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View Full Version : Would you be satisfied if the Reds were at their Pythag?



mth123
07-02-2011, 08:02 AM
It has been pointed out by many that the Reds record of 1 game over .500 is not representative of the talent level of the roster. I do agree that the Reds are a better team than one playing .506 baseball. The Red's run differential suggests a record of 45-38. Many point to that as a sign that everything is OK and no need for the disappointment that has gone with the season so far. 45-38 is a .542 winning percentage and projects to about 88 wins over a full season.

So I ask the board is that good enough for you? IMO, an 88 win team is a pretender. I think of a championship contender as a 95+ win team, I know we've been win starved around here for a long time and winning 88 games and probably coming out on top of this weak divison seems like a good year, but for me, that seems a huge waste of one of the prime years remaining in this team's window of contention. The vaunted depth of position prospects is not going to keep this team at this level for the next decade or two. Votto's deal runs out in 2013, Phillips is probably gone after 2012. Rolen and Arroyo are already in decline. Cueto is at the top of his game and likely won't get much better. Bailey's injuries make him a question mark. Cordero's contract has been an albatross, but when he leaves, there really will be a drop-off in the pen. All the others will get real expensive. Mesoraco will probably help, but the catcher spot is already a strength. Cozart will probably move the shortstop position from horrid to average or slightly below, but several positions will take a step backward. The Reds next wave has talent, but, IMO, not as much as the guys they are replacing.

IMO, its time to push for the rings. In the next year or two this team's talent level will be at its peak. While the Reds can probably avoid a repeat of the lost decade, the next generation is not as good as the key guys who will be leaving town or fading away. Time to make a move or two. Get that 88 win roster into the mid 90s level. Tomorrow is already here.

Tony Cloninger
07-02-2011, 09:50 AM
I have said this before....they remind me of the 1986-88 Reds.....look good on paper. Combo of young and old (More younger in 1988)....but always missing something to take them over the top.

In the end...a huge waste of talent and of opportunity to trade some of the young talent in order to get better. Sure they won in 1990. They also should have won a few more divisional titles if they had tried to bring in another pitcher via trade or FA (1986-87)

Some of these scouts must have told Walt that Cozart or any of the others would not be that much better than what they have....and if no one is biting on trades, Walt cannot do much there.

I also think Dusty is really coddling some of these guys. I am tired of hearing of how they are so close to busting out. Quit talking about it and do it.
It almost sounds like how Carson Palmer would say after every loss that piled up last year... "We are so close to really taking off."

kpresidente
07-02-2011, 11:48 AM
OK. Whattaya gonna do? To be that kind of team we need a big RH bat and an ace. They don't exactly grow on trees. I look at the farm and see guys like Alonso, Grandal, Frazier, etc. They're decent prospects but you can't trade any one of them for a star player. You need top-20 prospects to do that. Look at what Arizona wanted for Upton, and he wouldn't have been good enough to put us over the top. It's not like you just choose to become that kind of team. If so, teams would be doing it all the time.

REDREAD
07-02-2011, 12:34 PM
No offense to anyone, but yes, I would be happy with an 88 game winning season this year.
That probably puts us in the playoffs.

Something is definitely missing this year.

But let's go to fantasy land.. What if last season we did the following.. I am going to go by popular wishes over the winter. I am going to list their WAR so far.. I realize WAR is not perfect, but this is a quick and dirty calculation of the impact.. I am going to take the difference in WAR and multiply by two, since the season is about half over. I am going to generous and assume that the Reds would have called up a minor league OF that would give comparable production to Lewis (thus his WAR does not come into play) The majority of people on the board were happy with Janish (-0.3 WAR) at SS over the winter.

Fantasy offseason..
Traded away or did not sign:
Leake (1.2), Renturia (0) , Gomes (1.4), Lewis

Added:
Cliff Lee (3.6), Josh Willingham (0.2)

That's only a delta of 1.2 WAR.. over the season, that projects to 2.4 more wins.. Another popular target, David Jesus (0.3 WAR) really wouldn't have made a difference either.

So I guess the point of this entire exercise is that the Team is just failing to win games.. Adding that desirable LF bat and Cliff Lee in the offseason would
have not made that much of a difference, if your happiness point is 95 wins.
A lot of players that played well last season are just not getting it done.. IMO, not fair to expect Walt to know that he had to turn over 10 players over the offseason..

mth123
07-02-2011, 01:48 PM
OK. Whattaya gonna do? To be that kind of team we need a big RH bat and an ace. They don't exactly grow on trees. I look at the farm and see guys like Alonso, Grandal, Frazier, etc. They're decent prospects but you can't trade any one of them for a star player. You need top-20 prospects to do that. Look at what Arizona wanted for Upton, and he wouldn't have been good enough to put us over the top. It's not like you just choose to become that kind of team. If so, teams would be doing it all the time.

The Reds chose to sit and do nothing. I actually think a LH power guy to platoon with Gomes would be enough while giving Cozart a shot instead of this on-going charade at SS. Then package three or four guys for the pitcher we need. An ace would be ideal, but contrary to poular opinion there are lots of starters in the majors who would be upgrades to this rotation. There is no guarantee, but at least they'd be taking a shot a winning instead of resigning themselves to be an also ran.

I like the Reds prospects too. I really do, but this collection of players can is in position to win, but isn't enough to win. Some changes are needed. Make them. This is starting to look too much like these guys are going to be kept around without a job until their value drops. The Reds already held onto Chris Valaika too long. IMO, the same mistake is in progress with Alonso, Sappelt and a few others.

dougdirt
07-02-2011, 04:14 PM
The Reds chose to sit and do nothing. I actually think a LH power guy to platoon with Gomes would be enough while giving Cozart a shot instead of this on-going charade at SS. Then package three or four guys for the pitcher we need. An ace would be ideal, but contrary to poular opinion there are lots of starters in the majors who would be upgrades to this rotation. There is no guarantee, but at least they'd be taking a shot a winning instead of resigning themselves to be an also ran.

I like the Reds prospects too. I really do, but this collection of players can is in position to win, but isn't enough to win. Some changes are needed. Make them. This is starting to look too much like these guys are going to be kept around without a job until their value drops. The Reds already held onto Chris Valaika too long. IMO, the same mistake is in progress with Alonso, Sappelt and a few others.

So where do the Reds get the money to pay a left handed power hitter to platoon with Gomes and an Ace or even an average regular starter? You are talking at minimum 5-20 million extra dollars.

Will M
07-02-2011, 08:17 PM
if the team was on pace for 88 wins i would not be happy because i feel that the team blew it last off season. lets say that 'on paper' the 2011 team is an 88 win team. then they should have spent the offseason trying to make it a 94 win team & hoped for a better matchup/better luck in the post season. instead they chose to hope for improvement from within (aka the cheap route) not realizing some folks would fall back from their 2010 seasons. i had the team at ~90 wins prior to Homer & Johnny starting the season on the dl. I then revised it to 85 wins. even at my 90 win projection and the makeup of the team i felt we were looking at a 3 team fight for the NL Central followed by an unceremonious exit from the post season if we made it. as a fan i want more.

757690
07-02-2011, 09:29 PM
No, I would not be satisfied. Which is why I will be extremely disappointed if the Reds stand pat.

They clearly need a bat, a new spark to light up the offense.

The starting pitching has been fine for the past month, and looks to get even better now if Bailey can stay healthy, and Chapman is back on track.

But contending teams, no matter their position, get some fresh blood midway through the season. It is a necessity. It could be someone from the minors, or via a trade, but the Reds absolutely need to improve the team they have now.

REDblooded
07-03-2011, 01:23 AM
I really don't enjoy watching this year's team... That's dangerous territory for a ballclub trying to rebuild its fanbase.

mth123
07-03-2011, 07:11 AM
NM

traderumor
07-03-2011, 10:00 AM
I really don't enjoy watching this year's team... That's dangerous territory for a ballclub trying to rebuild its fanbase.Assuming you're representative of the fanbase.

Tony Cloninger
07-03-2011, 10:15 AM
Assuming you're representative of the fanbase.

“Right now, I don’t think anybody’s too worried,” right-hander Homer Bailey, Saturday’s starting pitcher, said. “We’ve still got another half to play. I know you guys like to jump the gun, but we’re only halfway through. The whole second half could go in our favor.”

Do you really want to hear this from your team's players? Hey, what me worry? Nothing to see here people, everything is fine.

kaldaniels
07-03-2011, 10:28 AM
“Right now, I don’t think anybody’s too worried,” right-hander Homer Bailey, Saturday’s starting pitcher, said. “We’ve still got another half to play. I know you guys like to jump the gun, but we’re only halfway through. The whole second half could go in our favor.”

Do you really want to hear this from your team's players? Hey, what me worry? Nothing to see here people, everything is fine.

I'm fine with that answer.

kaldaniels
07-03-2011, 10:30 AM
The question in this thread title is a loaded question. Yes, I would be happy if all NL Central teams were at their pythag.

Tony Cloninger
07-03-2011, 10:44 AM
I'm fine with that answer.


So things could go their way...only beacuse they have not gone their way in the 1st half. Great strategy.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
07-03-2011, 11:05 AM
So things could go their way...only beacuse they have not gone their way in the 1st half. Great strategy.I didn't read his comment that way at all. My wife does that to me a lot. I say something, she finds a way to get upset about what I said.. I walk away confused.

mth123
07-03-2011, 11:11 AM
The question in this thread title is a loaded question. Yes, I would be happy if all NL Central teams were at their pythag.

I don't think its a loaded question at all. If the Reds win the central with 88 wins (now Pythag has them at a projected 87), its just another season of being the medium sized fish in a pond of guppies and I'd consider being happy with that aiming pretty darned low. They have the MVP, a former top prospect in baseball in RF and another in the rotation along with some multiple time All Star vets at 2B, 3B, Closer and Starting Pitcher. The window for this collection of players will close as two or three of those guys fade away or leave town by 2013. They have some nice young players coming along, but chances of them being as good as the guys they'll be replacing are pretty low IMO. This year and next are about as good as it will get with this team and if high 80s wins and pretender status is all we get, then it does not bode well for the future. This team needs to capitalize on its talent by adding what's missing with the attitude that less than at least one World Series ring by the end of 2013 is a failure. Unfortunately, I think the braintrust has the same contentment level with "pretty good" that many fans seem to have and doesn't seem motivated to take it to the next level.

Tony Cloninger
07-03-2011, 11:17 AM
I didn't read his comment that way at all. My wife does that to me a lot. I say something, she finds a way to get upset about what I said.. I walk away confused.


Then what did you read in his comment? I am not your wife ...so you don't need to walk away confused. I read it as it has to turn around eventually....for no other reason than we are due. I am due to make a lot of money soon beacuse I work really hard....does not mean it will just happen.

Tony Cloninger
07-03-2011, 11:18 AM
I don't think its a loaded question at all. If the Reds win the central with 88 wins (now Pythag has them at a projected 87), its just another season of being the medium sized fish in a pond of guppies and I'd consider being happy with that aiming pretty darned low. They have the MVP, a former top prospect in baseball in RF and another in the rotation along with some multiple time All Star vets at 2B, 3B, Closer and Starting Pitcher. The window for this collection of players will close as two or three of those guys fade away or leave town by 2013. They have some nice young players coming along, but chances of them being as good as the guys they'll be replacing are pretty low IMO. This year and next are about as good as it will get with this team and if high 80s wins and pretender status is all we get, then it does not bode well for the future. This team needs to capitalize on its talent by adding what's missing with the attitude that less than at least one World Series ring by the end of 2013 is a failure. Unfortunately, I think the braintrust has the same contentment level with "pretty good" that many fans seem to have and doesn't seem motivated to take it to the next level.


I think they would be happy being the Twins of the NL Central....and hoping for things to roll their way in the playoffs.

nate
07-03-2011, 02:10 PM
“Right now, I don’t think anybody’s too worried,” right-hander Homer Bailey, Saturday’s starting pitcher, said. “We’ve still got another half to play. I know you guys like to jump the gun, but we’re only halfway through. The whole second half could go in our favor.”

Do you really want to hear this from your team's players? Hey, what me worry? Nothing to see here people, everything is fine.

I want my players as focused as the band on the Titanic.

vaticanplum
07-03-2011, 05:56 PM
This team needs to capitalize on its talent by adding what's missing with the attitude that less than at least one World Series ring by the end of 2013 is a failure. Unfortunately, I think the braintrust has the same contentment level with "pretty good" that many fans seem to have and doesn't seem motivated to take it to the next level.

This is National League syndrome, I think. The level of competition is not as high as it is across the AL a lot of the time, and I really do believe a lot of NL managers still espouse the "we play pure baseball" (ie. non-DH) mentality, even subconsciously, which gives them a sense of dangerous, sedentary self-satisfaction. They aim to win the division, get in the playoffs, and go from there. They do not aim to be the best team or, from the outset, to win the World Series.

There's something to this, because as the 2006 Cardinals proved, it is often anybody's game at playoff time, with momentum playing a role that it doesn't in the regular season. And a lot of managers will spout the one-game-at-a-time mentality in press conferences, we're just focusing on the division right now, blah blah blah. But it's kind of bullcrap, I think. The Yankees aren't ever trying to do anything but win the WS. The "anybody's game in the playoffs" can, conversely, end up being an excuse for subpar teams that squeak into the playoffs and don't perform, which fans forgive because they're just happy their team is there. And I agree that this year's Reds in particular have the makeup to focus on being a powerhouse, because the window is limited, and if they just focus on getting into the playoffs this year alone, they will undershoot. Last year I felt differently. But the team doesn't really seem to be moving in a direction of evolving beyond last year's mentality.

mth123
07-03-2011, 06:02 PM
This is National League syndrome, I think. The level of competition is not as high as it is across the AL a lot of the time, and I really do believe a lot of NL managers still espouse the "we play pure baseball" (ie. non-DH) mentality, even subconsciously, which gives them a sense of dangerous, sedentary self-satisfaction. They aim to win the division, get in the playoffs, and go from there. They do not aim to be the best team or, from the outset, to win the World Series.

There's something to this, because as the 2006 Cardinals proved, it is often anybody's game at playoff time, with momentum playing a role that it doesn't in the regular season. And a lot of managers will spout the one-game-at-a-time mentality in press conferences, we're just focusing on the division right now, blah blah blah. But it's kind of bullcrap, I think. The Yankees aren't ever trying to do anything but win the WS. The "anybody's game in the playoffs" can, conversely, end up being an excuse for subpar teams that squeak into the playoffs and don't perform, which fans forgive because they're just happy their team is there. And I agree that this year's Reds in particular have the makeup to focus on being a powerhouse, because the window is limited, and if they just focus on getting into the playoffs this year alone, they will undershoot. Last year I felt differently. But the team doesn't really seem to be moving in a direction of evolving beyond last year's mentality.

Welcome back VP. Posting from Moscow eh? That puts us all to shame. Seems you went farther to support the "Reds" than anyone.

Glad you popped in.:thumbup:

Tony Cloninger
07-03-2011, 06:18 PM
This is National League syndrome, I think. The level of competition is not as high as it is across the AL a lot of the time, and I really do believe a lot of NL managers still espouse the "we play pure baseball" (ie. non-DH) mentality, even subconsciously, which gives them a sense of dangerous, sedentary self-satisfaction. They aim to win the division, get in the playoffs, and go from there. They do not aim to be the best team or, from the outset, to win the World Series.

There's something to this, because as the 2006 Cardinals proved, it is often anybody's game at playoff time, with momentum playing a role that it doesn't in the regular season. And a lot of managers will spout the one-game-at-a-time mentality in press conferences, we're just focusing on the division right now, blah blah blah. But it's kind of bullcrap, I think. The Yankees aren't ever trying to do anything but win the WS. The "anybody's game in the playoffs" can, conversely, end up being an excuse for subpar teams that squeak into the playoffs and don't perform, which fans forgive because they're just happy their team is there. And I agree that this year's Reds in particular have the makeup to focus on being a powerhouse, because the window is limited, and if they just focus on getting into the playoffs this year alone, they will undershoot. Last year I felt differently. But the team doesn't really seem to be moving in a direction of evolving beyond last year's mentality.



Careful now..... the great Billy Beane said the playoffs was always out of your hands and it was out randomness ...who won or lost...or something like that.

I again keep saying...this reminds me a lot of the underachieving teams of 1986-88...and the FO inertia in trading away crown jewels. Or in this case....promoting them.

vaticanplum
07-03-2011, 06:30 PM
Welcome back VP. Posting from Moscow eh? That puts us all to shame. Seems you went farther to support the "Reds" than anyone.

Glad you popped in.:thumbup:

Ha, thanks. I've got to update my location -- I'm back from Moscow, but it was pretty kicky being the only fan of a team across a whole nation for a few months. (Maybe there are a couple more :) )

WebScorpion
07-04-2011, 07:27 PM
“Right now, I don’t think anybody’s too worried,” right-hander Homer Bailey, Saturday’s starting pitcher, said. “We’ve still got another half to play. I know you guys like to jump the gun, but we’re only halfway through. The whole second half could go in our favor.”

Do you really want to hear this from your team's players? Hey, what me worry? Nothing to see here people, everything is fine.
I love this answer. Classic answer for a veteran baseball player...don't get too high, don't get too low. Play the game the right way, do all the little things right and the rest will take care of itself. That's baseball! :thumbup:

Tony Cloninger
07-04-2011, 08:12 PM
I love this answer. Classic answer for a veteran baseball player...don't get too high, don't get too low. Play the game the right way, do all the little things right and the rest will take care of itself. That's baseball! :thumbup:


I will more than glad to be making more than this is....if they start going on the run they have all been talking about.

traderumor
07-04-2011, 10:22 PM
I love this answer. Classic answer for a veteran baseball player...don't get too high, don't get too low. Play the game the right way, do all the little things right and the rest will take care of itself. That's baseball! :thumbup:
Yup, baseball is a game that needs to be played relaxed. There aren't too many (if any) skills in baseball where being "fired up," tense, and nervous are helpful. Gripping the bat too tight, not good. Trying to throw to hard, not good. Starting to talk about "must win" games 2 games out of first, again, not good.

Tony Cloninger
07-04-2011, 10:34 PM
Yup, baseball is a game that needs to be played relaxed. There aren't too many (if any) skills in baseball where being "fired up," tense, and nervous are helpful. Gripping the bat too tight, not good. Trying to throw to hard, not good. Starting to talk about "must win" games 2 games out of first, again, not good.


You might try to tell Jay Bruce about the ...gripping the bat too tight thing.