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View Full Version : Mesoraco and Grandal as trade bait



Kc61
07-18-2011, 01:52 PM
IMO the two catchers are the Reds' top prospects right now.

I have no doubt that any team offering a high end starting pitcher will insist on Mesoraco in the trade. I don't believe for a minute that a high end pitcher is coming for Alonso, Volquez, Travis Wood as the featured player. They will all want Mes.

The Reds could try to construct a package offering Grandal. That may bring a lesser pitcher. Or it may require the Reds giving up more talent (Stubbs, perhaps).


So the question is presented whether the Reds should trade Mes if necessary to land a high end pitcher.

Or, should they trade Grandal for perhaps a somewhat lesser pitcher. Or Grandal may require giving up someone like Stubbs.

Or, is it premature to trade either. Hold on to both of them and see who pans out.

My view is that I wouldn't trade Mes, and I would only trade Grandal for a high end pitcher. I think these two guys are very valuable and (through a position change) both could be regulars for the Reds soon.

But I realize that holding on to these prospects could eliminate the big trade.

Views?

Edd Roush
07-18-2011, 02:05 PM
I think the Votto-Phillips-Rolen window is coming to a close. Rolen may already be done and Phillips may be gone after next year and Votto in a couple more. I think the Reds should do everything they can to be the best team they can in this window.

I believe the best way to improve this year is to add an ace. The quotes coming out of Denver seem to infer that O'Dowd is at least listening to offers for Ubaldo, even though he is currently asking for a "Hershel Walker" return. That may be a lot to give up, but I believe the Reds should do it. The best part of trading with the Rockies is that they already have a big-time C prospect. We could probably give them a Francisco+Alonso to take the place of Mesoraco. I think we align very well with them if they believe the good times of Wood and Volquez in the bigs.

If Walt can convince O'Dowd that Volquez and Wood are MLB pitchers worthy of a spot in the Rockies' rotation and then give them our AAA depth which they could use on the big team, I really think the Reds should go for it.

Getting back to your original point, though, I would deal Mes or Grandal in the right deal. Ramon looks like he could have another year in him (granted probably not going to be as good as this one) and Mes and Grandal's values are at an all-time high. I wouldn't deal either of them for a non-ace (a Guthrie type), but I would include them in a haul for a Anibal Sanchez or Felix Hernandez. I think some of these teams are looking for good young depth, with which the Reds can provide them.

I really believe Walt should be active now trying to allow Votto, Phillips and Rolen the chance of winning a World Series in the Queen City.

Caveat Emperor
07-18-2011, 02:24 PM
I wouldn't trade either one.

cumberlandreds
07-18-2011, 02:32 PM
Really good catchers are nearly as valuable as good pitching. I would be very careful to who and for who I traded before either of these guys. You would hate to give up the next great catcher. Another one may not come around for another 30 years.

REDREAD
07-18-2011, 02:39 PM
I would trade one of the catching prospects to get a pitcher like U Jimminez.
An ace pitcher that is affordable for the next 3 years or so. That's pretty much a dream acquision for the Reds.

The fact that the Rolen/Philips window is closing is all the more reason to pull the trigger on a deal like U Jimminez, if it is available.

Now, I would not trade one of the catchers for a guy like Guthrie, etc.. Just for a legit ace that would be around for awhile.
IMO, no one in the minor leagues should be untouchable to get Jimminez.

Edd Roush
07-18-2011, 02:41 PM
I wouldn't trade either one.

Sure, I wouldn't "want" to trade either, also, but you have to give up value to get value. The Reds' are at a relative surplus of catching. Grandal and Mesoraco could be the two best catchers in the major leagues in 7 years. They could also be career back-ups. Either way, neither is likely to do much for the 2011 Reds.

I like Mesoraco's chances at being an All-Star catcher in 5 years. Other teams likely think the same thing. Florida wouldn't think of dealing Josh Johnson/Anibal Sanchez if it weren't for hearing a name like Mesoraco from Walt. This year (and likely for the next couple) the Reds need starting pitching. If we can get an ace to help us for the next few years, and we only have to give up minor league talent, you have to consider it.

I would hate to deal Mes, but I would love to see the Reds with a legit shot at the Phillies this year.

hebroncougar
07-18-2011, 02:42 PM
I'd trade Grandal. I wouldn't trade Mesoraco.

HokieRed
07-18-2011, 02:44 PM
I wouldn't trade either one.

Neither would I, and since I wouldn't trade either Cueto or Bailey, I suspect I'd be out of contention, as a GM, for making a big trade now. Furthermore, I'm not interested in acquiring anything in the way of SP unless it's really top-flight and I reject the idea that our window is open only as long as Votto and Phillips are here. In the current condition of baseball parity, this team can be kept very competitive every year as long as the rotation remains so: and to that end, I love the prospect of having good young--read "cheap"--talent filling position spots and thus giving me the flexibility to acquire what I want in the way of SP or other things. (But first of all, SP)

Caveat Emperor
07-18-2011, 03:05 PM
Sure, I wouldn't "want" to trade either, also, but you have to give up value to get value. The Reds' are at a relative surplus of catching. Grandal and Mesoraco could be the two best catchers in the major leagues in 7 years. They could also be career back-ups. Either way, neither is likely to do much for the 2011 Reds.

I like Mesoraco's chances at being an All-Star catcher in 5 years. Other teams likely think the same thing. Florida wouldn't think of dealing Josh Johnson/Anibal Sanchez if it weren't for hearing a name like Mesoraco from Walt. This year (and likely for the next couple) the Reds need starting pitching. If we can get an ace to help us for the next few years, and we only have to give up minor league talent, you have to consider it.

I would hate to deal Mes, but I would love to see the Reds with a legit shot at the Phillies this year.

Big name pitchers change hands constantly and are always available on the open market. Middle-order catchers? Another story entirely.

reds44
07-18-2011, 03:13 PM
Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, and Aroldis Chapman are all in their low-mid 20's. To say this team's window is closing is kind of silly at this point.

Edd Roush
07-18-2011, 03:54 PM
Big name pitchers change hands constantly and are always available on the open market. Middle-order catchers? Another story entirely.

But how much more value will Mesoraco provide over Hernanigan this year? Likely none.

How much more value will Mes provide over Hernanigan next year? A little more, but nothing near what an ace would provide over Willis/Wood/Volquez.

WVRedsFan
07-18-2011, 03:54 PM
I owuldn't trade either one. You remember it took a decade to get the catching position straightened out. I don't want to go through that again. Ever.

Caveat Emperor
07-18-2011, 03:57 PM
But how much more value will Mesoraco provide over Hernanigan this year? Likely none.

How much more value will Mes provide over Hernanigan next year? A little more, but nothing near what an ace would provide over Willis/Wood/Volquez.

The same Ryan Hanigan that has an OPS of .668 right now?

reds44
07-18-2011, 03:58 PM
Ramon Hernandez is having a career year. The Reds will let him walk, get two draft picks, and have Mesoraco as the full time catcher next year.

_Sir_Charles_
07-18-2011, 04:01 PM
With as many prospects as we have right now throughout the system, I can't foresee ANY scenario that would force us to trade Mesoraco. If a team demanded Mes, I would find it hard to believe that we couldn't make them go for a different deal with multiple slightly lesser prospects instead of Devin.

I don't trade either of them. I deal from positions we have excess of. And yes, we DO have a surplus of catching...but we have some nice solid ones BELOW Grandal too. I add some of those before I touch Mes or Grandal.

_Sir_Charles_
07-18-2011, 04:03 PM
Ramon Hernandez is having a career year. The Reds will let him walk, get two draft picks, and have Mesoraco as the full time catcher next year.

Don't the reds have to offer him arbitration to be eligible to get the 2 draft picks? If they choose to let him walk without offering arbitration...we get nothing IIRC.

But considering my record on these matters...I'm most likely wrong. :O)

PuffyPig
07-18-2011, 04:04 PM
IMO the two catchers are the Reds' top prospects right now.

I have no doubt that any team offering a high end starting pitcher will insist on Mesoraco in the trade. I don't believe for a minute that a high end pitcher is coming for Alonso, Volquez, Travis Wood as the featured player. They will all want Mes.



So, if a high end pitcher becomes available, only the Reds can get him?

Because only the Reds have Mess.

We have enough quality prospects to complete a deal deal without including Mess.

Much like teams without Mess can complete a deal also.

Lots of high end deals get completed without a team's best prospect being included.

Mario-Rijo
07-18-2011, 04:09 PM
I would trade Grandal in a heartbeat as I don't believe he will be that great a catcher as a Major Leaguer. I'm not even sure his bat will play all that well either. So if someone is willing to accept him as a strong piece in a deal for a front line pitcher or bat or even a similar prospect at a position of need I'm in (say like 3rd base). Now of course if the organization strongly believes he could play 3rd or they consider him a strong potential replacement for Votto (assuming they expect Votto to leave via FA) then I'd be much more inclined to keep him.

Mesoraco I wouldn't deal at all unless it's a guy that is a sure thing (and probably nothing less than a Front line arm) and I'm not sure Ubaldo qualifies for me in that regard, let's say I would be on the fence about dealing him for Ubaldo but not so much so for Felix or Johnson. Ubaldo is a guy i'd deal for in a heartbeat but his mechanics may lead to a quick fadeout and Mes I feel is too strong a prospect to give up for that. Every team has an untouchable guy and other teams seem to be ok with that so I'd make Mes mine. He is the only guy in the system right now I don't believe I'd deal (because I can't see us getting a real chance at guys like Felix).

Mario-Rijo
07-18-2011, 04:12 PM
Don't the reds have to offer him arbitration to be eligible to get the 2 draft picks? If they choose to let him walk without offering arbitration...we get nothing IIRC.

But considering my record on these matters...I'm most likely wrong. :O)

No you are correct and I think it's pretty obvious that they won't offer it to him (see Arthur Rhodes). Hanny is signed for a few years yet and they know Mes is ready or will be for sure by then.

dougdirt
07-18-2011, 04:23 PM
The Reds shouldn't trade Devin Mesoraco for anyone with less than 4 years left on their deal and that player better be a star right now. Anything other than that and its a bad deal. I wouldn't hesitate to trade Grandal in the right deal, as I don't think he is going to get a shot in Cincinnati, but he is a very good prospect in his own right and I wouldn't just be tossing him into any trade.

UKFlounder
07-18-2011, 04:27 PM
Grandal can't be traded until 1 year from when he signed - which I believe was mid-August - can he? They would have to do a player to be named later deal, which I guess would not be hard, and the other team would have less than a month to wait, so that may not be a hindrnce at all

PuffyPig
07-18-2011, 04:54 PM
I would trade Grandal in a heartbeat as I don't believe he will be that great a catcher as a Major Leaguer. I'm not even sure his bat will play all that well either. So if someone is willing to accept him as a strong piece in a deal for a front line pitcher or bat or even a similar prospect at a position of need I'm in (say like 3rd base). Now of course if the organization strongly believes he could play 3rd or they consider him a strong potential replacement for Votto (assuming they expect Votto to leave via FA) then I'd be much more inclined to keep him.



IMO, you underestimate Grandal greatly.

He's always had great plate discipline, and some power, and he should hit enough to be a veryt good regular catcher in the majors.

It's more like Mess will be moved off of catcher.

HokieRed
07-18-2011, 04:55 PM
I like them both and would be extremely reluctant to trade Grandal. Mes would be next to untouchable. They both represent tremendous value to the club over the next 6-7 years.

Edd Roush
07-18-2011, 05:00 PM
Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, and Aroldis Chapman are all in their low-mid 20's. To say this team's window is closing is kind of silly at this point.

Votto is gone after 2013, though. I am not ready to proclaim that Leake is an above-average major leaguer yet. Bruce will be there. Pitchers are volatile, but Cueto should be a part of the next window too. I think Homer Bailey could be a big part of this team's future, but his injury history scares me. Chapman may never be moved to the rotation.

I want to win while Phillips is here and while Rolen has temporarily filled the black hole at third base ever since Sabo. I think the Reds will still be good in 2014, but I would like to see the Reds make themselves as competitive as possible before their All Stars are gone at second and third and their MVP has moved on to greener pastures.

I am not trying to be a pessimist, I am just trying to be a realist. An ace really boosts this team's chances this year and for the next couple.

TRF
07-18-2011, 05:01 PM
I get a Saltamacchia vibe from Grandal.

Edd Roush
07-18-2011, 05:03 PM
Grandal can't be traded until 1 year from when he signed - which I believe was mid-August - can he?

They can't name him in a deal, but he can be an agreed on PTBNL and then change teams one year after he signed. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Mario-Rijo
07-18-2011, 05:05 PM
IMO, you underestimate Grandal greatly.

He's always had great plate discipline, and some power, and he should hit enough to be a veryt good regular catcher in the majors.

It's more like Mess will be moved off of catcher.

I doubt it very much, Mes is a much better defender. I don't believe Grandal has the arm to stick at catcher and he isn't particularly nifty in any other aspect of catching either, JMO.

Mario-Rijo
07-18-2011, 05:07 PM
I get a Saltamacchia vibe from Grandal.

Absolutely, couldn't have made a better comp.

Kc61
07-18-2011, 05:36 PM
So, if a high end pitcher becomes available, only the Reds can get him?

Because only the Reds have Mess.

We have enough quality prospects to complete a deal deal without including Mess.

Much like teams without Mess can complete a deal also.

Lots of high end deals get completed without a team's best prospect being included.

If the Reds go for a truly high end pitcher, IMO it is highly likely that the trade partner will insist on Mes.

The Reds could say no. Maybe the deal happens anyway, maybe not.

The other teams aren't stupid. Mes is by far the Reds' best prospect in the minors. They all know it.

So -- this year -- it could be a choice between keeping Mes or getting the pitcher.

Hope not, but it could easily turn out that way.

dougdirt
07-18-2011, 05:58 PM
I doubt it very much, Mes is a much better defender. I don't believe Grandal has the arm to stick at catcher and he isn't particularly nifty in any other aspect of catching either, JMO.

Grandal's pop time in in the 1.9-1.95 range, which is considered average. Plenty of arm.

lollipopcurve
07-18-2011, 05:58 PM
So -- this year -- it could be a choice between keeping Mes or getting the pitcher.

Hope not, but it could easily turn out that way.

If it's the Rockies, they have an elite catching prospect at AA in Wilin Rosario. Mesoraco wouldn't need to be in that deal.

Captain Hook
07-18-2011, 05:59 PM
Ramon Hernandez is having a career year. The Reds will let him walk, get two draft picks, and have Mesoraco as the full time catcher next year.

It would be foolish to do things any other way imo.If the Rockies want Mes they can have him,maybe but I need Ubaldo in return and I'd still hesitate.I know the thirst for another(we have one already in Cueto)ace is pretty high and I understand.Pitching wins championships.I just think that Leake and Bailey are on the verge of making our 1,2,3 as good as anyones.I don't believe it will too be long before Mes is playing everyday, holding down a spot in the middle of the Reds lineup while playing a position most teams don't expect much from offensively.I know the old saying around here that" anyone can be traded if the price is right and it improves the team" but I'm sure not ready to trade a guy that most experts would call the best catching prospect in baseball.

paulrichjr
07-18-2011, 06:20 PM
If the Reds go for a truly high end pitcher, IMO it is highly likely that the trade partner will insist on Mes.

The Reds could say no. Maybe the deal happens anyway, maybe not.

The other teams aren't stupid. Mes is by far the Reds' best prospect in the minors. They all know it.

So -- this year -- it could be a choice between keeping Mes or getting the pitcher.

Hope not, but it could easily turn out that way.

How many big deals at the trade deadline require the team in the Reds position to deal their number 1 prospect? I would say almost none....especially over the past 5 years or so. In fact most trades have been made over the past 5 years for big time pitchers that didn't even require the 2nd best prospect.

GAC
07-18-2011, 06:24 PM
Really good catchers are nearly as valuable as good pitching. I would be very careful to who and for who I traded before either of these guys. You would hate to give up the next great catcher. Another one may not come around for another 30 years.

Bingo!

Kc61
07-18-2011, 06:34 PM
How many big deals at the trade deadline require the team in the Reds position to deal their number 1 prospect? I would say almost none....especially over the past 5 years or so. In fact most trades have been made over the past 5 years for big time pitchers that didn't even require the 2nd best prospect.

Wasn't there a very highly rated prospect traded in the Cliff Lee deal last year? Smoak wasn't it? And when Milwaukee got Sabbathia?

I don't remember them all, but there usually is one very highly rated prospect in big deadline deals for pitchers.

And Lee and Sabbathia were rentals. Jiminez, for example, is not. He will command even more.

I fully expect teams to be pushing hard for Mes in these negotiations.

Again, I'm not saying they won't ultimately capitulate. The Reds might get a stud pitcher for less. But I think Mes will be demanded up until the end.

mdccclxix
07-18-2011, 06:52 PM
Wasn't there a very highly rated prospect traded in the Cliff Lee deal last year? Smoak wasn't it? And when Milwaukee got Sabbathia?

I don't remember them all, but there usually is one very highly rated prospect in big deadline deals for pitchers.

And Lee and Sabbathia were rentals. Jiminez, for example, is not. He will command even more.

I fully expect teams to be pushing hard for Mes in these negotiations.

Again, I'm not saying they won't ultimately capitulate. The Reds might get a stud pitcher for less. But I think Mes will be demanded up until the end.

Teams are able to draw a line from the beginning though and leave certain prospects out of the discussion. IIRC, the Phillies did that with Brown a few years ago.

muddie
07-18-2011, 06:58 PM
Frankly, I don't know that Grandal is viewed as highly outside the Reds organization as he is getting credit for here. Taking nothing away from the guy, I don't know that he will bring a lot at this point. I wouldn't trade the guy.

Agree with others, there are other positions in this organization to trade from.

I(heart)Freel
07-18-2011, 10:50 PM
Frankly, I don't know that Grandal is viewed as highly outside the Reds organization as he is getting credit for here. Taking nothing away from the guy, I don't know that he will bring a lot at this point. I wouldn't trade the guy.

Agree with others, there are other positions in this organization to trade from.

On the contrary...

both Reds on Baseball Prospectus' Midseason Prospect Top 50 List (published today) were catchers. Mes at 11 and Grandal at 30.

Caseyfan21
07-18-2011, 11:01 PM
I wouldn't hesitate to include any prospect in the Reds system in a deal for a guaranteed front line pitcher. This team absolutely needs a shut down ace if they want to go anywhere in the post season. Prospects are never a sure thing. If you want a true ace pitcher you're going to have to give up substantial value in the current market.

edabbs44
07-18-2011, 11:18 PM
If Cincy can get that much more for Mes and yet see them in a similar way in the future, then Mes has to be the one to go, if they had to trade one.

It all depends on the return and internal thoughts on the both.

Spitball
07-18-2011, 11:28 PM
Wasn't there a very highly rated prospect traded in the Cliff Lee deal last year? Smoak wasn't it? And when Milwaukee got Sabbathia?

I don't remember them all, but there usually is one very highly rated prospect in big deadline deals for pitchers.

And Lee and Sabbathia were rentals. Jiminez, for example, is not. He will command even more.

I fully expect teams to be pushing hard for Mes in these negotiations.

Again, I'm not saying they won't ultimately capitulate. The Reds might get a stud pitcher for less. But I think Mes will be demanded up until the end.

I hear what you are saying, but Lee and Sabathia reeled in Smoak and LaPorta, two first base prospects in about the same class as Yonder Alonso. Of course, Jimenez will be under control for more years, but then he does not have the track record of Lee or Sabathia.

I would not give up Mes for Jimenez. Apparently, his radar readings are down a few miles per hour and the Rockies are perhaps trying to cash in before he loses his value. It is odd that they would try to market the guy after his breakout year. Maybe the Reds should have marketed Harang at the same point three years ago.

Captain Hook
07-18-2011, 11:36 PM
I wouldn't hesitate to include any prospect in the Reds system in a deal for a guaranteed front line pitcher. This team absolutely needs a shut down ace if they want to go anywhere in the post season. Prospects are never a sure thing. If you want a true ace pitcher you're going to have to give up substantial value in the current market.

If it's was sure thing or at least almost a sure thing that the Reds would make it to the post season this year then I'd agree.It's not and it still wouldn't be if they got Ubaldo.I think you only make a move like what your talking about if your in control of your division with the WC to fall back on and your just one player away from being able to compete with one of the real contenders.Right now the Reds are having trouble competing with the Pirates.

cinreds21
07-19-2011, 12:08 AM
Absolutely, couldn't have made a better comp.

He's sleeping with his teacher?

kaldaniels
07-19-2011, 12:17 AM
On the contrary...

both Reds on Baseball Prospectus' Midseason Prospect Top 50 List (published today) were catchers. Mes at 11 and Grandal at 30.

Thats how I feel. I think Grandal is getting overshadowed by Mes. They are both good.

Mario-Rijo
07-19-2011, 11:25 AM
He's sleeping with his teacher?

Your the insider... ;)

cinreds21
07-19-2011, 11:50 AM
Your the insider... ;)

I was making a joke because of the comparison to Salty. Salty married his high school teacher.


*Disclaimer Yas is NOT sleeping with his high school teacher, it was a joke :)

Mario-Rijo
07-19-2011, 08:29 PM
I was making a joke because of the comparison to Salty. Salty married his high school teacher.


*Disclaimer Yas is NOT sleeping with his high school teacher, it was a joke :)

I figured as much. :thumbup:

Kc61
07-20-2011, 10:31 AM
Read a report in another thread that Mes would be in a Ubaldo deal. As per MLBTR. If true, that's a big gamble.
Too bad Reds may lose this guy.

corkedbat
07-20-2011, 10:37 AM
Read a report in another thread that Mes would be in a Ubaldo deal. As per MLBTR. If true, that's a big gamble.
Too bad Reds may lose this guy.

Blech! Too many questions about Jimmenez to lose Mes. Hope it's straight up.

Kc61
07-20-2011, 10:39 AM
Blech! Too many questions about Jimmenez to lose Mes. Hope it's straight up.

I guess Walt doesn't want to wait for Mes to adjust to the big leagues, etc., a process that could take awhile.

Jiminez is a proven pitcher and Reds want to get better quickly.

if this happens - Ubaldo better be good.

corkedbat
07-20-2011, 11:35 AM
I guess Walt doesn't want to wait for Mes to adjust to the big leagues, etc., a process that could take awhile.

Jiminez is a proven pitcher and Reds want to get better quickly.

if this happens - Ubaldo better be good.

Me too KC. Don't get me wrong, as much as I love Mes (and Grandal, I would deal one in a deal for a legit Ace. Questions around Ubldo make me wonder about him.

Tony Cloninger
07-20-2011, 11:39 AM
Add more w/o having to trade Mes. Grandal, Alonso, and Volquez. If they want more...tell them Wood but ask for someone from their farm.