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Dan
07-19-2011, 10:15 AM
Two questions.

First, never mind about general fan perception, how would YOU feel about the Reds waving the white flag this year? They're in 4th place in a weak division. The roster is stocked with young, talented guys. But with youth comes the inconsistency we're seeing now.

For me, I would be OK with it as long as it came with a plan for getting the younger guys more experience.

Second, what moves would you want to see if the white flag was waved?

I would want to see Hernandez traded, Mes up. Renteria DFA'd, and Janish brought up. Rolen to the DL and Frazier brought up. Gomes and Lewis traded or DFA'd and Alonso brought up. Also test the market for Volquez and Cordero. I'm not proposing any specific trades, just the players I'd like to see getting regular time until the end of the year.

Homer Bailey
07-19-2011, 10:18 AM
First, never mind about general fan perception, how would YOU feel about the Reds waving the white flag this year? They're in 4th place in a weak division. The roster is stocked with young, talented guys. But with youth comes the inconsistency we're seeing now.

I feel that would be insanely incompetent GM'ing. The Reds have the best run differential in the central, and are only four games back with over 60 games to play. If the Reds get a few more hits to fall last night, they'd be 2 games out instead of 4. That's how volatile the situation still is. Four games is not a lot.


Second, what moves would you want to see if the white flag was waved?

N/A.

HokieRed
07-19-2011, 10:19 AM
I like the moves you suggest. I'd add stretching out Chapman with an eye toward putting him in the 2012 rotation and I'd begin to experiment at closer. Mes I'd bring up only according to his own timetable. Given Alonso and Frazier's time at AAA, I assume they're ready to be brought now. A number of these moves could be made without necessarily this being waving a white flag. I assume, for instance, that inserting Yonder Alonso into the lineup and using Frazier at 3b if Rolen is in need of going on the DL will actually strengthen the club now.

The Voice of IH
07-19-2011, 10:19 AM
Read My Sig.

Mario-Rijo
07-19-2011, 10:19 AM
Two questions.

First, never mind about general fan perception, how would YOU feel about the Reds waving the white flag this year? They're in 4th place in a weak division. The roster is stocked with young, talented guys. But with youth comes the inconsistency we're seeing now.

For me, I would be OK with it as long as it came with a plan for getting the younger guys more experience.

Second, what moves would you want to see if the white flag was waved?

I would want to see Hernandez traded, Mes up. Renteria DFA'd, and Janish brought up. Rolen to the DL and Frazier brought up. Gomes and Lewis traded or DFA'd and Alonso brought up. Also test the market for Volquez and Cordero. I'm not proposing any specific trades, just the players I'd like to see getting regular time until the end of the year.

Pretty sound decisions if this happened, though I doubt anyone is giving up on this season until well after September starts. Nor should they.

But if it happened I'd like to see Sappelt playing LF and Mes behind the dish, I'd be cool with seeing Frazier up to but not really interested in the rest much. Oh I'd maybe bring up Boxberger in September.

Kc61
07-19-2011, 10:25 AM
At this point the Reds shouldn't stand pat. They aren't good enough to just continue with the current cast. And as I said in another thread, I'd be happy to see Alonso and Sappelt get a chance.

But we are drawing close to the trade deadline. First thing Reds must do is try to package some prospects and get one or two good veteran players. NOT RENTALS. But the time has come to cash in some of the prospects and make the major league club better.

After the trade deadline, I agree that the Reds should start bringing up prospects - those not traded - and DFA some of the veterans who aren't working out. In particular, Alonso and Sappelt deserve a shot in the outfield. Gomes and Lewis aren't adding a great deal to the club at this point.

First thing, though, is July 31. Reds should see what business they can transact by that date.

Eric_the_Red
07-19-2011, 10:37 AM
If the organization threw in the towel for this season, so would I. No more watching or going to games. If they don't care about their onfield performance this year, why should I?

nate
07-19-2011, 10:39 AM
The Reds are within a few games of the lead with a lot of baseball left to play. I wouldn't begrudge anyone's decision to tune out early but to me, we're just getting into the most exciting part of the season.

Throwing in the towel now seems like a bad idea to me.

George Anderson
07-19-2011, 10:43 AM
Just a few short years ago Reds fans would be thrilled to only be 4 games out at this point in the season. This team certainly has it's issues but it's baseball and anything can happen.

pedro
07-19-2011, 10:50 AM
Janish should never play another game for the Reds IMO, cut Renteria, fine, but for the love all god, spare us Janish, he's beyond awful.

HokieRed
07-19-2011, 10:57 AM
Janish should never play another game for the Reds IMO, cut Renteria, fine, but for the love all god, spare us Janish, he's beyond awful.

I think Janish can be useful next year in a purely backup role--30 starts--behind Reyes at SS and Cozart at 2B.

Dan
07-19-2011, 11:09 AM
Janish should never play another game for the Reds IMO, cut Renteria, fine, but for the love all god, spare us Janish, he's beyond awful.

I pointed out in another thread that a perfect destination for Janish would be the Rays. If you think Janish is bad, Brignac has had an OPS (yes, you read that right) of .460. Janish would be a significant upgrade for the Rays right now.

Dan
07-19-2011, 11:14 AM
The reason I wouldn't mind throwing in the towel at this point is this: The Reds, as currently constructed, are not a WS winning team. Maybe they make the playoffs. Maybe. But they would quickly exit stage left. And if you're a team playing for any goal other than winning the WS, then you're doing it wrong.

That said, I also think the talent on the roster IS capable of going all the way. I'm definitely not of a fire-sale, blow it up and start over mindset. But the kids need more time in the majors to gel. Especially the ones whose roles have been limited, or non-existent to this point. So getting them real experience with at least the chance of picking up steam AND actually making the playoffs would be ideal. Waiting until the Reds are 10 games out would be a total waste.

pedro
07-19-2011, 11:15 AM
I think Janish can be useful next year in a purely backup role--30 starts--behind Reyes at SS and Cozart at 2B.

I'll be surprised if he starts 30 games in any season in the majors again.

CySeymour
07-19-2011, 11:21 AM
I don't want them, or feel they should throw in the towel. But I just find it puzzling the seemingly lack of desire for the franchise to do anything to address the needs. Yeah, maybe trading for Beltran or Reyes isn't really possible, but it just seems they are not interested in doing anything. It took forever to call up Cozart, and left field continues to be a problem, yet the Reds don't seem interested in seeing how the guys down in AAA can do up here. They really couldn't do much worse, and if anything it would strengthen them for 2012.

Tony Cloninger
07-19-2011, 11:28 AM
They are at 40 games now of 3 runs or less, 52 games of 4 or less. So in more than half the games, the offense has been less than average. Since May 1, they have averaged 4.4 runs/game which would put them at 13th in MLB. However, since June 1st they have averaged 4.2 runs/game which places them 20th. Run production has dropped every month this year....Yet they still are #1 in Runs Scored and other offensive categories. :confused:

The pitching continues to be more inconsistent than the offense....then when both work the bullpen decides to join the party and implode.

I don't want them waving the white flag like the White Sox did about 14 years back...beacuse I still think they can make some trades to help this team win the division and make a better showing in the playoffs.

Slyder
07-19-2011, 11:33 AM
Janish needs to rebuild his entire swing. He has lost everything with the bat (granted he didn't have much to begin with) but I figure Larkin at this point could walk back in and provide more than Janish could. He will never be an everyday guy but he could be a utility guy for someone.

We cannot stand pat whether it means trading off a couple vets or trading for a couple vets or acquire a couple vets. This team as currently constructed is not good enough to compete.

Personally:
After consulting with the scouts I would trade Hernandez to someone for some spects and call up Mes.
If it is true that Colorado is shopping Ubaldo I offer up Francisco (I'm not that high on Francisco, if needed), Alonso, their choice of CF Stubbs/Heisey/Sappelt, their choice of Surkamp (if acquired via Ramon)/ Leake/Volquez/Wood and another spect from lower on the food chain and not think twice.
I would find a cheap glove guy and DFA Renteria.(maybe someone like Jamey Carroll from LA). He would backup 2b, ss, and be emergency 3b (I still keep Cairo as backup at the corner).

*BaseClogger*
07-19-2011, 11:36 AM
I'll be surprised if he starts 30 games in any season in the majors again.

If John McDonald can...

REDREAD
07-19-2011, 12:00 PM
I would be very angry if the team waved the white flag.
They are still very much in the pennant race.

D Willis has been a shot in the arm so far. Even though he didn't get the win last night, he pitched well.

I have zero desire to see Janish ever again. I don't want to see Rolen and Gomes pushed aside for Frasier and Alonso.

The Reds have waved the white flag too many times in the past. To give up when they are this close would make me angry.. In fact, I would probably lose all faith in Cast, whom I think has done a wonderful job trying to resurrect this franchise.

REDREAD
07-19-2011, 12:04 PM
The reason I wouldn't mind throwing in the towel at this point is this: The Reds, as currently constructed, are not a WS winning team. Maybe they make the playoffs. Maybe. But they would quickly exit stage left. And if you're a team playing for any goal other than winning the WS, then you're doing it wrong.
.

You have to get to the playoffs in order to win the world series.
Throwing in the towel only puts us farther from the goal of the WS.
You don't seriously think that Frasier, Janish, and Alonso in LF is going to make us a WS contender next year, do you? Alonso might be a modest upgrade. Frasier and Janish are backups at best.

Pressuring Rolen to go to the DL and dumping/DFAing Renturia, Cordero, Gomes and Lewis sounds like a great way to ensure that no veteran players will want to come to Cincinnati.

Reds1
07-19-2011, 12:29 PM
I don't understand this. 4 games in a weak division. We have a decent prospect list. I think the time is to go for it now not back off. Right now with what I have seen of Homer and now Willis adding a bat or making a couple choice decisions who starts could be all this team needs. Reds don't get many chances or haven't the past decade - I want my team and my GM to go for it. Like someone else said - if we win last night we are only 2 games out. It's not like there is a week left in the season. Lets get this done and quit making excuses. Best record in the central against the central. To steal a line - JUST DO IT!

dfs
07-19-2011, 12:51 PM
I would be very angry if the team waved the white flag. They are still very much in the pennant race.

I agree. Waiving a white flag means dealing pieces that might be helpful to another team for prospects. Think about that for a minute. that's just what this team needs. More prospects to sort through.

Yeah, you can get rid of Cordero and Hernandez, but if what you get back isn't really of value to you.....then why do it? It might save you a couple of dollars, but the message to the fans may well cost you just as much as you save.


I have zero desire to see Janish ever again.

Janish, Volquez and Maloney have all pretty much played themselves out of the franchise's plans. Dusty plays them till they fail. It would be a surprise to see any of them get playing time on the major league roster.

PuffyPig
07-19-2011, 12:53 PM
The reason I wouldn't mind throwing in the towel at this point is this: The Reds, as currently constructed, are not a WS winning team. Maybe they make the playoffs. Maybe. But they would quickly exit stage left. And if you're a team playing for any goal other than winning the WS, then you're doing it wrong.



Any team that makes the playoffs can win the WS. That's baseball.

pedro
07-19-2011, 12:57 PM
If John McDonald can...

Janish plays scared. He just doesn't have the mental makeup to hack it at the major league level IMO. But enough about him, he's gone.

As for the original post I'm for a balanced approach in which the Reds neither have a fire sale nor trade prospects for rentals. If the Reds can make trades that improve them moving forward then that's great but I don't want to see trades just for trades sake.

PuffyPig
07-19-2011, 01:01 PM
If it is true that Colorado is shopping Ubaldo I offer up Francisco (I'm not that high on Francisco, if needed), Alonso, their choice of CF Stubbs/Heisey/Sappelt, their choice of Surkamp (if acquired via Ramon)/ Leake/Volquez/Wood and another spect from lower on the food chain and not think twice.


I'm not sure you even thought once!!!! ;)

That's a ton of talent for one pitcher.

Franscisco, Alonso, Stubbs, Leake and another propsect is way too much for a pitcvher who hasn't pitched much better than Leake.

You've lumped in certain players together like they have similiar value.

Stubbs had lots more value than Heisey and a ton more than Sappelt.

Leake has way more value than Travis Wood.

A trade of Franscico, Sappelt, Alonso and Wood for Jimenez would be very acceptable.

westofyou
07-19-2011, 01:03 PM
The division is winnable, the fan base is still in need of being coddled, prodded, and shaped.

Giving up is Mike Brownesque and suicide in a market that still is cynical over 10 years of stink.

Roy Tucker
07-19-2011, 01:03 PM
The Reds just seem to have a veeerrry deliberate process for letting a guy prove whether he can or cannot do the job. They pretty well give him every chance in the world before giving up on him.

My very half-baked theory is that the Reds know that when they pull the plug on a guy, they are telling him he can't do the job any more and they've lost all confidence in him. He'll have a very tough row to hoe to get back in good graces with the big club and its all pretty damaging to the player's confidence.

Since the Reds are still pretty hamstrung when it comes to budget, they only throw a player under the bus only when there is really no other choice.

reds44
07-19-2011, 01:14 PM
I feel that would be insanely incompetent GM'ing. The Reds have the best run differential in the central, and are only four games back with over 60 games to play. If the Reds get a few more hits to fall last night, they'd be 2 games out instead of 4. That's how volatile the situation still is. Four games is not a lot.

If Cordero doesn't blow two games in Milwaukee this team is tied for first right now.

Like you said, four game out is nothing. There is zero chance the Reds waive the white flag, nor should they.

Anybody who says they should is letting their frustration get in the way of their thinking.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-19-2011, 01:42 PM
I would want to see Hernandez traded, Mes up. Renteria DFA'd, and Janish brought up. Rolen to the DL and Frazier brought up. Gomes and Lewis traded or DFA'd and Alonso brought up.

I'm not even sure this is waving the white flag. All these moves make this club stronger now and going forward.


If Cordero doesn't blow two games in Milwaukee this team is tied for first right now.

And I expect more of the same from Cordero. Too many walks and doesn't miss bats. As long as he is put into position to blow games, I'm afraid he will continue to do so.

In my opinion, he is one of the worst pitchers in the pen. I would trust Bray, LeCure, Massett, Ondrusek, etc over him going forward.

Slyder
07-19-2011, 01:46 PM
I'm not sure you even thought once!!!! ;)

That's a ton of talent for one pitcher.

Franscisco, Alonso, Stubbs, Leake and another propsect is way too much for a pitcher who hasn't pitched much better than Leake.

You've lumped in certain players together like they have similiar value.

Stubbs had lots more value than Heisey and a ton more than Sappelt.

Leake has way more value than Travis Wood.

A trade of Franscico, Sappelt, Alonso and Wood for Jimenez would be very acceptable.


Every team may look at the same guy differently. My point being no one would be a deal breaker from the farm.

corkedbat
07-19-2011, 01:47 PM
If Cordero doesn't blow two games in Milwaukee this team is tied for first right now.

Like you said, four game out is nothing. There is zero chance the Reds waive the white flag, nor should they.

Anybody who says they should is letting their frustration get in the way of their thinking.

I'm not sure that anyone would give us much, but I would deal Cordero if given the opportunity. I would move Masset into the closer's role and hive chapman opportunities. I'd also look at any reliever acquired and I'd consider Arredondo (when he returns) and maybe later, later Boxberger for significant innings to see what we having going forward.

No way I'd pick up Coco's option or offer him arb, so I'd deal him now (if at all possible) and go young.

Dan
07-19-2011, 02:04 PM
Any team that makes the playoffs can win the WS. That's baseball.

And in any game where you roll the dice, the house wins.

For my money, if they took the longer term approach, they're putting themselves in a position for future seasons where other teams will be gambling to catch up.

REDREAD
07-19-2011, 03:12 PM
Franscisco, Alonso, Stubbs, Leake and another propsect is way too much for a pitcvher who hasn't pitched much better than Leake.


I agree. Stubbs and Leake are untouchable, IMO. Even for Jimminez.

The Rockies can have any 3 players in our minors (including Wood and Volquez), although they can have only one of the prime catching prospects.
That should be enough to get the job done. If they really want Heisey as one of the 3 players, that's doable I guess.. Everyone else on the ML roster is either critical or has little/no trade value so it's pointless to add them.

reds44
07-19-2011, 03:15 PM
Drew Stubbs and Mike Leake are not untouchable. That's still too much to give up for Ubaldo, though.

IslandRed
07-19-2011, 03:18 PM
The division is winnable, the fan base is still in need of being coddled, prodded, and shaped.

Giving up is Mike Brownesque and suicide in a market that still is cynical over 10 years of stink.

Exactly how I see it. If the team tanks, then so be it. But it would be a PR disaster to run up the white flag before the season is asking for a surrender.

mdccclxix
07-19-2011, 03:34 PM
Drew Stubbs and Mike Leake are not untouchable. That's still too much to give up for Ubaldo, though.

Personally, I think Stubbs for Jiminez is close to even. It's not enough, but it's a major, major piece. He's even more cost controlled than Jiminez and is likely to be a 4-5 WAR player on average for another 4-5 years. After that we're talking Alonso or Wood and call it a day, IMO.

PuffyPig
07-19-2011, 03:55 PM
And in any game where you roll the dice, the house wins.



That's simply not true, the house does not always win.

Yes the odds favour the house, but it's not that huge if you play smart.

Your best chance of beating the house is to beat it short term, as the longer you play the better chance the house's better odds will eventually beat you.

There are 8 teams that make the playoffs, giving each team a 12.5% chance of winning the WS.

Now some teams are better than others, but the odds don't change all that much in baseball.

I'd suggest that an inferior team has a better chance of beating a better team in a short series than over a full season.

remdog
07-19-2011, 04:53 PM
Trade Dusty to the Sacramento Rivercats for thier head groundskeeper. Send the groundskeeper to Bakersfield and have him try to rehabilitate the field.

Hire Pete MacKanin or Jack McKeon and....oh, wait....someone beat the Reds to McKeon. Never mind, carry on. :lol:

I would now definately option Baker to Bakersfield however. ;)

Rem

GAC
07-19-2011, 04:56 PM
The Reds are within a few games of the lead with a lot of baseball left to play. I wouldn't begrudge anyone's decision to tune out early but to me, we're just getting into the most exciting part of the season.

Throwing in the towel now seems like a bad idea to me.

You're absolutely right; but some thing has to be done to "jolt" this offense. Need far better production from the #4 spot then what we are currently getting.

mth123
07-19-2011, 06:49 PM
No White flag. The Reds don't really have any vets to deal that will bring anything back that will make an impact anyway.

As far as I'm concerned, for all this talk of the future, the future is very much in doubt after 2013. When Votto and Phillips go there are no replacements who aren't big downgrades (3B is problematic as well with or after Rolen IMO). They have 2 and 1/2 seasons to take a step forward. Don't waste one dealing guys off for the next Kirk Saarloos or Chris Valaika (because that's all you'll get IMO).

reds44
07-19-2011, 06:52 PM
You're absolutely right; but some thing has to be done to "jolt" this offense. Need far better production from the #4 spot then what we are currently getting.
This I agree with.

Raisor
07-19-2011, 07:51 PM
If the Reds throw in the towel this early, I'm done.

OldXOhio
07-19-2011, 09:33 PM
I'd actually welcome the flag waving if it meant dealing off veterans not in the plans for next year. Show me a plan with something to be excited about towards the future and I'll be all for it. This team's going nowhere in 2011.

Joseph
07-19-2011, 09:59 PM
5 games with 60 something to play is not something they can't overcome.

Being in 4th place might well be though.

OldXOhio
07-19-2011, 10:19 PM
5 games with 60 something to play is not something they can't overcome.

Being in 4th place might well be though.

I don't see any reason at this time to have faith. They just don't have it. The opportunity has been laid before them for months now and they just can't get themselves off the floor to do anything about it.

Roy Tucker
07-19-2011, 10:22 PM
I don't see any reason at this time to have faith. They just don't have it. The opportunity has been laid before them for months now and they just can't get themselves off the floor to do anything about it.

Baseball is a crazy game. Look at last August after the Reds got swept at home by the Cards. Things never looked blacker.

There Is Still Time ... Brother.

OldXOhio
07-19-2011, 10:32 PM
Baseball is a crazy game. Look at last August after the Reds got swept at home by the Cards. Things never looked blacker.

There Is Still Time ... Brother.

Of course there's still time. But don't you feel like you've been saying this for quite some time now? And all the while, we march further into the season and the team's record keeps sinking.

Spitball
07-19-2011, 10:56 PM
Of course there's still time. But don't you feel like you've been saying this for quite some time now? And all the while, we march further into the season and the team's record keeps sinking.

Oh, geeze! The Reds are made up of a bunch of promising young players...Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Cozart, Leake, Cueto, etc. Don't teach these kids that the team accepts quiting...losing...giving up when things look bleak. These kids are athletes who need to believe they can fight back and win. Don't show them the old, "Boys, we are a full five games back and we are giving up."

OldXOhio
07-19-2011, 11:00 PM
If this were the Cardinals playing this way, and with this record, most on here would pronounce them done.

Spitball
07-19-2011, 11:09 PM
And further, I think about all the players the Reds have dumped in the past and ask what did they gain? Aaron Harang and Nick Massett...anyone else? I can't come up with anyone else off the top of my head.

Spitball
07-19-2011, 11:10 PM
If this were the Cardinals playing this way, and with this record, most on here would pronounce them done.

So...?

OldXOhio
07-19-2011, 11:20 PM
So...?

So sometimes we as fans might be too close to the situation to objectively evaluate what you have. That can be said of those on both sides of the argument.

So while only time will tell, what makes this team so special that some can hold them to a different standard than its rivals?

IslandRed
07-19-2011, 11:29 PM
I believe the point is, just because we would claim the Cardinals were done wouldn't make it so.

Spitball
07-19-2011, 11:40 PM
So sometimes we as fans might be too close to the situation to objectively evaluate what you have. That can be said of those on both sides of the argument.

So, we can say reality, even optimism, is difficult to grasp if you are a certain kind of fan.


So while only time will tell, what makes this team so special that some can hold them to a different standard than its rivals?

Uh...I think it has to do with being fan.

OldXOhio
07-19-2011, 11:41 PM
I believe the point is, just because we would claim the Cardinals were done wouldn't make it so.

Or the use of rose colored glasses can be commonplace.

IslandRed
07-19-2011, 11:56 PM
Or the use of rose colored glasses can be commonplace.

I'm a Reds fan. I know it's improbable they'll make the postseason, but there's no payoff for refusing to hope for the best. :cool:

Spitball
07-20-2011, 12:10 AM
I'm a Reds fan. I know it's improbable they'll make the postseason, but there's no payoff for refusing to hope for the best. :cool:

Right. You never accept losing...never...unless you are OldXOhio....:)

signalhome
07-20-2011, 12:10 AM
If this were the Cardinals playing this way, and with this record, most on here would pronounce them done.

I have to disagree with this statement. If the Cardinals had the Reds' record and had the Reds' run differential, I'm 100% positive I would be saying that the Reds need to watch out for the Cardinals, they're dangerous. I think most people that still believe the Reds have a chance would be saying the same.

OldXOhio
07-20-2011, 12:18 AM
Right. You never accept losing...never...unless you are OldXOhio....:)

Nah, I'm just bitter and frustrated. And of the opinion that my team just isn't very good. I think enough time has passed to show that the 2011 Reds just don't have it. Of course I'd love nothing better than to be wrong.

And Island I hear ya....good for you for not letting pessimism taint you. Spoken like a true Seminole.

mth123
07-20-2011, 12:23 AM
Can some one in the white flag camp please tell me exactly what waving the white flag might accomplish? How will it help the future? Who do they have to deal that will bring back any player or pitcher who will be any better or even close to as good as what is already stacked up as excess in AAA?

I'm against the white flag routine becasue I don't believe this mythical future has much chance of being a better opportunity to win than the present and I really don't see how dealing the vets we have is going to bring anything more than second rate prospects in return. May as well keep fighting the fight.

oregonred
07-20-2011, 12:34 AM
Since May 17th the Reds have played .400 baseball over 1/3rd of a season. That's a 64-98 pace. We can keep deluding ourselves, but the reality is you can stick a fork in this forgettable team for 2011.

Yes, the division is amazingly still winnable and the staff appears to be coming around, but this team just doesn't have it this year. 10 runs in 5 games since the ASB, despite solid pitching for another 2-3 losing stretch. In Milwaukee they score 22 runs over 4 days and still manage to go 1-3. For whatever reason the fire is gone and losing has been accepted (and expected). Even the one bright spot, Joey Votto seems to all of a sudden be going Sean Casey on us with his warning track power. Going a month without winning back to back games is almost mathematically impossible when you think about it. Watching utterly useless roster fodder like Fred Lewis brings back the good times of the nowheresville 2001-2009 stretch.

A pedestrian 88 wins means a 41-24 pace the rest of the way. Just not going to happen with the current roster construct. Rolen, Volquez, Chapman and Arroyo have contributed virtually nothing all year which was just too much to overcome. On the bright side the pitching rotation has shaken out, Cueto and Leake are the keepers, Bailey as well barring injuries. Now gotta find two more in the offseason although I haven't given up on Wood for 2012 and beyond. The foolish Arroyo extension for 2012 and 2013 is going to really hurt in the offseason (I would have picked up his option for this season but complete idiocy to extend him before 2011 played out).

The complete mismanagement of Chapman is what baffles me the most. So far nearly $10M flushed down the drain and the organization still can't figure out what to do with him.

Guacarock
07-20-2011, 02:41 AM
Since May 17th the Reds have played .400 baseball over 1/3rd of a season. That's a 64-98 pace. We can keep deluding ourselves, but the reality is you can stick a fork in this forgettable team for 2011.

Yes, the division is amazingly still winnable and the staff appears to be coming around, but this team just doesn't have it this year. 10 runs in 5 games since the ASB, despite solid pitching for another 2-3 losing stretch. In Milwaukee they score 22 runs over 4 days and still manage to go 1-3. For whatever reason the fire is gone and losing has been accepted (and expected). Even the one bright spot, Joey Votto seems to all of a sudden be going Sean Casey on us with his warning track power. Going a month without winning back to back games is almost mathematically impossible when you think about it. Watching utterly useless roster fodder like Fred Lewis brings back the good times of the nowheresville 2001-2009 stretch.

A pedestrian 88 wins means a 41-24 pace the rest of the way. Just not going to happen with the current roster construct. Rolen, Volquez, Chapman and Arroyo have contributed virtually nothing all year which was just too much to overcome. On the bright side the pitching rotation has shaken out, Cueto and Leake are the keepers, Bailey as well barring injuries. Now gotta find two more in the offseason although I haven't given up on Wood for 2012 and beyond. The foolish Arroyo extension for 2012 and 2013 is going to really hurt in the offseason (I would have picked up his option for this season but complete idiocy to extend him before 2011 played out).

The complete mismanagement of Chapman is what baffles me the most. So far nearly $10M flushed down the drain and the organization still can't figure out what to do with him.

You've hit the nail squarely on the head with most of these points. I'm in accord with you on all of your major assessments and assertions except your chagrin over the handling of Chapman. I can understand your disappointment. After all the advance buildup, we all hoped to see Chapman emerge as our staff ace this season, leading us into our second playoffs and going toe-to-toe with Sabathia, Halladay, Lee, or any other primetime pitcher any other opponent might hurl our direction.

Instead, the Reds pulled Chapman from the rotation and transferred him into the pen, a transition that has been a bit bumpy at times and also has seemed to diminish his value. I get the claims of mismanagement because change has happened, and it's not clear yet if that change was for the good.

But, if you ask me, it's still quite early in the game to be tagging the Reds with failure for not handling Chapman properly. What if, it was determined, that he could physically break down within a year or two as a starter but might enjoy a 5-10 year run as a lights-out closer and setup man? What if his repertoire of pitches didn't suit a starting assignment but lended themselves quite well to him being an extremely effective reliever and facing batters only once per outing?

Imagine this scenario. It's 2012 and Cordero is gone. After a few early-season experiments, we designate Chapman as our closer and over the course of the season he saves, say, 40 out of 42 SVO for a salary that's one-third of what we paid Cordero in 2011. Is that mismanagement or is that an example of being farsighted and effectively using our budget and resources?

In other words, if the Reds have been right in transitioning Chapman to the pen, then the payoff will come soon enough and will be dramatic enough to warrant this season's confusion and turbulence over his roles. I'm not going to argue yet that the team has been right, but I'm also not ready yet to declare they've been wrong. Until we see how this unfolds, it's best to keep an open mind and not be quick to pass judgment based on the possibly false or overhyped expectations that have surrounded Chapman since he turned up on these shores and lit up speedguns with his 105 MPH fastball.

GAC
07-20-2011, 05:44 AM
And further, I think about all the players the Reds have dumped in the past and ask what did they gain? Aaron Harang and Nick Massett...anyone else? I can't come up with anyone else off the top of my head.

The bigger question is - what did they add?

I've been doing a lot of contemplating on this as of late looking at this erratic (inconsistent) offense. After almost a decade of futility we had a good year last season winning the division. But there were still some glaring, and very evident "weaknesses". Yeah, we faced a very solid Philly team in the first round of the post-season, but getting swept should have confirmed to this management that we still have a lot of work to do to address those weaknesses if we want this team to get to the next level, because it's not just about winning the division. And in that sense I think Bob and Walt did a very poor job addressing them going into this season.

LF... they basically dumped Dunn, and most likely because of money and/or he didn't fit Dusty's "mold" of free swinging, make things happen, aggressive player. I'm not lamenting the exit of Dunn so much as I am what they turned to as solutions, and the fact we've been running a hodgepodge of misfits out there ever since. Gome's defense was no better then Dunn's, and we definitely sacrificed offensive production. This management knew this was a problem last season.

This management came from the Cardinals. And it's obvious they want to bring that same attitude and spirit to this organization. I have no problem with that because the Cards, regardless that they are the competition and we hate them, have been winners. But what is this management doing different?

The Cards went out and got a Matt Holiday. They took a gamble on Berkman with a 1 yr contract for straight $8M. Yeah I know. Everyone, myself included, said this guy was washed up. I guess we were wrong huh? He's somehow resurrected himself and is leading their team in BA, Hrs, RBIs, and OB%. But these kinds of moves (even gambles) a Jocketty did while in St Louis. What did our management do? To "complement" Gomes we go on the cheap in acquiring Lewis and Hermedia and keep their fingers crossed.

SS... They decide to "cut loose" and give the job to Janish full time because he provides good defense up the middle, yet knowing his bat has always been a big question mark. They do a trade-off Cabrera for Renteria. It's been a disaster this season. Lets hope Cozart is that answer.

3B.... I had no problem with the Rolen signing at 2 yrs. This is a typical Jocketty move. I didn't care for the extension though. While Scott can still pick it at 3B, his production fell off drastically in the second half last season. Another warning sign this management ignored. And due to age and injury he's been in and out of this lineup, and his production in the #4 hole, as our cleanup guy, has killed us. We're now relying on a guy (Cairo) to play 3B who is a year older then Rolen.

Yes we have a solid core of young players. Both on the current roster and in the minors. That's a positive. But as some have indicated - the "window" is closing on a few of these players whom we assume we may lose, like Votto and Phillips. And this FO seems to be afraid to take that next step, to really invest in the market in a player or two, that could fill those holes and really help this team out in 2011 and maybe beyond.

And that is another thing that bugs me. This talk of how Votto will probably be gone. Unless he doesn't want to be in Cincy, why would this management allow that to happen? Good organizations find a way to make those commitments to the caliber of players like a Votto, and build around them.

We freed up huge amounts of monies over the last few years in Jr, Dunn, Harang, and after this season probably Cordero. Yes, we have spent some of that in extensions to Bruce, buying out Votto's arb years, and Cueto. The Chapman contract, if he pans out, was a steal, definitely not a burden payroll-wise. But overall, I don't think they have been very wise in their management (distribution) of their payroll.

We're a 4th place team in a mediocre division, still very much in the hunt, yet are they really going to do much of anything about it? We'll see I guess.

mth123
07-20-2011, 06:03 AM
The bigger question is - what did they add?

I've been doing a lot of contemplating on this as of late looking at this erratic (inconsistent) offense. After almost a decade of futility we had a good year last season winning the division. But there were still some glaring, and very evident "weaknesses". Yeah, we faced a very solid Philly team in the first round of the post-season, but getting swept should have confirmed to this management that we still have a lot of work to do to address those weaknesses if we want this team to get to the next level, because it's not just about winning the division. And in that sense I think Bob and Walt did a very poor job addressing them going into this season.

LF... they basically dumped Dunn, and most likely because of money and/or he didn't fit Dusty's "mold" of free swinging, make things happen, aggressive player. I'm not lamenting the exit of Dunn so much as I am what they turned to as solutions, and the fact we've been running a hodgepodge of misfits out there ever since. Gome's defense was no better then Dunn's, and we definitely sacrificed offensive production. This management knew this was a problem last season.

This management came from the Cardinals. And it's obvious they want to bring that same attitude and spirit to this organization. I have no problem with that because the Cards, regardless that they are the competition and we hate them, have been winners. But what is this management doing different?

The Cards went out and got a Matt Holiday. They took a gamble on Berkman with a 1 yr contract for straight $8M. Yeah I know. Everyone, myself included, said this guy was washed up. I guess we were wrong huh? He's somehow resurrected himself and is leading their team in BA, Hrs, RBIs, and OB%. But these kinds of moves (even gambles) a Jocketty did while in St Louis. What did our management do? To "complement" Gomes we go on the cheap in acquiring Lewis and Hermedia and keep their fingers crossed.

SS... They decide to "cut loose" and give the job to Janish full time because he provides good defense up the middle, yet knowing his bat has always been a big question mark. They do a trade-off Cabrera for Renteria. It's been a disaster this season. Lets hope Cozart is that answer.

3B.... I had no problem with the Rolen signing at 2 yrs. This is a typical Jocketty move. I didn't care for the extension though. While Scott can still pick it at 3B, his production fell off drastically in the second half last season. Another warning sign this management ignored. And due to age and injury he's been in and out of this lineup, and his production in the #4 hole, as our cleanup guy, has killed us. We're now relying on a guy (Cairo) to play 3B who is a year older then Rolen.

Yes we have a solid core of young players. Both on the current roster and in the minors. That's a positive. But as some have indicated - the "window" is closing on a few of these players whom we assume we may lose, like Votto and Phillips. And this FO seems to be afraid to take that next step, to really invest in the market in a player or two, that could fill those holes and really help this team out in 2011 and maybe beyond.

And that is another thing that bugs me. This talk of how Votto will probably be gone. Unless he doesn't want to be in Cincy, why would this management allow that to happen? Good organizations find a way to make those commitments to the caliber of players like a Votto, and build around them.

We freed up huge amounts of monies over the last few years in Jr, Dunn, Harang, and after this season probably Cordero. Yes, we have spent some of that in extensions to Bruce, buying out Votto's arb years, and Cueto. The Chapman contract, if he pans out, was a steal, definitely not a burden payroll-wise. But overall, I don't think they have been very wise in their management (distribution) of their payroll.

We're a 4th place team in a mediocre division, still very much in the hunt, yet are they really going to do much of anything about it? We'll see I guess.

Good post. Welcome to the club.

One thing I'll add. If Votto goes, I seriously doubt it will be a matter of money. If the Reds can afford him at $19 Million in 2013, signing him for something in the $25 Million per year range for a few years beyond that will take no more than cutting back on a few fringe guys who are overpaid (this year the Gomes, Renteria, Lewis and Burton quartet will make nearly the $6 Million difference). The Reds pipeline is pretty full and they should have no problem filling some specialized roles on the cheap. IMO, he'll leave because he sees the team passing instead of siezing the day to win a wide open NL Central and move the team forward from where they ended 2010. As the losses mount, the chances of keeping Votto around become reduced. When we kiss Joey goodbye, I think we should point to the inaction at the 2010 winter meetings as a primary reason.