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REDblooded
07-07-2011, 12:37 AM
Trying to figure out why the Reds offense just seems... off. and I came across this.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?section1=1&timeFrame=1&statType=1&c_id=mlb&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&statSet1=1&groupByTeam=true&checkBoxTotal=0&timeSubFrame=2011&sortByStat=2B

Reds are in the bottom third of MLB in doubles.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?statType=1&c_id=mlb&Submit=Submit&section1=1&timeFrame=1&baseballScope=mlb&statSet1=1&groupByTeam=true&checkBoxTotal=0&timeSubFrame=2011&sortByStat=3B

Reds are in the bottom third of the league in triples...

Compare this to last season when the Reds were 11th in doubles

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/historical/team_stats.jsp?statType=1&HS=true&c_id=mlb&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&groupByTeam=true&timeSubFrame=2010&sortByStat=2B

and 15th in triples

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/historical/team_stats.jsp?statType=1&HS=true&c_id=mlb&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&groupByTeam=true&timeSubFrame=2010&sortByStat=3B

They seem to be MUCH more reliant on the HR to generate offense in 2011 than they were in 2010.

Brutus
07-07-2011, 12:50 AM
Trying to figure out why the Reds offense just seems... off. and I came across this.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?section1=1&timeFrame=1&statType=1&c_id=mlb&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&statSet1=1&groupByTeam=true&checkBoxTotal=0&timeSubFrame=2011&sortByStat=2B

Reds are in the bottom third of MLB in doubles.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?statType=1&c_id=mlb&Submit=Submit&section1=1&timeFrame=1&baseballScope=mlb&statSet1=1&groupByTeam=true&checkBoxTotal=0&timeSubFrame=2011&sortByStat=3B

Reds are in the bottom third of the league in triples...

Compare this to last season when the Reds were 11th in doubles

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/historical/team_stats.jsp?statType=1&HS=true&c_id=mlb&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&groupByTeam=true&timeSubFrame=2010&sortByStat=2B

and 15th in triples

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/historical/team_stats.jsp?statType=1&HS=true&c_id=mlb&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&groupByTeam=true&timeSubFrame=2010&sortByStat=3B

They seem to be MUCH more reliant on the HR to generate offense in 2011 than they were in 2010.

There's definitely a little bit to that, thought it's hard to know the reason.

This year the Reds are hitting XBH 6.9% of the time. Last year it was 8.1%. It seems that line drives and infield fly balls are the reason for the difference (as the strikeout rates are practically the same). Last year the LD% was 19, this year it's 20%. Last year the IFFB% was 12, this year it's 14%. So those seem to be your difference.

The Reds' slugging, overall, is down because of the fewer doubles & triples by 36 points. Of course the OBP is also down 7 points.

Guacarock
07-07-2011, 02:04 AM
Here's another stat that points to our unbalanced offense. Of the 13 Reds positional and bench players, only three have a higher OPS against RHP than LHP. So we have 10 batters who fare better against southpaws and just three beating up on righties.

Yet, of course, we face RHP much more frequently than LHP, by a ratio of more than 5 to 1. So we have a team built to decimate one-sixth of the pitchers we face, while performing significantly worse against the other 5 out of 6 opposing pitchers.

This isn't a statistical fluke, either, but a reflection of how the team is constructed. We have more righty positional and bench batters -- 10 -- than any other team in MLB. The Blue Jays shared the same imbalance as us, until they cut Juan Rivera earlier this week.

What's even more telling? Of the three guys we have that have done better against RHP, none has served as a clear-cut regular positional player. Baker has used each of them -- Lewis, Heisey and Hernandez -- as either bench guys or in Hernandez's case, as an equal co-catcher with Hanigan.

Meanwhile, every one of our positional players hasn't hit RHP as well as LHP, and that includes our two superstar LH batters, Votto and Bruce. If you ask me, stats like these can go a long way toward explaining why the offense is so streaky, why we can pound out 8 or 10 runs one night, then barely manage 2-3 runs the next three nights.

Jocketty needs to address the roster imbalance, then Baker needs to use the players more effectively, showing at least an elementary grasp of sabermetrics. Failing to do so is the equivalent of arming yourself with a Bowie knife to battle opponents packing Uzis. The lopsided results shouldn't really surprise anyone.

Guacarock
07-07-2011, 02:28 AM
One correction in my last post: The Reds have a fourth batter faring better against RHP than LHP. But that batter is Janish, and his .544 OPS against RHP is hardly a ringing endorsement of his prowess on offense, even if it is much better than his .405 OPS against LHP.

Otherwise, ponder these splits:

Votto, 1.065 OPS against LHP, .888 OPS against RHP
Bruce, .888 OPS against LHP, .803 OPS against RHP
Hanigan, .968 OPS against LHP, .621 OPS against RHP
Stubbs, .947 OPS against LHP, .684 OPS against RHP
Gomes, 1.143 OPS against LHP, .683 OPS against RHP
Rolen, .762 OPS against LHP, .688 OPS against RHP
Phillips, .790 OPS against LHP, .765 OPS against RHP
Cairo, 1.455 OPS against LHP, .685 OPS against RHP
Renteria, .890 OPS against LHP, .543 OPS against RHP

Two other notes:

1. I grabbed these splits off MLB.com over the weekend so they do not reflect the Reds' at-bats against the Cardinals in this series.

2. I do not believe Votto and Bruce naturally feast on LHP, but they benefit by being surrounded by so many other batters who do, leading to opposition meltdowns. Conversely, you have to wonder if Bruce and Votto's slumps this summer have been aggravated by appearing against RHPs when everyone else in your lineup is carrying an OPS between .543 and .765 against these same pitchers. Now that's a recipe for a sputtering offense.

mdccclxix
07-07-2011, 02:29 AM
42 2b and 8 HR from the SS position last year.

On pace for 20 and 2 this year. So that's a big chunk of the problem right there. Ocab was a doubles hitter last year.

Guacarock
07-07-2011, 02:40 AM
Cozart already has 26 doubles for the Louisville Bats, second on the team to Mesoraco's 30. Just food for thought -- make of it what you will.

mth123
07-07-2011, 05:24 AM
One correction in my last post: The Reds have a fourth batter faring better against RHP than LHP. But that batter is Janish, and his .544 OPS against RHP is hardly a ringing endorsement of his prowess on offense, even if it is much better than his .405 OPS against LHP.

Otherwise, ponder these splits:

Votto, 1.065 OPS against LHP, .888 OPS against RHP
Bruce, .888 OPS against LHP, .803 OPS against RHP
Hanigan, .968 OPS against LHP, .621 OPS against RHP
Stubbs, .947 OPS against LHP, .684 OPS against RHP
Gomes, 1.143 OPS against LHP, .683 OPS against RHP
Rolen, .762 OPS against LHP, .688 OPS against RHP
Phillips, .790 OPS against LHP, .765 OPS against RHP
Cairo, 1.455 OPS against LHP, .685 OPS against RHP
Renteria, .890 OPS against LHP, .543 OPS against RHP

Two other notes:

1. I grabbed these splits off MLB.com over the weekend so they do not reflect the Reds' at-bats against the Cardinals in this series.

2. I do not believe Votto and Bruce naturally feast on LHP, but they benefit by being surrounded by so many other batters who do, leading to opposition meltdowns. Conversely, you have to wonder if Bruce and Votto's slumps this summer have been aggravated by appearing against RHPs when everyone else in your lineup is carrying an OPS between .543 and .765 against these same pitchers. Now that's a recipe for a sputtering offense.

This is why I've been saying for a long time that it isn't a big RH bat to hit between Votto and Bruce that is needed, but a LH Hitting Righty killer to platoon with Gomes and fill that role as a tandem. A platoon type should cost them less in terms of money and players and will exactly fill the need. In the off-season I was posting that Matt Joyce was the target that they should be after. In the Baltimore threads, I've thrown the name Luke Scott out there (who has a career split that fits but hasn't done so well this year and now has a shoulder injury that could possibly require surgery that would end his 2011) and if the Twins ever get to the point of selling, Jason Kubel is a guy to target (but now he's on the DL with an ankle problem).

Other names that might fill the need: David Murphy of Texas (having a bad year), oft mentioned Carlos Beltran of the Mets (a switch hitter who would take the job full time and cost more in money and players), Eric Hinske of Atlanta (a nice fit), Andre Ethier of LA (would cost a lot and really is a platoon type with a .615 OPS against LHP and somebody with a lesser name that costs less would probably do as well), Garrett Jones of Pittsburgh (shouldn't cost too much if Pittsburgh ever decides to sell and has an .850+ OPS against RHP), or possibly bring back Laynce Nix from Washington. I was all for upgrading from Nix so I can't fault the organization, but Lewis isn't an upgrade and Nix would fill the role nicely if he was here.

Lewis has been OK and he should play for now, but the Reds need more sock VS RHP and in spite of how Lewis has done so far, I'm not sure he provides it. Heisey should probably play CF against RHP, but based on his minor league splits (he was a lefty killer in the minors) I think his splits in the majors so far are a small sample size mirage. Stubbs could play against lefties and come in late in other games with Heisey shifting over to LF for defense if the pattern keeps up.

If the Reds could bring themselves to give it a try, a call-up of Alonso to platoon with Gomes and hit in the 5 hole might fill the need without dealing anyone or taking on any money. If Alonso just isn't viable in the OF (which I think is the unstated problem) I'd give Hermida another shot at that role.

Guacarock
07-07-2011, 12:00 PM
The callup of Zack Cozart is a start to addressing this righty-lefty imbalance. Although Cozart hits right-handed, he does better against RHP than LHP. His respective OPS stats this season at Lousiville:

Cozart, .759 OPS against LHP, .862 OPS against RHP.

Even if his OPS drops 100 points in the Majors, he's still going to be a whale of an improvement over what we've seen this season. Now, as mth 123 said, if we can just get the right platoon partner for Gomes, someone with a little more sock than Lewis, then we're in business, offensively, for the second half of 2011.

I don't look for the brass, though, to reacquire Nix. He would fill the bill to a tee, but after all the stubborn delays, denials and footdragging over bringing up Cozart, it's quite apparent that both Jocketty and Baker are rather loathe to ever admit they make mistakes. Having let Nix go, they're not likely to reverse course now and make a play to get him back.

reds44
07-07-2011, 12:02 PM
The callup of Zack Cozart is a start to addressing this righty-lefty imbalance. Although Cozart hits right-handed, he does better against RHP than LHP. His respective OPS stats this season at Lousiville:

Cozart, .759 OPS against LHP, .862 OPS against RHP.

Even if his OPS drops 100 points in the Majors, he's still going to be a whale of an improvement over what we've seen this season. Now, as mth 123 said, if we can just get the right platoon partner for Gomes, someone with a little more sock than Lewis, then we're in business, offensively, for the second half of 2011.

I don't look for the brass, though, to reacquire Nix. He would fill the bill to a tee, but after all the stubborn delays, denials and footdragging over bringing up Cozart, it's quite apparent that both Jocketty and Baker are rather loathe to ever admit they make mistakes. Having let Nix go, they're not likely reverse course now and make a play to get him back.
Doesn't Heisey smoke righties as well?

Guacarock
07-07-2011, 12:08 PM
Doesn't Heisey smoke righties as well?

Heisey, Lewis, Hernandez and now Cozart are our four batters who smoke righties, everyone else goes after lefties. Here are the current seasonal splits reflecting that:

Heisey, .761 OPS against LHP, .819 OPS against RHP.
Lewis, .000 OPS against LHP (nuthin' doing in 7 at bats), .775 OPS against RHP.
Hernandez, .743 OPS against LHP, .909 OPS against RHP.