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View Full Version : If the Reds don't trade Ramon, they're asleep at the wheel



Blitz Dorsey
07-11-2011, 10:48 AM
There are several contenders around baseball that could use a good catcher. (Giants, anyone?) The Reds need to trade Ramon Hernandez while his value is at an all-time high.

There are several other reasons why it's a good time to trade Ramon (as much as I like him) as well:

* The Reds likely aren't going anywhere this year.

* The Reds have the best minor-league catcher in baseball (sorry, Jesus Montero, but it's true) waiting in the wings at Louisville.

* If the Reds do work their way back into the race this year, the tandem of a veteran like Hanigan and a talented rook like Mesoraco would be just fine.

* If there is an injury to one of them, you still have a veteran like Corky Miller you can call up as the backup. And if all else fails, perhaps even Yasmani Grandal could fill in for a couple games as a backup in an emergency situation.

Basically, there is absolutely no reason to not trade Ramon right now. If the Reds fail to do this, I will start to lose confidence in a front office that I genuinely like.

Slyder
07-11-2011, 10:58 AM
There are several contenders around baseball that could use a good catcher. (Giants, anyone?) The Reds need to trade Ramon Hernandez while his value is at an all-time high.

There are several other reasons why it's a good time to trade Ramon (as much as I like him) as well:

* The Reds likely aren't going anywhere this year.

* The Reds have the best minor-league catcher in baseball (sorry, Jesus Montero, but it's true) waiting in the wings at Louisville.

* If the Reds do work their way back into the race this year, the tandem of a veteran like Hanigan and a talented rook like Mesoraco would be just fine.

* If there is an injury to one of them, you still have a veteran like Corky Miller you can call up as the backup. And if all else fails, perhaps even Yasmani Grandal could fill in for a couple games as a backup in an emergency situation.

Basically, there is absolutely no reason to not trade Ramon right now. If the Reds fail to do this, I will start to lose confidence in a front office that I genuinely like.

I don't think its that cut and dry. Catcher is the one position that is an incredible jump due to learning new hitters and pitchers. Its not like Mesoraco would be stepping in at SS where it just be about positioning. I do feel there is a difference between Ramon and Hanigan behind the plate and there would be a difference between them and Mes calling games. What have the scouts said about his gamecalling and handling of pitchers at AAA?

Plus Ramon with the year he's had I cannot believe would accept arby at this point and could bring something back as almost everyone always needs a catcher with the offensive potential of Hernandez. If you get good value for him thats one thing but to just trade him for the sake of trading him could be a mistake.

alexad
07-11-2011, 11:08 AM
I like Ramon but I agree. If we can get something we need to look. He will be a Free Agent again at the end of the year. Corky is a great back up if needed and he knows how to handle a staff. I thought he did a tremendous job last year. But now is the time to give the KID a chance and also allow him some time to get his feet wet. That way he can take over as the everyday catcher next year.

The question is what can you get for Ramon? Are we looking for AA prospects or some help with the Big Club?

CySeymour
07-11-2011, 11:14 AM
I like Ramon but I agree. If we can get something we need to look. He will be a Free Agent again at the end of the year. Corky is a great back up if needed and he knows how to handle a staff. I thought he did a tremendous job last year. But now is the time to give the KID a chance and also allow him some time to get his feet wet. That way he can take over as the everyday catcher next year.

The question is what can you get for Ramon? Are we looking for AA prospects or some help with the Big Club?

Good question. And I am sure the answer is "it depends." The Nationals flipped Matt Capps for their eventual starting big league catcher last year, which was a good return. If a team is close enough and really need a catcher, then they might be apt to part with a fairly valuable minor league player for Razor.

REDREAD
07-11-2011, 11:30 AM
It all depends, I guess.

Ramon is valuable to the Reds, and the Reds are still only 4 games out.
Just about everything that could go wrong in the first half has gone wrong (Other than Cueto).

My confidence for making the postseason is getting diminished, just like everyone else's.. but why trade Ramon to the Giants unless they really make it worth our while? I guess if Ramon is traded, we are going to be targeting help for the future.. I'd want someone that is either contributing in the big leagues now (not likely to happen), or someone projected to be useful ..
I'm not sure Ramon is worth that much. At his age, he really can't play every day and maintain this level of production.

I'm sure there's plenty of clubs willing to give us a Danny Dorn for him, but that's kind of pointless from the Reds point of view.

Ghosts of 1990
07-11-2011, 11:30 AM
Wouldn't mind seeing Ramon + prospect for someone who can play some IF and Outfield at the major league level and be a dependable bat.

Guacarock
07-11-2011, 11:37 AM
If the return is solid, then, yes, Ramon should be dealt this summer while his value is at its peak. Better than having him walk away without any kind of payback. A deal involving AA starting pitcher Eric Surkamp from the Giants would certainly work for me, giving us another potential horse for the rotation come 2012 or 2013.

In this scenario, Mesoraco would have to undertake a mid-season crash course to learn the Reds' pitching staff and the opposing batters. Undeniably, it would be a challenge for the kid, and there could be some stumbles along the way.

But the flip side, Mesoraco:

1. Is going to need to complete that crash course sooner or later anyway, so better to do it during a botched season than to have 2012 be marred by the same kinds of miscues and bad luck as 2011.

2. He does have some familiarity with the pitchers from spring training.

3. Hernandez's game calling isn't always the best, so Mesoraco doesn't have to be great from the start -- just good enough in that sphere.

4. Game calling can always be orchestrated by the coaches and from the bench if that's necessary.

Sea Ray
07-11-2011, 11:53 AM
If the return is solid, then, yes, Ramon should be dealt this summer while his value is at its peak.

This is the key. We can't definitively say "trade Ramon" unless we know what the return is. History shows that these types of deals usualy yields players like Matt Belisle and Micah Owings. If that's the case, I think we're best served by hanging onto him

I give a jaundiced eye to any "let's trade..." thread on RZ that doesn't mention a certain player in return. Unless we have an idea of that, how can we judge?

edabbs44
07-11-2011, 12:05 PM
The Reds are 4 out. Last year, half the division winners were 3.5 games or more out on this date.

PuffyPig
07-11-2011, 12:05 PM
Depends on the return.

IslandRed
07-11-2011, 12:17 PM
Yep. That's the hard part about trades -- we can't go to the Hypothetical Trade Value Store and cash him in like a winning scratch-off ticket. The 29 other GMs are the only ones whose opinions matter, so unless there's one specific GM who wants and needs him badly enough to part with real value, no trade will happen.

It's easy enough to construct the scenario where a team like the Giants should want and need Hernandez, but maybe they don't see him quite as favorably as we do, or they think they can land a decent catcher elsewhere for less, or they won't part with the only players the Reds would accept in return. Who knows.

HokieRed
07-11-2011, 12:19 PM
The appropriate timetable for Mesoraco has to be, IMO, a priority. If he needs the rest of the season hitting AAA pitching and learning more about how to catch, then he should stay there. The kid's too big a potential talent to fool around with. That doesn't mean we shouldn't trade Ramon. But if we do, I wouldn't count Mesoraco immediately into the mix. Play Hanigan 6 out of 7 till Sept. 1, then bring Mes.

dunner13
07-11-2011, 12:25 PM
Ramon has been getting big hits all year and seems to be doing a great job with the pitchers. So I say we hang onto him and trade Hanigan. Let Ramon and Mes split time for the rest of the year with Ramon tutoring the rookie and helping him work with the pitchers. If Mes struggles and we are making a run in the playoffs then you play ramon more if we start to fall out of it then you play mes more. Hanigan is a nice piece but to me it looks like hes the one we need the least right now.

Oxilon
07-11-2011, 12:26 PM
So, we're sellers now?

pahster
07-11-2011, 12:27 PM
Wouldn't mind seeing Ramon + prospect for someone who can play some IF and Outfield at the major league level and be a dependable bat.

Sounds like Todd Frazier.

Slyder
07-11-2011, 12:44 PM
The Reds are 4 out. Last year, half the division winners were 3.5 games or more out on this date.

And then get embarrassed by Philly just like last year? If we're going to make the playoffs I want at least a slight glimmer of hope of at least making it a competitive series. Against Halladay, Hamel, and Lee that just won't happen.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-11-2011, 12:46 PM
If the return is solid, then, yes, Ramon should be dealt this summer while his value is at its peak. Better than having him walk away without any kind of payback. A deal involving AA starting pitcher Eric Surkamp from the Giants would certainly work for me, giving us another potential horse for the rotation come 2012 or 2013.

In this scenario, Mesoraco would have to undertake a mid-season crash course to learn the Reds' pitching staff and the opposing batters. Undeniably, it would be a challenge for the kid, and there could be some stumbles along the way.

But the flip side, Mesoraco:

1. Is going to need to complete that crash course sooner or later anyway, so better to do it during a botched season than to have 2012 be marred by the same kinds of miscues and bad luck as 2011.

2. He does have some familiarity with the pitchers from spring training.

3. Hernandez's game calling isn't always the best, so Mesoraco doesn't have to be great from the start -- just good enough in that sphere.

4. Game calling can always be orchestrated by the coaches and from the bench if that's necessary.

While I'd love to see this trade, I have a hard time imagining that SF would trade away an Eric Surkamp for a rental. On the flip side, if the G's are serious about getting past Philly and repeating their World Series run of last year, they need to upgrade at catcher and get a little more pop in that offense - which Ramon would provide. They'll win that division with or without him though.

edabbs44
07-11-2011, 01:04 PM
And then get embarrassed by Philly just like last year? If we're going to make the playoffs I want at least a slight glimmer of hope of at least making it a competitive series. Against Halladay, Hamel, and Lee that just won't happen.

That's trash.

edabbs44
07-11-2011, 01:07 PM
So, we're sellers now?

Redszone: If you're not first, you're last.

nemesis
07-11-2011, 01:23 PM
I have a hard time imagining that SF would trade away an Eric Surkamp for a rental.

Agreed but it's rental with a Type A tag to boot. So two additional pics for Surkamp might help and if it came down to it, add Frazier to the mix since LF, 3B, 2B and 1B all have players who have been injured or slumping.

reds1869
07-11-2011, 01:32 PM
And then get embarrassed by Philly just like last year? If we're going to make the playoffs I want at least a slight glimmer of hope of at least making it a competitive series. Against Halladay, Hamel, and Lee that just won't happen.

Well, I know this: I'll take being swept in the playoffs over not making them every single time.

MikeS21
07-11-2011, 01:36 PM
If you could go back and eliminate five bad innings from the first half - whether they be a first inning meltdown by a starter, a ninth inning implosion by the closer, an error, a strikeout by a Reds' hitter with runners in scoring position - just erase five bad innings - this team is in first place. Erase ten bad innings and this team is in first place with a 4-5 game lead.

It's too early to throw in the towel, considering that history shows this team is a better second half team than first half team.

dougdirt
07-11-2011, 01:43 PM
It isn't about throwing in the towel, its about maximizing your teams assets. Ramon Hernandez will not be a Cincinnati Reds player next year. It isn't going to happen. The Reds aren't going to offer him arbitration either because he will accept it and they don't want that because of Mesoraco and Hanigan. So the Reds have to trade him if they want to get anything for him.

In my opinion, Mesoraco is ready. Both at the plate and behind it. I always chuckle when I hear that catchers need to learn the leagues hitters and it takes time. I can promise you that he will get the same scouting reports pre game that Hanigan and Hernandez were getting and that he can read them just fine. I can also promise you that if a guy looks silly on a breaking ball in the 2nd inning that he will remember that in the 7th inning.

Between rehab of guys and spring training, he has caught just about every one of our pitchers and most of them he has probably caught quite a bit.

So now the question is, do you really think the Reds have a chance at winning the division? If so, the next question is will Ramon Hernandez truly outplay Devin Mesoraco the rest of the season? If so, by how much? Is that amount worth letting him walk at the end of the year and getting absolutely nothing in return for him?

I wouldn't just trade Hernandez for peanuts to get Mesoraco here. But I think that you could get a solid return for his services.

Guacarock
07-11-2011, 02:04 PM
While I'd love to see this trade, I have a hard time imagining that SF would trade away an Eric Surkamp for a rental. On the flip side, if the G's are serious about getting past Philly and repeating their World Series run of last year, they need to upgrade at catcher and get a little more pop in that offense - which Ramon would provide. They'll win that division with or without him though.

You're absolutely right. Hernandez by his lonesome probably would not net us Surkamp. Hernandez is raking this year, but he's also getting old and will be a FA after the season, so the Giants would be acquiring him as a rental player.

At the same time, if I'm the Reds, I would not be inclined to move Hernandez for a lesser talent than Surkamp. As one of the other posters noted, what's the good of losing such a hot bat for a middling pitcher like Micah Owings or Matt Belisle?

The solution? We simply augment Hernandez with another player the Giants want to shore up their offense. That could be an MLB-ready prospect like Frazier who isn't currently on our 25-man roster or perhaps someone else off our roster whom we intend to upgrade. Lewis, for instance, could be the sweetener. He's played for the Giants before and could help fortify their bench.

It wouldn't be a capitulation on the season, either, for the Reds, if we turned around and then upgraded LF by acquiring Beltran, Cuddyer, Ludwick, Melky Cabrera, Willingham, etc. The fans wouldn't at all perceive that we were sellers or selling out, but instead see the team making a smart move to improve both for the present and for the future. That's always the way to go, if you ask me.

Kc61
07-11-2011, 02:09 PM
The Reds are 4 out. Last year, half the division winners were 3.5 games or more out on this date.

The Reds are four out, but behind three teams. For the Reds to make the playoffs they have to pick up four or five games on three different teams.

Not that easy.

The other three clubs are unlikely to capitulate. Will all three fade?

And if they do fade, will the Reds be hot enough to overcome them all?

IMO, the Reds should trade Ramon and Cordero for whatever value they can get. I would probably trade Heisey too, I don't see him having a place with this club long term. Maybe one or two others.

I would also consider adding some of the AAA talent to sweeten the trade if necessary.

edabbs44
07-11-2011, 02:11 PM
Agreed but it's rental with a Type A tag to boot. So two additional pics for Surkamp might help and if it came down to it, add Frazier to the mix since LF, 3B, 2B and 1B all have players who have been injured or slumping.

Type A works if he declines...and he might not.

Nasty_Boy
07-11-2011, 02:20 PM
It isn't about throwing in the towel, its about maximizing your teams assets. Ramon Hernandez will not be a Cincinnati Reds player next year. It isn't going to happen. The Reds aren't going to offer him arbitration either because he will accept it and they don't want that because of Mesoraco and Hanigan. So the Reds have to trade him if they want to get anything for him.

In my opinion, Mesoraco is ready. Both at the plate and behind it. I always chuckle when I hear that catchers need to learn the leagues hitters and it takes time. I can promise you that he will get the same scouting reports pre game that Hanigan and Hernandez were getting and that he can read them just fine. I can also promise you that if a guy looks silly on a breaking ball in the 2nd inning that he will remember that in the 7th inning.

Between rehab of guys and spring training, he has caught just about every one of our pitchers and most of them he has probably caught quite a bit.

So now the question is, do you really think the Reds have a chance at winning the division? If so, the next question is will Ramon Hernandez truly outplay Devin Mesoraco the rest of the season? If so, by how much? Is that amount worth letting him walk at the end of the year and getting absolutely nothing in return for him?

I wouldn't just trade Hernandez for peanuts to get Mesoraco here. But I think that you could get a solid return for his services.

Agree with every single word!

HokieRed
07-11-2011, 02:37 PM
Excellent post by Doug. I'm on for trading Ramon if Mesoraco is truly ready to come in and play half time, at the least.

Ron Madden
07-11-2011, 02:43 PM
It isn't about throwing in the towel, its about maximizing your teams assets. Ramon Hernandez will not be a Cincinnati Reds player next year. It isn't going to happen. The Reds aren't going to offer him arbitration either because he will accept it and they don't want that because of Mesoraco and Hanigan. So the Reds have to trade him if they want to get anything for him.

In my opinion, Mesoraco is ready. Both at the plate and behind it. I always chuckle when I hear that catchers need to learn the leagues hitters and it takes time. I can promise you that he will get the same scouting reports pre game that Hanigan and Hernandez were getting and that he can read them just fine. I can also promise you that if a guy looks silly on a breaking ball in the 2nd inning that he will remember that in the 7th inning.

Between rehab of guys and spring training, he has caught just about every one of our pitchers and most of them he has probably caught quite a bit.

So now the question is, do you really think the Reds have a chance at winning the division? If so, the next question is will Ramon Hernandez truly outplay Devin Mesoraco the rest of the season? If so, by how much? Is that amount worth letting him walk at the end of the year and getting absolutely nothing in return for him?

I wouldn't just trade Hernandez for peanuts to get Mesoraco here. But I think that you could get a solid return for his services.

Add me to the list of those who agree with Doug on this one.

edabbs44
07-11-2011, 03:07 PM
Excellent post by Doug. I'm on for trading Ramon if Mesoraco is truly ready to come in and play half time, at the least.

After watching Matt Weiters, we should be careful about this.

Oxilon
07-11-2011, 03:10 PM
After watching Matt Weiters, we should be careful about this.

Or Ben Davis or any young catcher for that matter.

bucksfan2
07-11-2011, 03:11 PM
It isn't about throwing in the towel, its about maximizing your teams assets. Ramon Hernandez will not be a Cincinnati Reds player next year. It isn't going to happen. The Reds aren't going to offer him arbitration either because he will accept it and they don't want that because of Mesoraco and Hanigan. So the Reds have to trade him if they want to get anything for him.

There is the crux of your argument. Would Hernandez accept arbitration from the Reds? You seem pretty adamant that he would but I don't know. He may try to parlay this season into a multi-year deal. With productive catching so scarce in MLB I wouldn't doubt it. So if he would decline arbitration it brings into the mix a whole new set of questions.



In my opinion, Mesoraco is ready. Both at the plate and behind it. I always chuckle when I hear that catchers need to learn the leagues hitters and it takes time. I can promise you that he will get the same scouting reports pre game that Hanigan and Hernandez were getting and that he can read them just fine. I can also promise you that if a guy looks silly on a breaking ball in the 2nd inning that he will remember that in the 7th inning.

Would he be an overall upgrade on Ramon. The Reds don't have to trade him, especially if they think he would decline arbitration. I also don't get the notion that the Reds are throwing in the towel so you would also have to consider whether or not there would be a drop off this season from Ramon to Mes.

You have to consider that he would be calling a game between major league players not AAA or AAAA type players. Its a lot to assume that a rookie catcher could come in and handle the pitching staff without a problem. In the 8th inning of a tie game its not All Star Jeremy Hermidia coming to the plate its All Star Matt Holliday.

I don't think that Mes would be as productive as Hernandez this season. I don't know how big of a drop off it would be, but in essence you would be weakening the club.


Between rehab of guys and spring training, he has caught just about every one of our pitchers and most of them he has probably caught quite a bit.

So now the question is, do you really think the Reds have a chance at winning the division? If so, the next question is will Ramon Hernandez truly outplay Devin Mesoraco the rest of the season? If so, by how much? Is that amount worth letting him walk at the end of the year and getting absolutely nothing in return for him?

I wouldn't just trade Hernandez for peanuts to get Mesoraco here. But I think that you could get a solid return for his services.

This gets back to my two biggest questions. Would Hernandez accept arbitration and would Mesoraco be an upgrade? If the answer is yes to both of them then you actively shop him. If the answer is no to either one it complicates the situation more and if the answer is no to both of them you have to hold Hernandez out until the right package comes along.

traderumor
07-11-2011, 03:29 PM
I don't think "calling a game" is really that big of an issue. The bench can call pitches with a young catcher. Hanigan seems like a sharp dude that would be very helpful in showing Mes the ropes and help him. And the way our pitchers can't execute good pitches anyhow, calling a game is the least of our worries.

I'd like to see us put Ramon on the market because I think he is in a high demand position and is a rare good hit catcher that can also play average D.

LoganBuck
07-11-2011, 03:45 PM
1. Catching is always scarce and Hernandez found his way back to Cincinnati again this year. Catchers are a funny group kind of like middle relievers, they have good years and bad years with the bat. The only thing they can control is their defense. Which Ramon has just been ok with this season. Looking at it objectively for 2012 and beyond, no one is going to give an aging veteran catcher 2+ years guaranteed. So he will likely be looking for a nice one year contract with an option. If he doesn't get a number he likes, I envision him accepting arbitration.

2. Too much is made of how a catcher calls a game imo. Anymore they spend the bulk of the time looking to the dugout for their cues between pitches. I think it has more to do with a catcher provide a good target to throw to, and being assertive with the pitcher.

3. Mesoraco is ready. Teams like the Reds have to maximize resources. Trading Hernandez for a (for the sake of argument) young pitcher like Surkamp, is what a team like the Reds must do. They must be conservative with their budget and shrewd in their moves.

camisadelgolf
07-11-2011, 03:57 PM
Will you still be singing this tune if Hernandez gets the game-winning hit that sends the Reds to the playoffs? Also, what do you do if Mesoraco gets injured after you trade Hernandez?

Kc61
07-11-2011, 04:03 PM
Will you still be singing this tune if Hernandez gets the game-winning hit that sends the Reds to the playoffs? Also, what do you do if Mesoraco gets injured after you trade Hernandez?

There are always what ifs. What if the Reds keep Ramon and HE gets hurt? What if Ramon goes into a slump and his value declines? What if the Reds keep Ramon and he fails in big spots?

You can't keep everybody and you can't play everybody.

Seems to me that Ramon is at peak value, Reds have a good young substitue in Mes. Mes can use the time this year to learn the ropes. Mes has a good bat and may well do a good job even as a rookie.

Reds are in fourth place below .500. There is at least one team, if not more, desperate for a catcher.

And, the Reds have Grandal. So if Mes gets hurt or disappoints, by mid-2012 the Reds will have another young catcher to try.

To me, the argument for a trade is overwhelming.

camisadelgolf
07-11-2011, 04:25 PM
I agree that his value will never be higher, but what kind of message are you sending? "Thank you for the sacrifices you've made to the team--you easily could've been paid more elsewhere, and on top of that, you would've received more playing time--so to thank you for your services, and our reward to you for overachieving and helping us stay in the playoff race is trading you for a minor leaguer who someday projects to be a role player."

Brutus
07-11-2011, 04:46 PM
I disagree with Doug. If you're still in the race, it's sending the message you're throwing in the towel even if that's not the case. Mesoraco may very well be ready, but it doesn't mean he's going to start producing at this level right away. The learning curve in the majors can be steep.

I'm not opposed to trading Ramon or anyone else, but I would give it another two weeks before that decision is made. If after the next two weeks they're not making progress, I think I'd go ahead and maximize their assets, as Doug said.

traderumor
07-11-2011, 04:47 PM
Will you still be singing this tune if Hernandez gets the game-winning hit that sends the Reds to the playoffs? Also, what do you do if Mesoraco gets injured after you trade Hernandez?As Kc61 has already indicated, there is always risk. The what-ifs you mention could just as soon be true of Mes. Who gets the game winning hit in any game is a random event. I would fire a GM who refused to trade a guy citing examples like yours.

The reason to trade Hernandez now is his performance and to trade from a position of strength to strengthen a weakness. That reduces the risk that Ramon's worth is not lost within a season that has a high likelihood of going nowhere. But if the team does get hot, I'm not sure that it will hinge on Ramon's production, and I'm fine with taking a battery of Hanigan and Mes to the playoffs.

traderumor
07-11-2011, 04:50 PM
I disagree with Doug. If you're still in the race, it's sending the message you're throwing in the towel even if that's not the case. Mesoraco may very well be ready, but it doesn't mean he's going to start producing at this level right away. The learning curve in the majors can be steep.

I'm not opposed to trading Ramon or anyone else, but I would give it another two weeks before that decision is made. If after the next two weeks they're not making progress, I think I'd go ahead and maximize their assets, as Doug said.
The recent pattern has been that the closer your deal gets to the non-waiver deadline, the lower the return. Wait until the waiver deadline and you're lucky to get anyone who ever sniffs the high minors, let alone the majors. With only a few weeks to go before the first deadline, time is of the essence.

I would think that the message the team gets is "we need to get better, so we're making moves to get better."

durl
07-11-2011, 04:59 PM
So, we're sellers now?

I don't know trading Ramon would define the Reds as sellers, just "investors" with a hopeful return in the very near future...perhaps this season. If the Reds were to get the right player I'd be OK with running with Hannigan and Mesoraco for the 2nd half.

Brutus
07-11-2011, 05:01 PM
The recent pattern has been that the closer your deal gets to the non-waiver deadline, the lower the return. Wait until the waiver deadline and you're lucky to get anyone who ever sniffs the high minors, let alone the majors. With only a few weeks to go before the first deadline, time is of the essence.

I would think that the message the team gets is "we need to get better, so we're making moves to get better."

Fourteen days is not going to change the return IMHO. Whatever teams are willing to pay next week, they're likely going to pay the same the week after. What you say might be true if we're talking mid-June compared to late-July. But this close to the deadline, I don't think it makes a bit of difference.

Also, let's not forget, the Giants are badly in need of a catcher. If we're discussing whether or not the Reds should trade Ramon, they, not the Giants, hold the leverage in the negotiations.

As far as sending messages, trading Ramon doesn't send that message. It sends the message "we're building for the future."

camisadelgolf
07-11-2011, 05:29 PM
As Kc61 has already indicated, there is always risk. The what-ifs you mention could just as soon be true of Mes. Who gets the game winning hit in any game is a random event. I would fire a GM who refused to trade a guy citing examples like yours.

The reason to trade Hernandez now is his performance and to trade from a position of strength to strengthen a weakness. That reduces the risk that Ramon's worth is not lost within a season that has a high likelihood of going nowhere. But if the team does get hot, I'm not sure that it will hinge on Ramon's production, and I'm fine with taking a battery of Hanigan and Mes to the playoffs.
Yes, I know that the player to get the game-winning hit is a random event, but you missed the point.

Anyway, you would fire a GM for making a team only four games back at the All-Star break go for the division instead of packing it in? Yikes. You would've fired a lot of GMs who eventually went on to win the World Series in that case.

If the Reds want to pick it in, fine--but being only four games out at the All-Star break seems like a horrible time to do it. Every year, teams go through slumps--even the best teams. Trading Hernandez is waving the white flag, and I think it would kill morale for 2011 on top of hurting morale in future years. It's important to have management that shows belief.

mdccclxix
07-11-2011, 05:54 PM
Trading Ramon could easily be sold to Reds fans when bringing up Mesoraco is the corresponding move. Most Reds fans know their farm system has been the reason for success. If the return is great for Ramon, let's do it. However, it's not happening because Walt and Dusty will worry excessively about Ramon's relationship to this already tentative pitching staff. He's also a solid bat, I mean we're not trading trash.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-11-2011, 05:57 PM
Will you still be singing this tune if Hernandez gets the game-winning hit that sends the Reds to the playoffs? Also, what do you do if Mesoraco gets injured after you trade Hernandez?

And what do you do if you don't make the trade and on Aug. 1 if Hernandez gets injured and is out for the year? Corky Miller would be the backup plan, I would think, if Mes goes down.

IslandRed
07-11-2011, 05:57 PM
A few comments for the sake of comments:


I agree that his value will never be higher, but what kind of message are you sending? "Thank you for the sacrifices you've made to the team--you easily could've been paid more elsewhere, and on top of that, you would've received more playing time--so to thank you for your services, and our reward to you for overachieving and helping us stay in the playoff race is trading you for a minor leaguer who someday projects to be a role player."

If he's being sent to a team with a better chance of making the playoffs than the Reds, Hernandez might choose not to be insulted.


The recent pattern has been that the closer your deal gets to the non-waiver deadline, the lower the return. Wait until the waiver deadline and you're lucky to get anyone who ever sniffs the high minors, let alone the majors. With only a few weeks to go before the first deadline, time is of the essence.

I don't think that's necessarily true, although I think trade returns do take a hit after July 31. But even if it was, you just described the reason the other half of the two-to-tango likes to wait. Longer into the season = more sellers = better deals.


Also, let's not forget, the Giants are badly in need of a catcher. If we're discussing whether or not the Reds should trade Ramon, they, not the Giants, hold the leverage in the negotiations.

The Reds do have what the Giants need, but all the Giants need to walk away from the table is one other team who will trade a decent catcher for less. They're three games ahead in the division, they can afford to wait and see what else might pop up in the market.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-11-2011, 06:02 PM
The Reds do have what the Giants need, but all the Giants need to walk away from the table is one other team who will trade a decent catcher for less. They're three games ahead in the division, they can afford to wait and see what else might pop up in the market.

How many teams out there are stocked at the catcher position that can afford to trade a player of Hernandez' caliber?

It's a perfect storm for the Reds to maximize Ramon's value: He's a free agent after the year and won't be a huge commitment for the team that acquires him; he's having a great year; there is a team (Giants) who desperately need to upgrade the catcher position but just for the rest of this year; the Reds aren't going to bring him back anyway and have a player in AAA ready to step in.

It just makes too much sense to explore a trade with SF ... Unfortunately, I'm not sure our current GM thinks that way.

IslandRed
07-11-2011, 06:43 PM
How many teams out there are stocked at the catcher position that can afford to trade a player of Hernandez' caliber?

It's a perfect storm for the Reds to maximize Ramon's value: He's a free agent after the year and won't be a huge commitment for the team that acquires him; he's having a great year; there is a team (Giants) who desperately need to upgrade the catcher position but just for the rest of this year; the Reds aren't going to bring him back anyway and have a player in AAA ready to step in.

It just makes too much sense to explore a trade with SF ... Unfortunately, I'm not sure our current GM thinks that way.

It makes sense to explore a trade with San Francisco. I'm just saying that we don't necessarily have them over a barrel yet. Hernandez is likely the best of the potentially available veteran catchers but it's highly unlikely he'll be the only decent one, so if the Giants decide they can live with one of those other guys if it means not handing over a blue chip...

edabbs44
07-11-2011, 07:05 PM
How many teams out there are stocked at the catcher position that can afford to trade a player of Hernandez' caliber?

It's a perfect storm for the Reds to maximize Ramon's value: He's a free agent after the year and won't be a huge commitment for the team that acquires him; he's having a great year; there is a team (Giants) who desperately need to upgrade the catcher position but just for the rest of this year; the Reds aren't going to bring him back anyway and have a player in AAA ready to step in.

It just makes too much sense to explore a trade with SF ... Unfortunately, I'm not sure our current GM thinks that way.

Maybe there will be exploration. Maybe there already has been. Maybe Walt determines that they aren't offering enough vs keeping him and potentially getting multiple DPs out of it.

edabbs44
07-11-2011, 07:09 PM
Theres no reason to jump the gun here. The Reds could be 8 out in 2 weeks or tied for first. This decision will likely go down to the wire.

mdccclxix
07-11-2011, 07:17 PM
OK,

Ramon, Stubbs and Wood for Cain.

Do it!

Griffey012
07-11-2011, 07:54 PM
It isn't about throwing in the towel, its about maximizing your teams assets. Ramon Hernandez will not be a Cincinnati Reds player next year. It isn't going to happen. The Reds aren't going to offer him arbitration either because he will accept it and they don't want that because of Mesoraco and Hanigan. So the Reds have to trade him if they want to get anything for him.

In my opinion, Mesoraco is ready. Both at the plate and behind it. I always chuckle when I hear that catchers need to learn the leagues hitters and it takes time. I can promise you that he will get the same scouting reports pre game that Hanigan and Hernandez were getting and that he can read them just fine. I can also promise you that if a guy looks silly on a breaking ball in the 2nd inning that he will remember that in the 7th inning.

Between rehab of guys and spring training, he has caught just about every one of our pitchers and most of them he has probably caught quite a bit.

So now the question is, do you really think the Reds have a chance at winning the division? If so, the next question is will Ramon Hernandez truly outplay Devin Mesoraco the rest of the season? If so, by how much? Is that amount worth letting him walk at the end of the year and getting absolutely nothing in return for him?

I wouldn't just trade Hernandez for peanuts to get Mesoraco here. But I think that you could get a solid return for his services.

Hernandez has been arguably our 4th best offensive player this season, if I had any complaints it would be that it has been a near 50/50 split between Ramon/Hanigan when Ramon has been on a roll all year long, and hit well last season also. Unless we are out of contention I can't foresee trading a guy who has been so valuable offensively at the catching position.

My question is why not trade Hanigan for less of a return, offer Ramon arbitration, if he accepts it we have him for another season to split time and ease in Mesoraco, and we have a dependable option if Mez flops and needs to go back to AAA for more seasoning before he is ready. If he declines it and someone signs him then here we go extra draft picks. After next year Ramon is gone for good and we have Mez/Grandal.

If we trade Ramon we have a question mark at catcher the rest of the season. Hanigan is not a 140 game type of catcher, Mez has a bright future but you never know how a prospect is going to start in the bigs. Not to mention we have a question mark there the following season as well (I am not knocking on Mez by any means it is just that he is an unproven asset.)

Hanigan may carry as much value on the market since he would not be a rental, has shown he is a valuable part time catcher, and is better defensively.

Roy Tucker
07-11-2011, 07:58 PM
Maybe there will be exploration. Maybe there already has been. Maybe Walt determines that they aren't offering enough vs keeping him and potentially getting multiple DPs out of it.

Yep.

This is always what slays me. We all act like we know better than the GMs around the league and why can't they see what we see and what a bunch of morons they are and I could do a better job.

But I guarantee you that all kinds of discussions and feelers and possible scenarios are getting discussed many times a day. GMs aren't dummies and they aren't sitting in their office watching The Young And The Restless and eating chocolate bon-bons waiting for the phone to ring. Those guys pull probably a 16-20 hour day 7 days a week and are on the phone constantly and in meetings with staff and other teams. Sure you have guys that are slow to act and some that are quick on the trigger, but they are *all* well-informed on a minute-to-minute basis as to what is going on in the game.

dougdirt
07-11-2011, 08:08 PM
My question is why not trade Hanigan for less of a return, offer Ramon arbitration, if he accepts it we have him for another season to split time and ease in Mesoraco, and we have a dependable option if Mez flops and needs to go back to AAA for more seasoning before he is ready. If he declines it and someone signs him then here we go extra draft picks. After next year Ramon is gone for good and we have Mez/Grandal.

Probably because Hanigan is signed for multiple years going forward. If you trade him and keep Ramon, then Ramon leaves for free agency you are left with Mesoraco and Corky Miller as your catchers next year with Yasmani Grandal as your back up when one of those guys goes to the DL. That is a move that you simply can't make because it could play out that way.



If we trade Ramon we have a question mark at catcher the rest of the season. Hanigan is not a 140 game type of catcher, Mez has a bright future but you never know how a prospect is going to start in the bigs. Not to mention we have a question mark there the following season as well (I am not knocking on Mez by any means it is just that he is an unproven asset.)
This could be true. But we would have the best question mark in the minor leagues coming up to play catcher for us and would also be adding talent back from the trade. That is a risk I am willing to take on a guy who is more likely to be a .780 OPS hitter the rest of the way than the .900 OPS guy he has been this year.

traderumor
07-11-2011, 08:15 PM
Yes, I know that the player to get the game-winning hit is a random event, but you missed the point.

Anyway, you would fire a GM for making a team only four games back at the All-Star break go for the division instead of packing it in? Yikes. You would've fired a lot of GMs who eventually went on to win the World Series in that case.

If the Reds want to pick it in, fine--but being only four games out at the All-Star break seems like a horrible time to do it. Every year, teams go through slumps--even the best teams. Trading Hernandez is waving the white flag, and I think it would kill morale for 2011 on top of hurting morale in future years. It's important to have management that shows belief.
So, last year the Giants traded their veteran catcher in season because they had a rookie knocking on the door. It raised eyebrows because of a certain mindset similar to what I'm hearing now from those against such a bold move as trading one of Hernanigan. The rookie came in and excelled.

Is that a model? No, but it is an example where a team took a measured risk and came out looking like geniuses.

Now he's injured and the Giants might be looking for a catcher. So, by what I'm hearing from you, they should have kept Molina because Posey eventually got hurt.

Speaking of missing the point, I would fire a GM who provided what-ifs similar to yours. Those are just commonalities of the game that should NEVER enter decision making at the level of trading a producing starter. Sure, the Reds are 4 games out, but let's be honest, only because they are in the cruddy NL Central. If they were in a division where there is actually a good team, this record would be cause for a major moves discussion.

I'm starting to join the camp that says "so what if we win the division this year while making little to no roster changes? Are we competing for championships with this roster?"

Add to that ripe fruit rotting on the vine at AAA, and I'm starting to get nervous that we're either missing opportunities to be a better team (like my sig, can't win with 'em, can't win without 'em) or our prospects are overrated.

Oxilon
07-11-2011, 08:15 PM
I don't know trading Ramon would define the Reds as sellers, just "investors" with a hopeful return in the very near future...perhaps this season. If the Reds were to get the right player I'd be OK with running with Hannigan and Mesoraco for the 2nd half.

I completely understand what you're saying, but trading your starting catcher who has been playing very well, when your only a few games out (record is irrelevant) is going to send a poor message to the club.

traderumor
07-11-2011, 08:21 PM
I don't get why all the hand wringing about the message it sends. Its potentially a good baseball move. Sean Casey doesn't play for the Reds anymore. I don't think there will be a big crying party if a good player is traded for a fair return. And fans reacting? Let WLW get a ratings boost. Billy Cunningham can go on for weeks about how stupid it a move it was, then backtrack when it ends up working out.

Slyder
07-11-2011, 08:36 PM
I don't get why all the hand wringing about the message it sends. Its potentially a good baseball move. Sean Casey doesn't play for the Reds anymore. I don't think there will be a big crying party if a good player is traded for a fair return. And fans reacting? Let WLW get a ratings boost. Billy Cunningham can go on for weeks about how stupid it a move it was, then backtrack when it ends up working out.

How many people wanted to run Bronson and Wayne out of town immediately because he wasn't Wily Mo Pena?

schroomytunes
07-11-2011, 08:47 PM
Maybe the Reds are asking too much for Hernandez, the Giants know he is a rental player and may not want to give up alot, guys I like in the Giants oraganization are:

1)Eric Surkamp-SP AA may crack rotation 2013
2)Brandon Belt-LF AAA potential to start 2013, 4th OF late 2012
3)Conor Gilaspie-3B AAA depth at a position of need after Rolen
4)Hector Correa-RP AA
5)Chris Heston-SP A+
6)Jacob Dunnington-RP A+

I like Surkamp alot, but not real impressed with their other pitching prospects above AA, but I dont think they will deal him. Also, I think Belt/Gilaspie are decent prospects and would like to land 1 of them in the deal along with 1 of the above (4-6) players. I truly would like to land Belt and Heston in the deal, but it's up to Walt.

traderumor
07-11-2011, 08:51 PM
How many people wanted to run Bronson and Wayne out of town immediately because he wasn't Wily Mo Pena?That's why you don't make populist moves if you're a GM. You make baseball and/or business moves.

Brutus
07-11-2011, 08:53 PM
I don't get why all the hand wringing about the message it sends. Its potentially a good baseball move. Sean Casey doesn't play for the Reds anymore. I don't think there will be a big crying party if a good player is traded for a fair return. And fans reacting? Let WLW get a ratings boost. Billy Cunningham can go on for weeks about how stupid it a move it was, then backtrack when it ends up working out.

Why the hand-wringing? What about attendance?

After the lost decade, the Reds' attendance this year is showing a small increase (finally). Now after one year in the playoffs and being less than five games out, why would you want to alienate the fan base by trading popular players? That message is damaging to the revenue stream.

traderumor
07-11-2011, 08:56 PM
Why the hand-wringing? What about attendance?

After the lost decade, the Reds' attendance this year is showing a small increase (finally). Now after one year in the playoffs and being less than five games out, why would you want to alienate the fan base by trading popular players? That message is damaging to the revenue stream.Because I don't think Ramon Hernandez sells or prevents the selling of tickets. If he does, boy, our fans are sooooooo sophisticated.

Listen to what you are saying: "You know that Reds game we were gonna go see kids? Forget it, the Reds just traded their platooning catcher. They're giving in." Sounds a little far fetched to me.

Griffey012
07-11-2011, 09:10 PM
Probably because Hanigan is signed for multiple years going forward. If you trade him and keep Ramon, then Ramon leaves for free agency you are left with Mesoraco and Corky Miller as your catchers next year with Yasmani Grandal as your back up when one of those guys goes to the DL. That is a move that you simply can't make because it could play out that way.


That is making the assumption we can't trade a marginal prospect for a decent backup catcher, or sign a Rod Barajas, Ramon Castro, or Jose Molina type for not much money, not to mention there will be a handful of catcher who get exposed to waivers or released in the off-season who can become available.

I get the feeling once Mez is here he is going to be the catcher nearly full-time. His defense has came a long way from what I hear, so unless he absolutely fails with the bat in the bigs he should stick. Which makes the backup catcher a less important role.

edabbs44
07-11-2011, 09:36 PM
Because I don't think Ramon Hernandez sells or prevents the selling of tickets. If he does, boy, our fans are sooooooo sophisticated.

Listen to what you are saying: "You know that Reds game we were gonna go see kids? Forget it, the Reds just traded their platooning catcher. They're giving in." Sounds a little far fetched to me.

Platooning catcher who has the 2nd highest OPS on the team and a number of "clutch" hits this season. Fans will see that as a negative, unless the return is very positive.

The other thing that no one (I think) is mentioning is the embarrassment of riches that SF has in the bullpen.

Roy Tucker
07-11-2011, 09:46 PM
Because I don't think Ramon Hernandez sells or prevents the selling of tickets. If he does, boy, our fans are sooooooo sophisticated.

Listen to what you are saying: "You know that Reds game we were gonna go see kids? Forget it, the Reds just traded their platooning catcher. They're giving in." Sounds a little far fetched to me.

Yeah, you don't see a lot of Ramon Hernandez jerseys around GABP.

Someone mentioned this before and I'll repeat it, I think this would be a palatable message to send to Reds fans to trade Henandez for a fairly good prospect and pair that up with bringing Mesoraco up to the bigs, i.e. "we're making a prudent business decision and cashing in a chip and also bringing up a bright prospect". I'd be perfectly fine with it.

I personally would be fine with it and I wouldn't view it as wavng the white flag.

kaldaniels
07-11-2011, 09:46 PM
I don't know what could be done to change it, but I bet most casual Reds fans are not up to speed on the fact that Mes is practically the best catching prospect in the game. If they were, you would actually have the masses salivating to have Mes get the call, making trading Ramon a positive to them.

But my goodness, has Ramon ever earned his paycheck the past few years here. A class act all the way.

camisadelgolf
07-11-2011, 10:10 PM
So, last year the Giants traded their veteran catcher in season because they had a rookie knocking on the door. It raised eyebrows because of a certain mindset similar to what I'm hearing now from those against such a bold move as trading one of Hernanigan. The rookie came in and excelled.

Is that a model? No, but it is an example where a team took a measured risk and came out looking like geniuses.

Now he's injured and the Giants might be looking for a catcher. So, by what I'm hearing from you, they should have kept Molina because Posey eventually got hurt.

Speaking of missing the point, I would fire a GM who provided what-ifs similar to yours. Those are just commonalities of the game that should NEVER enter decision making at the level of trading a producing starter. Sure, the Reds are 4 games out, but let's be honest, only because they are in the cruddy NL Central. If they were in a division where there is actually a good team, this record would be cause for a major moves discussion.

I'm starting to join the camp that says "so what if we win the division this year while making little to no roster changes? Are we competing for championships with this roster?"

Add to that ripe fruit rotting on the vine at AAA, and I'm starting to get nervous that we're either missing opportunities to be a better team (like my sig, can't win with 'em, can't win without 'em) or our prospects are overrated.
The Buster Posey and Devin Mesoraco situations are apples and oranges. First of all, many people considered Buster Posey to be the best catching prospect since Joe Mauer. Second of all, catching was a weakness for the Giants, so they traded from that weakness without upgrading anywhere else in the organization. The whole point was to move Molina to make room for Posey, who they felt was a clear upgrade. Is Mesoraco a clear upgrade over Hernandez in 2011? I really doubt it, but no matter how you feel about it, the answer is hardly "clear".

As for your other points, I'll just disagree and try to leave it at that. If the Reds enter the post-season without major changes to the roster, I agree that it's unlikely they'll win the World Series, but I think the playoff experience will be very helpful in future seasons. And which recent Reds prospects have rotted as a result of spending too much time in AAA?

IslandRed
07-11-2011, 11:40 PM
The Buster Posey and Devin Mesoraco situations are apples and oranges. First of all, many people considered Buster Posey to be the best catching prospect since Joe Mauer. Second of all, catching was a weakness for the Giants, so they traded from that weakness without upgrading anywhere else in the organization. The whole point was to move Molina to make room for Posey, who they felt was a clear upgrade. Is Mesoraco a clear upgrade over Hernandez in 2011? I really doubt it, but no matter how you feel about it, the answer is hardly "clear".

That, and Posey was in the major leagues for a month before they dealt Molina. They weren't just hoping Posey was ready, they'd seen it for themselves. Really, the fact that a team was willing to give them something for Molina was just icing on the cake.

Having said that, I'm okay with the concept of a trade, but the odds don't really favor the catcher move being any sort of short-term help for the Reds. So the trade needs to be for something good or else it's kind of pointless.

Brutus
07-11-2011, 11:55 PM
Because I don't think Ramon Hernandez sells or prevents the selling of tickets. If he does, boy, our fans are sooooooo sophisticated.

Listen to what you are saying: "You know that Reds game we were gonna go see kids? Forget it, the Reds just traded their platooning catcher. They're giving in." Sounds a little far fetched to me.

The fans were smart enough to know and like guys like Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, Chris Stynes, etc., but they won't care about Ramon Hernandez? I don't buy that a bit.

I'm not suggesting the Reds' attendance will decline half a million in the next year because of losing Ramon, but the message the organization should be sending is that they're still trying to win now and not later.

After all, isn't that what Reds' fans wanted for the last 10 years?

camisadelgolf
07-12-2011, 12:11 AM
That, and Posey was in the major leagues for a month before they dealt Molina. They weren't just hoping Posey was ready, they'd seen it for themselves. Really, the fact that a team was willing to give them something for Molina was just icing on the cake.

Having said that, I'm okay with the concept of a trade, but the odds don't really favor the catcher move being any sort of short-term help for the Reds. So the trade needs to be for something good or else it's kind of pointless.
:thumbup:
I agree 100%. It's not that I have some kind of attachment to Hernandez-and I also realize that his value will never get any higher--but once you get in the habit of trading players as if they're property as opposed to people, no one wants to play on your team. Free agents won't come to town (unless it's the only place left with playing time available), and players aren't inclined to sign extensions to stay with the team. One of the biggest reasons the Reds have had success in retaining players through extensions is because of how well management has treated them.

Blitz Dorsey
07-12-2011, 12:52 AM
In no way would trading Ramon be "throwing in the towel" by the Reds. I should have made that clearer in the original post.

First of all, does anyone think Ramon is going to continue this pace? I sure hope he does, but it's unlikely. Therefore, as Doug pointed out, how much of a drop-off will there really be from Ramon to the best minor-league catcher in all of baseball? A huge one? Doubtful. A moderate one? Maybe. A very-slight one? Probably.

Also as Doug pointed out, and as I meant to articulate in the OP ... Hernandez is going to be a free agent at the end of the season. The Reds will "pull an Arthur Rhodes" and not offer him arbitration, which means the team will get zilch for losing Ramon at the end of the year. Is that really what some fans want? Because of the hopes that he might be that much better than Devin Mesoraco over the final ~70 games of the season? Of a season where we probably aren't going anywhere no less?

Again, I don't want the Reds to be "sellers" ... but I wouldn't consider this move to be "selling." What if the Reds got a Major League-ready LF in return? Perhaps they package Ramon with another player -- maybe even make it a blockbuster with Ramon AND Yonder Alonso ... in exchange for the Reds' LF of the future.

Is that something you might be interested in?

IMO, there is no other organization in baseball that even comes close to the catching depth that the Reds have. In past years, we'd be salivating over Tucker Barnhart as a future star. He's almost an afterthought because of all the catching riches we have in the minors with Mesoraco and Grandal. Even Fleury is probably going to be a backup MLB catcher one day. He's definitely better than Craig Tatum and even Craig Tatum made it.

Anyway, the Reds might as well get something for Ramon while they can, ESPECIALLY when his value is at an all-time high.

PS: Kudos to all that Ramon has done. Whether he's traded or not, this will be his final year in a Reds uniform no matter what IMO. He's been a huge asset to the team on and off the field. That said, I would love to see the front office be smart and cash in this chip while they can. Oh, did I mention that the Reds have the best catching depth in all of MLB? If there is one position they can afford to trade, it's certainly catcher. Ramon's not a part of the future plan -- not even in 2012. They'd be foolish to hold on to him IMO.

camisadelgolf
07-12-2011, 02:27 AM
I'm pretty happy with how the Arthur Rhodes situation played out, and I'd be happy if the Hernandez situation played out the same way.

Ron Madden
07-12-2011, 05:52 AM
That's why you don't make populist moves if you're a GM. You make baseball and/or business moves.

Very true.

It would be foolish to hang on to Hernandez for the remainder of the season while his trade value is at it's peak.

PuffyPig
07-12-2011, 07:48 AM
It all depends on the return.

If we can upgrade the team I would trade anyone.

But we shouldn't be "moving him for the sake of moving him", which is what the title of the thread suggests.

If the Reds failure to move him means they are asleep at the wheel, the return is secondary.

Otherwise the title should read "The Reds should consider moving Hernandez if the return is good and it helps the Reds".

Griffey012
07-12-2011, 08:27 AM
It all depends on the return.

If we can upgrade the team I would trade anyone.

But we should be "moving him for the sake of moving him", which is what the title of the thread suggests.

If the Reds failure to move him means they are asleep at the wheel, the return is secondary.

Otherwise the title should read "The Reds should consider moving Hernandez if the return is good and it helps the Reds".

This. You hit the nail on the head, great post.

traderumor
07-12-2011, 10:31 AM
The Buster Posey and Devin Mesoraco situations are apples and oranges. First of all, many people considered Buster Posey to be the best catching prospect since Joe Mauer. Second of all, catching was a weakness for the Giants, so they traded from that weakness without upgrading anywhere else in the organization. The whole point was to move Molina to make room for Posey, who they felt was a clear upgrade. Is Mesoraco a clear upgrade over Hernandez in 2011? I really doubt it, but no matter how you feel about it, the answer is hardly "clear".

As for your other points, I'll just disagree and try to leave it at that. If the Reds enter the post-season without major changes to the roster, I agree that it's unlikely they'll win the World Series, but I think the playoff experience will be very helpful in future seasons. And which recent Reds prospects have rotted as a result of spending too much time in AAA?Notice I didn't say my comment was a model, or one-to-one comparison. It has similarities. It seems anytime someone makes a qualified comparison, the reply of the disagreeing poster is "apples and oranges" because the comparison doesn't have an exact one-to-one correspondence.

The Giants hoped this was an upgrade, but trading the devil that you know and inserting a prospect who doesn't perform can make or break a GM. It was a very risky move, and was viewed as such when it was made.

Molina was their cleanup hitter and good defensively. Granted it was a weak lineup, but still, trading away your cleanup hitter and veteran catcher and inserting a rookie? Apples to oranges? Posey was a BIG question mark defensively. I can't speak to the Mauer comparisons, but I doubt it considering his D has always been a question mark.

traderumor
07-12-2011, 10:56 AM
It all depends on the return.

If we can upgrade the team I would trade anyone.

But we shouldn't be "moving him for the sake of moving him", which is what the title of the thread suggests.

If the Reds failure to move him means they are asleep at the wheel, the return is secondary.

Otherwise the title should read "The Reds should consider moving Hernandez if the return is good and it helps the Reds".Of course, really goes without saying. I think the title assumes, and probably rightfully so, that Hernandez is at peak value right now and it should be a bidding contest. Maybe that's a bit of an overstatement for his value, but there are a number of teams who could use an average D, good hit catcher.

Tampa Bay-John Jaso is outhitting the .168 hitting Kelly Shoppach with a .639 OPS. And their offense certainly needs some help. Do they have any money?
San Francisco-Posey injury, Whiteside and a scrub. This team desparately needs offense.
New York-Russell Martin .707 OPS
Texas-Yorvit Torrealba .675 OPS
Anaheim-Mathis is hitting .195, a .527 OPS and playing half the time, the other half, Conger is .675 OPS
Seattle-Miguel Oliva .657 OPS
Philadelphia-Ruiz is hitting OK, but he has caught a lot of innings, already been on the DL this year and Brian Schneider is .510 OPS. Dane Sardinha is the third option.
Colorado-Ianetta high OBP, but backup Jose Morales is .669 OPS, probably not, but if they went on a streak

Those are all teams still within shouting distance and might be looking to upgrade at that position. I think that is a pretty good market for a specialized position where you have someone who can bring a stick to where teams are absorbing some Janish-horrid hitting.

San Francisco still seems to make the most sense, although Eli Whiteside is holding his own with a .700 OPS. Still, you have to think that with SF at the cusp of repeating and struggling offensively, Hernandez could be in the 5 or 6 hole in their lineup. Surely that has the value of a major league ready or near ready arm. That is where the bidding starts from where I sit.

mattfeet
07-12-2011, 11:08 AM
Any chance in you-know-where that a deal of Hernandez (add in Heisey if need be) and Alonso could land Matt Cain? I see he's getting $7mil this year, and $15mil next year. If Cordero/Hernandez come off the books, and we could re-structure that to a $11mil/$11mil deal, Id jump at the opportunity.

Thoughts?

-Matt

*BaseClogger*
07-12-2011, 11:15 AM
I don't think they trade Cain...

mattfeet
07-12-2011, 11:21 AM
I don't either, Im just throwing more it'd-be-nice-but-it-won't-happen trade ideas out there. Financially, it could make sense for both teams.

Actually, Id go to SanFran with: Hernandez, Alonso, Bailey for Matt Cain

_Sir_Charles_
07-12-2011, 11:40 AM
But my goodness, has Ramon ever earned his paycheck the past few years here. A class act all the way.

Yep. And to think, we got him for Freel plus parts. :laugh:

IslandRed
07-12-2011, 12:06 PM
Any chance in you-know-where that a deal of Hernandez (add in Heisey if need be) and Alonso could land Matt Cain? I see he's getting $7mil this year, and $15mil next year. If Cordero/Hernandez come off the books, and we could re-structure that to a $11mil/$11mil deal, Id jump at the opportunity.

Thoughts?

-Matt

That's a mixed-message proposal from the Giants' perspective. If they're giving up something good for a Hernandez rental, it means they're trying very hard to repeat. Trading away Cain is counter-productive to that.

HokieRed
07-12-2011, 12:08 PM
Even as laid back in their elitist way as SF fans are, I believe there'd be a riot at the ballpark if they traded Cain in the middle of a pennant race.

Dan
07-12-2011, 12:21 PM
I think someone mentioned Surkamp for Hernandez earlier in this thread. That's a good starting point.

I've been pushing Hernandez for Jonathan Sanchez for awhile now, but he walks a lot of batters and that doesn't fly on this board. I wonder if a 3-way could be pulled off with Hernandez going to SF, Sanchez going to NY, and Beltran coming to the Reds. Other players involved of course.

Alternatively, Hernandez, Janish, and a solid A+ or lower prospect (Corcino?) for Matt Moore and Hak-Ju Lee from Tampa would be interesting. Believe it or not, Janish would be a significant UPGRADE for Tampa right now. Brignac is OPSing in the .460 range. Yes, you read that right.

lollipopcurve
07-12-2011, 12:51 PM
One possible gambit for the Reds might be to pit SF vs. Arizona, the two leaders in the NL West. AZ could use better insurance behind Montero (currently they have Henry Blanco). SF's needs are obvious. Both teams have nice LH pitching prospects at AA -- Giants have Surkamp, Dbax have Wade Miley and Pat Corbin. Any of the 3 seems like a pretty reasonable return.

Blitz Dorsey
07-12-2011, 01:16 PM
But we shouldn't be "moving him for the sake of moving him", which is what the title of the thread suggests.

Yes, the Reds shouldn't just trade Ramon for garbage. The Reds should actually get something of value if they deal Ramon. I'm glad we were able to clear that up.

If none of the other 29 teams is willing to give something of value to one of the few quality catchers on the market -- perhaps the best on the market (presuming Ramon is "on the market" which we don't know for sure, but I'm taking that liberty with this argument) -- then I fully agree the Reds should hold on to him. However, there is no possible way IMO that there isn't a team out there that's willing to give up something of value for Ramon. There is a serious lack of quality catchers across MLB ... the Reds happen to have a surplus ... it all adds up to trading Ramon IMO. Also, it can't be stressed enough that his value is never going to get higher. Not that anyone is going to give up an elite prospect for a rental catcher who's 35, but it's my belief the Reds can get a valuable asset for Ramon, or package Ramon with another player in a blockbuster deal. I just don't want to see the Reds lose Ramon and get nothing for it.

And when I used the Arthur Rhodes example, I wasn't suggesting the Reds should have kept Rhodes, I was just saying the same thing is likely going to happen with Ramon if he's not traded: The Reds won't offer him arbitration and will then get nothing for losing him.

toledodan
07-12-2011, 01:48 PM
Platooning catcher who has the 2nd highest OPS on the team and a number of "clutch" hits this season. Fans will see that as a negative, unless the return is very positive.

The other thing that no one (I think) is mentioning is the embarrassment of riches that SF has in the bullpen.



don't forget the catcher that dusty likes batting 8th.:thumbdown::D

toledodan
07-12-2011, 01:55 PM
That, and Posey was in the major leagues for a month before they dealt Molina. They weren't just hoping Posey was ready, they'd seen it for themselves. Really, the fact that a team was willing to give them something for Molina was just icing on the cake.

Having said that, I'm okay with the concept of a trade, but the odds don't really favor the catcher move being any sort of short-term help for the Reds. So the trade needs to be for something good or else it's kind of pointless.



i think you are on to something here. why don't the reds carry 3 catchers for a short while. done that alot over the years. give mes a few starts to see if he can handle it. also don't laugh but we would have a backup at third and first with razor. he's done it before for short stints. i think we need to see if mes is ready. if the team can't win it this yeat i want to see him have some experience going into 2012.

PuffyPig
07-12-2011, 02:08 PM
I thought I was dealing with people with high-level baseball knowledge and didn't need to explain the obvious or include a disclaimer. Yes, the Reds shouldn't just trade Ramon for garbage. The Reds should actually get something of value if they deal Ramon. I'm glad we were able to clear that up.



FWIW, it's not just your title, it's what you wrote.

Your initial post said that there is absolutely no reason not to trade him right now. And if the Reds fail to do so, you will lose confidence in them. You were pretty clear.

I ask how you will know what they may have turned down? It's seems to me you have come a full 180 degrees on this subject.

REDREAD
07-12-2011, 02:32 PM
Very true.

It would be foolish to hang on to Hernandez for the remainder of the season while his trade value is at it's peak.

Unless his peak is only worth a marginal guy.
The sword cuts both ways.. People make the argument that Ramon is only a platoon player, won't maintain this level of production and not that big of a loss to the Reds.. Well the Giants may think the same thing, that Ramon is not worth giving up a significant prospect for.

For the most part, the Reds were in a position over the last 20 years (a few exceptions) where they were always looking to trade pending FAs for prospects.. Even the Sullivan for Hummel trade was lauded.. We needed something to cling on to for hope for the future.

The team is contending now. It really doesn't matter if we don't offer Hernandez arb and he leaves us with no compensation.. We are trying to win ballgames now. As someone else pointed out, Mes is a huge unknown. He could come up and go all Janish on us, turning catcher from a strength to a weakness.. Don't see why it's a good idea to take that gamble, unless trading Ramon gives us a premier prospect (unlikely) or someone that can help us now.

The Reds also are desperately trying to change fan perception of the team and sell tickets. I don't see them making any moves that would be percieved as "white flag".. If they trade Ramon and Mes doesn't immediately contribute, there will be complaining and fan disenchantment.

PuffyPig
07-12-2011, 02:33 PM
Unless his peak is only worth a marginal guy.
The sword cuts both ways.. People make the argument that Ramon is only a platoon player, won't maintain this level of production and not that big of a loss to the Reds.. Well the Giants may think the same thing, that Ramon is not worth giving up a significant prospect for.

For the most part, the Reds were in a position over the last 20 years (a few exceptions) where they were always looking to trade pending FAs for prospects.. Even the Sullivan for Hummel trade was lauded.. We needed something to cling on to for hope for the future.

The team is contending now. It really doesn't matter if we don't offer Hernandez arb and he leaves us with no compensation.. We are trying to win ballgames now. As someone else pointed out, Mes is a huge unknown. He could come up and go all Janish on us, turning catcher from a strength to a weakness.. Don't see why it's a good idea to take that gamble, unless trading Ramon gives us a premier prospect (unlikely) or someone that can help us now.

The Reds also are desperately trying to change fan perception of the team and sell tickets. I don't see them making any moves that would be percieved as "white flag".. If they trade Ramon and Mes doesn't immediately contribute, there will be complaining and fan disenchantment.


:beerme::beerme::beerme::beerme::beerme::beerme:

camisadelgolf
07-12-2011, 02:37 PM
I think someone mentioned Surkamp for Hernandez earlier in this thread. That's a good starting point.

I've been pushing Hernandez for Jonathan Sanchez for awhile now, but he walks a lot of batters and that doesn't fly on this board. I wonder if a 3-way could be pulled off with Hernandez going to SF, Sanchez going to NY, and Beltran coming to the Reds. Other players involved of course.

Alternatively, Hernandez, Janish, and a solid A+ or lower prospect (Corcino?) for Matt Moore and Hak-Ju Lee from Tampa would be interesting. Believe it or not, Janish would be a significant UPGRADE for Tampa right now. Brignac is OPSing in the .460 range. Yes, you read that right.
A good starting point? Your homerism is really showing. The Giants would be crazy to deal Surkamp straight up for a Hernandez rental. And Hak-Ju Lee + Matt Moore for Hernandez, Janish, and Corcino? That's beyond ridiculous. Lee and Moore are two of the top prospects in the game. Those two players alone could get the Rays almost any player in baseball.

camisadelgolf
07-12-2011, 02:38 PM
I don't either, Im just throwing more it'd-be-nice-but-it-won't-happen trade ideas out there. Financially, it could make sense for both teams.

Actually, Id go to SanFran with: Hernandez, Alonso, Bailey for Matt Cain
I don't think SanFran wouldn't have interest in Alonso as long as Brandon Belt is in the picture.

LoganBuck
07-12-2011, 03:13 PM
I am pretty sure that nobody in this thread is talking about dumping Ramon Hernandez for the Danny Richars, Tim Hummels, and Wilkin Castillos of the world. Nobody is saying firesale. What they are saying is if you can get a good prospect you make a deal, and bring up Mes. Surkamp would be my price.

Slyder
07-12-2011, 03:17 PM
I don't think SanFran wouldn't have interest in Alonso as long as Brandon Belt is in the picture.

Or they want to "protect" Posey by getting him out from behind the plate.

Dan
07-12-2011, 04:04 PM
A good starting point? Your homerism is really showing. The Giants would be crazy to deal Surkamp straight up for a Hernandez rental. And Hak-Ju Lee + Matt Moore for Hernandez, Janish, and Corcino? That's beyond ridiculous. Lee and Moore are two of the top prospects in the game. Those two players alone could get the Rays almost any player in baseball.

Of course it is. This is Redszone, not reality. :)

Reality would be expecting someone like Adam Duvall in return.

camisadelgolf
07-12-2011, 05:12 PM
Of course it is. This is Redszone, not reality. :)

Reality would be expecting someone like Adam Duvall in return.
Hernandez for Duvall might be an even trade. If Mesoraco somehow forces Ramon out, that's a trade I'd explore.

Blitz Dorsey
07-12-2011, 10:14 PM
I am pretty sure that nobody in this thread is talking about dumping Ramon Hernandez for the Danny Richars, Tim Hummels, and Wilkin Castillos of the world. Nobody is saying firesale. What they are saying is if you can get a good prospect you make a deal, and bring up Mes. Surkamp would be my price.

Thank you. I didn't feel pointing out the obvious to fellow Reds fans was necessary. Of course the Reds wouldn't (and shouldn't) just trade Ramon for nothing. That's not doing a 180 on my opinion. It's just that I'm convinced they could get a hell of a lot more than "nothing" or some scrub minor league player for a valuable catcher like Ramon Hernandez.

Ron Madden
07-14-2011, 06:01 AM
Unless his peak is only worth a marginal guy.
The sword cuts both ways.. People make the argument that Ramon is only a platoon player, won't maintain this level of production and not that big of a loss to the Reds.. Well the Giants may think the same thing, that Ramon is not worth giving up a significant prospect for.

For the most part, the Reds were in a position over the last 20 years (a few exceptions) where they were always looking to trade pending FAs for prospects.. Even the Sullivan for Hummel trade was lauded.. We needed something to cling on to for hope for the future.

The team is contending now. It really doesn't matter if we don't offer Hernandez arb and he leaves us with no compensation.. We are trying to win ballgames now. As someone else pointed out, Mes is a huge unknown. He could come up and go all Janish on us, turning catcher from a strength to a weakness.. Don't see why it's a good idea to take that gamble, unless trading Ramon gives us a premier prospect (unlikely) or someone that can help us now.

The Reds also are desperately trying to change fan perception of the team and sell tickets. I don't see them making any moves that would be percieved as "white flag".. If they trade Ramon and Mes doesn't immediately contribute, there will be complaining and fan disenchantment.

I understand where you're coming from but at some point you have to realize the Reds are a small market team.

Small market clubs simply can not offer thirty five year old catchers arbitration when they have highly touted prospects waiting in the wings.

I'd rather get a prospect with some upside and a chance to improve in return for Hernandez than to resign him or let him walk away and get nothing.

WebScorpion
07-16-2011, 02:52 AM
Trading Hernandez while his value is high and bringing up Mes does seem like a move a small market team like the Reds should consider. I say 'consider' because I'm not sure what effect the switch in catchers might have on the pitchers. The Reds management staff should be able to figure that out and have some reasonable idea of what effect the change might have. Mes has worked with many of the pitchers in AAA and most of them seem to pitch well down there. :dunno:

toledodan
07-16-2011, 02:58 AM
IMO mes would fit in fine with the pitchers. like webscorpion mentioned he has worked with some of our current pitchers already. my only concern with trading razor is the drop off in offense we have had from hanigan. other than that i think the move needs to be made.

Blitz Dorsey
07-16-2011, 11:25 AM
Other than knowing Spanish (which really helps while catching a guy like Cueto) I never thought Ramon was great in the realm of helping pitchers. His catcher's ERA is always worse than Hanigan's. So, I don't think there would be much of a defensive dropoff from Hernandez to Mesoraco -- and "defense" for a catcher includes calling a game, handling the pitching staff, etc.

Keith Law just did his updated list on the Top 50 prospects in MLB and Mes checked in at No. 6. The kid is 23 now. I say it's time to give him a shot. Plus, I don't want to lose Ramon for nothing.

mdccclxix
07-16-2011, 07:23 PM
I noticed Mez's caught stealing percentage is 24% this year in AAA, is that a concern?

HokieRed
07-16-2011, 07:27 PM
This is a tougher choice than I think some of us are recognizing. Trading your best catcher in the middle of a pennant race is not easy, however much we can conjure up a kind of sense about it. I doubt we'll see Ramon moved if the Reds remain within three games.

I(heart)Freel
07-16-2011, 07:39 PM
Or Ramon could be a part of a larger package that gets that thing the club needs at the deadline. LFer, SP or bullpen.

So it won't seem like it's giving up on the season. They'll say the Mes callup offsets the Ramon loss, and then the upgrade at the other position is a net positive for a contending club.

At least that way, the Reds *do* get something for Ramon and don't have to worry about offering arbitration to do it.

HokieRed
07-16-2011, 08:41 PM
What do you tell the pitchers? What do they get?

Blitz Dorsey
07-17-2011, 12:06 AM
What do you tell the pitchers? What do they get?

The best young catcher in the game. Not "one of the best" ... but the best. If they don't get that, then they don't know what building an MLB team is all about. It's not like we're saying trade Ramon and replace him with some scrub. Mesoraco is ready. Also, we don't want to risk losing Ramon for nothing, especially if we could get a good player (or prospect) in return for him. Or, perhaps package Ramon with another player in a bigger deal.

We have a surplus of catching depth. Keeping Ramon and losing him for nothing makes no sense. Especially when there likely wouldn't be much dropoff from Ramon to Mesoraco this season. It's not like trading Ramon Hernandez would be akin to giving up on the season. Hell, even now he only starts every other game. I'm pretty sure the best catching prospect in all of baseball could handle a platoon role.

hebroncougar
07-17-2011, 12:25 AM
The best young catcher in the game. Not "one of the best" ... but the best. If they don't get that, then they don't know what building an MLB team is all about. It's not like we're saying trade Ramon and replace him with some scrub. Mesoraco is ready. Also, we don't want to risk losing Ramon for nothing, especially if we could get a good player (or prospect) in return for him. Or, perhaps package Ramon with another player in a bigger deal.

We have a surplus of catching depth. Keeping Ramon and losing him for nothing makes no sense. Especially when there likely wouldn't be much dropoff from Ramon to Mesoraco this season. It's not like trading Ramon Hernandez would be akin to giving up on the season. Hell, even now he only starts every other game. I'm pretty sure the best catching prospect in all of baseball could handle a platoon role.

I believe he will be a type a free agent, so the return might have to be better than a couple of picks.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk

I(heart)Freel
07-18-2011, 03:13 PM
Just reading how Boston is on the prowl for catching help too.

Could you get SF and BoSox into a bidding war for Ramon?

Could you get Papelbon back for Ramon+[something], seeing as they are both FAs to be?

Just thinking out loud here.

edit: I'm much more confident that Papelbon wouldn't accept arb than I am Ramon. But I also doubt that the Red Sox deal a closer during the season. At this point, they can afford to let him walk away as a free agent. Not sure the Reds are in the same boat.

REDREAD
07-18-2011, 03:17 PM
I understand where you're coming from but at some point you have to realize the Reds are a small market team.

Small market clubs simply can not offer thirty five year old catchers arbitration when they have highly touted prospects waiting in the wings.

I'd rather get a prospect with some upside and a chance to improve in return for Hernandez than to resign him or let him walk away and get nothing.

I would not offer Ramon arbitration at the end of this year. I agree, that's not worth the risk.. In all honesty, the compensation draft picks that you get for offering a FA arbitration are highly overrated.

I'm just saying I would rather have Hernandez for the rest of the year than whatever prospect he would fetch in a trade. He's not going to fetch much in trade, IMO. The odds that Mes could step in and provide comparable production to Ramon right now are pretty steep.. Mes would be a downgrade this year..

The best thing for small market teams to do is to try and win when they get a chance. St Louis has roughly the same "market area" as we do, yet they have won enough to become a big market team. Cleveland sold out a lot of games when they were winning.. Milwaukee got a lot more fans by winning.
Not saying Cincy can get the same level of success, but the only way to bring in more revenue is to win.

mth123
07-18-2011, 07:51 PM
I would not offer Ramon arbitration at the end of this year. I agree, that's not worth the risk.. In all honesty, the compensation draft picks that you get for offering a FA arbitration are highly overrated.

I'm just saying I would rather have Hernandez for the rest of the year than whatever prospect he would fetch in a trade. He's not going to fetch much in trade, IMO. The odds that Mes could step in and provide comparable production to Ramon right now are pretty steep.. Mes would be a downgrade this year..

The best thing for small market teams to do is to try and win when they get a chance. St Louis has roughly the same "market area" as we do, yet they have won enough to become a big market team. Cleveland sold out a lot of games when they were winning.. Milwaukee got a lot more fans by winning.
Not saying Cincy can get the same level of success, but the only way to bring in more revenue is to win.

I agree with this post. The only difference between me and most is that I think that "win while you have a chance" thing comes to an end when Joey Votto leaves town.