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Guacarock
06-28-2011, 04:33 PM
We've debated who we need to acquire to improve our bid to enter the playoffs a second year running. Should it be a starting pitcher? A LF with clout? A SS who doesn't have a noodle for a bat? We've identified the targets, speculated on what each might cost and argued long and hard about whether we need an MVP or ace, whether simply solid players might do, whether one acquisition or a mix of ringers are required, whether they can be rentals, etc., etc.

What hasn't entered into our debate as of yet? What if we aren't buyers at all? What if, heaven forbid, we are sellers? I realize that all of us would rather be hopeful, than Debbie Downers, but the reality is: One 4- or 5- game losing skid and we might suddenly be out of the hunt, not only well off the pace of the surging Brewers, but also buried behind the flailing Cards and smoke-and-mirror Pirates.

If that happens, all of our speculation over trade targets could be rendered obsolete. In the blink of an eye, we would then turn from shoppers into sellers. My challenge to you: What happens then? Who among our roster of players might we make available to competing teams? Who would attract the most attention? The likely suitors? The possible returns? And would you pull the trigger?

I have some thoughts along these lines, but I open the floor to all of you first. Don't by shy. If you think we can ship Edgar Renteria off the Nationals for Bryce Harper, have at it.

Homer Bailey
06-28-2011, 04:38 PM
Has a team with a top 2 run differential in the league ever been sellers?

Hap
06-28-2011, 04:43 PM
People whom do not have a foreseeable long-term future on the club and whom also could fill a role on any of several other teams in contention:

Cordero
Renteria
Gomes
Lewis
Cairo
Arredondo

Thinking radically outside the box:

Phillips and Votto...........because realistically either one could be making huge $$$$ for someone else in the somewhat near future and either one would bring several nice prospects in return.

No one wants Volquez or Bailey because of durability issues.

Everyone will want Leake, Wood, and Cueto, but they will not be available.

Guacarock
06-28-2011, 04:45 PM
Has a team with a top 2 run differential in the league ever been sellers?

Don't know if that's happened before or not, but if we get to July 15, and we're in fourth place and mired 8-10 games behind the Brewers, we could well become sellers -- no matter what our run differential. It's not the run differential that gets anyone into the playoffs, but the differential in your W-L record vs. those of your divisional rivals.

klw
06-28-2011, 04:52 PM
I don't think the Reds would end up as pure sellers but rather a blend where they move someone like Ramon but also look to do a Rolen like move for the following season. There are not many parts that realistically would be moveable that would be considered for a move. The exceptions would be Phillips if no LTC is considered possible, same for Cordero. I could also see Arroyo being moved to Boston but nowhere else. They are a bit SP shy and he would be okay with that (I imagine) but nowhere else would take on his $ most likely.

Ghosts of 1990
06-28-2011, 04:55 PM
I've been saying it a long time, but I think Francisco Cordero will be moved if we don't start winning. He'll be the first guy shipped out. Especially with the way he has performed this year.

AmarilloRed
06-28-2011, 05:02 PM
Volquez would be getting more in arbitration, and he's turned down a LTC once. I'd see what we could get for him in a trade.

Guacarock
06-28-2011, 05:02 PM
I've been saying it a long time, but I think Francisco Cordero will be moved if we don't start winning. He'll be the first guy shipped out. Especially with the way he has performed this year.

Yes, the demand ought to be high for Cordero's services, given how well he has performed this year. Who would be his logical suitors? And which prime prospects might we get back in return if we agreed to pick up, say, $2-$3 million of the lingering balance due to our closer?

schroomytunes
06-28-2011, 05:33 PM
I dont think we will be sellers but guys that we could afford to move for prospects and guys that are deemed worth enough for others are:

1)Cordero- is a FA at the end of the year and has been lights out.
2)Arredondo-teams always looking for MR
3)Ramon Hernandez-with Mesoraco tearing up AAA he can be moved.
4)Gomes-would fill a bat off the bench, DH role in the AL.
5)Renteria-someone looking for a backup SS,Postseason experienced vet.

these guys are what I would try to move if we become out of it with Hernandez and Cordero netting us the most in return!

RedsManRick
06-28-2011, 06:22 PM
No one wants Volquez or Bailey because of durability issues.

I think you'd find buyers for both of those guys, but you wouldn't come close to getting the value of their upside.

I think Cordero and Hernandez are the only guys who don't fit in to the plans and who could bring solid value.

reds44
06-28-2011, 06:32 PM
I could realistically see Hernandez going because of Mesoraco. He'd be dealt for help right away though.

The Reds won't be sellers.

Tony Cloninger
06-28-2011, 11:27 PM
What about what the CHI WS did in 1997 or so....when they called it "Raising the White Flag deals" and in 2 years were back in the playoffs?

It would be crazy to do it though when you are trying to rebuild your fan base again.

VR
06-28-2011, 11:36 PM
Middle of the road approach.....

I believe Hanigan has peaked, it might be a ripe time to move him to get value in return.

Ondrusek and his spiffed up ERA might be enticing for someone as well.

Superdude
06-28-2011, 11:56 PM
This isn't really a team built to sell even if we do fall out of the race. Hernandez would probably bring a good return, but other than that, I don't see any other realistic trade candidates fetching more than peanuts.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-28-2011, 11:58 PM
Volquez would be getting more in arbitration, and he's turned down a LTC once. I'd see what we could get for him in a trade.

For Volquez, I'd take six hot wings at Buffalo Wild Wings and a case of Yuengling. Nothing more.

Tony Cloninger
06-29-2011, 12:10 AM
This isn't really a team built to sell even if we do fall out of the race. Hernandez would probably bring a good return, but other than that, I don't see any other realistic trade candidates fetching more than peanuts.


MMMMMM.....Peanuts.

Ron Madden
06-29-2011, 04:34 AM
People whom do not have a foreseeable long-term future on the club and whom also could fill a role on any of several other teams in contention:

Cordero
Renteria
Gomes
Lewis
Cairo
Arredondo

Thinking radically outside the box:

Phillips and Votto...........because realistically either one could be making huge $$$$ for someone else in the somewhat near future and either one would bring several nice prospects in return.

No one wants Volquez or Bailey because of durability issues.

Everyone will want Leake, Wood, and Cueto, but they will not be available.

I hope it doesn't come to that point but if it does , I agree with this post from top to bottom.

HokieRed
06-29-2011, 08:29 AM
Don't agree on Bailey. I think you'll find plenty of people willing to take a chance on his upside, though he'll fetch far less value than he might have earlier (or, IMO, will in the future). The moment to trade Volquez, however, is, IMO, unfortunately past.

Benihana
06-29-2011, 10:10 AM
The only player worth "selling" on this team is Hernandez and maybe Cordero.

Gomes, Lewis, and company will not fetch anything in a trade.

I would not trade Votto, BP, or the rest of the core, because I think this team is built to compete in 2012 regardless of what happens the rest of the way this season. They will still need to supplement in this offseason though, or we'll be facing the same problems this time next year.

Hoosier Red
06-29-2011, 10:23 AM
The only player worth "selling" on this team is Hernandez and maybe Cordero.

Gomes, Lewis, and company will not fetch anything in a trade.

I would not trade Votto, BP, or the rest of the core, because I think this team is built to compete in 2012 regardless of what happens the rest of the way this season. They will still need to supplement in this offseason though, or we'll be facing the same problems this time next year.

One thing to consider with Hernandez is that even though a number of teams could use a catcher, it seems like it's fairly uncommon for a contending team to deal for a catcher in mid season. It just seems like it's too much effort to get a team's pitchers and catcher's on the same page.

I'm sure there are many that I'm forgetting, but aside from Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza, I can't remember a catcher being traded to a contender.

Also, Rodriguez had a reputation as a defensive stud(or at least did early in his career,) so it may have been assumed that his transition would go easier. Piazza had a reputation on the other end of the spectrum which meant whatever team acquired him simply accepted that the defense could suffer.

Hernandez isn't at either extreme which might make it tougher to assess his value mid season.

nate
06-29-2011, 10:24 AM
As always, I'd trade anyone as long as it results in a net improvement. The real question is, for how long? This season? The next? Trading someone like Votto would have to have returns that help the club for a long time.

Guacarock
06-29-2011, 10:59 AM
As improved as he's been this season, I don't see a lot of potential takers for Cordero. The majority of contenders have closers who have notched up more saves and Ks.

One team that might be interested: the Texas Rangers. Their closer, Feliz has only snagged 15 saves in 19 opportunities, and there's talk of him being converted back into a starter next season, owing to the weakness of the Rangers' rotation. So there could be a role for Cordero to fill, not only for 2011 but also beyond. In addition, it does seem like the Rangers like having old dudes in the bullpen. Cordero could feel right at home with Rhodes and Oliver.

Who could we get back, assuming we ponied up $2-$3 million to cover Cordero's salary? I'd take a gamble on taming the Rangers' Engel Beltre, their mucho talented but hot-tempered outfielder suspended a couple of a times for fighting with fans and opposing players. As a a throw-in, just in case Beltre fails Anger Management, I'd ask for one of the Rangers' young lefty pitchers.

Here's Beltre, with the Bakersfield Blaze, taunting the Visalia Rawhides.

http://youtu.be/OQVJI6ycFXw

CrackerJack
06-29-2011, 11:10 AM
Happy with what we got. No need to trade anyone until we get the oxcart out of the ditch. We'll go to war with who we have.