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View Full Version : Should the Reds trade Votto? (blog post)



WVRed
07-19-2011, 11:55 PM
If we are out of the running come July 31st, instead of dealing Yonder Alonso, deal Votto and possibly get similar production out of Alonso in a couple of seasons, while filling holes on the team.

Or risk losing him to free agency in 2013

reds44
07-20-2011, 12:04 AM
I voted no only because hell no wasn't an option.

Homer Bailey
07-20-2011, 12:05 AM
I voted no only because hell no wasn't an option.

Awesome.

redsfaninbsg
07-20-2011, 12:07 AM
This is 2011, he's locked up for a couple more years. Why in the hell would you trade the reigning mvp when he's on the cheap?

Blitz Dorsey
07-20-2011, 12:14 AM
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

HeatherC1212
07-20-2011, 12:27 AM
I voted no only because hell no wasn't an option.

This :thumbup:

Boss-Hog
07-20-2011, 12:29 AM
Please do not start threads that have the primary purpose of driving traffic to your site/blog. If you'd like to discuss the topic here, that's fine, but our policy has always been to require the article be included in the initial post rather than simply a link. I have edited the original post accordingly.

WVRedsFan
07-20-2011, 01:09 AM
I voted no only because hell no wasn't an option.You make me proud 44. Triple heck no (I'm conservative, you know :))

Unassisted
07-20-2011, 01:35 AM
I am the "yes" vote, but I don't mean that Walt should be looking to deal him. Nobody on this 47-50 club should be untradable, as long as the return is reasonable. I don't have a deal in mind, but the Reds seem to be many pieces of the puzzle away from success. If Votto can secure 2-3 of those pieces, deal him.

RedFanAlways1966
07-20-2011, 08:15 AM
I might be asking for it, but...

Rumor (yes, we love these things) has it that Joey wants to play closer to home and be closer to his widowed mother. Obviously Toronto is close to home and that same rumor mill says he'd like to play there. He signed the deal with the REDS b/c it gave him financial security for a period of time when the "financial control" is/was not in his hands. Joey is a great hitter and we (and opposing pitchers/managers) all know this. It is probably safe to say that Joey is an average fielder, but nothing special and nothing bad.

So when Joey can become a FA, will he consider the REDS? And will Alonso Yonder still be waiting in the wings (obviously not). Alonso's hitting may not be Votto-like, but perhaps it can be pretty good. And perhaps the REDS can get some valuable players in return for Votto.

I do not see this discussion as a simple "no way thing". I like Votto on my fav team. But he plays a position that allows the REDS to explore these options. And the consideration that Votto does not want to stay in Cincy long-term may be believable.

Dan
07-20-2011, 08:24 AM
I am the "yes" vote, but I don't mean that Walt should be looking to deal him. Nobody on this 47-50 club should be untradable, as long as the return is reasonable. I don't have a deal in mind, but the Reds seem to be many pieces of the puzzle away from success. If Votto can secure 2-3 of those pieces, deal him.

This is how I feel. At this point I don't see Votto as untouchable, but at the same time I don't think they should be actively shopping him. But if the right offer came along (thinking 5-1 deal like the Indians got for Von Hayes way back in the day) I don't think they should turn it down.

membengal
07-20-2011, 08:38 AM
Just out of curiosity - and if Toronto is his ultimate destination, it might make sense to jumpstart that - would you, could you, Bautista and Drabek and another piece or two for Votto?

kbrake
07-20-2011, 08:41 AM
I might be asking for it, but...

Rumor (yes, we love these things) has it that Joey wants to play closer to home and be closer to his widowed mother. Obviously Toronto is close to home and that same rumor mill says he'd like to play there. He signed the deal with the REDS b/c it gave him financial security for a period of time when the "financial control" is/was not in his hands. Joey is a great hitter and we (and opposing pitchers/managers) all know this. It is probably safe to say that Joey is an average fielder, but nothing special and nothing bad.

So when Joey can become a FA, will he consider the REDS? And will Alonso Yonder still be waiting in the wings (obviously not). Alonso's hitting may not be Votto-like, but perhaps it can be pretty good. And perhaps the REDS can get some valuable players in return for Votto.

I do not see this discussion as a simple "no way thing". I like Votto on my fav team. But he plays a position that allows the REDS to explore these options. And the consideration that Votto does not want to stay in Cincy long-term may be believable.

I've never understood the Toronto talk. Doesn't Joey Votto live in Florida in the offseason? If he was so set on getting back to Toronto wouldn't he at least spend his free time there?

Red in Chicago
07-20-2011, 08:44 AM
Votto is a guy you build around, not trade for a couple of scraps (which you know we'd end up getting) to save cash. Big no.

Dan
07-20-2011, 08:46 AM
Just out of curiosity - and if Toronto is his ultimate destination, it might make sense to jumpstart that - would you, could you, Bautista and Drabek and another piece or two for Votto?

I would prefer Adam Lind, only because I don't think Toronto would discuss Bautista. Lind, Drabek, Lawrie, and someone like Eric Thames would do it, I think.

cumberlandreds
07-20-2011, 08:57 AM
You don't even considering trading him until 2013. Not then unless he has shown no promise of siging him to a long contract.

membengal
07-20-2011, 08:58 AM
I would prefer Adam Lind, only because I don't think Toronto would discuss Bautista. Lind, Drabek, Lawrie, and someone like Eric Thames would do it, I think.

Since we are in hypo land, I bet they would discuss Bautista. A chance to bring the reigning NL MVP and a Toronto native home?

Hypothetically, Bautista, Drabek, Lawrie and one other for Votto.

wolfboy
07-20-2011, 09:48 AM
Count me in as another write-in "hell no." I think the heat must be getting to people. :D

RedFanAlways1966
07-20-2011, 10:20 AM
I've never understood the Toronto talk. Doesn't Joey Votto live in Florida in the offseason? If he was so set on getting back to Toronto wouldn't he at least spend his free time there?

Good question. Playing for Toronto would give him at minimum 3 months of the year to be closer to his mother/family. And his family members could attend home games on a regular basis.

RedLegsToday
07-20-2011, 10:27 AM
Hypothetically, Bautista, Drabek, Lawrie and one other for Votto.

I don't know if this is just the heat getting to you, but, in a Bautista for Votto deal, the Reds would be the team adding players. Bautista is the new Babe Ruth. :D

Blitz Dorsey
07-20-2011, 10:33 AM
BTW, what part of Yonder Alonso's disappointing minor league stats leads anyone to believe he could even come close to matching the production of Votto? I know no one is suggesting that Alonso will be as good as Votto, but I'm saying it won't even be close. There would be a HUGE drop-off between the two players IMO. We're more than three years removed from Alonso getting drafted and he's still not producing in the minors like I'm sure the Reds brass had hoped. He's putting together his best minor league season for sure, but that's mostly because his previous seasons have been really bad (for his standards/expectations). Last year was largely excused because of the broken hand/wrist, but I've come to the conclusion that I'm going to be surprised if Yonder is anything more than an average MLB player. He'll have some good years, some bad years, some average years. In a word, nowhere near the zip code of Joey Votto.

However, I do fully believe the talk that Votto wants to play in Toronto one day. I've felt that way for a while now. They better be ready to back up the truck in terms of top prospects if they want him before the 2014 season begins.

klw
07-20-2011, 10:36 AM
I think moving Votto is something which should be looked at this offseason or next summer as opposed to this season. First step would be to have a frank discussion with him regarding whether he would sign a 3 year extension beyond 2013. This discussion should occur at the end of this season but before Fielder and Pujols are settled. The market for Fielder and Pujols will effect the market for Votto. Boston is set at first for the next couple of years. the Yankees have Tex but could easily slip him over to DH. The placement of Fielder and Pujols will reduce possible destinations for Votto but also potentially leave losers for their services in a weak position. The longer that Votto is under control for a potential new team will up the value that can be obtained for him. (Think of the discussions of what you would be willing to give up for a Reyes rental.)

If Votto is unwilling to do a 3 year extension this winter I think the Reds need to look at moving him. If they don't get enough then hold him and try again in the summer.

Blitz Dorsey
07-20-2011, 10:37 AM
Good question. Playing for Toronto would give him at minimum 3 months of the year to be closer to his mother/family. And his family members could attend home games on a regular basis.

Exactly. It would actually be the perfect way for a rich Canadian to live. Live in Canada during the summer (baseball season) ... and also have a house in Florida to live in during the winter months when the weather is below-0 north of the border.

MikeS21
07-20-2011, 04:55 PM
I voted yes. The closer it gets to his imminent departure date, the more his value goes down.

Other teams aren't stupid. They know they will not need to cough up very much talent if the Reds wait until they HAVE to move Votto. Right now, his value is highest because the Reds don't have to move him.

The Voice of IH
07-20-2011, 05:01 PM
I say we trade Alonso to Toronto, that way Votto has no where to go but to the Reds.

wolfboy
07-20-2011, 05:02 PM
I say we trade Alonso to Toronto, that way Votto has no where to go but to the Reds.

Devious. I like it. :D

REDREAD
07-20-2011, 05:09 PM
Can we just send a truck to Toronto, kidnap his mom, and move her to Cincy instead?

Votto is irreplacable. Only a loser franchise would trade him now.

redsmetz
07-20-2011, 05:48 PM
I don't think it's a given that Votto necessarily wants to go elsewhere when he's eligible for free agency. I know some here think that his not signing at LTC may mean that, I think he's a young man who just doesn't see the need to rush things. As he said, he couldn't imagine knowing what he'll be doing in 3 or 4 years. I understand it's a reasonable assumption people are making, I just think it's not a given. Hence, I don't feel the need to bail with the thought we stand to lose him some day. Certainly not at this early date.

Unassisted
07-20-2011, 06:32 PM
What if he's declining in value? Last season was an MVP season. This season appears not to be. If his performance next season is even less, won't the Reds have missed an opportunity to sell high?

WVRed
07-20-2011, 08:21 PM
I actually considered a "Hell No" when I started the thread.:D

I agree with Unassisted in that I wouldn't label any player on the Reds as untouchable. There are players though who you would have to pay three prices for, those two are Votto and Bruce.

If the Reds didn't have Alonso waiting in the wings, I wouldn't even have made the post. I don't think Alonso would put up MVP caliber numbers, but I don't think he would hurt the Reds either, especially in 2-3 years. As for his numbers this year, Votto had ups and downs in the minors as well. Some of that could be attributed to the position change.

The trade proposal I suggested is Joey Votto and Chris Heisey to the Angels for Mike Trout, Hank Conger, and two pitchers to be named later. Trout is one of the top prospects in the game along with Bryce Harper and I think would be a budding star in the offense. Conger is a catching prospect who could allow the Reds to continue the platoon and use him with Mesoraco.

For the record, I wouldn't trade Votto unless we got a top 5 prospect coming back and other major league ready players. Mike Trout happens to fit one of the Reds weaknesses moving forward in the outfield.

Caveat Emperor
07-20-2011, 08:35 PM
Votto has made it pretty clear he doesn't want to be in Cincinnati long-term. Any discussion of Votto's future has to include the caveat that he isn't staying past his deal. His value diminishes with every passing PA if the ultimate goal is to trade him.

mbgrayson
07-20-2011, 08:39 PM
BTW, what part of Yonder Alonso's disappointing minor league stats leads anyone to believe he could even come close to matching the production of Votto? I know no one is suggesting that Alonso will be as good as Votto, but I'm saying it won't even be close. There would be a HUGE drop-off between the two players IMO. We're more than three years removed from Alonso getting drafted and he's still not producing in the minors like I'm sure the Reds brass had hoped. He's putting together his best minor league season for sure, but that's mostly because his previous seasons have been really bad (for his standards/expectations). Last year was largely excused because of the broken hand/wrist, but I've come to the conclusion that I'm going to be surprised if Yonder is anything more than an average MLB player. He'll have some good years, some bad years, some average years. In a word, nowhere near the zip code of Joey Votto.


Your post got me thinking, how do Alonso's AAA numbers compare to Votto's old AAA numbers:

Votto 2007 at Louisville, age 23: .294/.381/.478 for an OPS of .859, with 22 HRs in 566 plate appearances.

Alonso 2011 at Louisville, age 24: .302/.382/.498 for an OPS of .882, with 11 HRs in 375 plate appearances (to date).

The numbers are close except that Votto has the edge in HRs. This was closer than I would have thought.

I voted 'No' on trading Votto, but the problem we face is that Alonso is less of a proven MLB quantity than Joey, and will bring less in trade. Yet looking at the numbers, Alonso looks pretty good. He might look pretty good in left-field too, at least offensively.

IslandRed
07-20-2011, 10:02 PM
Votto has made it pretty clear he doesn't want to be in Cincinnati long-term. Any discussion of Votto's future has to include the caveat that he isn't staying past his deal. His value diminishes with every passing PA if the ultimate goal is to trade him.

Which raises the question -- why would that be the ultimate goal?

Yes, there are circumstances where trading him could become a viable strategy. Those are downstream from Plan A, which is for him to help us win big while he's still here. If we can trade him for even more than he's giving us, fine. If we've figured out we won't win anything before he walks, fine. Until then...

If the Reds look like a possible World Series team going into 2013, the only good reason to trade Votto is to make that even more possible. Selling high, getting something before he walks -- those would be putting the means ahead of the end, in my book.

Brutus
07-20-2011, 10:08 PM
Votto has made it pretty clear he doesn't want to be in Cincinnati long-term. Any discussion of Votto's future has to include the caveat that he isn't staying past his deal. His value diminishes with every passing PA if the ultimate goal is to trade him.

When has he made that clear?

The only thing he's made clear, in my opinion, is that he doesn't know where he wants to be long-term.

I don't think it's accurate he doesn't want to be in Cincinnati. I think it's more accurate he hasn't wanted to commit anywhere beyond those years.

I truly believe it's just as he said: he just isn't ready to make a commitment.

Patrick Bateman
07-20-2011, 10:15 PM
When has he made that clear?

The only thing he's made clear, in my opinion, is that he doesn't know where he wants to be long-term.

I don't think it's accurate he doesn't want to be in Cincinnati. I think it's more accurate he hasn't wanted to commit anywhere beyond those years.

I truly believe it's just as he said: he just isn't ready to make a commitment.

I think that's mostly true, but for a player to say that is almost like a guy saying that about his girlfriend. Having some fun until something better comes along. In this case, he's getting his money now and has no choice.

Most cases, he doesn't want to commit because it's not what he ultimately wants. If doesn't want to commit within a few years, he likely wont unless the Reds give him an offer he can't refuse.

Brutus
07-20-2011, 10:29 PM
I think that's mostly true, but for a player to say that is almost like a guy saying that about his girlfriend. Having some fun until something better comes along. In this case, he's getting his money now and has no choice.

Most cases, he doesn't want to commit because it's not what he ultimately wants. If doesn't want to commit within a few years, he likely wont unless the Reds give him an offer he can't refuse.

Yeah I agree with this. I think this offseason will be more telling. If he doesn't want to commit after this year, the Reds are going to have to start entertaining the notion of trading him.

mth123
07-20-2011, 10:34 PM
1. Votto is a centerpiece player. Replacing him isn't just getting a 1B that can hit, its getting one of the handful of players that you can actually build a line-up around. Chances are no one in the system is that guy so putting a guy in a holding pattern for 3 years makes no sense.

2. Keeping him around is going to involve actually going all in to win and not playing it safe.

3. That means making Alonso avaialble to improve the team however possible.

4. Ride Votto until he leaves and don't close the window early by dealing him.

5. Its possible that Neftali Soto or, more likely, Juan Duran is the actual heir to Joey anyway. The timing isn't right for Alonso. Get him in LF or get what you can for him to maximize the team's chances while Votto is still here and don't sweat it.

REDblooded
07-20-2011, 11:17 PM
If you could strike up a deal of say:

Reds offer:
Votto
Heisey

Yankees offer:
Granderson
Banuelos
Betances
Sanchez or Montero

Do you still hang up, or do you listen?

mth123
07-20-2011, 11:19 PM
If you could strike up a deal of say:

Reds offer:
Votto
Heisey

Yankees offer:
Granderson
Banuelos
Betances
Sanchez or Montero

Do you still hang up, or do you listen?

Hang up.

REDblooded
07-20-2011, 11:44 PM
Hang up.


Why?

You don't suffer much drop-off offensively by replacing the Heisey/Gomes platoon with Granderson and using Alonso at 1b, and you add two phenomenal young arms to your system...

If you can somehow convince the Yankees to take Arroyo and his future contract in the deal, it quickly becomes a no-brainer... Even if you remove the addition of Sanchez or Montero in order to get the Yankees to take Arroyo...

reds44
07-21-2011, 12:02 AM
Make the Votto trade stuff stop.

CySeymour
07-21-2011, 12:07 AM
Why?


Simple. With what the Yankees would be sending back, you MAY get major league level production from those players. With Votto, you ARE getting major league MVP level production.

REDblooded
07-21-2011, 12:24 AM
Simple. With what the Yankees would be sending back, you MAY get major league level production from those players. With Votto, you ARE getting major league MVP level production.

Granderson is .271/.365/.931 this season with 25 HR's and 18 sb.

The offset between him and Votto is Votto being under contract for an extra season...

Is it possible we're just overvaluing our own? Because the gap between Votto and Alonso is likely MUCH more narrow than the gap between Granderson and what we currently have in LF...

CySeymour
07-21-2011, 12:26 AM
]Is it possible we're just overvaluing our own? Because the gap between Votto and Alonso is likely MUCH more narrow than the gap between Granderson and what we currently have in LF...

Or, Alonso could come to the bigs and totally wiff. You really don't know.

REDblooded
07-21-2011, 12:33 AM
Or, Alonso could come to the bigs and totally wiff. You really don't know.

Doubtful. At least to the point that he has no value...

Are you even remotely familiar with Betances and Banuelos? If they were in the Reds organization they'd be our 2 and 3 prospects behind Mesoraco, and not by much...

Edit:

Betances: 23 years old 6'8" 260 RHP, 93 K in 80.2 IP... .290 ERA with a 1.3 GO/FO
Banuelos: 20 years old, LHP, 86 K in 84 IP with a 3.64 ERA... Being used as a starter with RP as his ultimate destination... Lefties 1.54 against him...

CySeymour
07-21-2011, 12:38 AM
Doubtful. At least to the point that he has no value...

Are you even remotely familiar with Betances and Banuelos? If they were in the Reds organization they'd be our 2 and 3 prospects behind Mesoraco, and not by much...

Yeah, somewhat. But we are just coming from two different points of view. I prefer keeping a known, MVP asset that is under contract for a few more years then role the dice on those that have not proven themselves yet at the big league level. If Votto was entering a walk year next year or if the team was still years away form contending, then yeah, I'd consider it. But the Reds aren't in that position right now.

REDblooded
07-21-2011, 12:48 AM
Yeah, somewhat. But we are just coming from two different points of view. I prefer keeping a known, MVP asset that is under contract for a few more years then role the dice on those that have not proven themselves yet at the big league level. If Votto was entering a walk year next year or if the team was still years away form contending, then yeah, I'd consider it. But the Reds aren't in that position right now.

I think you're underrating Granderson just a touch...



Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2011 30 NYY AL 93 411 350 84 95 12 8 25 68 18 7 49 96 .271 .365 .566 .931 149 198 7 5 3 4 0 *8/D AS
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grandcu01.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#batting_standard)
Generated 7/20/2011.



Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2011 27 CIN NL 96 432 359 59 115 21 2 13 57 6 4 67 76 .320 .431 .499 .929 155 179 12 4 0 2 7 *3 AS
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#batting_standard)
Generated 7/20/2011.

CySeymour
07-21-2011, 12:52 AM
I think you're underrating Granderson just a touch...


Not at all. I understand how good he is, no question.

But, like I said, you don't know how good the minor leaguers pan out at the big league level. So then, it basically becomes trading Votto for Granderson. What is the point of that?

REDblooded
07-21-2011, 01:03 AM
Not at all. I understand how good he is, no question.

But, like I said, you don't know how good the minor leaguers pan out at the big league level. So then, it basically becomes trading Votto for Granderson. What is the point of that?


If prospects have no value, and the Reds have no plans on trading Votto/Phillips/Bruce/Cueto/Chapman this season, then what hopes do the Reds have to improve this season?

CySeymour
07-21-2011, 01:06 AM
If prospects have no value, and the Reds have no plans on trading Votto/Phillips/Bruce/Cueto/Chapman this season, then what hopes do the Reds have to improve this season?

They don't, but why trade Votto at this point for prospects is my point. In reality, your way may be best, but I am viewing it in a different light. If we were the Astros and had Votto and were years away from contending, then yeah, deal him. But the Reds are trying to contend now.

corkedbat
07-21-2011, 01:09 AM
I would lean to the "Hell NO," side myself, exception in one very certain circumstnace at this point.

The first thing that needs to be addressed by the Reds brain trust before thinking of dealing Joey is answering two simple questions and answer them right now (if they haven't already been answered).

1) What level of confidence does the organization have that they can reasonably expect to sign Joey to another contract?

2) How confident are they that Joey is actually amienable to signing such an extension w/o testing the market?

If they believe that the answer to both is fairly likely or better, then they need to get to work on it and get it done in the next 12 months.

If the answer to either or both is probably or defintely not. Then you start drilliing serious "test wells" with other clubs.

If the likelihood is deemed negligble, they should have one rule for dealing him now, with 2 1/2 years of control left. You make at least THREE positions markedly better. You must leave the other GM sobbing in his pillow after he realizes what he parted with.

I'd want two major leaguers already all-star caliber and a top prospect I like VERY much (next year it becomes one all-star and two top prospect and the year after all prospects).

I'm gonna use the Dodgers here as a hypothetical partner - I'm not trying to debate if they would do it or if Joey is worth it or anything like that - just illustrating the point.

If a team were to offer Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp and a 3B with pop, an offensively gifted MI OR a stud LH reliever to take Chapman's spot when he moves to the rotation, I'd do it right now and start the Yonder era at 1B. Of course, I'm not saying Joey straight up, but I am saying the package wouldn't include any of our top pieces like Mes, Grandal, Cueto, Chapman, etc. It probably isn't doable, but something to good to be true is what it would take me to consider a deal for JV right now. As I said, the price goes down as time goes by.

Toronto is of course would be the first franchise I called, but Joey probably wouldn't appreciate what was left to play around him after I stopped stripping that franchise to make a deal for him right now.

1 Big League All-Star = 2 solid Big league starts at a spot we need
1 A-S Big Leaguer = 2 Top prospects and one solid MiL prospect
1 Solid Big League starter = 1 Top Prospect and one solid prospect
1 Top prospect = Two solid prospects

I'd take Top prospects in a deal regardless of whether they really fill a need or not. They can always be used to deal from strength an facilitate another deal(s).

REDblooded
07-21-2011, 01:29 AM
They don't, but why trade Votto at this point for prospects is my point. In reality, your way may be best, but I am viewing it in a different light. If we were the Astros and had Votto and were years away from contending, then yeah, deal him. But the Reds are trying to contend now.

I'm pretty close to beating my head against the wall...

You would not be trading Votto for prospects alone in this purely hypothetical scenario...

You would be trading him for a near equal offensively PLUS 2 top 25 prospects...

How this is a proposed swap of Votto for just prospects is beyond me...
That's the point. You could potentially move Votto with little to no drop off with a guy like Granderson AND strengthen your organization at the same time.

Upside to the Yankees is moving Posada from the daily DH role and gaining the extra year under contract that Votto holds currently...

Reds get a player in his prime signed for one more season plus two EXTREMELY high upside arms.

mth123
07-21-2011, 02:23 AM
Why?

You don't suffer much drop-off offensively by replacing the Heisey/Gomes platoon with Granderson and using Alonso at 1b, and you add two phenomenal young arms to your system...

If you can somehow convince the Yankees to take Arroyo and his future contract in the deal, it quickly becomes a no-brainer... Even if you remove the addition of Sanchez or Montero in order to get the Yankees to take Arroyo...

Votto is a centerpiece player. None of those guys in your deal back is. You want to deal Votto? There is a short list of guys I'd need back, otherwise I'd keep him. Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Asdrubel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista maybe a few others.

REDblooded
07-21-2011, 02:30 AM
Votto is a centerpiece player. None of those guys in your deal back is. You want to deal Votto? There is a short list of guys I'd need back, otherwise I'd keep him. Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Asdrubel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista maybe a few others.

There are multiple guys on your list that are only under contract for the remainder of this season... Many more are being paid WELL over what the Reds can afford.

This isn't fantasy baseball.

mth123
07-21-2011, 02:52 AM
There are multiple guys on your list that are only under contract for the remainder of this season... Many more are being paid WELL over what the Reds can afford.

This isn't fantasy baseball.

No kidding. That's why I'm back to keeping Votto until he leaves on his own. I don't want to rebuild again. I want to win it all by 2013 and extend Votto. I have a different opinion on how huge the effect on the line-up will be if Votto is removed. I'd rather deal Alonso and add to the roster while Votto is still here rather than taking the considerable step backwards by moving from Votto to Alonso.

If the Reds were in rebuild mode like they were in say 2007, your deal would be exactly what I'd have in mind. I like Granderson a lot, but IMO he's a complementary player having a career year and not a centerpiece.

reds44
07-21-2011, 03:08 AM
This just boggles my mind. It just boggles it. How could anybody seriously even consider this?

The Reds have Joey Votto, the MVP of the National League. He's not good, he's not really good, he's a great player. He has very few, if any flaws as a hitter. He always gives good AB and he is putting up numbers. He's a great player.

Has Joey Votto said he wants to back after his deal? No. He hasn't. Has Joey Votto said he doesn't want to be back after his deal? No, he hasn't. You know what probably has a lot to do with that? The fact that he just signed a three year contract extension in the offseason.

We have Joey Votto LOCKED UP for 2 more years plus 62 games. This isn't a conversation to have now, it isn't a conversation to have next year, it's a conversation to have in a year, it's a conversation to have in two years.

Joey Votto is not going to give the Reds a home town discount, nor should he. Assuming he continues to produce like he has, he should go to whatever team gives him the most money with the best chance to win. In July of 2013, if the Reds don't feel like they can give Joey the most money and a chance to win and they think he is going to walk in free agency, then you think about trading him. I, for one, will think the Reds do everything in their power to re-sign Votto, but that doesn't even matter right now. Lets just say the Reds literally cannot re-sign Joey Votto because God won't allow it, this still isn't a conversation to have until July of 2013.

I do not care about Yonder Alosno. He is a prospect. He has absolutely no effect on what the Reds do with Joey Votto. None. Zero. Zip. You don't think about trading Votto right now because you're afraid he will walk in free agency and oh gee we have Yonder Alonso here right now. No. Joey Votto is a bonafide top player in all of baseball. Yonder Alonso is a prospect. A good prospect, but a still a prospect.

Hypothetically lets say the Reds were to try to move Joey Votto right now. To get a player as good as Joey Votto RIGHT NOW, you're going to be taking on more salary than Joey Votto is making. So throw that one out the window. And you're going to tell me the Reds are going to trade the reigning MVP who they have under control for 2+ years, while they are 4.5 games out of first, for a bunch of prospects? Not going to happen, nor should it.

Curtis Granderson? Dude is a good player, but his career OPS is .120 points south of Votto, he's 3 years older, he is due $25 mil over the next two years (Votto is due an entire 2 million more), and oh yeah he becomes a free agent the same year Votto does. So you're going to trade him for a package around a guy who is older, makes the same amount of money, isn't as good at baseball, and also becomes a free agent the same time the guy you want to trade because you're afraid he's going to leave in free agency? It doesn't make sense.

You make yourself worse now, Granderson most likely gets overpaid by the Angels and turns into Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, and Gary Matthews Jr and the prospects, at best, turn into guys who aren't as good as Joey Votto. Oh yeah, the Yankees top prospect is a catcher, a position the Reds are LOADED at in the minors right now.

There is no logical reason to trade Joey Votto right now. None.

Dan
07-21-2011, 09:17 AM
I'm pretty close to beating my head against the wall...

You would not be trading Votto for prospects alone in this purely hypothetical scenario...

You would be trading him for a near equal offensively PLUS 2 top 25 prospects...

How this is a proposed swap of Votto for just prospects is beyond me...
That's the point. You could potentially move Votto with little to no drop off with a guy like Granderson AND strengthen your organization at the same time.

Upside to the Yankees is moving Posada from the daily DH role and gaining the extra year under contract that Votto holds currently...

Reds get a player in his prime signed for one more season plus two EXTREMELY high upside arms.

Votto for Adam Lind, Brett Lawrie, and Eric Thames

Caveat Emperor
07-21-2011, 09:32 AM
Make the Votto trade stuff stop.

You can bury your head in the sand and pretend it isn't true, but the reality of the situation is that Joey Votto told the team "No" when they tried to explore the possibility of a deal that bought out any of his FA years. When directly asked about the situation, Votto said "I don't know where I want to be long term." I'm not an expert at reading between the lines, but compare the answers Votto has given on his future to the answers that Brandon Phillips has given or even Arroyo.

So, unless you think the Reds are going to outbid everyone else on the open market (potentially overbidding to keep him away from a bigger market or his home in Toronto) -- a contract which could easily go to the tune of $20m+ per year -- I think you have to accept the fact that Joey Votto is probably not going to be a Red after 2013.

If you trade Votto in 2013, you get "rent a player" return for him.
If you trade Votto in 2012, you might get quality value for him.
If you trade Votto now, you could potentially get a haul of prospects and quality talent.

It's a fair question to ask.

nemesis
07-21-2011, 09:43 AM
If the Nationals backed up the truck and said we want Votto.

Here is Bryce Harper, Storen and Morse.

Do you do it?

WVRed
07-21-2011, 11:05 AM
If the Nationals backed up the truck and said we want Votto.

Here is Bryce Harper, Storen and Morse.

Do you do it?

Absolutely and I don't lose any sleep at night.

Ghosts of 1990
07-21-2011, 11:06 AM
No, not yet.

I think 2012 is the year we're going to make a realistic World Series run. You keep him at least until this time next year and if we're looking like a playoff team next year you keep him for all of next year. If we're treading water next year, yes, you have to look at trading him if he's not going to re-sign or at least consider it.

klw
07-21-2011, 11:13 AM
Well here is another question:

Should the Reds trade Brandon Phillips if they can't extend him in the next week? If so, what return would you demand? He would certainly have some value as both a bat and glove. Having a team option would make him more desirable than a rental for the buyer.

Caveat Emperor
07-21-2011, 12:19 PM
If the Nationals backed up the truck and said we want Votto.

Here is Bryce Harper, Storen and Morse.

Do you do it?

If the Nationals say "Here's Bryce Harper and a B-Prospect" I still might consider doing it. Votto's an exceptional ballplayer, but they're talking about Harper as a once-in-a-generation player.

Dan
07-21-2011, 12:28 PM
If the Nationals say "Here's Bryce Harper and a B-Prospect" I still might consider doing it. Votto's an exceptional ballplayer, but they're talking about Harper as a once-in-a-generation player.

This is how I see it. Might even consider it straight up.

cincrazy
07-21-2011, 12:30 PM
This just boggles my mind. It just boggles it. How could anybody seriously even consider this?

The Reds have Joey Votto, the MVP of the National League. He's not good, he's not really good, he's a great player. He has very few, if any flaws as a hitter. He always gives good AB and he is putting up numbers. He's a great player.

Has Joey Votto said he wants to back after his deal? No. He hasn't. Has Joey Votto said he doesn't want to be back after his deal? No, he hasn't. You know what probably has a lot to do with that? The fact that he just signed a three year contract extension in the offseason.

We have Joey Votto LOCKED UP for 2 more years plus 62 games. This isn't a conversation to have now, it isn't a conversation to have next year, it's a conversation to have in a year, it's a conversation to have in two years.

Joey Votto is not going to give the Reds a home town discount, nor should he. Assuming he continues to produce like he has, he should go to whatever team gives him the most money with the best chance to win. In July of 2013, if the Reds don't feel like they can give Joey the most money and a chance to win and they think he is going to walk in free agency, then you think about trading him. I, for one, will think the Reds do everything in their power to re-sign Votto, but that doesn't even matter right now. Lets just say the Reds literally cannot re-sign Joey Votto because God won't allow it, this still isn't a conversation to have until July of 2013.

I do not care about Yonder Alosno. He is a prospect. He has absolutely no effect on what the Reds do with Joey Votto. None. Zero. Zip. You don't think about trading Votto right now because you're afraid he will walk in free agency and oh gee we have Yonder Alonso here right now. No. Joey Votto is a bonafide top player in all of baseball. Yonder Alonso is a prospect. A good prospect, but a still a prospect.

Hypothetically lets say the Reds were to try to move Joey Votto right now. To get a player as good as Joey Votto RIGHT NOW, you're going to be taking on more salary than Joey Votto is making. So throw that one out the window. And you're going to tell me the Reds are going to trade the reigning MVP who they have under control for 2+ years, while they are 4.5 games out of first, for a bunch of prospects? Not going to happen, nor should it.

Curtis Granderson? Dude is a good player, but his career OPS is .120 points south of Votto, he's 3 years older, he is due $25 mil over the next two years (Votto is due an entire 2 million more), and oh yeah he becomes a free agent the same year Votto does. So you're going to trade him for a package around a guy who is older, makes the same amount of money, isn't as good at baseball, and also becomes a free agent the same time the guy you want to trade because you're afraid he's going to leave in free agency? It doesn't make sense.

You make yourself worse now, Granderson most likely gets overpaid by the Angels and turns into Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, and Gary Matthews Jr and the prospects, at best, turn into guys who aren't as good as Joey Votto. Oh yeah, the Yankees top prospect is a catcher, a position the Reds are LOADED at in the minors right now.

There is no logical reason to trade Joey Votto right now. None.

I wouldn't entertain the notion of trading Votto right NOW. But if it's July of 2012, this team still clearly isn't close to being "there" yet, and you're skeptical about your chances of resigning him, I see what's out there. I understand your perspective, but I also know that if we're going to trade him, we're going to get a hell of a lot more for him in July of 2012 than in July of 2013. Think of what the Rangers landed for Teixeira. If we could get a similar package for Votto, you'd have to consider. If, and ONLY if, this franchise was clearly stuck in the mud, and only if the front office knew without a shadow of a doubt it'd be virtually impossible to sign him long term.

corkedbat
07-21-2011, 05:10 PM
This just boggles my mind. It just boggles it. How could anybody seriously even consider this?

The Reds have Joey Votto, the MVP of the National League. He's not good, he's not really good, he's a great player. He has very few, if any flaws as a hitter. He always gives good AB and he is putting up numbers. He's a great player.

Has Joey Votto said he wants to back after his deal? No. He hasn't. Has Joey Votto said he doesn't want to be back after his deal? No, he hasn't. You know what probably has a lot to do with that? The fact that he just signed a three year contract extension in the offseason. We have Joey Votto LOCKED UP for 2 more years plus 62 games. This isn't a conversation to have now, it isn't a conversation to have next year, it's a conversation to have in a year, it's a conversation to have in two years.

Joey Votto is not going to give the Reds a home town discount, nor should he. Assuming he continues to produce like he has, he should go to whatever team gives him the most money with the best chance to win. In July of 2013, if the Reds don't feel like they can give Joey the most money and a chance to win and they think he is going to walk in free agency, then you think about trading him. I, for one, will think the Reds do everything in their power to re-sign Votto, but that doesn't even matter right now. Lets just say the Reds literally cannot re-sign Joey Votto because God won't allow it, this still isn't a conversation to have until July of 2013.

I do not care about Yonder Alosno. He is a prospect. He has absolutely no effect on what the Reds do with Joey Votto. None. Zero. Zip. You don't think about trading Votto right now because you're afraid he will walk in free agency and oh gee we have Yonder Alonso here right now. No. Joey Votto is a bonafide top player in all of baseball. Yonder Alonso is a prospect. A good prospect, but a still a prospect.

Hypothetically lets say the Reds were to try to move Joey Votto right now. To get a player as good as Joey Votto RIGHT NOW, you're going to be taking on more salary than Joey Votto is making. So throw that one out the window. And you're going to tell me the Reds are going to trade the reigning MVP who they have under control for 2+ years, while they are 4.5 games out of first, for a bunch of prospects? Not going to happen, nor should it.

Curtis Granderson? Dude is a good player, but his career OPS is .120 points south of Votto, he's 3 years older, he is due $25 mil over the next two years (Votto is due an entire 2 million more), and oh yeah he becomes a free agent the same year Votto does. So you're going to trade him for a package around a guy who is older, makes the same amount of money, isn't as good at baseball, and also becomes a free agent the same time the guy you want to trade because you're afraid he's going to leave in free agency? It doesn't make sense.

You make yourself worse now, Granderson most likely gets overpaid by the Angels and turns into Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, and Gary Matthews Jr and the prospects, at best, turn into guys who aren't as good as Joey Votto. Oh yeah, the Yankees top prospect is a catcher, a position the Reds are LOADED at in the minors right now.

There is no logical reason to trade Joey Votto right now. None.

You're right, he hasn't. Joey and his representation are too saavy to comeout and say something that stupid when he might be playing here for another three seasons. He has come out and said, I will be back" either. He has been vgaue and rightfully so. I have gotten the impression from various interviews/statements made that he does enjoy it in Cincy (which I truly believe), but he also leaves the door open for testing the FA waters (a smart move on his part, IMO).

This is where Walt (or any GM) earns the big money. As I've said, the Reds braintrust MUST determine their financial abiltiy to sign Joey longterm at a price he would accept and his intereset in signing a contract before testing FA. I believe they have a pretty good idea of what that is and personally, I believe his intent is to test the market.

I don't believe you can afford to let a talent like joey walk for nothing (or a couple of draft picks). You press him for a contract and if he doesn' want it you deal him at some point.

Right now, your asking price is outrageous, but that drops as each tradedeadline or offseason passes. At some point between now and the 2013 trade deadline you deal him if he can't be signed. The balancing act is between getting the most of his talent while you can and maimizing your return when he is dealt.

The first goal is to sign him longterm, but Walt should know whether it's likely or not and he needs to be ready to pull the trigger when the right deal is there.

corkedbat
07-21-2011, 05:29 PM
Well here is another question:

Should the Reds trade Brandon Phillips if they can't extend him in the next week? If so, what return would you demand? He would certainly have some value as both a bat and glove. Having a team option would make him more desirable than a rental for the buyer.

I'd lean toward not trading BP just yet because I don't think he'd bring near the return you'd get for Joey. I pick up his option next year, but definitely consider it at this point next year. If you deal BP this year, you have to receive a younger replacement for him in return (or in another deal).

In Joey's case, you don't deal him right now unless the deal makes you significantly better at two (preferrably three) other regular lineup or pitching stafff spots, plus, you have a decent candidate available to step into his spot (Yonder).

In Brandon's case, you would probably not be able to ask near as much and there is not an adequate obvious replacement in-house.

I think next year's trade dealine is the most likely time to deal either Joey or BP unless things change.

dougdirt
07-21-2011, 05:33 PM
I would consider trading Joey Votto, but it wouldn't be a trade to save cash. I would also not be expecting prospects in return. Sure, if there is a toss in prospect, fine. But you better get an absolute All Star in return for him along with other parts that can help you today at the big league level.

In the end, no one is untouchable. I am sure those that voted no would trade Joey Votto for Ubaldo Jiminez and Troy Tulowitzki if that was offered by the Rockies. Sure, they wouldn't offer it, but if they did, of course you don't say "no, we aren't trading Joey Votto".

steig
07-21-2011, 09:42 PM
I voted to trade Votto. I think this season is going to be more representative of his standard season rather than the numbers he put up last year. With the money that Pujols and Fielder are going to get in the offseason Votto will try to command something in perspective of their deals. I would trade him now only for a 'can't miss' prospect or an all star signed to a long term deal like Tulowitzki. Then bring up Alonso and give him a try and work on signing BP to a long term deal. It seems there are far fewer high caliber second basemen and shortstops in the game than first basemen.

dougdirt
07-21-2011, 09:46 PM
I voted to trade Votto. I think this season is going to be more representative of his standard season rather than the numbers he put up last year. With the money that Pujols and Fielder are going to get in the offseason Votto will try to command something in perspective of their deals. I would trade him now only for a 'can't miss' prospect or an all star signed to a long term deal like Tulowitzki. Then bring up Alonso and give him a try and work on signing BP to a long term deal. It seems there are far fewer high caliber second basemen and shortstops in the game than first basemen.

I wouldn't be extending Brandon Phillips. He is a good player, but all of his value comes from his defense. As a hitter, he four years away from his best season and has been in a decline since then offensively. He is also going to be on the wrong side of 30 starting next year. Those aren't the types of players I would go about extending for anything resembling solid amounts of money.

mth123
07-21-2011, 10:00 PM
I wouldn't be extending Brandon Phillips. He is a good player, but all of his value comes from his defense. As a hitter, he four years away from his best season and has been in a decline since then offensively. He is also going to be on the wrong side of 30 starting next year. Those aren't the types of players I would go about extending for anything resembling solid amounts of money.

I hear what you are saying and I wouldn't go $12 Million per year for multiple years either, but if defense is the Reds calling card these days (and its easily the strength of this team), Brandon Phillips is what makes that defense elite IMO. The Reds are very good at a lot of positions, but only Phillips ranks up there among the best I've ever seen.

The Reds have had a lot of very good defenders at second base in my life. Ron Oester was steady and sometimes spectacular. Tommy Helms and Bret Boone were gold glovers, Joe Morgan was a cut above them and the best in the game for a while. Brandon Phillips is better than all those guys by a wide margin IMO. Only Pokey Reese was in the same stratosphere with Phillips and he couldn't last the way Phillips has. I think the effect on this pitching staff will be huge after he's gone. I'd like to see them keep him until Torreyes or Hamilton is ready to take over.

dougdirt
07-21-2011, 10:02 PM
I hear what you are saying and I wouldn't go $12 Million per year for multiple years either, but if defense is the Reds calling card these days (and its easily the strength of this team), Brandon Phillips is what makes that defense elite IMO. The Reds are very good at a lot of positions, but only Phillips ranks up there among the best I've ever seen.

The Reds have had a lot of very good defenders at second base in my life. Ron Oester was steady and sometimes spectacular. Tommy Helms and Bret Boone were gold glovers, Joe Morgan was a cut above them and the best in the game for a while. Brandon Phillips is better than all those guys by a wide margin IMO. Only Pokey Reese was in the same stratosphere with Phillips and he couldn't last the way Phillips has. I think the effect on this pitching staff will be huge after he's gone. I'd like to see them keep him until Torreyes or Hamilton is ready to take over.

I am all for keeping Phillips, but I think he is going to get paid more than he is worth and I am not a fan of paying more for players than they are worth. Pick up his option and buy another year to figure out what to do... but I wouldn't be extending him.

mth123
07-21-2011, 10:09 PM
I am all for keeping Phillips, but I think he is going to get paid more than he is worth and I am not a fan of paying more for players than they are worth. Pick up his option and buy another year to figure out what to do... but I wouldn't be extending him.

I was hoping that Phillips would get the deal that Arroyo got with a bit of a discount from his current dollar amount and some deferred money to help things out, but it wasn't meant to be.

IMO, this is another reason that the window is now. The team will take a huge step back in its run prevention when Phillips leaves and there isn't a replacement that can offset that close enough to ready. It's one reason Torreyes stock has risen for me. He might be able to at least come closer than what we're likely to get for a while.

IslandRed
07-21-2011, 10:42 PM
I don't believe you can afford to let a talent like joey walk for nothing (or a couple of draft picks). You press him for a contract and if he doesn't want it you deal him at some point.

As a rule, that's not a bad idea, but sometimes more important things get in the way. The conventional wisdom over the last year or two was that the Rays had to deal Carl Crawford. Same arguments -- premium talent, small-market team, no way they'd re-sign him, couldn't afford to let him walk. In the end, they let him walk and got two draft picks out of it. Reason being, they had a team that could win and they needed him to do it. If given the choice, I doubt seriously they'd go back in time and take last year's division flag down for the sake of getting a little more for Crawford.

If a Votto trade makes the club better, great. If we're not going to win anyway before he leaves, cash him in then. But if we need him until the end of 2013, then we need him.

Blitz Dorsey
07-21-2011, 10:50 PM
For those waxing poetic about Curtis Granderson, you do know he's not "this" good, right? Posting Granderson's 2011 stats and saying "See, this is who he is" would be like saying Roger Maris' 1961 season was reflective of his overall career. Guys have fluky seasons. Like Maris in '61 ... and Granderson this year. (And the new Yankee Stadium being a complete bandbox helps C-Grand.)

steig
07-21-2011, 11:05 PM
I wouldn't be extending Brandon Phillips. He is a good player, but all of his value comes from his defense. As a hitter, he four years away from his best season and has been in a decline since then offensively. He is also going to be on the wrong side of 30 starting next year. Those aren't the types of players I would go about extending for anything resembling solid amounts of money.

I completely understand extending and signing players to LTD after the age of 30. Isn't Votto going to be 30 when he becomes a free agent? It seems like now would be the time to get him inked to a mid length deal but he doesn't want to sign into his FA years. So why not trade him when his stock is at its highest point.

corkedbat
07-22-2011, 11:16 AM
If you could strike up a deal of say:

Reds offer:
Votto
Heisey

Yankees offer:
Granderson
Banuelos
Betances
Sanchez or Montero

Do you still hang up, or do you listen?

I do that deal just to turn around and deal Montero to the Red Sox for Bryce Brentz and either Will Middlebrooks or Oscar Tejada. :lol:

Ghosts of 1990
07-22-2011, 11:29 AM
Nationals wouldn't do Harper for Votto straight up. They wouldn't even consider it.

Harper, Morse, Storen for Votto? How is that good for them?

Benihana
07-22-2011, 11:31 AM
Should the Reds trade Votto? No.

NEXT!