Reds Rumor Central

[PuffyPig]

And it's one of the reasons why posters who think that it will take Mess, Grandal and Chapman to get a good player are undervaluing top end prospects.

[Always Red]

And it's one of the reasons why posters who think that it will take Mess, Grandal and Chapman to get a good player are undervaluing top end prospects.

I think it's also one of the reasons why these trades don't happen until the last minute- everyone holds out for the most they can get, or the least they have to pay.

[Plus Plus]

For what it's worth, Jocketty wouldn't state who the Reds' "untouchable" prospects were, but laughed at Fay when asked about Mesoraco (per MLBTR).

[Captain Hook]

Based on the article, Volquez would be too much.

Yeah maybe Walt could get them to throw in their SS.

I'd actually be just fine with a Volquez for Beltran deal.If the Rockies have interest in Edinson then maybe I'd think twice.Beltran might be a rental but that doesn't mean he wouldn't enjoy playing in Cincinnati for Dusty.Considering his injury issues the Reds might have the money to sign him if the price isn't too high and if they get some nice crowds down the stretch run.This of couse would mean he'd have to get the job done along with the rest of the team these next few months.

[Will M]

For what it's worth, Jocketty wouldn't state who the Reds' "untouchable" prospects were, but laughed at Fay when asked about Mesoraco (per MLBTR).

i read somewhere that the Reds told the Rockies there were 4 untouchable guys: Mes, Hamilton and 2 others. I'd guess one was Yorman. who the 4th one is I don't know.

[Edd Roush]

i read somewhere that the Reds told the Rockies there were 4 untouchable guys: Mes, Hamilton and 2 others. I'd guess one was Yorman. who the 4th one is I don't know.

There is no way I would categorize Hamilton as untouchable. Great potential but way too far off to call "untouchable."

[mdccclxix]

The Rockies have asked the Reds about Homer Bailey, tweets Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post.

[OnBaseMachine]

From John Fay:


“I’d prefer not to trade a lot of prospects,” Jocketty said. “But, in the right deal, I’d have to consider it. It won’t be a short-term solution. It would be a long-term solution.”

That’s probably tells you the Reds will not pursue Beltran.

Jimenez and Pence are players they would control longer.


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/07/26/jocketty-reds-arent-close-on-any-deals/

[OnBaseMachine]

Troy Renck:

Rockies talks w Reds would involve at least 1 pitcher coming back. Rox have asked about Bailey and chapman

http://twitter.com/TroyRenck

[757690]

For my 10,000th post on RedsZone, allow me to say:

There's nothing more frightening than an owner giving marching orders to buy in a seller's market.

For my 2732 post, allow me to say...

Congratulations!

You have wasted an impressive amount of time! ;)

[I(heart)Freel]

You have wasted an impressive amount of time! ;)

Now you sound like my wife...

[757690]

Troy Renck:

Rockies talks w Reds would involve at least 1 pitcher coming back. Rox have asked about Bailey and chapman

http://twitter.com/TroyRenck

I'd include Bailey if I had to. But I wouldn't include much more besides him and Alonso.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Troy Renck:

Rockies talks w Reds would involve at least 1 pitcher coming back. Rox have asked about Bailey and chapman

http://twitter.com/TroyRenck (http://twitter.com/TroyRenck)

I'd hate to see Homer leave. I really believe he's ready to take that next big step. Chapman...a year ago I would've immediately said "no way!". But now...it's starting to look to me that they'll never transition Aroldis into a starter, and if that's the case...sure, deal away. Because that's too much money for a young, mostly unproven bullpen arm.

[RedLegSuperStar]

I'd offer Bailey & Leake along with Heisey, Alonso, & Grandel (PTBNL).. if they include Wiggington and Street w/ Jimenez

[mattfeet]

Heck, keep Wiggington and Street, I just want CarGo.

-Matt

edit: And throw Tulo in as well.

[Patrick Bateman]

I'd offer Bailey & Leake along with Heisey, Alonso, & Grandel (PTBNL).. if they include Wiggington and Street w/ Jimenez

Current year WAR:
Jimenez 2.5
Wiggington 0.7
Street 0.4
Total 3.6

Bailey 0.6
Leake 1.4
Heisey 0.9
Total 2.9

So even forgetting about contracts for now, you are looking at roughly a half win upgrade, prorated for the remainder of the year, about .4 wins. Admittedly, that should be enough to almost consider contemplating putting a dent into the lead the Pirates have over us.

For that upgrade, you are willing to trade BOTH Grandal and Alonso, as well as take on Wiggy's, Street and Jiminez' salary (which although is a good contract) is dwarfed by the fact that Bailey and Leake are making almost nothing?

I'm sorry, but we really need to stop throwing around top end prospects like they are $2 lottery cards.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Heck, keep Wiggington and Street, I just want CarGo.

-Matt

edit: And throw Tulo in as well.

Ok.. way to make me feel good about my post..

[PuffyPig]

I'd offer Bailey & Leake along with Heisey, Alonso, & Grandel (PTBNL).. if they include Wiggington and Street w/ Jimenez

That's way too much to give up.

Bailey and Leake are young, cheap, and very likely to improve. Giving up two of our best starters for one better one likely doesn't improve the team.

Along with Alonso, Grandal and Heisey that is way too much to give up for 2.5years of Jimenez.

And quite a bit more than you would have to.

[corkedbat]

From this link I saw this story about the price for a Beltran trade (hint: it's lower than you think).

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_sports/top_prospects_no_cinch_in_beltran_KTDcqNpX3xTFeVKc xn0wIO

I ask... would Volquez be enough?

I've been vehemently against putting together a big package for a rental like Beltran even if they paid the remainder of the contract, mainly because I didn't want to waste a lot of talent there that could be used elsewhere in deals for guys that might be just as helpful but under control for longer.

If the Mets talent demands begin to drop steeply and I can get him for Volquez and/or parts I do it in a heartbeat. The question then though becomes, "how much money are the Mets throwing in?" If the return is gonna be much less, my guess is not much.

[Tom Servo]

Man, I'd just really like to keep Homer as I think he's right on the cusp of being really good. He's still younger than Jimenez too.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Folks.. Im not suggesting the Reds make that deal.. I'm saying I'd give that up for the chance at an Ace. We missed out on Lee last year and I want to see this team go for it. What are they doing with Heisey & Alonso? Ones on the bench and one is rotting away in AAA. Bailey has health issues. Grandel is proving he could be special. Leake is the prize in this offer. Reds get a Closer for next year, a nice bench bat who could share time with Rolen, or OF who has pop. Not to mention have someone who can lead this rotation for years to come with Cueto.

It was my opinion.. did I look at stats or research.. no. But as a fan who doesn't want to make a deal for the sake of making a deal but yet wants to see this team prove its stance and make an improvement to the team. Im in no means Krusty, Benihana, or schroomytunes .. i'm sorry. But don't be little me because I said that is what i'd give up to get a player.

[corkedbat]

May have missed this here, but I just saw Boster Olney on ESPN.

He says that many GMs out there said they thought the Rox were just throwing Jiminez's nae oout there to see if someone would offer up something totally outrageous. Several GMs have told him now that they believe the Rox are totally committed to moving him this year by the deadline.

Reason being that Colorado is more worried about the 2-3 mph drop on his fastball than they let on. They feel like they need to move him now while they may still get get a permium return, rather than receive litte at all a year from now.

The drop in velocity is the one reason I have been against going all-out for him. Love Ubaldo, but would hate to see a deal that would blow up in our face.

[mdccclxix]

May have missed this here, but I just saw Boster Olney on ESPN.

He says that many GMs out there said they thought the Rox were just throwing Jiminez's nae oout there to see if someone would offer up something totally outrageous. Several GMs have told him now that they believe the Rox are totally committed to moving him this year by the deadline.

Reason being that Colorado is more worried about the 2-3 mph drop on his fastball than they let on. They feel like they need to move him now while they may still get get a permium return, rather than receive litte at all a year from now.

The drop in velocity is the one reason I have been against going all-out for him. Love Ubaldo, but would hate to see a deal that would blow up in our face.

That is most plausible. I can't imagine the risk they're taking by giving up on 2+ years of Jiminez. In a similar vein, what would be a worthwhile return for Votto? Almost nothing could match his value to this franchise, it's just a PR nightmare to trade him...unless the Reds were to know more about their reasons why.

[Patrick Bateman]

Folks.. Im not suggesting the Reds make that deal..

Sorry, I guess I misunderstood "I'd offer xxxx for xxxxxx" as a trade that you supported.


What are they doing with Heisey & Alonso?

Well, in regards to Heisey, they are using him as a 300 at-bat OF'der whom has done fairly well in that role. It has some value and should be evaluated as such rather than being short changed.

In relation to Alonso, just because he doesn't have a clear role on the team doesn't mean he should be short changed either. Prospects of his kind are worth around 15M or so in projected future worth. He as well should be evaluated as such rather as a toss in to pay a premium on something that represents an opportunity cost in bypassing better overall value packages.



Bailey has health issues.

So does Street



It was my opinion.. did I look at stats or research.. no.

That's fine, just don't be defensive when someone does do some stats and research to the table. It's just my opinion too. If you don't want your ideas to be evaluated with a disagreement, perhaps consider putting some more research into your posts rather than bypassing it completely (as you mentioned) or else some people will disagree. Not a big deal.

Again, just my opinion, but it's hardto sway the other side of the discussion without bringing some facts to the table.

[757690]

Now we know why the Reds weren't interested in Beltran. #alonosinlf

[RedsManRick]

Call me crazy, but I don't think Ubaldo is a big step up from Bailey. Bailey has a FIP and xFIP under 4.00 over his last 200 innings. With Ubaldo you're getting better health (presumably) and more mental toughness/stability, but I'm not sure I'd pay a huge price for the upgrade. Make it Volquez and now you're talking.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Call me crazy, but I don't think Ubaldo is a big step up from Bailey. Bailey has a FIP and xFIP under 4.00 over his last 200 innings. With Ubaldo you're getting better health (presumably) and more mental toughness/stability, but I'm not sure I'd pay a huge price for the upgrade. Make it Volquez and now you're talking.

I agree with this. Homer looks to be on the way up while Ubaldo looks to be trending down.

[Mario-Rijo]

Based on the article, Volquez would be too much.

Based on that article Walt fleeced Sandy Alderson one other time (i.e. Mark McGwire). And as I said Beltran won't be dealt for anything big. Also It seems like the Reds could really get Beltran if they wanted to, he wants to stay in the NL, the Rangers are the strongest suitor and we have better prospects to deal than most other NL teams.

[Patrick Bateman]

Call me crazy, but I don't think Ubaldo is a big step up from Bailey. Bailey has a FIP and xFIP under 4.00 over his last 200 innings. With Ubaldo you're getting better health (presumably) and more mental toughness/stability, but I'm not sure I'd pay a huge price for the upgrade. Make it Volquez and now you're talking.

It depends on which Ubaldo we are getting.

Although his xFIP has not changed much, the competition (hitting) has gotten weaker meaning that Ubaldo is actually having a worse season in every way possible.

This year's version of Ubaldo is still an upgrade as Bailey's peripherals although reasonable have not been earth shattering especially when it comes to the K's. If the deal is Homer + a few spare parts, it's a good trade, even if Ubaldo doesn't get back to his prior year levels.

But I agree, the reports about his declining velocity make me think twice if the best from Ubaldo is in the past, especially considering that the Rockies appear to be shopping him agressively. They wouldn't do that if they thought he would rebound and they have more info. about him than anyone.

I wouldn't view Ubaldo as an elite option, and I would be dissapointed if he was the guy that we moved premium prospects for, especially considering that our playoffs odds per BP are only about 10% right, probably not the time to be paying a premium for a big starter.

[edabbs44]

I agree with this. Homer looks to be on the way up while Ubaldo looks to be trending down.

Until Homer feels another twinge somewhere.

[HokieRed]

I wouldn't trade Bailey straight up for Ubaldo (and I like the latter). In fact, there's one player on the Reds whose upside is such that I wouldn't trade him, period--Bailey.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Until Homer feels another twinge somewhere.

Every pitcher is a tweek away from the DL. Thus far we haven't seen anything major for Bailey. I'd hardly call him injury prone if that's what some are thinking.

[Brutus]

I wouldn't trade Bailey straight up for Ubaldo (and I like the latter). In fact, there's one player on the Reds whose upside is such that I wouldn't trade him, period--Bailey.

Ubaldo is only 26 years old with a career FIP of nearly a run better than Homer.

I like Homer a lot, no question... but straight up is hard to deny that Ubaldo is clearly a better pitcher. And he's still on the younger side of prime himself.

[edabbs44]

Every pitcher is a tweek away from the DL. Thus far we haven't seen anything major for Bailey. I'd hardly call him injury prone if that's what some are thinking.

He's not a stranger to the DL. If Bailey ended up being Ubaldo over the next few years, wouldn't that be a win?

[mth123]

Every pitcher is a tweek away from the DL. Thus far we haven't seen anything major for Bailey. I'd hardly call him injury prone if that's what some are thinking.

DL with shoulder woes 3 tines in a year. One time he missed 90 days another nearly 2 months. Just what do you call serious?

[_Sir_Charles_]

DL with shoulder woes 3 tines in a year. One time he missed 90 days another nearly 2 months. Just what do you call serious?

I call it being cautious. Especially when we had an overly packed rotation at the time. Giving Homer extra time allowed the Reds to see what the other guys had at the same time.

Neither has required surgery. That's what I'd consider serious. Inflammation and swelling and soreness...That calls for caution and patience. Is it worrisome? Sure. But hardly a chronic problem IMO.

[HokieRed]

Ubaldo is only 26 years old with a career FIP of nearly a run better than Homer.

I like Homer a lot, no question... but straight up is hard to deny that Ubaldo is clearly a better pitcher. And he's still on the younger side of prime himself.

Ubaldo's 27 and a half and nearly two and a half years older than Homer.

[mth123]

I call it being cautious. Especially when we had an overly packed rotation at the time. Giving Homer extra time allowed the Reds to see what the other guys had at the same time.

Neither has required surgery. That's what I'd consider serious. Inflammation and swelling and soreness...That calls for caution and patience. Is it worrisome? Sure. But hardly a chronic problem IMO.

Then why 3 times if not chronic or a warning of something bigger bubbling below.

[Brutus]

Ubaldo's 27 and a half and nearly two and a half years older than Homer.

It's 2 years and 3 months, hardly a half year. But that's really nitpicking.

Point is, Ubaldo isn't exactly old either. He's clearly been better than Homer by a longshot. I'll take the proven commodity over the guy that has shown flashes but hasn't put it all together and has made frequent trips to the DL.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Then why 3 times if not chronic or a warning of something bigger bubbling below.

I don't know. But neither do you. From the reports, they've said that none of the 3 things were in the same place and were all unrelated. Shoulder yes, but different things and parts. It could just be bad luck or Homer pushing himself to come back too soon regardless of the team's caution. Who knows. But there haven't been any tears, strains or anything remotely close to something requiring surgery.

[mth123]

I don't know. But neither do you. From the reports, they've said that none of the 3 things were in the same place and were all unrelated. Shoulder yes, but different things and parts. It could just be bad luck or Homer pushing himself to come back too soon regardless of the team's caution. Who knows. But there haven't been any tears, strains or anything remotely close to something requiring surgery.

Hope you're right. I think Homer is the team's best arm, but if I had the chance to unload him for Ubaldo straight up as has been debated here, I'd say bye to Homer and be happy that some body else is taking that history off my hands for full value.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Hope you're right. I think Homer is the team's best arm, but if I had the chance to unload him for Ubaldo straight up as has been debated here, I'd say bye to Homer and be happy that some body else is taking that history off my hands for full value.

I wasn't disagreeing with the straight up deal. That I'd do...but I'd be kinda down about it. I'd really prefer we deal someone OTHER than Homer for Ubaldo if that's who we really go after. (personally I think we need a bat though).

[edabbs44]

I don't know. But neither do you. From the reports, they've said that none of the 3 things were in the same place and were all unrelated. Shoulder yes, but different things and parts. It could just be bad luck or Homer pushing himself to come back too soon regardless of the team's caution. Who knows. But there haven't been any tears, strains or anything remotely close to something requiring surgery.

Rich Harden is similar. Often hurt, never injured.

[Patrick Bateman]

I wasn't disagreeing with the straight up deal. That I'd do...but I'd be kinda down about it. I'd really prefer we deal someone OTHER than Homer for Ubaldo if that's who we really go after. (personally I think we need a bat though).

I personally think that something like:

Grandal, Volquez/Wood, Francicso and Boxberger for Jimenez and Stewart could work for both sides.

[HokieRed]

I wasn't disagreeing with the straight up deal. That I'd do...but I'd be kinda down about it. I'd really prefer we deal someone OTHER than Homer for Ubaldo if that's who we really go after. (personally I think we need a bat though).

Let's put it this way. This team is not going to get better by trading Homer Bailey. If the GM thinks that's the way to get better, we need a new GM. (And I'd probably also put Devin Mesoraco in this category, as I put Josh Hamilton in it several years ago. There's a certain quality of talent it just does not make sense to trade.)

[_Sir_Charles_]

Let's put it this way. This team is not going to get better by trading Homer Bailey. If the GM thinks that's the way to get better, we need a new GM. (And I'd probably also put Devin Mesoraco in this category, as I put Josh Hamilton in it several years ago. There's a certain quality of talent it just does not make sense to trade.)

Yep. I want to keep Cueto, Homer & Leake as far as starting pitchers go. If they finally decide to end the Chapman/Reliever experiment, then he's a 4th I want to keep.

[HokieRed]

Yep. I want to keep Cueto, Homer & Leake as far as starting pitchers go. If they finally decide to end the Chapman/Reliever experiment, then he's a 4th I want to keep.

No question. As I've said before, the first move WJ should make is to start stretching Chapman out for the rotation.

[nemesis]

No question. As I've said before, the first move WJ should make is to start stretching Chapman out for the rotation.

+1

Ubaldo
Cueto
Leake
Homer
Chapman

would look awful nice side by side for at least 2 years.

[757690]

Looks like the price for Jimenez is too high.

From Thomas Harding of MLB.com


Even though the Major Leagues' two highest-profile franchises are making calls, it appears things are further along with the Reds. Word in the industry is the Rockies require starting pitchers Travis Wood and Homer Bailey, plus one of two young stars -- flame-throwing left-handed pitcher Aroldis Chapman or top catching prospect Devin Mesoraco, currently at Triple-A Louisville.

[CrackerJack]

Looks like the price for Jimenez is too high.

From Thomas Harding of MLB.com

Yep, heard that on the radio tonight - not going to happen...

[JaxRed]

Thank goodness, what a bad trade that would be

[RedLegSuperStar]

Homer, Wood, and Mesoraco .. No

Homer, Wood, Heisey, and Grandel .. Yes

[HotCorner]

Interesting ...



@hankschulman
Henry Schulman

It's been made clear to me that the Reds want to keep their catching tandem intact. Ramon Hernandez is not on the block.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Interesting ...

Regardless of a deal.. It will most likely be final hour deal. Wake me up Sunday

[HokieRed]

Frankly, as much as I like Jimenez, I hope it doesn't go down. They are in a such a strong position, they are going to get more than he's worth.

[Kc61]

My latest thinking (guessing) is that the Reds are going to use Alonso/Heisey in LF as a trial and will NOT trade for a LF. Instead the Reds will go all out to get a pitcher.

I think today's trade to make room for Yonder is a "give up" on a LF trade. Reds will continue to pursue a pitcher.

Or maybe not.

[corkedbat]

Suck it Rox! You're only dealing him him because you think he's probably damaged goods. I was willing to give up Homer,Wood, Volquez or Leake before - Bailey and Leake just came off the table. Walt needs to burn if he offers Mes or Chapman in this deal. Heck, chances are Bailey and Leake will both be his equal by this time next year and cost np talent.

If you think damaged pitchers are that valuable, just send us Tutlowski straight up for Volquez.

I hope to God Walt doen't return another call! Then again, from the sound of things he probably should never have picked up the phone in the first place. If that is their demand and they won't back WAY the heck off of it then he better walk away! :angry:

[corkedbat]

IF I dealt either Mes or Chapman for Jiminez, they would have tothrow in a pretty valuable extra piece. With the questions around him he's not even their equal.

There have been several top guys dealt of the past through years that were better than Jiminez and they didn't briing three or four to guys - maybe a top guy and two of three in the next tier which is about what I would offer (with Mes, Grandal and Chpman out of the equation).

[PuffyPig]

Regardless of a deal.. It will most likely be final hour deal. Wake me up Sunday

Yikes, you must go to bed early, considering the trade deadline is 4:00 PM EST.

[PuffyPig]

Homer, Wood, and Mesoraco .. No

Homer, Wood, Heisey, and Grandel .. Yes

That would be a horrible deal for 2 years, 2 months of Jimenez.

A ton of cost control talent for many years to give up for less than a sure thing.

And quite bit less than the Phillies gave up for Holliday. 2 years of Marcum was traded for 1 premium prospect. The difference between Marcum and Jimenez (if there even is any) is certainly not Homer, Wood and Grandal. That's more than double the cost.

[I(heart)Freel]

Interesting ...

Thom and Chris noted on the broadcast last night that two SF scouts were in attendance, presumably watching Ramon. I love the Razor, but the Reds have to get something for him when he's not in the 2012 plans and Mes is conceivably ready.

[Caveat Emperor]

Thom and Chris noted on the broadcast last night that two SF scouts were in attendance, presumably watching Ramon. I love the Razor, but the Reds have to get something for him when he's not in the 2012 plans and Mes is conceivably ready.

Especially considering the Reds are unlikely to risk offering arbitration to Ramon in order to get the compensatory pick when he walks.

[LoganBuck]

Thom and Chris noted on the broadcast last night that two SF scouts were in attendance, presumably watching Ramon. I love the Razor, but the Reds have to get something for him when he's not in the 2012 plans and Mes is conceivably ready.

Sf watching Beltran

[Homer Bailey]

#Reds telling teams that two of their prospects are untouchable: C Devin Mesoraco and IF Billy Hamilton. #tradedeadline #MLB

-Ken Rosenthal

[I(heart)Freel]

Sf watching Beltran

Maybe that's why they sent TWO scouts. ;)

[pahster]

-Ken Rosenthal

I get Mesoraco to an extent, but Hamilton? Really? His OBP is atrocious and even if it wasn't he's still several years away from contributing at the major league level.

[signalhome]

I get Mesoraco to an extent, but Hamilton? Really? His OBP is atrocious and even if it wasn't he's still several years away from contributing at the major league level.

Yeah I'm also unsure of why Hamilton is untouchable. He still has a long way to go.

[Benihana]

I don't get Hamilton being untouchable either. I'd trade him in a second for a guy like Ubaldo.

I think the guy the Reds end up with is Jeremy Guthrie. I don't know why, just a feeling at this point.

[MasonBuzz3]

Maybe Walt is leaking that Hamilton is untouchable to drive up the perceived value of Hamilton

[Benihana]

Here's an out-of-the-box idea/target: Aramis Ramirez

While it's unlikely the Reds and the Cubs could hook up for an intra-division deal, A-Ram could provide the middle-of-the-order RH bat between Votto and Bruce. While he does make a chunk of change, he is a FA after the year and would likely yield Type B compensation. Assuming Rolen can't contribute the next two months, I'd be interested. Jim Hendry isn't the sharpest dealer around.

Cubs seem to love versatile guys like Todd Frazier. Could a Frazier-Boxberger package fetch two months of A-Ram (and possible draft pick compensation afterward)?

[RollyInRaleigh]

Maybe Walt is leaking that Hamilton is untouchable to drive up the perceived value of Hamilton

That would be my thought as well.

[Mario-Rijo]

Here's an out-of-the-box idea/target: Aramis Ramirez

While it's unlikely the Reds and the Cubs could hook up for an intra-division deal, A-Ram could provide the middle-of-the-order RH bat between Votto and Bruce. While he does make a chunk of change, he is a FA after the year and would likely yield Type B compensation. Assuming Rolen can't contribute the next two months, I'd be interested. Jim Hendry isn't the sharpest dealer around.

Cubs seem to love versatile guys like Todd Frazier. Could a Frazier-Boxberger package fetch two months of A-Ram (and possible draft pick compensation afterward)?

No because Aramis says he won't waive his no trade clause, he is staying put. One heck of a winner that guy is. :confused:

[wolfboy]

I don't get Hamilton being untouchable either. I'd trade him in a second for a guy like Ubaldo.

I think the guy the Reds end up with is Jeremy Guthrie. I don't know why, just a feeling at this point.

Guthrie is a step backward IMHO. His career FIP is underwhelming at best and he doesn't miss a lot of bats. Couple that with the fact that he's been a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher this year, and I think this has disaster written all over it.

[Danny Serafini]

Maybe Walt is leaking that Hamilton is untouchable to drive up the perceived value of Hamilton

First thing that popped into my head when I read that.

[757690]

I get Mesoraco to an extent, but Hamilton? Really? His OBP is atrocious and even if it wasn't he's still several years away from contributing at the major league level.

Anyone who has seen Hamilton play understands why he could be considered untouchable. Just an incredible overall athlete with what seems to be a very strong work ethic. Not sure I would put him on my untouchable list, but I understand why someone else would.

[PuffyPig]

Baseball America ranked Hamilton ahead of Mess coming into the season, along with every other one of our propsects not named Chapman.

So it's not just Reds management who feel he's a special talent.

I think anytime you get a potential SS who has some offensive ability (even if that potential is built largely around speed), scouts sit up and take notice.

I'm not sure if he will hit either, but lots of folks are enamoured with Hamilton.

[Benihana]

Guthrie is a step backward IMHO. His career FIP is underwhelming at best and he doesn't miss a lot of bats. Couple that with the fact that he's been a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher this year, and I think this has disaster written all over it.

He wouldn't be my first choice either, but I can just envision the Reds saying the price was too high for Jimenez and "we had to make a move". Again just a feeling- nothing more, I could of course be totally wrong.

[signalhome]

Baseball America ranked Hamilton ahead of Mess coming into the season, along with every other one of our propsects not named Chapman.

So it's not just Reds management who feel he's a special talent.

I think anytime you get a potential SS who has some offensive ability (even if that potential is built largely around speed), scouts sit up and take notice.

I'm not sure if he will hit either, but lots of folks are enamoured with Hamilton.

It's just really hard for me to consider a guy untouchable when he's still really far down in the minors, with a long way to go before he makes it to the show. I'm not going to be simply tossing him in a deal as an add-on, as there's no denying his great potential, but I also would in no way consider him untouchable. If the Rockies wanted to deal me Jimenez for a package centered around Hamilton, I would most certainly be listening.

[bucksfan2]

Here's an out-of-the-box idea/target: Aramis Ramirez

While it's unlikely the Reds and the Cubs could hook up for an intra-division deal, A-Ram could provide the middle-of-the-order RH bat between Votto and Bruce. While he does make a chunk of change, he is a FA after the year and would likely yield Type B compensation. Assuming Rolen can't contribute the next two months, I'd be interested. Jim Hendry isn't the sharpest dealer around.

Cubs seem to love versatile guys like Todd Frazier. Could a Frazier-Boxberger package fetch two months of A-Ram (and possible draft pick compensation afterward)?

I would much rather see the Reds target Marlon Byrd from the Cubs. I like his overall game and he would be a nice upgrade in LF from what they currently have. He is controlled for another year (?) and wouldn't break the bank.

[wolfboy]

He wouldn't be my first choice either, but I can just envision the Reds saying the price was too high for Jimenez and "we had to make a move". Again just a feeling- nothing more, I could of course be totally wrong.

I hope that's not the case.

[757690]

I would much rather see the Reds target Marlon Byrd from the Cubs. I like his overall game and he would be a nice upgrade in LF from what they currently have. He is controlled for another year (?) and wouldn't break the bank.

Like this idea a lot. I wonder why we haven't heard Byrd's name in trade rumors.

[pahster]

Baseball America ranked Hamilton ahead of Mess coming into the season, along with every other one of our propsects not named Chapman.

So it's not just Reds management who feel he's a special talent.

I think anytime you get a potential SS who has some offensive ability (even if that potential is built largely around speed), scouts sit up and take notice.

I'm not sure if he will hit either, but lots of folks are enamoured with Hamilton.

Are we sure he's going to field? I'm not one for "traditional" fielding metrics, but 29 errors in 94 games played in the field is an awful lot. His on base skills don't appear to be particularly impressive. Even if he does improve (not out of the question given his age), he looks to be, what, four years away from the majors? That's pretty far away and we're assuming a lot of positive development. I'm not comfortable with that. Doesn't mean I think the Reds must trade him; I just don't quite understand why he would be a deal breaker.

[PuffyPig]

Like this idea a lot. I wonder why we haven't heard Byrd's name in trade rumors.


His inability to maintain an .800 OPS might be one reason.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Are we sure he's going to field? I'm not one for "traditional" fielding metrics, but 29 errors in 94 games played in the field is an awful lot. His on base skills don't appear to be particularly impressive. Even if he does improve (not out of the question given his age), he looks to be, what, four years away from the majors? That's pretty far away and we're assuming a lot of positive development. I'm not comfortable with that. Doesn't mean I think the Reds must trade him; I just don't quite understand why he would be a deal breaker.

I agree that he shouldn't be "untouchable" but from what I've read, he's cut down on the errors considerably and he's improved at the plate as well since early in the season. I'm sure some of the minor league guys could elaborate but I'm pretty sure that's what I've read.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Athletes don't always turn into baseball players.

[OnBaseMachine]

This hasn't been posted yet? From ESPN:


But an official of one other club believes "the team [the Rockies] really want to do this deal with is Cincinnati, because they've got the young starting pitching to give back. So I think that's where this is going."




So for the Yankees, that would mean Ivan Nova -- plus two or three jewels from their system. For the Reds, it would mean Homer Bailey or Travis Wood -- plus the cream of that prospect pool (though one source adamantly denied reports that either Aroldis Chapman or catching stud Devin Mesoraco would be part of this package).

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110727/colorado-rockies-shopping-ace-ubaldojimenez

[Edd Roush]

This hasn't been posted yet? From ESPN:





http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110727/colorado-rockies-shopping-ace-ubaldojimenez

I haven't seen that rumor yet, OBM. I would not mind trading Wood+ anything in the minors not named Mesoraco) for Ubaldo. Granted, I wouldn't want to give up too many prospects, but if Alonso and Mes aren't involved, I think I would go Wood + 4 good prospects for Ubaldo.

[IslandRed]

I just read that one too. I know Colorado has a really good catching prospect themselves, so in the end, Mesoraco might not be the deal-breaker. The pitchers they want might be -- my pure guess is that, at minimum, Chapman or Bailey has to be involved or no deal. I would like to be wrong.

[Tom Servo]

I'd rather give up Wood than Bailey, I think.

[kaldaniels]

If Wood is the centerpiece I'm salivating.

[IslandRed]

In other news, reports are that the Giants are about to get Beltran.

[OldXOhio]

In other news, reports are that the Giants are about to get Beltran.

Sweet, we'll dodge him for the remaining 2 games of this Mets series and won't have to....

oh yeah, nevermind.

[757690]

In other news, reports are that the Giants are about to get Beltran.

Supposedly for this guy and two others. Wow, that's way more than I would have wanted the Reds to give up for Beltran.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=brown-005gar

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

In other news, reports are that the Giants are about to get Beltran.

Beltran could end up spending the entire week in Cincinnati. He may want to look into renting an apartment ...

And since it looks like the Giants are going all in to repeat this year, perhaps they'll part with more for Ramon. Eric Surkamp, maybe?

[757690]

Supposedly for this guy and two others. Wow, that's way more than I would have wanted the Reds to give up for Beltran.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=brown-005gar

Now it's reported it could be this guy instead, which is an even more impressive haul for the Mets.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wheele001zac

[LvJ]

Gary Brown and Zack Wheeler for Beltran? That's pretty darn good.

Wish the Reds would see what they could get for Ramon.

[SirFelixCat]

Call me crazy, but I don't think Ubaldo is a big step up from Bailey. Bailey has a FIP and xFIP under 4.00 over his last 200 innings. With Ubaldo you're getting better health (presumably) and more mental toughness/stability, but I'm not sure I'd pay a huge price for the upgrade. Make it Volquez and now you're talking.

This is how I'm feeling right now. If Bailey is healthy (and that's a legit question, for sure) I don't think it's a huge upgrade to Jimenez.

I'd be willing to trade something like Grandal, Wood (or Leake), and Heisey for Jimenez, but not a ton more, really.

And the key to this is an uber thorough exam of Jimenez prior to the trade.

[LvJ]

This is how I'm feeling right now. If Bailey is healthy (and that's a legit question, for sure) I don't think it's a huge upgrade to Jimenez.

I'd be willing to trade something like Grandal, Wood (or Leake), and Heisey for Jimenez, but not a ton more, really.

And the key to this is an uber thorough exam of Jimenez prior to the trade.

I don't think trading Bailey for Jiminez is an upgrade and would be a very big mistake, IMO.

I like your package. Wood, Grandal and Heisey would be ideal.

[RBA]

Next Red to be traded: Scott Rolen. Just because the Reds have a Scott Rolen jersey promotion on July 30. ;)

[HotCorner]

@AdamRubinESPN
Adam Rubin
I'm told to pay attention to two Giants prospect names: LHP Eric Surkamp and OF Francisco Peguero. Not positive in deal, though.


Wow. If true the Mets got a great haul for Beltran.

[klw]

If the Giants get Beltran I would figure it would lessen their need for Ramon as they might be able to better hide weak offensive production from the catcher. It could lower what the Reds might fetch for him if they did make him available.

[LoganBuck]

Of coarse if the Giants were to add Beltran AND Ramon it would give their offense a massive boost.

[HotCorner]

The Braves could be in the market now for a catcher like Ramon with the loss of McCann and now losing out on Beltran.

[Mario-Rijo]

Wow. If true the Mets got a great haul for Beltran.

The Giants may need Beltran pretty bad but there is no way they come off those 4 players if that is what is being suggested. Maybe they get one of those guys, perhaps they even get 2 (though I can't imagine why) but they certainly won't get more than that.

[HotCorner]

The Giants may need Beltran pretty bad but there is no way they come off those 4 players if that is what is being suggested. Maybe they get one of those guys, perhaps they even get 2 (though I can't imagine why) but they certainly won't get more than that.

This appears to be correct.



AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Scratch the two names I put out -- Surkamp and Peguero. Earlier incarnations of deal.

[WrongVerb]

Of coarse if the Giants were to add Beltran AND Ramon it would give their offense a massive boost.

Still would love to see Ramon for Adam Duvall

[Mario-Rijo]

This appears to be correct.

According to the Beltran for free thread it's looking like Wheeler and cash which the Mets should be ecstatic they could get that much.

[HotCorner]

Hmm ....



Ken_Rosenthal

Source: #Rockies do not require #Reds untouchables Mesoraco, Hamilton in trade for Jimenez. Would need other big pieces, though. #MLB

[mdccclxix]

So far it appears Beltran and Rasmus have come off the board for less than people thought. Isn't this typical of the deadline? Players are bandied about for high prices and in the end they are sold for less. Perhaps Walt works out a deal for Ubaldo or Shields or whoever for less than has been spoken of. That said, this isn't like the 2009 deadline when Walt wanted a piece to help finish strong to head into next year (Rolen). I think the right thing would be to continue with the Alonso, Cozart promotion approach. Bring up Mez and Sappelt as well. Those are the players who factor in next year. Perhaps refocus on an ace in the winter. If not, no harm in
Cueto
Bailey
Leake
Chapman
Arroyo

Wood/Willis/Volquez

next year.

[Caveat Emperor]

Hmm ....

Grandal + Wood as the centerpiece of the deal, make it happen.

Grandal + Bailey as the centerpiece of the deal, tell Ubaldo to take up skiing.

[LoganBuck]

Hmm ....

I am inclined to offer Stubbs, Wood, plus chaff and see where that goes.

[WrongVerb]

Still I'm not getting why Hamilton is an untouchable here. Yes he projects to be a very nice player, but there's no guarantee on anyone when they're in A-ball, no matter how they're doing. If Wood + Hamilton would get it done, sign me up.

[dunner13]

I think the rockies are going to want back at least two starting pitchers plus a couple of other players, so I'm thinking wood and a minor league pitcher. Anyone know what minor league pitchers would have some decent trade value, I know we have Lotzkar, maybe Boxberger?

[guttle11]

Still I'm not getting why Hamilton is an untouchable here. Yes he projects to be a very nice player, but there's no guarantee on anyone when they're in A-ball, no matter how they're doing. If Wood + Hamilton would get it done, sign me up.

With no sure fire SS in the pipeline, you want to hang on to Hamilton for a while. Take the gamble that he'll work out and either contribute in the big leagues in a few years or be a huge trading piece should Cozart turn out to be the real deal at short (I think he's Phillips replacement at 2B long term myself). Trade him now and you're selling low, well before anyone thinks he's even scratching the surface of his true potential. Grandal is more expendable because Mesoraco and Hanigan will cover the catcher spot for the foreseeable future, and if Alonso sticks around, you can turn Grandal into a piece that fills a need, like SP.

If the Reds can get Ubaldo for Grandal and Wood plus a lesser piece, I'd do it yesterday. A rotation of Cueto, Jimenez, Leake, Bailey, and Chapman/whoever looks awfully strong for the next couple of seasons.

[LvJ]

The Cubs are trying to unload Z on the Yankees and they simply said no thanks. :laugh:

[Mario-Rijo]

I am inclined to offer Stubbs, Wood, plus chaff and see where that goes.

Why offer Stubbs if you don't really have to? I just about bet they can get him for Wood/Bailey, Grandal & somebody like Boxberger or Joseph which is a good haul but not a package that is really gonna hurt us at all. Sure I wish they would take Volquez instead of Wood or Bailey but hey it's still a good deal. I would never do this deal with Stubbs unless we are talking straight up or with chaff.

[Rojo]

Grandal + Bailey as the centerpiece of the deal, tell Ubaldo to take up skiing.

I'd still think about it. UJ's crossed a threshold that Bailey hasn't yet and might not.

Wood's a slam dunk. And I seem to recall that soft-tossing lefties do well at Coors.

[Kc61]

How about Grandal, Wood, and Volquez?

Possibly V is too close to arbitration.

Then Grandal, Wood, and Boxberger?

Possibly they don't want a reliever.

Then Grandal, Wood, and Corcino. I'd do that one.

Possibly they don't want Grandal.

Then Wood, Corcino, and Alonso/Soto (either)?

Reds may want to try Alonso in LF for awhile.

Then Wood, Corcino, Soto?

Then Rocks may want a bit more. Fourth guy?

Wood, Corcino, Soto, and Sappelt?

[IslandRed]

Still I'm not getting why Hamilton is an untouchable here. Yes he projects to be a very nice player, but there's no guarantee on anyone when they're in A-ball, no matter how they're doing. If Wood + Hamilton would get it done, sign me up.

I look at it like this...

Group A = Prospects who are considered potential major-league stars

Group B = Actual major-league stars

Not a lot of guys from Group A make it to Group B. There's a high attrition rate.

While there are exceptions, Group B guys almost always come from Group A.

Even though any given Group A guy probably won't pan out, a team can't deal them all off or they won't have anyone in Group B that's home-grown down the road. The extent to which they should care about this is related to how many Group B guys they can afford to buy as free agents. The Reds usually can't win the bidding wars on those guys, so...

This is a tough one, though, because the established guy we're trading for is in Group B and isn't a rental. There may be some posturing involved. Don't know.

[Rojo]

Still I'm not getting why Hamilton is an untouchable here.

The lack of up-the-middle players has been almost as a big an issue for the Reds as pitching.

[REDREAD]

I'd hate to see Homer leave. I really believe he's ready to take that next big step. Chapman...a year ago I would've immediately said "no way!". But now...it's starting to look to me that they'll never transition Aroldis into a starter, and if that's the case...sure, deal away. Because that's too much money for a young, mostly unproven bullpen arm.

With Homer's injury cloud hanging over him, I think I'd rather deal Homer than Chapman.

I guess I feel that if Chapman stays in the pen, he'll be the next Billy Wagner.. That's worth it, IMO. Now that his control has been better, he's been dominating. Of course, if they make him a starter, that's fine too.

[Caveat Emperor]

I'd still think about it. UJ's crossed a threshold that Bailey hasn't yet and might not.

Homer's trending upward, while the Rockies are mysteriously cutting and running on an arm that's allegedly TOR and signed to team-friendly terms for 3 more years. Even Tampa thought better of trading James Shields, and they're more cash-strapped than the Rockies.

My gut tells me something is fishy about Ubaldo.

[Benihana]

Grandal + Wood as the centerpiece of the deal, make it happen.

Grandal + Bailey as the centerpiece of the deal, tell Ubaldo to take up skiing.

This.

Even better, I'd love Wood + Volquez as the centerpiece (if the Rox are comfortable with Castillo behind the dish). My concern and feared reality is that the Rox are insisting on either Bailey or Chapman being included. Even Leake would make me a little hesitant.

On a brighter note, I'm starting to believe for the first time a Jimenez deal might actually get done.

[corkedbat]

Wow. If true the Mets got a great haul for Beltran.

Massive for a rental, if true. If the Reds had the Giants pitching staff I would have been more open to a rental.

[Brutus]

Homer's trending upward, while the Rockies are mysteriously cutting and running on an arm that's allegedly TOR and signed to team-friendly terms for 3 more years. Even Tampa thought better of trading James Shields, and they're more cash-strapped than the Rockies.

My gut tells me something is fishy about Ubaldo.

I get the impression there's nothing fishy. But like everyone, the Rockies saw the dip in velocity and they're trying to sell off a stock while they know the value is still high. We can't know for certain a stock is going to plummet, but they realize there's always the possibility that it could, so they're wisely maximizing their return.

I really think that's all there is to it. Ubaldo is pitching pretty well lately. His strikeouts haven't suffered one iota. Reportedly his velocity is doing better here recently. I just think it's the Rockies playing the stock market with him.

[OnBaseMachine]

From Ken Rosenthal:

Source: #Reds targeting Shields over Jimenez. #tradedeadline #MLB

Still unlikely #Rays trade Shields. But #Reds are deep enough in prospects that they at least stand a chance. #tradedeadline #MLB

http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

[Brutus]

From Ken Rosenthal:

Source: #Reds targeting Shields over Jimenez. #tradedeadline #MLB

Still unlikely #Rays trade Shields. But #Reds are deep enough in prospects that they at least stand a chance. #tradedeadline #MLB

http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

This potentially could be a ploy by the Reds to help leverage their deal with the Rockies. They may well prefer Shields, mind you, but they could gain something in talks by having Shields as a preferential target.

[RedLegSuperStar]

I'd prefer Hernandez over Jimenez.. but when a team says they are not trading a player.. I tend to believe they aren't trading the player.

[aubashbrother]

The Reds and Rays add up so well for a trade. I'd much rather have Shields than Ubaldo

[RedLegSuperStar]

This potentially could be a ploy by the Reds to help leverage their deal with the Rockies. They may well prefer Shields, mind you, but they could gain something in talks by having Shields as a preferential target.

I agree with Brutus.. Rockies are saying a deal doesn't have to include Chapman or Mesoraco so I don't see the issue. We know they like Bailey, Wood, and Heisey. Start there..

[Benihana]

From Ken Rosenthal:

Source: #Reds targeting Shields over Jimenez. #tradedeadline #MLB

Still unlikely #Rays trade Shields. But #Reds are deep enough in prospects that they at least stand a chance. #tradedeadline #MLB

http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal


Sounds like posturing to me. Hopefully the Rox bite. Or hopefully it's true. Either way, as long as something gets done I'll be happy.

[Patrick Bateman]

Sounds like posturing to me. Hopefully the Rox bite. Or hopefully it's true. Either way, as long as something gets done I'll be happy.

I still don't get this thought process.

We are 5 games back, and ANYTHING would improve the team? Our playoff odds are less than 10%.

What if the Rockies are really going to hold out for Mes and Chapman or somehting insane?

I'm totally fine not doing anything IF there are no deals out there that help the long term outlook of the team.

If Shields can be had for reasonable value, fine,if he's not that, then forcing the issue is only going to lead to further problems down the road.

[Rojo]

My gut tells me something is fishy about Ubaldo.

Well, that's different. If I smelled something fishy, I might be reluctant to part with anyone.

[Benihana]

This potentially could be a ploy by the Reds to help leverage their deal with the Rockies. They may well prefer Shields, mind you, but they could gain something in talks by having Shields as a preferential target.


Brutus you beat me to it. I also have a sneaking suspicion that the Reds may now want to hold onto Alonso for LF, so the Rays may no longer necessarily match up better than the Rox- especially if what the Rox want is quantity of arms.

[Benihana]

I still don't get this thought process.

We are 5 games back, and ANYTHING would improve the team? Our playoff odds are less than 10%.

What if the Rockies are really going to hold out for Mes and Chapman or somehting insane?

I'm totally fine not doing anything IF there are no deals out there that help the long term outlook of the team.

If Shields can be had for reasonable value, fine,if he's not that, then forcing the issue is only going to lead to further problems down the road.

Getting Jimenez or Shields could have nothing to do with this year. They'd be under team control for at least two more seasons, so who cares if the Reds are 5 games back? Yet, at the same time, assuming the Reds don't trade a major piece of the big club (Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Cueto, etc.) which I don't believe they will, they still will have the potential to compete this year.

There are always deals out there that improve the team. Reds have been using your logic for the last 2 years, yet the Brewers managed to get Marcum and Greinke, and the Cardinals managed to get Holliday. In the AL, the Mariners and the Rangers both managed to trade for Cliff Lee, while the D-backs and the Angels have both traded for Dan Haren. So what do you mean there are no deals to be had? The key is going out and finding them.

If you believe Rosenthal, the Rockies are not insisting on Mesoraco or Chapman, let alone both of them. So please explain to me what logic you don't get?

[fisch11]

I'd prefer Hernandez over Jimenez.. but when a team says they are not trading a player.. I tend to believe they aren't trading the player.

If I recall correctly, the Cardinals said that Rasmus was not on the block this week. You see how that worked out.

[RedLegSuperStar]

If I recall correctly, the Cardinals said that Rasmus was not on the block this week. You see how that worked out.

They also said to the media that he didn't listen.. how soon after that did a deal get done?

[Patrick Bateman]

Getting Jimenez or Shields could have nothing to do with this year. They'd be under team control for at least two more seasons, so who cares if the Reds are 5 games back? Yet, at the same time, assuming the Reds don't trade a major piece of the big club (Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Cueto, etc.) which I don't believe they will, they still will have the potential to compete this year.

There are always deals out there that improve the team. Reds have been using your logic for the last 2 years, yet the Brewers managed to get Marcum and Greinke, and the Cardinals managed to get Holliday. In the AL, the Mariners and the Rangers both managed to trade for Cliff Lee, while the D-backs and the Angels have both traded for Dan Haren. So what do you mean there are no deals to be had? The key is going out and finding them.

If you believe Rosenthal, the Rockies are not insisting on Mesoraco or Chapman, let alone both of them. So please explain to me what logic you don't get?

The part where besides the two speculated names, we know about nothing.
So the do ANYTHING mentality could wind us up in a Colby Rasmus (from the Cards angle) type of move.

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

If I recall correctly, the Cardinals said that Rasmus was not on the block this week. You see how that worked out.

And it was yesterday afternoon that Walt said they weren't close to any deal, just hours before Jonny Gomes was shipped off to DC.

[LvJ]

The part where besides the two speculated names, we know about nothing.
So the do ANYTHING mentality could wind us up in a Colby Rasmus (from the Cards angle) type of move.

Yeah, let's not do ANYTHING - but go out and get Ubaldo or Shields for the next few years please.

Also. Trade Ramon.

[mace]

Even if the Reds don't make a run at the division, there could be value for the current year in acquiring a headliner. I think they demonstrated that with Rolen. He changed both the culture and the expectations of the ballclub in his first half-season here. Plus, there's the factor of fan interest. If the Reds make no deal and continue to flounder, the crowds will suffer materially. A show of good faith will go a long way in engaging the fans. Extra attendance means extra revenue. Such a move would also pay off during the offseason, when season tickets are bought. And of course, revenue means flexibility in acquiring talent.

[757690]

Our playoff odds are less than 10%.

That's only because it's a four team race right now. If the Reds are in contention and one of these teams falls out of the race, it's more like 25% amd if two fall out, it's more like 40%.

[Edd Roush]

Grandal + Wood as the centerpiece of the deal, make it happen.

Grandal + Bailey as the centerpiece of the deal, tell Ubaldo to take up skiing.

Seconded. And I believe that Grandal/Wood would be a decent haul for Ubaldo considering some of the low-minor depth we can also offer the Rockies.

[Patrick Bateman]

That's only because it's a four team race right now. If the Reds are in contention and one of these teams falls out of the race, it's more like 25% amd if two fall out, it's more like 40%.

I don't understand your point.
Our odds RIGHT now are 10%.
Obviously that could change for the better or worse depending on how the Reds perform. Because it's a 4 team race, it will be very difficult, because even if the Reds get hot, it's likely another team that is already 4-5 games ahead of that we wont gain any ground on.

As of right now, I don't think priority number one is to improve the current year's team. If Jocketty thinks that Ubaldo is cheaper to trade for in the offseason, then I sure hope he doesn't blow his chips right now.

[Tom Servo]

Rosenthal on MLB Network Rundown saying the Reds really want Shields and the Rays are listening. Repeating the info that Reds says Mes and Hamilton are untouchable.

[nemesis]

Rosenthal on MLB Network Rundown saying the Reds really want Shields and the Rays are listening. Repeating the info that Reds says Mes and Hamilton are untouchable.

This needs to get done.

Wood, Alonso, Stubbs, Boxberger, Joseph, Fisher for Upton and Shields.

[757690]

I don't understand your point.
Our odds RIGHT now are 10%.
Obviously that could change for the better or worse depending on how the Reds perform. Because it's a 4 team race, it will be very difficult, because even if the Reds get hot, it's likely another team that is already 4-5 games ahead of that we wont gain any ground on.

As of right now, I don't think priority number one is to improve the current year's team. If Jocketty thinks that Ubaldo is cheaper to trade for in the offseason, then I sure hope he doesn't blow his chips right now.

What are the odds of the Cardinals making the playoffs? The Brewers? The Pirates? They should be around 25%. That's much better than the Reds, but still pretty lousy. According to your logic, none of them should try to win the division this year.

[TOBTTReds]

What are the odds of the Cardinals making the playoffs? The Brewers? The Pirates? They should be around 25%. That's much better than the Reds, but still pretty lousy. According to your logic, none of them should try to win the division this year.

Here's one thing you can look at...
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[757690]

This needs to get done.

Wood, Alonso, Stubbs, Boxberger, Joseph, Fisher for Upton and Shields.

Can't trade both Stubbs and Alonso. Leaves the Reds with just Bruce and Upton in the OF, unless you want to play Heisey everyday.

And Stubbs is equal to Upton, IMO. Replace Stubbs with Heisey and it makes much more sense, and is still a very attractive offer.

[kaldaniels]

Can't trade both Stubbs and Alonso. Leaves the Reds with just Bruce and Upton in the OF, unless you want to play Heisey everyday.

And Stubbs is equal to Upton, IMO. Replace Stubbs with Heisey and it makes much more sense, and is still a very attractive offer.

Yeah I was gonna say that too. If it was a mathematical equation Stubbs and Upton pretty much cancel each other out.

[SirFelixCat]

This needs to get done.

Wood, Alonso, Stubbs, Boxberger, Joseph, Fisher for Upton and Shields.



Sub in Grandal for Alonso and Volkie in for Box or Joseph and I'm all for it!

[Buckeye33]

I still can't figure out why anyone would want to swap Stubbs for Upton. Both are the same age, Stubbs is cheaper and controlled longer, Stubbs plays better defense, Stubbs has as much or more speed and power than Upton.

Can someone explain that to me?

I'd love to get Shields, but please do not get rid of Stubbs for Upton just because Stubbs strikes out a lot, which seems to be why people are down on Stubbs this year.

[Spitball]

What are the odds of the Cardinals making the playoffs? The Brewers? The Pirates? They should be around 25%. That's much better than the Reds, but still pretty lousy. According to your logic, none of them should try to win the division this year.

I agree. Until the Reds have zero chance of winning, I want to see them do everything possible to win this season. Baseball should be played to win...today and tomorrow.

[Patrick Bateman]

What are the odds of the Cardinals making the playoffs? The Brewers? The Pirates? They should be around 25%. That's much better than the Reds, but still pretty lousy. According to your logic, none of them should try to win the division this year.

I would say that there are 3 teams who should be because they are not at an overall disadvantage right now. The fact that the Reds are a clear 4th right now makes it hard to take this year super seriosuly.

If one of those teams gets hot, they are guaranteed to still be in the mix.
If the Reds get hot, they could still be 5 games out.

[Brutus]

This year is a buyer's market and one that includes several players under a team's control for multiple years. The Reds should definitely take advantage of the market and continue to be active because it will help the team both this year and beyond.

[757690]

I would say that there are 3 teams who should be because they are not at an overall disadvantage right now. The fact that the Reds are a clear 4th right now makes it hard to take this year super seriosuly.

If one of those teams gets hot, they are guaranteed to still be in the mix.
If the Reds get hot, they could still be 5 games out.


That is a better explanation then the 10% argument. But five games back, even in Sept. is still in the mix, imo. At least enough to justify making a move to win it this season.

[Patrick Bateman]

That is a better explanation then the 10% argument. But five games back, even in Sept. is still in the mix, imo. At least enough to justify making a move to win it this season.

I'll I'm saying is that I don't understand the logic in being comfortable paying a premium to contend right now.

Again, I like the idea of a Shields who helps now and later, but not if it's at the sacrifice of getting bad value to take a run this year.

They aren't out of it. 10% is still almost a roll of the dice, but it's not great odds.

[RedLegSuperStar]

You want to talk about cost of players and cost of salary.. But if the Reds were to get a James Shields or Ubaldo Jimenez.. Guess what? Ticket sales will rise and already the Reds are getting about 4,000 more fans per game over last year. I can bet that would go up if a big time star is aquired. Just saying. Does good for the team and for the pocket books. Everyone complained about Junior.. But he made this team so much money that he paid for himself.

[wolfboy]

You want to talk about cost of players and cost of salary.. But if the Reds were to get a James Shields or Ubaldo Jimenez.. Guess what? Ticket sales will rise and already the Reds are getting about 4,000 more fans per game over last year. I can bet that would go up if a big time star is aquired. Just saying. Does good for the team and for the pocket books. Everyone complained about Junior.. But he made this team so much money that he paid for himself.

I don't know if I buy that re: Junior. I can't say one way or the other if Junior paid for himself in increased attendance, but I'm skeptical. The Reds exceeded the average N.L. attendance only twice while Junior was here (and not by much). The first time was in 2000, Junior's first year, which was also on the heels of a near playoff season. The second time was in 2003 when GABP opened.

[Always Red]

I still can't figure out why anyone would want to swap Stubbs for Upton. Both are the same age, Stubbs is cheaper and controlled longer, Stubbs plays better defense, Stubbs has as much or more speed and power than Upton.

Can someone explain that to me?



Stubbs >> Upton, IMO

The guy is really just learning how to hit MLB pitching (yes I know his age); some guys are late bloomers (referencing Chris Denorfia, who didn't get the chance here I would have love to see him have).

Stubbs blew me away the other night when he laid down a sac bunt and beat it out for a hit. His eyes were opened, too- so much so that he bunted again in the same game (though he was thrown out).

I don't want Stubby to turn into Norris Hopper, he has too much raw power for that. But during the drought times, when he is struggling to make contact, that bunt and his speed could be a very useful combination.

Stubbs brings a lot to the table; I'm willing to put up with some growing pains. All big leaguers have at least one weakness, even Pujols- though it took 10 years for anyone to see them!

[757690]

I don't know if I buy that re: Junior. I can't say one way or the other if Junior paid for himself in increased attendance, but I'm skeptical. The Reds exceeded the average N.L. attendance only twice while Junior was here (and not by much). The first time was in 2000, Junior's first year, which was also on the heels of a near playoff season. The second time was in 2003 when GABP opened.

Being in contention drives attendance far more than a star player.

[mdccclxix]

I don't know if I buy that re: Junior. I can't say one way or the other if Junior paid for himself in increased attendance, but I'm skeptical. The Reds exceeded the average N.L. attendance only twice while Junior was here (and not by much). The first time was in 2000, Junior's first year, which was also on the heels of a near playoff season. The second time was in 2003 when GABP opened.

Look at the drop in attendance when he left though. The casual fan went to see future HOF Ken Griffey Jr, not some 70 win crap team. Dunn was a big part of that too.

[nemesis]

I like Stubbs but he is being misused in the leadoff spot. His surge late last year after being dropped to the 7 hole shows that. Moving Stubbs for Upton who has a insane home road split, Moves him into the 4 hole and moves Sappelt to Cincy in a natural leadoff spot. Sappelt has plus D and fits in the lineup better than Stubbs.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Rockies had scout watching Grandel and Soto last night.. However not at the ballpark tonight

[mdccclxix]

I like Stubbs but he is being misused in the leadoff spot. His surge late last year after being dropped to the 7 hole shows that. Moving Stubbs for Upton who has a insane home road split, Moves him into the 4 hole and moves Sappelt to Cincy in a natural leadoff spot. Sappelt has plus D and fits in the lineup better than Stubbs.

Or just put Heisey in the leadoff. It's more likely to happen than Sappelt for the time being. I would like Stubbs in the 4 hole. He K's like Dunn and runs like Deion. I don't know how much protection Votto gets out of the deal, but it's worth a look.

[signalhome]

Or just put Heisey in the leadoff. It's more likely to happen than Sappelt for the time being. I would like Stubbs in the 4 hole. He K's like Dunn and runs like Deion. I don't know how much protection Votto gets out of the deal, but it's worth a look.

Heisey has a career .318 OBP and a career .448 SLG. I think he's better suited for the 6th/7th spot in the lineup than leadoff.

[Joseph]

Heisey has a career .318 OBP and a career .448 SLG. I think he's better suited for the 6th/7th spot in the lineup than leadoff.

Half our lineup is best suited for the 6/7 slot.

Phillips, Heisey, Rolen, Bad Bruce....

[mdccclxix]

Heisey has a career .318 OBP and a career .448 SLG. I think he's better suited for the 6th/7th spot in the lineup than leadoff.

True, I'm just being realistic about who's getting playing time going forward. If it's Stubbs in the 4, it's Heisey in the 1. I do still want to see Heisey in a regular role. He may adjust and start hitting .285-.295.

[signalhome]

Half our lineup is best suited for the 6/7 slot.

Phillips, Heisey, Rolen, Bad Bruce....

Probably a fair enough statement, but getting on base -- the key component to being a good leadoff hitter -- is not Heisey's strong suit. Only three players with 50+ PAs with the Reds have a lower OBP on the season (Janish .267, Rolen .279, Renteria .302).

[IslandRed]

Half our lineup is best suited for the 6/7 slot.

Phillips, Heisey, Rolen, Bad Bruce....

And Stubbs and Hernandez...

As a group, they're productive overall but we're sending basically the same guy to the plate an awful lot. I hope we can do some reconfiguring on the way to next year. Seems like we're looking for a cleanup or leadoff type, which is good. I like Upton but he seems very much like what we already have in quantity.

[OnBaseMachine]

From Tracy Ringolsby:


Sources close to the involved teams have indicated the Rockies have interest in a package of catcher jesus Montero, and pitchers Manuel Banuelos and Dellin Betances from the Yankees, and catcher Devon Mesoraco, and pitchers Travis Wood and Homer Bailey. Word out of Cicninnati is the Reds proposed Aroldis Chapman and Edinson Volquez along with Mesoraco.



http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/jimenez_talks_simmer/5767402

If that's true, Walt Jocketty is a major fool and should be fired immediately.

[Brutus]

From Tracy Ringolsby:



http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/jimenez_talks_simmer/5767402

If that's true, Walt Jocketty is a major fool and should be fired immediately.

Surely you don't really believe that do you? Chapman, Bailey/Wood and Mesoraco? Come on now. I hope your BS meter is spinning on that. That's the Rockies trying to up the ante on everyone if ever I've heard it being upped.

[kaldaniels]

From Tracy Ringolsby:



http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/jimenez_talks_simmer/5767402

If that's true, Walt Jocketty is a major fool and should be fired immediately.

Didn't/shouldn't you stop your GM firings after your response to the Rolen trade? :laugh:

[Brutus]

For what it's worth:

B.J. Upton is not in the lineup this evening.

#July

[OnBaseMachine]

Surely you don't really believe that do you? Chapman, Bailey/Wood and Mesoraco? Come on now. I hope your BS meter is spinning on that. That's the Rockies trying to up the ante on everyone if ever I've heard it being upped.

No I don't. Because if the Reds offered that, Jimenez would be in Cincinnati right now.

[Brutus]

No I don't. Because if the Reds offered that, Jimenez would be in Cincinnati right now.

Exactly

[signalhome]

From Tracy Ringolsby:



http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/jimenez_talks_simmer/5767402

If that's true, Walt Jocketty is a major fool and should be fired immediately.

The appropriate response to that trade proposal: :lol:

[OnBaseMachine]

Didn't/shouldn't you stop your GM firings after your response to the Rolen trade? :laugh:

No. Jocketty has had a disastrous last 12 months...I'd say it's more than okay to question him at this point. But, no, I don't believe he offered that package for Jimenez. He's not that stupid.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Can't see that.. Considering they have said Mesoraco is untouchable + Chapman?

Funny how word came out this morning that a deal doesn't have to include Mes or Chapman

[RedLegSuperStar]

For what it's worth:

B.J. Upton is not in the lineup this evening.

#July

He is headed to Washington for Ramos

[RedLegSuperStar]

Colorado trying to get 2 big prospects out of the Yankees

[Brutus]

He is headed to Washington for Ramos

That's one rumor, as he and Desmond are also not in the lineup. However, my understanding is that Desmond and Ramos were also rumored to be traded for Span... so I don't think it's conclusive either way.

[klw]

He is headed to Washington for Ramos

Is this speculation or do you have a link?

[Brutus]

Is this speculation or do you have a link?

Last I saw, it was merely speculation. Perhaps something's been finalized, but I haven't seen it personally.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Is this speculation or do you have a link?

Think it's speculation.. But Jim Bowden said that the Nationals needed a true CFer for a while now and that the Rays needed a catcher.

[edabbs44]

No. Jocketty has had a disastrous last 12 months...I'd say it's more than okay to question him at this point. But, no, I don't believe he offered that package for Jimenez. He's not that stupid.

Disasterous? That would have been if he inked EV.

[RedLegSuperStar]

@JimBowdenESPNxm The Nationals have been trying to solve CF for a long time...the Rays have tried to solve catcher for a long time..UPTON - RAMOS makes sense

[klw]

@JimBowdenESPNxm The Nationals have been trying to solve CF for a long time...the Rays have tried to solve catcher for a long time..UPTON - RAMOS makes sense

Well lets send Corky to the Rays for Upton and call it a day. :D

[Brutus]

Since Jim Bowden is reporting it, I feel confident it's not gonna happen :D

[RedLegSuperStar]

Since Jim Bowden is reporting it, I feel confident it's not gonna happen :D

All four players are out of the lineups tonight.. But nothing has transpired between Nats, Twins, or Rays

[Ghosts of 1990]

Why haven't we done anything?

[Mario-Rijo]

Why haven't we done anything?

Hey this isn't a Bengals forum....:D

[757690]

http://twitter.com/#!/hankschulman/status/96377093323104256


@hankschulman
Henry Schulman
...Some in Giants organization still believe Reds will deal Ramon Hernandez for a pitcher, which the Giants have plenty of.

[HotCorner]

It only makes sense.



@hankschulman

...Some in Giants organization still believe Reds will deal Ramon Hernandez for a pitcher, which the Giants have plenty of.

[RedLegSuperStar]

James Shields kind of had a bad outing.. perhaps his last as a Ray?

[Will M]

http://twitter.com/#!/hankschulman/status/96377093323104256


It only makes sense.

what i'd like to see is the team not having a fire sale but moving towards 2012. if Ubaldo or Shields is available then get one (or both) of them. move Ramon for the best offer & call us Mes. play Cozart at SS (when he comes back) & Frazier at 3B (not Cairo). if Alonso isn't used in a trade then play him in LF & not Lewis. the Reds have little chance to make the playoffs this year. if someone offers us a 'B' prospect for Ramon then make the deal. the Giants need more offense than just Panda & Beltran. they could use Ramon.

while the above might not win quite as many games as the status quo it might actually win more. I believe that happened with the Phillies a couple of years ago. if playing the youth costs us a game or two then no big deal. the 2012 team will be better if guys get some playing time. time to see exactly what we have with guys like Alonso, Frazier, Cozart, Mes, etc.

[HotCorner]

what i'd like to see is the team not having a fire sale but moving towards 2012. if Ubaldo or Shields is available then get one (or both) of them. move Ramon for the best offer & call us Mes. play Cozart at SS (when he comes back) & Frazier at 3B (not Cairo). if Alonso isn't used in a trade then play him in LF & not Lewis. the Reds have little chance to make the playoffs this year. if someone offers us a 'B' prospect for Ramon then make the deal. the Giants need more offense than just Panda & Beltran. they could use Ramon.

while the above might not win quite as many games as the status quo it might actually win more. I believe that happened with the Phillies a couple of years ago. if playing the youth costs us a game or two then no big deal. the 2012 team will be better if guys get some playing time. time to see exactly what we have with guys like Alonso, Frazier, Cozart, Mes, etc.

Agreed. I'd even put Cordero on the market since relievers/closers are such an in-demand commodity.

[RBA]

Sell, but work towards 2012. 2011 is history.

[corkedbat]

Sell, but work towards 2012. 2011 is history.

Sell & Buy for 2012 & 13 and if we come back and win this year just consider it "collateral improvement." :dancingcool:

[Big Klu]

I still can't figure out why anyone would want to swap Stubbs for Upton. Both are the same age, Stubbs is cheaper and controlled longer, Stubbs plays better defense, Stubbs has as much or more speed and power than Upton.

Can someone explain that to me?

I'd love to get Shields, but please do not get rid of Stubbs for Upton just because Stubbs strikes out a lot, which seems to be why people are down on Stubbs this year.

Because Upton has a brother who is really good. (It's the only reason I can think of.)

[corkedbat]

Agreed. I'd even put Cordero on the market since relievers/closers are such an in-demand commodity.

Oh, I believe you definitely deal Ramon for a backend starter or a power arm for the bullpen - a ower lefty that could free Aroldis for the rotation would be ideal.

If there is any way to move Cordero or Arroyo, you do it (if you receive something useful in the bargain - excellent!). Wonder how the Red Sox and Arroyo would feel about a deal for...say...ummm...maybe...Bryce Brentz!?!?

That's what thought they'd say. :(

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Agreed. I'd even put Cordero on the market since relievers/closers are such an in-demand commodity.

I hope they can find a sucker organization that will pay him for his title. I would love it.

He's the 4th best RP in the 'pen (if that) and we all know it.

[corkedbat]

Agreed. I'd even put Cordero on the market since relievers/closers are such an in-demand commodity.

Who needs closers - not questioning your statement or all, I'd just like to know and see if there would be a match.

[Patrick Bateman]

I hope they can find a sucker organization that will pay him for his title. I would love it.

He's the 4th best RP in the 'pen (if that) and we all know it.

I don't think it would be a sucker trade.

More like the Reds eat half his remaining salary and get a fringyish prospect/player in return.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I don't think it would be a sucker trade.

More like the Reds eat half his remaining salary and get a fringyish prospect/player in return.

That's fine.

However, any team that trades for him to make him a closer for a playoff run would be a sucker.

I'm fine with fringyish prospects if it means Coco goes. Move forward.

[Red Leader]

That's fine.

However, any team that trades for him to make him a closer for a playoff run would be a sucker.

I'm fine with fringyish prospects if it means Coco goes. Move forward.

No team in contention is going to trade for him to be their closer. He may temporarily close some games if a team's closer is hurt, but not their primary closer. Teams would trade for him to be a power armed setup man.

[757690]

@JoeStrauss Joe Strauss
Hearing Reds have serious misgivings about all-in move to save this season. I see their point.


Me too.

http://twitter.com/#!/JoeStrauss/status/96429265372979201

[mdccclxix]

I knew they needed to make a move last week, or earlier. You could just see the sandbags this team was tied to, they needed relief fast - before this homestand - if they were serious about winning. Pretty disappointing. First the FO couldn't get anything done, perhaps not their fault since these things go until the last minute. Second, the players couldn't get their sorry heads out of the gutter to play some inspired ball.

[RedLegSuperStar]

I think this team catored to the media.. Say we want to win and we are buyers at this years deadline.. Most likely to raise ticket sales. Now that this team has found ways to lose 3 in a row I think those buyers turned to a team who just sits back and watches. This team however should be using it's future players at 3rd and LF on a regular basis at least up to the deadline.. They might actually win! Scary thought

[mth123]

I think this team catored to the media.. Say we want to win and we are buyers at this years deadline.. Most likely to raise ticket sales. Now that this team has found ways to lose 3 in a row I think those buyers turned to a team who just sits back and watches. This team however should be using it's future players at 3rd and LF on a regular basis at least up to the deadline.. They might actually win! Scary thought

This assumes the future players are actually on the roster. I think they still need to make moves. I wouldn't raise the white flag, but moves with the idea of helpng beyond 2011 should still be on the agenda. I'd still be after a starter and a LF who can hit 4th. As for the future, a Hernandez (or maybe Hanigan) deal with a Mesoraco call-up is definitely something that should be in play.

I still think Alonso, Grandal, and some of the other kids who probably don't fit should be on the block to get solutions for 2011 and beyond and dealing them should be the order of the day. I'd be floating Stubbs name out there with the thought of a major return (Jimenez) and I'd turn CF over to Sappelt with Heisey as the 4th OF. They probably need to keep Renteria until Cozart comes back, but SS is a problem on a lot of teams. The D-Backs may be interested with Drew out and the other three central teams may actually all find Renteria to be an upgrade as crazy as that seems. Once Cozart returns, Renteria goes IMO. Lewis would be another guy to go, but if other guys are dealt and the team needs bodies, then Lewis could stay. I'd have Arroyo's name on the market at this point and would listen on Volquez, Wood, Leake and if the return is great Bailey. I wonder if there is interest in Dontrelle Willis?

[Strikes Out Looking]

I'd sell off Hernandez and Cordero right now. Work for 2012 and maybe even catch lightning in a bottle this year -- Quite frankly, I believe the injury to Rolen earlier this year and the fact that he never quite healed hurt the team in ways that can't be measured.

[LoganBuck]

I am really angry about how this season has gone down. The Reds should have done something much sooner. Between the stubborn reluctance to call up Cozart, and Alonso, and the failure to admit that they had problems has led to this. An infield that has started Renteria and Cairo two straight days, and Sis Heisey manning left.

This teams needs are the same now that they were in 2009 and 2010.
-Leadoff hitter
-Cleanup Bat
-Number 1 starting pitcher

Aside from a lot of angst among the fans nothing has been done to fix this problem.

IMO, a good lineup has some diversity among the regulars, some high OBP, some SLG, some speed, some high contact grinders. The Reds have this but the parts dont fit together. The speed is attached to a guy who has contact issues, you have OBP attached to catchers and first basemen. Essentially the Reds have most of the parts for 1 car, but have parts for a Prius, an Escalade, and a Ferrari. They don't work together.

[Edd Roush]

This teams needs are the same now that they were in 2009 and 2010.
-Leadoff hitter
-Cleanup Bat
-Number 1 starting pitcher



Completely agreed on your list. Is there anyway Mes could be the righty cleanup bat between Votto and Bruce. Who would be a good target for a legit left-fielder who could lead-off? I am still behind a Ubaldo/Shields trade that doesn't "sell the farm." That could fill all three holes.

[Unassisted]

I am really angry about how this season has gone down. The Reds should have done something much sooner. Between the stubborn reluctance to call up Cozart, and Alonso, and the failure to admit that they had problems has led to this. An infield that has started Renteria and Cairo two straight days, and Sis Heisey manning left.

This teams needs are the same now that they were in 2009 and 2010.
-Leadoff hitter
-Cleanup Bat
-Number 1 starting pitcherTo me the lack of action telegraphs that the Reds can't afford upgrades and (until the Gomes trade for prospects) Castellini didn't want to be a seller. They seem to be at their payroll limit. It's not a lack of imagination, it's a lack of cash.

[REDREAD]

If one of those teams gets hot, they are guaranteed to still be in the mix.
If the Reds get hot, they could still be 5 games out.

I was optimistic for awhile, but I'm glad the Reds didn't get Beltran or another rental now. We are on the verge of being swept by the Mets.. Time to retool for next year. The team is still interesting, but they basically have no chance to win.

[Caveat Emperor]

I am really angry about how this season has gone down. The Reds should have done something much sooner. Between the stubborn reluctance to call up Cozart, and Alonso, and the failure to admit that they had problems has led to this. An infield that has started Renteria and Cairo two straight days, and Sis Heisey manning left.

This teams needs are the same now that they were in 2009 and 2010.
-Leadoff hitter
-Cleanup Bat
-Number 1 starting pitcher

Aside from a lot of angst among the fans nothing has been done to fix this problem.

IMO, a good lineup has some diversity among the regulars, some high OBP, some SLG, some speed, some high contact grinders. The Reds have this but the parts dont fit together. The speed is attached to a guy who has contact issues, you have OBP attached to catchers and first basemen. Essentially the Reds have most of the parts for 1 car, but have parts for a Prius, an Escalade, and a Ferrari. They don't work together.

It's essentially the same team that won the NL Central last year. They counted on younger players getting better (which didn't happen in the case of Volquez, Wood, Bruce, or Stubbs), and they counted on the team staying healthy (which didn't happen with Rolen, Arroyo, or Bailey).

Frustrating? Sure. But I look back and I don't see a ton of things I would've done differently.

What? You think the Reds should've gone after Greinke? He hasn't exactly been a tremendous help to the Brewers this year. Or you think they should've gone after a big bat? How's Jayson Werth and that sub-.700 OPS working out for DC?

[RedLegSuperStar]

Id like to see a Josh Willingham or Ryan Ludwick in LF and I still really want the Ubaldo deal to go through.

[wolfboy]

It's essentially the same team that won the NL Central last year. They counted on younger players getting better (which didn't happen in the case of Volquez, Wood, Bruce, or Stubbs), and they counted on the team staying healthy (which didn't happen with Rolen, Arroyo, or Bailey).

Frustrating? Sure. But I look back and I don't see a ton of things I would've done differently.

What? You think the Reds should've gone after Greinke? He hasn't exactly been a tremendous help to the Brewers this year. Or you think they should've gone after a big bat? How's Jayson Werth and that sub-.700 OPS working out for DC?

Great post. Things just didn't fall in place this year. Granted, if they had a clean up batter, an ace pitcher and a lead off hitter, things could have been much better. Same could be said for every team in baseball.

[wolfboy]

Id like to see a Josh Willingham or Ryan Ludwick in LF and I still really want the Ubaldo deal to go through.

You see Josh Willingham and his .6 WAR as an upgrade?

[buckeyenut]

To me the lack of action telegraphs that the Reds can't afford upgrades and (until the Gomes trade for prospects) Castellini didn't want to be a seller. They seem to be at their payroll limit. It's not a lack of imagination, it's a lack of cash.
They didn't add anyone over the offseason and they have brought in 4000 more fans a night than last year. So I would think they would have a little wiggle room. That said, I did the math and 53 home games times 4000 fans times 10 dollars a fan (you could argue for more), we are only talking about 2.2 Million, which was less than I thought.

[buckeyenut]

Id like to see a Josh Willingham or Ryan Ludwick in LF and I still really want the Ubaldo deal to go through.

I'd still make a move for Ubaldo, Shields, Wright or Hanley. Maybe Bell or Adams if they would be around next year, but typically I wouldn't pull a trigger for a reliever for the future, only one for this year. But Willingham or Ludwick or even TB's Upton? Blech. ARI's Upton? Now we're talking!

[wolfboy]

They didn't add anyone over the offseason and they have brought in 4000 more fans a night than last year. So I would think they would have a little wiggle room. That said, I did the math and 53 home games times 4000 fans times 10 dollars a fan (you could argue for more), we are only talking about 2.2 Million, which was less than I thought.

I don't know the ins and outs of their lease, but wouldn't they bring more in than just the ticket price? I'd think they'd get bring in revenue from things like parking, concessions, etc...

[bucksfan2]

It's essentially the same team that won the NL Central last year. They counted on younger players getting better (which didn't happen in the case of Volquez, Wood, Bruce, or Stubbs), and they counted on the team staying healthy (which didn't happen with Rolen, Arroyo, or Bailey).

Frustrating? Sure. But I look back and I don't see a ton of things I would've done differently.

What? You think the Reds should've gone after Greinke? He hasn't exactly been a tremendous help to the Brewers this year. Or you think they should've gone after a big bat? How's Jayson Werth and that sub-.700 OPS working out for DC?

I think you nailed it right here. The Reds didn't make any big moves in the off season but it was almost the same team that won the division the previous year. And with the exception of Cueto and Leake no player on the Reds has played up to their 2010 level. Not even Votto who is having a nice season this year.

The offense, pitching, and defense haven't meshed all season long. But you also bring up a good point, most of the big trade targets or top dollar FA's have struggled this season. Werth and Crawford were the two top dogs and they have been having tough seasons.

A lot of the anger has been directed at Walt but not directed at Bruce or Stubbs or Phillips or Wood or Arroyo or Phillips. Actually most of the fans anger had been directed at Gomes!

[REDREAD]

No. Jocketty has had a disastrous last 12 months...I'd say it's more than okay to question him at this point. But, no, I don't believe he offered that package for Jimenez. He's not that stupid.

Not really disasterous. That's a harsh judgement.
Even if he added Cliff Lee and one of the popular LF targets on the offseason, we'd still be out of the race. The team just flopped this year.

[camisadelgolf]

Not really disasterous. That's a harsh judgement.
Even if he added Cliff Lee and one of the popular LF targets on the offseason, we'd still be out of the race. The team just flopped this year.
I beg to differ. I think the difference between Volquez' and Lee's production would've been enough to put the Reds in first place or very close to it.

[REDREAD]

I beg to differ. I think the difference between Volquez' and Lee's production would've been enough to put the Reds in first place or very close to it.

But the problem is that Volquez would've gotten just as long of a trial, even if the Reds had Lee.

I did a hypothetical scenerio in another post.. based on what everyone wanted to do in the offseason (a dream scenerio).. Get Williamham and Lee. Trade Leake, Let Gomes go.. That was a majority opinion.. WAR is flawed but the difference projected over the season was only 2-3 games.. Not enough.

I was one of the more pessemistic posters about Volquez entering the season,
but I just assumed he could hold down the #5 slot and pitch almost 500.
Bottom line is that Volquez is an asset that no one wanted to trade last winter (understandable, he does have raw tools).. he's an asset the Reds are heavily invested in, so he was going to get a long tryout this year.
He fell flat on this face, which did help to kill us in the standings.

Multiple things went wrong this season. An ace and cleanup hitter would've made this season better, but we still would not have won this year.

I'm really glad now that we did not sacrifice talent to rent Beltran or Edwin Jackson.. It would not have made a difference. I tried to stay optimistic for a long time, but we're just a 500 team this year. Walt did the right thing by not panicing and trying to salvage this season. I agree with the posters that now is the time to sell off the Gomes, Hernandez, etc types and see what the AAA kids can do.

[SirFelixCat]

But the problem is that Volquez would've gotten just as long of a trial, even if the Reds had Lee.

I did a hypothetical scenerio in another post.. based on what everyone wanted to do in the offseason (a dream scenerio).. Get Williamham and Lee. Trade Leake, Let Gomes go.. That was a majority opinion.. WAR is flawed but the difference projected over the season was only 2-3 games.. Not enough.

I was one of the more pessemistic posters about Volquez entering the season,
but I just assumed he could hold down the #5 slot and pitch almost 500.
Bottom line is that Volquez is an asset that no one wanted to trade last winter (understandable, he does have raw tools).. he's an asset the Reds are heavily invested in, so he was going to get a long tryout this year.
He fell flat on this face, which did help to kill us in the standings.

Multiple things went wrong this season. An ace and cleanup hitter would've made this season better, but we still would not have won this year.

I'm really glad now that we did not sacrifice talent to rent Beltran or Edwin Jackson.. It would not have made a difference. I tried to stay optimistic for a long time, but we're just a 500 team this year. Walt did the right thing by not panicing and trying to salvage this season. I agree with the posters that now is the time to sell off the Gomes, Hernandez, etc types and see what the AAA kids can do.


I wholehearted agree with the entire post. :clap:

Everyone seems to forget that even had we gotten Lee, he would not have simply replaced Volkie. Nothing that happened with him, specifically, would have change.

[Edd Roush]

If the Reds do land a Shields/Jimenez type ace, and happen to get a little talent back for Hernandez and/or Cordero, I think they are lining themselves up well for 2012. Left field will be the question, which is why I would like to see what Alonso could do out there every day. I know he made a nice sliding catch in the 9th inning last night. His bat is bigger than Heisey's and he could really add pop to this line-up.

Where does everybody think Mes fits in the Reds' 2011-2012 line-up? In the cleanup spot between Votto and Bruce?

Cozart
Stubbs
Votto
Mes
Bruce
Phillips
Alonso
Rolen
Pitcher

How does that lineup look? I can't believe I have Rolen in the 8-hole and Dusty would never do that, but I think that line-up may play the best.
Phillips

[PuffyPig]

If the Reds do land a Shields/Jimenez type ace, and happen to get a little talent back for Hernandez and/or Cordero, I think they are lining themselves up well for 2012. Left field will be the question, which is why I would like to see what Alonso could do out there every day. I know he made a nice sliding catch in the 9th inning last night. His bat is bigger than Heisey's and he could really add pop to this line-up.

Where does everybody think Mes fits in the Reds' 2011-2012 line-up? In the cleanup spot between Votto and Bruce?

Cozart
Stubbs
Votto
Mes
Bruce
Phillips
Alonso
Rolen
Pitcher

How does that lineup look? I can't believe I have Rolen in the 8-hole and Dusty would never do that, but I think that line-up may play the best.
Phillips

Cozart at lead-off?

He hasn't taken a walk yet this year, and his OBA is below Stubbs even though his BABIP is an unsustainable .345.

With the players you have listed, the lead-off man is either Stubbs or Phillips. We'd all like Stubb's OBA to be higher than his general league average .330, but his superior speed and base running ability leads very well to the postiton. He's still our best lead off guy by far.

I'd go with:

Stubbs
Phillips
Votto
Mess (I hope)
Bruce
Alonso
Rolen
Cozart

or:

Stubbs
Alonso
Votto
Mess
Bruce
Phillips
Rolen
Cozart

I kinda like the 2nd one better.

[RollyInRaleigh]

This losing streak could be reason enough for them to justify doing nothing.

[WrongVerb]

Cozart at lead-off?

He hasn't taken a walk yet this year, and his OBA is below Stubbs even though his BABIP is an unsustainable .345.

With the players you have listed, the lead-off man is either Stubbs or Phillips. We'd all like Stubb's OBA to be higher than his general league average .330, but his superior speed and base running ability leads very well to the postiton. He's still our best lead off guy by far.

I'd go with:

Stubbs
Phillips
Votto
Mess (I hope)
Bruce
Alonso
Rolen
Cozart

or:

Stubbs
Alonso
Votto
Mess
Bruce
Phillips
Rolen
Cozart

I kinda like the 2nd one better.

How about:

Stubbs
Alonso
Phillips
Votto
Mez
Bruce
Rolen
Cozart

[Nasty_Boy]

I love and appreciate what Cairo has brought to this team but I think Frazier needs to be getting the looks at 3rd because I really feel like Rolen is finished. He may show some flashes but I think he's too beat up to give any real value in the future.

Having said that, I don't think the Reds should discount looking for a bat at 3rd at the deadline... I like Frazier, but I think Walt should keep an eye towards acquiring a 3rd base bat.

[Chip R]

I love and appreciate what Cairo has brought to this team but I think Frazier needs to be getting the looks at 3rd because I really feel like Rolen is finished. He may show some flashes but I think he's too beat up to give any real value in the future.

Having said that, I don't think the Reds should discount looking for a bat at 3rd at the deadline... I like Frazier, but I think Walt should keep an eye towards acquiring a 3rd base bat.

I'm not sure Rolen is finished but I would like to see Frazier get the majority of playing time at third to see how he fares. Of course the Reds may have already made up their minds about him already and don't feel he's in their future plans.

[Edd Roush]

How about:

Stubbs
Alonso
Phillips
Votto
Mez
Bruce
Rolen
Cozart

I think I actually like Puffy's second line-up better than yours or mine. I don't want Phillips high up in the order, which is why I had Cozart leading off in mine. Stubbs-Alonso intrigues me at the top of the order.

[OldXOhio]

No problem whatsoever with making moves to fill the team's void for 2012 and beyond, even if it means parting with prospects and a few regulars. The acquisition of rentals was in question going into this week, now it ought not even be considered.

Doing nothing by Sunday tells me the FO just doesn't get it, a mistake akin to thinking the team is still in playoff contention. Outside of a late summer run in 2010, this team's record repeatedly screams mediocrity at best.

[WrongVerb]

I think I actually like Puffy's second line-up better than yours or mine. I don't want Phillips high up in the order, which is why I had Cozart leading off in mine. Stubbs-Alonso intrigues me at the top of the order.

I actually think Stubbs would work better as a #2 (been saying this all season) behind a solid leadoff guy. With a high OBP guy getting on base in front of Stubbs, he would see a lot more fastballs, which would make it easier for him to hit. But we don't seem to have a player like that on the team.

Too bad this team doesn't have the money to sign Reyes.

[Nasty_Boy]

I'm not sure Rolen is finished but I would like to see Frazier get the majority of playing time at third to see how he fares. Of course the Reds may have already made up their minds about him already and don't feel he's in their future plans.

That may be true... I love Rolen and when he's right, he's a joy to watch. The problem is he hasn't been right or very productive since the first half of last season. I don't know if Frazier is the answer or not, but I have to think that Scotty doesn't have too much left in the tank. I just think this is an area Walt should look to possibly upgrade at the deadline or before next season.

[Edd Roush]

Doing nothing by Sunday tells me the FO just doesn't get it, a mistake akin to thinking the team is still in playoff contention. Outside of a late summer run in 2010, this team's record repeatedly screams mediocrity at best.

The optimist inside me wants to say that you need to cut the FO a break if they can't pull a Shields/King Felix/Ubaldo by Sunday because they may be requiring a Chapman or Mesoraco, which I don't know if I would do. But the guy who has watched the last three Reds' games and seen the Reds languish around .500 all year, agrees with you. I really want the Reds to pull in an ace at the deadline or I do believe I will be disappointed.

[Edd Roush]

I actually think Stubbs would work better as a #2 (been saying this all season) behind a solid leadoff guy. With a high OBP guy getting on base in front of Stubbs, he would see a lot more fastballs, which would make it easier for him to hit. But we don't seem to have a player like that on the team.

Too bad this team doesn't have the money to sign Reyes.

I agree with your whole post. That's why I was trying to fit Cozart into the lead-off spot. I still think the second line-up Puffy proposed would be in the top 5 in NL runs scored in 2012 and if it stayed healthy would likely be in the top 3. It's the pitching that needs to be improved in 2012. We need an ace without giving up Mes or Chapman.

[PuffyPig]

I agree with your whole post. That's why I was trying to fit Cozart into the lead-off spot. I still think the second line-up Puffy proposed would be in the top 5 in NL runs scored in 2012 and if it stayed healthy would likely be in the top 3. It's the pitching that needs to be improved in 2012. We need an ace without giving up Mes or Chapman.


Top 5 in 2012?

Our current lineup is 2nd this year.

[Edd Roush]

Top 5 in 2012?

Our current lineup is 2nd this year.

I really like Mes, but I don't know if he can match Ramon's 2011 numbers. You would think Cozart would outperform our 2011 SS performance. Who knows if Bruce or Stubbs will improve in 2012. I guess top 2 is possible again in 2012, but I can solidly say that they will be top 5 in 2012.

[HokieRed]

The optimist inside me wants to say that you need to cut the FO a break if they can't pull a Shields/King Felix/Ubaldo by Sunday because they may be requiring a Chapman or Mesoraco, which I don't know if I would do. But the guy who has watched the last three Reds' games and seen the Reds languish around .500 all year, agrees with you. I really want the Reds to pull in an ace at the deadline or I do believe I will be disappointed.

The last two guys anointed "ace" are Arroyo and Volquez. Might be good to be careful and work with what we know better: Cueto, Bailey, Leake, best pitchers we have.

[Spitball]

Indians Very Close To Acquiring Kosuke Fukudome

By Tim Dierkes [July 28 at 11:02am CST]

11:02am: A Cubs source told ESPN's Jim Bowden the prospects are outfielder Abner Abreu and pitcher Carlton Smith (Twitter link).

I don't see this mentioned.

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

The optimist inside me wants to say that you need to cut the FO a break if they can't pull a Shields/King Felix/Ubaldo by Sunday because they may be requiring a Chapman or Mesoraco, which I don't know if I would do. But the guy who has watched the last three Reds' games and seen the Reds languish around .500 all year, agrees with you. I really want the Reds to pull in an ace at the deadline or I do believe I will be disappointed.

But the latest indication from the Rockies a day or two ago was that they didn't require either of those two players. I would think, however, that Alonso would be a must for Colorado in any trade that brought Ubaldo to the Queen City. Since Dusty Baker doesn't appear either enthused or all that interested in playing Alsonso in LF now that he's here, so that trade just may work.

[Edd Roush]

I don't see this mentioned.

Good move from the Tribe. Fukudome is right around his career OBP of .369 with a .374 OBP this year and has always played "smart" defense. Abreu is a decent A ball outfielder who is already 21 and Smith is a solid AAA reliever. Looks like a salary dump by the Cubs. Should make next weekend's series a little easier for the Reds.

[Edd Roush]

But the latest indication from the Rockies a day or two ago was that they didn't require either of those two players. I would think, however, that Alonso would be a must for Colorado in any trade that brought Ubaldo to the Queen City. Since Dusty Baker doesn't appear either enthused or all that interested in playing Alsonso in LF now that he's here, so that trade just may work.

I agree with your post. If Alonso is traded, I would like to see what Heisey does every day this year. I don't think he will OBP enough to be a lead-off hitter and he will ever hit for enough power to be a clean-up hitter. So he doesn't really seem to fill any of our holes. Walt should be looking for a clean-up hitter or a lead-off hitter for 2012 at this deadline and into this off-season.

[REDREAD]

That may be true... I love Rolen and when he's right, he's a joy to watch. The problem is he hasn't been right or very productive since the first half of last season. I don't know if Frazier is the answer or not, but I have to think that Scotty doesn't have too much left in the tank. I just think this is an area Walt should look to possibly upgrade at the deadline or before next season.

Rolen has been fighting shoulder problems all season.. Despite that, if you take defense into account, he's at least league average. I realize the bar for league average at 3b is kind of low now.
We are kind of stuck with him next year, hopefully he gets healthy next year.

I'd have no problem trying to bottom feed for a 3b, but trading for a major upgrade at 3b does not make much sense due to Rolen's contract.

Hopefully, either a new LF is brought in, or Alonso/Bruce can fill the role of cleanup hitter next year. I don't think we should expect Mes to step right in and hit cleanup.. They will most likely break him in, batting 7/8, which makes sense.

So basically, either Bruce or Alosno needs to step up. Phillips does a pretty good job in cleanup when forced to hit there, but I like him better batting 1st or 2nd.

[Mario-Rijo]

Wonder if we can procure Connor Gillaspie away from S.F. for Ramon (and perhaps we can even toss in Lewis or Renteria)?

[corkedbat]

Random thoughts entering deadline weekend:

I think the Reds have five priorities to address. By this weekend would be nice, but by ST would be fine.

1. At least 1 TOR pitcher (preferrably two)
2. LF (power guy between Bruce & Votto)
3. Power relievers ( a lefty to make it easier to start Chapman, a righty to add to the mix to replace Coco)
4. 3B (young replacement for Rolen)
5. MI (preferrably LH/SH as a reserve now and possibly a replacement BP after next season

(1) Both Ubaldo and Shields would really put this franchise in a wonder ful place IMO, but I would be OK with just one of the two this weekend (I prefer Shields)

(2) I want a real OFer with the power to hit between Bruce and Votto. Someone who has power, but also gives you adequate D. If he doesn't cost too much or take away from other deals, I'd bring in Ludwick and basically give him an audition the rest of the season - if he responds well to the GAB (and getting out of Petco) I try for a reasonable extension. If not, I let him walk and this becomes priority 1 this coming offseason.

(3) Relief pitching is not as pressing a need right now, but still very real need between now and spring training, IMO. On the left side, I want Chapman moving to the rotation next year, but don't see a late-inning lefty that I like in the system. Bray and Horst are both find in the MR spot, but I want better in the later innings. While they probably wouln't be interested, I'd see if there is any way there is a fit with the Indians for Drew Pomerantz. On the right side, Coco is gone. Massett, Arredondo, Boxberger and Ondusek are all possibiites for the late inning or to replace Coco. All make me nervous too. I'd like to have at least one more veteran option added. If they are under control for at least 2012 or (reasonably extendable) I wouldn't mind one of Bell or Adams (or even Qualls) in a package with Ludwick. Ditto Street in a Jiminez deal.

(4) I like Frazier for now, but wouldn't mind a replacemnt that moves him to super-sub role. A lefty bat (or switch-hitter) would be nice, but not necessary. My pipedream would be Will Middlebrooks and Bryce Brentz from the Red Sox - I'd be willing to send them Grandal and one of Stubbs/Sappelt/Heisey and parts. I'd talk Arroyo too, but doubt there's real interest

(5) a middle infielder is not an immediate need, but it isn't too early to think about adding somone to the mix to replace BP. A lfthanded hiter would give nice versatility

* Mesaraco and Chapman would not be in any discussions.

* I would not deal Grandal, unless I could get someone I really want (at a position of immediate need - Ace, LF or young 3B) and including Yasmani reduces the number of guys I needed for one deal - freeing them up for another.

* I don't want to deal Bailey or Leake, but would giveup one if it improved the club enough. I would be willing to move Wood.

* Frazier is not untouchable by any means, but his versatility (with pop) means he is one I would try to keep.

* Likewise for Boxberger. He's available for the right deal too, but I would then have to turn around and acquire a second late-inning righty so I would try to avoid it and hold him back if I can.

[wolfboy]

Random thoughts entering deadline weekend:

I think the Reds have five priorities to address. By this weekend would be nice, but by ST would be fine.

1. At least 1 TOR pitcher (preferrably two)
2. LF (power guy between Bruce & Votto)
3. Power relievers ( a lefty to make it easier to start Chapman, a righty to add to the mix to replace Coco)
4. 3B (young replacement for Rolen)
5. MI (preferrably LH/SH as a reserve now and possibly a replacement BP after next season

(1) Both Ubaldo and Shields would really put this franchise in a wonder ful place IMO, but I would be OK with just one of the two this weekend (I prefer Shields)

(2) I want a real OFer with the power to hit between Bruce and Votto. Someone who has power, but also gives you adequate D. If he doesn't cost too much or take away from other deals, I'd bring in Ludwick and basically give him an audition the rest of the season - if he responds well to the GAB (and getting out of Petco) I try for a reasonable extension. If not, I let him walk and this becomes priority 1 this coming offseason.

(3) Relief pitching is not as pressing a need right now, but still very real need between now and spring training, IMO. On the left side, I want Chapman moving to the rotation next year, but don't see a late-inning lefty that I like in the system. Bray and Horst are both find in the MR spot, but I want better in the later innings. While they probably wouln't be interested, I'd see if there is any way there is a fit with the Indians for Drew Pomerantz. On the right side, Coco is gone. Massett, Arredondo, Boxberger and Ondusek are all possibiites for the late inning or to replace Coco. All make me nervous too. I'd like to have at least one more veteran option added. If they are under control for at least 2012 or (reasonably extendable) I wouldn't mind one of Bell or Adams (or even Qualls) in a package with Ludwick. Ditto Street in a Jiminez deal.

(4) I like Frazier for now, but wouldn't mind a replacemnt that moves him to super-sub role. A lefty bat (or switch-hitter) would be nice, but not necessary. My pipedream would be Will Middlebrooks and Bryce Brentz from the Red Sox - I'd be willing to send them Grandal and one of Stubbs/Sappelt/Heisey and parts. I'd talk Arroyo to, but doubt there's real interest

(5) a middle infielder is not an immediate need, but it isn't too early to think about adding somone to the mix to replace BP. A lfthanded hiter would give nice versatility

* Mesaraco and Chapman would not be in any discussions.

* I would not deal Grandal, unless I could get someone I really want (at a position of immediate need - Ace, LF or young 3B).

* I don't want to deal Bailey or Leake, but would giveup one if it improved the club enough. I would be willing to move Wood.

* Frazier is not untouchable by any means, but his versatility (with pop) means he is one I would try to keep.

* Likewise for Boxberge. He's available for the right deal too, but I would then have to turn around and acquire a second late-inning righty so I would try to avoid it and hold him back if I can.

Here's what you think the Reds should get by spring training: An ace or two, clean up hitter in LF, power arm closer, starting 3B, and a replacement for BP.

Here's what you don't want to give up: Mesoraco, Chapman, Grandal, Bailey, Leake, Frazier, Boxberger.

No offense man, but I hope you aren't afraid of disappointment. A guy can dream I guess. :D