on May 23rd, Arroyo pitched 2 innings against Philly and gave up 9 earned runs. Any normal manager would have taken him out, but not Krusty. Arroyo's e.r.a. jumped from 4.11 to 5.28 after that game. Arroyo doesn't complain, but I would have.

Plenty of teams have veteran pitchers making more than their young pitchers (like the Reds do) simply because of the pay structure of mlb. A young phenom won't get a big contract until he's either done with his arbitration years or he signs a contract to get paid now, which also benefits the team he plays for (like Votto and Cueto did). And #1 pitchers are now making in the $15 to $20M range........not $10 or $11M.

Vottomatic
06-26-2011, 01:30 PM
And what starter makes more than he does?

Last year Randy Wolf made alot more than Gallardo did for the Brewers. Clearly Gallardo was the staff ace.

So what's your point? :confused:

Redeye fly
06-26-2011, 02:58 PM
And what starter makes more than he does?

You think the guy who is paid the most money is automatically supposed to be the ace of the staff?

That's one way to look at it I suppose. But contracts and the payroll of a major league team is not anywhere near that simple or black and white. In a perfect world perhaps it would be. But there are factors at play such as major league service time, a player's age and where he's at and where the organization projects him to be over the next several years, his most recent major league results, who else is on the team, who comes to the team, who leaves the team, etc.

It's simply not that cut and dry.

Is Arroyo a bit overpaid? Perhaps- I'm not sure off the top of my head where we're at in his contract or what contract we're in. The Reds no doubt initially paid for the ace or at least number two type starter that Arroyo pitched like when he first arrived in Cincinnati. He's not that, but when he first arrived it was basically Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and no one else as far as credible and consistent major league starters. So even if the Reds overpaid, at the time Arroyo was at least the second best starter behind Harang if not the ace of the Reds staff.

Since then, the Reds obviously have some better arms who at least come closer to the ace profile (Cueto, Bailey, Volquez when he's right). But they are all younger and less proven than Arroyo, so they're not going to be making as much money. That's particularly the case when the Reds are a small market team as you mentioned. If they're going to pay Arroyo what they do, plus pay guys like Cordero, Votto, and Bruce, then there's only so much money to go around.

Look at it this way. The Reds could have a Doc Gooden doing what he did in his first 2 years as a big leaguer. Clearly that would make him the ace of the staff. But since he would have only been in the majors for 2 years or so, the Reds would not yet be paying him as much as they would be paying Arroyo.

It's not Arroyo's fault that he's paid what he is. It's the state of the team and the staff when he arrived. He established himself as a pitcher worth keeping around and not the previous dumpster diving reclamation projects like Jimmy Haynes, Paul Wilson, Cory Lidle, Jimmy Anderson, and many others.

He doesn't need to be an ace. He just needs to be himself.

Kiss the Baby00
06-26-2011, 07:44 PM
Arroyo is fine as a #3 or 4 guy. that being said he is vastly overpaid for what he offers.

jwmann2
06-26-2011, 08:13 PM
Isn't Willis in the Minors for a reason, and Volquez in the starting lineup for a reason? Let Dusy and his boys do their job.

Kingspoint
06-27-2011, 12:01 AM
You've got to give the REDS credit during the Winter negotiations with players. They were 4 for 4 in that they were correct at offering Volquez less than what he thought he was worth. Looks like he should have taken their offer. They nailed the Cueto, Bruce and Votto contracts, too, while correctly picking Arroyo instead of Harang as the "Veteran" pitcher to hold onto. You could say they missed one though, as it's looking like they under-estimated the value that Arthur Rhodes meant to the team while over-estimating Chapman.

Kingspoint
06-27-2011, 12:11 AM
Isn't Willis in the Minors for a reason, and Volquez in the starting lineup for a reason? Let Dusy and his boys do their job.

"for a reason" doesn't make any sense.

One does a "monthly" inventory of their business assets so that they can "re-evaluate" how their assets are being used. You don't leave an item in a high-foot traffic area that isn't selling because you had it there "for a reason". You replace it with something that is doing exceptionally well in an area that doesn't get much foot traffic, and see if it does better in the high-traffic area than the item that's not selling.

Volquez is the item that's not selling in the high-foot traffic area, while Dontrelle is the item that's doing exceptionally well in the area that gets less foot traffic.

It could be that Dontrelle won't do any better, but at this point, there's nothing to lose because Volquez isn't getting it done, and it's been 10 months that he hasn't been getting it done. It's not like we're talking about a month or two with Volquez.

Willis has been a "hot" item before, and he's very capable of being that guy again. No reason not to give him his shot. The opportunity is there.

Because there are personalities involved, it's more delicate than moving stock items on a shelf, so one is more apt to wait a little longer than normal. For this reason, Walt will probably wait one more start, then give Willis two starts before the All-Star break at the Major League level, so he can evaluate what he has before deciding on his final shuffle for the push to the playoffs. At 4 games back, 1 game back from 2nd place, there is time to be patient.

R_Webb18
06-27-2011, 12:18 AM
Volquez is getting old. hes no fun to watch. you almost figure we got to score 10 reds to win. atleast with every1 else you can see a solid job every so often. with him 5 runs is a victory.

bounty37h
06-27-2011, 12:12 PM
Right now I would replace him with Willis, Arnold, Kimberly, heck, even ol Mr. Drummond.

Girevik
06-27-2011, 01:04 PM
Right now I would replace him with Willis, Arnold, Kimberly, heck, even ol Mr. Drummond.

What 'chu talkin' about?

wlf WV
06-28-2011, 08:32 AM
I give Volquez another start or two,then try another option.I definitely hold on to him as long as he has options,not that many people,let alone Reds,have TOR tools.He's only 27 coming off Tommy John.He won 17 games the year before he got hurt.I think he will be an ace.He may just take longer to get it together.

CrosleyField
06-28-2011, 09:52 AM
You've got to give the REDS credit during the Winter negotiations with players. They were 4 for 4 in that they were correct at offering Volquez less than what he thought he was worth. Looks like he should have taken their offer. They nailed the Cueto, Bruce and Votto contracts, too, while correctly picking Arroyo instead of Harang as the "Veteran" pitcher to hold onto. You could say they missed one though, as it's looking like they under-estimated the value that Arthur Rhodes meant to the team while over-estimating Chapman.


I think we miss Rhodes more than we think we do.


DFA Renteria :thumbup:

webbbj
06-28-2011, 10:55 AM
I give Volquez another start or two,then try another option.I definitely hold on to him as long as he has options,not that many people,let alone Reds,have TOR tools.He's only 27 coming off Tommy John.He won 17 games the year before he got hurt.I think he will be an ace.He may just take longer to get it together.

well i agree to not get rid of him his trade value is at an alltime low. i have doubts he will be an ace but if he ever figures it out you got atleast a top 2-3order of the rotation pitcher.

and if he doesnt then well you werent getting much for him anyway and can let him walk.

Stray
06-28-2011, 11:51 AM
I think we miss Rhodes more than we think we do.


DFA Renteria :thumbup:

I don't know about that. Bray > Rhodes and nobody could have predicted Chapman's couple of months of wildness. He has much more long term value to this team than Rhodes, and Arthur hasn't exactly been great this year.