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View Full Version : Halfway Point: Who wins the NL Central?



Homer Bailey
06-28-2011, 01:14 AM
80 games in for the Reds, one game short of the halfway point. Who do YOU think wins the NL Central? Standings as of 6/27:

Standings:
Brewers 44-35
Cardinals 41-38 (3 GB)
Reds 41-39 (3.5 GB)
Pirates 39-38 (4 GB)

Run differential:
Reds +41
Brewers +27
Cardinals +16
Pirates -12

Pythag:
Reds 43-36
Brewers 42-37
Cardinals 41-38
Pirates 37-40

So what is YOUR prediction. Who do you think walks away with the Central Division? I will go on record saying I truly believe the Reds will be the champions. I think the Reds best baseball is yet to come, and the fact that they have a +41 differential in what has seemed like such a mediocre season says a lot about the true talent level of this team.

reds44
06-28-2011, 01:17 AM
I've still got the Reds. I think they are the best team and they have the most ammo to make a big time move.

reds1869
06-28-2011, 01:31 AM
Cincinnati. The best team imo and still tons of room for improvement. I think the Reds will make a bold roster move or two and catch fire.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-28-2011, 01:40 AM
Milwaukee - the Brewers have the best hitters in the division and the best starting staff. I didn't think they would survive this brutal interleague stretch they're in, but not only are they surviving it they've expanded their lead over the Reds and Lards.

mth123
06-28-2011, 02:33 AM
I think the Reds have the best overall talent, but the Brewers have a better line-up and a better rotation. My biggest concern with the Reds is that they won't have enough effective pitchers left standing by season's end. Ineffectiveness (Volquez, Wood), injury (Bailey) and uncharted innings pitched waters (Leake) may reduce that vaunted depth to a 2 man show (Arroyo and Cueto and hope for a tornado???).

The Reds easily have the best 40 man roster and players 26 through 50 are most talented in Cincy's org as compared to the rest of the Division, but those guys only help this year if they earn a promotion to the 25 man roster or are packaged for an impact addition. The Reds have the talent to get most of what they need, but I just don't think they have the cash to actually pull the trigger.

757690
06-28-2011, 02:45 AM
I voted for the Pirates, but only so that Sir Charles wouldn't be lonely. ;)

AtomicDumpling
06-28-2011, 04:13 AM
I voted Brewers. I think their team as it stands now is equal in talent level to the Reds and Cardinals, but I think the Brewers are most likely to aggressively improve their team via trade this summer. The Brewers showed in the offseason they are going for it this year. They brought in Greinke and Marcum while the Reds stood pat. They are trying to win this year because they know that Fielder is likely gone after this year and their prime window of opportunity could be short. The Brewers will bring in stronger upgrades before the trade deadline and will pull away from the Reds and Cardinals.

I think the Brewers ownership has a stronger desire to win than Castellini does. I see no sense of urgency or competitive spirit coming from Reds management. They didn't make any moves last summer when we needed it, they didn't do anything to improve the team during the offseason and I don't think they will do anything significant this summer either.

757690
06-28-2011, 04:57 AM
I voted Brewers. I think their team as it stands now is equal in talent level to the Reds and Cardinals, but I think the Brewers are most likely to aggressively improve their team via trade this summer. The Brewers showed in the offseason they are going for it this year. They brought in Greinke and Marcum while the Reds stood pat. They are trying to win this year because they know that Fielder is likely gone after this year and their prime window of opportunity could be short. The Brewers will bring in stronger upgrades before the trade deadline and will pull away from the Reds and Cardinals.

I think the Brewers ownership has a stronger desire to win than Castellini does. I see no sense of urgency or competitive spirit coming from Reds management. They didn't make any moves last summer when we needed it, they didn't do anything to improve the team during the offseason and I don't think they will do anything significant this summer either.

The Brewers might have more desire to win, but...

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_z128xjhuEuE/SjVgxQvFMTI/AAAAAAAAAjM/zSAlBHjD4EE/s400/home+time+019.JPG

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2011, 06:11 AM
Very hard to say right now. I will say this, I don't think it will be the Cardinals or the Pirates.

The Brewers have a nice 3 game set against the Yanks in NY and so hopefully the Brewers will lose 2 of those games.

One important thing to remember is that the Reds have crushed the Brewers since the beginning of 2010 in head to head and they do get the Crew for 3 games right before the break. If the Crew breaks loose though, they are going to be hard to catch, so it's important to stay within I say 3 games of the Crew before the break. Hopefully it will be less, but 3 is a good number to shoot for and that series could be an important one. July is still a pretty tough month for the Reds while it's a pretty easy one for the Brewers.

RedsManRick
06-28-2011, 08:02 AM
I truly believe the Reds will win the division. Firstly, there's the run differential suggesting the Reds have played the best baseball thus far, despite the record. But for me, the real difference is depth. It's a long season. The Reds have the depth to both promote from within or acquire impact talent in the trade market. The same cannot be said about either the Cardinals or especially the Brewers.

If the Brewers stay fully healthy, they're going to be real tough. But they're only 1 injury from being in trouble.

Homer Bailey
06-28-2011, 10:45 AM
Wow, 32 votes and zero for the Cardinals. I figured they'd finish 3rd in this poll, but that really shocks me.

Unassisted
06-28-2011, 11:11 AM
Brewers. Their ownership went all in on FAs, to the extent that a small market team can. The team seems to grasp that it's now or never.

Neither the Reds nor Cardinals seem to be able to put together any sustained success. IMO, the Pirates will fade after the ASB.

This is the Brewers' year.

OldXOhio
06-28-2011, 11:28 AM
Milwaukee, but I do find it interesting how many on here are writing off the Cardinals. Despite their flaws in pitching and defense, that's a pretty solid offense when healthy. They also have an aggressive FO that I would guess will be active in the next 30 days.

Ghosts of 1990
06-28-2011, 11:53 AM
Brewers. Their ownership went all in on FAs, to the extent that a small market team can. The team seems to grasp that it's now or never.

Neither the Reds nor Cardinals seem to be able to put together any sustained success. IMO, the Pirates will fade after the ASB.

This is the Brewers' year.

My thoughts exactly. I feel the same way about them now as I did before the season. They're the best team in the division. Loaded lineup, underrated rotation, and decent bullpen with a closer that has worked out nicely for them.

Braun and Fielder are just so consistent in the middle of that lineup. it's a 1-2 punch we cannot match.

REDREAD
06-28-2011, 12:08 PM
I'm picking the Brewers.

For whatever reason, things just aren't working out for our Reds this year.
It happens.. it's hard to repeat.
I am guessing that continued inconsistency from the pitching staff is ultimately going to stop the Reds.

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2011, 12:13 PM
I went with the Brewers...I hope I'm wrong though. The Reds front office doesn't seem to care about this year. It's been obvious for months now that shortstop is a huge black hole yet they continue to do nothing about it. They also had a subpar offseason while the Brewers went out and landed two top-of-rotation starters.

dfs
06-28-2011, 12:14 PM
.....I would like to put off the question till the all-star break.

I know there are no "must win" series this early in the year, but it's getting late for it to be considered early in the year.

If they go into Busch and clean up and then take care of things with the brew crew, the year looks very different than if they go in flat and go 2-5 during that stretch.

_Sir_Charles_
06-28-2011, 12:17 PM
I'm sticking with what I started with. I think we win even without a trade. We're the one team that has yet to even make a small run. We'll get on a roll at some point and take over the top spot again.

Injuries, as usual, will impact the race...but we're the most able to deal with them effectively by FAR. That will also help our cause.

Sea Ray
06-28-2011, 12:20 PM
It's the close games that're killing them (the Reds). They're 11-16 in one run games. Does anyone know what their record is in two run games? I'd venture a guess that it's sub .500 as well. If that evens out in the 2nd half it'd be a big help

bucksfan2
06-28-2011, 12:35 PM
It's the close games that're killing them (the Reds). They're 11-16 in one run games. Does anyone know what their record is in two run games? I'd venture a guess that it's sub .500 as well. If that evens out in the 2nd half it'd be a big help

The Reds win those 50/50 games they win the division.

I think it comes down to the Reds and Brewers with the Cards playing the spoiler. I think the Pirates will begin to fade shortly and the Cards are a poorly put together club that will continue to be devastated by injuries.

Blitz Dorsey
06-28-2011, 09:00 PM
Beermakers. They are a better team than us this year. Not in all areas of course (our bullpen, defense and other things are better) but overall they are better IMO.

I like our future a lot better than theirs though. I don't think they'll be able to re-sign the Prince.

MikeThierry
06-29-2011, 12:35 AM
Who do you all think I picked? haha

I'm not sold on the Brewers right now. I have always felt that the winner of this division will be the team that plays the best on the road. Both the Reds and Cardinals have not had a great month of June yet are within striking distance because the Brewers are so incompetent on the road. Until they can prove they can be a winning ball club in that area, I can't pick them to win the division.

The Reds have the potential to run away with this division with a couple of moves but their management seems hesitant, for some reason, to make a move. They have potential upside in their pitching rotation so they could still take control of the division.

There are two things the Cardinals have that might put them at an advantage compared to the rest of the division once late July and early August hits. They will be getting players back from the crazy amount of injuries they have had to deal with. Getting Pujols back in the lineup at the end of July will be almost like a free agent move. Secondly, the Cardinals organization has shown in recent history that they aren't afraid to make a move. If the Cards make a move to solidify the bullpen with someone like Heath Bell, they become an even more dangerous team. There are already signs that they are trying to fix the issue by releasing people like Miguel Batista and giving young guys a chance to fill those roles.

If I were to choose right now, I would have to say the Reds but I would not sleep on the Cards at all. If the Reds do not make a move or don't show some level of consistency with their offense, I think the Cardinals take the division by the end of the year.

I still also think the Wild Card will come out of the NL Central this year so a second place finish might not be the worst thing in the world for any of the three teams.

Unassisted
06-29-2011, 12:54 AM
Getting Pujols back in the lineup at the end of July will be almost like a free agent move.
If I were looking for reasons to pick the Cards, I wouldn't want to bank on Pujols being completely recovered as a hitter so soon after suffering a serious wrist injury. That's a big reason for my low expectations for them. I could see the other pieces of your scenario coming true, though.

MikeThierry
06-29-2011, 12:57 AM
If I were looking for reasons to pick the Cards, I wouldn't want to bank on Pujols being completely recovered as a hitter so soon after suffering a serious wrist injury. That's a big reason for my low expectations for them. I could see the other pieces of your scenario coming true, though.

Reading the different reports and opinions from doctors, Pujols broke his forearm in the right place (if there was such a thing). It wasn't like the Lee broken wrist. If anything, Pujols got lucky on that injury if that makes sense.

corkedbat
06-29-2011, 04:13 AM
I'm holding off on voting. This team has played some really bad ball in spurts and I've got questions about them going forward, At the same time though, despite the way they've played, they are still only 3.5 behind the beer boys.

I'd like to see Uncle Walt make at least one major move to shore this team up before the interleague deadline. A TOR starter would be nice but don't know who it would be. The next best thing would be a middle of the order bat for leftfield who is a legitimate OFer. I'd also like to see them dip into the farm some (especially Cozart).

I'll save my actual prediction until after the deadline though.

Ron Madden
06-29-2011, 05:01 AM
I'm holding off on voting. This team has played some really bad ball in spurts and I've got questions about them going forward, At the same time though, despite the way they've played, they are still only 3.5 behind the beer boys.

I'd like to see Uncle Walt make at least one major move to shore this team up before the interleague deadline. A TOR starter would be nice but don't know who it would be. The next best thing would be a middle of the order bat for leftfield who is a legitimate OFer. I'd also like to see them dip into the farm some (especially Cozart).

I'll save my actual prediction until after the deadline though.


Do you forecast the weather on any of our local TV stations? ;)

Roy Tucker
06-29-2011, 08:49 AM
I'm starting to think this isn't the Reds' year. I think they used up all their good luck last year.

They seem to have this knack of playing a good, hard-fought game but lose it. I don't think winning one-run games is luck and the odds will even out. I think its like chess and you have an end-game and the Reds don't seem to have a lock-down end-game, be it offense, defense, bullpen, or getting in a hole from a starter. They all seem to take turns.

cumberlandreds
06-29-2011, 09:04 AM
I voted for the Brewers by default.
I think the Cards have had too many injuries and the jury is out on how well Pujols comes back.
The Pirates just won't have enough to pull it off. I think their pitching will fade down the stretch and their hitting isn't anything to write home about.
The Reds just can't seem to string together many wins. They can't get that big hit or big out when they need it the most to get a good winning streak going. If they can find "it" again they can pull off another division win but I don't know if they will find "it".
The Brewers have the hitting,starting pitching and the bullpen has been better than expected. If they can win a few on the road they may just run away with the divison. But I'm not sure they will magically turn that around. They also have seemingly built this season for a run at the title. So this may be their one season of opportunity. It will go down to the last week but I think this may just be the Brewers year.

RedLegsToday
06-29-2011, 10:18 AM
I went with the Reds. I think they still have a nice run in them. Maybe they'll wait until September, go crazy, then roll through the playoffs, a la the 2010 Giants. Eventhough this season is driving me mad so far, I could live with that. :thumbup:

Oh, and thanks all, for voting me into the Old Red Guard. :beerme:

kaldaniels
06-29-2011, 10:38 AM
I'm starting to think this isn't the Reds' year. I think they used up all their good luck last year.

They seem to have this knack of playing a good, hard-fought game but lose it. I don't think winning one-run games is luck and the odds will even out. I think its like chess and you have an end-game and the Reds don't seem to have a lock-down end-game, be it offense, defense, bullpen, or getting in a hole from a starter. They all seem to take turns.

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on how 2010 was a lucky year for the Reds.

Sea Ray
06-29-2011, 11:01 AM
I'm starting to think this isn't the Reds' year. I think they used up all their good luck last year.

They seem to have this knack of playing a good, hard-fought game but lose it. I don't think winning one-run games is luck and the odds will even out. I think its like chess and you have an end-game and the Reds don't seem to have a lock-down end-game, be it offense, defense, bullpen, or getting in a hole from a starter. They all seem to take turns.

These one run loss games are maddening. I might even venture to say it's gotten into their heads

Tony Cloninger
06-29-2011, 11:03 AM
They are much more confident (The FO) in a team that had just 1 winning season just least year....than they should be, without making any tweaks to the roster.

Are we going to hear at the end of the year how...."I thought we were better than we were." "We probably should have made some moves but we figured things would turn around."

Reds Freak
06-29-2011, 11:05 AM
They are much more confident (The FO) in a team that had just 1 winning season just least year....than they should be, without making any tweaks to the roster.

Are we going to hear at the end of the year how...."I thought we were better than we were." "We probably should have made some moves but we figured things would turn around."

How many big moves are made in June? Are any other teams making moves right now? You can't force a trade to happen just because you need a piece. Teams are still figuring out if they're buyers or sellers. We'll see what happens in the next month.

Tony Cloninger
06-29-2011, 11:13 AM
How many big moves are made in June? Are any other teams making moves right now? You can't force a trade to happen just because you need a piece. Teams are still figuring out if they're buyers or sellers. We'll see what happens in the next month.

I said tweaks......and I meant getting someone up from AAA....you know, the usual....we need Cozart up here. I think they should also re-institute the June 15th trading deadline as well. How about July 15th? Put your money where your mouth is.

Homer Bailey
08-09-2011, 06:36 PM
I was wrong.

RANDY IN INDY
08-09-2011, 06:44 PM
Don't feel bad. Fooled a lot of us, Homer. Just an ugly season for the Redlegs.

Homer Bailey
08-09-2011, 07:02 PM
Don't feel bad. Fooled a lot of us, Homer. Just an ugly season for the Redlegs.

Oh, I don't feel bad. It's just the first time I've ever been wrong about anything. More shocked than anything.

:cool: