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View Full Version : What is the end game with all these top prospects?



WMR
07-10-2011, 07:56 PM
Been meaning to ask this for awhile...

Is Walt going to actually make a move to improve the big league club at some point? He stood pat this winter which has proven to be a huge mistake...

Are we just going to continue to hoard these prospects until time immemorial?

Nothing more frustrating than a minor league system chock full of pieces and a big league club with GLARING (and I mean GLARING) holes.

edabbs44
07-10-2011, 07:57 PM
Been meaning to ask this for awhile...

Is Walt going to actually make a move to improve the big league club at some point? He stood pat this winter which has proven to be a huge mistake...

Are we just going to continue to hoard these prospects until time immemorial?

Nothing more frustrating than a minor league system chock full of pieces and a big league club with GLARING (and I mean GLARING) holes.

Can I ask what those glaring holes actually are?

I know SS is the big one, but I'd be curious as to the others.

MikeThierry
07-10-2011, 08:05 PM
Can I ask what those glaring holes actually are?

I know SS is the big one, but I'd be curious as to the others.

Do you think that 3rd base is starting to become a glaring hole? Rolen still gives the Reds awesome defense. I was amazed at the defensive non-play that Rolen made this week against the Cardinals that led to the Cardinals run. That was amazing range and skill Rolen showed. Yet, I'm looking at his batting stats and it almost looks like an anemic position at this point, offensively speaking. Can the Reds sustain lackluster offense at 3rd base? I would also say Left Field would be a big issue for the Reds as well.

edabbs44
07-10-2011, 08:27 PM
Do you think that 3rd base is starting to become a glaring hole? Rolen still gives the Reds awesome defense. I was amazed at the defensive non-play that Rolen made this week against the Cardinals that led to the Cardinals run. That was amazing range and skill Rolen showed. Yet, I'm looking at his batting stats and it almost looks like an anemic position at this point, offensively speaking. Can the Reds sustain lackluster offense at 3rd base? I would also say Left Field would be a big issue for the Reds as well.

The Brewers have McGehee, Betancourt, Lucroy and Gomez. The Cards have Theriot, Descalso and Schumaker. The Pirates have Cedeno, Overbay and Tabata.

Every team has a few warts. Just because some are screaming about certain things doesn't make them true.

Most on this team have had their own moments this season. Votto is a little off the pace in the SLG dept. BP has fallen off since April. SS has been disasterous. Rolen has been an issue. LF has been pretty mediocre overall. Stubbs has been...you know. Jay has been largely missing, save for one month. Hanigan has been nothing special. Ramon has been great.

Wood..no. Arroyo..no. Leake has been largely good. Cueto even better. Volquez, disaster. Homer, injuries. Masset mostly good except for a few appearances early on. Cordero the same, just later on the issues. Logan, good. Bray, good. Chapman, either legendary or awful.

I think the struggles this season have mostly been a compilation of issues from many different contributors. It's easy to harp on a few areas, however those "glaring holes" may not be as large of an issue as some other areas we have witnessed.

mth123
07-10-2011, 08:29 PM
Can I ask what those glaring holes actually are?

I know SS is the big one, but I'd be curious as to the others.

Starting pitcher. Middle of the order bat. Starting Pitcher.

Brutus
07-10-2011, 08:30 PM
Do you think that 3rd base is starting to become a glaring hole? Rolen still gives the Reds awesome defense. I was amazed at the defensive non-play that Rolen made this week against the Cardinals that led to the Cardinals run. That was amazing range and skill Rolen showed. Yet, I'm looking at his batting stats and it almost looks like an anemic position at this point, offensively speaking. Can the Reds sustain lackluster offense at 3rd base? I would also say Left Field would be a big issue for the Reds as well.

I hesitate to say this, because inevitably it will provoke a comment about not trusting UZR, but right now, Rolen's WAR is 1.2 -- which is slightly above average. So despite his hitting being down, he's still picking it with the glove enough to be an above average player rather than a "glaring hole."

klw
07-10-2011, 08:32 PM
While there may be glaring holes, there are not glaring solutions for those holes. (Or at least not now that Cozart is up). The prospects can not be moved unless someone is willing to move the right piece back and the trade market sounds thin this year.

MikeThierry
07-10-2011, 08:39 PM
I hesitate to say this, because inevitably it will provoke a comment about not trusting UZR, but right now, Rolen's WAR is 1.2 -- which is slightly above average. So despite his hitting being down, he's still picking it with the glove enough to be an above average player rather than a "glaring hole."

Brutus, you have no argument for me on UZR. Old school fielding stats should be thrown out in my opinion. I guess my question in terms of Rolen is does his excellent defense make up for his lack luster bat? Is there a point where the lack of offensive production at a position that is supposed to produce offensively becomes a liability despite the defense at that position? I'm just seeing right now an almost easy out in the Reds lineup at that position.

Brutus
07-10-2011, 08:46 PM
Brutus, you have no argument for me on UZR. Old school fielding stats should be thrown out in my opinion. I guess my question in terms of Rolen is does his excellent defense make up for his lack luster bat? Is there a point where the lack of offensive production at a position that is supposed to produce offensively becomes a liability despite the defense at that position? I'm just seeing right now an almost easy out in the Reds lineup at that position.

I suppose it depends on the accuracy of UZR. If it's pretty accurate, then statistically, I guess it does make up for it. Janish was so bad it didn't. But Rolen is barely adequate enough offensively that he's not giving away runs, if we accept that UZR is in the ballpark of his defensive contributions thus far.

dougdirt
07-10-2011, 08:49 PM
I think we are likely to sit on them. I just don't believe for a second that the Reds have the money to acquire an impact talent this season which means no trading of prospects for help.

edabbs44
07-10-2011, 09:09 PM
I think we are likely to sit on them. I just don't believe for a second that the Reds have the money to acquire an impact talent this season which means no trading of prospects for help.

If Cincy really wants an impact talent, they just have to pony up the prospects. The more the prospects, the less money they will have to take on.

Unassisted
07-10-2011, 09:24 PM
It's not like the Reds have been sitting on their hands with their prospects while other teams are making deals. Nobody in MLB is making deals. I infer from the lack of trade movement that there must not be any sellers yet. Can't make a deal without a trading partner!

I wonder sometimes how much of the MLB-wide inertia is posturing related to the impending CBA negotiations.

mth123
07-11-2011, 02:52 AM
It's not like the Reds have been sitting on their hands with their prospects while other teams are making deals. Nobody in MLB is making deals. I infer from the lack of trade movement that there must not be any sellers yet. Can't make a deal without a trading partner!

I wonder sometimes how much of the MLB-wide inertia is posturing related to the impending CBA negotiations.

Disagree. They sat on Cozart when it was obvious he was on fire and the other guys weren't doing the job. They sat on these guys in the off-season when it was obvious they needed help.

Its not about no deals in May, its about no deals in December IMO.

edabbs44
07-11-2011, 07:04 AM
Disagree. They sat on Cozart when it was obvious he was on fire and the other guys weren't doing the job. They sat on these guys in the off-season when it was obvious they needed help.

Its not about no deals in May, its about no deals in December IMO.

I'm not sure that it was so obvious that they needed help. Most pundits had them as the winner of the division.

And I'm not sure what the smart move would have been in December anyway.

cincrazy
07-11-2011, 08:20 AM
The Brewers have McGehee, Betancourt, Lucroy and Gomez. The Cards have Theriot, Descalso and Schumaker. The Pirates have Cedeno, Overbay and Tabata.

Every team has a few warts. Just because some are screaming about certain things doesn't make them true.

Most on this team have had their own moments this season. Votto is a little off the pace in the SLG dept. BP has fallen off since April. SS has been disasterous. Rolen has been an issue. LF has been pretty mediocre overall. Stubbs has been...you know. Jay has been largely missing, save for one month. Hanigan has been nothing special. Ramon has been great.

Wood..no. Arroyo..no. Leake has been largely good. Cueto even better. Volquez, disaster. Homer, injuries. Masset mostly good except for a few appearances early on. Cordero the same, just later on the issues. Logan, good. Bray, good. Chapman, either legendary or awful.

I think the struggles this season have mostly been a compilation of issues from many different contributors. It's easy to harp on a few areas, however those "glaring holes" may not be as large of an issue as some other areas we have witnessed.

You're right, the Brewers and Cardinals have big time weak spots too, that's why nobody is running away with it. However, the core of those two teams are more dependable, consistent, and productive than this team's core. Outside of Votto, who is an absolute lock to produce, day in, day out? I love Jay Bruce and the player he's turning into, but his streaks are well documented.

mdccclxix
07-11-2011, 01:28 PM
I think Alonso may be the LF platoon next year and if he performs Votto may get traded before 2013 for a truck load. At this pace, the Reds will have Alonso from 25-31 years old if he can stick at 1b.

I can see Heisey being the primary LF option for a few more years. So I doubt Sappelt beats him out.

Frazier may have to wait yet another year and become the Cairo/Rolen successor. He'd be with the Reds from 27-33.

It's to the point of ridiculousness, but that's what it looks like from here.

dougdirt
07-11-2011, 01:42 PM
I can see Heisey being the primary LF option for a few more years. So I doubt Sappelt beats him out.



I hope this isn't the case. Dave Sappelt is going to be a better outfielder than Chris Heisey. The only area of their games where Heisey has an advantage is his throwing arm and his ability to steal bases. Heisey may have more HR power, but I think Sappelt is likely to slug just as much if not more because he will hit for a better average and still has some good pop.

HokieRed
07-11-2011, 01:45 PM
I think Alonso may be the LF platoon next year and if he performs Votto may get traded before 2013 for a truck load. At this pace, the Reds will have Alonso from 25-31 years old if he can stick at 1b.

I can see Heisey being the primary LF option for a few more years. So I doubt Sappelt beats him out.

Frazier may have to wait yet another year and become the Cairo/Rolen successor. He'd be with the Reds from 27-33.

It's to the point of ridiculousness, but that's what it looks like from here.

Not really ridiculous. What you just laid out above is something like 3 positions being covered at relatively low prices for 6 years or so. That gives the org. a lot of flexibility to acquire other things it needs--like SP. That's why you don't trade prospects who can become major league regulars easily. I also think it's a whole lot more difficult to make trades than most RZers think. For one thing, as Walt pointed out a week or so ago, practically everybody's still in contention. And if you're going to try to trade with contending clubs, they don't want your prospects; they want what we want--immediate help. Most realistic possibility is Ramon to SF. After that, maybe somebody will take Coco off our hands, though he certainly hasn't strengthened that possibility in the last few days.

mth123
07-11-2011, 08:59 PM
I'm not sure that it was so obvious that they needed help. Most pundits had them as the winner of the division.

And I'm not sure what the smart move would have been in December anyway.

Who cares about pundits? It was obvious that:

1. They were lacking LH htting behind Votto and Bruce and with splitty guys like Gomes and Phillips they might struggle against RHP.

2. That a repeat from several guys who were great last year was unlikely. Did anyone think Votto would lead the league in OBP, Sluggig and OPS again? Or that Hanigan would OPS in the mid 800s? That Janish would be aboive .650? etc, etc, etc,

3. It was obvious that Rolen had a final hurrah as an offensive force in the first half and was declining from centerpiece to decent role player status and that he would need to be replaced in the middle of the order.

4. That the rotation had a lot of names, but that most were injury guys or unproven kids and needed something proven and stable.

Maybe they couldn't get everything, but they have lots of blocked kids and could have gotten something. Instead we got Edgar Renteria.

edabbs44
07-11-2011, 10:41 PM
Who cares about pundits? It was obvious that:

1. They were lacking LH htting behind Votto and Bruce and with splitty guys like Gomes and Phillips they might struggle against RHP.

2. That a repeat from several guys who were great last year was unlikely. Did anyone think Votto would lead the league in OBP, Sluggig and OPS again? Or that Hanigan would OPS in the mid 800s? That Janish would be aboive .650? etc, etc, etc,

3. It was obvious that Rolen had a final hurrah as an offensive force in the first half and was declining from centerpiece to decent role player status and that he would need to be replaced in the middle of the order.

4. That the rotation had a lot of names, but that most were injury guys or unproven kids and needed something proven and stable.

Maybe they couldn't get everything, but they have lots of blocked kids and could have gotten something. Instead we got Edgar Renteria.

So what were the moves that they lost out on? IIRC, you were pro-Dejesus and Willingham. That could have been problematic.

mth123
07-12-2011, 12:46 AM
So what were the moves that they lost out on? IIRC, you were pro-Dejesus and Willingham. That could have been problematic.

I still think Willingham would have been an improvement. The NL Central is an easy place to hit. I'd guess if Willingham were in GABP and Gomes in Oakland, Willingham would be .800+ and Gomes would be in the .600s.

If Willingham is available, I'd be involved if I were Walt, but I'd prefer a lefty to platoon with Gomes as far as LF goes. Maybe that is Alonso, if so, what are we waiting for?

edabbs44
07-12-2011, 06:36 AM
I still think Willingham would have been an improvement. The NL Central is an easy place to hit. I'd guess if Willingham were in GABP and Gomes in Oakland, Willingham would be .800+ and Gomes would be in the .600s.

If Willingham is available, I'd be involved if I were Walt, but I'd prefer a lefty to platoon with Gomes as far as LF goes. Maybe that is Alonso, if so, what are we waiting for?

Possible but one interesting thing about JW is that his numbers aren't looking like they are being affected by the environment. H/R splits are fairly even and his numbers at Safeco and Texas are pretty good, middle of the road at home and bad at LAA.

HokieRed
07-12-2011, 09:45 AM
If Chris Heisey could learn to walk just a little more, he'd virtually be Josh Willingham, at about a tenth the cost. The difference between them--at this point in Willingham's career--looks to me like next to nothing. In a small sample size, Heisey's shown a bit more power; Willingham's consistently walked more. This is not an argument against our upgrading LF; it's a suggestion JW is past the point in his career when he was a possible solution.

mth123
07-12-2011, 07:32 PM
Willingham OPS 2006- 2010 .852, .827, .834, .863, .848 accomplished in pitchers parks in Fla and Wash. The Reds have 2 guys capable of that - Votto and Bruce. I like Chris Heisey, but he will never have a 5 year run of .825+ of OPS, even in GABP.

HokieRed
07-12-2011, 11:20 PM
Willingham OPS 2006- 2010 .852, .827, .834, .863, .848 accomplished in pitchers parks in Fla and Wash. The Reds have 2 guys capable of that - Votto and Bruce. I like Chris Heisey, but he will never have a 5 year run of .825+ of OPS, even in GABP.

Josh Willingham had those numbers. That was then, this is now. If the question is whether I'd rather have the whole career of Josh Willingham or Chris Heisey, I'll obviously take JW. But that's not the question.

mth123
07-12-2011, 11:52 PM
Josh Willingham had those numbers. That was then, this is now. If the question is whether I'd rather have the whole career of Josh Willingham or Chris Heisey, I'll obviously take JW. But that's not the question.

Then was an .848 OPS last year. I'd take him in GABP and the NL Central and bet he'd outhit anyone on the Reds roster not named Bruce or Votto over the second half.

HokieRed
07-13-2011, 12:19 AM
I don't see that the big dropoff in Willingham's stats this season has much to do with ballparks. The strength of his OPS has always been in his walks, which maybe had something to do with his being in Washington's lineup. This year he's struck out 81 times in 245 AB's, a veritable Stubbsian number. And he's walked only 22 times; whereas last season, he had only 85 K's for the whole season and 67 W's. With new ratios of 1 K per 3 AB and 4:1 K to W, I'm not much interested in him.

REDREAD
07-13-2011, 12:42 AM
. I guess my question in terms of Rolen is does his excellent defense make up for his lack luster bat? .

Yes, a few weeks ago, someone compared Rolen's hitting with the rest of the league 3b.. Rolen was around average (maybe slightly above) in OPS.
His glove makes him a plus player.

He's no longer an MVP type player, but he's definitely adequate.

Starting pitching has sunk this team.
They did put way too much faith in Volquez.
But it was hard to forsee Wood and Arroyo falling apart this year.
Homer had an injury history, but since he's out of options, they pretty much had to plan on him being the rotation.
Can't really fault Walt too much for not trading away 3/6 of his rotation from the previous year.. Heck, most on this board desperately wanted to dump Leake. Thank God we did not do that.

Trusting Janish for so long was a black mark on Walt and Dusty though.

REDREAD
07-13-2011, 12:51 AM
Then was an .848 OPS last year. I'd take him [Willingham] in GABP and the NL Central and bet he'd outhit anyone on the Reds roster not named Bruce or Votto over the second half.

No offense, but this is a bigger reach than some of the things you criticize Walt for. Willingham stinks this year. Worse than Gomes. You can't blame that all on ballpark effects. He would most likely be a 6 million dollar albotross if we traded for him over the winter, plus he would've cost prospects.

It's easy to pick apart a team like the Reds and say at the end of 2010
1. Votto and Rolen probably won't hit as well next year. We need another big bat.
2. Janish will probably not hit, need another SS.
3. We need an ace pitcher

It's a lot harder to actually get that done, especially if you only have about maybe 3-4 million to spend.. I guess they could've not brought back Ramon (as some people championed) for a little more payflex, but Ramon has clearly earned his money. Gomes too.