Four games out

[BAKER12]

The Reds are two games under and only four out and have been very unlucky in the process. The Cards, Brewers and Pirates have all played prolonged stretches of sizzling/lucky baseball.

Every team has a hot stretch in every season. The Reds have yet to hit their hot streak. When they do, this division is very winnable.

Sorry if I ticked people off with my Dusty defense, but in the heat of the moment everyone says things they would take back.

What I look for in the second half:
Catcher- Hanigan to heat up, Ramon to cool down
1st- Joey to start driving homers the other way, adjusting to how he is being pitched
2nd- Phillips to continue his gold glove play and have his best season ever
3rd- Rolen and Cairo to produce a .260 average combined, 12 HR and 70 RBI
SS- Cozart is going to have his ups and downs, but solidifies the spot and hits .270
LF- Heisey and Lewis will platoon and Heisey also will see time in CF
CF- See Stubbs stats last year and you have 2011
RF- Bruce will have monster 2nd half, hitting 35 HR total
Bench- Gomes likely DFA or dealt to AL team needing power (Back to Tampa)
Renteria stays as mentor to Cozart, catching is awesome, OF depth alright

Rotation
1. Cueto-ACE
2. Leake- Good and no one knows it except Reds fans
3. Bailey- Who the heck knows with this guy, one crummy inning every time out, needs to get it together and he can be difference maker
4. Arroyo- Not the Bronson that will win 15 or 16 this year, may make first trip to DL
5. Willis, Wood- One of these lefties emerges and helps. Wood has no excuse for not being in this rotation

Note Volquez not mentioned, that is depressing considering his ability. Needs another haircut?

Bullpen
Ondrusek- Second half slump, not horrible but a season ending 2.50 ERA
LeCure- Becoming sold on Sam, solid and will have great second half
Bray- See Ondrusek
Masset- Five of every six times out a unblemished outing, 2012 closer
Chapman- Difference maker in final push for division, has been sensational since coming back. Has regained faith of Price and Dusty, HUGE LIGHTS OUT finish for Chapman.
CoCo- He will get back on track in second half and final season as a Red

Final Record 85-77, Central Champs

Enjoy the break!

[R_Webb18]

I think overall they have played kinda bad so far. but imo they will never give up and will try to find a way back some how.

[Vottomatic]

You forgot that Dusty is still the manager.

Cordero may end up with 10 or more blown saves the way Dusty handles him.

This team is going nowhere with Clueless making the decisions.

[mroby85]

You forgot that Dusty is still the manager.

Cordero may end up with 10 or more blown saves the way Dusty handles him.

This team is going nowhere with Clueless making the decisions.

I'm sure the Cardinals would feel very sorry for our bad luck considering they've lost Wainwright for the season, Pujols for an extended period,Holliday,Mcclellan, Freese and Carpenter pitched terrible up until his last few starts, and they don't have their set up man, or closer that they expected when the season began, yet they're 4 games ahead of us. I agree about the Pirates, they're lucky and won't last.

[redram]

And why do you think we have had Bad Luck, because we have Dusty as a manager? That is the only bad luck I see. The good luck of the Cards and Brewers is because they don't have Dusty as manager. I don't buy the bad luck good luck stuff I only see us under achieving and the Cards and Brewers beating us not to mention the Pirates as well. If any 4 of these teams can get on a hot streak they could close it out in a couple of weeks. The team with the best shot at doing this IMO is The Brewers not us. Hope I am wrong.

[mrherd05]

I agree with the OP, however, in a division like this where three teams are still in front of us, single games matter.

Dusty has personally cost us multiple games this season. The most recent being Sunday. That cant all be on Co Co. Co Co was all star material until a week ago.

He never pitches him three straight days, and to do it yesterday was dumb. And it cost us a game in the standings.

[nux fan]

If the reporters dont ask our brain challenged manager tough questions then there is no accountability

[mrherd05]

Our reporters dont hold our manager accountable, his boss does.

[brm7675]

The Reds are two games under and only four out and have been very unlucky in the process. The Cards, Brewers and Pirates have all played prolonged stretches of sizzling/lucky baseball.

Unlucky? Really? Are we so in need of not being able to see what is happening in front of us that we are blaming "luck" for being a very basic average team this season?

Every team has a hot stretch in every season. The Reds have yet to hit their hot streak. When they do, this division is very winnable.

Can you provide proof of this?

Sorry if I ticked people off with my Dusty defense, but in the heat of the moment everyone says things they would take back.

What I look for in the second half:
Catcher- Hanigan to heat up, Ramon to cool down
1st- Joey to start driving homers the other way, adjusting to how he is being pitched

Joey isn't being pitched to, awful tough to drive anything that is out of the strike zone.

2nd- Phillips to continue his gold glove play and have his best season ever
3rd- Rolen and Cairo to produce a .260 average combined, 12 HR and 70 RBI
SS- Cozart is going to have his ups and downs, but solidifies the spot and hits .270
LF- Heisey and Lewis will platoon and Heisey also will see time in CF
CF- See Stubbs stats last year and you have 2011
RF- Bruce will have monster 2nd half, hitting 35 HR total
Bench- Gomes likely DFA or dealt to AL team needing power (Back to Tampa)
Renteria stays as mentor to Cozart, catching is awesome, OF depth alright

What leads you to believe they will DFA him or trade him? OMG why do you keep Edgar?

Rotation
1. Cueto-ACE
2. Leake- Good and no one knows it except Reds fans
3. Bailey- Who the heck knows with this guy, one crummy inning every time out, needs to get it together and he can be difference maker
4. Arroyo- Not the Bronson that will win 15 or 16 this year, may make first trip to DL
5. Willis, Wood- One of these lefties emerges and helps. Wood has no excuse for not being in this rotation

Note Volquez not mentioned, that is depressing considering his ability. Needs another haircut?

Bullpen
Ondrusek- Second half slump, not horrible but a season ending 2.50 ERA
LeCure- Becoming sold on Sam, solid and will have great second half
Bray- See Ondrusek
Masset- Five of every six times out a unblemished outing, 2012 closer
Chapman- Difference maker in final push for division, has been sensational since coming back. Has regained faith of Price and Dusty, HUGE LIGHTS OUT finish for Chapman.
CoCo- He will get back on track in second half and final season as a Red

Final Record 85-77, Central Champs

Enjoy the break!

[LegallyMinded]

The Reds are two games under and only four out and have been very unlucky in the process. The Cards, Brewers and Pirates have all played prolonged stretches of sizzling/lucky baseball.

Unlucky? Really? Are we so in need of not being able to see what is happening in front of us that we are blaming "luck" for being a very basic average team this season?

The Reds poor luck can be seen when comparing their run differential to their actual record. They have the best run differential in the division, and their expected record has them at 49-43, which would have them tied for first in central. That they are instead 4 games back can be largely chalked up to an unlucky distribution of runs so far this season.

[nux fan]

How about an untalented manager who is obstinate, defiant and has no appreciable learning curve

[izzy's dad]

Am I the only person that sees a few minor trades happening. I just have a feeling that something is going to happen. Nothing huge ie: Reyes, Beltran, but something along the lines of Ludwick/pitching. No proof, no insider info, just a hunch. If I am wrong come deadline time I will eat crow. Go ahead and hold me accountable, I just can't see this team as is finishing the year in its current state.

[FireDusty]

Nice effort on the write-up.

It's essentially a solid accounting.

What is perplexing to me is that we were 25-17 with the in injury issues to the rotation coming out of spring training. Once we got Homer & Cueto back, and with them pitching largely very well, the club has gone 19-29 since then, among the very worst records in all of baseball over that span.

I just hope that everyone does their respective jobs in whatever role they have because Dusty Baker will stick with them regardless of performance. Dusty will literally sit and watch 5 to 7 more blown saves from Cordero before the next intervention from Walt.

If that happens, we will be so far out of the race it won't matter.

[BAKER12]

Biting my lip, enjoy the rest of the season.

[nux fan]

baker 12 just about sums up the IQ of this manager = 12

[redssince75]

That they are instead 4 games back can be largely chalked up to an unlucky distribution of runs so far this season.

"Luck" is your explanation for wide run differentials from game to game? (also, heavily front-loaded with high scoring in April)? How about "inconsistency" or "teams have figured out how to stop us"? Seems like two better explanations than "luck".

[LegallyMinded]

"Luck" is your explanation for wide run differentials from game to game? (also, heavily front-loaded with high scoring in April)? How about "inconsistency" or "teams have figured out how to stop us"? Seems like two better explanations than "luck".

I'm not sure "inconsistency" is much of an explanation either. If the Reds are inconsistent, the real question seems to be why they are.

Besides, I wouldn't say overall offensive performance has been that inconsistent: The Reds' wOBA by month this season has gone .337, .319, .319, .315. Have they tailed off since a hot April? A bit, sure. But over the last three months, their underlying performance has been remarkably similar; its the day to day results that seem to be inconsistent, but that's something you expect to even out over time.

[DocRed]

I wish I could share your enthusiasm but I don't....we are in fourth. That means we have to be better than all 3 of those teams in the second half. I don't see that happening quite honestly.

[Vottomatic]

Biting my lip, enjoy the rest of the season.

Stick a toothpick in your mouth. It will keep you from biting your lip. It was also keep you from taking out your closer when the wheels are falling off.

:thumbup:

[Hillsdale87]

Dusty has his issues, but it's not his fault that the starters have been horrible. I put last night's loss on Dusty, but it's not his fault that Cordero didn't get the job done the previous 2 nights. If you're paying a guy $12MM, he needs to get the job done. This has been a very frustrating season. I see plenty of reasons that this team will get hot and make a run in the second half, but this team has found a way to kill any momentum for the last 3 weeks, so we'll see... But I'm not putting the blame on Dusty or on Walt. The issues this season are squarely on the shoulders of the players. Nearly every player has underperformed since the sweep of the Cardinals. There's enough talent to turn it around though.