PDA

View Full Version : Reds Rumor Central



Pages : 1 [2] 3 4

cinreds21
07-24-2011, 09:06 PM
And now this will start up:


**MLB TRADE RUMORS** Sources have confirmed the Mariners have started scouting the Yankees minor league team’s ( Montero is the target) – Also reports are they have high interest in (SS) Edwin Nunez.. Rumors are the Yankees have a slight interest in Bedard & Vargas but the Source also states the Yanks believe Felix Hernandez (King Felix) could become available if they part with 4 top prospects – This is starting to heat up… Stay Tuned!

757690
07-24-2011, 09:08 PM
B.J. Upton is the only MLB player whose batting average has gone down every year over the past five seasons. He's having a really bad year this year, with a .709 OPS.

With his defense, he's an improvement over what the Reds have, but I'm not sure he's a real difference maker the way he is playing now. I wouldn't give up too much for him.

Tom Servo
07-24-2011, 09:08 PM
It just wouldn't be the trade deadline without speculation an 'ace' going to New York, Philadelphia or Boston.

reds44
07-24-2011, 09:09 PM
I doubt the Rays do Upton and Shields, and I don't think I'd be interested in just Upton. Tons of upside, but he doesn't really improve LF right now.

As for the Yankees thing, as Steve Stone said today during the White Sox game, according to the media they're in on every player in baseball right now.

Sabo Fan
07-24-2011, 09:51 PM
B.J. Upton is the only MLB player whose batting average has gone down every year over the past five seasons. He's having a really bad year this year, with a .709 OPS.

With his defense, he's an improvement over what the Reds have, but I'm not sure he's a real difference maker the way he is playing now. I wouldn't give up too much for him.

I feel like there's a little bit of Brandon Phillips in B.J. Upton in the sense that he has all the talent in the world but maybe needs a change of scenery to really get things going. It seems to me that Upton is a bit immature in the same way that Phillips when he was coming up with the Indians and might benefit from a little veteran influence. I'm not big on the whole "veteran leadership" thing, but that Rays team has never really had a veteran presence to speak of, they're all young and talented but don't have a Scott Rolen or Barry Larkin-type guy to guide some of their younger players. I think a move here to Cincy would kickstart Upton not just by getting him out of the AL East, but also because he could learn a lot from the veterans on this club.

signalhome
07-24-2011, 09:56 PM
I doubt the Rays do Upton and Shields, and I don't think I'd be interested in just Upton. Tons of upside, but he doesn't really improve LF right now.

As for the Yankees thing, as Steve Stone said today during the White Sox game, according to the media they're in on every player in baseball right now.

Yeah, Upton's already-awful .318 wOBA is a lot worse for a LF than it is for a CF. No thanks. There's still some potential there, but I wouldn't be willing to pay what the Rays are likely asking.

reds44
07-24-2011, 10:09 PM
I feel like there's a little bit of Brandon Phillips in B.J. Upton in the sense that he has all the talent in the world but maybe needs a change of scenery to really get things going. It seems to me that Upton is a bit immature in the same way that Phillips when he was coming up with the Indians and might benefit from a little veteran influence. I'm not big on the whole "veteran leadership" thing, but that Rays team has never really had a veteran presence to speak of, they're all young and talented but don't have a Scott Rolen or Barry Larkin-type guy to guide some of their younger players. I think a move here to Cincy would kickstart Upton not just by getting him out of the AL East, but also because he could learn a lot from the veterans on this club.
I don't even disagree with this, but that's a chance for somebody else to take.

PuffyPig
07-24-2011, 10:11 PM
I feel like there's a little bit of Brandon Phillips in B.J. Upton in the sense that he has all the talent in the world but maybe needs a change of scenery to really get things going. It seems to me that Upton is a bit immature in the same way that Phillips when he was coming up with the Indians and might benefit from a little veteran influence. I'm not big on the whole "veteran leadership" thing, but that Rays team has never really had a veteran presence to speak of, they're all young and talented but don't have a Scott Rolen or Barry Larkin-type guy to guide some of their younger players. I think a move here to Cincy would kickstart Upton not just by getting him out of the AL East, but also because he could learn a lot from the veterans on this club.

You may well be correct, but when we got Phillips he was a low risk, high reward trade.

Upton will cost plenty in trade chips, and if he succeeds, he will cost plenty to keep as he's got a ton of service time already.

Benihana
07-24-2011, 10:20 PM
Rays now saying they won't trade Shields per MLBTR/Yahoo.

Well damn.

corkedbat
07-25-2011, 12:50 AM
Rays now saying they won't trade Shields per MLBTR/Yahoo.

Well damn.

Well, that makes sense. The more i thought about Shields, the more I wanted Walt to deal for him. i was even will to part with Grandal (but not Mes) and that's something I haven't felt to be a good idea. I probably sholda been bad-mouthing him, then we might have not only landed him, but gotten him dirt cheap. :(

757690
07-25-2011, 01:27 AM
Rays now saying they won't trade Shields per MLBTR/Yahoo.

Well damn.

Kinda like a vote of confidence for the manager from the owner. Sounds like they are trying to drive his price up.

Mario-Rijo
07-25-2011, 09:41 AM
You may well be correct, but when we got Phillips he was a low risk, high reward trade.

Upton will cost plenty in trade chips, and if he succeeds, he will cost plenty to keep as he's got a ton of service time already.

Reports are he wouldn't cost as much as Beltran or Pence, kinda hard to buy that though. The guy has stole 40 bases or more 3 years in a row and has 23 so far this season, walks quite a bit and has 15 jacks, darn near 60 rbi and he plays good defense. He's alot like Stubbs really but doesn't strike out quite as much. He might be a guy that would fit in better with us if he wouldn't take offense to playing LF. I'd trade Alonso+ for him in a heartbeat, heck I personally would even do Alonso & Grandal. I'd prefer Beltran because he can switch hit but Upton would help in the NL central I think and he is only owed a little over 2 million for the rest of the season. Heck Yonder is making 600K himself, err 300K for the remainder.

Benihana
07-25-2011, 11:11 AM
Alonso, Grandal, Boxberger, Sappelt/Heisey and any minor league pitcher they want for Shields and Upton.

I'd even add Wood or Volquez if it got the deal done. The worst thing the Reds could do is stand pat. I will be done with this regime if they do that. Make a bold move and trade for at least one of Shields/Jimenez/Upton/Pence/Beltran, or at least a guy like Kuroda. Or sell off unnecessary parts like Hernandez, Gomes, et al. and play for 2012 and 13. Either way, I am growing very tired of treading water. It's time to swim for the shore.

Patrick Bateman
07-25-2011, 11:47 AM
Alonso, Grandal, Boxberger, Sappelt/Heisey and any minor league pitcher they want for Shields and Upton.

I'd even add Wood or Volquez if it got the deal done. The worst thing the Reds could do is stand pat. I will be done with this regime if they do that. Make a bold move and trade for at least one of Shields/Jimenez/Upton/Pence/Beltran, or at least a guy like Kuroda. Or sell off unnecessary parts like Hernandez, Gomes, et al. and play for 2012 and 13. Either way, I am growing very tired of treading water. It's time to swim for the shore.

How is giving up good prospects for a rental like Beltran when we are trying to leapfrog 3 teams better than doing nothing?

The odds of Beltran being the difference this year is much lower than the odds of the young talent we trade (ie. Boxberger/Alonso) accumulating value in some way. Consdering he can't be offered arbitration, Beltran doesn't make a lot of sense for the Reds current position.

Any legit trade target needs to be part of a larger scale plan (future seasons, likely draft picks) to be in synergy with the Reds long term plans, unless the trade target is that of miniscule nature.

Benihana
07-25-2011, 12:20 PM
How is giving up good prospects for a rental like Beltran when we are trying to leapfrog 3 teams better than doing nothing?

The odds of Beltran being the difference this year is much lower than the odds of the young talent we trade (ie. Boxberger/Alonso) accumulating value in some way. Consdering he can't be offered arbitration, Beltran doesn't make a lot of sense for the Reds current position.

Any legit trade target needs to be part of a larger scale plan (future seasons, likely draft picks) to be in synergy with the Reds long term plans, unless the trade target is that of miniscule nature.

Because with Beltran I think this division is eminently winnable. However, without a TOR arm, this team is going nowhere in the playoffs.

Beltran is my least favorite of the above targets for the reasons you mention, however my frustration has led me to believe that SOMETHING must be done. I know Walt has his track record and all, but he has not done anything to significantly upgrade this team since the Rolen trade in July 2009. Sorry for the rant, but here goes:

Reasons why, barring a significant move in the next 7 days, I've lost faith in Walt
1. He (will have) sat on his hands this year (assuming no moves)
2. He sat on his hands this offseason when the rival Brewers went out and acquired not one, but TWO TOR arms, even going so far at the winter meetings to say "We've had zero discussions with any players or teams about anything." At the freaking winter meetings!!!
3. He sat on his hands at the trade deadline last year, when the entire world knew we needed a TOR arm to compete in the playoffs.
4. He gave an even-at-the-time awful extension to Bronson Arroyo
5. He waited two months too long to bring up Zack Cozart, a move that was so obvious your grandmother would have made it.
6. He has waited two months too long to bring up Alonso or Sappelt to give them a shot at a LF job that has been vacant for too long.
7. He signed (and has yet to release) Gomes and Renteria, knowing Dusty cannot be trusted to use them properly.
8. He traded for Wily Taveras, and waited way too long to release him and Corey Patterson.
9. He has had a bevvy of prospects to deal from and has not only done nothing with them, but has yet to settle on positions for key players (ie the whole 1B-3B-LF rotation between Frazier, Francisco, and Alonso).
10. They have mishandled the development of Aroldis Chapman, who will still not be ready to be a starter in 2012.
11. Did I mention he has sat on his hands for the last two years when the team was in prime position to be improved upon?

On the flip side, by my count, he has done exactly three good moves in the two years since the Rolen trade:
1. He extended Jay Bruce
2. He extended Johnny Cueto
3. He signed Aroldis Chapman
Bringing in Dontrelle Willis might turn out to be a 4th, but it's still a little early to tell for sure.

Literally, that's it. No more high profile international signings (Jurickson Profar would have been nice, although I realize singling him out is a bit unfair). No other extensions to note. OBVIOUSLY no key acquisitions. None. As I've said before, barring a significant move this week, I'm done with this regime.

reds44
07-25-2011, 12:50 PM
How is giving up good prospects for a rental like Beltran when we are trying to leapfrog 3 teams better than doing nothing?

The odds of Beltran being the difference this year is much lower than the odds of the young talent we trade (ie. Boxberger/Alonso) accumulating value in some way. Consdering he can't be offered arbitration, Beltran doesn't make a lot of sense for the Reds current position.

Any legit trade target needs to be part of a larger scale plan (future seasons, likely draft picks) to be in synergy with the Reds long term plans, unless the trade target is that of miniscule nature.
The Reds current position? We're three games out of first.

REDREAD
07-25-2011, 12:53 PM
How The odds of Beltran being the difference this year is much lower than the odds of the young talent we trade (ie. Boxberger/Alonso) accumulating value in some way. Consdering he can't be offered arbitration, Beltran doesn't make a lot of sense for the Reds current position.
.

Beltran only makes sense if we can get him for miscellaneous parts like Maloney, etc. I might give up Volquez for him.

I agree we don't want to give up a better prospect like Alonso for Beltran.

Walt has said that he's focusing on players that are under control for a few more years, so I really doubt we are even talking about Beltran now. Unless the Mets call Walt at the last minute of the deadline (because there's no other interest) and are willing to settle for scraps, that trade is not going to happen.

I know people are anxious for a big move, but guys like Shields and U Jimmeniz rarely get traded. That would be like someone asking us for Ceuto or Bruce.. Not likely the Reds would trade any of those guys. Teams are really hesitant to trade one of their best players who is under control for a few years.

reds44
07-25-2011, 01:02 PM
Reds are in on Upton.

Joelsherman1 Joel Sherman
#Phillies some interest in Upton, but heard most calls to #Rays are #Nationals #Braves #Pirates,#Reds #Cardinals (if trade Rasmus for P)

Benihana
07-25-2011, 01:04 PM
Beltran only makes sense if we can get him for miscellaneous parts like Maloney, etc. I might give up Volquez for him.

I agree we don't want to give up a better prospect like Alonso for Beltran.

Walt has said that he's focusing on players that are under control for a few more years, so I really doubt we are even talking about Beltran now. Unless the Mets call Walt at the last minute of the deadline (because there's no other interest) and are willing to settle for scraps, that trade is not going to happen.

I know people are anxious for a big move, but guys like Shields and U Jimmeniz rarely get traded. That would be like someone asking us for Ceuto or Bruce.. Not likely the Reds would trade any of those guys. Teams are really hesitant to trade one of their best players who is under control for a few years.

1. Wouldn't have to trade Alonso for Beltran. The Mets have Ike Davis. Might have to move Grandal though, that would be a hard pill to swallow. I'd much rather trade Volquez and spare parts. If they demanded much more, I'd move onto the non-rentals.

2. I'm sick of hearing those excuses. Greinke and Marcum both got traded in the offseason. Cliff Lee got traded from CLE to PHI the year before that. And Dan Haren the year before that.

reds44
07-25-2011, 01:05 PM
1. Wouldn't have to trade Alonso for Beltran. The Mets have Ike Davis. Might have to move Grandal though, that would be a hard pill to swallow. I'd much rather trade Volquez and spare parts. If they demanded much more, I'd move onto the non-rentals.

2. I'm sick of hearing those excuses. Greinke and Marcum both got traded in the offseason. Cliff Lee got traded from CLE to PHI the year before that.
And then got traded from Philly to Seattle and then Seattle to Texas lol

REDREAD
07-25-2011, 01:08 PM
7. He signed (and has yet to release) Gomes and Renteria, knowing Dusty cannot be trusted to use them properly.


Disagree with this. Renturia is a better player than Janish. Renturia has been used properly.. as a backup when Cozart is hurt. Now you have a solid point about waiting too long to call up Cozart. My guess is that they wanted to make sure Janish was a lost cause, because IIRC, he was going to be exposed to being lost if he was sent down. In the grand scheme of things, the team was floundering, they had time to give Janish another month to see if he would turn it around (even though it was a long shot).
Let's put it this way.. Even if Cozart made the team on opening day, the Reds would be in about the same position they are in now.

I guess I don't see the point in releasing Renturia and Gomes now. What would that solve.. We'd have to bring up Janish (who is worse).. Sappelt and Alonso might be worse than Gomes too.. We still have to pay Renturia and Gomes.. no point in releasing them until an upgrade is identified.




8. He traded for Wily Taveras, and waited way too long to release him and Corey Patterson.



Willy was a clear goof to sign as a FA. I don't think you can fault him for Patterson though. He inherited Patterson. The team had very little OF depth. Patterson got a lot of playing time at the end of that year simply due to injuries in the OF.



9. He has had a bevvy of prospects to deal from and has not only done nothing with them, but has yet to settle on positions for key players (ie the whole 1B-3B-LF rotation between Frazier, Francisco, and Alonso).


Walt is a slow and deliberate trader.. He's not like Wayne, who had to make a transaction every 2-3 weeks, regardless of whether it helped the team or not.
The payoff is that Walt has really not made a bad move other than WilyT.
We can complain about Gomes, but Gomes makes peanuts. Same with Renturia. There's been no Milton or Stanton signing which truly crippled the teasm.





10. They have mishandled the development of Aroldis Chapman, who will still not be ready to be a starter in 2012.


Disagree. Chapman is doing fine now. He had to be sent to AAA for a few weeks, but he's back on track now and contributing.



On the flip side, by my count, he has done exactly three good moves in the two years since the Rolen trade:
1. He extended Jay Bruce
2. He extended Johnny Cueto
3. He signed Aroldis Chapman
Bringing in Dontrelle Willis might turn out to be a 4th, but it's still a little early to tell for sure.


4. Rolen (we don't win the division last year without him)
5. Cairo
6. OCab last year
7. Arthur Rhodes.. made the right call signing him and letting him walk.
8. Extending Votto
9. Bringing back Ramon H.
10. Other than WilyT has not done anything stupid




. As I've said before, barring a significant move this week, I'm done with this regime.

This season has been disappointing, yet we have an excellent run differential and are only 3 games back. Probably won't win the divison, but we are in excellent position for next year. Walt has set us up for long term success.

Benihana
07-25-2011, 01:08 PM
Reds are in on Upton.

Joelsherman1 Joel Sherman
#Phillies some interest in Upton, but heard most calls to #Rays are #Nationals #Braves #Pirates,#Reds #Cardinals (if trade Rasmus for P)

What is the most you'd be willing to give up for Shields and Upton?

I'd do Grandal, Alonso, and any other 2 players currently in the minor leagues not named Mez. Might even give them 3. Would you?

REDREAD
07-25-2011, 01:15 PM
1. Wouldn't have to trade Alonso for Beltran. The Mets have Ike Davis. Might have to move Grandal though, that would be a hard pill to swallow. I'd much rather trade Volquez and spare parts. If they demanded much more, I'd move onto the non-rentals.

2. I'm sick of hearing those excuses. Greinke and Marcum both got traded in the offseason. Cliff Lee got traded from CLE to PHI the year before that. And Dan Haren the year before that.

Greinke would've probably cost Leake, Wood/Homer, and 2 other prospects.
Sure, Milwaukee got it done, but at a high cost. Grienke has a 4.84 ERA this year. Only 7 of 14 starts have been QS. He would not have helped.

Obviously, Marcum is doing great, so the Brewers are 1 for 2 on their big acquisions..

Benihana
07-25-2011, 01:17 PM
Disagree with this. Renturia is a better player than Janish. Renturia has been used properly.. as a backup when Cozart is hurt. Now you have a solid point about waiting too long to call up Cozart. My guess is that they wanted to make sure Janish was a lost cause, because IIRC, he was going to be exposed to being lost if he was sent down. In the grand scheme of things, the team was floundering, they had time to give Janish another month to see if he would turn it around (even though it was a long shot).
Let's put it this way.. Even if Cozart made the team on opening day, the Reds would be in about the same position they are in now.

Disagree. Cozart playing all year over Janish would be worth at least an extra win or two at this point.


I guess I don't see the point in releasing Renturia and Gomes now. What would that solve.. We'd have to bring up Janish (who is worse).. Sappelt and Alonso might be worse than Gomes too.. We still have to pay Renturia and Gomes.. no point in releasing them until an upgrade is identified.

If Sappelt and Alonso are/would be worse than Gomes, you TRADE them. That's what you and youre employees are paid to do- evaluate talent. The both clearly have trade value, so upgrade another position if they can't upgrade LF for you. It's not like they are 18 years old and way too early to make a call.


Willy was a clear goof to sign as a FA. I don't think you can fault him for Patterson though. He inherited Patterson. The team had very little OF depth. Patterson got a lot of playing time at the end of that year simply due to injuries in the OF.

He held onto Patterson for way too long, much like Janish/Gomes.


Walt is a slow and deliberate trader.. He's not like Wayne, who had to make a transaction every 2-3 weeks, regardless of whether it helped the team or not.
The payoff is that Walt has really not made a bad move other than WilyT.
We can complain about Gomes, but Gomes makes peanuts. Same with Renturia. There's been no Milton or Stanton signing which truly crippled the teasm.

He made about 100x more moves when he was with the Cardinals. Some might blame payroll, but if that's really the case we need to bring in a shrewder GM that can play with peanuts. You don't see a lack of moves by Andrew Friedman.



Disagree. Chapman is doing fine now. He had to be sent to AAA for a few weeks, but he's back on track now and contributing.

But he's still not a starter and probably won't be next year either.



4. Rolen (we don't win the division last year without him)
5. Cairo
I said in the last two years since the Rolen deal.

6. OCab last year
7. Arthur Rhodes.. made the right call signing him and letting him walk.
Both very debatable. Can't say either of these moves were terribly significant.

8. Extending Votto At best a neutral move. He locked in an MVP-rate without gaining any extra years. MLBTR had good perspective on this, how was this a big positive?

9. Bringing back Ramon H. This one I'll give you.

10. Other than WilyT has not done anything stupid Nor has he done anything great. You could install a corpse as GM and they would have net-net done about the same. Is that a good thing?



This season has been disappointing, yet we have an excellent run differential and are only 3 games back. Probably won't win the divison, but we are in excellent position for next year. Walt has set us up for long term success.

No, Walt inherited a team that was set up for long term success. He made two nice additions in Rolen and Chapman, but has done very little otherwise. There are still several redundant prospects that could be dealt for real help, and he missed out on several very important and game-changing acquisitions (ie Greinke, Lee, Marcum, Haren, etc.)

Benihana
07-25-2011, 01:24 PM
Greinke would've probably cost Leake, Wood/Homer, and 2 other prospects.
Sure, Milwaukee got it done, but at a high cost. Grienke has a 4.84 ERA this year. Only 7 of 14 starts have been QS. He would not have helped.

Obviously, Marcum is doing great, so the Brewers are 1 for 2 on their big acquisions..

Reds would win the division this year with Greinke, almost guaranteed. They'd also be a lot more competitive in the postseason, both this year and next.

Ditto for Marcum, who only cost one prospect and is signed cheaply this year and under team control for next.

Cliff Lee took the Rangers to the World Series last year.

I'll remind you that BP is a FA after next year and Joey Votto the following year. Both, along with Rolen, will likely be gone, and with that the Reds window to compete will likely be closed for a while. But hey, at least we'll have some pretty good minor leaguers!

Boss-Hog
07-25-2011, 01:25 PM
Let's keep this thread for its stated purpose, please. If you'd like yet another discussion on the pros and cons of the Jocketty regime, please use an existing thread on the topic or start a new one.

corkedbat
07-25-2011, 01:30 PM
Because with Beltran I think this division is eminently winnable. However, without a TOR arm, this team is going nowhere in the playoffs.

Beltran is my least favorite of the above targets for the reasons you mention, however my frustration has led me to believe that SOMETHING must be done. I know Walt has his track record and all, but he has not done anything to significantly upgrade this team since the Rolen trade in July 2009. Sorry for the rant, but here goes:

Reasons why, barring a significant move in the next 7 days, I've lost faith in Walt
1. He (will have) sat on his hands this year (assuming no moves)
2. He sat on his hands this offseason when the rival Brewers went out and acquired not one, but TWO TOR arms, even going so far at the winter meetings to say "We've had zero discussions with any players or teams about anything." At the freaking winter meetings!!!
3. He sat on his hands at the trade deadline last year, when the entire world knew we needed a TOR arm to compete in the playoffs.
4. He gave an even-at-the-time awful extension to Bronson Arroyo
5. He waited two months too long to bring up Zack Cozart, a move that was so obvious your grandmother would have made it.
6. He has waited two months too long to bring up Alonso or Sappelt to give them a shot at a LF job that has been vacant for too long.
7. He signed (and has yet to release) Gomes and Renteria, knowing Dusty cannot be trusted to use them properly.
8. He traded for Wily Taveras, and waited way too long to release him and Corey Patterson.
9. He has had a bevvy of prospects to deal from and has not only done nothing with them, but has yet to settle on positions for key players (ie the whole 1B-3B-LF rotation between Frazier, Francisco, and Alonso).
10. They have mishandled the development of Aroldis Chapman, who will still not be ready to be a starter in 2012.
11. Did I mention he has sat on his hands for the last two years when the team was in prime position to be improved upon?

On the flip side, by my count, he has done exactly three good moves in the two years since the Rolen trade:
1. He extended Jay Bruce
2. He extended Johnny Cueto
3. He signed Aroldis Chapman
Bringing in Dontrelle Willis might turn out to be a 4th, but it's still a little early to tell for sure.

Literally, that's it. No more high profile international signings (Jurickson Profar would have been nice, although I realize singling him out is a bit unfair). No other extensions to note. OBVIOUSLY no key acquisitions. None. As I've said before, barring a significant move this week, I'm done with this regime.

When Walt first took over for Krivsky, I said that he would make a big, signature deal (or deals( that would stampthis franchise as his...I'm still waiting, but I no longer expect it to happen. This club could really use it though.

Beltran to me is the kind of move you make when the division is already in hand, you want to reach for more and he's the last missing piece to the puzzle. I don't see those conditions exsisting for the Reds at the present time. Since they don't, then spending time and resources on a high-profile rental when there are multiple holes to fill seems like a monumental waste.

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2011, 01:53 PM
From MLB Trade Rumors via Jayson Stark:

•One executive Stark spoke to wouldn't be surprised to see a dark horse like the Reds or Brewers make a late run at Mets right fielder Carlos Beltran.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/stark-on-bell-beltran-rays-giants.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

mattfeet
07-25-2011, 01:58 PM
I can tell ya right now Id be a little peeved if Milwaukee swept in and got Beltran.

-Matt

mdccclxix
07-25-2011, 02:00 PM
Walt Jocketty as... "DARK HORSE" This Summer!

Scrap Irony
07-25-2011, 02:02 PM
A Carlos Beltran deal is right up Jocketty's alley, IMO.

Then again, so is an Ubaldo Jimenez deal.

And the James Shields deal would also be a Jocketty type move.


I suspect they'll get one of them, I hope they get two, and the fan in me wants to see him get all three.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 02:05 PM
I don't think Beltran is very likely, but I'm dearly hoping for an Upton/Ubaldo set of trades since Shields appears to be out of the mix.

Caveat Emperor
07-25-2011, 02:08 PM
If the Reds are going to part with quality talent, it had better bring back someone that helps the team into 2012 and beyond.

The 2011 Reds + Beltran are still, at best, a first-round exit in the post-season.

757690
07-25-2011, 02:10 PM
If this is what the Rays want for Upton, it's a definite pass for me.

https://twitter.com/#!/jcrasnick/status/95532760776712192


#Rays would want a pitcher from the Teheran-Minor-Delgado-Vizcaino group in a deal with ATL. #Braves not likely to go for that. #trades

757690
07-25-2011, 02:14 PM
I hope Walt is waiting for the Mets to lower their asking price for Beltran. Right now, it's kinda silly.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/carlos-beltran-rumors-saturday.html


Mike Minor (Braves), Domonic Brown (Phillies), Gary Brown, Zach Wheeler, and Brandon Belt (all Giants)

mdccclxix
07-25-2011, 02:15 PM
If the Reds are going to part with quality talent, it had better bring back someone that helps the team into 2012 and beyond.

The 2011 Reds + Beltran are still, at best, a first-round exit in the post-season.

If Beltran can be the healthy Rolen of last year, or even more, to the 4th hole, I'd think we'd have a better shot than last year's play off team. So "at best" is too strong a statement, IMO. Beltran would create a lot of lineup stability for the Reds. Assuming they make the playoffs, I think it would be due in large part to an improved offense.

Superdude
07-25-2011, 02:20 PM
Upton's numbers are pretty bad. Why do we want this guy?

Brutus
07-25-2011, 02:31 PM
Upton's numbers are pretty bad. Why do we want this guy?

He's averaged nearly four wins above replacement the last four seasons and while he's having a bit of a down year, he's still on pace for close to three wins this year. Adding in the fact he plays half his games in a pitcher's park (second worst run-scoring park factor in the league), I think Upton actually would be a valuable addition. In fact, his OPS adjusted for park and league is actually above average.

I would obviously, like everyone, love to have Beltran. But in the event that's unlikely, Upton would still be a nice consolation prize IMHO.

fearofpopvol1
07-25-2011, 02:34 PM
During the game last night, I forget who said it, but they said to land Beltran, the Mets would likely ask for a top pitching prospect like a Tehran from the Braves. Think they'd accept Boxberger? I'd do that. But I don't think they mean a reliever!

mdccclxix
07-25-2011, 02:34 PM
Upton's numbers are pretty bad. Why do we want this guy?

Reds fans would hate watching this guy in LF, I'm pretty certain.

Playadlc
07-25-2011, 02:36 PM
I still think Upton has time to get his stuff together. Wouldn't shock me if he broke out in a major way next year.

BJ, Stubbs and Bruce...I could get on board with that.

mace
07-25-2011, 02:48 PM
I'm still surprised that David Wright's name is never mentioned. He returned to the lineup over the weekend and went 6-14 with a HR. I haven't seen that the Mets are willing to move him, but they were considering trading Reyes. And now that they've decided to keep Reyes, I'd suspect that Wright would be grudgingly available. Wright will make $15 million next year and 16 in 2013 on a team option, with a $1 million buyout.

He would fit in many ways. He's a right-handed cleanup hitter who still hits RHP well (.850 career OPS). Rolen is hurt and hasn't been effective when he's been in the lineup. The key would be whether Wright would be willing/able to play LF when/if Rolen gets back to form. For all I know, LF may actually be easier on his back than 3B.

I can't speculate on his asking price, but if the Reds are/were considering Reyes, Jimenez and Shields . . .

Benihana
07-25-2011, 02:49 PM
During the game last night, I forget who said it, but they said to land Beltran, the Mets would likely ask for a top pitching prospect like a Tehran from the Braves. Think they'd accept Boxberger? I'd do that. But I don't think they mean a reliever!

Julio Tehran : Brad Boxberger
Jay Bruce : Dave Sappelt

I think the Reds offer for Beltran should be Volquez + a lesser prospect or two. Volquez + Boxberger would be about as high as I'd go before turning my attention to a mega-blockbuster involving Shields + Upton or a lesser blockbuster for Jimenez.

Will M
07-25-2011, 02:54 PM
Reds acquire Jiminez for Stubbs & others. Then they acquire Upton to play CF. I suspect they don't trusy Heisey or Sappelt to be good enough defensively in CF. Plus they might buy low on Upton.

Upton in CF if trading Stubbs gets us an ace. I'm ok with that.
Upton for LF. not sure thats what we need.

I(heart)Freel
07-25-2011, 02:54 PM
I know this is the rumors thread, and I apologize if it's out of place.

But I'm wondering... which of the names we're hearing do you think could clear waivers next week? Maybe Walt is focusing on the ones who can't, and then can turn attention to the ones who could later as Plan B?

Just wondering if you guys thought there were certain names that would make it through?

Seems an odd year for the trade deadline. No big fish at all, really. No first domino to start everything moving and set the market.

Caveat Emperor
07-25-2011, 03:08 PM
Seems an odd year for the trade deadline. No big fish at all, really. No first domino to start everything moving and set the market.

Lots of teams in contention, and a small group of sellers trying to start bidding wars with top-quality minor leaguers involved.

Teams under pressure to move payroll (looking your way, Tampa), or under pressure to restock the farm (looking your way New York Mets and Oakland Athletics) will buckle first -- and once someone gets left out, you could see the inbetweens ('sup Colorado) be blown away by an offer to move a player they weren't 100% certain on moving before it all started.

Benihana
07-25-2011, 03:08 PM
MLBTR/Jon Paul Morosi now saying 50/50 chance Jimenez will be traded. Significantly higher chance than anyone previously thought. Get it Walt.

Playadlc
07-25-2011, 03:15 PM
MLBTR/Jon Paul Morosi now saying 50/50 chance Jimenez will be traded. Significantly higher chance than anyone previously thought. Get it Walt.

They will be shooting for the moon. I don't see us landing Ubaldo (even with his pedestrian #'s this season) without giving up a player like Mes or Chapman.

Speaking of which, I wonder how many teams are asking us about Chapman.

signalhome
07-25-2011, 03:18 PM
He's averaged nearly four wins above replacement the last four seasons and while he's having a bit of a down year, he's still on pace for close to three wins this year. Adding in the fact he plays half his games in a pitcher's park (second worst run-scoring park factor in the league), I think Upton actually would be a valuable addition. In fact, his OPS adjusted for park and league is actually above average.

I would obviously, like everyone, love to have Beltran. But in the event that's unlikely, Upton would still be a nice consolation prize IMHO.

Yeah, I like Upton as a CF. I'm just not sure his WAR would be that high if he were in LF, which is where he would likely be playing (though I guess the Reds could put Stubbs there). However, if Stubbs were to be shipped off for another player (Jimenez?), I'd love to bring in Upton. Losing Stubbs but adding Jimenez and Upton would be a pretty significant improvement if you ask me.

aubashbrother
07-25-2011, 03:19 PM
Someone over at MLB Trade Rumors in the comments said they just heard that something was brewing between the Reds and Rays from Mike Francesa of WFAN. Take it for whats its worth. Prolly nothing to it but just passing it along

Benihana
07-25-2011, 03:25 PM
The Rays just make so much sense as a trading partner as they are one of the only teams with gaping holes at C and 1B (for Grandal and Alonso).

klw
07-25-2011, 03:29 PM
From MLB Trade Rumors via Jayson Stark:

•One executive Stark spoke to wouldn't be surprised to see a dark horse like the Reds or Brewers make a late run at Mets right fielder Carlos Beltran.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/stark-on-bell-beltran-rays-giants.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

My gut for a while has been telling me that the Brewers will end up with Coco Crisp. I have not found a link to my gut anywhere other than this satisfying bag of Chex mix in my desk.

Caveat Emperor
07-25-2011, 03:33 PM
Someone over at MLB Trade Rumors in the comments said they just heard that something was brewing between the Reds and Rays from Mike Francesa of WFAN. Take it for whats its worth. Prolly nothing to it but just passing it along

With the market as jammed as it is right now, if the Reds are the first team out of the gate with a big deal for one of the major talents on the market (Shields and Jimenez type), I think we had better be prepared to accept the fact that the Reds overpaid to get something done.

Think Alonso, Grandal AND Mesoraco...

Brutus
07-25-2011, 03:36 PM
MLBTR/Jon Paul Morosi now saying 50/50 chance Jimenez will be traded. Significantly higher chance than anyone previously thought. Get it Walt.

Perhaps this is a direct indication that a certain team has made an offer that has tempted the Rockies enough to trade him

:D

I say this jokingly, but we know the Rockies have no urgency to move him. They have no reason to do so unless they're given a good offer. So if the odds have increased that they might trade him, I imagine it's because someone has made an offer they're considering.

aubashbrother
07-25-2011, 03:37 PM
http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal/status/95576373237784576


Reds are getting calls on Edinson Volquez .... interesting

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 03:38 PM
I wonder if the Reds have an offer on the table for UJ as we speak? Might not be a good one for the Rocks, but I just wonder if an offer has been made.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 03:38 PM
http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal/status/95576373237784576


Reds are getting calls on Edinson Volquez .... interesting

Gotta figure if the Reds get an arm, EV is going the other way in some form.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 03:38 PM
With the market as jammed as it is right now, if the Reds are the first team out of the gate with a big deal for one of the major talents on the market (Shields and Jimenez type), I think we had better be prepared to accept the fact that the Reds overpaid to get something done.

Think Alonso, Grandal AND Mesoraco...

I disagree. No one ever loses that many top prospects in one trade. I realize this will be slightly different from the standpoint that Shields or Jiminez are signed for a couple more years, but nonetheless, while I agree the Reds would have to give up top prospect(s), it won't be anything like this.

Benihana
07-25-2011, 03:40 PM
With the market as jammed as it is right now, if the Reds are the first team out of the gate with a big deal for one of the major talents on the market (Shields and Jimenez type), I think we had better be prepared to accept the fact that the Reds overpaid to get something done.

Think Alonso, Grandal AND Mesoraco...

Why would a team trade for Grandal and Mesoraco? Why would the Reds do it? That's simply not going to happen. I'll guarantee it.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 03:41 PM
Why would a team trade for Grandal and Mesoraco? That's simply not going to happen. I'll guarantee it.

For the same reason a team would draft both?

Brutus
07-25-2011, 03:43 PM
For the same reason a team would draft both?

I don't think it's the same logic. When you draft a player, they're typically 3-5 years from being on a 40-man roster... that's early in the development. Usually you don't draft on need as much as B.P.A.

By the time you acquire prospects that have been a professional a couple years (though I realize Grandal doesn't fit that bill), they're more established and you know a little more about what you're getting. Typically teams will try harder to address a need or think about what they're grooming a player.

I find it highly unlikely a team would take two highly-touted catching prospects in the same trade.

bucksfan2
07-25-2011, 03:45 PM
I disagree. No one ever loses that many top prospects in one trade. I realize this will be slightly different from the standpoint that Shields or Jiminez are signed for a couple more years, but nonetheless, while I agree the Reds would have to give up top prospect(s), it won't be anything like this.

Thinking back to the blockbuster deals of the past few years, has there even been a huge haul? Guys like Santana, Lee, Lee, Lee, CC, etc. all have fetched nice deals but they haven't been huge, Colon for Lee, Phillips, and Sizemore type deals. Any deal for Jimenez will in all likelihood require at least one MLB ready pitcher.

CTA513
07-25-2011, 03:46 PM
http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal/status/95576373237784576


Reds are getting calls on Edinson Volquez .... interesting

Maybe its the Rangers really wanting him back and are willing to give up both Hamilton and Young?

;)

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 03:46 PM
I don't think it's the same logic. When you draft a player, they're typically 3-5 years from being on a 40-man roster... that's early in the development. Usually you don't draft on need as much as B.P.A.

By the time you acquire prospects that have been a professional a couple years (though I realize Grandal doesn't fit that bill), they're more established and you know a little more about what you're getting. Typically teams will try harder to address a need or think about what they're grooming a player.

I find it highly unlikely a team would take two highly-touted catching prospects in the same trade.

Its unlikely, but the is rational for doing it is there. Especially when odds are only 1 of them will pan out longterm (they're prospects remember).

reds44
07-25-2011, 03:50 PM
What about Volquez and a prospect like Francisco for Upton?

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 03:51 PM
What about Volquez and a prospect like Francisco for Upton?

You have to ask yourself is there any Cincinnnati fan that would not do that deal? And is there any Tampa fan who would do that deal?

reds44
07-25-2011, 03:53 PM
You have to ask yourself is there any Cincinnnati fan that would not do that deal? And is there any Tampa fan who would do that deal?
I don't know. I don't know how highly Rays fans value Upton. Volquez and Upton are both under achievers with a lot of talent.

reds1869
07-25-2011, 03:56 PM
You have to ask yourself is there any Cincinnnati fan that would not do that deal? And is there any Tampa fan who would do that deal?

I think Reds fans would love it and Rays fans would hate it. But whether or not fans would approve is irrelevant. Tampa might be quick to jump on that deal as they would really like to unload Upton's salary and get something in return. The big issue is that Francisco would be a DH for life as Longoria isn't going anywhere. Problems aside, that is exactly the kind of deal that has let the Rays stay competitive in the AL East.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 03:57 PM
I think Reds fans would love it and Rays fans would hate it. But whether or not fans would approve is irrelevant. Tampa might be quick to jump on that deal as they would really like to unload Upton's salary and get something in return. The big issue is that Francisco would be a DH for life as Longoria isn't going anywhere. Problems aside, that is exactly the kind of deal that has let the Rays stay competitive in the AL East.

I know fans don't matter, but Tampa fans are smart enough to realize that ain't enough for Upton.

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2011, 03:59 PM
From Jon Morosi:

#Reds are still involved in Ubaldo talks, source says. But I don’t know if we can call any team a favorite at this point. #Rockies

http://twitter.com/jonmorosi

Benihana
07-25-2011, 04:02 PM
What about Volquez and a prospect like Francisco for Upton?

I think Volquez and Alonso is a more likely price for Upton. I'd expand it by adding Grandal and 2-3 other prospects to include Shields.

Dan
07-25-2011, 04:04 PM
So who will it be? JU or UJ? Or maybe Hak-Ju gets thrown in somewhere.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 04:05 PM
I can't help but find it backward that this year is the year you here the Reds name flying all over the place with rumors, yet last year, it was pretty quiet (granted the attempt at Lee).

reds44
07-25-2011, 04:07 PM
I can't help but find it backward that this year is the year you here the Reds name flying all over the place with rumors, yet last year, it was pretty quiet (granted the attempt at Lee).
Why is that? The Reds didn't need to make a move last year, this year they do.

Caveat Emperor
07-25-2011, 04:08 PM
I can't help but find it backward that this year is the year you here the Reds name flying all over the place with rumors, yet last year, it was pretty quiet (granted the attempt at Lee).

It's probably calculated -- if the Reds let it be known they're in on a lot of deals, it might (theoretically) push someone who covets a couple Reds prospects to back off an unrealistic demand to get a deal done before someone else does the same. Holding out for Mesoraco or Bailey is all well and good, but if you'd be happy, deep down, with just Alonso and Grandal, you don't want to be caught asleep at the wheel when someone else snags them on a different deal.

Lots of the time, it's good to hold your cards close. This ain't one of them, I think.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 04:09 PM
Why is that? The Reds didn't need to make a move last year, this year they do.

No move needed last year? Gotta disagree there.

I(heart)Freel
07-25-2011, 04:22 PM
Yonder's value is significantly higher this year. Being that he's the main trade chip and the Reds didn't have pitching depth last year, I think that could be why.

Also think the Reds looked at the landscape and said it's Lee or nothing last year. No one else significantly moved the needle, to justify the risks.

corkedbat
07-25-2011, 04:26 PM
I can't help but find it backward that this year is the year you here the Reds name flying all over the place with rumors, yet last year, it was pretty quiet (granted the attempt at Lee).

Abd, the sad irony is that the results will most likely be identical.

reds44
07-25-2011, 04:37 PM
No move needed last year? Gotta disagree there.
They cruised into the playoffs and their lack of success in the playoffs had very little to do with not acquiring any help. Even if they acquire Cliff Lee, it's not like he would have beat Halladay in game one unless he threw a shutout as well. Game 2 was a game they should have one and if that happens who knows what happens the rest of the series.

reds44
07-25-2011, 04:38 PM
Abd, the sad irony is that the results will most likely be identical.
Identical that they won't acquire anyone or identical that they'll make the playoffs? If it's the second, I'll be a happy camper.

PuffyPig
07-25-2011, 04:54 PM
Think Alonso, Grandal AND Mesoraco...

Zero chance both go in the same deal.

Proably zero chance they both get traded.

I'd suggest probably only 10% chance Mess is traded in any deal.

Grandal is an excellent catching prospect himself.

IslandRed
07-25-2011, 04:55 PM
Reds are getting calls on Edinson Volquez .... interesting

Even if it's not as the centerpiece of a deal, there figure to be teams willing to take a chance on fixing a guy with that kind of stuff.


I don't know. I don't know how highly Rays fans value Upton. Volquez and Upton are both under achievers with a lot of talent.

The Rays fans I know -- yes, they exist, they just tend to watch games on TV instead of crossing the bay to the dimly-lit mausoleum -- are kind of tired of him, to be truthful.

I agree with signalhome's point from earlier in the thread -- I don't know if he's worth giving up much to acquire if he's going to end up in LF here.

Far East
07-25-2011, 04:59 PM
If all else is kinda' equal among the available OFers, I'd like to see the switch-hitting Beltran between Votto and Bruce.

mdccclxix
07-25-2011, 05:00 PM
If all else is kinda' equal among the available OFers, I'd like to see the switch-hitting Beltran between Votto and Bruce.

Yes, yes, yes, 100%

REDREAD
07-25-2011, 05:08 PM
Did not see Boss' post until now.. Walt discussion deleted. sorry

TRF
07-25-2011, 05:08 PM
The difference between Stubbs and Upton seems to be pretty minimal. a couple of doubles and triples and a handful of singles.

Essentially, he's Drew Stubbs, albeit with 6 years experience. I'm not sure the parks in the NL Central are smaller than the parks in the AL east, but he does have an odd split. He's AWFUL at home, and very good on the road. at least this year.

I'd prefer Pence, but Upton isn't a bad choice.

Plus Plus
07-25-2011, 05:10 PM
Rockies can't take 3-4 Boston A prospects for Jiminez, and Reds won't do primers Mesoraco& 2B Billy Hamilton(74 SB, A) and 2 others. Now

http://twitter.com/#!/pgammo/status/95599820189876225

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 05:13 PM
http://twitter.com/#!/pgammo/status/95599820189876225

Mes/BH/2 throw-ins for Ubaldo? That's tempting.

Plus Plus
07-25-2011, 05:14 PM
The wording makes me think that it is more likely Mes, Hamilton, and 2 other Reds top-10 guys.

TRF
07-25-2011, 05:16 PM
Mes/BH/2 throw-ins for Ubaldo? That's tempting.

for the Rockies. for the Reds its folly. Grandal isn't close to Mes in talent.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 05:16 PM
The wording makes me think that it is more likely Mes, Hamilton, and 2 other Reds top-10 guys.

Yeah, hard to say without knowing specifics. But if Mes and Billy are the 2 big pieces, my ears would perk up at least.

Superdude
07-25-2011, 05:17 PM
http://twitter.com/#!/pgammo/status/95599820189876225

Mesoraco's killing Walt's negotiating power. We need to hide that guy for a few days and maybe people will forget about him.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 05:21 PM
Just remember, Mes is a prospect. What do you think the odds of him panning out are? He is not a sure thing.

There's a reason why Jimenez was on fangraphs top 50 trade value list, and an editor thinking Mes was in the top-50 would have been laughed out of the room. Bird in the hand...

Don't get me wrong, Mes is almost as good a prospect as you get, but many never pan out.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 05:22 PM
The wording makes me think that it is more likely Mes, Hamilton, and 2 other Reds top-10 guys.

I think it's the opposite. He said "primers" to describe Mesoraco and Hamilton and then said 2 others.

To me, that implies separating them into two groups: two specific primers and two additional non-primers.

Benihana
07-25-2011, 05:24 PM
A package with Billy Hamilton as the centerpiece would be a dream for the Reds.
Hamilton and any 3 minor leaguers not named Devin for Jimenez. DEAL!

Mesoraco is another story. I would trade him straight up for Jimenez, but not with three additional players.

I thought the Rockies would want some of our arms (Wood, Bailey, Volquez et al)?

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 05:25 PM
So, if it was Mes for UJ straight up, who would pass?

Not me, I'd drive Mes to the airport. :lol:

RANDY IN INDY
07-25-2011, 05:27 PM
Don't trade Mesoraco.

757690
07-25-2011, 05:28 PM
Just remember, Mes is a prospect. What do you think the odds of him panning out are? He is not a sure thing.

There's a reason why Jimenez was on fangraphs top 50 trade value list, and an editor thinking Mes was in the top-50 would have been laughed out of the room. Bird in the hand...

Don't get me wrong, Mes is almost as good a prospect as you get, but many never pan out.

History tells us that Mes has around a 90% chance of being a regular for years.

The only question is how good will he be.

Jimenez isn't even worth Mes straight up, imo. There are around 4 times as many pitchers as good as Jimemez in the majors as there are starting catchers who can consistently OPS at least .750 for multiple season.

757690
07-25-2011, 05:29 PM
So, if it was Mes for UJ straight up, who would pass?

Not me, I'd drive Mes to the airport. :lol:

I'd pour sugar in your gas tank first. :D

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 05:29 PM
History tells us that Mes has around a 90% chance of being a regular for years.

The only question is how good will he be.

Jimenez isn't even worth Mes straight up, imo. There are around 4 times as many pitchers as good as Jimemez in the majors as there are starting catchers who can consistently OPS at least .750 for multiple season.

How did you come to that number?

TRF
07-25-2011, 05:30 PM
Can Jimenez hit?

Cueto in July 2.30 ERA
Bailey 3.42 ERA
Willis 3.71 ERA
Leake 5.19 ERA scuffling
Arroyo 7.77 ERA and untradeable.

So, maybe the Reds replace Leake with Jimenez... and lose a bunch of games 2-0.

757690
07-25-2011, 05:38 PM
How did you come to that number?

Percentage of hitting prospects over time ranked as high as Mes who have become regulars. Not all of them stars, but guys who got regular playing time for a few years. There's only around ten in the past ten years who didn't. And most of them where not sluggers, but the five tool guys.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 05:42 PM
Percentage of hitting prospects over time ranked as high as Mes who have become regulars. Not all of them stars, but guys who got regular playing time for a few years. There's only around ten in the past ten years who didn't. And most of them where not sluggers, but the five tool guys.

So Mes is ranked 15th right, so if I go back 10 years, I wouldn't find 10 guys ranked 15th or better that didn't become a regular? I'd start with Jeremy Hermedia...4th best prospect in baseball at one time...does he qualify as a regular to you? If so, then our baselines are off.

Still, 90 percent seems really high...many guys are top 15 prospects for multiple seasons...still don't see where 90 percent comes from.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 05:44 PM
History tells us that Mes has around a 90% chance of being a regular for years.

The only question is how good will he be.

Jimenez isn't even worth Mes straight up, imo. There are around 4 times as many pitchers as good as Jimemez in the majors as there are starting catchers who can consistently OPS at least .750 for multiple season.

I don't think history is nearly as kind as you're making it out to be. That seems like a great exaggeration.

I think it's more like a 50/50 proposition.

Patrick Bateman
07-25-2011, 05:44 PM
So Mes is ranked 15th right, so if I go back 10 years, I wouldn't find 10 guys ranked 15th or better that didn't become a regular? I'd start with Jeremy Hermedia...4th best prospect in baseball at one time...does he qualify as a regular to you? If so, then our baselines are off.

Still, 90 percent seems really high...many guys are top 15 prospects for multiple seasons...still don't see where 90 percent comes from.

He was a regular for about 4 years.........

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 05:45 PM
He was a regular for about 4 years.........

Well if we aren't trading Mes for Ubaldo because Mes could be Hermeda-ish, I'm at a loss. Surely you set the bar higher for him if you won't give him up for Ubaldo.

Patrick Bateman
07-25-2011, 05:46 PM
I don't think history is nearly as kind as you're making it out to be. That seems like a great exaggeration.

I think it's more like a 50/50 proposition.

Really?

Back to just Mes. How many catchers post his offensive numbers in AAA at his age and don't succeed? Finding a sample size of players is tough because there are so few guys that have done what he's done.

I think his odds are quite a bit better just based on that. When was the last great Reds prospect who didn't make it? Lately they all are, even guys like Bailey and Stubbs who most of Redszone was down on.

Patrick Bateman
07-25-2011, 05:48 PM
Well if we aren't trading Mes for Ubaldo because Mes could be Hermeda-ish, I'm at a loss. Surely you set the bar higher for him if you won't give him up for Ubaldo.

I was just suggesting that Hermida was a regular.
Hermida would be on the lower bar of that list. The norm is likely quite a bit higher.

You perhaps don't make the trade because that is more or less near the bottom of likely outcomes. He's much likely to be better than that.

thatcoolguy_22
07-25-2011, 05:48 PM
What if Chapman was subbed in for Mes? Who has more value?

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2011, 05:48 PM
I want Ubaldo Jimenez but not at the expense of Devin Mesoraco. Anyone else in the minors is fair game though. Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Billy Hamilton, and another prospect might work.

757690
07-25-2011, 05:49 PM
Well if we aren't trading Mes for Ubaldo because Mes could be Hermeda-ish, I'm at a loss. Surely you set the bar higher for him if you won't give him up for Ubaldo.

What about 4 years of Hermedia as the Reds regular catcher? Same offense, but with at least league average defense behind the plate?

Catchers are the hardest position to develop. Catchers that can hit, nearly impossible. That's why Mes is untouchable.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 05:49 PM
Really?

Back to just Mes. How many catchers post his offensive numbers in AAA at his age and don't succeed? Finding a sample size of players is tough because there are so few guys that have done what he's done.

I think his odds are quite a bit better just based on that. When was the last great Reds prospect who didn't make it? Lately they all are, even guys like Bailey and Stubbs who most of Redszone was down on.

Wieters was the number-one prospect in all the land. Yet he sits with a 2.6 WAR this year (easily his best year), having played the vast majority of games. Even I knew for sure that Mes would match Wieters numbers, I'd ship him out for Ubaldo. Are we projecting Mes to be better than Wieters...I don't know. Guess what, Hernanigan is out WARing the Orioles catching core this season.

757690
07-25-2011, 05:51 PM
Wieters was the number-one prospect in all the land. Yet he sits with a 2.6 WAR this year (easily his best year), having played the vast majority of games. Even I knew for sure that Mes would match Wieters numbers, I'd ship him out for Ubaldo. Are we projecting Mes to be better than Wieters...I don't know. Guess what, Hernanigan is out WARing the Orioles catching core this season.

A 4 win catcher is pretty hard to come by. Much harder than a pitcher like Jimenez.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 05:51 PM
Really?

Back to just Mes. How many catchers post his offensive numbers in AAA at his age and don't succeed? Finding a sample size of players is tough because there are so few guys that have done what he's done.

I think his odds are quite a bit better just based on that. When was the last great Reds prospect who didn't make it? Lately they all are, even guys like Bailey and Stubbs who most of Redszone was down on.

One doesn't need to go back very far in time to remember how Austin Kearns had a short shelf-life. John Oliver. Chris Gruler. Jeremy Sowers. Ty Howington. David Espinosa. Brandon Larson. C.J. Nitkowski. Chad Mottola. Ryan Wagner. These are all first-round guys in the last 20 years that were complete busts or never lived up to being "regulars" in the majors. Kearns was a "regular" for a while, but surely not the type of player you're unwilling to trade for someone like Ubaldo.

Historically, Reds' first-rounders don't even have much better than 50% chance of being a "regular." Nevermind the fact that being a regular and being an all-star caliber player are two different things.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 05:53 PM
A 4 win catcher is pretty hard to come by. Much harder than a pitcher like Jimenez.

When Wieters completes a 4 win season, that point is allowed in the debate. But that is an "on pace" number...hasn't happened yet. And if you are so inclined, remember our tandem is outpacing that 4-win catcher...not like they are taking up an extra roster spot.

jojo
07-25-2011, 05:54 PM
A 4 win catcher is pretty hard to come by. Much harder than a pitcher like Jimenez.

Exactly. Jimenez had better guarantee a very deep run in the playoffs......

mth123
07-25-2011, 05:54 PM
So, if it was Mes for UJ straight up, who would pass?

Not me, I'd drive Mes to the airport. :lol:

I'd pass.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 05:55 PM
What about 4 years of Hermedia as the Reds regular catcher? Same offense, but with at least league average defense behind the plate?

Catchers are the hardest position to develop. Catchers that can hit, nearly impossible. That's why Mes is untouchable.

If you would be so kind, will you define for me your expectation of "regular."

Don't specify it by position. Just tell me your expectation for "regular" that would preclude such a prospect at a position of scarcity when then be off-limits in such a trade.

Define regular, and I'll do the research according to Baseball America's top-20 prospect rankings. We'll see the odds of becoming a "regular."

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 05:56 PM
4 win catchers...essentially we are talking Joe Mauer,Brian McGann,and Victor Martinez who do it more than once. So...what are the odds Mes ends up in that group?

TRF
07-25-2011, 05:56 PM
Exactly. Jimenez had better guarantee a very deep run in the playoffs......

2010 Reds pitching in the post season. Take out Volquez and Masset and its dominant. leave them in and it was still damn good.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/pitching/_/name/cin/year/2010/seasontype/3/cat/gamesStarted/order/true/split/22/cincinnati-reds

Hitting please.

jojo
07-25-2011, 05:56 PM
When Wieters completes a 4 win season, that point is allowed in the debate. But that is an "on pace" number...hasn't happened yet. And if you are so inclined, remember our tandem is outpacing that 4-win catcher...not like they are taking up an extra roster spot.

Buster Posey might disagree.

757690
07-25-2011, 05:57 PM
One doesn't need to go back very far in time to remember how Austin Kearns had a short shelf-life. John Oliver. Chris Gruler. Jeremy Sowers. Ty Howington. David Espinosa. Brandon Larson. C.J. Nitkowski. Chad Mottola. Ryan Wagner. These are all first-round guys in the last 20 years that were complete busts or never lived up to being "regulars" in the majors. Kearns was a "regular" for a while, but surely not the type of player you're unwilling to trade for someone like Ubaldo.

Historically, Reds' first-rounders don't even have much better than 50% chance of being a "regular." Nevermind the fact that being a regular and being an all-star caliber player are two different things.

I'm not talking about #1 picks. I'm talking about top 15 prospects in all of baseball who are currently at AAA.

Plus, All those guys were drafted close to 10 years ago, under a completely different regime. There was a long period when Rays prospects were all duds.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 06:00 PM
Buster Posey might disagree.

Posey's turning into a superstar, tremendous player. I don't want to put all my eggs in the "Mes is gonna be a superstar basket". I'm not advocating we trade Mes either...but if needed, he is expendable to me.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 06:00 PM
I'm not talking about #1 picks. I'm talking about top 15 prospects in all of baseball who are currently at AAA.

Plus, All those guys were drafted close to 10 years ago, under a completely different regime. There was a long period when Rays prospects were all duds.

Except... I've done this research already... do you realize that in a 15-year period I studied last year, only about 33% of first-round picks actually ever reach arbitration? So regardless of the Reds' track record, the odds are well against guys becoming "regulars."

But I'll take your definition at face value. I'll look at all of Baseball America's top-20 prospects from 1990-2005 that were in AAA that season. We'll see how it breaks down.

So please define for me the "regular" definition so I can know what we're looking at. What is a suitable performance level by position that you are basing your "90%" number on?

To know if your complete guess is remotely accurate, I need for you to define what constitutes a "regular."

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 06:00 PM
I'm not talking about #1 picks. I'm talking about top 15 prospects in all of baseball who are currently at AAA.

Plus, All those guys were drafted close to 10 years ago, under a completely different regime. There was a long period when Rays prospects were all duds.

By adding "at AAA" you totally shifted the bar.

mth123
07-25-2011, 06:03 PM
Back to Upton. I really wanted the Reds to take a run at his brother in the off-season and had interest in BJ as well, but I'm in the camp that doesn't see him as addressing many of the Reds issues. He's splitty the wrong way, has been declining and doesn't really fit in the middle of the order.

Some one made a good point about Upton going from the AL East to the NL Central and I think that is very valid, but if it takes two of the top chips to get him (Alonso, Grandal, Volquez, Wood, Heisey, etc.) I think the Reds could do a lot better. I would be interested if the cost was lower and it was a pre-curseor to moving Stubbs for a real impact arm who can stick around for a while, but even at lower cost, if he was stuck in LF and billed as the answer to this team's woes, I'd be disappointed. I'd prefer a Gomes/Alonso platoon to BJ.

jojo
07-25-2011, 06:05 PM
By adding "at AAA" you totally shifted the bar.

The appropriate bar is 23year old catchers with above average defensive skills who are OPSing .878 in AAA.... Who cares what round he was drafted in?

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 06:06 PM
The appropriate bar is 23year old catchers with above average defensive skills who are OPSing .878 in AAA.... Who cares what round he was drafted in?

Not me. I just questioned the thought that 90 percent of hitting prospects ranked top-15 turn into regulars.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 06:08 PM
Back to Upton. I really wanted the Reds to take a run at his brother in the off-season and had interest in BJ as well, but I'm in the camp that doesn't see him as addressing many of the Reds issues. He's splitty the wrong way, has been declining and doesn't really fit in the middle of the order.

Some one made a good point about Upton going from the AL East to the NL Central and I think that is very valid, but if it takes two of the top chips to get him (Alonso, Grandal, Volquez, Wood, Heisey, etc.) I think the Reds could do a lot better. I would be interested if the cost was lower and it was a pre-curseor to moving Stubbs for a real impact arm who can stick around for a while, but even at lower cost, if he was stuck in LF and billed as the answer to this team's woes, I'd be disappointed. I'd prefer a Gomes/Alonso platoon to BJ.

I'd have tried to get Upton from AZ this offseason if at all possible...even offering Mes for him. :D Now his brother in TB...I don't know that he would present that much of an upgrade should the Reds finally properly manage their OF.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 06:09 PM
Not me. I just questioned the thought that 90 percent of hitting prospects ranked top-15 turn into regulars.

I'm confident that's not going to be the case. And I'm willing to show the work based on his definition of a regular. I just want it defined for me by his own words.

That said, if Hermida is the definition of a regular, while the 90% may or may not be accurate, that's an extremely low bar and one that seems ridiculous to use for whether or not to trade for a top-15 pitcher.

BearcatShane
07-25-2011, 06:10 PM
Worst case scenerio is Walt includes Mes in a trade for Ubaldo and Mes turns into a superstar and a perrenial all star and Ubaldo flames out so I say do the deal.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 06:11 PM
Worst case scenerio is Walt includes Mes in a trade for Ubaldo and Mes turns into a superstar and a perrenial all star and Ubaldo flames out so I say do the deal.

You are correct. It could happen. But I agree...I'd do it.

757690
07-25-2011, 06:14 PM
Except... I've done this research already... do you realize that in a 15-year period I studied last year, only about 33% of first-round picks actually ever reach arbitration? So regardless of the Reds' track record, the odds are well against guys becoming "regulars."

But I'll take your definition at face value. I'll look at all of Baseball America's top-20 prospects from 1990-2005 that were in AAA that season. We'll see how it breaks down.

So please define for me the "regular" definition so I can know what we're looking at. What is a suitable performance level by position that you are basing your "90%" number on?

To know if your complete guess is remotely accurate, I need for you to define what constitutes a "regular."

Mes is rated #11 by one list, that's what I was going on (he's #15 of BA's). And Kal did point out a mistake I made, in counting players who were on the list for more than year, so I am sure the number is wrong. My apologies.

But I stand by the opinion that Mes has about a 90% of being one of the top catchers in the league. I think the odds of him not being that are about the same as the odds of Jimenez not being as good as he has been in his career.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 06:16 PM
Mes is rated #11 by one list, that's what I was going on (he's #15 of BA's). And Kal did point out a mistake I made, in counting players who were on the list for more than year, so I am sure the number is wrong. My apologies.

But I stand by the opinion that Mes has about a 90% of being one of the top catchers in the league. I think the odds of him not being that are about the same as the odds of Jimenez not being as good as he has been in his career.

I appreciate you recognizing that. Honestly that 90 percent sent off a "there's no way" alert in my brain. Believe me, I'm open to reason.

So that said...fill in the blank.

Devin Mesoraco has a 90 percent chance as being as good as ____________.
(name a comp please)

I'm sorry I'm not as totally confident as you are on him. Love him though.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 06:16 PM
Mes is rated #11 by one list, that's what I was going on (he's #15 of BA's). And Kal did point out a mistake I made, in counting players who were on the list for more than year, so I am sure the number is wrong. My apologies.

But I stand by the opinion that Mes has about a 90% of being one of the top catchers in the league. I think the odds of him not being that are about the same as the odds of Jimenez not being as good as he has been in his career.

Define regular for me. If you stand behind the odds... give me your definition of regular and I'll gladly do the work based on your own definition. I'm not trying to bust your opinion... but if you stand behind the numbers, how do you define it? I'll search within those parameters exactly.

What do you have to lose? I want to put your estimation to the test. If you believe it, define it for me and we'll see if there's substance to the opinion.

I want to know how you're defining "regular" so I can do the research and find out if the 90% guess is remotely accurate.

thatcoolguy_22
07-25-2011, 06:17 PM
Just call a regular whatever the number of at bats needed in a season to qualify for the batting title (400 or so?). I just want to see the results. I see both sides of the argument, and the only way to decide the Mes for ubaldo depends on 2 things: 1) value of grandal and 2) window for championship. If WJ thinks the reds can win a world series in the next 3 years (including 2011) then by all means make the deal and sign Ramon to an extension. If the window exceeds past the votto contract, I would hold onto Mes and look for an upgrade elsewhere.

jojo
07-25-2011, 06:18 PM
Concerning prospects, pitchers and position players can NOT be lumped together.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 06:18 PM
Concerning prospects, pitchers and position players can NOT be lumped together.

I think we are all talking hitting prospects...maybe I'm wrong.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 06:19 PM
Concerning prospects, pitchers and position players can NOT be lumped together.

Agreed. And I have no intentions of doing so. I'm going to aggregate them by batters/pitchers as well as individual positions.

Plus Plus
07-25-2011, 06:20 PM
I think it's the opposite. He said "primers" to describe Mesoraco and Hamilton and then said 2 others.

To me, that implies separating them into two groups: two specific primers and two additional non-primers.

I read it as a follow up to the statement that the Red Sox were unwilling to part with 3-4 top prospects. I saw the statement as a more specific classification of the (3-4 A-list) prospects required by the Reds. Another clue (that I did not include) was his statement earlier that "3-4 for one" trades for superstars basically never happen any more.

Regardless, I think it is clear that 1) Ubaldo Jimenez is available, and 2) the Reds have the goods to potentially get him if they decide to pull the trigger.

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2011, 06:22 PM
A rotation headed by Ubaldo Jimenez and Johnny Cueto can win you a lot of games. Toss in Chapman next season and the Reds would have the potential to own one of the best rotations in all of baseball.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 06:23 PM
Just call a regular whatever the number of at bats needed in a season to qualify for the batting title (400 or so?). I just want to see the results. I see both sides of the argument, and the only way to decide the Mes for ubaldo depends on 2 things: 1) value of grandal and 2) window for championship. If WJ thinks the reds can win a world series in the next 3 years (including 2011) then by all means make the deal and sign Ramon to an extension. If the window exceeds past the votto contract, I would hold onto Mes and look for an upgrade elsewhere.

That would be 502, which would work for me as a definition... but we'd have to determine how many years one needs to qualify before being termed a regular. After all, a prospect that starts for two seasons then loses his job... that doesn't seem like they should qualify.

Kc61
07-25-2011, 06:24 PM
I'd pass on trading Mes, Hamilton and more for Ubaldo.

I'd probably pass on the deal straight up for Mes.

You have to be very careful overpaying for pitching at GABP.

Ubaldo does not particularly have ground ball tendencies. If his fastball has lost a bit, as reported, who can be sure how well he would do at GABP?

A certain kind of pitcher succeeds at GABP. Oddly, Volquez in his good year was that kind of pitcher. Strikeouts and ground balls.

I'm impressed by Mes' meteoric rise in the minors at such a young age. He plays a very difficult position to find. IMO he is highly valuable.

I wouldn't trade Mes in a Ubaldo deal.

I would trade any other two prospects in the organization, plus someone like Heisey. I'd even trade Volquez, Hamilton, and Alonso, no small package.

Not Mes.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-25-2011, 06:25 PM
Worst case scenerio is Walt includes Mes in a trade for Ubaldo and Mes turns into a superstar and a perrenial all star and Ubaldo flames out so I say do the deal.

We don't have to go back very far our last trade of that kind. I'd say the Hamilton-Volquez trade turned into exactly your worst-case scenario for Ubaldo-Mes.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 06:26 PM
We don't have to go back very far our last trade of that kind. I'd say the Hamilton-Volquez trade turned into exactly your worst-case scenario for Ubaldo-Mes.

Except that was the exact opposite. The Reds traded an established position player for an unproven pitching prospect. In this case, the Reds would be trading an unproven hitting prospect for an established pitcher. Completely different situation.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 06:28 PM
Absent any other definition, I'm going to define "regular" as anyone that's qualified for the batting title at least 5 times in their career.

Does anyone take issue with that?

jojo
07-25-2011, 06:33 PM
In his article in BTN, Victor Wang examined the to 100 players as ranked by BA, and found that 90% of the hitters ranked in BAs top 10 went on at least be contributors at the major league level (ie their bat averaged at least .8 wins above bench per year). Of that 90%, 25 % became everyday players and another 15% became stars.

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2011, 06:34 PM
Jon Heyman was just on MLB Network and said the Reds are the most likely destination for Ubaldo Jimenez if he's traded.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 06:36 PM
In his article in BTN, Victor Wang examined the to 100 players as ranked by BA, and found that 90% of the hitters ranked in BAs top 10 went on at least be contributors at the major league level (ie their bat averaged at least .8 wins above bench per year). Of that 90%, 25 % became everyday players and another 15% became stars.

If that's the case, if Mesoraco has a 25% chance of becoming an everyday player, that's not very good incentive for not trading for Ubaldo.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 06:36 PM
In his article in BTN, Victor Wang examined the to 100 players as ranked by BA, and found that 90% of the hitters ranked in BAs top 10 went on at least be contributors at the major league level (ie their bat averaged at least .8 wins above bench per year). Of that 90%, 25 % became everyday players and another 15% became stars.

I believe that. Now I do equate regular and everyday.

mdccclxix
07-25-2011, 06:37 PM
If that's the case, if Mesoraco has a 25% chance of becoming an everyday player, that's not very good incentive for not trading for Ubaldo.

Actually 22.5%! :beerme:

Brutus
07-25-2011, 06:38 PM
I believe that. Now I do equate regular and everyday.

Yep. If Mesoraco has, empirically, a 25% chance of becoming an everyday player and 15% chance of being a star, that right there screams "Ubaldo!"

I don't pass up a top-15 pitcher for 25% chance that my catching prospect sticks as an everyday player.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 06:39 PM
Actually 22.5%! :beerme:

There you go lol

mdccclxix
07-25-2011, 06:39 PM
On Mesoraco, anyone else concerned about his 24% CS rate this year? 56 SB's? I know his defense has been improving, but it was never a strength from the start.

IslandRed
07-25-2011, 06:39 PM
Absent any other definition, I'm going to define "regular" as anyone that's qualified for the batting title at least 5 times in their career.

Does anyone take issue with that?

Might end up shortchanging catchers, since they get more days off and job-share arrangements just from the nature of the position. Some of them would be knocked out of "qualified" range by so much as a 15-day DL stint.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 06:41 PM
Might end up shortchanging catchers, since they get more days off and job-share arrangements just from the nature of the position. Some of them would be knocked out of "qualified" range by so much as a 15-day DL stint.

That's a fair point though I think most quality starting catchers will survive that threshold if they're remotely healthy most of the year.

reds44
07-25-2011, 06:41 PM
You give Mes for Ubaldo everyday of the week and twice on Tuesdays.

Kc61
07-25-2011, 06:43 PM
One big question in all this is Grandal.

He's a switch hitting catcher. Not easy to find. A first round pick.

If folks think that Grandal's a very good prospect, after one year of pro ball, then maybe I'd soften my stance on trading Mes.

Is it a reasonable decision to trade Mes because Grandal is almost as good, and has that switch hitting capability?

reds44
07-25-2011, 06:46 PM
One big question in all this is Grandal.

He's a switch hitting catcher. Not easy to find. A first round pick.

If folks think that Grandal's a very good prospect, after one year of pro ball, then maybe I'd soften my stance on trading Mes.

Is it a reasonable decision to trade Mes because Grandal is almost as good, and has that switch hitting capability?
Grandal is not the prospect Mes is, but yes, absolutely. I don't see how having Grandal wouldn't make it easier to trade Mes.

jojo
07-25-2011, 06:53 PM
If that's the case, if Mesoraco has a 25% chance of becoming an everyday player, that's not very good incentive for not trading for Ubaldo.

He'd have a 40% chance of becoming at least an everyday player (everyday+star).

http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-11.pdf

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 06:55 PM
He'd have a 40% chance of becoming at least an everyday player (everyday+star).



Or 36%? I love math.

mdccclxix
07-25-2011, 06:55 PM
One big question in all this is Grandal.

He's a switch hitting catcher. Not easy to find. A first round pick.

If folks think that Grandal's a very good prospect, after one year of pro ball, then maybe I'd soften my stance on trading Mes.

Is it a reasonable decision to trade Mes because Grandal is almost as good, and has that switch hitting capability?

Absolutely. Grandal eases the blow considerably. Barnhardt in Dayton is doing well, too.

Just looking for comps for Mesoraco, how about this player:

23 years old, AAA, International League, 6 foot, 210 lbs, slashed
.282/ .363 /.471/.834 with 16 HR and 41 2b - 2:1 K:BB ratio. Looks like Mez, right? Brandon Moss (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=moss--001bra), now with the Pirates. Not a catcher, I know, but it's a close statistical match.

Others:
Josh Fields (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=fields001jos)
Franklin Gutierez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gutier002fra)
Adam LaRoche (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=laroch001dav)

mdccclxix
07-25-2011, 06:59 PM
Railing on Mez here, but how are his splits looking this year vs RHP? I don't think the lineup needs another LHP killer/ RHP filler type (at the moment anyway). People bring up McCann, well, he's a lefty that kills RHP, that's more valuable than sustaining your numbers on LHP.

Homer Bailey
07-25-2011, 06:59 PM
Yep. If Mesoraco has, empirically, a 25% chance of becoming an everyday player and 15% chance of being a star, that right there screams "Ubaldo!"

I don't pass up a top-15 pitcher for 25% chance that my catching prospect sticks as an everyday player.

In what way is Ubaldo a top 15 pitcher?

jojo
07-25-2011, 06:59 PM
Or 36%? I love math.

40%.

mdccclxix
07-25-2011, 07:03 PM
He'd have a 40% chance of becoming at least an everyday player (everyday+star).

http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-11.pdf

Isn't it table 5 for Mez, players ranked 11-25, 20% everyday + 9% star= 29%?

jojo
07-25-2011, 07:05 PM
Isn't it table 5 for Mez, players ranked 11-25, 20% everyday + 9% star= 29%?

What was he ranked this year?

wheels
07-25-2011, 07:08 PM
People didn't think much of Mesaroco at all one year after he was drafted.

I do realize that Grandal is older, but my point is that Grandal wouldn't be a bad plan b for the future at catcher.

I would probably make a Mes for Jimenez deal, but only straight up. No Hamilton.

mth123
07-25-2011, 07:10 PM
The thing about dealing Mes is this. The Reds literally have dozens of young players with value, many of whom won't get much chance to contribute in Cincy because of players in front of them. The Reds would seem able to put a package together that could exclude Mes in any deal. Of all of those players, Mesoraco is the one guy who's skillset fits perfectly with the Reds needs going forward. On defense he can be the catcher of the next 10 years while at bat he can be the RH mid-order bat that this team has been missing since Eric Davis left town. There is no need to deal him. They have plenty to get what they want without making that deal.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 07:12 PM
In his article in BTN, Victor Wang examined the to 100 players as ranked by BA, and found that 90% of the hitters ranked in BAs top 10 went on at least be contributors at the major league level (ie their bat averaged at least .8 wins above bench per year). Of that 90%, 25 % became everyday players and another 15% became stars.

How is that not 36 percent?

Brutus
07-25-2011, 07:13 PM
He'd have a 40% chance of becoming at least an everyday player (everyday+star).

http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-11.pdf

OK I assumed star was included in everyday players, but didn't realize it was tiered off. That makes sense.

Nonetheless, if he's included in "hitters 11-25," I see a 29% chance of being an everyday player.

So my point most definitely stands... I would not remotely let that stop me from trading for a proven commodity.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 07:14 PM
What was he ranked this year?

Before the season, he was ranked No. 64. In the midseason update, he was ranked No. 15.

757690
07-25-2011, 07:14 PM
I just did the numbers, and according to Brutus' rules, over 75% of BA Top 15 prospects became regulars for at least 5 years.

I have no idea what study Jo-Jo was referring to, but they got it way wrong.

I will post all the names shortly. You will be shocked as to how accurate BA has been when it comes to hitters.

There have 8 catchers in the last 20 years, and five have been All-Stars, (six if you count Buster Posey.) Only one catcher, Ben Davis, never really made it.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 07:15 PM
I just did the numbers, and according to Brutus' rules, 80% of BA Top 15 prospects became regulars for at least 5 years.

I have no idea what study Jo-Jo was referring to, but they got it way wrong.

I will post all the names shortly. You will be shocked as to how accurate BA has been when it comes to hitters.

There have 8 catchers in the last 20 years, and five have been All-Stars, (six if you count Buster Posey.) Only one catcher, Ben Davis, never really made it.


One more quick note,

This is the study jojo is referring to:

http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-11.pdf

Their numbers come nowhere near yours

mdccclxix
07-25-2011, 07:16 PM
nm

757690
07-25-2011, 07:18 PM
This is the study jojo is referring to:

http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-11.pdf

Their numbers come nowhere near yours

I did 1990 to 2008. I'll list the names and you'll see in amazing company Mes is in and why the Reds should keep him.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 07:19 PM
I did 1990 to 2008. I'll list the names and you'll see in amazing company Mes is in and why the Reds should keep him.

Doing just catchers is a huge sample size issue.

HUGE sample size issue. Especially since you've admitted there's only a sample of eight to go by.

I think using generic hitters is a much, much better study rather than just doing position. After all, catchers don't inherently stand any better chance of succeeding as a hitter than other position players.

membengal
07-25-2011, 07:20 PM
The thing about dealing Mes is this. The Reds literally have dozens of young players with value, many of whom won't get much chance to contribute in Cincy because of players in front of them. The Reds would seem able to put a package together that could exclude Mes in any deal. Of all of those players, Mesoraco is the one guy who's skillset fits perfectly with the Reds needs going forward. On defense he can be the catcher of the next 10 years while at bat he can be the RH mid-order bat that this team has been missing since Eric Davis left town. There is no need to deal him. They have plenty to get what they want without making that deal.

This.

Patrick Bateman
07-25-2011, 07:20 PM
How is that not 36 percent?

Because the numbers add up to 40%.

It's not 40% of 90%. It's just 40%.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 07:24 PM
Because the numbers add up to 40%.

It's not 40% of 90%. It's just 40%.

What about the qualifier "of those 90 percent".?

Brutus
07-25-2011, 07:29 PM
In what way is Ubaldo a top 15 pitcher?

Let's see... in the way that since he came up, he's top-15 in MLB in WAR.

He's tied for 9th, in fact, since 2008 -- his first full season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0

11larkin11
07-25-2011, 07:39 PM
Not to go Off Topic of the Off Topic, but I like to check this thread for Reds Rumors, not argument over percentages or the likelihood of Mesoraco becoming a star. Mesoraco has plenty of threads, and random numbers have plenty of threads as well.

jojo
07-25-2011, 07:40 PM
What about the qualifier "of those 90 percent".?

I linked to the article in a previous post so you can see the raw numbers in case my language loaded the point.

kaldaniels
07-25-2011, 07:44 PM
I linked to the article in a previous post so you can see the raw numbers in case my language loaded the point.

I think you are saying you shouldn't have put that qualifier in your orignal post but I don't translate jojo-speak too well. ;)

757690
07-25-2011, 07:49 PM
Here is the list. The flops are in bold. Over 75% of these names are not in bold. Over half of them were All-Stars.


John Olerud Royce Clayton Ruben Rivera Juan Encarnacion Hank Blalock Prince Fielder
Juan Gonzalez Derek Bell Derin erstad JD Drew Joe Mauer Andy Marte
Sandy Alomar jr. Cliff Floyd Karin Garcia Eric Chavez Wilson Betemit Ian Stewert
Todd Zeile Carlos Delgado Vlad Guerrero Michael Barrett Mark Teixeira Joel Guzman
Eric Anthony Tim Salmon Ben Davis Pablo Ozuna Austin Kearns Hanley Ramirez
Greg Vaughn Dmitri Young Derrick Gibson Ruben Mateo Joe Borchard Dallas McPhearson
Jose Offerman Manny Rameriz Travis Lee Alex Escobar Angel Berroa Lastings Milledge
Delino Deshields Ray McDonald Miguel Tejeda Lance Berkman Rocco Baldelli Jeff Francoeur
Robin Ventua Jeffrery Hammonds Todd Walker Carlos Beltran Jose reyes Juston Upton
Andujar Cedeno Alex Gonzalez Nomar Pat Burrell Brandon Phillips Brandon Wood
Ryan Klesko A-Rod Paul Konerko Corey Patterson Hideki Matsui Jeremy Hermeda
Ivan Rodriquez Trot Nixon Jose Cruz jr. Vernon Wells Miquel Cabrera Stephen Drew
Reggie Sanders Derek Jeter Scott Rolen Nick Johnson Casey Kotchamn Howie Kendrick
Mark Lewis Brian Hunter Derrek Lee Sean Burroughs Justin Morneau Alex Gordon
Mo vaughn Shawn Green Adrian Beltre Rafeal Furcal Jason Stokes Ryan Zimmerman
Bernie Williams Charles Johnson Aramis Ramirez Dee Brown BJ Upton Cameran Maybin
Wil Cordero Johnny damon Todd Helton Josh Hamilton Delmon Young Evan Longoria
Rondell White Ben Grieve Mark Kotsay Ichiro Rickie Weeks Chris Young
Raul Mondesi Todd Hollandsworth Chad Hermannson Carlos Pena Alex Rios Andrew McCutchen
Chipper Jones Andruw Jones Brad Fulmer Drew Henson Grady Sizemore Jay Bruce
Evan Longoria Colby Rasmus Tulo Travis Snider Matt Wieters Jacob Ellsbury

757690
07-25-2011, 07:50 PM
Not to go Off Topic of the Off Topic, but I like to check this thread for Reds Rumors, not argument over percentages or the likelihood of Mesoraco becoming a star. Mesoraco has plenty of threads, and random numbers have plenty of threads as well.

My apologies. I'll stop. My bad.

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2011, 08:00 PM
From Danny Knobler:

While Rays have told teams they will not move Shields, they are willing to discuss Niemann or Davis. #tradedeadline

http://twitter.com/DKnobler

Ubaldo Jimenez would be my number one target but if a deal falls through for him, Niemann would be a solid addition. He's not an ace but would make for a fine #2 or 3 starter.

reds44
07-25-2011, 08:10 PM
Blah. I don't want to start settling for guys.

757690
07-25-2011, 08:36 PM
Carlos Quentin might be available. He'd look good in-between Votto and Bruce.

Dan
07-25-2011, 08:46 PM
Carlos Quentin might be available. He'd look good in-between Votto and Bruce.

Yes, yes he would.

Do we talk about adding Edwin Jackson to the mix?

Benihana
07-25-2011, 08:48 PM
From Danny Knobler:

While Rays have told teams they will not move Shields, they are willing to discuss Niemann or Davis. #tradedeadline

http://twitter.com/DKnobler

Ubaldo Jimenez would be my number one target but if a deal falls through for him, Niemann would be a solid addition. He's not an ace but would make for a fine #2 or 3 starter.

I would be interested in Niemann, but only if he came along with Upton. This team needs a bat and an arm.

TOBTTReds
07-25-2011, 09:10 PM
Blah. I don't want to start settling for guys.

Mesoraco and Niemann or

Ubaldo and no Mez?

mattfeet
07-25-2011, 09:45 PM
According to MLB Network, Reds and Rockies had a 2-hour conference call today.

-matt

corkedbat
07-25-2011, 09:47 PM
Mesoraco and Niemann or

Ubaldo and no Mez?

Mez either way.

Brutus
07-25-2011, 09:51 PM
According to MLB Network, Reds and Rockies had a 2-hour conference call today.

-matt

That kind of thing sounds awfully encouraging.

REDblooded
07-25-2011, 09:54 PM
One doesn't need to go back very far in time to remember how Austin Kearns had a short shelf-life. John Oliver. Chris Gruler. Jeremy Sowers. Ty Howington. David Espinosa. Brandon Larson. C.J. Nitkowski. Chad Mottola. Ryan Wagner. These are all first-round guys in the last 20 years that were complete busts or never lived up to being "regulars" in the majors. Kearns was a "regular" for a while, but surely not the type of player you're unwilling to trade for someone like Ubaldo.

Historically, Reds' first-rounders don't even have much better than 50% chance of being a "regular." Nevermind the fact that being a regular and being an all-star caliber player are two different things.

And never mind that until Castellini the Reds had a history of tightwad owners that pushed below slot players early in the draft...

REDblooded
07-25-2011, 10:01 PM
Except that was the exact opposite. The Reds traded an established position player for an unproven pitching prospect. In this case, the Reds would be trading an unproven hitting prospect for an established pitcher. Completely different situation.

Established position player?

As in being 298 major league AB's removed from being a rule 5 draft pick?

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2011, 10:01 PM
According to MLB Network, Reds and Rockies had a 2-hour conference call today.

-matt

Who reported this?

mattfeet
07-25-2011, 10:03 PM
Not sure. Buddy of mine just e-mailed me and told me he heard that. Ill try to find out.

-Matt

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2011, 10:05 PM
http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal/status/95576373237784576 (http://twitter.com/#%21/Ken_Rosenthal/status/95576373237784576)


Reds are getting calls on Edinson Volquez .... interesting



The Reds are drawing interest from multiple teams on righty Edinson Volquez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/volqued01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker), tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (http://twitter.com/#%21/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/95576373237784576). The 28-year-old has a 5.93 ERA on the season and spent time at Triple-A. Still, he throws hard and is under team control through 2013.

As far as I'm concerned...THIS is the most important "rumor" I've seen. I'd love it if we could swing a deal to get something of value for Volquez.

corkedbat
07-25-2011, 10:06 PM
That kind of thing sounds awfully encouraging.

If Jocketty does get stupid and include Mes, I want a wider deal that includes Street and a position player - not straight up - we'd include others (Stubbs? Volquez? Relievers?). Damn! I still thiink giving up Mez will bite us in the assbig time, but I swear I feel it coming on! Do the Rox have any young 2B's. 3B's or corner OFer's in their upper pipeline?

If they do decide to include him in this deal, it better leave pleanty of other pieces for other deals.

corkedbat
07-25-2011, 10:10 PM
Izzy closing - Mets showcasing. :D

REDblooded
07-25-2011, 10:11 PM
Jeff Niemann is a player that you can find me mentioning previously as a wonderful target... Only downside is that he's only under contract for the remainder of the season iirc.

REDblooded
07-25-2011, 10:22 PM
And for those counting on Grandal... Don't forget he played the majority of this season in a league that widely inflates a hitters numbers historically.

aubashbrother
07-25-2011, 10:42 PM
I was watching MLB Network earlier and I'm pretty sure they didn't say the Reds and the Rockies had a 2 hour conference call today. They said that the Rockies had a 2 hour conference call with scouts , higher ups and what not about potential deals.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-26-2011, 12:15 AM
I was watching MLB Network earlier and I'm pretty sure they didn't say the Reds and the Rockies had a 2 hour conference call today. They said that the Rockies had a 2 hour conference call with scouts , higher ups and what not about potential deals.

Well this is the proverbial wet blanket. :thumbdown:

OnBaseMachine
07-26-2011, 01:29 AM
From Jon Morosi:


The Reds have been pursuing Jimenez for weeks, sources say, and they remain very much involved in the talks. The Tigers, who seem determined to add a starter, have Jimenez near the top of their list, as well.


An exchange of names has occurred between the Rockies and at least one team, a source said.



http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/source_chances_of_jimenez_deal_around_5050/5720560

Superdude
07-26-2011, 01:46 AM
This has probably been discussed, but isn't Jimenez's drop in velocity a bit concerning? Maybe he's just choosing to dial it back a bit, but giving up a major package of prospects for damaged goods would be awfully crippling going forward.

Ron Madden
07-26-2011, 05:23 AM
I know fans don't matter, but Tampa fans are smart enough to realize that ain't enough for Upton.

Tampa Fans?... Tampa Fans?... There are more people in the dugout than in the stands... Tampa Fans?


;)

mattfeet
07-26-2011, 07:46 AM
Who reported this?

It was apparently during the Intentional Talk program FWIW.

Matt

MikeS21
07-26-2011, 08:30 AM
As far as I'm concerned...THIS is the most important "rumor" I've seen. I'd love it if we could swing a deal to get something of value for Volquez.
I agree, but I am also resigned to the fact that Volquez will eventually wind up in St. Louis and will put it all together and will become that stud #1 stater everyone has waited for all these years. And he will pitch like Cy Young every time - the 4-5 starts per year he faces the Reds.:laugh:

OldXOhio
07-26-2011, 08:54 AM
I agree, but I am also resigned to the fact that Volquez will eventually wind up in St. Louis and will put it all together and will become that stud #1 stater everyone has waited for all these years. And he will pitch like Cy Young every time - the 4-5 starts per year he faces the Reds.:laugh:

Exactly. Give Dave Duncan the guy with "stuff" and watch him go.

Makes my stomach turn even thinking about that prospect.

REDREAD
07-26-2011, 11:01 AM
Really?

Back to just Mes. How many catchers post his offensive numbers in AAA at his age and don't succeed? Finding a sample size of players is tough because there are so few guys that have done what he's done.
.

Just for the sake of fun.. Alan Knicely posted a 950 OPS in AAA at age 24 and got his first of many cups of coffee in the bigs.. He continued to bounce up and down between the minors (where he excelled) and the majors, when he failed.

Doesn't have much to do with Mes, but I remember getting so excited as a kid when the Reds called up Knicely, due to his gaudy AAA numbers.

bucksfan2
07-26-2011, 11:09 AM
Just for the sake of fun.. Alan Knicely posted a 950 OPS in AAA at age 24 and got his first of many cups of coffee in the bigs.. He continued to bounce up and down between the minors (where he excelled) and the majors, when he failed.

Doesn't have much to do with Mes, but I remember getting so excited as a kid when the Reds called up Knicely, due to his gaudy AAA numbers.

Remember how in demand Saltamachia was? Since then he has bounced around and ended up as a platoon catcher with the Red Sox.

REDREAD
07-26-2011, 11:12 AM
So please define for me the "regular" definition so I can know what we're looking at. What is a suitable performance level by position that you are basing your "90%" number on?

To know if your complete guess is remotely accurate, I need for you to define what constitutes a "regular."

Excellent question.
Just as a point of reference.
UJ's WAR
2008 3.1
2009 5.1
2010 7.2
2011 (so far) 1.9

I don't think WAR is gospel, but I kind of doubt that 90% of top 15 prospects exceed a WAR of 3 on a consistent basis. I doubt half do (although maybe I am wrong).

I would ship Mes and any 2 players in the minors (including Wood/volquez) to the Rockies for UJ.

aubashbrother
07-26-2011, 11:18 AM
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_18548834

The Rockies have asked for Mes , Chapman , and Heisey among others . Pass. Time to focus on a bat .

Also from Buster Olneys twitter the Reds are not currently in Beltran talks

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/statuses/95869315202555904

GoReds
07-26-2011, 11:20 AM
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_18548834

The Rockies have asked for Mes , Chapman , and Heisey among others . Pass. Time to focus on a bat .

Also from Buster Olneys twitter the Reds are not currently in Beltran talks

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/statuses/95869315202555904

Not pass - counteroffer.

They can ASK for them all they want. The Reds should counter with Grandal, Heisey and Wood plus another lower prospect.

Edd Roush
07-26-2011, 11:20 AM
I have already been on record saying that Ubaldo would make this team the class of the division. With only 60 games left in 2011, it may be hard to overcome the three top teams in the division being four back of the leader, but I really think this move primes the Reds well for 2012. If Mes was dealt, it would be a great price to pay, but I think Ubaldo is worth it.

The 2011/2012/2013 rotation would be:

Ubaldo
Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Arroyo

That is pretty good especially when Arroyo is moved to the bullpen for the playoffs.

Also, I feel like if the Reds trade Billy Hamilton they will be selling high on his stock. I really don't like his ability to hit for power in the bigs and he is still many years away from the bigs. If they view him as a big part of the deal, and the final deal is Hamilton/Mes/2 lower tier minor leaguers (ie not Alonso, Grandal, Frazier, Wood, Volquez), I think the Reds are making the right deal.

Edd Roush
07-26-2011, 11:21 AM
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_18548834

The Rockies have asked for Mes , Chapman , and Heisey among others . Pass. Time to focus on a bat .

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/statuses/95869315202555904

Agreed, I don't really want to deal Chapman or Mes, let alone both in the same deal. Heisey is expendable IMO.

REDREAD
07-26-2011, 11:29 AM
The Rockies have asked for Mes , Chapman , and Heisey among others . Pass. Time to focus on a bat .


:lol:
I had the feeling that the Rockies were just wasting everyone's time with this. They will probably try to get the Reds to "toss in" Bruce and Votto too.

No Chapman..

OnBaseMachine
07-26-2011, 11:39 AM
•Rockies beat writer Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post counters Morosi, saying "chances remain slim" of a Jimenez trade. He says the Rockies "continue to listen and negotiate with multiple teams regarding Jimenez, with the Reds receiving the most attention," but in general Colorado's demands are so high that no team is expected to bite.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/ubaldo-jimenez-trade-unlikely.html

bucksfan2
07-26-2011, 11:41 AM
Would your do Chapman for Ubaldo straight up? How about Chapman and Wood?

I(heart)Freel
07-26-2011, 11:46 AM
I have already been on record saying that Ubaldo would make this team the class of the division. With only 60 games left in 2011, it may be hard to overcome the three top teams in the division being four back of the leader, but I really think this move primes the Reds well for 2012. If Mes was dealt, it would be a great price to pay, but I think Ubaldo is worth it.

The 2011/2012/2013 rotation would be:

Ubaldo
Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Arroyo

That is pretty good especially when Arroyo is moved to the bullpen for the playoffs.

Also, I feel like if the Reds trade Billy Hamilton they will be selling high on his stock. I really don't like his ability to hit for power in the bigs and he is still many years away from the bigs. If they view him as a big part of the deal, and the final deal is Hamilton/Mes/2 lower tier minor leaguers (ie not Alonso, Grandal, Frazier, Wood, Volquez), I think the Reds are making the right deal.

No faith in Chapman as a starter in the coming years?

He's the reason why I would NOT overpay (read: Mes) for Ubaldo.

The Reds' biggest need this year and in the coming years remains a RH hitter to put btw Votto and Bruce in the order. Assets (not Mes) should be used to acquire that, with the full intention of the Chapman starter experiment launching next spring.

cumberlandreds
07-26-2011, 11:48 AM
Pretty much what I thought all along. Jimenez and James aren't going anywhere unless their teams get the moon.

Benihana
07-26-2011, 11:56 AM
Would your do Chapman for Ubaldo straight up? Yes.

How about Chapman and Wood? Maybe.


In an email exchange with MLBTR, Renck clarified that the Rockies asked for Mesoraco and Chapman together while Heisey is simply another name that has come up in talks.

No chance.

757690
07-26-2011, 11:59 AM
Excellent question.
Just as a point of reference.
UJ's WAR
2008 3.1
2009 5.1
2010 7.2
2011 (so far) 1.9

I don't think WAR is gospel, but I kind of doubt that 90% of top 15 prospects exceed a WAR of 3 on a consistent basis. I doubt half do (although maybe I am wrong).

I would ship Mes and any 2 players in the minors (including Wood/volquez) to the Rockies for UJ.

Just for the record, an average defensive catcher with an OPS of .750 would be a 3 win player. Ryan Hanigan is on pace, as part of a platoon, to be a 3 win player. That's how valuable catchers in general are. The top 15 prospect label for Mesoraco is a canard. We should be comparing him to catchers, not prospects.

signalhome
07-26-2011, 12:10 PM
Would your do Chapman for Ubaldo straight up? How about Chapman and Wood?

Yes and yes without even stopping to think about it.

Edit: I am assuming Chapman remains a reliever. Chapman as a starter, okay, I have to give it some thought, but I'm still leaning yes.

bucksfan2
07-26-2011, 12:17 PM
I am getting to the point where I want Walt to make a big splash and don't care if he overpays. If it takes what many minor league folks think is overpaying for a guy like Jimenez to improve the team over the long haul then go for it. If you put a rotation together of:

Jimenez
Cueto
Bailey
Leake

you have a nice combo of young, fairly inexpensive, locked up, and live arms. It solves one of the Reds biggest issues and frees up some space to make a run at a legit LF over the off season.

OnBaseMachine
07-26-2011, 12:20 PM
From Jon Heyman:



The Reds are cited as the most logical landing spot if Jimenez is traded because they have the best prospects. Yonder Alonso is blocked at first base by Joey Votto, but he'd make a natural replacement for Todd Helton in Colorado. Plus, the Reds' have so many viable young pitchers that Travis Wood and Edinson Volquez are currently in the minors.




• Tampa Bay's B.J. Upton appears likely to be dealt. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, interested teams include the Nationals, Braves, Pirates, Reds, Cardinals and Phillies.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/07/26/beltran.pence.jimenez/index.html#ixzz1TEGIZkvu

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/07/26/beltran.pence.jimenez/index.html#ixzz1TEG6F9kn

RedsManRick
07-26-2011, 12:24 PM
Teams playing for the future have no reason to ask for anything less than the sun and the moon in the middle of the season. What do they care if they get a prospect now or in 6 months? The market isn't exactly going to dry up for a guy like Jimenez or Upton -- so why compromise now when they can likely get just as much in December as they'd get in a more "realistic" package today? That doesn't mean they'll get that huge package, but why not hold out and see if somebody bites? They have no sense of urgency.

Really, the only urgency lies in pending FAs like Beltran and Bell. That's where buyers have leverage.

Kc61
07-26-2011, 12:44 PM
Just for the sake of fun.. Alan Knicely posted a 950 OPS in AAA at age 24 and got his first of many cups of coffee in the bigs.. He continued to bounce up and down between the minors (where he excelled) and the majors, when he failed.

Doesn't have much to do with Mes, but I remember getting so excited as a kid when the Reds called up Knicely, due to his gaudy AAA numbers.

My recollection is that Knicely is something of a different case. He was not a highly touted prospect. Suddenly, out of the blue, he got red hot (no pun intended) at AAA. I remember being quite anxious to see him as a Red.

Reds brought him up and he didn't succeed.

I think Mes is a very different situation. He's more of a highly touted prospect, a top 50 prospect, a guy expected to be a fine major league catcher.

I'm glad you pointed to the Knicely situation. I remember it well. Too bad, he was on fire at AAA.

Lefty hitter as I recall?

jojo
07-26-2011, 12:56 PM
My recollection is that Knicely is something of a different case. He was not a highly touted prospect. Suddenly, out of the blue, he got red hot (no pun intended) at AAA. I remember being quite anxious to see him as a Red.

Reds brought him up and he didn't succeed.

I think Mes is a very different situation. He's more of a highly touted prospect, a top 50 prospect, a guy expected to be a fine major league catcher.

I'm glad you pointed to the Knicely situation. I remember it well. Too bad, he was on fire at AAA.

Lefty hitter as I recall?

Knicely was a righty who first went crazy as a 24yo in the Southern league (AA). He actually was a converted pitcher who first played SS during his breakout season in AA and then played catcher the next season (which explains why he had almost zero defensive skills behind the plate). its probably not fair to call him a catching prospect.

Edd Roush
07-26-2011, 01:04 PM
No faith in Chapman as a starter in the coming years?

He's the reason why I would NOT overpay (read: Mes) for Ubaldo.

The Reds' biggest need this year and in the coming years remains a RH hitter to put btw Votto and Bruce in the order. Assets (not Mes) should be used to acquire that, with the full intention of the Chapman starter experiment launching next spring.

If I was Walt, he'd be in the minors right now being stretched out for September in the rotation. Horst would take his spot in the bullpen.

I just don't know if the Reds truly ever plan on having Chapman in the rotation. If they did, he would not be pitching out of the pen this year. But that is getting this thread off topic.

Chapman still has a tremendous amount of trade value as a starting pitching prospect, but much less as a reliever. I think I trade Chapman plus other non-premium prospects for Ubaldo, just as I would trade Mes and other non-premium prospects for Ubaldo.

I just think giving up a Chapman+Mes or even an Alonso/Grandal/Wood/Volquez would be a mistake.

I want Ubaldo, but not for the whole farm.

757690
07-26-2011, 01:16 PM
Knicely was a righty who first went crazy as a 24yo in the Southern league (AA). He actually was a converted pitcher who first played SS during his breakout season in AA and then played catcher the next season (which explains why he had almost zero defensive skills behind the plate). its probably not fair to call him a catching prospect.

I just remember him always styln'. :)

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/511N0s99UiL._SL500_AA300_.jpghttp://www.sportsbuy.com/images/ordscans/new_thumbs/book/4791110.jpghttp://www.nerdbaseball.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/knicely-alan_1.jpg

CySeymour
07-26-2011, 01:25 PM
I saw Nicely hit a rocket 3-run homerun back in the day down at Riverfront at a game I went to with my dad.

johngalt
07-26-2011, 01:33 PM
Hopefully seeing an example of what some teams ask for in trades shows fans why it's not as simple as just "make it happen" when it comes to deals.

757690
07-26-2011, 01:39 PM
From Jayson Stark:


The Rockies are still listening on Ubaldo Jimenez, with teams like the Reds, Red Sox and Rangers still poking around. But the price hasn't dropped one iota (three sure-thing young players, including one pitcher who goes into their rotation immediately). So an exec of one team that spoke with them estimates that the odds Ubaldo gets traded are no better than 25 percent

I think they won't get a better offer than Alonso, Volquez, Wood and Heisey. I don't know if that is enough to convince them to trade Jimenez, however.

cumberlandreds
07-26-2011, 01:57 PM
I saw Nicely hit a rocket 3-run homerun back in the day down at Riverfront at a game I went to with my dad.

IIRC, Knicley started off hot as a Red but quickly cooled and faded away.

OldXOhio
07-26-2011, 02:09 PM
Take it for what it's worth, but I do find it encouraging if the blurb about the Reds ownership is true....

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/rays_await_major_bids_for_upton_sKikvhD6hJGkdoh7YU ycpJ#ixzz1TEbFzRdK

REDblooded
07-26-2011, 02:15 PM
Take it for what it's worth, but I do find it encouraging if the blurb about the Reds ownership is true....

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/rays_await_major_bids_for_upton_sKikvhD6hJGkdoh7YU ycpJ#ixzz1TEbFzRdK (http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/rays_await_major_bids_for_upton_sKikvhD6hJGkdoh7YU ycpJ#ixzz1TEbFzRdK)



Definitely... Leaves little doubt to their willingness to put a winning product on the field.

Dan
07-26-2011, 02:23 PM
So unlike Shields, the Rays appear to look at Upton as a player they can deal, not significantly hurt their chances to compete in the short term and spin him into pieces that can help them over the long haul. But other clubs report they continue to insist they don't have to trade him, and they won't unless some team makes it worth their while.

The Nationals continue to hover. But there are indications they've balked at dealing two pitchers the Rays are believed to have asked about: Ross Detwiler and the much-coveted Brad Peacock. So other clubs now say the team to watch is the Giants.

Link (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110726/trading-carlos-beltran-likely-get-new-york-mets-plus-prospect)

That's the asking price for Upton? Detwiler and Peacock? What are the comps for the Reds? LeCure and Wood?

BCubb2003
07-26-2011, 02:23 PM
Although I cringe when owners start driving the deals.

Ron Madden
07-26-2011, 03:01 PM
Although I cringe when owners start driving the deals.

Yep, This led to Dan O'Brian signing Eric Milton but I think Walt is smarter than that.

Superdude
07-26-2011, 03:16 PM
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_18548834

The Rockies have asked for Mes , Chapman , and Heisey among others . Pass. Time to focus on a bat .

Also from Buster Olneys twitter the Reds are not currently in Beltran talks

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/statuses/95869315202555904

Well...it's been an entertaining deadline folks. Wake me up when Scott Carroll and PTBNL get dealt for Coco Crisp.

LoganBuck
07-26-2011, 03:18 PM
At the same time, you could have the owner screaming I just want to break even, and vetoing everything.

We have seen that before.

Benihana
07-26-2011, 03:27 PM
I just remember him always styln'. :)

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/511N0s99UiL._SL500_AA300_.jpghttp://www.sportsbuy.com/images/ordscans/new_thumbs/book/4791110.jpghttp://www.nerdbaseball.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/knicely-alan_1.jpg

I had that card on the right! 1986 Topps!

Can you imagine if a player looked like that nowadays?

Caveat Emperor
07-26-2011, 04:23 PM
Take it for what it's worth, but I do find it encouraging if the blurb about the Reds ownership is true....

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/rays_await_major_bids_for_upton_sKikvhD6hJGkdoh7YU ycpJ#ixzz1TEbFzRdK

For my 10,000th post on RedsZone, allow me to say:

There's nothing more frightening than an owner giving marching orders to buy in a seller's market.

BCubb2003
07-26-2011, 04:24 PM
I had that card on the right! 1986 Topps!

Can you imagine if a player looked like that nowadays?

He'd have to grow the beard five inches or add dreadlocks to fit in.

I(heart)Freel
07-26-2011, 04:28 PM
Take it for what it's worth, but I do find it encouraging if the blurb about the Reds ownership is true....

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/rays_await_major_bids_for_upton_sKikvhD6hJGkdoh7YU ycpJ#ixzz1TEbFzRdK (http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/rays_await_major_bids_for_upton_sKikvhD6hJGkdoh7YU ycpJ#ixzz1TEbFzRdK)

From this link I saw this story about the price for a Beltran trade (hint: it's lower than you think).

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/top_prospects_no_cinch_in_beltran_KTDcqNpX3xTFeVKc xn0wIO

I ask... would Volquez be enough?

klw
07-26-2011, 04:32 PM
From this link I saw this story about the price for a Beltran trade (hint: it's lower than you think).

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/top_prospects_no_cinch_in_beltran_KTDcqNpX3xTFeVKc xn0wIO

I ask... would Volquez be enough?

Based on the article, Volquez would be too much.