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View Full Version : Looking Ahead: The Schedule and Why a Move Should Be Made Soon



reds44
06-26-2011, 12:01 AM
Upcoming schedule:
1 @ Orioles
3 @ Tampa
3 vs. Indians
3 @ Cardinals
4 @ Brewers
3 vs. Cardinals
3 @ Pirates
3 vs. Braves


That takes us up to July 24th, a week before the trade deadline.

For those of you who need a reminder on the standings:

Central (GB)
Brewers --
Cardinals 2
Pirates 3
Reds 3

Wild Card
Atlanta--


Reds 4

There is 8 days between now and that stretch of games beginning. If the Reds are going to make a move to drastically improve the team, it would behoove them to do it in the next week before what will probably be the biggest stretch of games this season.

thatcoolguy_22
06-26-2011, 01:11 AM
Who should the target be? A SP will only get 3 starts in the final 16 games of that schedule. What position player can the Reds get that will make a big difference? I'm all for trading minor leaguers for big time players, but when the deals are made this far away from the trade deadline, it seems that better prospects are usually involved. That could just be me remembering some trades more clearly than others though.

The only reasonable acquisition I could think of would have to be in house, IMO. Cozart must be an upgrade over Renteria (maybe Janish as well) and I'm of the opinion that Yonder's bat can carry an attrocious LF glove. Hermida has been crushing everything in sight at Louisville, maybe he could come up? Outside of the organization though I'm not too sure where to go. I think we match up really well with Oakland. They have a few young SPs under control for a few years and no bats. I'm sure the price will be exorbiant, but a Gio trade could work amazingly well for both teams. The same scenario applies to SD with Latos. Position players, everyone has talked about the pros and cons of Reyes, but I don't like the idea myself as a pure rental. The OF will take care of itself (Kemp might be available, but I don't see it happening any time soon, I'm probably wrong though). Outside of him where is the improvement going to come from? CIN has a .742 OPS (5th in NL in LF), .735 in CF (I don't want to see Stubbs go anywhere), and an .861 in RF (thank you Jay Bruce). Here (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/of/sort/OPS) is the OF league leaders, and out of everyone with an OPS over .750, Only Beltran and Cuddyer look likely to move.

In summary, I don't see the big trade coming on the horizon that we are all hoping for.

Guacarock
06-26-2011, 02:49 AM
Here's the sequence of transactions I'd like to see occur ahead of the trading deadline:

1. Bring up D Train to pitch next Wednesday, June 29, against James Shields and the Rays in Tampa, sending Volquez back for more conditioning at Louisville. If D Train holds his own, and translates his current AAA success at the ML level, then we ride the rails and see where that leads us in July.

2. Just ahead of our July 7 series with the Brewers, we consummate a deal with the Orioles to bring JJ Hardy to Cincinnati as our starting SS and lead-off hitter. We pay the price: Alonso if Hardy is a rental, more if we can sign Hardy for a longer duration. This deal gets expanded to include Guthrie if the D Train experiment has already derailed.

3. We hang tough for the rest of July, perhaps swinging a deal for a bullpen arm if Arredondo or Chapman can't cut the mustard. Both have enormous potential, but both remain works in progress, so if we need to acquire a steady reliever, we make the move to do so. We could get Mota from the Giants for Hernandez, but it makes more sense to snag the Rays' Farnsworth for prospects. My rationale: 1. Farnsworth's 2.05 ERA eclipses Mota's 3.89 and falling ERA 2. We wouldn't have to give up Hernandez, who has delivered bigtime more than once for the Reds this season and might be the better tandem partner for Mesoraco than Hanigan in '12 3. Farnsworth could join Masset, Arredondo, Bray and Chapman in the hunt next season to replace Cordero as our closer, assuming we don't pick up Cordero's option, and I sincerely doubt we do, as lights-out and improved as Cordero has looked so far this year. Farnsworth has 16 saves in 17 opportunities this summer. He's making $2.6 million vs. Cordero's $12 million. If he loses out in the competition to succeed Cordero as closer, he could still be a dominant setup man or effective long reliever. He doesn't whiff batters as often as Masset or Chapman, but his 20 KOs vs. 2 walks this season suggests his command will not be lacking. This is what the good doctor ordered for the Reds' bullpen, not just for now, but also the forseeable future.

GAC
06-26-2011, 05:22 AM
No teams are making any moves because it's still a little too far out before the trade market starts to heat up after the AS game. So how can a team like the Reds make a move if a majority of other teams, especially those that may be "potential" trade partners, aren't being aggressive and still holding back? I think right now there is nothing more then a lot of "back room" talking going on between GMs (a fishing expedition). Take this for what it's worth (if it hasn't already been mentioned).....

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/2011/06/orioles_news_notes_and_opinion_6.html


You can bet Reds executives are watching the Orioles closely during this series because the two teams are actually a pretty good fit for a potential trade. The Reds could use an upgrade at shortstop over Paul Janish, and another solid veteran starting pitcher. J.J. Hardy and Jeremy Guthrie are two Orioles that will surely intrigue them. The Orioles need a young first baseman, which the Reds have in Yonder Alonso, who is blocked by Votto, the reigning National League MVP. They could also use a couple of more position prospects and the Reds have them in Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier among others. The trade market is still about two weeks from heating up, but Orioles President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail and Reds General Manager Walt Jocketty are very close friends. They spent time together yesterday and they’ve swung trades with each other before. It’s certainly something to keep an eye on.

Why do some think the O's will part with SS Hardy? The O's are having initial talks trying to extend him (2-3 yrs). Now if his agent believes Hardy can get a better deal as a FA, and the O's know they can't resign him, that could make him available. But why would we want to trade away prospects for a guy that could very easily walk in around 3 months?

LvJ
06-26-2011, 07:35 AM
I looked at the schedule earlier and was quite intrigued. That is a good stretch and simply means the Reds MUST start playing better ball very, very soon. That is going to make or break this team, IMO. Same can be said about the Pirates, Cardinals and Brewers.

I would love to make a trade for JJ Hardy and Guthrie. If it was possible to trade and sign both of them for 3 years, I'd do it. I hope something is done.

schroomytunes
06-26-2011, 09:36 AM
Moves I would look at the next few weeks:

1)DFA Renteria, bring up Cozart see what we have for the future!

2)Inquire about a SP, we need more stability out of our starters!
a) Gio Gonzales(OAK) LHP
b) Jeremy Guthrie(Bal) RHP
c) Clayton Richard(SD) LHP
d) Mike Pelphrey(NYM) RHP

--these guys would help stabilize the rotation, they are not ACES but they can be had with player's from our farm sytem w/o leaving the cupboards bare!
1)Cueto 2)Bailey 3)any of the above, I'd prefer a Lefty 4)Leake 5)Arroyo

--Volquez and Wood can be used as trade bait in particular packages, but not in the same one.

cinreds21
06-26-2011, 11:00 AM
I absolutely love Geo but I don't think the A's will deal him.

PuffyPig
06-26-2011, 11:10 AM
I don't think Guthrie is a particularly good pitcher, gives up a bunch of HR's, low K rate. I certainly don't think he's much of an improvement over the back end of our rotation. And I don't want to pay him big bucks on a 3 year contract.

Roy Tucker
06-26-2011, 11:57 AM
Cueto, Arroyo, Leake, Bailey, Volquez, Wood.

If the Reds trade for another starting arm, they are telling the back end of that set of guys that they don't have faith in them. I don't know it that is a good thing to do or a bad thing.

They trade for a guy like Guthrie, they'll be stuck with him in the rotation for the forseeable future. And a guy like that has the feel of the 2002-2008 era Haynes-Hamilton-Moehler-Wilson-Claussen-Milton-Hudson-Fogg-type pitcher. Which is just an endless turd of pitchers you can't build on and smacks of desperation.

Give me the guys the Reds have now with live arms and throw gas and I'll live with their ups and downs. The other kind of pitcher is just a guy I watch with my hand over my eyes peeking out and hoping someone doesn't hit a gapper or a line shot or one 500 ft.. Which happened all too often.

Blitz Dorsey
06-26-2011, 12:01 PM
Here's a Reds blog that opines no major moves will be made by the Reds because they can fill all their holes by turning to AAA:

www.threewaychili.com

mth123
06-26-2011, 12:44 PM
I hear all of the talk of Guthrie not being an upgrade and just don't get it. I think too many people are comparing Guthrie's downside to what everyone hopes the Red's group will be if it all works out. I hope it all comes up roses as well, but expectations should be based on more realistic likelihoods.

Cueto - Solid starter who has been improving and now in his 4th season has made another jump. I think he's clearly better than Guthrie now and fills one spot in the rotation.

Arroyo - Proven vet along the lines of Guthrie maybe a little better. He'll give innings, save the pen, prevent the younger guys from having to be pushed too far and usually provide a solid shot for his team to win.

After this it gets a little more iffy.

Leake - Has been very good IMO. Way better than I expected. Last year he blew up after 75 innings or so. Could it happen again? Does he have enough innings to get through the season? I'm guessing he'll need to be shut down by the end of August.

Bailey - Most talented arm in the bunch IMO, but he's had three shouder injuries in a 12 month period. I'm guessing his shoulder could explode at any time. The team needs to plan as if he's not available and if he is, take that as a great positive that gives them an advantage.

Volquez - Simply kills the staff with his high walk rates and pitch counts and short stints. He puts too much stress on the pen, requiring lots of innings and guys warming from nearly the beginning of the game. The starters the day before and the day after are also required to go longer than they should be in there. He's a drag on everything and probably shouldn't be in the rotation of a play-off hopeful. A rebuilding team looking to hit it big by harnessing his stuff can afford to give him a lot of rope. A team looking to win should look elsewhere.

Wood - The wild card here. He's been taking his second year lumps, but he's probably OK in the 5th spot for most teams. But with the iffy status of Homer, the questions about Leake making it through the season and the horror of EV, he could quickly become the number 3 by default (and I don't even want to think about who 4 and 5 would be).

From 2007 to 2011 Guthrie had one bad year in 2009. The other season's he's provided a ton of innings with ERAs of 3.83 or less. While its true his fly ball tendencies aren't perferct for GABP or the NL Central, its not like he's been pitchng in Oakland or Petco. Camden Yards is every bit the launching pad that GABP is and while places like Milwaukee, Houston and Wrigley also aren't the best for a fly ball guy, its not worse than the little league RF dimiensions in Yankee Stadium, the pop fly doubles machine called the Green Monster in Fenway or Home Run haven in Toronto. Consider he'd no longer have to face super powers in NY, Boston or Tampa Bay and would actually have a couple weak line-ups in Pittsburgh and Houston in his division while moving to a league with no DH, I'd say his 900+ innings of solid, dependable performance should provide a solid baseline for determining what to expect. The environment he's coming to should be a benefit and not a detriment. The parks are about the same, but the hitters are easier and he'll have the pitchers spot to help him out (and a better defense behind him to boot). I refuse to believe a guy who has an ERA in the high threes in the AL East can't help a team with so many rotation questions in the NL Central. We're not talking about a small sample size here.

PuffyPig
06-26-2011, 12:58 PM
IFrom 2007 to 2011 Guthrie had one bad year in 2009. The other season's he's provided a ton of innings with ERAs of 3.83 or less.

His xFIP has been generally in the mid-4's or higher each of those years, other than this year.

There is notrohng particularly wrong with Guthrie, other than he's likely a mid-4 ERA type pitcher who isn't much of an improvement over what we have.

Giving up an Alonso type prospect or more and signing him to an expensive liong term contract would be counter-productive to what the Reds are trying to accomplish over the next 3-4 seasons.

While it MIGHT make us better in 2011, the contract will hamstring after this season. It's simply bad place to spend our prospects and our money.

mth123
06-26-2011, 01:08 PM
His xFIP has been generally in the mid-4's or higher each of those years, other than this year.

There is notrohng particularly wrong with Guthrie, other than he's likely a mid-4 ERA type pitcher who isn't much of an improvement over what we have.

Giving up an Alonso type prospect or more and signing him to an expensive liong term contract would be counter-productive to what the Reds are trying to accomplish over the next 3-4 seasons.

While it MIGHT make us better in 2011, the contract will hamstring after this season. It's simply bad place to spend our prospects and our money.

Well, I agree about the contract. I would not sign him to an extension. The Reds would have him the rest of the year and coming into 2012 with him under contol. I'd deal Alonso for him straight up with some money coming our way. I'd deal Alonso and Volquez to get Guthrie and Hardy and some money (and throw in some fringe stuff like Jordan Smith and/or Chris Valaika if need be). I'd happily include Janish in a deal if Hardy is coming back.

I just think this team will struggle to find an adequate 5 by season's end. I'm not confident that Bailey holds up or that Leake will be available all year. I do think Guthrie is better than Volquez. I like Wood better long term, but Guthrie provides the team a better bet over the remainder of the season. Guthrie is basically another Arroyo and after watching how this team has consistently put its pen and following day's starters behind the 8 ball, I think another Arroyo type would have an impact beyond his individual numbers.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-26-2011, 01:13 PM
Any move - literally any move - that gets Volquez out of the rotation or off the team is completely fine with me.

OldXOhio
06-26-2011, 06:39 PM
Upcoming schedule:
1 @ Orioles
3 @ Tampa
3 vs. Indians
3 @ Cardinals
4 @ Brewers
3 vs. Cardinals
3 @ Pirates
3 vs. Braves


That takes us up to July 24th, a week before the trade deadline.

For those of you who need a reminder on the standings:

Central (GB)
Brewers --
Cardinals 2
Pirates 3
Reds 3

Wild Card
Atlanta--


Reds 4

There is 8 days between now and that stretch of games beginning. If the Reds are going to make a move to drastically improve the team, it would behoove them to do it in the next week before what will probably be the biggest stretch of games this season.

With the way this team is leaking oil, I don't see how they're above .500 going into the ASB. And as bad as this division is, I think you've got to be highly concerned about the Reds prospects if that were to occur. I just don't see these guys suddenly coming to life without some moves. Enough time has gone by to reasonably expect this is what we've got for 2011...mediocre rotation, streaky offense, good defense.

OldXOhio
06-26-2011, 06:40 PM
Any move - literally any move - that gets Volquez out of the rotation or off the team is completely fine with me.

Just understand that someone is going to pick him up and make him right, at least for a while. The thought of that turns my stomach as much as watching him pitch these days.

WebScorpion
06-28-2011, 12:21 AM
I'd really like to see what Cozart can do at this level, so I'd love to see him brought up and Renteria designated. I think our pitching is beginning to gel: I'm pretty happy with Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Arroyo, and I think one of Volquez, Wood, Willis will shape up enough to justify being a 5th starter. What I'd like to see is a move to shore up the left field defense and get a right-handed masher to fill the void between Votto and Bruce...to me that says Matt Kemp. Having him in the lineup would leave us free to live with Janish's weak bat or test run Cozart without any pressure to carry the team. I'd part with anyone left in AAA except Mesoraco to get him, but I don't expect any deal to be made this early. I'm patiently waiting to see what Walt will do and praying it completes this team. :pray:

OldXOhio
06-28-2011, 02:45 PM
I'd really like to see what Cozart can do at this level, so I'd love to see him brought up and Renteria designated. I think our pitching is beginning to gel: I'm pretty happy with Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Arroyo, and I think one of Volquez, Wood, Willis will shape up enough to justify being a 5th starter. What I'd like to see is a move to shore up the left field defense and get a right-handed masher to fill the void between Votto and Bruce...to me that says Matt Kemp. Having him in the lineup would leave us free to live with Janish's weak bat or test run Cozart without any pressure to carry the team. I'd part with anyone left in AAA except Mesoraco to get him, but I don't expect any deal to be made this early. I'm patiently waiting to see what Walt will do and praying it completes this team. :pray:

The Dodgers have already said they're not parting ways with Kemp.

Kc61
06-28-2011, 05:44 PM
To get back to the specific point of this thread. Reds play Milwaukee on the road last four days before ASB.

Make a deal to shore up the club before that series. Give the team a shot in the arm and take three of four from Brew Crew.

In particular, if a good starting pitcher is to be had, get him on board for that series.

Ok, back to the discussion.