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Kc61
07-09-2011, 01:34 PM
Reds go 3-7, are now two games below .500, four games out in the Central, in fourth place. 23-21 at home, and 21-25 on the road. Plus 26 RS/RA.
Janish down to Louisville, Cozart up. Volquez down, Fisher up. Willis to start final game before ASBreak. Votto, Bruce, Phillips All Star reserves.

Offense - Generally offensive stats remain well above league average although dipped slightly over last ten games. OPS now .734, slightly down from last time (.737). SLG at .404 the same as last time. OBP is .330 slightly down from last time(.334). BA is .260, down from .262. All of these are in the top five of the NL. Reds are first in runs in NL (426), third in hits (815), tied for third in total bases.

Reds are fourth in walks in NL (304), tied for third in sac flies (26). Reds stolen base numbers not as good, tenth in the league in steals (55) with a low 64 percent success rate. Fangraphs, however, shows Reds with 6.8 baserunning score, best in league.

Reds wOBA trails only Cards and Brewers in NL, at .321. Reds with fourth best wRC+ in the NL (99).

Votto and Bruce have both started to hit better after brief slides. Votto is now at .321 BA with .945 OPS. Hernandez and Bruce solidly over .800 OPS mark, Bruce now with 20 homers. Votto and Bruce with over 50 RBI each. With Janish down, only Rolen (.682) and Hanigan (.672) below .700 OPS among starters or semi-starters.

Pitching - Overall pitching with big unfavorable jump from 4.07 ERA to 4.18. Starting pitching caused this unfavorable jump going from 4.48 to current 4.67 ERA which is fifteenth in the league. Reds overall FIP is just better than Astros (last place) with 4.30.

Here's some comps on the starting pitching. Reds at 4.67 ERA, league average is 3.95. Reds 4.67 can be compared to Phils league leading 2.98 and Braves second 3.23. Reds starters with an OPS against of .777. League average OPS against is .721. Reds starters have allowed the most homers of any starting staff in NL, 79. Reds starters with fifth most walks in the NL (177), BA against is .265, fourth worst in league.

Bullpen improved from 3.34 ERA to 3.27. But save percent of 63 percent is below league average of 67 percent. Reds are tied for 11th -13th in league in this category. So despite overall good bullpen numbers, Reds have blown a high percentage of saves. Cordero with huge blown save last night against Brewers that deserves special mention.

Masset ERA steadily improving (like last year) now 3.13. Chapman still over 5 ERA, but steadily improving. Lecure with good numbers, pitching well in pen, ERA at 2.72.

Fielding - Reds with 44 errors, second fewest in NL, trail Phils with 43. FPCT is .987. Stolen base against percentage of .640 second best in NL. Reds UZR rating clearly the best in the NL.

Good hitting team, superb fielding team, weak pitching team.

RedsManRick
07-09-2011, 05:25 PM
Overall
W-L RS/G RA/G
Apr 14-13 5.3 4.5
May 14-15 4.6 4.9
Jun 14-12 4.6 3.5
Jul 2-6 3.9 5.8

Offense
AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA BABIP OPS+
Apr .262 .337 .419 .756 .337 .297 113
May .260 .330 .392 .723 .319 .299 104
Jun .261 .328 .399 .727 .319 .313 106
Jul .253 .310 .416 .726 .310 .276 99

Pitching
K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP ERA- FIP- xFIP-
Apr 8.0 3.6 1.1 .297 4.32 4.02 3.75 110 103 99
May 6.4 3.8 1.2 .269 4.42 4.67 4.27 113 120 113
Jun 6.5 3.3 1.0 .268 3.38 4.08 3.96 86 105 104
Jul 6.6 2.2 1.6 .285 5.45 4.57 3.56 139 117 94

Defense (year to date, runs relative to average)
ArmR DpR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150 DER
Runs 2.1 -1.8 19.4 7.1 26.9 7.5 .721
NL Rank 2 12 2 2 1 1 2

mdccclxix
07-09-2011, 06:20 PM
Just consider how good the defense has been. Add in a strong offense. This pitching staff is completely ruining this season.

mth123
07-09-2011, 07:53 PM
I don't think the top 3 offenses in the NL coming from the central is a coincidence. The environment in the midwest is an offensive paradise. I strill think the pitching is an issue, but the offense isn't as good as it shows in the stats and the pitching talent probably not as bad. I maintain, that for this team to win, the offense needs to be in the top 3 or 4 and then getting the pitching to the middle of the pack is the best we can expect. I don't think we'll be seeing this team ever winning with a top 5 staff leading the way unless the NL West and NL East build a bunch of new homer havens bringing them to the level that things are in the Central.

Redhook
07-09-2011, 08:06 PM
Just consider how good the defense has been. Add in a strong offense. This pitching staff is completely ruining this season.

It boils down to 3 guys:

Arroyo hasn't been himself.
Volquez has been himself, but not who the Reds thought he'd be.
Wood has surprised many, including myself, and pitched terribly.

If 2 of those 3 pitched a little better, this team would probably be in first place. And, going into the season, I don't think that was too much to ask.