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View Full Version : In a Sellers Market, the Time is Now



Edskin
07-06-2011, 01:14 PM
I hope I'm wrong, but I'm pretty convinced that the ship has sailed on the 2011 season. I think we are toast. Neither the tangible or intangible aspects are working in our favor. We are under .500 and in 4th place in he worst division in baseball.

Well over half of MLB is still in "contention" an many teams may be itchy to add some help, but there seem to be few sellers right now to meet that demand.

The Reds could put themselves in a position of power by making some of our guys available.

Cordero is first on my list by a mile. He Definitley has value for contending teams and he has no future in Cincy. This is by far the most obvious move to make. I say do it now before other bullpen options come available in late July.

Hernandez/Hanigan would also be on my immediate list. I'd expect a decent but not spectacular return.

I'd dangle Gomes/Cairo for whatever you can get.

I'd consider dealing Massett and Arroyo as well.

And here is where I may cause some of you a heart attack...
I'd test the waters on Votto. Nothing short of Herschel Walker-esque return would satisfy me there. But I'd throw it out there. I am operating under the assumption that we have him for the next two years and the next two years only. And we have Alonso to take his place... Votto may very well garner a plethera of MLB ready talent. Just saying, I'd explore it.

I'd say similar things about BP, but I don't see a viable 2B option in the organization right now to make me feel comfortable about that.

And Rolen would cleary be on my list as well....

I'm ready to start thinking 2012 and I think we can get a jump on it of we acted now.

redsfaninbsg
07-06-2011, 01:29 PM
What reason would anybody have to go to the games if this occurred? Four games out in the worst division in baseball means throwing the towel in on July 6th? Color me confused.

PuffyPig
07-06-2011, 01:31 PM
Zero chance of being sellers being 4 games out before the all star break.

Masset may well be our closer next year. No reason to dump him even if we aren't in contention.

Trade Votto? That actually might be OK, as in any trade is OK if the return is great.

But since it's taken us so long to become contenders, I doubt we trade our best player 2.5 years before he's a FA.

When you give up you generally trade your FA's to be. Not dump anyone of value.

OldXOhio
07-06-2011, 01:36 PM
I've come around to this type of thinking except I would limit the trade offerings to the following: Cordero, Lewis, Hernandez, Wood. I think Cairo, Masset, Rolen, Hanigan, Arroyo can all be valuable members of the team going forward.

The Reds have been a .500 team for the better part of 90% of the last two seasons. If the FO is not willing to make material upgrades to the rotation and to certain everyday positions, then start selling for 2012. The fanbase will understand if it's part of a well thought out plan to improve.

oneupper
07-06-2011, 01:39 PM
While I also think that 2011 REDS are going nowhere, selling makes sense only if the return is very good.

Spare parts like Cairo, Lewis, Hernandez and Hannigan. Sure.
Cordero. Yep. But it won't fly politically.
Gomes, Rolen. Sure. But who wants them?
Phillips would be a guy to sell because of the money he makes and is going to make in 2012 and beyond.
Might as well trade Heisey too, if we're not going to use him.

Caveat Emperor
07-06-2011, 01:57 PM
The doom and gloom on this board is almost laughable. The team isn't playing great baseball, but they're still hovering around ~.500 and are only 4 games out of first. They've got a legit hammer going every 5th day in Cueto, Leake & Bailey are both pitching quality baseball, and Arroyo has a reputation as a 2nd half guy.

A lot of people around here need to seriously relax. This isn't football -- they play 162 games, and every one of them counts.

reds44
07-06-2011, 01:59 PM
The doom and gloom on this board is almost laughable. The team isn't playing great baseball, but they're still hovering around ~.500 and are only 4 games out of first. They've got a legit hammer going every 5th day in Cueto, Leake & Bailey are both pitching quality baseball, and Arroyo has a reputation as a 2nd half guy.

A lot of people around here need to seriously relax. This isn't football -- they play 162 games, and every one of them counts.
The Reds are in 4th place and the only reason they are 4 out is because of how bad the division is. Saying the Reds should be sellers is way over the top, but this is not a good baseball team right now.

HeatherC1212
07-06-2011, 02:01 PM
The doom and gloom on this board is almost laughable. The team isn't playing great baseball, but they're still hovering around ~.500 and are only 4 games out of first. They've got a legit hammer going every 5th day in Cueto, Leake & Bailey are both pitching quality baseball, and Arroyo has a reputation as a 2nd half guy.

A lot of people around here need to seriously relax. This isn't football -- they play 162 games, and every one of them counts.

Quoted for truth.

PuffyPig
07-06-2011, 02:02 PM
The Reds have been a .500 team for the better part of 90% of the last two seasons.

So have the Cards and the Brewers.

Caveat Emperor
07-06-2011, 02:05 PM
The Reds are in 4th place and the only reason they are 4 out is because of how bad the division is. Saying the Reds should be sellers is way over the top, but this is not a good baseball team right now.

They're playing mediocre ball, but they're actually not a bad team. Before last night's EV special, they had the 3rd best Run Differential in the NL. They're losing a lot of 1-run games. That's like BABIP -- it's going to even out in the long run. In fact, if you did even it out, the Reds would probably be in 1st place right now.

They're one good 10-day stretch away from being in first place. I think people need to step back and look at the big picture a little. I'm prepared to trust Walt (rememebr him? guy who built the Cardinals franchise? won a WS? brought the playoffs back to Cincinnati for the first time since Hootie and the Blowfish stopped being cool?) that he'll get things righted and have the team contending deep into September.

For now, everyone just needs to take a deep breath. There is plenty of baseball left to be played this year.

westofyou
07-06-2011, 02:17 PM
The doom and gloom on this board is almost laughable. The team isn't playing great baseball, but they're still hovering around ~.500 and are only 4 games out of first. They've got a legit hammer going every 5th day in Cueto, Leake & Bailey are both pitching quality baseball, and Arroyo has a reputation as a 2nd half guy.

A lot of people around here need to seriously relax. This isn't football -- they play 162 games, and every one of them counts.

Patience is not a internet age tool, and baseball is a game that demands never getting too high nor too low.

bucksfan2
07-06-2011, 02:31 PM
They're playing mediocre ball, but they're actually not a bad team. Before last night's EV special, they had the 3rd best Run Differential in the NL. They're losing a lot of 1-run games. That's like BABIP -- it's going to even out in the long run. In fact, if you did even it out, the Reds would probably be in 1st place right now.

They're one good 10-day stretch away from being in first place. I think people need to step back and look at the big picture a little. I'm prepared to trust Walt (rememebr him? guy who built the Cardinals franchise? won a WS? brought the playoffs back to Cincinnati for the first time since Hootie and the Blowfish stopped being cool?) that he'll get things righted and have the team contending deep into September.

For now, everyone just needs to take a deep breath. There is plenty of baseball left to be played this year.


I keep telling myself that the Reds are doing what good teams do. For a large part of the season they play around .500 ball and have a couple of 10-20 game streaks that pile up the wins. For the better half of a month they have been a frustrating team that has been spinning their wheels. They have hovered around the .500 mark on a daily basis. If they get a 9-1 or 15-5 stretch that could catapult them to the catbird seat in the Central. I guess my major concern will all of this is whether or not they can play with the consistency to get it done over the course of a couple of weeks.

Guacarock
07-06-2011, 02:34 PM
It's too early to throw in the towel, but by the same token, we're not looking like a team that ought to go all out for this season. Perhaps our approach should mirror that of the Rays, who are already positioning themselves to be both selective buyers and sellers in 2011. They have the third best record in the AL, but the two teams with better records, the Yankees and Red Sox, share their same division, decreasing the odds that the Rays are playoff-bound this year.

Our record isn't as great -- we're a more erratic and overall less productive team than the Rays -- but our situation is somewhat comparable. The closer we get to the trading deadline and continue to look up at 2-3 opposing teams in our own division, the less likely we are playoff-bound. Still, we're close enough that we ought to make selective moves to improve, starting with a few AAA callups now to see if those might help us spark the team out of its lethargy. If we start stringing together more wins than losses, then we go outside our system, making a strategic trade or two aimed at improving our chances to compete in the second half.

But if our AAA callups and strategic trades don't budge the needle, then we have to remain open about shifting our approach and selling off veteran players instead. A fire sale is the last thing we should do, but if we can get value back by, say, trading Hernandez to the Giants ahead of July 31, we have to consider that. We do have Mesoraco to plug that gap. Similarly, Cairo could be moved and replaced by Frazier, or Lewis, with Hermida taking his spot on the roster.

I would not, however, entertain any offers for Cordero until it became clear that our cause was hopeless. Given his steep salary, there's every chance he could be moved in late August to a contender, if we were ready to wave the white flag by then. Similarly, this is not at all the right time to be shopping Votto. He should only be dealt for a blockbuster return, and those kinds of mega-deals are usually off-season affairs, not mid-season fixes.

MikeS21
07-06-2011, 02:35 PM
I think it is WAY too early to punt the season. The Reds are in 4th place, no doubt. But the top three teams are, and have been, playing over their heads all season. The Cards and Pirates will fade, and the Reds and Brewers will float to the top.

OldXOhio
07-06-2011, 02:35 PM
I think it is WAY too early to punt the season. The Reds are in 4th place, no doubt. But the top three teams are, and have been, playing over their heads all season. The Cards and Pirates will fade, and the Reds and Brewers will float to the top.

Why exactly will the Cards fade again?

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-06-2011, 02:57 PM
I think it is WAY too early to punt the season. The Reds are in 4th place, no doubt. But the top three teams are, and have been, playing over their heads all season. The Cards and Pirates will fade, and the Reds and Brewers will float to the top.

We've been hearing this since early May. Albert Pujols goes down and actually improve their standing. I doubt they're going anywhere.

signalhome
07-06-2011, 03:01 PM
Patience is not a internet age tool, and baseball is a game that demands never getting too high nor too low.

:thumbup:

camisadelgolf
07-06-2011, 03:23 PM
I hope I'm wrong, but I'm pretty convinced that the ship has sailed on the 2011 season. I think we are toast. Neither the tangible or intangible aspects are working in our favor. We are under .500 and in 4th place in he worst division in baseball.

Well over half of MLB is still in "contention" an many teams may be itchy to add some help, but there seem to be few sellers right now to meet that demand.

The Reds could put themselves in a position of power by making some of our guys available.

Cordero is first on my list by a mile. He Definitley has value for contending teams and he has no future in Cincy. This is by far the most obvious move to make. I say do it now before other bullpen options come available in late July.

Hernandez/Hanigan would also be on my immediate list. I'd expect a decent but not spectacular return.

I'd dangle Gomes/Cairo for whatever you can get.

I'd consider dealing Massett and Arroyo as well.

And here is where I may cause some of you a heart attack...
I'd test the waters on Votto. Nothing short of Herschel Walker-esque return would satisfy me there. But I'd throw it out there. I am operating under the assumption that we have him for the next two years and the next two years only. And we have Alonso to take his place... Votto may very well garner a plethera of MLB ready talent. Just saying, I'd explore it.

I'd say similar things about BP, but I don't see a viable 2B option in the organization right now to make me feel comfortable about that.

And Rolen would cleary be on my list as well....

I'm ready to start thinking 2012 and I think we can get a jump on it of we acted now.
The Reds are only four games out of first place. One of the teams ahead of them is the Pirates, and you just know the helium's going to run out of that balloon any day now. Let's say the Cardinals and Brewers win 88 and 84 games respectively this year. That means the Reds--who are currently under-performing and due for a hot streak--would need to go 41-35 the rest of the way to tie for first place. Do you really think the current group is incapable of that? Just imagine what a difference it would make if ended up with league-average numbers on offense. Is it really unfathomable that Janish or Renteria could approach numbers anywhere near respectability? Don't you think Jay Bruce could heat up again? Do you really expect Bronson Arroyo, Travis Wood, and Edinson Volquez to end up with ERAs above 5.00? I agree that it seems like a spark is missing from last year, but I'm not giving up on this team yet.

By the way, if Arroyo is traded, his deferred salary becomes a bonus that would be paid up front, and there's no way a team is willing to work with the Reds to make that work. Scott Rolen has a no-trade clause and is going nowhere. Best-case scenario, I see the Reds getting a minor league reliever in exchange for Cordero. Why would anyone give up anything of value for Gomes or Cairo? I really doubt the Reds could get much of anything for Hernandez either. And you're right about Phillips--if the Reds trade him, who plays second base next year? Chris Valaika? Kris Negron? Yikes.

If you think the Reds should be sellers, I respect that, but I don't see there being much long term benefit to it at all. If they end up 10 games back by the end of July, I might change my tune, but I think you'd be amazed at how much a 6-game winning streak would change your view.

Caveat Emperor
07-06-2011, 03:28 PM
We've been hearing this since early May. Albert Pujols goes down and actually improve their standing. I doubt they're going anywhere.

The Pirates are the Pirates. An asteroid will obliterate life on this planet before that team accomplishes anything of note for a full season.

PuffyPig
07-06-2011, 04:06 PM
If they end up 10 games back by the end of July, I might change my tune, but I think you'd be amazed at how much a 6-game winning streak would change your view.


If we win tonight many will change their tune.

This thread doesn't even get started if we had one one of the first two games.

Brewers looked unbeatable last week, now they couldn't beat themselves.

OldXOhio
07-06-2011, 04:09 PM
If we win tonight many will change their tune.

This thread doesn't even get started if we had one one of the first two games.

Brewers looked unbeatable last week, now they couldn't beat themselves.

I disagree. We've been playing losing baseball for nearly a month now.

Roy Tucker
07-06-2011, 04:17 PM
I think the '11 Pirates are the '10 Reds, i.e. "hey, you know, maybe we actually *can* play this game!". Baseball is a funny game.

I don't think the NL Central is the worst division. I think there are 4 pretty decent teams that beat up on each other.

kaldaniels
07-06-2011, 05:21 PM
Fangraphs' Dave Cameron predicted today the Reds will be the 2011 NL Central champs...just saying...this team should not be sellers.

Benihana
07-06-2011, 05:27 PM
Fangraphs' Dave Cameron predicted today the Reds will be the 2011 NL Central champs...just saying...this team should not be sellers.

I agree with this...

If we make some major moves in the next three weeks.

Bring up Cozart, make a trade, do SOMETHING. I do not think we get there with the status quo.

kaldaniels
07-06-2011, 05:28 PM
I agree with this...

If we make some major moves in the next three weeks.

Bring up Cozart, make a trade, do SOMETHING. I do not think we get there with the status quo.

And that is true. Cameron mentioned in the same breath that the Reds can get any player in the majors should they choose.

Superdude
07-06-2011, 07:31 PM
This is not a selling team even if we fall out of the race. Cordero and Hernandez are the only one's likely to bring anything worth having in return, and even Cordero's questionable considering he has the peripherals of a middle reliever at this point. The message selling would send to the fanbase is not a worth a handful of AA relievers.

redsmetz
07-06-2011, 07:56 PM
I disagree. We've been playing losing baseball for nearly a month now.

Since June 6th, we're 13-14 - so, yes, that is technically losing baseball. Of course, flipping one win anywhere in there and it's not losing baseball. The team's tread water basically. Not great and lots could have fallen in place & set us in a much better position. Still, as someone noted in the thread, one good 10 game stretch (not a given, of course) and this club is looking much better.

vaticanplum
07-06-2011, 09:00 PM
I think the '11 Pirates are the '10 Reds, i.e. "hey, you know, maybe we actually *can* play this game!". Baseball is a funny game.

I think that's true, but I also think their pitching is an illusion and will even out after the All-Star break. Reds culled together real pitching talent last year -- inconsistent, but talented.

OldXOhio
07-06-2011, 09:12 PM
Since June 6th, we're 13-14 - so, yes, that is technically losing baseball. Of course, flipping one win anywhere in there and it's not losing baseball. The team's tread water basically. Not great and lots could have fallen in place & set us in a much better position. Still, as someone noted in the thread, one good 10 game stretch (not a given, of course) and this club is looking much better.

Yes, and since April 6th they're 38-44. You can select any sample of data you want, there's no getting around what they are....a mediocre team playing losing baseball.

And one good 10 game stretch is far from this team's paradigm right now. They haven't even won 2 in a row since the sweep in LA three weeks ago. In addition to rotation and lineup woes, this team also suffers from an inability to get the job done. They're not winning the games in 2011 that they closed the deal on last season. I thought this was the year they took the next step, but so far that hasn't been close to happening.

nate
07-06-2011, 09:13 PM
Patience is not a internet age tool, and baseball is a game that demands never getting too high nor too low.

Absolutely.

High five!

Griffey012
07-06-2011, 09:15 PM
I hope I'm wrong, but I'm pretty convinced that the ship has sailed on the 2011 season. I think we are toast. Neither the tangible or intangible aspects are working in our favor. We are under .500 and in 4th place in he worst division in baseball.

Well over half of MLB is still in "contention" an many teams may be itchy to add some help, but there seem to be few sellers right now to meet that demand.

The Reds could put themselves in a position of power by making some of our guys available.

Cordero is first on my list by a mile. He Definitley has value for contending teams and he has no future in Cincy. This is by far the most obvious move to make. I say do it now before other bullpen options come available in late July.

Hernandez/Hanigan would also be on my immediate list. I'd expect a decent but not spectacular return.

I'd dangle Gomes/Cairo for whatever you can get.

I'd consider dealing Massett and Arroyo as well.

And here is where I may cause some of you a heart attack...
I'd test the waters on Votto. Nothing short of Herschel Walker-esque return would satisfy me there. But I'd throw it out there. I am operating under the assumption that we have him for the next two years and the next two years only. And we have Alonso to take his place... Votto may very well garner a plethera of MLB ready talent. Just saying, I'd explore it.

I'd say similar things about BP, but I don't see a viable 2B option in the organization right now to make me feel comfortable about that.

And Rolen would cleary be on my list as well....

I'm ready to start thinking 2012 and I think we can get a jump on it of we acted now.

1.) Everyone thought the ship had sailed last year after we got swept by the Cards during the brawl series, baseball is a wild ride.

2.) Trading Cairo for whatever we can get would be a bad move. The guys has been invaluable off the bench the past season and a half, we would get nothing but a marginal A prospect, we might as well hang onto him because he is useful

3.) I actually had a dream the other night that we traded Votto/BPhil/Rolen to Colorado and the only person I know we got in return was CarGo. I am absolutely not proposing that deal but thought it was interesting. And it got me thinking about the prospect of dealing Votto at some point, probable the off-season for a young stud corner outfielder and bringing Alonso to first.

Edskin
07-07-2011, 12:18 AM
Patience is not a internet age tool, and baseball is a game that demands never getting too high nor too low.

See WOY, I think my approach is actually showing MORE patience. I understand that we are still within shouting distance in the standings, but I just don't see the Reds this year as any sort of true contender. I would not change my tune on this matter even if we swept Milwaukee this weekend.

I love what Walt has done overall. We are younger and more talented than we've been in a decade and for once I have real hope about the future of our starting rotation.

But there are also major holes keeping us from being legit contenders-- even if we hung around in the race we are not on par with teams like the Phillies, etc.

I see a two-three year window and I just don't think this is the year. I recognize it's risky to deal now and potentially alienate fans, but I also don't think trading Cordero is an automatic "punt" of this season.

I just like the market right now-- it's in our favor and I think we can take better advantage now than we can three weeks from now.

I'm not saying I would desperately attempt to trade all those mentioned--- I'd just test the waters and see if someone is willing to overpay and if so, yes, I'd pull the trigger.

paulrichjr
07-07-2011, 12:49 AM
The San Francisco Giants were 43-40 and in 4th PLACE on this date in 2010. They should have beens sellers.

Will M
07-07-2011, 12:51 AM
scenario A) trade the extra/blocked prospects for real talent to help the team now. in order to add enough talent to make the team a real post season contender it would require adding money to the payroll

scenario B) major sell off of talent for a host of 'A' & 'B' prospects.
Votto goes in a Hershell Walker deal. BP, Coco & Ramon go in lesser deals.
admit that the team doesn't have the talent to be a real contender & admit that management won't up the payroll. try to really add a host of cheap young talent to the team then try to win when a few of the not so great contracts come off the books (Coco, Arroyo, Rolen,etc). target 2013 or 2014.

scenario C) add a guy or two for minimal money. spin it to the fans that we are trying to win now & these guys are going to really help. muddle along trying to squeak by in the weak NL Central. when we do slip into the playioffs its time to get our butt kicked by a real team.

I would be fine with scenario A or B. however, i believe scenario C is most likely.

corkedbat
07-07-2011, 01:01 AM
You could probably talk me into being a seller without much effort, but good luck convincing Bob Castellini (and I don't count). :D

I'm very concerned with this team right now, but I'm not ready to write them off. In order to make a move though, I believe Walt must make a handful of aggressive moves to improve this club and make them soon.

GAC
07-07-2011, 04:46 AM
To sell off now is basically putting a sign above the stadium entrance telling the fans "Don't bother. We'll try again next year."

Unless some team offers us a slobber knocker deal I see no reason to basically give it up when you're only 3 games back going into the halfway mark. Yeah we've been playing BLAH baseball for awhile now. The team doesn't seem in sync. But I still believe we have the talent to still go on a tear (like we started the season), and that could win this division.

Now will that carry us very far into the post-season? Maybe not. Who knows. But first things first. Find a way to put a charge in this team to win the division.

I still believe there will be a couple call-ups from AAA after the AS break to "breath" some fresh air into (shake up) this offense, while also giving us a look-see at some players of the future who will be given the opportunity to help us this year.

Edskin
07-07-2011, 07:04 AM
To sell off now is basically putting a sign above the stadium entrance telling the fans "Don't bother.year.

That is a common refrain, but I don't really buy it. Everyone here is a big fan and would you consider the rest of this season shot if we traded Cordero for a real quality LF prospect? I'm not sure that would hurt out chances at all this year. I also think we could afford to trade a guy like Rolen and not necessarily "punt" the season.

If we dealt Votto, then yes, that sends a "white flag" message for sure, but again, I ONLY trade Joey if we get a ridiculous offer in return, and even then I might be wary. Trading Votto would not be my focus at all, I just wouldn't totally rule it out.

Edskin
07-07-2011, 07:11 AM
The San Francisco Giants were 43-40 and in 4th PLACE on this date in 2010. They should have beens sellers.

And on July 1st 2010, the Giants traded their veteran starting catcher, who had put up very solid numbers for them over a 3-4 year period. This of course opened a slot for Buster Posey. We could do the same thing in Cincy, jettison some older players, get a few prospects in return, and open the door for some of out guys on the farm. It doesn't necessarily shut the door on the season.

Chip R
07-07-2011, 09:06 AM
The San Francisco Giants were 43-40 and in 4th PLACE on this date in 2010. They should have beens sellers.

This.

Baseball history is full of teams who played at a .500 level or below and then came on strong to win it. To those who say that the Reds look like an average team, I would agree. But the teams that were down early in the season and came back looked bad/mediocre before they got hot. Are the Reds that team? I don't know but I'm willing to stick around and find out.

bucksfan2
07-07-2011, 09:38 AM
And on July 1st 2010, the Giants traded their veteran starting catcher, who had put up very solid numbers for them over a 3-4 year period. This of course opened a slot for Buster Posey. We could do the same thing in Cincy, jettison some older players, get a few prospects in return, and open the door for some of out guys on the farm. It doesn't necessarily shut the door on the season.

IMO Posey was on of the top prospects in all of baseball. He came up and caught and hit in the middle of SF's lineup. I don't think Mes profiles to have that kind of immediate impact.

I guess the issue I have with trading a few players is what is the return you will get. Hernandez is the guy who is mentioned constantly as a trade candidate. The question is will you get as much value in trading him as you will in offering him arb? The Giants (trade partner I suspect) would have to give up the equivalent of a 1st rounder or supplemental rounder in order to trade for Hernandez. Quite frankly I am not so sure I wouldn't rather see Mes and Hernandez right now over Mes and Hanigan. Hanigan looks like the worn down 2009 version instead of the 2010 version.

As it is now Cairo is the type of player you trade for cash considerations. Trading Cordero would be a bold move. A move that I don't think many GM's in baseball would make given the Reds current situation. I guess you could trade Heisey if you thought Sappelt could replace him. You could move Gomes but what could you get for him?

Edskin
07-07-2011, 02:54 PM
Bucks-- I'm just not a Cordero fan an believe the entire notion of a closer is overrated. I believe any number of out current bullpen guys could step into that role with similar results. I didn't like the deal when we made it and I still don't like it now. He's done pretty well as a Red, buy I think we could get similar production from closer by committee or designating some else as a closer. I'd deal him in a heartbeat.

bucksfan2
07-07-2011, 03:23 PM
Bucks-- I'm just not a Cordero fan an believe the entire notion of a closer is overrated. I believe any number of out current bullpen guys could step into that role with similar results. I didn't like the deal when we made it and I still don't like it now. He's done pretty well as a Red, buy I think we could get similar production from closer by committee or designating some else as a closer. I'd deal him in a heartbeat.

The issue I have with the whole notion of trading Cordero is that it weakens the pen. Lets say that you do trade Cordero his salary is already a sunken cost. You can get some relief but that would less then the value of prospects you get. But if you take Cordero out of the pen who takes his spot? Does Carlos Fisher or Jordan Smith get he nod? Now that means Masset assumes the 9th inning job and Ondrusek inherits the 8th. Your weakening your pen because Cordero is undoubtedly one of your top 2-3 bullpen arms you have. Even if you don't buy the "closer" it still negatively effects the pen.

Reds1
07-07-2011, 03:28 PM
This.

Baseball history is full of teams who played at a .500 level or below and then came on strong to win it. To those who say that the Reds look like an average team, I would agree. But the teams that were down early in the season and came back looked bad/mediocre before they got hot. Are the Reds that team? I don't know but I'm willing to stick around and find out.

Heck, even the 75 Reds (2nd best team in history) played poor ball the 1st month of the season before they took off. What's amazing is now the Reds are only 3 out and play the brewers 4 straight. It is possible the Reds could be in 1st place at the AS break and we are actually talking about being sellers. I just read Cozart has been called up. It takes Dusty some time, but he understands the old saying about a Marathon and not a sprint. Frustrating at times, but many times it plays out ok.

Edskin
07-08-2011, 11:29 PM
What ever will we do without Cordero?

I just don't see what many of you are seeing I guess.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-08-2011, 11:38 PM
What ever will we do without Cordero?

I just don't see what many of you are seeing I guess.

Thankfully he's gone after this year. I can't believe some people were actually suggesting the Reds pick up his option.

Kc61
07-08-2011, 11:44 PM
Sell. Now. Do it for me. Do it for Redszone.

Watching this team is a miserable experience.

Let's get younger, more athletic and talented, and focus on next year.

Let's get some pay flex for a good pitcher or two.

Sell.

fearofpopvol1
07-08-2011, 11:47 PM
This was a very painful loss and I was irate watching the ending.

However, the Reds are somehow still only 3 games out. It would be great to pick up the next 2. We'd still be right in the thick of things, despite not playing very good ball.

No need to give up yet. There's plenty of time, we just need to take the next 2.

Kc61
07-08-2011, 11:47 PM
This was a very painful loss.

It's amazing that the Reds are somehow still only 3 games out. It would be great to pick up the next 2. We'd still be right in the thick of things, despite not playing very good ball.

Aren't they four out?

fearofpopvol1
07-08-2011, 11:48 PM
Aren't they four out?

Reds.com says 3?

Kc61
07-08-2011, 11:49 PM
Reds.com says 3?

It's four. Just a stale number.

fearofpopvol1
07-08-2011, 11:51 PM
It's four. Just a stale number.

Ah okay, well 4 still isn't too bad. If they can take the next 2 games (which may be unlikely), they'll still be right in the the thick of things. But they are treading dangerous water. A sweep would be damning, I would admit. I don't want to be more than 4 games back.

HokieRed
07-08-2011, 11:52 PM
Sell. Now. Do it for me. Do it for Redszone.

Watching this team is a miserable experience.

Let's get younger, more athletic and talented, and focus on next year.

Let's get some pay flex for a good pitcher or two.

Sell.

Ditto. It's time. We need to start the hard process of evaluating what we've really got and what we need. I see only 4 positions that I'm confident about for next year: Votto at 1b, Bruce in RF, one of Stubbs, Heisey, or Sappelt in CF, Mesoraco/Hanigan at C. (I don't list BP at 2nd because of his salary; that's something that ought to be part of the discussion, IMO). I'd start with three certainties in the rotation: Cueto, Leake, Bailey, and maybe 4 guys in the bullpen: the much underrated LeCure (whom I consider a candidate for the rotation), Chapman (ditto), Masset, Ondrusek.
This is a really good young core and there are good players at AAA and AA. Now's the time to start moving on being the best team in the NL, not just our generally weak division, by 2012 and, definitely, by 2013.

OldXOhio
07-08-2011, 11:53 PM
This was a very painful loss and I was irate watching the ending.

However, the Reds are somehow still only 3 games out. It would be great to pick up the next 2. We'd still be right in the thick of things, despite not playing very good ball.

No need to give up yet. There's plenty of time, we just need to take the next 2.

At what point does it become obvious this is not a playoff caliber team, even if they were to somehow luck into the playoffs? You think last year's sweep was bad? Nah, do the smart thing and play 2011 out with an eye towards 2012. With the right moves, this could be a very good team next year.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-08-2011, 11:55 PM
It's four. Just a stale number.

Almost guaranteed to be 6 by the break. This team is cursed.

Hey, another 1-run loss.

Will M
07-08-2011, 11:56 PM
if the team wins the next 2 then they are 2-3 back at the break.

if they lose the next 2 then they are 6 back & in free fall.

what Walt should do depends on the next two games. honestly i'd prefer either a couple of big additions after winning the next 2 or a major sell off after losing the next 2. what i really don't want is a 'fence sitting' type of situation to continue. we are too close to sell off. what would the fans think? yet we are too poor to make changes. thats a situation that won't produce a winner either this year nor in the future.

Kc61
07-08-2011, 11:56 PM
Aren't they four out?


Ah okay, well 4 still isn't too bad. If they can take the next 2 games (which may be unlikely), they'll still be right in the the thick of things. But they are treading dangerous water. A sweep would be damning, I would admit. I don't want to be more than 4 games back.

The team has three clubs ahead of it. Not that easy to jump three teams. Reds would need a huge second half.

I think the Reds improve most by selling Cordero, Hernandez, if possible Arroyo, and maybe a couple of kids at AAA.

Cut the payroll, add some youth, leave payroll space for a good pitcher or two.

Time to change the mix a little bit. This combo of players isn't good enough.

I would sell.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-08-2011, 11:57 PM
At what point does it become obvious this is not a playoff caliber team, even if they were to somehow luck into the playoffs? You think last year's sweep was bad? Nah, do the smart thing and play 2011 out with an eye towards 2012. With the right moves, this could be a very good team next year.

Last year, the little engine that could gets in and we are treated to a no-hitter in game #1.

But we were all soooo happy they made it in that made it okay.

Now, it back to the old days.

Sell.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-09-2011, 12:03 AM
This was a very painful loss and I was irate watching the ending.

However, the Reds are somehow still only 3 games out. It would be great to pick up the next 2. We'd still be right in the thick of things, despite not playing very good ball.

No need to give up yet. There's plenty of time, we just need to take the next 2.

And I need to win the Powerball jackpot next week. I just need to guess the right numbers.

RedLegSuperStar
07-09-2011, 12:03 AM
I don't think you sell quite yet.. But I'd listen to offers for Bray, Heisey, Cordero, & Hernandez.

Tony Cloninger
07-09-2011, 12:04 AM
Ah okay, well 4 still isn't too bad. If they can take the next 2 games (which may be unlikely), they'll still be right in the the thick of things. But they are treading dangerous water. A sweep would be damning, I would admit. I don't want to be more than 4 games back.

3...4...10....who cares the way this team either does not score enough, or the starters give up 1st inning runs.....and now the closer decides to throw another hand grenade in there just to show he is a good team player.

kaldaniels
07-09-2011, 12:04 AM
Why decide to sell right now, when 2 wins in a row (however crazy that may seem) would put the Reds 3 games out (at worst) at the break. I'd wait at least 48 hours myself before doing anything drastic.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:06 AM
At what point does it become obvious this is not a playoff caliber team, even if they were to somehow luck into the playoffs? You think last year's sweep was bad? Nah, do the smart thing and play 2011 out with an eye towards 2012. With the right moves, this could be a very good team next year.

A 4 game lead in a weak division is not enough with half the season left in my opinion. If they get swept, then yes, I'll agree. What if they win the next 2 games and cut the lead down to 2 games?

I'm not saying they don't need to better the team. They do. They need to improve, but I don't believe the talent level here is poor. I think it's an attitude or motivation thing. The team as constructed is better than they've been playing.

signalhome
07-09-2011, 12:07 AM
Why decide to sell right now, when 2 wins in a row (however crazy that may seem) would put the Reds 3 games out (at worst) at the break. I'd wait at least 48 hours myself before doing anything drastic.

Exactly. This isn't a time to sell, at least not yet.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:08 AM
And I need to win the Powerball jackpot next week. I just need to guess the right numbers.

:laugh:

In case you've missed it, the Reds have pounded the Brewers overall since the start of last season. Sure, these 2 losses have been painful, but 2 games in a row is not unfathomable.

signalhome
07-09-2011, 12:09 AM
:laugh:

In case you've missed it, the Reds have pounded the Brewers overall since the start of last season. Sure, these 2 losses have been painful, but 2 games in a row is not unfathomable.

Especially two losses in a row by a combined two runs.

Brutus
07-09-2011, 12:10 AM
I'm in the 'let's wait and see' camp.

Non-waiver trade deadline isn't for three weeks. That means the Reds can wait for a couple more weeks to see how things progress before deciding whether they'll be sellers or just non-sellers.

If they win the next two games, they could be sitting two out before the ASB... which given the lost decade, that's a nice position to be in.

That gives them a chance to come out of the break and maybe catch fire. If not, then they can sell off some parts.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-09-2011, 12:10 AM
I'm sorry. Right now my knee is jerking uncontrollably.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:10 AM
The team has three clubs ahead of it. Not that easy to jump three teams. Reds would need a huge second half.

I think the Reds improve most by selling Cordero, Hernandez, if possible Arroyo, and maybe a couple of kids at AAA.

Cut the payroll, add some youth, leave payroll space for a good pitcher or two.

Time to change the mix a little bit. This combo of players isn't good enough.

I would sell.

Even though it hasn't happened yet, I do expect the Pirates to regress and I'm still not sold on STL. Milwaukee is a legitimate threat, but they have shown this season that they are as streaky as anyone else in the NL Central when it comes to long losing streaks.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-09-2011, 12:13 AM
Even though it hasn't happened yet, I do expect the Pirates to regress and I'm still not sold on STL. Milwaukee is a legitimate threat, but they have shown this season that they are as streaky as anyone else in the NL Central when it comes to long losing streaks.

They haven't really been a threat recently, until the Reds came to town. Everyone else was beating up on them.

The Reds are a cure-all for other teams.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:13 AM
3...4...10....who cares the way this team either does not score enough, or the starters give up 1st inning runs.....and now the closer decides to throw another hand grenade in there just to show he is a good team player.

I definitely understand the frustration. This loss was a major letdown. The team this year just doesn't seem to be firing on the same cylinders as last year's team. But it's not time to give up yet. If we get swept this series, then I will have lost hope. I'd give it at least another 2.5 weeks before I'd start to think about selling.

Slyder
07-09-2011, 12:15 AM
If the management isn't going to open the money bags to get LEGITIMATE help from SOMEWHERE with the "deepest minor leagues in baseball", then why not sale on guys who might have some value (Hernandez, Volquez, Lewis, even Votto and Bruce)? This is not a team or a division made to compete with the premier teams (Philadelphia, SF, Atlanta).

It's a question Walt should be able to have answered first thing Monday morning (if it isn't already), if we are at payroll cap then start sheding some guys now so that if something catches and it starts playing better we might have the payflex to get a couple rentals.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-09-2011, 12:15 AM
I definitely understand the frustration. This loss was a major letdown. The team this year just doesn't seem to be firing on the same cylinders as last year's team. But it's not time to give up yet. If we get swept this series, then I will have lost hope.

At the rate they're going, I say they get swept.

Maybe the sooner they realize this ain't the year, the better.

Kc61
07-09-2011, 12:17 AM
Whether Reds sell now or in three weeks isn't the issue IMO.

Reds should be laying the groundwork to trade off veterans and some prospects, primarily to improve the pitching staff.

This team simply doesn't have the pitching to contend.

Bad pitching is why this is a losing team.

There will Be no turnaround this year or next without key improvements in pitching.

Reds should be selling off salaried players to make room for better pitchers. I think it is that simple.

OldXOhio
07-09-2011, 12:20 AM
and I'm still not sold on STL.

Why?

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:22 AM
As a point of reference...

Run differentials, NL Central

Reds +26
Cards +23
Pirates +3
Brewers +2
Cubs -79
Houston -100

If you put the Reds up against all of the other teams in the National League, only the Phillies and the Braves have better run differentials.

To somehow suggest that the Reds are toast as of today just doesn't make sense IMO.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-09-2011, 12:26 AM
The reason the Reds run-differential is so good is because they have a ton of 1-run losses.

Maybe it's just random variance, but I'm thinking they just don't have it (whatever it is).

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:26 AM
Whether Reds sell now or in three weeks isn't the issue IMO.

Reds should be laying the groundwork to trade off veterans and some prospects, primarily to improve the pitching staff.

This team simply doesn't have the pitching to contend.

Bad pitching is why this is a losing team.

There will Be no turnaround this year or next without key improvements in pitching.

Reds should be selling off salaried players to make room for better pitchers. I think it is that simple.

I agree whole-heartedly. Especially the starters. We have probably the 3rd worst starting staff in baseball.

Slyder
07-09-2011, 12:26 AM
As a point of reference...

Run differentials, NL Central

Reds +26
Cards +23
Pirates +3
Brewers +2
Cubs -79
Houston -100

If you put the Reds up against all of the other teams in the National League, only the Phillies and the Braves have better run differentials.

To somehow suggest that the Reds are toast as of today just doesn't make sense IMO.

NL Central Records in 1 run games:
Milwaukee 19-13
Pittsburgh 13-10
St Louis 13-14
Cincinnati 13-20

Remember how last year we seem to win ALL those kind of games? Said it when the offseason started will say it again. We need at least 1 more hammer (granted Cueto seems to be getting close). We continue to waste time with Chapman in the pen. Rewarded Volquez for what?

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:29 AM
Why?

I'm not convinced Pujols is going to be 100% for the rest of the season. Wainwright is obviously not a factor. They have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Seemingly, health is always an issue because they tend to have a lot of injuries.

I could be wrong. If they picked up a big piece before the deadline, they may be a factor.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:29 AM
The reason the Reds run-differential is so good is because they have a ton of 1-run losses.

Maybe it's just random variance, but I'm thinking they just don't have it (whatever it is).

The Pythagorean Theory is rarely wrong. Could this be one of those rare times?

Slyder
07-09-2011, 12:33 AM
I chalk the pitching up to people have gotten the books on the young guys and are starting to make adjustments and thus far Cueto seems to be about the only guy who's been able to make the adjustments to offset that.

Arroyo and any struggles Cordero may have I chalk up to age and use. Arroyo always seem to live right on that edge.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:34 AM
Reds beat up on more trash? Maybe?

I think that's a stretch. Even though the reds of July is tough, the Reds have a very easy schedule in August in September as they play a lot of bad teams. The Reds have played the toughest part of their season, which is partly why I haven't lost all hope. The rest of July is a big test though because they need to at least stay within 5 games of 1st place, hopefully less.

OldXOhio
07-09-2011, 12:35 AM
If they picked up a big piece before the deadline, they may be a factor.

Ding ding ding ding. One thing we've learned over the years: STL is active around the trade deadline. They'll get bullpen help and may even add a SS. I think they'll be the favorite come the first week of August.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:35 AM
NL Central Records in 1 run games:
Milwaukee 19-13
Pittsburgh 13-10
St Louis 13-14
Cincinnati 13-20

Remember how last year we seem to win ALL those kind of games? Said it when the offseason started will say it again. We need at least 1 more hammer (granted Cueto seems to be getting close). We continue to waste time with Chapman in the pen. Rewarded Volquez for what?

There's a lot of baseball left and I expect that things will even out more on this front, especially if the Reds continue to have a run surplus higher than anyone else in the division.

However, I don't disagree with you. We need another great SP.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-09-2011, 12:35 AM
The Pythagorean Theory is rarely wrong. Could this be one of those rare times?

Probably. I'm more on board with the pythag over 162 games. I don't think it means quite as much at this point.

The closer you get to 162 the more accurate it's going to be. The fact of the matter is that this team loses a bunch of close games. For whatever reason, it happens. This team just doesn't have it (luck, karma, etc.). Plus, we know that the starting pitching is not that great. And we know we have Cordero who has actually pitched pretty good to this point - which means...you know, more of what we saw tonight as the wins get more important.

Tony Cloninger
07-09-2011, 12:36 AM
Why can't the Pythag be wrong? Is it some end all be all....like WAR?

In the middle of May.... Choo, with a lower BA, less HR and RBI had a HIGHER WAR than Bruce. Yet someone posted that Stubbs should not sit beacuse his WAR is 4. I say.....what I see those not look like someone who if he sat more often or was platooned.....we would really miss, when he struggles the way he does.

In regards to RD.... why is it hard to believe that a team can score a lot of runs in several games but then not be able to win the close ones? Quit looking at Pythag as the only bastion of possible hope and look at what this team is actually playing like on the field.

Slyder
07-09-2011, 12:36 AM
Another sign of how the division stacks vs the "elite".

Vs the NL East
Milwaukee 13-11
Pittsburgh 10-14
St Louis 9-9
Cincinnati 3-7

This is a WEAK division there's no way around that. The fact we're struggling is testament to how we seem to get almost practically EVERY bounce just right last year.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:38 AM
Ding ding ding ding. One thing we've learned over the years: STL is active around the trade deadline. They'll get bullpen help and may even add a SS. I think they'll be the favorite come the first week of August.

Maybe...but the Cards farm system is in pretty bad shape right now outside of a few prospects. They don't have a lot of trade bait. The Pirates and the Reds have a LOT more parts than either Milwaukee or STL to trade if they desire. Of course, this doesn't mean that STL or MIL can't get a deal done, but it does make things more challenging.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:40 AM
Probably. I'm more on board with the pythag over 162 games. I don't think it means quite as much at this point.

The closer you get to 162 the more accurate it's going to be. The fact of the matter is that this team loses a bunch of close games. For whatever reason, it happens. This team just doesn't have it (luck, karma, etc.). Plus, we know that the starting pitching is not that great. And we know we have Cordero who has actually pitched pretty good to this point - which means...you know, more of what we saw tonight as the wins get more important.

I can appreciate that. You may be right. But there is still a lot of baseball left and I think we have to wait to see how the next 2.5 weeks play out before making any major decisions. If the Reds stay close, I like their chances because of the schedule they play in Aug/Sept.

Slyder
07-09-2011, 12:40 AM
Maybe...but the Cards farm system is in pretty bad shape right now outside of a few prospects. They don't have a lot of trade bait. The Pirates and the Reds have a LOT more parts than either Milwaukee or STL to trade if they desire. Of course, this doesn't mean that STL or MIL can't get a deal done, but it does make things more challenging.

What good is all those parts if Walt either A) Doesn't have the budget to add another major league caliber player or B) Doesn't want to?

Besides Rolen what trade has Walt made? It makes me sick to see a number of people on this site say we could have easily topped offers that netted Greinke, Marcum, and Garza as they went to division rivals and Walt just stuck with the same collection of players and didnt do a SINGLE thing to try and improve the team.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:43 AM
Why can't the Pythag be wrong? Is it some end all be all....like WAR?

In the middle of May.... Choo, with a lower BA, less HR and RBI had a HIGHER WAR than Bruce. Yet someone posted that Stubbs should not sit beacuse his WAR is 4. I say.....what I see those not look like someone who if he sat more often or was platooned.....we would really miss, when he struggles the way he does.

In regards to RD.... why is it hard to believe that a team can score a lot of runs in several games but then not be able to win the close ones? Quit looking at Pythag as the only bastion of possible hope and look at what this team is actually playing like on the field.

The Pythagorean theory over the course of the season is rarely wrong. Not to say it can't be, but it's rare. If you want to argue that the Reds numbers are skewed and that their pythag will be a lot worse later in the season than it is now, that's 1 thing. But to argue the theory's validity altogether is another, one which I think you'd find a lot of disagreement with.

OldXOhio
07-09-2011, 12:46 AM
What good is all those parts if Walt either A) Doesn't have the budget to add another major league caliber player or B) Doesn't want to?

Besides Rolen what trade has Walt made? It makes me sick to see a number of people on this site say we could have easily topped offers that netted Greinke, Marcum, and Garza as they went to division rivals and Walt just stuck with the same collection of players and didnt do a SINGLE thing to try and improve the team.

The clock is running out on Walt before he should be subject to heavy criticism for this year's squad. He elected to wait until July to do the things that some thought he should accomplish in the winter. Now it's not definitive that he should in fact be a buyer. I think he should sell and point to next year, but either way, he's soon to be at a crossroads that will require some expert leadership if this organization is to move forward.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:47 AM
Another sign of how the division stacks vs the "elite".

Vs the NL East
Milwaukee 13-11
Pittsburgh 10-14
St Louis 9-9
Cincinnati 3-7

This is a WEAK division there's no way around that. The fact we're struggling is testament to how we seem to get almost practically EVERY bounce just right last year.

This is sort of an unfair way to look at things IMO. The Reds played the Phillies for 4 of those games and the Braves for 3. These are 2 of the best teams in baseball. Until the Reds get a crack at the other teams (who aren't bad, but not nearly as good as the Braves/Phils), then it's pretty tough to say.

Tony Cloninger
07-09-2011, 12:48 AM
The Pythagorean theory over the course of the season is rarely wrong. Not to say it can't be, but it's rare. If you want to argue that the Reds numbers are skewed and that their pythag will be a lot worse later in the season than it is now, that's 1 thing. But to argue the theory's validity altogether is another, one which I think you'd find a lot of disagreement with.

Last thing I want to do is get into an argument about wether Pythag is valid all the time. One thing Pythag does not account for is the fact that the psyche of some of these players is not getting any better and I really wonder if Baker's laid back approach is really not working with some of these people.

Not saying you need to fire Dusty and bring in a Hard A like a Billy Martin clone.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-09-2011, 12:49 AM
The only positive I can honestly come up with right now is with the starting pitching.

It will continue to get better. And remember that Arroyo and Bailey have been great 2nd half pitchers. We will need that trend to continue. I just have a feeling you'll see that, but more of the bullpen imploding as the starters get better. If Cordero can close a couple in a row I would look to deal him soon. I don't trust him in BIG save situations. He's not money. Put it like this, I'd rather anyone in the 'pen come in and close a game in the playoffs over Cordero. He's too highly flammable for a fireman, especially as the pressure increases.

OldXOhio
07-09-2011, 12:49 AM
This is sort of an unfair way to look at things IMO. The Reds played the Phillies for 4 of those games and the Braves for 3. These are 2 of the best teams in baseball. Until the Reds get a crack at the other teams (who aren't bad, but not nearly as good as the Braves/Phils), then it's pretty tough to say.

We're the guys that are now 2 games under .500. Don't you mean when the Nats and Mets get a crack at weak teams such as ours?

Slyder
07-09-2011, 12:51 AM
If I werent about ready to go to bed I'd look at the team by team breakdown but I'm not going to be up much longer and going to be gone this weekend to a wedding and my sisters.


Last thing I want to do is get into an argument about wether Pythag is valid all the time. One thing Pythag does not account for is the fact that the psyche of some of these players is not getting any better and I really wonder if Baker's laid back approach is really not working with some of these people.

Not saying you need to fire Dusty and bring in a Hard A like a Billy Martin clone.

It's something I have thought since the day we traded Dunn and Griffey. Dusty has always had veteran heavy teams that didn't require a lot of maintenance and that is something you almost have to do when you're a team full of young guys. Last year it seem to work, but every other year Dusty has been a square peg in a round hole.

mth123
07-09-2011, 12:51 AM
What exactly would we sell and what would they possibly bring to help the future? There aren't really any big contracts to offload and the few vets we have wouldn't bring anything any better than what the team already has in place. They may save a bit on the 2011 budget and bring back a secondary minor league longshot or two, but that is all that selling would accomplish. Selling wouldn't bring back anything much better than say another Chris Valaika or Carlos Fisher type.

IMO, the team should still be looking to do what it has failed to do since the end of 2009, which is to offload its excess (Alonso, Grandal, Heisey, etc.) for a key piece or two that can make an impact and be part of the core. The only change might be that the Reds should probably focus on pieces that will be around for a while and not give up much more than fodder (Maloney, Janish, Jordan Smith, etc.) for guys who will be gone after the season and if they string together a few wins before the deadline, they still should probably consider a rental or two. Its still wide open if they can start winning a bit. If they are still floundering at the deadline, they can sell then, but don't expect much more than a little 2011 salary relief in return.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:52 AM
What good is all those parts if Walt either A) Doesn't have the budget to add another major league caliber player or B) Doesn't want to?

Besides Rolen what trade has Walt made? It makes me sick to see a number of people on this site say we could have easily topped offers that netted Greinke, Marcum, and Garza as they went to division rivals and Walt just stuck with the same collection of players and didnt do a SINGLE thing to try and improve the team.

Unfortunately, we don't really know the reasoning and that is incredibly frustrating. But we do have the parts to trade for these guys. Maybe Walt just hasn't found the right situation to trade for where he thinks the team will get equal value in return. Not saying I agree, I just don't know.

Kc61
07-09-2011, 12:53 AM
I just disagree with anyone who envisions this current mix of players being successful. It's a losing team with poor starting pitching, a closer who has had it IMO, and not enough offense to compensate for the poor staff.

I don't care about backing in to the Playoffs, which is improbable anyway. Three Central clubs are playing better. The Reds lose almost nightly.

I do care about fixing the club. The need is so obvious. The Reds should start immediately on a plan to satisfy that need, starting pitching.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:56 AM
Last thing I want to do is get into an argument about wether Pythag is valid all the time. One thing Pythag does not account for is the fact that the psyche of some of these players is not getting any better and I really wonder if Baker's laid back approach is really not working with some of these people.

Not saying you need to fire Dusty and bring in a Hard A like a Billy Martin clone.

It doesn't need to, it looks at hard numbers. And it's a very reliable system and that has been proven over the course of time. If the Reds start losing each night by double digit numbers and the run differential changes, then I'll be eager to try to look deeper into why.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 12:57 AM
We're the guys that are now 2 games under .500. Don't you mean when the Nats and Mets get a crack at weak teams such as ours?

I think the Mets and the Nats have been playing above their true talent levels. I could be wrong. Time will tell.

Tony Cloninger
07-09-2011, 12:59 AM
I just disagree with anyone who envisions this current mix of players being successful. It's a losing team with poor starting pitching, a closer who has had it IMO, and not enough offense to compensate for the poor staff.

I don't care about backing in to the Playoffs, which is improbable anyway. Three Central clubs are playing better. The Reds lose almost nightly.

I do care about fixing the club. The need is so obvious. The Reds should start immediately on a plan to satisfy that need, starting pitching.


I am with you. I wonder if this is what 1971 felt like.......however....since there was no FA or long term contracts to deal with, it was much easier to trade. There are also no more fools like Spec Richardson around and everyone knows the value of their minor leaguers.

Tony Cloninger
07-09-2011, 01:00 AM
I think the Mets and the Nats have been playing above their true talent levels. I could be wrong. Time will tell.

They just put a 3 spot on The Beard.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 01:01 AM
I just disagree with anyone who envisions this current mix of players being successful. It's a losing team with poor starting pitching, a closer who has had it IMO, and not enough offense to compensate for the poor staff.

I don't care about backing in to the Playoffs, which is improbable anyway. Three Central clubs are playing better. The Reds lose almost nightly.

I do care about fixing the club. The need is so obvious. The Reds should start immediately on a plan to satisfy that need, starting pitching.

The starting pitching is poor, no doubt. I'd love to get rid of Cordero if someone will take him, but I don't think Walt will move him while the Reds are still in contention. Even though the offense has had some real stinkers as of late, the offense is actually the ONLY saving grace as they have overcompensated for the poor pitching staff, as evidence in the run differential.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 01:03 AM
They just put a 3 spot on The Beard.

The Beard is not having a great season. He's not pitching as well this year.

Tony Cloninger
07-09-2011, 01:05 AM
2011: July (2-6) June (13-12) May (14-15) April (13-13)
2010: September (12-15) August (19-7) July (14-13) June (14-13)

I would say the trending towards mediocrity pretty much began in June of last year..... Good thing the dog days of August will be here soon.

Tony Cloninger
07-09-2011, 01:06 AM
The Beard is not having a great season. He's not pitching as well this year.

Well with all those things going on inside his beard.....how could he? Have you seen his commercials?? I think they are on once every 5 minutes on MLB Network.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 01:13 AM
2011: July (2-6) June (13-12) May (14-15) April (13-13)
2010: September (12-15) August (19-7) July (14-13) June (14-13)

I would say the trending towards mediocrity pretty much began in June of last year..... Good thing the dog days of August will be here soon.

The last half of the season the Reds played at around a 56% winning clip. To give some comparison, that would be around 6th best in baseball right now and easily the best in the NL Central.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2011, 01:14 AM
Well with all those things going on inside his beard.....how could he? Have you seen his commercials?? I think they are on once every 5 minutes on MLB Network.

It can't be good for him!

mdccclxix
07-09-2011, 02:13 AM
Just a thought, lot's of times teams rally in the wake of a firesale, maybe there is something to it. Although, often times those teams are way, way out of it with no pressure. Reds fans know what I'm talking about. But still, sometimes letting that veteran go and new blood stepping in isn't the death knell the GM thinks it will be.

Playadlc
07-09-2011, 02:59 AM
We are 4 games back with 72 games remaining in a division where no team is that much better than us (if at all).

I'm not selling. In fact, I'm not even close.

CrackerJack
07-09-2011, 03:25 AM
This franchise is going nowhere unless they get off the notion that they can compete annually with draft picks and extensions. How has that worked out for any team in the last 10-15 years?

I guess if you're ok with being "competitive," you're happy and acting like the Reds remotely resemble their history, which they haven't in a long, long time, and still don't. And we wonder why Votto wouldn't sign a long term contract here.

CrackerJack
07-09-2011, 03:40 AM
We are 4 games back with 72 games remaining in a division where no team is that much better than us (if at all).

I'm not selling. In fact, I'm not even close.

Sure that's not going to happen until they are firmly out of it, and I'm not sure they do a whole lot then. They have a huge attendance increase and like the Bengals' post 2005, will milk that for all its worth for 3-4 years, or until Votto's contract is up. If that doesn't happen I'll be impressed/hopeful, but, outside of a one-off trade for Hernandez or "maybe" BP, can't imagine they'll do anything else. It's the way today's game is - I cling to baseball for romantic/nostalgic reasons, but am not going to lie to myself that pro sports these days aren't a big, corporate joke, and don't take them too seriously, nor do I spend any $ on them. But it's a good distraction when one needs it.