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WVRedsFan
07-08-2011, 03:25 AM
After another game where the Reds once again dropped below .500, I began to ponder the difference in the 2010 Central Division Champion Reds and the 2011 version, and thought I'd give my thoughts who according to one poster is too ignorant to post on a public board. It's my opinon only, but my therapy after watching the season unfold.

Let it be said that the season is still out there for the teking, but it's the chemistry that concerns me. In 2010, the chemistry was the perfect storm. Votto was having that kind of season, Phillips was being streaky, but solid in every phase of the game. Orlando Cabrerra was the "winner" who was a solid clubhouse guy and came up with timely hits, even if his defense was suspect at short. Rolen was rocking and the outfield had a hot Gomes in the early season, a developing Stubbs and the emerging superstar Jay Bruce in right. The catching tandem of Hernandez and Hannigan were solid. The starting staff was the envy of baseball with future stud Edinson Volqueez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood. What could go wrong? Plenty

The Reds dropped OCab and added Fred Lewis, Edgar Renteria, and depended on Paul Janish to be the shortsop with Gomes in left for most games. The chemistry didn't and hasn't worked. Of course, no moves were made with the club being where they wanted to be, according to GM Jocketty.

Chemistry is a strange thing in sports. For some odd reason, the spark just isn't there. Maybe it was OCab. The winner moved on to Cleveland (and we know their story), and was replaced with two guys who apparently cannot hit and though the fielding is supposedly subperb, there are still multiple errors to contend with. The league has figured out Votto--walk him or give him nothing to hit. Rolen, with injuries and all, is a mere shadow of his 2010 self. Gomes reverted back to the reason he was released long ago. Stubbs is still the strikeout machine and Bruce, outside of a great start, is not Superman except for the month of June. And the pitchers...

Volquez, regardless of his TJ surgery is simply shown himself to be a thrower. Arroyo has been sick and not himself. Likewise Homer Bailey. Wood just didn't have it. Only Johnny Cueto has proven to have "it." Wood crashed and burned and Mike Leake emerged as a solid starter while the relievers, while good, had a disheartening setback with The Cuban Missile proving to be human and Masset's early season struggles. The Reds miss Arthur Rhodes a lot.

The lack of moves to obtain a banger for left (Heisey has too many holes to fill that slot), a No. 2 starter, and a solid shortstop have left he club as a .500 team. And no chemistry. Losing 19 one-run games is proof of this.

Depending on young talent is understandable. Money is the problem. Yes, they could have (and maybe will have) gone after players like the Brewers did or the Cardinals did. And yet, we've seen clubs have a great team on paper only to fail, but to stand pat was stupid. Depending on Janish to be your Volquez as your top starter was foolish. And expecting Gomes to duplicate 2010 was optimistic at best. And so, here we are. Our biggest hopes are Cozart at short ( a wonderful kid who I hope does well) and D. Willis ( a retread at best) to save the season. It is a long shot at best. We saw it in the Cardinal series. Chemistry. The Reds don't have it. I love the Reds and watch every game, but it seems an exercise in futility. This is not the team I saw last year. And it's so sad. At my age. I thought we were going to do something this year, and yet, we lose game after game with a poor pitching performance, a lack of runs, and really inept play.

I plea is that Walt Jocketty and whoever else is in charge does something beyond calling up prospects so that the Reds have a chance. With the personnel we now have, it aint't gonna happen. Peace, friends (and regardless of how you feel about my opinions) I consider these all of you that and more after 12-15 years, let's hope something is done.

AtomicDumpling
07-08-2011, 06:00 AM
Good summary there WVRedsFan. Thanks for your thoughts.

Pretty poor results from the players and the management so far. Hopefully the second half is better than the first half!

AtomicDumpling
07-08-2011, 06:00 AM
Good summary there WVRedsFan. Thanks for your thoughts.

Pretty poor results from the players and the management so far. Hopefully the second half is better than the first half!

redsmetz
07-08-2011, 06:38 AM
WV, I had to go back & read what I wrote after the final game in St. Louis. I'm afraid that you're referring to my comments when you said one poster suggested you're too stupid to post on a board. My comment about us being nuts here on RZ was intended to be a blanket indictment of the board collectively & not of you individually. So if it was my comment that gave you the above impression, please accept my apology. It wasn't my intention.

Regarding your views on this season, there is no question that whatever magic last year's team had that carried it to the division title, it's nowhere to be found this year. Last year, I fully expected that the team could overcome nearly any obstacle ("leap tall buildings in a single bound" and all that jazz). This year, not in the least. Chemistry or whatever, we're missing opportunity after opportunity to win close games.

As for moves, I just don't think it's as simple as many of us here believe. Yes, other teams made moves, the Brewers the prime example, so we know it can be done, but for whatever reason, the Reds didn't. You mentioned the Cardinals, but I think most people dismissed their's as poor moves that would not succeed, and then with the injuries they experienced, many believed it was all but certain that they'd fall flat on their faces. Not sure why we think that with that organization because they always seem to find a way to win games.

As for us, I wonder at times if, with the plethora of blocked talent we have, if part of the problem of making trades to upgrade us is that other clubs may be asking for too high a price. I think of when Bedard was on the market before going to Seattle. The rumors where they wanted huge pieces of our future back then & I'm thankful we never pulled the trigger on such a move. Even in trade proposals here, too often we see the "back the truck up" mentality for one or two pieces exchanged for five of our top chips. I don't question that we've got some surpluses to deal from, but getting a trade to come to fruition isn't as simple as it's portrayed around here.

I don't know what the solution is. The default mindset here on RZ seems to be an assumption that players never improve, or for that matter, can never break free of what production they're fated to produce. Returning to the mean and all or however it's put. And what we've seen is a club who has hovered around .500 for most of this season. And because RZ's default mode is pessimism, it gives folks the opportunity to say it proves that point. My point on your comment "See y'll in April" was meant to counter that general line of thinking. For as poorly as we've played, for as unlucky as we've been, for lacking timely and productive hitting or finding consistent quality pitching, we're fortunate to only be 3 games out. Now, given how we've played, I'm not sure there is reason to hope that will change. And for whatever gamemanship management has tried to put forward (e.g. "we're fine with our shortstop situation"), it doesn't gain you anything when it's apparent to one & all that said situation is anything but fine. I don't want them acting in panic mode, but it's clear that whatever is missing is having an impact. It's a wonder we're that close, but it's too early, despite all of the understandable frustration with our play, to throw in the towel. We may well ultimately fail to succeed this season. I can't count on any of our division foes to waiver (and that includes the Pirates). I hope we turn it around, I really do, but I don't have the confidence I had last year. I suspect we're not done making moves, although I can't say with any certainty there either that they'll manage to do that either.

Now I've rambled & I'm not sure I've said anything myself. I just don't believe throwing in the towel is correct right now. Too much of the season remains. If nothing else, if it was my comment that prompted this post, I hope you will accept the above apology.

GAC
07-08-2011, 06:42 AM
Very heartfelt summary there WV.

And what qualifies one to be the board idiot? I just want to know where to send my resume. LOL

GADawg
07-08-2011, 07:33 AM
calling yourself the board idiot is really a slap in the face to many here who have put in tons of effort to gain that title....you can't just steal a guys thunder like that!

Redhook
07-08-2011, 08:32 AM
I agree WV. This team doesn't have it and it's sad. I had high expectations this year, the first time in 10 years. The frustrating part is they're so close to being good yet management doesn't seem to care. Example #1 is taking well over a month to make a change at SS. I'm still upset it took so long for a change at SS, but I am happy for Zach and I'm happy that Walt finally woke up from his season-long slumber.

mbgrayson
07-08-2011, 09:03 AM
WV, I share your frustration at the 2011 Reds so far.

And yet, despite everything, the Reds will wake up today only three games back in the standings, with 73 games yet to be played. They need to go on a tear, and start playing the kind of baseball they are capable of.

Although the chemistry and 'come from behind magic' apppears to be missing, this kind of thing can turn around. Somehow, they just need a spark. Wins begat more wins....

Isn't it weird to think that if the Reds had won any three of the 45 games they have lost, that they would be tied for first? It won't be easy, especially with three other contenders, but at least we still have a chance. We have to keep in mind that the Cards, Brewers, and Pirates play each other a bunch of times in these last few months. All of those teams also have major flaws, and we shouldn't give up just yet.

Cheers!

oneupper
07-08-2011, 09:18 AM
The signs of this slow-lapse have been showing for months. The feeling was that the team was "a hot streak away" from contention or even the division lead. Hence the inaction by the front office. A misjudgement, since they got away with inaction in 2010.
(IMO, Harang's injury saved the 2010 team).

I pretty much conceded the season six weeks ago.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=89484

My hopes were high for this season, but my expectations low. Still, it's frustrating to see those close ones go the other way, knowing that one bounce, one dribbler, one pitch called correctly, one game decision could have easily made things different.

Plenty of season left? Not really. 73 left to play and assuming the division can be won with 88 victories (an optimistic assumption), the REDS would need to go 44-29, a .600 pace. Sure, they're only 3 out, but with 3 teams ahead, that distance is misleading. Not all teams are going to collapse, especially since they all play each other a lot.

They say "la esperanza es lo último que se pierde" (ask Miguel Cairo to translate). So play the games, play hard, play to win and we'll support the team. The odds aren't great, but hey, you never know.

kbrake
07-08-2011, 09:52 AM
I think the biggest difference has been luck. The breaks they got last year are no where to be found. The Damon bloop hit off Bray never falls in last year, this year it not only drops but kicks so far off Heisey's glove that the run to tie and the go ahead run come around to score. I feel like that play has summed up the season to this point. Last night with a great chance to come back Bruce smokes a ball so hard that Fielder can't handle it but it perfectly bounces to Weeks. The way it has happened all season. I think you have a bunch of teams with similar talent levels luck goes a long way and the Reds have yet to have it on their side.

Tony Cloninger
07-08-2011, 11:03 AM
When I saw the title about a Rambling post from the Board idiot...I thought....was I that drunk that I don't remember starting a thread last night?

WVRedsFan
07-08-2011, 11:25 AM
WV, I had to go back & read what I wrote after the final game in St. Louis. I'm afraid that you're referring to my comments when you said one poster suggested you're too stupid to post on a board. My comment about us being nuts here on RZ was intended to be a blanket indictment of the board collectively & not of you individually. So if it was my comment that gave you the above impression, please accept my apology. It wasn't my intention.

Regarding your views on this season, there is no question that whatever magic last year's team had that carried it to the division title, it's nowhere to be found this year. Last year, I fully expected that the team could overcome nearly any obstacle ("leap tall buildings in a single bound" and all that jazz). This year, not in the least. Chemistry or whatever, we're missing opportunity after opportunity to win close games.

As for moves, I just don't think it's as simple as many of us here believe. Yes, other teams made moves, the Brewers the prime example, so we know it can be done, but for whatever reason, the Reds didn't. You mentioned the Cardinals, but I think most people dismissed their's as poor moves that would not succeed, and then with the injuries they experienced, many believed it was all but certain that they'd fall flat on their faces. Not sure why we think that with that organization because they always seem to find a way to win games.

As for us, I wonder at times if, with the plethora of blocked talent we have, if part of the problem of making trades to upgrade us is that other clubs may be asking for too high a price. I think of when Bedard was on the market before going to Seattle. The rumors where they wanted huge pieces of our future back then & I'm thankful we never pulled the trigger on such a move. Even in trade proposals here, too often we see the "back the truck up" mentality for one or two pieces exchanged for five of our top chips. I don't question that we've got some surpluses to deal from, but getting a trade to come to fruition isn't as simple as it's portrayed around here.

I don't know what the solution is. The default mindset here on RZ seems to be an assumption that players never improve, or for that matter, can never break free of what production they're fated to produce. Returning to the mean and all or however it's put. And what we've seen is a club who has hovered around .500 for most of this season. And because RZ's default mode is pessimism, it gives folks the opportunity to say it proves that point. My point on your comment "See y'll in April" was meant to counter that general line of thinking. For as poorly as we've played, for as unlucky as we've been, for lacking timely and productive hitting or finding consistent quality pitching, we're fortunate to only be 3 games out. Now, given how we've played, I'm not sure there is reason to hope that will change. And for whatever gamemanship management has tried to put forward (e.g. "we're fine with our shortstop situation"), it doesn't gain you anything when it's apparent to one & all that said situation is anything but fine. I don't want them acting in panic mode, but it's clear that whatever is missing is having an impact. It's a wonder we're that close, but it's too early, despite all of the understandable frustration with our play, to throw in the towel. We may well ultimately fail to succeed this season. I can't count on any of our division foes to waiver (and that includes the Pirates). I hope we turn it around, I really do, but I don't have the confidence I had last year. I suspect we're not done making moves, although I can't say with any certainty there either that they'll manage to do that either.

Now I've rambled & I'm not sure I've said anything myself. I just don't believe throwing in the towel is correct right now. Too much of the season remains. If nothing else, if it was my comment that prompted this post, I hope you will accept the above apology.

redsmetz, you're always a gentleman. It wasn't you. IN fact, it doesn't matter who it was.

WVRedsFan
07-08-2011, 11:28 AM
I'm not much of a believer in luck. You make your luck with intense play and intelligence. Of course, that's just my opinion. Baseball is a game of dings and blasts.

WVRedsFan
07-08-2011, 11:29 AM
When I saw the title about a Rambling post from the Board idiot...I thought....was I that drunk that I don't remember starting a thread last night?No, it was me :).

And I was stone sober. Honest...

traderumor
07-08-2011, 11:40 AM
The Cards, all they gave up was $8M to get Berkman, but no talent, yet they basically sit where the Reds do, except for having a little bit better luck in one run games.

The Brewers gave up a lot to get Greinke, yet are still as flawed a team as they were going into the season, and have a respectable record only because of an oddity with winning at home.

So, while the Reds continue to get criticized for inactivity, they still have a nice little savings account to draw from, just called up one last night. Maybe they'll make a withdrawal for a deadline deal to upgrade the rotation. Go get somebody that will likely pitch better than Homer, Arroyo, and whomever pitches in the 5th spot from week to week.

I'll still take our position over what the teams ahead of us face, which is:

Cards to stay healthy. They will eventually run out of smoke and mirrors. Trust me, they will :laugh: Won't they? They have to, don't they? ;)

Brewers to pitch and catch the ball. That was preseason analysis, it is spot on, they have fulfilled expectations and their only real hope is that the division remains a fight to the finish for finishing above .500. The Brewers are even on their RS/RA, not boding well for their second half.

The Pirates starting pitching has overperformed in the first half, and while the winning record is impressive and fun for all, their pythag has them as tenous to make a run of it.

redsmetz
07-08-2011, 07:36 PM
The signs of this slow-lapse have been showing for months. The feeling was that the team was "a hot streak away" from contention or even the division lead. Hence the inaction by the front office. A misjudgement, since they got away with inaction in 2010.
(IMO, Harang's injury saved the 2010 team).

I pretty much conceded the season six weeks ago.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=89484

My hopes were high for this season, but my expectations low. Still, it's frustrating to see those close ones go the other way, knowing that one bounce, one dribbler, one pitch called correctly, one game decision could have easily made things different.

Plenty of season left? Not really. 73 left to play and assuming the division can be won with 88 victories (an optimistic assumption), the REDS would need to go 44-29, a .600 pace. Sure, they're only 3 out, but with 3 teams ahead, that distance is misleading. Not all teams are going to collapse, especially since they all play each other a lot.

They say "la esperanza es lo último que se pierde" (ask Miguel Cairo to translate). So play the games, play hard, play to win and we'll support the team. The odds aren't great, but hey, you never know.

A very apt quote (I asked Miguel Google). Your's is a realistic assessment. It seems like my mantra last season that a lot had to go right for us to have won. It did and we did. Even more so, the balance of the season must see an awful go right. I'm not sure that can happen, but it could. It has in other seasons for other teams.

redsmetz
07-08-2011, 07:38 PM
It wasn't you. IN fact, it doesn't matter who it was.

It only mattered to me if it had been me. I think this has started some good conversation though around the club and this season. Not a conversation that may prove satisfying, but good nonetheless.

Ron Madden
07-09-2011, 05:21 AM
I don't think we miss Arthur Rhodes that much, in my opinion Bill Bray has had a fine season so far.

traderumor
07-09-2011, 11:44 AM
Agree on Rhodes. I think Bray has brought to the table what Arthur brought to the table last year, and I'm not sure that Arthur would have been able to be Rhodes 2010 in 2011. Bray is another bright spot.

Notice when we talk about bright spots, save Cueto, it usually is a member of the pen. This org. can do relievers, just struggles to put together a strong rotation historically.

RedLegsToday
07-09-2011, 11:58 AM
Now I've rambled & I'm not sure I've said anything myself. I just don't believe throwing in the towel is correct right now. Too much of the season remains.

YouTube - ‪Animal House: Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor‬‏ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI)

Captain Hook
07-09-2011, 02:34 PM
Considering that I'll watch regardless I not ready to give up just yet.Even with three teams ahead of us and four games out it isn't so much to overcome that any team with a little talent couldn't get back to the top of this division.As unrealistic as it may have been, I remember years that the team was 10 games out at this point.They'd win a few in a row to cut it down to 7 or 8 eight game and I'd start looking ahead at the schedule to see when the Reds would be making their run to the top of the division and those teams didn't have that much talent.As difficult as it is I still have hope that with the reigning MVP leading the way that this team can get back to the top of the division this year.

redsmetz
07-09-2011, 04:19 PM
I think last night's loss is symbolic of this whole season. Jump out to a lead (4-0), let them catch up. Go out ahead, falter late. The game within reach, two outs. No question it would have been best to have put them away, but even after two runners getting on, a softly hit ball to Rolen that is just slow enough that the runner is safe (and that he can't race to third for the force). Just a little harder hit ball and we've got that win, two runners LOB. That's how this year's been.

MikeS21
07-09-2011, 06:15 PM
Who do you blame? What part do you fix?

When the starting pitching and offense is clicking, the bullpen fails. When the pitching is spot on, the offense can't score. And how many games has the starting pitching put the team in the hole in the first inning?

Last night, Cordero comes in with a 1.69 ERA. I know we don't like ERA around here, but a 1.69 ERA still means something is going right. In 37 appearances, last night was Cordero's worst of the season. Every one has a bad game now and thien. Last night was Cordero's turn. Say what you will about his 2009 and 2010 seasons, Cordero has been light out for 2011. And as redsmetz just pointed out, if Rolen (a Gold Glover) gets rid of the ball a split second sooner, the Reds are out of the inning. While Cordero had an off night last night, I can't say the 9th inning meltdown was 100% his fault, and Cordero certainly is not the reason the Reds are a mediocre .500 team.

Even Joey Votto, Mr. MVP, is having a "different" year. Last year at the All Star Break, he had 22 HR's, and an OPS of 1.011. This year, he has 13 HR's and an OPS of .945. Look at it from a HR/AB view point. In 2010, at the break, Votto's HR/AB was .071. This year thus far, his HR/AB is .039. Same thing could be said about Votto as I said with Cordero. You cannot blame Votto for this team being .500. Yet we all see opportunities in 2011 that Votto misses, that he nailed in 2010.

When I look at the usual scapegoats who are the perceived "holes" on the team, guys like Janish, Gomes, Stubbs, Volquez, etc., I can't really say any of them are the cause of this team being where it is right now. It is basically an across the board inconsistency. I can't blame Dusty or Walt. They are not the ones out on the field. It doesn't matter who Dusty runs out there or in what order he runs them out there, these guys are not performing. Walt was 100% correct in standing pat last offseason. He had a team full of young players who would only get better with age. He had a young pitching staff that was the envy of the rest of baseball (Remember that famous spring training photo of the young guys: Chapman, Bailey, Leake, Wood, and Cueto all standing in a "V"?) Playing Janish every day was an automatic upgrade over OCab, plus Walt signed the World Series MVP to be his back up. Bruce and Stubbs were only supposed to get better with age. These guys are major leaguers who were good enough last year to win the division. All they needed to do was mature and learn, and this team would automatically be better - even better than the Brewers and Cards and the Pirates. But they have not been consistent. I'm not sure you can blame Walt or Dusty.

Look at things this way. Take five games that the Reds lost because of a boneheaded play, a blown save, an error, a poor non-QS pitching performance by a starter, a batted ball just out of the reach of a fielder - just five losses - and win those games, and the Reds are in first place in the NL Central.

Either the team was playing over its head last year, or it is playing flat this year. So was last year the fluke, or is this year the fluke?

mth123
07-09-2011, 07:43 PM
Who do you blame? What part do you fix?

When the starting pitching and offense is clicking, the bullpen fails. When the pitching is spot on, the offense can't score. And how many games has the starting pitching put the team in the hole in the first inning?

Last night, Cordero comes in with a 1.69 ERA. I know we don't like ERA around here, but a 1.69 ERA still means something is going right. In 37 appearances, last night was Cordero's worst of the season. Every one has a bad game now and thien. Last night was Cordero's turn. Say what you will about his 2009 and 2010 seasons, Cordero has been light out for 2011. And as redsmetz just pointed out, if Rolen (a Gold Glover) gets rid of the ball a split second sooner, the Reds are out of the inning. While Cordero had an off night last night, I can't say the 9th inning meltdown was 100% his fault, and Cordero certainly is not the reason the Reds are a mediocre .500 team.

Even Joey Votto, Mr. MVP, is having a "different" year. Last year at the All Star Break, he had 22 HR's, and an OPS of 1.011. This year, he has 13 HR's and an OPS of .945. Look at it from a HR/AB view point. In 2010, at the break, Votto's HR/AB was .071. This year thus far, his HR/AB is .039. Same thing could be said about Votto as I said with Cordero. You cannot blame Votto for this team being .500. Yet we all see opportunities in 2011 that Votto misses, that he nailed in 2010.

When I look at the usual scapegoats who are the perceived "holes" on the team, guys like Janish, Gomes, Stubbs, Volquez, etc., I can't really say any of them are the cause of this team being where it is right now. It is basically an across the board inconsistency. I can't blame Dusty or Walt. They are not the ones out on the field. It doesn't matter who Dusty runs out there or in what order he runs them out there, these guys are not performing. Walt was 100% correct in standing pat last offseason. He had a team full of young players who would only get better with age. He had a young pitching staff that was the envy of the rest of baseball (Remember that famous spring training photo of the young guys: Chapman, Bailey, Leake, Wood, and Cueto all standing in a "V"?) Playing Janish every day was an automatic upgrade over OCab, plus Walt signed the World Series MVP to be his back up. Bruce and Stubbs were only supposed to get better with age. These guys are major leaguers who were good enough last year to win the division. All they needed to do was mature and learn, and this team would automatically be better - even better than the Brewers and Cards and the Pirates. But they have not been consistent. I'm not sure you can blame Walt or Dusty.

Look at things this way. Take five games that the Reds lost because of a boneheaded play, a blown save, an error, a poor non-QS pitching performance by a starter, a batted ball just out of the reach of a fielder - just five losses - and win those games, and the Reds are in first place in the NL Central.

Either the team was playing over its head last year, or it is playing flat this year. So was last year the fluke, or is this year the fluke?

Everything went right last year. It wasn't a fluke, but everything going right is pretty rare. Drops from Rolen, Votto, Hanigan, and Janish were easy to see coming. Status quo from Phillips and Stubbs was also a proper expectation. Question marks in the rotation were covered by quantity, but a lot of unprovens and injured guys were there making it pretty iffy to expect a top staff. It was pretty obvious the team needed help to maintain. I blaime Walt.

Will M
07-10-2011, 01:14 AM
Everything went right last year. It wasn't a fluke, but everything going right is pretty rare. Drops from Rolen, Votto, Hanigan, and Janish were easy to see coming. Status quo from Phillips and Stubbs was also a proper expectation. Question marks in the rotation were covered by quantity, but a lot of unprovens and injured guys were there making it pretty iffy to expect a top staff. It was pretty obvious the team needed help to maintain. I blaime Walt.

Hindsight being 20/20 we can look at Walt's offseason moves.
1) Renteria looks like $2.1M flushed away
2) Gomes at $1.8M for a right handed part of a platoon who crushes LHP seems ok
3) Arroyo has been injured (mononucleosis takes a while to recover from) and even then his xFIP is only a bit above 4
4) nice call on Ramon
5) nice call on Miguel
6) Lewis has been fine for his salary although I preferred Nix

Lets say he had bought out Bronson, released Edinson, and passed on Gomes, Lewis & Renteria. My math shows ...
$2M buyout for Bronson vs ~$28.9M over 3 years
$1.5M for Edinson
$2.1M for Renteria
$0.5M buyout for Jonny vs $1.8M
$0.9M for Lewis
Thats ~$14.6M if Walt had a crystal ball. That would not have gotten us a SS, left fielder & TOR starter.

Hence Bob Castellini has to shoulder some part of the blame.

MikeS21
07-10-2011, 05:34 PM
Hindsight being 20/20 we can look at Walt's offseason moves.
1) Renteria looks like $2.1M flushed away
2) Gomes at $1.8M for a right handed part of a platoon who crushes LHP seems ok
3) Arroyo has been injured (mononucleosis takes a while to recover from) and even then his xFIP is only a bit above 4
4) nice call on Ramon
5) nice call on Miguel
6) Lewis has been fine for his salary although I preferred Nix

Lets say he had bought out Bronson, released Edinson, and passed on Gomes, Lewis & Renteria. My math shows ...
$2M buyout for Bronson vs ~$28.9M over 3 years
$1.5M for Edinson
$2.1M for Renteria
$0.5M buyout for Jonny vs $1.8M
$0.9M for Lewis
Thats ~$14.6M if Walt had a crystal ball. That would not have gotten us a SS, left fielder & TOR starter.

Hence Bob Castellini has to shoulder some part of the blame.
Let's face it, even if Castellini forked over $50 million extra for payroll, it would only buy $50 million worth more of underachieving talent that we would be complaining about. Instead of a $76 million payroll that we have now, we'd have a $126 million payroll, which is exactly the same as the Cubs' current payroll, and look how wonderful it has worked out for them. And we'd still blame ownership for being too cheap to cough out $75 million extra for payroll.

The problem is that we have fallen in love with the "big splash" trades and the "big splash" free agent signings that all these other teams do. And we use that tired, lame excuse, "It shows the fans they are serious about winning. Invest in the team and fans will come out."

Well, ownership proved it was serious about winning. They signed Chapman; they signed Votto; they signed Cueto and Bruce Castellini coughed up HUGE money to tie up Cueto, Votto, and Bruce. Chapman did not come cheap. And that was when they already owed Bronson, Phillips, CoCo, and Rolen a boatload of money. Right there are four big splash signings that proved that ownership wanted to win. But we aren't satisfied. We want a fifth big name. Once we get five big names, then we will want a sixth big name ... then a seventh name ... etc.

Money doesn't win ballgames. Talent wins games. Just ask the Pirates, D-Backs, Indians, and Rays - all of who have at least $23 million less payroll than the Reds and better W-L records. In fact, if you took the average W-L record of those four teams with much lower payrolls and applied it to the Reds, the Reds would be 48-42, and would be in first place in the Central by a 1/2 game. A lack of money is NOT the problem.

MikeThierry
07-10-2011, 06:18 PM
calling yourself the board idiot is really a slap in the face to many here who have put in tons of effort to gain that title....you can't just steal a guys thunder like that!

Heck... I'm trying to gain that title myself :laugh::)