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New Fever
07-11-2011, 06:11 PM
Carolina leads 1-0 on Neftali Soto's 15th homerun.

mace
07-11-2011, 06:31 PM
He's been on a power surge. You know, I almost started a thread today, but chickened out. It was posing the question: Am I the only one who's not convinced that Alonso is a better prospect than Soto?

I backed off for a couple reasons. One, Alonso's career numbers are a little better. And two, most of the scouts and experts are in his corner. And of course, I'd be under assault from all the Alonso enthusiasts on Redszone.

But I think a case can be made for Soto--not that he's better, necessarily, but at least in the photo. The short version is that he's outperforming Alonso both at Carolina and at the age of 22 (Alonso's two years older). Of course, that's complicated by the fact that Alonso was dealing with the hamate injury in those days.

They seem to be pretty much a wash defensively. Alonso now has left field on his resume, but Soto came up as a SS and has played some 3B, not to mention his tinkering as a catcher. (I don't mean to imply that he might still play SS or even 3B; just that he must possess some trace of those kinds of skills.)

I'm influenced by my impressions of their respective swings. Alonso gives me pause with his long arc. I've only seen Soto once in person, but he immediately struck me as a hitter. That said, my opinion in that respect is not refined enough to count for much.

Anyway, I think Soto has hit his way into the discussion. His power is clearly on the uptick.

muddie
07-11-2011, 06:33 PM
Phipps has added a two run homer to put Carolina up 3-0.

muddie
07-11-2011, 06:36 PM
mace,

Did you see Soto in W-S last year? If so, what position was he playing that day?

HokieRed
07-11-2011, 06:44 PM
I too almost started a thread on Soto today, so I'll ask the question here. I'm an Alonso fan but also a Soto fan and have been since day 1. The question is simple. Can Soto play LF?

corkedbat
07-11-2011, 06:46 PM
He's been on a power surge. You know, I almost started a thread today, but chickened out. It was posing the question: Am I the only one who's not convinced that Alonso is a better prospect than Soto?

I backed off for a couple reasons. One, Alonso's career numbers are a little better. And two, most of the scouts and experts are in his corner. And of course, I'd be under assault from all the Alonso enthusiasts on Redszone.

But I think a case can be made for Soto--not that he's better, necessarily, but at least in the photo. The short version is that he's outperforming Alonso both at Carolina and at the age of 22 (Alonso's two years older). Of course, that's complicated by the fact that Alonso was dealing with the hamate injury in those days.

They seem to be pretty much a wash defensively. Alonso now has left field on his resume, but Soto came up as a SS and has played some 3B, not to mention his tinkering as a catcher. (I don't mean to imply that he might still play SS or even 3B; just that he must possess some trace of those kinds of skills.)

I'm influenced by my impressions of their respective swings. Alonso gives me pause with his long arc. I've only seen Soto once in person, but he immediately struck me as a hitter. That said, my opinion in that respect is not refined enough to count for much.

Anyway, I think Soto has hit his way into the discussion. His power is clearly on the uptick.

Over the last couple of years, I've seen Soto as I do Frazier. Not necessarily a can't-miss, everyday starter, but a potentially valuable utility player with some punch off the bench

dougdirt
07-11-2011, 06:50 PM
He's been on a power surge. You know, I almost started a thread today, but chickened out. It was posing the question: Am I the only one who's not convinced that Alonso is a better prospect than Soto?

I backed off for a couple reasons. One, Alonso's career numbers are a little better. And two, most of the scouts and experts are in his corner. And of course, I'd be under assault from all the Alonso enthusiasts on Redszone.

But I think a case can be made for Soto--not that he's better, necessarily, but at least in the photo. The short version is that he's outperforming Alonso both at Carolina and at the age of 22 (Alonso's two years older). Of course, that's complicated by the fact that Alonso was dealing with the hamate injury in those days.

They seem to be pretty much a wash defensively. Alonso now has left field on his resume, but Soto came up as a SS and has played some 3B, not to mention his tinkering as a catcher. (I don't mean to imply that he might still play SS or even 3B; just that he must possess some trace of those kinds of skills.)

I'm influenced by my impressions of their respective swings. Alonso gives me pause with his long arc. I've only seen Soto once in person, but he immediately struck me as a hitter. That said, my opinion in that respect is not refined enough to count for much.

Anyway, I think Soto has hit his way into the discussion. His power is clearly on the uptick.

Here is my scouting breakdown between the two:

Defense: Wash. Both are very likely first baseman for their careers. Alonso has an edge right now IMO at first base, but I think that is more due to experience there than skill. Soto will catch up with more experience.

Power: Soto has an edge here. I think Soto can be a legit 30+ HR guy if things go right for him. I think Alonso is more of a 25-30 HR guy.

Hitting ability: Same. This is for a pure hit tool. I think both guys could be .300 hitters at the MLB level. Right now though, Alonso's hit tool is clearly better than that of Soto's.

Plate discipline: Here is the largest difference and the one that makes Alonso a MUCH better prospect right now. Alonso has above average plate discipline. He understands the strikezone very well. Soto on the flip side has made some strides, but his approach is still pretty crude. He is a swing first type of hitter, which isn't always a bad thing, but you need to make a lot of contact with that approach and he isn't an elite contact type of hitter who can get by with that approach. He must be more patient because as I have noted, his hit tool can be very good and he has legit MLB first baseman power.

muddie
07-11-2011, 06:57 PM
End of 3 1/2 at Huntsville, Carolina up 3-0.

muddie
07-11-2011, 07:12 PM
Carolina up 5-1 after big two run shot by David Cook. Avery has given up only two hits through four.

muddie
07-11-2011, 07:18 PM
Into the 5th inning, Dan Merklinger, the Stars starter, has thrown 100 pitches. It is very hot in Huntsville.

mace
07-11-2011, 07:28 PM
mace,

Did you see Soto in W-S last year? If so, what position was he playing that day?

Yes. And first base. He looked OK around the bag, but the first time you see him run you're aware that he's painfully slow . . . Oh, but you've seen him plenty now. On second glance and third glance, is he as slow as he looked at first?

mace
07-11-2011, 07:34 PM
Plate discipline: Here is the largest difference and the one that makes Alonso a MUCH better prospect right now. Alonso has above average plate discipline. He understands the strikezone very well. Soto on the flip side has made some strides, but his approach is still pretty crude. He is a swing first type of hitter, which isn't always a bad thing, but you need to make a lot of contact with that approach and he isn't an elite contact type of hitter who can get by with that approach. He must be more patient because as I have noted, his hit tool can be very good and he has legit MLB first baseman power.

There's no question that Alonso has a wide edge in plate discipline, and it's an important category. However, even with a deficit in OBP, Soto has posted better OPS numbers in Carolina and at age 22. I think it's worth noting, also, that Soto is two years younger, and will very possibly improve in that area.

muddie
07-11-2011, 07:34 PM
James Avery is in to the bottom of the sixth with 75 pitches thrown.

muddie
07-11-2011, 07:35 PM
First two hitters on for Huntsville. Tim Gustafson warms while Tom Brown goes out to chat.

muddie
07-11-2011, 07:40 PM
After Grandal throws out an attempted steal at third, a double puts another run up for Huntsville. Avery done for the evening. Carolina 5-2 with two out in the bottom of the sixth.

mace
07-11-2011, 07:47 PM
muddie -- At your leisure, you wanna give us your impressions of the first five batters in the Carolina lineup: Phipps, Rodriguez, Cook, Grandal and Soto? (I recall that you've previously spoken of Campbell, favorably.)

muddie
07-11-2011, 07:49 PM
End of six full, Carolina up 5-2. This is the first game of a doubleheader so this one is slated for seven innings.

dougdirt
07-11-2011, 07:52 PM
There's no question that Alonso has a wide edge in plate discipline, and it's an important category. However, even with a deficit in OBP, Soto has posted better OPS numbers in Carolina and at age 22. I think it's worth noting, also, that Soto is two years younger, and will very possibly improve in that area.

Soto has also been fully healthy in his time in Carolina, while Alonso was still recovering from his hamate injury. But, even if that weren't the case, a better OPS doesn't always mean "will be the better OPS in the Majors".

muddie
07-11-2011, 07:55 PM
Grandal drives in Rodriguez to give Carolina another run in the top of the 7th. Mudcats still batting up 6-2.

muddie
07-11-2011, 07:57 PM
Soto has also been fully healthy in his time in Carolina, while Alonso was still recovering from his hamate injury. But, even if that weren't the case, a better OPS doesn't always mean "will be the better OPS in the Majors".


Soto was out for some time earlier this year with a broken wrist. He just returned a few weeks back.

cinreds21
07-11-2011, 08:02 PM
There we go.

muddie
07-11-2011, 08:02 PM
muddie -- At your leisure, you wanna give us your impressions of the first five batters in the Carolina lineup: Phipps, Rodriguez, Cook, Grandal and Soto? (I recall that you've previously spoken of Campbell, favorably.)


mace, I'll be glad to roll that out tomorrow.

dougdirt
07-11-2011, 08:03 PM
Soto was out for some time earlier this year with a broken wrist. He just returned a few weeks back.

Soto actually had his hamate removed last year too (pre 2010 season), so he has been dealt bad breaks when it comes to his hand/wrist too. With Alonso it was clear that he wasn't fully recovered yet and since he reached that 1 year mark of the injury, he has been a .320/.400/.525 hitter. With Soto, I am hoping that his plate discipline doesn't hold him back, but 50/14 K/BB ratio doesn't give me a good feeling about it being anywhere near an assumed thing that it won't be the thing that keeps him back.

muddie
07-11-2011, 08:04 PM
Carolina takes game one 6-2. Avery with the win. Soto, Phipps, and Cook with home runs. Soto gets number 15!

mace
07-11-2011, 08:14 PM
Josh Smith through four: 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K. It's 1-0 Dayton, run scored by Hamilton.

mace
07-11-2011, 09:25 PM
Phipps (.303) has a 2B and HR in the second game, and Carolina leads 2-1 in the third.

mace
07-11-2011, 09:51 PM
Dayton is delayed after giving up three in the top of the sixth to fall behind 3-2.

cinreds21
07-11-2011, 10:49 PM
Mudcats win game two and sweep the twin billing. The Mudcats get back to .500 are in second place.

cinreds21
07-11-2011, 10:56 PM
Oh ya, they swept the Stars.

mace
07-11-2011, 11:13 PM
Cingrani's start tonight for Billings went 2.2 innings, no hits, 4 K. Mustangs lead 5-2 in the fifth.

mace
07-11-2011, 11:25 PM
I don't understand the outcome of the Dayton game. The box score and recap say that South Bend won the game, 3-2, after scoring three in the top of the sixth. The game was then called. But since Dayton didn't bat in the sixth, it seems that the score should revert to the last completed inning, which would make Dayton the winner. There's nothing in the box or recap to indicate that Dayton batted in the sixth.

cinreds21
07-11-2011, 11:28 PM
You only need 5 1/2 for an official game.

mace
07-11-2011, 11:37 PM
You only need 5 1/2 for an official game.

But that should only be if the home team is ahead. If not, it should revert to the last completed inning, as long as five have been completed. Unless there's been some recent change to an age-old rule.

cinreds21
07-11-2011, 11:40 PM
But that should only be if the home team is ahead. If not, it should revert to the last completed inning, as long as five have been completed. Unless there's been some recent change to an age-old rule.

I've always known it as 5 1/2 even if the home team is losing.

mbgrayson
07-11-2011, 11:41 PM
I've always known it as 5 1/2 even if the home team is losing.

I don't think so. You can't let one team have an extra AB more than the other, if the team behind in the score is short an AB.

Rule 4.10
(c) If a game is called, it is a regulation game:
(1) If five innings have been completed;
(2) If the home team has scored more runs in four or four and a fraction half-innings than the visiting team has scored in five completed half-innings;
(3) If the home team scores one or more runs in its half of the fifth inning to tie the score.
(d) If a regulation game is called with the score tied, it shall become a suspended game. See Rule 4.12.
(e) If a game is called before it has become a regulation game, the umpire shall declare it “No Game.”
(f) Rain checks will not be honored for any regulation or suspended game which has progressed to or beyond a point of play described in 4.10(c)

mace
07-11-2011, 11:42 PM
Matt Fairel made a rehab start tonight for the AZL Reds. He went two scoreless innings and was relieved by Jordan Smith, who did the same. Then Eliezer Beard struck out the side in the fifth. It's 4-0.

Hypnotoad
07-11-2011, 11:48 PM
League officials were consulted. It was suspended, then called - if a called game is regulation (at least 5 innings completed), then the team with the lead is declared the winner. I think that is the interpretation that was used.

Both section 4.10 and 4.12 apply.

mace
07-11-2011, 11:50 PM
Lefthander Wandy Peralta, who last time out pitched five no-hit innings, tonight pitched seven 3-hit, one-run innings as the DSL Reds won 3-1.

mace
07-11-2011, 11:55 PM
League officials were consulted. It was suspended, then called - if a called game is regulation (at least 5 innings completed), then the team with the lead is declared the winner. I think that is the interpretation that was used.

Both section 4.10 and 4.12 apply.

Wow, that's absurd. I can see where the rules, as presented in grayson's post, can leave room for that interpretation. But that's simply not right. If the visiting team takes the lead in any inning from the fifth on, the home team has to have a chance to bat. Can you imagine calling a game after the top of the 11th if the visiting team scores to break a tie? Never heard of anything like this.

mace
07-12-2011, 12:08 AM
Perusing the rules, I don't see anything about a game reverting to the last completed inning. My guess is that the language used concerning the fifth inning is supposed to apply to subsequent innings, as well, but it doesn't say that. I've always understood it that way. Maybe I've always understood it wrong, but it seemed as fundamental as four balls making a walk. And if it's not that way, it's astoundingly unfair to the home team.

cinreds21
07-12-2011, 12:08 AM
So I was right?

mace
07-12-2011, 12:14 AM
OK, rule 4.12 says this:

4.12 SUSPENDED GAMES.
(a) A game shall become a suspended game that must be completed at a future date if
the game is terminated for any of the following reasons:
. . . (5) Weather, if a regulation game is called while an inning is in progress and
before the inning is completed, and the visiting team has scored one or more
runs to take the lead, and the home team has not retaken the lead;

So it should be a suspended game, not a completed game. South Bend should not be the winner. The game should be resumed.

mace
07-12-2011, 12:25 AM
Here's the explanation from the Dragons website:

Dayton, Ohio-Raywilly Gomez and Matt Helm delivered back-to-back run-scoring doubles in the top of the sixth inning and the South Bend Silver Hawks got an assist from Mother Nature as they defeated the Dayton Dragons 3-2 on Monday night in a game shortened by rain to five and one-half innings.

The Silver Hawks took the lead in the top of the sixth inning and, due to heavy rain, the Dragons never got the opportunity to bat in the bottom of the sixth. By rule, those circumstances meet the conditions for a suspended game since the home team could not bat after a lead change in the top of the inning. But since the two teams do not play again in 2011, Midwest League President George Spelius, with assistance from Mike Felt of the Professional Baseball Umpire Corporation, cited further Minor League Baseball regulations to declare South Bend the winner. Rules state that in the event a suspended game cannot be resumed and the game has reached five full innings, the team leading at the time of the suspension shall be awarded the win.

. . .

So yes, it should have been a suspended game. The caveat is that the two teams don't play again.

Even then, however, it's astonishing that they can award the victory to a team that has taken the lead in an inning in which the other team hasn't batted. Never heard of such a thing.

mace
07-12-2011, 12:29 AM
Billings won, 5-2, with excellent relief from a number of recent draft choices.

muddie
07-12-2011, 05:29 AM
The Mudcats have won four games consecutively for the first time this year. They had won three games in a row only once prior. The Jackson Generals are in town beginning tomorrow for another one of those six games series. Carolina won three in a row at Jackson immediately before the SL AS break. Hoping these guys can carry the momentum into this series.

Hypnotoad
07-12-2011, 07:59 AM
That was my (unclear) point earlier - this was a suspended game, that was then called and then subject to the rules quoted above on the Dragons website. An unusual situation to be sure.

mace
07-12-2011, 09:20 AM
That was my (unclear) point earlier - this was a suspended game, that was then called and then subject to the rules quoted above on the Dragons website. An unusual situation to be sure.

Yeah, very weird. There's a provision in the rules by which a suspended game may be called if it's followed by a power outage, or light failure. And that the present score stands. In the case of calling the game because there's no available date to continue it, apparently that's a special rule of the minor-league system. If that's the case, it seems like the game should never have been suspended in the first place. It appears to be a classic situation of reverting to the previously completed inning. Somebody needs to revisit those rules.

Hypnotoad
07-12-2011, 09:23 AM
Hopefully Dayton will breeze into a playoff spot and not miss it by a game....

OnBaseMachine
07-12-2011, 12:11 PM
From Kevin Goldstein:

•Tony Cingrani, LHP, Reds (Rookie-level Billings): 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K. Third-round pick has struck out 12 over 6.2 shutout innings in first three pro appearances while allowing just two hits; big lefty with easy plus velocity.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/minorleagueupdate/