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Benihana
07-28-2011, 03:11 PM
The optimist inside me wants to say that you need to cut the FO a break if they can't pull a Shields/King Felix/Ubaldo by Sunday because they may be requiring a Chapman or Mesoraco, which I don't know if I would do. But the guy who has watched the last three Reds' games and seen the Reds languish around .500 all year, agrees with you. I really want the Reds to pull in an ace at the deadline or I do believe I will be disappointed.

I believe the Rox are insisting on either Chapman or Bailey (in addition to Grandal and an OF like Heisey/Francisco/Frazier). That's the hang-up.

I think Grandal + Alonso + one arm (Wood or Volquez might suffice here) and a B/C prospect could fetch Shields.

Which one of these two deals would you prefer? Crazy that after a three-day frenzy, we've heard almost zero Reds rumors in the last 24 hours. Quiet before the storm or quiet before the nap?

mdccclxix
07-28-2011, 03:21 PM
I believe the Rox are insisting on either Chapman or Bailey (in addition to Grandal and an OF like Heisey/Francisco/Frazier). That's the hang-up.

I think Grandal + Alonso + one arm (Wood or Volquez might suffice here) and a B/C prospect could fetch Shields.

Which one of these two deals would you prefer? Crazy that after a three-day frenzy, we've heard almost zero Reds rumors in the last 24 hours. Quiet before the storm or quiet before the nap?

I think their hopes have been dashed by this homestand. I really doubt we see much happening now. Walt is asleep at the switch.

corkedbat
07-28-2011, 03:29 PM
Here's what you think the Reds should get by spring training: An ace or two, clean up hitter in LF, power arm closer, starting 3B, and a replacement for BP.

Here's what you don't want to give up: Mesoraco, Chapman, Grandal, Bailey, Leake, Frazier, Boxberger.

No offense man, but I hope you aren't afraid of disappointment. A guy can dream I guess. :D

* The least likely thing is is two TORs - the only reason I said two was that while really not likely, I think the Reds could possibly have the pieces to lad both Shields AND Jiminez. I think there's a much better chance one is here by Monday though. I didn't say we HAD to have TWO though.

* this club MUST add a bat to this lineup before spring training. I like Yonder, Sappelt and Heia righty is notsey to one extent or another, but each is either not a legitimate OFer or a legitimate Corner OFer. This club needs corner OFer who can both provide punch and play real OF defense (not a 1B hiding in LF). I'm fine with Heisey and or Sappelt in CF if Stuvvs is dealt, but they are more 4th OFers than corner OfFers on a contending club. I don't think it wil be easy or cheap. That's one reason I proposed the Ludwick "audition." I'd much prefer Kemp or either, but Ludwick might surprise at less talent and monetary cost.

* this club does need to add a power lefty to the mix if it is planning to move Arolids to the rotation. They may be content to leave him in the pen(in which case this is moot). If he is to be a starter, they nedd a late-inning lefty. I'm not talking a superstar major acquisition here at all by any means. There are young guys out there that caoa be had in a lesser deal or as part of another deal

* likewise, with a RH power arm. I'm not saying we need a perrineal all star. I would like to add another candidate to the mix for the closer spot and late inning spots between now and Spring training. It could be a minor standalone deal, an addition to a larger trade or even a relatively minor offseason free agent signing

* they might not even need a 3B . Rolen maybe able to bounce back and Frazier might do fine though. That doesn't mean I wouldn't add a young 3B if could to bolster the position. A LH/SH would be nice for versatility.This team is weak at to corner spots (3B/LF). Not a good thing for a presumptive contender. Again, it could be a more minor deal or as part of a larger one. It is not a high priority - that is why it is 4 out of five on the list.

* the middle infielder is totally optional, not a necessity and that is why it is the least of the five priorities. Again, it could be a more minor deal or a throw-in in a wider deal. Chances are good that BP will not be upped. Now is the time to be thinking about a possible replacement. If you can find somebody in deals you are already making, do it - that's all I'm saying here.

The last two deals are by no means top priorities, but I have to admit that addin a MI and 3B candidate that is either a lefty or a switch-hitter would really balance things out if you added them to Votto, Phillips, Cozart and Frazier in the Reds infield.

As for being able to deal with disappointment? I've been a loyal Reds, Bengals and UK football for more than 40 years - I know disappointment. :D I can can handle it just fine.

Maybe I should have called the list Improvement Targets instead of priorites - I'm not saying they have to fill all of them or by this weekend to have a decent club. Just saying that if they do address these five areas they are going to be a much-improved team now and going forward. I'm not saying it will be easy either, by any means. I do thing that if managed right, it is doable.

Edd Roush
07-28-2011, 03:29 PM
I believe the Rox are insisting on either Chapman or Bailey (in addition to Grandal and an OF like Heisey/Francisco/Frazier). That's the hang-up.

I think Grandal + Alonso + one arm (Wood or Volquez might suffice here) and a B/C prospect could fetch Shields.

Which one of these two deals would you prefer? Crazy that after a three-day frenzy, we've heard almost zero Reds rumors in the last 24 hours. Quiet before the storm or quiet before the nap?

I want the second deal and it's not even close. I like that Shields has an extra year on his deal and I really want my rotation to be ace/Cueto/Bailey/Chapman/Leake with Arroyo as my really expensive long-man.

My lineup is hurt in 2012 and the forseeable future with no Grandal and Alonso, but I'm not sure that Alonso can play left still and Grandal is blocked by Mes.

After this trade, the Reds still need to trade for a lead-off hitting LF in my opinion. Heisey + non-Mesoraco prospects should get that done. Fukudome might be a good signing in the off-season if he is not a Type A free agent and we cannot complete a trade for young LF.

wolfboy
07-28-2011, 03:34 PM
As for being able to deal with disappointment? I've been a loyal Reds, Bengals and UK football for more than 40 years - I know disappointment. :D I can can handle it just fine.

:beerme: Cheers to that.

I think your list is spot on, but I think they can have a lot of success without getting every one. I also think they'll have to move guys that most of us aren't comfortable parting with in order to address some needs.

Benihana
07-28-2011, 03:44 PM
I think their hopes have been dashed by this homestand. I really doubt we see much happening now. Walt is asleep at the switch.


Forget the homestand. You've identified the real problem.

I don't see any reason why this homestand (whether it's knocked them out of contention or not) should have any impact on a Jimenez or Shields acquisition. Both are TOR arms under team control for multiple years. If they're available, you get them now, regardless of whether you're in first place or last place.

corkedbat
07-28-2011, 03:45 PM
Here's what you don't want to give up: Mesoraco, Chapman, Grandal, Bailey, Leake, Frazier, Boxberger. :D

I said I WOULD NOT give up Mesaraco and Chapman only.

I would give up one of Leake/Bailey in a deal for Jiminez, Shields or LF bat but not both.

I used to have Grandal rght up there with Mesaraco and Chapman. It would still really hurt to lose him, but since we already have Mes and since there is such a premium on catching, I would be more than willing to deal him now (for the right return). By including Grandal as a principal on one deal might mean I could include one or even two fewer pieces in that deal. I could then turn around and possibly use them to acquire one of the other pieces on my list.

Frazier and Boxberger would be avaialbe in any deal and I wouldn't think twice about including them in a package if that is what it took. Because of Frazier's versatilty and the need at 3B and because of the need to replace Coco next year, I would just try to maneuver and substitue other prospects if I could.

I would want to come out of this offseaon with Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Bruce, Mesaraco, Cueto and Chapman. Every other player in the organization would be available in one combintation or the other to meet those five needs and I might be able to fill the reliever spots with middling Free Agents deals.

traderumor
07-28-2011, 03:49 PM
I think their hopes have been dashed by this homestand. I really doubt we see much happening now. Walt is asleep at the switch.Those are two pretty big deals that the Reds are unashamedly in the middle of with Shields and Jimenez. And they address one of the Reds biggest needs right now. It takes two sides to agree, so I'm not sure that is fair.

Benihana
07-28-2011, 03:50 PM
Ask and ye shall receive:


The Reds have "stepped up their calls this week on controllable middle-of-the-order bats," although it's hard to name any available hitters of that nature.


The Rockies' asking price for Jimenez "remains very, very high," tweets ESPN's Buster Olney, as in three top prospects. There's been no significant movement in the Jimenez market, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

OnBaseMachine
07-28-2011, 03:52 PM
The full blurb from Jayson Stark:


The Reds continue to look for a top-of-the-rotation starter they can control beyond this year, which would explain their pursuit of Jimenez and James Shields. But they also stepped up their calls this week on controllable middle-of-the-order bats. About the only name that fits that description and is theoretically available is Pence. But skepticism has never been higher in the industry that the Astros are seriously interested in trading him before the offseason -- if ever.



http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110728/san-diego-padres-narrowing-focus-potential-deals

Will M
07-28-2011, 03:55 PM
Forget the homestand. You've identified the real problem.

I don't see any reason why this homestand (whether it's knocked them out of contention or not) should have any impact on a Jimenez or Shields acquisition. Both are TOR arms under team control for multiple years. If they're available, you get them now, regardless of whether you're in first place or last place.

agree.

however, the Reds losing 4 in a row should have an impact on other guys. ie,
1) trade Ramon
2) trade Cordero if we can get any value out of him. the money is water under the bridge. eat however much we have to & try to get a prospect or two.
3) I'd deal Renteria today if a team was desperate for a SS. so what if Cozart isn't back for a week or ten days.
4) Cairo is a great guy but his role on the team can be played by Frazier in 2012
5) Lewis is also expendable

Basically I'd like to see the Reds get Ubaldo and/or Shields if they are available. 2012 rotation would be...
1) ace
2) Cueto
3) Bailey (always a health risk)
4) Leake
5) Arroyo (we are stuck with him)
6) Chapman who will be on an innings limit
7) Wood if he isn't dealth for said ace or a left fielder

other than getting an ace the 2011 season now becomes trading anyone who won't be here next year for any value they have. most don't have any value. Ramon does. Cordero I suspect does if we eat salary.

the team will still have issues for 2012 (LF, pen/closer, etc) but these could be addressed in the off season. i'd be all for fixing them now if we could but at this point i'd be happy if we could get an ace & trade Ramon and Cordero for value.

corkedbat
07-28-2011, 03:57 PM
:beerme: Cheers to that.

I think your list is spot on, but I think they can have a lot of success without getting every one. I also think they'll have to move guys that most of us aren't comfortable parting with in order to address some needs.

Oh, I agree. I just think that individually, each one of those points is addressable. As a whole, its much harde , but still doable.

It's like going to the grocery store. You make your list, you prioritize, your get what you can (maybe gong with what's on sale, a cheaper brand or a generic) and you make do with what you already had if something isn't available or is too expensive for your budget.

CrackerJack
07-28-2011, 03:59 PM
So the Rockies want Bailey, Wood and Mesoraco - hmm...

Take out Mesoraco and throw-in a young top prospect position player (or two) and I'd do that.

I(heart)Freel
07-28-2011, 04:08 PM
Coco could pass waivers and be dealt next week.

Focus on the BIG trades for which we're hearing rumblings/rumors, and focus on Ramon this week. Get what you can.

Then turn attention to Coco (and to a lesser extent Renteria) after the first deadline.

corkedbat
07-28-2011, 04:25 PM
So the Rockies want Bailey, Wood and Mesoraco - hmm...

Take out Mesoraco and throw-in a young top prospect position player (or two) and I'd do that.

* I'd go Bailey, Wood and Stubbs as principals on the Reds side for Jiminez( and maybe a minor leaguer or two on either side to balance things as needed).

* I'd try to build another deal for Shields starting with a combination of Grandal, Volquez, Heisey, Alonzo, YRod, Janish and minor leaguers

* if i swung a deal like the one mention previously for Fister, I'd be willing to turn around and include him in in one of the other deals or for a bat

* I'd use anything left over in thse two deals above to shape a deal for Ludwick wand Bell/Adams

* I'd deal Hernandez for a young LH reliever to free Chapman for the rotation next year.

* I'd try to deal Cordero (and any cash needed) plus prospects for anything useful - not sure its possible, but I'd do it ina second

* You never know what might appeal to one club and hold no interest to another. Someone might be really high on say, HRod of Josh Smith or Tony Barnhardt while another might have no interest at all. While most discussion on this board revolve aroung major leaguers and AAA guys for other Major Leguers or AAA guys. Lower level guys could be what pushes a deal over the top too (and maybe not the guys you think.

* Likewise, if I'm GM, while guys like Shields, Jiminez, a LFer, etc. are my main targets. If there's a young guy I like, I try to expand the deal. A young 3B or MI would be nice, but talent should always be primary. Get the right talent and it can be flipped to fill need in another deal at another time.

Reds Fanatic
07-28-2011, 04:25 PM
Coco could pass waivers and be dealt next week.

Focus on the BIG trades for which we're hearing rumblings/rumors, and focus on Ramon this week. Get what you can.

Then turn attention to Coco (and to a lesser extent Renteria) after the first deadline.

The one trade I fully expect is Ramon to be traded to the Giants this weekend. The Giants are looking for a catcher and this seems like a perfect fit. Trade Ramon and bring Mesaraco up.

wolfboy
07-28-2011, 04:40 PM
The one trade I fully expect is Ramon to be traded to the Giants this weekend. The Giants are looking for a catcher and this seems like a perfect fit. Trade Ramon and bring Mesaraco up.

Sounds like a good idea to me. I'd love to see what Mesoraco can do.

Edd Roush
07-28-2011, 04:43 PM
* I'd go Bailey, Wood and Stubbs as principals on the Reds side for Jiminez( and maybe a minor leaguer or two on either side to balance things as needed).

Please God no. That's an awful trade. Stubbs is controllable for a while and is already above average and Bailey is still a big part of the future of this rotation. I like Wood, still. Although, I would include him in a deal for Shields/Ubaldo. I really don't want to deal Bailey or Stubbs for an ace and if that means I don't get an ace, I'm okay with that. We have enough in the minors to make a move without depleting our major league roster.

corkedbat
07-28-2011, 05:03 PM
Please God no. That's an awful trade. Stubbs is controllable for a while and is already above average and Bailey is still a big part of the future of this rotation. I like Wood, still. Although, I would include him in a deal for Shields/Ubaldo. I really don't want to deal Bailey or Stubbs for an ace and if that means I don't get an ace, I'm okay with that. We have enough in the minors to make a move without depleting our major league roster.

I'd rather keep Stubbs, Homer and Grandall too. If I have to use one (or all three) to meet my goals AND keep Mesaraco I'd seriously consider it. I'd prefer to keep Stubbs in CG, but if I landed Ubaldo and Shields and a corner OF bat with his inclusion, I could live with Heisey/Sappelt in CG.

I don't believe you need to include Stubbs, Bailey or Grandal to obtain Jimminez, but to get Jiminez AND Shields, I'd do it. This is just and academic discuassion anyways. I don't see us getting both.

signalhome
07-28-2011, 05:07 PM
http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/334929/ludwick-not-in-padres-lineup-thursday


Ryan Ludwick is not in the starting lineup for Thursday's game against the Diamondbacks.
There's nothing official yet, but the San Diego Union-Tribune is hearing rumblings that "a trade could be going down." Jon Heyman of SI.com reported this morning that the Phillies, Braves, Reds and Indians were all pursuing the 33-year-old outfielder. There's a good chance he'll be dealt before the July 31 deadline.

traderumor
07-28-2011, 05:10 PM
Ludwick just became less interesting for the Reds. He was probably a short-timer, and we just officially flopped.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-28-2011, 05:12 PM
http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/334929/ludwick-not-in-padres-lineup-thursday

Well you can cross the Indians off the Ludwick list. And I certainly hope after today's loss that you can cross the Reds off too. Walt and Dusty should in no way be given a chance to consider Ludwick as the answer to the Reds' LF problem.

OnBaseMachine
07-28-2011, 05:23 PM
From Jayson Stark:

Interest in Pence exploding since Beltran trade (Phillies, Braves, Reds, Red Sox). Astros have "open mind. More in Rumor Central #trades

http://twitter.com/#!/jaysonst

Edd Roush
07-28-2011, 05:33 PM
I'd rather keep Stubbs, Homer and Grandall too. If I have to use one (or all three) to meet my goals AND keep Mesaraco I'd seriously consider it. I'd prefer to keep Stubbs in CG, but if I landed Ubaldo and Shields and a corner OF bat with his inclusion, I could live with Heisey/Sappelt in CG.

I don't believe you need to include Stubbs, Bailey or Grandal to obtain Jimminez, but to get Jiminez AND Shields, I'd do it. This is just and academic discuassion anyways. I don't see us getting both.

Well, you hypothetically dealt Bailey and Stubbs in the same deal for Ubaldo. It Stubbs was the main piece you were dealing for Ubaldo, I could accept it, but I think there is a major drop off from Stubbs to Heisey or Sappelt.

I wouldn't trade Bailey unless it's straight up for Ubaldo or Shields. You are filling a hole in the rotation by creating another.

Benihana
07-28-2011, 05:38 PM
The one trade I fully expect is Ramon to be traded to the Giants this weekend. The Giants are looking for a catcher and this seems like a perfect fit. Trade Ramon and bring Mesaraco up.

According to MLBTR, they're also looking at a SS. Package their WS hero Renteria with Ramon to juice the return. Problem is they are less likely to deal top pitching prospects after just trading their best for Beltran.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-28-2011, 05:42 PM
According to MLBTR, they're also looking at a SS. Package their WS hero Renteria with Ramon to juice the return. Problem is they are less likely to deal top pitching prospects after just trading their best for Beltran.

But if they're going for the whole thing one more time before their window starts to close, they just might part with another pitching prospect.

Edd Roush
07-28-2011, 05:45 PM
According to MLBTR, they're also looking at a SS. Package their WS hero Renteria with Ramon to juice the return. Problem is they are less likely to deal top pitching prospects after just trading their best for Beltran.

I would much rather have Surkamp than Wheeler.

I would give them Renteria for the proverbial bucket of balls.

corkedbat
07-28-2011, 05:45 PM
Well you can cross the Indians off the Ludwick list. And I certainly hope after today's loss that you can cross the Reds off too. Walt and Dusty should in no way be given a chance to consider Ludwick as the answer to the Reds' LF problem.

Would depend on three questions to be answered by Walt.

1) What would it take to acquire him?

2) Would there be a reliever to the in the package in it also?

3) Would the Reds reasonably able to sign Ludwick to an affordable deal if he thrives?


If his anwers are "Something we can live with", "Yes" and "Yes", then maybe you still consider it, otherwise pass.

2011 should bear no real weight on any deals. Start to get things lined up now for 2012 (most of this should have been addressed last year). Any 2011 success from deals now should be considered Collateral Improvement.

Edd Roush
07-28-2011, 05:47 PM
From Jayson Stark:

Interest in Pence exploding since Beltran trade (Phillies, Braves, Reds, Red Sox). Astros have "open mind. More in Rumor Central #trades

http://twitter.com/#!/jaysonst

I really like Hunter Pence. He's not very splitty and he seems to slug enough to be a cleanup hitter. He has had a positive UZR until this year, so I think he can be at least adequate in left.

Would anyone trade Stubbs straight up for him? What would it cost?

klw
07-28-2011, 05:49 PM
As posted by Plus Plus in the Dusty Hot seat thread
http://twitter.com/#!/JohnnySmith28/status/96673816763301888


@JohnnySmith28
Johnny Smith
Announcement coming tomorrow. Baker out, Morgan likely in until the end of the season.

RedsManRick
07-28-2011, 05:49 PM
Pence is Chris Heisey with a bit more contact and a lot more playing time. Very similar players.

Edd Roush
07-28-2011, 05:50 PM
As posted by Plus Plus in the Dusty Hot seat thread
http://twitter.com/#!/JohnnySmith28/status/96673816763301888

Who is Johnny Smith?

Edd Roush
07-28-2011, 05:51 PM
Pence is Chris Heisey with a bit more contact and a lot more playing time. Very similar players.

I can see Heisey being Pence Light...

Less slugging ability and less OBP. I just don't see Heisey turning into a Pence like player, but I don't think I would trade much for a slight upgrade.

Danny Serafini
07-28-2011, 05:53 PM
Who is Johnny Smith?

No one who should be listened to. He magically appeared, said there was a major deal going down with his first tweet, which of course didn't happen, then disappeared until now.

Edd Roush
07-28-2011, 05:54 PM
No one who should be listened to. He magically appeared, said there was a major deal going down with his first tweet, which of course didn't happen, then disappeared until now.

Just read the Dusty should be fired thread and someone said that he first reported the Cozart move...

klw
07-28-2011, 05:55 PM
"Smith" is the guy who had Cozart coming up though he had it as being Renteria being DFA's initially. See here http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=90578&highlight=JohnnySmith28&page=5

Danny Serafini
07-28-2011, 05:55 PM
Went back and looked. He reported Renteria DFA, well before Cozart came up, and obviously no DFA for Edgar. Not trustworthy.

Edd Roush
07-28-2011, 05:56 PM
Went back and looked. He reported Renteria DFA, well before Cozart came up, and obviously no DFA for Edgar. Not trustworthy.

OK, thanks. So the consensus around here is that Joe would be a poor manager, correct? Due to his lack of knowledge of modern statistics?

RedsManRick
07-28-2011, 05:57 PM
I can see Heisey being Pence Light...

Less slugging ability and less OBP. I just don't see Heisey turning into a Pence like player, but I don't think I would trade much for a slight upgrade.

Less OBP coming from less contact and thus lower average. But Heisey's got a .195 ISO to Pence's .189. Both are 20-25 HR type guys. Biggest difference comes from Pence making more contact on balls in the zone - doesn't swing and miss quite as much. Otherwise, very close.

That's my point, you'd be buying half a win at most, maybe less if you think Heisey's got a defensive edge. He's just not an upgrade.

Unassisted
07-28-2011, 05:57 PM
Went back and looked. He reported Renteria DFA, well before Cozart came up, and obviously no DFA for Edgar. Not trustworthy.Maybe he just needs a better stethoscope to use on Jocketty's door? :D

klw
07-28-2011, 05:57 PM
Smith backed off on the Renteria part before the announcement, indicated inside knowledge.

camisadelgolf
07-28-2011, 05:58 PM
OK, thanks. So the consensus around here is that Joe would be a poor manager, correct? Due to his lack of knowledge of modern statistics?
My biggest concern is Joe Morgan and Mike Leake being in the same locker room together.
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/13867227/cincinnati-deserves-this-fun-successful-reds-team

Plus Plus
07-28-2011, 06:00 PM
Who is Johnny Smith?

Johnny Smith is a very peculiar name for a very peculiar twitter account. When Cozart was on the brink of his promotion to Cincinnati, this account tweeted that he was going to be promoted and that Renteria was going to be DFAed to make room, but later said that the potential DFA of Renteria was causing problems in the FO. This was about 6-12 hours (iirc, after thinking hard) before other bloggers picked up the move. This account is made even more interesting because it doesn't wreak of the fame hunger that accounts that will often make posts about moves (see- @NFLDraftInsider and the recent drama with the account), because of the few number of posts and re-tweets that the account has. As further evidence that this account is bizzare, all tweets from before July 20th have been deleted. This account also stated that a deal is in place with undisclosed players and a west coast team, and has been since early July. That post has also been deleted.

Speculation is that this account belongs to a "mole" in the Reds front office, and that the earlier tweets were deleted after some of the higher-ups found out that information was being leaked.

So what we could have here is a mole in the front office, and one that is only stating decisions that have been made and not ones that are in the process of being made. I would never say that this account is a reliable source of information regarding moves, but it is a curious one that could prove to be shedding some light on a very interesting development.

Tony Cloninger
07-28-2011, 06:01 PM
Less OBP coming from less contact and thus lower average. But Heisey's got a .195 ISO to Pence's .189. Both are 20-25 HR type guys. Biggest difference comes from Pence making more contact on balls in the zone - doesn't swing and miss quite as much. Otherwise, very close.

That's my point, you'd be buying half a win at most, maybe less if you think Heisey's got a defensive edge. He's just not an upgrade.

all i see with Hesiey is his power right now......but not that great anywhere else. I don't know why this board undervalues Pence.

Kc61
07-28-2011, 06:01 PM
Less OBP coming from less contact and thus lower average. But Heisey's got a .195 ISO to Pence's .189. Both are 20-25 HR type guys. Biggest difference comes from Pence making more contact on balls in the zone - doesn't swing and miss quite as much. Otherwise, very close.

That's my point, you'd be buying half a win at most, maybe less if you think Heisey's got a defensive edge. He's just not an upgrade.

I'm sure all your statistics are correct and your argument well reasoned.

But Hunter Pence is not an upgrade over Chris Heisey?

I think that conclusion is, well, counter-intuitive.

Pence would be a good addition. But since he is not a power guy, I wouldn't give up the farm. For a reasonable deal, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

Plus Plus
07-28-2011, 06:03 PM
Went back and looked. He reported Renteria DFA, well before Cozart came up, and obviously no DFA for Edgar. Not trustworthy.

To be fair, he qualified the Renteria DFA by saying that it was the move in place, but that it was causing issues within the organization as the solution to calling up Cozart. I wouldn't say that he was wrong, but just that he wasn't 100% right.

traderumor
07-28-2011, 06:04 PM
I'm sure all your statistics are correct and your argument well reasoned.

But Hunter Pence is not an upgrade over Chris Heisey?

I think that conclusion is, well, counter-intuitive.

Pence would be a good addition. But since he is not a power guy, I wouldn't give up the farm. For a reasonable deal, I'd take him in a hearbeat.
I'd question if Pence is what he is vs. Heisey still a bit of projection needed due to his limited/sporadic PT. With that assumption, give me Heisey. Plus, Pence is goofy. ;)

RedLegSuperStar
07-28-2011, 06:13 PM
I think Ludwick is going to end up with this team. He has been rumored to be targeted by the Reds for months.. its cooled off as of late but little tid bits have leaked that Reds still have interest. He is a St. Louis guy and Walt loves him some Cardinals. Plus he is a good defender and has some pop. I'd take it now and move Heisey to CF. Stubbs can either head to Louisville or ride the bench.

klw
07-28-2011, 06:14 PM
Morgan has a weekly radio show starting in about 3 weeks.
http://www.mediabistro.com/sportsnewser/joe-morgan-getting-new-weekday-radio-show_b10745

He is also on Twitter. He last posted a month ago so he is obviously in stealth mode.

RedLegSuperStar
07-28-2011, 06:17 PM
Morgan has a weekly radio show starting in about 3 weeks.
http://www.mediabistro.com/sportsnewser/joe-morgan-getting-new-weekday-radio-show_b10745

He is also on Twitter. He last posted a month ago so he is obviously in stealth mode.

He also has a Honda Dealership that I believe opened up a couple of months ago

757690
07-28-2011, 06:19 PM
I don't see Heisey ever breaking the .800 OPS mark as a full time player. He's a 6-8 hitter in the lineup.

Pence should OPS .800-850 in GABP. He's a middle of the lineup hitter.

Pence isn't the best answer to the Reds' offensive needs, but Heisey isn't an answer at all, IMO.

Patrick Bateman
07-28-2011, 06:27 PM
I'm sure all your statistics are correct and your argument well reasoned.

But Hunter Pence is not an upgrade over Chris Heisey?

I think that conclusion is, well, counter-intuitive.

Pence would be a good addition. But since he is not a power guy, I wouldn't give up the farm. For a reasonable deal, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

I have him pegged as a 3.5 WAR guy going forward. His fielding numbers have dropped to around average the last year and a half, but over his career that is probably sellinghim short. Heisey is probably more like a 2.5 WAR guy over a full season's worth of plate appearances.

So how much would I give up for a 1 WAR upgrade that is going to cost about 8-10M next year? Well, he's going to be paid probably a little less than market rate, so he's got a fair contract. If you could keep Heisey, it would give you 4 pretty good OF'ders that could be thrown out there, and there is almost always enough at-bats for 4 guys. So in that sense the team could probably improve by 1.5-2 WAR with a trade for him.

It's not a bad idea from an overall standpoint, but I don't think he's as big an upgrade as it looks on paperfor the resources required (nearly FMV contract for the purposes of the upgrade over internal solutions + value in trade required).

I'd personally rather throw the extra money and resources towards the pitching staff.

RedsManRick
07-28-2011, 06:30 PM
I'm sure all your statistics are correct and your argument well reasoned.

But Hunter Pence is not an upgrade over Chris Heisey?

I think that conclusion is, well, counter-intuitive.

Pence would be a good addition. But since he is not a power guy, I wouldn't give up the farm. For a reasonable deal, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

Ok, perhaps saying he's "not an upgrade" is too harsh. He's better than Chris Heisey, but not by a ton. He's not going to sustain a .367 BABIP. He's a .290/.338/.479 (.352 wOBA) career hitter who plays an average to above average RF. Heisey is a career .251/.316/.446 (.331 wOBA) who plays an above average LF/RF. 20 points of wOBA, over 600 PA, is ~10 runs. 10 runs is about 1 win, a bit more these days. We'd have Pence for about 200 PA this year. Let's just call the defense a wash. How much are you willing to pay for 3 or 4 extra runs?

Is he an upgrade? Yes. A minor one. If you want to be generous and say he will maintain a .367 BABIP the rest of this season, he'd be worth about 8 runs more than Heisey. How much would you give up for a win? Would you trade Homer Bailey? Travis Wood? Grandal? Boxberger? Sappelt? It'd probably take a combination.

Would I take him for free? In a heartbeat. Will he make a difference for us this year? No, not really. And he's set to make about $10M in arbitration next year. I'm not giving up good, cheap talent to add 1/3 of a win and $2M in payroll this year and 1 win and $10M in payroll next year.

When it comes to adding offense, use whatever numbers you want. 10 points of wOBA = 5 runs over the course of a season, 1-2 runs over the remainder of this season. I know how much we like to play the grass is greener game around here. Let's say we're going to get a .300 wOBA out of LF if we do nothing and could acquire a .400 wOBA bat. That difference is worth 50 runs over the course of a year, about 20 over what's left this year. So even a move on that scale. Put a good fielding Joey Votto twin in LF and we've still got 4+ games to make up.

mdccclxix
07-28-2011, 06:30 PM
Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal
#Reds in 4th place, 6 out. Rolen, Cozart on DL. Rival GM on Jocketty's course; "Seems like he isn't sure right now."

LOL, no joke.

RedLegSuperStar
07-28-2011, 06:45 PM
I could see Ludwick being out of todays game as rest.. or the fact he hasn't been able to hit in his last 10 games.. we will see

corkedbat
07-28-2011, 06:56 PM
OK, thanks. So the consensus around here is that Joe would be a poor manager, correct? Due to his lack of knowledge of modern statistics?

I think there would definitely be fire in the clubhouse, but not sure how good a manager he'd make.

klw
07-28-2011, 07:13 PM
A new Tweet from Johnny Smith
http://twitter.com/#!/JohnnySmith28


JohnnySmith28 Johnny Smith
Start your weekend off right at GABP for the Reds and Giants followed by 60's firework's show. FIrst pitch @ 7:10.
19 minutes ago

Clearly this must have a hidden meaning. Maybe the new guy isn't Morgan but rather someone from the 60's. Bench? Rose getting reinstated? Is the miscapitalization of FIrst a hint somehow? He doesnt # the words like Reds and Giants. Clearly he is trying to stay on the down low.
Very intriguing.

757690
07-28-2011, 07:22 PM
A new Tweet from Johnny Smith
http://twitter.com/#!/JohnnySmith28



Clearly this must have a hidden meaning. Maybe the new guy isn't Morgan but rather someone from the 60's. Bench? Rose getting reinstated? Is the miscapitalization of FIrst a hint somehow? He doesnt # the words like Reds and Giants. Clearly he is trying to stay on the down low.
Very intriguing.

Morgan was a rookie in 1965.

klw
07-28-2011, 07:23 PM
Morgan was a rookie in 1965.

But he didn't join the Reds til the 70's.

PuffyPig
07-28-2011, 07:23 PM
A new Tweet from Johnny Smith
http://twitter.com/#!/JohnnySmith28



Clearly this must have a hidden meaning. Maybe the new guy isn't Morgan but rather someone from the 60's. Bench? Rose getting reinstated? Is the miscapitalization of FIrst a hint somehow? He doesnt # the words like Reds and Giants. Clearly he is trying to stay on the down low.
Very intriguing.


I think the reference to starting your weekend off "right" means we are trading for "Wright" from the Mets.

No other logical explanation.

Redsfan320
07-28-2011, 07:26 PM
JohnnySmith28 Johnny Smith
Start your weekend off right at GABP for the Reds and Giants followed by 60's firework's show. FIrst pitch @ 7:10.
19 minutes ago

This doesn't quite fit here. It should be "with" or "as the Reds play/ take on, etc. the Giants". Where "for" does fit is in "The new manager played for the Reds and Giants". Now obviously this is all in jest, but while we're here... yeah.

EDIT: Joe Morgan played for the Giants after the Reds.

320

BuckeyeRedleg
07-28-2011, 07:26 PM
Would love to have David Wright.

And since Rolen will be done soon, how about trying him next year as a player/manager, with the eventual move to full-time manger for 2013.

Patrick Bateman
07-28-2011, 07:35 PM
Would love to have David Wright.

And since Rolen will be done soon, how about trying him next year as a player/manager, with the eventual move to full-time manger for 2013.

Well that's insane.

Morgan would be a much more logical candidate for player/manager.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-28-2011, 07:36 PM
Well that's insane.

Morgan would be a much more logical candidate for player/manager.

uhh, ok.

OnBaseMachine
07-28-2011, 07:37 PM
From Jayson Stark:

Exec of team that spoke w/ #Astros this afternoon came away w/ feeling they've made headway on Hunter Pence deal. 6 teams still in. #trades

http://twitter.com/jaysonst

Oxilon
07-28-2011, 07:50 PM
Would love to have David Wright.

And since Rolen will be done soon, how about trying him next year as a player/manager, with the eventual move to full-time manger for 2013.

Think David Wright would be a fantastic target as well. However, since it looks like the Mets are going to resign Reyes, I don't think they would trade Wright.

OnBaseMachine
07-28-2011, 07:56 PM
From Danny Knobler:

Reds were awful this week and are now 6 games out, but they're still looking to add. They're one of many in on Pence. #tradedeadline

http://twitter.com/DKnobler

klw
07-28-2011, 08:00 PM
Pence, Quentin would make sense.

With the whole Baker/ Morgan thing we could be making the mistake that it is Joe Morgan. It could be Morgan Grimes.

‪Captain Awesome Shows Morgan How it's Done‬‏ - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URqOIJ31mtg)

camisadelgolf
07-28-2011, 08:10 PM
The Reds aren't going to trade for a $15M David Wright rental and tell Rolen plus his no-trade clause that he has to sit on the bench.

Tom Servo
07-28-2011, 08:21 PM
I'd still love to see the Reds add Carlos Quentin.

kaldaniels
07-28-2011, 08:31 PM
Where did the money come from. All winter long Fay banged the drum saying the Reds couldn't add payroll.

Always Red
07-28-2011, 09:04 PM
Harry Wright? George Wright?

I'm thinking a National Treasure type thing...

Big Klu
07-28-2011, 09:40 PM
Johnny Smith is a very peculiar name for a very peculiar twitter account. When Cozart was on the brink of his promotion to Cincinnati, this account tweeted that he was going to be promoted and that Renteria was going to be DFAed to make room, but later said that the potential DFA of Renteria was causing problems in the FO. This was about 6-12 hours (iirc, after thinking hard) before other bloggers picked up the move. This account is made even more interesting because it doesn't wreak of the fame hunger that accounts that will often make posts about moves (see- @NFLDraftInsider and the recent drama with the account), because of the few number of posts and re-tweets that the account has. As further evidence that this account is bizzare, all tweets from before July 20th have been deleted. This account also stated that a deal is in place with undisclosed players and a west coast team, and has been since early July. That post has also been deleted.

Speculation is that this account belongs to a "mole" in the Reds front office, and that the earlier tweets were deleted after some of the higher-ups found out that information was being leaked.

So what we could have here is a mole in the front office, and one that is only stating decisions that have been made and not ones that are in the process of being made. I would never say that this account is a reliable source of information regarding moves, but it is a curious one that could prove to be shedding some light on a very interesting development.



And how do you flush out a mole? With plausible misinformation. If the Reds suspect that they have a mole in their midst, then they will make up a lie that sounds legitimate, and sees if it spreads wings and flies. A rumor about Baker getting the ax after a disappointing four-game sweep would be just the thing.

pahster
07-28-2011, 09:53 PM
And how do you flush out a mole? With plausible misinformation. If the Reds suspect that they have a mole in their midst, then they will make up a lie that sounds legitimate, and sees if it spreads wings and flies. A rumor about Baker getting the ax after a disappointing four-game sweep would be just the thing.

I think Redszone is being trolled.

Big Klu
07-28-2011, 09:55 PM
I think Redszone is being trolled.

Very likely.

klw
07-28-2011, 10:05 PM
Mr. Smith, if that is his real name, has deleted all of his tweets again.

http://twitter.com/#!/JohnnySmith28

RedsManRick
07-28-2011, 10:12 PM
Strikes me as some younger employee/intern who has the need to send out the whispers he hears but doesn't want to get anybody in trouble or really make waves.

Caveat Emperor
07-28-2011, 10:22 PM
Strikes me as some younger employee/intern who has the need to send out the whispers he hears but doesn't want to get anybody in trouble or really make waves.

If I had information I wanted to leak, one of the first things I would do in this day and age would be to create a twitter account anonymously and start posting -- maybe doing a couple @'s to get some attention.

I'm actually *very* interested in the fact that the 2nd message out was a Reds promotional message.

A lot of people who are in charge of internet / media often maintain multiple twitter accounts and post from a single phone / terminal. Sometimes things get cross-pollinated by mistake. There was a very high profile incident a few months ago about the person who maintained the twitter account for Chrysler tweeting out some negative things about Detroit on the account -- he had been intending to send it out on his personal twitter account but had not double-checked to see which account he was logged in on and posting to. Instead of him complaining about Detroit on his personal twitter, he sent out negative stuff about the city on the official Chrysler twitter. Got the guy canned and lost a huge contract for his media consulting company.

It's entirely possible this "JohnnySmith" is with the Reds in some media/marketing/internet capacity and screwed up posting a Reds promotional tweet to his fake account.

Or, I could be way off base and it's just someone mucking about.

jojo
07-28-2011, 10:25 PM
I think it's FCB....

Edd Roush
07-28-2011, 10:36 PM
Pence, Quentin would make sense.

With the whole Baker/ Morgan thing we could be making the mistake that it is Joe Morgan. It could be Morgan Grimes.

‪Captain Awesome Shows Morgan How it's Done‬‏ - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URqOIJ31mtg)

I would be 100x more excited for Morgan Grimes than I would be for Joe Morgan. Especialy considering that he now has the intersect...

savafan
07-28-2011, 10:39 PM
I don't have a link, and the money situation with the contract makes no sense to me, but I just spoke to a friend whose brother works in the Reds scouting department and he told me that his brother said the team has at least inquired as to Seattles' interest in possibly dealing King Felix saying that if the team, "...was going to go big, they'd like to make a big splash." He also said that Hanley Ramirez's name was mentioned. Again, the contract situation makes me think that it's not plausible, even with Cordero coming off the books next year with a $1 million buyout. Both these players make crazy money.

savafan
07-28-2011, 10:43 PM
Mr. Smith, if that is his real name, has deleted all of his tweets again.

http://twitter.com/#!/JohnnySmith28

It's interesting that I know a Johnny that works in the Reds' office, and is 28 years old. His name isn't Smith though.

jojo
07-28-2011, 10:44 PM
I don't have a link, and the money situation with the contract makes no sense to me, but I just spoke to a friend whose brother works in the Reds scouting department and he told me that his brother said the team has at least inquired as to Seattles' interest in possibly dealing King Felix saying that if the team, "...was going to go big, they'd like to make a big splash." He also said that Hanley Ramirez's name was mentioned. Again, the contract situation makes me think that it's not plausible, even with Cordero coming off the books next year with a $1 million buyout. Both these players make crazy money.

And neither are available.

Joseph
07-28-2011, 10:48 PM
And neither are available.

Everyone's available for the right price.

savafan
07-28-2011, 10:49 PM
And neither are available.

Probably not, but you never know:

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/other_mlb/view.bg?articleid=1353655&srvc=sports&position=recent

jojo
07-28-2011, 10:53 PM
Everyone's available for the right price.

Votto, Bruce, Mes, and Wood might get a conversation started.

savafan
07-28-2011, 10:54 PM
Also:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ycn-8868141

Talking prospects, prospects, PROSPECTS!

hebroncougar
07-28-2011, 11:18 PM
Votto, Bruce, Mes, and Wood might get a conversation started.

And that is why the mariners continue to be clueless.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk

LoganBuck
07-28-2011, 11:24 PM
What did this JohnnSmith28 guy say? I must have missed something

camisadelgolf
07-28-2011, 11:30 PM
What did this JohnnSmith28 guy say? I must have missed something
He said Baker would be fired and Joe Morgan would be the interim GM. In the past, he has said a couple things that were partially true, so it's yet to be seen whether he's legit or not.

Scrap Irony
07-28-2011, 11:33 PM
It'd probably take Mesoraco, Stubbs, Bailey, and either Francisco or Alonso to make it happen. At least.

LoganBuck
07-28-2011, 11:39 PM
He said Baker would be fired and Joe Morgan would be the interim GM. In the past, he has said a couple things that were partially true, so it's yet to be seen whether he's legit or not.

More likely chance that the Bengals sign me to play cornerback.

LoganBuck
07-28-2011, 11:52 PM
Rangers are working on a backup plan B in case the Heath Bell trade falls through.

Cordero?

jojo
07-28-2011, 11:56 PM
And that is why the mariners continue to be clueless.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk

Because they dont give away one of the best players in the majors?

RichRed
07-28-2011, 11:56 PM
He said Baker would be fired and Joe Morgan would be the interim GM. In the past, he has said a couple things that were partially true, so it's yet to be seen whether he's legit or not.

My heart just skipped a beat, even though I know you meant manager, not GM.

wolfboy
07-29-2011, 12:02 AM
Votto, Bruce, Mes, and Wood might get a conversation started.

So a 7.3 WAR player plus Bruce plus the Reds top prospect plus Wood as a throw in just to start the conversation? For the guy that hasn't put up a 7 WAR season yet? The only place that's going to sound reasonable is with your fellow Mariners fans.

jojo
07-29-2011, 12:06 AM
So a 7.3 WAR player plus Bruce plus the Reds top prospect plus Wood as a throw in just to start the conversation? For the guy that hasn't put up a 7 WAR season yet? The only place that's going to sound reasonable is with your fellow Mariners fans.

hint: he's not available (but apparently everyone has a price).

smith288
07-29-2011, 12:34 AM
For the record, my name is Erick and I have no insider information. My Twitter account is smith288... or IS IT?!?!?!

camisadelgolf
07-29-2011, 05:12 AM
My heart just skipped a beat, even though I know you meant manager, not GM.
Oops. Good catch. I never did get in the habit of reading what I post. That probably explains why I have the record for most infractions on RedsZone.

RANDY IN INDY
07-29-2011, 10:20 AM
Looks like the losing streak has made the Reds rumor mill take a dive. Probably be standing pat.

OldXOhio
07-29-2011, 10:26 AM
Looks like the losing streak has made the Reds rumor mill take a dive. Probably be standing pat.

Walt has said all along he wasn't interested in rentals, so why should his enthusiasm to improve the team long term be dampened? The only difference now is you sell off parts like Ramon and Coco as well. I'd expect Walt to still use prospects to buy come Sunday.

PuffyPig
07-29-2011, 10:27 AM
Looks like the losing streak has made the Reds rumor mill take a dive. Probably be standing pat.

Probably makes sense.

The time to make a TOR starter trade is likely in the off season.

No use paying the extra cost in prospects for an extra two months of the TOR starter that is likely worthless.

RANDY IN INDY
07-29-2011, 10:29 AM
You're probably right, but it always seems like the Reds front office just waits for a reason to stand pat. Never seem to be aggressive at the right time.

PuffyPig
07-29-2011, 10:30 AM
I'd expect Walt to still use prospects to buy come Sunday.


Few non-rental players are traded at the deadline, as there is little motivation to do so.

Historically, these types of trade are made in the off season. The cost to acquire non-rental players is likely higher at the deadline.

smith288
07-29-2011, 10:32 AM
Ubaldo isn't a rental though. Wouldn't mind seeing him TOR next spring.

Kc61
07-29-2011, 10:46 AM
Probably makes sense.

The time to make a TOR starter trade is likely in the off season.

No use paying the extra cost in prospects for an extra two months of the TOR starter that is likely worthless.

Look, there are a few trading seasons in a year. This is one of them. The Reds should be aggressively looking to improve the team for next year.

They should not be passive. They should not sit still. Enough of that.

I don't want rentals, but there are other teams looking to move signed players.

The Reds should be players.

And no, I don't want them to make bad deals or seriously overpay or any of that. I can anticipate the responses.

The Reds have no left fielder. Their pitching is fair to poor. They have lots of tradable prospects. They have some young major league players who aren't doing so great and could be used in trades.

So let's not wait for another trade season to pass.

jojo
07-29-2011, 10:57 AM
Ubaldo isn't a rental though. Wouldn't mind seeing him TOR next spring.

His arm might have a short shelf life though.

PuffyPig
07-29-2011, 11:16 AM
Ubaldo isn't a rental though.

That's my point, few non-rental players are traded at the deadline (other than the return for rental players).

PuffyPig
07-29-2011, 11:26 AM
Look, there are a few trading seasons in a year. This is one of them. The Reds should be aggressively looking to improve the team for next year.

They should not be passive. They should not sit still. Enough of that.

I don't want rentals, but there are other teams looking to move signed players.

The Reds should be players.

And no, I don't want them to make bad deals or seriously overpay or any of that. I can anticipate the responses.

The Reds have no left fielder. Their pitching is fair to poor. They have lots of tradable prospects. They have some young major league players who aren't doing so great and could be used in trades.

So let's not wait for another trade season to pass.

Good points, except that the cost of trading for established players at the deadline is more costly than during the offseason.

Teams are looking to move signed players(Pence, Jiminez, Shields etc.) because it's perceived that they can make a killing at this time of year.

The players we should be looking to move is Cordero and Hernandez. If we send a prepaid Cordero someone's way, we could get a decent prospect.

I'm not saying that Walt should try and look at signed players, I just don't hold out much hope of completing a reasonable deal at this trade deadline for such a player. The selling team has no real motivation for making such a deal now unless someone overpays. I don't want to obtain a Jiminez type player "at all costs".

Look at what guys like Santana and Halladay went for in the off season. And look at what Jimenez is rumoured to cost. Apples and oranges. If we were in the pennant race, that might be different.

HotCorner
07-29-2011, 11:31 AM
I haven't seen him linked to the Reds but wouldn't Denard Span fill the role of leadoff hitter?


27 years old
Signed through 2015
Career ~ .360 OBP


Apparently the Twins are discussing him with the Nationals.

PuffyPig
07-29-2011, 11:42 AM
I haven't seen him linked to the Reds but wouldn't Denard Span fill the role of leadoff hitter?


27 years old
Signed through 2015
Career ~ .360 OBP


Apparently the Twins are discussing him with the Nationals.

The twins wanted Soren for him, Nats said no.

He's CF and carries a CF premium for cost.

HotCorner
07-29-2011, 11:42 AM
Now comes this ...



Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal

Sources: #Reds on #Astros' Bourn as well as Pence. Bourn FA after '12, Pence after '13. Pence is #Phillies' to lose. #tradedeadline #MLB

dunner13
07-29-2011, 11:53 AM
Ok I get trading for Pence but bourne? Where exactly is he going to be playing? Are we trading Drew Stubbs somewhere?

forfreelin04
07-29-2011, 12:01 PM
Ok I get trading for Pence but bourne? Where exactly is he going to be playing? Are we trading Drew Stubbs somewhere?

Can one of them not play left? Talk about Speed in the Outfield!

PuffyPig
07-29-2011, 12:02 PM
Ok I get trading for Pence but bourne? Where exactly is he going to be playing? Are we trading Drew Stubbs somewhere?


Any OF we get will play LF. Bourne would be our leadoff hitter.

SirFelixCat
07-29-2011, 12:06 PM
Any OF we get will play LF. Bourne would be our leadoff hitter.

Which then, in theory, would drop Stubbs to 6/7, which would take a lot of stress off of him, imo. While not prototypical for a LF'er, I could get on board with that idea, assuming the cost isn't great.:thumbup:

forfreelin04
07-29-2011, 12:08 PM
Any OF we get will play LF. Bourne would be our leadoff hitter.

OBP .337- Bourn
OBP .329- Stubbs

Not a huge difference.

I think its important that someone get on base at a better clip in front of Votto, but I think the bigger need is protection for Joey in the cleanup spot.

forfreelin04
07-29-2011, 12:12 PM
Which then, in theory, would drop Stubbs to 6/7, which would take a lot of stress off of him, imo. While not prototypical for a LF'er, I could get on board with that idea, assuming the cost isn't great.:thumbup:

I don't think its stress that bothers Stubbs, its technique... pure and simple.

He needs a decent hitting coach to teach him how to best use the tools he has. Choking up with 2 strikes would be a start. Pitch recognition would be the next lesson.

He has more talent IMO than Bruce from a pure athletic standpoint, but he hasn't been told to do the things necessary to utilize it. It's amazing to me that he's been forming the same bad habits through the minor leagues and he's never been forced to fix them.

PuffyPig
07-29-2011, 12:17 PM
OBP .337- Bourn
OBP .329- Stubbs

Not a huge difference.

I think its important that someone get on base at a better clip in front of Votto, but I think the bigger need is protection for Joey in the cleanup spot.

I wasn't advocating trading for him, just pointing out the thought process.

Bourne will be a FA after next season, so it would basically be 1 and done for us.

His OBA has trended upwards for the last 3 seasons, so he's more of a .350 guy now.

He would be costly to obtain at this time.

RedsManRick
07-29-2011, 12:35 PM
Bourn is a nice little player, but if you look at his track record, he wasn't productive until 2009. He doesn't hit for any power. He's got decent plate discipline, but mediocre contact ability.

When you break it down, 2009's production was based on a .366 BABIP and 2010 was based on a 19.4 UZR. His 2011 is based on a .381 BABIP.

Sure, he's fast, so he's going to have an elevated BABIP, but more along the lines of his career .341.

If you're worried about lineup construction he's a nice fit. And I'd certainly take him if he were cheap. But I certainly hope we don't have pay a ton for him, especially given that we'd have to shift him or Stubbs off CF, taking away some of their defensive value.

I'd much prefer Span, who is less dependent on his speed as he's a much better contact hitter.

Edd Roush
07-29-2011, 12:35 PM
OBP .337- Bourn
OBP .329- Stubbs

Not a huge difference.

I think its important that someone get on base at a better clip in front of Votto, but I think the bigger need is protection for Joey in the cleanup spot.

He is at .338 for his career, but this year he is at .367 and last year he was at .341 and the year before he was at .354. He is definitely trending the right way. I would not want him if he would not agree to a long-term contract. How much would he command on a four or five year contract? Would he get Denard Span money or even more?

I'm a big fan of Denard Span too. I would pay a premium for him since he is already signed through 2015. Storen is really good, but he is just a reliever. Would Minnesota be intereted in a Volquez for Span trade? Would that be a good trade for the Reds?

I really want a lead-off hitter, but if we get one to play left, we better hope Mes can bat clean-up.

Benihana
07-29-2011, 12:39 PM
He is at .338 for his career, but this year he is at .367 and last year he was at .341 and the year before he was at .354. He is definitely trending the right way. I would not want him if he would not agree to a long-term contract. How much would he command on a four or five year contract? Would he get Denard Span money or even more?

I'm a big fan of Denard Span too. I would pay a premium for him since he is already signed through 2015. Storen is really good, but he is just a reliever. Would Minnesota be intereted in a Volquez for Span trade? Would that be a good trade for the Reds?

I really want a lead-off hitter, but if we get one to play left, we better hope Mes can bat clean-up.


Agree with this. And I don't think Mez or Phillips are real clean-up hitters. Perhaps our future 3B can bat cleanup? I'd give Rolen a take it or leave it offer of the manager's job in the offseason and see what he decides. I'd obviously do it under the strictest confidence, which I think he would respect.

OldXOhio
07-29-2011, 12:41 PM
Ok I get trading for Pence but bourne? Where exactly is he going to be playing? Are we trading Drew Stubbs somewhere?

Fay says Stubbs is in the trade talks.

Edd Roush
07-29-2011, 12:46 PM
Fay says Stubbs is in the trade talks.

What would that deal look like?

mdccclxix
07-29-2011, 12:52 PM
Look out for Wandy in a deal too. Walt was inquiring on him last year, and possibly before as well. Stubbs and Wood for Wandy and Pence. Trading all that cost control for expensive players though. I don't know.

mace
07-29-2011, 12:55 PM
Fay says Stubbs is in the trade talks.

I'm probably in the distinct minority, but I think that Stubbs is a pretty good guy to deal. His talent is so tantalizing that it possibly increases his value to a level in excess of his production. To me, he's a microcosm of this year's Reds at large--a whole lot of physical talent that just doesn't seem to fit together. That said, I could also see him prospering with a change of scenery.

LoganBuck
07-29-2011, 12:55 PM
What would that deal look like?

My brothers roommate works.for.clippers. He heard a wild one last night:

Stubbs
Bailey
Wood
Plus two prospects

For
Bourn
Pence
Wandy

Houston apparently hurting for cash

Reds would trade Ramon to Giants for arm that Astros like

This guy is normally full of crap so consider source

mdccclxix
07-29-2011, 12:59 PM
I hate this Bourn talk. Keep me with Stubbs. Pence, ehh, he could produce at the same level as Phillips next year, we don't need that for 8+ million bucks. Wandy, that could be an albatross of a contract as well.

mdccclxix
07-29-2011, 01:10 PM
If the Phillies are talking guys in the low minors, why are we talking major league, cost controlled talent for Pence?

mdccclxix
07-29-2011, 01:31 PM
Rival teams expect to know the Rockies’ true intentions regarding Jimenez tomorrow, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney. If the sky-high asking price drops in the next day and a half, other teams will see the price reduction as a signal that Colorado intends to move Jimenez.

I feel it already has - from a Dickerson-type deal, to a real home run, to 2 major leaguers plus 3 prospects, to 4 top notch prospects, to now just 3 top prospects...I still don't think he'll be traded though.

PuffyPig
07-29-2011, 01:32 PM
If the Phillies are talking guys in the low minors, why are we talking major league, cost controlled talent for Pence?

"We" may be taking that, who knows what the Reds are talking about.

Getting any or all of Pence, Bourne and Rodriquez is 3 costly players who are FA's within 1-2 years.

And all may not be that much better than what we have, who are younger, cheaper, controlled for longer and may actually improve.

I have nothing against any of those 3 players per se, but I wouldn't give up anything close to the rumoured talent for them.

HokieRed
07-29-2011, 01:36 PM
Look out for Wandy in a deal too. Walt was inquiring on him last year, and possibly before as well. Stubbs and Wood for Wandy and Pence. Trading all that cost control for expensive players though. I don't know.

That would be a steal for us. Pray that's true.

icehole3
07-29-2011, 01:49 PM
wouldnt mind seeing all the Texas guys traded back home and see what type of haul it could bring

Bailey
Ondrusek
Janish
Stubbs
Bruce

what could you get for these guys

PuffyPig
07-29-2011, 01:52 PM
wouldnt mind seeing all the Texas guys traded back home and see what type of haul it could bring

Bailey
Ondrusek
Janish
Stubbs
Bruce

what could you get for these guys

Why wouldn't you mind this?

You'd be giving up a ton a cheap, cost controlled talent, and Houston really has no one in that category.

OldXOhio
07-29-2011, 01:53 PM
wouldnt mind seeing all the Texas guys traded back home and see what type of haul it could bring

Bailey
Ondrusek
Janish
Stubbs
Bruce

what could you get for these guys

I wouldn't consider that for either Texas team unless it involved a few of the Rangers top young arms.

OnBaseMachine
07-29-2011, 01:55 PM
From Jon Heyman:

#redsox aggressively pursuing of ubaldo. #indians, #reds, #jays also fit & r interested. #yankees lurking. #tradedeadline

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

icehole3
07-29-2011, 01:58 PM
Why wouldn't you mind this?

You'd be giving up a ton a cheap, cost controlled talent, and Houston really has no one in that category.

thats why Im asking, I know nothing about Houston minor league system, maybe I should ask someone on another board to get friendlier treatment :)

OldXOhio
07-29-2011, 02:02 PM
I feel it already has - from a Dickerson-type deal, to a real home run, to 2 major leaguers plus 3 prospects, to 4 top notch prospects, to now just 3 top prospects...I still don't think he'll be traded though.

I do. After posturing for a "Herschel Walker" type deal, O'Dowd has shown his hand. He wants to deal UJ, the other teams know it, Ubaldo knows it. I think there's a point of no turning back sometimes.

TRF
07-29-2011, 02:04 PM
JimBo answered my question. i feel all leathery...


Comment From Tommy
Alonso, Wood, Horst and Boxberger for Ubaldo. Does Colorado bite?

Jim Bowden: nibble

Swap Stubbs for Alonso, and I think that could do it. two guys with major league talent, and a future closer to replace Street, at AAA. plus Horst might be a setup guy.

OldXOhio
07-29-2011, 02:10 PM
What does Leather Pants know about pitching?

smith288
07-29-2011, 02:12 PM
WAY too much for Ubaldo. Alonso is untouchable. Feel better about Heisey going.

blumj
07-29-2011, 02:14 PM
From Jon Heyman:

#redsox aggressively pursuing of ubaldo. #indians, #reds, #jays also fit & r interested. #yankees lurking. #tradedeadline

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman
Why does Heyman want the Yankees to trade for Jimenez so badly? His agent isn't Scott Boras.

wolfboy
07-29-2011, 02:14 PM
Alonso is untouchable.

Alonso is untouchable?

Ron Madden
07-29-2011, 02:15 PM
wouldnt mind seeing all the Texas guys traded back home and see what type of haul it could bring

Bailey
Ondrusek
Janish
Stubbs
Bruce

what could you get for these guys

Wow.

Tony Cloninger
07-29-2011, 02:18 PM
Why does Heyman want the Yankees to trade for Jimenez so badly? His agent isn't Scott Boras.

I think it is a requirement that the Yankees must be involved in any rumored deal.

OldXOhio
07-29-2011, 02:23 PM
Alonso is untouchable?

No, not Alonso. Janish.

mdccclxix
07-29-2011, 02:25 PM
I do. After posturing for a "Herschel Walker" type deal, O'Dowd has shown his hand. He wants to deal UJ, the other teams know it, Ubaldo knows it. I think there's a point of no turning back sometimes.

Thanks, I was thinking, which running back was it again?

OldXOhio
07-29-2011, 02:31 PM
Thanks, I was thinking, which running back was it again?

Ha, I honestly wasn't sure what you meant by Dickerson. Resigned to thinking it was Chris.

Brutus
07-29-2011, 02:36 PM
Honestly, if they can somehow convince the Astros to do a Bourn/Pence package, it makes by far the most sense.

The Reds could still probably pull off a Shields trade. Then they'd have their leadoff hitter, a middle-of-the-order bat and their ace.

The Astros would be reluctant to trade Bourn and Pence in the same deal, I'm sure. But Stubbs makes a ton of sense for them and the Reds have enough players to pull that kind of deal off and still swing for Shields even without totally bankrupting the system.

icehole3
07-29-2011, 02:38 PM
the Cowboy loves James Shields, thinks he could do some damage in the NL

bucksfan2
07-29-2011, 02:47 PM
Honestly, if they can somehow convince the Astros to do a Bourn/Pence package, it makes by far the most sense.

The Reds could still probably pull off a Shields trade. Then they'd have their leadoff hitter, a middle-of-the-order bat and their ace.

The Astros would be reluctant to trade Bourn and Pence in the same deal, I'm sure. But Stubbs makes a ton of sense for them and the Reds have enough players to pull that kind of deal off and still swing for Shields even without totally bankrupting the system.

I like Stubbs the ball player but he is a player I would be looking to move. He has loads of talent but his high number of strikeouts is troublesome. He is on pace to strike out 30% of the time the steps to the plate. To me he is an enigma, he has blazing speed but poor contact rates. He has very good power but and could hit in the middle to lower of the order but he is likely a 20 HR a season guy. He is also a guy who whenever the Reds travel to Houston, the Astro's talk very kindly about and sometimes talk about how they missed on him. He is a guy who I would deal in order to get Pence in return. I am not a huge Bourn fan but he would solve the leadoff issues. Both Bourn and Pence have an OBP around .350 right now which would look real nice in the Reds order right now.

I would prefer a Ubaldo over Shields but think Shields would come cheaper. If you add Shields and Pence you would be taking on some salary but would be making the team better.

PuffyPig
07-29-2011, 02:56 PM
I think Pence is overpaid and overrated.

He's more Phillips with the bat than a middle of the order hitter.

He's controlled for two more year and will be very expensive in those two years. And is likely to give us a lower .800 OPS.

But he would certainly make us better, I'm just concerned about the cost of talent to acquire him.

Bourne will be cheaper to acquire but would only give us one full years before FA.

It all depends on what it takes to acquire them.

wolfboy
07-29-2011, 02:57 PM
No, not Alonso. Janish.

Pffft. Quit wasting everyone's time with the obvious.

_Sir_Charles_
07-29-2011, 02:59 PM
Look out for Wandy in a deal too. Walt was inquiring on him last year, and possibly before as well. Stubbs and Wood for Wandy and Pence. Trading all that cost control for expensive players though. I don't know.

You know, the more I think about it, the more a trade with the Astros makes sense. Their minor league system is pretty much dry. I bet we could swing a deal for MLB talent by giving up a bunch of AA or below guys. I mean a BUNCH. I know the Astros will want quality, but quantity is almost just as important for them.

But here's the catch...I just don't know if the Astros will even MAKE a deal...with anyone. When you consider that they're going through an ownership change right now...it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Ed Wade is going to be shown the door. Does the new owner want the lame duck GM shipping out his best players when he doesn't "officially" have any say in the deal? I really think the Astros stand pat for now and then wheel & deal in the off season once they've got the new front office in place.

But...if they ARE willing to make a deal...we're a good match.

Brutus
07-29-2011, 02:59 PM
From Ken Rosenthal on Twitter:


Another holdup in #Astros' Pence talks with #Phillies: Astros also trying to move Bourn, Wandy, B. Myers

OldXOhio
07-29-2011, 03:02 PM
Well at least HOU has finally come to their senses. Tear it down and start over with someone else's prospects, considering they have very few of their own.

mdccclxix
07-29-2011, 03:15 PM
FRIDAY: The Reds are “strongly mulling a sell-a-thon,” according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark.

It could still get wild...

klw
07-29-2011, 03:18 PM
You beat me to it.

Clubs that have spoken to the Reds report they're so discouraged by their four-game sweep by the Mets -- at home -- that they're strongly mulling a sell-a-thon, not a shopping spree. That might not apply to a player such as Jimenez, who is signed and under control through 2013. But if it's true, it's not a good development for a Rockies team that appeared to have targeted the Reds as a potentially perfect fit.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110729/ranking-mlb-trade-chips?campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

Brutus
07-29-2011, 03:21 PM
I don't think selling off precludes them from making a deal for Jimenez, Shields, Upton, etc.

After all, these are players that they would control through at least next season and in some cases beyond that. Since the Reds undoubtedly aren't concerned with their longer-term ability to compete, it makes no sense not to strike now on some of these players.

Other than Ramon and Cordero, there's not much to sell off without trading some of the core pieces that are under control for a while. Perhaps Phillips, but I don't think the Reds intend to do that.

klw
07-29-2011, 03:23 PM
I just started Part 2 of this thread as it seems like a good point to start afresh before we bump up against 1000 posts.

smith288
07-29-2011, 03:26 PM
Alonso is untouchable?
I dont want him moved. He's a beast. Just my personal opinion.... (untouchable is negotiable as always...but blow my socks off)

osuceltic
07-29-2011, 03:28 PM
Fay says Stubbs is in the trade talks.

I've had the feeling he was in the mix for Jiminez for a while. I think the Upton interest is more about finding a replacement for Stubbs than finding a left fielder.

wolfboy
07-29-2011, 03:28 PM
I dont want him moved. He's a beast. Just my personal opinion.... (untouchable is negotiable as always...but blow my socks off)

Gotcha. I think I want to see how he does in LF before I pass judgment.

kaldaniels
07-29-2011, 03:31 PM
I'd rather have Pence than Stubbs in the Red's outfield, but for the cost difference over the next 2 years (Pence has 2 yrs left before FA) I'd take Stubbs and try to spend the difference elsewhere.